This isn't going to work. Lets look at the options whilst I wait for Asda to deliver more popcorn...
1. Con + DUP C&S agreement. Assuming that they manage to get a deal done after saying its done when its not it will be the biggest calamity the Tories could have imposed on them. That the DUP are literally the mouthpiece of terrorists. That they have 1950s views on women and LGBT and abortion. That the Good Friday Agreement mandates the UK government to be an impartial arbiter. That so many Tory MPs never mind supporters won't put up with this for a moment. There won't be an agreement with the DUP but trying to get one will erode and demean ZombieMay still further
2. Con minority government led by ZombieMay. Having struggled to negotiate her way into the meeting venue ("I assure you I am the Prime Minister", "Zut alors, je ne comprend pas"!) she then find the EU negotiators recognise her negotiating position isn't backed by the British people, the British parliament, the Conservative Party and offer her only laughter. At which point she returns to the Commons and thats the end of that
3. Con minority government led by Davis or Johnson. More authority having just been anointed, but still with the same basic problem that they can't negotiate a deal that delivers what they demanded.
4. Labour very minority government. ZombieMay can't get her QS through and resigns the government. Corbyn kisses the ring and enters Downing Street. The Tories choose to abstain whilst they concentrate on stabbing each other. But that short of seats its chaos - and he gets the same treatment from the EU as ZombieMay gets
So it HAS to be another General election. And with the Brexit clock ticking it should be very quickly. But it won't be as all sides will fight over the crumbs. I'd love to say what happens next, but I don't know. Perhaps the analogy should be that very minority SNP government after all other options failed. The Tories need a time out of power to regroup and give CorpseMay a suitable political burial. The longer they remain in office but not in power the more long term damage they do to themselves. For their own good - and for the good of the nation as we try and sort Brexit - they need to go. A minority Corbyn government could - despite the maths - be the most stable and sustainable option right now.
Nope. Whilst we would have to accept freedom of movement we would be able to agree our own trade deals as long as we were not in the Customs Union. I know FF34 said yesterday you can negotiate your own trade deals if you are inside the EU Customs Union but he was categorically wrong. Inside the Customs Union you ceded the right to make trade deals to the EU Commission.
But the EFTA members of the EEA are not inside the Customs Union - for that very reason of course. They are in the Single Market.
Nor is this talk about just accepting Directives true. The EFTA members take part in deciding Directives and are involved in all stages except the final vote. But importantly they can refuse to accept them at the end if they are not happy with them. Again Norway has done this with both rail and postal directives.
The Norway Option is by far the best way to proceed with Brexit.
You can strike your own deals within a customs union with the EU, as Turkey already does. You cannot however apply differential tariffs. Being in a Customs Union avoids origination paperwork that in many cases is more costly to firms than the tariffs themselves.
Correct. Also it can be for a limited range of goods, like Turkey.
Wrong. The mistake you are both making is between 'a' customs union and 'The EU Customs Union'.
Turkey is not in the EU Customs Union but has a bilateral deal - a separate customs union. You should not confuse the two. If we were to remain in the EU Customs Union we would not be able to negotiate our own trade deals.
Very dangerous game being played by anti-democrats and elitists this morning... It's moving at a pace from not just watering down Brexit but to cancelling it altogether (which I knew is what would happen)
Good morning from the Fiefdom of Your Political Overlords
For the umpteenth time the DUP parliamentary party have no interest in getting involved in England Wales & Scotland issues on Social policy. It would take a huge amount of public pressure (which isn't there) or some serious idiocy for them to yield to any such ideas.
They can't anyway, if its EVFEL or devolved.
Ironically the UK-wide issues where the DUP are interested in influence would probably have fairly wide support; pensions, defence, winter fuel allowances.
Red meat in other words. What if for example the triple lock was retained, would the public be more supportive that against?
Most of the DUP voter base couldn't give a fiddlers regarding LGBT rights or abortion, they don't really put much thought to it, it isn't high on the list. Not surprisingly they more concerned with the same issues as the rest of the general public; economic, health service, immigration alongside local issue such as getting the NI Assembly up and running.
I am not a natural DUP voter at all and would not be having them at all during Paisley's day but Ian Paisley Senior is long dead and buried in his sandals. It is not the same party.
If you want the truth of their conservatism over Gay marriage and abortion, the level of enthusiasm over their position isn't particularly high amongst many of their own strategists or their elected members but it is a nod to their roots. They cant really afford to drop say 15% off their voting figures and they know most of the rest of the voting base don't really much care because they have bigger issues, funnily enough like many many people in mainland UK.
They also know its going to go, they will dutifully say they held the position then quietly move on.
Finally snowflakes, if you don't want Corbyn, this is where you are as a ground holding position until there is a better time to go to the country again. The Conservatives failed to get their majority, get over.
I may be barking up the wrong tree, but couldn't a small group of principled Conservative MPs simply refuse to take their seats unless the DUP deal is dropped?
Just a reminder to those true blue Tories who are happy to work with the DUP. They don't want a hard brexit. Indeed I would question the sanity of these people being in favour of OUT anyway if they wanted a soft border. What did they expect?
I may be barking up the wrong tree, but couldn't a small group of principled Conservative MPs simply refuse to take their seats unless the DUP deal is dropped?
Very dangerous game being played by anti-democrats and elitists this morning... It's moving at a pace from not just watering down Brexit but to cancelling it altogether (which I knew is what would happen)
This is really dangerous stuff going on now.
Which is why we need to get EEA/EFTA Brexit on the table PDQ. Theresa is shaming our party and country by staying on as PM and by ignoring that we have no mandate for hard Brexit.
This isn't going to work. Lets look at the options whilst I wait for Asda to deliver more popcorn...
1. Con + DUP C&S agreement. Assuming that they manage to get a deal done after saying its done when its not it will be the biggest calamity the Tories could have imposed on them. That the DUP are literally the mouthpiece of terrorists. That they have 1950s views on women and LGBT and abortion. That the Good Friday Agreement mandates the UK government to be an impartial arbiter. That so many Tory MPs never mind supporters won't put up with this for a moment. There won't be an agreement with the DUP but trying to get one will erode and demean ZombieMay still further
2. Con minority government led by ZombieMay. Having struggled to negotiate her way into the meeting venue ("I assure you I am the Prime Minister", "Zut alors, je ne comprend pas"!) she then find the EU negotiators recognise her negotiating position isn't backed by the British people, the British parliament, the Conservative Party and offer her only laughter. At which point she returns to the Commons and thats the end of that
3. Con minority government led by Davis or Johnson. More authority having just been anointed, but still with the same basic problem that they can't negotiate a deal that delivers what they demanded.
4. Labour very minority government. ZombieMay can't get her QS through and resigns the government. Corbyn kisses the ring and enters Downing Street. The Tories choose to abstain whilst they concentrate on stabbing each other. But that short of seats its chaos - and he gets the same treatment from the EU as ZombieMay gets
So it HAS to be another General election. And with the Brexit clock ticking it should be very quickly. But it won't be as all sides will fight over the crumbs. I'd love to say what happens next, but I don't know. Perhaps the analogy should be that very minority SNP government after all other options failed. The Tories need a time out of power to regroup and give CorpseMay a suitable political burial. The longer they remain in office but not in power the more long term damage they do to themselves. For their own good - and for the good of the nation as we try and sort Brexit - they need to go. A minority Corbyn government could - despite the maths - be the most stable and sustainable option right now.
5 have a referendum on what was offered v WTO exit v remain best runn with stv
Very dangerous game being played by anti-democrats and elitists this morning... It's moving at a pace from not just watering down Brexit but to cancelling it altogether (which I knew is what would happen)
This is really dangerous stuff going on now.
Which is why we need to get EEA/EFTA Brexit on the table PDQ. Theresa is shaming our party and country by staying on as PM and by ignoring that we have no mandate for hard Brexit.
Anti-democrats won't stop now until they've stopped the whole thing.
Very dangerous game being played by anti-democrats and elitists this morning... It's moving at a pace from not just watering down Brexit but to cancelling it altogether (which I knew is what would happen)
This is really dangerous stuff going on now.
Which is why we need to get EEA/EFTA Brexit on the table PDQ. Theresa is shaming our party and country by staying on as PM and by ignoring that we have no mandate for hard Brexit.
The Brexiteers ruled out EEA membership in the referendum so there is no mandate to chose that.
Best to have a new referndum, EEA or status quo. That way we can have a sensible debate and the path chosen has some democratic legitimacy.
Very dangerous game being played by anti-democrats and elitists this morning... It's moving at a pace from not just watering down Brexit but to cancelling it altogether (which I knew is what would happen)
This is really dangerous stuff going on now.
Which is why we need to get EEA/EFTA Brexit on the table PDQ. Theresa is shaming our party and country by staying on as PM and by ignoring that we have no mandate for hard Brexit.
Anti-democrats won't stop now until they've stopped the whole thing.
Which is why we need to take that option off the table, offer a referendum, EEA or hard Brexit. The 60% Brexit will win and we'll have taken a step out of the EU, even though it will be a pretty small one, it will still be a step.
I may be barking up the wrong tree, but couldn't a small group of principled Conservative MPs simply refuse to take their seats unless the DUP deal is dropped?
That will depend on Ruthy.
Paradoxically, the most powerful Tory in Parliament doesn't have a seat in Parliament.
The Conservatives need to decide which is their priority out of hard Brexit and keeping Jeremy Corbyn out of power.
To answer your question, it's achieving Brexit and keeping out Jeremy Corbyn.
I would (reluctantly) sacrifice a full Brexit to maintain office and keep out Jeremy Corbyn. If the choice was no Brexit at all and keeping out Corbyn then I would surrender the keys because I think that would be a betrayal that would rip the Tories apart again in time anyway.
My red line is leaving the customs union. I see absolutely no point in quitting the EU's political structures and staying in both the single market and customs union. EFTA feels about right.
We have to be able to strike our own trade deals.
What are the advantages of being in the EEA compared with the EU? It seems like we would need to accept freedom of movement or some variant of it and could not agree trade deals. We would also have to make enormous contributions to the EU budget. On the other hand, we would be exempt from ever closer union and some of the political diktat from the EU. But at the same time a condition of being in the EEA/single market would be to simply accept the consequences of EU policy making, ie the directives that fall out of Brussels, with no ability to influence them. It sounds like the worst of all worlds to be honest, but what in all probability labour would acheive. The prospect of a successful hard brexit, on the other hand must have completely diminished now after the last election. It rather suggests the appetite for May's hard Brexit is non existent, there is no majority in the country for it, and Brexit is actually one of many issues for voters, they are also concerned about house prices, public services, pensions etc.
So where exactly does this get us? It rather seems to me like the decision is between a chaotic brexit or simply staying in the EU.
Here's what there are majorities for:
More spending on public services and lower taxes. Cheap houses to buy and expensive houses to inherit. Higher wages and cheaper things to buy. More wealth consumption but less work. Higher pensions and earlier retirement. More for people like me and less for people like them.
Or in sixteen words - 'I want it all, I want it now, I want someone else to pay for it'
You could start by sharing what we do have better than we have been doing of late.
Very dangerous game being played by anti-democrats and elitists this morning... It's moving at a pace from not just watering down Brexit but to cancelling it altogether (which I knew is what would happen)
This is really dangerous stuff going on now.
Which is why we need to get EEA/EFTA Brexit on the table PDQ. Theresa is shaming our party and country by staying on as PM and by ignoring that we have no mandate for hard Brexit.
The Brexiteers ruled out EEA membership in the referendum so there is no mandate to chose that.
Best to have a new referndum, EEA or status quo. That way we can have a sensible debate and the path chosen has some democratic legitimacy.
17m people voted to Leave. We have to leave the EU.
Good morning from the Fiefdom of Your Political Overlords
For the umpteenth time the DUP parliamentary party have no interest in getting involved in England Wales & Scotland issues on Social policy. It would take a huge amount of public pressure (which isn't there) or some serious idiocy for them to yield to any such ideas.
They can't anyway, if its EVFEL or devolved.
Ironically the UK-wide issues where the DUP are interested in influence would probably have fairly wide support; pensions, defence, winter fuel allowances.
Red meat in other words. What if for example the triple lock was retained, would the public be more supportive that against?
Most of the DUP voter base couldn't give a fiddlers regarding LGBT rights or abortion, they don't really put much thought to it, it isn't high on the list. Not surprisingly they more concerned with the same issues as the rest of the general public; economic, health service, immigration alongside local issue such as getting the NI Assembly up and running.
I am not a natural DUP voter at all and would not be having them at all during Paisley's day but Ian Paisley Senior is long dead and buried in his sandals. It is not the same party.
If you want the truth of their conservatism over Gay marriage and abortion, the level of enthusiasm over their position isn't particularly high amongst many of their own strategists or their elected members but it is a nod to their roots. They cant really afford to drop say 15% off their voting figures and they know most of the rest of the voting base don't really much care because they have bigger issues, funnily enough like many many people in mainland UK.
They also know its going to go, they will dutifully say they held the position then quietly move on.
Finally snowflakes, if you don't want Corbyn, this is where you are as a ground holding position until there is a better time to go to the country again. The Conservatives failed to get their majority, get over.
Very dangerous game being played by anti-democrats and elitists this morning... It's moving at a pace from not just watering down Brexit but to cancelling it altogether (which I knew is what would happen)
This is really dangerous stuff going on now.
Which is why we need to get EEA/EFTA Brexit on the table PDQ. Theresa is shaming our party and country by staying on as PM and by ignoring that we have no mandate for hard Brexit.
Anti-democrats won't stop now until they've stopped the whole thing.
It will be stopped as a result of democracy, not in spite of it.
As I said a long time ago, Brexit is the last hurrah of British Euroscepticism. It's a dead end, and in a democracy you can't lead people down a dead end for long.
Very dangerous game being played by anti-democrats and elitists this morning... It's moving at a pace from not just watering down Brexit but to cancelling it altogether (which I knew is what would happen)
This is really dangerous stuff going on now.
Which is why we need to get EEA/EFTA Brexit on the table PDQ. Theresa is shaming our party and country by staying on as PM and by ignoring that we have no mandate for hard Brexit.
The Brexiteers ruled out EEA membership in the referendum so there is no mandate to chose that.
Best to have a new referndum, EEA or status quo. That way we can have a sensible debate and the path chosen has some democratic legitimacy.
Of course there is a mandate. The question on the ballot paper was whether we should Leave the EU or not. No mention of what followed. Many who voted Brexit want the Norway option. Which is why May was so dumb as to rule it out.
Very dangerous game being played by anti-democrats and elitists this morning... It's moving at a pace from not just watering down Brexit but to cancelling it altogether (which I knew is what would happen)
This is really dangerous stuff going on now.
Which is why we need to get EEA/EFTA Brexit on the table PDQ. Theresa is shaming our party and country by staying on as PM and by ignoring that we have no mandate for hard Brexit.
The Brexiteers ruled out EEA membership in the referendum so there is no mandate to chose that.
Best to have a new referndum, EEA or status quo. That way we can have a sensible debate and the path chosen has some democratic legitimacy.
17m people voted to Leave. We have to leave the EU.
17m voted for a Leave that wasn't EEA. You can't now impose EEA without some form of democratic vote for it.
Good morning from the Fiefdom of Your Political Overlords
For the umpteenth time the DUP parliamentary party have no interest in getting involved in England Wales & Scotland issues on Social policy. It would take a huge amount of public pressure (which isn't there) or some serious idiocy for them to yield to any such ideas.
They can't anyway, if its EVFEL or devolved.
Ironically the UK-wide issues where the DUP are interested in influence would probably have fairly wide support; pensions, defence, winter fuel allowances.
Red meat in other words. What if for example the triple lock was retained, would the public be more supportive that against?
Most of the DUP voter base couldn't give a fiddlers regarding LGBT rights or abortion, they don't really put much thought to it, it isn't high on the list. Not surprisingly they more concerned with the same issues as the rest of the general public; economic, health service, immigration alongside local issue such as getting the NI Assembly up and running.
I am not a natural DUP voter at all and would not be having them at all during Paisley's day but Ian Paisley Senior is long dead and buried in his sandals. It is not the same party.
If you want the truth of their conservatism over Gay marriage and abortion, the level of enthusiasm over their position isn't particularly high amongst many of their own strategists or their elected members but it is a nod to their roots. They cant really afford to drop say 15% off their voting figures and they know most of the rest of the voting base don't really much care because they have bigger issues, funnily enough like many many people in mainland UK.
They also know its going to go, they will dutifully say they held the position then quietly move on.
Finally snowflakes, if you don't want Corbyn, this is where you are as a ground holding position until there is a better time to go to the country again. The Conservatives failed to get their majority, get over.
Very dangerous game being played by anti-democrats and elitists this morning... It's moving at a pace from not just watering down Brexit but to cancelling it altogether (which I knew is what would happen)
This is really dangerous stuff going on now.
Which is why we need to get EEA/EFTA Brexit on the table PDQ. Theresa is shaming our party and country by staying on as PM and by ignoring that we have no mandate for hard Brexit.
The Brexiteers ruled out EEA membership in the referendum so there is no mandate to chose that.
Best to have a new referndum, EEA or status quo. That way we can have a sensible debate and the path chosen has some democratic legitimacy.
17m people voted to Leave. We have to leave the EU.
Very dangerous game being played by anti-democrats and elitists this morning... It's moving at a pace from not just watering down Brexit but to cancelling it altogether (which I knew is what would happen)
This is really dangerous stuff going on now.
Which is why we need to get EEA/EFTA Brexit on the table PDQ. Theresa is shaming our party and country by staying on as PM and by ignoring that we have no mandate for hard Brexit.
Anti-democrats won't stop now until they've stopped the whole thing.
Just a re-think. Circumstances have changed. We're now going into talks with the most unstable government since the 60's. Nothing wrong with asking the people again whether they still feel the same way they did a year ago.
In US, so cannot see. As happy as a dog with 2 dicks? And pardon my language.
Yep, was very relaxed. Good interview by him.
Even Hartley-Brewer is opposed to the DUP deal based on their social views (she mentioned gay rights, capital punishment and abortion as what she took issue with). She doesn't think it'll work.
So if people don't want anything to do with the DUP what are you proposing?
Another GE? Could very very easily lose that. Allowing Corbyn to have an attempt at forming a government? The Tory base wouldn't agree with that.
Minority government with supply and confidence is being pursued because it's the only possible deal right now where the numbers work and it keeps the government in place.
@JGForsyth: I think Corbyn just implied that Labour would now oppose the great repeal bill
Brexit. Dead.
The great Repeal Bill has no influence on Brexit. It is simply a case of what we do afterwards. If he opposes the Great Repeal Bill then all the EU law currently enacted in the UK falls when we Leave without any replacement being agreed. He is dumber than a bag of rocks and so are you for thinking that will stop anything.
In US, so cannot see. As happy as a dog with 2 dicks? And pardon my language.
Yep, was very relaxed. Good interview by him.
Even Hartley-Brewer is opposed to the DUP deal based on their social views (she mentioned gay rights, capital punishment and abortion as what she took issue with). She doesn't think it'll work.
I think it is time for Theresa to give up. Any kind of formal deal with the DUP will be toxic for us and damage our brand even more than her awful policies have over the last few weeks.
If I were a prospective Tory leader, this is the plan for government I think could win vs Corbyn if we had to go down a second election route:
- 2p off the basic rate, 2.5p on the higher rate (redistributional, only those on £80k plus incomes pay additional tax), increase higher rate threshold to £50k as previously promised. Tax free allowance frozen at £12k for a few years.
- 1p on both employer's and employees' NI.
- £350m per week extra for the NHS by the end of 2021/22 as the main retail offer.
- The 60% Brexit offer - EEA/EFTA, global Britain as the positive vision.
- Ease up on austerity, keep debt falling as proportion of GDP, raise the public sector pay cap to 2% from 1% for everyone under £30k (£35k in London).
- Demolish the buy-to-let sector with a huge LVT (not intended to be revenue raising), 25 year exemption for build/develop-to-let.
- Government commissioned starter homes for first time buyers and government backed mortgages up to £250k (£325k in any London borough) so that first time buyers are able to get mortgages in the inevitable housing crash that follows the previous policy.
- Extend "selective" education to vocational and technical schools and mirror the Swiss education system.
- Abolish tuition fees and bring in a 30 year graduate tax or lower/abolish tuition fees for "traditional subjects". Bring back maintenance grants for nursing.
- New job security rules for gig-economy employees - permanent contract offers, paid holiday and employer's NI to be levied on single company contractors with more than 3 months of contracting with the single company.
- Dump all of Theresa's policies.
It's not in my nature to raise taxes on anyone, but clearly Corbyn was onto something and the party must adapt to this new dynamic, even if it hits some of our supporters.
I think a manifesto like this could win enough of our base and win over enough of Corbyn's new supporters in key areas to win a fairly reasonable majority, we would also be able to win back places like Canterbury, Kensington, Plymouth, Oxford and Croydon which Theresa gave up too easily to chase Blue Labour voters.
Cutting income tax while freezing allowances and raising NI isn't the most coherent of ideas.
But much of the rest is good.
The problem is that Corbyn will promise more and I think people are in the mood to go for the biggest promises.
So more money will need to be found - cancel HS2 and freeze foreign aid.
So if people don't want anything to do with the DUP what are you proposing?
Another GE? Could very very easily lose that. Allowing Corbyn to have an attempt at forming a government? The Tory base wouldn't agree with that.
Minority government with supply and confidence is being pursued because it's the only possible deal right now where the numbers work and it keeps the government in place.
The DUP know this. The Tories will HAVE to give them jam, the alternative is to be out of power for 10 years.
Will it be a People's Brexit or a Banker's Brexit?
It will be a Brexit that will work for no-one. Neither bankers nor the people. Unfortunately it has to go ahead unless there is an explicit vote to the contrary and the EU agree to take us back. Democracy gives people power to make their own dumb decisions.
Ordered the strong and stable mug. I couldn't resist.
I'm treasuring a copy of my Tory election mailing: Picture of candidate with TM 'Joy Morrissey Ealing Central and Acton, Standing with Theresa May'. Reverse side: big picture of TM ''Give me and my candidate your vote ..' The Labour majority in ECA increased from 274 votes to 13,807 votes.
Very dangerous game being played by anti-democrats and elitists this morning... It's moving at a pace from not just watering down Brexit but to cancelling it altogether (which I knew is what would happen)
This is really dangerous stuff going on now.
Which is why we need to get EEA/EFTA Brexit on the table PDQ. Theresa is shaming our party and country by staying on as PM and by ignoring that we have no mandate for hard Brexit.
The Brexiteers ruled out EEA membership in the referendum so there is no mandate to chose that.
Best to have a new referndum, EEA or status quo. That way we can have a sensible debate and the path chosen has some democratic legitimacy.
17m people voted to Leave. We have to leave the EU.
17m voted for a Leave that wasn't EEA. You can't now impose EEA without some form of democratic vote for it.
No they voted for Leave. You cannot just say that one vision of Leave had all their support. Indeed yougov did a poll of Leavers prior to the referendum and found that almost half of them preferred an EEA type Leave - even though it was explicitly pointed out that this would mean continuation of Freedom of Movement. Assuming (and I admit it is an assumption but a reasonable one) that given the choice between Hard and Soft, the majority of Remainers would chose to continue with the Single Market I would suggest there is a clear majority on favour of that option.
Mr. Nashe, by the Conservatives, but not by the electorate subsequently.
However, it is stupid. If a party refuses to govern, what's the point of standing? Electorally, I think it'll work for Farron. Intellectually, it's a nonsense.
Watching Corbyn on marr I came to the conclusion he was never a remainer and is more committed to leaving than any other leader. He's hiding his hate for the institution behind a position which can't be achieved. Given a chance we would be out come what may time for t,he leavers to get behind him if you think it's so important.
Very dangerous game being played by anti-democrats and elitists this morning... It's moving at a pace from not just watering down Brexit but to cancelling it altogether (which I knew is what would happen)
This is really dangerous stuff going on now.
It's quite amazing to see otherwise right-leaning Remainers talking up Corbyn, Europhilia has quite obviously sent them round the twist.
Will it be a People's Brexit or a Banker's Brexit?
It will be a Brexit that will work for no-one. Neither bankers nor the people. Unfortunately it has to go ahead unless there is an explicit vote to the contrary and the EU agree to take us back. Democracy gives people power to make their own dumb decisions.
Given that you have just shown considerable ignorance over the institutions and arrangements of the EU I am afraid you are in no position to call other people 'dumb' for their choices.
@JGForsyth: I think Corbyn just implied that Labour would now oppose the great repeal bill
Brexit. Dead.
There will likely be riots on the street if Brexit doesn't happen.
Bollocks ! Brexit will not command 40% support today.
BREXIT is DEAD IN THE WATER. Get used to it.
Parties promising to deliver Brexit got about 83% of the vote and 88% of the seats. If this election results in Britain staying in the EU without a further public vote of some kind, it would have serious long-term implications for whichever party scuppered it, considering that both Labour and Conservatives relied on millions of Leave voters supporting them.
Lets see if I've got this straight An alliance with the DUP will be fine as it is only the sneering, young metropolitan elite who will be concerned. The same group that we need to win over to ever have a majority again.
Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.
The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.
There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.
It is 1974 revisited.
Why would the government collapse fairly quickly? This looks more like October 1974 than February 1974 to me.
I agree with you, particularly with a new PM in 6-12 months.
This Parliament was never going to do much more than pass budgets and deal with Brexit, anyway. Provided they can find a consensual cross-party approach to the latter they should be fine.
That would take the political genius equivalent of Einstein.
Coming to the conclusion that anybody that wants Brexit to be achieved has got to rally around May and the DUP agreement... If Theresa goes any chance of any form of Brexit will go with her... The Remainiacs on here have made that quite clear.
Nope. Whilst we would have to accept freedom of movement we would be able to agree our own trade deals as long as we were not in the Customs Union. I know FF34 said yesterday you can negotiate your own trade deals if you are inside the EU Customs Union but he was categorically wrong. Inside the Customs Union you ceded the right to make trade deals to the EU Commission.
But the EFTA members of the EEA are not inside the Customs Union - for that very reason of course. They are in the Single Market.
Nor is this talk about just accepting Directives true. The EFTA members take part in deciding Directives and are involved in all stages except the final vote. But importantly they can refuse to accept them at the end if they are not happy with them. Again Norway has done this with both rail and postal directives.
The Norway Option is by far the best way to proceed with Brexit.
You can strike your own deals within a customs union with the EU, as Turkey already does. You cannot however apply differential tariffs. Being in a Customs Union avoids origination paperwork that in many cases is more costly to firms than the tariffs themselves.
Correct. Also it can be for a limited range of goods, like Turkey.
Wrong. The mistake you are both making is between 'a' customs union and 'The EU Customs Union'.
Turkey is not in the EU Customs Union but has a bilateral deal - a separate customs union. You should not confuse the two. If we were to remain in the EU Customs Union we would not be able to negotiate our own trade deals.
Actually the main mistake, which you are repeating and which to be fair the EU itself often makes, is that the EU has a defined Customs Union for the UK to be in or out of. Turkey and the EU have a simple bilateral agreement that dates back to the sixties, before the Single Market, to apply a common customs regime across the shared territory. This helps free the flow of goods. The question is whether the UK and EU will agree a similar free flow regime or will default to standard customs barriers. The only potential reason for imposing those barriers along with the extra costs and reduction in trade with our predominant market would be to reduce our import tariffs in competition with the EU. It's not a great model for us, overall.
- 'she will go in due course' - 'her position is untenable' - 'she is flawed' - 'she needs to reach out' - 'yes' to watering down Brexit - 'the country said no to hard Brexit.' - 'she [TMay] must not turn her back on British business, and she has.' - She is also advocated staying in the single market.
Reading East was mentioned down thread. Rob Wilson's decidedly lacklustre campaign was not helped by his support for the proposed siting of a free school in a very controversial location. He already looked like a defeated man on Thursday afternoon as he half-heartedly tried to engage with shoppers outside a local Waitrose.
Watching Corbyn on marr I came to the conclusion he was never a remainer and is more committed to leaving than any other leader. He's hiding his hate for the institution behind a position which can't be achieved. Given a chance we would be out come what may time for t,he leavers to get behind him if you think it's so important.
I know he has always been a Leaver until recently but I think his current Leave position is based not so much on ideology but on the twin practicalities of getting a majority - not possible without supporting Leave - and, perhaps equally importantly, being able to actually do what he wants to after he is in power. It kind of exemplifies exactly what Leavers have always said. There is no point electing a PM promising change as long as we stay in the EU because so much of the change agenda is not possible under EU law.
Reading East was mentioned down thread. Rob Wilson's decidedly lacklustre campaign was not helped by his support for the proposed siting of a free school in a very controversial location. He already looked like a defeated man on Thursday afternoon as he half-heartedly tried to engage with shoppers outside a local Waitrose.
I presume the University is located in that constituency? It's the common factor in all the most spectacular gains outside London.
Lets see if I've got this straight An alliance with the DUP will be fine as it is only the sneering, young metropolitan elite who will be concerned. The same group that we need to win over to ever have a majority again.
Gotcha
And the other side is:
Cancelling Brexit will be fine as it is only the thick, provincial plebs who will be concerned. The same group that we need to win over to ever have a majority.
Parties promising to deliver Brexit got about 83% of the vote and 88% of the seats. If this election results in Britain staying in the EU without a further public vote of some kind, it would have serious long-term implications for whichever party scuppered it, considering that both Labour and Conservatives relied on millions of Leave voters supporting them.
If the political classes thwart Brexit and keep us in the EU they are playing with fire. There is simply no mandate to do so.
Coming to the conclusion that anybody that wants Brexit to be achieved has got to rally around May and the DUP agreement... If Theresa goes any chance of any form of Brexit will go with her... The Remainiacs on here have made that quite clear.
I'm a Remainer but accept fully that we have to commit to Brexit now, to ignore what the majority of people voted for would be a huge disastrous error.
Soft or hard (hmm that sounds dodgy lol) it has to happen.
Comments
1. Con + DUP C&S agreement. Assuming that they manage to get a deal done after saying its done when its not it will be the biggest calamity the Tories could have imposed on them. That the DUP are literally the mouthpiece of terrorists. That they have 1950s views on women and LGBT and abortion. That the Good Friday Agreement mandates the UK government to be an impartial arbiter. That so many Tory MPs never mind supporters won't put up with this for a moment. There won't be an agreement with the DUP but trying to get one will erode and demean ZombieMay still further
2. Con minority government led by ZombieMay. Having struggled to negotiate her way into the meeting venue ("I assure you I am the Prime Minister", "Zut alors, je ne comprend pas"!) she then find the EU negotiators recognise her negotiating position isn't backed by the British people, the British parliament, the Conservative Party and offer her only laughter. At which point she returns to the Commons and thats the end of that
3. Con minority government led by Davis or Johnson. More authority having just been anointed, but still with the same basic problem that they can't negotiate a deal that delivers what they demanded.
4. Labour very minority government. ZombieMay can't get her QS through and resigns the government. Corbyn kisses the ring and enters Downing Street. The Tories choose to abstain whilst they concentrate on stabbing each other. But that short of seats its chaos - and he gets the same treatment from the EU as ZombieMay gets
So it HAS to be another General election. And with the Brexit clock ticking it should be very quickly. But it won't be as all sides will fight over the crumbs. I'd love to say what happens next, but I don't know. Perhaps the analogy should be that very minority SNP government after all other options failed. The Tories need a time out of power to regroup and give CorpseMay a suitable political burial. The longer they remain in office but not in power the more long term damage they do to themselves. For their own good - and for the good of the nation as we try and sort Brexit - they need to go. A minority Corbyn government could - despite the maths - be the most stable and sustainable option right now.
Does she still support ending WFA in England but keeping it in Scotland ?
I suspect Davidson's popularity would decline somewhat if she ever had to do governing rather than opposing.
Brexit. Dead.
Turkey is not in the EU Customs Union but has a bilateral deal - a separate customs union. You should not confuse the two. If we were to remain in the EU Customs Union we would not be able to negotiate our own trade deals.
This is really dangerous stuff going on now.
For the umpteenth time the DUP parliamentary party have no interest in getting involved in England Wales & Scotland issues on Social policy. It would take a huge amount of public pressure (which isn't there) or some serious idiocy for them to yield to any such ideas.
They can't anyway, if its EVFEL or devolved.
Ironically the UK-wide issues where the DUP are interested in influence would probably have fairly wide support; pensions, defence, winter fuel allowances.
Red meat in other words. What if for example the triple lock was retained, would the public be more supportive that against?
Most of the DUP voter base couldn't give a fiddlers regarding LGBT rights or abortion, they don't really put much thought to it, it isn't high on the list. Not surprisingly they more concerned with the same issues as the rest of the general public; economic, health service, immigration alongside local issue such as getting the NI Assembly up and running.
I am not a natural DUP voter at all and would not be having them at all during Paisley's day but Ian Paisley Senior is long dead and buried in his sandals. It is not the same party.
If you want the truth of their conservatism over Gay marriage and abortion, the level of enthusiasm over their position isn't particularly high amongst many of their own strategists or their elected members but it is a nod to their roots. They cant really afford to drop say 15% off their voting figures and they know most of the rest of the voting base don't really much care because they have bigger issues, funnily enough like many many people in mainland UK.
They also know its going to go, they will dutifully say they held the position then quietly move on.
Finally snowflakes, if you don't want Corbyn, this is where you are as a ground holding position until there is a better time to go to the country again. The Conservatives failed to get their majority, get over.
There is not a single Labour facing Lib Dem defense seat, the most marginal Lib Dem/Lab seat is Hallam.
So not after activating A50 as you told us.
You have got a record of being completely wrong on this issue.
Excellent Marr interview from Jezza. What a difference 13 million votes make !!
Best to have a new referndum, EEA or status quo. That way we can have a sensible debate and the path chosen has some democratic legitimacy.
And pardon my language.
They too seemed like good ideas for five minutes
Come to think of it, the pro-EU view of Davidson would probably prevent her winning a contest.
Hague was unlucky with timing.
The 48% included BIG BUSINESS. Also, the Intelligentsia, and the Trade Unions.
What chances do the 52% have ?
Brexit is dead in the water as I wrote in the early hours on Friday. That is the best outcome of the election.
There is another irony. There was serious talk of the Labour Party splitting. Now the serious talk is about the Tory party splitting.
They'll go down well in the mainland.
As I said a long time ago, Brexit is the last hurrah of British Euroscepticism. It's a dead end, and in a democracy you can't lead people down a dead end for long.
Mr. Y0kel, also, Farron's ruled the Lib Dems out of the grubby business of actually doing any governing.
You can think whatever you like - actions count.
Like meeting with loyalist paramilitary leaders.
Even Hartley-Brewer is opposed to the DUP deal based on their social views (she mentioned gay rights, capital punishment and abortion as what she took issue with). She doesn't think it'll work.
Another GE? Could very very easily lose that. Allowing Corbyn to have an attempt at forming a government? The Tory base wouldn't agree with that.
Minority government with supply and confidence is being pursued because it's the only possible deal right now where the numbers work and it keeps the government in place.
But much of the rest is good.
The problem is that Corbyn will promise more and I think people are in the mood to go for the biggest promises.
So more money will need to be found - cancel HS2 and freeze foreign aid.
The ones with senior members of Sinn Fein? Well they have to don't they, its part of the political settlement here.
Mr. Alistair, mwahahaha!
BREXIT is DEAD IN THE WATER. Get used to it.
Brexit is happening. Probably quicker now, too.
However, it is stupid. If a party refuses to govern, what's the point of standing? Electorally, I think it'll work for Farron. Intellectually, it's a nonsense.
The EU is exclusive to the EEA.
Membership of the EEA was not on the question asked.
People may choose to consider they voted to leave the single market. But they did not.
leaving than any other leader. He's hiding his hate for the institution behind a position which can't be achieved.
Given a chance we would be out come what may time for t,he leavers to get behind him if you think it's
so important.
Not sure what you actually mean by that. There are non EU countries in the EEA.
It's not a good idea to take the words of politicians during election campaigns as gospel truth.
It's how it sounds and looks. The MP in the header piece has it spot on.
An alliance with the DUP will be fine as it is only the sneering, young metropolitan elite who will be concerned. The same group that we need to win over to ever have a majority again.
Gotcha
I notice that the fans of Messiah Ruth never able to say what she would actually do in government.
- 'she will go in due course'
- 'her position is untenable'
- 'she is flawed'
- 'she needs to reach out'
- 'yes' to watering down Brexit
- 'the country said no to hard Brexit.'
- 'she [TMay] must not turn her back on British business, and she has.'
- She is also advocated staying in the single market.
Just as in the Australian republican referendum, a majority wanted a republic but there was no majority for any particular kind of republic.
Sorry. That's democracy.
"It's high time
That you found
The same people you walk on on your way up
You might meet
On your way down."
Cancelling Brexit will be fine as it is only the thick, provincial plebs who will be concerned. The same group that we need to win over to ever have a majority.
Soft or hard (hmm that sounds dodgy lol) it has to happen.