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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jeremy Corbyn is becoming a very confident and assured politician

Dear @theresa_may, you asked for ideas so I've sent you our manifesto. I hope it helps to “clarify and improve” your policies #ForTheMany pic.twitter.com/mWu1ezlzLQ

Read the full story here

GeoffM

First!

Sandpit

Second, like Corbyn.

RobD

Douglas!

CarlottaVance

I'm sure Mrs May will have no trouble quoting excerpts from Labour's manifesto:


Labour accepts the referendum result......

....negotiating priorities that have a strong emphasis on retaining the benefits of the Single market and the Customs Union

Freedom of movement will end when we leave the European Union...

So that's out of the Single Market & Customs union then.....and an end to freedom of movement.....sounds like Extreme/Hard/Car Crash (select as appropriate) Brexit then....

CarlottaVance

Also from Labour:

Labour will also retain access to Euratom, to allow continued trade of fissile material, with access and collaboration over research vital to our nuclear industry.

So not 'membership' but 'access' - like the Swiss.....

CarlottaVance

Also good to know:

Labour supports the renewal of the Trident nuclear deterrent.

CarlottaVance

To lighten the mood:

New Zealand claims mince on toast as US website calls it 'British classic'

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2017/jul/12/new-zealand-claims-mince-on-toast-british-classic

New Zealand can have it.......

JackW

CarlottaVance said:

Also good to know:

Labour supports the renewal of the Trident nuclear deterrent.

And the LibDems have Vince's nuclear option too ....

rcs1000

@Carlotta

The truth is that Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party has but a single goal: to bring down Theresa May's government and force a General Election. (With the hope of electing Mr Corbyn PM.)

The idea, therefore, that Mrs May will get even a single iota of support from Jeremy, even if he agrees with every nuance of her position, is farcical. Jeremy wants to be PM, and that requires the government to fall. Whatever Brexit deal Mrs May comes back with will be vehemently opposed.

RationalPlan

back to back garden living in Slough. As a resident of a Slough suburb you can see the signs everywhere, not just in Slough, of course the news likes to show leaky moldy hovels in the worst parts of town, but those tend to be occupied by either illegals or those who bottom rents.

On the walk to the Station for example I see two semi that have been renovated at the same time, obviously by the same owner. Apart from muscular extensions inb all directions, the gardens contain to rather solid looking brick and tile 'home office's' with good glazing etc, in fact they look like the size of a large studio/small one bedroom.

I suspect those two semi's are in effect 6 to 8 studio's now

Rents are just insane. £400 to £600 for a room dpending on size, bathroom access and whether it's in former council accomadation or in a private estate, parking is an extra and everyone has good wi fi. I know one colleague had a child renting a one bedromm above a shop in Slough high street (not a nice one either) for £900.

This is cheap compared to going outside Slough. To the West their are not many small properties until you hit Bracknell or Farnborough or Reading and all the tech jobs and suffocating green belt keep those rents high.

I have another colleague to the North of Heathrow who have just converted their garage to a bedroom with ensuite and mini kitchen with it's own front door. Easily get £700 a month for it. Not bad for just over £10k of work done.

All I can say is end is cut back the size of the green belt and give land owners the right to devlop their own land subject to some building code restrictions.

Here is the really conroversial bit, all those semi's and terraces within 5 minutes walk of a good station or tube need to go. It should be easy for a developer to buy 4 to 6 semi's and build a few 4 storey apartment blocks, it's happened in a few places, usually on busy roads where the noise drives down the value of houses, but over time it's become harder to do.

rcs1000

Yesterday, there was a discussion about what might halt Brexit. I see three things that could delay it, potentially indefinitely. In ascending order of probability:

1. An external security threat so serious that Brexit is put on hold. So, were Russia to invade the Baltics (for example), I think we would find ourselves more concerned with the security of Europe (in general, rather than the EU in particular), and Article 50 would be postponed. This would be akin to the First World War interrupting Irish independence. I'd give this a low probability (say 0.5%).

2. A very serious recession that resulted in sharply rising unemployment and which causes Brexit to become suddenly very unpopular. I would add that Brexit would probably not be the cause of the recession (that would be the fundamentally unbalanced UK economy), but it would likely get the blame. I would assign this a medium probability (5%).

3. Most likely is that Theresa May's government is brought down over the inability to pass a Brexit Bill. (Now, in theory this causes us to crash out to WTO. In reality, I think it would cause the EU to agree to an extension while the UK dithered.) Why would the government be unable to pass a Brexit Bill? Because Mr Corbyn would see it as an opportunity to bring down the government, the DUP would demand a frictionless border with the Republic, and there are enough awkward Conservative Party MPs. I would rate this as an approximately 15% possibility.

There is some overlap between 2 and 3, so I estimate the probability that the UK does not exit in April 2019 (or shortly thereafter) is between 15 and 20%.

CarlottaVance

rcs1000 said:

@Carlotta

The truth is that Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party has but a single goal: to bring down Theresa May's government and force a General Election. (With the hope of electing Mr Corbyn PM.)

The idea, therefore, that Mrs May will get even a single iota of support from Jeremy, even if he agrees with every nuance of her position, is farcical. Jeremy wants to be PM, and that requires the government to fall. Whatever Brexit deal Mrs May comes back with will be vehemently opposed.

True, but there are plenty of hostages to fortune in the Labour manifesto - and Labour is not without its divisions......and of course Corbyn imposed a 3 line whip and voted in favour of leaving Euratom....with sackings/resignations from rebels......

SquareRoot

Jeremy Corbyn hasn't changed, its the people behind him who are getting their act together, nasty though they may be..

edmundintokyo

rcs1000 said:

Yesterday, there was a discussion about what might halt Brexit. I see three things that could delay it, potentially indefinitely. In ascending order of probability:

1. An external security threat so serious that Brexit is put on hold. So, were Russia to invade the Baltics (for example), I think we would find ourselves more concerned with the security of Europe (in general, rather than the EU in particular), and Article 50 would be postponed. This would be akin to the First World War interrupting Irish independence. I'd give this a low probability (say 0.5%).

2. A very serious recession that resulted in sharply rising unemployment and which causes Brexit to become suddenly very unpopular. I would add that Brexit would probably not be the cause of the recession (that would be the fundamentally unbalanced UK economy), but it would likely get the blame. I would assign this a medium probability (5%).

3. Most likely is that Theresa May's government is brought down over the inability to pass a Brexit Bill. (Now, in theory this causes us to crash out to WTO. In reality, I think it would cause the EU to agree to an extension while the UK dithered.) Why would the government be unable to pass a Brexit Bill? Because Mr Corbyn would see it as an opportunity to bring down the government, the DUP would demand a frictionless border with the Republic, and there are enough awkward Conservative Party MPs. I would rate this as an approximately 15% possibility.

There is some overlap between 2 and 3, so I estimate the probability that the UK does not exit in April 2019 (or shortly thereafter) is between 15 and 20%.

Since we're talking delaying not just halting, I think there's also a non-trivial probability that both sides will realise they genuinely need more time to work out the details. I mean, everybody knows the deadline is too tight, no?

I know it needs unaninimity on the EU side and they've been firm on this to date, but it's unusual for the EU to see a can and not kick it.

Roger

edmundintokyo said:

rcs1000 said:

Yesterday, there was a discussion about what might halt Brexit. I see three things that could delay it, potentially indefinitely. In ascending order of probability:

1. An external security threat so serious that Brexit is put on hold. So, were Russia to invade the Baltics (for example), I think we would find ourselves more concerned with the security of Europe (in general, rather than the EU in particular), and Article 50 would be postponed. This would be akin to the First World War interrupting Irish independence. I'd give this a low probability (say 0.5%).

2. A very serious recession that resulted in sharply rising unemployment and which causes Brexit to become suddenly very unpopular. I would add that Brexit would probably not be the cause of the recession (that would be the fundamentally unbalanced UK economy), but it would likely get the blame. I would assign this a medium probability (5%).

3. Most likely is that Theresa May's government is brought down over the inability to pass a Brexit Bill. (Now, in theory this causes us to crash out to WTO. In reality, I think it would cause the EU to agree to an extension while the UK dithered.) Why would the government be unable to pass a Brexit Bill? Because Mr Corbyn would see it as an opportunity to bring down the government, the DUP would demand a frictionless border with the Republic, and there are enough awkward Conservative Party MPs. I would rate this as an approximately 15% possibility.

There is some overlap between 2 and 3, so I estimate the probability that the UK does not exit in April 2019 (or shortly thereafter) is between 15 and 20%.

Since we're talking delaying not just halting, I think there's also a non-trivial probability that both sides will realise they genuinely need more time to work out the details. I mean, everybody knows the deadline is too tight, no?

I know it needs unaninimity on the EU side and they've been firm on this to date, but it's unusual for the EU to see a can and not kick it.

Macron making concerted effort to get the £70 billion financial services business from London in a speech yesterday. As someone from the financial services industry he believes Paris are in an ideal position.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/player/bbc_radio_fourfm

IanB2

edmundintokyo said:

rcs1000 said:

Yesterday, there was a discussion about what might halt Brexit. I see three things that could delay it, potentially indefinitely. In ascending order of probability:

1. An external security threat so serious that Brexit is put on hold. So, were Russia to invade the Baltics (for example), I think we would find ourselves more concerned with the security of Europe (in general, rather than the EU in particular), and Article 50 would be postponed. This would be akin to the First World War interrupting Irish independence. I'd give this a low probability (say 0.5%).

2. A very serious recession that resulted in sharply rising unemployment and which causes Brexit to become suddenly very unpopular. I would add that Brexit would probably not be the cause of the recession (that would be the fundamentally unbalanced UK economy), but it would likely get the blame. I would assign this a medium probability (5%).

3. Most likely is that Theresa May's government is brought down over the inability to pass a Brexit Bill. (Now, in theory this causes us to crash out to WTO. In reality, I think it would cause the EU to agree to an extension while the UK dithered.) Why would the government be unable to pass a Brexit Bill? Because Mr Corbyn would see it as an opportunity to bring down the government, the DUP would demand a frictionless border with the Republic, and there are enough awkward Conservative Party MPs. I would rate this as an approximately 15% possibility.

There is some overlap between 2 and 3, so I estimate the probability that the UK does not exit in April 2019 (or shortly thereafter) is between 15 and 20%.

Since we're talking delaying not just halting, I think there's also a non-trivial probability that both sides will realise they genuinely need more time to work out the details. I mean, everybody knows the deadline is too tight, no?

I know it needs unaninimity on the EU side and they've been firm on this to date, but it's unusual for the EU to see a can and not kick it.

True. Robert surveys the dramatic options, but a gradual slide into obvious unpopularity as the consequences become clearer and the economy gradually deteriorates is just as likely.

OT, the beauty of Corbyn's gesture is that there is almost no response May can give (including no response at all) that improves her position or how she looks.

Casino_Royale

rcs1000 said:

@Carlotta

The truth is that Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party has but a single goal: to bring down Theresa May's government and force a General Election. (With the hope of electing Mr Corbyn PM.)

The idea, therefore, that Mrs May will get even a single iota of support from Jeremy, even if he agrees with every nuance of her position, is farcical. Jeremy wants to be PM, and that requires the government to fall. Whatever Brexit deal Mrs May comes back with will be vehemently opposed.

Yep.

Scott_P

edmundintokyo said:

Since we're talking delaying not just halting, I think there's also a non-trivial probability that both sides will realise they genuinely need more time to work out the details. I mean, everybody knows the deadline is too tight, no?

In his 1959 lecture about the dangerous flaw in how the UK educated its politicians and administrators, Snow decried the way that it had come to be run by a literary and intellectual elite with no practical knowledge of, or interest in, science and industry. “Intellectuals, in particular literary intellectuals, are natural Luddites,” he declared.

The group that ran Vote Leave was a fine example of Snow’s point. Boris Johnson, foreign secretary, studied classics at Oxford university, educating him to promise, “We will win for exactly the same reason that the Greeks beat the Persians at Marathon.” Mr Cummings studied history at Oxford and Mr Gove English. (To be fair to Mr Davis, he studied sciences at Warwick.)

This gulf between theory and practice leaves businesses pleading for the government to recognise that they face potentially disastrous outcomes, and to slow down. It is no more than common sense that if the UK hopes to strike what Carolyn Fairbairn, director-general of the CBI, calls “the most ambitious and comprehensive free trade deal in history” with the EU, it needs time.


https://www.ft.com/content/f8658320-661d-11e7-9a66-93fb352ba1fe

Essexit

Corbyn's gesture shows he'd rather be a meme than a proper politician.

FF43

edmundintokyo said:

rcs1000 said:

Yesterday, there was a discussion about what might halt Brexit. I see three things that could delay it, potentially indefinitely. In ascending order of probability:

1. An external security threat so serious that Brexit is put on hold. So, were Russia to invade the Baltics (for example), I think we would find ourselves more concerned with the security of Europe (in general, rather than the EU in particular), and Article 50 would be postponed. This would be akin to the First World War interrupting Irish independence. I'd give this a low probability (say 0.5%).

2. A very serious recession that resulted in sharply rising unemployment and which causes Brexit to become suddenly very unpopular. I would add that Brexit would probably not be the cause of the recession (that would be the fundamentally unbalanced UK economy), but it would likely get the blame. I would assign this a medium probability (5%).

3. Most likely is that Theresa May's government is brought down over the inability to pass a Brexit Bill. (Now, in theory this causes us to crash out to WTO. In reality, I think it would cause the EU to agree to an extension while the UK dithered.) Why would the government be unable to pass a Brexit Bill? Because Mr Corbyn would see it as an opportunity to bring down the government, the DUP would demand a frictionless border with the Republic, and there are enough awkward Conservative Party MPs. I would rate this as an approximately 15% possibility.

There is some overlap between 2 and 3, so I estimate the probability that the UK does not exit in April 2019 (or shortly thereafter) is between 15 and 20%.

Since we're talking delaying not just halting, I think there's also a non-trivial probability that both sides will realise they genuinely need more time to work out the details. I mean, everybody knows the deadline is too tight, no?

I know it needs unaninimity on the EU side and they've been firm on this to date, but it's unusual for the EU to see a can and not kick it.

I think that's likely but the EU would only be minded to delay on those grounds if it felt the talks were progressing well. The problem is the UK government is taking a very transactional approach by offering the least it thinks it can get away with, presumably to barter against other things later. The EU is much less likely to delay in that context, even though there isn't enough time anyway.

NickPalmer

edmundintokyo said:

<

Since we're talking delaying not just halting, I think there's also a non-trivial probability that both sides will realise they genuinely need more time to work out the details. I mean, everybody knows the deadline is too tight, no?

I know it needs unaninimity on the EU side and they've been firm on this to date, but it's unusual for the EU to see a can and not kick it.

Ageed. That does presuppose that it's clear that things are moving forward, some aspects have been agreed, and there's a degree of goodwill. If we're still in anything like "go whistle" mood, the EU will just want to get it over with. It's the difference between an anicable divorce and a screaming one.

daodao

RationalPlan said:

back to back garden living in Slough. As a resident of a Slough suburb you can see the signs everywhere, not just in Slough, of course the news likes to show leaky moldy hovels in the worst parts of town, but those tend to be occupied by either illegals or those who bottom rents.

On the walk to the Station for example I see two semi that have been renovated at the same time, obviously by the same owner. Apart from muscular extensions inb all directions, the gardens contain to rather solid looking brick and tile 'home office's' with good glazing etc, in fact they look like the size of a large studio/small one bedroom.

I suspect those two semi's are in effect 6 to 8 studio's now

Rents are just insane. £400 to £600 for a room dpending on size, bathroom access and whether it's in former council accomadation or in a private estate, parking is an extra and everyone has good wi fi. I know one colleague had a child renting a one bedromm above a shop in Slough high street (not a nice one either) for £900.

This is cheap compared to going outside Slough. To the West their are not many small properties until you hit Bracknell or Farnborough or Reading and all the tech jobs and suffocating green belt keep those rents high.

I have another colleague to the North of Heathrow who have just converted their garage to a bedroom with ensuite and mini kitchen with it's own front door. Easily get £700 a month for it. Not bad for just over £10k of work done.

All I can say is end is cut back the size of the green belt and give land owners the right to devlop their own land subject to some building code restrictions.

Here is the really conroversial bit, all those semi's and terraces within 5 minutes walk of a good station or tube need to go. It should be easy for a developer to buy 4 to 6 semi's and build a few 4 storey apartment blocks, it's happened in a few places, usually on busy roads where the noise drives down the value of houses, but over time it's become harder to do.

Much of England, especially in the SE, is fully full to bursting. The solution is less immigration, not building on the green belt. Immigration also has an indirect effect, as most alien immigrant communities (especially but not only Muslims) regard contraception as sinful. Brexit should help in part.

IanB2

Meanwhile, the UK faces a new thread with the "Menace of the exploding Argos tables" !

http://www.scoopnest.com/user/SkyNews/884878659101839360

TOPPING

@rcs1000 has it right.

It's the opposition's job to oppose. As @NickPalmer said recently Lab want to move to a perception of government in waiting.

The risk however is that this is seen as good for the party and bad for the country.

TOPPING

Blimey Tim Henman is going to sound exactly like IDS in 10 years time. He's already a pretty good version.

Recidivist

TOPPING said:

@rcs1000 has it right.


The risk however is that this is seen as good for the party and bad for the country.

Putting party above country is something the Conservatives probably have a patent on.

nichomar

What caused yesterdays drop in pound to a six month low against the euro?

IanB2

Recidivist said:

TOPPING said:

@rcs1000 has it right.


The risk however is that this is seen as good for the party and bad for the country.

Putting party above country is something the Conservatives probably have a patent on.

That is normally Labour's default position. But the Tories have lost sight of their purpose and values through their political obsession with Brexit.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/lsebrexitvote/status/885016035002372096

NickPalmer

On topic, it's looking as though May will hang on - we're now just one week to recess, and I can't see an insurrection happening during the summer break. The last danger point is probably when people gather for the Tory conference, but I can't see rebels wanting to wreck that. Otherwise, the Tories look set to try to hang on to the end of Brexit.

That does cast a sidelight on the other point in thethread. Will May want an extension past the next election.

Labour's objective, meanwhile, is not necessarily to seize responsibility for Brexit and the oncoming ecenomic mess, although we'll obviously take an opportunity if it arises. It's to be a strong and stable government in waiting if things fall apart, so the priority is to be confident without being shrill.

OchEye

CarlottaVance said:

rcs1000 said:

@Carlotta

The truth is that Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party has but a single goal: to bring down Theresa May's government and force a General Election. (With the hope of electing Mr Corbyn PM.)

The idea, therefore, that Mrs May will get even a single iota of support from Jeremy, even if he agrees with every nuance of her position, is farcical. Jeremy wants to be PM, and that requires the government to fall. Whatever Brexit deal Mrs May comes back with will be vehemently opposed.

Er! And if the Tories were in Opposition and PM Corbyn asked for help, such as May is doing now, the Tory Party would be only too happy to do so? Don't think so somehow. Too many Tory supporters would be tearing up their membership cards and never voting for the blues again, or until that unspeakable Tory leader had been replaced...

Mortimer

NickPalmer said:

On topic, it's looking as though May will hang on - we're now just one week to recess, and I can't see an insurrection happening during the summer break. The last danger point is probably when people gather for the Tory conference, but I can't see rebels wanting to wreck that. Otherwise, the Tories look set to try to hang on to the end of Brexit.

That does cast a sidelight on the other point in thethread. Will May want an extension past the next election.

Labour's objective, meanwhile, is not necessarily to seize responsibility for Brexit and the oncoming ecenomic mess, although we'll obviously take an opportunity if it arises. It's to be a strong and stable government in waiting if things fall apart, so the priority is to be confident without being shrill.

This has been pretty obvious since the 9th May, to be honest. Leaders are toppled quickly in the Tory party; not for us the dawdling over Blair, Brown and Corbo.

TOPPING

Recidivist said:

TOPPING said:

@rcs1000 has it right.


The risk however is that this is seen as good for the party and bad for the country.

Putting party above country is something the Conservatives probably have a patent on.

In which case they give up the moral advantage, such as it is.

Ishmael_Z

CarlottaVance said:

To lighten the mood:

New Zealand claims mince on toast as US website calls it 'British classic'

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2017/jul/12/new-zealand-claims-mince-on-toast-british-classic

New Zealand can have it.......

"Mince on toast" sounds like a malcolmg assessment of Theresa May's current situation.

Mortimer

Essexit said:

Corbyn's gesture shows he'd rather be a meme than a proper politician.

A meme for the current generation.

Like all shooting stars, he'll burn out soon enough. His time has already past.

TwistedFireStopper

Roger said:

edmundintokyo said:

rcs1000 said:

Yesterday, there was a discussion about what might halt Brexit. I see three things that could delay it, potentially indefinitely. In ascending order of probability:

1. An external security threat so serious that Brexit is put on hold. So, were Russia to invade the Baltics (for example), I think we would find ourselves more concerned with the security of Europe (in general, rather than the EU in particular), and Article 50 would be postponed. This would be akin to the First World War interrupting Irish independence. I'd give this a low probability (say 0.5%).

2. A very serious recession that resulted in sharply rising unemployment and which causes Brexit to become suddenly very unpopular. I would add that Brexit would probably not be the cause of the recession (that would be the fundamentally unbalanced UK economy), but it would likely get the blame. I would assign this a medium probability (5%).

3. Most likely is that Theresa May's government is brought down over the inability to pass a Brexit Bill. (Now, in theory this causes us to crash out to WTO. In reality, I think it would cause the EU to agree to an extension while the UK dithered.) Why would the government be unable to pass a Brexit Bill? Because Mr Corbyn would see it as an opportunity to bring down the government, the DUP would demand a frictionless border with the Republic, and there are enough awkward Conservative Party MPs. I would rate this as an approximately 15% possibility.

There is some overlap between 2 and 3, so I estimate the probability that the UK does not exit in April 2019 (or shortly thereafter) is between 15 and 20%.

Since we're talking delaying not just halting, I think there's also a non-trivial probability that both sides will realise they genuinely need more time to work out the details. I mean, everybody knows the deadline is too tight, no?

I know it needs unaninimity on the EU side and they've been firm on this to date, but it's unusual for the EU to see a can and not kick it.

Macron making concerted effort to get the £70 billion financial services business from London in a speech yesterday. As someone from the financial services industry he believes Paris are in an ideal position.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/player/bbc_radio_fourfm

Your golden boy losing a bit of his lustre..........

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/11/slur-africans-macron-radical-pretence-over?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=234614&subid=14421590&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Ah, the manifesto that won 13 million votes. Or, to rephrase, the manifesto rejected by the electorate.

Losing less badly than expected is still losing.

Anyway, when a bit more awake I'm going to give the markets another look. Huzzah for Konta's triumph yesterday!

OldKingCole

Intersting interview with Vince Cable in the Guardian here. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/11/vince-cable-pm-seeking-tory-labour-coalition-hard-brexit

What’s also notable, IMHO anyway, is that the Q&A which followed his speech was descibed as ‘lively’. You couldn’t any (when that) Q&A session with TM as lively.

CarlottaVance

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/lsebrexitvote/status/885016035002372096

However, EFTA membership would also pose some challenges for the UK. Acceding to the EFTA Convention entails a commitment to establish the free movement of persons with the other EFTA countries. Given the anti-free movement sentiments underpinning the ‘leave’ vote in the 2016 referendum, this is likely to attract popular opposition and be resisted by the UK government.

IanB2

OldKingCole said:

Intersting interview with Vince Cable in the Guardian here. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/11/vince-cable-pm-seeking-tory-labour-coalition-hard-brexit

What’s also notable, IMHO anyway, is that the Q&A which followed his speech was descibed as ‘lively’. You couldn’t any (when that) Q&A session with TM as lively.

George Osborne asked Vince if his son could canvass for the LibDems....

Scrapheap_as_was

As a PB Tory with wet leanings - this now is our 'suck it up' period.

Some might say it was overdue I guess given the decade or so we've had with the tide behind us... dating back to all the Brown is crap threads.

hamiltonace

nichomar said:

What caused yesterdays drop in pound to a six month low against the euro?

As I have discussed several times in last few months down at the coal face there is a real problem with the UK economy. High quality investment is sparse and the country is being overrun with sandwich shops etc. Was speaking with ex colleague who is in the venture capital industry last week. The main game in town is buying up the last valuable assets left in the country and selling them off to the foreigners. I had 2 offers for my company in the last couple of weeks.

RoyalBlue

hamiltonace said:

nichomar said:

What caused yesterdays drop in pound to a six month low against the euro?

As I have discussed several times in last few months down at the coal face there is a real problem with the UK economy. High quality investment is sparse and the country is being overrun with sandwich shops etc. Was speaking with ex colleague who is in the venture capital industry last week. The main game in town is buying up the last valuable assets left in the country and selling them off to the foreigners. I had 2 offers for my company in the last couple of weeks.

You are depressingly right. I hope you don't sell!

MattW

Not particuarly convinced that a manifesto promising unicorns to all and sundry paid for out of the Leprechaun's pot of gold is useful as a source suggestions, but if all those voters fell for it, perhaps they will fall for the stunt too.

geoffw

CarlottaVance said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/lsebrexitvote/status/885016035002372096

However, EFTA membership would also pose some challenges for the UK. Acceding to the EFTA Convention entails a commitment to establish the free movement of persons with the other EFTA countries. Given the anti-free movement sentiments underpinning the ‘leave’ vote in the 2016 referendum, this is likely to attract popular opposition and be resisted by the UK government.

Since the per capita income of each existing EFTA member exceeds that of the UK there is unlikely to be much of a "challenge" to the UK "given the anti-free movement sentiments underpinning the ‘leave’ vote".

SouthamObserver

The word is hubris. Spell it out in big capital letters and surround it with flashing lights. The Labour left seriously believes that there were 12.8 million votes for socialism on 8th June and has decided to act accordingly.

CarlottaVance

Why Grenfell victim recovery takes time:

He explained that at first investigators carefully collected any visible remains, before police dogs were used to highlight where any more might be. The dogs were able to enter some rooms where investigators couldn't, he said, because they are lighter.

After that, officers began a fingertip search of the building, the longest part of the operation, which involved them looking inch by inch through with small trowels and shovels. These officers use sieves to sift through and remove tiny items. This process continues.

"The sieves go down to 6 millimeters so that we guarantee we can pick up small fragments of bone, teeth, and any identifiable part of the human body we can pick up at that stage," Hutchins said.

"All the debris from that flat is then packaged and is kept to one side and is marked with the floor number and the flat number so we can identify those bags. Then once we have cleared that flat, we then move on to the next flat and the process is repeated again until we have cleared every single flat in this tower block."

https://www.buzzfeed.com/patricksmith/this-is-what-its-like-inside-the-grenfell-tower-recovery

DecrepitJohnL

MattW said:

Not particuarly convinced that a manifesto promising unicorns to all and sundry paid for out of the Leprechaun's pot of gold is useful as a source suggestions, but if all those voters fell for it, perhaps they will fall for the stunt too.

You are confusing Labour's costed manifesto with the Conservatives' number-free wishlist that was presumably intended to hide the tax rises the Chancellor can't now make anyway.

Casino_Royale

NickPalmer said:

On topic, it's looking as though May will hang on - we're now just one week to recess, and I can't see an insurrection happening during the summer break. The last danger point is probably when people gather for the Tory conference, but I can't see rebels wanting to wreck that. Otherwise, the Tories look set to try to hang on to the end of Brexit.

That does cast a sidelight on the other point in thethread. Will May want an extension past the next election.

Labour's objective, meanwhile, is not necessarily to seize responsibility for Brexit and the oncoming ecenomic mess, although we'll obviously take an opportunity if it arises. It's to be a strong and stable government in waiting if things fall apart, so the priority is to be confident without being shrill.

There is nothing strong or stable about what Corbyn's Labour has to offer.

What we'll get is economic vandalism.

SouthamObserver

Casino_Royale said:

NickPalmer said:

On topic, it's looking as though May will hang on - we're now just one week to recess, and I can't see an insurrection happening during the summer break. The last danger point is probably when people gather for the Tory conference, but I can't see rebels wanting to wreck that. Otherwise, the Tories look set to try to hang on to the end of Brexit.

That does cast a sidelight on the other point in thethread. Will May want an extension past the next election.

Labour's objective, meanwhile, is not necessarily to seize responsibility for Brexit and the oncoming ecenomic mess, although we'll obviously take an opportunity if it arises. It's to be a strong and stable government in waiting if things fall apart, so the priority is to be confident without being shrill.

There is nothing strong or stable about what Corbyn's Labour has to offer.

What we'll get is economic vandalism.

The Brexiteers are intent on delivering that anyway. This is the Tory problem. Their reputation for economic competence has been shot to pieces.

GeoffM

DecrepitJohnL said:

MattW said:

Not particuarly convinced that a manifesto promising unicorns to all and sundry paid for out of the Leprechaun's pot of gold is useful as a source suggestions, but if all those voters fell for it, perhaps they will fall for the stunt too.

You are confusing Labour's costed manifesto with the Conservatives' number-free wishlist that was presumably intended to hide the tax rises the Chancellor can't now make anyway.

You've accidentally typed "Labour" and "Conservative" in opposite places there.

JosiasJessop

Scrapheap_as_was said:

As a PB Tory with wet leanings - this now is our 'suck it up' period.

Some might say it was overdue I guess given the decade or so we've had with the tide behind us... dating back to all the Brown is crap threads.

Cameroonism is dying, and will probably soon be as dead as Blairism. The same so-called 'Conservatives' who dance on Cameroonism's grave are largely the ones who will see the party descend to opposition and even irrelevance.

DecrepitJohnL

hamiltonace said:

nichomar said:

What caused yesterdays drop in pound to a six month low against the euro?

As I have discussed several times in last few months down at the coal face there is a real problem with the UK economy. High quality investment is sparse and the country is being overrun with sandwich shops etc. Was speaking with ex colleague who is in the venture capital industry last week. The main game in town is buying up the last valuable assets left in the country and selling them off to the foreigners. I had 2 offers for my company in the last couple of weeks.

Sounds about right. We need a judge-led enquiry into why British entrepreneurs tend to sell out to foreigners rather than let their companies grow, and also take a closer look at what the Americans do with hidden subsidies and protectionism to nurture their industries.

Casino_Royale

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

NickPalmer said:

On topic, it's looking as though May will hang on - we're now just one week to recess, and I can't see an insurrection happening during the summer break. The last danger point is probably when people gather for the Tory conference, but I can't see rebels wanting to wreck that. Otherwise, the Tories look set to try to hang on to the end of Brexit.

That does cast a sidelight on the other point in thethread. Will May want an extension past the next election.

Labour's objective, meanwhile, is not necessarily to seize responsibility for Brexit and the oncoming ecenomic mess, although we'll obviously take an opportunity if it arises. It's to be a strong and stable government in waiting if things fall apart, so the priority is to be confident without being shrill.

There is nothing strong or stable about what Corbyn's Labour has to offer.

What we'll get is economic vandalism.

The Brexiteers are intent on delivering that anyway. This is the Tory problem. Their reputation for economic competence has been shot to pieces.

A highly predictable response, but no. Brexit is a one off process to disentangle ourselves from political union.

There is no question whatever that the Tory administration is fiscally and economically responsible.

Sandpit

CarlottaVance said:

Why Grenfell victim recovery takes time:

He explained that at first investigators carefully collected any visible remains, before police dogs were used to highlight where any more might be. The dogs were able to enter some rooms where investigators couldn't, he said, because they are lighter.

After that, officers began a fingertip search of the building, the longest part of the operation, which involved them looking inch by inch through with small trowels and shovels. These officers use sieves to sift through and remove tiny items. This process continues.

"The sieves go down to 6 millimeters so that we guarantee we can pick up small fragments of bone, teeth, and any identifiable part of the human body we can pick up at that stage," Hutchins said.

"All the debris from that flat is then packaged and is kept to one side and is marked with the floor number and the flat number so we can identify those bags. Then once we have cleared that flat, we then move on to the next flat and the process is repeated again until we have cleared every single flat in this tower block."

https://www.buzzfeed.com/patricksmith/this-is-what-its-like-inside-the-grenfell-tower-recovery

Horrible, and I hope those involved in literally sifting through the remains of the tower block will have adequate support in place for a long time afterwards. They'll need it.

GeoffM

hamiltonace said:

nichomar said:

What caused yesterdays drop in pound to a six month low against the euro?

As I have discussed several times in last few months down at the coal face there is a real problem with the UK economy. High quality investment is sparse and the country is being overrun with sandwich shops etc. Was speaking with ex colleague who is in the venture capital industry last week. The main game in town is buying up the last valuable assets left in the country and selling them off to the foreigners. I had 2 offers for my company in the last couple of weeks.

Now would be a great time to sell.

TOPPING

CarlottaVance said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/lsebrexitvote/status/885016035002372096

However, EFTA membership would also pose some challenges for the UK. Acceding to the EFTA Convention entails a commitment to establish the free movement of persons with the other EFTA countries. Given the anti-free movement sentiments underpinning the ‘leave’ vote in the 2016 referendum, this is likely to attract popular opposition and be resisted by the UK government.

Still sticking to the cake and eat it strategy I see.

Casino_Royale

hamiltonace said:

nichomar said:

What caused yesterdays drop in pound to a six month low against the euro?

As I have discussed several times in last few months down at the coal face there is a real problem with the UK economy. High quality investment is sparse and the country is being overrun with sandwich shops etc. Was speaking with ex colleague who is in the venture capital industry last week. The main game in town is buying up the last valuable assets left in the country and selling them off to the foreigners. I had 2 offers for my company in the last couple of weeks.

Pret A Manager is the most boring sandwich shop on the planet.

Sandpit

DecrepitJohnL said:

MattW said:

Not particuarly convinced that a manifesto promising unicorns to all and sundry paid for out of the Leprechaun's pot of gold is useful as a source suggestions, but if all those voters fell for it, perhaps they will fall for the stunt too.

You are confusing Labour's costed manifesto with the Conservatives' number-free wishlist that was presumably intended to hide the tax rises the Chancellor can't now make anyway.

The Conservatives' numbers were published in the Budget. Tax rises and spending cuts are still needed to the the tune of £50,000,000,000 a year, that the government is currently spending but doesn't earn.

OldKingCole

CarlottaVance said:

Why Grenfell victim recovery takes time:

He explained that at first investigators carefully collected any visible remains, before police dogs were used to highlight where any more might be. The dogs were able to enter some rooms where investigators couldn't, he said, because they are lighter.

After that, officers began a fingertip search of the building, the longest part of the operation, which involved them looking inch by inch through with small trowels and shovels. These officers use sieves to sift through and remove tiny items. This process continues.

"The sieves go down to 6 millimeters so that we guarantee we can pick up small fragments of bone, teeth, and any identifiable part of the human body we can pick up at that stage," Hutchins said.

"All the debris from that flat is then packaged and is kept to one side and is marked with the floor number and the flat number so we can identify those bags. Then once we have cleared that flat, we then move on to the next flat and the process is repeated again until we have cleared every single flat in this tower block."

https://www.buzzfeed.com/patricksmith/this-is-what-its-like-inside-the-grenfell-tower-recovery

Sometimes proper investigation can’t be done in minutes. Or using soundbites!

TheScreamingEagles

Scrapheap_as_was said:

As a PB Tory with wet leanings - this now is our 'suck it up' period.

Some might say it was overdue I guess given the decade or so we've had with the tide behind us... dating back to all the Brown is crap threads.

Indeed.

I still chuckle when IOS complained about the number of Ed is crap threads I wrote, I was right then, and I'm right now, modesty prevents me from pointing out that I was saying Theresa May is crap long before it was fashionable.

GeoffM

DecrepitJohnL said:

hamiltonace said:

nichomar said:

What caused yesterdays drop in pound to a six month low against the euro?

As I have discussed several times in last few months down at the coal face there is a real problem with the UK economy. High quality investment is sparse and the country is being overrun with sandwich shops etc. Was speaking with ex colleague who is in the venture capital industry last week. The main game in town is buying up the last valuable assets left in the country and selling them off to the foreigners. I had 2 offers for my company in the last couple of weeks.

Sounds about right. We need a judge-led enquiry into why British entrepreneurs tend to sell out to foreigners rather than let their companies grow, and also take a closer look at what the Americans do with hidden subsidies and protectionism to nurture their industries.

It's a very strange word association but every time I hear "judge-led enquiry" (hint: you mean 'inquiry') I get a mental image of a geek eating a bacon sarnie.

Jonathan

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

NickPalmer said:

On topic, it's looking as though May will hang on - we're now just one week to recess, and I can't see an insurrection happening during the summer break. The last danger point is probably when people gather for the Tory conference, but I can't see rebels wanting to wreck that. Otherwise, the Tories look set to try to hang on to the end of Brexit.

That does cast a sidelight on the other point in thethread. Will May want an extension past the next election.

Labour's objective, meanwhile, is not necessarily to seize responsibility for Brexit and the oncoming ecenomic mess, although we'll obviously take an opportunity if it arises. It's to be a strong and stable government in waiting if things fall apart, so the priority is to be confident without being shrill.

There is nothing strong or stable about what Corbyn's Labour has to offer.

What we'll get is economic vandalism.

The Brexiteers are intent on delivering that anyway. This is the Tory problem. Their reputation for economic competence has been shot to pieces.

A highly predictable response, but no. Brexit is a one off process to disentangle ourselves from political union.

There is no question whatever that the Tory administration is fiscally and economically responsible.

There's a huge question. The last election cost us £1bn. Brexit is expensive.

logical_song

GeoffM said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

MattW said:

Not particuarly convinced that a manifesto promising unicorns to all and sundry paid for out of the Leprechaun's pot of gold is useful as a source suggestions, but if all those voters fell for it, perhaps they will fall for the stunt too.

You are confusing Labour's costed manifesto with the Conservatives' number-free wishlist that was presumably intended to hide the tax rises the Chancellor can't now make anyway.

You've accidentally typed "Labour" and "Conservative" in opposite places there.

I thought the fact that the Labour manifesto was costed and that the Tory one wasn't was uncontentious common knowledge.

Ishmael_Z

BBC - Trump 'didn't know about son's Russia meeting'. I think the game plan is now clear. Jr. is the fall guy, Sr pardons him as final act in 3 years time.

SouthamObserver

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

NickPalmer said:

On topic, it's looking as though May will hang on - we're now just one week to recess, and I can't see an insurrection happening during the summer break. The last danger point is probably when people gather for the Tory conference, but I can't see rebels wanting to wreck that. Otherwise, the Tories look set to try to hang on to the end of Brexit.

That does cast a sidelight on the other point in thethread. Will May want an extension past the next election.

Labour's objective, meanwhile, is not necessarily to seize responsibility for Brexit and the oncoming ecenomic mess, although we'll obviously take an opportunity if it arises. It's to be a strong and stable government in waiting if things fall apart, so the priority is to be confident without being shrill.

There is nothing strong or stable about what Corbyn's Labour has to offer.

What we'll get is economic vandalism.

The Brexiteers are intent on delivering that anyway. This is the Tory problem. Their reputation for economic competence has been shot to pieces.

A highly predictable response, but no. Brexit is a one off process to disentangle ourselves from political union.

There is no question whatever that the Tory administration is fiscally and economically responsible.

Obviously, a Tory would claim that. But it's not you who needs to be convinced. Equally as obviously, a convinced Labour supporter would say that the party's programme is fully-costed and absolutely viable. Again, that supporter is not the person who needs to be convinced.

As for Brexit - it may be a one time event, but the way it is done will have a lasting impact on the UK economy. There is absolutely no evidence that any ministers apart from Hammond have any interest in what the leaving process might lead to in fiscal and economic terms. And Hammond is absolutely clear about the long-term downsides.

IanB2

Casino_Royale said:

NickPalmer said:

On topic, it's looking as though May will hang on - we're now just one week to recess, and I can't see an insurrection happening during the summer break. The last danger point is probably when people gather for the Tory conference, but I can't see rebels wanting to wreck that. Otherwise, the Tories look set to try to hang on to the end of Brexit.

That does cast a sidelight on the other point in thethread. Will May want an extension past the next election.

Labour's objective, meanwhile, is not necessarily to seize responsibility for Brexit and the oncoming ecenomic mess, although we'll obviously take an opportunity if it arises. It's to be a strong and stable government in waiting if things fall apart, so the priority is to be confident without being shrill.

There is nothing strong or stable about what Corbyn's Labour has to offer.

What we'll get is economic vandalism.

The wonder is that two different flavours of economic vandalism won so many votes between them.

rottenborough

SouthamObserver said:

The word is hubris. Spell it out in big capital letters and surround it with flashing lights. The Labour left seriously believes that there were 12.8 million votes for socialism on 8th June and has decided to act accordingly.

Indeed.

Although I have no idea what will happen next. My hunch is that Labour will still lose. They are a long way from victory - around 60 seats. Next time there will be a proper campaign. But it is no longer inconceivable that 'Jezza is crap, will be PM'.

Capital flight doorways to automatic.

NickPalmer

Mortimer said:

This has been pretty obvious since the 9th May, to be honest. Leaders are toppled quickly in the Tory party; not for us the dawdling over Blair, Brown and Corbo.

How do you interpret the word "quickly" in the current situation? I'm perfectly happy for May to stay on - I think it's both in the national interest (because a chaotic leadership election during Brexit talks is bonkers) and in Labour's interest (because I think people will get terminably tired of the Tories by 2019). But two years doesn't seem very quick to me.

GeoffM

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

As a PB Tory with wet leanings - this now is our 'suck it up' period.

Some might say it was overdue I guess given the decade or so we've had with the tide behind us... dating back to all the Brown is crap threads.

Indeed.

I still chuckle when IOS complained about the number of Ed is crap threads I wrote, I was right then, and I'm right now, modesty prevents me from pointing out that I was saying Theresa May is crap long before it was fashionable.

I don't recall - did IOS complain because he thought they were simply wrong, or because they became tediously monotonous, repetitive and single-toned?

Morris_Dancer

Betting Post

F1: early bets, but I've put tiny sums on Ricciardo for a podium at 3.5, and Raikkonen for pole, 26 each way. In nine races, Raikkonen has had 1 pole and 1 second place. So, the chances are against him finishing top two, but the odds offered are longer than those I believe to be the real case.

Ricciardo has had five podium finishes in a row, or around 55% of races so far. His car was also surprisingly competitive at a circuit that, in recent history, has been all about top line speed.

[NB as usual, neither will count in the weekend records].

Richard_H

Perhaps we should be focusing on Theresa May.

Is Theresa May a good leader of a political party, with the political intellect and sense of purpose that wins support of her colleagues ?

Is Theresa May a good Prime Minister with the range of skills requred to run a cabinet Government, with a huge variety of complex competing demands in front of her on a daily basis ?

Personally, i think Theresa May was ideally suited to the Home Office and in being a darling figure of an certain old fashioned type of Tory that is dying out. She gained popularity for her right wing Tory party conference speeches, where most of her ideas related to Home Office issues. To win the Tory leaders debate simply by having other candidates withdraw, allowed May to be crowned without really being tested. I can't recall May being questioned by large audiences of people, which was the case when Corbyn won the Labour leadership.

It is a case of when Theresa May will face a leadership challenge and i think it could well be within 6 months. If the Tories don't replace May, then they risk not implementing Brexit and seeing Corbyn being Prime Minister. Corbyn seems more pragmatic on Brexit negotiations and the electorate might favour a more sensible approach.

JackW

GeoffM said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

MattW said:

Not particuarly convinced that a manifesto promising unicorns to all and sundry paid for out of the Leprechaun's pot of gold is useful as a source suggestions, but if all those voters fell for it, perhaps they will fall for the stunt too.

You are confusing Labour's costed manifesto with the Conservatives' number-free wishlist that was presumably intended to hide the tax rises the Chancellor can't now make anyway.

You've accidentally typed "Labour" and "Conservative" in opposite places there.

I must have missed the fully costed Conservative manifesto among the maelstrom of praise for Mrs May's campaign. It's amazing what passes you by when the adoring masses were cheering her to the rafters in the vast number of public meetings and debates.

Mind you I do hope to get a copy of that document once our resident rare bookseller @Mortimer puts one up for sale along with a signed first edition of the bible and TSE's elusive tome on "Great AV Threads I Have Known"

IanB2

logical_song said:

GeoffM said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

MattW said:

Not particuarly convinced that a manifesto promising unicorns to all and sundry paid for out of the Leprechaun's pot of gold is useful as a source suggestions, but if all those voters fell for it, perhaps they will fall for the stunt too.

You are confusing Labour's costed manifesto with the Conservatives' number-free wishlist that was presumably intended to hide the tax rises the Chancellor can't now make anyway.

You've accidentally typed "Labour" and "Conservative" in opposite places there.

I thought the fact that the Labour manifesto was costed and that the Tory one wasn't was uncontentious common knowledge.

Labour pretended to cost its proposals and the Tories daren't even to pretend to cost Brexit, is the long and short of it.

GeoffM

logical_song said:

GeoffM said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

MattW said:

Not particuarly convinced that a manifesto promising unicorns to all and sundry paid for out of the Leprechaun's pot of gold is useful as a source suggestions, but if all those voters fell for it, perhaps they will fall for the stunt too.

You are confusing Labour's costed manifesto with the Conservatives' number-free wishlist that was presumably intended to hide the tax rises the Chancellor can't now make anyway.

You've accidentally typed "Labour" and "Conservative" in opposite places there.

I thought the fact that the Labour manifesto was costed and that the Tory one wasn't was uncontentious common knowledge.

Absolutely the reverse. The Conservative one was independently costed in the Budget. The Labour one was just a few uncorroborated numbers of very dubious parentage.

TheScreamingEagles

GeoffM said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

As a PB Tory with wet leanings - this now is our 'suck it up' period.

Some might say it was overdue I guess given the decade or so we've had with the tide behind us... dating back to all the Brown is crap threads.

Indeed.

I still chuckle when IOS complained about the number of Ed is crap threads I wrote, I was right then, and I'm right now, modesty prevents me from pointing out that I was saying Theresa May is crap long before it was fashionable.

I don't recall - did IOS complain because he thought they were simply wrong, or because they became tediously monotonous, repetitive and single-toned?

All of the above.

As I said then, the polling, the plotting by the party to topple the crap leader, and the mood music all pointed one way.

To not do threads on Theresa May and her crapness would be the equivalent of burying your head in the sand.

CarlottaVance

Casino_Royale said:

NickPalmer said:

On topic, it's looking as though May will hang on - we're now just one week to recess, and I can't see an insurrection happening during the summer break. The last danger point is probably when people gather for the Tory conference, but I can't see rebels wanting to wreck that. Otherwise, the Tories look set to try to hang on to the end of Brexit.

That does cast a sidelight on the other point in thethread. Will May want an extension past the next election.

Labour's objective, meanwhile, is not necessarily to seize responsibility for Brexit and the oncoming ecenomic mess, although we'll obviously take an opportunity if it arises. It's to be a strong and stable government in waiting if things fall apart, so the priority is to be confident without being shrill.

There is nothing strong or stable about what Corbyn's Labour has to offer.

What we'll get is economic vandalism.

As Mrs T observed 'That's the trouble with Socialists, they run out of other people's money'....

rottenborough

Labour moderates begin the long process of analysing where they have gone wrong:

http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2017/07/10/comfort-zone-analysis/

"In the end, centrist and centre-left Labour politics did not lose on 8 June. It could not: it was not on the ballot. That kind of politics lost in successive internal Labour elections."

GeoffM

TheScreamingEagles said:

GeoffM said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

As a PB Tory with wet leanings - this now is our 'suck it up' period.

Some might say it was overdue I guess given the decade or so we've had with the tide behind us... dating back to all the Brown is crap threads.

Indeed.

I still chuckle when IOS complained about the number of Ed is crap threads I wrote, I was right then, and I'm right now, modesty prevents me from pointing out that I was saying Theresa May is crap long before it was fashionable.

I don't recall - did IOS complain because he thought they were simply wrong, or because they became tediously monotonous, repetitive and single-toned?

All of the above.

As I said then, the polling, the plotting by the party to topple the crap leader, and the mood music all pointed one way.

To not do threads on Theresa May and her crapness would be the equivalent of burying your head in the sand.

Maybe, but to do threads on something else every now and them would make the site more readable above the line.

Okay, I confess that I can't remember the last time I read a full thread header beginning to end, but I'm thinking about the people who still try.

FF43

Casino_Royale said:

NickPalmer said:

On topic, it's looking as though May will hang on - we're now just one week to recess, and I can't see an insurrection happening during the summer break. The last danger point is probably when people gather for the Tory conference, but I can't see rebels wanting to wreck that. Otherwise, the Tories look set to try to hang on to the end of Brexit.

That does cast a sidelight on the other point in thethread. Will May want an extension past the next election.

Labour's objective, meanwhile, is not necessarily to seize responsibility for Brexit and the oncoming ecenomic mess, although we'll obviously take an opportunity if it arises. It's to be a strong and stable government in waiting if things fall apart, so the priority is to be confident without being shrill.

There is nothing strong or stable about what Corbyn's Labour has to offer.

What we'll get is economic vandalism.

Nick's point is that the economic vandalism will already have happened.

CarlottaVance

JackW said:

GeoffM said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

MattW said:

Not particuarly convinced that a manifesto promising unicorns to all and sundry paid for out of the Leprechaun's pot of gold is useful as a source suggestions, but if all those voters fell for it, perhaps they will fall for the stunt too.

You are confusing Labour's costed manifesto with the Conservatives' number-free wishlist that was presumably intended to hide the tax rises the Chancellor can't now make anyway.

You've accidentally typed "Labour" and "Conservative" in opposite places there.

TSE's elusive tome on "Great AV Threads I Have Known"

Along with 'Fashion Tips for the Gentleman Lawyer'.....

hamiltonace

GeoffM said:

hamiltonace said:

nichomar said:

What caused yesterdays drop in pound to a six month low against the euro?

As I have discussed several times in last few months down at the coal face there is a real problem with the UK economy. High quality investment is sparse and the country is being overrun with sandwich shops etc. Was speaking with ex colleague who is in the venture capital industry last week. The main game in town is buying up the last valuable assets left in the country and selling them off to the foreigners. I had 2 offers for my company in the last couple of weeks.

Now would be a great time to sell.

My head says sell but my heart can't yet. Until my head wins I guess I am stuck only being able to ad hoc comment on pb. :-)

GeoffM

JackW said:

GeoffM said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

MattW said:

Not particuarly convinced that a manifesto promising unicorns to all and sundry paid for out of the Leprechaun's pot of gold is useful as a source suggestions, but if all those voters fell for it, perhaps they will fall for the stunt too.

You are confusing Labour's costed manifesto with the Conservatives' number-free wishlist that was presumably intended to hide the tax rises the Chancellor can't now make anyway.

You've accidentally typed "Labour" and "Conservative" in opposite places there.

I must have missed the fully costed Conservative manifesto among the maelstrom of praise for Mrs May's campaign. It's amazing what passes you by when the adoring masses were cheering her to the rafters in the vast number of public meetings and debates.

Mind you I do hope to get a copy of that document once our resident rare bookseller @Mortimer puts one up for sale along with a signed first edition of the bible and TSE's elusive tome on "Great AV Threads I Have Known"

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spring-budget-2017-documents

TheScreamingEagles

So PMQs today is Damian Green v Emily Thornberry.

TheScreamingEagles

CarlottaVance said:

JackW said:

GeoffM said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

MattW said:

Not particuarly convinced that a manifesto promising unicorns to all and sundry paid for out of the Leprechaun's pot of gold is useful as a source suggestions, but if all those voters fell for it, perhaps they will fall for the stunt too.

You are confusing Labour's costed manifesto with the Conservatives' number-free wishlist that was presumably intended to hide the tax rises the Chancellor can't now make anyway.

You've accidentally typed "Labour" and "Conservative" in opposite places there.

TSE's elusive tome on "Great AV Threads I Have Known"

Along with 'Fashion Tips for the Gentleman Lawyer'.....

I did that thread.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/09/11/some-fashion-advice-for-jeremy-corbyn/

geoffw

@FF43 , @Casino_Royale What do you mean by "economic vandalism"?

FF43

Ishmael_Z said:

BBC - Trump 'didn't know about son's Russia meeting'. I think the game plan is now clear. Jr. is the fall guy, Sr pardons him as final act in 3 years time.

Then that evening Donald Trump Snr tweeted, where are the 30 000 lost emails? Seems a coincidence given the hack was unknown about at that point.

rottenborough

CarlottaVance said:

Casino_Royale said:

NickPalmer said:

On topic, it's looking as though May will hang on - we're now just one week to recess, and I can't see an insurrection happening during the summer break. The last danger point is probably when people gather for the Tory conference, but I can't see rebels wanting to wreck that. Otherwise, the Tories look set to try to hang on to the end of Brexit.

That does cast a sidelight on the other point in thethread. Will May want an extension past the next election.

Labour's objective, meanwhile, is not necessarily to seize responsibility for Brexit and the oncoming ecenomic mess, although we'll obviously take an opportunity if it arises. It's to be a strong and stable government in waiting if things fall apart, so the priority is to be confident without being shrill.

There is nothing strong or stable about what Corbyn's Labour has to offer.

What we'll get is economic vandalism.

As Mrs T observed 'That's the trouble with Socialists, they run out of other people's money'....

I still prefer Oscar Wilde, "the trouble with socialism is that it takes up too many of your evenings."

Jonathan

CarlottaVance said:

Casino_Royale said:

NickPalmer said:

On topic, it's looking as though May will hang on - we're now just one week to recess, and I can't see an insurrection happening during the summer break. The last danger point is probably when people gather for the Tory conference, but I can't see rebels wanting to wreck that. Otherwise, the Tories look set to try to hang on to the end of Brexit.

That does cast a sidelight on the other point in thethread. Will May want an extension past the next election.

Labour's objective, meanwhile, is not necessarily to seize responsibility for Brexit and the oncoming ecenomic mess, although we'll obviously take an opportunity if it arises. It's to be a strong and stable government in waiting if things fall apart, so the priority is to be confident without being shrill.

There is nothing strong or stable about what Corbyn's Labour has to offer.

What we'll get is economic vandalism.

As Mrs T observed 'That's the trouble with Socialists, they run out of other people's money'....

Maggie would not approve of £1bn to pay off the DUP. Tories quite happy to spend other people's money to save their own necks

Charles

nichomar said:

What caused yesterdays drop in pound to a six month low against the euro?

Swing voter on MPC said he's not ready to raise interest rates

Sandpit

CarlottaVance said:

Casino_Royale said:

NickPalmer said:

On topic, it's looking as though May will hang on - we're now just one week to recess, and I can't see an insurrection happening during the summer break. The last danger point is probably when people gather for the Tory conference, but I can't see rebels wanting to wreck that. Otherwise, the Tories look set to try to hang on to the end of Brexit.

That does cast a sidelight on the other point in thethread. Will May want an extension past the next election.

Labour's objective, meanwhile, is not necessarily to seize responsibility for Brexit and the oncoming ecenomic mess, although we'll obviously take an opportunity if it arises. It's to be a strong and stable government in waiting if things fall apart, so the priority is to be confident without being shrill.

There is nothing strong or stable about what Corbyn's Labour has to offer.

What we'll get is economic vandalism.

As Mrs T observed 'That's the trouble with Socialists, they run out of other people's money'....

As @rcs1000 observes above, it's quite likely we'll enter the next recession with the public finances still not fully recovered from the last one nearly a decade ago.

We should be well into the stage in the economic cycle where debt is being paid down and the rainy day fund topped up by now, but the £165bn annual black hole left behind by Brown and his merry men in 2010 has meant we're not there yet.

Corbyn thinks the £165bn deficit was obviously okay, as he'd have us go straight back there, even without accounting (as he didn't in the manifesto) for considerable behavioural changes from those he expects to cough up.

CD13

Mr Eagles,

Perhaps Mrs May felt obliged to call a GE, because she needed a bigger majority? Why? Because of the Tory 'bastards' who wouldn't accept the result of a democratic referendum.

I call them the Osborne Tendency. The mirror is over there (imagine a big smiley face here).

Gideon - Destroyer of the Conservative party.

TheScreamingEagles

CD13 said:

Mr Eagles,

Perhaps Mrs May felt obliged to call a GE, because she needed a bigger majority? Why? Because of the Tory 'bastards' who wouldn't accept the result of a democratic referendum.

I call them the Osborne Tendency. The mirror is over there (imagine a big smiley face here).

Gideon - Destroyer of the Conservative party.

That's why the Tories went from 198 MPs to 331 MPs on George's watch eh?

Jonathan

TheScreamingEagles said:

CD13 said:

Mr Eagles,

Perhaps Mrs May felt obliged to call a GE, because she needed a bigger majority? Why? Because of the Tory 'bastards' who wouldn't accept the result of a democratic referendum.

I call them the Osborne Tendency. The mirror is over there (imagine a big smiley face here).

Gideon - Destroyer of the Conservative party.

That's why the Tories went from 198 MPs to 331 MPs on George's watch eh?

May sacked Osborne. Big mistake. Massive.

Charles

CarlottaVance said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/lsebrexitvote/status/885016035002372096

However, EFTA membership would also pose some challenges for the UK. Acceding to the EFTA Convention entails a commitment to establish the free movement of persons with the other EFTA countries. Given the anti-free movement sentiments underpinning the ‘leave’ vote in the 2016 referendum, this is likely to attract popular opposition and be resisted by the UK government.

Is it free movement as per the EU or free movement of labour?

Also wealth / educational background of EFTA members closer to UK

Won't be a major issue I suspect. How many Scandinavian or Swiss Big Issue salesmen are there?

TheScreamingEagles

Jonathan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CD13 said:

Mr Eagles,

Perhaps Mrs May felt obliged to call a GE, because she needed a bigger majority? Why? Because of the Tory 'bastards' who wouldn't accept the result of a democratic referendum.

I call them the Osborne Tendency. The mirror is over there (imagine a big smiley face here).

Gideon - Destroyer of the Conservative party.

That's why the Tories went from 198 MPs to 331 MPs on George's watch eh?

May sacked Osborne. Big mistake. Massive.

Indeed, even Tory leavers on here like DavidL and Max think it was a huge mistake, not just me.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Jonathan, could argue whether the sacking or the manner of it was the mistake (or the worse mistake, if you believe both to be wrong).

Charles

hamiltonace said:

nichomar said:

What caused yesterdays drop in pound to a six month low against the euro?

As I have discussed several times in last few months down at the coal face there is a real problem with the UK economy. High quality investment is sparse and the country is being overrun with sandwich shops etc. Was speaking with ex colleague who is in the venture capital industry last week. The main game in town is buying up the last valuable assets left in the country and selling them off to the foreigners. I had 2 offers for my company in the last couple of weeks.

There are really great companies still being created though. We see a large number of private businesses and repeat entrepreneurs (some of whom we back privately, although it's not our main business)

CarlottaVance

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

JackW said:

GeoffM said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

MattW said:

Not particuarly convinced that a manifesto promising unicorns to all and sundry paid for out of the Leprechaun's pot of gold is useful as a source suggestions, but if all those voters fell for it, perhaps they will fall for the stunt too.

You are confusing Labour's costed manifesto with the Conservatives' number-free wishlist that was presumably intended to hide the tax rises the Chancellor can't now make anyway.

You've accidentally typed "Labour" and "Conservative" in opposite places there.

TSE's elusive tome on "Great AV Threads I Have Known"

Along with 'Fashion Tips for the Gentleman Lawyer'.....

I did that thread.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/09/11/some-fashion-advice-for-jeremy-corbyn/

I'm not sure Mr Corbyn quite falls into either category - oh, ok 'gentleman' because it would annoy him....

geoffw

Charles said:

CarlottaVance said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/lsebrexitvote/status/885016035002372096

However, EFTA membership would also pose some challenges for the UK. Acceding to the EFTA Convention entails a commitment to establish the free movement of persons with the other EFTA countries. Given the anti-free movement sentiments underpinning the ‘leave’ vote in the 2016 referendum, this is likely to attract popular opposition and be resisted by the UK government.

Is it free movement as per the EU or free movement of labour?

Also wealth / educational background of EFTA members closer to UK

Won't be a major issue I suspect. How many Scandinavian or Swiss Big Issue salesmen are there?

Snap! See 09:53.
edit: sorry, wrong time-zone. 07:53 GMT.