For F1, I've gone more for each way winner bets recently, the alternative being hedging on Betfair. Maybe I should rejig the funds, such as they are, so I have a bit more in Betfair...
This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.
I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble
Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin
The big difference is that the German Chancellor is a lot more competent than the British Prime Minister
Really?
She screwed up on air pollution, nuclear energy, migration, Greece and lied about her banks.
In your opinion. Not, apparently, in the opinion of the majority of Germans.
Did the majority of Germans vote for her party?
No German party has achieved an overall majority since the 1950s, but, according to polling, most Germans are satisfied with Merkel's performance, and they would rather have her as Chancellor than anybody else.
Even a member of her own party demanded her resignation this week
This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.
I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble
Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin
The big difference is that the German Chancellor is a lot more competent than the British Prime Minister
Really?
She screwed up on air pollution, nuclear energy, migration, Greece and lied about her banks.
And your point is? Compared with policing, calling an unnecessary election, immigration, cabinet-making (not the woodwork sort, obviously,) and nuclear energy.
A sort of argument which always brings to mind:
"That is because that you were taken in by that verdammte Allied propaganda! Such filthy lies! They told lies! But nobody ever said a bad word about Winston Churchill, did they? No! 'Win with Winnie!' Churchill! With his cigars. With his brandy. And his rotten painting, rotten! Hitler - there was a painter! He could paint an entire apartment in one afternoon! Two Coats! Churchill. He couldn't even say 'Nazi'. He would say 'Noooo-zeeehz, Nooooooooooooo-zeeehz!' It wasn't Noses! It was Nazis! Churchill!...Let me tell you this! And you're hearing this straight from the horse. Hitler was better looking than Churchill. He was a better dresser than Churchill. He had more hair! He told funnier jokes! And he could dance the pants off of Churchill!...Churchill!"
For F1, I've gone more for each way winner bets recently, the alternative being hedging on Betfair. Maybe I should rejig the funds, such as they are, so I have a bit more in Betfair...
Only warning is a non runner screws it up alot as you then get 3 places, and the place book is technically overbroke then.
This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.
I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble
Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin
The big difference is that the German Chancellor is a lot more competent than the British Prime Minister
Really?
She screwed up on air pollution, nuclear energy, migration, Greece and lied about her banks.
In your opinion. Not, apparently, in the opinion of the majority of Germans.
Did the majority of Germans vote for her party?
No German party has achieved an overall majority since the 1950s, but, according to polling, most Germans are satisfied with Merkel's performance, and they would rather have her as Chancellor than anybody else.
Even a member of her own party demanded her resignation this week
F1: in unpleasant news, Mika Salo has received death threats. He was the driver steward for the US GP (last weekend), and thus one of the men involved in the controversial penalty to Verstappen which demoted him from 3rd to 4th.
Making a decision some people dislike is only grounds for death threats if you're completely bloody demented. Some people are off their rockers. *sighs*
That’s really not good. It’s a sporting event, not the end of the world. So it seems that the Red Bullies have some equally dislikable fans, now who will want to be a steward?
Much better to treat things with a little humour. ISTR that a few years back Ferrari had problems with a missing tyre at a Schumacher pitstop. A couple of days later, someone dropped off a wheel outside the Ferrari factory. "Found it!"
Much better indeed, but requiring of thought, time, effort and money.
Easier just to threaten the guy on Twitter, welcome to the 20-teens.
Seriously I hope people making death threats are properly investigated, even if it turns out to be nothing. Word will quickly get around that death threats on social media means a couple of days in the slammer while they work out if you’re serious.
I’m reminded of a story from a couple of years ago when someone in the US posted something like “Obama’s in town next week, sniper rifle at the ready” alongside a picture of himself holding a large gun. He was rather shocked that literally a couple of hours later a dozen men in black put his door in!
cabinet-making (not the woodwork sort, obviously,)
I now have a really surreal mental image of Theresa May trying to sell a home-made tallboy. 'You can see how strong and stable it is...' as it wobbles on its dowels!
This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.
I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble
Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin
The big difference is that the German Chancellor is a lot more competent than the British Prime Minister
Really?
She screwed up on air pollution, nuclear energy, migration, Greece and lied about her banks.
In your opinion. Not, apparently, in the opinion of the majority of Germans.
Did the majority of Germans vote for her party?
No German party has achieved an overall majority since the 1950s, but, according to polling, most Germans are satisfied with Merkel's performance, and they would rather have her as Chancellor than anybody else.
That's hardly the relevant stat. The relevant stat is that the CDU-CSU scored their lowest vote share since 1949. That the SPD did a lot worse is rather by-the-by.
There's a lot of assumption that Merkel will form a government. I'm far from convinced that she (or anyone else from the CDU) will. There are few options mathematically open to her - basically, just CDU-CSU-FDP-Green or CDU-CSU-SPD - and those which there are may not be deliverable. Germany could easily end up with new elections next year.
That is quite an interesting attitude survey by Pew Research. I come out as a Disaffected Demmocrat.
Traditionally the Dems have had a poor turnout in the midterms, but that might be different this time. Trump may find it difficult to get much done afterwards. Of course he can still sign his Executive Orders but more substantive stuff may fall by the wayside. He shows little enough inclination to work with Congress already.
3 more years of Trumpism to survivr. On these figures he is not getting re elected.
He's effected huge change via executive order already. Actual laws are just a bonus for him.
This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.
I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble
Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin
The big difference is that the German Chancellor is a lot more competent than the British Prime Minister
Really?
She screwed up on air pollution, nuclear energy, migration, Greece and lied about her banks.
In your opinion. Not, apparently, in the opinion of the majority of Germans.
Did the majority of Germans vote for her party?
No German party has achieved an overall majority since the 1950s, but, according to polling, most Germans are satisfied with Merkel's performance, and they would rather have her as Chancellor than anybody else.
That's hardly the relevant stat. The relevant stat is that the CDU-CSU scored their lowest vote share since 1949. That the SPD did a lot worse is rather by-the-by.
There's a lot of assumption that Merkel will form a government. I'm far from convinced that she (or anyone else from the CDU) will. There are few options mathematically open to her - basically, just CDU-CSU-FDP-Green or CDU-CSU-SPD - and those which there are may not be deliverable. Germany could easily end up with new elections next year.
Earlier this year you were telling everyone that a grand coalition would be the only option and completely discounted a Jamaica coalition even when it was pointed out as a very likely outcome.
On the All Weather, I invariably back win only. I'm much more inclined to do ew over the jumps, although my records indicate that that if I did back win only regardless I would be a shade better off.
Everybody has their own approach tough and there are few hard and fast rules.
Trump has got to be the worst President for at least generations - I assume somewhere in the past there will be someone worse.
What makes me laugh is that for all that Trump is a preening self-obsessed paranoid liar, enough voters saw him as the least worst option vs Hillary Clinton. Which is somewhat damning of her...
Nixon. Although he's less competent than Nixon.
Nixon proposed, effectively, the healthcate plan Obamacare is and, amazingly, a universal basic income.
Both torpedoed by the Dems at the time for not going far enough.
I wouldn't read a huge amount into that. I had a look before writing my Irish Border article a couple of weeks ago. There are only eight scheduled services a week from Ireland to the continent,so there's scope for increasing that capacity anyway.
If it gets Irish lorries travelling (back and forth) to the continent off English roads that can only be a good thing. Also reduces the load on customs checks at Dover.
On the All Weather, I invariably back win only. I'm much more inclined to do ew over the jumps, although my records indicate that that if I did back win only regardless I would be a shade better off.
Everybody has their own approach tough and there are few hard and fast rules.
A friend of mine did some work on odds-on favourites and proved that backing only every odds-on horse is a losing strategy.
Mr. Topping, I've sometimes thought about trying to collect data on that for F1, but the sheer volume of information required (and probably also the mathematical skills needed to draw more than basic conclusions) put me off.
I have started collecting more data this year, keeping race-by-race points tallies for teams and drivers, and finishes sorted by Points, Pointless, and DNS/DNF.
Verstappen's reinvigorated interest in the sport and already has a large fanbase, but the problem with fans is that some of them are fanboys. A while ago a CoD developer got death threats (as did his family) because he altered the reload times on guns to try and balance the game better. On the internet, the empty-headed make a lot of noise.
This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.
I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble
Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin
The big difference is that the German Chancellor is a lot more competent than the British Prime Minister
Really?
She screwed up on air pollution, nuclear energy, migration, Greece and lied about her banks.
In your opinion. Not, apparently, in the opinion of the majority of Germans.
Did the majority of Germans vote for her party?
No German party has achieved an overall majority since the 1950s, but, according to polling, most Germans are satisfied with Merkel's performance, and they would rather have her as Chancellor than anybody else.
latest poll says only 48% want her as chancellor well down from previous levels
cabinet-making (not the woodwork sort, obviously,)
I now have a really surreal mental image of Theresa May trying to sell a home-made tallboy. 'You can see how strong and stable it is...' as it wobbles on its dowels!
LOL!!! I wonder when I wrote it whether someone would have that image.
Glad I’ve brightened your morning. If it did! Although does a half-term morning need brightening?
This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.
I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble
Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin
The big difference is that the German Chancellor is a lot more competent than the British Prime Minister
Really?
She screwed up on air pollution, nuclear energy, migration, Greece and lied about her banks.
In your opinion. Not, apparently, in the opinion of the majority of Germans.
Did the majority of Germans vote for her party?
No German party has achieved an overall majority since the 1950s, but, according to polling, most Germans are satisfied with Merkel's performance, and they would rather have her as Chancellor than anybody else.
That's hardly the relevant stat. The relevant stat is that the CDU-CSU scored their lowest vote share since 1949. That the SPD did a lot worse is rather by-the-by.
There's a lot of assumption that Merkel will form a government. I'm far from convinced that she (or anyone else from the CDU) will. There are few options mathematically open to her - basically, just CDU-CSU-FDP-Green or CDU-CSU-SPD - and those which there are may not be deliverable. Germany could easily end up with new elections next year.
I'm pretty sure that, after a bit of posturing, the Jamaica coalition will be agreed. Most Germans favour this, and all the relevant parties are well motivated to achieve it. On many issues, e.g. Europe, migration, they're in fairly close agreement. It helps that Merkel is very much the pragmatist with regard to such issues as nuclear energy, while the Greens, for their part, have seen their idealism tempered by the realities of government. And I'm sure the FDP won't want to jeopardise their chance of a return to power.
This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.
I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble
Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin
The big difference is that the German Chancellor is a lot more competent than the British Prime Minister
Really?
She screwed up on air pollution, nuclear energy, migration, Greece and lied about her banks.
In your opinion. Not, apparently, in the opinion of the majority of Germans.
Not a majority...
But if you notice the common theme: it gave the German voters what they wanted but externalised the costs (air pollution, Greece, migration and zombie German banks)
The US economy has gone absolubtely gangbusters during Trump's presidency, though how much that is down to his is doubtful... If there'd been a slump though he'd be getting the blame. BUT he is less popular than he should be for the economic climate - 538 have done the sums here:
This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.
I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble
Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin
The big difference is that the German Chancellor is a lot more competent than the British Prime Minister
Really?
She screwed up on air pollution, nuclear energy, migration, Greece and lied about her banks.
And your point is? Compared with policing, calling an unnecessary election, immigration, cabinet-making (not the woodwork sort, obviously,) and nuclear energy.
A sort of argument which always brings to mind:
"That is because that you were taken in by that verdammte Allied propaganda! Such filthy lies! They told lies! But nobody ever said a bad word about Winston Churchill, did they? No! 'Win with Winnie!' Churchill! With his cigars. With his brandy. And his rotten painting, rotten! Hitler - there was a painter! He could paint an entire apartment in one afternoon! Two Coats! Churchill. He couldn't even say 'Nazi'. He would say 'Noooo-zeeehz, Nooooooooooooo-zeeehz!' It wasn't Noses! It was Nazis! Churchill!...Let me tell you this! And you're hearing this straight from the horse. Hitler was better looking than Churchill. He was a better dresser than Churchill. He had more hair! He told funnier jokes! And he could dance the pants off of Churchill!...Churchill!"
One way and another I seemed to have cheered one or two people up this morning.
Would anyone with more knowledge of the USA than me be able to speculate on the possibility of the equivalent of the Remainers' Revenge next year in the US?
This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.
I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble
Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin
The big difference is that the German Chancellor is a lot more competent than the British Prime Minister
Really?
She screwed up on air pollution, nuclear energy, migration, Greece and lied about her banks.
In your opinion. Not, apparently, in the opinion of the majority of Germans.
Did the majority of Germans vote for her party?
No German party has achieved an overall majority since the 1950s, but, according to polling, most Germans are satisfied with Merkel's performance, and they would rather have her as Chancellor than anybody else.
That's hardly the relevant stat. The relevant stat is that the CDU-CSU scored their lowest vote share since 1949. That the SPD did a lot worse is rather by-the-by.
There's a lot of assumption that Merkel will form a government. I'm far from convinced that she (or anyone else from the CDU) will. There are few options mathematically open to her - basically, just CDU-CSU-FDP-Green or CDU-CSU-SPD - and those which there are may not be deliverable. Germany could easily end up with new elections next year.
cabinet-making (not the woodwork sort, obviously,)
I now have a really surreal mental image of Theresa May trying to sell a home-made tallboy. 'You can see how strong and stable it is...' as it wobbles on its dowels!
LOL!!! I wonder when I wrote it whether someone would have that image.
Glad I’ve brightened your morning. If it did! Although does a half-term morning need brightening?
It does when you're doing a load of tedious paperwork because you know you won't have time for it again between today and the Christmas holidays.
So, yes it certainly did bring some much needed brightening to my morning. But hey ho, back to work.
I will leave you with another awesome pun - Theresa May is good at working with wood, just look at the expression on her face...
On the All Weather, I invariably back win only. I'm much more inclined to do ew over the jumps, although my records indicate that that if I did back win only regardless I would be a shade better off.
Everybody has their own approach tough and there are few hard and fast rules.
A friend of mine did some work on odds-on favourites and proved that backing only every odds-on horse is a losing strategy.
On the All Weather, I invariably back win only. I'm much more inclined to do ew over the jumps, although my records indicate that that if I did back win only regardless I would be a shade better off.
Everybody has their own approach tough and there are few hard and fast rules.
A friend of mine did some work on odds-on favourites and proved that backing only every odds-on horse is a losing strategy.
Surprised that he needed to research that. Most regular punters and bookies would be aware of it. If you back favorites blind, especially odds on ones, you will lose money slower than if, say, you picked with a pin. But you are less likely to find value in the short-priced horses, which is why punters like me tend to back the longer priced horses - like Election Day in the 7.45 at Chelmsford tonite, if you can still get 12/1.
Trump has got to be the worst President for at least generations - I assume somewhere in the past there will be someone worse.
What makes me laugh is that for all that Trump is a preening self-obsessed paranoid liar, enough voters saw him as the least worst option vs Hillary Clinton. Which is somewhat damning of her...
Did they see him as the least worst option or are they believers? For some months now I have been following the twitter feeds that Plato links to. It is very scary. These people appear brainwashed. Conspiracies abound. The question is are these people a small minority or are these thoughts widespread amongst Trump supporters.
I'm expecting lots of Kadets and Black Hundreds...
I have no home. Turns out I would be half way between the Kadets and the Menshevist Defensists (I tried to answer as I might have done had I been in Russia in 1917, rather than how my views are now e.g. I oppose the death penalty here and now but in the circumstances of the time, feel it would have been necessary - this has probably pushed me further to the right than my views for the world of 2017 make me).
cabinet-making (not the woodwork sort, obviously,)
I now have a really surreal mental image of Theresa May trying to sell a home-made tallboy. 'You can see how strong and stable it is...' as it wobbles on its dowels!
LOL!!! I wonder when I wrote it whether someone would have that image.
Glad I’ve brightened your morning. If it did! Although does a half-term morning need brightening?
It does when you're doing a load of tedious paperwork because you know you won't have time for it again between today and the Christmas holidays.
So, yes it certainly did bring some much needed brightening to my morning. But hey ho, back to work.
I will leave you with another awesome pun - Theresa May is good at working with wood, just look at the expression on her face...
And I have to think about how to get our local WEA back into financial stability. And then think about a couple of posters on Lifelong Learning, here and in Thailand. And tidy up some files to hand over a job where my term of office has finished.
Trump has got to be the worst President for at least generations - I assume somewhere in the past there will be someone worse.
What makes me laugh is that for all that Trump is a preening self-obsessed paranoid liar, enough voters saw him as the least worst option vs Hillary Clinton. Which is somewhat damning of her...
Nixon. Although he's less competent than Nixon.
Nixon proposed, effectively, the healthcate plan Obamacare is and, amazingly, a universal basic income.
Both torpedoed by the Dems at the time for not going far enough.
More would be achieved by politicians in Western countries, if they were prepared to put aside partisan opposition to policies and recognise that it’s okay to support a move in the right direction sometimes, even if they don’t agree completely with all the details.
Trump has got to be the worst President for at least generations - I assume somewhere in the past there will be someone worse.
What makes me laugh is that for all that Trump is a preening self-obsessed paranoid liar, enough voters saw him as the least worst option vs Hillary Clinton. Which is somewhat damning of her...
Did they see him as the least worst option or are they believers? For some months now I have been following the twitter feeds that Plato links to. It is very scary. These people appear brainwashed. Conspiracies abound. The question is are these people a small minority or are these thoughts widespread amongst Trump supporters.
There are quite a few true believers but not huge numbers - it's about the 30% of the GOP primary base he had in July 2015 - Janurary 2016 (i.e. before he started picking up second- and third- preference transfers). The rest of his vote were party loyalists and negative votes.
Trump has got to be the worst President for at least generations - I assume somewhere in the past there will be someone worse.
What makes me laugh is that for all that Trump is a preening self-obsessed paranoid liar, enough voters saw him as the least worst option vs Hillary Clinton. Which is somewhat damning of her...
Nixon. Although he's less competent than Nixon.
Nixon proposed, effectively, the healthcate plan Obamacare is and, amazingly, a universal basic income.
Both torpedoed by the Dems at the time for not going far enough.
More would be achieved by politicians in Western countries, if they were prepared to put aside partisan opposition to policies and recognise that it’s okay to support a move in the right direction sometimes, even if they don’t agree completely with all the details.
Listening to R4 on the morning commute, Liz Kendall's contribution to the house on social care is the sort of positive collaborative sentiment to a tough problem we could do with alot more of.
Would anyone with more knowledge of the USA than me be able to speculate on the possibility of the equivalent of the Remainers' Revenge next year in the US?
No expert, but I certainly expect the Dem supporters to be extremely motivated to get out and vote!
Trump has got to be the worst President for at least generations - I assume somewhere in the past there will be someone worse.
What makes me laugh is that for all that Trump is a preening self-obsessed paranoid liar, enough voters saw him as the least worst option vs Hillary Clinton. Which is somewhat damning of her...
Nixon. Although he's less competent than Nixon.
Nixon proposed, effectively, the healthcate plan Obamacare is and, amazingly, a universal basic income.
Both torpedoed by the Dems at the time for not going far enough.
More would be achieved by politicians in Western countries, if they were prepared to put aside partisan opposition to policies and recognise that it’s okay to support a move in the right direction sometimes, even if they don’t agree completely with all the details.
I'm expecting lots of Kadets and Black Hundreds...
I have no home. Turns out I would be half way between the Kadets and the Menshevist Defensists (I tried to answer as I might have done had I been in Russia in 1917, rather than how my views are now e.g. I oppose the death penalty here and now but in the circumstances of the time, feel it would have been necessary - this has probably pushed me further to the right than my views for the world of 2017 make me).
I am "far away from the political forces of 1917 Russia". Maybe wasn't a great time for somewhat damp conservatives.
On the All Weather, I invariably back win only. I'm much more inclined to do ew over the jumps, although my records indicate that that if I did back win only regardless I would be a shade better off.
Everybody has their own approach tough and there are few hard and fast rules.
A friend of mine did some work on odds-on favourites and proved that backing only every odds-on horse is a losing strategy.
As is laying every odds-on fav, sadly.
AIUI, the market is beautifully efficient.
Edges are very hard to come by.
All the systems in the world can't compete with a whispered tip from someone who knows.
While I'm sure that someone doesn't know the winner of every race, I was always amazed that for a certain number of races, people knew who was going to win (The Iliad in the Ladbroke, Cool Ground's Welsh National, plus others I can't remember - and those were only the high profile ones that I got to hear about...).
On the All Weather, I invariably back win only. I'm much more inclined to do ew over the jumps, although my records indicate that that if I did back win only regardless I would be a shade better off.
Everybody has their own approach tough and there are few hard and fast rules.
Only hard and fast rule I know of is to be the house and not the punter.
I'm expecting lots of Kadets and Black Hundreds...
I have no home. Turns out I would be half way between the Kadets and the Menshevist Defensists (I tried to answer as I might have done had I been in Russia in 1917, rather than how my views are now e.g. I oppose the death penalty here and now but in the circumstances of the time, feel it would have been necessary - this has probably pushed me further to the right than my views for the world of 2017 make me).
I am "far away from the political forces of 1917 Russia". Maybe wasn't a great time for somewhat damp conservatives.
Trump has got to be the worst President for at least generations - I assume somewhere in the past there will be someone worse.
What makes me laugh is that for all that Trump is a preening self-obsessed paranoid liar, enough voters saw him as the least worst option vs Hillary Clinton. Which is somewhat damning of her...
Did they see him as the least worst option or are they believers? For some months now I have been following the twitter feeds that Plato links to. It is very scary. These people appear brainwashed. Conspiracies abound. The question is are these people a small minority or are these thoughts widespread amongst Trump supporters.
There are quite a few true believers but not huge numbers - it's about the 30% of the GOP primary base he had in July 2015 - Janurary 2016 (i.e. before he started picking up second- and third- preference transfers). The rest of his vote were party loyalists and negative votes.
Thanks David. Where do you get the number from? Is this from the primaries and is that what you are referring to when you say second and third preference transfers?
Trump has got to be the worst President for at least generations - I assume somewhere in the past there will be someone worse.
What makes me laugh is that for all that Trump is a preening self-obsessed paranoid liar, enough voters saw him as the least worst option vs Hillary Clinton. Which is somewhat damning of her...
Nixon. Although he's less competent than Nixon.
Nixon proposed, effectively, the healthcate plan Obamacare is and, amazingly, a universal basic income.
Both torpedoed by the Dems at the time for not going far enough.
More would be achieved by politicians in Western countries, if they were prepared to put aside partisan opposition to policies and recognise that it’s okay to support a move in the right direction sometimes, even if they don’t agree completely with all the details.
Listening to R4 on the morning commute, Liz Kendall's contribution to the house on social care is the sort of positive collaborative sentiment to a tough problem we could do with alot more of.
Sounds interesting, will try and listen to it later. I quite like Liz, she’s usually one to research an issue and take advise before opening her mouth.
Trump has got to be the worst President for at least generations - I assume somewhere in the past there will be someone worse.
What makes me laugh is that for all that Trump is a preening self-obsessed paranoid liar, enough voters saw him as the least worst option vs Hillary Clinton. Which is somewhat damning of her...
Nixon. Although he's less competent than Nixon.
Nixon proposed, effectively, the healthcate plan Obamacare is and, amazingly, a universal basic income.
Both torpedoed by the Dems at the time for not going far enough.
More would be achieved by politicians in Western countries, if they were prepared to put aside partisan opposition to policies and recognise that it’s okay to support a move in the right direction sometimes, even if they don’t agree completely with all the details.
Listening to R4 on the morning commute, Liz Kendall's contribution to the house on social care is the sort of positive collaborative sentiment to a tough problem we could do with alot more of.
Sounds interesting, will try and listen to it later. I quite like Liz, she’s usually one to research an issue and take advise before opening her mouth.
I'm expecting lots of Kadets and Black Hundreds...
I have no home. Turns out I would be half way between the Kadets and the Menshevist Defensists (I tried to answer as I might have done had I been in Russia in 1917, rather than how my views are now e.g. I oppose the death penalty here and now but in the circumstances of the time, feel it would have been necessary - this has probably pushed me further to the right than my views for the world of 2017 make me).
I am "far away from the political forces of 1917 Russia". Maybe wasn't a great time for somewhat damp conservatives.
We should form the David Party.
Actually, I was just trying to transfer myself to the world of Russia in 1917 to get a better handle on where I would have been had I been born 100 years ago there in somewhat similar social circumstances (i.e. to lower-middle class parents on the outskirts of a provincial city, getting a technical career in a bank, and having an interest in politics).
My conclusion was that I'd probably have ended up a good deal to the left of where I am now. In reality, I became a district councillor at the age of 25. In Russia, certainly pre-1905, I'd have had no direct outlet for my political interests without being a landowner or at least with considerably more wealth than my career would provide, though a career switch to administration and the civil service might be an option. Even there though, the rigid hierarchies and reservations of the higher posts for the higher social grades, to a large degree irrespective of talent, would almost certainly piqued a sense of personal and social injustice, as, later, would the conduct of the war.
Given all that, I can well understand why there was a gap where we are: there was no call for such a position - you almost had to support either some essence of the old regime, or a new settlement well to the left of it (though that still provided for a lot of options). I think I'd have probably ended up as quite a strong supporter of Kerensky.
Ten years of 'belt tightening' has left the UK with retail sales and house prices at record highs, the largest current account deficit on record and approaching £2tr of government debt.
Yes. That was my point. We've already cut hard, although I sometimes wonder whether we really need the Departments of Education, Transport and Health at all. Now further very hard choices have to be made as that's not been enough. And that cannot be made on the basis of partisanship or the other side will just force a reversal and we'll be no further forward.
Fat chance of that. Neither side is going to be willing to make harder choices on these matters - the only chance of that, not even a certainty, was if the government, whoever it is, had a great big majority to survive rebellions, but obviously that’s not going to happen.
This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.
I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble
Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin
The big difference is that the German Chancellor is a lot more competent than the British Prime Minister
Really?
She screwed up on air pollution, nuclear energy, migration, Greece and lied about her banks.
In your opinion. Not, apparently, in the opinion of the majority of Germans.
She’s was not voted for by the majority of Germans. Of course she doesn’t need to be, it’s a different system and you need even less of a majority vote to become PM/Chancellor, so the two situations are not comparable, and she is or at least was more competent given she is a long standing leader not someone hanging on by a thread after a year, but that doesn’t mean she cannot have started to screw up more than she used to, and her past or even present competence doesn’t magically make her supported by a majority in electoral terms. At best most will be satisfied with her performance.
Or in short, most may well be satisfied, and her record is one of greater competence, but that doesn’t mean she may not also be messing up more now, and be less popular now.
Really this is just a variant on the May/Corbyn winning the election argument. May clearly went backwards so claiming a win would feel wrong, but she did still end up as PM and led the most popular party in the country. Corbyn clearly made gains and has the momentum now, but his party was still behind so any claim he won also feels wrong. Merkel is strongest, clearly, but no longer as strong as she was, and presumably that is down in part to her being competent, but no longer as competent as she was.
I'm expecting lots of Kadets and Black Hundreds...
That's great. I turn out to be a "Centre Social Revolutionary, leaning Bolshevik", which sounds spot on.
Menshevik Internationalist. Should I head for Peria now and see if I can get to the West?
At +5,-1 I suspect I'd be lucky to get a named mass grave.
So authoritarian. I was +5, -2.
Hopefully I'll survive long enough to read an apologia for your execution.
I was thinking perhaps you could form the right wing of David's new party. Not sure that restricting membership to Davids is terribly practical although it is a good start. 2 of my best friends are also called David.
Trump has got to be the worst President for at least generations - I assume somewhere in the past there will be someone worse.
What makes me laugh is that for all that Trump is a preening self-obsessed paranoid liar, enough voters saw him as the least worst option vs Hillary Clinton. Which is somewhat damning of her...
Nixon. Although he's less competent than Nixon.
Nixon proposed, effectively, the healthcate plan Obamacare is and, amazingly, a universal basic income.
Both torpedoed by the Dems at the time for not going far enough.
More would be achieved by politicians in Western countries, if they were prepared to put aside partisan opposition to policies and recognise that it’s okay to support a move in the right direction sometimes, even if they don’t agree completely with all the details.
Listening to R4 on the morning commute, Liz Kendall's contribution to the house on social care is the sort of positive collaborative sentiment to a tough problem we could do with alot more of.
Sounds interesting, will try and listen to it later. I quite like Liz, she’s usually one to research an issue and take advise before opening her mouth.
The UK's population is set to exceed 70 million before the end of the next decade, according to the Office for National Statistics.
The UK population was estimated to stand at 65.6 million in 2016. The ONS projections are now for a 3.6 million, or 5.5%, increase over the 10 years to 2026, with the 70m mark being passed in the middle of 2029.
This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.
I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble
Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin
The big difference is that the German Chancellor is a lot more competent than the British Prime Minister
Really?
She screwed up on air pollution, nuclear energy, migration, Greece and lied about her banks.
In your opinion. Not, apparently, in the opinion of the majority of Germans.
Did the majority of Germans vote for her party?
Merkel 2017 = 33% May in 2017 = 42%
Different voting systems, so not directly comparable.
How different would the tallies have been if they were the same system? Not much, I fancy.
Very different, obviously. FPTP puts people off voting for smaller parties for fear that their vote won't count, whereas PR encourages fragmentation. It is therefore harder to achieve higher votes under PR.
I'm expecting lots of Kadets and Black Hundreds...
I have no home. Turns out I would be half way between the Kadets and the Menshevist Defensists (I tried to answer as I might have done had I been in Russia in 1917, rather than how my views are now e.g. I oppose the death penalty here and now but in the circumstances of the time, feel it would have been necessary - this has probably pushed me further to the right than my views for the world of 2017 make me).
I am "far away from the political forces of 1917 Russia". Maybe wasn't a great time for somewhat damp conservatives.
We should form the David Party.
Actually, I was just trying to transfer myself to the world of Russia in 1917 to get a better handle on where I would have been had I been born 100 years ago there in somewhat similar social circumstances (i.e. to lower-middle class parents on the outskirts of a provincial city, getting a technical career in a bank, and having an interest in politics).
My conclusion was that I'd probably have ended up a good deal to the left of where I am now. In reality, I became a district councillor at the age of 25. In Russia, certainly pre-1905, I'd have had no direct outlet for my political interests without being a landowner or at least with considerably more wealth than my career would provide, though a career switch to administration and the civil service might be an option. Even there though, the rigid hierarchies and reservations of the higher posts for the higher social grades, to a large degree irrespective of talent, would almost certainly piqued a sense of personal and social injustice, as, later, would the conduct of the war.
Given all that, I can well understand why there was a gap where we are: there was no call for such a position - you almost had to support either some essence of the old regime, or a new settlement well to the left of it (though that still provided for a lot of options). I think I'd have probably ended up as quite a strong supporter of Kerensky.
When I studied the Russian revolution at school (it was still history and not modern studies, honest) I concluded that he was one of the, well, less bad guys. It was an extraordinarily brutal time. And with Stalin it rather went downhill from there.
I came out as Opportunity Democrat which is a little to the left of centre.
However, I gave answers as if I lived in the USA. I would have given different answers (probably more liberal) had I considered it from a UK viewpoint.
Mr. Eagles, interestingly [well, maybe] my first thought on your university comment was the 'elitism' charge that was made recently against top universities, rather than the more general query from the backbencher.
This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.
I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble
Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin
The big difference is that the German Chancellor is a lot more competent than the British Prime Minister
Really?
She screwed up on air pollution, nuclear energy, migration, Greece and lied about her banks.
In your opinion. Not, apparently, in the opinion of the majority of Germans.
Did the majority of Germans vote for her party?
No German party has achieved an overall majority since the 1950s, but, according to polling, most Germans are satisfied with Merkel's performance, and they would rather have her as Chancellor than anybody else.
That's hardly the relevant stat. The relevant stat is that the CDU-CSU scored their lowest vote share since 1949. That the SPD did a lot worse is rather by-the-by.
There's a lot of assumption that Merkel will form a government. I'm far from convinced that she (or anyone else from the CDU) will. There are few options mathematically open to her - basically, just CDU-CSU-FDP-Green or CDU-CSU-SPD - and those which there are may not be deliverable. Germany could easily end up with new elections next year.
Earlier this year you were telling everyone that a grand coalition would be the only option and completely discounted a Jamaica coalition even when it was pointed out as a very likely outcome.
I ruled it out because the FDP ruled it out. They may have had second thoughts on that but I'll still believe it when I see it.
This isn't good for us. A weak Merkel will find it much more difficult to reach a Brexit settlement that is in the interests of Germany and the UK.
I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble
Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin
The big difference is that the German Chancellor is a lot more competent than the British Prime Minister
Really?
She screwed up on air pollution, nuclear energy, migration, Greece and lied about her banks.
In your opinion. Not, apparently, in the opinion of the majority of Germans.
Did the majority of Germans vote for her party?
Merkel 2017 = 33% May in 2017 = 42%
Different voting systems, so not directly comparable.
How different would the tallies have been if they were the same system? Not much, I fancy.
Very different, obviously. FPTP puts people off voting for smaller parties for fear that their vote won't count, whereas PR encourages fragmentation. It is therefore harder to achieve higher votes under PR.
How different? Give us some numbers if you can.
UKIP got trounced in 2017, of course, but they did hit 13% in 2015.
I didnt say it was, I am simply looking at events in Germany and see a lot of parallels between TMay and TMerkel, both are in trouble
Merkel will of course eventually form a govt, but she is a much weakened Kanzlerin
The big difference is that the German Chancellor is a lot more competent than the British Prime Minister
In your opinion. Not, apparently, in the opinion of the majority of Germans.
She’s was not voted for by the majority of Germans. Of course she doesn’t need to be, it’s a different system and you need even less of a majority vote to become PM/Chancellor, so the two situations are not comparable, and she is or at least was more competent given she is a long standing leader not someone hanging on by a thread after a year, but that doesn’t mean she cannot have started to screw up more than she used to, and her past or even present competence doesn’t magically make her supported by a majority in electoral terms. At best most will be satisfied with her performance.
Or in short, most may well be satisfied, and her record is one of greater competence, but that doesn’t mean she may not also be messing up more now, and be less popular now.
Really this is just a variant on the May/Corbyn winning the election argument. May clearly went backwards so claiming a win would feel wrong, but she did still end up as PM and led the most popular party in the country. Corbyn clearly made gains and has the momentum now, but his party was still behind so any claim he won also feels wrong. Merkel is strongest, clearly, but no longer as strong as she was, and presumably that is down in part to her being competent, but no longer as competent as she was.
We were in Germany last week so took a little of the temperature. They are relaxed about the coalition taking time to form, it's how it always works and they are quite happy for it to take time to get the details right rather than rush in just to say we have a Government. Merkel represented Germany just fine at the EU summit while we were there and all business as usual.
The real difference though is that Angela Merkel is seen as the mother of the nation - Mutti - in a way that we don't quite get over here. In some ways she has the characteristics of the Queen rather than the PM. Her opponents may disagree with her but they respect her in a way that isn't true of Theresa May's opponents here.
The real concern was over the strong showing for Alternativ fuer Deutschland - albeit recognising that this is concentrated within the former East Germany.
I'm expecting lots of Kadets and Black Hundreds...
That's great. I turn out to be a "Centre Social Revolutionary, leaning Bolshevik", which sounds spot on.
Menshevik Internationalist. Should I head for Peria now and see if I can get to the West?
At +5,-1 I suspect I'd be lucky to get a named mass grave.
So authoritarian. I was +5, -2.
Hopefully I'll survive long enough to read an apologia for your execution.
I was thinking perhaps you could form the right wing of David's new party. Not sure that restricting membership to Davids is terribly practical although it is a good start. 2 of my best friends are also called David.
Would changing my name to David count as entryism?
It’s interesting how many questions there are in the house from Brexiteers asking David Davis to agree that we do have to leave the EU. Their mood is bleak.
If Theresa May wants to be a success as PM and of Brexit, she needs to sack David Davis.
I nominate Michael Gove as his replacement.
I am a Michael Gove fan. He is a proper libertarian (his set to with that prat Leveson almost made that farce worthwhile), he is a clear thinker, he has an excellent wit which can deflate pomposity well and he has no problem at all with taking on vested interests. But if he were our negotiator the range of possible options may have to include fairly major warfare, possibly nuclear.
Comments
For F1, I've gone more for each way winner bets recently, the alternative being hedging on Betfair. Maybe I should rejig the funds, such as they are, so I have a bit more in Betfair...
"That is because that you were taken in by that verdammte Allied propaganda! Such filthy lies! They told lies! But nobody ever said a bad word about Winston Churchill, did they? No! 'Win with Winnie!' Churchill! With his cigars. With his brandy. And his rotten painting, rotten! Hitler - there was a painter! He could paint an entire apartment in one afternoon! Two Coats! Churchill. He couldn't even say 'Nazi'. He would say 'Noooo-zeeehz, Nooooooooooooo-zeeehz!' It wasn't Noses! It was Nazis! Churchill!...Let me tell you this! And you're hearing this straight from the horse. Hitler was better looking than Churchill. He was a better dresser than Churchill. He had more hair! He told funnier jokes! And he could dance the pants off of Churchill!...Churchill!"
Easier just to threaten the guy on Twitter, welcome to the 20-teens.
Seriously I hope people making death threats are properly investigated, even if it turns out to be nothing. Word will quickly get around that death threats on social media means a couple of days in the slammer while they work out if you’re serious.
I’m reminded of a story from a couple of years ago when someone in the US posted something like “Obama’s in town next week, sniper rifle at the ready” alongside a picture of himself holding a large gun. He was rather shocked that literally a couple of hours later a dozen men in black put his door in!
There's a lot of assumption that Merkel will form a government. I'm far from convinced that she (or anyone else from the CDU) will. There are few options mathematically open to her - basically, just CDU-CSU-FDP-Green or CDU-CSU-SPD - and those which there are may not be deliverable. Germany could easily end up with new elections next year.
Everybody has their own approach tough and there are few hard and fast rules.
Both torpedoed by the Dems at the time for not going far enough.
I have started collecting more data this year, keeping race-by-race points tallies for teams and drivers, and finishes sorted by Points, Pointless, and DNS/DNF.
The urge to destroy is also a creative urge!
Cash on Delivery?
https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article170024868/Union-faellt-auf-tiefsten-Stand-seit-2012-SPD-legt-spuerbar-zu.html
Glad I’ve brightened your morning. If it did! Although does a half-term morning need brightening?
But if you notice the common theme: it gave the German voters what they wanted but externalised the costs (air pollution, Greece, migration and zombie German banks)
If there'd been a slump though he'd be getting the blame. BUT he is less popular than he should be for the economic climate - 538 have done the sums here:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-far-less-popular-than-the-economy-suggests-he-should-be/
So, yes it certainly did bring some much needed brightening to my morning. But hey ho, back to work.
I will leave you with another awesome pun - Theresa May is good at working with wood, just look at the expression on her face...
AIUI, the market is beautifully efficient.
Edges are very hard to come by.
And tidy up some files to hand over a job where my term of office has finished.
Google's Sentiment Analyzer Thinks Being Gay Is Bad
https://m.slashdot.org/story/332861
Oh.
While I'm sure that someone doesn't know the winner of every race, I was always amazed that for a certain number of races, people knew who was going to win (The Iliad in the Ladbroke, Cool Ground's Welsh National, plus others I can't remember - and those were only the high profile ones that I got to hear about...).
I'm still somewhat perplexed to be ahead this year overall. I think it must be early bets, made before I started publicly tipping them.
@estwebber: SNP's Peter Grant - "unlike the present govt Czechoslovakia is only split into two"
LEAVE 52%
REMAIN 48%
May in 2017 = 42%
https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2017-10-25/debates/82934455-30D6-4B0C-94CB-11A0A9A9953D/SocialCare#contribution-D5126446-587D-479F-93DA-4D4DC0AB5D86
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/923465911595659265
The troubling ascent of the LGBT right wing
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/26/ascent-lgbt-right-wing-afd
Actually, I was just trying to transfer myself to the world of Russia in 1917 to get a better handle on where I would have been had I been born 100 years ago there in somewhat similar social circumstances (i.e. to lower-middle class parents on the outskirts of a provincial city, getting a technical career in a bank, and having an interest in politics).
My conclusion was that I'd probably have ended up a good deal to the left of where I am now. In reality, I became a district councillor at the age of 25. In Russia, certainly pre-1905, I'd have had no direct outlet for my political interests without being a landowner or at least with considerably more wealth than my career would provide, though a career switch to administration and the civil service might be an option. Even there though, the rigid hierarchies and reservations of the higher posts for the higher social grades, to a large degree irrespective of talent, would almost certainly piqued a sense of personal and social injustice, as, later, would the conduct of the war.
Given all that, I can well understand why there was a gap where we are: there was no call for such a position - you almost had to support either some essence of the old regime, or a new settlement well to the left of it (though that still provided for a lot of options). I think I'd have probably ended up as quite a strong supporter of Kerensky.
Don't forget that Corbyn only managed to win four more seats than Gordon did at Labour's 2010 disaster.
I nominate Michael Gove as his replacement.
Or in short, most may well be satisfied, and her record is one of greater competence, but that doesn’t mean she may not also be messing up more now, and be less popular now.
Really this is just a variant on the May/Corbyn winning the election argument. May clearly went backwards so claiming a win would feel wrong, but she did still end up as PM and led the most popular party in the country. Corbyn clearly made gains and has the momentum now, but his party was still behind so any claim he won also feels wrong. Merkel is strongest, clearly, but no longer as strong as she was, and presumably that is down in part to her being competent, but no longer as competent as she was.
Why is this all so hard for politicians to sort?
Get a cross-party commission going and sort it.
The UK population was estimated to stand at 65.6 million in 2016.
The ONS projections are now for a 3.6 million, or 5.5%, increase over the 10 years to 2026, with the 70m mark being passed in the middle of 2029.
I don't see you slagging off Nicola for losing both vote-share AND seats at GE2017.
But since you're not answering the question I asked, we can conclude you're trolling.
http://www.people-press.org/quiz/political-typology/
I came out as Opportunity Democrat which is a little to the left of centre.
However, I gave answers as if I lived in the USA. I would have given different answers (probably more liberal) had I considered it from a UK viewpoint.
Mrs May is PM. Corbyn is not. Who cares if Labour hit 40%? They didn't out-vote the Tories.
UKIP got trounced in 2017, of course, but they did hit 13% in 2015.
And in case your maths is as bad as your belief in democracy, 61% of 48% is still less than 30% of those who voted in the referendum.
We were in Germany last week so took a little of the temperature. They are relaxed about the coalition taking time to form, it's how it always works and they are quite happy for it to take time to get the details right rather than rush in just to say we have a Government. Merkel represented Germany just fine at the EU summit while we were there and all business as usual.
The real difference though is that Angela Merkel is seen as the mother of the nation - Mutti - in a way that we don't quite get over here. In some ways she has the characteristics of the Queen rather than the PM. Her opponents may disagree with her but they respect her in a way that isn't true of Theresa May's opponents here.
The real concern was over the strong showing for Alternativ fuer Deutschland - albeit recognising that this is concentrated within the former East Germany.