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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn is a survivor: back him to last until 2019 at least
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn is a survivor: back him to last until 2019 at least
With so much focus on whether Theresa May will survive – or perhaps more accurately, for how long – it’s an opportune time to have a look at the same bet on the other side. After all, the value is often there to be had when people aren’t paying enough attention.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/06/27/what-the-qatar-crisis-shows-about-the-middle-east/?utm_term=.5217af478dff
How Singapore tackles housing. Some good aspects, some bad. I quite like the quotas to stop segregation for public housing.
https://www.economist.com/news/asia/21724856-subsidies-are-irresistiblebut-come-social-controls-why-80-singaporeans-live?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/why80ofsingaporeansliveingovernmentbuiltflats
Yep. I was saying that before the GE. He has a certain amount of stickability that is admirable.
The UK will hesitate on signing up to anything, because the charges/conditions are likely to be enormous, so it seems set for a "no deal" hard Brexit on 29/3/2019. The clock has already been ticking for over 3 months and no progress is being made, nor does there seem much prospect of any meaningful negotiations.
It will be on the Tories' watch, and Labour will mop up when the ramshackle tottering MayDup government collapses in 2019 or soon after. I don't expect any resuscitation of the Lie Downs post Brexit.
F1: surprisingly, Mercedes have had to change Hamilton's gearbox. That's a five place grid penalty, so he'll probably start 6th.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/40535533
There is a reason that the governing party gets 80%, it works.
On pace, that should happen. However, I decided to run through the races so far and it almost never has. One Red Bull has failed at most races, and Bottas and Raikkonen occasionally get tangled up. And it only takes one of the six to fail and the bet doesn't come off.
I was aware, of course, of the dodgy reliability of Red Bull but hadn't clocked just how poor it's been on a race-by-race basis.
Anyway, I'd only back that bet with a hedge for the Red Bull drivers, and personally I'm leaving it alone, but it's interesting how the impression one has doesn't necessarily tally with reality.
Utterly OT: Pillars of Eternity is coming out for the PS4 late next month. Might give it a look.
Qatar is going to need to find a way forward soon though, the blockade from the rest of the GCC is hurting them a lot, with their airline losing business and imports of food and supplies much more expensive as they're having to charter boats. Lots of middle-class expats are planning on getting out quickly if normality isn't restored soon.
Not really relevant to that bet but Hamilton will have a five place grid penalty, for an unscheduled gearbox change.
Heard about Hamilton. Interesting odds, Vettel 2.87, Hamilton 3 for the win (Ladbrokes).
There are rumours it could be a wet wave too, which is always good to shake things up a little. That said, Lewis is value at 3 for any race I'd have thought, even if he starts 6th or 7th.
Verstappen, Hulkenberg and maybe Alonso could benefit disproportionately if it's very wet.
...
May is planning two interventions, including a speech on a date yet to be set, in an attempt to drag the conversation back to her pre-election agenda of economic and social reform to make Brexit work for ordinary families, according to a senior government official familiar with the plan.
The PM wants to “put a bracket around the campaign” and move on, the official said.
The move is likely to be seen as an attempt to reassert “Mayism” in the face of Jeremy Corbyn’s left-wing populism and pressure from within the Conservative Party to adopt more traditional free-market policies.
...
Inside Downing Street, there is concern that the election result forced the Brexit debate back onto questions of process — principally whether to go for a hard or a soft Brexit — which they hoped to have put to bed after outlining plans for a clean break with Brussels, leaving the single market and the customs union.
May has insisted that her plan to negotiate a “deep and special partnership” with the EU within the next 18 months — including a free-trade deal, customs agreement and “implementation phase” — remains intact."
----
What happens when there's no “deep and special partnership” with the EU within 18 months, as there surely won't be? We're not talking the dim and distant future?
http://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-may-relaunch-after-election-fiasco-conservatives/
I am going to try logging off then on again with the 'remember me' set to no. So if you never see Benpointer again you know it didn't work. (But look out for Benpointer2.)
I imagine the speeches will.be savaged in the press and undermined within her own party next week. The sharks have smelt the blood in the water...
I do too. Negotiations would go much better without the jingoist bullshit.
Still it's a first-world problem I guess. I'll console myself that at least the country is in great shape and headed in the right direction. Oh...
Downing Street are in full on Comical Ali.
The latest Corbyn position is "all the benefits of the single market"
Had the bonus of Stuart Broad's innings too
A Corbyn government will only last 5 years (if that).
The majority of voters also voted for parties that support granting unilateral rights to EU citizens, yet May hasn't offered that - you can't cherry pick which parts of the opposition manifestos count and which don't.
Finally, if you want to use that 85% figure, you need to have a cross party Brexit - why did the tories not approach Labour and say "let's form a national Brexit government as we are clearly aligned on this issue". They had the chance and decided not to.
Give him a couple more years in opposition and five years in power and the post-Brexit UK could be a very different place.
Like Trump when he said " everyone will have great healthcare".
Trump was very careful not to say Medicare/aid for all or insurance for all just that it will be "great".
Now that he has won power he is stripping healthcare from 24 million people and they will get "great" healthcare from A&E, and Corbyn needs to come out of the single market and customs union in order to give state aid to the re-nationalised companies so will say whatever he needs to for now to keep labour REMAINERS on side before betraying them. You need to read Corbyn's words very very carefully. He is very dangerous.
Anyone who thinks Corbyn and Mcdonnell are soft Brexiteers haven't been paying enough attention.
Also I expect emigration will become a hot topic in Britain before the first five years is up.
People who think he will be "found out" over his multitudinous positioning on Brexit are kidding themselves. It's this month's version of the hope that the voters will fuck him off over his longstanding PIRA fan boi antics.
It only takes one old fashioned England 2nd innings collapse after all.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ugly_Rumours_(band)
They are 240 behind with only De Kock to come, I cannot really envisage them being in a winning position to be able to trade out of, just my opinion though
Laying the draw at 4.2 looks the best bet to me
(I agreed with HYUFD?!- the end of the world must be nigh!)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40540340
All talk of Venezuela, Cuba and Jezza being a jihadist or a dyed-in-the-wool Stalinist who will usher in the Soviet Rebublic of Britain are bound to backfire during because during any campaign the population get to see and hear him and the policies he propounds first-hand, and many like what they see.
But tbh I don't think the Mail, Sun, Torygraph or indeed the Tory party are likely to understand that any time soon, so I suspect they will inadvertently help bring to pass the very thing they most fear.
Strange old world, isn't it?
@pswidlicki: Obamacare will be repealed and replaced. … great health care for a fraction of the price. Immediately. Fast. Quick. twitter.com/GuardianAnushk…
My approach to a trade deal with the US would be multi-phased, starting with services and high value goods with international standards (cars, planes, microchips) before moving to the trickier items like agriculture and pharmaceuticals later.
Obamacare caught up in House and Senate politics / reelection risk.
Trade treaty only needs to be approved by the Senate - broadly favourable disposition towards the UK, not a salient issue for most voters and, given the similarities in the economic structure unlikely to lead to mass job exporting. I'd expect that a deal would be approved pretty quickly once negotiated.