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Fox News has the Democrats leading by 15 points for 2018 mid-terms Trump's first big electoral test https://t.co/H2f1GtXdbJ

Read the full story here

MTimT

Ed Gillespie apparently has taken the lead in the VA gubernatorial race, which surprised me.

MTimT

This piece out by Pew shows how both parties are dominated by their more extreme supporters:

http://www.people-press.org/2017/10/24/political-typology-reveals-deep-fissures-on-the-right-and-left/

rkrkrk

“Currently his Republican Party has majorities in both the Senate and the House and his ability to act could be impeded if one or both of these are lost.”

Not immediately clear that they have much ability at present.
The Republicans can’t seem to agree enough to get stuff done.

foxinsoxuk

MTimT said:

This piece out by Pew shows how both parties are dominated by their more extreme supporters:

http://www.people-press.org/2017/10/24/political-typology-reveals-deep-fissures-on-the-right-and-left/

That is quite an interesting attitude survey by Pew Research. I come out as a Disaffected Demmocrat.

Traditionally the Dems have had a poor turnout in the midterms, but that might be different this time. Trump may find it difficult to get much done afterwards. Of course he can still sign his Executive Orders but more substantive stuff may fall by the wayside. He shows little enough inclination to work with Congress already.

3 more years of Trumpism to survivr. On these figures he is not getting re elected.

rcs1000

The Republicans have dominated state senate (and gubnatorial) elections for some time, and this has meant they've been the ones in charge of redistricting. Losing the House of Representatives would be painful. Losing state races could have much longer term impacts.

RochdalePioneers

Fake news. Sad.

And if the Dems win the President will declare it as proof of electoral fraud.

Will nobody rid us of the turbulent priest?

Charles

RochdalePioneers said:

Fake news. Sad.

And if the Dems win the President will declare it as proof of electoral fraud.

Will nobody rid us of the turbulent priest?

A friend of mine is heir to one of the 4 knights involved in that little episode. By all accounts he was a remarkable thuggish and unpleasant man...

MTimT

foxinsoxuk said:

MTimT said:

This piece out by Pew shows how both parties are dominated by their more extreme supporters:

http://www.people-press.org/2017/10/24/political-typology-reveals-deep-fissures-on-the-right-and-left/

That is quite an interesting attitude survey by Pew Research. I come out as a Disaffected Demmocrat.

Traditionally the Dems have had a poor turnout in the midterms, but that might be different this time. Trump may find it difficult to get much done afterwards. Of course he can still sign his Executive Orders but more substantive stuff may fall by the wayside. He shows little enough inclination to work with Congress already.

3 more years of Trumpism to survivr. On these figures he is not getting re elected.

Odd. I did the questionnaire, but it did not calculate my position on the scale.

As always, I found it hard to answer this kind of binary question. For the majority of them, I thought both options were right.

foxinsoxuk

rcs1000 said:

The Republicans have dominated state senate (and gubnatorial) elections for some time, and this has meant they've been the ones in charge of redistricting. Losing the House of Representatives would be painful. Losing state races could have much longer term impacts.

Which govornerships are up in 2018?

rcs1000

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

The Republicans have dominated state senate (and gubnatorial) elections for some time, and this has meant they've been the ones in charge of redistricting. Losing the House of Representatives would be painful. Losing state races could have much longer term impacts.

Which govornerships are up in 2018?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_gubernatorial_elections,_2018

ydoethur

rkrkrk said:

“Currently his Republican Party has majorities in both the Senate and the House and his ability to act could be impeded if one or both of these are lost.”

Not immediately clear that they have much ability at present.
The Republicans can’t seem to agree enough to get stuff done.

From a purely strategic point of view, Trump would probably be better off come 2020 to be facing a largely hostile congress dominated by the Blues.

He could then tell his supporters the reason he's achieved bugger all is because the Dems have kept blocking him.

It would be a lie of course, given even a Republican congress has carefully blocked him on several issues, but that's never stopped him in the past.

ydoethur

rcs1000 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

The Republicans have dominated state senate (and gubnatorial) elections for some time, and this has meant they've been the ones in charge of redistricting. Losing the House of Representatives would be painful. Losing state races could have much longer term impacts.

Which govornerships are up in 2018?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_gubernatorial_elections,_2018

Interesting to note only three of those races are put down as potential swaps, out of 39.

Surely if these numbers continue for Trump that's got to increase?

DavidL

rcs1000 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

The Republicans have dominated state senate (and gubnatorial) elections for some time, and this has meant they've been the ones in charge of redistricting. Losing the House of Representatives would be painful. Losing state races could have much longer term impacts.

Which govornerships are up in 2018?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_gubernatorial_elections,_2018

Wow, that's a lot. If Trump screws the pooch for Republicans generally in 2018 we could see a real sea change in State level politics and the opportunity for a whole new generation of governors who could be potential candidates in 2020.

ydoethur

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

The Republicans have dominated state senate (and gubnatorial) elections for some time, and this has meant they've been the ones in charge of redistricting. Losing the House of Representatives would be painful. Losing state races could have much longer term impacts.

Which govornerships are up in 2018?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_gubernatorial_elections,_2018

Wow, that's a lot. If Trump screws the pooch for Republicans generally in 2018 we could see a real sea change in State level politics and the opportunity for a whole new generation of governors who could be potential candidates in 2020.

Can't see it making a difference for 2020. They would have in effect 18 months to make an impact and that's not really long enough for a provincial role.

For 2024 it might be significant.

But that's rather irrelevant if the Dems are only considered likely to make three gains!

RochdalePioneers

Trump has got to be the worst President for at least generations - I assume somewhere in the past there will be someone worse.

What makes me laugh is that for all that Trump is a preening self-obsessed paranoid liar, enough voters saw him as the least worst option vs Hillary Clinton. Which is somewhat damning of her...

DavidL

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

The Republicans have dominated state senate (and gubnatorial) elections for some time, and this has meant they've been the ones in charge of redistricting. Losing the House of Representatives would be painful. Losing state races could have much longer term impacts.

Which govornerships are up in 2018?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_gubernatorial_elections,_2018

Wow, that's a lot. If Trump screws the pooch for Republicans generally in 2018 we could see a real sea change in State level politics and the opportunity for a whole new generation of governors who could be potential candidates in 2020.

Can't see it making a difference for 2020. They would have in effect 18 months to make an impact and that's not really long enough for a provincial role.

For 2024 it might be significant.

But that's rather irrelevant if the Dems are only considered likely to make three gains!

From that map the incumbent Republican is term limited in Florida, Ohio, New Mexico and Michigan amongst others. All key swing states where an incumbent governor would have a real advantage and big enough positions to get a national profile if the winner worked at it. Given the Republican advantage at State level normally most of these would be holds but if the disgust with Trump seen even in his own party yesterday grows things just might change.

Charles

MTimT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MTimT said:

This piece out by Pew shows how both parties are dominated by their more extreme supporters:

http://www.people-press.org/2017/10/24/political-typology-reveals-deep-fissures-on-the-right-and-left/

That is quite an interesting attitude survey by Pew Research. I come out as a Disaffected Demmocrat.

Traditionally the Dems have had a poor turnout in the midterms, but that might be different this time. Trump may find it difficult to get much done afterwards. Of course he can still sign his Executive Orders but more substantive stuff may fall by the wayside. He shows little enough inclination to work with Congress already.

3 more years of Trumpism to survivr. On these figures he is not getting re elected.

Odd. I did the questionnaire, but it did not calculate my position on the scale.

As always, I found it hard to answer this kind of binary question. For the majority of them, I thought both options were right.

You're a Republican. You don't count.

Casino_Royale

RochdalePioneers said:

Trump has got to be the worst President for at least generations - I assume somewhere in the past there will be someone worse.

What makes me laugh is that for all that Trump is a preening self-obsessed paranoid liar, enough voters saw him as the least worst option vs Hillary Clinton. Which is somewhat damning of her...

Nixon. Although he's less competent than Nixon.

foxinsoxuk

rcs1000 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

The Republicans have dominated state senate (and gubnatorial) elections for some time, and this has meant they've been the ones in charge of redistricting. Losing the House of Representatives would be painful. Losing state races could have much longer term impacts.

Which govornerships are up in 2018?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_gubernatorial_elections,_2018

I see Hickenlooper is term limited in Colorado, so may be looking for a new job.

He is a good tip for the Dems 2020 IMO.

DavidL

I was hearing yesterday that Trump is making progress with his tax code changes in the House which will allow a tax holiday of sorts which will in turn allow the tech giants to bring $1trn+ back to the US. If he delivers that and if the conditionality requires that money to be invested in the US writing Trump off in 2020 may well prove an expensive mistake.

ydoethur

RochdalePioneers said:

Trump has got to be the worst President for at least generations - I assume somewhere in the past there will be someone worse.

What makes me laugh is that for all that Trump is a preening self-obsessed paranoid liar, enough voters saw him as the least worst option vs Hillary Clinton. Which is somewhat damning of her...

It's richly ironic that this time last year we were all talking about how big a mess the Republicans were in and whether Dubya might even be their last president.

And six months ago there was a serious possibility that Labour might be reduced to around 150 seats.

Politics is crazy. Is the abysmal quality of our politicians - Trump and Clinton being basically similar in crucial respects, and May's weaknesses being exposed by a campaign that played to Corbyn's one strength - anything to do with it? Or is it just delayed reaction from the crash?

foxinsoxuk

An interesting piece on this just finished on Radio 4:

http://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/local-news/how-long-can-stand-jeremy-622839

Looks like Hunt is trying to blame the councils for some of the coming problems. Leics true blue Nick Rushton doesn't like being made the patsy.

OldKingCole

ydoethur said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Trump has got to be the worst President for at least generations - I assume somewhere in the past there will be someone worse.

What makes me laugh is that for all that Trump is a preening self-obsessed paranoid liar, enough voters saw him as the least worst option vs Hillary Clinton. Which is somewhat damning of her...

It's richly ironic that this time last year we were all talking about how big a mess the Republicans were in and whether Dubya might even be their last president.

And six months ago there was a serious possibility that Labour might be reduced to around 150 seats.

Politics is crazy. Is the abysmal quality of our politicians - Trump and Clinton being basically similar in crucial respects, and May's weaknesses being exposed by a campaign that played to Corbyn's one strength - anything to do with it? Or is it just delayed reaction from the crash?

Nothing to do with the crash; think both we and the Yanks have a low point in the political cycle at the same time.

DavidL

ydoethur said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Trump has got to be the worst President for at least generations - I assume somewhere in the past there will be someone worse.

What makes me laugh is that for all that Trump is a preening self-obsessed paranoid liar, enough voters saw him as the least worst option vs Hillary Clinton. Which is somewhat damning of her...

It's richly ironic that this time last year we were all talking about how big a mess the Republicans were in and whether Dubya might even be their last president.

And six months ago there was a serious possibility that Labour might be reduced to around 150 seats.

Politics is crazy. Is the abysmal quality of our politicians - Trump and Clinton being basically similar in crucial respects, and May's weaknesses being exposed by a campaign that played to Corbyn's one strength - anything to do with it? Or is it just delayed reaction from the crash?

I think that most western economies have been running as a series of bubbles on cheap credit for pretty much all of this century. The levels of indebtedness this has incurred for individuals and countries greatly limits the options available to those in office who all too frequently find themselves not in power resulting in exasperation and disillusionment.

Keeping consumption even at existing levels is proving increasingly difficult as we are seeing with real wages here. The lack of real solutions results in charlatans like Trump and Corbyn getting more of a hearing than they should. After all the alternatives don't seem to have any real ideas either.

SquareRoot

The worst President that I have ever know is down in the polls.. Who'd have thunk it?
Meanwhile on BBC4 a brilliant programme on the Reformation/Cranmer and the Book of Common Prayer.
Oh and Spurs lose. Southam will be even more in the doldrums than usual... if that's possible.

ydoethur

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Trump has got to be the worst President for at least generations - I assume somewhere in the past there will be someone worse.

What makes me laugh is that for all that Trump is a preening self-obsessed paranoid liar, enough voters saw him as the least worst option vs Hillary Clinton. Which is somewhat damning of her...

It's richly ironic that this time last year we were all talking about how big a mess the Republicans were in and whether Dubya might even be their last president.

And six months ago there was a serious possibility that Labour might be reduced to around 150 seats.

Politics is crazy. Is the abysmal quality of our politicians - Trump and Clinton being basically similar in crucial respects, and May's weaknesses being exposed by a campaign that played to Corbyn's one strength - anything to do with it? Or is it just delayed reaction from the crash?

Nothing to do with the crash; think both we and the Yanks have a low point in the political cycle at the same time.

But it's happening in a great many other countries too - France, Greece, Spain, India, Austria, Australia, New Zealand, Venezuela to name a few. That's why I was wondering if it's linked to the crash.

Alanbrooke

TMerkel's troubles continue

CDU gets lowest poll rating for 5 years

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html

and coalition talks getting heated

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-jamaika-gespraeche-15264002.html

Alanbrooke

SquareRoot said:

The worst President that I have ever know is down in the polls.. Who'd have thunk it?
Meanwhile on BBC4 a brilliant programme on the Reformation/Cranmer and the Book of Common Prayer.
Oh and Spurs lose. Southam will be even more in the doldrums than usual... if that's possible.

tell him there's a drought warning, that'll cheer him up

Casino_Royale

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Trump has got to be the worst President for at least generations - I assume somewhere in the past there will be someone worse.

What makes me laugh is that for all that Trump is a preening self-obsessed paranoid liar, enough voters saw him as the least worst option vs Hillary Clinton. Which is somewhat damning of her...

It's richly ironic that this time last year we were all talking about how big a mess the Republicans were in and whether Dubya might even be their last president.

And six months ago there was a serious possibility that Labour might be reduced to around 150 seats.

Politics is crazy. Is the abysmal quality of our politicians - Trump and Clinton being basically similar in crucial respects, and May's weaknesses being exposed by a campaign that played to Corbyn's one strength - anything to do with it? Or is it just delayed reaction from the crash?

I think that most western economies have been running as a series of bubbles on cheap credit for pretty much all of this century. The levels of indebtedness this has incurred for individuals and countries greatly limits the options available to those in office who all too frequently find themselves not in power resulting in exasperation and disillusionment.

Keeping consumption even at existing levels is proving increasingly difficult as we are seeing with real wages here. The lack of real solutions results in charlatans like Trump and Corbyn getting more of a hearing than they should. After all the alternatives don't seem to have any real ideas either.

Yes, I think that's right.

We are no longer top dog, with the rest of the world working for us, but we still expect to be.

DavidL

Alanbrooke said:

TMerkel's troubles continue

CDU gets lowest poll rating for 5 years

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html

and coalition talks getting heated

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-jamaika-gespraeche-15264002.html

This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.

Alanbrooke

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

TMerkel's troubles continue

CDU gets lowest poll rating for 5 years

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html

and coalition talks getting heated

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-jamaika-gespraeche-15264002.html

This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.

I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble

Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin

ydoethur

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

TMerkel's troubles continue

CDU gets lowest poll rating for 5 years

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html

and coalition talks getting heated

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-jamaika-gespraeche-15264002.html

This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.

I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble

Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin

One significant difference though is that it has taken Merkel 12 years to reach this point. It took Theresa May slightly less than 12 months.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

If Trump's smart he'll give the UK a fantastic trade deal in return for Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill* going to 'help' the Democrat campaign.

*Think I got her name right...

DavidL

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

TMerkel's troubles continue

CDU gets lowest poll rating for 5 years

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html

and coalition talks getting heated

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-jamaika-gespraeche-15264002.html

This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.

I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble

Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin

Oh I agree with you but schadenfreude fails to recognise the consequences for us. We are at risk of not being able to find the person who can say yes.

Alanbrooke

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

TMerkel's troubles continue

CDU gets lowest poll rating for 5 years

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html

and coalition talks getting heated

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-jamaika-gespraeche-15264002.html

This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.

I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble

Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin

Oh I agree with you but schadenfreude fails to recognise the consequences for us. We are at risk of not being able to find the person who can say yes.

I dont know where you get the Schadenfreude from, Ive been saying Merkel is in trouble for some time against the backdrop of a greek chorus of PBers saying I am wrong. Pointing out uncomfortable issues doesnt mean I cant see the down side for us,

And that downside is as you point out the EU is completely rudderless. Juncker is a vacuous prima donna, Tusk a nobody, Macron lacks stature and Merkel is is standing on shifting sands.

ydoethur

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

TMerkel's troubles continue

CDU gets lowest poll rating for 5 years

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html

and coalition talks getting heated

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-jamaika-gespraeche-15264002.html

This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.

I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble

Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin

Oh I agree with you but schadenfreude fails to recognise the consequences for us. We are at risk of not being able to find the person who can say yes.

I dont know where you get the Schadenfreude from, Ive been saying Merkel is in trouble for some time against the backdrop of a greek chorus of PBers saying I am wrong. Pointing out uncomfortable issues doesnt mean I cant see the down side for us,

And that downside is as you point out the EU is completely rudderless. Juncker is a vacuous prima donna, Tusk a nobody, Macron lacks stature and Merkel is is standing on shifting sands.

Field Marshal - why so unfair to vacuous prima donnas?

Alanbrooke

ydoethur said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

TMerkel's troubles continue

CDU gets lowest poll rating for 5 years

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html

and coalition talks getting heated

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-jamaika-gespraeche-15264002.html

This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.

I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble

Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin

Oh I agree with you but schadenfreude fails to recognise the consequences for us. We are at risk of not being able to find the person who can say yes.

I dont know where you get the Schadenfreude from, Ive been saying Merkel is in trouble for some time against the backdrop of a greek chorus of PBers saying I am wrong. Pointing out uncomfortable issues doesnt mean I cant see the down side for us,

And that downside is as you point out the EU is completely rudderless. Juncker is a vacuous prima donna, Tusk a nobody, Macron lacks stature and Merkel is is standing on shifting sands.

Field Marshal - why so unfair to vacuous prima donnas?

I lived through the Blair era :-)

ydoethur

Alanbrooke said:

ydoethur said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

TMerkel's troubles continue

CDU gets lowest poll rating for 5 years

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html

and coalition talks getting heated

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-jamaika-gespraeche-15264002.html

This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.

I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble

Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin

Oh I agree with you but schadenfreude fails to recognise the consequences for us. We are at risk of not being able to find the person who can say yes.

I dont know where you get the Schadenfreude from, Ive been saying Merkel is in trouble for some time against the backdrop of a greek chorus of PBers saying I am wrong. Pointing out uncomfortable issues doesnt mean I cant see the down side for us,

And that downside is as you point out the EU is completely rudderless. Juncker is a vacuous prima donna, Tusk a nobody, Macron lacks stature and Merkel is is standing on shifting sands.

Field Marshal - why so unfair to vacuous prima donnas?

I lived through the Blair era :-)

Even so, that's no reason to be comparing him to Juncker.

MikeSmithson

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

TMerkel's troubles continue

CDU gets lowest poll rating for 5 years

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html

and coalition talks getting heated

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-jamaika-gespraeche-15264002.html

This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.

I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble

Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin

The big difference is that the German Chancellor is a lot more competent than the British Prime Minister

Morris_Dancer

Bloodhound sounds quite tasty. From zero to 200mph will take 8s:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-41747995

Bit behind schedule, though.

NickPalmer

foxinsoxuk said:

MTimT said:

This piece out by Pew shows how both parties are dominated by their more extreme supporters:

http://www.people-press.org/2017/10/24/political-typology-reveals-deep-fissures-on-the-right-and-left/

That is quite an interesting attitude survey by Pew Research. I come out as a Disaffected Demmocrat.

Traditionally the Dems have had a poor turnout in the midterms, but that might be different this time. Trump may find it difficult to get much done afterwards. Of course he can still sign his Executive Orders but more substantive stuff may fall by the wayside. He shows little enough inclination to work with Congress already.

3 more years of Trumpism to survivr. On these figures he is not getting re elected.

The Democrats could really do with a Cornbynish pitch to those young uninterested, unregistered "Bystanders". But they seem broadly in good shape.

ydoethur

Morris_Dancer said:

Bloodhound sounds quite tasty. From zero to 200mph will take 8s:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-41747995

Bit behind schedule, though.

I was a bit surprised to see rubber tyres on it, but I see they're only for show. I remember seeing that car at an early stage of development on some publicity gig or other - the funny thing about it is I found it was a lot smaller in reality than it looked in its photographs. I think that's because of how far away people were standing from it so they looked smaller in relation to it.

Pong

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

If Trump's smart he'll give the UK a fantastic trade deal in return for Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill* going to 'help' the Democrat campaign.

*Think I got her name right...

Timothy and Hill were excellent. Two people who grasped what a bind the country was in and attempted to pursue a viable strategy to turn things around, delicately asking the country for a mandate to address some deep structural problems. Sadly, at the vital moment, the PCP/Conservateriat demanded u-turns and chose to pander to the narrow interests of their client vote instead.

another_richard

MikeSmithson said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

TMerkel's troubles continue

CDU gets lowest poll rating for 5 years

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html

and coalition talks getting heated

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-jamaika-gespraeche-15264002.html

This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.

I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble

Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin

The big difference is that the German Chancellor is a lot more competent than the British Prime Minister

You think inviting in the Middle East was competent ?

Alanbrooke

MikeSmithson said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

TMerkel's troubles continue

CDU gets lowest poll rating for 5 years

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html

and coalition talks getting heated

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-jamaika-gespraeche-15264002.html

This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.

I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble

Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin

The big difference is that the German Chancellor is a lot more competent than the British Prime Minister

Really ?

she has screwed up the last 2 elections - the first by dissing the FDP thus forcing her into a coalition with the main oppostion, and the second by launching the AfD in to Parliament

only coalition politics is letting her remain chancellor

Peter_the_Punter

Followers of Trump's popularity ratings on Nate Silver's 538 chart will have noticed a downturn recently. I am not sure what has caused it. Seems to me he hasn't been behaving any worse than normal, but for some reason he's got down to 37.1%, not much above his all-time low of 36.6%.

Normally you'd say it was dangerous for a President to be below 40% but T defies normality every day. Even so, I should think if he gets down to 35% he will no longer be able to defy gravity.

NickPalmer

Alanbrooke said:

TMerkel's troubles continue

CDU gets lowest poll rating for 5 years

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html

and coalition talks getting heated

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-jamaika-gespraeche-15264002.html

To some extent I think they're just filling the papers. The poll changes are all MOE stuff - here's the overall view from all instututes:

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

and the coalition talks are tough as they always are, but it doesn't sound that critical.

kle4

foxinsoxuk said:

MTimT said:

This piece out by Pew shows how both parties are dominated by their more extreme supporters:

http://www.people-press.org/2017/10/24/political-typology-reveals-deep-fissures-on-the-right-and-left/

That is quite an interesting attitude survey by Pew Research. I come out as a disaffected democrat

Opportunity democrat for me

Alanbrooke

NickPalmer said:

Alanbrooke said:

TMerkel's troubles continue

CDU gets lowest poll rating for 5 years

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html

and coalition talks getting heated

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-jamaika-gespraeche-15264002.html

To some extent I think they're just filling the papers. The poll changes are all MOE stuff - here's the overall view from all instututes:

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

and the coalition talks are tough as they always are, but it doesn't sound that critical.

as TSE so rightly put it to a TMay die hard - do you think the last election stengthened her position ?

another_richard

SquareRoot said:

The worst President that I have ever know is down in the polls.. Who'd have thunk it?
Meanwhile on BBC4 a brilliant programme on the Reformation/Cranmer and the Book of Common Prayer.
Oh and Spurs lose. Southam will be even more in the doldrums than usual... if that's possible.

There's been a lot of programs about the Reformation recently.

Probably because of the 600th aniiversay of Luther.

The Gunpowder series had several Brexit related phrases - I assume they were deliberate and that I'm not seeing Brexit everywhere.

HYUFD

It does look like the GOP are heading for a trouncing in the midterms next year, possibly their worst since 1974 after Watergate. The Democrats will almost certainly take the House and even have an outside chance of taking the Senate.

Ironically though despite all the attacks on him from the establishment wing of the party Trump is actually more popular than the GOP as a whole with an approval rating of 38% in the Fox poll compared to the GOP's rating of 35% for the midterms.

ydoethur

Pong said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

If Trump's smart he'll give the UK a fantastic trade deal in return for Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill* going to 'help' the Democrat campaign.

*Think I got her name right...

Timothy and Hill were excellent. Two people who grasped what a bind the country was in and attempted to pursue a viable strategy to turn things around, delicately asking the country for a mandate to address some deep structural problems. Sadly, at the vital moment, the PCP demanded u-turns and chose to pander to the narrow interests of their client vote instead.

Whether or not they were right about the issues isn't the question. We all know, apart from certain people in the Labour Party who are unfortunately running things, that as a country even after ten years of belt tightening we still face painful, unpopular and difficult choices.

However, an election campaign really isn't the moment to unexpectedly spring controversial ideas on people. Even if they had been correctedly presented, rather than being seized on and twisted round by the opponents, the way to get unpopular but necessary things through is have a long discussion separately from party politics. That way you have a broad agreement that should survive changes of government.

To go after it in an election smacked of complacency in two ways: (1) it (correctly) assumed there was no way Corbyn could win and (2) it wrongly assumed that as a result the Conservatives would be in power for so long nobody would be able to undo their changes later. It wouldn't have gone down well even without the shrill opportunism of Corbyn and Lucas.

So whatever their merits, they were duff campaigners.

CarlottaVance

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

TMerkel's troubles continue

CDU gets lowest poll rating for 5 years

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html

and coalition talks getting heated

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-jamaika-gespraeche-15264002.html

This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.

Especially if this is the case:

https://www.politico.eu/article/martin-selmayr-jean-claude-juncker-monster-haunts-britain-brexit/

kle4

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Trump has got to be the worst President for at least generations - I assume somewhere in the past there will be someone worse.

What makes me laugh is that for all that Trump is a preening self-obsessed paranoid liar, enough voters saw him as the least worst option vs Hillary Clinton. Which is somewhat damning of her...

It's richly ironic that this time last year we were all talking about how big a mess the Republicans were in and whether Dubya might even be their last president.

And six months ago there was a serious possibility that Labour might be reduced to around 150 seats.

Politics is crazy. Is the abysmal quality of our politicians - Trump and Clinton being basically similar in crucial respects, and May's weaknesses being exposed by a campaign that played to Corbyn's one strength - anything to do with it? Or is it just delayed reaction from the crash?

I think that most western economies have been running as a series of bubbles on cheap credit for pretty much all of this century. The levels of indebtedness this has incurred for individuals and countries greatly limits the options available to those in office who all too frequently find themselves not in power resulting in exasperation and disillusionment.

Keeping consumption even at existing levels is proving increasingly difficult as we are seeing with real wages here. The lack of real solutions results in charlatans like Trump and Corbyn getting more of a hearing than they should. After all the alternatives don't seem to have any real ideas either.

Depressing but probably true.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Smithson, in most ways. But Merkel's also prone to bizarre knee-jerk policy announcements, such as a drive to get rid of all nuclear power stations after the Fukushima meltdown (Germany not being noted for earthquakes and tsunamis), or the migrant madness.

Mr. Pong, you don't announce a policy out of the blue with no preparatory work in the middle of an election campaign. Even if the policy's right, the lack of media lines to take and public softening up means it'll get shredded.

another_richard

Alanbrooke said:

MikeSmithson said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

TMerkel's troubles continue

CDU gets lowest poll rating for 5 years

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html

and coalition talks getting heated

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-jamaika-gespraeche-15264002.html

This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.

I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble

Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin

The big difference is that the German Chancellor is a lot more competent than the British Prime Minister

Really ?

she has screwed up the last 2 elections - the first by dissing the FDP thus forcing her into a coalition with the main oppostion, and the second by launching the AfD in to Parliament

only coalition politics is letting her remain chancellor

In truth German politicians are at the same low level as elsewhere in Europe.

Its the strength of German industry and the productivity of the German workforce which gives the country its strength - not the incompetents and lightweights in government.

CarlottaVance

foxinsoxuk said:

MTimT said:

This piece out by Pew shows how both parties are dominated by their more extreme supporters:

http://www.people-press.org/2017/10/24/political-typology-reveals-deep-fissures-on-the-right-and-left/

That is quite an interesting attitude survey by Pew Research. I come out as a Disaffected Demmocrat.

Solid Liberal here......

HYUFD

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Trump has got to be the worst President for at least generations - I assume somewhere in the past there will be someone worse.

What makes me laugh is that for all that Trump is a preening self-obsessed paranoid liar, enough voters saw him as the least worst option vs Hillary Clinton. Which is somewhat damning of her...

It's richly ironic that this time last year we were all talking about how big a mess the Republicans were in and whether Dubya might even be their last president.

And six months ago there was a serious possibility that Labour might be reduced to around 150 seats.

Politics is crazy. Is the abysmal quality of our politicians - Trump and Clinton being basically similar in crucial respects, and May's weaknesses being exposed by a campaign that played to Corbyn's one strength - anything to do with it? Or is it just delayed reaction from the crash?

Nothing to do with the crash; think both we and the Yanks have a low point in the political cycle at the same time.

Of course it is to do with the crash and continued low wages and resentmemt at tge financial sector etc that is driving Corbyn and Sanders as much as immigration concerns drove Brexit and Trump.

Morris_Dancer

F1: in unpleasant news, Mika Salo has received death threats. He was the driver steward for the US GP (last weekend), and thus one of the men involved in the controversial penalty to Verstappen which demoted him from 3rd to 4th.

Making a decision some people dislike is only grounds for death threats if you're completely bloody demented. Some people are off their rockers. *sighs*

another_richard

ydoethur said:

Pong said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

If Trump's smart he'll give the UK a fantastic trade deal in return for Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill* going to 'help' the Democrat campaign.

*Think I got her name right...

Timothy and Hill were excellent. Two people who grasped what a bind the country was in and attempted to pursue a viable strategy to turn things around, delicately asking the country for a mandate to address some deep structural problems. Sadly, at the vital moment, the PCP demanded u-turns and chose to pander to the narrow interests of their client vote instead.

Whether or not they were right about the issues isn't the question. We all know, apart from certain people in the Labour Party who are unfortunately running things, that as a country even after ten years of belt tightening we still face painful, unpopular and difficult choices.

However, an election campaign really isn't the moment to unexpectedly spring controversial ideas on people. Even if they had been correctedly presented, rather than being seized on and twisted round by the opponents, the way to get unpopular but necessary things through is have a long discussion separately from party politics. That way you have a broad agreement that should survive changes of government.

To go after it in an election smacked of complacency in two ways: (1) it (correctly) assumed there was no way Corbyn could win and (2) it wrongly assumed that as a result the Conservatives would be in power for so long nobody would be able to undo their changes later. It wouldn't have gone down well even without the shrill opportunism of Corbyn and Lucas.

So whatever their merits, they were duff campaigners.

Ten years of 'belt tightening' has left the UK with retail sales and house prices at record highs, the largest current account deficit on record and approaching £2tr of government debt.

ydoethur

CarlottaVance said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MTimT said:

This piece out by Pew shows how both parties are dominated by their more extreme supporters:

http://www.people-press.org/2017/10/24/political-typology-reveals-deep-fissures-on-the-right-and-left/

That is quite an interesting attitude survey by Pew Research. I come out as a Disaffected Demmocrat.

Solid Liberal here......

I came out as an Opportunity Democrat.

I'm not sure whether that's a euphemism or not!

CarlottaVance

This will please some more than others:

https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/90109/eu-officials-limit-brexit-transition-20-months

HYUFD

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

TMerkel's troubles continue

CDU gets lowest poll rating for 5 years

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html

and coalition talks getting heated

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-jamaika-gespraeche-15264002.html

This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.

What difference does Merkel make? We have to pay our money regardless and agree a transition deal before we even get to a FTA and she has always taken a tough line with the UK post Brexit despite the myth she wants to do us a favour.
The Bundestag will also have a vote on Brexit terms in all likelihood and it is now far more pro UK than it was before with a significant number of pro Brexit AfD representatives and pro City of London FDP representatives.

Pong

ydoethur said:

Pong said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

If Trump's smart he'll give the UK a fantastic trade deal in return for Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill* going to 'help' the Democrat campaign.

*Think I got her name right...

Timothy and Hill were excellent. Two people who grasped what a bind the country was in and attempted to pursue a viable strategy to turn things around, delicately asking the country for a mandate to address some deep structural problems. Sadly, at the vital moment, the PCP demanded u-turns and chose to pander to the narrow interests of their client vote instead.

Whether or not they were right about the issues isn't the question. We all know, apart from certain people in the Labour Party who are unfortunately running things, that as a country even after ten years of belt tightening we still face painful, unpopular and difficult choices.

However, an election campaign really isn't the moment to unexpectedly spring controversial ideas on people. Even if they had been correctedly presented, rather than being seized on and twisted round by the opponents, the way to get unpopular but necessary things through is have a long discussion separately from party politics. That way you have a broad agreement that should survive changes of government.

To go after it in an election smacked of complacency in two ways: (1) it (correctly) assumed there was no way Corbyn could win and (2) it wrongly assumed that as a result the Conservatives would be in power for so long nobody would be able to undo their changes later. It wouldn't have gone down well even without the shrill opportunism of Corbyn and Lucas.

So whatever their merits, they were duff campaigners.

They had no option. They needed UKIP out the way in as many seats as possible. Any whiff of policies that would even slightly annoy the blue/purple client vote, pre-candidate deadline, would have screwed things up. That part of the strategy worked great.

The kippers took the bait.

The manifesto pivot almost worked.

ydoethur

another_richard said:

Ten years of 'belt tightening' has left the UK with retail sales and house prices at record highs, the largest current account deficit on record and approaching £2tr of government debt.

Yes. That was my point. We've already cut hard, although I sometimes wonder whether we really need the Departments of Education, Transport and Health at all. Now further very hard choices have to be made as that's not been enough. And that cannot be made on the basis of partisanship or the other side will just force a reversal and we'll be no further forward.

Scott_P

Eventually, Downing Street disavowed their whip’s sinister project. They know as well as the rest of us what he was up to. Brexiteers had no use for experts during the referendum campaign and dismissed them as doomsayers and their warnings and projections as pessimistic and political. They got Brexit but it is not turning out to be the glorious liberation they imagined. Facts have intruded on rhetoric and suddenly sunny patriotism isn’t enough. Instead of acknowledging their folly, they hope to cajole the bearers of bad news into silence.

But academic malpractice and Lefty campus bias are red herrings in this debate. The Eurosceptic Right is throwing a tantrum because reality is refusing to come quietly and stop making a fuss. They don’t want ‘bias free’ lectures or objective teaching materials. They want a safe space for themselves, where their Brexit fantasies go unchallenged by awkward facts.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/10/the-eurosceptic-right-are-copying-the-snps-sinister-playbook/

rkrkrk

ydoethur said:

rkrkrk said:

“Currently his Republican Party has majorities in both the Senate and the House and his ability to act could be impeded if one or both of these are lost.”

Not immediately clear that they have much ability at present.
The Republicans can’t seem to agree enough to get stuff done.

From a purely strategic point of view, Trump would probably be better off come 2020 to be facing a largely hostile congress dominated by the Blues.

He could then tell his supporters the reason he's achieved bugger all is because the Dems have kept blocking him.

It would be a lie of course, given even a Republican congress has carefully blocked him on several issues, but that's never stopped him in the past.

I think more might get done if Dems controlled house and senate.
Trump would probably sign any bill if he thought it would make him look good.
Rename the Affordable Cate act Trump Care - bung a bit more money in to reduce premiums and job done.

HYUFD

Pong said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

If Trump's smart he'll give the UK a fantastic trade deal in return for Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill* going to 'help' the Democrat campaign.

*Think I got her name right...

Timothy and Hill were excellent. Two people who grasped what a bind the country was in and attempted to pursue a viable strategy to turn things around, delicately asking the country for a mandate to address some deep structural problems. Sadly, at the vital moment, the PCP/Conservateriat demanded u-turns and chose to pander to the narrow interests of their client vote instead.

Rubbish, it was their snubbing of the 'client vote' with the disastrous dementia tax policy and ending the triple lock and winter fuel allowance etc which cost May her majority.

ydoethur

rkrkrk said:

ydoethur said:

rkrkrk said:

“Currently his Republican Party has majorities in both the Senate and the House and his ability to act could be impeded if one or both of these are lost.”

Not immediately clear that they have much ability at present.
The Republicans can’t seem to agree enough to get stuff done.

From a purely strategic point of view, Trump would probably be better off come 2020 to be facing a largely hostile congress dominated by the Blues.

He could then tell his supporters the reason he's achieved bugger all is because the Dems have kept blocking him.

It would be a lie of course, given even a Republican congress has carefully blocked him on several issues, but that's never stopped him in the past.

I think more might get done if Dems controlled house and senate.
Trump would probably sign any bill if he thought it would make him look good.
Rename the Affordable Cate act Trump Care - bung a bit more money in to reduce premiums and job done.

That's also possible. It's hard to imagine him getting less done given how little he's achieved so far!

Scott_P

Things have not gone as the people who led the Leave campaign in 2016 imagined they would, have they? The vote unexpectedly won, joyous dawns breaking, a new prime minister with a new mantra. They live by a set of propositions: the EU wants a deal as much as we do; it’s in their interests even more than it is in ours; trade deals are easy. As though winning a vote to go to war was somehow the same thing as fighting and winning the war. Berlin will fall by Christmas: it must do, we voted for it!

Soon it will be 18 months since the referendum and we’re not through phase one. We’re arguing about how long a transitional arrangement will last, which will take us to a final agreement we haven’t even articulated.

For a thwarted Leaver there are broadly two explanations for this failure: we were wrong about all that, or we were robbed.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/brexit-fundamentalists-are-the-enemy-within-736dt23kj

RochdalePioneers

ydoethur said:

another_richard said:

Ten years of 'belt tightening' has left the UK with retail sales and house prices at record highs, the largest current account deficit on record and approaching £2tr of government debt.

Yes. That was my point. We've already cut hard, although I sometimes wonder whether we really need the Departments of Education, Transport and Health at all. Now further very hard choices have to be made as that's not been enough. And that cannot be made on the basis of partisanship or the other side will just force a reversal and we'll be no further forward.

We've forgotten the basics of capitalism - consumers need cash to buy products and services and if they don't have enough you can only loan then credit for so long before that bubble explodes.

We need investment on a significant scale. Big cash-hoarding corporates need to be persuaded of the fact via taxation, and the state investing where the private sector won't. We can restore the balance sheet by gaining higher tax revenues by expanding the economy, doesn't always have to be from the cuts side. A city more interested in long term prosperity and less in quarterly profits and hostile M&A does everyone favour

CarlottaVance

Hard border here we come?

World's Largest Ro-Ro Ferry to Be Introduced on Dublin Routes Linking Mainland Europe

https://afloat.ie/port-news/dublin-port/item/37536-world-s-largest-ro-ro-ferry-to-be-introduced-on-dublin-routes-linking-mainland-europe

ydoethur

RochdalePioneers said:

ydoethur said:

another_richard said:

Ten years of 'belt tightening' has left the UK with retail sales and house prices at record highs, the largest current account deficit on record and approaching £2tr of government debt.

Yes. That was my point. We've already cut hard, although I sometimes wonder whether we really need the Departments of Education, Transport and Health at all. Now further very hard choices have to be made as that's not been enough. And that cannot be made on the basis of partisanship or the other side will just force a reversal and we'll be no further forward.

We've forgotten the basics of capitalism - consumers need cash to buy products and services and if they don't have enough you can only loan then credit for so long before that bubble explodes.

We need investment on a significant scale. Big cash-hoarding corporates need to be persuaded of the fact via taxation, and the state investing where the private sector won't. We can restore the balance sheet by gaining higher tax revenues by expanding the economy, doesn't always have to be from the cuts side. A city more interested in long term prosperity and less in quarterly profits and hostile M&A does everyone favour

This is all reasonable. But with savings rates at all-time lows, where does that money come from? The government? It's almost as leveraged as RBS was. Corporations? Some are struggling to pay wages. Private consumers? We've got no money left (with apologies to Liam Byrne).

The simple reality is that we are spending more than we're earning at every level and somehow that has got to be reversed. It's not going to be easy or pleasant, however.

ydoethur

CarlottaVance said:

Hard border here we come?

World's Largest Ro-Ro Ferry to Be Introduced on Dublin Routes Linking Mainland Europe

https://afloat.ie/port-news/dublin-port/item/37536-world-s-largest-ro-ro-ferry-to-be-introduced-on-dublin-routes-linking-mainland-europe

Massive - but not perhaps the most aesthetically pleasing!

https://goo.gl/images/FjhMsV

SquareRoot

HYUFD said:

Pong said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

If Trump's smart he'll give the UK a fantastic trade deal in return for Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill* going to 'help' the Democrat campaign.

*Think I got her name right...

Timothy and Hill were excellent. Two people who grasped what a bind the country was in and attempted to pursue a viable strategy to turn things around, delicately asking the country for a mandate to address some deep structural problems. Sadly, at the vital moment, the PCP/Conservateriat demanded u-turns and chose to pander to the narrow interests of their client vote instead.

Rubbish, it was their snubbing of the 'client vote' with the disastrous dementia tax policy and ending the triple lock and winter fuel allowance etc which cost May her majority.

A result of the first order, my winter fuel allowance is due any day now.. Huzzah!

Peter_the_Punter

After yesterday's topical tip, I am going for Election Day in the 7.45 at Kempton this evening.

No, I'm not seeking out 'name' bets. I really do think it is value at 12/1, and just thought you might be amused by the coincidence.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Punter, when you make such bets do you usually do so on an each way basis?

Sandpit

DavidL said:

I was hearing yesterday that Trump is making progress with his tax code changes in the House which will allow a tax holiday of sorts which will in turn allow the tech giants to bring $1trn+ back to the US. If he delivers that and if the conditionality requires that money to be invested in the US writing Trump off in 2020 may well prove an expensive mistake.

This policy is the key to whether Trump’s administration is seen as a success or a failure.

There’s probably a million infrastructure jobs directly created by the tax money, plus numerous more from some of America’s largest companies being able to invest domestically in R&D and production.

If Trump can’t get this through, he’s the proverbial cooked bread in 2020 - but if he does get it through his odds of re-election are considerably higher than we’re all thinking now.

Sandpit

Morris_Dancer said:

Bloodhound sounds quite tasty. From zero to 200mph will take 8s:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-41747995

Bit behind schedule, though.

Run starts at 12:30, awesome piece of British engineering. Makes F1 cars look really slow!
https://twitter.com/BLOODHOUND_SSC/status/923444205934071808

AlastairMeeks

I suspect that the value, when these markets do become liquid, will be with the Republicans. British bettors seem to have Democrat hearts.

Richard_Tyndall

RochdalePioneers said:

Fake news. Sad.

And if the Dems win the President will declare it as proof of electoral fraud.

Will nobody rid us of the turbulent priest?

I am interested/concerned to see what Trump's reaction will be when he no longer has Republican majorities on the Hill to ease things for him. It might be that he has seen all the Congressmen, Republican and Democrat, as enemies so it would make no difference. But the question is how he will react as he becomes more and more of an isolated figure in the Whitehouse. I suppose it is at that point we find out whether he is just bad or genuinely mad.

Freggles

another_richard said:

SquareRoot said:

The worst President that I have ever know is down in the polls.. Who'd have thunk it?
Meanwhile on BBC4 a brilliant programme on the Reformation/Cranmer and the Book of Common Prayer.
Oh and Spurs lose. Southam will be even more in the doldrums than usual... if that's possible.

There's been a lot of programs about the Reformation recently.

Probably because of the 600th aniiversay of Luther.

The Gunpowder series had several Brexit related phrases - I assume they were deliberate and that I'm not seeing Brexit everywhere.

You've taken leave of your senses. Remain calm.

Winstanley

ydoethur said:

CarlottaVance said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MTimT said:

This piece out by Pew shows how both parties are dominated by their more extreme supporters:

http://www.people-press.org/2017/10/24/political-typology-reveals-deep-fissures-on-the-right-and-left/

That is quite an interesting attitude survey by Pew Research. I come out as a Disaffected Demmocrat.

Solid Liberal here......

I came out as an Opportunity Democrat.

I'm not sure whether that's a euphemism or not!

Given we're approaching the centenary, this is a fun Russian Revolution political compass: http://arzamas.academy/materials/1269

I'm expecting lots of Kadets and Black Hundreds...

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Sandpit, yeah, I was wondering if they might learn something technologically but it's worth pointing out it's an entirely different beast. Whilst miles better in a straight line, it'd probably be less fantastic at cornering.

And now I'm thinking of the Bloodhound piloted by Maldonado

HYUFD

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

I was hearing yesterday that Trump is making progress with his tax code changes in the House which will allow a tax holiday of sorts which will in turn allow the tech giants to bring $1trn+ back to the US. If he delivers that and if the conditionality requires that money to be invested in the US writing Trump off in 2020 may well prove an expensive mistake.

This policy is the key to whether Trump’s administration is seen as a success or a failure.

There’s probably a million infrastructure jobs directly created by the tax money, plus numerous more from some of America’s largest companies being able to invest domestically in R&D and production.

If Trump can’t get this through, he’s the proverbial cooked bread in 2020 - but if he does get it through his odds of re-election are considerably higher than we’re all thinking now.

The key for him is whether he gets more well paid jobs in the rustbelt, if not Sanders is waiting to capitalise.

HYUFD

SquareRoot said:

HYUFD said:

Pong said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

If Trump's smart he'll give the UK a fantastic trade deal in return for Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill* going to 'help' the Democrat campaign.

*Think I got her name right...

Timothy and Hill were excellent. Two people who grasped what a bind the country was in and attempted to pursue a viable strategy to turn things around, delicately asking the country for a mandate to address some deep structural problems. Sadly, at the vital moment, the PCP/Conservateriat demanded u-turns and chose to pander to the narrow interests of their client vote instead.

Rubbish, it was their snubbing of the 'client vote' with the disastrous dementia tax policy and ending the triple lock and winter fuel allowance etc which cost May her majority.

A result of the first order, my winter fuel allowance is due any day now.. Huzzah!

Yes ironically the lost majority forced May to reinstate the goodies for the core vote and do more for the young who voted Labour.

Sandpit

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: in unpleasant news, Mika Salo has received death threats. He was the driver steward for the US GP (last weekend), and thus one of the men involved in the controversial penalty to Verstappen which demoted him from 3rd to 4th.

Making a decision some people dislike is only grounds for death threats if you're completely bloody demented. Some people are off their rockers. *sighs*

That’s really not good. It’s a sporting event, not the end of the world. So it seems that the Red Bullies have some equally dislikable fans, now who will want to be a steward?

Charles

MikeSmithson said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

TMerkel's troubles continue

CDU gets lowest poll rating for 5 years

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html

and coalition talks getting heated

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-jamaika-gespraeche-15264002.html

This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.

I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble

Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin

The big difference is that the German Chancellor is a lot more competent than the British Prime Minister

Really?

She screwed up on air pollution, nuclear energy, migration, Greece and lied about her banks.

HYUFD

Richard_Tyndall said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Fake news. Sad.

And if the Dems win the President will declare it as proof of electoral fraud.

Will nobody rid us of the turbulent priest?

I am interested/concerned to see what Trump's reaction will be when he no longer has Republican majorities on the Hill to ease things for him. It might be that he has seen all the Congressmen, Republican and Democrat, as enemies so it would make no difference. But the question is how he will react as he becomes more and more of an isolated figure in the Whitehouse. I suppose it is at that point we find out whether he is just bad or genuinely mad.

He could end up as Nixon with more money but fewer brain cells

Ishmael_Z

Sandpit said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Bloodhound sounds quite tasty. From zero to 200mph will take 8s:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-41747995

Bit behind schedule, though.

Run starts at 12:30, awesome piece of British engineering. Makes F1 cars look really slow!
https://twitter.com/BLOODHOUND_SSC/status/923444205934071808

The F1 cars comparison is like saying my moped can outrun Frankel. Cars are driven via the wheels, this thing is an aeroplane with the wings left off.

Sandpit

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Sandpit, yeah, I was wondering if they might learn something technologically but it's worth pointing out it's an entirely different beast. Whilst miles better in a straight line, it'd probably be less fantastic at cornering.

And now I'm thinking of the Bloodhound piloted by Maldonado

Possibly the best thing about this project is how they’re working with universities and British fabricators, as well as a massive STEM outreach program into schools and youth groups. If a 1,000mph car can’t get people interested in science and technology, I’m really not sure what will.

And it’s all funded by donations. From just £15 you can have your name written on the fin of the car, makes a great Christmas or birthday present for the person who has everything or you don’t know what to buy. http://www.bloodhoundssc.com/support-us

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Sandpit, yeah, it's pathetic.

Verstappen's reinvigorated interest in the sport and already has a large fanbase, but the problem with fans is that some of them are fanboys. A while ago a CoD developer got death threats (as did his family) because he altered the reload times on guns to try and balance the game better. On the internet, the empty-headed make a lot of noise.

FeersumEnjineeya

Charles said:

MikeSmithson said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

TMerkel's troubles continue

CDU gets lowest poll rating for 5 years

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html

and coalition talks getting heated

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-jamaika-gespraeche-15264002.html

This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.

I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble

Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin

The big difference is that the German Chancellor is a lot more competent than the British Prime Minister

Really?

She screwed up on air pollution, nuclear energy, migration, Greece and lied about her banks.

In your opinion. Not, apparently, in the opinion of the majority of Germans.

CarlottaVance

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Charles said:

MikeSmithson said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

TMerkel's troubles continue

CDU gets lowest poll rating for 5 years

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html

and coalition talks getting heated

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-jamaika-gespraeche-15264002.html

This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.

I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble

Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin

The big difference is that the German Chancellor is a lot more competent than the British Prime Minister

Really?

She screwed up on air pollution, nuclear energy, migration, Greece and lied about her banks.

In your opinion. Not, apparently, in the opinion of the majority of Germans.

Did the majority of Germans vote for her party?

logical_song

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Fake news. Sad.

And if the Dems win the President will declare it as proof of electoral fraud.

Will nobody rid us of the turbulent priest?

I am interested/concerned to see what Trump's reaction will be when he no longer has Republican majorities on the Hill to ease things for him. It might be that he has seen all the Congressmen, Republican and Democrat, as enemies so it would make no difference. But the question is how he will react as he becomes more and more of an isolated figure in the Whitehouse. I suppose it is at that point we find out whether he is just bad or genuinely mad.

He could end up as Nixon with more money but fewer brain cells

At least Nixon had Kissinger, will Trump have any of his original team?

OldKingCole

Charles said:

MikeSmithson said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

TMerkel's troubles continue

CDU gets lowest poll rating for 5 years

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html

and coalition talks getting heated

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-jamaika-gespraeche-15264002.html

This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.

I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble

Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin

The big difference is that the German Chancellor is a lot more competent than the British Prime Minister

Really?

She screwed up on air pollution, nuclear energy, migration, Greece and lied about her banks.

And your point is?
Compared with policing, calling an unnecessary election, immigration, cabinet-making (not the woodwork sort, obviously,) and nuclear energy.

FeersumEnjineeya

CarlottaVance said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Charles said:

MikeSmithson said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

TMerkel's troubles continue

CDU gets lowest poll rating for 5 years

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html

and coalition talks getting heated

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-jamaika-gespraeche-15264002.html

This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.

I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble

Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin

The big difference is that the German Chancellor is a lot more competent than the British Prime Minister

Really?

She screwed up on air pollution, nuclear energy, migration, Greece and lied about her banks.

In your opinion. Not, apparently, in the opinion of the majority of Germans.

Did the majority of Germans vote for her party?

No German party has achieved an overall majority since the 1950s, but, according to polling, most Germans are satisfied with Merkel's performance, and they would rather have her as Chancellor than anybody else.

JosiasJessop

Sandpit said:

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: in unpleasant news, Mika Salo has received death threats. He was the driver steward for the US GP (last weekend), and thus one of the men involved in the controversial penalty to Verstappen which demoted him from 3rd to 4th.

Making a decision some people dislike is only grounds for death threats if you're completely bloody demented. Some people are off their rockers. *sighs*

That’s really not good. It’s a sporting event, not the end of the world. So it seems that the Red Bullies have some equally dislikable fans, now who will want to be a steward?

Much better to treat things with a little humour. ISTR that a few years back Ferrari had problems with a missing tyre at a Schumacher pitstop. A couple of days later, someone dropped off a wheel outside the Ferrari factory. "Found it!"

david_herdson

CarlottaVance said:

Hard border here we come?

World's Largest Ro-Ro Ferry to Be Introduced on Dublin Routes Linking Mainland Europe

https://afloat.ie/port-news/dublin-port/item/37536-world-s-largest-ro-ro-ferry-to-be-introduced-on-dublin-routes-linking-mainland-europe

I wouldn't read a huge amount into that. I had a look before writing my Irish Border article a couple of weeks ago. There are only eight scheduled services a week from Ireland to the continent,so there's scope for increasing that capacity anyway.

Pulpstar

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Punter, when you make such bets do you usually do so on an each way basis?

You can check mathematically.

The short answer to this race is 'yes'.

Here is the working.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ApH3umghLIDGVIpu7gwsgN30nSZcyxR9xQf7wqnpMDQ/edit?usp=sharing