Skip to content

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is a mistake to assume that LAB leave voters feel as strong

SystemSystem Posts: 12,651
edited August 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is a mistake to assume that LAB leave voters feel as strongly about Brexit as CON ones

With Labour apparently shifting its position on Brexit a notch or two there’s been a lot of interest about what Labour voters think particularly those who supported Leave at the referendum.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    FPT because it bears repeating:

    Trumpton

    Back in August 2016 I posted a few names of associates that would come back and haunt Trump. One was Russian mobster and Trump partner/advisor Felix Sater.

    Sater has reportedly turned supergrass.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Really interesting. I would guess the higher Con acceptance of job loss mainly or at least substantially reflects a better degree of financial cushioning and/or a belief (despite the wording of the question) that their jobs are too important to be lost as a result of Brexit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,941
    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Y0kel said:

    FPT because it bears repeating:

    Trumpton

    Back in August 2016 I posted a few names of associates that would come back and haunt Trump. One was Russian mobster and Trump partner/advisor Felix Sater.

    Sater has reportedly turned supergrass.

    Thanks Yokel. Your posts here are a must read.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,720
    MikeSmithson said:

    Y0kel said:

    FPT because it bears repeating:

    Trumpton

    Back in August 2016 I posted a few names of associates that would come back and haunt Trump. One was Russian mobster and Trump partner/advisor Felix Sater.

    Sater has reportedly turned supergrass.

    Thanks Yokel. Your posts here are a must read.
    +1

    I'd love to know Yokel's background - if he could tell us, that is! He seems more on the ball than most.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Really interesting. I would guess the higher Con acceptance of job loss mainly or at least substantially reflects a better degree of financial cushioning and/or a belief (despite the wording of the question) that their jobs are too important to be lost as a result of Brexit.

    Maybe it's an age thing. Tory and Labour pensioners are not going to lose their jobs. And there are a lot more Tory pensioners than Labour ones.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,678
    edited August 2017
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/902188687970193408

    Taking every word from the European side as gospel, are we? :)
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    The Brexit devaluation of the pound is making UK a lot less attractive to EU migrants and is going to add enormously to the challenges facing the NHS this winter. The international exchange value of their earnings has been slashed by getting on for quarter.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Y0kel said:

    FPT because it bears repeating:

    Trumpton

    Back in August 2016 I posted a few names of associates that would come back and haunt Trump. One was Russian mobster and Trump partner/advisor Felix Sater.

    Sater has reportedly turned supergrass.

    https://twitter.com/keitholbermann/status/901979614335160321
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    edited August 2017
    The Tories have been in the grip of swivel-eyed lunacy over the EU for decades now. This was in 1999:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/anti-europeans-must-be-reined-in-warns-clarke-738277.html

    Mr Clarke opposed growing demands by sceptics for a future Tory government to renegotiate the Treaty of Rome, suggesting this was code for their goal of leaving the EU.

    But the divide on Europe widened when John Maples, the shadow Foreign Secretary, announced that one of the first acts of an incoming Tory government would be to negotiate an amendment to the treaty allowing member states to opt out of future EU legislation.

    Mr Maples toned down his speech, dropping plans to compare the threat to Britain from the EU to that from Nazi Germany. His original draft said that although his generation had not fought to secure Britain's freedom, it faced "a threat to our freedom and independence every bit as great".
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    If my observations are typical older Labour leave voters often have Labour remain voters as children. It might well be that they are following the debate quite differently to Tory leavers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,941
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    The Brexit devaluation of the pound is making UK a lot less attractive to EU migrants and is going to add enormously to the challenges facing the NHS this winter. The international exchange value of their earnings has been slashed by getting on for quarter.
    Yes and that fall in attractiveness to EU migrants is precisely because of the Leave vote Brexit voters voted for in significant part to produce just such a reduction in immigration.

    As for the NHS, the increased training places the government is providing for UK nurses and doctors will help provide a longer term solution to that so the UK is not so reliant on imported healthcare workers
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    I don't recall anyone saying vote leave to collapse the pound.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    HYUFD said:

    Yes and that fall in attractiveness to EU migrants is precisely because of the Leave vote Brexit voters voted for in significant part to produce just such a reduction in immigration.

    Shouldn't the final word of that sentence be 'attractiveness'?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,941
    williamglenn said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes and that fall in attractiveness to EU migrants is precisely because of the Leave vote Brexit voters voted for in significant part to produce just such a reduction in immigration.

    Shouldn't the final word of that sentence be 'attractiveness'?
    It still produced the same end result
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,130
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    The Brexit devaluation of the pound is making UK a lot less attractive to EU migrants and is going to add enormously to the challenges facing the NHS this winter. The international exchange value of their earnings has been slashed by getting on for quarter.
    Not true. The latest migration figures showed that nearly the same number of EU residents immigrated to Britain between January and March of 2017 as did in January to March of 2016:

    https://1drv.ms/x/s!Av4jQcUMVtBpiBtBI6GQaRTA-_MO
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/902188687970193408

    The other side in a negotiation won't invest in the deal if they think you are not serious about your positions.
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 617
    williamglenn said:

    The Tories have been in the grip of swivel-eyed lunacy over the EU for decades now. This was in 1999:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/anti-europeans-must-be-reined-in-warns-clarke-738277.html

    Mr Clarke opposed growing demands by sceptics for a future Tory government to renegotiate the Treaty of Rome, suggesting this was code for their goal of leaving the EU.

    But the divide on Europe widened when John Maples, the shadow Foreign Secretary, announced that one of the first acts of an incoming Tory government would be to negotiate an amendment to the treaty allowing member states to opt out of future EU legislation.

    Mr Maples toned down his speech, dropping plans to compare the threat to Britain from the EU to that from Nazi Germany. His original draft said that although his generation had not fought to secure Britain's freedom, it faced "a threat to our freedom and independence every bit as great".

    That's a useful reminder of how hard centrist/wet Tories tried to sound tough on Europe in the Hague years with bogus rhetoric which they didn't believe in - one of the many small factors over the years which in the end culminated in Brexit. Michael Ancram was another good example. In reality John Maples was a centrist who would almost certainly have been a solid Remainer had he been alive at the time of EUref.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,451
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    The Brexit devaluation of the pound is making UK a lot less attractive to EU migrants and is going to add enormously to the challenges facing the NHS this winter. The international exchange value of their earnings has been slashed by getting on for quarter.
    But 100,000 people have emigrated here from the EU over the course of 12 months.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    williamglenn said:

    The Tories have been in the grip of swivel-eyed lunacy over the EU for decades now. This was in 1999:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/anti-europeans-must-be-reined-in-warns-clarke-738277.html

    Mr Clarke opposed growing demands by sceptics for a future Tory government to renegotiate the Treaty of Rome, suggesting this was code for their goal of leaving the EU.

    But the divide on Europe widened when John Maples, the shadow Foreign Secretary, announced that one of the first acts of an incoming Tory government would be to negotiate an amendment to the treaty allowing member states to opt out of future EU legislation.

    Mr Maples toned down his speech, dropping plans to compare the threat to Britain from the EU to that from Nazi Germany. His original draft said that although his generation had not fought to secure Britain's freedom, it faced "a threat to our freedom and independence every bit as great".

    "swivel-eyed lunacy" is about as funny as jokes based on mental or physical disability generally are. That apart, the only manifestation of (possibly) literal and sectionable insanity we have seen so far in the Great Brexit Debate has not been on the Leaver side. Possibly worth resting the expression, if not withdrawing it altogether from service?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,664
    tlg86 said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    The Brexit devaluation of the pound is making UK a lot less attractive to EU migrants and is going to add enormously to the challenges facing the NHS this winter. The international exchange value of their earnings has been slashed by getting on for quarter.
    Not true. The latest migration figures showed that nearly the same number of EU residents immigrated to Britain between January and March of 2017 as did in January to March of 2016:

    https://1drv.ms/x/s!Av4jQcUMVtBpiBtBI6GQaRTA-_MO
    I mentioned this some months/years ago. Migrants *circulate*: they move to place B, but continue to visit Place A, with frequency decreasing as time goes on. If a deadline is known beforehand then migrants *here* stop visiting *there* (fearing that they will not be let back in) and wannabe migrants *there* start migrating *here* faster (in order to beat the deadline). The result is a short-term bulge in inward migration.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,451
    williamglenn said:

    The Tories have been in the grip of swivel-eyed lunacy over the EU for decades now. This was in 1999:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/anti-europeans-must-be-reined-in-warns-clarke-738277.html

    Mr Clarke opposed growing demands by sceptics for a future Tory government to renegotiate the Treaty of Rome, suggesting this was code for their goal of leaving the EU.

    But the divide on Europe widened when John Maples, the shadow Foreign Secretary, announced that one of the first acts of an incoming Tory government would be to negotiate an amendment to the treaty allowing member states to opt out of future EU legislation.

    Mr Maples toned down his speech, dropping plans to compare the threat to Britain from the EU to that from Nazi Germany. His original draft said that although his generation had not fought to secure Britain's freedom, it faced "a threat to our freedom and independence every bit as great".

    It's logical for a conservative (small or large c) party to be anti-EU. Most centre right people value tradition, sovereignty and self-government more than they value the free movement of people and capital and internationalism.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    The fact that Conservative voters feel so strongly in favour of Brexit is bad news for Labour, who it should be remembered need to win 60 marginal seats next time mainly from the Tories rather than -as in June -piling up votes in seats it already holds.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,664
    Sean_F said:

    williamglenn said:

    The Tories have been in the grip of swivel-eyed lunacy over the EU for decades now. This was in 1999:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/anti-europeans-must-be-reined-in-warns-clarke-738277.html

    Mr Clarke opposed growing demands by sceptics for a future Tory government to renegotiate the Treaty of Rome, suggesting this was code for their goal of leaving the EU.

    But the divide on Europe widened when John Maples, the shadow Foreign Secretary, announced that one of the first acts of an incoming Tory government would be to negotiate an amendment to the treaty allowing member states to opt out of future EU legislation.

    Mr Maples toned down his speech, dropping plans to compare the threat to Britain from the EU to that from Nazi Germany. His original draft said that although his generation had not fought to secure Britain's freedom, it faced "a threat to our freedom and independence every bit as great".

    It's logical for a conservative (small or large c) party to be anti-EU. Most centre right people value tradition, sovereignty and self-government more than they value the free movement of people and capital and internationalism.
    [Sucks teeth in] Well, up to a point... :)

    British Conservatism also contains a group in favour of free-trade, light-touch government, low-tax, pro-business, ourward-facing and a strong attraction to the Atlantic Alliance. That (basically Thatcherite) stance has also been an important strand in British Conservative thought, and was in ascendancy in the 70's, 80's and 90's. Although I do agree with your implication that that strand is currently in abeyance (which is one reason why I keep calling May a Christian Democrat)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,130
    edited August 2017
    viewcode said:

    tlg86 said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    The Brexit devaluation of the pound is making UK a lot less attractive to EU migrants and is going to add enormously to the challenges facing the NHS this winter. The international exchange value of their earnings has been slashed by getting on for quarter.
    Not true. The latest migration figures showed that nearly the same number of EU residents immigrated to Britain between January and March of 2017 as did in January to March of 2016:

    https://1drv.ms/x/s!Av4jQcUMVtBpiBtBI6GQaRTA-_MO
    I mentioned this some months/years ago. Migrants *circulate*: they move to place B, but continue to visit Place A, with frequency decreasing as time goes on. If a deadline is known beforehand then migrants *here* stop visiting *there* (fearing that they will not be let back in) and wannabe migrants *there* start migrating *here* faster (in order to beat the deadline). The result is a short-term bulge in inward migration.
    Actually, that's not happening. Slightly more EU citizens left Britain in January to March 2017 than in the same three months of 2016. Essentially, the most recent three months of data suggest we're back to where we were before the vote. Now, it might be that the migration that happens in those three months is different to the migration that happens in the other nine months of the year so it would be foolish to assume that the figure for April to June will be comparable with those months in 2016. And of course Brexit might start to get more prominence in the EU over the coming months which might have an effect too.

    ONS report the migration statistics as a rolling annual total. This is sensible as it takes out the seasonal variations in the data. However, the downside to reporting it as they do is that we will get four quarters of "net migration is down" headlines followed by four quarters of "net migration is up" headlines.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,775
    stevef said:

    The fact that Conservative voters feel so strongly in favour of Brexit is bad news for Labour, who it should be remembered need to win 60 marginal seats next time mainly from the Tories rather than -as in June -piling up votes in seats it already holds.

    Con leavers are hopeless for labour perhaps. Maybe they can win con remainders over?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,664
    edited August 2017
    Some of you may fondly remember the 2006 American documentary series "Battleplan". I find to some glee that the entire thing is on YouTube. You can find it here: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLDx09dtcE4z7Nq9Uy4AXyED4Gw-jJuF0a

    Well, that's my background-sounds-whilst-working sorted out... :)

    [EDIT: link to list, not individual entry]
  • MP_SE2MP_SE2 Posts: 77
    RobD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/902188687970193408

    Taking every word from the European side as gospel, are we? :)
    Of course. Even if leading eurocrats such as Juncker have said that when things get serious you have to lie.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,451
    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    williamglenn said:

    The Tories have been in the grip of swivel-eyed lunacy over the EU for decades now. This was in 1999:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/anti-europeans-must-be-reined-in-warns-clarke-738277.html

    Mr Clarke opposed growing demands by sceptics for a future Tory government to renegotiate the Treaty of Rome, suggesting this was code for their goal of leaving the EU.

    But the divide on Europe widened when John Maples, the shadow Foreign Secretary, announced that one of the first acts of an incoming Tory government would be to negotiate an amendment to the treaty allowing member states to opt out of future EU legislation.

    Mr Maples toned down his speech, dropping plans to compare the threat to Britain from the EU to that from Nazi Germany. His original draft said that although his generation had not fought to secure Britain's freedom, it faced "a threat to our freedom and independence every bit as great".

    It's logical for a conservative (small or large c) party to be anti-EU. Most centre right people value tradition, sovereignty and self-government more than they value the free movement of people and capital and internationalism.
    [Sucks teeth in] Well, up to a point... :)

    British Conservatism also contains a group in favour of free-trade, light-touch government, low-tax, pro-business, ourward-facing and a strong attraction to the Atlantic Alliance. That (basically Thatcherite) stance has also been an important strand in British Conservative thought, and was in ascendancy in the 70's, 80's and 90's. Although I do agree with your implication that that strand is currently in abeyance (which is one reason why I keep calling May a Christian Democrat)
    It's a conflict within any broadly- centre right party, and within the heart of any centre-right voter. Just how much self-government should you sacrifice for the sake of economic advantage.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,664
    edited August 2017
    tlg86 said:

    viewcode said:

    tlg86 said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    The Brexit devaluation of the pound is making UK a lot less attractive to EU migrants and is going to add enormously to the challenges facing the NHS this winter. The international exchange value of their earnings has been slashed by getting on for quarter.
    Not true. The latest migration figures showed that nearly the same number of EU residents immigrated to Britain between January and March of 2017 as did in January to March of 2016:

    https://1drv.ms/x/s!Av4jQcUMVtBpiBtBI6GQaRTA-_MO
    I mentioned this some months/years ago. Migrants *circulate*: they move to place B, but continue to visit Place A, with frequency decreasing as time goes on. If a deadline is known beforehand then migrants *here* stop visiting *there* (fearing that they will not be let back in) and wannabe migrants *there* start migrating *here* faster (in order to beat the deadline). The result is a short-term bulge in inward migration.
    Actually, that's not happening. Slightly more EU citizens left Britain in January to March 2017 than in the same three months of 2016. Essentially, the most recent three months of data suggest we're back to where we were before the vote. Now, it might be that the migration that happens in those three months is different to the migration that happens in the other nine months of the year so it would be foolish to assume that the figure for April to June will be comparable with those months in 2016. And of course Brexit might start to get more prominence in the EU over the coming months which might have an effect too.

    ONS report the migration statistics as a rolling annual total. This is sensible as it takes out the seasonal variations in the data. However, the downside to reporting it as they do is that we will get four quarters of "net migration is down" headlines followed by four quarters of "net migration is up" headlines.
    Thank you. I hate it when a beautiful theory is derailed by an inconvenient fact... :)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Home!!
    https://twitter.com/spajw/status/902210746062434304
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,130
    Sean_F said:

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    williamglenn said:

    The Tories have been in the grip of swivel-eyed lunacy over the EU for decades now. This was in 1999:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/anti-europeans-must-be-reined-in-warns-clarke-738277.html

    Mr Clarke opposed growing demands by sceptics for a future Tory government to renegotiate the Treaty of Rome, suggesting this was code for their goal of leaving the EU.

    But the divide on Europe widened when John Maples, the shadow Foreign Secretary, announced that one of the first acts of an incoming Tory government would be to negotiate an amendment to the treaty allowing member states to opt out of future EU legislation.

    Mr Maples toned down his speech, dropping plans to compare the threat to Britain from the EU to that from Nazi Germany. His original draft said that although his generation had not fought to secure Britain's freedom, it faced "a threat to our freedom and independence every bit as great".

    It's logical for a conservative (small or large c) party to be anti-EU. Most centre right people value tradition, sovereignty and self-government more than they value the free movement of people and capital and internationalism.
    [Sucks teeth in] Well, up to a point... :)

    British Conservatism also contains a group in favour of free-trade, light-touch government, low-tax, pro-business, ourward-facing and a strong attraction to the Atlantic Alliance. That (basically Thatcherite) stance has also been an important strand in British Conservative thought, and was in ascendancy in the 70's, 80's and 90's. Although I do agree with your implication that that strand is currently in abeyance (which is one reason why I keep calling May a Christian Democrat)
    It's a conflict within any broadly- centre right party, and within the heart of any centre-right voter. Just how much self-government should you sacrifice for the sake of economic advantage.
    The problem for me is that we ended up with the worst of both worlds. I could have been tempted to vote Remain had the Tories promised to drastically scale back the welfare state (including tax credits). But instead we've had to put up with the high rates of immigration and we've had to carry on paying benefits.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    edited August 2017
    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    Remember when Mike used to tell us nobody cared about the EU? ;)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,130
    viewcode said:

    tlg86 said:

    viewcode said:

    tlg86 said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    The Brexit devaluation of the pound is making UK a lot less attractive to EU migrants and is going to add enormously to the challenges facing the NHS this winter. The international exchange value of their earnings has been slashed by getting on for quarter.
    Not true. The latest migration figures showed that nearly the same number of EU residents immigrated to Britain between January and March of 2017 as did in January to March of 2016:

    https://1drv.ms/x/s!Av4jQcUMVtBpiBtBI6GQaRTA-_MO
    I mentioned this some months/years ago. Migrants *circulate*: they move to place B, but continue to visit Place A, with frequency decreasing as time goes on. If a deadline is known beforehand then migrants *here* stop visiting *there* (fearing that they will not be let back in) and wannabe migrants *there* start migrating *here* faster (in order to beat the deadline). The result is a short-term bulge in inward migration.
    Actually, that's not happening. Slightly more EU citizens left Britain in January to March 2017 than in the same three months of 2016. Essentially, the most recent three months of data suggest we're back to where we were before the vote. Now, it might be that the migration that happens in those three months is different to the migration that happens in the other nine months of the year so it would be foolish to assume that the figure for April to June will be comparable with those months in 2016. And of course Brexit might start to get more prominence in the EU over the coming months which might have an effect too.

    ONS report the migration statistics as a rolling annual total. This is sensible as it takes out the seasonal variations in the data. However, the downside to reporting it as they do is that we will get four quarters of "net migration is down" headlines followed by four quarters of "net migration is up" headlines.
    Thank you. I hate it when a beautiful theory is derailed by an inconvenient fact... :)
    Your theory might come to fruition once a date for departure is set. That might focus some minds. Whilst we're obsessing about Brexit, I suspect the rest of Europe (and the world) has forgotten about it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,451
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    Remember when Mike used to tell us nobody cared about the EU? ;)
    It turned out that they cared a great deal.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    edited August 2017
    Sean_F said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    Remember when Mike used to tell us nobody cared about the EU? ;)
    It turned out that they cared a great deal.
    Yeah and it was always obvious they did because you can't separate "the EU" from all the other things that concern voters like immigration, NHS, the economy, crime and punishment, etc.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Japan urges UK to 'recalibrate its basic position' on Brexit - https://www.ft.com/content/0047b3c2-8b1e-11e7-a352-e46f43c5825d
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    Remember when Mike used to tell us nobody cared about the EU? ;)
    Remember when the PB Tories were looking forward towards a 150+ majority
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,848
    JosiasJessop said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Y0kel said:

    FPT because it bears repeating:

    Trumpton

    Back in August 2016 I posted a few names of associates that would come back and haunt Trump. One was Russian mobster and Trump partner/advisor Felix Sater.

    Sater has reportedly turned supergrass.

    Thanks Yokel. Your posts here are a must read.
    +1

    I'd love to know Yokel's background - if he could tell us, that is! He seems more on the ball than most.
    Suggest the fact that he is will mean no chance.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,180
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    The Brexit devaluation of the pound is making UK a lot less attractive to EU migrants and is going to add enormously to the challenges facing the NHS this winter. The international exchange value of their earnings has been slashed by getting on for quarter.
    Which would give higher pay rises and lower housing costs than they would otherwise be.

    I think they would be good things, how about you Mike ?

    But you seem to be predicting net emigration from the UK this year - if so would you like to have a bet on that ?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,180
    Is Joe Root a PBer ?

    All of us who have laid the draw will like that declaration.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Sean_F said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    Remember when Mike used to tell us nobody cared about the EU? ;)
    It turned out that they cared a great deal.
    What they cared about was another £350m a week into the NHS. That was what the official leave campaign said it was about and was the main thrust on their bus and in their TV broadcasts. The official campaign barely mentioned immigration.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    nigel4england said:

    RobD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/902188687970193408

    Taking every word from the European side as gospel, are we? :)
    Of course he is, remember the golden rule:

    EU = good

    UK = bad

    The same childish rubbish day after day, and I am afraid OGH sets the tone.
    David Allen Green did a good thread on this. For better or worse there is very little flexibility in the EU position, we really have to decide if it works for us or whether we prefer to have WTO Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/901886935735705600
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,678
    MikeSmithson said:

    Sean_F said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    Remember when Mike used to tell us nobody cared about the EU? ;)
    It turned out that they cared a great deal.
    What they cared about was another £350m a week into the NHS. That was what the official leave campaign said it was about and was the main thrust on their bus and in their TV broadcasts. The official campaign barely mentioned immigration.
    They didn't have to. The campaign wasn't fought in a vacuum.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    another_richard said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    The Brexit devaluation of the pound is making UK a lot less attractive to EU migrants and is going to add enormously to the challenges facing the NHS this winter. The international exchange value of their earnings has been slashed by getting on for quarter.
    Which would give higher pay rises and lower housing costs than they would otherwise be.

    I think they would be good things, how about you Mike ?

    But you seem to be predicting net emigration from the UK this year - if so would you like to have a bet on that ?
    I don't bet with fellow PBers after being robbed of £500 a few years ago and I only bet if I can see value.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,180
    Sean_F said:

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    williamglenn said:

    The Tories have been in the grip of swivel-eyed lunacy over the EU for decades now. This was in 1999:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/anti-europeans-must-be-reined-in-warns-clarke-738277.html

    Mr Clarke opposed growing demands by sceptics for a future Tory government to renegotiate the Treaty of Rome, suggesting this was code for their goal of leaving the EU.

    But the divide on Europe widened when John Maples, the shadow Foreign Secretary, announced that one of the first acts of an incoming Tory government would be to negotiate an amendment to the treaty allowing member states to opt out of future EU legislation.

    Mr Maples toned down his speech, dropping plans to compare the threat to Britain from the EU to that from Nazi Germany. His original draft said that although his generation had not fought to secure Britain's freedom, it faced "a threat to our freedom and independence every bit as great".

    It's logical for a conservative (small or large c) party to be anti-EU. Most centre right people value tradition, sovereignty and self-government more than they value the free movement of people and capital and internationalism.
    [Sucks teeth in] Well, up to a point... :)

    British Conservatism also contains a group in favour of free-trade, light-touch government, low-tax, pro-business, ourward-facing and a strong attraction to the Atlantic Alliance. That (basically Thatcherite) stance has also been an important strand in British Conservative thought, and was in ascendancy in the 70's, 80's and 90's. Although I do agree with your implication that that strand is currently in abeyance (which is one reason why I keep calling May a Christian Democrat)
    It's a conflict within any broadly- centre right party, and within the heart of any centre-right voter. Just how much self-government should you sacrifice for the sake of economic advantage.
    That depends on who is getting the economic advantage.

    I doubt many centre-right voters will support more money for the 1% if it means lower pay rises for themselves.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,678
    foxinsoxuk said:

    nigel4england said:

    RobD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/902188687970193408

    Taking every word from the European side as gospel, are we? :)
    Of course he is, remember the golden rule:

    EU = good

    UK = bad

    The same childish rubbish day after day, and I am afraid OGH sets the tone.
    David Allen Green did a good thread on this. For better or worse there is very little flexibility in the EU position, we really have to decide if it works for us or whether we prefer to have WTO Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/901886935735705600
    I'm not sure the fact they have documents in various places necessarily means they are not flexible.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,180
    MikeSmithson said:

    another_richard said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    The Brexit devaluation of the pound is making UK a lot less attractive to EU migrants and is going to add enormously to the challenges facing the NHS this winter. The international exchange value of their earnings has been slashed by getting on for quarter.
    Which would give higher pay rises and lower housing costs than they would otherwise be.

    I think they would be good things, how about you Mike ?

    But you seem to be predicting net emigration from the UK this year - if so would you like to have a bet on that ?
    I don't bet with fellow PBers after being robbed of £500 a few years ago and I only bet if I can see value.
    Well I don't blame you for being cautious.

    I've marked a couple of people I know as pricks after they thought they can welch on pub bets with the phrase "I wasn't being serious".
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,678
    another_richard said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    another_richard said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    The Brexit devaluation of the pound is making UK a lot less attractive to EU migrants and is going to add enormously to the challenges facing the NHS this winter. The international exchange value of their earnings has been slashed by getting on for quarter.
    Which would give higher pay rises and lower housing costs than they would otherwise be.

    I think they would be good things, how about you Mike ?

    But you seem to be predicting net emigration from the UK this year - if so would you like to have a bet on that ?
    I don't bet with fellow PBers after being robbed of £500 a few years ago and I only bet if I can see value.
    Well I don't blame you for being cautious.

    I've marked a couple of people I know as pricks after they thought they can welch on pub bets with the phrase "I wasn't being serious".
    Doesn't someone typically serve as escrow for PB bets?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    RobD said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    nigel4england said:

    RobD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/902188687970193408

    Taking every word from the European side as gospel, are we? :)
    Of course he is, remember the golden rule:

    EU = good

    UK = bad

    The same childish rubbish day after day, and I am afraid OGH sets the tone.
    David Allen Green did a good thread on this. For better or worse there is very little flexibility in the EU position, we really have to decide if it works for us or whether we prefer to have WTO Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/901886935735705600
    I'm not sure the fact they have documents in various places necessarily means they are not flexible.
    If you read the thread, their position papers are agreed by all members, by several different organs of the EU. Not fixed, but not easily changed without extensive consultation. The length of that probably exceeds the span of time available. So unless an issue really is a deal breaker, then it is not worth arguing over.

    In practice, it will be take it or leave it, and with WTO Brexit as default, that is where the probable outcome lies.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,152
    another_richard said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    another_richard said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    The Brexit devaluation of the pound is making UK a lot less attractive to EU migrants and is going to add enormously to the challenges facing the NHS this winter. The international exchange value of their earnings has been slashed by getting on for quarter.
    Which would give higher pay rises and lower housing costs than they would otherwise be.

    I think they would be good things, how about you Mike ?

    But you seem to be predicting net emigration from the UK this year - if so would you like to have a bet on that ?
    I don't bet with fellow PBers after being robbed of £500 a few years ago and I only bet if I can see value.
    Well I don't blame you for being cautious.

    I've marked a couple of people I know as pricks after they thought they can welch on pub bets with the phrase "I wasn't being serious".
    You would have got on well with this man:

    https://m.warhistoryonline.com/world-war-ii/eisenhower-lost-a-bet-and-had-to-give-montgomery-his-own-b-17.html
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,678
    foxinsoxuk said:

    RobD said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    nigel4england said:

    RobD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/902188687970193408

    Taking every word from the European side as gospel, are we? :)
    Of course he is, remember the golden rule:

    EU = good

    UK = bad

    The same childish rubbish day after day, and I am afraid OGH sets the tone.
    David Allen Green did a good thread on this. For better or worse there is very little flexibility in the EU position, we really have to decide if it works for us or whether we prefer to have WTO Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/901886935735705600
    I'm not sure the fact they have documents in various places necessarily means they are not flexible.
    If you read the thread, their position papers are agreed by all members, by several different organs of the EU. Not fixed, but not easily changed without extensive consultation. The length of that probably exceeds the span of time available. So unless an issue really is a deal breaker, then it is not worth arguing over.

    In practice, it will be take it or leave it, and with WTO Brexit as default, that is where the probable outcome lies.
    This is the EU... famous for last-minute fudges.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    stevef said:

    The fact that Conservative voters feel so strongly in favour of Brexit is bad news for Labour, who it should be remembered need to win 60 marginal seats next time mainly from the Tories rather than -as in June -piling up votes in seats it already holds.

    Your knowledge is very poor. If Labour were to get a majority, 20 or so seats will come from the SNP.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    RobD said:

    another_richard said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    another_richard said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    The Brexit devaluation of the pound is making UK a lot less attractive to EU migrants and is going to add enormously to the challenges facing the NHS this winter. The international exchange value of their earnings has been slashed by getting on for quarter.
    Which would give higher pay rises and lower housing costs than they would otherwise be.

    I think they would be good things, how about you Mike ?

    But you seem to be predicting net emigration from the UK this year - if so would you like to have a bet on that ?
    I don't bet with fellow PBers after being robbed of £500 a few years ago and I only bet if I can see value.
    Well I don't blame you for being cautious.

    I've marked a couple of people I know as pricks after they thought they can welch on pub bets with the phrase "I wasn't being serious".
    Doesn't someone typically serve as escrow for PB bets?
    Peter the Punter used to but I'm not sure if he does anymore. My £500 bet was before that.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,678
    surbiton said:

    stevef said:

    The fact that Conservative voters feel so strongly in favour of Brexit is bad news for Labour, who it should be remembered need to win 60 marginal seats next time mainly from the Tories rather than -as in June -piling up votes in seats it already holds.

    Your knowledge is very poor. If Labour were to get a majority, 20 or so seats will come from the SNP.
    40/60 sounds like "mainly" to me.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    surbiton said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    Remember when Mike used to tell us nobody cared about the EU? ;)
    Remember when the PB Tories were looking forward towards a 150+ majority
    Yeah but who knew Theresa could come out with an even worse campaign than Cameron managed in 2010? ;)
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    surbiton said:

    stevef said:

    The fact that Conservative voters feel so strongly in favour of Brexit is bad news for Labour, who it should be remembered need to win 60 marginal seats next time mainly from the Tories rather than -as in June -piling up votes in seats it already holds.

    Your knowledge is very poor. If Labour were to get a majority, 20 or so seats will come from the SNP.
    It's been calculated that if the Scottish GE vote splits CON/LAB/SNP 30% each then the SNP will be reduced to just 6 MPs. That's why the SNP is never going to back an early election.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    GIN1138 said:

    surbiton said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    Remember when Mike used to tell us nobody cared about the EU? ;)
    Remember when the PB Tories were looking forward towards a 150+ majority
    Yeah but who knew Theresa could come out with an even worse campaign than Cameron managed in 2010? ;)
    Cameron's Tories had net gains of 96 seats at GE2010. Somewhat better than TMay on June 8th
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    surbiton said:

    stevef said:

    The fact that Conservative voters feel so strongly in favour of Brexit is bad news for Labour, who it should be remembered need to win 60 marginal seats next time mainly from the Tories rather than -as in June -piling up votes in seats it already holds.

    Your knowledge is very poor. If Labour were to get a majority, 20 or so seats will come from the SNP.
    Many others would come from Tory Remainers, or the substantial minority that really aren't that bothered about Europe, or simply bored and want to move on to other matters.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,180
    ydoethur said:

    another_richard said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    another_richard said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    The Brexit devaluation of the pound is making UK a lot less attractive to EU migrants and is going to add enormously to the challenges facing the NHS this winter. The international exchange value of their earnings has been slashed by getting on for quarter.
    Which would give higher pay rises and lower housing costs than they would otherwise be.

    I think they would be good things, how about you Mike ?

    But you seem to be predicting net emigration from the UK this year - if so would you like to have a bet on that ?
    I don't bet with fellow PBers after being robbed of £500 a few years ago and I only bet if I can see value.
    Well I don't blame you for being cautious.

    I've marked a couple of people I know as pricks after they thought they can welch on pub bets with the phrase "I wasn't being serious".
    You would have got on well with this man:

    https://m.warhistoryonline.com/world-war-ii/eisenhower-lost-a-bet-and-had-to-give-montgomery-his-own-b-17.html
    And he was quite right.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,941
    edited August 2017
    MikeSmithson said:

    GIN1138 said:

    surbiton said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    Remember when Mike used to tell us nobody cared about the EU? ;)
    Remember when the PB Tories were looking forward towards a 150+ majority
    Yeah but who knew Theresa could come out with an even worse campaign than Cameron managed in 2010? ;)
    Cameron's Tories had net gains of 96 seats at GE2010. Somewhat better than TMay on June 8th
    Cameron won 306 seats in 2010, 12 fewer than the 318 May won in 2017. Cameron's 2015 campaign was far more effective than his 2010 campaign
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,941
    foxinsoxuk said:

    surbiton said:

    stevef said:

    The fact that Conservative voters feel so strongly in favour of Brexit is bad news for Labour, who it should be remembered need to win 60 marginal seats next time mainly from the Tories rather than -as in June -piling up votes in seats it already holds.

    Your knowledge is very poor. If Labour were to get a majority, 20 or so seats will come from the SNP.
    Many others would come from Tory Remainers, or the substantial minority that really aren't that bothered about Europe, or simply bored and want to move on to other matters.
    If Tory Remainers did not vote Labour or LD in 2017 why should they in 2020? If Corbyn abandons ending FOM on the other hand some Labour Leavers who stuck with him last time may switch next time if the Tories have ended FOM by then
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,941
    edited August 2017
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    Remember when Mike used to tell us nobody cared about the EU? ;)
    EU/Brexit + immigration is the biggest issue today
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,664
    foxinsoxuk said:

    David Allen Green did a good thread on this. For better or worse there is very little flexibility in the EU position, we really have to decide if it works for us or whether we prefer to have WTO Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/901886935735705600

    I put it more succinctly months ago.

    When They've Worked Out What The Deal Is They Will Let Us Know.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    GIN1138 said:

    surbiton said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    Remember when Mike used to tell us nobody cared about the EU? ;)
    Remember when the PB Tories were looking forward towards a 150+ majority
    Yeah but who knew Theresa could come out with an even worse campaign than Cameron managed in 2010? ;)
    Cameron's Tories had net gains of 96 seats at GE2010. Somewhat better than TMay on June 8th
    Cameron won 306 seats in 2010, 12 fewer than the 318 May won in 2017. Cameron's 2015 campaign was far more effective than his 2010 campaign
    Straw-clutching
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    Remember when Mike used to tell us nobody cared about the EU? ;)
    EU/Brexit + immigration is the biggest issue today
    WRONG AGAIN.

    Biggest issue is the NHS

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/nhs-and-brexit-remain-biggest-issues-facing-country
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    viewcode said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    David Allen Green did a good thread on this. For better or worse there is very little flexibility in the EU position, we really have to decide if it works for us or whether we prefer to have WTO Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/901886935735705600

    I put it more succinctly months ago.

    When They've Worked Out What The Deal Is They Will Let Us Know.

    The government are going for WTO Brexit. It is the only goal that fits their current behaviour.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    GIN1138 said:

    surbiton said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    Remember when Mike used to tell us nobody cared about the EU? ;)
    Remember when the PB Tories were looking forward towards a 150+ majority
    Yeah but who knew Theresa could come out with an even worse campaign than Cameron managed in 2010? ;)
    Cameron's Tories had net gains of 96 seats at GE2010. Somewhat better than TMay on June 8th
    Cameron won 306 seats in 2010, 12 fewer than the 318 May won in 2017. Cameron's 2015 campaign was far more effective than his 2010 campaign
    Straw-clutching
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    Remember when Mike used to tell us nobody cared about the EU? ;)
    EU/Brexit + immigration is the biggest issue today
    WRONG AGAIN.

    Biggest issue is the NHS

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/nhs-and-brexit-remain-biggest-issues-facing-country
    Look at your own thread header @MikeSmithson - there are a lot of people out there who would rather suffer than be associated with the EU.

    For rational people, Europe is way down the list.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Beverley_C said:

    viewcode said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    David Allen Green did a good thread on this. For better or worse there is very little flexibility in the EU position, we really have to decide if it works for us or whether we prefer to have WTO Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/901886935735705600

    I put it more succinctly months ago.

    When They've Worked Out What The Deal Is They Will Let Us Know.

    The government are going for WTO Brexit. It is the only goal that fits their current behaviour.
    As Columbo would say, "There's just one more thing..." The government isn't making any practical preparations for such an outcome which should tell you that even if their political behaviour points in that direction, that cannot be the real goal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,941
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    GIN1138 said:

    surbiton said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    Remember when Mike used to tell us nobody cared about the EU? ;)
    Remember when the PB Tories were looking forward towards a 150+ majority
    Yeah but who knew Theresa could come out with an even worse campaign than Cameron managed in 2010? ;)
    Cameron's Tories had net gains of 96 seats at GE2010. Somewhat better than TMay on June 8th
    Cameron won 306 seats in 2010, 12 fewer than the 318 May won in 2017. Cameron's 2015 campaign was far more effective than his 2010 campaign
    Straw-clutching
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    Remember when Mike used to tell us nobody cared about the EU? ;)
    EU/Brexit + immigration is the biggest issue today
    WRONG AGAIN.

    Biggest issue is the NHS

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/nhs-and-brexit-remain-biggest-issues-facing-country
    Not wrong actually, 41% say the EU/Brexit is a concern and 28% immigration, giving a combined 69%, 18% more than the 50% who say the NHS is a concern.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited August 2017
    It looks to me like the 31% of Con leavers answering "No I would not" are the voters who will deliver a majority Labour government at the next election.

    Labour need to relentlessly pound the tories for "making the country poorer"
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    Can we get the poll on:

    Would you consider the death of your first child as a PRICE WORTH PAYING for remaining in the EU ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,941
    Pong said:

    The 31% of Con leavers answering "No I would not" is where labour's majority comes from.

    Only assuming they all lose their job which is highly unlikely, it is more likely the 23% of Labour Leavers will be voting at a general election with the Tories having ended FOM and Labour committed to continuing it for years
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,848
    Beverley_C said:

    viewcode said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    David Allen Green did a good thread on this. For better or worse there is very little flexibility in the EU position, we really have to decide if it works for us or whether we prefer to have WTO Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/901886935735705600

    I put it more succinctly months ago.

    When They've Worked Out What The Deal Is They Will Let Us Know.

    The government are going for WTO Brexit. It is the only goal that fits their current behaviour.
    Not many on here can work that out.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,451
    MikeSmithson said:

    Sean_F said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    Remember when Mike used to tell us nobody cared about the EU? ;)
    It turned out that they cared a great deal.
    What they cared about was another £350m a week into the NHS. That was what the official leave campaign said it was about and was the main thrust on their bus and in their TV broadcasts. The official campaign barely mentioned immigration.
    What they cared about was that they disliked the EU.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    "All this is important because in the weeks ahead TMay’s government is going to face the huge challenge of getting the “Great” Repeal Act through the Commons and the Lords and will require very skilled party management. Labour appears to be preparing the ground for a tough parliamentary battle," says OGH.

    Just so. It is high time that Labour started a tough parliamentary battle. For the last two years they have been no more than Mrs May`s poodle.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    "Brexit Is Beginning to Look Like No Brexit: The debate over transition periods reveals a deeper truth: The 2016 vote may have been pointless"

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-08-28/brexit-is-beginning-to-look-like-no-brexit
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    edited August 2017
    foxinsoxuk said:

    nigel4england said:

    RobD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/902188687970193408

    Taking every word from the European side as gospel, are we? :)
    Of course he is, remember the golden rule:

    EU = good

    UK = bad

    The same childish rubbish day after day, and I am afraid OGH sets the tone.
    David Allen Green did a good thread on this. For better or worse there is very little flexibility in the EU position, we really have to decide if it works for us or whether we prefer to have WTO Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/901886935735705600
    The fudge won't be in the outcomes. The fudge is that this is a negotiation at all. It's more a sorting out of things, at least from the EU's point of view. What happens to the aspidistra, type of thing. We think it's important a deal is seen to be made.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Joint EU UK Press Conference - the BBC only carries a video excerpt from one side.

    Go on, guess!

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-41070227
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    williamglenn said:

    Beverley_C said:

    viewcode said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    David Allen Green did a good thread on this. For better or worse there is very little flexibility in the EU position, we really have to decide if it works for us or whether we prefer to have WTO Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/901886935735705600

    I put it more succinctly months ago.

    When They've Worked Out What The Deal Is They Will Let Us Know.

    The government are going for WTO Brexit. It is the only goal that fits their current behaviour.
    As Columbo would say, "There's just one more thing..." The government isn't making any practical preparations for such an outcome which should tell you that even if their political behaviour points in that direction, that cannot be the real goal.
    The lack of preparation for WTO Brexit is probably just incompetence combined with delusion about "cake and eat it".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,941
    williamglenn said:

    "Brexit Is Beginning to Look Like No Brexit: The debate over transition periods reveals a deeper truth: The 2016 vote may have been pointless"

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-08-28/brexit-is-beginning-to-look-like-no-brexit

    This from Bloomberg, the media group of the arch globalist and establishment 'centrist' Michael Bloomberg. Though even this journalist states 'One could argue that the Brexit vote has alarmed EU citizens enough to consider leaving the U.K. or simply staying away in the first place. But "Brexodus" may well be a myth. Though the latest data show a substantial drop in net migration from Eastern Europe, there is still a net inflow. Perhaps, for some Brexit voters, this reduction in immigration is adequate compensation for the current uncertainties and the loss of the U.K.'s vote.'
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    FF43 said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    nigel4england said:

    RobD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/902188687970193408

    Taking every word from the European side as gospel, are we? :)
    Of course he is, remember the golden rule:

    EU = good

    UK = bad

    The same childish rubbish day after day, and I am afraid OGH sets the tone.
    David Allen Green did a good thread on this. For better or worse there is very little flexibility in the EU position, we really have to decide if it works for us or whether we prefer to have WTO Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/901886935735705600
    The fudge won't be in the outcomes. The fudge is that this is a negotiation at all. It's more a sorting out of things, at least from the EU's point of view. What happens to the aspidistra, type of thing. We think it's important a deal is seen to be made.
    The piece by Leonid Bershidsky I posted below concurs with your long-standing view:

    It will last as long as it takes the U.K. and the EU to agree on a new trade deal; otherwise, a transition is pointless. But the U.K. cannot dictate the pace of the negotiations, and the EU isn't interested in dictating it as long as the transition period preserves current arrangements. The EU, after all, didn't initiate Brexit; it's happy for the U.K. to stay on current terms, and if it loses its vote, too, that'll only be a bonus.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Sean_F said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Sean_F said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    Remember when Mike used to tell us nobody cared about the EU? ;)
    It turned out that they cared a great deal.
    What they cared about was another £350m a week into the NHS. That was what the official leave campaign said it was about and was the main thrust on their bus and in their TV broadcasts. The official campaign barely mentioned immigration.
    What they cared about was that they disliked the EU.
    Much like the Gordon rioters who were against Popery, but not certain whether this was a man or a horse...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,941
    Sean_F said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Sean_F said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    Remember when Mike used to tell us nobody cared about the EU? ;)
    It turned out that they cared a great deal.
    What they cared about was another £350m a week into the NHS. That was what the official leave campaign said it was about and was the main thrust on their bus and in their TV broadcasts. The official campaign barely mentioned immigration.
    What they cared about was that they disliked the EU.
    Top 3 reasons for voting Leave given by Leave voters based on a referendum day survey of 12,369 voters

    1. The principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK.

    2. Voting to leave offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders.

    3. Remaining meant little or no choice about how the EU expanded its membership or powers.

    The £350 m a week for the NHS did not even feature

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    "Brexit Is Beginning to Look Like No Brexit: The debate over transition periods reveals a deeper truth: The 2016 vote may have been pointless"

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-08-28/brexit-is-beginning-to-look-like-no-brexit

    This from Bloomberg, the media group of the arch globalist and establishment 'centrist' Michael Bloomberg. Though even this journalist states 'One could argue that the Brexit vote has alarmed EU citizens enough to consider leaving the U.K. or simply staying away in the first place. But "Brexodus" may well be a myth. Though the latest data show a substantial drop in net migration from Eastern Europe, there is still a net inflow. Perhaps, for some Brexit voters, this reduction in immigration is adequate compensation for the current uncertainties and the loss of the U.K.'s vote.'
    A new word has entered the lexicon – Brexodus – to reflect the claim that Europeans are leaving in droves as they shun post-Brexit Britain.

    But it is a funny sort of Brexodus which leaves the number of European nationals in Britain at an all-time high. While the quarterly immigration figures did show a significant reduction in the scale of EU immigration to the UK, and a rise in the number of Europeans departing, those figures also showed that twice as many Europeans came to the UK as departed from it, with an estimated 122,000 EU nationals leaving the UK while 249,000 arrived in the year to March 2017.

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/08/debunking-the-brexodus-myth/
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,451
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Sean_F said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Sean_F said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    Remember when Mike used to tell us nobody cared about the EU? ;)
    It turned out that they cared a great deal.
    What they cared about was another £350m a week into the NHS. That was what the official leave campaign said it was about and was the main thrust on their bus and in their TV broadcasts. The official campaign barely mentioned immigration.
    What they cared about was that they disliked the EU.
    Much like the Gordon rioters who were against Popery, but not certain whether this was a man or a horse...
    Hostility towards the EU is pretty well-documented by Nat Soc Cen surveys.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,706
    edited August 2017
    foxinsoxuk said:

    RobD said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    nigel4england said:

    RobD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/902188687970193408

    Taking every word from the European side as gospel, are we? :)
    Of course he is, remember the golden rule:

    EU = good

    UK = bad

    The same childish rubbish day after day, and I am afraid OGH sets the tone.
    David Allen Green did a good thread on this. For better or worse there is very little flexibility in the EU position, we really have to decide if it works for us or whether we prefer to have WTO Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/901886935735705600
    I'm not sure the fact they have documents in various places necessarily means they are not flexible.
    If you read the thread, their position papers are agreed by all members, by several different organs of the EU. Not fixed, but not easily changed without extensive consultation. The length of that probably exceeds the span of time available. So unless an issue really is a deal breaker, then it is not worth arguing over.

    In practice, it will be take it or leave it, and with WTO Brexit as default, that is where the probable outcome lies.
    So the EU aren't really negotiating, just presenting the internally agreed position for us to accept as a fait accompli.

    That will work well.

    Excuse me if in future I take any protestations from them about lack of progress with contempt and reply with 'negotiation is not presentation of you position and implementation'
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    edited August 2017
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    GIN1138 said:

    surbiton said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    Remember when Mike used to tell us nobody cared about the EU? ;)
    Remember when the PB Tories were looking forward towards a 150+ majority
    Yeah but who knew Theresa could come out with an even worse campaign than Cameron managed in 2010? ;)
    Cameron's Tories had net gains of 96 seats at GE2010. Somewhat better than TMay on June 8th
    Cameron won 306 seats in 2010, 12 fewer than the 318 May won in 2017. Cameron's 2015 campaign was far more effective than his 2010 campaign
    Straw-clutching
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given some of those Labour Leave voters may feel they have already lost a job to an EU migrant though it depends how the question is phrased

    Remember when Mike used to tell us nobody cared about the EU? ;)
    EU/Brexit + immigration is the biggest issue today
    WRONG AGAIN.

    Biggest issue is the NHS

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/nhs-and-brexit-remain-biggest-issues-facing-country
    The NHS is intimately liked the EU/Brexit/Immigration as well though...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/902216203674025986
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Just watched the Edinburgh Tattoo, absolutley brilliant
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/902216203674025986

    Yeah right... ;)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,664
    Beverley_C said:

    viewcode said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    David Allen Green did a good thread on this. For better or worse there is very little flexibility in the EU position, we really have to decide if it works for us or whether we prefer to have WTO Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/901886935735705600

    I put it more succinctly months ago.

    When They've Worked Out What The Deal Is They Will Let Us Know.

    The government are going for WTO Brexit. It is the only goal that fits their current behaviour.
    I don't think any goal fits their current behavior.

    When a close relative was dying, I was thrashing about trying to work out timetables and the doctor had to take me aside and point out gently that this person was dying, dying quickly, and that there was nothing to do. I used to know a divorce lawyer and she told me about the point where you have to tell them that they can't stay married to somebody who doesn't want to be married to them. The UK Government has not yet hit these points and is oscillating between begging ("deep and special relationship") and anger ("stubborn and unreasonable"). Sooner or later it would be better if a neutral friend took Davies aside and quietly explained his position.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,706
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/902216203674025986

    Politicians deny leek.

    Shock horror.

    It seemed like an unlikely story before the denial, the existence of which gives it a little smidgen of credibility.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,664
    HYUFD said:

    Though the latest data show a substantial drop in net migration from Eastern Europe, there is still a net inflow. Perhaps, for some Brexit voters, this reduction in immigration is adequate compensation for the current uncertainties and the loss of the U.K.'s vote.'

    A reduction in net inward migration (provided it remains positive) is not a reduction in immigrants, it's an increase. The most that you can say is it's not going up as fast.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,941
    edited August 2017
    CarlottaVance said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    "Brexit Is Beginning to Look Like No Brexit: The debate over transition periods reveals a deeper truth: The 2016 vote may have been pointless"

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-08-28/brexit-is-beginning-to-look-like-no-brexit

    This from Bloomberg, the media group of the arch globalist and establishment 'centrist' Michael Bloomberg. Though even this journalist states 'One could argue that the Brexit vote has alarmed EU citizens enough to consider leaving the U.K. or simply staying away in the first place. But "Brexodus" may well be a myth. Though the latest data show a substantial drop in net migration from Eastern Europe, there is still a net inflow. Perhaps, for some Brexit voters, this reduction in immigration is adequate compensation for the current uncertainties and the loss of the U.K.'s vote.'
    A new word has entered the lexicon – Brexodus – to reflect the claim that Europeans are leaving in droves as they shun post-Brexit Britain.

    But it is a funny sort of Brexodus which leaves the number of European nationals in Britain at an all-time high. While the quarterly immigration figures did show a significant reduction in the scale of EU immigration to the UK, and a rise in the number of Europeans departing, those figures also showed that twice as many Europeans came to the UK as departed from it, with an estimated 122,000 EU nationals leaving the UK while 249,000 arrived in the year to March 2017.

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/08/debunking-the-brexodus-myth/
    Showing that an end to FOM is still needed for a number of years after Brexit
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,941
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/902216203674025986

    Perhaps that might boost Macron's 57% disapproval rating?

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/emmanuel-macron-popularity-approval-rating-record-lows-ifop-poll-election-landslide-a7915876.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,941
    edited August 2017
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Though the latest data show a substantial drop in net migration from Eastern Europe, there is still a net inflow. Perhaps, for some Brexit voters, this reduction in immigration is adequate compensation for the current uncertainties and the loss of the U.K.'s vote.'

    A reduction in net inward migration (provided it remains positive) is not a reduction in immigrants, it's an increase. The most that you can say is it's not going up as fast.
    It is the biggest drop in the rate of net migration for years but as I say still shows FOM needs to be controlled and reduced for a number of years post Brexit
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    We should all calm down about the negotiations, I did not want to leave but we have no influene on what happens. In the end he negotiators will either be heros or villains and will hve to face the consequences.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    http://www.cityam.com/270895/city-flexes-its-muscle-brexit-talks-resume-transitional

    City sources say that firms want a paper setting out the government’s intention for a transitional arrangement in financial services as soon as possible, so that a binding agreement with the EU can be completed this year. If a deal is not in place by the start of 2018, finance companies believe they will have to begin preparing for a hard Brexit in earnest. This would mean accelerating plans to shift operations from the UK to EU countries.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    viewcode said:

    Sooner or later it would be better if a neutral friend took Davies aside and quietly explained his position.

    Personally, I think it would be better if someone took Davies aside and fired him on the spot. In fact none of the Three Brexiteers seems to be any good at anything they do.

    What, in 12 months, have Fox, Boris and Davies accomplished? Anything of note?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,767
    edited August 2017
    JosiasJessop said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Y0kel said:

    FPT because it bears repeating:

    Trumpton

    Back in August 2016 I posted a few names of associates that would come back and haunt Trump. One was Russian mobster and Trump partner/advisor Felix Sater.

    Sater has reportedly turned supergrass.

    Thanks Yokel. Your posts here are a must read.
    +1

    I'd love to know Yokel's background - if he could tell us, that is! He seems more on the ball than most.
    Yes, often, though nobody's always right. IIRC he predicted that Assad was toast a couple of years ago, when that was the consensus of Western intelligence analysts.Yokel is very helpful in giving us insight into what our analysts are thinking, but that can sometimes show weaknesses in that.
This discussion has been closed.

© Vanilla Keystone Theme 2025