politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Tory MPs must stop the Tory DUP deal from happening
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Would be better just to have that explicitly: graduates pay (for example - haven't done the maths), 1% extra on the base rate and 3% extra on the top rate as a "graduate premium"RobD said:
I'm still of the view that free tuition would be quite regressive.,. it'd be the poorer taxpayers paying for middle class/wealthy students to go to university. The current system is basically a graduate tax, and doesn't impact things like your credit rating.tlg86 said:Anecdote alert. Bloke up the pub last night told my dad he voted Labour for the first time in his life on Thursday. Why? He has six grandchildren and he think it's outrageous that they should be saddled with so much debt if they go to university. And the Scots get it for nothing.
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We happened to catch a small piece of a program about 70's TV last night. The casual racism, sexism, homophobia and indifference to the age of consent was remarkable. In the Province the 70's went on rather longer, possibly because the troubles drove religious affiliation in a way we have thankfully moved on from.
I think TSE's piece is a tad over the top and insulting to British citizens but that does not mean that I think any kind of fixed arrangement is a good idea. Sturgeon has operated a minority government in Scotland for 2 years now. It does mean a less than active legislative program and a heavy reliance on administrative powers but it can be done. The Tories should put forward an extremely modest Queens speech and see what the Commons does about it. On individual measures they will need to consult other parties. That will include the DUP.
In the meantime they should start the search for their next leader.
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The original plan was in H1 2018.AlastairMeeks said:Stray thought: when is David Cameron's autobiography coming out?
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He might want to bring that forward.TheScreamingEagles said:
The original plan was in H1 2018.AlastairMeeks said:Stray thought: when is David Cameron's autobiography coming out?
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I agree with you, particularly with a new PM in 6-12 months.AlastairMeeks said:
Why would the government collapse fairly quickly? This looks more like October 1974 than February 1974 to me.foxinsoxuk said:
There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.Sean_F said:
The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.nichomar said:Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.
It is 1974 revisited.
This Parliament was never going to do much more than pass budgets and deal with Brexit, anyway. Provided they can find a consensual cross-party approach to the latter they should be fine.0 -
Spot onDavidL said:We happened to catch a small piece of a program about 70's TV last night. The casual racism, sexism, homophobia and indifference to the age of consent was remarkable. In the Province the 70's went on rather longer, possibly because the troubles drove religious affiliation in a way we have thankfully moved on from.
I think TSE's piece is a tad over the top and insulting to British citizens but that does not mean that I think any kind of fixed arrangement is a good idea. Sturgeon has operated a minority government in Scotland for 2 years now. It does mean a less than active legislative program and a heavy reliance on administrative powers but it can be done. The Tories should put forward an extremely modest Queens speech and see what the Commons does about it. On individual measures they will need to consult other parties. That will include the DUP.
In the meantime they should start the search for their next leader.0 -
So are the Lib Dems going to collapse the Governmentfoxinsoxuk said:
There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.Sean_F said:
The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.nichomar said:Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.
It is 1974 revisited.0 -
Well I have suggested it should be serialised in the papers the week before the Tory conference, but I think he cares too much for the party to do that.AlastairMeeks said:
He might want to bring that forward.TheScreamingEagles said:
The original plan was in H1 2018.AlastairMeeks said:Stray thought: when is David Cameron's autobiography coming out?
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It was the first one that led to the hung Parliament, and Heath tried initially to hang on as a minority government.AlastairMeeks said:
Why would the government collapse fairly quickly? This looks more like October 1974 than February 1974 to me.foxinsoxuk said:
There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.Sean_F said:
The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.nichomar said:Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.
It is 1974 revisited.0 -
To answer your question, it's achieving Brexit and keeping out Jeremy Corbyn.AlastairMeeks said:The Conservatives need to decide which is their priority out of hard Brexit and keeping Jeremy Corbyn out of power.
I would (reluctantly) sacrifice a full Brexit to maintain office and keep out Jeremy Corbyn. If the choice was no Brexit at all and keeping out Corbyn then I would surrender the keys because I think that would be a betrayal that would rip the Tories apart again in time anyway.
My red line is leaving the customs union. I see absolutely no point in quitting the EU's political structures and staying in both the single market and customs union. EFTA feels about right.
We have to be able to strike our own trade deals.0 -
The Parliamentary arithmetic was quite different. Labour were ahead.foxinsoxuk said:
It was the first one that led to the hung Parliament, and Heath tried initially to hang on as a minority government.AlastairMeeks said:
Why would the government collapse fairly quickly? This looks more like October 1974 than February 1974 to me.foxinsoxuk said:
There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.Sean_F said:
The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.nichomar said:Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.
It is 1974 revisited.0 -
I assume that the BBC's insatiable appetite for a freak show will require the DUP to take over the UKIP seat on Question Time?
Poor old Kippers, not even top of the fruitcake league now.0 -
No, but they will not support it. The LD manifesto was all about forming an opposition.Big_G_NorthWales said:
So are the Lib Dems going to collapse the Governmentfoxinsoxuk said:
There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.Sean_F said:
The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.nichomar said:Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.
It is 1974 revisited.
When it comes to the vote of no confidence, have no doubt which way the LDs will go.0 -
The Conservatives have enough votes and enough options to keep going a long time, at least until attrition sets in.foxinsoxuk said:
It was the first one that led to the hung Parliament, and Heath tried initially to hang on as a minority government.AlastairMeeks said:
Why would the government collapse fairly quickly? This looks more like October 1974 than February 1974 to me.foxinsoxuk said:
There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.Sean_F said:
The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.nichomar said:Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.
It is 1974 revisited.
The Conservatives only need to get one of the SNP, the Lib Dems and the DUP to abstain to have a majority. It's unlikely that all three will simultaneously want an election or a change of government.0 -
To those who think a Labour majority is nailed on for GE2022, or wherever it occurs, can I please add you to the list of Tories who thought a large majority was nailed on only 4 days ago, and that they'd be in power until the 2040s only 6 weeks ago?
A couple of obvious black swans: Corbyn isn't still leader in 5 years due to age or health, and UKIP rises again off the back of a Brexit betrayal that is pinned at Labour's door.
There are others.0 -
Morning sexy PB'ers,
Someone tell me Theresa The House Stealer has gone?
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The Tory DUP coalition,FUKUP, represents only 43.3% of the total voteshare .A Jeremy Corbyn-led government of Labour,SNP,Greens and Plaid easily beats the 50% +1 barrier.He has the democratic validity to form a government.These parties produced 52.5% of the vote.
A progressive alliance of government led by Labour should be given the chance to govern and Jez is ready to serve and fulfill his moral duty.0 -
Probably: this is actually one benefit of leaving the EU. You get to charge non-UK students the going rate for a degree whilst charging your own citizens via a graduate tax. Currently the UK has to offer all EU students the same deal, which makes a graduate tax manifestly unfair.Charles said:
Would be better just to have that explicitly: graduates pay (for example - haven't done the maths), 1% extra on the base rate and 3% extra on the top rate as a "graduate premium"RobD said:
I'm still of the view that free tuition would be quite regressive.,. it'd be the poorer taxpayers paying for middle class/wealthy students to go to university. The current system is basically a graduate tax, and doesn't impact things like your credit rating.tlg86 said:Anecdote alert. Bloke up the pub last night told my dad he voted Labour for the first time in his life on Thursday. Why? He has six grandchildren and he think it's outrageous that they should be saddled with so much debt if they go to university. And the Scots get it for nothing.
You could take the view that there are benefits to the country from bringing in outsiders which outweigh the costs - Germany seems to have taken this approach with it’s student funding - but I think this is only politically workable if students don’t have to pay fees directly at all & education is funded out of general taxation.0 -
They'll be no election for a long time. Labour have gone ahead and will stay there for a while. The only legislation will be budgets and Brexit, Let May complete Brexit and dump her. Spend 2 years coming up with some aspirational policies and destroy the Labour manifesto. Then go in 2019 with a new leader during their honeymoon and hope and pray the economy doesn't tank.
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On topic, the optics might not be helpful but only the DUP give the Tories a stable majority. You can find plenty of Tories who said equally fruity things in the 1990s.
I think about 80% of the objection is down to the fact they are keeping the Tories in office, which Corbynites are furious about. Conservatives anti-Mayites just want to stiff May and have her stand down asap.
The Tories should ultimately get a new leader where they can turn to the LDs for liberal votes on social matter and the DUP for Brexit related matters, making it clear its a matter of maths. Not endorsement.0 -
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That does not equate with Vince Cable on the radio - abstain probably, actively vote against the queens speech and hand a pass to Corbyn I have my doubtsfoxinsoxuk said:
No, but they will not support it. The LD manifesto was all about forming an opposition.Big_G_NorthWales said:
So are the Lib Dems going to collapse the Governmentfoxinsoxuk said:
There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.Sean_F said:
The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.nichomar said:Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.
It is 1974 revisited.
When it comes to the vote of no confidence, have no doubt which way the LDs will go.0 -
If Labour had made any attempt to introduce proportional representation in their 13 years in government you might have a bit of a point. Democratic validity comes from the agreed system. On that basis Labour fell far short.volcanopete said:The Tory DUP coalition,FUKUP, represents only 43.3% of the total voteshare .A Jeremy Corbyn-led government of Labour,SNP,Greens and Plaid easily beats the 50% +1 barrier.He has the democratic validity to form a government.These parties produced 52.5% of the vote.
A progressive alliance of government led by Labour should be given the chance to govern and Jez is ready to serve and fulfill his moral duty.0 -
You are missing the obvious. May is the least able tactician in the party, no way is she capable of the listening and horsetrading needed.AlastairMeeks said:
The Conservatives have enough votes and enough options to keep going a long time, at least until attrition sets in.foxinsoxuk said:
It was the first one that led to the hung Parliament, and Heath tried initially to hang on as a minority government.AlastairMeeks said:
Why would the government collapse fairly quickly? This looks more like October 1974 than February 1974 to me.foxinsoxuk said:
There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.Sean_F said:
The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.nichomar said:Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.
It is 1974 revisited.
The Conservatives only need to get one of the SNP, the Lib Dems and the DUP to abstain to have a majority. It's unlikely that all three will simultaneously want an election or a change of government.
She may limp through the year, but not much longer. The next year is just going to get grimmer for her.0 -
Good for him.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well I have suggested it should be serialised in the papers the week before the Tory conference, but I think he cares too much for the party to do that.AlastairMeeks said:
He might want to bring that forward.TheScreamingEagles said:
The original plan was in H1 2018.AlastairMeeks said:Stray thought: when is David Cameron's autobiography coming out?
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+1foxinsoxuk said:
You are missing the obvious. May is the least able tactician in the party, no way is she capable of the listening and horsetrading needed.AlastairMeeks said:
The Conservatives have enough votes and enough options to keep going a long time, at least until attrition sets in.foxinsoxuk said:
It was the first one that led to the hung Parliament, and Heath tried initially to hang on as a minority government.AlastairMeeks said:
Why would the government collapse fairly quickly? This looks more like October 1974 than February 1974 to me.foxinsoxuk said:
There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.Sean_F said:
The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.nichomar said:Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.
It is 1974 revisited.
The Conservatives only need to get one of the SNP, the Lib Dems and the DUP to abstain to have a majority. It's unlikely that all three will simultaneously want an election or a change of government.
She may limp through the year, but not much longer. The next year is just going to get grimmer for her.0 -
May=/= the Conservatives.foxinsoxuk said:
You are missing the obvious. May is the least able tactician in the party, no way is she capable of the listening and horsetrading needed.AlastairMeeks said:
The Conservatives have enough votes and enough options to keep going a long time, at least until attrition sets in.foxinsoxuk said:
It was the first one that led to the hung Parliament, and Heath tried initially to hang on as a minority government.AlastairMeeks said:
Why would the government collapse fairly quickly? This looks more like October 1974 than February 1974 to me.foxinsoxuk said:
There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.Sean_F said:
The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.nichomar said:Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.
It is 1974 revisited.
The Conservatives only need to get one of the SNP, the Lib Dems and the DUP to abstain to have a majority. It's unlikely that all three will simultaneously want an election or a change of government.
She may limp through the year, but not much longer. The next year is just going to get grimmer for her.
And as an early sceptic of her abilities, I think I can point out that she also has some talents which are currently being ignored by almost everyone.0 -
They got 45% and 302 seats. A four-party minority government won't work.volcanopete said:The Tory DUP coalition,FUKUP, represents only 43.3% of the total voteshare .A Jeremy Corbyn-led government of Labour,SNP,Greens and Plaid easily beats the 50% +1 barrier.He has the democratic validity to form a government.These parties produced 52.5% of the vote.
A progressive alliance of government led by Labour should be given the chance to govern and Jez is ready to serve and fulfill his moral duty.0 -
You are a Tory, as a Lib Dem I have no doubts about which way the party would vote.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That does not equate with Vince Cable on the radio - abstain probably, actively vote against the queens speech and hand a pass to Corbyn I have my doubtsfoxinsoxuk said:
No, but they will not support it. The LD manifesto was all about forming an opposition.Big_G_NorthWales said:
So are the Lib Dems going to collapse the Governmentfoxinsoxuk said:
There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.Sean_F said:
The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.nichomar said:Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.
It is 1974 revisited.
When it comes to the vote of no confidence, have no doubt which way the LDs will go.
The way the Tories targetted the LDs ibn 2015 is going to make for sweet revenge. It is in the interest of the country of course to put the Tories out of our misery.0 -
The Tories who mucked things up in the 1990s were the insanely Europhobic 'Bastards'. It's interesting that the party's current troubles can be traced back to the same issue and even the same people.Casino_Royale said:On topic, the optics might not be helpful but only the DUP give the Tories a stable majority. You can find plenty of Tories who said equally fruity things in the 1990s.
I think about 80% of the objection is down to the fact they are keeping the Tories in office, which Corbynites are furious about. Conservatives anti-Mayites just want to stiff May and have her stand down asap.
The Tories should ultimately get a new leader where they can turn to the LDs for liberal votes on social matter and the DUP for Brexit related matters, making it clear its a matter of maths. Not endorsement.
And no, the objection isn't down to pure party politics. It's down to the fact that the DUP - or even some segments of Conservative thought - don't match wider society. They've been left behind, but are still incredibly vocal.
I talked to about a dozen people - normal people - about the election yesterday, and perhaps half of them mentioned the DUP (or the deal) negatively. That number can only increase with time.
Every decision will be seen through the prism of deals with the DUP. It'll be a disaster.0 -
I suspect May all along has been wanting to dump BREXIT because it will not work in the real world. May has no idea how to handle it and she wants to give the problem to Labour to sort. BREXIT is toxic and I suspect May is going to take down the whole of the Tory party while she tries to save her own skin. Not a bad thing!-1
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Yes its just a smear campaign, but there ought to be no deal with the DUP..AlastairMeeks said:
May=/= the Conservatives.foxinsoxuk said:
You are missing the obvious. May is the least able tactician in the party, no way is she capable of the listening and horsetrading needed.AlastairMeeks said:
The Conservatives have enough votes and enough options to keep going a long time, at least until attrition sets in.foxinsoxuk said:
It was the first one that led to the hung Parliament, and Heath tried initially to hang on as a minority government.AlastairMeeks said:
Why would the government collapse fairly quickly? This looks more like October 1974 than February 1974 to me.foxinsoxuk said:
There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.Sean_F said:
The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.nichomar said:Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.
It is 1974 revisited.
The Conservatives only need to get one of the SNP, the Lib Dems and the DUP to abstain to have a majority. It's unlikely that all three will simultaneously want an election or a change of government.
She may limp through the year, but not much longer. The next year is just going to get grimmer for her.
And as an early sceptic of her abilities, I think I can point out that she also has some talents which are currently being ignored by almost everyone.0 -
A quick scan of my mother's Sunday Telegraph confirms that the Conservative establishment is still in the denial phase of the change curve.
Article after article from commentators trying to suggest that the election result means, and the solution to the crisis will be, more 'proper' Conservative policies (all the old canards, tax cuts, cutting foreign aid, etc etc), a harder Brexit, press on, keep digging, plus a couple of articles trying to double down on Project Fear about Corbyn, as if that is going to make any difference now.
It is quite clear that the Tories aren't thinking straight or able to face reality right now. So I am guessing it is going to be some time before a direction from the governmenr is decided.0 -
Such as?AlastairMeeks said:
May=/= the Conservatives.foxinsoxuk said:
You are missing the obvious. May is the least able tactician in the party, no way is she capable of the listening and horsetrading needed.AlastairMeeks said:
The Conservatives have enough votes and enough options to keep going a long time, at least until attrition sets in.foxinsoxuk said:
It was the first one that led to the hung Parliament, and Heath tried initially to hang on as a minority government.AlastairMeeks said:
Why would the government collapse fairly quickly? This looks more like October 1974 than February 1974 to me.foxinsoxuk said:
There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.Sean_F said:
The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.nichomar said:Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.
It is 1974 revisited.
The Conservatives only need to get one of the SNP, the Lib Dems and the DUP to abstain to have a majority. It's unlikely that all three will simultaneously want an election or a change of government.
She may limp through the year, but not much longer. The next year is just going to get grimmer for her.
And as an early sceptic of her abilities, I think I can point out that she also has some talents which are currently being ignored by almost everyone.0 -
Yes. The fact that these are members of the UK Parliament, voted for by the people of Northern Ireland with as much validity to be there as Labour MPs for Canterbury and High Peak, that seems to pass them by.....Casino_Royale said:
I think about 80% of the objection is down to the fact they are keeping the Tories in office, which Corbynites are furious about.
And let's be honest folks, if cosying up to the DUP could get Corbyn into No. 10 Downing Street, they would have bunked up in an instant. Although it is hugely ironic that the reason they can't get them onboard is Corbyn's past - a past we keep being told did not play in this election....
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The election just past was fought on a false premise. The premise was that May was going to get a substantial, even a huge majority. That made it ok (outside Scotland which had different priorities and a completely different campaign) not to vote Tory or to indulge yourself with a protest vote.
Stable government was assured and it was therefore alright to show your reservations about that government and May in particular. The collapse of her leadership lead over the election period was remarkable, I don't recall anything like it.
The next election will not be fought on such a premise. Labour are now close enough in terms of seats to be perfectly well placed to win an outright majority. I think that will focus minds and result in a critical assessment of the Labour manifesto in a way that did not happen in the last few months.
But May is terminally wounded and must come to terms with that, no matter how painful it may be. The Tories need a leader who is placed to go to the polls when the need arises, possibly at short notice. She needs to go and she needs to go now. By that I mean that she goes to a caretaker role while the leadership election plays out. She will obviously remain in office until that is done.0 -
Yes, that remains their biggest mistake. And one they still seem unwilling to face, or amend.AlastairMeeks said:
If Labour had made any attempt to introduce proportional representation in their 13 years in government you might have a bit of a point. Democratic validity comes from the agreed system. On that basis Labour fell far short.volcanopete said:The Tory DUP coalition,FUKUP, represents only 43.3% of the total voteshare .A Jeremy Corbyn-led government of Labour,SNP,Greens and Plaid easily beats the 50% +1 barrier.He has the democratic validity to form a government.These parties produced 52.5% of the vote.
A progressive alliance of government led by Labour should be given the chance to govern and Jez is ready to serve and fulfill his moral duty.
Once elected they will find their new support base isn't so reliable after all.0 -
I don't think so, actually. People like Rudd, Hammond, Barwell, Davidson and David Davis won't think like that.IanB2 said:A quick scan of my mother's Sunday Telegraph confirms that the Conservative establishment is still in the denial phase of the change curve.
Article after article from commentators trying to suggest that the election result means, and the solution to the crisis will be, more 'proper' Conservative policies (all the old canards, tax cuts, cutting foreign aid, etc etc), a harder Brexit, press on, keep digging, plus a couple of articles trying to double down on Project Fear about Corbyn, as if that is going to make any difference now.
It is quite clear that the Tories aren't thinking straight or able to face reality right now. So I am guessing it is going to be some time before a direction from the governmenr is decided.
This Parliament is (for the Conservatives) about achieving Brexit, with something to show for it by GE2022, and getting the electorate to take a second much closer look at Jeremy Corbyn.
A lot could happen.0 -
You're a lib dem,lol,looking at your post before the GE result I thought you a corbynite loyalist.foxinsoxuk said:
You are a Tory, as a Lib Dem I have no doubts about which way the party would vote.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That does not equate with Vince Cable on the radio - abstain probably, actively vote against the queens speech and hand a pass to Corbyn I have my doubtsfoxinsoxuk said:
No, but they will not support it. The LD manifesto was all about forming an opposition.Big_G_NorthWales said:
So are the Lib Dems going to collapse the Governmentfoxinsoxuk said:
There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.Sean_F said:
The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.nichomar said:Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.
It is 1974 revisited.
When it comes to the vote of no confidence, have no doubt which way the LDs will go.
The way the Tories targetted the LDs ibn 2015 is going to make for sweet revenge. It is in the interest of the country of course to put the Tories out of our misery.0 -
I fear you are being far to optimistic. I see no easy or quick way out of this mess for the Conservatives.DavidL said:The election just past was fought on a false premise. The premise was that May was going to get a substantial, even a huge majority. That made it ok (outside Scotland which had different priorities and a completely different campaign) not to vote Tory or to indulge yourself with a protest vote.
Stable government was assured and it was therefore alright to show your reservations about that government and May in particular. The collapse of her leadership lead over the election period was remarkable, I don't recall anything like it.
The next election will not be fought on such a premise. Labour are now close enough in terms of seats to be perfectly well placed to win an outright majority. I think that will focus minds and result in a critical assessment of the Labour manifesto in a way that did not happen in the last few months.
But May is terminally wounded and must come to terms with that, no matter how painful it may be. The Tories need a leader who is placed to go to the polls when the need arises, possibly at short notice. She needs to go and she needs to go now. By that I mean that she goes to a caretaker role while the leadership election plays out. She will obviously remain in office until that is done.0 -
My own mistake with my view on May was that she was aware of how she got the job and what her role was, she got the job by being last man standing and her role was to help the government/party along until the next election and then retire gracefully.AlastairMeeks said:
May=/= the Conservatives.foxinsoxuk said:
You are missing the obvious. May is the least able tactician in the party, no way is she capable of the listening and horsetrading needed.AlastairMeeks said:
The Conservatives have enough votes and enough options to keep going a long time, at least until attrition sets in.foxinsoxuk said:
It was the first one that led to the hung Parliament, and Heath tried initially to hang on as a minority government.AlastairMeeks said:
Why would the government collapse fairly quickly? This looks more like October 1974 than February 1974 to me.foxinsoxuk said:
There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.Sean_F said:
The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.nichomar said:Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.
It is 1974 revisited.
The Conservatives only need to get one of the SNP, the Lib Dems and the DUP to abstain to have a majority. It's unlikely that all three will simultaneously want an election or a change of government.
She may limp through the year, but not much longer. The next year is just going to get grimmer for her.
And as an early sceptic of her abilities, I think I can point out that she also has some talents which are currently being ignored by almost everyone.
She thought she was hot shit and should rule in her own right for at least one full term.0 -
I said on here before the election that shouting IRA at Corbyn would not resonate with anyone under 35. What a shame for the Tories that the eagerness of the BBC to join the bully-in meant every formal TV appearance focused almost exclusively on nuclear/terrorism issues and not on his plans for the economy. Big turn-off for many who saw:JosiasJessop said:
Anecdote alert: I met a fair few people yesterday whilst out and about, and I tried bringing up the subject of the election in as open a way as possible.tlg86 said:Anecdote alert. Bloke up the pub last night told my dad he voted Labour for the first time in his life on Thursday. Why? He has six grandchildren and he think it's outrageous that they should be saddled with so much debt if they go to university. And the Scots get it for nothing.
One young shop assistant said: "It's terrible the way they slandered Corbyn."
She was probably born after the end of the troubles. If many people feel that way, then it'll explain why the Conservative attacks didn't work.
The IRA issue as arcane and misrepresented
The nuclear issue as depressing - if *anyone* presses any button we're probably all finished anyway
What's more, many of my friends were shocked to hear that our policy on nuclear seemed to have evolved from deterrent to first strike. When did that happen?
Labour must now put some flesh on the bones of explaining Keynesianism to the people. That is the necessary preparation for the next election. To explain clearly how the Government budget does not operate like a household budget.0 -
What a popular bunch they are... (NOT)TheScreamingEagles said:ICYMI last night
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/873700646276431872
Time to look to the back benches?0 -
AgreedTykejohnno said:
You're a lib dem,lol,looking at your post before the GE result I thought you a corbynite loyalist.foxinsoxuk said:
You are a Tory, as a Lib Dem I have no doubts about which way the party would vote.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That does not equate with Vince Cable on the radio - abstain probably, actively vote against the queens speech and hand a pass to Corbyn I have my doubtsfoxinsoxuk said:
No, but they will not support it. The LD manifesto was all about forming an opposition.Big_G_NorthWales said:
So are the Lib Dems going to collapse the Governmentfoxinsoxuk said:
There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.Sean_F said:
The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.nichomar said:Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.
It is 1974 revisited.
When it comes to the vote of no confidence, have no doubt which way the LDs will go.
The way the Tories targetted the LDs ibn 2015 is going to make for sweet revenge. It is in the interest of the country of course to put the Tories out of our misery.0 -
Forget seats,it is the proportion of the vote that counts for the verification of democratic validity.Labour has every right to govern to save this country from May's coalition of chaos.Sean_F said:
They got 45% and 302 seats. A four-party minority government won't work.volcanopete said:The Tory DUP coalition,FUKUP, represents only 43.3% of the total voteshare .A Jeremy Corbyn-led government of Labour,SNP,Greens and Plaid easily beats the 50% +1 barrier.He has the democratic validity to form a government.These parties produced 52.5% of the vote.
A progressive alliance of government led by Labour should be given the chance to govern and Jez is ready to serve and fulfill his moral duty.0 -
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The CCCC now insist such comments are inappropriate on a Sunday. Indeed we may have to close down PB on the Sabbath in Northern Ireland - Poor @Y0kelGIN1138 said:Morning sexy PB'ers
Otherwise Mike Smithson would be prosecuted under the upcoming new Protection of Ulster From Poofters, Wimmin And Fornication On The Internet (Sunday) Act 2017.
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Not under FPTP it doesn't.volcanopete said:
Forget seats,it is the proportion of the vote that counts for the verification of democratic validity.Labour has every right to govern to save this country from May's coalition of chaos.Sean_F said:
They got 45% and 302 seats. A four-party minority government won't work.volcanopete said:The Tory DUP coalition,FUKUP, represents only 43.3% of the total voteshare .A Jeremy Corbyn-led government of Labour,SNP,Greens and Plaid easily beats the 50% +1 barrier.He has the democratic validity to form a government.These parties produced 52.5% of the vote.
A progressive alliance of government led by Labour should be given the chance to govern and Jez is ready to serve and fulfill his moral duty.0 -
Only if they can get a majority in the HOCvolcanopete said:
Forget seats,it is the proportion of the vote that counts for the verification of democratic validity.Labour has every right to govern to save this country from May's coalition of chaos.Sean_F said:
They got 45% and 302 seats. A four-party minority government won't work.volcanopete said:The Tory DUP coalition,FUKUP, represents only 43.3% of the total voteshare .A Jeremy Corbyn-led government of Labour,SNP,Greens and Plaid easily beats the 50% +1 barrier.He has the democratic validity to form a government.These parties produced 52.5% of the vote.
A progressive alliance of government led by Labour should be given the chance to govern and Jez is ready to serve and fulfill his moral duty.0 -
Exactly. As I've stated before, I have no issue with the Conservatives forming the next government. Jeremy Corbyn cannot hope to lead any kind of stable government with only 262 MPs, and I say this as someone who is back in Labour fold. Furthermore, the kind of protracted deal-making that would be required in order to sustain government with other centre-left parties would just lead to chaos. Given how the SNP lost ground on June 8th, and the success of the unionist parties in Scotland, a situation where Labour may have to give concessions to Nicola Sturgeon would be ridiculous.JosiasJessop said:
The Tories who mucked things up in the 1990s were the insanely Europhobic 'Bastards'. It's interesting that the party's current troubles can be traced back to the same issue and even the same people.Casino_Royale said:On topic, the optics might not be helpful but only the DUP give the Tories a stable majority. You can find plenty of Tories who said equally fruity things in the 1990s.
I think about 80% of the objection is down to the fact they are keeping the Tories in office, which Corbynites are furious about. Conservatives anti-Mayites just want to stiff May and have her stand down asap.
The Tories should ultimately get a new leader where they can turn to the LDs for liberal votes on social matter and the DUP for Brexit related matters, making it clear its a matter of maths. Not endorsement.
And no, the objection isn't down to pure party politics. It's down to the fact that the DUP - or even some segments of Conservative thought - don't match wider society. They've been left behind, but are still incredibly vocal.
I talked to about a dozen people - normal people - about the election yesterday, and perhaps half of them mentioned the DUP (or the deal) negatively. That number can only increase with time.
Every decision will be seen through the prism of deals with the DUP. It'll be a disaster.
But nonetheless, I vehemently oppose this deal with the DUP, and was worried yesterday that May was actually going into coalition with them. My concern with the DUP is their views on social issues - a deal with the DUP would mean May is beholden to people with those kinds of views on social issues.
Much better for May to run a minority government and engage with other parties when it comes to passing legislation.0 -
I so minority rule, or offer the opposition a chance to form a government and get a new leader.calum said:0 -
F1: just seen Ladbrokes has some group betting markets. Intriguing...0
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In most of those cases, it looks like the answer was not good leader or bad, but who? Only Boris and Gove got above 50% response rates.GIN1138 said:
What a popular bunch they are... (NOT)TheScreamingEagles said:ICYMI last night
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/873700646276431872
Time to look to the back benches?0 -
Good to see she's on the road to recovery.Alistair said:0 -
She had been dreaming about it since she was a kid and planning how to achieve it since she left school. So an easy mistake to make. Cf. one Mr G Brown.HaroldO said:
My own mistake with my view on May was that she was aware of how she got the job and what her role was, she got the job by being last man standing and her role was to help the government/party along until the next election and then retire gracefully.AlastairMeeks said:
May=/= the Conservatives.foxinsoxuk said:
You are missing the obvious. May is the least able tactician in the party, no way is she capable of the listening and horsetrading needed.AlastairMeeks said:
The Conservatives have enough votes and enough options to keep going a long time, at least until attrition sets in.foxinsoxuk said:
It was the first one that led to the hung Parliament, and Heath tried initially to hang on as a minority government.AlastairMeeks said:
Why would the government collapse fairly quickly? This looks more like October 1974 than February 1974 to me.foxinsoxuk said:
There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.Sean_F said:
The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.nichomar said:Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.
It is 1974 revisited.
The Conservatives only need to get one of the SNP, the Lib Dems and the DUP to abstain to have a majority. It's unlikely that all three will simultaneously want an election or a change of government.
She may limp through the year, but not much longer. The next year is just going to get grimmer for her.
And as an early sceptic of her abilities, I think I can point out that she also has some talents which are currently being ignored by almost everyone.
She thought she was hot shit and should rule in her own right for at least one full term.0 -
So another general election called solely in the interests of the Conservative party .... that went well three days ago.woody662 said:They'll be no election for a long time. Labour have gone ahead and will stay there for a while. The only legislation will be budgets and Brexit, Let May complete Brexit and dump her. Spend 2 years coming up with some aspirational policies and destroy the Labour manifesto. Then go in 2019 with a new leader during their honeymoon and hope and pray the economy doesn't tank.
0 -
Hezza on R4 now!0
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I am not saying it will be easy. It is entirely possible, indeed likely at this point that Labour will win the next election. That is up to the British people.JosiasJessop said:
I fear you are being far to optimistic. I see no easy or quick way out of this mess for the Conservatives.DavidL said:The election just past was fought on a false premise. The premise was that May was going to get a substantial, even a huge majority. That made it ok (outside Scotland which had different priorities and a completely different campaign) not to vote Tory or to indulge yourself with a protest vote.
Stable government was assured and it was therefore alright to show your reservations about that government and May in particular. The collapse of her leadership lead over the election period was remarkable, I don't recall anything like it.
The next election will not be fought on such a premise. Labour are now close enough in terms of seats to be perfectly well placed to win an outright majority. I think that will focus minds and result in a critical assessment of the Labour manifesto in a way that did not happen in the last few months.
But May is terminally wounded and must come to terms with that, no matter how painful it may be. The Tories need a leader who is placed to go to the polls when the need arises, possibly at short notice. She needs to go and she needs to go now. By that I mean that she goes to a caretaker role while the leadership election plays out. She will obviously remain in office until that is done.
What I am saying is that this is the only road available and the first step down that road is the removal of May.0 -
0
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I think that after such a self aware leader as Cameron (yes he was arrogant and brash, but he knew it) I expected May to be the same. Not so much.IanB2 said:
She had been dreaming about it since she was a kid and planning how to achieve it since she left school. So an easy mistake to make. Cf. one Mr G Brown.HaroldO said:
My own mistake with my view on May was that she was aware of how she got the job and what her role was, she got the job by being last man standing and her role was to help the government/party along until the next election and then retire gracefully.AlastairMeeks said:
May=/= the Conservatives.foxinsoxuk said:
You are missing the obvious. May is the least able tactician in the party, no way is she capable of the listening and horsetrading needed.AlastairMeeks said:
The Conservatives have enough votes and enough options to keep going a long time, at least until attrition sets in.foxinsoxuk said:
It was the first one that led to the hung Parliament, and Heath tried initially to hang on as a minority government.AlastairMeeks said:
Why would the government collapse fairly quickly? This looks more like October 1974 than February 1974 to me.foxinsoxuk said:
There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.Sean_F said:
The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.nichomar said:Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.
It is 1974 revisited.
The Conservatives only need to get one of the SNP, the Lib Dems and the DUP to abstain to have a majority. It's unlikely that all three will simultaneously want an election or a change of government.
She may limp through the year, but not much longer. The next year is just going to get grimmer for her.
And as an early sceptic of her abilities, I think I can point out that she also has some talents which are currently being ignored by almost everyone.
She thought she was hot shit and should rule in her own right for at least one full term.0 -
Labour,snp,lib dems and greens cobbled together would be coalition of chaos,would'nt it ?Alistair said:0 -
Maybe it's a cunning trap and she'll be arrested for the Cash for Ash scandal?williamglenn said:0 -
Remind me how Jezza would form a government?The_Apocalypse said:0 -
Wonder where the DUP will sit?0
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It's bums on seats that count. And by any metric, votes, or seats, the Conservatives outperformed Labour.volcanopete said:
Forget seats,it is the proportion of the vote that counts for the verification of democratic validity.Labour has every right to govern to save this country from May's coalition of chaos.Sean_F said:
They got 45% and 302 seats. A four-party minority government won't work.volcanopete said:The Tory DUP coalition,FUKUP, represents only 43.3% of the total voteshare .A Jeremy Corbyn-led government of Labour,SNP,Greens and Plaid easily beats the 50% +1 barrier.He has the democratic validity to form a government.These parties produced 52.5% of the vote.
A progressive alliance of government led by Labour should be given the chance to govern and Jez is ready to serve and fulfill his moral duty.0 -
She's still really struggling with numbers isn't she?Alistair said:0 -
Full steam ahead, I say. What could possibly go wrong?JosiasJessop said:How many people on here actually support May's position wrt the DUP?
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Polly Toynbee trashing George Osborne - embarrassing0
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I hated George Osborne, Cameron and Clegg when they were in government.JosiasJessop said:In a few short weeks May's undone the twelve years of work Cameron, Osborne and co. did to detoxify the party.
It's incredible.0 -
It doesn't matter what the reality is, it's all about the image currently. Corbyn has gone full populist.Tykejohnno said:
Labour,snp,lib dems and greens cobbled together would be coalition of chaos,would'nt it ?Alistair said:0 -
The Conservatives seem intent on alienating the voters that did cross over and help prevent Corbyn, I wouldn't be so sure they will do so again. This is only going one way. With the appointment of Barwell it seems pretty clear that was the plan all along.DavidL said:The election just past was fought on a false premise. The premise was that May was going to get a substantial, even a huge majority. That made it ok (outside Scotland which had different priorities and a completely different campaign) not to vote Tory or to indulge yourself with a protest vote.
Stable government was assured and it was therefore alright to show your reservations about that government and May in particular. The collapse of her leadership lead over the election period was remarkable, I don't recall anything like it.
The next election will not be fought on such a premise. Labour are now close enough in terms of seats to be perfectly well placed to win an outright majority. I think that will focus minds and result in a critical assessment of the Labour manifesto in a way that did not happen in the last few months.
But May is terminally wounded and must come to terms with that, no matter how painful it may be. The Tories need a leader who is placed to go to the polls when the need arises, possibly at short notice. She needs to go and she needs to go now. By that I mean that she goes to a caretaker role while the leadership election plays out. She will obviously remain in office until that is done.0 -
and it wouuld still short of a majority.Tykejohnno said:
Labour,snp,lib dems and greens cobbled together would be coalition of chaos,would'nt it ?Alistair said:
Whatever the DUP think of May they'd vote down a Corbyn Queen's speech...!0 -
I don't know how you've even read that into my post. I'm not endorsing Jeremy Corbyn forming a government with these numbers - I pretty much outlined that stance in my previous post.Mortimer said:
Remind me how Jezza would form a government?The_Apocalypse said:
I'm laughing at Diane's tweet and observing the fact that she can say that demonstrates how the Tories have made a mess of things, which they have.0 -
Historically all GEs have been called in the interest of the Party calling it, or not calling it in the case of G Brown.JackW said:
So another general election called solely in the interests of the Conservative party .... that went well three days ago.woody662 said:They'll be no election for a long time. Labour have gone ahead and will stay there for a while. The only legislation will be budgets and Brexit, Let May complete Brexit and dump her. Spend 2 years coming up with some aspirational policies and destroy the Labour manifesto. Then go in 2019 with a new leader during their honeymoon and hope and pray the economy doesn't tank.
0 -
Any government only has to get its QS and Supply through, and avoid a FTPA defeat (which is a high bar). As in the 1970s, losing other stuff makes them look bad but isn't necessarily fatal.Mortimer said:
Remind me how Jezza would form a government?The_Apocalypse said:
Circumstances in which sufficient MPs are prepared to abstain to allow a Corbyn QS through aren't completely inconceivable, although I agree unlikely.
Labour's biggest problem is that, whilst the election has revealed Corbyn's talent as a campaigner, life in a balanced parliament is likely to reveal his shortcomings as a party manager and political tactician.0 -
In the Grauniad?Big_G_NorthWales said:Polly Toynbee trashing George Osborne - embarrassing
0 -
Yep and it looks in the future we will be having a corbyn government.The_Apocalypse said:0 -
On MarrHaroldO said:
In the Grauniad?Big_G_NorthWales said:Polly Toynbee trashing George Osborne - embarrassing
0 -
They will probably cover the green benches with newspaper before they sit down on them.calum said:Wonder where the DUP will sit?
0 -
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Ok, well I'm not up to seeing he blathering nonsense on TV so I will have to conclude she has lost her mind attacking someone who didn't even stand in the election.Big_G_NorthWales said:
On MarrHaroldO said:
In the Grauniad?Big_G_NorthWales said:Polly Toynbee trashing George Osborne - embarrassing
0 -
Given the current performance of the Tory leadership, the electorate - who rightly value competence - might well decide that a functioning Labour government is better than this shower, whatever they think of their policies. If I was a Tory MP I wouldn’t be feeling very confident about winning a second GE this year at all.JosiasJessop said:
I fear you are being far to optimistic. I see no easy or quick way out of this mess for the Conservatives.DavidL said:The election just past was fought on a false premise. The premise was that May was going to get a substantial, even a huge majority. That made it ok (outside Scotland which had different priorities and a completely different campaign) not to vote Tory or to indulge yourself with a protest vote.
Stable government was assured and it was therefore alright to show your reservations about that government and May in particular. The collapse of her leadership lead over the election period was remarkable, I don't recall anything like it.
The next election will not be fought on such a premise. Labour are now close enough in terms of seats to be perfectly well placed to win an outright majority. I think that will focus minds and result in a critical assessment of the Labour manifesto in a way that did not happen in the last few months.
But May is terminally wounded and must come to terms with that, no matter how painful it may be. The Tories need a leader who is placed to go to the polls when the need arises, possibly at short notice. She needs to go and she needs to go now. By that I mean that she goes to a caretaker role while the leadership election plays out. She will obviously remain in office until that is done.0 -
Translation: you don't like the election outcome.volcanopete said:
Forget seats,it is the proportion of the vote that counts for the verification of democratic validity.Labour has every right to govern to save this country from May's coalition of chaos.Sean_F said:
They got 45% and 302 seats. A four-party minority government won't work.volcanopete said:The Tory DUP coalition,FUKUP, represents only 43.3% of the total voteshare .A Jeremy Corbyn-led government of Labour,SNP,Greens and Plaid easily beats the 50% +1 barrier.He has the democratic validity to form a government.These parties produced 52.5% of the vote.
A progressive alliance of government led by Labour should be given the chance to govern and Jez is ready to serve and fulfill his moral duty.0 -
Labour could give the example of Venezuela. Ken Livingston did. Socialism always fails.Monksfield said:
I said on here before the election that shouting IRA at Corbyn would not resonate with anyone under 35. What a shame for the Tories that the eagerness of the BBC to join the bully-in meant every formal TV appearance focused almost exclusively on nuclear/terrorism issues and not on his plans for the economy. Big turn-off for many who saw:JosiasJessop said:
Anecdote alert: I met a fair few people yesterday whilst out and about, and I tried bringing up the subject of the election in as open a way as possible.tlg86 said:Anecdote alert. Bloke up the pub last night told my dad he voted Labour for the first time in his life on Thursday. Why? He has six grandchildren and he think it's outrageous that they should be saddled with so much debt if they go to university. And the Scots get it for nothing.
One young shop assistant said: "It's terrible the way they slandered Corbyn."
She was probably born after the end of the troubles. If many people feel that way, then it'll explain why the Conservative attacks didn't work.
The IRA issue as arcane and misrepresented
The nuclear issue as depressing - if *anyone* presses any button we're probably all finished anyway
What's more, many of my friends were shocked to hear that our policy on nuclear seemed to have evolved from deterrent to first strike. When did that happen?
Labour must now put some flesh on the bones of explaining Keynesianism to the people. That is the necessary preparation for the next election. To explain clearly how the Government budget does not operate like a household budget.
0 -
Not surprised.tlg86 said:Anecdote alert. Bloke up the pub last night told my dad he voted Labour for the first time in his life on Thursday. Why? He has six grandchildren and he think it's outrageous that they should be saddled with so much debt if they go to university. And the Scots get it for nothing.
Osborne's increase of student tuition fees is the biggest tax rise people have ever experienced.
It lost the LibDems 40 MPs in 2015 and it lost the Conservatives 40 MPs in 2017.
I did warn people.
0 -
AbsolutelyScott_P said:Brexit is dead in the water
https://twitter.com/rcolvile/status/8738076496949411850 -
UKIP rising again will cripple the Tories. UKIP collapsing is what gave the Tories at least a 7% share boost this time.Casino_Royale said:To those who think a Labour majority is nailed on for GE2022, or wherever it occurs, can I please add you to the list of Tories who thought a large majority was nailed on only 4 days ago, and that they'd be in power until the 2040s only 6 weeks ago?
A couple of obvious black swans: Corbyn isn't still leader in 5 years due to age or health, and UKIP rises again off the back of a Brexit betrayal that is pinned at Labour's door.
There are others.
It will be funny if the Tories start hoping that Corbyn departs as Labour leader!0 -
Or Orange blankets !old_labour said:
They will probably cover the green benches with newspaper before they sit down on them.calum said:Wonder where the DUP will sit?
0 -
If the headbangers want Brexit now, their best move would be to collapse the Government, and let Corbyn take over.
He will completely screw it up, and they could sweep back to power on a mandate to fix it0 -
Let's just fantasise for a moment that the DUP were willing to go so far as to abstain rather than vote against the friend of the IRA.
Labour have at best 262 +35 (SNP)+12 (LD)+4 (PC)+1(G) = 314.
Labour can only form a government if the DUP are a part of that government and even then it would technically be a minority government. And at that point my capacity for fantasy simply fails.0 -
To get a QS through Labour either need the Tories to abstain or they need the DUP to actively support them. Of course both are possible but I would suggest very unlikely.IanB2 said:
Any government only has to get its QS and Supply through, and avoid a FTPA defeat (which is a high bar). As in the 1970s, losing other stuff makes them look bad but isn't necessarily fatal.Mortimer said:
Remind me how Jezza would form a government?The_Apocalypse said:
Circumstances in which sufficient MPs are prepared to abstain to allow a Corbyn QS through aren't completely inconceivable, although I agree unlikely.
Labour's biggest problem is that, whilst the election has revealed Corbyn's talent as a campaigner, life in a balanced parliament is likely to reveal his shortcomings as a party manager and political tactician.
But TSE is right about the DUP and May
The country is already screwed by this election. The only way it can be saved is with a new Tory leader and another election. I kind of think that is inevitable now.0 -
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Airbus said this before the referendum. Remind me how that worked out?Scott_P said:Brexit is dead in the water
https://twitter.com/rcolvile/status/8738076496949411850 -
Why did you 'hate' (*) them? And do you still hold that view?old_labour said:
I hated George Osborne, Cameron and Clegg when they were in government.JosiasJessop said:In a few short weeks May's undone the twelve years of work Cameron, Osborne and co. did to detoxify the party.
It's incredible.
'Hate' being a rather strong emotion. I can understand dislike, think they were idiots/wrong for the country/in it for themselves/etc, but hate?0 -
What a selection!TheScreamingEagles said:ICYMI last night
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/873700646276431872
On the bright side .... Ruth Davidson as leader would sort out the DUP issue. There is no spoon long enough to sup with the DUP0 -
Your Theresa May mug is still available at the Conservative Party online shop Worth every penny of £15
...Actually there isn't a single true word about Theresa May in that slogan: Strong, Stable, Leadership, In the National Interest.0 -
Indeed.Richard_Tyndall said:
To get a QS through Labour either need the Tories to abstain or they need the DUP to actively support them. Of course both are possible but I would suggest very unlikely.IanB2 said:
Any government only has to get its QS and Supply through, and avoid a FTPA defeat (which is a high bar). As in the 1970s, losing other stuff makes them look bad but isn't necessarily fatal.Mortimer said:
Remind me how Jezza would form a government?The_Apocalypse said:
Circumstances in which sufficient MPs are prepared to abstain to allow a Corbyn QS through aren't completely inconceivable, although I agree unlikely.
Labour's biggest problem is that, whilst the election has revealed Corbyn's talent as a campaigner, life in a balanced parliament is likely to reveal his shortcomings as a party manager and political tactician.
But TSE is right about the DUP and May
The country is already screwed by this election. The only way it can be saved is with a new Tory leader and another election. I kind of think that is inevitable now.0
