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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn is a survivor: back him to last until 2019 at least

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  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,490
    edited July 2017
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Does anyone else think the 15 available on Betfair for SA to win the Test is good value?
    It only takes one old fashioned England 2nd innings collapse after all.

    Sandpit said:

    Does anyone else think the 15 available on Betfair for SA to win the Test is good value?
    It only takes one old fashioned England 2nd innings collapse after all.

    Think I would want longer than that to be honest.

    They are 240 behind with only De Kock to come, I cannot really envisage them being in a winning position to be able to trade out of, just my opinion though

    Laying the draw at 4.2 looks the best bet to me
    It usually is but this is a good wicket and it will be a pleasant surprise if England are batting again before tea on day 3. Add in the abysmal over rates and a new captain cautious about a declaration and a draw still looks a real possibility to me.
    David, are England doing well at the rounders
    That's what the Americans play Malcolm. The English are playing the best thing to come out of the British empire.
    LOL, only thing I have ever thought is it would give you 5 days to sit supping beer. It is a bit slow and very dull.
    PS: probably more pleasant in India, sitting in the shade with a cool IPA.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,991
    Anyway 2 Portuguese custard tarts are probably enough. Time to take breakfast back to the villa for the lazy sods still abed.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,060

    HYUFD said:

    Good news for May at the G20, Trump says a US UK trade deal will happen 'very quickly' and Chinese President Xi Jinping hails a 'golden era' in UK China relations and says continued Chinese investment in the UK shows its confidence in post Brexit Britain
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40540340

    That cant be right? Surely Britain's been "shunned" and May "humiliated"? That's what the script said...
    Certainly shows that outside the EU the big players have moved on from the Brexit vote
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    HYUFD said:

    Obamacare's replacement has now passed the House and will shortly pass the Senate

    And 24m people lose healthcare.

    That's your measure of a great deal...
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,991
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Does anyone else think the 15 available on Betfair for SA to win the Test is good value?
    It only takes one old fashioned England 2nd innings collapse after all.

    Sandpit said:

    Does anyone else think the 15 available on Betfair for SA to win the Test is good value?
    It only takes one old fashioned England 2nd innings collapse after all.

    Think I would want longer than that to be honest.

    They are 240 behind with only De Kock to come, I cannot really envisage them being in a winning position to be able to trade out of, just my opinion though

    Laying the draw at 4.2 looks the best bet to me
    It usually is but this is a good wicket and it will be a pleasant surprise if England are batting again before tea on day 3. Add in the abysmal over rates and a new captain cautious about a declaration and a draw still looks a real possibility to me.
    David, are England doing well at the rounders
    That's what the Americans play Malcolm. The English are playing the best thing to come out of the British empire.
    LOL, only thing I have ever thought is it would give you 5 days to sit supping beer. It is a bit slow and very dull.
    Sitting at the test eating, drinking and being entertained by the banter as well as the cricket is about as close to heaven as you can get whilst still alive Malcolm, you should try it.
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Sandpit said:

    Lions with a temporary man advantage and only a three point deficit, this is going to be a great half hour of rugby.

    Atoji is brilliant
  • Options
    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    Obamacare's replacement has now passed the House and will shortly pass the Senate

    And 24m people lose healthcare.

    That's your measure of a great deal...
    Maybe so but it has fuck all to do with a trade deal has it?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686
    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    Obamacare's replacement has now passed the House and will shortly pass the Senate

    And 24m people lose healthcare.

    That's your measure of a great deal...
    The way Obamacare was going looked a lot like no deal Brexit...
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,682
    Mortimer said:

    FPT:

    rcs1000 said:

    Why have neither Mortimer nor Essexit taken their MAs yet?

    A good question - almost no one from my cohort bothered and the alumni department don't push it much either (as it clogs up graduation ceremonies).
    For the record, I haven't taken mine yet. But I think I'm pretty much the only person in my year not to have bothered. As I'm off to the US in less than three weeks (and MAs matter more there), I've finally asked the alumni relations office what I need to do.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,490

    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    Obamacare's replacement has now passed the House and will shortly pass the Senate

    And 24m people lose healthcare.

    That's your measure of a great deal...
    Maybe so but it has fuck all to do with a trade deal has it?
    But most likely that he has a similar type deal in mind for UK, one thing for sure he will not be trying to make it great for UK, it will be to benefit US or it will never happen.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Maybe so but it has fuck all to do with a trade deal has it?

    Anything Trump describes as "great" is entirely relevant
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101

    Mortimer said:

    Scott_P said:

    FF43 said:

    Inside Downing Street, there is concern that the election result forced the Brexit debate back onto questions of process — principally whether to go for a hard or a soft Brexit — which they hoped to have put to bed after outlining plans for a clean break with Brussels, leaving the single market and the customs union.

    It was put to bed. Her plans for a clean break were offered to the electorate, who promptly told her where to stick them
    That might be the case, had they not voted for someone else who also advocates a clean break.
    Increasingly people want Starmer negotiating Brexit, not the Tories.
    Citation required.

    If they'd wanted Starmer to negotiate BREXIT they'd have installed a Labour government.

    They didn't.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,490
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Does anyone else think the 15 available on Betfair for SA to win the Test is good value?
    It only takes one old fashioned England 2nd innings collapse after all.

    Sandpit said:

    Does anyone else think the 15 available on Betfair for SA to win the Test is good value?
    It only takes one old fashioned England 2nd innings collapse after all.

    Think I would want longer than that to be honest.

    They are 240 behind with only De Kock to come, I cannot really envisage them being in a winning position to be able to trade out of, just my opinion though

    Laying the draw at 4.2 looks the best bet to me
    It usually is but this is a good wicket and it will be a pleasant surprise if England are batting again before tea on day 3. Add in the abysmal over rates and a new captain cautious about a declaration and a draw still looks a real possibility to me.
    David, are England doing well at the rounders
    That's what the Americans play Malcolm. The English are playing the best thing to come out of the British empire.
    LOL, only thing I have ever thought is it would give you 5 days to sit supping beer. It is a bit slow and very dull.
    Sitting at the test eating, drinking and being entertained by the banter as well as the cricket is about as close to heaven as you can get whilst still alive Malcolm, you should try it.
    Maybe I will give it a try one day David, you do make it sound rather pleasant.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,290
    Morning folks.

    Not read the comments yet but I am amazed at how small 'c' conservative David is being in the thread header. I really can't see of any way barring incapacity or a black swan that Corbyn will not fight the next election. Even if his poll ratings plummet he and his supporters will be able to point to the polls before 2017 GE and then show how he performed far in excess of what they predicted. He has the support base at the grass roots and he has control of the party hierarchy.

    I think he is as certain as any politician possibly could be to be fighting the next GE.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,682
    Fellow PBers, the ruling party does not get 80% in Singaporean elections: it typically gets between 60% and 70%. Only once in the last 30-odd years has it topped 70%.

    (However, it does bear saying that until recently, only a minority of seats were contested and it is reasonable to assume that the seats where the opposition parties did not stand, were the ones where the PAP was strongest.)
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,060

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    nunu said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if Tory Leavers really intended a UK out of EU, free from any constraints, led by Corbyn using that freedom to pursue a socialist economic agenda.

    You don't get this democracy thing do you?

    A Corbyn government will only last 5 years (if that).
    McDonnell isn't stupid - if they get in, there will not be sweeping revolution early enough in the first term for negative effects to be seen. The foundations will be laid for it, but I think the first term will be mild with a couple of headline socialist policies to keep the base on board. The goal will be to win at least a second term where they can really go to town.
    Corbyn has already dragged the Overton window so far to the left that Tory cabinet ministers are lining up to dump austerity.

    Give him a couple more years in opposition and five years in power and the post-Brexit UK could be a very different place.
    Yes, Cuba without the sunshine!
    I appreciate this is (probably!) tongue-in-cheek but it is symptomatic of the way the Tories mishandle Corbyn through hyperbole.

    All talk of Venezuela, Cuba and Jezza being a jihadist or a dyed-in-the-wool Stalinist who will usher in the Soviet Rebublic of Britain are bound to backfire during because during any campaign the population get to see and hear him and the policies he propounds first-hand, and many like what they see.

    But tbh I don't think the Mail, Sun, Torygraph or indeed the Tory party are likely to understand that any time soon, so I suspect they will inadvertently help bring to pass the very thing they most fear.

    Strange old world, isn't it?

    Well if the voters vote for Corbyn socialism at the second time of asking (having narrowly rejected it the first time) at least they cannot complain they were not warned!
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,490

    Morning folks.

    Not read the comments yet but I am amazed at how small 'c' conservative David is being in the thread header. I really can't see of any way barring incapacity or a black swan that Corbyn will not fight the next election. Even if his poll ratings plummet he and his supporters will be able to point to the polls before 2017 GE and then show how he performed far in excess of what they predicted. He has the support base at the grass roots and he has control of the party hierarchy.

    I think he is as certain as any politician possibly could be to be fighting the next GE.

    morning Richard, have you had all clear yet
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Fellow PBers, the ruling party does not get 80% in Singaporean elections: it typically gets between 60% and 70%. Only once in the last 30-odd years has it topped 70%.

    (However, it does bear saying that until recently, only a minority of seats were contested and it is reasonable to assume that the seats where the opposition parties did not stand, were the ones where the PAP was strongest.)

    Somebody bothered to check wikipedia before bloviating?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Good news for May at the G20, Trump says a US UK trade deal will happen 'very quickly' and Chinese President Xi Jinping hails a 'golden era' in UK China relations and says continued Chinese investment in the UK shows its confidence in post Brexit Britain
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40540340

    That cant be right? Surely Britain's been "shunned" and May "humiliated"? That's what the script said...
    Theresa no mates is over there looking like the odd one out.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/05/canadian-pm-meets-the-queen-in-edinburgh-but-not-nicola-sturgeon
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,060
    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    Obamacare's replacement has now passed the House and will shortly pass the Senate

    And 24m people lose healthcare.

    That's your measure of a great deal...
    Well that was what Americans voted for last November (though I agree the midterms will be tricky for the GOP)
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,060
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Good news for May at the G20, Trump says a US UK trade deal will happen 'very quickly' and Chinese President Xi Jinping hails a 'golden era' in UK China relations and says continued Chinese investment in the UK shows its confidence in post Brexit Britain
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40540340

    Good news indeed.

    My approach to a trade deal with the US would be multi-phased, starting with services and high value goods with international standards (cars, planes, microchips) before moving to the trickier items like agriculture and pharmaceuticals later.
    Sounds sensible
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,290
    malcolmg said:

    Morning folks.

    Not read the comments yet but I am amazed at how small 'c' conservative David is being in the thread header. I really can't see of any way barring incapacity or a black swan that Corbyn will not fight the next election. Even if his poll ratings plummet he and his supporters will be able to point to the polls before 2017 GE and then show how he performed far in excess of what they predicted. He has the support base at the grass roots and he has control of the party hierarchy.

    I think he is as certain as any politician possibly could be to be fighting the next GE.

    morning Richard, have you had all clear yet
    Unfortunately not. In the words of Emperor Hirohito, the situation has developed not necessarily to my advantage. Now on the "2 week wait" for some rather more personal inspections.

    I find myself surprisingly calm about it. There is absolutely nothing I can do except go through the process and see how the dice roll so I see no point in getting in a state about it. I am still hoping that it will turn out to be something minor but if not I will deal with it as it comes. To be honest it is not quite the reaction I expected to have.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    rcs1000 said:

    Fellow PBers, the ruling party does not get 80% in Singaporean elections: it typically gets between 60% and 70%. Only once in the last 30-odd years has it topped 70%.

    (However, it does bear saying that until recently, only a minority of seats were contested and it is reasonable to assume that the seats where the opposition parties did not stand, were the ones where the PAP was strongest.)

    It holds over 80% of the seats:

    In the 2015 Singapore general election, the PAP won 83 of the 89 constituency elected seats in the Parliament of Singapore, representing 69.86% of total votes cast.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,012
    edited July 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT:

    rcs1000 said:

    Why have neither Mortimer nor Essexit taken their MAs yet?

    A good question - almost no one from my cohort bothered and the alumni department don't push it much either (as it clogs up graduation ceremonies).
    For the record, I haven't taken mine yet. But I think I'm pretty much the only person in my year not to have bothered. As I'm off to the US in less than three weeks (and MAs matter more there), I've finally asked the alumni relations office what I need to do.
    Hehe. Kinda quaint that anyone even worries about degrees at your level. Good luck!

    I work for myself and so the piece of paper (BA or MA) doesn't matter for much. And at the moment the more I walk the puppy the more successful the business is. Slightly worrying implications, if I didn't own it outright... :)
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,101
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Good news for May at the G20, Trump says a US UK trade deal will happen 'very quickly' and Chinese President Xi Jinping hails a 'golden era' in UK China relations and says continued Chinese investment in the UK shows its confidence in post Brexit Britain
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40540340

    Good news indeed.

    My approach to a trade deal with the US would be multi-phased, starting with services and high value goods with international standards (cars, planes, microchips) before moving to the trickier items like agriculture and pharmaceuticals later.
    That won't be the Trump team approach. Assuming it happens quickly, the main effect will be to open the UK market too cheap agricultural produce from the US, causing a UK agricultural crisis and complicating EU relations. The government may be happy with the second from a partisan POV. The rest of the agreement won't amount to a hill of beans. It will be like the the Australia/US FTA. The few benefits will be balanced by a similar number of negative consequences.

    But a UK/US FTA can be spun as a Brexit success. They need that right now
  • Options
    619619 Posts: 1,784

    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    Obamacare's replacement has now passed the House and will shortly pass the Senate

    And 24m people lose healthcare.

    That's your measure of a great deal...
    Maybe so but it has fuck all to do with a trade deal has it?
    looking at Trumps business history, not sure i trust his idea of a great deal.

    Anyway, sounds like crowds are mobilising to give the wotsit mussolini a very warm welcome
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,210
    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT:

    rcs1000 said:

    Why have neither Mortimer nor Essexit taken their MAs yet?

    A good question - almost no one from my cohort bothered and the alumni department don't push it much either (as it clogs up graduation ceremonies).
    For the record, I haven't taken mine yet. But I think I'm pretty much the only person in my year not to have bothered. As I'm off to the US in less than three weeks (and MAs matter more there), I've finally asked the alumni relations office what I need to do.
    Hehe. Kinda quaint that anyone even worries about degrees at your level. Good luck!

    I work for myself and so the piece of paper (BA or MA) doesn't matter for much. And at the moment the more I walk the puppy the more successful the business is. Slightly worrying implications, if I didn't own it outright... :)
    You don't own a dog walking business, do you? :p
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    Tom Gordon:

    Surely the PM’s authority will soon be underwater and an election upon us? I’d have agreed just after the election, but now I think she might be more durable. No viable alternative leader has emerged for a start. There’s no lack of wannabes, but the timing is off. If Brexit is a car crash, do Mrs May’s rivals want to be at the wheel in 2019? Far better to let her take the blame Take over now and there might be irresistible pressure for an election. But wait until later, and that pressure will have eased off. So the thinking at Westminster is that Mrs May will be allowed to stay until Brexit, thanked for her services, and duly dumped.


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/15398498.Tom_Gordon__How_the_SNP_is_helping_May_sharpen_her_poker_game/
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    I can't watch this!
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,862

    Tom Gordon:

    Surely the PM’s authority will soon be underwater and an election upon us? I’d have agreed just after the election, but now I think she might be more durable. No viable alternative leader has emerged for a start. There’s no lack of wannabes, but the timing is off. If Brexit is a car crash, do Mrs May’s rivals want to be at the wheel in 2019? Far better to let her take the blame Take over now and there might be irresistible pressure for an election. But wait until later, and that pressure will have eased off. So the thinking at Westminster is that Mrs May will be allowed to stay until Brexit, thanked for her services, and duly dumped.


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/15398498.Tom_Gordon__How_the_SNP_is_helping_May_sharpen_her_poker_game/

    That interesting snippet is most remarkable for the complete absence of any concern for the welfare of the Country.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT:

    rcs1000 said:

    Why have neither Mortimer nor Essexit taken their MAs yet?

    A good question - almost no one from my cohort bothered and the alumni department don't push it much either (as it clogs up graduation ceremonies).
    For the record, I haven't taken mine yet. But I think I'm pretty much the only person in my year not to have bothered. As I'm off to the US in less than three weeks (and MAs matter more there), I've finally asked the alumni relations office what I need to do.
    Hehe. Kinda quaint that anyone even worries about degrees at your level. Good luck!

    I work for myself and so the piece of paper (BA or MA) doesn't matter for much. And at the moment the more I walk the puppy the more successful the business is. Slightly worrying implications, if I didn't own it outright... :)
    I think there is a lot of inverse cool in sticking as a BA I am waiting for Oxford to have its Biafra moment so I can do a Lennon with my MA.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,157
    Sandpit said:

    I can't watch this!

    Lions were fortunate with the 78th minute offside decision there.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,682
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Fellow PBers, the ruling party does not get 80% in Singaporean elections: it typically gets between 60% and 70%. Only once in the last 30-odd years has it topped 70%.

    (However, it does bear saying that until recently, only a minority of seats were contested and it is reasonable to assume that the seats where the opposition parties did not stand, were the ones where the PAP was strongest.)

    Somebody bothered to check wikipedia before bloviating?
    I know, it's a social faux pas almost on par with reading the thread header before commenting.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    edited July 2017
    I think Istanbul 2005 was the last time I saw a whole bar full of people with their hands over their eyes for so long! What a match, and what a credit the Lions turned out to be, they turned up when it mattered and come home from New Zealand with a drawn series. Bravo!
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,008
    Well done, Lions. Difficult to watch that, but a perfect result for me.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,397

    malcolmg said:

    Morning folks.

    Not read the comments yet but I am amazed at how small 'c' conservative David is being in the thread header. I really can't see of any way barring incapacity or a black swan that Corbyn will not fight the next election. Even if his poll ratings plummet he and his supporters will be able to point to the polls before 2017 GE and then show how he performed far in excess of what they predicted. He has the support base at the grass roots and he has control of the party hierarchy.

    I think he is as certain as any politician possibly could be to be fighting the next GE.

    morning Richard, have you had all clear yet
    Unfortunately not. In the words of Emperor Hirohito, the situation has developed not necessarily to my advantage. Now on the "2 week wait" for some rather more personal inspections.

    I find myself surprisingly calm about it. There is absolutely nothing I can do except go through the process and see how the dice roll so I see no point in getting in a state about it. I am still hoping that it will turn out to be something minor but if not I will deal with it as it comes. To be honest it is not quite the reaction I expected to have.
    That's a very good spirit, hope it turns out well. It contrasts favourably with how I reacted in a similar situation: my self-image as somone who would care about the world up to deathbed completely dissipated, and when I reflected that there might be a by-election in Broxtowe as a result, I found I couldn't care less about the outcome. Very disillusioning, and embarrassing when it turned out to be a false alarm. You sound in a much better place mentally.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,129
    F1: from livefeed, drivers complaining of vibrations.

    From my F1 list on Twitter, apparently Alonso's had to revert to his old-spec (slower) Honda engine.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,129
    Mr. Tyndall, best of luck.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,991

    malcolmg said:

    Morning folks.

    Not read the comments yet but I am amazed at how small 'c' conservative David is being in the thread header. I really can't see of any way barring incapacity or a black swan that Corbyn will not fight the next election. Even if his poll ratings plummet he and his supporters will be able to point to the polls before 2017 GE and then show how he performed far in excess of what they predicted. He has the support base at the grass roots and he has control of the party hierarchy.

    I think he is as certain as any politician possibly could be to be fighting the next GE.

    morning Richard, have you had all clear yet
    Unfortunately not. In the words of Emperor Hirohito, the situation has developed not necessarily to my advantage. Now on the "2 week wait" for some rather more personal inspections.

    I find myself surprisingly calm about it. There is absolutely nothing I can do except go through the process and see how the dice roll so I see no point in getting in a state about it. I am still hoping that it will turn out to be something minor but if not I will deal with it as it comes. To be honest it is not quite the reaction I expected to have.
    That's a very good spirit, hope it turns out well. It contrasts favourably with how I reacted in a similar situation: my self-image as somone who would care about the world up to deathbed completely dissipated, and when I reflected that there might be a by-election in Broxtowe as a result, I found I couldn't care less about the outcome. Very disillusioning, and embarrassing when it turned out to be a false alarm. You sound in a much better place mentally.
    A very human admission Nick, it does you credit.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,991

    F1: from livefeed, drivers complaining of vibrations.

    From my F1 list on Twitter, apparently Alonso's had to revert to his old-spec (slower) Honda engine.

    Presumably not of the Beach Boys variety then?
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,397



    I appreciate this is (probably!) tongue-in-cheek but it is symptomatic of the way the Tories mishandle Corbyn through hyperbole.

    All talk of Venezuela, Cuba and Jezza being a jihadist or a dyed-in-the-wool Stalinist who will usher in the Soviet Rebublic of Britain are bound to backfire during because during any campaign the population get to see and hear him and the policies he propounds first-hand, and many like what they see.

    But tbh I don't think the Mail, Sun, Torygraph or indeed the Tory party are likely to understand that any time soon, so I suspect they will inadvertently help bring to pass the very thing they most fear.

    Strange old world, isn't it?

    Yes - the other drawback from the Tory viewpoint is that it invests heavily in the "imminent catastrophe" prediction. If Labour wins, the policies will be "surprisingly moderate" (plenty of nice things to do that won't cost the earth, cf. 1997) and the roof won't fall in, making the Dreadful Warnings hard to repeat. It's a bit like the Remain problem tbh - we predicted instant catastrophe, and have trouble persuading people that we're quite likely going to get a gradual catastrophe.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,682
    As an aside, it's good news that Trump and May seem to have come to an accord re a Free Trade deal.

    The question, to me at least, is whether it is possible to finalise something in time. (And by time, I don't mean the point at which we leave the EU, I mean the point at which the mid-terms happen and a UK-US trade deal becomes a political football between a Republican Presidency and a Democratic Congress.)

    In some ways this actually puts us in a good position: if we were the ones under the gun from a time perspective, we would be the ones needing to make all the concessions. (And concessions, by the way, means restrictions on our ability to have product - particularly agricultural - standards that restrict US imports.)

    It's also worth remembering that the US has a trade deficit with the UK. A key priority of this deal will be Donald Trump being able to say that he has signed a deal that reduces the imbalance. To my mind, that means principally means food.

    Final point: it remains to be seen what will happen with the Border Tax Adjustment. If we are exempted from it, then it's good for us, but probably bad for the world, as it signals the US's departure from the WTO. If we're not, then there's a real question about how much benefit will accrue, given the c. 15% cost added to all imports through their non tax-deductability.

    The devil, as always, is in the details.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,682
    Richard: I hope all turns out OK. I really feel for you and your family.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,862



    I appreciate this is (probably!) tongue-in-cheek but it is symptomatic of the way the Tories mishandle Corbyn through hyperbole.

    All talk of Venezuela, Cuba and Jezza being a jihadist or a dyed-in-the-wool Stalinist who will usher in the Soviet Rebublic of Britain are bound to backfire during because during any campaign the population get to see and hear him and the policies he propounds first-hand, and many like what they see.

    But tbh I don't think the Mail, Sun, Torygraph or indeed the Tory party are likely to understand that any time soon, so I suspect they will inadvertently help bring to pass the very thing they most fear.

    Strange old world, isn't it?

    Yes - the other drawback from the Tory viewpoint is that it invests heavily in the "imminent catastrophe" prediction. If Labour wins, the policies will be "surprisingly moderate" (plenty of nice things to do that won't cost the earth, cf. 1997) and the roof won't fall in, making the Dreadful Warnings hard to repeat. It's a bit like the Remain problem tbh - we predicted instant catastrophe, and have trouble persuading people that we're quite likely going to get a gradual catastrophe.
    It's the old story of the little boy who cried 'Wolf'. Ths Sun/Mail etc have done it too often, and of course fewer people than ever read the rags.

    It's slightly different with Remain. Some may have predicted Armageddon, but the general consensus was that would we actually get a short-term bost, mainly as a direct consequence of a sharp devaluation of the pound. Once the benefits of that wore off, things would begin to deteriorate progressively.

    That's pretty much what has happened so far.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,060
    Well done to the Lions for squaring the series with the All Blacks!
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,129
    Mr. L, indeed, not good vibrations.

    Just had to go AFK, I think a Mercedes has gone wonky. But if the commentators used names more often that'd be handy. Think it's Hamilton.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,060
    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, it's good news that Trump and May seem to have come to an accord re a Free Trade deal.

    The question, to me at least, is whether it is possible to finalise something in time. (And by time, I don't mean the point at which we leave the EU, I mean the point at which the mid-terms happen and a UK-US trade deal becomes a political football between a Republican Presidency and a Democratic Congress.)

    In some ways this actually puts us in a good position: if we were the ones under the gun from a time perspective, we would be the ones needing to make all the concessions. (And concessions, by the way, means restrictions on our ability to have product - particularly agricultural - standards that restrict US imports.)

    It's also worth remembering that the US has a trade deficit with the UK. A key priority of this deal will be Donald Trump being able to say that he has signed a deal that reduces the imbalance. To my mind, that means principally means food.

    Final point: it remains to be seen what will happen with the Border Tax Adjustment. If we are exempted from it, then it's good for us, but probably bad for the world, as it signals the US's departure from the WTO. If we're not, then there's a real question about how much benefit will accrue, given the c. 15% cost added to all imports through their non tax-deductability.

    The devil, as always, is in the details.

    Although the Democrats may well take the House, the GOP should hold the Senate and since it is the Senate which is really the chamber which approves a trade deal, the midterms should not impact too much on a US UK trade deal
  • Options
    619619 Posts: 1,784

    Tom Gordon:

    Surely the PM’s authority will soon be underwater and an election upon us? I’d have agreed just after the election, but now I think she might be more durable. No viable alternative leader has emerged for a start. There’s no lack of wannabes, but the timing is off. If Brexit is a car crash, do Mrs May’s rivals want to be at the wheel in 2019? Far better to let her take the blame Take over now and there might be irresistible pressure for an election. But wait until later, and that pressure will have eased off. So the thinking at Westminster is that Mrs May will be allowed to stay until Brexit, thanked for her services, and duly dumped.


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/15398498.Tom_Gordon__How_the_SNP_is_helping_May_sharpen_her_poker_game/

    That interesting snippet is most remarkable for the complete absence of any concern for the welfare of the Country.
    Yup. But then thats the Tories MO at the moment, with the referendum last year and this years election after ART 50 notification, which has lost us 2 months plus negotiation time
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,060



    I appreciate this is (probably!) tongue-in-cheek but it is symptomatic of the way the Tories mishandle Corbyn through hyperbole.

    All talk of Venezuela, Cuba and Jezza being a jihadist or a dyed-in-the-wool Stalinist who will usher in the Soviet Rebublic of Britain are bound to backfire during because during any campaign the population get to see and hear him and the policies he propounds first-hand, and many like what they see.

    But tbh I don't think the Mail, Sun, Torygraph or indeed the Tory party are likely to understand that any time soon, so I suspect they will inadvertently help bring to pass the very thing they most fear.

    Strange old world, isn't it?

    Yes - the other drawback from the Tory viewpoint is that it invests heavily in the "imminent catastrophe" prediction. If Labour wins, the policies will be "surprisingly moderate" (plenty of nice things to do that won't cost the earth, cf. 1997) and the roof won't fall in, making the Dreadful Warnings hard to repeat. It's a bit like the Remain problem tbh - we predicted instant catastrophe, and have trouble persuading people that we're quite likely going to get a gradual catastrophe.
    A combination of Brexit, leaving the single market and Corbyn socialism however would be about the worst possible combination for the UK economy
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,129
    F1: sounds like the brake disc disintegrated. Very odd. And alarming.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,682
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, it's good news that Trump and May seem to have come to an accord re a Free Trade deal.

    The question, to me at least, is whether it is possible to finalise something in time. (And by time, I don't mean the point at which we leave the EU, I mean the point at which the mid-terms happen and a UK-US trade deal becomes a political football between a Republican Presidency and a Democratic Congress.)

    In some ways this actually puts us in a good position: if we were the ones under the gun from a time perspective, we would be the ones needing to make all the concessions. (And concessions, by the way, means restrictions on our ability to have product - particularly agricultural - standards that restrict US imports.)

    It's also worth remembering that the US has a trade deficit with the UK. A key priority of this deal will be Donald Trump being able to say that he has signed a deal that reduces the imbalance. To my mind, that means principally means food.

    Final point: it remains to be seen what will happen with the Border Tax Adjustment. If we are exempted from it, then it's good for us, but probably bad for the world, as it signals the US's departure from the WTO. If we're not, then there's a real question about how much benefit will accrue, given the c. 15% cost added to all imports through their non tax-deductability.

    The devil, as always, is in the details.

    Although the Democrats may well take the House, the GOP should hold the Senate and since it is the Senate which is really the chamber which approves a trade deal, the midterms should not impact too much on a US UK trade deal
    Do you have a source for that?
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    619 said:

    Tom Gordon:

    Surely the PM’s authority will soon be underwater and an election upon us? I’d have agreed just after the election, but now I think she might be more durable. No viable alternative leader has emerged for a start. There’s no lack of wannabes, but the timing is off. If Brexit is a car crash, do Mrs May’s rivals want to be at the wheel in 2019? Far better to let her take the blame Take over now and there might be irresistible pressure for an election. But wait until later, and that pressure will have eased off. So the thinking at Westminster is that Mrs May will be allowed to stay until Brexit, thanked for her services, and duly dumped.


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/15398498.Tom_Gordon__How_the_SNP_is_helping_May_sharpen_her_poker_game/

    That interesting snippet is most remarkable for the complete absence of any concern for the welfare of the Country.
    Yup. But then thats the Tories MO at the moment, with the referendum last year and this years election after ART 50 notification, which has lost us 2 months plus negotiation time
    All of our political parties seem hell bent on destroying the country. The most stupid justification for Brexit is "You asked for it so it must be done even if it destroys lives, jobs and businesses. We have no choice."

    As somebody said on here the other day, just because you have the gun against your head does not mean you are obliged to pull the trigger.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    malcolmg said:

    Morning folks.

    Not read the comments yet but I am amazed at how small 'c' conservative David is being in the thread header. I really can't see of any way barring incapacity or a black swan that Corbyn will not fight the next election. Even if his poll ratings plummet he and his supporters will be able to point to the polls before 2017 GE and then show how he performed far in excess of what they predicted. He has the support base at the grass roots and he has control of the party hierarchy.

    I think he is as certain as any politician possibly could be to be fighting the next GE.

    morning Richard, have you had all clear yet
    Unfortunately not. In the words of Emperor Hirohito, the situation has developed not necessarily to my advantage. Now on the "2 week wait" for some rather more personal inspections.

    I find myself surprisingly calm about it. There is absolutely nothing I can do except go through the process and see how the dice roll so I see no point in getting in a state about it. I am still hoping that it will turn out to be something minor but if not I will deal with it as it comes. To be honest it is not quite the reaction I expected to have.
    I am sorry to hear it is bad news (or a lack of good news). :(
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,129
    Mrs C, those who wish for us to remain in the EU have to get a democratic mandate for that, otherwise staying in will cause serious domestic political problems.

    Having a situation where people are asked to decide on a major issue, and Parliament votes it through, and then, after an election in which the two major parties agree the decision must be respected, reversing it without any reference to the people would be a huge mistake.

    If people are taught by the political class that voting is not the way to effect change, that could lead us down a very dark path.

    A referendum or election is necessary to legitimately stop/cancel/reverse our departure from the EU. One method might be an agreed transition period of a few years and, during that, holding another vote.

    [Should stress I haven't changed my mind. But if we do end up remaining it's important such a change has a democratic mandate otherwise we're going to end up in a potentially very, very bad political situation].
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Mrs C, those who wish for us to remain in the EU have to get a democratic mandate for that, otherwise staying in will cause serious domestic political problems.

    I am not disagreeing with that Mr Dancer, but there seems a precious dearth of politicians saying "Here is what we know to date compared to how we thought it would go and it is beginning to look very dicey"

    No.. it is full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes! HMS Blighty will manage.



  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,129
    Mrs C, as with the campaigns themselves, neither the EU-philes nor those pushing ahead with our departure necessarily instil a sense of boundless confidence in their intellectual capabilities.

    That said, it's easy for us to carp from the sidelines...

    Anyway, we shall see what happens.

    F1: mostly written the pre-qualifying tosh. Just waiting for the markets on the off-chance something leaps out (doubt it will, to be honest).
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,290

    Mrs C, those who wish for us to remain in the EU have to get a democratic mandate for that, otherwise staying in will cause serious domestic political problems.

    I am not disagreeing with that Mr Dancer, but there seems a precious dearth of politicians saying "Here is what we know to date compared to how we thought it would go and it is beginning to look very dicey"

    No.. it is full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes! HMS Blighty will manage.



    I think that is because no one can say one way or another. There is a lot of sound and fury about this but in the end the basic fact is that the negotiations have only just started and all we are really seeing is positioning and PR for home market consumption from both sides.

    This is why calls to abandon Brexit are so misplaced and with a few dishonourable exceptions the politicians know it.

    This is a debate to be had at the end of the process not at the start.
  • Options
    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    malcolmg said:

    Morning folks.

    Not read the comments yet but I am amazed at how small 'c' conservative David is being in the thread header. I really can't see of any way barring incapacity or a black swan that Corbyn will not fight the next election. Even if his poll ratings plummet he and his supporters will be able to point to the polls before 2017 GE and then show how he performed far in excess of what they predicted. He has the support base at the grass roots and he has control of the party hierarchy.

    I think he is as certain as any politician possibly could be to be fighting the next GE.

    morning Richard, have you had all clear yet
    Unfortunately not. In the words of Emperor Hirohito, the situation has developed not necessarily to my advantage. Now on the "2 week wait" for some rather more personal inspections.

    I find myself surprisingly calm about it. There is absolutely nothing I can do except go through the process and see how the dice roll so I see no point in getting in a state about it. I am still hoping that it will turn out to be something minor but if not I will deal with it as it comes. To be honest it is not quite the reaction I expected to have.
    Best wishes Richard, stay positive
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,122
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,975
    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    Good news for May at the G20, Trump says a US UK trade deal will happen 'very quickly'

    @GuardianAnushka: .will be a very, very big deal a very powerful deal, great for both countries and I think we will have that done very, very quickly." (2/2)

    @pswidlicki: Obamacare will be repealed and replaced. … great health care for a fraction of the price. Immediately. Fast. Quick. twitter.com/GuardianAnushk…
    Cheap shot, fundamentally different.

    Obamacare caught up in House and Senate politics / reelection risk.

    Trade treaty only needs to be approved by the Senate - broadly favourable disposition towards the UK, not a salient issue for most voters and, given the similarities in the economic structure unlikely to lead to mass job exporting. I'd expect that a deal would be approved pretty quickly once negotiated.
    I appreciate you are talking about ratification after negotiation but if, as Trump, is claiming we conclude a very quick trade deal with the USA then it will be odds on that the deal will be very much weighted in America's favour.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @AhirShah: Big differences between Tory and Labour Brexit plans. We get to choose: throw the country under a bus, or in front of a publicly-owned train
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,290

    malcolmg said:

    Morning folks.

    Not read the comments yet but I am amazed at how small 'c' conservative David is being in the thread header. I really can't see of any way barring incapacity or a black swan that Corbyn will not fight the next election. Even if his poll ratings plummet he and his supporters will be able to point to the polls before 2017 GE and then show how he performed far in excess of what they predicted. He has the support base at the grass roots and he has control of the party hierarchy.

    I think he is as certain as any politician possibly could be to be fighting the next GE.

    morning Richard, have you had all clear yet
    Unfortunately not. In the words of Emperor Hirohito, the situation has developed not necessarily to my advantage. Now on the "2 week wait" for some rather more personal inspections.

    I find myself surprisingly calm about it. There is absolutely nothing I can do except go through the process and see how the dice roll so I see no point in getting in a state about it. I am still hoping that it will turn out to be something minor but if not I will deal with it as it comes. To be honest it is not quite the reaction I expected to have.
    I am sorry to hear it is bad news (or a lack of good news). :(
    Thanks Beverley (and Robert, MD, Nick and Malcolm below)

    I am genuinely sanguine about it at the moment. I have spent a fair bit of my life in potentially dodgy situations and have always got through them one way or another.

    I also accept that I am getting older and that this is all part and parcel of that process. The best thing I can do is carry on carrying on to make sure all is well for my family if this is a bad turn and be very happy at another great escape if it turns out to be nothing serious.

    I have always hoped I would have a positive outlook in adversity and it is somewhat comforting to find that has turned out to be the case.

    I should also point out that my life has been amazingly fortunate to date in spite of me occasionally doing some very dumb things to put a spoke in the works so I have absolutely no grounds for complaint.
  • Options
    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    Mrs C, those who wish for us to remain in the EU have to get a democratic mandate for that, otherwise staying in will cause serious domestic political problems.

    I am not disagreeing with that Mr Dancer, but there seems a precious dearth of politicians saying "Here is what we know to date compared to how we thought it would go and it is beginning to look very dicey"

    No.. it is full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes! HMS Blighty will manage.

    Bloody hell, the Private Eye cover is coming true.

    'Where to, guv?'
    '1957, and step on it'.

    (The UK set up EFTA in 1960 and left to join the EEC in 1973.)

    The tail's wagging the dog. I don't believe more than 20-25% would vote for this form of Leave in a multi-choice referendum. To avoid this, WTF wasn't the meaning of 'Leave' defined in 10-15 words on the ballot paper?

    Mogg and Bone 3, Clarke and Soubry 0.
    The rest of the political class watch incredulously from the sidelines.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,060
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, it's good news that Trump and May seem to have come to an accord re a Free Trade deal.

    The question, to me at least, is whether it is possible to finalise something in time. (And by time, I don't mean the point at which we leave the EU, I mean the point at which the mid-terms happen and a UK-US trade deal becomes a political football between a Republican Presidency and a Democratic Congress.)

    In some ways this actually puts us in a good position: if we were the ones under the gun from a time perspective, we would be the ones needing to make all the concessions. (And concessions, by the way, means restrictions on our ability to have product - particularly agricultural - standards that restrict US imports.)

    It's also worth remembering that the US has a trade deficit with the UK. A key priority of this deal will be Donald Trump being able to say that he has signed a deal that reduces the imbalance. To my mind, that means principally means food.

    Final point: it remains to be seen what will happen with the Border Tax Adjustment. If we are exempted from it, then it's good for us, but probably bad for the world, as it signals the US's departure from the WTO. If we're not, then there's a real question about how much benefit will accrue, given the c. 15% cost added to all imports through their non tax-deductability.

    The devil, as always, is in the details.

    Although the Democrats may well take the House, the GOP should hold the Senate and since it is the Senate which is really the chamber which approves a trade deal, the midterms should not impact too much on a US UK trade deal
    Do you have a source for that?
    If I remember from my A level politics it is the Senate which has to approve all US foreign treaties the President signs, which I think is what Charles also alluded to
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,290

    malcolmg said:

    Morning folks.

    Not read the comments yet but I am amazed at how small 'c' conservative David is being in the thread header. I really can't see of any way barring incapacity or a black swan that Corbyn will not fight the next election. Even if his poll ratings plummet he and his supporters will be able to point to the polls before 2017 GE and then show how he performed far in excess of what they predicted. He has the support base at the grass roots and he has control of the party hierarchy.

    I think he is as certain as any politician possibly could be to be fighting the next GE.

    morning Richard, have you had all clear yet
    Unfortunately not. In the words of Emperor Hirohito, the situation has developed not necessarily to my advantage. Now on the "2 week wait" for some rather more personal inspections.

    I find myself surprisingly calm about it. There is absolutely nothing I can do except go through the process and see how the dice roll so I see no point in getting in a state about it. I am still hoping that it will turn out to be something minor but if not I will deal with it as it comes. To be honest it is not quite the reaction I expected to have.
    Best wishes Richard, stay positive
    Cheers Nigel
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,122
    edited July 2017

    malcolmg said:

    Morning folks.

    Not read the comments yet but I am amazed at how small 'c' conservative David is being in the thread header. I really can't see of any way barring incapacity or a black swan that Corbyn will not fight the next election. Even if his poll ratings plummet he and his supporters will be able to point to the polls before 2017 GE and then show how he performed far in excess of what they predicted. He has the support base at the grass roots and he has control of the party hierarchy.

    I think he is as certain as any politician possibly could be to be fighting the next GE.

    morning Richard, have you had all clear yet
    Unfortunately not. In the words of Emperor Hirohito, the situation has developed not necessarily to my advantage. Now on the "2 week wait" for some rather more personal inspections.

    I find myself surprisingly calm about it. There is absolutely nothing I can do except go through the process and see how the dice roll so I see no point in getting in a state about it. I am still hoping that it will turn out to be something minor but if not I will deal with it as it comes. To be honest it is not quite the reaction I expected to have.
    Hope everything works out OK.

    I went through it a few years ago. The worst thing is the waiting around for appointments, tests and results.

    In the end it turned out I didn't have the "C" but I did have to receive treatment to make sure the lesion didn't develop into the "C". That was four years ago and so far all has been well.

    Main advice I can give you is whatever you do, no matter what the temptation is, do not, under no circumstances seek out the advice of Dr Google.

    Be advised by your doctors and come to PB whenever your tempted to have a Google.

    Hope it turns out to be something entirely benign (mostly it often is)

    Keep us informed.

    Good luck.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,668

    malcolmg said:

    Morning folks.

    Not read the comments yet but I am amazed at how small 'c' conservative David is being in the thread header. I really can't see of any way barring incapacity or a black swan that Corbyn will not fight the next election. Even if his poll ratings plummet he and his supporters will be able to point to the polls before 2017 GE and then show how he performed far in excess of what they predicted. He has the support base at the grass roots and he has control of the party hierarchy.

    I think he is as certain as any politician possibly could be to be fighting the next GE.

    morning Richard, have you had all clear yet
    Unfortunately not. In the words of Emperor Hirohito, the situation has developed not necessarily to my advantage. Now on the "2 week wait" for some rather more personal inspections.

    I find myself surprisingly calm about it. There is absolutely nothing I can do except go through the process and see how the dice roll so I see no point in getting in a state about it. I am still hoping that it will turn out to be something minor but if not I will deal with it as it comes. To be honest it is not quite the reaction I expected to have.
    I am sorry to hear it is bad news (or a lack of good news). :(
    Thanks Beverley (and Robert, MD, Nick and Malcolm below)

    I am genuinely sanguine about it at the moment. I have spent a fair bit of my life in potentially dodgy situations and have always got through them one way or another.

    I also accept that I am getting older and that this is all part and parcel of that process. The best thing I can do is carry on carrying on to make sure all is well for my family if this is a bad turn and be very happy at another great escape if it turns out to be nothing serious.

    I have always hoped I would have a positive outlook in adversity and it is somewhat comforting to find that has turned out to be the case.

    I should also point out that my life has been amazingly fortunate to date in spite of me occasionally doing some very dumb things to put a spoke in the works so I have absolutely no grounds for complaint.
    Haven't read about your problems, but it sounds as if you're having some difficulties. I hope everything turns out well.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,290
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, it's good news that Trump and May seem to have come to an accord re a Free Trade deal.

    The question, to me at least, is whether it is possible to finalise something in time. (And by time, I don't mean the point at which we leave the EU, I mean the point at which the mid-terms happen and a UK-US trade deal becomes a political football between a Republican Presidency and a Democratic Congress.)

    In some ways this actually puts us in a good position: if we were the ones under the gun from a time perspective, we would be the ones needing to make all the concessions. (And concessions, by the way, means restrictions on our ability to have product - particularly agricultural - standards that restrict US imports.)

    It's also worth remembering that the US has a trade deficit with the UK. A key priority of this deal will be Donald Trump being able to say that he has signed a deal that reduces the imbalance. To my mind, that means principally means food.

    Final point: it remains to be seen what will happen with the Border Tax Adjustment. If we are exempted from it, then it's good for us, but probably bad for the world, as it signals the US's departure from the WTO. If we're not, then there's a real question about how much benefit will accrue, given the c. 15% cost added to all imports through their non tax-deductability.

    The devil, as always, is in the details.

    Although the Democrats may well take the House, the GOP should hold the Senate and since it is the Senate which is really the chamber which approves a trade deal, the midterms should not impact too much on a US UK trade deal
    Do you have a source for that?
    If I remember from my A level politics it is the Senate which has to approve all US foreign treaties the President signs, which I think is what Charles also alluded to
    One of the proposals made by Hannan and Carswell in 'The Plan' was that we should move closer to the US system as far as approving both treaties and our overseas representatives was concerned. So all treaties would have to be voted on in Parliament and all new ambassadors would have to be approved by Parliamentary committee. Basically removing the Royal Prerogative in all areas. Take power from the executive and give it to the legislature.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,292

    Mrs C, those who wish for us to remain in the EU have to get a democratic mandate for that, otherwise staying in will cause serious domestic political problems.

    I am not disagreeing with that Mr Dancer, but there seems a precious dearth of politicians saying "Here is what we know to date compared to how we thought it would go and it is beginning to look very dicey"

    No.. it is full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes! HMS Blighty will manage.

    Bloody hell, the Private Eye cover is coming true.

    'Where to, guv?'
    '1957, and step on it'.

    (The UK set up EFTA in 1960 and left to join the EEC in 1973.)

    The tail's wagging the dog. I don't believe more than 20-25% would vote for this form of Leave in a multi-choice referendum. To avoid this, WTF wasn't the meaning of 'Leave' defined in 10-15 words on the ballot paper?

    Mogg and Bone 3, Clarke and Soubry 0.
    The rest of the political class watch incredulously from the sidelines.
    It never seems to cross the minds of bonkers Brexiteers that the reasons we joined all these institutions, and indeed, worked hard to expand and improve them, still remain and wont go away no matter how much they close their eyes and shout 'take back control'.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,290
    edited July 2017

    Mrs C, those who wish for us to remain in the EU have to get a democratic mandate for that, otherwise staying in will cause serious domestic political problems.

    I am not disagreeing with that Mr Dancer, but there seems a precious dearth of politicians saying "Here is what we know to date compared to how we thought it would go and it is beginning to look very dicey"

    No.. it is full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes! HMS Blighty will manage.

    Bloody hell, the Private Eye cover is coming true.

    'Where to, guv?'
    '1957, and step on it'.

    (The UK set up EFTA in 1960 and left to join the EEC in 1973.)

    The tail's wagging the dog. I don't believe more than 20-25% would vote for this form of Leave in a multi-choice referendum. To avoid this, WTF wasn't the meaning of 'Leave' defined in 10-15 words on the ballot paper?

    Mogg and Bone 3, Clarke and Soubry 0.
    The rest of the political class watch incredulously from the sidelines.
    It never seems to cross the minds of bonkers Brexiteers that the reasons we joined all these institutions, and indeed, worked hard to expand and improve them, still remain and wont go away no matter how much they close their eyes and shout 'take back control'.
    It never seems to cross the minds of Euroloons that the institution we joined in 1973 bears no resemblance to the institution we are currently trying to leave. It is like comparing Rome under the Gracchi to that under Caligula.
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    nunu said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if Tory Leavers really intended a UK out of EU, free from any constraints, led by Corbyn using that freedom to pursue a socialist economic agenda.

    You don't get this democracy thing do you?

    A Corbyn government will only last 5 years (if that).
    McDonnell isn't stupid - if they get in, there will not be sweeping revolution early enough in the first term for negative effects to be seen. The foundations will be laid for it, but I think the first term will be mild with a couple of headline socialist policies to keep the base on board. The goal will be to win at least a second term where they can really go to town.
    Corbyn has already dragged the Overton window so far to the left that Tory cabinet ministers are lining up to dump austerity.

    Give him a couple more years in opposition and five years in power and the post-Brexit UK could be a very different place.
    Yes, Cuba without the sunshine!
    I appreciate this is (probably!) tongue-in-cheek but it is symptomatic of the way the Tories mishandle Corbyn through hyperbole.

    All talk of Venezuela, Cuba and Jezza being a jihadist or a dyed-in-the-wool Stalinist who will usher in the Soviet Rebublic of Britain are bound to backfire during because during any campaign the population get to see and hear him and the policies he propounds first-hand, and many like what they see.

    But tbh I don't think the Mail, Sun, Torygraph or indeed the Tory party are likely to understand that any time soon, so I suspect they will inadvertently help bring to pass the very thing they most fear.

    Strange old world, isn't it?

    Well if the voters vote for Corbyn socialism at the second time of asking (having narrowly rejected it the first time) at least they cannot complain they were not warned!
    I think you'll find they can.
  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,355
    Mr Tyndall,

    Best wishes for the future.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,069

    malcolmg said:

    Morning folks.

    Not read the comments yet but I am amazed at how small 'c' conservative David is being in the thread header. I really can't see of any way barring incapacity or a black swan that Corbyn will not fight the next election. Even if his poll ratings plummet he and his supporters will be able to point to the polls before 2017 GE and then show how he performed far in excess of what they predicted. He has the support base at the grass roots and he has control of the party hierarchy.

    I think he is as certain as any politician possibly could be to be fighting the next GE.

    morning Richard, have you had all clear yet
    Unfortunately not. In the words of Emperor Hirohito, the situation has developed not necessarily to my advantage. Now on the "2 week wait" for some rather more personal inspections.

    I find myself surprisingly calm about it. There is absolutely nothing I can do except go through the process and see how the dice roll so I see no point in getting in a state about it. I am still hoping that it will turn out to be something minor but if not I will deal with it as it comes. To be honest it is not quite the reaction I expected to have.
    I am sorry to hear it is bad news (or a lack of good news). :(
    Thanks Beverley (and Robert, MD, Nick and Malcolm below)

    I am genuinely sanguine about it at the moment. I have spent a fair bit of my life in potentially dodgy situations and have always got through them one way or another.

    I also accept that I am getting older and that this is all part and parcel of that process. The best thing I can do is carry on carrying on to make sure all is well for my family if this is a bad turn and be very happy at another great escape if it turns out to be nothing serious.

    I have always hoped I would have a positive outlook in adversity and it is somewhat comforting to find that has turned out to be the case.

    I should also point out that my life has been amazingly fortunate to date in spite of me occasionally doing some very dumb things to put a spoke in the works so I have absolutely no grounds for complaint.
    Very sorry to hear you're experiencing health problems. I cannot agree with you that there's absolutely nothing you can do. Our bodies are amazing machines and programmed to heal. Do make sure you're doing everything 'complimentary' to support your body as well as going through the recommended medical process. All the very best.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,060

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    nunu said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if Tory Leavers really intended a UK out of EU, free from any constraints, led by Corbyn using that freedom to pursue a socialist economic agenda.

    You don't get this democracy thing do you?

    A Corbyn government will only last 5 years (if that).
    McDonnell isn't stupid - if they get in, there will not be sweeping revolution early enough in the first term for negative effects to be seen. The foundations will be laid for it, but I think the first term will be mild with a couple of headline socialist policies to keep the base on board. The goal will be to win at least a second term where they can really go to town.
    Corbyn has already dragged the Overton window so far to the left that Tory cabinet ministers are lining up to dump austerity.

    Give him a couple more years in opposition and five years in power and the post-Brexit UK could be a very different place.
    Yes, Cuba without the sunshine!
    I appreciate this is (probably!) tongue-in-cheek but it is symptomatic of the way the Tories mishandle Corbyn through hyperbole.

    All talk of Venezuela, Cuba and Jezza being a jihadist or a dyed-in-the-wool Stalinist who will usher in the Soviet Rebublic of Britain are bound to backfire during because during any campaign the population get to see and hear him and the policies he propounds first-hand, and many like what they see.

    But tbh I don't think the Mail, Sun, Torygraph or indeed the Tory party are likely to understand that any time soon, so I suspect they will inadvertently help bring to pass the very thing they most fear.

    Strange old world, isn't it?

    Well if the voters vote for Corbyn socialism at the second time of asking (having narrowly rejected it the first time) at least they cannot complain they were not warned!
    I think you'll find they can.
    Well if they do and they want to protest against the Corbyn government the only viable alternative would be the Tory opposition
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,060

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, it's good news that Trump and May seem to have come to an accord re a Free Trade deal.

    The question, to me at least, is whether it is possible to finalise something in time. (And by time, I don't mean the point at which we leave the EU, I mean the point at which the mid-terms happen and a UK-US trade deal becomes a political football between a Republican Presidency and a Democratic Congress.)

    In some ways this actually puts us in a good position: if we were the ones under the gun from a time perspective, we would be the ones needing to make all the concessions. (And concessions, by the way, means restrictions on our ability to have product - particularly agricultural - standards that restrict US imports.)

    It's also worth remembering that the US has a trade deficit with the UK. A key priority of this deal will be Donald Trump being able to say that he has signed a deal that reduces the imbalance. To my mind, that means principally means food.

    Final point: it remains to be seen what will happen with the Border Tax Adjustment. If we are exempted from it, then it's good for us, but probably bad for the world, as it signals the US's departure from the WTO. If we're not, then there's a real question about how much benefit will accrue, given the c. 15% cost added to all imports through their non tax-deductability.

    The devil, as always, is in the details.

    Although the Democrats may well take the House, the GOP should hold the Senate and since it is the Senate which is really the chamber which approves a trade deal, the midterms should not impact too much on a US UK trade deal
    Do you have a source for that?
    If I remember from my A level politics it is the Senate which has to approve all US foreign treaties the President signs, which I think is what Charles also alluded to
    One of the proposals made by Hannan and Carswell in 'The Plan' was that we should move closer to the US system as far as approving both treaties and our overseas representatives was concerned. So all treaties would have to be voted on in Parliament and all new ambassadors would have to be approved by Parliamentary committee. Basically removing the Royal Prerogative in all areas. Take power from the executive and give it to the legislature.
    Sounds sensible and would improve their legitimacy. Best wishes on the medical front too!
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,129
    edited July 2017
    F1: pre-qualifying ramble up here:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/07/austria-pre-qualifying-2017.html

    Edited extra bit: anyway, I must be off.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,203
    I'd like to add my best wishes to Richard T.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Mrs C, those who wish for us to remain in the EU have to get a democratic mandate for that, otherwise staying in will cause serious domestic political problems.

    I am not disagreeing with that Mr Dancer, but there seems a precious dearth of politicians saying "Here is what we know to date compared to how we thought it would go and it is beginning to look very dicey"

    No.. it is full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes! HMS Blighty will manage.

    Bloody hell, the Private Eye cover is coming true.

    'Where to, guv?'
    '1957, and step on it'.

    (The UK set up EFTA in 1960 and left to join the EEC in 1973.)

    The tail's wagging the dog. I don't believe more than 20-25% would vote for this form of Leave in a multi-choice referendum. To avoid this, WTF wasn't the meaning of 'Leave' defined in 10-15 words on the ballot paper?

    Mogg and Bone 3, Clarke and Soubry 0.
    The rest of the political class watch incredulously from the sidelines.
    image
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,375
    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Morning folks.

    Not read the comments yet but I am amazed at how small 'c' conservative David is being in the thread header. I really can't see of any way barring incapacity or a black swan that Corbyn will not fight the next election. Even if his poll ratings plummet he and his supporters will be able to point to the polls before 2017 GE and then show how he performed far in excess of what they predicted. He has the support base at the grass roots and he has control of the party hierarchy.

    I think he is as certain as any politician possibly could be to be fighting the next GE.

    morning Richard, have you had all clear yet
    Unfortunately not. In the words of Emperor Hirohito, the situation has developed not necessarily to my advantage. Now on the "2 week wait" for some rather more personal inspections.

    I find myself surprisingly calm about it. There is absolutely nothing I can do except go through the process and see how the dice roll so I see no point in getting in a state about it. I am still hoping that it will turn out to be something minor but if not I will deal with it as it comes. To be honest it is not quite the reaction I expected to have.
    Hope everything works out OK.

    I went through it a few years ago. The worst thing is the waiting around for appointments, tests and results.

    In the end it turned out I didn't have the "C" but I did have to receive treatment to make sure the lesion didn't develop into the "C". That was four years ago and so far all has been well.

    Main advice I can give you is whatever you do, no matter what the temptation is, do not, under no circumstances seek out the advice of Dr Google.

    Be advised by your doctors and come to PB whenever your tempted to have a Google.

    Hope it turns out to be something entirely benign (mostly it often is)

    Keep us informed.

    Good luck.
    Had one bout with The Big C 6 years ago, was operated on and, aftrer five years of surveillance, had a ‘clearance’ letter last May. A month later my GP said that she thought I might well have it somewhere else.. And, after tests and explorations, one of which went very wrong, yes I have. So I’m about to start nine weeks of radiotherapy. However the consulatnt says my chances of seeing my nineties will be significantly enhanced, so hey ho, off we go.

    So, whatever you do, Mr T, stay positive. Waiting is difficult but the NHS is very good, and, IME, the staff very supportive and encouraging.
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Anyway, sorry for the brief appearance. I need to do more Brexit-proofing. C U all later :D
  • Options
    stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    Trouble with betting is that its based on received wisdom and orthodoxies. Not so long ago, the received wisdom was that Theresa May was queen of all she surveys. Now the received wisdom is that Corbyn is the coming king......................
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,682
    @Charles and @HYUFD, my understanding is that treaties requires the assent of two thirds of the Senate,
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,390



    I appreciate this is (probably!) tongue-in-cheek but it is symptomatic of the way the Tories mishandle Corbyn through hyperbole.

    All talk of Venezuela, Cuba and Jezza being a jihadist or a dyed-in-the-wool Stalinist who will usher in the Soviet Rebublic of Britain are bound to backfire during because during any campaign the population get to see and hear him and the policies he propounds first-hand, and many like what they see.

    But tbh I don't think the Mail, Sun, Torygraph or indeed the Tory party are likely to understand that any time soon, so I suspect they will inadvertently help bring to pass the very thing they most fear.

    Strange old world, isn't it?

    Yes - the other drawback from the Tory viewpoint is that it invests heavily in the "imminent catastrophe" prediction. If Labour wins, the policies will be "surprisingly moderate" (plenty of nice things to do that won't cost the earth, cf. 1997) and the roof won't fall in, making the Dreadful Warnings hard to repeat. It's a bit like the Remain problem tbh - we predicted instant catastrophe, and have trouble persuading people that we're quite likely going to get a gradual catastrophe.
    It's the old story of the little boy who cried 'Wolf'. Ths Sun/Mail etc have done it too often, and of course fewer people than ever read the rags.

    It's slightly different with Remain. Some may have predicted Armageddon, but the general consensus was that would we actually get a short-term bost, mainly as a direct consequence of a sharp devaluation of the pound. Once the benefits of that wore off, things would begin to deteriorate progressively.

    That's pretty much what has happened so far.
    'Some' being the then government and the majority of the political and economic establishment.

    Brexit (and Corbyn as well) is merely a consequence of the political and economic problems Britain is in and the inability of the establishment to resolve them.

    For example there were people voting in this year's elections (and last year's too for that matter) who have never been alive when Britain had a single month of trade surplus.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,390
    stevef said:

    Trouble with betting is that its based on received wisdom and orthodoxies. Not so long ago, the received wisdom was that Theresa May was queen of all she surveys. Now the received wisdom is that Corbyn is the coming king......................

    The Corbogasm has replaced the Maygasm of the winter and spring.

    Before that there was the brief Claggasm of April 2010 and the Gordogasm of summer 2007.

    All were a mystery to me.

    As I'm sure will the ones in the future.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,290

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Morning folks.

    Not read the comments yet but I am amazed at how small 'c' conservative David is being in the thread header. I really can't see of any way barring incapacity or a black swan that Corbyn will not fight the next election. Even if his poll ratings plummet he and his supporters will be able to point to the polls before 2017 GE and then show how he performed far in excess of what they predicted. He has the support base at the grass roots and he has control of the party hierarchy.

    I think he is as certain as any politician possibly could be to be fighting the next GE.

    morning Richard, have you had all clear yet
    Unfortunately not. In the words of Emperor Hirohito, the situation has developed not necessarily to my advantage. Now on the "2 week wait" for some rather more personal inspections.

    I find myself surprisingly calm about it. There is absolutely nothing I can do except go through the process and see how the dice roll so I see no point in getting in a state about it. I am still hoping that it will turn out to be something minor but if not I will deal with it as it comes. To be honest it is not quite the reaction I expected to have.
    Hope everything works out OK.

    I went through it a few years ago. The worst thing is the waiting around for appointments, tests and results.

    In the end it turned out I didn't have the "C" but I did have to receive treatment to make sure the lesion didn't develop into the "C". That was four years ago and so far all has been well.

    Main advice I can give you is whatever you do, no matter what the temptation is, do not, under no circumstances seek out the advice of Dr Google.

    Be advised by your doctors and come to PB whenever your tempted to have a Google.

    Hope it turns out to be something entirely benign (mostly it often is)

    Keep us informed.

    Good luck.
    Had one bout with The Big C 6 years ago, was operated on and, aftrer five years of surveillance, had a ‘clearance’ letter last May. A month later my GP said that she thought I might well have it somewhere else.. And, after tests and explorations, one of which went very wrong, yes I have. So I’m about to start nine weeks of radiotherapy. However the consulatnt says my chances of seeing my nineties will be significantly enhanced, so hey ho, off we go.

    So, whatever you do, Mr T, stay positive. Waiting is difficult but the NHS is very good, and, IME, the staff very supportive and encouraging.
    Cheers Mr Cole. Hope all goes well for you and definitely hope we are both still here debating in 20 years time.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,122
    edited July 2017



    Had one bout with The Big C 6 years ago, was operated on and, aftrer five years of surveillance, had a ‘clearance’ letter last May. A month later my GP said that she thought I might well have it somewhere else.. And, after tests and explorations, one of which went very wrong, yes I have. So I’m about to start nine weeks of radiotherapy. However the consulatnt says my chances of seeing my nineties will be significantly enhanced, so hey ho, off we go.

    So, whatever you do, Mr T, stay positive. Waiting is difficult but the NHS is very good, and, IME, the staff very supportive and encouraging.

    That's very unlucky. Is the new "C" a recurrence from the original "C"? Or something entirely separate?

    I've heard stories of people who go 15-20 years and then get recurrence from their original bout of Cancer. How/why those cancerous cells hide from the immune system and original treatment, go dormant and then re-activate years or even decades later is a real mystery.

    Good luck with your treatment. Hope all goes well for you. :)
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    malcolmg said:

    Morning folks.

    Not read the comments yet but I am amazed at how small 'c' conservative David is being in the thread header. I really can't see of any way barring incapacity or a black swan that Corbyn will not fight the next election. Even if his poll ratings plummet he and his supporters will be able to point to the polls before 2017 GE and then show how he performed far in excess of what they predicted. He has the support base at the grass roots and he has control of the party hierarchy.

    I think he is as certain as any politician possibly could be to be fighting the next GE.

    morning Richard, have you had all clear yet
    Unfortunately not. In the words of Emperor Hirohito, the situation has developed not necessarily to my advantage. Now on the "2 week wait" for some rather more personal inspections.

    I find myself surprisingly calm about it. There is absolutely nothing I can do except go through the process and see how the dice roll so I see no point in getting in a state about it. I am still hoping that it will turn out to be something minor but if not I will deal with it as it comes. To be honest it is not quite the reaction I expected to have.
    I am sorry to hear it is bad news (or a lack of good news). :(
    Thanks Beverley (and Robert, MD, Nick and Malcolm below)

    I am genuinely sanguine about it at the moment. I have spent a fair bit of my life in potentially dodgy situations and have always got through them one way or another.

    I also accept that I am getting older and that this is all part and parcel of that process. The best thing I can do is carry on carrying on to make sure all is well for my family if this is a bad turn and be very happy at another great escape if it turns out to be nothing serious.

    I have always hoped I would have a positive outlook in adversity and it is somewhat comforting to find that has turned out to be the case.

    I should also point out that my life has been amazingly fortunate to date in spite of me occasionally doing some very dumb things to put a spoke in the works so I have absolutely no grounds for complaint.
    It is never too late too late to look after your health, but there are many false positives in the 2 week wait has a lot of false positives, so room for optimism.

    Best wishes so we can spar politically for many years to come!
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,290
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, it's good news that Trump and May seem to have come to an accord re a Free Trade deal.

    The question, to me at least, is whether it is possible to finalise something in time. (And by time, I don't mean the point at which we leave the EU, I mean the point at which the mid-terms happen and a UK-US trade deal becomes a political football between a Republican Presidency and a Democratic Congress.)

    In some ways this actually puts us in a good position: if we were the ones under the gun from a time perspective, we would be the ones needing to make all the concessions. (And concessions, by the way, means restrictions on our ability to have product - particularly agricultural - standards that restrict US imports.)

    It's also worth remembering that the US has a trade deficit with the UK. A key priority of this deal will be Donald Trump being able to say that he has signed a deal that reduces the imbalance. To my mind, that means principally means food.

    Final point: it remains to be seen what will happen with the Border Tax Adjustment. If we are exempted from it, then it's good for us, but probably bad for the world, as it signals the US's departure from the WTO. If we're not, then there's a real question about how much benefit will accrue, given the c. 15% cost added to all imports through their non tax-deductability.

    The devil, as always, is in the details.

    Although the Democrats may well take the House, the GOP should hold the Senate and since it is the Senate which is really the chamber which approves a trade deal, the midterms should not impact too much on a US UK trade deal
    Do you have a source for that?
    If I remember from my A level politics it is the Senate which has to approve all US foreign treaties the President signs, which I think is what Charles also alluded to
    One of the proposals made by Hannan and Carswell in 'The Plan' was that we should move closer to the US system as far as approving both treaties and our overseas representatives was concerned. So all treaties would have to be voted on in Parliament and all new ambassadors would have to be approved by Parliamentary committee. Basically removing the Royal Prerogative in all areas. Take power from the executive and give it to the legislature.
    Sounds sensible and would improve their legitimacy. Best wishes on the medical front too!
    I have just reread 'The Plan again a couple of weeks ago and there is a huge amount in it that I think would benefit the UK along with some stuff that had already been introduced. Open Primaries and Recall are two more points I think are worth pursuing. Also tighter limits on the Government payroll.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,012
    Best wishes to Richard T and OldKingCole, thinking of you both.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,375

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Morning folks.

    Not read the comments yet but I am amazed at how small 'c' conservative David is being in the thread header. I really can't see of any way barring incapacity or a black swan that Corbyn will not fight the next election. Even if his poll ratings plummet he and his supporters will be able to point to the polls before 2017 GE and then show how he performed far in excess of what they predicted. He has the support base at the grass roots and he has control of the party hierarchy.

    I think he is as certain as any politician possibly could be to be fighting the next GE.

    morning Richard, have you had all clear yet
    Unfortunately not. In the words of Emperor Hirohito, the situation has developed not necessarily to my advantage. Now on the "2 week wait" for some rather more personal inspections.

    I find myself surprisingly calm about it. There is absolutely nothing I can do except go through the process and see how the dice roll so I see no point in getting in a state about it. I am still hoping that it will turn out to be something minor but if not I will deal with it as it comes. To be honest it is not quite the reaction I expected to have.
    Hope everything works out OK.

    I went through it a few years ago. The worst thing is the waiting around for appointments, tests and results.

    In the end it turned out I didn't have the "C" but I did have to receive treatment to make sure the lesion didn't develop into the "C". That was four years ago and so far all has been well.


    Be advised by your doctors and come to PB whenever your tempted to have a Google.

    Hope it turns out to be something entirely benign (mostly it often is)

    Keep us informed.

    Good luck.
    Had one bout with The Big C 6 years ago, was operated on and, aftrer five years of surveillance, had a ‘clearance’ letter last May. A month later my GP said that she thought I might well have it somewhere else.. And, after tests and explorations, one of which went very wrong, yes I have. So I’m about to start nine weeks of radiotherapy. However the consulatnt says my chances of seeing my nineties will be significantly enhanced, so hey ho, off we go.

    So, whatever you do, Mr T, stay positive. Waiting is difficult but the NHS is very good, and, IME, the staff very supportive and encouraging.
    Cheers Mr Cole. Hope all goes well for you and definitely hope we are both still here debating in 20 years time.
    Thanks Mr T; however if I’m still here shortly afteer my 99th birthday.........
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,290
    GIN1138 said:



    Had one bout with The Big C 6 years ago, was operated on and, aftrer five years of surveillance, had a ‘clearance’ letter last May. A month later my GP said that she thought I might well have it somewhere else.. And, after tests and explorations, one of which went very wrong, yes I have. So I’m about to start nine weeks of radiotherapy. However the consulatnt says my chances of seeing my nineties will be significantly enhanced, so hey ho, off we go.

    So, whatever you do, Mr T, stay positive. Waiting is difficult but the NHS is very good, and, IME, the staff very supportive and encouraging.

    That's very unlucky. Is the new "C" a recurrence from the original "C"? Or something entirely separate?

    I've heard stories of people who go 15-20 years and then get recurrence from their original bout of Cancer. How/why those cancerous cells hide from the immune system and original treatment, go dormant and then re-activate years or even decades later is a real mystery.

    Good luck with your treatment. Hope all goes well for you. :)
    I am always heartened by my brother in law's mother. She has had non hodgekins lymphoma since the late 1980s. She had had regular secondaries which needed various types of treatment and in spite of it all is still with us and enjoying life 30 years later.
  • Options
    DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093
    edited July 2017
    Corbyn is like a fidget spinner for the Labour party; you won't throw it away for years, but by the time you do it will not have been cool for a long while.

    See also loom bands for TMay (2016) or Angry Birds merchandise for Clegg (2010).

    Edit: best wishes Richard T and OKC
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,290



    Thanks Mr T; however if I’m still here shortly after my 99th birthday.........

    We will be sat around gping on about how it is nowhere near as good as it was back in the olden days. :)
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,375
    GIN1138 said:



    Had one bout with The Big C 6 years ago, was operated on and, aftrer five years of surveillance, had a ‘clearance’ letter last May. A month later my GP said that she thought I might well have it somewhere else.. And, after tests and explorations, one of which went very wrong, yes I have. So I’m about to start nine weeks of radiotherapy. However the consulatnt says my chances of seeing my nineties will be significantly enhanced, so hey ho, off we go.

    So, whatever you do, Mr T, stay positive. Waiting is difficult but the NHS is very good, and, IME, the staff very supportive and encouraging.

    That's very unlucky. Is the new "C" a recurrence from the original "C"? Or something entirely separate?

    I've heard stories of people who go 15-20 years and then get recurrence from their original bout of Cancer. How/why those cancerous cells hide from the immune system and original treatment, go dormant and then re-activate years or even decades later is a real mystery.

    Good luck with your treatment. Hope all goes well for you. :)

    Many thanks. No, it’s in a different area, and as far as anyone can tell, or with any reasonable degree of probability, they’re entirely unrelated.

    There’s a lot of work being done on cancer at almost a molecular level and significant progress is being made, on almost a daily basis.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,375



    Thanks Mr T; however if I’m still here shortly after my 99th birthday.........

    We will be sat around gping on about how it is nowhere near as good as it was back in the olden days. :)
    I wonder how accurate polling will be? And will we still have AV threads!
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,122
    edited July 2017



    It is never too late too late to look after your health, but there are many false positives in the 2 week wait has a lot of false positives, so room for optimism.

    Best wishes so we can spar politically for many years to come!

    I was completely unconcerned when I was put on the two week referral by my dentist (I had a large white patch in the mouth) as I thought it was totally trivial not being a smoker and not much of a drinker.

    The appointment with the specialist soon bucked my ideas up as the first thing he did was start examining my neck for possible metastasis to lymph nodes and booked me in for an urgent biopsy

    The worst part of the whole experience I found was between biopsy and receiving a letter from the hospital some four weeks further on telling me I had to go back to discuss the results and treatment options in another six weeks.

    I knew then that I didn't have the "C" as they wouldn't leave someone for weeks and weeks with cancer... But for those four weeks from biopsy to the letter coming I had no idea what was happening at all.

    Definitely thought the communication could have been better... Though my actual treatment and care right up to removal of the lesion and regular follow-up appointments was excellent.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,060

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, it's good news that Trump and May seem to have come to an accord re a Free Trade deal.

    The question, to me at least, is whether it is possible to finalise something in time. (And by time, I don't mean the point at which we leave the EU, I mean the point at which the mid-terms happen and he has signed a deal that reduces the imbalance. To my mind, that means principally means food.

    Final point: it remains to be seen what will happen with the Border Tax Adjustment. If we are exempted from it, then it's good for us, but probably bad for the world, as it signals the US's departure from the WTO. If we're not, then there's a real question about how much benefit will accrue, given the c. 15% cost added to all imports through their non tax-deductability.

    The devil, as always, is in the details.

    Although the Democrats may well take the House, the GOP should hold the Senate and since it is the Senate which is really the chamber which approves a trade deal, the midterms should not impact too much on a US UK trade deal
    Do you have a source for that?
    If I remember from my A level politics it is the Senate which has to approve all US foreign treaties the President signs, which I think is what Charles also alluded to
    One of the proposals made by Hannan and Carswell in 'The Plan' was that we should move closer to the US system as far as approving both treaties and our overseas representatives was concerned. So all treaties would have to be voted on in Parliament and all new ambassadors would have to be approved by Parliamentary committee. Basically removing the Royal Prerogative in all areas. Take power from the executive and give it to the legislature.
    Sounds sensible and would improve their legitimacy. Best wishes on the medical front too!
    I have just reread 'The Plan again a couple of weeks ago and there is a huge amount in it that I think would benefit the UK along with some stuff that had already been introduced. Open Primaries and Recall are two more points I think are worth pursuing. Also tighter limits on the Government payroll.
    I would certainly support an extension of Primaries whether Open or Closed
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,290



    Thanks Mr T; however if I’m still here shortly after my 99th birthday.........

    We will be sat around gping on about how it is nowhere near as good as it was back in the olden days. :)
    I wonder how accurate polling will be? And will we still have AV threads!
    One thing we can be sure of is TSE's music and dress tastes will not have improved. :)
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,122

    GIN1138 said:



    Had one bout with The Big C 6 years ago, was operated on and, aftrer five years of surveillance, had a ‘clearance’ letter last May. A month later my GP said that she thought I might well have it somewhere else.. And, after tests and explorations, one of which went very wrong, yes I have. So I’m about to start nine weeks of radiotherapy. However the consulatnt says my chances of seeing my nineties will be significantly enhanced, so hey ho, off we go.

    So, whatever you do, Mr T, stay positive. Waiting is difficult but the NHS is very good, and, IME, the staff very supportive and encouraging.

    That's very unlucky. Is the new "C" a recurrence from the original "C"? Or something entirely separate?

    I've heard stories of people who go 15-20 years and then get recurrence from their original bout of Cancer. How/why those cancerous cells hide from the immune system and original treatment, go dormant and then re-activate years or even decades later is a real mystery.

    Good luck with your treatment. Hope all goes well for you. :)

    Many thanks. No, it’s in a different area, and as far as anyone can tell, or with any reasonable degree of probability, they’re entirely unrelated.

    There’s a lot of work being done on cancer at almost a molecular level and significant progress is being made, on almost a daily basis.
    Ah right. Yes, it is amazing how much progress is being made in the cancer field.

    Good luck. :)
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