politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jeremy Corbyn is becoming a very confident and assured politic

FF43 said:

MarqueeMark said:

I went to an interesting talk last night by David Starkey on "Henry VIII - the first Brexiteer?" Entertaining and (as you might expect) well informed. He made a good case for the Catholic church of Henry's time and the EU of ours being very similar beasts. With Juncker as maybe a Borgia Pope.

He was utterly damning of the quality of politicians and the political advisor class today versus those advising Henry VIII. He can't see how Brexit can be delivered. He's on tour I believe - well worth catching.

The comparison between the late mediaeval Catholic church and the EU of today was one of SeanT's better metaphors. I don't however see any Martin Luthers or attempts at a coherent or practical Reformation philosophy

619 said:

TOPPING said:

archer101au said:

I think that many people will actually react very negatively to Corbyn on this. He is pretending to be authentic, now he is just behaving like the politicians he claims to despise.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm in Westminster today and tomorrow, if I see Corbyn, I'll make sure to call him a gentleman purely for his reaction.

That I think is the key issue - he is playing the kind of games he set himself up to oppose.

That only works if May comes across as authentic in her offer. Which she absolutely doesn't, she comes across as desperate.

CarlottaVance said:

UK...laughing stock....shambles....

https://twitter.com/ONS/status/885053759910531074

GIN1138 said:

I think this "reaching out" to Corbyn will be Theresa's final mistake...

She's done!

Nigelb said:

SouthamObserver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

What vile men.

https://twitter.com/StewartMcDonald/status/885047895480832000

Corbyn believes he can get away with anything.

He probably can.

So glad I left.

The "Jeremy doesn't endorse' line reminds me of how Trump dealt with white supremacists during the presidential election.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/11/jeremy-corbyn-pictured-enjoying-pizza-controversial-pro-assad/

MarqueeMark said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Scott_P said:

Ishmael_Z said:

BBC - Trump 'didn't know about son's Russia meeting'. I think the game plan is now clear. Jr. is the fall guy, Sr pardons him as final act in 3 years time.

That relies on Donald Sr not falling in the next 3 weeks years

"as when Ford pardoned Nixon, the pardoned person need not yet have been convicted or even formally charged with a crime." wikip.

That's one hell of a Get Out Of Jail card to hold....

FF43 said:

This is interesting Republican against Republican on Trump's chances of survival. If Trump does eventually fall, it will be because Republicans turned against him.

https://vimeo.com/225156752

Peter_the_Punter said:

FF43 said:

This is interesting Republican against Republican on Trump's chances of survival. If Trump does eventually fall, it will be because Republicans turned against him.

https://vimeo.com/225156752

Nate Silver keeps a running score of Trump's approval rating. Below 40% is generally regarded as dangerously low for any President. He is currently at 39.2% so he's probably just about ok for the time being but he certainly couldn't afford to go much lower.

As you indicate, it's his own Party and the Republican base that will do for him. The Dems are pretty powerless in this respect, and rather like Labour in the UK, they're probably quite happy watching the governing Party flounder for the time being.

CarlottaVance said:

House of Commons Library report on GE2017:

http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7979#fullreport

nunuone said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/brexit/status/885053859126792193

How can wages rise when employers have a choice of a whole continent of people?

DecrepitJohnL said:

FF43 said:

This is interesting Republican against Republican on Trump's chances of survival. If Trump does eventually fall, it will be because Republicans turned against him.

https://vimeo.com/225156752

Trump is not a Republican. That's the key point. He is a former Democrat and on many issues is probably closer to Hillary Clinton than to the wilder GOPpers. His support from both houses is pragmatic and will (imo -- dyor) evaporate as soon as he is seen as a net negative. The end might not come at all but if it does, it will be swift.

TGOHF said:

“I know the pictures tell a different story,” said a source close to the events, “But I know there is nothing going on. I don’t think it’s a quick snog. There may have been a bit of nuzzling on her part but if you look at Seumas’s face, you can see he is not a willing participant.”

CarlottaVance said:

UK...laughing stock....shambles....

https://twitter.com/ONS/status/885053759910531074

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jonathan, could argue whether the sacking or the manner of it was the mistake (or the worse mistake, if you believe both to be wrong).

Osborne was fully aware that he had to leave the cabinet given the role he played in the referendum, he knew he had to take one for the good of the party.

If May had any class she would have allowed him to resign.

May fired Osborne and Gove on her first day, the subsequent behaviour of both men says a lot about them as people - which is why one of them is now back in the Cabinet, and the other isn't.

Roger said:

CarlottaVance said:

UK...laughing stock....shambles....

https://twitter.com/ONS/status/885053759910531074

Perhaps like David Frost wrote in his book 'To England with Love' the English are natural pessimists and don't like things to go well. In which other country he wrote would 'Pleasure Seeker' be an insult?

He said Harold Macmillan's biggest mistake was to say 'You've Never Had it so Good'. When people realised it was true they took fright and voted in a Labour government.

DecrepitJohnL said:

BannedInParis said:

CarlottaVance said:

UK...laughing stock....shambles....

https://twitter.com/ONS/status/885053759910531074

why on earth they didn't hammer that side of things in the election ...

sigh

anyway, May asking for help from the other parties? absolute face palm and asking for this sort of stunt.

Partly because without the small print, it looks like they are saying there is 25 per cent unemployment but mainly because who are they fooling? If you are on a sweet £87,500 gig as the PM's deputy spokesperson or if you are on a fake self-employment zero hours contract as a delivery driver, you know. Voters can tell if they are better or worse off.

BannedInParis said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

BannedInParis said:

CarlottaVance said:

UK...laughing stock....shambles....

https://twitter.com/ONS/status/885053759910531074

why on earth they didn't hammer that side of things in the election ...

sigh

anyway, May asking for help from the other parties? absolute face palm and asking for this sort of stunt.

Partly because without the small print, it looks like they are saying there is 25 per cent unemployment but mainly because who are they fooling? If you are on a sweet £87,500 gig as the PM's deputy spokesperson or if you are on a fake self-employment zero hours contract as a delivery driver, you know. Voters can tell if they are better or worse off.

"yeah, but what about ... " is a remarkably weak riposte.

currystar said:

OchEye said:

currystar said:

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

NickPalmer said:

On topic, it's looking as though May will hang on - we're now just one week to recess, and I can't see an insurrection happening during the summer break. The last danger point is probably when people gather for the Tory conference, but I can't see rebels wanting to wreck that. Otherwise, the Tories look set to try to hang on to the end of Brexit.

That does cast a sidelight on the other point in thethread. Will May want an extension past the next election.

Labour's objective, meanwhile, is not necessarily to seize responsibility for Brexit and the oncoming ecenomic mess, although we'll obviously take an opportunity if it arises. It's to be a strong and stable government in waiting if things fall apart, so the priority is to be confident without being shrill.

There is nothing strong or stable about what Corbyn's Labour has to offer.

What we'll get is economic vandalism.

The Brexiteers are intent on delivering that anyway. This is the Tory problem. Their reputation for economic competence has been shot to pieces.

Record employment? Very low unemployment? I wonder how many other European Countries would like a Government with such economic incompetence.

Low pay, Zero Hour Contracts, Self Employment cons, no pay rises for the past 10 years or only 1% (please don't try the seniority crap, firms are not increasing tech spending to increase productivity when workers are so cheap) - Austerity is a political choice, not one that is economically sensible.

What utter nosense, drive round this Country and look at all the money that is being spent. Then look at Italy, Greece etc. To claim that this Country is going through austerity is complete dribble. Go to any Town Centre on a weekend and look at the number of young people paying £5 per pint. We currently have 6 vacancies for electricans paying £17 per hour and we cannot fill them. We are currently turning away work as we are just too busy. The contrast to 2008/2009 is incredible. The country is booming despite all the nonsense that is written on here.

DecrepitJohnL said:

Dura_Ace said:

RoyalBlue said:

Scott_P said:

FFS

@SophyRidgeSky: Important clarification https://twitter.com/natashac/status/885069102984953856

I wonder how often Sophy Ridge has been inside a tower block for anything other than professional reasons?

Pathetic.

Is this some new test of worthiness? Whether one has been in a tower block or not? I never have and hope never to. I assume they are squalid rookeries of glue sniffing leavers.

Yes and no. You'd have thought the council leader might have knocked on the odd door while canvassing (which she now has) or at least popped in for a look round out of professional curiosity. It's not like they are asking if the civil defence committee chair has captained a nuclear submarine.

FeersumEnjineeya said:

JosiasJessop said:

Dura_Ace said:

RoyalBlue said:

Scott_P said:

FFS

@SophyRidgeSky: Important clarification https://twitter.com/natashac/status/885069102984953856

I wonder how often Sophy Ridge has been inside a tower block for anything other than professional reasons?

Pathetic.

Is this some new test of worthiness? Whether one has been in a tower block or not? I never have and hope never to. I assume they are squalid rookeries of glue sniffing leavers.

I've lived in two tower blocks. In the first yer of Uni I was near the top of a uni residential block in South Woodford (floor 9 from memory), and a few years later I stayed in a room in Skenfrith House off the Old Kent Road.

The latter was possibly an indication of the problem. the owners had recently renovated the flat and it was very nice internally; however you stepped outside into a lift that frequently stank of worriesome bodiy fluids, and the communal area at the bottom was also often unpleasant.

It doesn't matter how much you spend on your flat if one or two families, or even individuals, make the communal areas unpleasant.

I sometimes wonder why UK blocks don't have a "Hausmeister" as in Germany. He (and it usually is a he) is typically resident in the block and ensures that it is kept clean and orderly. It makes for a much pleasanter environment in such buildings.

GeoffM said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

JosiasJessop said:

Dura_Ace said:

RoyalBlue said:

Scott_P said:

FFS

@SophyRidgeSky: Important clarification https://twitter.com/natashac/status/885069102984953856

I wonder how often Sophy Ridge has been inside a tower block for anything other than professional reasons?

Pathetic.

Is this some new test of worthiness? Whether one has been in a tower block or not? I never have and hope never to. I assume they are squalid rookeries of glue sniffing leavers.

I've lived in two tower blocks. In the first yer of Uni I was near the top of a uni residential block in South Woodford (floor 9 from memory), and a few years later I stayed in a room in Skenfrith House off the Old Kent Road.

The latter was possibly an indication of the problem. the owners had recently renovated the flat and it was very nice internally; however you stepped outside into a lift that frequently stank of worriesome bodiy fluids, and the communal area at the bottom was also often unpleasant.

It doesn't matter how much you spend on your flat if one or two families, or even individuals, make the communal areas unpleasant.

I sometimes wonder why UK blocks don't have a "Hausmeister" as in Germany. He (and it usually is a he) is typically resident in the block and ensures that it is kept clean and orderly. It makes for a much pleasanter environment in such buildings.

Before that they were called a Blockwart and had other less pleasant duties.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockleiter

Morris_Dancer said:

Meanwhile, in meddlesome priest news:
https://twitter.com/CatholicHerald/status/885069028116635652

DecrepitJohnL said:

MattW said:

Not particuarly convinced that a manifesto promising unicorns to all and sundry paid for out of the Leprechaun's pot of gold is useful as a source suggestions, but if all those voters fell for it, perhaps they will fall for the stunt too.

You are confusing Labour's costed manifesto with the Conservatives' number-free wishlist that was presumably intended to hide the tax rises the Chancellor can't now make anyway.

eek said:

currystar said:

OchEye said:

currystar said:

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

NickPalmer said:

On topic, it's looking as though May will hang on - we're now just one week to recess, and I can't see an insurrection happening during the summer break. The last danger point is probably when people gather for the Tory conference, but I can't see rebels wanting to wreck that. Otherwise, the Tories look set to try to hang on to the end of Brexit.

That does cast a sidelight on the other point in thethread. Will May want an extension past the next election.

Labour's objective, meanwhile, is not necessarily to seize responsibility for Brexit and the oncoming ecenomic mess, although we'll obviously take an opportunity if it arises. It's to be a strong and stable government in waiting if things fall apart, so the priority is to be confident without being shrill.

There is nothing strong or stable about what Corbyn's Labour has to offer.

What we'll get is economic vandalism.

The Brexiteers are intent on delivering that anyway. This is the Tory problem. Their reputation for economic competence has been shot to pieces.

Record employment? Very low unemployment? I wonder how many other European Countries would like a Government with such economic incompetence.

Low pay, Zero Hour Contracts, Self Employment cons, no pay rises for the past 10 years or only 1% (please don't try the seniority crap, firms are not increasing tech spending to increase productivity when workers are so cheap) - Austerity is a political choice, not one that is economically sensible.

What utter nosense, drive round this Country and look at all the money that is being spent. Then look at Italy, Greece etc. To claim that this Country is going through austerity is complete dribble. Go to any Town Centre on a weekend and look at the number of young people paying £5 per pint. We currently have 6 vacancies for electricans paying £17 per hour and we cannot fill them. We are currently turning away work as we are just too busy. The contrast to 2008/2009 is incredible. The country is booming despite all the nonsense that is written on here.

What is the current market rate for an electrican - is it possibly that its more than £17 an hour...

currystar said:

Its probably slightly higher, an Electrician now for a standard week is earning around £45,000 per year without overtime or any private jobs on a weekend. This reflects just how incredibly buoyant the economy is and its why the nonsense wriiten on here about the Tories economic incompetence grates so much. Does anyone really think if JC got into power and implemented his crazy policies that unemployment would fall and wages will rise?

Morris_Dancer said:

If the EU does actually believe liabilities must be shared and all the assets belong to the EU, how is that a position upon which trust can exist?

eek said:

currystar said:

Its probably slightly higher, an Electrician now for a standard week is earning around £45,000 per year without overtime or any private jobs on a weekend. This reflects just how incredibly buoyant the economy is and its why the nonsense wriiten on here about the Tories economic incompetence grates so much. Does anyone really think if JC got into power and implemented his crazy policies that unemployment would fall and wages will rise?

I'm starting to believe we have a very 2 tier economy - a lot of people on minimum wage up to £16k a year, the rest on £40k plus a year and nothing in between...