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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The scale of LAB’s lead in the parliament’s first polls is unp
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The scale of LAB’s lead in the parliament’s first polls is unprecedented
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UKIP has finally disappeared from the polls?! Great news.
"This is highly unusual and almost unprecedented. Almost always the first polls after a general election see the winner doing better than it did in the voting on the day"
And so he is.....
I note that the Lib Dems have gone down. No doubt due to Tim Farron's departure and the lack of leadership the top of the party.
Hasn't been updated in 11 days.....
Here it has been lots of stories about how she managed to lose the unlosable election, how she has lost her majority, what a problem this is for the UK in negotiating with Europe, the on/off deals with the DUP, when is May going to stand down, zombie responses to any tragedy etc etc.
In some respects it is surprising that the Tory vote has held up as well as it has. My guess is that these are the people who fear a Corbyn government rather than any particular support or enthusiasm for May.
I’m reasonably sure that if Heath had managed to stagger on in Feb 74 he’d have suffered the same problems.
Better things to do.
PM Jezza? Corbyn's manifesto looks harmless, it will increase the debt and deficit but no one cares anymore. We may lose a large company or two, but Brexit will be blamed, as it will for all manner of bad things.
This heroic follower of Trotsky will be the great leader, fighting against the pygmies who seek to restore evil capitalism. Anyone who speaks out will be shamed by the proletariat on twitter. Life will be good, citizens. and you'd better believe it.
Its stands there, a blackened mass , its just awful. If anyone cheapskate on materials a la Towering Inferno or dodged the specifications, they deserve to be prosecuted.
On topic, Mrs May is crap, like Gordon Brown, she should go, every day she stays, she is buying the Tories two days in opposition.
We need small government, far fewer politicians and bureaucrats and less legislation.
They flourished a little among their own group but always ended up splitting. Hippie-dom and flower power lingered on for a while. Never thought then that it would come back into fashion.
Why do you ask ?
It's unusual, but due to May seriously under-performing compared to expectation, Grenfell and so on. Perhaps if the BBC reported things like Corbyn's Trident comments at Glastonbury, or Peston had spent some of his questions for Corbyn on economic madness rather than asking him if he'd keep his allotment, it wouldn't look quite so rosy.
Just seen McDonnell's Grenfell comments. What a ****.
On a happier note, my fairly detailed run through the hectic race is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/06/azerbaijan-post-race-analysis-2017.html
"I thought you were entitled to 72?"
If he lives an evil life, he will return as one of the 72.
Eventually we will end up the election of a far right authoritarian government. Nothing seems more certain, but then again nothing is certain in these strange times.
I am 'left leaning' but I can absolutely recognise that there absolutely no economic basis behind labours programme. I am left with no idea as to how Corbyn would restructure the economy to the nordic ideal that he claims to ascribe to. It simply involves plundering the resources of the state to subsidise the public sector and reduce inequality.
This situation is the consequence of giving people no alternative, it is a frankenstein of the tories own creation.
I wonder if the corbyn/ labour edifice could crumble as easily as the conservatives did in the 2017 GE?
I didn't realise Jezza wanted to copy the Nordic system. That works well enough as long as people are prepared to pay more tax. But it's a long way from Trotskyism.
As an entry-ist manoeuvre, it might work. Once he has his hands on the levers of power, who knows? The Labour Party moderates will move on or follow orders.
I wouldn't equate the 'grown up' Hammond to competence. He's just boring. I asked yesterday what Hammond has achieved in any of his roles as a Minister to date. I didn't get an answer. Even TMay had a couple of memorable wins.
The 2017 problem re-arises if large numbers of people return to being over-optimistic about their likelihood of turning out.
Labour voters over the next five years are going to need extreme cognitive dissonance to believe on the one hand that Corbyn is a nice, cuddly, peaceful fellow while simultaneously being best buddies with JMac the tyrant.
Just let him keep speaking is my view. The good cop bad cop act will stop working at some point.
One thing about him; IIRC he wasn’t one for the ministerial car; used to travel in on the Tube.
We've gone from Con majority nailed on to being 100% sure that not only will a Corbyn government be elected, but the sky will fall in and we'll elect a far-right authoritarian government in response.
AKA Alistair's Law.
There was a hatchet job on the gruesome twosome, Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill yesterday.
There feels like some inevitability to a Corbyn victory but things change very fast in politics these days.
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/06/john-strafford-this-election-campaign-was-a-disaster-the-party-must-be-radically-reformed-to-stop-it-ever-happening-again.html
Tories throwing everything into hopeless seats until the very end.
So I conclude it's more spin.
My understanding is the 304 was derived after the election, when he changed the weightings in line with what actually happened.
Prior to the election he was weighting down younger voters.
However with legislation, we must agree to disagree. Laws for the most part are made as a result of some sort of disagreement which needs resolved and a coda written which most people would accept as sensible - every body driving on their left side of the road, not exceeding a speed limit, making sure the vehicle is mechanically safe enough to be driven, having a driving test to confirm that the person knows enough to follow the rules, etc..
Where laws are written to abuse the rights of citizens (yes, I do know we do not have any citizens in the UK, but the term is acceptable in context) or Laws that have been agreed on as acceptable by the many, are abused or ignored by a self selecting elite without any penalty, then there is going to be trouble.
Advice given to me many years ago by one well travelled, when you are in a country of smiles, and the people stop smiling, run! It is not a good idea to piss off the citizens, it then is an even worse idea to piss off the military, security services (police, etc.), teachers or the train drivers.
Contrary to arguments made in this forum, I do not think we are going to have riots in the very near future. But there is a lot of anger around which no one in the Conservative party can circumvent, seemingly, without being able to stop pouring more petrol onto their own pyre.
Incompetence can be argued on many fronts. Terror attacks highlighted that cutting Police numbers by 20,000 since 2010 was a very risky thing to do. NHS standards have reduced since 2010 and it is struggling to run under current budget. Brexit negotiations by Government seem very ill prepared and not thought through. Grenfell flat fire has highlighted a big issue of substandard social housing, lack of housing supply and poor management of risk in applying standards to build quality/materials.
Voters have had enough of austerity, which has not really worked, as any slowing in spending, has not really stopped debt being built up. The Tories had originally planned to eliminate the deficit by 2015. This objective has now been moved to 2025 and by then the overall debt is likely to exceed £2 trillion. Arguably the Tories economic policies have been a failure.
Subject to I suppose any number of considerations it made me wonder whether it ought not to be maintained as some kind of monument, such is its awful presence.
Unfortunately those with memories of socialism in practice are passing away and we do not have enough students of history to compensate. This means that we have to go through a whole load of pain so the young can learn the reality of socialism. It should then protect us from another does for another 30 years or so but it may take that long to recover!
As for McDonnell, he overdoes his rhetoric at times, but personally I think Governments need a tough figure in the top team - one can't live by idealism alone. The reason the programme was more or less costed wihout splurges on some obvious places (benefits being the obvious one) is I suspect largely down to him. He's made an effort to prepare as Shadow Chancellor, which opposition chancellors really usually don't. What he hasn't yet done is complete the transition from far-left campaigner to potential Chancellor, in a way that Corbyn has visibly done for the top job.
Very pleased to see you concede that both McDonnell and Corbyn are far-left.
If either of them were to make a full mea culpa, acknowledge that things they did in the past were wrong or misjudged, that the UK while not waiting for socialism is nevertheless discovering an active social conscience, and that they promise to govern for all the people, not just the many, not the few..they would be in power for the next ten years.