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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jeremy Corbyn is becoming a very confident and assured politic

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  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    GeoffM said:

    JackW said:

    GeoffM said:

    MattW said:

    Not particuarly convinced that a manifesto promising unicorns to all and sundry paid for out of the Leprechaun's pot of gold is useful as a source suggestions, but if all those voters fell for it, perhaps they will fall for the stunt too.

    You are confusing Labour's costed manifesto with the Conservatives' number-free wishlist that was presumably intended to hide the tax rises the Chancellor can't now make anyway.
    You've accidentally typed "Labour" and "Conservative" in opposite places there.
    I must have missed the fully costed Conservative manifesto among the maelstrom of praise for Mrs May's campaign. It's amazing what passes you by when the adoring masses were cheering her to the rafters in the vast number of public meetings and debates.

    Mind you I do hope to get a copy of that document once our resident rare bookseller @Mortimer puts one up for sale along with a signed first edition of the bible and TSE's elusive tome on "Great AV Threads I Have Known"
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spring-budget-2017-documents
    You mean the budget that took place before the election that Mrs May repeatedly told us wasn't going to happen and then put forward different un-costed proposals previously not noted in the non pre-election budget?

    Well that's clear ....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,764
    edited July 2017

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Eagles,

    Perhaps Mrs May felt obliged to call a GE, because she needed a bigger majority? Why? Because of the Tory 'bastards' who wouldn't accept the result of a democratic referendum.

    I call them the Osborne Tendency. The mirror is over there (imagine a big smiley face here).

    Gideon - Destroyer of the Conservative party.

    That's why the Tories went from 198 MPs to 331 MPs on George's watch eh?
    May sacked Osborne. Big mistake. Massive.
    Indeed, even Tory leavers on here like DavidL and Max think it was a huge mistake, not just me.
    Its magnitude is matched only by how totally and utterly unnecessary it was. Madness.

    Why sack your only proven election winner in a generation. The only one the opposition fear.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520

    JackW said:

    GeoffM said:

    MattW said:

    Not particuarly convinced that a manifesto promising unicorns to all and sundry paid for out of the Leprechaun's pot of gold is useful as a source suggestions, but if all those voters fell for it, perhaps they will fall for the stunt too.

    You are confusing Labour's costed manifesto with the Conservatives' number-free wishlist that was presumably intended to hide the tax rises the Chancellor can't now make anyway.
    You've accidentally typed "Labour" and "Conservative" in opposite places there.
    TSE's elusive tome on "Great AV Threads I Have Known"
    Along with 'Fashion Tips for the Gentleman Lawyer'.....
    I did that thread.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/09/11/some-fashion-advice-for-jeremy-corbyn/
    And even with your advice he still didn't do his top button up! It was another year before someone managed to drag him through a tailor's shop.
    image
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345

    Mr. Jonathan, could argue whether the sacking or the manner of it was the mistake (or the worse mistake, if you believe both to be wrong).

    Osborne was fully aware that he had to leave the cabinet given the role he played in the referendum, he knew he had to take one for the good of the party.

    If May had any class she would have allowed him to resign.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345

    JackW said:

    GeoffM said:

    MattW said:

    Not particuarly convinced that a manifesto promising unicorns to all and sundry paid for out of the Leprechaun's pot of gold is useful as a source suggestions, but if all those voters fell for it, perhaps they will fall for the stunt too.

    You are confusing Labour's costed manifesto with the Conservatives' number-free wishlist that was presumably intended to hide the tax rises the Chancellor can't now make anyway.
    You've accidentally typed "Labour" and "Conservative" in opposite places there.
    TSE's elusive tome on "Great AV Threads I Have Known"
    Along with 'Fashion Tips for the Gentleman Lawyer'.....
    I did that thread.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/09/11/some-fashion-advice-for-jeremy-corbyn/
    I'm not sure Mr Corbyn quite falls into either category - oh, ok 'gentleman' because it would annoy him....
    I'm in Westminster today and tomorrow, if I see Corbyn, I'll make sure to call him a gentleman purely for his reaction.
  • Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    However, EFTA membership would also pose some challenges for the UK. Acceding to the EFTA Convention entails a commitment to establish the free movement of persons with the other EFTA countries. Given the anti-free movement sentiments underpinning the ‘leave’ vote in the 2016 referendum, this is likely to attract popular opposition and be resisted by the UK government.
    Is it free movement as per the EU or free movement of labour?

    Also wealth / educational background of EFTA members closer to UK

    Won't be a major issue I suspect. How many Scandinavian or Swiss Big Issue salesmen are there?
    Aren't all the EFTA members in the Schengen Area, though? Could we be in EFTA but not in Schengen?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,468
    edited July 2017
    GeoffM said:

    GeoffM said:

    As a PB Tory with wet leanings - this now is our 'suck it up' period.

    Some might say it was overdue I guess given the decade or so we've had with the tide behind us... dating back to all the Brown is crap threads.

    Indeed.

    I still chuckle when IOS complained about the number of Ed is crap threads I wrote, I was right then, and I'm right now, modesty prevents me from pointing out that I was saying Theresa May is crap long before it was fashionable.
    I don't recall - did IOS complain because he thought they were simply wrong, or because they became tediously monotonous, repetitive and single-toned?
    All of the above.

    As I said then, the polling, the plotting by the party to topple the crap leader, and the mood music all pointed one way.

    To not do threads on Theresa May and her crapness would be the equivalent of burying your head in the sand.
    Maybe, but to do threads on something else every now and them would make the site more readable above the line.

    Okay, I confess that I can't remember the last time I read a full thread header beginning to end, but I'm thinking about the people who still try.
    Whatever the main thrust of each thread they all arrive back at Brexit. The Trump thread yesterday was a case in point.

    At the moment each and every thread could be titled. Brexit, Corbyn, May and the leadership of the Conservative Party. Discuss.

    The thread headers are normally concise and informative. Betwixt the 2015 and 2017 elections I regularly read the threads and avoided the commentaries, The victorious Tory cheerleading could be a little overpowering. I say keep up the good work!

    On topic. Corbyn remains a dangerous clown!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    JackW said:

    GeoffM said:

    JackW said:

    GeoffM said:

    MattW said:

    Not particuarly convinced that a manifesto promising unicorns to all and sundry paid for out of the Leprechaun's pot of gold is useful as a source suggestions, but if all those voters fell for it, perhaps they will fall for the stunt too.

    You are confusing Labour's costed manifesto with the Conservatives' number-free wishlist that was presumably intended to hide the tax rises the Chancellor can't now make anyway.
    You've accidentally typed "Labour" and "Conservative" in opposite places there.
    I must have missed the fully costed Conservative manifesto among the maelstrom of praise for Mrs May's campaign. It's amazing what passes you by when the adoring masses were cheering her to the rafters in the vast number of public meetings and debates.

    Mind you I do hope to get a copy of that document once our resident rare bookseller @Mortimer puts one up for sale along with a signed first edition of the bible and TSE's elusive tome on "Great AV Threads I Have Known"
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spring-budget-2017-documents
    You mean the budget that took place before the election that Mrs May repeatedly told us wasn't going to happen and then put forward different un-costed proposals previously not noted in the non pre-election budget?

    Well that's clear ....
    + the hole that appeared in the budget after failure to progress the NI changes, which was never filled with any new proposal...

    The abortive social care proposals were never costed, as you say, nor the other changes to pensioner benefits and indeed pensions themselves.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,405
    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    However, EFTA membership would also pose some challenges for the UK. Acceding to the EFTA Convention entails a commitment to establish the free movement of persons with the other EFTA countries. Given the anti-free movement sentiments underpinning the ‘leave’ vote in the 2016 referendum, this is likely to attract popular opposition and be resisted by the UK government.
    Is it free movement as per the EU or free movement of labour?

    Also wealth / educational background of EFTA members closer to UK

    Won't be a major issue I suspect. How many Scandinavian or Swiss Big Issue salesmen are there?
    Possibly relevant all current members of EFTA are also members of Schengen.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited July 2017

    JackW said:

    GeoffM said:

    MattW said:

    Not particuarly convinced that a manifesto promising unicorns to all and sundry paid for out of the Leprechaun's pot of gold is useful as a source suggestions, but if all those voters fell for it, perhaps they will fall for the stunt too.

    You are confusing Labour's costed manifesto with the Conservatives' number-free wishlist that was presumably intended to hide the tax rises the Chancellor can't now make anyway.
    You've accidentally typed "Labour" and "Conservative" in opposite places there.
    TSE's elusive tome on "Great AV Threads I Have Known"
    Along with 'Fashion Tips for the Gentleman Lawyer'.....
    I did that thread.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/09/11/some-fashion-advice-for-jeremy-corbyn/
    I'm not sure Mr Corbyn quite falls into either category - oh, ok 'gentleman' because it would annoy him....
    I'm in Westminster today and tomorrow, if I see Corbyn, I'll make sure to call him a gentleman purely for his reaction.
    His parents sent him from the family home Yew Tree Manor to Castle House Preparatory School. He's a gent for sure, which is why he gets on so well with all those fecking Wykehamistas.

    edit: Wykehamistas was a typo, but works well as a descriptor for Seumas Milne.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    F1: gossip column rumour that the Sauber-Honda deal is off. With McLaren perhaps returning to Mercedes engines, that could be curtains for Honda in the sport.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520

    Mr. Jonathan, could argue whether the sacking or the manner of it was the mistake (or the worse mistake, if you believe both to be wrong).

    Osborne was fully aware that he had to leave the cabinet given the role he played in the referendum, he knew he had to take one for the good of the party.

    If May had any class she would have allowed him to resign.
    May fired Osborne and Gove on her first day, the subsequent behaviour of both men says a lot about them as people - which is why one of them is now back in the Cabinet, and the other isn't.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Eagles,

    Perhaps Mrs May felt obliged to call a GE, because she needed a bigger majority? Why? Because of the Tory 'bastards' who wouldn't accept the result of a democratic referendum.

    I call them the Osborne Tendency. The mirror is over there (imagine a big smiley face here).

    Gideon - Destroyer of the Conservative party.

    That's why the Tories went from 198 MPs to 331 MPs on George's watch eh?
    May sacked Osborne. Big mistake. Massive.
    Indeed, even Tory leavers on here like DavidL and Max think it was a huge mistake, not just me.
    Its magnitude is matched only by how totally and utterly unnecessary it was. Madness.

    Why sack your only proven election winner in a generation. The only one the opposition fear.
    Because he's a total and utter See You Next Tuesday.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    nichomar said:

    What caused yesterdays drop in pound to a six month low against the euro?

    As I have discussed several times in last few months down at the coal face there is a real problem with the UK economy. High quality investment is sparse and the country is being overrun with sandwich shops etc. Was speaking with ex colleague who is in the venture capital industry last week. The main game in town is buying up the last valuable assets left in the country and selling them off to the foreigners. I had 2 offers for my company in the last couple of weeks.
    Sounds about right. We need a judge-led enquiry into why British entrepreneurs tend to sell out to foreigners rather than let their companies grow, and also take a closer look at what the Americans do with hidden subsidies and protectionism to nurture their industries.
    Why the judge? Where there are issues of law or justice fine. Where it's a commission there's no need.

    The fact you are calling for a "judge led enquiry" makes me think it's s political game not a serious demand
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    edited July 2017
    Things are going Corbyn's way, it's no wonder he has become more confident and assured. I'm liking him less as he's smug now.

    Mr. Jonathan, could argue whether the sacking or the manner of it was the mistake (or the worse mistake, if you believe both to be wrong).

    The sacking I have no idea, but the manner was dead wrong, leaking a humiliation of him and making what seems an enemy for life. Osborne was chancellor for six years while still a young man - he was never popular, but you shouldn't aggravate someone like that too much just to seem tough, he will be able to hit back eventually, and did.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. kle4, indeed. May was arrogant and her judgement lacking. And it came back to bite her.

    As I said before, I do wonder how Osborne views his vendetta ahead of the election, whether he thinks it was rightly warning of her rubbishness or if he holds himself responsible for the Conservatives losing some knife edge seats.

    F1: I did mention this before, but forgot to on this thread, but I think Bottas at 17 for the title may be worth a little look. It's a three horse race, he's the only one of them with a DNF to his name so far (bad luck, not a driver error) and he *could* be in with a shot.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520

    F1: gossip column rumour that the Sauber-Honda deal is off. With McLaren perhaps returning to Mercedes engines, that could be curtains for Honda in the sport.

    That's not good, but sadly Honda's approach so far has not been conducive to delivering a competitive engine - and they've had three years now. Doesn't bode well for encouraging other engine manufacturers though, they need to make them less complicated and cheaper to produce.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,342
    edited July 2017
    Hmmm.

    As a resident of a Slough suburb you can see the signs everywhere, not just in Slough.

    I suspect those two semi's are in effect 6 to 8 studio's now

    No problem there if they are following the rules (are they?) and doing a good job ... probably far safer than Council run tower blocks. Quite suitable for singletons, couples or pied-a-terres. If they are not then they need to be reported and enforced on.
    Rents are just insane. £400 to £600 for a room depending on size, bathroom access and whether it's in former council accommodation or in a private estate, parking is an extra and everyone has good wi fi. I know one colleague had a child renting a one bedromm above a shop in Slough high street (not a nice one either) for £900.
    Room rents will be inclusive, and ~£100 per month will be heat, light, water and Council tax. Even here, where a decent terrace is £400-475 pcm, people rent rooms at £80-100 a week.

    There seem to be around 50 2-3 bed dwellings in Slough available at £1000-1200 per month from a single market channel. Move out of a room - share with one friend. http://bit.ly/2uh6DWl
    I have another colleague to the North of Heathrow who have just converted their garage to a bedroom with ensuite and mini kitchen with it's own front door. Easily get £700 a month for it. Not bad for just over £10k of work done.
    I have no problem with that either, provided it is legal, decent, and above board (is it?). Again - pied-a-terre or singleton. Good use of assets when more density of housing is required. It is not as if most garages are used for cars.
    All I can say is end is cut back the size of the green belt and give land owners the right to devlop their own land subject to some building code restrictions.
    Agree. The Greenbelt is a Nimby/CPRE (who are always yelling about 400k or 500k 'planned Greenbelt houses', when only about 10-15k a year get built) fetish. Scrubby and brownfield bits of the GB could easily be developed without loss, especially around London inside the M25. There are only a dozen cities with Green Belt anyway.

    Reading, Newbury, Portsmouth, Swindon, Basingstoke, Lincoln and Leicester, for example, have no Green Belt - though there may be other designations.

    Here is the really conroversial bit, all those semi's and terraces within 5 minutes walk of a good station or tube need to go. It should be easy for a developer to buy 4 to 6 semi's and build a few 4 storey apartment blocks.
    Not controversial imo. I would go for develop limited areas on Barbican density - eg Thamesmead. Could easily supply London for a long time. Immigration is also highly relevant, of course.

  • dyingswandyingswan Posts: 189
    I see that Welsh Labour Government has responded to the PMs appeal for new policy ideas with one. Raise tuition fees! You have got to hand it to them. Labour in Opposition bribe youngsters by promising abolition of fees. Labour in government raise them. I love it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    edited July 2017
    FF43 said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    However, EFTA membership would also pose some challenges for the UK. Acceding to the EFTA Convention entails a commitment to establish the free movement of persons with the other EFTA countries. Given the anti-free movement sentiments underpinning the ‘leave’ vote in the 2016 referendum, this is likely to attract popular opposition and be resisted by the UK government.
    Is it free movement as per the EU or free movement of labour?

    Also wealth / educational background of EFTA members closer to UK

    Won't be a major issue I suspect. How many Scandinavian or Swiss Big Issue salesmen are there?
    Possibly relevant all current members of EFTA are also members of Schengen.
    Norway likes being the big beast steering EFTA, and is not necessarily going to welcome with open arms the UK trying to muscle in, in any case.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    GeoffM said:

    As a PB Tory with wet leanings - this now is our 'suck it up' period.

    Some might say it was overdue I guess given the decade or so we've had with the tide behind us... dating back to all the Brown is crap threads.

    Indeed.

    I still chuckle when IOS complained about the number of Ed is crap threads I wrote, I was right then, and I'm right now, modesty prevents me from pointing out that I was saying Theresa May is crap long before it was fashionable.
    I don't recall - did IOS complain because he thought they were simply wrong, or because they became tediously monotonous, repetitive and single-toned?
    All of the above.

    As I said then, the polling, the plotting by the party to topple the crap leader, and the mood music all pointed one way.

    To not do threads on Theresa May and her crapness would be the equivalent of burying your head in the sand.
    Just mix it up a bit.

    Say 49% on May is crap and 49% on longer horizon pieces - how could Brexit negotiations develop? What could be the endgame? Will the EU extend? Is WTO really that bad? PB is an incredible resource with some very talented people writing for it. Make better use of them

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,764
    Essexit said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Eagles,

    Perhaps Mrs May felt obliged to call a GE, because she needed a bigger majority? Why? Because of the Tory 'bastards' who wouldn't accept the result of a democratic referendum.

    I call them the Osborne Tendency. The mirror is over there (imagine a big smiley face here).

    Gideon - Destroyer of the Conservative party.

    That's why the Tories went from 198 MPs to 331 MPs on George's watch eh?
    May sacked Osborne. Big mistake. Massive.
    Indeed, even Tory leavers on here like DavidL and Max think it was a huge mistake, not just me.
    Its magnitude is matched only by how totally and utterly unnecessary it was. Madness.

    Why sack your only proven election winner in a generation. The only one the opposition fear.
    Because he's a total and utter See You Next Tuesday.
    No more than many others. But he was yours. Now he isn't.

    May forgot LBJs lesson about tent pissers.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    However, EFTA membership would also pose some challenges for the UK. Acceding to the EFTA Convention entails a commitment to establish the free movement of persons with the other EFTA countries. Given the anti-free movement sentiments underpinning the ‘leave’ vote in the 2016 referendum, this is likely to attract popular opposition and be resisted by the UK government.
    Is it free movement as per the EU or free movement of labour?

    Also wealth / educational background of EFTA members closer to UK

    Won't be a major issue I suspect. How many Scandinavian or Swiss Big Issue salesmen are there?
    Aren't all the EFTA members in the Schengen Area, though? Could we be in EFTA but not in Schengen?
    No - certainly not Switzerland and Iceland. Don't know about Norway and lichenstein (have never been able to spell it)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    The only way to stop Corbyn is for the Tories to get a new leader who is seen to be more pro Remain than Corbyn. Though it might not be too popular with the crusty wing of the Tory Party it would remove a large swathe of Corbyn supporters who are only there because he seems less Brexity than May.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,405
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    However, EFTA membership would also pose some challenges for the UK. Acceding to the EFTA Convention entails a commitment to establish the free movement of persons with the other EFTA countries. Given the anti-free movement sentiments underpinning the ‘leave’ vote in the 2016 referendum, this is likely to attract popular opposition and be resisted by the UK government.
    Is it free movement as per the EU or free movement of labour?

    Also wealth / educational background of EFTA members closer to UK

    Won't be a major issue I suspect. How many Scandinavian or Swiss Big Issue salesmen are there?
    Aren't all the EFTA members in the Schengen Area, though? Could we be in EFTA but not in Schengen?
    No - certainly not Switzerland and Iceland. Don't know about Norway and lichenstein (have never been able to spell it)
    All those countries are in Schengen
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    FF43 said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    However, EFTA membership would also pose some challenges for the UK. Acceding to the EFTA Convention entails a commitment to establish the free movement of persons with the other EFTA countries. Given the anti-free movement sentiments underpinning the ‘leave’ vote in the 2016 referendum, this is likely to attract popular opposition and be resisted by the UK government.
    Is it free movement as per the EU or free movement of labour?

    Also wealth / educational background of EFTA members closer to UK

    Won't be a major issue I suspect. How many Scandinavian or Swiss Big Issue salesmen are there?
    Possibly relevant all current members of EFTA are also members of Schengen.
    Just checked: but I thought immigration was an area of disputes with Switzerland and the EU?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    Ishmael_Z said:

    JackW said:

    GeoffM said:

    MattW said:

    Not particuarly convinced that a manifesto promising unicorns to all and sundry paid for out of the Leprechaun's pot of gold is useful as a source suggestions, but if all those voters fell for it, perhaps they will fall for the stunt too.

    You are confusing Labour's costed manifesto with the Conservatives' number-free wishlist that was presumably intended to hide the tax rises the Chancellor can't now make anyway.
    You've accidentally typed "Labour" and "Conservative" in opposite places there.
    TSE's elusive tome on "Great AV Threads I Have Known"
    Along with 'Fashion Tips for the Gentleman Lawyer'.....
    I did that thread.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/09/11/some-fashion-advice-for-jeremy-corbyn/
    I'm not sure Mr Corbyn quite falls into either category - oh, ok 'gentleman' because it would annoy him....
    I'm in Westminster today and tomorrow, if I see Corbyn, I'll make sure to call him a gentleman purely for his reaction.
    His parents sent him from the family home Yew Tree Manor to Castle House Preparatory School. He's a gent for sure, which is why he gets on so well with all those fecking Wykehamistas.

    edit: Wykehamistas was a typo, but works well as a descriptor for Seumas Milne.
    It works extremely well as a descriptor for Seumas Milne.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Jonathan, could argue whether the sacking or the manner of it was the mistake (or the worse mistake, if you believe both to be wrong).

    Osborne was fully aware that he had to leave the cabinet given the role he played in the referendum, he knew he had to take one for the good of the party.

    If May had any class she would have allowed him to resign.
    May fired Osborne and Gove on her first day, the subsequent behaviour of both men says a lot about them as people - which is why one of them is now back in the Cabinet, and the other isn't.
    I imagine Osborne isn't back in Cabinet now because he isn't an MP anymore rather than because of some deep rooted character defect.

    And what in particular about his conduct as a back bench MP did you find so objectionable - when did he vote against May?
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171

    On topic, it's looking as though May will hang on - we're now just one week to recess, and I can't see an insurrection happening during the summer break. The last danger point is probably when people gather for the Tory conference, but I can't see rebels wanting to wreck that. Otherwise, the Tories look set to try to hang on to the end of Brexit.

    That does cast a sidelight on the other point in thethread. Will May want an extension past the next election.

    Labour's objective, meanwhile, is not necessarily to seize responsibility for Brexit and the oncoming ecenomic mess, although we'll obviously take an opportunity if it arises. It's to be a strong and stable government in waiting if things fall apart, so the priority is to be confident without being shrill.

    There is nothing strong or stable about what Corbyn's Labour has to offer.

    What we'll get is economic vandalism.

    The Brexiteers are intent on delivering that anyway. This is the Tory problem. Their reputation for economic competence has been shot to pieces.

    Record employment? Very low unemployment? I wonder how many other European Countries would like a Government with such economic incompetence.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    edited July 2017
    Charles said:

    GeoffM said:

    As a PB Tory with wet leanings - this now is our 'suck it up' period.

    Some might say it was overdue I guess given the decade or so we've had with the tide behind us... dating back to all the Brown is crap threads.

    Indeed.

    I still chuckle when IOS complained about the number of Ed is crap threads I wrote, I was right then, and I'm right now, modesty prevents me from pointing out that I was saying Theresa May is crap long before it was fashionable.
    I don't recall - did IOS complain because he thought they were simply wrong, or because they became tediously monotonous, repetitive and single-toned?
    All of the above.

    As I said then, the polling, the plotting by the party to topple the crap leader, and the mood music all pointed one way.

    To not do threads on Theresa May and her crapness would be the equivalent of burying your head in the sand.
    Just mix it up a bit.

    Say 49% on May is crap and 49% on longer horizon pieces - how could Brexit negotiations develop? What could be the endgame? Will the EU extend? Is WTO really that bad? PB is an incredible resource with some very talented people writing for it. Make better use of them

    We do, people like David Herdson, Alastair Meeks, and Ms Cyclefree et al do write fantastic quality pieces.

    Whenever they submit they get published PDQ.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,257
    I went to an interesting talk last night by David Starkey on "Henry VIII - the first Brexiteer?" Entertaining and (as you might expect) well informed. He made a good case for the Catholic church of Henry's time and the EU of ours being very similar beasts. With Juncker as maybe a Borgia Pope.

    He was utterly damning of the quality of politicians and the political advisor class today versus those advising Henry VIII. He can't see how Brexit can be delivered. He's on tour I believe - well worth catching.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,533
    Roger said:

    The only way to stop Corbyn is for the Tories to get a new leader who is seen to be more pro Remain than Corbyn. Though it might not be too popular with the crusty wing of the Tory Party it would remove a large swathe of Corbyn supporters who are only there because he seems less Brexity than May.

    Way more needs to be done than that. Some serious thought needs to be done on countering the Labour offer:

    HE fees for example - scrap or reform. If the latter then need to educate the public why Lab's solution will just end up impoverishing HE and with fewer students.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    I've been told to apply for this job.

    Apparently I'm perfect for it, with my ability for memorable phrases.

    https://www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk/csr/jobs.cgi?owner=5070000&ownertype=fair&jcode=1549051&posting_code=0&language=
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,533

    I went to an interesting talk last night by David Starkey on "Henry VIII - the first Brexiteer?" Entertaining and (as you might expect) well informed. He made a good case for the Catholic church of Henry's time and the EU of ours being very similar beasts. With Juncker as maybe a Borgia Pope.

    He was utterly damning of the quality of politicians and the political advisor class today versus those advising Henry VIII. He can't see how Brexit can be delivered. He's on tour I believe - well worth catching.

    Another member of the Brexit will not happen club? We are growing in number.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345

    I went to an interesting talk last night by David Starkey on "Henry VIII - the first Brexiteer?" Entertaining and (as you might expect) well informed. He made a good case for the Catholic church of Henry's time and the EU of ours being very similar beasts. With Juncker as maybe a Borgia Pope.

    He was utterly damning of the quality of politicians and the political advisor class today versus those advising Henry VIII. He can't see how Brexit can be delivered. He's on tour I believe - well worth catching.

    Henry VIII's advisers were only good because they knew if they failed they were likely to be executed!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111

    I went to an interesting talk last night by David Starkey on "Henry VIII - the first Brexiteer?" Entertaining and (as you might expect) well informed. He made a good case for the Catholic church of Henry's time and the EU of ours being very similar beasts. With Juncker as maybe a Borgia Pope.

    He was utterly damning of the quality of politicians and the political advisor class today versus those advising Henry VIII. He can't see how Brexit can be delivered. He's on tour I believe - well worth catching.

    The penalties at that time were a good incentive to try really really hard not to mess up.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I thought the fact that the Labour manifesto was costed and that the Tory one wasn't was uncontentious common knowledge.

    The first figure to come out of Labour's "fully costed" manifesto is out by a factor of 10
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    currystar said:

    On topic, it's looking as though May will hang on - we're now just one week to recess, and I can't see an insurrection happening during the summer break. The last danger point is probably when people gather for the Tory conference, but I can't see rebels wanting to wreck that. Otherwise, the Tories look set to try to hang on to the end of Brexit.

    That does cast a sidelight on the other point in thethread. Will May want an extension past the next election.

    Labour's objective, meanwhile, is not necessarily to seize responsibility for Brexit and the oncoming ecenomic mess, although we'll obviously take an opportunity if it arises. It's to be a strong and stable government in waiting if things fall apart, so the priority is to be confident without being shrill.

    There is nothing strong or stable about what Corbyn's Labour has to offer.

    What we'll get is economic vandalism.

    The Brexiteers are intent on delivering that anyway. This is the Tory problem. Their reputation for economic competence has been shot to pieces.

    Record employment? Very low unemployment? I wonder how many other European Countries would like a Government with such economic incompetence.
    Low pay, Zero Hour Contracts, Self Employment cons, no pay rises for the past 10 years or only 1% (please don't try the seniority crap, firms are not increasing tech spending to increase productivity when workers are so cheap) - Austerity is a political choice, not one that is economically sensible.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Ishmael_Z said:

    BBC - Trump 'didn't know about son's Russia meeting'. I think the game plan is now clear. Jr. is the fall guy, Sr pardons him as final act in 3 years time.

    That relies on Donald Sr not falling in the next 3 weeks years
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Charles said:

    nichomar said:

    What caused yesterdays drop in pound to a six month low against the euro?

    As I have discussed several times in last few months down at the coal face there is a real problem with the UK economy. High quality investment is sparse and the country is being overrun with sandwich shops etc. Was speaking with ex colleague who is in the venture capital industry last week. The main game in town is buying up the last valuable assets left in the country and selling them off to the foreigners. I had 2 offers for my company in the last couple of weeks.
    Sounds about right. We need a judge-led enquiry into why British entrepreneurs tend to sell out to foreigners rather than let their companies grow, and also take a closer look at what the Americans do with hidden subsidies and protectionism to nurture their industries.
    Why the judge? Where there are issues of law or justice fine. Where it's a commission there's no need.

    The fact you are calling for a "judge led enquiry" makes me think it's s political game not a serious demand
    The judge-led enquiry part was a joke based on a cliche. How soon is Ed Miliband forgotten? It should have been a royal commission. Or a couple of SpAds swapping ideas in a pub.

    We need to do something about growing British companies and not selling them off abroad. We should also, perhaps separately, look at how the Americans use protectionism and subsidies to grow their companies.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    I went to an interesting talk last night by David Starkey on "Henry VIII - the first Brexiteer?" Entertaining and (as you might expect) well informed. He made a good case for the Catholic church of Henry's time and the EU of ours being very similar beasts. With Juncker as maybe a Borgia Pope.

    He was utterly damning of the quality of politicians and the political advisor class today versus those advising Henry VIII. He can't see how Brexit can be delivered. He's on tour I believe - well worth catching.

    The schlerotic effect of the Catholic hegemony was evident from the smallest monastic house to the largest Royal Court.

    E.g. The burden of centuries of daily masses for the reposing souls of those who had died wealthy took its toll. Administrators became very pro Reformation because it allowed the sweeping away of old commitments.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. Sandpit, perhaps, but the others have managed it.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    GeoffM said:

    As a PB Tory with wet leanings - this now is our 'suck it up' period.

    Some might say it was overdue I guess given the decade or so we've had with the tide behind us... dating back to all the Brown is crap threads.

    Indeed.

    I still chuckle when IOS complained about the number of Ed is crap threads I wrote, I was right then, and I'm right now, modesty prevents me from pointing out that I was saying Theresa May is crap long before it was fashionable.
    I don't recall - did IOS complain because he thought they were simply wrong, or because they became tediously monotonous, repetitive and single-toned?
    All of the above.

    As I said then, the polling, the plotting by the party to topple the crap leader, and the mood music all pointed one way.

    To not do threads on Theresa May and her crapness would be the equivalent of burying your head in the sand.
    Just mix it up a bit.

    Say 49% on May is crap and 49% on longer horizon pieces - how could Brexit negotiations develop? What could be the endgame? Will the EU extend? Is WTO really that bad? PB is an incredible resource with some very talented people writing for it. Make better use of them

    We do, people like David Herdson, Alastair Meeks, and Ms Cyclefree et al do write fantastic quality pieces.

    Whenever they submit they get published PDQ.
    More of that please
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sandpit said:

    May fired Osborne and Gove on her first day, the subsequent behaviour of both men says a lot about them as people - which is why one of them is now back in the Cabinet, and the other isn't.

    Yes, one of them has some dignity, and the other is Gove
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,971

    I've been told to apply for this job.

    Apparently I'm perfect for it, with my ability for memorable phrases.

    https://www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk/csr/jobs.cgi?owner=5070000&ownertype=fair&jcode=1549051&posting_code=0&language=

    The list of required qualities apply equally well to the PM's job. Does May meet any of them ?

    • First-rate (news) judgment under pressure
    • A strong grasp of the wider media and political context in which the Government operates
    • Experience of taking a strategic approach to communications messages and campaigns
    • The risk management and crisis communications skills needed to avoid pitfalls and fight fires.
    • An understanding of, and ideally good experience of, the use of digital media as part of your media
    execution.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062

    I went to an interesting talk last night by David Starkey on "Henry VIII - the first Brexiteer?" Entertaining and (as you might expect) well informed. He made a good case for the Catholic church of Henry's time and the EU of ours being very similar beasts. With Juncker as maybe a Borgia Pope.

    He was utterly damning of the quality of politicians and the political advisor class today versus those advising Henry VIII. He can't see how Brexit can be delivered. He's on tour I believe - well worth catching.

    Matthew Parris on radio yesterday didn't believe Brexit would happen because 'they'd' made an irrecoverable mess of it. He manages to sound so sage and authoritaive I wonder whether he could have risen further as a politician
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    JonathanD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Jonathan, could argue whether the sacking or the manner of it was the mistake (or the worse mistake, if you believe both to be wrong).

    Osborne was fully aware that he had to leave the cabinet given the role he played in the referendum, he knew he had to take one for the good of the party.

    If May had any class she would have allowed him to resign.
    May fired Osborne and Gove on her first day, the subsequent behaviour of both men says a lot about them as people - which is why one of them is now back in the Cabinet, and the other isn't.
    I imagine Osborne isn't back in Cabinet now because he isn't an MP anymore rather than because of some deep rooted character defect.

    And what in particular about his conduct as a back bench MP did you find so objectionable - when did he vote against May?
    Mr @Essexit said it best up thread - the guy's a Class A "See You Next Tuesday".

    Deciding he can't be arsed as an MP is one thing, but then spending a whole election campaign and the immediate aftermath sniping from the sidelines against his own party is unforgivable.

    Contrast with Mr Gove, who after being fired spent a year of penance supporting the government from the back benches and burying the hatchet with the PM. Now he finds his considerable talents around the Cabinet table once more. It's very clear who is the better man.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,342
    edited July 2017

    I thought the fact that the Labour manifesto was costed and that the Tory one wasn't was uncontentious common knowledge.

    No - Corbyn and Co were talking out of their collective bottom.

    While the Tories were *not* talking out of their collective bottom, and rather saying noting at all instead.

    http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2017/05/26/your-guide-to-how-the-ifs-dismantled-the-two-parties-plans

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,405
    Charles said:

    FF43 said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    However, EFTA membership would also pose some challenges for the UK. Acceding to the EFTA Convention entails a commitment to establish the free movement of persons with the other EFTA countries. Given the anti-free movement sentiments underpinning the ‘leave’ vote in the 2016 referendum, this is likely to attract popular opposition and be resisted by the UK government.
    Is it free movement as per the EU or free movement of labour?

    Also wealth / educational background of EFTA members closer to UK

    Won't be a major issue I suspect. How many Scandinavian or Swiss Big Issue salesmen are there?
    Possibly relevant all current members of EFTA are also members of Schengen.
    Just checked: but I thought immigration was an area of disputes with Switzerland and the EU?
    Switzerland had a referendum to allow limits on immigration that would breach their treaties with the EU. The EU imposed limited sanctions. Under a guillotine clause the EU could decide to cancel all the bilateral agreements. The Swiss federal government mostly backed down, although that might be unconstitutional given the referendum result. .
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,971
    Either that, or the local council are operating a very upmarket recycling scheme ?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Tezza has now put those of these clowns back in the cabinet

    https://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/746488316510482433
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sandpit said:

    It's very clear who is the better man.

    Yes, yes it is.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,367
    Mr Eagles,

    The upturn in Tory fortunes was more to do with Labour's problems and Cameron. He and Osborne made a good pair - both posh amateurs. Like any dilettantes, they say the right things, but there's no commitment. When the going gets tough ... eg the day after the referendum, the amateurs f... off.

    May is useless, but she has no intention of f...... off. That's your current problem.

    Here's my shallow advice. When you've no one who's any good, pick the prettiest woman. And at least, make it interesting.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,971
    Scott_P said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    BBC - Trump 'didn't know about son's Russia meeting'. I think the game plan is now clear. Jr. is the fall guy, Sr pardons him as final act in 3 years time.

    That relies on Donald Sr not falling in the next 3 weeks years
    And no other damning evidence coming to light - which seems rather unlikely.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. Eagles, whereas our politicians can end up with lucrative careers even if they fail.

    That, coupled with ridiculously intense media scrutiny of politicians and barely a glance at most policies, must help explain why we aren't better governed.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,257

    I went to an interesting talk last night by David Starkey on "Henry VIII - the first Brexiteer?" Entertaining and (as you might expect) well informed. He made a good case for the Catholic church of Henry's time and the EU of ours being very similar beasts. With Juncker as maybe a Borgia Pope.

    He was utterly damning of the quality of politicians and the political advisor class today versus those advising Henry VIII. He can't see how Brexit can be delivered. He's on tour I believe - well worth catching.

    Henry VIII's advisers were only good because they knew if they failed they were likely to be executed!
    As he commented last night, the number executed in Henry's time was really quite small. It's just that they were really really senior people, killed in really really horrible ways. But he got his way with Parliament, albeit it took four years of building a majority, rather than the two that May has.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Scott_P said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    BBC - Trump 'didn't know about son's Russia meeting'. I think the game plan is now clear. Jr. is the fall guy, Sr pardons him as final act in 3 years time.

    That relies on Donald Sr not falling in the next 3 weeks years
    "as when Ford pardoned Nixon, the pardoned person need not yet have been convicted or even formally charged with a crime." wikip.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520

    I've been told to apply for this job.

    Apparently I'm perfect for it, with my ability for memorable phrases.

    https://www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk/csr/jobs.cgi?owner=5070000&ownertype=fair&jcode=1549051&posting_code=0&language=

    You could start your application by referring to the glaring typo in their advert I guess? ;)

    How many people should have proof read that before it was published, or did they just recycle the ad from last time it was used?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,367
    On the Trumpocalypse, did we ever discover what the damning evidence on Hillary was?

    I think we should be told.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    Sandpit said:

    I've been told to apply for this job.

    Apparently I'm perfect for it, with my ability for memorable phrases.

    https://www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk/csr/jobs.cgi?owner=5070000&ownertype=fair&jcode=1549051&posting_code=0&language=

    You could start your application by referring to the glaring typo in their advert I guess? ;)

    How many people should have proof read that before it was published, or did they just recycle the ad from last time it was used?
    The gender of the PM?

    They know Osborne is going to be PM soon.

    And on that bombshell, I must go.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    edited July 2017
    Sandpit said:

    I've been told to apply for this job.

    Apparently I'm perfect for it, with my ability for memorable phrases.

    https://www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk/csr/jobs.cgi?owner=5070000&ownertype=fair&jcode=1549051&posting_code=0&language=

    You could start your application by referring to the glaring typo in their advert I guess? ;)

    How many people should have proof read that before it was published, or did they just recycle the ad from last time it was used?
    Or are they advertising on behalf of the next PM? :o
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    I think your analysis in the OP is wrong and, if I may say, inconsistent.

    Corbyn's response is humorous but childish. You and all the remainers spent weeks going on about how the Tories should form a cross party group on Brexit. As soon as May suggests it, and Corbyn does not engage but just uses it as an excuse for point scoring, you say it was a great political move.

    I think that many people will actually react very negatively to Corbyn on this. He is pretending to be authentic, now he is just behaving like the politicians he claims to despise.

    Of course, the truth is that it was a good move by May. By asking Corbyn to join, he has two choices - refuse and look churlish or join and reveal the splits in his own party.

    If you were not just banging the anti-May drum you would realise that she has outplayed Corbyn here and the issue of co-operation on Brexit, which of course she never wanted, will quietly die.



    I'm in Westminster today and tomorrow, if I see Corbyn, I'll make sure to call him a gentleman purely for his reaction.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520

    Sandpit said:

    I've been told to apply for this job.

    Apparently I'm perfect for it, with my ability for memorable phrases.

    https://www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk/csr/jobs.cgi?owner=5070000&ownertype=fair&jcode=1549051&posting_code=0&language=

    You could start your application by referring to the glaring typo in their advert I guess? ;)

    How many people should have proof read that before it was published, or did they just recycle the ad from last time it was used?
    The gender of the PM?

    They know Osborne is going to be PM soon.

    And on that bombshell, I must go.
    Ha ha, that's the one. Maybe you should apply!
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,497
    On thread....

    Well it made me laugh, but I can understand the sense of humour failure amongst some posters.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    edited July 2017

    The word is hubris. Spell it out in big capital letters and surround it with flashing lights. The Labour left seriously believes that there were 12.8 million votes for socialism on 8th June and has decided to act accordingly.

    The Corbynistas will overplay their hand and ultimately lose the next election. Front bench spokesmen and women are selected for their left wing credentials and loyalty rather than ability and experience and it shows almost every time one is put in front of the TV camera. McDonnell and Thornberry perform well but beyond that it's a car crash.

    I still wonder to what extent Corbyn is the puppet master or the puppet. I think the real hard liners are lurking in the shadows.

    I've not been convinced enough to rejoin yet but I could however be wrong as I have been about everything over the last couple of years and Corbyn will storm into No 10 next time around!

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,257
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Scott_P said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    BBC - Trump 'didn't know about son's Russia meeting'. I think the game plan is now clear. Jr. is the fall guy, Sr pardons him as final act in 3 years time.

    That relies on Donald Sr not falling in the next 3 weeks years
    "as when Ford pardoned Nixon, the pardoned person need not yet have been convicted or even formally charged with a crime." wikip.
    That's one hell of a Get Out Of Jail card to hold....
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    OchEye said:

    currystar said:

    On topic, it's looking as though May will hang on - we're now just one week to recess, and I can't see an insurrection happening during the summer break. The last danger point is probably when people gather for the Tory conference, but I can't see rebels wanting to wreck that. Otherwise, the Tories look set to try to hang on to the end of Brexit.

    That does cast a sidelight on the other point in thethread. Will May want an extension past the next election.

    Labour's objective, meanwhile, is not necessarily to seize responsibility for Brexit and the oncoming ecenomic mess, although we'll obviously take an opportunity if it arises. It's to be a strong and stable government in waiting if things fall apart, so the priority is to be confident without being shrill.

    There is nothing strong or stable about what Corbyn's Labour has to offer.

    What we'll get is economic vandalism.

    The Brexiteers are intent on delivering that anyway. This is the Tory problem. Their reputation for economic competence has been shot to pieces.

    Record employment? Very low unemployment? I wonder how many other European Countries would like a Government with such economic incompetence.
    Low pay, Zero Hour Contracts, Self Employment cons, no pay rises for the past 10 years or only 1% (please don't try the seniority crap, firms are not increasing tech spending to increase productivity when workers are so cheap) - Austerity is a political choice, not one that is economically sensible.
    What utter nosense, drive round this Country and look at all the money that is being spent. Then look at Italy, Greece etc. To claim that this Country is going through austerity is complete dribble. Go to any Town Centre on a weekend and look at the number of young people paying £5 per pint. We currently have 6 vacancies for electricans paying £17 per hour and we cannot fill them. We are currently turning away work as we are just too busy. The contrast to 2008/2009 is incredible. The country is booming despite all the nonsense that is written on here.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    TOPPING said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    JackW said:

    GeoffM said:

    MattW said:

    Not particuarly convinced that a manifesto promising unicorns to all and sundry paid for out of the Leprechaun's pot of gold is useful as a source suggestions, but if all those voters fell for it, perhaps they will fall for the stunt too.

    You are confusing Labour's costed manifesto with the Conservatives' number-free wishlist that was presumably intended to hide the tax rises the Chancellor can't now make anyway.
    You've accidentally typed "Labour" and "Conservative" in opposite places there.
    TSE's elusive tome on "Great AV Threads I Have Known"
    Along with 'Fashion Tips for the Gentleman Lawyer'.....
    I did that thread.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/09/11/some-fashion-advice-for-jeremy-corbyn/
    I'm not sure Mr Corbyn quite falls into either category - oh, ok 'gentleman' because it would annoy him....
    I'm in Westminster today and tomorrow, if I see Corbyn, I'll make sure to call him a gentleman purely for his reaction.
    His parents sent him from the family home Yew Tree Manor to Castle House Preparatory School. He's a gent for sure, which is why he gets on so well with all those fecking Wykehamistas.

    edit: Wykehamistas was a typo, but works well as a descriptor for Seumas Milne.
    It works extremely well as a descriptor for Seumas Milne.
    What do they say about when the spokesman becomes the story..?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/11/friends-seumas-milne-insist-not-willing-participant-kiss-blonde/
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062

    On thread....

    Well it made me laugh, but I can understand the sense of humour failure amongst some posters.

    Well try this one....The three brexiteers

    http://www.newstatesman.com/sites/default/files/styles/nodeimage/public/Longreads_2016/09/2016_36_brexiteers_for_feature.jpg?itok=fuh21W4U
  • Roger said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Yesterday, there was a discussion about what might halt Brexit. I see three things that could delay it, potentially indefinitely. In ascending order of probability:

    1. An external security threat so serious that Brexit is put on hold. So, were Russia to invade the Baltics (for example), I think we would find ourselves more concerned with the security of Europe (in general, rather than the EU in particular), and Article 50 would be postponed. This would be akin to the First World War interrupting Irish independence. I'd give this a low probability (say 0.5%).

    2. A very serious recession that resulted in sharply rising unemployment and which causes Brexit to become suddenly very unpopular. I would add that Brexit would probably not be the cause of the recession (that would be the fundamentally unbalanced UK economy), but it would likely get the blame. I would assign this a medium probability (5%).

    3. Most likely is that Theresa May's government is brought down over the inability to pass a Brexit Bill. (Now, in theory this causes us to crash out to WTO. In reality, I think it would cause the EU to agree to an extension while the UK dithered.) Why would the government be unable to pass a Brexit Bill? Because Mr Corbyn would see it as an opportunity to bring down the government, the DUP would demand a frictionless border with the Republic, and there are enough awkward Conservative Party MPs. I would rate this as an approximately 15% possibility.

    There is some overlap between 2 and 3, so I estimate the probability that the UK does not exit in April 2019 (or shortly thereafter) is between 15 and 20%.

    Since we're talking delaying not just halting, I think there's also a non-trivial probability that both sides will realise they genuinely need more time to work out the details. I mean, everybody knows the deadline is too tight, no?

    I know it needs unaninimity on the EU side and they've been firm on this to date, but it's unusual for the EU to see a can and not kick it.
    Macron making concerted effort to get the £70 billion financial services business from London in a speech yesterday. As someone from the financial services industry he believes Paris are in an ideal position.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/player/bbc_radio_fourfm
    In his dreams.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,941
    Scott_P said:

    I thought the fact that the Labour manifesto was costed and that the Tory one wasn't was uncontentious common knowledge.

    The first figure to come out of Labour's "fully costed" manifesto is out by a factor of 10
    Trouble is you can't make any sort of judgement on an uncosted manifesto.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,971
    Sandpit said:

    JonathanD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Jonathan, could argue whether the sacking or the manner of it was the mistake (or the worse mistake, if you believe both to be wrong).

    Osborne was fully aware that he had to leave the cabinet given the role he played in the referendum, he knew he had to take one for the good of the party.

    If May had any class she would have allowed him to resign.
    May fired Osborne and Gove on her first day, the subsequent behaviour of both men says a lot about them as people - which is why one of them is now back in the Cabinet, and the other isn't.
    I imagine Osborne isn't back in Cabinet now because he isn't an MP anymore rather than because of some deep rooted character defect.

    And what in particular about his conduct as a back bench MP did you find so objectionable - when did he vote against May?
    Mr @Essexit said it best up thread - the guy's a Class A "See You Next Tuesday".

    Deciding he can't be arsed as an MP is one thing, but then spending a whole election campaign and the immediate aftermath sniping from the sidelines against his own party is unforgivable.
    Hardly.
    As a newspaper editor he'd be failing in his duty not to accurately report disasters.

    Unless you think the role of the press is to back the Tory party come what may... ?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,766
    Corbyn believes he can get away with anything.

    He probably can.

    So glad I left.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,229
    UK...laughing stock....shambles....

    https://twitter.com/ONS/status/885053759910531074
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Roger said:

    On thread....

    Well it made me laugh, but I can understand the sense of humour failure amongst some posters.

    Well try this one....The three brexiteers

    http://www.newstatesman.com/sites/default/files/styles/nodeimage/public/Longreads_2016/09/2016_36_brexiteers_for_feature.jpg?itok=fuh21W4U
    All for one and everyone for himself.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    Jonathan said:

    Essexit said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Eagles,

    Perhaps Mrs May felt obliged to call a GE, because she needed a bigger majority? Why? Because of the Tory 'bastards' who wouldn't accept the result of a democratic referendum.

    I call them the Osborne Tendency. The mirror is over there (imagine a big smiley face here).

    Gideon - Destroyer of the Conservative party.

    That's why the Tories went from 198 MPs to 331 MPs on George's watch eh?
    May sacked Osborne. Big mistake. Massive.
    Indeed, even Tory leavers on here like DavidL and Max think it was a huge mistake, not just me.
    Its magnitude is matched only by how totally and utterly unnecessary it was. Madness.

    Why sack your only proven election winner in a generation. The only one the opposition fear.
    Because he's a total and utter See You Next Tuesday.
    No more than many others. But he was yours. Now he isn't.

    May forgot LBJs lesson about tent pissers.
    'If you sit by the river long enough the body of your enemy will come floating by' (Spanish proverb)

    ....Osborne didn't even have time to get his fishing rod out
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    A new record employment rate again - tantalisingly close to 75%. And the lowest unemployment rate since 1975.

    Must be all those immigrants taking the jobs.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,405

    I went to an interesting talk last night by David Starkey on "Henry VIII - the first Brexiteer?" Entertaining and (as you might expect) well informed. He made a good case for the Catholic church of Henry's time and the EU of ours being very similar beasts. With Juncker as maybe a Borgia Pope.

    He was utterly damning of the quality of politicians and the political advisor class today versus those advising Henry VIII. He can't see how Brexit can be delivered. He's on tour I believe - well worth catching.

    The comparison between the late mediaeval Catholic church and the EU of today was one of SeanT's better metaphors. I don't however see any Martin Luthers or attempts at a coherent or practical Reformation philosophy
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Scott_P said:
    An ex-MEP who no one's heard of? Whatever.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. Sandpit, reminds me of when Odysseus was held prisoner by the goddess Calypso.

    "I was held on the island and made love to her for months. Unwillingly, of course."
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    Roger said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Yesterday, there was a discussion about what might halt Brexit. I see three things that could delay it, potentially indefinitely. In ascending order of probability:

    1. An external security threat so serious that Brexit is put on hold. So, were Russia to invade the Baltics (for example), I think we would find ourselves more concerned with the security of Europe (in general, rather than the EU in particular), and Article 50 would be postponed. This would be akin to the First World War interrupting Irish independence. I'd give this a low probability (say 0.5%).

    2. A very serious recession that resulted in sharply rising unemployment and which causes Brexit to become suddenly very unpopular. I would add that Brexit would probably not be the cause of the recession (that would be the fundamentally unbalanced UK economy), but it would likely get the blame. I would assign this a medium probability (5%).

    3. Most likely is that Theresa May's government is brought down over the inability to pass a Brexit Bill. (Now, in theory this causes us to crash out to WTO. In reality, I think it would cause the EU to agree to an extension while the UK dithered.) Why would the government be unable to pass a Brexit Bill? Because Mr Corbyn would see it as an opportunity to bring down the government, the DUP would demand a frictionless border with the Republic, and there are enough awkward Conservative Party MPs. I would rate this as an approximately 15% possibility.

    There is some overlap between 2 and 3, so I estimate the probability that the UK does not exit in April 2019 (or shortly thereafter) is between 15 and 20%.

    Since we're talking delaying not just halting, I think there's also a non-trivial probability that both sides will realise they genuinely need more time to work out the details. I mean, everybody knows the deadline is too tight, no?

    I know it needs unaninimity on the EU side and they've been firm on this to date, but it's unusual for the EU to see a can and not kick it.
    Macron making concerted effort to get the £70 billion financial services business from London in a speech yesterday. As someone from the financial services industry he believes Paris are in an ideal position.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/player/bbc_radio_fourfm
    In his dreams.
    His dreams seem to keep coming true !
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    I've been told to apply for this job.

    Apparently I'm perfect for it, with my ability for memorable phrases.

    https://www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk/csr/jobs.cgi?owner=5070000&ownertype=fair&jcode=1549051&posting_code=0&language=

    You could start your application by referring to the glaring typo in their advert I guess? ;)

    How many people should have proof read that before it was published, or did they just recycle the ad from last time it was used?
    Or are they advertising on behalf of the next PM? :o
    As well as getting Amber Rudd's sex wrong, and omitting the OBE for six months' work, what is the nationality statement for when two paragraphs later we read that only UK nationals can apply?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111



    I think that many people will actually react very negatively to Corbyn on this. He is pretending to be authentic, now he is just behaving like the politicians he claims to despise.



    I'm in Westminster today and tomorrow, if I see Corbyn, I'll make sure to call him a gentleman purely for his reaction.

    That I think is the key issue - he is playing the kind of games he set himself up to oppose.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,229
    edited July 2017
    Dot Commons:

    George Osborne's historic affiliations with the Conservative party have not always been apparent since he stood down as an MP.

    At times, it has seemed as if he was using his new job as editor of the Evening Standard to wage a personal vendetta against Theresa May's and her government.

    Barely a day goes by when the paper's front page - or its leader column - does not contain some direct attack on the Prime Minister and her policies.

    And there was more than a hint of schadenfreude when, barely 48 hours after the election, the former Chancellor popped up on the Andrew Marr Show to describe Mrs May as "a dead woman walking".

    PoliticsHome threw another grenade into the story two weeks ago by revealing that Mr Osborne's 16-year-old son, Luke, had canvassed for none other than Vince Cable during the election.

    Now the Lib Dem grandee, who is set to be crowned the party's leader within weeks has raised another increasing possibility - did his former Cabinet colleague and fellow arch-Remainer vote Lib Dem on 8 June?


    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/george-osborne/dot-commons-diary/87445/vince-cable
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171

    UK...laughing stock....shambles....

    https://twitter.com/ONS/status/885053759910531074

    Economic incompetence!!!! Some people on here really need to look at themselves in what they write.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    JonathanD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Jonathan, could argue whether the sacking or the manner of it was the mistake (or the worse mistake, if you believe both to be wrong).

    Osborne was fully aware that he had to leave the cabinet given the role he played in the referendum, he knew he had to take one for the good of the party.

    If May had any class she would have allowed him to resign.
    May fired Osborne and Gove on her first day, the subsequent behaviour of both men says a lot about them as people - which is why one of them is now back in the Cabinet, and the other isn't.
    I imagine Osborne isn't back in Cabinet now because he isn't an MP anymore rather than because of some deep rooted character defect.

    And what in particular about his conduct as a back bench MP did you find so objectionable - when did he vote against May?
    Mr @Essexit said it best up thread - the guy's a Class A "See You Next Tuesday".

    Deciding he can't be arsed as an MP is one thing, but then spending a whole election campaign and the immediate aftermath sniping from the sidelines against his own party is unforgivable.
    Hardly.
    As a newspaper editor he'd be failing in his duty not to accurately report disasters.

    Unless you think the role of the press is to back the Tory party come what may... ?
    As a newspaper editor he can of course say what he wants and back who he wants.

    Doesn't mean that his former colleagues in Parliament can think of his actions (and especially the way he has gone about them) as unhelpful at best, traitorous at worst and most certainly a contributing factor to the loss of majority in the election just gone.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191

    UK...laughing stock....shambles....

    https://twitter.com/ONS/status/885053759910531074

    why on earth they didn't hammer that side of things in the election ...

    sigh

    anyway, May asking for help from the other parties? absolute face palm and asking for this sort of stunt.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,971

    Corbyn believes he can get away with anything.

    He probably can.

    So glad I left.

    The "Jeremy doesn't endorse' line reminds me of how Trump dealt with white supremacists during the presidential election.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/11/jeremy-corbyn-pictured-enjoying-pizza-controversial-pro-assad/
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    Must be all those evil zero hour contracts. Oh, hang on, you mean that having a flexible labour market actually increases employment?

    A new record employment rate again - tantalisingly close to 75%. And the lowest unemployment rate since 1975.

    Must be all those immigrants taking the jobs.

  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    TOPPING said:



    I think that many people will actually react very negatively to Corbyn on this. He is pretending to be authentic, now he is just behaving like the politicians he claims to despise.



    I'm in Westminster today and tomorrow, if I see Corbyn, I'll make sure to call him a gentleman purely for his reaction.

    That I think is the key issue - he is playing the kind of games he set himself up to oppose.
    That only works if May comes across as authentic in her offer. Which she absolutely doesn't, she comes across as desperate.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    UK...laughing stock....shambles....

    https://twitter.com/ONS/status/885053759910531074

    why on earth they didn't hammer that side of things in the election ...

    sigh

    anyway, May asking for help from the other parties? absolute face palm and asking for this sort of stunt.
    Partly because without the small print, it looks like they are saying there is 25 per cent unemployment but mainly because who are they fooling? If you are on a sweet £87,500 gig as the PM's deputy spokesperson or if you are on a fake self-employment zero hours contract as a delivery driver, you know. Voters can tell if they are better or worse off.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. L, an individual cannot look at their own situation and from that reasonably extrapolate the employment statistics for a nation of 65 million people.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,971

    Roger said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Yesterday, there was a discussion about what might halt Brexit. I see three things that could delay it, potentially indefinitely. In ascending order of probability:

    1. An external security threat so serious that Brexit is put on hold. So, were Russia to invade the Baltics (for example), I think we would find ourselves more concerned with the security of Europe (in general, rather than the EU in particular), and Article 50 would be postponed. This would be akin to the First World War interrupting Irish independence. I'd give this a low probability (say 0.5%).

    2. A very serious recession that resulted in sharply rising unemployment and which causes Brexit to become suddenly very unpopular. I would add that Brexit would probably not be the cause of the recession (that would be the fundamentally unbalanced UK economy), but it would likely get the blame. I would assign this a medium probability (5%).

    3. Most likely is that Theresa May's government is brought down over the inability to pass a Brexit Bill. (Now, in theory this causes us to crash out to WTO. In reality, I think it would cause the EU to agree to an extension while the UK dithered.) Why would the government be unable to pass a Brexit Bill? Because Mr Corbyn would see it as an opportunity to bring down the government, the DUP would demand a frictionless border with the Republic, and there are enough awkward Conservative Party MPs. I would rate this as an approximately 15% possibility.

    There is some overlap between 2 and 3, so I estimate the probability that the UK does not exit in April 2019 (or shortly thereafter) is between 15 and 20%.

    Since we're talking delaying not just halting, I think there's also a non-trivial probability that both sides will realise they genuinely need more time to work out the details. I mean, everybody knows the deadline is too tight, no?

    I know it needs unaninimity on the EU side and they've been firm on this to date, but it's unusual for the EU to see a can and not kick it.
    Macron making concerted effort to get the £70 billion financial services business from London in a speech yesterday. As someone from the financial services industry he believes Paris are in an ideal position.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/player/bbc_radio_fourfm
    In his dreams.
    Quite.

    They're all going to Dublin, Frankfurt and Luxembourg...
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/03/jp-morgan-jobs-uk-brexit-dublin-frankfurt-luxembourg
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Not for the first time, Theresa May has been too pedestrian. It's often better to do the wrong thing quickly than the right thing slowly. If she had expressed this sentiment in her acceptance speech after the election, Jeremy Corbyn's riposte would have looked cheap in the face of gracefulness. Now it looks like a funny response to a too-obviously calculated gambit.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,971
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    JonathanD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. Jonathan, could argue whether the sacking or the manner of it was the mistake (or the worse mistake, if you believe both to be wrong).

    Osborne was fully aware that he had to leave the cabinet given the role he played in the referendum, he knew he had to take one for the good of the party.

    If May had any class she would have allowed him to resign.
    May fired Osborne and Gove on her first day, the subsequent behaviour of both men says a lot about them as people - which is why one of them is now back in the Cabinet, and the other isn't.
    I imagine Osborne isn't back in Cabinet now because he isn't an MP anymore rather than because of some deep rooted character defect.

    And what in particular about his conduct as a back bench MP did you find so objectionable - when did he vote against May?
    Mr @Essexit said it best up thread - the guy's a Class A "See You Next Tuesday".

    Deciding he can't be arsed as an MP is one thing, but then spending a whole election campaign and the immediate aftermath sniping from the sidelines against his own party is unforgivable.
    Hardly.
    As a newspaper editor he'd be failing in his duty not to accurately report disasters.

    Unless you think the role of the press is to back the Tory party come what may... ?
    As a newspaper editor he can of course say what he wants and back who he wants.

    Doesn't mean that his former colleagues in Parliament can think of his actions (and especially the way he has gone about them) as unhelpful at best, traitorous at worst and most certainly a contributing factor to the loss of majority in the election just gone.
    If the Tories think their election problems are down to Osbourne's editorials, they are in a worse state than I thought.
This discussion has been closed.