politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn is a survivor: back him to last until 2019 at least

rcs1000 said:

@Charles and @HYUFD, my understanding is that treaties requires the assent of two thirds of the Senate,

I think that is correct but with only 1/3 of the Senate up next November the midterms will not make much difference either way

Thinking more about the proposed US-UK FTA, the biggest positive about it is that (finally) the UK government is beginning to get real about establishing other trading relationships.

We voted more than a year ago to leave the EU, and it feels like - until today - we have made absolutely no progress towards improving our relations with other countries, and even beginning to replace the agreements the EU had.

Now, we're a long way away from being able to say that we have a comprehensive set of agreements with other countries on trade standards and the like. But we have at least taken the first few steps.

For what it's worth, I think the US is a difficult country to come to an agreement with, especially given the proposed BTA. Were I in Dr Fox's shoes, I would be looking first to make sure I had agreements in place with the EFTA countries, Canada, Israel, South Korea and those places that already have deals in place with the EU. And I would be looking to simply bring treaties across, as much as possible, with a simple "search and replace" (yes, I know it won't be that simple, but others with to minimise disruption too.)

Even if deals had been only agreed, rather than signed, this would allow the government to put its stake in the ground and demonstrate some progress and a sense of purpose.

Still, as I said, at least we're moving (slowly) in the right direction.

Richard_Tyndall said:

OldKingCole said:

GIN1138 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

malcolmg said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Morning folks.

Not read the comments yet but I am amazed at how small 'c' conservative David is being in the thread header. I really can't see of any way barring incapacity or a black swan that Corbyn will not fight the next election. Even if his poll ratings plummet he and his supporters will be able to point to the polls before 2017 GE and then show how he performed far in excess of what they predicted. He has the support base at the grass roots and he has control of the party hierarchy.

I think he is as certain as any politician possibly could be to be fighting the next GE.

morning Richard, have you had all clear yet

Unfortunately not. In the words of Emperor Hirohito, the situation has developed not necessarily to my advantage. Now on the "2 week wait" for some rather more personal inspections.

I find myself surprisingly calm about it. There is absolutely nothing I can do except go through the process and see how the dice roll so I see no point in getting in a state about it. I am still hoping that it will turn out to be something minor but if not I will deal with it as it comes. To be honest it is not quite the reaction I expected to have.

Hope everything works out OK.

I went through it a few years ago. The worst thing is the waiting around for appointments, tests and results.

In the end it turned out I didn't have the "C" but I did have to receive treatment to make sure the lesion didn't develop into the "C". That was four years ago and so far all has been well.

Main advice I can give you is whatever you do, no matter what the temptation is, do not, under no circumstances seek out the advice of Dr Google.

Be advised by your doctors and come to PB whenever your tempted to have a Google.

Hope it turns out to be something entirely benign (mostly it often is)

Keep us informed.

Good luck.

Had one bout with The Big C 6 years ago, was operated on and, aftrer five years of surveillance, had a ‘clearance’ letter last May. A month later my GP said that she thought I might well have it somewhere else.. And, after tests and explorations, one of which went very wrong, yes I have. So I’m about to start nine weeks of radiotherapy. However the consulatnt says my chances of seeing my nineties will be significantly enhanced, so hey ho, off we go.

So, whatever you do, Mr T, stay positive. Waiting is difficult but the NHS is very good, and, IME, the staff very supportive and encouraging.

Cheers Mr Cole. Hope all goes well for you and definitely hope we are both still here debating in 20 years time.

+2

All the best to Richard by the way. And OKC. It's scary how much we take our health for granted until we can't.

DavidL said:

All the best to Richard by the way. And OKC. It's scary how much we take our health for granted until we can't.

+1

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

Thinking more about the proposed US-UK FTA, the biggest positive about it is that (finally) the UK government is beginning to get real about establishing other trading relationships.

We voted more than a year ago to leave the EU, and it feels like - until today - we have made absolutely no progress towards improving our relations with other countries, and even beginning to replace the agreements the EU had.

Now, we're a long way away from being able to say that we have a comprehensive set of agreements with other countries on trade standards and the like. But we have at least taken the first few steps.

For what it's worth, I think the US is a difficult country to come to an agreement with, especially given the proposed BTA. Were I in Dr Fox's shoes, I would be looking first to make sure I had agreements in place with the EFTA countries, Canada, Israel, South Korea and those places that already have deals in place with the EU. And I would be looking to simply bring treaties across, as much as possible, with a simple "search and replace" (yes, I know it won't be that simple, but others with to minimise disruption too.)

Even if deals had been only agreed, rather than signed, this would allow the government to put its stake in the ground and demonstrate some progress and a sense of purpose.

Still, as I said, at least we're moving (slowly) in the right direction.

Yes it is the usual story. Pick the low hanging fruit first (easily done even without EU migrant workers) and that gives you the confidence to deal with some of the trickier customers. I agree that the US is likely to be one of these whatever Trump is saying today.

Taking a pessimistic view, the devil is always in the details. Some of our existing regulation will act as NTBs to US products so the US will require its repeal as part of the process - which means that the treaty will require the assent of parliament. And then someone like Zac will pipe up and say it doesn't fit with his Green Brexit views, and some rural MPs will worry about the effect of US competition on their farming constituents. The Labour Party should be in favour, of course, because lower food prices would benefit the poorest in society. But instead they will wish to inflict a defeat on the government...

stevef said:

Corbyn remains the best thing to happen to the Tory party -but not in the way that was at first thought. A Corbyn government would be so disastrous, that the Tories would be using it in their PPBs long after Corbyn is gone. And I am a non Blairite Labour supporter. To campaign with poetry to crowds of chanting adulaters is one thing, but when the prose crashes and burns is another.

Indeed. There is a case to be made that it would be in the Tories' best interests for Corbyn to win the next general election, mess up the economy and then for them to be in contention at the subsequent election rather than for the Tories to narrowly win next time then a moderate like Umunna wins the following general election by a landslide and the Tories are then out of power for a decade or more. There is no doubt that it is in the country's best interests to keep Corbyn out though

another_richard said:

nunuone said:

"If May (or successor) wants to have any chance then she needs to get building houses on a Macmillan scale."

This. A million times this. Not least because the Tories have been in power for 7 years now and by the time of the next election the public will expect actual tangible results from them.

Under Cameron and Osborne the Conservatives forgot they should be the party of aspiration and instead became the party of stasis and privilege.

Ever increasing numbers of pensioners with ever increasing triple lock pensions living in houses with ever increasing prices and voting Conservative in ever increasing numbers.

It would be interesting to see how home ownership levels have changed in comparison to electoral changes.

Things like this have killed the Conservatives in urban areas:

' Home ownership among 25-year-olds has fallen by more than half in the last two decades, new research shows.

Twenty years ago, some 46 per cent of all 25-year-olds owned their home, according to the Local Government Association (LGA).

Today, this proportion has fallen to 20 per cent.

The research, carried out by state agent Savills, found private renters pay 34 per cent of their total household income on rent, while social and affordable renters pay 29 per cent.

In comparison, homeowners pay an average 18 per cent of their total household income on their mortgage, or pay no housing costs because they own outright. '

http://www.cityam.com/256077/generational-home-ownership-gap-exposed-proportion-25-year

It really does seem mad that the Conservatives thought that people who couldn't become homeowners were going to be won over by an increase in overseas aid or by the hugging of some huskies.

CornishJohn said:

nunuone said:

"If May (or successor) wants to have any chance then she needs to get building houses on a Macmillan scale."

This. A million times this. Not least because the Tories have been in power for 7 years now and by the time of the next election the public will expect actual tangible results from them.

A third vote from me. People over 35 really do not appreciate how much the breaking of the aspiration to have your own home, fit for raising a family, is destroying the Tory vote among the young. We need to both build houses on a Macmillan scale as mentioned and cut demand by limiting immigration that doesn't contribute much to the economy.

The Grenfell Tower disaster shows us that the quality of the homes we build needs to count as much as the numbers. And in many cases we're not building quality homes.

Beverley_C said:

RobD said:

@Beverley_C China has written the UK off? Hm, that isn't really consistent with their presidents recent remarks

When top officials start calling us a "Declining Empire" that is not a good sign. The only real thing we can offer them is our services and finanicial sector because the EU is rubbish at it, but all the other stuff will be going to the EU.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/brexit-implications-eu-china-relations

Isn't that just a statement of fact?

foxinsoxuk said:

GIN1138 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

It is never too late too late to look after your health, but there are many false positives in the 2 week wait has a lot of false positives, so room for optimism.

Best wishes so we can spar politically for many years to come!

I was completely unconcerned when I was put on the two week referral by my dentist (I had a large white patch in the mouth) as I thought it was totally trivial not being a smoker and not much of a drinker.

The appointment with the specialist soon bucked my ideas up as the first thing he did was start examining my neck for possible metastasis to lymph nodes and booked me in for an urgent biopsy

The worst part of the whole experience I found was between biopsy and receiving a letter from the hospital some four weeks further on telling me I had to go back to discuss the results and treatment options in another six weeks.

I knew then that I didn't have the "C" as they wouldn't leave someone for weeks and weeks with cancer... But for those four weeks from biopsy to the letter coming I had no idea what was happening at all.

Definitely thought the communication could have been better... Though my actual treatment and care right up to removal of the lesion and regular follow-up appointments was excellent.

Pathology reporting of biopsies is variable in speed as a national shortage exists. A lot retired after Alder Hey and recruiting is a real problem.

As I have mentioned in the past, staff recruitment and retention is the health services biggest challenge, particularly with the demographic challenges. Most OECD countries are big importers of staff, and it is a worldwide challenge.

Thanks for explaining Fox In Sox.

nunuone said:

another_richard said:

nunuone said:

"If May (or successor) wants to have any chance then she needs to get building houses on a Macmillan scale."

This. A million times this. Not least because the Tories have been in power for 7 years now and by the time of the next election the public will expect actual tangible results from them.

Under Cameron and Osborne the Conservatives forgot they should be the party of aspiration and instead became the party of stasis and privilege.

Ever increasing numbers of pensioners with ever increasing triple lock pensions living in houses with ever increasing prices and voting Conservative in ever increasing numbers.

Building that many homes will be hard and expensive. But Corbyn needs a tiny swing to be PM, which would be much much more expensive.

They need to go for broke and build build build, especially in London and the south, but in the big northern cities as well and everywhere else that needs it.

Social housing, private housing, homes for rent, homes for first timers, family homes but most of all good quality safe homes.

How do we build mass numbers of quality, safe homes of the sort people want to live in, at a price they can afford? And this question leaves out all the other issues, such as the environmental regulations for new houses that push up construction prices.

I'm far from sure that it's possible to meet all the requirements. We may be able to have cheap homes, but they may not be quality. We may be able to build quality homes, but not of the sort people ideally want to live in. We may build large numbers of quality homes of the sort people want to buy in, but have them unaffordable.

We've had a couple of decades of people trying to build 'cheap' homes (e.g. homes or £100,000 or less), and the schemes never really seem to take off. Remember Prescott's disastrous Pathfinder scheme?

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

stevef said:

Corbyn remains the best thing to happen to the Tory party -but not in the way that was at first thought. A Corbyn government would be so disastrous, that the Tories would be using it in their PPBs long after Corbyn is gone. And I am a non Blairite Labour supporter. To campaign with poetry to crowds of chanting adulaters is one thing, but when the prose crashes and burns is another.

Indeed. There is a case to be made that it would be in the Tories' best interests for Corbyn to win the next general election, mess up the economy and then for them to be in contention at the subsequent election rather than for the Tories to narrowly win next time then a moderate like Umunna wins the following general election by a landslide and the Tories are then out of power for a decade or more. There is no doubt that it is in the country's best interests to keep Corbyn out though

Clearly no doubt in your mind... but many (>40% from the latest polls) clearly do not believe that blythe assumption. As many, if not more, believe that brexit will mess up the economy before Corbyn gets a chance.

42% still voted to keep Corbyn out, with Corbyn you get hard Brexit plus socialism on top

another_richard said:

another_richard said:

nunuone said:

"If May (or successor) wants to have any chance then she needs to get building houses on a Macmillan scale."

This. A million times this. Not least because the Tories have been in power for 7 years now and by the time of the next election the public will expect actual tangible results from them.

Under Cameron and Osborne the Conservatives forgot they should be the party of aspiration and instead became the party of stasis and privilege.

Ever increasing numbers of pensioners with ever increasing triple lock pensions living in houses with ever increasing prices and voting Conservative in ever increasing numbers.

It would be interesting to see how home ownership levels have changed in comparison to electoral changes.

Things like this have killed the Conservatives in urban areas:

' Home ownership among 25-year-olds has fallen by more than half in the last two decades, new research shows.

Twenty years ago, some 46 per cent of all 25-year-olds owned their home, according to the Local Government Association (LGA).

Today, this proportion has fallen to 20 per cent.

The research, carried out by state agent Savills, found private renters pay 34 per cent of their total household income on rent, while social and affordable renters pay 29 per cent.

In comparison, homeowners pay an average 18 per cent of their total household income on their mortgage, or pay no housing costs because they own outright. '

http://www.cityam.com/256077/generational-home-ownership-gap-exposed-proportion-25-year

It really does seem mad that the Conservatives thought that people who couldn't become homeowners were going to be won over by an increase in overseas aid or by the hugging of some huskies.

Thatcher's plan for council houses to be bought up bt their occupants was intended to be good for the occupants wealth but also a way for people to have a greater stake in the economy and thus vote for the political party most able to perpetuate a smooth economy rather than try to disrupt it.

nunuone said:

another_richard said:

nunuone said:

"If May (or successor) wants to have any chance then she needs to get building houses on a Macmillan scale."

This. A million times this. Not least because the Tories have been in power for 7 years now and by the time of the next election the public will expect actual tangible results from them.

Under Cameron and Osborne the Conservatives forgot they should be the party of aspiration and instead became the party of stasis and privilege.

Ever increasing numbers of pensioners with ever increasing triple lock pensions living in houses with ever increasing prices and voting Conservative in ever increasing numbers.

Building that many homes will be hard and expensive. But Corbyn needs a tiny swing to be PM, which would be much much more expensive.

They need to go for broke and build build build, especially in London and the south, but in the big northern cities as well and everywhere else that needs it.

Social housing, private housing, homes for rent, homes for first timers, family homes but most of all good quality safe homes.

Several problems with that starting with Tory voting Nimbus, passing via shortage of building workers (apart from immigrants) but ending with house price deflation, negative equity and a renewed banking crisis.

There is no easy way out for the Tories.

tyson said:

o/t

I was out with a group urbane Italian friends last night... not one, I repeat not one knew the name of our PM. Not one.

We have been reduced to one of those inconsequential countries where no one knows or cares of our political leadership.

We are the country led by Auntie Mabel from Maidenhead hoping for someone, however odious dropping some crumbs because they feel sorry for us.

From 2008 when Brown showed the rest how to save the world banking system to 2017 when we are a diminished and fast diminishing country. And people have the fucking cheek to say Brexit is patriotic.

But we haven't left yet.

tyson said:

o/t

I was out with a group urbane Italian friends last night... not one, I repeat not one knew the name of our PM. Not one.

We have been reduced to one of those inconsequential countries where no one knows or cares of our political leadership.

We are the country led by Auntie Mabel from Maidenhead hoping for someone, however odious dropping some crumbs because they feel sorry for us.

From 2008 when Brown showed the rest how to save the world banking system to 2017 when we are a diminished and fast diminishing country. And people have the fucking cheek to say Brexit is patriotic.

And how many Brits could name the Italian PM? Or the Spanish? Or the Dutch? How many could name the French president?

@SandyRentool and@hyufd

You make my point perfectly.. though Sandy everyone knew Macron.......

The British PM should be one of the most influential and recognised world figures. We are now one of the also rans who no one even remotely considers.

foxinsoxuk said:

nunuone said:

another_richard said:

nunuone said:

"If May (or successor) wants to have any chance then she needs to get building houses on a Macmillan scale."

This. A million times this. Not least because the Tories have been in power for 7 years now and by the time of the next election the public will expect actual tangible results from them.

Under Cameron and Osborne the Conservatives forgot they should be the party of aspiration and instead became the party of stasis and privilege.

Ever increasing numbers of pensioners with ever increasing triple lock pensions living in houses with ever increasing prices and voting Conservative in ever increasing numbers.

Building that many homes will be hard and expensive. But Corbyn needs a tiny swing to be PM, which would be much much more expensive.

They need to go for broke and build build build, especially in London and the south, but in the big northern cities as well and everywhere else that needs it.

Social housing, private housing, homes for rent, homes for first timers, family homes but most of all good quality safe homes.

Several problems with that starting with Tory voting Nimbus, passing via shortage of building workers (apart from immigrants) but ending with house price deflation, negative equity and a renewed banking crisis.

There is no easy way out for the Tories.

Britain is a country which wants to buy cheap houses and inherit expensive houses.

And will blame the government if that isn't possible.

HYUFD said:

tyson said:

o/t

I was out with a group urbane Italian friends last night... not one, I repeat not one knew the name of our PM. Not one.

We have been reduced to one of those inconsequential countries where no one knows or cares of our political leadership.

We are the country led by Auntie Mabel from Maidenhead hoping for someone, however odious dropping some crumbs because they feel sorry for us.

From 2008 when Brown showed the rest how to save the world banking system to 2017 when we are a diminished and fast diminishing country. And people have the fucking cheek to say Brexit is patriotic.

I bet a few more Italians know May's name than Brits know the name of the current technocrat who is PM of Italy. With one of the main Italian opposition leaders a comedian, no wonder even Berlusconi has a shot at returning to power next year

It was also Brown setting the way for bailing out most of the banks which paved the way for the revival of the populist left we are now seeing

And before that Brown moved bank regulation away from the Bank of England to a a new body, the FSA, which failed to stop banks lend too much money at interest rates which were too low for the risk - even though it had the regulatory tools to do so.

That's why Brown/Labour was responsible for the 2007/2008 recession in the UK.

SandyRentool said:

tyson said:

o/t

I was out with a group urbane Italian friends last night... not one, I repeat not one knew the name of our PM. Not one.

We have been reduced to one of those inconsequential countries where no one knows or cares of our political leadership.

We are the country led by Auntie Mabel from Maidenhead hoping for someone, however odious dropping some crumbs because they feel sorry for us.

From 2008 when Brown showed the rest how to save the world banking system to 2017 when we are a diminished and fast diminishing country. And people have the fucking cheek to say Brexit is patriotic.

And how many Brits could name the Italian PM? Or the Spanish? Or the Dutch? How many could name the French president?

Well, assuming that pb is representative of the country as a whole, all of them. :Smile:

tyson said:

@SandyRentool and@hyufd

You make my point perfectly.. though Sandy everyone knew Macron.......

The British PM should be one of the most influential and recognised world figures. We are now one of the also rans who no one even remotely considers.

To be fair, having May slip under the radar is a good thing.The less we are associated with her the better!

SandyRentool said:

David_Evershed said:

JosiasJessop said:

CornishJohn said:

nunuone said:

"If May (or successor) wants to have any chance then she needs to get building houses on a Macmillan scale."

This. A million times this. Not least because the Tories have been in power for 7 years now and by the time of the next election the public will expect actual tangible results from them.

A third vote from me. People over 35 really do not appreciate how much the breaking of the aspiration to have your own home, fit for raising a family, is destroying the Tory vote among the young. We need to both build houses on a Macmillan scale as mentioned and cut demand by limiting immigration that doesn't contribute much to the economy.

The Grenfell Tower disaster shows us that the quality of the homes we build needs to count as much as the numbers. And in many cases we're not building quality homes.

It seems it was the refurbishment was the problem not the original build.

The poor construction of tower blocks with regard to their lack of insulation has resulted in the need to retrofit external cladding. However, that does not mean that fire resistance needed to be compromised.

Grenfell Tower was very strongly-built from a reinforced concrete frames and walls. Otherwise it would have collapsed, like the WTC and Ronan Point (partly) did.

A four-storey timber-frame block in Croydon was destroyed in a fire in I think 2010 but we aren't silly enough to build timber high-rise. Er, um ... https://www.dezeen.com/2016/04/08/plp-architecture-cambridge-university-london-first-wooden-skyscraper-barbican/

The Ronan Point-type blocks were built in the middle of the tower block boom to save money and speed up construction. I'm not sure if any are left but they'd collapse in a severe fire house of cards-style. Sam Webb, the architect who investigated the Ronan Point collapse, organised a fire test after the tenants had vacated the block.

tyson said:

@SandyRentool and@hyufd

You make my point perfectly.. though Sandy everyone knew Macron.......

The British PM should be one of the most influential and recognised world figures. We are now one of the also rans who no one even remotely considers.

That's good if it stops the posturing by British governments with its consequent war-mongering and showering endless billions around.

And BTW Gordon Brown was considered a joke on the world stage - the PM who was given a few DVDs as a present by Obama.

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

foxinsoxuk said:

nunuone said:

another_richard said:

nunuone said:

"If May (or successor) wants to have any chance then she needs to get building houses on a Macmillan scale."

This. A million times this. Not least because the Tories have been in power for 7 years now and by the time of the next election the public will expect actual tangible results from them.

Under Cameron and Osborne the Conservatives forgot they should be the party of aspiration and instead became the party of stasis and privilege.

Ever increasing numbers of pensioners with ever increasing triple lock pensions living in houses with ever increasing prices and voting Conservative in ever increasing numbers.

Building that many homes will be hard and expensive. But Corbyn needs a tiny swing to be PM, which would be much much more expensive.

They need to go for broke and build build build, especially in London and the south, but in the big northern cities as well and everywhere else that needs it.

Social housing, private housing, homes for rent, homes for first timers, family homes but most of all good quality safe homes.

Several problems with that starting with Tory voting Nimbus, passing via shortage of building workers (apart from immigrants) but ending with house price deflation, negative equity and a renewed banking crisis.

There is no easy way out for the Tories.

Britain is a country which wants to buy cheap houses and inherit expensive houses.

And will blame the government if that isn't possible.

Got it in one, neither the Tories nor Labour can solve that one!

The only way to bring down high real terms house prices (and personal debt) without negative equity is to let inflation rip. A dose of printing money and payrises for all should do the trick. Corbyns can do this, though there may be a few side effects.

Inflation without interest rate rises will lead to the banks being emptied.

Which might be good for the price of gold, stock market values and consumer spending but less so for financial stability.

tyson said:

o/t

I was out with a group urbane Italian friends last night... not one, I repeat not one knew the name of our PM. Not one.

We have been reduced to one of those inconsequential countries where no one knows or cares of our political leadership.

We are the country led by Auntie Mabel from Maidenhead hoping for someone, however odious dropping some crumbs because they feel sorry for us.

From 2008 when Brown showed the rest how to save the world banking system to 2017 when we are a diminished and fast diminishing country. And people have the fucking cheek to say Brexit is patriotic.

I wouldn't know the PM of Italy without googling it either. Not sure what that proves.

another_richard said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

foxinsoxuk said:

nunuone said:

another_richard said:

nunuone said:

"If May (or successor) wants to have any chance then she needs to get building houses on a Macmillan scale."

This. A million times this. Not least because the Tories have been in power for 7 years now and by the time of the next election the public will expect actual tangible results from them.

Under Cameron and Osborne the Conservatives forgot they should be the party of aspiration and instead became the party of stasis and privilege.

Ever increasing numbers of pensioners with ever increasing triple lock pensions living in houses with ever increasing prices and voting Conservative in ever increasing numbers.

Building that many homes will be hard and expensive. But Corbyn needs a tiny swing to be PM, which would be much much more expensive.

They need to go for broke and build build build, especially in London and the south, but in the big northern cities as well and everywhere else that needs it.

Social housing, private housing, homes for rent, homes for first timers, family homes but most of all good quality safe homes.

Several problems with that starting with Tory voting Nimbus, passing via shortage of building workers (apart from immigrants) but ending with house price deflation, negative equity and a renewed banking crisis.

There is no easy way out for the Tories.

Britain is a country which wants to buy cheap houses and inherit expensive houses.

And will blame the government if that isn't possible.

Got it in one, neither the Tories nor Labour can solve that one!

The only way to bring down high real terms house prices (and personal debt) without negative equity is to let inflation rip. A dose of printing money and payrises for all should do the trick. Corbyns can do this, though there may be a few side effects.

Inflation without interest rate rises will lead to the banks being emptied.

Which might be good for the price of gold, stock market values and consumer spending but less so for financial stability.

I can see a government dabbling with inflation as a mechanism though, indeed we already see it to a degree.

another_richard said:

foxinsoxuk said:

nunuone said:

another_richard said:

nunuone said:

"If May (or successor) wants to have any chance then she needs to get building houses on a Macmillan scale."

This. A million times this. Not least because the Tories have been in power for 7 years now and by the time of the next election the public will expect actual tangible results from them.

Under Cameron and Osborne the Conservatives forgot they should be the party of aspiration and instead became the party of stasis and privilege.

Ever increasing numbers of pensioners with ever increasing triple lock pensions living in houses with ever increasing prices and voting Conservative in ever increasing numbers.

Building that many homes will be hard and expensive. But Corbyn needs a tiny swing to be PM, which would be much much more expensive.

They need to go for broke and build build build, especially in London and the south, but in the big northern cities as well and everywhere else that needs it.

Social housing, private housing, homes for rent, homes for first timers, family homes but most of all good quality safe homes.

Several problems with that starting with Tory voting Nimbus, passing via shortage of building workers (apart from immigrants) but ending with house price deflation, negative equity and a renewed banking crisis.

There is no easy way out for the Tories.

Britain is a country which wants to buy cheap houses and inherit expensive houses.

And will blame the government if that isn't possible.

I do wonder what would happen if we just 100% capital gains taxed all property.

Lots of fraud, probably.

Beverley_C said:

RobD said:

@Beverley_C China has written the UK off? Hm, that isn't really consistent with their presidents recent remarks

When top officials start calling us a "Declining Empire" that is not a good sign. The only real thing we can offer them is our services and finanicial sector because the EU is rubbish at it, but all the other stuff will be going to the EU.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/brexit-implications-eu-china-relations

In an airplane the most valuable parts are the engines. After that, the wings. Which (current) EU country dominates European supply of both and has the only global top 3 engine maker?

Paristonda said:

another_richard said:

tyson said:

@SandyRentool and@hyufd

You make my point perfectly.. though Sandy everyone knew Macron.......

The British PM should be one of the most influential and recognised world figures. We are now one of the also rans who no one even remotely considers.

That's good if it stops the posturing by British governments with its consequent war-mongering and showering endless billions around.

And BTW Gordon Brown was considered a joke on the world stage - the PM who was given a few DVDs as a present by Obama.

I think we've probably only had 2 world famous (in the West) PMs since the end of war; Churchill, Thatcher, and Blair. I think today the average Jose would be able to name you those three.

I think most brits will remember Merkel in years to come, and other than that not sure how many German chancellors, maybe Kohl?

For French Presidents it would be De Gaulle and Mitterand I think, too early to say for Macron.

Chirac too of French Presidents possibly but no more than that

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

In some ways this actually puts us in a good position: if we were the ones under the gun from a time perspective, we would be the ones needing to make all the concessions. (And concessions, by the way, means restrictions on our ability to have product - particularly agricultural - standards that restrict US imports.)

It's also worth remembering that the US has a trade deficit with the UK. A key priority of this deal will be Donald Trump being able to say that he has signed a deal that reduces the imbalance. To my mind, that means principally means food.

Final point: it remains to be seen what will happen with the Border Tax Adjustment. If we are exempted from it, then it's good for us, but probably bad for the world, as it signals the US's departure from the WTO. If we're not, then there's a real question about how much benefit will accrue, given the c. 15% cost added to all imports through their non tax-deductability.

The devil, as always, is in the details.

Although the Democrats may well take the House, the GOP should hold the Senate and since it is the Senate which is really the chamber which approves a trade deal, the midterms should not impact too much on a US UK trade deal

Do you have a source for that?

If I remember from my A level politics it is the Senate which has to approve all US foreign treaties the President signs, which I think is what Charles also alluded to

One of the proposals made by Hannan and Carswell in 'The Plan' was that we should move closer to the US system as far as approving both treaties and our overseas representatives was concerned. So all treaties would have to be voted on in Parliament and all new ambassadors would have to be approved by Parliamentary committee. Basically removing the Royal Prerogative in all areas. Take power from the executive and give it to the legislature.

Sounds sensible and would improve their legitimacy. Best wishes on the medical front too!

I have just reread 'The Plan again a couple of weeks ago and there is a huge amount in it that I think would benefit the UK along with some stuff that had already been introduced. Open Primaries and Recall are two more points I think are worth pursuing. Also tighter limits on the Government payroll.

Yes, it is a very good book, well esearched and looking at good aspects of systems elsewhere. Some of it was in the 2010 manifesto but didn't make it through the coalition.

And good luck with the quacks, as others have said.

CarlottaVance said:

Beverley_C said:

RobD said:

@Beverley_C China has written the UK off? Hm, that isn't really consistent with their presidents recent remarks

When top officials start calling us a "Declining Empire" that is not a good sign. The only real thing we can offer them is our services and finanicial sector because the EU is rubbish at it, but all the other stuff will be going to the EU.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/brexit-implications-eu-china-relations

In an airplane the most valuable parts are the engines. After that, the wings. Which (current) EU country dominates European supply of both and has the only global top 3 engine maker?

Airplane?!?

Aeroplane!!!

SandyRentool said:

CarlottaVance said:

Beverley_C said:

RobD said:

@Beverley_C China has written the UK off? Hm, that isn't really consistent with their presidents recent remarks

When top officials start calling us a "Declining Empire" that is not a good sign. The only real thing we can offer them is our services and finanicial sector because the EU is rubbish at it, but all the other stuff will be going to the EU.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/brexit-implications-eu-china-relations

In an airplane the most valuable parts are the engines. After that, the wings. Which (current) EU country dominates European supply of both and has the only global top 3 engine maker?

Airplane?!?

Aeroplane!!!

Aero - yum yum.

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

foxinsoxuk said:

nunuone said:

another_richard said:

nunuone said:

"If May (or successor) wants to have any chance then she needs to get building houses on a Macmillan scale."

This. A million times this. Not least because the Tories have been in power for 7 years now and by the time of the next election the public will expect actual tangible results from them.

Under Cameron and Osborne the Conservatives forgot they should be the party of aspiration and instead became the party of stasis and privilege.

Ever increasing numbers of pensioners with ever increasing triple lock pensions living in houses with ever increasing prices and voting Conservative in ever increasing numbers.

Building that many homes will be hard and expensive. But Corbyn needs a tiny swing to be PM, which would be much much more expensive.

They need to go for broke and build build build, especially in London and the south, but in the big northern cities as well and everywhere else that needs it.

Social housing, private housing, homes for rent, homes for first timers, family homes but most of all good quality safe homes.

Several problems with that starting with Tory voting Nimbus, passing via shortage of building workers (apart from immigrants) but ending with house price deflation, negative equity and a renewed banking crisis.

There is no easy way out for the Tories.

Britain is a country which wants to buy cheap houses and inherit expensive houses.

And will blame the government if that isn't possible.

Got it in one, neither the Tories nor Labour can solve that one!

The only way to bring down high real terms house prices (and personal debt) without negative equity is to let inflation rip. A dose of printing money and payrises for all should do the trick. Corbyns can do this, though there may be a few side effects.

Indeed, it was inflation during the 1974 to 1979 Labour government which helped bring Thatcher to power

Inflation was not actually that high when Thatcher took office. At just under 10% it was quite a bit lower than when Heath departed in March 1974. Thatcher's victory had much more to do with the industrial strife of Jan/Feb 79 - the Winter of Discontent. Had Callaghan called the election for Auumn 1978 Thatcher might well have lost - and never become PM.

It was a combination of both, of course Thatcher beat Heath first in 1975 then Callaghan in 1979

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

another_richard said:

foxinsoxuk said:

nunuone said:

another_richard said:

Under Cameron and Osborne the Conservatives forgot they should be the party of aspiration and instead became the party of stasis and privilege.

Ever increasing numbers of pensioners with ever increasing triple lock pensions living in houses with ever increasing prices and voting Conservative in ever increasing numbers.

Building that many homes will be hard and expensive. But Corbyn needs a tiny swing to be PM, which would be much much more expensive.

They need to go for broke and build build build, especially in London and the south, but in the big northern cities as well and everywhere else that needs it.

Social housing, private housing, homes for rent, homes for first timers, family homes but most of all good quality safe homes.

Several problems with that starting with Tory voting Nimbus, passing via shortage of building workers (apart from immigrants) but ending with house price deflation, negative equity and a renewed banking crisis.

There is no easy way out for the Tories.

Britain is a country which wants to buy cheap houses and inherit expensive houses.

And will blame the government if that isn't possible.

Got it in one, neither the Tories nor Labour can solve that one!

The only way to bring down high real terms house prices (and personal debt) without negative equity is to let inflation rip. A dose of printing money and payrises for all should do the trick. Corbyns can do this, though there may be a few side effects.

Indeed, it was inflation during the 1974 to 1979 Labour government which helped bring Thatcher to power

Inflation was not actually that high when Thatcher took office. At just under 10% it was quite a bit lower than when Heath departed in March 1974. Thatcher's victory had much more to do with the industrial strife of Jan/Feb 79 - the Winter of Discontent. Had Callaghan called the election for Auumn 1978 Thatcher might well have lost - and never become PM.

That's right. Until the Winter of Discontent, Callaghan's government had been having a good run. Unemployment was falling and GDP was growing at close to 1% a quarter following the mid 70s post Barber boom bust and the oil crises.

And then the Winter of Discontent happened.

CornishJohn said:

The US President has committed to a fast and expansive trade deal.

How many of his "commitments" have been realised, and how many have been dumped?

JosiasJessop said:

As an example of new house building: houses with chimneys sell for more than houses without chimneys. Hence the more expensive houses being built around our way have brick chimneys sticking out of the roof.

Except chimneys are also massive holes that let heat escape and cold air in, and cost money to properly build. Therefore they are faux-chimneys: they are built into the roof trusses at ground level and lifted up on the trusses. Hence you see brick chimneys on a roof that are physically unconnected to anything (although in some cases they run a flue from a gas boiler up to them). They are certainly not chimneys for fires.

Another one I've heard of (though not around here) is a 'proper' chimney being built, but leaving the interior flue unlined. Which can have rather deleterious effects on the house if they set a fire.

My house, 20 years old, has a fake chimney, and a ridge tile outlet for the flue next to it.

A couple of neighbours have replaced their gas fires with wood burners, which require an external steel column bolted onto the side of the house.

Paristonda said:

another_richard said:

tyson said:

@SandyRentool and@hyufd

You make my point perfectly.. though Sandy everyone knew Macron.......

The British PM should be one of the most influential and recognised world figures. We are now one of the also rans who no one even remotely considers.

That's good if it stops the posturing by British governments with its consequent war-mongering and showering endless billions around.

And BTW Gordon Brown was considered a joke on the world stage - the PM who was given a few DVDs as a present by Obama.

I think we've probably only had 3 world famous (in the West) PMs since the end of war; Churchill, Thatcher, and Blair. I think today the average Jose would be able to name you those three.

I think most brits will remember Merkel in years to come, and other than that not sure how many German chancellors, maybe Kohl?

For French Presidents it would be De Gaulle and Mitterand I think, too early to say for Macron.

We should remember Konrad Adenauer, who was the main driver behind the formation of the EU and the development of NATO into a powerful organisation. I don't think many have heard of him.

David_Evershed said:

Beverley_C said:

RobD said:

@Beverley_C China has written the UK off? Hm, that isn't really consistent with their presidents recent remarks

When top officials start calling us a "Declining Empire" that is not a good sign. The only real thing we can offer them is our services and finanicial sector because the EU is rubbish at it, but all the other stuff will be going to the EU.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/brexit-implications-eu-china-relations

If you look at the Olympic medals table we are not a declining empire.

Which is largely down to track cycling; a sport which one and a half countries take seriously (GB and AUS). It was cunningly indentified as the sport which would provide the most medals for the money invested.

Scott_P said:

CornishJohn said:

The US President has committed to a fast and expansive trade deal.

How many of his "commitments" have been realised, and how many have been dumped?

@CornishJohn has a touching faith in Trump being capable of delivering anything. Hasn't everyone realised yet that he is a charleton? Where is his Mexican wall, scrapping of NAFTA or "unbelievably great" healthcare reforms.

Trump couldn't deliver a pizza let alone a trade deal.

rcs1000 said:

As an aside, it ought not to be forgotten that the housing boom has created a very large number of people with big mortgages.

Getting prices down (say) 40% to help with those not on the property "ladder" will be fairly disastrous for those on 90% mortgages. It will also have a negative impact on labour mobility, by putting large numbers of people into negative equity.

House prices in the London hotspots last fell by around 40-50% back in 1988/89 - negative equity had a brutal impact on many folks lives - particularly those working their way up the property ladder.

The negative equity problem was further exacerbated by Nigel Lawson's £30k MIRAS per person initiative, resulting in many London 20 something professionals grouping together to buy family houses !!

Scott_P said:

JosiasJessop said:

As an example of new house building: houses with chimneys sell for more than houses without chimneys. Hence the more expensive houses being built around our way have brick chimneys sticking out of the roof.

Except chimneys are also massive holes that let heat escape and cold air in, and cost money to properly build. Therefore they are faux-chimneys: they are built into the roof trusses at ground level and lifted up on the trusses. Hence you see brick chimneys on a roof that are physically unconnected to anything (although in some cases they run a flue from a gas boiler up to them). They are certainly not chimneys for fires.

Another one I've heard of (though not around here) is a 'proper' chimney being built, but leaving the interior flue unlined. Which can have rather deleterious effects on the house if they set a fire.

My house, 20 years old, has a fake chimney, and a ridge tile outlet for the flue next to it.

A couple of neighbours have replaced their gas fires with wood burners, which require an external steel column bolted onto the side of the house.

It's crazy. It's nonsensical. Yet housebuilders build them as people will pay more for houses with a chimney, even if they are useless and pointless.

Chimneys appear to be status symbols.

JosiasJessop said:

Scott_P said:

JosiasJessop said:

As an example of new house building: houses with chimneys sell for more than houses without chimneys. Hence the more expensive houses being built around our way have brick chimneys sticking out of the roof.

Except chimneys are also massive holes that let heat escape and cold air in, and cost money to properly build. Therefore they are faux-chimneys: they are built into the roof trusses at ground level and lifted up on the trusses. Hence you see brick chimneys on a roof that are physically unconnected to anything (although in some cases they run a flue from a gas boiler up to them). They are certainly not chimneys for fires.

Another one I've heard of (though not around here) is a 'proper' chimney being built, but leaving the interior flue unlined. Which can have rather deleterious effects on the house if they set a fire.

My house, 20 years old, has a fake chimney, and a ridge tile outlet for the flue next to it.

A couple of neighbours have replaced their gas fires with wood burners, which require an external steel column bolted onto the side of the house.

It's crazy. It's nonsensical. Yet housebuilders build them as people will pay more for houses with a chimney, even if they are useless and pointless.

Chimneys appear to be status symbols.

The chimney is a phallic symbol.