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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is a mistake to assume that LAB leave voters feel as strong

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  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    philiph said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    OchEye said:

    geoffw said:

    Why doesn't DD tell MB that we'll only consider the money once the rest of the deal is agreed?
    i) If it's a good deal for us we'd obviously be happy to talk turkey.
    ii) If not then we embrace WTO and they can go whistle.
    So (i) is win-win, and (ii) is lose-lose. Simples.

    Perhaps he has put this to them, which might explain why he appears sanguine.

    I think this is his intention this week.

    Sooner or later European Business is going to get involved banging heads together. 250 billion of EU trade is a huge amount of employment in EU states and these business's, their shareholders, and financiers are not going to sit on the sidelines much longer.

    Interesting that Jacob Rees Mogg seems to be increasing his support daily for PM as he becomes a cult figure. Just imagine Jacob Rees Morgan v Corbyn at PMQ's.

    It would be box office
    Corbyn would adjust his attack. For example, repeatedly asking the Mogg whether his nanny has given permission to do whatever. (JRH took his nanny when he was electioneering in Fife). It would be like shooting apples in a barrel.
    If you are explaining your gags in brackets, you are losing, and so would Corbyn be if he couldn't do better than that. Fish in a barrel btw.
    Shooting apples in a barrel would be easier than shooting fish. Fish dodge and you have to allow for refraction at the water/air interface.
    I didn't think a barrel of fish had any water in it.
    What would be the point of shooting dead fish?
    Though apparently the shockwave of a bullet hitting a barrel would kill fish even without a direct hit...

    http://www.discovery.com/tv-shows/mythbusters/mythbusters-database/shooting-killing-fish-barrel/
    I always assumed harpoon, rather than bullet, and that it was a funfair activity.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsEditor: #BREAKING Japanese media says the missile fired by #NorthKorea has now passed over Japan. Question is...where is it due to land?!

    What will the other psycho do now ?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,056
    HYUFD said:



    There cannot be a coherent national view of what Leave means because Remainers want Leave to mean basically almost exactly the same as the EU, ie full single market and customs union membership, while Leavers want to see clear returns of sovereignty, an end to free movement and reductions of payments to the EU, which means departure from the single market and customs union, at least in the short term. Given Leave won it will inevitably ultimately be a Brexit more suited to what Leavers want even if Remainers may not be happy with that.

    No, there is and remains no coherent view among those of us who voted LEAVE. We did not have a discussion before A50 was initiated on issues relating to our relationship with the EU and the rest of the world.

    The siren calls from within your party for tax cuts and de-regulation are starting and that seems to be a factor drawing support for JRM. That's not a Britain for everyone and not one I'd like to live in. Leaving the EU has to work for us all.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    viewcode said:

    I don't think any goal fits their current behavior.

    When a close relative was dying, I was thrashing about trying to work out timetables and the doctor had to take me aside and point out gently that this person was dying, dying quickly, and that there was nothing to do. I used to know a divorce lawyer and she told me about the point where you have to tell them that they can't stay married to somebody who doesn't want to be married to them. The UK Government has not yet hit these points and is oscillating between begging ("deep and special relationship") and anger ("stubborn and unreasonable"). Sooner or later it would be better if a neutral friend took Davies aside and quietly explained his position.

    The same person might then usefully take Michel Barrnier, and the EU27 prime ministers, aside, and point out that without a comprehensive trade deal, the UK has precisely zero incentive, and of course no legal liability, to pay a single euro as an exit fee.
    The Nabavi doctrine is just balls !
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,056
    HYUFD said:


    42% still voted against Labour when Corbyn was leading them, more than have ever voted for the Tories since 1992 when 41% voted against Kinnock

    May of course stated existing employment law and workers' rights would be guaranteed for as long as she was Conservative leader.

    I can imagine the siren attraction for some Tories of a new leader promising to cut taxes and regulation including changes to employment law and workers' rights. Corbyn was of course right to raise this and as a working man I'm anxious my rights are safeguarded and not eroded by the Conservatives.

  • Pong said:

    It looks to me like the 31% of Con leavers answering "No I would not" are the voters who will deliver a majority Labour government at the next election.

    Labour need to relentlessly pound the tories for "making the country poorer"

    If Labour were to seriously want to run on an economic platform which might appeal to Conservative voters, they would first need to ditch Corbyn and McDonell, and then apologise in the most grovelling fashion for ever being naive and cynical enough for putting them (and Diane Abbott, FFS!) forward as the core of a potential government.
    I'm not so sure... There are of course many voters (Conservative and otherwise) who cannot stand Corbyn, but there will also be many don't have that strong view and who will be open to persuasion by a combination of attractive Labour policies and the Tories' poor recent record in government.

    You might well say that the Labour promises are illusionary or that the Tories are not doing too badly given the circumstances but I think that there's a strong possibility Labour can win (and take votes from the Tories) without ditching Corbyn.
    It may be a possibility but equally in these strange times PM Jacob Rees Mogg could materialize !!!!!!!!!
    Yes, but only ahead of a GE... not afterwards imo.
    Who knows what may happen
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    edited August 2017
    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    It looks to me like the 31% of Con leavers answering "No I would not" are the voters who will deliver a majority Labour government at the next election.

    Labour need to relentlessly pound the tories for "making the country poorer"

    If Labour were to seriously want to run on an economic platform which might appeal to Conservative voters, they would first need to ditch Corbyn and McDonell, and then apologise in the most grovelling fashion for ever being naive and cynical enough for putting them (and Diane Abbott, FFS!) forward as the core of a potential government.
    I'm not so sure... There are of course many voters (Conservative and otherwise) who cannot stand Corbyn, but there will also be many don't have that strong view and who will be open to persuasion by a combination of attractive Labour policies and the Tories' poor recent record in government.

    You might well say that the Labour promises are illusionary or that the Tories are not doing too badly given the circumstances but I think that there's a strong possibility Labour can win (and take votes from the Tories) without ditching Corbyn.
    42% still voted against Labour when Corbyn was leading them, more than have ever voted for the Tories since 1992 when 41% voted against Kinnock
    Yes that's true, of course. But was GE2017 peak Corbyn or, given where he started the election from, can he go further next time? For the answer will have to wait for the next GE, but assuming the Tories stay in power until the next GE my guess is that Labour will win a small majority under Corbyn.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    surbiton said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsEditor: #BREAKING Japanese media says the missile fired by #NorthKorea has now passed over Japan. Question is...where is it due to land?!

    What will the other psycho do now ?
    Depends where the missile lands?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:



    There cannot be a coherent national view of what Leave means because Remainers want Leave to mean basically almost exactly the same as the EU, ie full single market and customs union membership, while Leavers want to see clear returns of sovereignty, an end to free movement and reductions of payments to the EU, which means departure from the single market and customs union, at least in the short term. Given Leave won it will inevitably ultimately be a Brexit more suited to what Leavers want even if Remainers may not be happy with that.

    No, there is and remains no coherent view among those of us who voted LEAVE. We did not have a discussion before A50 was initiated on issues relating to our relationship with the EU and the rest of the world.

    The siren calls from within your party for tax cuts and de-regulation are starting and that seems to be a factor drawing support for JRM. That's not a Britain for everyone and not one I'd like to live in. Leaving the EU has to work for us all.
    There is as I posted earlier, reclaiming sovereignty, reducing immigration and controlling borders and avoiding being drawn further into a federal EU, in that order were the 3 key reasons Leave voters voted Leave according to an on the day exit poll of 12 000 people.

    Tax cuts and de-regulation is not the issue nor is £350 million extra for the NHS (though Boris is moving towards pushing for increased public sector pay), those 3 reasons and those 3 reasons alone are the main aims of Brexit
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    42% still voted against Labour when Corbyn was leading them, more than have ever voted for the Tories since 1992 when 41% voted against Kinnock

    May of course stated existing employment law and workers' rights would be guaranteed for as long as she was Conservative leader.

    I can imagine the siren attraction for some Tories of a new leader promising to cut taxes and regulation including changes to employment law and workers' rights. Corbyn was of course right to raise this and as a working man I'm anxious my rights are safeguarded and not eroded by the Conservatives.

    Well you are a Labour voter so perhaps you might start to feel how some Tory voters have felt about Corbyn's promises on increasing taxation for the wealthy and renationalising key sectors of the economy. Though I doubt Davis or Boris would do that much to slash taxes and regulation, JRM might but he is less likely to win than those 2 in my view
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682

    HYUFD said:

    Pong said:

    It looks to me like the 31% of Con leavers answering "No I would not" are the voters who will deliver a majority Labour government at the next election.

    Labour need to relentlessly pound the tories for "making the country poorer"

    If Labour were to seriously want to run on an economic platform which might appeal to Conservative voters, they would first need to ditch Corbyn and McDonell, and then apologise in the most grovelling fashion for ever being naive and cynical enough for putting them (and Diane Abbott, FFS!) forward as the core of a potential government.
    I'm not so sure... There are of course many voters (Conservative and otherwise) who cannot stand Corbyn, but there will also be many don't have that strong view and who will be open to persuasion by a combination of attractive Labour policies and the Tories' poor recent record in government.

    You might well say that the Labour promises are illusionary or that the Tories are not doing too badly given the circumstances but I think that there's a strong possibility Labour can win (and take votes from the Tories) without ditching Corbyn.
    42% still voted against Labour when Corbyn was leading them, more than have ever voted for the Tories since 1992 when 41% voted against Kinnock
    Yes that's true, of course. But was GE2017 peak Corbyn or, given where he started the election from, can he go further next time? For the answer will have to wait for the next GE, but assuming the Tories stay in power until the next GE my guess is that Labour will win a small majority under Corbyn.
    I think different, I think Boris can win a small majority in 2020 but all to play for certainly
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    OchEye said:

    geoffw said:

    Why doesn't DD tell MB that we'll only consider the money once the rest of the deal is agreed?
    i) If it's a good deal for us we'd obviously be happy to talk turkey.
    ii) If not then we embrace WTO and they can go whistle.
    So (i) is win-win, and (ii) is lose-lose. Simples.

    Perhaps he has put this to them, which might explain why he appears sanguine.

    I think this is his intention this week.

    Sooner or later European Business is going to get involved banging heads together. 250 billion of EU trade is a huge amount of employment in EU states and these business's, their shareholders, and financiers are not going to sit on the sidelines much longer.

    Interesting that Jacob Rees Mogg seems to be increasing his support daily for PM as he becomes a cult figure. Just imagine Jacob Rees Morgan v Corbyn at PMQ's.

    It would be box office
    Corbyn would adjust his attack. For example, repeatedly asking the Mogg whether his nanny has given permission to do whatever. (JRH took his nanny when he was electioneering in Fife). It would be like shooting apples in a barrel.
    You may think that but he is becoming a cult figure as had Corbyn.

    Also I think Jacob would return fire very well - he has plenty to attack in Corbyn
    Just because he's an old Etonian, went to Trinity in Oxford, he's automatically better than anyone else? Let's see now, can anyone suggest a few names that have a similar story to tell, and how brilliant and how high they have flown before they have been turning to ash and falling to earth? Moggy has more than enough back history to be tied to a stake with the kindling round his feet, and Corbyn would figuratively put a lit match to the wood.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,525

    That could be very serious. Two years ago we went on a cruise from Vancouver to Beijing via Northern Japan, Vladivostok, South Korea, and China and the remarkable feature was just how close these Countries are relatively speaking. Also as we sailed from Vladivostok along the North Korean coast it felt strangely cold and uninviting
    That sounds a really fascinating trip! (NK missiles excluded).
  • dixiedean said:

    That could be very serious. Two years ago we went on a cruise from Vancouver to Beijing via Northern Japan, Vladivostok, South Korea, and China and the remarkable feature was just how close these Countries are relatively speaking. Also as we sailed from Vladivostok along the North Korean coast it felt strangely cold and uninviting
    That sounds a really fascinating trip! (NK missiles excluded).
    It was outstanding over 30 days as we sailed up Alaska then parrallel to the Aleutian Islands before arriving in Hokkaido then on to the other ports of call. It was a repositioning cruise and very good value.

    It was only surpassed by our Antarctica trip with zodiac landings ( our retirement present to each other)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,525

    dixiedean said:

    That could be very serious. Two years ago we went on a cruise from Vancouver to Beijing via Northern Japan, Vladivostok, South Korea, and China and the remarkable feature was just how close these Countries are relatively speaking. Also as we sailed from Vladivostok along the North Korean coast it felt strangely cold and uninviting
    That sounds a really fascinating trip! (NK missiles excluded).
    It was outstanding over 30 days as we sailed up Alaska then parrallel to the Aleutian Islands before arriving in Hokkaido then on to the other ports of call. It was a repositioning cruise and very good value.

    It was only surpassed by our Antarctica trip with zodiac landings ( our retirement present to each other)
    Cool! Hope to have such an adventurous spirit during my retirement. Am well jel as the kids say!
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    That could be very serious. Two years ago we went on a cruise from Vancouver to Beijing via Northern Japan, Vladivostok, South Korea, and China and the remarkable feature was just how close these Countries are relatively speaking. Also as we sailed from Vladivostok along the North Korean coast it felt strangely cold and uninviting
    That sounds a really fascinating trip! (NK missiles excluded).
    It was outstanding over 30 days as we sailed up Alaska then parrallel to the Aleutian Islands before arriving in Hokkaido then on to the other ports of call. It was a repositioning cruise and very good value.

    It was only surpassed by our Antarctica trip with zodiac landings ( our retirement present to each other)
    Cool! Hope to have such an adventurous spirit during my retirement. Am well jel as the kids say!
    Travel broadens the mind and we were fortunate that our eldest emigrated to New Zealand 14 years ago so we had an excuse to keep going round the World though be now lives in Vancouver

    The one thing my wife and I agreed was to do as much travel as we could while we could and it was sensible as we no longer want to go on long haul flights

    I hope you are able to enjoy travelling too
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,021
    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    Why doesn't DD tell MB that we'll only consider the money once the rest of the deal is agreed?
    i) If it's a good deal for us we'd obviously be happy to talk turkey.
    ii) If not then we embrace WTO and they can go whistle.
    So (i) is win-win, and (ii) is lose-lose. Simples.

    Perhaps he has put this to them, which might explain why he appears sanguine.

    Because no deal is more damaging for the U.K. than it is for the EU.
    I beg to differ.
    On what basis? How is no deal more damaging for the EU?
    The money for starters.
    Value of EU exports to UK = 2% of their combined GDP

    Value of UK exports to EU = 6% of our GDP
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    OchEye said:

    OchEye said:

    geoffw said:

    Why doesn't DD tell MB that we'll only consider the money once the rest of the deal is agreed?
    i) If it's a good deal for us we'd obviously be happy to talk turkey.
    ii) If not then we embrace WTO and they can go whistle.
    So (i) is win-win, and (ii) is lose-lose. Simples.

    Perhaps he has put this to them, which might explain why he appears sanguine.

    I think this is his intention this week.

    Sooner or later European Business is going to get involved banging heads together. 250 billion of EU trade is a huge amount of employment in EU states and these business's, their shareholders, and financiers are not going to sit on the sidelines much longer.

    Interesting that Jacob Rees Mogg seems to be increasing his support daily for PM as he becomes a cult figure. Just imagine Jacob Rees Morgan v Corbyn at PMQ's.

    It would be box office
    Corbyn would adjust his attack. For example, repeatedly asking the Mogg whether his nanny has given permission to do whatever. (JRH took his nanny when he was electioneering in Fife). It would be like shooting apples in a barrel.
    You may think that but he is becoming a cult figure as had Corbyn.

    Also I think Jacob would return fire very well - he has plenty to attack in Corbyn
    Just because he's an old Etonian, went to Trinity in Oxford, he's automatically better than anyone else? Let's see now, can anyone suggest a few names that have a similar story to tell, and how brilliant and how high they have flown before they have been turning to ash and falling to earth? Moggy has more than enough back history to be tied to a stake with the kindling round his feet, and Corbyn would figuratively put a lit match to the wood.
    If Mogg has a backstory what do you call Corbyn's? Let us not forget Corbyn still got fewer votes and seats than May and some clearly voted Tory because of that backstory.

    Though I think it will be more likely to be Boris v Corbyn rather than Mogg v Corbyn in 2020
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,021
    geoffw said:

    Meanwhile Edinburgh Council is literally blowing up their council taxpayers' hard-earned.

    I presume you are referring to the finale of these:

    The Edinburgh Festival Fringe and the International Festival have both had record breaking box offices in their 70th anniversary year.
    By Monday afternoon an estimated 2,696,884 tickets had been issued for Fringe shows, an increase of 9% on last year.


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-41075286
  • sarissa said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    Why doesn't DD tell MB that we'll only consider the money once the rest of the deal is agreed?
    i) If it's a good deal for us we'd obviously be happy to talk turkey.
    ii) If not then we embrace WTO and they can go whistle.
    So (i) is win-win, and (ii) is lose-lose. Simples.

    Perhaps he has put this to them, which might explain why he appears sanguine.

    Because no deal is more damaging for the U.K. than it is for the EU.
    I beg to differ.
    On what basis? How is no deal more damaging for the EU?
    The money for starters.
    Value of EU exports to UK = 2% of their combined GDP

    Value of UK exports to EU = 6% of our GDP
    What about the other 94%?
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,541
    edited August 2017

    sarissa said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    Why doesn't DD tell MB that we'll only consider the money once the rest of the deal is agreed?
    i) If it's a good deal for us we'd obviously be happy to talk turkey.
    ii) If not then we embrace WTO and they can go whistle.
    So (i) is win-win, and (ii) is lose-lose. Simples.

    Perhaps he has put this to them, which might explain why he appears sanguine.

    Because no deal is more damaging for the U.K. than it is for the EU.
    I beg to differ.
    On what basis? How is no deal more damaging for the EU?
    The money for starters.
    Value of EU exports to UK = 2% of their combined GDP

    Value of UK exports to EU = 6% of our GDP
    What about the other 94%?
    And they say there is no such thing as a stupid question! Or was it intended ironically? Hard to tell.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,525

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    That could be very serious. Two years ago we went on a cruise from Vancouver to Beijing via Northern Japan, Vladivostok, South Korea, and China and the remarkable feature was just how close these Countries are relatively speaking. Also as we sailed from Vladivostok along the North Korean coast it felt strangely cold and uninviting
    That sounds a really fascinating trip! (NK missiles excluded).
    It was outstanding over 30 days as we sailed up Alaska then parrallel to the Aleutian Islands before arriving in Hokkaido then on to the other ports of call. It was a repositioning cruise and very good value.

    It was only surpassed by our Antarctica trip with zodiac landings ( our retirement present to each other)
    Cool! Hope to have such an adventurous spirit during my retirement. Am well jel as the kids say!
    Travel broadens the mind and we were fortunate that our eldest emigrated to New Zealand 14 years ago so we had an excuse to keep going round the World though be now lives in Vancouver

    The one thing my wife and I agreed was to do as much travel as we could while we could and it was sensible as we no longer want to go on long haul flights

    I hope you are able to enjoy travelling too
    Cheers! I intend to.
    Travel displays many reasons to be thankful for the way we live, as well as gentle reminders it doesn't necessarily have to be this way. Occasionally, hints as to how we could do better.
    Perspective.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,021

    sarissa said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    Why doesn't DD tell MB that we'll only consider the money once the rest of the deal is agreed?
    i) If it's a good deal for us we'd obviously be happy to talk turkey.
    ii) If not then we embrace WTO and they can go whistle.
    So (i) is win-win, and (ii) is lose-lose. Simples.

    Perhaps he has put this to them, which might explain why he appears sanguine.

    Because no deal is more damaging for the U.K. than it is for the EU.
    I beg to differ.
    On what basis? How is no deal more damaging for the EU?
    The money for starters.
    Value of EU exports to UK = 2% of their combined GDP

    Value of UK exports to EU = 6% of our GDP
    What about the other 94%?
    much of it will be lost to a flood of cheap foreign imports destroying whole sectors of the economy.
This discussion has been closed.