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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » When TMay apologists try to excuse her GE17 humiliation by bragging about increased CON vote share show them this chart
In the run up to the CON conference at the start of October you are going to hear a lot about about how the Tory national vote share on June 8th went up to levels higher than Mrs Thatcher achieved with the implication that it wasn’t quite as bad as might appear.
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Comparing the vote share of major parties is just a poor proxy for this.
Corbyn denied May a majority, Blair won 3.
Presumably the Brexiteers in Cabinet have accepted it - so hopefully they can convince those outside of Cabinet. That the UK is moving to a united position of what we want is surely a good sign.
But that takes us to rounding errors again...
Cake and eating thereof...
The reality is that the way the opposition vote breaks is key to the result for a party but it difficult to see what a leader does about it. What you should surely be judged on is the number you get to vote for you. And on that measure May did alright.
Which begs the more obvious question why was such a short period stated? Well, obviously, because it had been put in after the original constitution (which declared the union indissoluble and irrevocable) was twice voted down, but as it was meant to be essentially the same nobody would ever use it and therefore it didn't matter if it was drawn up hurriedly and was badly thought through.
Valery Gisceard has a lot to answer for, and I'm not just talking about his more - ahem - interesting business activities.
And if we had been more like then French for the last 40 years, ignoring the EU when it didn't suit us and roundly exploiting it when it did, there is no way there would have been a Leave vote last year.
Northern comedian struggles at Edinburgh fringe
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4790754/Alex-Salmond-sexism-storm-degrading-joke.html
It's a threadbare attempt to maintain the Brexit delusion for a while longer but it is useless as an ostensible position paper. These are reasons why the negotiations are going so crap for us.
Oh, and SeanT flounced. Again. He has more encores than the Rolling Stones ...
On a technical point, more than 10 seats were won by other parties in England AND WALES - you have overlooked the 4 PC seats. I suggest that you remove Wales from the thread header. Parts of Wales, in particular Y Fro Gymraeg, and to a lesser extent the South Wales valleys, where the Tories are loathed for the way they destroyed the mining industry, behave differently from England from an electoral perspective.
Are there May apologists?
However, the SNP were still first in Scotland.
On the other hand, with our broken electoral system, the precise number of seats that a party wins is just a fluke - hence all parties have said, since the election "If there had been only 900 more votes, in the right places, we would have won 20 more seats" etc etc.
And Littlefinger Hammond thinks the EU are ready to embrace modernity ? lol.
The large membership (given that it finally mobilised) has another advantage, if used correctly - getting more data on individual interests and leanings. The Tories did that really well by phone in 2015 - if X was worried about Salmond, they'd get material specifically targeted at that. In 2017, short of both people and time, they struggled to repeat that.
When the third party votes collapse - as happened this year - it's very hard indeed to absolve a leader of one of the major parties who loses out in the tussle as May did.
On that note, there's an interesting full page analysis of the Colne Valley result in this morning's FT, where Tory Jason McCartney was overwhelming favourite to retain his seat, and (narrowly) didn't.
Particularly unhelpful was the May visit where in a public meeting she dismissed concerns about a local hospital closure as 'scaremongering' (the closure is almost certainly happening). "Went down like a lead balloon" according to McCartney...
Thank Nick Timothy et al!!!.
If an extended customs union is so good, then why not stay in indefinitely?
The truth is that our cabinet is implementing a bad idea incompetently. Those that are competent do not believe in Brexit, and those that do believe are not competent.
Dr. Foxinsox, I don't believe the Venn diagram of competence and being an EU-phile is a circle. Do you really think everyone who disagrees with you about it is incompetent?
Can't see the EU going for it mind you as it's too forward thinking.
All this discussion over transition deals ignores the other half of the table. Any transition deal or extension of A50 is in the gift of the EU27. The default is cliff edge Brexit in 18 months, though allowing for a ratification period, probably barely 12 months.
Hard Brexit is the default, and any competent government should be prepared for it. I cannot see that we are.
Are negotiations going badly? Anybody's guess but it wouldn't surprise me, our politicians are very poor but in their defence we are outnumbered 27:1 by equally inept bureaucrats.
That is open to debate, what the drones on here will have to accept eventually is that we're leaving and there will not be another referendum.
There is something very unedifying about watching children cry when they've had their toys removed, some on here really need to grow up, its pathetic.
Women had better sex under socialism:
"A comparative sociological study of East and West Germans conducted after reunification in 1990 found that Eastern women had twice as many orgasms as Western women."
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/12/opinion/why-women-had-better-sex-under-socialism.html?action=click&contentCollection=U.S.&module=Trending&version=Full®ion=Marginalia&pgtype=article&_r=0
As far as I can tell most of the Remain posters on here are like me. They accept the result and the outcome, despite being unhappy about it.
Name names, please, or I will think you are calling me childish, and I won't like it.
https://mobile.twitter.com/christopherhope/status/896840658534764544
Says it all about the EU - its a protectionist cartel.
What % of EU countries account for that 50%? How dependent are we on trade with Malta?
It is utterly ridiculous that Malta has the same voting power ie 1 in 27, as Germany.
I think I see a flaw in this plan...
If diehard Remainers had not been shouting so vociferously that May's Brexit was 'not what referendum voters voted for' there would have been less pressure for a general election. As it was although the result was close May still came out on top and the anti Brexit LDs ended up falling back in voteshare even further even if they gained a few seats
See what I mean?
If you look at the chart of polls in the weeks leading up to the Election, Labour was advancing fast and showed no sign of stopping. I know loyalists like yourself on here kept telling us that they had peaked, but there was no evidence of it. I reckon another week and Labour would have taken the lead, Corbyn would have been PM.
Btw, do you know what happened to Black Rook? He posted regularly and at great length before the election but I haven't noticed him since. I hope he's ok, but fear he lost a lot of money and has done a Stuart Truth as a result.
Any news of him would be appreciated.
Baffling.
https://twitter.com/bbcr4today/status/897357920521867265
Free trade, everywhere with everybody, is the way forward.
- doesn't look like the packaging on the box
- contains toxic materials
- is irretrievably broken
- isn't as good as the toys everyone else in the EU has
the tears before bedtime will be epic
Just because someone thinks Brexit is a clusterfuck doesn't mean they don't accept the result. That's like saying nobody should speak up in favour of Corbyn because May won the election (sort of).
That would be....er....a bit childish?
iPlayer is also so poorly coded / insecure that people have released apps that just let you connect to it without any log in.
The execution of the referendum result, so far, has varied between mostly lacklustre and incompetent (although the EU do appear to be quite cretinous on citizens' rights and imposing EU law on certain people in the UK). That doesn't mean the policy is wrong, just the execution.
The alternative is staying in an EU that inexorably moves towards greater integration, whittling away vetoes and gathering powers in Brussels.
https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/897352691931897856
They haven't even come up with a proper deal on expats yet. Moreover, they were the ones who refused to enter into meaningful discussions on broad principles prior to the start of detailed negotiations.
Until both sides are willing to discuss points, there are limits to how far positions can be prepared. That's the reason why the short time frame is so stupid.
The same reason birth rates go up nine months after a bad winter.
It's a brilliant system, putting off people (not many, I suspect, but still) who are law-abiding whilst enabling criminals easy access by incompetent design.
Karel De Gucht described the plans being put forward today by the Government as “very problematic” and at odds with Brussels’ ideas for a transitional period.
The Belgian, who was European Commissioner for Trade between 2010 and 2014, suggested the EU would accept the status quo on customs for several years only its terms.
They would be Britain abiding by decisions of the European Court of Justice, paying contributions – and not seeking to sign preferential trade deals with third countries.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-brexit-borders-uk-customs-union-temporary-plan-commissioner-karel-de-gucht-european-union-britain-a7893606.html
More CEOs quit Trump's business council. I suspect more will by the end of the day
This is the problem, you have indoctrinated yourself with the EU and refuse to acknowledge that free trading places around the world are flourishing - I believe you've visited Singapore.
You are backward looking and regressive.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/897346182497710080
Since the election the govt have pursued a 'don't scare the horses' policy - trying to negotiate Brexit and talking about consumer protections for various things are all that have really been announced. It is no surprise that Tory share has held and their position improved.
Good. A period of light touch, little change domestic policy is what we need until Brexit occurs, the Corbasm fades and politics returns to a grown up level of debate.
If you will forgive me, your posts tend to suggest a degree of insecurity, as if you were perhaps unsure that Brexit really was a smart idea after all.
Sorry, but that's the way you come across.
They definitely went to work though (probably at a higher rate than women in the West during that time period?).
I also imagine there are some pretty significant methodological challenges when conducting research on orgasm recall years ago.
In a study from the late 80s/early 90s, homophobes were asked about giving equal rights (next of kin status etc) to gay people. Obviously, they opposed. But, when told gay people didn't want those rights, the homophobes shifted in the direction of approving the additional rights.
The responses were based on disagreeing with gay people *not* on the actual question being asked. The same thing happens quite often with other polls and surveys, I think.
But, it still might be the chaotic, moaning spark that lights the fire of a new party.
I am highly sceptical.
But, honestly who the feck amongst us knows anything these days?
Your suggestion was exactly the position I intended to take after June 23rd last year. But I have found many who are used to winning totally unaccepting of the fact that they lost (not including you here, btw) so unbelievably annoying, and unwilling to accept that their views were rejected by the public, that I've been forced to back up my position. Forced to argue not merely from democratic principles, but refight the battles of the referendum on a regular basis.
There are only so many times you can be called bigoted, moronic and stupid by people who lost a political debate before you rightly begin defending yourself.