politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Fox News poll: Trump’s Republicans facing big set-backs in 201

This piece out by Pew shows how both parties are dominated by their more extreme supporters:

http://www.people-press.org/2017/10/24/political-typology-reveals-deep-fissures-on-the-right-and-left/

MTimT said:

This piece out by Pew shows how both parties are dominated by their more extreme supporters:

http://www.people-press.org/2017/10/24/political-typology-reveals-deep-fissures-on-the-right-and-left/

That is quite an interesting attitude survey by Pew Research. I come out as a Disaffected Demmocrat.

Traditionally the Dems have had a poor turnout in the midterms, but that might be different this time. Trump may find it difficult to get much done afterwards. Of course he can still sign his Executive Orders but more substantive stuff may fall by the wayside. He shows little enough inclination to work with Congress already.

3 more years of Trumpism to survivr. On these figures he is not getting re elected.

Fake news. Sad.

And if the Dems win the President will declare it as proof of electoral fraud.

Will nobody rid us of the turbulent priest?

foxinsoxuk said:

MTimT said:

This piece out by Pew shows how both parties are dominated by their more extreme supporters:

http://www.people-press.org/2017/10/24/political-typology-reveals-deep-fissures-on-the-right-and-left/

That is quite an interesting attitude survey by Pew Research. I come out as a Disaffected Demmocrat.

Traditionally the Dems have had a poor turnout in the midterms, but that might be different this time. Trump may find it difficult to get much done afterwards. Of course he can still sign his Executive Orders but more substantive stuff may fall by the wayside. He shows little enough inclination to work with Congress already.

3 more years of Trumpism to survivr. On these figures he is not getting re elected.

Odd. I did the questionnaire, but it did not calculate my position on the scale.

As always, I found it hard to answer this kind of binary question. For the majority of them, I thought both options were right.

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

The Republicans have dominated state senate (and gubnatorial) elections for some time, and this has meant they've been the ones in charge of redistricting. Losing the House of Representatives would be painful. Losing state races could have much longer term impacts.

Which govornerships are up in 2018?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_gubernatorial_elections,_2018

rcs1000 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

The Republicans have dominated state senate (and gubnatorial) elections for some time, and this has meant they've been the ones in charge of redistricting. Losing the House of Representatives would be painful. Losing state races could have much longer term impacts.

Which govornerships are up in 2018?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_gubernatorial_elections,_2018

Interesting to note only three of those races are put down as potential swaps, out of 39.

Surely if these numbers continue for Trump that's got to increase?

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

The Republicans have dominated state senate (and gubnatorial) elections for some time, and this has meant they've been the ones in charge of redistricting. Losing the House of Representatives would be painful. Losing state races could have much longer term impacts.

Which govornerships are up in 2018?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_gubernatorial_elections,_2018

Wow, that's a lot. If Trump screws the pooch for Republicans generally in 2018 we could see a real sea change in State level politics and the opportunity for a whole new generation of governors who could be potential candidates in 2020.

Can't see it making a difference for 2020. They would have in effect 18 months to make an impact and that's not really long enough for a provincial role.

For 2024 it might be significant.

But that's rather irrelevant if the Dems are only considered likely to make three gains!

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

The Republicans have dominated state senate (and gubnatorial) elections for some time, and this has meant they've been the ones in charge of redistricting. Losing the House of Representatives would be painful. Losing state races could have much longer term impacts.

Which govornerships are up in 2018?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_gubernatorial_elections,_2018

Wow, that's a lot. If Trump screws the pooch for Republicans generally in 2018 we could see a real sea change in State level politics and the opportunity for a whole new generation of governors who could be potential candidates in 2020.

Can't see it making a difference for 2020. They would have in effect 18 months to make an impact and that's not really long enough for a provincial role.

For 2024 it might be significant.

But that's rather irrelevant if the Dems are only considered likely to make three gains!

From that map the incumbent Republican is term limited in Florida, Ohio, New Mexico and Michigan amongst others. All key swing states where an incumbent governor would have a real advantage and big enough positions to get a national profile if the winner worked at it. Given the Republican advantage at State level normally most of these would be holds but if the disgust with Trump seen even in his own party yesterday grows things just might change.

RochdalePioneers said:

Trump has got to be the worst President for at least generations - I assume somewhere in the past there will be someone worse.

What makes me laugh is that for all that Trump is a preening self-obsessed paranoid liar, enough voters saw him as the least worst option vs Hillary Clinton. Which is somewhat damning of her...

Nixon. Although he's less competent than Nixon.

I was hearing yesterday that Trump is making progress with his tax code changes in the House which will allow a tax holiday of sorts which will in turn allow the tech giants to bring $1trn+ back to the US. If he delivers that and if the conditionality requires that money to be invested in the US writing Trump off in 2020 may well prove an expensive mistake.

An interesting piece on this just finished on Radio 4:

http://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/local-news/how-long-can-stand-jeremy-622839

Looks like Hunt is trying to blame the councils for some of the coming problems. Leics true blue Nick Rushton doesn't like being made the patsy.

ydoethur said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Trump has got to be the worst President for at least generations - I assume somewhere in the past there will be someone worse.

What makes me laugh is that for all that Trump is a preening self-obsessed paranoid liar, enough voters saw him as the least worst option vs Hillary Clinton. Which is somewhat damning of her...

It's richly ironic that this time last year we were all talking about how big a mess the Republicans were in and whether Dubya might even be their last president.

And six months ago there was a serious possibility that Labour might be reduced to around 150 seats.

Politics is crazy. Is the abysmal quality of our politicians - Trump and Clinton being basically similar in crucial respects, and May's weaknesses being exposed by a campaign that played to Corbyn's one strength - anything to do with it? Or is it just delayed reaction from the crash?

I think that most western economies have been running as a series of bubbles on cheap credit for pretty much all of this century. The levels of indebtedness this has incurred for individuals and countries greatly limits the options available to those in office who all too frequently find themselves not in power resulting in exasperation and disillusionment.

Keeping consumption even at existing levels is proving increasingly difficult as we are seeing with real wages here. The lack of real solutions results in charlatans like Trump and Corbyn getting more of a hearing than they should. After all the alternatives don't seem to have any real ideas either.

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Trump has got to be the worst President for at least generations - I assume somewhere in the past there will be someone worse.

What makes me laugh is that for all that Trump is a preening self-obsessed paranoid liar, enough voters saw him as the least worst option vs Hillary Clinton. Which is somewhat damning of her...

It's richly ironic that this time last year we were all talking about how big a mess the Republicans were in and whether Dubya might even be their last president.

And six months ago there was a serious possibility that Labour might be reduced to around 150 seats.

Politics is crazy. Is the abysmal quality of our politicians - Trump and Clinton being basically similar in crucial respects, and May's weaknesses being exposed by a campaign that played to Corbyn's one strength - anything to do with it? Or is it just delayed reaction from the crash?

Nothing to do with the crash; think both we and the Yanks have a low point in the political cycle at the same time.

But it's happening in a great many other countries too - France, Greece, Spain, India, Austria, Australia, New Zealand, Venezuela to name a few. That's why I was wondering if it's linked to the crash.

SquareRoot said:

The worst President that I have ever know is down in the polls.. Who'd have thunk it?
Meanwhile on BBC4 a brilliant programme on the Reformation/Cranmer and the Book of Common Prayer.
Oh and Spurs lose. Southam will be even more in the doldrums than usual... if that's possible.

tell him there's a drought warning, that'll cheer him up

Alanbrooke said:

TMerkel's troubles continue

CDU gets lowest poll rating for 5 years

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html

and coalition talks getting heated

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-jamaika-gespraeche-15264002.html

This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

TMerkel's troubles continue

CDU gets lowest poll rating for 5 years

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html

and coalition talks getting heated

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-jamaika-gespraeche-15264002.html

This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.

I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble

Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin

One significant difference though is that it has taken Merkel 12 years to reach this point. It took Theresa May slightly less than 12 months.

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

TMerkel's troubles continue

CDU gets lowest poll rating for 5 years

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html

and coalition talks getting heated

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-jamaika-gespraeche-15264002.html

This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.

I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble

Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin

Oh I agree with you but schadenfreude fails to recognise the consequences for us. We are at risk of not being able to find the person who can say yes.

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

TMerkel's troubles continue

CDU gets lowest poll rating for 5 years

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html

and coalition talks getting heated

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-jamaika-gespraeche-15264002.html

This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.

I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble

Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin

Oh I agree with you but schadenfreude fails to recognise the consequences for us. We are at risk of not being able to find the person who can say yes.

I dont know where you get the Schadenfreude from, Ive been saying Merkel is in trouble for some time against the backdrop of a greek chorus of PBers saying I am wrong. Pointing out uncomfortable issues doesnt mean I cant see the down side for us,

And that downside is as you point out the EU is completely rudderless. Juncker is a vacuous prima donna, Tusk a nobody, Macron lacks stature and Merkel is is standing on shifting sands.

Field Marshal - why so unfair to vacuous prima donnas?

Alanbrooke said:

ydoethur said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

TMerkel's troubles continue

CDU gets lowest poll rating for 5 years

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html

and coalition talks getting heated

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-jamaika-gespraeche-15264002.html

This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.

I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble

Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin

Oh I agree with you but schadenfreude fails to recognise the consequences for us. We are at risk of not being able to find the person who can say yes.

I dont know where you get the Schadenfreude from, Ive been saying Merkel is in trouble for some time against the backdrop of a greek chorus of PBers saying I am wrong. Pointing out uncomfortable issues doesnt mean I cant see the down side for us,

And that downside is as you point out the EU is completely rudderless. Juncker is a vacuous prima donna, Tusk a nobody, Macron lacks stature and Merkel is is standing on shifting sands.

Field Marshal - why so unfair to vacuous prima donnas?

I lived through the Blair era :-)

Even so, that's no reason to be comparing him to Juncker.

Bloodhound sounds quite tasty. From zero to 200mph will take 8s:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-41747995

Bit behind schedule, though.

Morris_Dancer said:

Bloodhound sounds quite tasty. From zero to 200mph will take 8s:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-41747995

Bit behind schedule, though.

I was a bit surprised to see rubber tyres on it, but I see they're only for show. I remember seeing that car at an early stage of development on some publicity gig or other - the funny thing about it is I found it was a lot smaller in reality than it looked in its photographs. I think that's because of how far away people were standing from it so they looked smaller in relation to it.

MikeSmithson said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

TMerkel's troubles continue

CDU gets lowest poll rating for 5 years

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html

and coalition talks getting heated

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-jamaika-gespraeche-15264002.html

This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.

I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble

Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin

The big difference is that the German Chancellor is a lot more competent than the British Prime Minister

You think inviting in the Middle East was competent ?

Followers of Trump's popularity ratings on Nate Silver's 538 chart will have noticed a downturn recently. I am not sure what has caused it. Seems to me he hasn't been behaving any worse than normal, but for some reason he's got down to 37.1%, not much above his all-time low of 36.6%.

Normally you'd say it was dangerous for a President to be below 40% but T defies normality every day. Even so, I should think if he gets down to 35% he will no longer be able to defy gravity.

foxinsoxuk said:

MTimT said:

This piece out by Pew shows how both parties are dominated by their more extreme supporters:

http://www.people-press.org/2017/10/24/political-typology-reveals-deep-fissures-on-the-right-and-left/

That is quite an interesting attitude survey by Pew Research. I come out as a disaffected democrat

Opportunity democrat for me

SquareRoot said:

The worst President that I have ever know is down in the polls.. Who'd have thunk it?
Meanwhile on BBC4 a brilliant programme on the Reformation/Cranmer and the Book of Common Prayer.
Oh and Spurs lose. Southam will be even more in the doldrums than usual... if that's possible.

There's been a lot of programs about the Reformation recently.

Probably because of the 600th aniiversay of Luther.

The Gunpowder series had several Brexit related phrases - I assume they were deliberate and that I'm not seeing Brexit everywhere.

Pong said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

If Trump's smart he'll give the UK a fantastic trade deal in return for Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill* going to 'help' the Democrat campaign.

*Think I got her name right...

Timothy and Hill were excellent. Two people who grasped what a bind the country was in and attempted to pursue a viable strategy to turn things around, delicately asking the country for a mandate to address some deep structural problems. Sadly, at the vital moment, the PCP demanded u-turns and chose to pander to the narrow interests of their client vote instead.

Whether or not they were right about the issues isn't the question. We all know, apart from certain people in the Labour Party who are unfortunately running things, that as a country even after ten years of belt tightening we still face painful, unpopular and difficult choices.

However, an election campaign really isn't the moment to unexpectedly spring controversial ideas on people. Even if they had been correctedly presented, rather than being seized on and twisted round by the opponents, the way to get unpopular but necessary things through is have a long discussion separately from party politics. That way you have a broad agreement that should survive changes of government.

To go after it in an election smacked of complacency in two ways: (1) it (correctly) assumed there was no way Corbyn could win and (2) it wrongly assumed that as a result the Conservatives would be in power for so long nobody would be able to undo their changes later. It wouldn't have gone down well even without the shrill opportunism of Corbyn and Lucas.

So whatever their merits, they were duff campaigners.

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Trump has got to be the worst President for at least generations - I assume somewhere in the past there will be someone worse.

What makes me laugh is that for all that Trump is a preening self-obsessed paranoid liar, enough voters saw him as the least worst option vs Hillary Clinton. Which is somewhat damning of her...

It's richly ironic that this time last year we were all talking about how big a mess the Republicans were in and whether Dubya might even be their last president.

And six months ago there was a serious possibility that Labour might be reduced to around 150 seats.

Politics is crazy. Is the abysmal quality of our politicians - Trump and Clinton being basically similar in crucial respects, and May's weaknesses being exposed by a campaign that played to Corbyn's one strength - anything to do with it? Or is it just delayed reaction from the crash?

I think that most western economies have been running as a series of bubbles on cheap credit for pretty much all of this century. The levels of indebtedness this has incurred for individuals and countries greatly limits the options available to those in office who all too frequently find themselves not in power resulting in exasperation and disillusionment.

Keeping consumption even at existing levels is proving increasingly difficult as we are seeing with real wages here. The lack of real solutions results in charlatans like Trump and Corbyn getting more of a hearing than they should. After all the alternatives don't seem to have any real ideas either.

Depressing but probably true.

Alanbrooke said:

MikeSmithson said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

TMerkel's troubles continue

CDU gets lowest poll rating for 5 years

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html

and coalition talks getting heated

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-jamaika-gespraeche-15264002.html

This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.

I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble

Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin

The big difference is that the German Chancellor is a lot more competent than the British Prime Minister

Really ?

she has screwed up the last 2 elections - the first by dissing the FDP thus forcing her into a coalition with the main oppostion, and the second by launching the AfD in to Parliament

only coalition politics is letting her remain chancellor

In truth German politicians are at the same low level as elsewhere in Europe.

Its the strength of German industry and the productivity of the German workforce which gives the country its strength - not the incompetents and lightweights in government.

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Trump has got to be the worst President for at least generations - I assume somewhere in the past there will be someone worse.

What makes me laugh is that for all that Trump is a preening self-obsessed paranoid liar, enough voters saw him as the least worst option vs Hillary Clinton. Which is somewhat damning of her...

It's richly ironic that this time last year we were all talking about how big a mess the Republicans were in and whether Dubya might even be their last president.

And six months ago there was a serious possibility that Labour might be reduced to around 150 seats.

Politics is crazy. Is the abysmal quality of our politicians - Trump and Clinton being basically similar in crucial respects, and May's weaknesses being exposed by a campaign that played to Corbyn's one strength - anything to do with it? Or is it just delayed reaction from the crash?

Nothing to do with the crash; think both we and the Yanks have a low point in the political cycle at the same time.

Of course it is to do with the crash and continued low wages and resentmemt at tge financial sector etc that is driving Corbyn and Sanders as much as immigration concerns drove Brexit and Trump.

ydoethur said:

Pong said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

If Trump's smart he'll give the UK a fantastic trade deal in return for Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill* going to 'help' the Democrat campaign.

*Think I got her name right...

Timothy and Hill were excellent. Two people who grasped what a bind the country was in and attempted to pursue a viable strategy to turn things around, delicately asking the country for a mandate to address some deep structural problems. Sadly, at the vital moment, the PCP demanded u-turns and chose to pander to the narrow interests of their client vote instead.

Whether or not they were right about the issues isn't the question. We all know, apart from certain people in the Labour Party who are unfortunately running things, that as a country even after ten years of belt tightening we still face painful, unpopular and difficult choices.

However, an election campaign really isn't the moment to unexpectedly spring controversial ideas on people. Even if they had been correctedly presented, rather than being seized on and twisted round by the opponents, the way to get unpopular but necessary things through is have a long discussion separately from party politics. That way you have a broad agreement that should survive changes of government.

To go after it in an election smacked of complacency in two ways: (1) it (correctly) assumed there was no way Corbyn could win and (2) it wrongly assumed that as a result the Conservatives would be in power for so long nobody would be able to undo their changes later. It wouldn't have gone down well even without the shrill opportunism of Corbyn and Lucas.

So whatever their merits, they were duff campaigners.

Ten years of 'belt tightening' has left the UK with retail sales and house prices at record highs, the largest current account deficit on record and approaching £2tr of government debt.

This will please some more than others:

https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/90109/eu-officials-limit-brexit-transition-20-months

ydoethur said:

Pong said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

If Trump's smart he'll give the UK a fantastic trade deal in return for Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill* going to 'help' the Democrat campaign.

*Think I got her name right...

Timothy and Hill were excellent. Two people who grasped what a bind the country was in and attempted to pursue a viable strategy to turn things around, delicately asking the country for a mandate to address some deep structural problems. Sadly, at the vital moment, the PCP demanded u-turns and chose to pander to the narrow interests of their client vote instead.

Whether or not they were right about the issues isn't the question. We all know, apart from certain people in the Labour Party who are unfortunately running things, that as a country even after ten years of belt tightening we still face painful, unpopular and difficult choices.

However, an election campaign really isn't the moment to unexpectedly spring controversial ideas on people. Even if they had been correctedly presented, rather than being seized on and twisted round by the opponents, the way to get unpopular but necessary things through is have a long discussion separately from party politics. That way you have a broad agreement that should survive changes of government.

To go after it in an election smacked of complacency in two ways: (1) it (correctly) assumed there was no way Corbyn could win and (2) it wrongly assumed that as a result the Conservatives would be in power for so long nobody would be able to undo their changes later. It wouldn't have gone down well even without the shrill opportunism of Corbyn and Lucas.

So whatever their merits, they were duff campaigners.

They had no option. They needed UKIP out the way in as many seats as possible. Any whiff of policies that would even slightly annoy the blue/purple client vote, pre-candidate deadline, would have screwed things up. That part of the strategy worked great.

The kippers took the bait.

The manifesto pivot almost worked.

Eventually, Downing Street disavowed their whip’s sinister project. They know as well as the rest of us what he was up to. Brexiteers had no use for experts during the referendum campaign and dismissed them as doomsayers and their warnings and projections as pessimistic and political. They got Brexit but it is not turning out to be the glorious liberation they imagined. Facts have intruded on rhetoric and suddenly sunny patriotism isn’t enough. Instead of acknowledging their folly, they hope to cajole the bearers of bad news into silence.

But academic malpractice and Lefty campus bias are red herrings in this debate. The Eurosceptic Right is throwing a tantrum because reality is refusing to come quietly and stop making a fuss. They don’t want ‘bias free’ lectures or objective teaching materials. They want a safe space for themselves, where their Brexit fantasies go unchallenged by awkward facts.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/10/the-eurosceptic-right-are-copying-the-snps-sinister-playbook/

Pong said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

If Trump's smart he'll give the UK a fantastic trade deal in return for Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill* going to 'help' the Democrat campaign.

*Think I got her name right...

Timothy and Hill were excellent. Two people who grasped what a bind the country was in and attempted to pursue a viable strategy to turn things around, delicately asking the country for a mandate to address some deep structural problems. Sadly, at the vital moment, the PCP/Conservateriat demanded u-turns and chose to pander to the narrow interests of their client vote instead.

Rubbish, it was their snubbing of the 'client vote' with the disastrous dementia tax policy and ending the triple lock and winter fuel allowance etc which cost May her majority.

Things have not gone as the people who led the Leave campaign in 2016 imagined they would, have they? The vote unexpectedly won, joyous dawns breaking, a new prime minister with a new mantra. They live by a set of propositions: the EU wants a deal as much as we do; it’s in their interests even more than it is in ours; trade deals are easy. As though winning a vote to go to war was somehow the same thing as fighting and winning the war. Berlin will fall by Christmas: it must do, we voted for it!

Soon it will be 18 months since the referendum and we’re not through phase one. We’re arguing about how long a transitional arrangement will last, which will take us to a final agreement we haven’t even articulated.

For a thwarted Leaver there are broadly two explanations for this failure: we were wrong about all that, or we were robbed.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/brexit-fundamentalists-are-the-enemy-within-736dt23kj

Hard border here we come?

World's Largest Ro-Ro Ferry to Be Introduced on Dublin Routes Linking Mainland Europe

https://afloat.ie/port-news/dublin-port/item/37536-world-s-largest-ro-ro-ferry-to-be-introduced-on-dublin-routes-linking-mainland-europe

CarlottaVance said:

Hard border here we come?

World's Largest Ro-Ro Ferry to Be Introduced on Dublin Routes Linking Mainland Europe

https://afloat.ie/port-news/dublin-port/item/37536-world-s-largest-ro-ro-ferry-to-be-introduced-on-dublin-routes-linking-mainland-europe

Massive - but not perhaps the most aesthetically pleasing!

https://goo.gl/images/FjhMsV

After yesterday's topical tip, I am going for Election Day in the 7.45 at Kempton this evening.

No, I'm not seeking out 'name' bets. I really do think it is value at 12/1, and just thought you might be amused by the coincidence.

DavidL said:

I was hearing yesterday that Trump is making progress with his tax code changes in the House which will allow a tax holiday of sorts which will in turn allow the tech giants to bring $1trn+ back to the US. If he delivers that and if the conditionality requires that money to be invested in the US writing Trump off in 2020 may well prove an expensive mistake.

This policy is the key to whether Trump’s administration is seen as a success or a failure.

There’s probably a million infrastructure jobs directly created by the tax money, plus numerous more from some of America’s largest companies being able to invest domestically in R&D and production.

If Trump can’t get this through, he’s the proverbial cooked bread in 2020 - but if he does get it through his odds of re-election are considerably higher than we’re all thinking now.

I suspect that the value, when these markets do become liquid, will be with the Republicans. British bettors seem to have Democrat hearts.

another_richard said:

SquareRoot said:

The worst President that I have ever know is down in the polls.. Who'd have thunk it?
Meanwhile on BBC4 a brilliant programme on the Reformation/Cranmer and the Book of Common Prayer.
Oh and Spurs lose. Southam will be even more in the doldrums than usual... if that's possible.

There's been a lot of programs about the Reformation recently.

Probably because of the 600th aniiversay of Luther.

The Gunpowder series had several Brexit related phrases - I assume they were deliberate and that I'm not seeing Brexit everywhere.

You've taken leave of your senses. Remain calm.

Mr. Sandpit, yeah, I was wondering if they might learn something technologically but it's worth pointing out it's an entirely different beast. Whilst miles better in a straight line, it'd probably be less fantastic at cornering.

And now I'm thinking of the Bloodhound piloted by Maldonado

SquareRoot said:

HYUFD said:

Pong said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

If Trump's smart he'll give the UK a fantastic trade deal in return for Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill* going to 'help' the Democrat campaign.

*Think I got her name right...

Timothy and Hill were excellent. Two people who grasped what a bind the country was in and attempted to pursue a viable strategy to turn things around, delicately asking the country for a mandate to address some deep structural problems. Sadly, at the vital moment, the PCP/Conservateriat demanded u-turns and chose to pander to the narrow interests of their client vote instead.

Rubbish, it was their snubbing of the 'client vote' with the disastrous dementia tax policy and ending the triple lock and winter fuel allowance etc which cost May her majority.

A result of the first order, my winter fuel allowance is due any day now.. Huzzah!

Yes ironically the lost majority forced May to reinstate the goodies for the core vote and do more for the young who voted Labour.

MikeSmithson said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

TMerkel's troubles continue

CDU gets lowest poll rating for 5 years

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html

and coalition talks getting heated

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-jamaika-gespraeche-15264002.html

This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.

I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble

Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin

The big difference is that the German Chancellor is a lot more competent than the British Prime Minister

Really?

She screwed up on air pollution, nuclear energy, migration, Greece and lied about her banks.

Mr. Sandpit, yeah, it's pathetic.

Verstappen's reinvigorated interest in the sport and already has a large fanbase, but the problem with fans is that some of them are fanboys. A while ago a CoD developer got death threats (as did his family) because he altered the reload times on guns to try and balance the game better. On the internet, the empty-headed make a lot of noise.

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Charles said:

MikeSmithson said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

TMerkel's troubles continue

CDU gets lowest poll rating for 5 years

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html

and coalition talks getting heated

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-jamaika-gespraeche-15264002.html

This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.

I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble

Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin

The big difference is that the German Chancellor is a lot more competent than the British Prime Minister

Really?

She screwed up on air pollution, nuclear energy, migration, Greece and lied about her banks.

In your opinion. Not, apparently, in the opinion of the majority of Germans.

Did the majority of Germans vote for her party?

Charles said:

MikeSmithson said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

TMerkel's troubles continue

CDU gets lowest poll rating for 5 years

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html

and coalition talks getting heated

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-jamaika-gespraeche-15264002.html

This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.

I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble

Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin

The big difference is that the German Chancellor is a lot more competent than the British Prime Minister

Really?

She screwed up on air pollution, nuclear energy, migration, Greece and lied about her banks.

And your point is?
Compared with policing, calling an unnecessary election, immigration, cabinet-making (not the woodwork sort, obviously,) and nuclear energy.

Sandpit said:

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: in unpleasant news, Mika Salo has received death threats. He was the driver steward for the US GP (last weekend), and thus one of the men involved in the controversial penalty to Verstappen which demoted him from 3rd to 4th.

Making a decision some people dislike is only grounds for death threats if you're completely bloody demented. Some people are off their rockers. *sighs*

That’s really not good. It’s a sporting event, not the end of the world. So it seems that the Red Bullies have some equally dislikable fans, now who will want to be a steward?

Much better to treat things with a little humour. ISTR that a few years back Ferrari had problems with a missing tyre at a Schumacher pitstop. A couple of days later, someone dropped off a wheel outside the Ferrari factory. "Found it!"

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Punter, when you make such bets do you usually do so on an each way basis?

You can check mathematically.

The short answer to this race is 'yes'.

Here is the working.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ApH3umghLIDGVIpu7gwsgN30nSZcyxR9xQf7wqnpMDQ/edit?usp=sharing