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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The scale of LAB’s lead in the parliament’s first polls is unp

SystemSystem Posts: 12,260
edited June 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The scale of LAB’s lead in the parliament’s first polls is unprecedented

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  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,229
    First!
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    The most recent common ancestor of the daffodil and the rhinoceros was about 1,500,000,000 years ago. Second!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    edited June 2017
    Third

    UKIP has finally disappeared from the polls?! Great news.

    "This is highly unusual and almost unprecedented. Almost always the first polls after a general election see the winner doing better than it did in the voting on the day"

    And so he is..... ;)
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,551
    Fourth

    I note that the Lib Dems have gone down. No doubt due to Tim Farron's departure and the lack of leadership the top of the party.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Chatted to a normally chipper Tory friend in the street yesterday. He was downbeat about his team's prospects. I tried to encourage him a bit. It wasn't until afterwards I remembered that the Conservatives are still running the country.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,229
    Verulamius said:


    I note that the Lib Dems have gone down. No doubt due to Tim Farron's departure and the lack of leadership the top of the party.

    Its really all pretty much MOE - except for the Labour surge, which is clearly real
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,229
    Recidivist said:

    It wasn't until afterwards I remembered that the Conservatives are still running the country.

    http://hastheresamayresignedyet.com

    Hasn't been updated in 11 days.....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    Recidivist said:

    Chatted to a normally chipper Tory friend in the street yesterday. He was downbeat about his team's prospects. I tried to encourage him a bit. It wasn't until afterwards I remembered that the Conservatives are still running the country.

    It is not immediately obvious that anyone is right now.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,892
    JohnLoony said:

    The most recent common ancestor of the daffodil and the rhinoceros was about 1,500,000,000 years ago. Second!

    Was it Theresa May?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,892
    Verulamius said:

    Fourth

    I note that the Lib Dems have gone down. No doubt due to Tim Farron's departure and the lack of leadership the top of the party.

    Who?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,849
    Corbyn's "Bin Trident" policy could be wildly popular if tested in a GE (it hardly got an airing last time). Especially if he markets it as an overtly anti-US gesture.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    rcs1000 said:

    JohnLoony said:

    The most recent common ancestor of the daffodil and the rhinoceros was about 1,500,000,000 years ago. Second!

    Was it Theresa May?
    Dinosaurs Unionist Party ?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,885
    IanB2 said:

    Recidivist said:

    Chatted to a normally chipper Tory friend in the street yesterday. He was downbeat about his team's prospects. I tried to encourage him a bit. It wasn't until afterwards I remembered that the Conservatives are still running the country.

    It is not immediately obvious that anyone is right now.
    Belguim managed 589 days without a government. I think that was the record.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215
    The press that May has had since the election has been almost uniformly negative. This is also unusual in that a newly elected government normally gets something of a honeymoon period with lots of media telling the inside story of how they cleverly won (in 2015 for example).

    Here it has been lots of stories about how she managed to lose the unlosable election, how she has lost her majority, what a problem this is for the UK in negotiating with Europe, the on/off deals with the DUP, when is May going to stand down, zombie responses to any tragedy etc etc.

    In some respects it is surprising that the Tory vote has held up as well as it has. My guess is that these are the people who fear a Corbyn government rather than any particular support or enthusiasm for May.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    OldKingCole said:

    IanB2 said:

    Recidivist said:

    Chatted to a normally chipper Tory friend in the street yesterday. He was downbeat about his team's prospects. I tried to encourage him a bit. It wasn't until afterwards I remembered that the Conservatives are still running the country.

    It is not immediately obvious that anyone is right now.
    Belguim managed 589 days without a government. I think that was the record.
    So there was only one Belgian who was able to use their little grey cells?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,941
    Recidivist said:

    Chatted to a normally chipper Tory friend in the street yesterday. He was downbeat about his team's prospects. I tried to encourage him a bit. It wasn't until afterwards I remembered that the Conservatives are still running the country.

    That's the point, after a GE there's a bit of a winner's surge. Although the Tories won the perception is that they lost.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    logical_song said:

    Recidivist said:

    Chatted to a normally chipper Tory friend in the street yesterday. He was downbeat about his team's prospects. I tried to encourage him a bit. It wasn't until afterwards I remembered that the Conservatives are still running the country.

    That's the point, after a GE there's a bit of a winner's surge. Although the Tories won the perception is that they lost.
    There was no winners surge as no party won the general election.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,885
    DavidL said:

    The press that May has had since the election has been almost uniformly negative. This is also unusual in that a newly elected government normally gets something of a honeymoon period with lots of media telling the inside story of how they cleverly won (in 2015 for example).

    Here it has been lots of stories about how she managed to lose the unlosable election, how she has lost her majority, what a problem this is for the UK in negotiating with Europe, the on/off deals with the DUP, when is May going to stand down, zombie responses to any tragedy etc etc.

    In some respects it is surprising that the Tory vote has held up as well as it has. My guess is that these are the people who fear a Corbyn government rather than any particular support or enthusiasm for May.

    As discussed previously, lining up the DUP as a prop has taken away some of the toxicity around Corbyn’s past IRA ‘links'.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,885
    JackW said:

    logical_song said:

    Recidivist said:

    Chatted to a normally chipper Tory friend in the street yesterday. He was downbeat about his team's prospects. I tried to encourage him a bit. It wasn't until afterwards I remembered that the Conservatives are still running the country.

    That's the point, after a GE there's a bit of a winner's surge. Although the Tories won the perception is that they lost.
    There was no winners surge as no party won the general election.
    We all know who lost though!
    I’m reasonably sure that if Heath had managed to stagger on in Feb 74 he’d have suffered the same problems.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    OldKingCole said:

    JackW said:

    logical_song said:

    Recidivist said:

    Chatted to a normally chipper Tory friend in the street yesterday. He was downbeat about his team's prospects. I tried to encourage him a bit. It wasn't until afterwards I remembered that the Conservatives are still running the country.

    That's the point, after a GE there's a bit of a winner's surge. Although the Tories won the perception is that they lost.
    There was no winners surge as no party won the general election.
    We all know who lost though!
    I’m reasonably sure that if Heath had managed to stagger on in Feb 74 he’d have suffered the same problems.
    All the GB parties lost in one way or another, with the SNP doing worst despite retaining (until the next GE) the majority of seats in Scotland - they will be a minor party soon and their dream of independence in the EU (an oxymoron) dead and buried. PC and the LDs lost vote share despite gaining seats, and Labour clearly didn't win, despite gaining seats and vote share.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215
    Gosh, its quiet on here this morning. Its almost as if many of the usual posters are too depressed about the situation to chip in.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,247
    They walk among us.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Just remind ourselves how accurate these pollsters were at the GE.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    DavidL said:

    Gosh, its quiet on here this morning. Its almost as if many of the usual posters are too depressed about the situation to chip in.

    It's another hot morning in paradise.
    Better things to do.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Pretty much what DavidL has said. Usually a party that either wins the GE outright/manages to form a government has a honeymoon. TMay's honeymoon has been and gone and ended mid way through the GE. With the way things have been going since that manifesto launch, its more surprising that the Conservatives have that many people backing them than anything else.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    SquareRoot said:

    Just remind ourselves how accurate these pollsters were at the GE.

    Survation and the YouGov Model were pretty accurate. Panelbase not so much.

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,367
    We're in a holding position. There will be a GE soon, and hopefully normal service will be resumed then.

    PM Jezza? Corbyn's manifesto looks harmless, it will increase the debt and deficit but no one cares anymore. We may lose a large company or two, but Brexit will be blamed, as it will for all manner of bad things.

    This heroic follower of Trotsky will be the great leader, fighting against the pygmies who seek to restore evil capitalism. Anyone who speaks out will be shamed by the proletariat on twitter. Life will be good, citizens. and you'd better believe it.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    DavidL said:

    Gosh, its quiet on here this morning. Its almost as if many of the usual posters are too depressed about the situation to chip in.

    Just a case that everybody is completely meh about polls. I've no idea who would commission a pollster right now, or why.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited June 2017
    On another matter, I have been away for the weekend, and on my way into London on Sunday we drove past the Grenfell tower. It was only seeing it in person that one could really actually appreciate the enormity of the disaster. Its difficult to actually put it into words.
    Its stands there, a blackened mass , its just awful. If anyone cheapskate on materials a la Towering Inferno or dodged the specifications, they deserve to be prosecuted.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    DavidL said:

    The press that May has had since the election has been almost uniformly negative. This is also unusual in that a newly elected government normally gets something of a honeymoon period with lots of media telling the inside story of how they cleverly won (in 2015 for example).

    Here it has been lots of stories about how she managed to lose the unlosable election, how she has lost her majority, what a problem this is for the UK in negotiating with Europe, the on/off deals with the DUP, when is May going to stand down, zombie responses to any tragedy etc etc.

    In some respects it is surprising that the Tory vote has held up as well as it has. My guess is that these are the people who fear a Corbyn government rather than any particular support or enthusiasm for May.

    I think that, in the same way, the "Labout vote" is largely people who hate the Tory government, rather than any particular support or enthusiasm for Socialism.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Labour's polling lead should encourage discipline among Conservative MPs. In practice it won't because they're all too obsessed about Brexit.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    DavidL said:

    Gosh, its quiet on here this morning. Its almost as if many of the usual posters are too depressed about the situation to chip in.

    I'm still recovering from Eid, where my parents' friends tried to marry me off to at least 30 different women.

    On topic, Mrs May is crap, like Gordon Brown, she should go, every day she stays, she is buying the Tories two days in opposition.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Labour's polling lead should encourage discipline among Conservative MPs. In practice it won't because they're all too obsessed about Brexit.

    Unlike you who never gives it a passing thought
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,941
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DavidL said:

    Gosh, its quiet on here this morning. Its almost as if many of the usual posters are too depressed about the situation to chip in.

    I'm still recovering from Eid, where my parents' friends tried to marry me off to at least 30 different women.

    On topic, Mrs May is crap, like Gordon Brown, she should go, every day she stays, she is buying the Tories two days in opposition.
    30 would keep you busy.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,247
    PClipp said:

    DavidL said:

    The press that May has had since the election has been almost uniformly negative. This is also unusual in that a newly elected government normally gets something of a honeymoon period with lots of media telling the inside story of how they cleverly won (in 2015 for example).

    Here it has been lots of stories about how she managed to lose the unlosable election, how she has lost her majority, what a problem this is for the UK in negotiating with Europe, the on/off deals with the DUP, when is May going to stand down, zombie responses to any tragedy etc etc.

    In some respects it is surprising that the Tory vote has held up as well as it has. My guess is that these are the people who fear a Corbyn government rather than any particular support or enthusiasm for May.

    I think that, in the same way, the "Labout vote" is largely people who hate the Tory government, rather than any particular support or enthusiasm for Socialism.
    Doesn't matter. They will get socialism good and hard if Labour win, whether they like it or not.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215
    freetochoose said:

    DavidL said:

    Gosh, its quiet on here this morning. Its almost as if many of the usual posters are too depressed about the situation to chip in.

    Just a case that everybody is completely meh about polls. I've no idea who would commission a pollster right now, or why.
    But what they are telling us here feels right. We have Corbyn prancing around the country like he won, appearing at Glastonbury for goodness sake, all the momentum is on his side. The Tories need to just hang on and hope this changes. But hanging on with a zombie leader is not a good look, not good at all.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    Govt at the moment is proving the point that all govt is superfluous, even the PB Tories agree its useless. The trains are running, police are on the streets, teachers are teaching etc etc everybody is going about their lives as normal.

    We need small government, far fewer politicians and bureaucrats and less legislation.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    logical_song said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm still recovering from Eid, where my parents' friends tried to marry me off to at least 30 different women.
    On topic, Mrs May is crap, like Gordon Brown, she should go, every day she stays, she is buying the Tories two days in opposition.

    30 would keep you busy.
    I thought you were entitled to 72?
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    DavidL said:

    freetochoose said:

    DavidL said:

    Gosh, its quiet on here this morning. Its almost as if many of the usual posters are too depressed about the situation to chip in.

    Just a case that everybody is completely meh about polls. I've no idea who would commission a pollster right now, or why.
    But what they are telling us here feels right. We have Corbyn prancing around the country like he won, appearing at Glastonbury for goodness sake, all the momentum is on his side. The Tories need to just hang on and hope this changes. But hanging on with a zombie leader is not a good look, not good at all.
    With respect who cares about a good look? The Conservatives were elected with a minority, their duty is to get on with it, who cares that Corbyn is at Glastonbury. The Conservative Party and its sycophantic disciples are obsessed with image, its why they threw away an election, they stand for nothing.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215
    PClipp said:

    logical_song said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm still recovering from Eid, where my parents' friends tried to marry me off to at least 30 different women.
    On topic, Mrs May is crap, like Gordon Brown, she should go, every day she stays, she is buying the Tories two days in opposition.

    30 would keep you busy.
    I thought you were entitled to 72?
    I think he has to be dead for that. Mind you after 30 women....
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    I am wondering if this indicates that negative campaigning no longer works. Speaking for myself I now routinely check news stories. There are always two sides to every argument. Regardless of the merits of the case, there is a big psychological difference between hearing just one angle and hearing different views. Maybe Labour have an advantage at that moment because they have realised first that knocking the opponents no longer has the power it used to in a less media rich world. Again, speaking personally - the only thing that put me off voting to remain in the EU was the ludicrous scare stories put out by the remain team.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,367
    The Glastonbury reaction to Jezza reminds me of 1967 (a mere 50 years ago).My first year at university where Trotskyites were all the rage. He was a real rebel because he even rebelled against communism - it was too capitalistic. Running dogs like the USSR were the enemy.

    They flourished a little among their own group but always ended up splitting. Hippie-dom and flower power lingered on for a while. Never thought then that it would come back into fashion.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    edited June 2017
    SquareRoot said:

    Just remind ourselves how accurate these pollsters were at the GE.

    Survation were almost spot on, Panelbase understated Labour and overstated the Tories.

    Why do you ask ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215
    freetochoose said:

    DavidL said:

    freetochoose said:

    DavidL said:

    Gosh, its quiet on here this morning. Its almost as if many of the usual posters are too depressed about the situation to chip in.

    Just a case that everybody is completely meh about polls. I've no idea who would commission a pollster right now, or why.
    But what they are telling us here feels right. We have Corbyn prancing around the country like he won, appearing at Glastonbury for goodness sake, all the momentum is on his side. The Tories need to just hang on and hope this changes. But hanging on with a zombie leader is not a good look, not good at all.
    With respect who cares about a good look? The Conservatives were elected with a minority, their duty is to get on with it, who cares that Corbyn is at Glastonbury. The Conservative Party and its sycophantic disciples are obsessed with image, its why they threw away an election, they stand for nothing.

    The Tories should care because it feeds the negative press and puts the government under an unendurable strain. The dog years of Major's government from 92-97 were truly awful and fuelled Blair's landslide like nothing else. The Tories cannot get into that position again. A new leader would help and they should do this soonest.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Good morning, everyone.

    It's unusual, but due to May seriously under-performing compared to expectation, Grenfell and so on. Perhaps if the BBC reported things like Corbyn's Trident comments at Glastonbury, or Peston had spent some of his questions for Corbyn on economic madness rather than asking him if he'd keep his allotment, it wouldn't look quite so rosy.

    Just seen McDonnell's Grenfell comments. What a ****.

    On a happier note, my fairly detailed run through the hectic race is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/06/azerbaijan-post-race-analysis-2017.html

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,367
    Mr Lipp,

    "I thought you were entitled to 72?"

    If he lives an evil life, he will return as one of the 72.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,919
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    It's unusual, but due to May seriously under-performing compared to expectation, Grenfell and so on. Perhaps if the BBC reported things like Corbyn's Trident comments at Glastonbury, or Peston had spent some of his questions for Corbyn on economic madness rather than asking him if he'd keep his allotment, it wouldn't look quite so rosy.

    Just seen McDonnell's Grenfell comments. What a ****.

    On a happier note, my fairly detailed run through the hectic race is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/06/azerbaijan-post-race-analysis-2017.html

    Any Labour followers on here are going to defend McDonnell's comments?
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    Time to just face up to our fate: Corbyn will get elected. There will be either hyper inflation or a housing market crash (one of two options, can't work out which is more likely). There will be strikes every day and public services will not work. Probably hyper inflation resulting from government printing money. Vast amounts of subsidy to the public sector without any modernisation and probable reduction in tax revenues.

    Eventually we will end up the election of a far right authoritarian government. Nothing seems more certain, but then again nothing is certain in these strange times.

    I am 'left leaning' but I can absolutely recognise that there absolutely no economic basis behind labours programme. I am left with no idea as to how Corbyn would restructure the economy to the nordic ideal that he claims to ascribe to. It simply involves plundering the resources of the state to subsidise the public sector and reduce inequality.

    This situation is the consequence of giving people no alternative, it is a frankenstein of the tories own creation.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    JosiasJessop said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    It's unusual, but due to May seriously under-performing compared to expectation, Grenfell and so on. Perhaps if the BBC reported things like Corbyn's Trident comments at Glastonbury, or Peston had spent some of his questions for Corbyn on economic madness rather than asking him if he'd keep his allotment, it wouldn't look quite so rosy.

    Just seen McDonnell's Grenfell comments. What a ****.

    On a happier note, my fairly detailed run through the hectic race is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/06/azerbaijan-post-race-analysis-2017.html

    Any Labour followers on here are going to defend McDonnell's comments?
    McDonnell comes across as particularly nasty.

    I wonder if the corbyn/ labour edifice could crumble as easily as the conservatives did in the 2017 GE?
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    DavidL said:

    freetochoose said:

    DavidL said:

    freetochoose said:

    DavidL said:

    Gosh, its quiet on here this morning. Its almost as if many of the usual posters are too depressed about the situation to chip in.

    Just a case that everybody is completely meh about polls. I've no idea who would commission a pollster right now, or why.
    But what they are telling us here feels right. We have Corbyn prancing around the country like he won, appearing at Glastonbury for goodness sake, all the momentum is on his side. The Tories need to just hang on and hope this changes. But hanging on with a zombie leader is not a good look, not good at all.
    With respect who cares about a good look? The Conservatives were elected with a minority, their duty is to get on with it, who cares that Corbyn is at Glastonbury. The Conservative Party and its sycophantic disciples are obsessed with image, its why they threw away an election, they stand for nothing.

    The Tories should care because it feeds the negative press and puts the government under an unendurable strain. The dog years of Major's government from 92-97 were truly awful and fuelled Blair's landslide like nothing else. The Tories cannot get into that position again. A new leader would help and they should do this soonest.
    I don't agree although I recognise it's a minority opinion on here. A leadership election apart from being self-indulgent will smack of weakness amongst the EU capitals. There is also no guarantee of getting a superior replacement given the vagaries of the Tory leadership process. David Davis seems to be on top of his brief as Brexit secretary and a change here just as negotiations are getting underway would be ludicrous. BoJo would never be my choice as PM for a whole host of reasons. And Hammond is best left as Chancellor - having a grown-up at the Treasury over this critical period is actually quite important.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    DavidL said:

    freetochoose said:

    DavidL said:

    freetochoose said:

    DavidL said:

    Gosh, its quiet on here this morning. Its almost as if many of the usual posters are too depressed about the situation to chip in.

    Just a case that everybody is completely meh about polls. I've no idea who would commission a pollster right now, or why.
    But what they are telling us here feels right. We have Corbyn prancing around the country like he won, appearing at Glastonbury for goodness sake, all the momentum is on his side. The Tories need to just hang on and hope this changes. But hanging on with a zombie leader is not a good look, not good at all.
    With respect who cares about a good look? The Conservatives were elected with a minority, their duty is to get on with it, who cares that Corbyn is at Glastonbury. The Conservative Party and its sycophantic disciples are obsessed with image, its why they threw away an election, they stand for nothing.

    The Tories should care because it feeds the negative press and puts the government under an unendurable strain. The dog years of Major's government from 92-97 were truly awful and fuelled Blair's landslide like nothing else. The Tories cannot get into that position again. A new leader would help and they should do this soonest.
    Oh the tories care about "the look", what they clearly don't care about is good governance. Let Corbyn go to Glastonbury and get on with running the country, you lot are obsessed with PR, its why Cameron resigned and why May is doomed.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    edited June 2017
    DavidL said:

    freetochoose said:

    DavidL said:

    freetochoose said:

    DavidL said:

    Gosh, its quiet on here this morning. Its almost as if many of the usual posters are too depressed about the situation to chip in.

    Just a case that everybody is completely meh about polls. I've no idea who would commission a pollster right now, or why.
    But what they are telling us here feels right. We have Corbyn prancing around the country like he won, appearing at Glastonbury for goodness sake, all the momentum is on his side. The Tories need to just hang on and hope this changes. But hanging on with a zombie leader is not a good look, not good at all.
    With respect who cares about a good look? The Conservatives were elected with a minority, their duty is to get on with it, who cares that Corbyn is at Glastonbury. The Conservative Party and its sycophantic disciples are obsessed with image, its why they threw away an election, they stand for nothing.

    The Tories should care because it feeds the negative press and puts the government under an unendurable strain. The dog years of Major's government from 92-97 were truly awful and fuelled Blair's landslide like nothing else. The Tories cannot get into that position again. A new leader would help and they should do this soonest.
    The situation is more worrying than anything since the 1970s when we had mad talk of a military coup etc. But can the Tories do this themselves, especially since they are split by Brexit? The centre is vacant - does realignment beckon?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    nielh said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    It's unusual, but due to May seriously under-performing compared to expectation, Grenfell and so on. Perhaps if the BBC reported things like Corbyn's Trident comments at Glastonbury, or Peston had spent some of his questions for Corbyn on economic madness rather than asking him if he'd keep his allotment, it wouldn't look quite so rosy.

    Just seen McDonnell's Grenfell comments. What a ****.

    On a happier note, my fairly detailed run through the hectic race is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/06/azerbaijan-post-race-analysis-2017.html

    Any Labour followers on here are going to defend McDonnell's comments?
    McDonnell comes across as particularly nasty.

    I wonder if the corbyn/ labour edifice could crumble as easily as the conservatives did in the 2017 GE?
    Public opinion seems to be a lot more volatile than it used to be. It could easily turn on the Labour Party in a big way. If it does, it isn't a certainty that the Tories would benefit. The Lib Dems could come from nowhere - who knows? I don't think it will happen but if there's going to be a landslide next time an anti-Brexit party formed by a few ex-Conservatives could well do a Macron. If I were a Tory party manager I'd be making sure that no remain MPs get dumped by their local associations for a few years.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,367
    edited June 2017
    Mr h,


    I didn't realise Jezza wanted to copy the Nordic system. That works well enough as long as people are prepared to pay more tax. But it's a long way from Trotskyism.

    As an entry-ist manoeuvre, it might work. Once he has his hands on the levers of power, who knows? The Labour Party moderates will move on or follow orders.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    nielh said:

    Time to just face up to our fate: Corbyn will get elected. There will be either hyper inflation or a housing market crash (one of two options, can't work out which is more likely). There will be strikes every day and public services will not work. Probably hyper inflation resulting from government printing money. Vast amounts of subsidy to the public sector without any modernisation and probable reduction in tax revenues.

    Eventually we will end up the election of a far right authoritarian government. Nothing seems more certain, but then again nothing is certain in these strange times.

    I am 'left leaning' but I can absolutely recognise that there absolutely no economic basis behind labours programme. I am left with no idea as to how Corbyn would restructure the economy to the nordic ideal that he claims to ascribe to. It simply involves plundering the resources of the state to subsidise the public sector and reduce inequality.

    This situation is the consequence of giving people no alternative, it is a frankenstein of the tories own creation.

    A great post. The truth of a Corbyn government.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726
    freetochoose said:

    DavidL said:

    freetochoose said:

    DavidL said:

    freetochoose said:

    DavidL said:

    Gosh, its quiet on here this morning. Its almost as if many of the usual posters are too depressed about the situation to chip in.

    Just a case that everybody is completely meh about polls. I've no idea who would commission a pollster right now, or why.
    But what they are telling us here feels right. We have Corbyn prancing around the country like he won, appearing at Glastonbury for goodness sake, all the momentum is on his side. The Tories need to just hang on and hope this changes. But hanging on with a zombie leader is not a good look, not good at all.
    With respect who cares about a good look? The Conservatives were elected with a minority, their duty is to get on with it, who cares that Corbyn is at Glastonbury. The Conservative Party and its sycophantic disciples are obsessed with image, its why they threw away an election, they stand for nothing.

    The Tories should care because it feeds the negative press and puts the government under an unendurable strain. The dog years of Major's government from 92-97 were truly awful and fuelled Blair's landslide like nothing else. The Tories cannot get into that position again. A new leader would help and they should do this soonest.
    Oh the tories care about "the look", what they clearly don't care about is good governance. Let Corbyn go to Glastonbury and get on with running the country, you lot are obsessed with PR, its why Cameron resigned and why May is doomed.
    I certainly think it's a weakness for politicians always to try and second guess what people think about them. One reason Labour did well is because Corbyn cared very little what people thought of him.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Norm said:

    DavidL said:

    freetochoose said:

    DavidL said:

    freetochoose said:

    DavidL said:

    Gosh, its quiet on here this morning. Its almost as if many of the usual posters are too depressed about the situation to chip in.

    Just a case that everybody is completely meh about polls. I've no idea who would commission a pollster right now, or why.
    But what they are telling us here feels right. We have Corbyn prancing around the country like he won, appearing at Glastonbury for goodness sake, all the momentum is on his side. The Tories need to just hang on and hope this changes. But hanging on with a zombie leader is not a good look, not good at all.
    With respect who cares about a good look? The Conservatives were elected with a minority, their duty is to get on with it, who cares that Corbyn is at Glastonbury. The Conservative Party and its sycophantic disciples are obsessed with image, its why they threw away an election, they stand for nothing.

    The Tories should care because it feeds the negative press and puts the government under an unendurable strain. The dog years of Major's government from 92-97 were truly awful and fuelled Blair's landslide like nothing else. The Tories cannot get into that position again. A new leader would help and they should do this soonest.
    I don't agree although I recognise it's a minority opinion on here. A leadership election apart from being self-indulgent will smack of weakness amongst the EU capitals. There is also no guarantee of getting a superior replacement given the vagaries of the Tory leadership process. David Davis seems to be on top of his brief as Brexit secretary and a change here just as negotiations are getting underway would be ludicrous. BoJo would never be my choice as PM for a whole host of reasons. And Hammond is best left as Chancellor - having a grown-up at the Treasury over this critical period is actually quite important.
    Agree with most of this but not sure it is a minority view. There are a few who are very vocal.

    I wouldn't equate the 'grown up' Hammond to competence. He's just boring. I asked yesterday what Hammond has achieved in any of his roles as a Minister to date. I didn't get an answer. Even TMay had a couple of memorable wins.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Pulpstar said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Just remind ourselves how accurate these pollsters were at the GE.

    Survation were almost spot on, Panelbase understated Labour and overstated the Tories.

    Why do you ask ?
    Because the polls were crap in 205 they were crap in 2017. The trustworthiness of any poll is questionable, more so now than ever before
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    PClipp said:

    DavidL said:

    The press that May has had since the election has been almost uniformly negative. This is also unusual in that a newly elected government normally gets something of a honeymoon period with lots of media telling the inside story of how they cleverly won (in 2015 for example).

    Here it has been lots of stories about how she managed to lose the unlosable election, how she has lost her majority, what a problem this is for the UK in negotiating with Europe, the on/off deals with the DUP, when is May going to stand down, zombie responses to any tragedy etc etc.

    In some respects it is surprising that the Tory vote has held up as well as it has. My guess is that these are the people who fear a Corbyn government rather than any particular support or enthusiasm for May.

    I think that, in the same way, the "Labout vote" is largely people who hate the Tory government, rather than any particular support or enthusiasm for Socialism.
    The positive Labour vote is likely to be someone around Corbyn's best PM rating, 35%. I agree that the balance to 45ish is simply "time to get rid of the Tories".
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726
    Norm said:

    DavidL said:

    freetochoose said:

    DavidL said:

    freetochoose said:

    DavidL said:

    Gosh, its quiet on here this morning. Its almost as if many of the usual posters are too depressed about the situation to chip in.

    Just a case that everybody is completely meh about polls. I've no idea who would commission a pollster right now, or why.
    But what they are telling us here feels right. We have Corbyn prancing around the country like he won, appearing at Glastonbury for goodness sake, all the momentum is on his side. The Tories need to just hang on and hope this changes. But hanging on with a zombie leader is not a good look, not good at all.
    With respect who cares about a good look? The Conservatives were elected with a minority, their duty is to get on with it, who cares that Corbyn is at Glastonbury. The Conservative Party and its sycophantic disciples are obsessed with image, its why they threw away an election, they stand for nothing.

    The Tories should care because it feeds the negative press and puts the government under an unendurable strain. The dog years of Major's government from 92-97 were truly awful and fuelled Blair's landslide like nothing else. The Tories cannot get into that position again. A new leader would help and they should do this soonest.
    I don't agree although I recognise it's a minority opinion on here. A leadership election apart from being self-indulgent will smack of weakness amongst the EU capitals. There is also no guarantee of getting a superior replacement given the vagaries of the Tory leadership process. David Davis seems to be on top of his brief as Brexit secretary and a change here just as negotiations are getting underway would be ludicrous. BoJo would never be my choice as PM for a whole host of reasons. And Hammond is best left as Chancellor - having a grown-up at the Treasury over this critical period is actually quite important.
    Another problem for the Conservatives is the belief that somewhere over the rainbow, a leader exists that will deliver a working majority.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    SquareRoot said:

    Pulpstar said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Just remind ourselves how accurate these pollsters were at the GE.

    Survation were almost spot on, Panelbase understated Labour and overstated the Tories.

    Why do you ask ?
    Because the polls were crap in 205 they were crap in 2017. The trustworthiness of any poll is questionable, more so now than ever before
    So long as people continue to be honest about whether they will actually vote or not, there is no reason why our polls shouldn't be as accurate as those in France or the US. I expect that is the position right now.

    The 2017 problem re-arises if large numbers of people return to being over-optimistic about their likelihood of turning out.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,919
    NickPalmer said:

    PClipp said:

    DavidL said:

    The press that May has had since the election has been almost uniformly negative. This is also unusual in that a newly elected government normally gets something of a honeymoon period with lots of media telling the inside story of how they cleverly won (in 2015 for example).

    Here it has been lots of stories about how she managed to lose the unlosable election, how she has lost her majority, what a problem this is for the UK in negotiating with Europe, the on/off deals with the DUP, when is May going to stand down, zombie responses to any tragedy etc etc.

    In some respects it is surprising that the Tory vote has held up as well as it has. My guess is that these are the people who fear a Corbyn government rather than any particular support or enthusiasm for May.

    I think that, in the same way, the "Labout vote" is largely people who hate the Tory government, rather than any particular support or enthusiasm for Socialism.
    The positive Labour vote is likely to be someone around Corbyn's best PM rating, 35%. I agree that the balance to 45ish is simply "time to get rid of the Tories".
    Nick, what are your views on McDonnell's comments about the Grenfell Tower?
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    edited June 2017
    nielh said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    It's unusual, but due to May seriously under-performing compared to expectation, Grenfell and so on. Perhaps if the BBC reported things like Corbyn's Trident comments at Glastonbury, or Peston had spent some of his questions for Corbyn on economic madness rather than asking him if he'd keep his allotment, it wouldn't look quite so rosy.

    Just seen McDonnell's Grenfell comments. What a ****.

    On a happier note, my fairly detailed run through the hectic race is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/06/azerbaijan-post-race-analysis-2017.html

    Any Labour followers on here are going to defend McDonnell's comments?
    McDonnell comes across as particularly nasty.

    I wonder if the corbyn/ labour edifice could crumble as easily as the conservatives did in the 2017 GE?
    Yes he's very nasty so what does that say about Corbyn? Everything would be my view.

    Labour voters over the next five years are going to need extreme cognitive dissonance to believe on the one hand that Corbyn is a nice, cuddly, peaceful fellow while simultaneously being best buddies with JMac the tyrant.

    Just let him keep speaking is my view. The good cop bad cop act will stop working at some point.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    Sean_F said:

    freetochoose said:

    DavidL said:

    freetochoose said:

    DavidL said:

    freetochoose said:

    DavidL said:

    Gosh, its quiet on here this morning. Its almost as if many of the usual posters are too depressed about the situation to chip in.

    Just a case that everybody is completely meh about polls. I've no idea who would commission a pollster right now, or why.
    But what they are telling us here feels right. We have Corbyn prancing around the country like he won, appearing at Glastonbury for goodness sake, all the momentum is on his side. The Tories need to just hang on and hope this changes. But hanging on with a zombie leader is not a good look, not good at all.
    With respect who cares about a good look? The Conservatives were elected with a minority, their duty is to get on with it, who cares that Corbyn is at Glastonbury. The Conservative Party and its sycophantic disciples are obsessed with image, its why they threw away an election, they stand for nothing.

    The Tories should care because it feeds the negative press and puts the government under an unendurable strain. The dog years of Major's government from 92-97 were truly awful and fuelled Blair's landslide like nothing else. The Tories cannot get into that position again. A new leader would help and they should do this soonest.
    Oh the tories care about "the look", what they clearly don't care about is good governance. Let Corbyn go to Glastonbury and get on with running the country, you lot are obsessed with PR, its why Cameron resigned and why May is doomed.
    I certainly think it's a weakness for politicians always to try and second guess what people think about them. One reason Labour did well is because Corbyn cared very little what people thought of him.
    Yep, agree with him or not Corbyn has said the same thing for 40 years, tories are obsessed with hoping people agree with them. Its all so vacuous.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,885
    Recidivist said:

    nielh said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    It's unusual, but due to May seriously under-performing compared to expectation, Grenfell and so on. Perhaps if the BBC reported things like Corbyn's Trident comments at Glastonbury, or Peston had spent some of his questions for Corbyn on economic madness rather than asking him if he'd keep his allotment, it wouldn't look quite so rosy.

    Just seen McDonnell's Grenfell comments. What a ****.

    On a happier note, my fairly detailed run through the hectic race is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/06/azerbaijan-post-race-analysis-2017.html

    Any Labour followers on here are going to defend McDonnell's comments?
    McDonnell comes across as particularly nasty.

    I wonder if the corbyn/ labour edifice could crumble as easily as the conservatives did in the 2017 GE?
    Public opinion seems to be a lot more volatile than it used to be. It could easily turn on the Labour Party in a big way. If it does, it isn't a certainty that the Tories would benefit. The Lib Dems could come from nowhere - who knows? I don't think it will happen but if there's going to be a landslide next time an anti-Brexit party formed by a few ex-Conservatives could well do a Macron. If I were a Tory party manager I'd be making sure that no remain MPs get dumped by their local associations for a few years.
    I’m not sure whether Cable as leader will be good or bad for the LD’s. He’s maybe yesterday’s man, possibly the sage in the corner, or of course, just maybe the authoritative wise old man to whom everyone can listen. He wasn’t a success as a miniter, but I often had the impression he was blocked by Osborne.
    One thing about him; IIRC he wasn’t one for the ministerial car; used to travel in on the Tube.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/879236067152580608
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    NickPalmer said:

    PClipp said:

    I think that, in the same way, the "Labout vote" is largely people who hate the Tory government, rather than any particular support or enthusiasm for Socialism.

    The positive Labour vote is likely to be someone around Corbyn's best PM rating, 35%. I agree that the balance to 45ish is simply "time to get rid of the Tories".
    Mr Corbyn`s "best PM rating" isn`t that at all, Mr Palmer. All it is is "Better than Theresa May", which isn`t saying much at all.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    freetochoose said:

    Sean_F said:

    freetochoose said:

    DavidL said:

    freetochoose said:

    DavidL said:

    freetochoose said:

    DavidL said:

    Gosh, its quiet on here this morning. Its almost as if many of the usual posters are too depressed about the situation to chip in.

    Just a case that everybody is completely meh about polls. I've no idea who would commission a pollster right now, or why.
    But what they are telling us here feels right. We have Corbyn prancing around the country like he won, appearing at Glastonbury for goodness sake, all the momentum is on his side. The Tories need to just hang on and hope this changes. But hanging on with a zombie leader is not a good look, not good at all.
    With respect who cares about a good look? The Conservatives were elected with a minority, their duty is to get on with it, who cares that Corbyn is at Glastonbury. The Conservative Party and its sycophantic disciples are obsessed with image, its why they threw away an election, they stand for nothing.

    The Tories should care because it feeds the negative press and puts the government under an unendurable strain. The dog years of Major's government from 92-97 were truly awful and fuelled Blair's landslide like nothing else. The Tories cannot get into that position again. A new leader would help and they should do this soonest.
    Oh the tories care about "the look", what they clearly don't care about is good governance. Let Corbyn go to Glastonbury and get on with running the country, you lot are obsessed with PR, its why Cameron resigned and why May is doomed.
    I certainly think it's a weakness for politicians always to try and second guess what people think about them. One reason Labour did well is because Corbyn cared very little what people thought of him.
    Yep, agree with him or not Corbyn has said the same thing for 40 years, tories are obsessed with hoping people agree with them. Its all so vacuous.
    The manifesto was quite "bold". Unfortunately the people didn't agree with it or at least enough of them to cost the Tories their majority.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    OldKingCole said:

    Recidivist said:

    nielh said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    It's unusual, but due to May seriously under-performing compared to expectation, Grenfell and so on. Perhaps if the BBC reported things like Corbyn's Trident comments at Glastonbury, or Peston had spent some of his questions for Corbyn on economic madness rather than asking him if he'd keep his allotment, it wouldn't look quite so rosy.

    Just seen McDonnell's Grenfell comments. What a ****.

    On a happier note, my fairly detailed run through the hectic race is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/06/azerbaijan-post-race-analysis-2017.html

    Any Labour followers on here are going to defend McDonnell's comments?
    McDonnell comes across as particularly nasty.

    I wonder if the corbyn/ labour edifice could crumble as easily as the conservatives did in the 2017 GE?
    Public opinion seems to be a lot more volatile than it used to be. It could easily turn on the Labour Party in a big way. If it does, it isn't a certainty that the Tories would benefit. The Lib Dems could come from nowhere - who knows? I don't think it will happen but if there's going to be a landslide next time an anti-Brexit party formed by a few ex-Conservatives could well do a Macron. If I were a Tory party manager I'd be making sure that no remain MPs get dumped by their local associations for a few years.
    I’m not sure whether Cable as leader will be good or bad for the LD’s. He’s maybe yesterday’s man, possibly the sage in the corner, or of course, just maybe the authoritative wise old man to whom everyone can listen. He wasn’t a success as a miniter, but I often had the impression he was blocked by Osborne.
    One thing about him; IIRC he wasn’t one for the ministerial car; used to travel in on the Tube.
    I was hoping there would be a meaningful election rather than a coronation. The Brown and May coronations are not good precedents.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,885
    Norm said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Recidivist said:

    nielh said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    It's unusual, but due to May seriously under-performing compared to expectation, Grenfell and so on. Perhaps if the BBC reported things like Corbyn's Trident comments at Glastonbury, or Peston had spent some of his questions for Corbyn on economic madness rather than asking him if he'd keep his allotment, it wouldn't look quite so rosy.

    Just seen McDonnell's Grenfell comments. What a ****.

    On a happier note, my fairly detailed run through the hectic race is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/06/azerbaijan-post-race-analysis-2017.html

    Any Labour followers on here are going to defend McDonnell's comments?
    McDonnell comes across as particularly nasty.

    I wonder if the corbyn/ labour edifice could crumble as easily as the conservatives did in the 2017 GE?
    Public opinion seems to be a lot more volatile than it used to be. It could easily turn on the Labour Party in a big way. If it does, it isn't a certainty that the Tories would benefit. The Lib Dems could come from nowhere - who knows? I don't think it will happen but if there's going to be a landslide next time an anti-Brexit party formed by a few ex-Conservatives could well do a Macron. If I were a Tory party manager I'd be making sure that no remain MPs get dumped by their local associations for a few years.
    I’m not sure whether Cable as leader will be good or bad for the LD’s. He’s maybe yesterday’s man, possibly the sage in the corner, or of course, just maybe the authoritative wise old man to whom everyone can listen. He wasn’t a success as a miniter, but I often had the impression he was blocked by Osborne.
    One thing about him; IIRC he wasn’t one for the ministerial car; used to travel in on the Tube.
    I was hoping there would be a meaningful election rather than a coronation. The Brown and May coronations are not good precedents.
    I think there will be. I don’t think Ed Davey’s going away!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    edited June 2017
    SquareRoot said:

    Pulpstar said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Just remind ourselves how accurate these pollsters were at the GE.

    Survation were almost spot on, Panelbase understated Labour and overstated the Tories.

    Why do you ask ?
    Because the polls were crap in 205 they were crap in 2017. The trustworthiness of any poll is questionable, more so now than ever before
    When you look at the reasons why the polls were generally wrong in both 2015 and 2017, it is horrific news for the Tories. My avatar has what always was the correct polling for GE2017....
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    JosiasJessop said:

    NickPalmer said:

    PClipp said:

    DavidL said:

    The press that May has had since the election has been almost uniformly negative. This is also unusual in that a newly elected government normally gets something of a honeymoon period with lots of media telling the inside story of how they cleverly won (in 2015 for example).

    Here it has been lots of stories about how she managed to lose the unlosable election, how she has lost her majority, what a problem this is for the UK in negotiating with Europe, the on/off deals with the DUP, when is May going to stand down, zombie responses to any tragedy etc etc.

    In some respects it is surprising that the Tory vote has held up as well as it has. My guess is that these are the people who fear a Corbyn government rather than any particular support or enthusiasm for May.

    I think that, in the same way, the "Labout vote" is largely people who hate the Tory government, rather than any particular support or enthusiasm for Socialism.
    The positive Labour vote is likely to be someone around Corbyn's best PM rating, 35%. I agree that the balance to 45ish is simply "time to get rid of the Tories".
    Nick, what are your views on McDonnell's comments about the Grenfell Tower?
    I'm sure it's just "John being John"
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited June 2017
    This site has gone a bit OTT now.

    We've gone from Con majority nailed on to being 100% sure that not only will a Corbyn government be elected, but the sky will fall in and we'll elect a far-right authoritarian government in response.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/879236067152580608

    So Lynton who argued that it was too risky to call an election because of turbulent international headwinds is now arguing to call a second referendum on independence for Scotland. Hmm.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,892
    GeoffM said:

    DavidL said:

    Gosh, its quiet on here this morning. Its almost as if many of the usual posters are too depressed about the situation to chip in.

    It's another hot morning in paradise.
    Better things to do.
    I thought you lived in Gibraltar?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/879236067152580608

    Strong and stable.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,892
    freetochoose said:

    DavidL said:

    Gosh, its quiet on here this morning. Its almost as if many of the usual posters are too depressed about the situation to chip in.

    Just a case that everybody is completely meh about polls. I've no idea who would commission a pollster right now, or why.
    Right now, the pollsters are doing it entirely for free. The only thing they demand of The Times, or The Independent, or whoever is good publicity.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited June 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Pulpstar said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Just remind ourselves how accurate these pollsters were at the GE.

    Survation were almost spot on, Panelbase understated Labour and overstated the Tories.

    Why do you ask ?
    Because the polls were crap in 205 they were crap in 2017. The trustworthiness of any poll is questionable, more so now than ever before
    When you look at the reasons why the polls were generally wrong in both 2015 and 2017, it is horrific news for the Tories. My avatar has what always was the correct polling for GE2017....
    Which is, ignore the headline figures, pay attention to what is happening to the don't knows.

    AKA Alistair's Law.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    Alistair said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/879236067152580608

    Strong and stable.
    I'm calling it spin against Sir Lynton.

    There was a hatchet job on the gruesome twosome, Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill yesterday.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    IanB2 said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Pulpstar said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Just remind ourselves how accurate these pollsters were at the GE.

    Survation were almost spot on, Panelbase understated Labour and overstated the Tories.

    Why do you ask ?
    Because the polls were crap in 205 they were crap in 2017. The trustworthiness of any poll is questionable, more so now than ever before
    So long as people continue to be honest about whether they will actually vote or not, there is no reason why our polls shouldn't be as accurate as those in France or the US. I expect that is the position right now.

    The 2017 problem re-arises if large numbers of people return to being over-optimistic about their likelihood of turning out.
    Generally speaking , the polls were in fact pretty accurate before the pollsters started to fiddle with the figures and adjust them . Take for example the last Comres poll . Published VI headline Con lead of 10% . Look though at the full data tables . Table 6 had almost the correct result a Con lead of just 1 % and then the pollsters got to work with their adjustments .
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited June 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Pulpstar said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Just remind ourselves how accurate these pollsters were at the GE.

    Survation were almost spot on, Panelbase understated Labour and overstated the Tories.

    Why do you ask ?
    Because the polls were crap in 205 they were crap in 2017. The trustworthiness of any poll is questionable, more so now than ever before
    When you look at the reasons why the polls were generally wrong in both 2015 and 2017, it is horrific news for the Tories. My avatar has what always was the correct polling for GE2017....
    I think we need to wait until the pensioners get their increases and their winter fuel allowances and then see where we are. I don't don't that there is a surge in popularity in Labour viz a ziz before the GE, the question is whether it will be maintained. Meanwhile my view is do not trust the polls.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alistair said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/879236067152580608

    Strong and stable.
    I'm calling it spin against Sir Lynton.

    There was a hatchet job on the gruesome twosome, Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill yesterday.
    What do you make of the Jim Messina spin saying he was predicting Con 304 with a week to go (at the same time as he was mocking YouGov model)?
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    The_Apocalypse said:

    This site has gone a bit OTT now.

    We've gone from Con majority nailed on to being 100% sure that not only will a Corbyn government be elected, but the sky will fall in and we'll elect a far-right authoritarian government in response.

    I was not certain about a significant tory majority but bet on it because I thought the odds were very good.
    There feels like some inevitability to a Corbyn victory but things change very fast in politics these days.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    F1: just updating my records (forgot to yesterday) and Verstappen scored more than half his points in the first two races. Reliability's been pretty shoddy. With breakdowns and needless collisions, about half the field could've credibly won the race.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    Alistair said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alistair said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/879236067152580608

    Strong and stable.
    I'm calling it spin against Sir Lynton.

    There was a hatchet job on the gruesome twosome, Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill yesterday.
    What do you make of the Jim Messina spin saying he was predicting Con 304 with a week to go (at the same time as he was mocking YouGov model)?
    If so he had zero impact on his colleagues at CCHQ. See here:

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/06/john-strafford-this-election-campaign-was-a-disaster-the-party-must-be-radically-reformed-to-stop-it-ever-happening-again.html

    Tories throwing everything into hopeless seats until the very end.

    So I conclude it's more spin.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    Alistair said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alistair said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/879236067152580608

    Strong and stable.
    I'm calling it spin against Sir Lynton.

    There was a hatchet job on the gruesome twosome, Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill yesterday.
    What do you make of the Jim Messina spin saying he was predicting Con 304 with a week to go (at the same time as he was mocking YouGov model)?
    I call bullshit by Mr Messina.

    My understanding is the 304 was derived after the election, when he changed the weightings in line with what actually happened.

    Prior to the election he was weighting down younger voters.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    Support for independence might be on the rocks in Scotland right now, but give it a couple of years with Brexit + a Corbyn government.........
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alistair said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alistair said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/879236067152580608

    Strong and stable.
    I'm calling it spin against Sir Lynton.

    There was a hatchet job on the gruesome twosome, Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill yesterday.
    What do you make of the Jim Messina spin saying he was predicting Con 304 with a week to go (at the same time as he was mocking YouGov model)?
    I call bullshit by Mr Messina.

    My understanding is the 304 was derived after the election, when he changed the weightings in line with what actually happened.

    Prior to the election he was weighting down younger voters.
    Why do you think Crosby can do no wrong? His campaigns for Zac and Michael Howard were pretty awful.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    rcs1000 said:

    GeoffM said:

    DavidL said:

    Gosh, its quiet on here this morning. Its almost as if many of the usual posters are too depressed about the situation to chip in.

    It's another hot morning in paradise.
    Better things to do.
    I thought you lived in Gibraltar?
    One of the 4.1%.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    freetochoose said:

    Govt at the moment is proving the point that all govt is superfluous, even the PB Tories agree its useless. The trains are running, police are on the streets, teachers are teaching etc etc everybody is going about their lives as normal.

    We need small government, far fewer politicians and bureaucrats and less legislation.

    You get they type of Government the electorate decide is relevant to them, although I would agree that the central government has become too centralised and local government too weak. Too many of the 650 at Westminster are being wasted and used as voting fodder to go through the lobbies as if having large numbers makes it all look great and working a treat. But there should be a case made, put before the electorate and they would decide.

    However with legislation, we must agree to disagree. Laws for the most part are made as a result of some sort of disagreement which needs resolved and a coda written which most people would accept as sensible - every body driving on their left side of the road, not exceeding a speed limit, making sure the vehicle is mechanically safe enough to be driven, having a driving test to confirm that the person knows enough to follow the rules, etc..

    Where laws are written to abuse the rights of citizens (yes, I do know we do not have any citizens in the UK, but the term is acceptable in context) or Laws that have been agreed on as acceptable by the many, are abused or ignored by a self selecting elite without any penalty, then there is going to be trouble.

    Advice given to me many years ago by one well travelled, when you are in a country of smiles, and the people stop smiling, run! It is not a good idea to piss off the citizens, it then is an even worse idea to piss off the military, security services (police, etc.), teachers or the train drivers.

    Contrary to arguments made in this forum, I do not think we are going to have riots in the very near future. But there is a lot of anger around which no one in the Conservative party can circumvent, seemingly, without being able to stop pouring more petrol onto their own pyre.
  • Richard_HRichard_H Posts: 48
    Only 2 months ago Labour were polling below 30% and Corbyn was seen as a disaster. All the Tories needed to do was call an election to get a large majority. The reasons for this huge turnaround are loss of trust in Theresa May, arrogance of Tories taking electorate for granted and more people thinking Tories are incompetent.

    Incompetence can be argued on many fronts. Terror attacks highlighted that cutting Police numbers by 20,000 since 2010 was a very risky thing to do. NHS standards have reduced since 2010 and it is struggling to run under current budget. Brexit negotiations by Government seem very ill prepared and not thought through. Grenfell flat fire has highlighted a big issue of substandard social housing, lack of housing supply and poor management of risk in applying standards to build quality/materials.

    Voters have had enough of austerity, which has not really worked, as any slowing in spending, has not really stopped debt being built up. The Tories had originally planned to eliminate the deficit by 2015. This objective has now been moved to 2025 and by then the overall debt is likely to exceed £2 trillion. Arguably the Tories economic policies have been a failure.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    Morris_Dancer said:

    F1: just updating my records (forgot to yesterday) and Verstappen scored more than half his points in the first two races. Reliability's been pretty shoddy. With breakdowns and needless collisions, about half the field could've credibly won the race.

    At one point, just after the red flag, the top eight cars were from eight different manufacturers. Craziest race in a couple of years, great to watch.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    rcs1000 said:

    freetochoose said:

    DavidL said:

    Gosh, its quiet on here this morning. Its almost as if many of the usual posters are too depressed about the situation to chip in.

    Just a case that everybody is completely meh about polls. I've no idea who would commission a pollster right now, or why.
    Right now, the pollsters are doing it entirely for free. The only thing they demand of The Times, or The Independent, or whoever is good publicity.
    Blimey, thanks
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    freetochoose said:

    DavidL said:

    Gosh, its quiet on here this morning. Its almost as if many of the usual posters are too depressed about the situation to chip in.

    Just a case that everybody is completely meh about polls. I've no idea who would commission a pollster right now, or why.
    Indeed. Or take anything that any one of them says at all seriously.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    SquareRoot said:

    On another matter, I have been away for the weekend, and on my way into London on Sunday we drove past the Grenfell tower. It was only seeing it in person that one could really actually appreciate the enormity of the disaster. Its difficult to actually put it into words.
    Its stands there, a blackened mass , its just awful. If anyone cheapskate on materials a la Towering Inferno or dodged the specifications, they deserve to be prosecuted.

    From the Westway it is most stark.

    Subject to I suppose any number of considerations it made me wonder whether it ought not to be maintained as some kind of monument, such is its awful presence.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    OchEye said:

    freetochoose said:

    Govt at the moment is proving the point that all govt is superfluous, even the PB Tories agree its useless. The trains are running, police are on the streets, teachers are teaching etc etc everybody is going about their lives as normal.

    We need small government, far fewer politicians and bureaucrats and less legislation.

    You get they type of Government the electorate decide is relevant to them, although I would agree that the central government has become too centralised and local government too weak. Too many of the 650 at Westminster are being wasted and used as voting fodder to go through the lobbies as if having large numbers makes it all look great and working a treat. But there should be a case made, put before the electorate and they would decide.

    However with legislation, we must agree to disagree. Laws for the most part are made as a result of some sort of disagreement which needs resolved and a coda written which most people would accept as sensible - every body driving on their left side of the road, not exceeding a speed limit, making sure the vehicle is mechanically safe enough to be driven, having a driving test to confirm that the person knows enough to follow the rules, etc..

    Where laws are written to abuse the rights of citizens (yes, I do know we do not have any citizens in the UK, but the term is acceptable in context) or Laws that have been agreed on as acceptable by the many, are abused or ignored by a self selecting elite without any penalty, then there is going to be trouble.

    Advice given to me many years ago by one well travelled, when you are in a country of smiles, and the people stop smiling, run! It is not a good idea to piss off the citizens, it then is an even worse idea to piss off the military, security services (police, etc.), teachers or the train drivers.

    Contrary to arguments made in this forum, I do not think we are going to have riots in the very near future. But there is a lot of anger around which no one in the Conservative party can circumvent, seemingly, without being able to stop pouring more petrol onto their own pyre.
    Thanks for that measured reply. My point, which might seem pithy, is that during Parliament recesses the world keeps on turning. I appreciate this is a political site but on a daily basis I'm astonished how seemingly responsible adults put so much faith in politicians based solely on the colour of the rosette. The vast majority of politicians, and we have thousands of them, contribute very little, we just don't need them.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    I'm of the view that a Corbyn government is a certainty. I am not sure how it can be avoided.

    Unfortunately those with memories of socialism in practice are passing away and we do not have enough students of history to compensate. This means that we have to go through a whole load of pain so the young can learn the reality of socialism. It should then protect us from another does for another 30 years or so but it may take that long to recover!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    I think we're heading for an agreement on citizens' rights - this always seemed likely to be an early win, and it may lead to something of a false dawn about the talks - "not going to be as hard as we thought". Might even help May's ratings for a while...

    As for McDonnell, he overdoes his rhetoric at times, but personally I think Governments need a tough figure in the top team - one can't live by idealism alone. The reason the programme was more or less costed wihout splurges on some obvious places (benefits being the obvious one) is I suspect largely down to him. He's made an effort to prepare as Shadow Chancellor, which opposition chancellors really usually don't. What he hasn't yet done is complete the transition from far-left campaigner to potential Chancellor, in a way that Corbyn has visibly done for the top job.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    NickPalmer said:

    I think we're heading for an agreement on citizens' rights - this always seemed likely to be an early win, and it may lead to something of a false dawn about the talks - "not going to be as hard as we thought". Might even help May's ratings for a while...

    As for McDonnell, he overdoes his rhetoric at times, but personally I think Governments need a tough figure in the top team - one can't live by idealism alone. The reason the programme was more or less costed wihout splurges on some obvious places (benefits being the obvious one) is I suspect largely down to him. He's made an effort to prepare as Shadow Chancellor, which opposition chancellors really usually don't. What he hasn't yet done is complete the transition from far-left campaigner to potential Chancellor, in a way that Corbyn has visibly done for the top job.

    I take it you mean tough as in, bullets in knee caps tough, rather than economic realism etc? Yes he certainly seems to be tough in that respect. Personally I'd like the public to hear much more of this tough talk from JMac the Tyrant.

    Very pleased to see you concede that both McDonnell and Corbyn are far-left.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    edited June 2017
    NickPalmer said:

    I think we're heading for an agreement on citizens' rights - this always seemed likely to be an early win, and it may lead to something of a false dawn about the talks - "not going to be as hard as we thought". Might even help May's ratings for a while...

    As for McDonnell, he overdoes his rhetoric at times, but personally I think Governments need a tough figure in the top team - one can't live by idealism alone. The reason the programme was more or less costed wihout splurges on some obvious places (benefits being the obvious one) is I suspect largely down to him. He's made an effort to prepare as Shadow Chancellor, which opposition chancellors really usually don't. What he hasn't yet done is complete the transition from far-left campaigner to potential Chancellor, in a way that Corbyn has visibly done for the top job.

    Corbyn has done no such thing. The electorate has come to him.

    If either of them were to make a full mea culpa, acknowledge that things they did in the past were wrong or misjudged, that the UK while not waiting for socialism is nevertheless discovering an active social conscience, and that they promise to govern for all the people, not just the many, not the few..they would be in power for the next ten years.
This discussion has been closed.