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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The scale of LAB’s lead in the parliament’s first polls is unp

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  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,777
    edited June 2017
    Since the DUP were reportedly after £2bn.....not sure how settling for £1bn is a disaster:

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/879288633894875137

    Lets see whats in the EU Migrants paper today.....
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Alistair said:

    It means shacking up with the DUP just before peak marching season. I hope you like "No Popery" banners.

    I think you need to address your concerns to the voters who gave us this mess.

    As for 'No Popery', we'd better disenfranchise Lewes whilst we're about it:

    http://www.lewesbonfirecelebrations.com/article/history-of-lewes-no-popery-banner/
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited June 2017
    A lot of the money seems to be frontloaded - over the next 2 years.

    2019 election?
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151


    Plus, what he says is absolutely, 100% bonkers:

    "The decision not to build homes and to view housing as only for financial speculation rather than for meeting a basic human need made by politicians over decades murdered those families."

    As non-sequiturs go, that's a humdinger. It's verging on insane. Spending millions on refurbishing social housing is viewing housing only for financial speculation?

    British housing policy has been certifiably bonkers since at least Thatcher. Maybe putting an insane person in charge of it is the best way to make it work? Think of it like putting Boris+DD+Fox in charge of Brexit.
    We had an increase in population of 500,000 last year. There's no way that it won't be bonkers with those numbers.
    Sure there is, if you had a normal free market economy instead of a less efficient version of Soviet Communism you'd have no problem with an increase of 1 in 130.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,935
    £455 mn for 2 years with £30 mn for the next 3.

    All sums to a round £1 Billion :D
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,777

    The most significant aspect of this deal is the final paragraph. This is in principle a five year deal.

    Shhhh! People are too busy making jokes about sodomy.....
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,935

    The most significant aspect of this deal is the final paragraph. This is in principle a five year deal.

    Isn't "This parliament" a 2 year parliament ?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,989
    Would this count as Con minority? If it's Any Other, that's over 300 on Betfair now although (could be wrong) I think it was said here that confidence and supply counts as Con minority.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited June 2017
    Dead Ringers & all the other comedians are going to have so much fun taking the mickey out of this Con-DUP deal.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,777
    Pong said:

    A lot of the money seems to be frontloaded - over the next 2 years.

    2019 election?
    "The agreement will remain in place for the length of the parliament......"
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    Alistair said:

    It means shacking up with the DUP just before peak marching season. I hope you like "No Popery" banners.

    I think you need to address your concerns to the voters who gave us this mess.

    As for 'No Popery', we'd better disenfranchise Lewes whilst we're about it:

    http://www.lewesbonfirecelebrations.com/article/history-of-lewes-no-popery-banner/
    The voters certainly did not ask for the Tories to shack up with a bunch of reactionary homophobic sectarian religious zealots. And I have said time and again, you have a majority in GB WITHOUT these twats. Digging your own grave.
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Alistair said:

    nunu said:

    Alistair said:

    That cash better not be spent until Stormont is sorted.

    I also think this is bloody stupid politics by the Tories.

    They could have secured DUP support without this big show of document signing which makes it look like a coalition. Now they get ZERO credit for U-turns on triple lock and any investment in public services.

    Actually, scrap bloody stupid, it's insane.

    They have made it look more like Theresa May is beholden to the DUP than is actually the case. I can't see how that plays well, electorally.

    As I noted on June 11th, Mrs May is putting herself ahead of the best interests of the Tory Party and the country.

    She is a disgrace.
    Let's wait and see what the deal actually comprises.
    It means shacking up with the DUP just before peak marching season. I hope you like "No Popery" banners.
    May has just killed Scot Tories recovery stone dead if Scotland doesn't get it's share of money, hasn't she?
    I think we'll be seeing some SCon media hibernation for a while given the way they all went to ground when the DUP deal was first mooted.
    13 MPs x £100 Million x 3 = £3.9 Billion !

    Time for Ruth to deliver & MSM to hold her to account.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    That cash better not be spent until Stormont is sorted.

    I also think this is bloody stupid politics by the Tories.

    They could have secured DUP support without this big show of document signing which makes it look like a coalition. Now they get ZERO credit for U-turns on triple lock and any investment in public services.

    Actually, scrap bloody stupid, it's insane.

    They have made it look more like Theresa May is beholden to the DUP than is actually the case. I can't see how that plays well, electorally.

    As I noted on June 11th, Mrs May is putting herself ahead of the best interests of the Tory Party and the country.

    She is a disgrace.
    Channeling georgie porgie again are we? :)
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,273

    Would this count as Con minority? If it's Any Other, that's over 300 on Betfair now although (could be wrong) I think it was said here that confidence and supply counts as Con minority.

    BF rules talk about a C & S agreement and all the Cabinet posts are one party. So this looks like a Tory Minority bet win in next few hours.
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    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    edited June 2017
    Happy to see this deal done, hopefully it will provide a bit more stability and prevent a Marxist government at least for a few years. I don't agree with the DUP on a lot of stances but I never bought into some of the scaremongering in the media about things like Gay marriage being under threat etc.

    Now we can focus on Brexit.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693

    Pong said:

    A lot of the money seems to be frontloaded - over the next 2 years.

    2019 election?
    "The agreement will remain in place for the length of the parliament......"
    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2017/04/flashback-all-times-theresa-may-said-snap-election-was-terrible-idea
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,514
    edited June 2017
    felix said:

    That cash better not be spent until Stormont is sorted.

    I also think this is bloody stupid politics by the Tories.

    They could have secured DUP support without this big show of document signing which makes it look like a coalition. Now they get ZERO credit for U-turns on triple lock and any investment in public services.

    Actually, scrap bloody stupid, it's insane.

    They have made it look more like Theresa May is beholden to the DUP than is actually the case. I can't see how that plays well, electorally.

    As I noted on June 11th, Mrs May is putting herself ahead of the best interests of the Tory Party and the country.

    She is a disgrace.
    Channeling georgie porgie again are we? :)
    Channeling the likes of Tom Tugendhat.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,989
    Mr. Borough, yeah, that'd be my guess, but it would've felt remiss not to raise the question.

    Still miffed Force India screwed themselves. I had a few pounds on Perez at 201 to win. And he could've.

    *sighs*

    I shouldn't complain. I'm Frank Spencering my way to profit by a subtle combination of cunningly putting on the wrong stakes for failing bets and brilliantly hedging a bet that then gets voided, only for the hedge to unexpectedly win.
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    Think the DUP will have a big rise in popularity in Northern Ireland

    Doubt it. They are almost at max.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Alistair said:

    It means shacking up with the DUP just before peak marching season. I hope you like "No Popery" banners.

    I think you need to address your concerns to the voters who gave us this mess.

    As for 'No Popery', we'd better disenfranchise Lewes whilst we're about it:

    http://www.lewesbonfirecelebrations.com/article/history-of-lewes-no-popery-banner/
    The voters certainly did not ask for the Tories to shack up with a bunch of reactionary homophobic sectarian religious zealots. And I have said time and again, you have a majority in GB WITHOUT these twats. Digging your own grave.
    Theresa May asked for a majority. Voters saw fit to deny that request. Entirely up to them, of course, but it's a bit rich to complain that the result is that the only viable government requires the support of 'reactionary homophobic sectarian religious zealots' as you call them, or the democratically-elected representatives from Northern Ireland, as others might call them.

    As for whether a formal deal was needed or not, the problem of not having a deal would be that the government would be forever at risk of vote-by-vote blackmail by the 'reactionary homophobic sectarian religious zealots'. It's not obvious to me that it's a bad idea to formalise the agreement, especialy given the Article 50 ticking clock, although I can see arguments on both sides. The actual agreement looks pretty reasonable.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,777

    Alistair said:

    It means shacking up with the DUP just before peak marching season. I hope you like "No Popery" banners.

    I think you need to address your concerns to the voters who gave us this mess.

    As for 'No Popery', we'd better disenfranchise Lewes whilst we're about it:

    http://www.lewesbonfirecelebrations.com/article/history-of-lewes-no-popery-banner/
    a bunch of reactionary homophobic sectarian religious zealots
    You mean, the ones Gordon Brown tried to shack up with? Or were those different reactionary homophobic sectarian religious zealots who coincidentally were also called the DUP?
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    Pulpstar said:

    Must say, well done to the DUP. A pair of Jacks well played.

    SF still have the option to throw the table over. I think that will be Gerry's first thought. It's whether the 80 staff who will lose their jobs can persuade him otherwise.
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    Pong said:

    A lot of the money seems to be frontloaded - over the next 2 years.

    2019 election?
    "The agreement will remain in place for the length of the parliament......"
    And aren't you just so excited about it?

    This disgusting bunch will retoxify what's left of the addled Tory 'brand' and you will reap what you sow. @TSE is absolutely right.
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    Mr. Borough, yeah, that'd be my guess, but it would've felt remiss not to raise the question.

    Still miffed Force India screwed themselves. I had a few pounds on Perez at 201 to win. And he could've.

    *sighs*

    I shouldn't complain. I'm Frank Spencering my way to profit by a subtle combination of cunningly putting on the wrong stakes for failing bets and brilliantly hedging a bet that then gets voided, only for the hedge to unexpectedly win.


    :)
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    calum said:

    Alistair said:

    nunu said:

    Alistair said:

    That cash better not be spent until Stormont is sorted.

    I also think this is bloody stupid politics by the Tories.

    They could have secured DUP support without this big show of document signing which makes it look like a coalition. Now they get ZERO credit for U-turns on triple lock and any investment in public services.

    Actually, scrap bloody stupid, it's insane.

    They have made it look more like Theresa May is beholden to the DUP than is actually the case. I can't see how that plays well, electorally.

    As I noted on June 11th, Mrs May is putting herself ahead of the best interests of the Tory Party and the country.

    She is a disgrace.
    Let's wait and see what the deal actually comprises.
    It means shacking up with the DUP just before peak marching season. I hope you like "No Popery" banners.
    May has just killed Scot Tories recovery stone dead if Scotland doesn't get it's share of money, hasn't she?
    I think we'll be seeing some SCon media hibernation for a while given the way they all went to ground when the DUP deal was first mooted.
    13 MPs x £100 Million x 3 = £3.9 Billion !

    Time for Ruth to deliver & MSM to hold her to account.
    Hahaha - as if her mates are going to do that.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,851

    Alistair said:

    It means shacking up with the DUP just before peak marching season. I hope you like "No Popery" banners.

    I think you need to address your concerns to the voters who gave us this mess.

    As for 'No Popery', we'd better disenfranchise Lewes whilst we're about it:

    http://www.lewesbonfirecelebrations.com/article/history-of-lewes-no-popery-banner/
    The voters certainly did not ask for the Tories to shack up with a bunch of reactionary homophobic sectarian religious zealots. And I have said time and again, you have a majority in GB WITHOUT these twats. Digging your own grave.
    But, it is the hand the voters have dealt.

    In the same way, if the result in 2015 had been Conservative 318, UKIP 10, the Conservatives would have struck a supply and confidence deal with the latter, despite the left shrieking about it.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,777
    Pulpstar said:

    The most significant aspect of this deal is the final paragraph. This is in principle a five year deal.

    Isn't "This parliament" a 2 year parliament ?

    No, that's 'This Session of Parliament'.

    'This Parliament' runs until the next GE - which could be in 6 months (Jezza) or 5 years (Tories with IQs above room temperature)
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,334
    jonny83 said:

    Happy to see this deal done, hopefully it will provide a bit more stability and prevent a Marxist government at least for a few years. I don't agree with the DUP on a lot of stances but I never bought into some of the scare mongering in the media about things like Gay marriage being under threat etc.

    Now we can focus on Brexit.

    Actually the deal is quite clever as it puts SF on the spot. If they refuse to agree to restart Stormont they will be putting at risk substantial investment into Northern Ireland.

    Also James Brokenshire was kept out of the discussions
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    The Maydup government is a thing.

    How far the mighty have fallen.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908

    rkrkrk said:

    Meanwhile over in America - the Republicans may be close to the Senate passing a healthcare bill. If it's anything like previous versions - over 20 million people will lose health insurance.

    I'm trying to think of a parallel for this in history and really struggling.

    If you followed any of Sarah Kliffe's excellent interviews with Trump voters in Kentucky who are on Obamacare - they simply didn't believe he would do this.

    If it goes through, and it still might not, what the hell is going to happen?

    LOL, I feel no sympathy for those who take Trump at face value.

    You have to wonder why the GOP actually want to pass this bill though. This is much worse than Obamacare and will have a hugely negative impact on the lives of millions, including their own voters.

    Have to say, I'm glad I don't live in America. Wouldn't like to be in a country where they are the alternative.
    The issue actually is that the voters didn't take Trump at face value. They didn't believe he would repeal it even when he was saying he would.

    The GOP want to pass this because it's a massive tax cut, predominantly for the well-off.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,777

    Pong said:

    A lot of the money seems to be frontloaded - over the next 2 years.

    2019 election?
    "The agreement will remain in place for the length of the parliament......"
    And aren't you just so excited about it?

    This disgusting bunch will retoxify what's left of the addled Tory 'brand' and you will reap what you sow. @TSE is absolutely right.
    Still sore that you 'won'?
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Sean_F said:

    Alistair said:

    It means shacking up with the DUP just before peak marching season. I hope you like "No Popery" banners.

    I think you need to address your concerns to the voters who gave us this mess.

    As for 'No Popery', we'd better disenfranchise Lewes whilst we're about it:

    http://www.lewesbonfirecelebrations.com/article/history-of-lewes-no-popery-banner/
    The voters certainly did not ask for the Tories to shack up with a bunch of reactionary homophobic sectarian religious zealots. And I have said time and again, you have a majority in GB WITHOUT these twats. Digging your own grave.
    But, it is the hand the voters have dealt.

    In the same way, if the result in 2015 had been Conservative 318, UKIP 10, the Conservatives would have struck a supply and confidence deal with the latter, despite the left shrieking about it.
    No it is not. You have a majority in GB without this. As a hypothetical, would you have shacked up with the BNP if they had won 10 seats?
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    PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    edited June 2017

    Alistair said:

    It means shacking up with the DUP just before peak marching season. I hope you like "No Popery" banners.

    I think you need to address your concerns to the voters who gave us this mess.

    As for 'No Popery', we'd better disenfranchise Lewes whilst we're about it:

    http://www.lewesbonfirecelebrations.com/article/history-of-lewes-no-popery-banner/
    a bunch of reactionary homophobic sectarian religious zealots
    You mean, the ones Gordon Brown tried to shack up with? Or were those different reactionary homophobic sectarian religious zealots who coincidentally were also called the DUP?
    And what of the Labour party and it's woeful failure to deal with anti-semitic bigots within its own ranks?

    Motes and beams.
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    I know people were fretting about the Tories having a problem being an honest broker in the Good Friday agreement talks if they hitch up with the DUP, but does anyone think a Jezza/McDonnell government will be seen as neutral?
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Incidentally does the Barnnett Formula actually guarantee anything about extra spending? Doesn't it just define minimums?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,989
    F1: only two drivers have scored at every race this year. Vettel and Hamilton. Only one more (Ocon) has finished every race, and that's a 7/8 points record. I think he's a very talented driver. First proper season, drove a few races for Manor last year, and he's starting to trouble Perez.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,334

    The Maydup government is a thing.

    How far the mighty have fallen.

    I can see your pain but this is politics
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    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    So is May now safe for a while at least until conference? Possibly beyond?
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    Alistair said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Meanwhile over in America - the Republicans may be close to the Senate passing a healthcare bill. If it's anything like previous versions - over 20 million people will lose health insurance.

    I'm trying to think of a parallel for this in history and really struggling.

    If you followed any of Sarah Kliffe's excellent interviews with Trump voters in Kentucky who are on Obamacare - they simply didn't believe he would do this.

    If it goes through, and it still might not, what the hell is going to happen?

    It's quite astounding. I have put some money on the Dems for the mid-terms after initially thinking they had no chance of taking the house.
    Where did you bet and at what odds?
    The odds I looked on betfair weren't tempting - market lacks liquidity still.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,334
    The interesting part of the agreement is that the DUP will support the government over Brexit. Together with the 13 Scons maybe we are beginning to see a move towards a softer negotiated Brexit
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,851

    Sean_F said:

    Alistair said:

    It means shacking up with the DUP just before peak marching season. I hope you like "No Popery" banners.

    I think you need to address your concerns to the voters who gave us this mess.

    As for 'No Popery', we'd better disenfranchise Lewes whilst we're about it:

    http://www.lewesbonfirecelebrations.com/article/history-of-lewes-no-popery-banner/
    The voters certainly did not ask for the Tories to shack up with a bunch of reactionary homophobic sectarian religious zealots. And I have said time and again, you have a majority in GB WITHOUT these twats. Digging your own grave.
    But, it is the hand the voters have dealt.

    In the same way, if the result in 2015 had been Conservative 318, UKIP 10, the Conservatives would have struck a supply and confidence deal with the latter, despite the left shrieking about it.
    No it is not. You have a majority in GB without this. As a hypothetical, would you have shacked up with the BNP if they had won 10 seats?
    If, hypothetically speaking, we lived in a country where the BNP won 10 seats, and members of the BNP were Privy Councillors, and Peers, then plainly the BNP would be pretty mainstream politically, and one would not rule out a deal with them.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,777
    edited June 2017
    Alistair said:

    Incidentally does the Barnnett Formula actually guarantee anything about extra spending? Doesn't it just define minimums?

    If there is an increase in spending in England that leads to 'Barnett Consequentials' - as NI isn't in England, it doesn't apply.

    I expect the Nats will react with their customary measured reasonableness....
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,777

    The Maydup government is a thing.

    How far the mighty have fallen.

    I can see your pain but this is politics
    No loser like a sore 'winner' eh?
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    "As the U.K government we believe Nothern Irelands future is best served within a stronger Uniteted Kingdom".

    So why were people tweeting Dan Hannan didn't understand the U.K governments position in relation to N.Ireland?
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    jonny83 said:

    Happy to see this deal done, hopefully it will provide a bit more stability and prevent a Marxist government at least for a few years. I don't agree with the DUP on a lot of stances but I never bought into some of the scare mongering in the media about things like Gay marriage being under threat etc.

    Now we can focus on Brexit.

    Actually the deal is quite clever as it puts SF on the spot. If they refuse to agree to restart Stormont they will be putting at risk substantial investment into Northern Ireland.

    Also James Brokenshire was kept out of the discussions
    But they never want the place to look good compared to the haven of peace, EU investment and a Liffey running green with dollars you get in the RoI.

    I'm of the opinion putting the ball so firmly in SF's court is a bad thing. They can hurt both UK and NI with one wave of a wand.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rkrkrk said:

    Alistair said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Meanwhile over in America - the Republicans may be close to the Senate passing a healthcare bill. If it's anything like previous versions - over 20 million people will lose health insurance.

    I'm trying to think of a parallel for this in history and really struggling.

    If you followed any of Sarah Kliffe's excellent interviews with Trump voters in Kentucky who are on Obamacare - they simply didn't believe he would do this.

    If it goes through, and it still might not, what the hell is going to happen?

    It's quite astounding. I have put some money on the Dems for the mid-terms after initially thinking they had no chance of taking the house.
    Where did you bet and at what odds?
    The odds I looked on betfair weren't tempting - market lacks liquidity still.
    I took some of the illiquid money at better than evens that was there.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Sean_F said:

    If, hypothetically speaking, we lived in a country where the BNP won 10 seats, and members of the BNP were Privy Councillors, and Peers, then plainly the BNP would be pretty mainstream politically, and one would not rule out a deal with them.

    Luckily, under FPTP it's extremely unlikely that an extremist party gets to hold the balance of power.
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Alistair said:

    It means shacking up with the DUP just before peak marching season. I hope you like "No Popery" banners.

    I think you need to address your concerns to the voters who gave us this mess.

    As for 'No Popery', we'd better disenfranchise Lewes whilst we're about it:

    http://www.lewesbonfirecelebrations.com/article/history-of-lewes-no-popery-banner/
    The voters certainly did not ask for the Tories to shack up with a bunch of reactionary homophobic sectarian religious zealots. And I have said time and again, you have a majority in GB WITHOUT these twats. Digging your own grave.
    But, it is the hand the voters have dealt.

    In the same way, if the result in 2015 had been Conservative 318, UKIP 10, the Conservatives would have struck a supply and confidence deal with the latter, despite the left shrieking about it.
    No it is not. You have a majority in GB without this. As a hypothetical, would you have shacked up with the BNP if they had won 10 seats?
    If, hypothetically speaking, we lived in a country where the BNP won 10 seats, and members of the BNP were Privy Councillors, and Peers, then plainly the BNP would be pretty mainstream politically, and one would not rule out a deal with them.
    There we go then. That is clear. So any deal with any party (including BNP or Sinn Fein) is fair game. So now we know.
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    kurtjesterkurtjester Posts: 121
    edited June 2017

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Alistair said:

    It means shacking up with the DUP just before peak marching season. I hope you like "No Popery" banners.

    I think you need to address your concerns to the voters who gave us this mess.

    As for 'No Popery', we'd better disenfranchise Lewes whilst we're about it:

    http://www.lewesbonfirecelebrations.com/article/history-of-lewes-no-popery-banner/
    The voters certainly did not ask for the Tories to shack up with a bunch of reactionary homophobic sectarian religious zealots. And I have said time and again, you have a majority in GB WITHOUT these twats. Digging your own grave.
    But, it is the hand the voters have dealt.

    In the same way, if the result in 2015 had been Conservative 318, UKIP 10, the Conservatives would have struck a supply and confidence deal with the latter, despite the left shrieking about it.
    No it is not. You have a majority in GB without this. As a hypothetical, would you have shacked up with the BNP if they had won 10 seats?
    If, hypothetically speaking, we lived in a country where the BNP won 10 seats, and members of the BNP were Privy Councillors, and Peers, then plainly the BNP would be pretty mainstream politically, and one would not rule out a deal with them.
    There we go then. That is clear. So any deal with any party (including BNP or Sinn Fein) is fair game. So now we know.
    Politics, Boba. Get over it.
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    kurtjesterkurtjester Posts: 121
    edited June 2017
    Dave breaks cover. TSE's head is spinning.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,777

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Alistair said:

    It means shacking up with the DUP just before peak marching season. I hope you like "No Popery" banners.

    I think you need to address your concerns to the voters who gave us this mess.

    As for 'No Popery', we'd better disenfranchise Lewes whilst we're about it:

    http://www.lewesbonfirecelebrations.com/article/history-of-lewes-no-popery-banner/
    The voters certainly did not ask for the Tories to shack up with a bunch of reactionary homophobic sectarian religious zealots. And I have said time and again, you have a majority in GB WITHOUT these twats. Digging your own grave.
    But, it is the hand the voters have dealt.

    In the same way, if the result in 2015 had been Conservative 318, UKIP 10, the Conservatives would have struck a supply and confidence deal with the latter, despite the left shrieking about it.
    No it is not. You have a majority in GB without this. As a hypothetical, would you have shacked up with the BNP if they had won 10 seats?
    If, hypothetically speaking, we lived in a country where the BNP won 10 seats, and members of the BNP were Privy Councillors, and Peers, then plainly the BNP would be pretty mainstream politically, and one would not rule out a deal with them.
    There we go then. That is clear. So any deal with any party (including BNP or Sinn Fein) is fair game. So now we know.
    It was for Gordon Brown........
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,851

    Sean_F said:

    If, hypothetically speaking, we lived in a country where the BNP won 10 seats, and members of the BNP were Privy Councillors, and Peers, then plainly the BNP would be pretty mainstream politically, and one would not rule out a deal with them.

    Luckily, under FPTP it's extremely unlikely that an extremist party gets to hold the balance of power.
    Yes. If we had PR, like Israel or most of the Continent, then such deals would be frequent.
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    Pong said:

    A lot of the money seems to be frontloaded - over the next 2 years.

    2019 election?
    "The agreement will remain in place for the length of the parliament......"
    And aren't you just so excited about it?

    This disgusting bunch will retoxify what's left of the addled Tory 'brand' and you will reap what you sow. @TSE is absolutely right.
    Still sore that you 'won'?
    I have won nothing, nor claimed victory in anything.

    Given that you are an Oxbridge graduate in your sixties I would expect a more nuanced point of view from you. But you are behaving like a fangirl, not a thinker.
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    Sean_F said:

    If, hypothetically speaking, we lived in a country where the BNP won 10 seats, and members of the BNP were Privy Councillors, and Peers, then plainly the BNP would be pretty mainstream politically, and one would not rule out a deal with them.

    Luckily, under FPTP it's extremely unlikely that an extremist party gets to hold the balance of power.
    Such as the DUP?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,851

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Alistair said:

    It means shacking up with the DUP just before peak marching season. I hope you like "No Popery" banners.

    I think you need to address your concerns to the voters who gave us this mess.

    As for 'No Popery', we'd better disenfranchise Lewes whilst we're about it:

    http://www.lewesbonfirecelebrations.com/article/history-of-lewes-no-popery-banner/
    The voters certainly did not ask for the Tories to shack up with a bunch of reactionary homophobic sectarian religious zealots. And I have said time and again, you have a majority in GB WITHOUT these twats. Digging your own grave.
    But, it is the hand the voters have dealt.

    In the same way, if the result in 2015 had been Conservative 318, UKIP 10, the Conservatives would have struck a supply and confidence deal with the latter, despite the left shrieking about it.
    No it is not. You have a majority in GB without this. As a hypothetical, would you have shacked up with the BNP if they had won 10 seats?
    If, hypothetically speaking, we lived in a country where the BNP won 10 seats, and members of the BNP were Privy Councillors, and Peers, then plainly the BNP would be pretty mainstream politically, and one would not rule out a deal with them.
    There we go then. That is clear. So any deal with any party (including BNP or Sinn Fein) is fair game. So now we know.
    Plainly, it depends what a deal entails. I don't see much that's objectionable in this one.
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    alex. said:

    I find it very odd when I hear it said that the yoof are angry about Brexit because it means they can't work abroad.

    To work abroad, you usually have to be competent in the local language. The only exception is Holland where literally everyone including the homeless speaks English.

    What would a millennial do in Germany or Paris?

    At a guess, and this is just a guess, I'd say they would learn German or French. Millennials are capable of learning other languages.
    Then why do they not do so?
    http://esol.britishcouncil.org/content/learners/skills/reading/british-worst-learning-languages
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/sep/26/europeans-multiple-languages-uk-ireland
    They do. According to that, 38% of Britons speak a foreign language. It's less than other countries sure, but still a sizeable amount. Of the 62% there is likely to be a higher amount of people who don't have any interest in moving abroad at least in part because of language issues, so the 38% of people that do speak another language are more likely to want to move abroad.

    Additionally, if you are qualified or have experience, you won't have much trouble finding a job in Paris without French - all the big banks for example, French or otherwise, work almost entirely in English. My understanding is that Germany is also pretty open to English speakers. I can imagine places like Italy or Portugal being more difficult.

    How many of the 38% have the foreign language as a second language (as opposed to a first and/or family language)?
    30-odd years ago I was able to get jobs in the university vacations as a travel rep in Austria even though I was underage by their criteria. This happened because I had A Level German and spoke it pretty well, and they absolutely could not find English speakers of German. The firm - which was British - instead hired German speakers who could get by in English, plus the odd Iron Curtain type. If they'd hired only Britons over 21 who spoke German they'd have had no reps at all.

    That has got worse, not better. I have to laugh at the idea of someone who's prepared to work overseas as long as the locals all speak English to them.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited June 2017
    jonny83 said:

    Happy to see this deal done, hopefully it will provide a bit more stability and prevent a Marxist government at least for a few years. I don't agree with the DUP on a lot of stances but I never bought into some of the scaremongering in the media about things like Gay marriage being under threat etc.

    Now we can focus on Brexit.

    She is actually putting the Union at risk. SNP will surge again thanks to this deal, all for her short term interests.

    TSE is right she is a disgrace. She must be forced out.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,334

    Sean_F said:

    If, hypothetically speaking, we lived in a country where the BNP won 10 seats, and members of the BNP were Privy Councillors, and Peers, then plainly the BNP would be pretty mainstream politically, and one would not rule out a deal with them.

    Luckily, under FPTP it's extremely unlikely that an extremist party gets to hold the balance of power.
    Such as the DUP?
    Gordon Brown wanted them onside.

    I have no idea how long the government will last but the chances of a full five years has become more likely
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,777

    Pong said:

    A lot of the money seems to be frontloaded - over the next 2 years.

    2019 election?
    "The agreement will remain in place for the length of the parliament......"
    And aren't you just so excited about it?

    This disgusting bunch will retoxify what's left of the addled Tory 'brand' and you will reap what you sow. @TSE is absolutely right.
    Still sore that you 'won'?
    I would expect a more nuanced point of view from you.
    You are not exactly strong on nuance yourself:

    May + DUP = Evil
    Brown + DUP = 'Nothing to see here'
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    Alistair said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Alistair said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Meanwhile over in America - the Republicans may be close to the Senate passing a healthcare bill. If it's anything like previous versions - over 20 million people will lose health insurance.

    I'm trying to think of a parallel for this in history and really struggling.

    If you followed any of Sarah Kliffe's excellent interviews with Trump voters in Kentucky who are on Obamacare - they simply didn't believe he would do this.

    If it goes through, and it still might not, what the hell is going to happen?

    It's quite astounding. I have put some money on the Dems for the mid-terms after initially thinking they had no chance of taking the house.
    Where did you bet and at what odds?
    The odds I looked on betfair weren't tempting - market lacks liquidity still.
    I took some of the illiquid money at better than evens that was there.
    Well done!
    It's like 1.6 now which isn't tempting...
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    edited June 2017

    Alistair said:

    It means shacking up with the DUP just before peak marching season. I hope you like "No Popery" banners.

    I think you need to address your concerns to the voters who gave us this mess.

    As for 'No Popery', we'd better disenfranchise Lewes whilst we're about it:

    http://www.lewesbonfirecelebrations.com/article/history-of-lewes-no-popery-banner/

    Theresa May called a totally unnecessary election. The resulting mess belongs to her and the party she leads.

  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,332
    Saw the new carrier when coming over the Forth Road Bridge this morning. It is a serious looking piece of metal.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,273
    nunu said:

    jonny83 said:

    Happy to see this deal done, hopefully it will provide a bit more stability and prevent a Marxist government at least for a few years. I don't agree with the DUP on a lot of stances but I never bought into some of the scaremongering in the media about things like Gay marriage being under threat etc.

    Now we can focus on Brexit.

    She is actually putting the Union at risk. SNP will surge again thanks to this deal, all for her short term interests.

    TSE is right she is a disgrace. She must be forced out.
    Any PM handed the result just given by the electorate would have done the same thing.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,777
    nunu said:

    jonny83 said:

    Happy to see this deal done, hopefully it will provide a bit more stability and prevent a Marxist government at least for a few years. I don't agree with the DUP on a lot of stances but I never bought into some of the scaremongering in the media about things like Gay marriage being under threat etc.

    Now we can focus on Brexit.

    SNP will surge again thanks to this deal
    I'm not sure 'talking about anything but their record' is working for the SNP government any more.
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    CorleoneCorleone Posts: 3
    Has the idea of a legal challenge to a Tory-DUP deal, for supposedly breaching the Good Friday agreement, been dropped?
  • Options
    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    DavidL said:

    Saw the new carrier when coming over the Forth Road Bridge this morning. It is a serious looking piece of metal.

    Very cool sight I would imagine, looks massive.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DavidScutter1: turns out Brexit will get some people £350m for the NHS https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/879295159967547393
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,851
    Corleone said:

    Has the idea of a legal challenge to a Tory-DUP deal, for supposedly breaching the Good Friday agreement, been dropped?

    No, but it seems very speculative.

    I don't see how any Court can exercise jurisdiction over Parliamentary proceedings.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Alistair said:

    It means shacking up with the DUP just before peak marching season. I hope you like "No Popery" banners.

    I think you need to address your concerns to the voters who gave us this mess.

    As for 'No Popery', we'd better disenfranchise Lewes whilst we're about it:

    http://www.lewesbonfirecelebrations.com/article/history-of-lewes-no-popery-banner/

    Theresa May called a totally unnecessary election. The resulting mess belongs to her and the party she leads.

    From the point of view of the Conservative Party, I think it's entirely her mess. From the point of view of the country as a whole, voters voted for this mess. I take the old-fashioned view that grown-ups are responsible for the consequences of their actions, and that includes in their voting.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,777
    Corleone said:

    Has the idea of a legal challenge to a Tory-DUP deal, for supposedly breaching the Good Friday agreement, been dropped?

    The deal explicitly addresses that 'The DUP will have no involvement in the UK government's political talks in Northern Ireland'.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,709

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Alistair said:

    It means shacking up with the DUP just before peak marching season. I hope you like "No Popery" banners.

    I think you need to address your concerns to the voters who gave us this mess.

    As for 'No Popery', we'd better disenfranchise Lewes whilst we're about it:

    http://www.lewesbonfirecelebrations.com/article/history-of-lewes-no-popery-banner/
    The voters certainly did not ask for the Tories to shack up with a bunch of reactionary homophobic sectarian religious zealots. And I have said time and again, you have a majority in GB WITHOUT these twats. Digging your own grave.
    But, it is the hand the voters have dealt.

    In the same way, if the result in 2015 had been Conservative 318, UKIP 10, the Conservatives would have struck a supply and confidence deal with the latter, despite the left shrieking about it.
    No it is not. You have a majority in GB without this. As a hypothetical, would you have shacked up with the BNP if they had won 10 seats?
    If, hypothetically speaking, we lived in a country where the BNP won 10 seats, and members of the BNP were Privy Councillors, and Peers, then plainly the BNP would be pretty mainstream politically, and one would not rule out a deal with them.
    There we go then. That is clear. So any deal with any party (including BNP or Sinn Fein) is fair game. So now we know.
    You're not really getting this 'democracy' thing are you?
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    If you need a deal with the DUP
    Just pick the magic money tree
    Proffer its fruit; procure collusion
    Pretend its not all an illusion
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937

    Alistair said:

    It means shacking up with the DUP just before peak marching season. I hope you like "No Popery" banners.

    I think you need to address your concerns to the voters who gave us this mess.

    As for 'No Popery', we'd better disenfranchise Lewes whilst we're about it:

    http://www.lewesbonfirecelebrations.com/article/history-of-lewes-no-popery-banner/

    Theresa May called a totally unnecessary election. The resulting mess belongs to her and the party she leads.

    From the point of view of the Conservative Party, I think it's entirely her mess. From the point of view of the country as a whole, voters voted for this mess. I take the old-fashioned view that grown-ups are responsible for the consequences of their actions, and that includes in their voting.

    There is no grown-up human being called "the electorate".

  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Alistair said:

    It means shacking up with the DUP just before peak marching season. I hope you like "No Popery" banners.

    I think you need to address your concerns to the voters who gave us this mess.

    As for 'No Popery', we'd better disenfranchise Lewes whilst we're about it:

    http://www.lewesbonfirecelebrations.com/article/history-of-lewes-no-popery-banner/

    Theresa May called a totally unnecessary election. The resulting mess belongs to her and the party she leads.

    From the point of view of the Conservative Party, I think it's entirely her mess. From the point of view of the country as a whole, voters voted for this mess. I take the old-fashioned view that grown-ups are responsible for the consequences of their actions, and that includes in their voting.
    That's odd, I don't remember my ballot paper having a "hung parliament" option
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,332
    jonny83 said:

    DavidL said:

    Saw the new carrier when coming over the Forth Road Bridge this morning. It is a serious looking piece of metal.

    Very cool sight I would imagine, looks massive.
    It was its height that surprised me. There are a lot of decks under the landing deck. It will have the capacity to carry a lot of kit if required.
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    CorleoneCorleone Posts: 3
    Sean_F said:

    Corleone said:

    Has the idea of a legal challenge to a Tory-DUP deal, for supposedly breaching the Good Friday agreement, been dropped?

    No, but it seems very speculative.

    I don't see how any Court can exercise jurisdiction over Parliamentary proceedings.
    No court can tell MPs how to vote. I think the idea was that the government shouldn't make one-sided offers to the DUP. It would be nice if journalists could ask whether the government responded to the letter before action they received from solicitors Edwin Coe on behalf of the NI Green councillor.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    In many ways it was an election which no party won. Whilst the Tories ended up comfortably as the largest party , they have lost their majority and for that reason are perceived by the public as 'losers' regardless of the numbers. Labour lost the election but easily won the expectations game.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    There is no grown-up human being called "the electorate".

    True, but there were 12,877,869 grown-up human beings who voted for a party led by Corbyn and McDonnell. Fortunately we are all shielded, for the moment at least, from the full consequences of those 12,877,869 decisions; so far we've got off lightly with a little bit of pork-barrelling on the side, but the most dangerous potential consequence in the short-term is that the government will be too weak to negotiate a decent Brexit deal. We'll have to see how it turns out.
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    Corleone said:

    Has the idea of a legal challenge to a Tory-DUP deal, for supposedly breaching the Good Friday agreement, been dropped?

    The deal explicitly addresses that 'The DUP will have no involvement in the UK government's political talks in Northern Ireland'.
    Who is the Government having talks with then ?
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Grant Shapps MP (@grantshapps)

    Hmm. No change to Winter Fuel Payments, Triple-Lock Pensions & LongTerm care. With this manifesto, we could have had a stonking majority!


    :)
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,721

    nunu said:

    jonny83 said:

    Happy to see this deal done, hopefully it will provide a bit more stability and prevent a Marxist government at least for a few years. I don't agree with the DUP on a lot of stances but I never bought into some of the scaremongering in the media about things like Gay marriage being under threat etc.

    Now we can focus on Brexit.

    She is actually putting the Union at risk. SNP will surge again thanks to this deal, all for her short term interests.

    TSE is right she is a disgrace. She must be forced out.
    Any PM handed the result just given by the electorate would have done the same thing.
    True, but she didn't need to have called the election.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,421
    I agree with David Cameron.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,273

    nunu said:

    jonny83 said:

    Happy to see this deal done, hopefully it will provide a bit more stability and prevent a Marxist government at least for a few years. I don't agree with the DUP on a lot of stances but I never bought into some of the scaremongering in the media about things like Gay marriage being under threat etc.

    Now we can focus on Brexit.

    She is actually putting the Union at risk. SNP will surge again thanks to this deal, all for her short term interests.

    TSE is right she is a disgrace. She must be forced out.
    Any PM handed the result just given by the electorate would have done the same thing.
    True, but she didn't need to have called the election.
    No, indeed. History will not be kind on that blunder.
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    Corleone said:

    Has the idea of a legal challenge to a Tory-DUP deal, for supposedly breaching the Good Friday agreement, been dropped?

    The deal explicitly addresses that 'The DUP will have no involvement in the UK government's political talks in Northern Ireland'.
    Will the government be excluding the DUP from the talks then? Odd.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,332

    Grant Shapps MP (@grantshapps)

    Hmm. No change to Winter Fuel Payments, Triple-Lock Pensions & LongTerm care. With this manifesto, we could have had a stonking majority!


    :)

    She really has to go. Failure on this scale cannot be rewarded.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,421
    calum said:
    They will have a heavy hand to play in things like the Fisheries bill, devolution to Holyrood and the Trade and Customs Bills.
  • Options
    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Alistair said:

    It means shacking up with the DUP just before peak marching season. I hope you like "No Popery" banners.

    I think you need to address your concerns to the voters who gave us this mess.

    As for 'No Popery', we'd better disenfranchise Lewes whilst we're about it:

    http://www.lewesbonfirecelebrations.com/article/history-of-lewes-no-popery-banner/
    The voters certainly did not ask for the Tories to shack up with a bunch of reactionary homophobic sectarian religious zealots. And I have said time and again, you have a majority in GB WITHOUT these twats. Digging your own grave.
    But, it is the hand the voters have dealt.

    In the same way, if the result in 2015 had been Conservative 318, UKIP 10, the Conservatives would have struck a supply and confidence deal with the latter, despite the left shrieking about it.
    No it is not. You have a majority in GB without this. As a hypothetical, would you have shacked up with the BNP if they had won 10 seats?
    If, hypothetically speaking, we lived in a country where the BNP won 10 seats, and members of the BNP were Privy Councillors, and Peers, then plainly the BNP would be pretty mainstream politically, and one would not rule out a deal with them.
    There we go then. That is clear. So any deal with any party (including BNP or Sinn Fein) is fair game. So now we know.
    You're not really getting this 'democracy' thing are you?
    It is your party that isn't getting it.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,946

    I agree with David Cameron.

    Yup. I wish he'd give his old neighbour a lesson in public dignity.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937

    There is no grown-up human being called "the electorate".

    True, but there were 12,877,869 grown-up human beings who voted for a party led by Corbyn and McDonnell. Fortunately we are all shielded, for the moment at least, from the full consequences of those 12,877,869 decisions; so far we've got off lightly with a little bit of pork-barrelling on the side, but the most dangerous potential consequence in the short-term is that the government will be too weak to negotiate a decent Brexit deal. We'll have to see how it turns out.

    Yep - the government is now in a weaker position than it was before May called the totally unnecessary election.

    I agree that each voter is responsible for his or her vote.

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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    Pong said:

    A lot of the money seems to be frontloaded - over the next 2 years.

    2019 election?
    "The agreement will remain in place for the length of the parliament......"
    And aren't you just so excited about it?

    This disgusting bunch will retoxify what's left of the addled Tory 'brand' and you will reap what you sow. @TSE is absolutely right.
    Still sore that you 'won'?
    I would expect a more nuanced point of view from you.
    You are not exactly strong on nuance yourself:

    May + DUP = Evil
    Brown + DUP = 'Nothing to see here'
    I have said several times that if Brown (or anyone) tried anything similar they would deserve censure. Yet you seem perfectly willing to justify it. Telling.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,421

    Alistair said:

    It means shacking up with the DUP just before peak marching season. I hope you like "No Popery" banners.

    I think you need to address your concerns to the voters who gave us this mess.

    As for 'No Popery', we'd better disenfranchise Lewes whilst we're about it:

    http://www.lewesbonfirecelebrations.com/article/history-of-lewes-no-popery-banner/

    Theresa May called a totally unnecessary election. The resulting mess belongs to her and the party she leads.

    From the point of view of the Conservative Party, I think it's entirely her mess. From the point of view of the country as a whole, voters voted for this mess. I take the old-fashioned view that grown-ups are responsible for the consequences of their actions, and that includes in their voting.
    Let's be positive: if this works we have a Government that lasts till GE2022 post Brexit and the transition period, and Scottish independence has been killed off, for now. Meanwhile HMG can credibly claim to have a stake in all parts of the UK.

    Meanwhile, perhaps this very heavy warning shot across the bows might wake the Tories up to the threat of socialism before it's too late.

    Imagine if May had clung on until GE2020 (old style) and then Corbyn/McDonnell had pulled their cunning stunts?
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    WEAK WEAK WEAK
This discussion has been closed.