politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » When TMay apologists try to excuse her GE17 humiliation by bra
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AKA the smugglers' charter...Richard_Nabavi said:- simplifications for business, such as self-assessment to allow traders to calculate their
own customs duties and aggregate their customs declarations;0 -
In other words put all the burden on business, and then arbitrarily throw the book at a few of them for getting it wrong?Richard_Nabavi said:This bit from the government's paper looks very good (para 35):
we would look to reduce the time and costs of complying with customs administrative
requirements through exploring the viability of unilateral measures, primarily in respect of
imports, for example:
- simplifications for business, such as self-assessment to allow traders to calculate their
own customs duties and aggregate their customs declarations;0 -
Very good for whom?Richard_Nabavi said:This bit from the government's paper looks very good (para 35):
we would look to reduce the time and costs of complying with customs administrative
requirements through exploring the viability of unilateral measures, primarily in respect of
imports, for example:
- simplifications for business, such as self-assessment to allow traders to calculate their
own customs duties and aggregate their customs declarations;0 -
0
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That took me ages to get!Ishmael_Z said:
When people ask me where I eat in Paris I tell them I know a simple and unpretentious place just off the Boul' Mich', much frequented by the locals - always a good sign - and with excellent coffee. I do not tell them about the twin golden arches with which it welcomes its patrons.Sandpit said:
And if their database can't cope with apostrophes in street names, what else can't it cope with?TheScreamingEagles said:Bloody French and their stupid language.
Domino’s Pizza Enterprises Ltd. thought its online delivery platform could be the pièce de résistance of a strategy to fire up sales in France.
Turns out, the system—used in English-speaking countries such as Australia and New Zealand—had problems dealing with apostrophes, commonly found in French addresses and locations like the Rue de l’Université in Paris. It was also challenged by French slang, resulting in hungry diners being told delivery wasn’t available where they were.
Investors found the confusion hard to stomach on Tuesday when the Sydney-listed company, which licenses the brand from U.S.-based Domino’s Pizza Inc., DPZ 0.54% blamed sluggish performance in France for a lower-than-expected annual profit. Shares fell nearly 19% by late afternoon, wiping more than 800 million Australian dollars (US$628 million) off its market value.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/doh-dominos-pizza-delivery-struggles-with-apostrophes-in-france-1502780139?mod=e2fb
https://www.xkcd.com/327/
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Well he would say that wouldn't he?Scott_P said:0 -
You are getting almost BBC-like in your relentless and childish negativity. No, it's not a smugglers' charter. For a start, you'd almost certainly have to be registered bona-fide trading company to use self-assessment. It's hardly likely that Nissan is going to enter fraudulent customs declarations, is it? Secondly, HMRC don't check every consignment at the moment anyway - far from it. They just check that there is some paperwork. Thirdly, why is it different from VAT, corporation tax, or income tax, all of which work on a self-assessment basis with HMRC doing spot-checks or looking for unusual patterns?Scott_P said:
AKA the smugglers' charter...Richard_Nabavi said:- simplifications for business, such as self-assessment to allow traders to calculate their
own customs duties and aggregate their customs declarations;0 -
Must go and have a look at Nutty Chappers Twitter... I need a good laugh after a stressful morning.williamglenn said:It's getting very heated.
https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/897433447454658560
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@IanDunt: Amazing thing is the pointlessness of it all. Masses of extra red tape, loads of new costs, untold lost hours in negotiation & preparation,
@IanDunt: and all for what? So we can replicate what we have now, except worse. What an unspeakable waste of time.
@IanDunt: A massive political cul-de-sac, taking up years of everyone's attention and skill, for no discernible purpose.0 -
This really isn't a new idea, it's quite common...Scott_P said:
AKA the smugglers' charter...Richard_Nabavi said:- simplifications for business, such as self-assessment to allow traders to calculate their
own customs duties and aggregate their customs declarations;0 -
Yes, exactly. A very good method, which crucially means that you don't impose delays at the point of import.williamglenn said:
In other words put all the burden on business, and then arbitrarily throw the book at a few of them for getting it wrong?Richard_Nabavi said:This bit from the government's paper looks very good (para 35):
we would look to reduce the time and costs of complying with customs administrative
requirements through exploring the viability of unilateral measures, primarily in respect of
imports, for example:
- simplifications for business, such as self-assessment to allow traders to calculate their
own customs duties and aggregate their customs declarations;0 -
Ummm, exactly...Richard_Nabavi said:HMRC don't check every consignment at the moment anyway - far from it.
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It's clear there's been some considerable thought put into the document as a whole.Richard_Nabavi said:This bit from the government's paper looks very good (para 35):
we would look to reduce the time and costs of complying with customs administrative
requirements through exploring the viability of unilateral measures, primarily in respect of
imports, for example:
- simplifications for business, such as self-assessment to allow traders to calculate their
own customs duties and aggregate their customs declarations;
If we're looking at 2021 as the date we leave the Customs Union, then there's lots of time to get a new system together that is also an opportunity to streamline the process for non-EU imports.
For existing regular importers, the paperwork wouldn't be too different to what happens now, and the role of customs staff at ports would be spot checking and searching for contraband, rather than taking a cheque from each lorry driver.0 -
Putting the border between Ireland and Great Britain is quite simply admitting to a de facto United Ireland, something that the Tories allies in the DUP might not be happy about. It might have been thought about, but this little birdie ain't gonna fly.Philip_Thompson said:
Except that the UK is a single country. That would be like putting the boundary between Liverpool and Manchester, albeit that is something some might suggest is a good idea.williamglenn said:
Flexible, but not that flexible:CarlottaVance said:The Government welcomes the clear commitment made in the European Council’s negotiating guidelines and the European Commission’s directives to work with us on “ exible and imaginative” solutions to achieve this.
The Government has made clear that the answer to avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland cannot be to impose a new customs border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.
This in a paper that spends most of its time suggesting that the EU-UK boundary can easily be seamless. If they believe their own rhetoric, putting that boundary in the Irish sea will not do anyone any harm.0 -
I feel very sorry for the poor Mrs Chapman, her husband is becoming increasingly unhinged as each day of their holiday passes.williamglenn said:It's getting very heated.
ttps://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/8974334474546585600 -
Not nutty at all. Oakeshot is very vulnerable to the point Chapman mentions .GIN1138 said:
Must go and have a look at Nutty Chappers Twitter... I need a good laugh after a stressful morning.williamglenn said:It's getting very heated.
https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/8974334474546585600 -
One for PB's religious crimes unit.
Melbourne archbishop says he'd rather go to jail than report child abuse heard in confession.
Denis Hart says ‘communication with God is of a higher order’ after child sex abuse inquiry calls for failure to report to become a criminal offence
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/15/melbourne-archbishop-says-hed-rather-go-to-jail-than-report-child-abuse-heard-in-confession?CMP=twt_gu0 -
Can confirm. I definitely know all about that.Winstanley said:
My old lecturer used to say that PPE is mostly learning how to write as if you know what you're on about.Benpointer said:
James Ball has a lot to answer for here - he seems to have initially published details of the survey on Buzzfeed and various papers lazily picked up highlights from his article.CarlottaVance said:
The Indie actually did - and fessed up to misunderstanding the impact of the non-standard methodology:AlastairMeeks said:
It is possibly the worst-reported opinion poll this year. It would be nice to see some of the papers that so woefully misreported it correct themselves, but I expect we'll have a long wait for that.CarlottaVance said:Given some of the reporting - '29% of Remain voters want EU Citizens deported' (sic) - worth reading the report:
While there appear to be few aspects of the negotiations that Leave and Remain voters demand at all cost or reject at all cost, there are aspects of the negotiations that are very important to them. Leave voters are particularly concerned about control over immigration and opposed to deals that give Britain less than “full control” over immigration. They are similarly concerned about legal sovereignty and any “divorce bill”. They also strongly prefer scenarios where EU citizens are able to apply for residence more than scenarios where all must leave. Remain voters care much more about the rights of EU citizens – indeed, no other aspect of the negotiations appears to matter more to them. They also agree with Leave voters that trade terms with fewer barriers and lower tariffs than a “no deal” scenario would bring are preferable to a hard break from the common market. Yet, ultimately, citizens are indifferent about many aspects of Brexit.
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/08/13/the-british-are-indifferent-about-many-aspects-of-brexit-but-leave-and-remain-voters-are-divided-on-several-key-issues/
http://www.independent.co.uk/infact/brexit-report-latest-remainers-deport-eu-citizens-uk-back-hard-european-union-study-explained-a7892216.html
https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamesball/remain-and-leave-voter
But it appears that he fell into the trap that the Indie explains. Since he's an Oxford PPE graduate with a diploma in Investigative Journalism, you'd expect a bit better when it comes to critical analysis of surveys!0 -
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But she was expecting to win 160 seats...HYUFD said:
Though May still won 318 seats in her first general election as leader to Cameron's 306TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, here's another stat that upsets the Maybots.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/8739787100383887370 -
Not an expert on the pretendy cannibal picnic crowd, but surely as a confessor you can say, you ain't gettin' no absolution until you resign the position which puts you in a position to commit child abuse and report yourself to the secular authorities?TheScreamingEagles said:One for PB's religious crimes unit.
Melbourne archbishop says he'd rather go to jail than report child abuse heard in confession.
Denis Hart says ‘communication with God is of a higher order’ after child sex abuse inquiry calls for failure to report to become a criminal offence
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/15/melbourne-archbishop-says-hed-rather-go-to-jail-than-report-child-abuse-heard-in-confession?CMP=twt_gu0 -
The hair extensions... ?MikeSmithson said:
Not nutty at all. Oakeshot is very vulnerable to the point Chapman mentions .GIN1138 said:
Must go and have a look at Nutty Chappers Twitter... I need a good laugh after a stressful morning.williamglenn said:It's getting very heated.
https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/897433447454658560
Serious politicians don't conduct vendettas against unimportant journalists. And Chapman is a very long way from being a serious politician, however much one might sympathise with his cause.0 -
Not just her though is it? He's "machine-gunning" (in the Twitter sense) everyone who ever crossed him or Dave/George.MikeSmithson said:
Not nutty at all. Oakeshot is very vulnerable to the point Chapman mentions .GIN1138 said:
Must go and have a look at Nutty Chappers Twitter... I need a good laugh after a stressful morning.williamglenn said:It's getting very heated.
https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/897433447454658560
Going through his Tweets is certainly a fun way to spend an hour... But he looks completely nutty to me lol! 0 -
75%+.HYUFD said:
So you are implacably opposed to 52% of the British population then?Scott_P said:
I am not implacably opposed to conservatives, or even the Conservatives.CornishJohn said:I would have more time for discussion with someone that hasn't been implacably opposed to the Conservatives ever since the referendum result.
I am implacably opposed to the Brexiteers, whatever badge they hide behind.0 -
Far Kinell.HYUFD said:
So you are implacably opposed to 52% of the British population then?Scott_P said:
I am not implacably opposed to conservatives, or even the Conservatives.CornishJohn said:I would have more time for discussion with someone that hasn't been implacably opposed to the Conservatives ever since the referendum result.
I am implacably opposed to the Brexiteers, whatever badge they hide behind.
I am implacably opposed to the starry-eyed romantics who voted Labour. Are differences of political opinion still allowed in the UK today?0 -
Seen this? - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-2017-jeremy-corbyn-theresa-may-constituency-visits-swing-votes-turnout-polls-ballot-a7892756.html
Better targeting needed for Labour, though I guess with the polling situation, a more pessimistic approach was sensible.0 -
I thought the same exemption to confidentially that the legal profession and the medical profession enjoyed applied to the clergy.Ishmael_Z said:
Not an expert on the pretendy cannibal picnic crowd, but surely as a confessor you can say, you ain't gettin' no absolution until you resign the position which puts you in a position to commit child abuse and report yourself to the secular authorities?TheScreamingEagles said:One for PB's religious crimes unit.
Melbourne archbishop says he'd rather go to jail than report child abuse heard in confession.
Denis Hart says ‘communication with God is of a higher order’ after child sex abuse inquiry calls for failure to report to become a criminal offence
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/15/melbourne-archbishop-says-hed-rather-go-to-jail-than-report-child-abuse-heard-in-confession?CMP=twt_gu
You can break it to prevent harm to yourself and others.0 -
You as well! Do you restrict all your discussions to pre-vetted correspondents?CornishJohn said:
I would have more time for discussion with someone that hasn't been implacably opposed to the Conservatives ever since the referendum result.Scott_P said:
Too late...CornishJohn said:As long as the Conservatives keep their head down and govern effectively
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Flapping white coats still belong on the Leave side, which can be conveniently divided into the following five groups: the deranged; the malign; the self-deceiving; the thick as mince; and the misled.Allan said:
Remainer die-hards. The new group of people where we can "hear the sound of flapping white coats"?CornishJohn said:
Theresa May supported Remain. But she accepted the voice of the people and that makes you implacably opposed. There is simply no point in trying to reconcile the Remainer die-hards. You won't be happy with anything except resubmitting to Brussels so you will twist every event to damn those who won't do that.Scott_P said:
I am not implacably opposed to conservatives, or even the Conservatives.CornishJohn said:I would have more time for discussion with someone that hasn't been implacably opposed to the Conservatives ever since the referendum result.
I am implacably opposed to the Brexiteers, whatever badge they hide behind.
Unfortunately we would need four dimensions for the appropriate Venn diagram.0 -
Sounds like the (second?) favourite for leader of the Cons (speaking of his opposition to gay marriage): "I take the whip from the hierarchy of the Roman Catholic Church"TheScreamingEagles said:One for PB's religious crimes unit.
Melbourne archbishop says he'd rather go to jail than report child abuse heard in confession.
Denis Hart says ‘communication with God is of a higher order’ after child sex abuse inquiry calls for failure to report to become a criminal offence
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/15/melbourne-archbishop-says-hed-rather-go-to-jail-than-report-child-abuse-heard-in-confession?CMP=twt_gu0 -
So no thoughtful people could just honestly disagree with you?AlastairMeeks said:
Flapping white coats still belong on the Leave side, which can be conveniently divided into the following five groups: the deranged; the malign; the self-deceiving; the thick as mince; and the misled.Allan said:
Remainer die-hards. The new group of people where we can "hear the sound of flapping white coats"?CornishJohn said:
Theresa May supported Remain. But she accepted the voice of the people and that makes you implacably opposed. There is simply no point in trying to reconcile the Remainer die-hards. You won't be happy with anything except resubmitting to Brussels so you will twist every event to damn those who won't do that.Scott_P said:
I am not implacably opposed to conservatives, or even the Conservatives.CornishJohn said:I would have more time for discussion with someone that hasn't been implacably opposed to the Conservatives ever since the referendum result.
I am implacably opposed to the Brexiteers, whatever badge they hide behind.
Unfortunately we would need four dimensions for the appropriate Venn diagram.
Convenient.0 -
Two points:
1. "mirroring the EU's requirements for imports from the rest of the world" doesn't sound very take back control-y
2. Is that really how you spell freest?0 -
We can't have a Papist as Prime Minister, just imagine when he has to recommend to Her Majesty a new candidate for Archbishop of Canterbury or any other Bishopric, it's a constitutional crisis in the making.TOPPING said:
Sounds like the (second?) favourite for leader of the Cons (speaking of his opposition to gay marriage): "I take the whip from the hierarchy of the Roman Catholic Church"TheScreamingEagles said:One for PB's religious crimes unit.
Melbourne archbishop says he'd rather go to jail than report child abuse heard in confession.
Denis Hart says ‘communication with God is of a higher order’ after child sex abuse inquiry calls for failure to report to become a criminal offence
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/15/melbourne-archbishop-says-hed-rather-go-to-jail-than-report-child-abuse-heard-in-confession?CMP=twt_gu
Can we trust this fifth columnist who owes his allegiance to Rome?
Plus will the Tory/DUP alliance fall because of Jacob Rees-Mogg?0 -
I think they are safe on the bishops thing. Wasn't that what caused the problem in the first place?TheScreamingEagles said:
We can't have a Papist as Prime Minister, just imagine when he has to recommend to Her Majesty a new candidate for Archbishop of Canterbury or any other Bishopric, it's a constitutional crisis in the making.TOPPING said:
Sounds like the (second?) favourite for leader of the Cons (speaking of his opposition to gay marriage): "I take the whip from the hierarchy of the Roman Catholic Church"TheScreamingEagles said:One for PB's religious crimes unit.
Melbourne archbishop says he'd rather go to jail than report child abuse heard in confession.
Denis Hart says ‘communication with God is of a higher order’ after child sex abuse inquiry calls for failure to report to become a criminal offence
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/15/melbourne-archbishop-says-hed-rather-go-to-jail-than-report-child-abuse-heard-in-confession?CMP=twt_gu
Can we trust this fifth columnist who owes his allegiance to Rome?
Plus will the Tory/DUP alliance fall because of Jacob Rees-Mogg?0 -
The EU is a religion for some people and they will be permanently angry at the heretics that reject the one true God. Mercifully for the Conservatives there are extremely few of them on the right hand half of the political spectrum, so they will be more of a problem for Labour than us in time.Philip_Thompson said:
So no thoughtful people could just honestly disagree with you?AlastairMeeks said:
Flapping white coats still belong on the Leave side, which can be conveniently divided into the following five groups: the deranged; the malign; the self-deceiving; the thick as mince; and the misled.Allan said:
Remainer die-hards. The new group of people where we can "hear the sound of flapping white coats"?CornishJohn said:
Theresa May supported Remain. But she accepted the voice of the people and that makes you implacably opposed. There is simply no point in trying to reconcile the Remainer die-hards. You won't be happy with anything except resubmitting to Brussels so you will twist every event to damn those who won't do that.Scott_P said:
I am not implacably opposed to conservatives, or even the Conservatives.CornishJohn said:I would have more time for discussion with someone that hasn't been implacably opposed to the Conservatives ever since the referendum result.
I am implacably opposed to the Brexiteers, whatever badge they hide behind.
Unfortunately we would need four dimensions for the appropriate Venn diagram.
Convenient.0 -
Allowing for the rose or should that be blue-tinted glasses, that's an interesting analysis of the past couple of months.CornishJohn said:She completely recognised what had happened. She came first, but only by a slim margin rather than the big margin that we were all hoping. She recognised the mistakes of the campaigns, admitted responsibility to the party and made changes to both her top team and her leadership style acknowledging that. Since then she has been very effective, had a great G8 and after allowing a period of debate, is now bringing her cabinet together again. The joint article by Liam Fox and Phil Hammond is testament to that.
There are some people that will always castigate every politician supportive of enacting the will of the people on Brexit, but that is what it is. The important thing is to do the right thing and concentrate on the persuadable.
The day after the election was awful for the Prime Minister and while in time she might have come to recognise her folly, at the time she didn't and made herself look even more arrogant and out of touch than she had in the campaign.
The "changes" were probably forced on her in terms of the sackings of Hill and Timothy and your recollection of a "great G8" doesn't square with my complete lack of recollection. There was some tweet from Trump which said something nice but that was about all I can recall.
As for the Cabinet, off-the-record briefing has been rife and we now have (apparently) a rapprochement between Fox and Hammond though one wonders if that's more of a ploy to form a united front against Davis on the basis "my enemy's enemy is my friend".
I voted LEAVE and I want it to work for the whole of the United Kingdom not just business and the City. I would also have preferred a more inclusive approach but politically that's fine - the people will thank the Conservatives for the Brexit negotiation by throwing them out of office next time. There's little or no place for gratitude.
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We had one as leader from 2001-2003. Admittedly there was no risk of him becoming PM.TheScreamingEagles said:We can't have a Papist as Prime Minister, just imagine when he has to recommend to Her Majesty a new candidate for Archbishop of Canterbury or any other Bishopric, it's a constitutional crisis in the making.
Can we trust this fifth columnist who owes his allegiance to Rome?0 -
It does for a transition period... the key part of the proposal is gaining the ability to commence negotiations with other 3rd countries.TOPPING said:Two points:
1. "mirroring the EU's requirements for imports from the rest of the world" doesn't sound very take back control-y
A transitional period is hardly going to be transitional if it; a) changes nothing and therefore just defers the cliff edge, or b) just implements the cliff edge that everyone wanted a transition period to avoid!0 -
Thoughtful Eurosceptics like William Hague disagree with me, but they still back Remain.Philip_Thompson said:
So no thoughtful people could just honestly disagree with you?AlastairMeeks said:
Flapping white coats still belong on the Leave side, which can be conveniently divided into the following five groups: the deranged; the malign; the self-deceiving; the thick as mince; and the misled.Allan said:
Remainer die-hards. The new group of people where we can "hear the sound of flapping white coats"?CornishJohn said:
Theresa May supported Remain. But she accepted the voice of the people and that makes you implacably opposed. There is simply no point in trying to reconcile the Remainer die-hards. You won't be happy with anything except resubmitting to Brussels so you will twist every event to damn those who won't do that.Scott_P said:
I am not implacably opposed to conservatives, or even the Conservatives.CornishJohn said:I would have more time for discussion with someone that hasn't been implacably opposed to the Conservatives ever since the referendum result.
I am implacably opposed to the Brexiteers, whatever badge they hide behind.
Unfortunately we would need four dimensions for the appropriate Venn diagram.
Convenient.0 -
And freest?chrisoxon said:
It does for a transition period... the key part of the proposal is gaining the ability to commence negotiations with other 3rd countries.TOPPING said:Two points:
1. "mirroring the EU's requirements for imports from the rest of the world" doesn't sound very take back control-y
A transitional period is hardly going to be transitional if it; a) changes nothing and therefore just defers the cliff edge, or b) just implements the cliff edge that everyone wanted a transition period to avoid!
Edit: And Nige won't be happy with that. He is already turning as puce as his tie on the news bulletins. So it's not all bad.0 -
The "position paper" is a dog that didn't bark. It isn't actually a position paper for a negotiation. The EU papers are explicit: we want A, B, C, D, E and F. The language might be firmer for A, B and C than for D, E and F, which are a bit more tentative. So we can read A, B and C as the EU red lines and D, E and F as where they expect to negotiate. The DExEU paper just makes two proposals. The "new customs partnership with the EU" is a wish to make the whole customs issue go away in a burst of common fairy dust, so I think we can dismiss that. The "highly streamlined customs arrangement" isn't a negotiating position. It is a set of suggestions of how to cope if agreement isn't reached. So we have a "position paper" for negotiations that doesn't put forward any serious negotiating positions. Why is that? My guess is that the government's real position is to remain in a customs union with the EU. That possibility is not mentioned at all in the paper, even to reject it.TOPPING said:Two points:
1. "mirroring the EU's requirements for imports from the rest of the world" doesn't sound very take back control-y
2. Is that really how you spell freest?0 -
Yes - https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/freestTOPPING said:
And freest?chrisoxon said:
It does for a transition period... the key part of the proposal is gaining the ability to commence negotiations with other 3rd countries.TOPPING said:Two points:
1. "mirroring the EU's requirements for imports from the rest of the world" doesn't sound very take back control-y
A transitional period is hardly going to be transitional if it; a) changes nothing and therefore just defers the cliff edge, or b) just implements the cliff edge that everyone wanted a transition period to avoid!
Edit: And Nige won't be happy with that. He is already turning as puce as his tie on the news bulletins. So it's not all bad.
But, I think the substantive points are a bit more important..0 -
Nah. It's knowing the known unknowns and being credible on the unknown unknowns.Recidivist said:
Can confirm. I definitely know all about that.Winstanley said:
My old lecturer used to say that PPE is mostly learning how to write as if you know what you're on about.Benpointer said:
James Ball has a lot to answer for here - he seems to have initially published details of the survey on Buzzfeed and various papers lazily picked up highlights from his article.CarlottaVance said:
The Indie actually did - and fessed up to misunderstanding the impact of the non-standard methodology:AlastairMeeks said:
It is possibly the worst-reported opinion poll this year. It would be nice to see some of the papers that so woefully misreported it correct themselves, but I expect we'll have a long wait for that.CarlottaVance said:Given some of the reporting - '29% of Remain voters want EU Citizens deported' (sic) - worth reading the report:
While there appear to be few aspects of the negotiations that Leave and Remain voters demand at all cost or reject at all cost, there are aspects of the negotiations that are very important to them. Leave voters are particularly concerned about control over immigration and opposed to deals that give Britain less than “full control” over immigration. They are similarly concerned about legal sovereignty and any “divorce bill”. They also strongly prefer scenarios where EU citizens are able to apply for residence more than scenarios where all must leave. Remain voters care much more about the rights of EU citizens – indeed, no other aspect of the negotiations appears to matter more to them. They also agree with Leave voters that trade terms with fewer barriers and lower tariffs than a “no deal” scenario would bring are preferable to a hard break from the common market. Yet, ultimately, citizens are indifferent about many aspects of Brexit.
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/08/13/the-british-are-indifferent-about-many-aspects-of-brexit-but-leave-and-remain-voters-are-divided-on-several-key-issues/
http://www.independent.co.uk/infact/brexit-report-latest-remainers-deport-eu-citizens-uk-back-hard-european-union-study-explained-a7892216.html
https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamesball/remain-and-leave-voter
But it appears that he fell into the trap that the Indie explains. Since he's an Oxford PPE graduate with a diploma in Investigative Journalism, you'd expect a bit better when it comes to critical analysis of surveys!0 -
As long as they don't bash them it's ok.TOPPING said:
I think they are safe on the bishops thing. Wasn't that what caused the problem in the first place?TheScreamingEagles said:
We can't have a Papist as Prime Minister, just imagine when he has to recommend to Her Majesty a new candidate for Archbishop of Canterbury or any other Bishopric, it's a constitutional crisis in the making.TOPPING said:
Sounds like the (second?) favourite for leader of the Cons (speaking of his opposition to gay marriage): "I take the whip from the hierarchy of the Roman Catholic Church"TheScreamingEagles said:One for PB's religious crimes unit.
Melbourne archbishop says he'd rather go to jail than report child abuse heard in confession.
Denis Hart says ‘communication with God is of a higher order’ after child sex abuse inquiry calls for failure to report to become a criminal offence
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/15/melbourne-archbishop-says-hed-rather-go-to-jail-than-report-child-abuse-heard-in-confession?CMP=twt_gu
Can we trust this fifth columnist who owes his allegiance to Rome?
Plus will the Tory/DUP alliance fall because of Jacob Rees-Mogg?0 -
It is literally the first sentence of the exec summary....FF43 said:My guess is that the government's real position is to remain in a customs union with the EU. That possibility is not mentioned at all in the paper, even to reject it.
"As we leave the European Union and therefore the EU Customs Union"
EDIT: Also in Para 22
"As we leave the EU we will also leave the EU Customs Union. To achieve our objectives on trading independently with both the EU and the rest of the world, we will need to establish a new customs arrangement with the EU outside of the EU Customs Union."
0 -
Arguably it's implicit in the paper if you combine the red lines of no hard border in Ireland and no customs border within he UK. Nothing else is realistic.FF43 said:
The "position paper" is a dog that didn't bark. It isn't actually a position paper for a negotiation. The EU papers are explicit: we want A, B, C, D, E and F. The language might be firmer for A, B and C than for D, E and F, which are a bit more tentative. So we can read A, B and C as the EU red lines and D, E and F as where they expect to negotiate. The DExEU paper just makes two proposals. The "new customs partnership with the EU" is a wish to make the whole customs issue go away in a burst of common fairy dust, so I think we can dismiss that. The "highly streamlined customs arrangement" isn't a negotiating position. It is a set of suggestions of how to cope if agreement isn't reached. So we have a "position paper" for negotiations that doesn't put forward any serious negotiating positions. Why is that? My guess is that the government's real position is to remain in a customs union with the EU. That possibility is not mentioned at all in the paper, even to reject it.TOPPING said:Two points:
1. "mirroring the EU's requirements for imports from the rest of the world" doesn't sound very take back control-y
2. Is that really how you spell freest?0 -
So far he has called for the jailing of Boris and others, the exile to Moscow or Siberia of Farage and Carswell, called IDS an idiot, described Robbie Gibb as deranged and hash-tagged Mark Reckless a 'bald nazi'. Straight out of the Trump playbook, but Trump had a party to take over and money and name recognition... what's Chappers got?Nigelb said:
The hair extensions... ?MikeSmithson said:
Not nutty at all. Oakeshot is very vulnerable to the point Chapman mentions .GIN1138 said:
Must go and have a look at Nutty Chappers Twitter... I need a good laugh after a stressful morning.williamglenn said:It's getting very heated.
https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/897433447454658560
Serious politicians don't conduct vendettas against unimportant journalists. And Chapman is a very long way from being a serious politician, however much one might sympathise with his cause.0 -
History has shown it gets messy when this country decides to break with Rome, breaking from the Treaty of Rome might be even more messier than in Henry VIII's time.TOPPING said:
I think they are safe on the bishops thing. Wasn't that what caused the problem in the first place?TheScreamingEagles said:
We can't have a Papist as Prime Minister, just imagine when he has to recommend to Her Majesty a new candidate for Archbishop of Canterbury or any other Bishopric, it's a constitutional crisis in the making.TOPPING said:
Sounds like the (second?) favourite for leader of the Cons (speaking of his opposition to gay marriage): "I take the whip from the hierarchy of the Roman Catholic Church"TheScreamingEagles said:One for PB's religious crimes unit.
Melbourne archbishop says he'd rather go to jail than report child abuse heard in confession.
Denis Hart says ‘communication with God is of a higher order’ after child sex abuse inquiry calls for failure to report to become a criminal offence
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/15/melbourne-archbishop-says-hed-rather-go-to-jail-than-report-child-abuse-heard-in-confession?CMP=twt_gu
Can we trust this fifth columnist who owes his allegiance to Rome?
Plus will the Tory/DUP alliance fall because of Jacob Rees-Mogg?0 -
Doesn't feel right but there you go.chrisoxon said:
Yes - https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/freestTOPPING said:
And freest?chrisoxon said:
It does for a transition period... the key part of the proposal is gaining the ability to commence negotiations with other 3rd countries.TOPPING said:Two points:
1. "mirroring the EU's requirements for imports from the rest of the world" doesn't sound very take back control-y
A transitional period is hardly going to be transitional if it; a) changes nothing and therefore just defers the cliff edge, or b) just implements the cliff edge that everyone wanted a transition period to avoid!
Edit: And Nige won't be happy with that. He is already turning as puce as his tie on the news bulletins. So it's not all bad.
But, I think the substantive points are a bit more important..
0 -
What was final result? Looks like they overstated the Tories a little and missed the Labour surge.MikeSmithson said:Just a reminder of BMG's final GE2017 poll
https://twitter.com/AmanTsays/status/896719007159644162
Given the second is unlikely to be replicated, worstbyou can say is they might slightly overstate the Tory lead in current poll0 -
Bad loser-itus? Highly contagious amongst political 2nd placers
https://twitter.com/isabeloakeshott/status/897426443717816321
0 -
Oh dear! It's the THE Customs Union / A Customs Union confusion. Deliberate confusion, as I mentioned downthread. So we will leave THE "Customs Union" and seamlessly move to A customs union. All clear now? Don't worry if it's not!!!chrisoxon said:
It is literally the first sentence of the exec summary....FF43 said:My guess is that the government's real position is to remain in a customs union with the EU. That possibility is not mentioned at all in the paper, even to reject it.
"As we leave the European Union and therefore the EU Customs Union"
EDIT: Also in Para 22
"As we leave the EU we will also leave the EU Customs Union. To achieve our objectives on trading independently with both the EU and the rest of the world, we will need to establish a new customs arrangement with the EU outside of the EU Customs Union."0 -
It's perfectly clear if you engage your brain and read the document at face value rather than projecting your own hysteria onto it...FF43 said:
Oh dear! It's the THE Customs Union / A Customs Union confusion. Deliberate confusion, as I mentioned downthread. So we will leave THE "Customs Union" and seamlessly move to A customs union. All clear now? Don't worry if it's not!!!chrisoxon said:
It is literally the first sentence of the exec summary....FF43 said:My guess is that the government's real position is to remain in a customs union with the EU. That possibility is not mentioned at all in the paper, even to reject it.
"As we leave the European Union and therefore the EU Customs Union"
EDIT: Also in Para 22
"As we leave the EU we will also leave the EU Customs Union. To achieve our objectives on trading independently with both the EU and the rest of the world, we will need to establish a new customs arrangement with the EU outside of the EU Customs Union."0 -
Crystal clear; thanks for asking.FF43 said:
Oh dear! It's the THE Customs Union / A Customs Union confusion. Deliberate confusion, as I mentioned downthread. So we will leave THE "Customs Union" and seamlessly move to A customs union. All clear now? Don't worry if it's not!!!chrisoxon said:
It is literally the first sentence of the exec summary....FF43 said:My guess is that the government's real position is to remain in a customs union with the EU. That possibility is not mentioned at all in the paper, even to reject it.
"As we leave the European Union and therefore the EU Customs Union"
EDIT: Also in Para 22
"As we leave the EU we will also leave the EU Customs Union. To achieve our objectives on trading independently with both the EU and the rest of the world, we will need to establish a new customs arrangement with the EU outside of the EU Customs Union."0 -
A customs union with the Customs Union, sure.FF43 said:My guess is that the government's real position is to remain in a customs union with the EU.
0 -
I think it is implicit. And I also think it is telling that their third red line of an independent trade policy is not stated as being incompatible with a customs union. Indeed David Davis is saying today that they will pursue trade deals while in the supposedly temporary customs arrangement they want to set up.williamglenn said:
Arguably it's implicit in the paper if you combine the red lines of no hard border in Ireland and no customs border within he UK. Nothing else is realistic.FF43 said:
The "position paper" is a dog that didn't bark. It isn't actually a position paper for a negotiation. The EU papers are explicit: we want A, B, C, D, E and F. The language might be firmer for A, B and C than for D, E and F, which are a bit more tentative. So we can read A, B and C as the EU red lines and D, E and F as where they expect to negotiate. The DExEU paper just makes two proposals. The "new customs partnership with the EU" is a wish to make the whole customs issue go away in a burst of common fairy dust, so I think we can dismiss that. The "highly streamlined customs arrangement" isn't a negotiating position. It is a set of suggestions of how to cope if agreement isn't reached. So we have a "position paper" for negotiations that doesn't put forward any serious negotiating positions. Why is that? My guess is that the government's real position is to remain in a customs union with the EU. That possibility is not mentioned at all in the paper, even to reject it.TOPPING said:Two points:
1. "mirroring the EU's requirements for imports from the rest of the world" doesn't sound very take back control-y
2. Is that really how you spell freest?
What I am not sure is whether the government are internally agreed to go into a customs union or whether they collectively still need to join the dots. They are certainly not admitting to it.0 -
Afternoon all
Managed to skim the Future Customs Arrangements documents over lunch - the Racing Post is a bit thin today. A lot of it goes over my head if I'm being honest but I was struck by paragraph 21:
21.
Up until we leave the EU, we will continue to be a member of the EU Customs Union and will continue to apply EU law on customs. The rules for the EU Customs Union are governed almost entirely by EU law11 and customs policy is largely an exclusive competence of the EU. Membership of the EU Customs Union means that:
●●
goods moving between the UK and other EU Member States are not subject to customs duty, quotas or routine customs processes (including the need to provide customs declarations); and
●●
Member States apply the EU’s Common External Tariff (i.e. the same rates of customs duty) and its quotas and customs processes to goods which are moving between the EU and non-EU countries - the EU negotiates trade agreements, including tariffs, on behalf of all Member States.
So when we leave the EU and the Customs Union, we will no longer apply the Common External Tariff because if we negotiate a separate FTA with say Canada, there may not be a tariff (whereas with some countries and some products there may be higher tariffs) ?
Then we have Paragraph 14:
14.
We will ensure we protect our businesses from unfair anti-competitive practices. When countries do not play by the rules or take an unfair advantage, we will act swiftly to ensure that trade remains fair and that markets are kept open. We, like many of our partners, believe that providing a safety net for domestic businesses if they suffer harm as a result of unfair trading practices is an important part of supporting the free trade agenda.
How are we going to do this - via the WTO ? What happens if the country involved turns round and slaps big tariffs on UK goods but not on EU goods ?0 -
Isabel Oakeshott @IsabelOakeshott 1h1 hour ago
Colleagues been asked to go easy on @jameschappers as he's 'not well.' I know he will turn on me, but it's time someone stood up to this.
--
Why?
Why go easy on him?
What is it they're afraid he'll say?
And why demean yourself with a mental health smear?
Isabel's clearly smart, but I'm not sure she's smart enough to know when to shut up.0 -
How far was the Labour surge a last minute phenomena, and how far was it just a revelation of a stronger underlying position after two years of over-corrected polling after 2015? Is there a way we can know that? Remembering that their 13-point lead came after the key moments when a Labour surge / weakening Tory vote would make sense anyway.Charles said:
What was final result? Looks like they overstated the Tories a little and missed the Labour surge.MikeSmithson said:Just a reminder of BMG's final GE2017 poll
https://twitter.com/AmanTsays/status/896719007159644162
Given the second is unlikely to be replicated, worstbyou can say is they might slightly overstate the Tory lead in current poll
0 -
Missing the Conservatives by 3.5% and Labour by 6.5% are in polling terms enormous. No wonders individuals are rightly sceptical about polls if methodologies produce such flawed and inaccurate results.Charles said:What was final result? Looks like they overstated the Tories a little and missed the Labour surge.
Given the second is unlikely to be replicated, worst you can say is they might slightly overstate the Tory lead in current poll
It's not even as though the poll was conducted a month before the GE - it was two days. Survation and others were seeing the wind was blowing, BMG and others did not.
0 -
The WTO will handle this - assuming that neither the UK or EU has a preferential trade arrangement with this hypothetical country both the UK and EU would be subject to same tariffs under the MFN rules of the WTO.stodge said:14.
We will ensure we protect our businesses from unfair anti-competitive practices. When countries do not play by the rules or take an unfair advantage, we will act swiftly to ensure that trade remains fair and that markets are kept open. We, like many of our partners, believe that providing a safety net for domestic businesses if they suffer harm as a result of unfair trading practices is an important part of supporting the free trade agenda.
How are we going to do this - via the WTO ? What happens if the country involved turns round and slaps big tariffs on UK goods but not on EU goods ?
0 -
I think it's been constitutionally fine for Catholics to be PM since the Catholic Emancipation Act ?TheScreamingEagles said:
We can't have a Papist as Prime Minister, just imagine when he has to recommend to Her Majesty a new candidate for Archbishop of Canterbury or any other Bishopric, it's a constitutional crisis in the making.TOPPING said:
Sounds like the (second?) favourite for leader of the Cons (speaking of his opposition to gay marriage): "I take the whip from the hierarchy of the Roman Catholic Church"TheScreamingEagles said:One for PB's religious crimes unit.
Melbourne archbishop says he'd rather go to jail than report child abuse heard in confession.
Denis Hart says ‘communication with God is of a higher order’ after child sex abuse inquiry calls for failure to report to become a criminal offence
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/15/melbourne-archbishop-says-hed-rather-go-to-jail-than-report-child-abuse-heard-in-confession?CMP=twt_gu
Can we trust this fifth columnist who owes his allegiance to Rome?
Plus will the Tory/DUP alliance fall because of Jacob Rees-Mogg?
There is some argument as to whether a Catholic PM and/or his/her cabinet might be barred from advising on the appointment of Bishops, but I can't see any resulting constitutional crisis escaping the proverbial teacup
Surely Tory defectors are just as likely as the DUP to bring down a Moggovernment ?0 -
-
Thanks Chris - yet another area where I am forced to flaunt my ignorance safe in the knowledge someone in the PB commentariat will be able to help out.chrisoxon said:
The WTO will handle this - assuming that neither the UK or EU has a preferential trade arrangement with this hypothetical country both the UK and EU would be subject to same tariffs under the MFN rules of the WTO.
0 -
Chapman has just given a hint that the rally on the 9th of September will be the official launch of the Democrats.0
-
Does that last comment apply to old Chappers as well? He does sound mentalPong said:Isabel Oakeshott @IsabelOakeshott 1h1 hour ago
Colleagues been asked to go easy on @jameschappers as he's 'not well.' I know he will turn on me, but it's time someone stood up to this.
--
Why?
Why go easy on him?
What is it they're afraid he'll say?
And why demean yourself with a mental health smear?
Isabel's clearly smart, but I'm not sure she's smart enough to know when to shut up.0 -
We will seamlessly move to a A customs union, that doesn't exist, that is being drawn up on the back of a fag packet, that requires 27 other states to agree, and that can be implemented in months by the same team that will take 4 years to repair 1 clock...FF43 said:we will leave THE "Customs Union" and seamlessly move to A customs union.
Delusional...0 -
-
What alternative plan do you propose? Also, what is the EU's proposal?Scott_P said:
We will seamlessly move to a A customs union, that doesn't exist, that is being drawn up on the back of a fag packet, that requires 27 other states to agree, and that can be implemented in months by the same team that will take 4 years to repair 1 clock...FF43 said:we will leave THE "Customs Union" and seamlessly move to A customs union.
Delusional...0 -
Oops!
Air Berlin filed for insolvency on Tuesday but will remain operating after the German government and Lufthansa stepped in to prevent the collapse of one of Europe’s largest airlines.
https://www.ft.com/content/83165178-81b9-11e7-94e2-c5b903247afd0 -
By his own words he takes the whip from the hierarchy of the Roman Catholic Church.Nigelb said:I think it's been constitutionally fine for Catholics to be PM since the Catholic Emancipation Act ?
There is some argument as to whether a Catholic PM and/or his/her cabinet might be barred from advising on the appointment of Bishops, but I can't see any resulting constitutional crisis escaping the proverbial teacup
Surely Tory defectors are just as likely as the DUP to bring down a Moggovernment ?
Huge conflict of interest, we know where his loyalties lie and it isn't to this country or our monarch.
I assume once we leave the EU we can start to burn Catholics again?0 -
That's only one question...!Richard_Nabavi said:
What alternative plan do you propose? Also, what is the EU's proposal?Scott_P said:
We will seamlessly move to a A customs union, that doesn't exist, that is being drawn up on the back of a fag packet, that requires 27 other states to agree, and that can be implemented in months by the same team that will take 4 years to repair 1 clock...FF43 said:we will leave THE "Customs Union" and seamlessly move to A customs union.
Delusional...0 -
To be fair, the 'A customs union' plan would surely be after the 'THE customs union' transition period, so it would be 3-4 years before even this 'temporary' arrangement kicked in.Scott_P said:
We will seamlessly move to a A customs union, that doesn't exist, that is being drawn up on the back of a fag packet, that requires 27 other states to agree, and that can be implemented in months by the same team that will take 4 years to repair 1 clock...FF43 said:we will leave THE "Customs Union" and seamlessly move to A customs union.
Delusional...0 -
Fun-fact about the formation of Communist Parties around 1920: the most successful were those which were a split off from established parties, the ones which were formed independently tended to die on their arse.williamglenn said:Chapman has just given a hint that the rally on the 9th of September will be the official launch of the Democrats.
Will the Democrats have built up a substantial base of defectors and a political structure (inc. councillors and MPs) in time for its birth ... or will it die on its arse?0 -
Stay in the single market, and the customs union.Richard_Nabavi said:What alternative plan do you propose?
0 -
Air Berlin filing for bankruptcy protection. 3 months of operations and then they are done.0
-
I don't think anyones looking very good in this exchange.Scott_P said:0 -
And how exactly do you propose that we do that?Scott_P said:
Stay in the single market, and the customs union.Richard_Nabavi said:What alternative plan do you propose?
0 -
Good question.Richard_Nabavi said:
What alternative plan do you propose? Also, what is the EU's proposal?Scott_P said:
We will seamlessly move to a A customs union, that doesn't exist, that is being drawn up on the back of a fag packet, that requires 27 other states to agree, and that can be implemented in months by the same team that will take 4 years to repair 1 clock...FF43 said:we will leave THE "Customs Union" and seamlessly move to A customs union.
Delusional...
I'm very sceptical that the EU is going to be interested in a tailor-made customs union, not least because there have already been plenty of smoke signals that there is no interest in a sectoral approach. I expect that the EU will ask Britain whether it wants to be in the customs union or outside it. If it doesn't like the idea of being completely outside the customs union, it knows what it has to do.
That this is not to the liking of the 7/10 intense Leavers is hardly the EU's problem. And the 10/10 intense Leavers will not regard this as a problematic choice.0 -
I have just read the feeds of both side's timelines. Isabel Oakeshott seems reasonable. James Chappers is badly embarrassing himself. Inventing the Liberal Democrats Mark II is surely going to be a damp squib, and who would ever employ him again after what he posts about his previous boss?Slackbladder said:
I don't think anyones looking very good in this exchange.Scott_P said:0 -
Whereas accusing Andrew Neil and David Davis of having drink problems is ok?!Scott_P said:
Oh the bitterness of the losers... you're all rich, pay for private therapy don't embarrass yourselves in public0 -
James Chapman is a middle aged man spending his holidays arguing about last years political debates on social media. You don't need babelfish to translate for you what that makes himCornishJohn said:
I have just read the feeds of both side's timelines. Isabel Oakeshott seems reasonable. James Chappers is badly embarrassing himself. Inventing the Liberal Democrats Mark II is surely going to be a damp squib, and who would ever employ him again after what he posts about his previous boss?Slackbladder said:
I don't think anyones looking very good in this exchange.Scott_P said:0 -
You have to be pretty one-eyed not to think that both of them have let themselves down today. Publicly suggesting that someone is mentally ill isn't classy. Publicly suggesting that someone is an alcoholic isn't classy.CornishJohn said:
I have just read the feeds of both side's timelines. Isabel Oakeshott seems reasonable. James Chappers is badly embarrassing himself. Inventing the Liberal Democrats Mark II is surely going to be a damp squib, and who would ever employ him again after what he posts about his previous boss?Slackbladder said:
I don't think anyones looking very good in this exchange.Scott_P said:0 -
https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/897457792872796160isam said:
Whereas accusing Andrew Neil and David Davis of having drink problems is ok?!Scott_P said:
Oh the bitterness of the losers... you're all rich, pay for private therapy don't embarrass yourselves in public0 -
These are all discussions which should have started as soon as Theresa May became PM. It was completely bonkers to leave it until 18 months or even less before we leave, as the EU insisted. At least the UK has a proposal.AlastairMeeks said:
Good question.
I'm very sceptical that the EU is going to be interested in a tailor-made customs union, not least because there have already been plenty of smoke signals that there is no interest in a sectoral approach. I expect that the EU will ask Britain whether it wants to be in the customs union or outside it. If it doesn't like the idea of being completely outside the customs union, it knows what it has to do.
That this is not to the liking of the 7/10 intense Leavers is hardly the EU's problem. And the 10/10 intense Leavers will not regard this as a problematic choice.
In some ways I'm quite encouraged by this. If there's only one proposal on the table, it might happen by default, because it will be too late for our EU friends to do anything else, and certainly too late to put in place customs arrangements for a WTO-only relationship.
Alternatively of course it might all collapse in a smouldering heap. I stand by my 20% probability of this.0 -
O/T - This is fecking hilarious. ANZUK need to become Dominions again.
Australia and New Zealand have become embroiled in an extraordinary diplomatic spat over claims the New Zealand opposition colluded with the Australian Labor party (ALP) in an attempt “to try and bring down the government”.
During a febrile day of politics in both countries, Australia’s foreign affairs minister, Julie Bishop, said New Zealand’s opposition party was threatening the stability of a usually robust partnership between the two nations.
She said she would find it “very hard to build trust” if New Zealand’s opposition Labour party were to win the general election in September.
Her comments came only 24 hours after it was revealed that Australia’s deputy prime minister, Barnaby Joyce, held New Zealand citizenship and may be ineligible to sit in parliament under the Australian constitution, which disqualifies dual nationals.
Malcolm Turnbull’s government currently commands a majority of one seat in the House of Representatives.
But Australia’s ruling coalition has now accused the opposition Labor party of planting a question in the New Zealand parliament in order to extract the information about Joyce’s nationality.
Australian government minister Christopher Pyne accused the ALP of being part of a conspiracy to bring down the government.
“Clearly the Labor party are involved in a conspiracy using a foreign government, in this case New Zealand, to try and bring down the Australian government,” he said.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/15/australia-accuses-new-zealand-opposition-bring-down-government0 -
The problem for the EU is that they have far more interest in ease of customs than we do. Customs only matters for goods, which is their strong point, and not for services, which is ours. Staying in a full customs union is clearly not workable, given the commitment to international trade deals, so a good customs arrangement is the obvious answer.AlastairMeeks said:
Good question.Richard_Nabavi said:
What alternative plan do you propose? Also, what is the EU's proposal?Scott_P said:
We will seamlessly move to a A customs union, that doesn't exist, that is being drawn up on the back of a fag packet, that requires 27 other states to agree, and that can be implemented in months by the same team that will take 4 years to repair 1 clock...FF43 said:we will leave THE "Customs Union" and seamlessly move to A customs union.
Delusional...
I'm very sceptical that the EU is going to be interested in a tailor-made customs union, not least because there have already been plenty of smoke signals that there is no interest in a sectoral approach. I expect that the EU will ask Britain whether it wants to be in the customs union or outside it. If it doesn't like the idea of being completely outside the customs union, it knows what it has to do.
That this is not to the liking of the 7/10 intense Leavers is hardly the EU's problem. And the 10/10 intense Leavers will not regard this as a problematic choice.0 -
The EU will have a proposal, and that will be the default. It won't quite be take it or leave it, but it won't be far away. My assessment of a smouldering heap is somewhere around 60% at present and rising.Richard_Nabavi said:
These are all discussions which should have started as soon as Theresa May became PM. It was completely bonkers to leave it until 18 months or even less before we leave, as the EU insisted. At least the UK has a proposal.AlastairMeeks said:
Good question.
I'm very sceptical that the EU is going to be interested in a tailor-made customs union, not least because there have already been plenty of smoke signals that there is no interest in a sectoral approach. I expect that the EU will ask Britain whether it wants to be in the customs union or outside it. If it doesn't like the idea of being completely outside the customs union, it knows what it has to do.
That this is not to the liking of the 7/10 intense Leavers is hardly the EU's problem. And the 10/10 intense Leavers will not regard this as a problematic choice.
In some ways I'm quite encouraged by this. If there's only one proposal on the table, it might happen by default, because it will be too late for our EU friends to do anything else, and certainly too late to put in place customs arrangements for a WTO-only relationship.
Alternatively of course it might all collapse in a smouldering heap. I stand by my 20% probability of this.0 -
It seems to offer the possibility of a lucrative post-Brexit business, whereby we agree to grant UK citizenship to Australian politicians, in return for a modest fee from their enemies.TheScreamingEagles said:O/T - This is fecking hilarious. ANZUK need to become Dominions again.
0 -
This is a very complex but interesting topic0
-
I have no dog in this fight as I don't think much of Isabel Oakeshott after the unprofessional piggate mess. The difference is one or two moderately stated comments on her timeline versus a ranting mess on his. The man has ruined his career. It's sad.AlastairMeeks said:
You have to be pretty one-eyed not to think that both of them have let themselves down today. Publicly suggesting that someone is mentally ill isn't classy. Publicly suggesting that someone is an alcoholic isn't classy.CornishJohn said:
I have just read the feeds of both side's timelines. Isabel Oakeshott seems reasonable. James Chappers is badly embarrassing himself. Inventing the Liberal Democrats Mark II is surely going to be a damp squib, and who would ever employ him again after what he posts about his previous boss?Slackbladder said:
I don't think anyones looking very good in this exchange.Scott_P said:0 -
As usual, the word "clearly" is the weak point in the argument. There was nothing on the referendum voting slip about international trade deals.CornishJohn said:
The problem for the EU is that they have far more interest in ease of customs than we do. Customs only matters for goods, which is their strong point, and not for services, which is ours. Staying in a full customs union is clearly not workable, given the commitment to international trade deals, so a good customs arrangement is the obvious answer.AlastairMeeks said:
Good question.Richard_Nabavi said:
What alternative plan do you propose? Also, what is the EU's proposal?Scott_P said:
We will seamlessly move to a A customs union, that doesn't exist, that is being drawn up on the back of a fag packet, that requires 27 other states to agree, and that can be implemented in months by the same team that will take 4 years to repair 1 clock...FF43 said:we will leave THE "Customs Union" and seamlessly move to A customs union.
Delusional...
I'm very sceptical that the EU is going to be interested in a tailor-made customs union, not least because there have already been plenty of smoke signals that there is no interest in a sectoral approach. I expect that the EU will ask Britain whether it wants to be in the customs union or outside it. If it doesn't like the idea of being completely outside the customs union, it knows what it has to do.
That this is not to the liking of the 7/10 intense Leavers is hardly the EU's problem. And the 10/10 intense Leavers will not regard this as a problematic choice.
What is convenient for Britain might well be seen by the EU as a dangerous precedent. My assessment is that they are prepared to put up with a reasonable amount of pain in order to preserve the integrity of the EU's workings. You might well think that is highly unwise or ideological (ironic, given how unwise and ideological most Leavers are), but you don't need to search far to find Eurocrats who feel that way.
Many Leavers remain stuck in the "but the German car manufacturers will insist" frame of mind, despite the abundant evidence that they won't.0 -
I thought this came up with Michael Howard.Nigelb said:
I think it's been constitutionally fine for Catholics to be PM since the Catholic Emancipation Act ?TheScreamingEagles said:
We can't have a Papist as Prime Minister, just imagine when he has to recommend to Her Majesty a new candidate for Archbishop of Canterbury or any other Bishopric, it's a constitutional crisis in the making.TOPPING said:
Sounds like the (second?) favourite for leader of the Cons (speaking of his opposition to gay marriage): "I take the whip from the hierarchy of the Roman Catholic Church"TheScreamingEagles said:One for PB's religious crimes unit.
Melbourne archbishop says he'd rather go to jail than report child abuse heard in confession.
Denis Hart says ‘communication with God is of a higher order’ after child sex abuse inquiry calls for failure to report to become a criminal offence
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/15/melbourne-archbishop-says-hed-rather-go-to-jail-than-report-child-abuse-heard-in-confession?CMP=twt_gu
Can we trust this fifth columnist who owes his allegiance to Rome?
Plus will the Tory/DUP alliance fall because of Jacob Rees-Mogg?
There is some argument as to whether a Catholic PM and/or his/her cabinet might be barred from advising on the appointment of Bishops, but I can't see any resulting constitutional crisis escaping the proverbial teacup
Surely Tory defectors are just as likely as the DUP to bring down a Moggovernment ?
It was agreed in advance - if Howard became PM he would nominate another senior Cabinet Minister to handle all Church of England appointments / other issues and that Minister would advise the Queen directly with Howard playing no role.
It was agreed there was no problem.0 -
It gets even funnier.Richard_Nabavi said:
It seems to offer the possibility of a lucrative post-Brexit business, whereby we agree to grant UK citizenship to Australian politicians, in return for a modest fee from their enemies.TheScreamingEagles said:O/T - This is fecking hilarious. ANZUK need to become Dominions again.
https://twitter.com/MartinHoscik/status/8974584163351142400 -
No sign of it at the moment, and it's hard to see how they could come up with something in secret. So I'm not sure they will have a proposal, or at least a coherent one which will answer the Irish problem and be worth us paying for.AlastairMeeks said:The EU will have a proposal...
But who knows? Contrary to what the media keep saying, it's the EU, not the UK, which doesn't seem to know what it wants.0 -
The UK knows what it wants. Unfortunately that remains having its cake and eating it. That isn't going to be taken seriously.Richard_Nabavi said:
No sign of it at the moment, and it's hard to see how they could come up with something in secret. So I'm not sure they will have a proposal, or at least a coherent one which will answer the Irish problem and be worth us paying for.AlastairMeeks said:The EU will have a proposal...
But who knows? Contrary to what the media keep saying, it's the EU, not the UK, which doesn't seem to know what it wants.0
