It doesn't matter if Labour could rule or not, all they care about is creating the image that they could so that they can destabilise the government. As I have said, they have gone full populist and when you do that the practicalities of things are not taken into consideration.
Don't get the excuse that "there is no alternative arrangement possible to form a government." 1 Did talks with LD's , SNP, etc. break down in milliseconds? No, nobody even tried! 2 This is NOT a stable arrangement even if it happened! 3 The idea that JC is too incompetent to rule will be greeted with much mirth after the last 48 hours (indeed 12 months)! He could not possibly be any worse!
Anecdote alert. Bloke up the pub last night told my dad he voted Labour for the first time in his life on Thursday. Why? He has six grandchildren and he think it's outrageous that they should be saddled with so much debt if they go to university. And the Scots get it for nothing.
Anecdote alert: I met a fair few people yesterday whilst out and about, and I tried bringing up the subject of the election in as open a way as possible.
One young shop assistant said: "It's terrible the way they slandered Corbyn."
She was probably born after the end of the troubles. If many people feel that way, then it'll explain why the Conservative attacks didn't work.
I said on here before the election that shouting IRA at Corbyn would not resonate with anyone under 35. What a shame for the Tories that the eagerness of the BBC to join the bully-in meant every formal TV appearance focused almost exclusively on nuclear/terrorism issues and not on his plans for the economy. Big turn-off for many who saw:
The IRA issue as arcane and misrepresented The nuclear issue as depressing - if *anyone* presses any button we're probably all finished anyway
What's more, many of my friends were shocked to hear that our policy on nuclear seemed to have evolved from deterrent to first strike. When did that happen?
Labour must now put some flesh on the bones of explaining Keynesianism to the people. That is the necessary preparation for the next election. To explain clearly how the Government budget does not operate like a household budget.
Any government only has to get its QS and Supply through, and avoid a FTPA defeat (which is a high bar). As in the 1970s, losing other stuff makes them look bad but isn't necessarily fatal.
Circumstances in which sufficient MPs are prepared to abstain to allow a Corbyn QS through aren't completely inconceivable, although I agree unlikely.
Labour's biggest problem is that, whilst the election has revealed Corbyn's talent as a campaigner, life in a balanced parliament is likely to reveal his shortcomings as a party manager and political tactician.
As opposed to the brilliance and competence of May?
The Conservatives need to decide which is their priority out of hard Brexit and keeping Jeremy Corbyn out of power.
To answer your question, it's achieving Brexit and keeping out Jeremy Corbyn.
I would (reluctantly) sacrifice a full Brexit to maintain office and keep out Jeremy Corbyn. If the choice was no Brexit at all and keeping out Corbyn then I would surrender the keys because I think that would be a betrayal that would rip the Tories apart again in time anyway.
My red line is leaving the customs union. I see absolutely no point in quitting the EU's political structures and staying in both the single market and customs union. EFTA feels about right.
We have to be able to strike our own trade deals.
What are the advantages of being in the EEA compared with the EU? It seems like we would need to accept freedom of movement or some variant of it and could not agree trade deals. We would also have to make enormous contributions to the EU budget. On the other hand, we would be exempt from ever closer union and some of the political diktat from the EU. But at the same time a condition of being in the EEA/single market would be to simply accept the consequences of EU policy making, ie the directives that fall out of Brussels, with no ability to influence them. It sounds like the worst of all worlds to be honest, but what in all probability labour would acheive. The prospect of a successful hard brexit, on the other hand must have completely diminished now after the last election. It rather suggests the appetite for May's hard Brexit is non existent, there is no majority in the country for it, and Brexit is actually one of many issues for voters, they are also concerned about house prices, public services, pensions etc.
So where exactly does this get us? It rather seems to me like the decision is between a chaotic brexit or simply staying in the EU.
On a serious point, looking at a few blogs from Northern Ireland and the comments, a lot of the Unionists seem concerned that people in Great Britain and the wider world think the whole population thinks that the general public over there think the same as some of the more outlandish politicians of the DUP. Concerned about tourism, inward investment and the general reputation of the place.
Anecdote alert. Bloke up the pub last night told my dad he voted Labour for the first time in his life on Thursday. Why? He has six grandchildren and he think it's outrageous that they should be saddled with so much debt if they go to university. And the Scots get it for nothing.
Anecdote alert: I met a fair few people yesterday whilst out and about, and I tried bringing up the subject of the election in as open a way as possible.
One young shop assistant said: "It's terrible the way they slandered Corbyn."
She was probably born after the end of the troubles. If many people feel that way, then it'll explain why the Conservative attacks didn't work.
I said on here before the election that shouting IRA at Corbyn would not resonate with anyone under 35. What a shame for the Tories that the eagerness of the BBC to join the bully-in meant every formal TV appearance focused almost exclusively on nuclear/terrorism issues and not on his plans for the economy. Big turn-off for many who saw:
The IRA issue as arcane and misrepresented The nuclear issue as depressing - if *anyone* presses any button we're probably all finished anyway
What's more, many of my friends were shocked to hear that our policy on nuclear seemed to have evolved from deterrent to first strike. When did that happen?
Labour must now put some flesh on the bones of explaining Keynesianism to the people. That is the necessary preparation for the next election. To explain clearly how the Government budget does not operate like a household budget.
You mean how the country can permanently consume more wealth than it creates.
Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.
The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.
There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.
It is 1974 revisited.
Why would the government collapse fairly quickly? This looks more like October 1974 than February 1974 to me.
It was the first one that led to the hung Parliament, and Heath tried initially to hang on as a minority government.
The Conservatives have enough votes and enough options to keep going a long time, at least until attrition sets in.
The Conservatives only need to get one of the SNP, the Lib Dems and the DUP to abstain to have a majority. It's unlikely that all three will simultaneously want an election or a change of government.
You are missing the obvious. May is the least able tactician in the party, no way is she capable of the listening and horsetrading needed.
She may limp through the year, but not much longer. The next year is just going to get grimmer for her.
May=/= the Conservatives.
And as an early sceptic of her abilities, I think I can point out that she also has some talents which are currently being ignored by almost everyone.
Such as?
Depending on events I may write a thread header about this subject. But I have many to put together at present and that one might be superseded by events.
Theresa May simply seems shattered right now. She could perform a useful role if she goes back to her key strengths of analysing problems and seeking solutions. Right now she's not analysing well.
In a few short weeks May's undone the twelve years of work Cameron, Osborne and co. did to detoxify the party.
It's incredible.
Steve Hilton's journey is worth looking at in that context. If ever anyone needed evidence that an advertisers job is to sell other people's products and ideas and stick to that they need to look no further.
Do you think Steve Hilton would be a better tampon salesman than you were?
SeanT is a writer of fiction not my biographer. I would like it to be known I have never past or present made a commercial for tampons.......
.........If however the manufacturer of Tampax or any other female hygene products would like to call me to discuss any interesting projects and suitable tropical locations just leave a message on Vanilla.......
Any government only has to get its QS and Supply through, and avoid a FTPA defeat (which is a high bar). As in the 1970s, losing other stuff makes them look bad but isn't necessarily fatal.
Circumstances in which sufficient MPs are prepared to abstain to allow a Corbyn QS through aren't completely inconceivable, although I agree unlikely.
Labour's biggest problem is that, whilst the election has revealed Corbyn's talent as a campaigner, life in a balanced parliament is likely to reveal his shortcomings as a party manager and political tactician.
The short version: Labour cannot form a government that would get a QS passed. More Tory and DUP MPs than everyone else put together.
Don't get the excuse that "there is no alternative arrangement possible to form a government." 1 Did talks with LD's , SNP, etc. break down in milliseconds? No, nobody even tried!
Why do you keep saying this, since both have ruled out any deal?
Look on the bright side. At this rate we can expect an announcement that a Brexit deal has already been concluded next month. And the following month. And the month after that ...
Don't get the excuse that "there is no alternative arrangement possible to form a government." 1 Did talks with LD's , SNP, etc. break down in milliseconds? No, nobody even tried!
Why do you keep saying this, since both have ruled out any deal?
1 Its the first time I said it. 2 They said it in public. No one asked in private.
@RupertMyers: Schadenfreude from @George_Osborne & now Lord Heseltine (also sacked by May) is on Marr describing Brexit as a cancer. A day for revenge.
It doesn't matter if Labour can rule or not! They are not interested in the realities of politics, they are going full populist to oust the current government. They will worry about the small things once they are in power. Welcome to new politics.
Anecdote alert. Bloke up the pub last night told my dad he voted Labour for the first time in his life on Thursday. Why? He has six grandchildren and he think it's outrageous that they should be saddled with so much debt if they go to university. And the Scots get it for nothing.
I'm still of the view that free tuition would be quite regressive.,. it'd be the poorer taxpayers paying for middle class/wealthy students to go to university. The current system is basically a graduate tax, and doesn't impact things like your credit rating.
Would be better just to have that explicitly: graduates pay (for example - haven't done the maths), 1% extra on the base rate and 3% extra on the top rate as a "graduate premium"
Sure, as long as the tax is paid by anyone who has graduated university since 1945.
In a few short weeks May's undone the twelve years of work Cameron, Osborne and co. did to detoxify the party.
It's incredible.
Steve Hilton's journey is worth looking at in that context. If ever anyone needed evidence that an advertisers job is to sell other people's products and ideas and stick to that they need to look no further.
Do you think Steve Hilton would be a better tampon salesman than you were?
SeanT is a writer of fiction not my biographer. I would like it to be known I have never past or present made a commercial for tampons.......
.........If however the manufacturer of Tampax or any other female hygene products would like to call me to discuss any interesting projects and suitable tropical locations just leave a message on Vanilla.......
For 12 years I lived in a loyalist area near Belfast. One day Paisley built one of his churches within yards of where I lived. I could see it from the bedroom window.
For years I had to put up with the "supporting acts" of evangelical preachers who practised their sermons on the locals. They would come out of the car park with a loudspeaker and bunch of supporting acolytes and stand at the gable end of our house and spout their fundamentalist drivel for hours. Anyone who told them to shut up got rough treatment from the acolytes.
I have no doubt that Paisley's congregation voted for Paisley's party. These bigoted fools were probably the main reason I turned against religion. No reasoning person could ascribe to the disjointed medieval drivel that this shower claimed was "the literal word of God".
The Conservatives need to decide which is their priority out of hard Brexit and keeping Jeremy Corbyn out of power.
To answer your question, it's achieving Brexit and keeping out Jeremy Corbyn.
I would (reluctantly) sacrifice a full Brexit to maintain office and keep out Jeremy Corbyn. If the choice was no Brexit at all and keeping out Corbyn then I would surrender the keys because I think that would be a betrayal that would rip the Tories apart again in time anyway.
My red line is leaving the customs union. I see absolutely no point in quitting the EU's political structures and staying in both the single market and customs union. EFTA feels about right.
We have to be able to strike our own trade deals.
What are the advantages of being in the EEA compared with the EU? It seems like we would need to accept freedom of movement or some variant of it and could not agree trade deals. We would also have to make enormous contributions to the EU budget. On the other hand, we would be exempt from ever closer union and some of the political diktat from the EU. But at the same time a condition of being in the EEA/single market would be to simply accept the consequences of EU policy making, ie the directives that fall out of Brussels, with no ability to influence them. It sounds like the worst of all worlds to be honest, but what in all probability labour would acheive. The prospect of a successful hard brexit, on the other hand must have completely diminished now after the last election. It rather suggests the appetite for May's hard Brexit is non existent, there is no majority in the country for it, and Brexit is actually one of many issues for voters, they are also concerned about house prices, public services, pensions etc.
So where exactly does this get us? It rather seems to me like the decision is between a chaotic brexit or simply staying in the EU.
Here's what there are majorities for:
More spending on public services and lower taxes. Cheap houses to buy and expensive houses to inherit. Higher wages and cheaper things to buy. More wealth consumption but less work. Higher pensions and earlier retirement. More for people like me and less for people like them.
Or in sixteen words - 'I want it all, I want it now, I want someone else to pay for it'
Brexit suddenly looks very old fashined. That's the interesting thing about zeitgeist. It comes out of nowhere. Spotting where it's going before anyone else is how the birightest and best admen make the big bucks.
Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.
The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.
There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.
It is 1974 revisited.
Why would the government collapse fairly quickly? This looks more like October 1974 than February 1974 to me.
It was the first one that led to the hung Parliament, and Heath tried initially to hang on as a minority government.
The Conservatives have enough votes and enough options to keep going a long time, at least until attrition sets in.
The Conservatives only need to get one of the SNP, the Lib Dems and the DUP to abstain to have a majority. It's unlikely that all three will simultaneously want an election or a change of government.
You are missing the obvious. May is the least able tactician in the party, no way is she capable of the listening and horsetrading needed.
She may limp through the year, but not much longer. The next year is just going to get grimmer for her.
May=/= the Conservatives.
And as an early sceptic of her abilities, I think I can point out that she also has some talents which are currently being ignored by almost everyone.
Such as?
Depending on events I may write a thread header about this subject. But I have many to put together at present and that one might be superseded by events.
Theresa May simply seems shattered right now. She could perform a useful role if she goes back to her key strengths of analysing problems and seeking solutions. Right now she's not analysing well.
How is your partner doing right now? Getting better, I hope.
To answer your question, it's achieving Brexit and keeping out Jeremy Corbyn.
I would (reluctantly) sacrifice a full Brexit to maintain office and keep out Jeremy Corbyn. If the choice was no Brexit at all and keeping out Corbyn then I would surrender the keys because I think that would be a betrayal that would rip the Tories apart again in time anyway.
My red line is leaving the customs union. I see absolutely no point in quitting the EU's political structures and staying in both the single market and customs union. EFTA feels about right.
There are genuinely no practical upsides to Brexit. Leaving the Customs Union and Single Market would two of the many downsides. Striking our own deals, worse than what we have already, would be a necessity rather than a benefit.
The Conservatives need to decide which is their priority out of hard Brexit and keeping Jeremy Corbyn out of power.
To answer your question, it's achieving Brexit and keeping out Jeremy Corbyn.
I would (reluctantly) sacrifice a full Brexit to maintain office and keep out Jeremy Corbyn. If the choice was no Brexit at all and keeping out Corbyn then I would surrender the keys because I think that would be a betrayal that would rip the Tories apart again in time anyway.
My red line is leaving the customs union. I see absolutely no point in quitting the EU's political structures and staying in both the single market and customs union. EFTA feels about right.
We have to be able to strike our own trade deals.
What are the advantages of being in the EEA compared with the EU? It seems like we would need to accept freedom of movement or some variant of it and could not agree trade deals. We would also have to make enormous contributions to the EU budget. On the other hand, we would be exempt from ever closer union and some of the political diktat from the EU. But at the same time a condition of being in the EEA/single market would be to simply accept the consequences of EU policy making, ie the directives that fall out of Brussels, with no ability to influence them. It sounds like the worst of all worlds to be honest, but what in all probability labour would acheive. The prospect of a successful hard brexit, on the other hand must have completely diminished now after the last election. It rather suggests the appetite for May's hard Brexit is non existent, there is no majority in the country for it, and Brexit is actually one of many issues for voters, they are also concerned about house prices, public services, pensions etc.
So where exactly does this get us? It rather seems to me like the decision is between a chaotic brexit or simply staying in the EU.
Nope. Whilst we would have to accept freedom of movement we would be able to agree our own trade deals as long as we were not in the Customs Union. I know FF34 said yesterday you can negotiate your own trade deals if you are inside the EU Customs Union but he was categorically wrong. Inside the Customs Union you ceded the right to make trade deals to the EU Commission.
But the EFTA members of the EEA are not inside the Customs Union - for that very reason of course. They are in the Single Market.
Nor is this talk about just accepting Directives true. The EFTA members take part in deciding Directives and are involved in all stages except the final vote. But importantly they can refuse to accept them at the end if they are not happy with them. Again Norway has done this with both rail and postal directives.
The Norway Option is by far the best way to proceed with Brexit.
Conservative party leadership elections.A very good rule that's has been profitable for me since I backed Major at 10-1 is to avoid backing the 1st 2 in the market.George Osborne was 6-4 favourite once so laying the front 2 usually bears fruit.Margaret Thatcher came from nowhere and Theresa May was 4th favourite.
Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.
The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.
There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.
It is 1974 revisited.
Why would the government collapse fairly quickly? This looks more like October 1974 than February 1974 to me.
It was the first one that led to the hung Parliament, and Heath tried initially to hang on as a minority government.
The Conservatives have enough votes and enough options to keep going a long time, at least until attrition sets in.
The Conservatives only need to get one of the SNP, the Lib Dems and the DUP to abstain to have a majority. It's unlikely that all three will simultaneously want an election or a change of government.
You are missing the obvious. May is the least able tactician in the party, no way is she capable of the listening and horsetrading needed.
She may limp through the year, but not much longer. The next year is just going to get grimmer for her.
May=/= the Conservatives.
And as an early sceptic of her abilities, I think I can point out that she also has some talents which are currently being ignored by almost everyone.
Such as?
Depending on events I may write a thread header about this subject. But I have many to put together at present and that one might be superseded by events.
Theresa May simply seems shattered right now. She could perform a useful role if she goes back to her key strengths of analysing problems and seeking solutions. Right now she's not analysing well.
How is your partner doing right now? Getting better, I hope.
Much better thanks. He's still got a way to go but the last 6 weeks he's come on in leaps and bounds.
Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.
The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.
There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.
It is 1974 revisited.
Why would the government collapse fairly quickly? This looks more like October 1974 than February 1974 to me.
It was the first one that led to the hung Parliament, and Heath tried initially to hang on as a minority government.
The Conservatives have enough votes and enough options to keep going a long time, at least until attrition sets in.
The Conservatives only need to get one of the SNP, the Lib Dems and the DUP to abstain to have a majority. It's unlikely that all three will simultaneously want an election or a change of government.
You are missing the obvious. May is the least able tactician in the party, no way is she capable of the listening and horsetrading needed.
She may limp through the year, but not much longer. The next year is just going to get grimmer for her.
May=/= the Conservatives.
And as an early sceptic of her abilities, I think I can point out that she also has some talents which are currently being ignored by almost everyone.
Such as?
Depending on events I may write a thread header about this subject. But I have many to put together at present and that one might be superseded by events.
Theresa May simply seems shattered right now. She could perform a useful role if she goes back to her key strengths of analysing problems and seeking solutions. Right now she's not analysing well.
On the bright side .... Ruth Davidson as leader would sort out the DUP issue. There is no spoon long enough to sup with the DUP
Of course the point is that that isn't the selection. Some of them will not stand and there are others not on the list. It is kind of pointless making this kind of list until we know who would stand.
Mr. Roger, you're possible correct on leaving the EU being unlikely.
May (or the PM's) problem is that it's impossible to satisfy those hardline lovers of the eurosausage *and* those hardline haters of the EU. If she had a majority of 60 she could ignore either group.
But what does she do? Proceed with leaving and perhaps Davidson's 13 SCon MPs disagree, likewise the likes of Soubry et al. Halt leaving and cue howls of anguish from hardline EU-sceptics as well as those who think a democratic decision was taken and we must get on with it.
Nope. Whilst we would have to accept freedom of movement we would be able to agree our own trade deals as long as we were not in the Customs Union. I know FF34 said yesterday you can negotiate your own trade deals if you are inside the EU Customs Union but he was categorically wrong. Inside the Customs Union you ceded the right to make trade deals to the EU Commission.
But the EFTA members of the EEA are not inside the Customs Union - for that very reason of course. They are in the Single Market.
Nor is this talk about just accepting Directives true. The EFTA members take part in deciding Directives and are involved in all stages except the final vote. But importantly they can refuse to accept them at the end if they are not happy with them. Again Norway has done this with both rail and postal directives.
The Norway Option is by far the best way to proceed with Brexit.
You can strike your own deals within a customs union with the EU, as Turkey already does. You cannot however apply differential tariffs. Being in a Customs Union avoids origination paperwork that in many cases is more costly to firms than the tariffs themselves.
It comes to a pretty pass when Diane Abbott is accurately ridiculing the Conservative government.
Yep, especially after the campaign she has had!
I'm no fan of Abbott, but she must be feeling a bit smug right now, given that some of the criticism thrown her way was below the belt (Paul Staines/Guido Fawkes).
Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.
The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.
There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.
It is 1974 revisited.
Why would the government collapse fairly quickly? This looks more like October 1974 than February 1974 to me.
It was the first one that led to the hung Parliament, and Heath tried initially to hang on as a minority government.
The Conservatives have enough votes and enough options to keep going a long time, at least until attrition sets in.
The Conservatives only need to get one of the SNP, the Lib Dems and the DUP to abstain to have a majority. It's unlikely that all three will simultaneously want an election or a change of government.
You are missing the obvious. May is the least able tactician in the party, no way is she capable of the listening and horsetrading needed.
She may limp through the year, but not much longer. The next year is just going to get grimmer for her.
May=/= the Conservatives.
And as an early sceptic of her abilities, I think I can point out that she also has some talents which are currently being ignored by almost everyone.
Such as?
Depending on events I may write a thread header about this subject. But I have many to put together at present and that one might be superseded by events.
Theresa May simply seems shattered right now. She could perform a useful role if she goes back to her key strengths of analysing problems and seeking solutions. Right now she's not analysing well.
How is your partner doing right now? Getting better, I hope.
Much better thanks. He's still got a way to go but the last 6 weeks he's come on in leaps and bounds.
Great to hear that. An unexpected illness is really tough.
Mr. Roger, you're possible correct on leaving the EU being unlikely.
May (or the PM's) problem is that it's impossible to satisfy those hardline lovers of the eurosausage *and* those hardline haters of the EU. If she had a majority of 60 she could ignore either group.
But what does she do? Proceed with leaving and perhaps Davidson's 13 SCon MPs disagree, likewise the likes of Soubry et al. Halt leaving and cue howls of anguish from hardline EU-sceptics as well as those who think a democratic decision was taken and we must get on with it.
Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
She, or whoever succeeds her hopefully, should just proceed with Brexit negotiations. There is no vote on them in Parliament over the next couple of years and if Davidson or anyone else wants to vote their own party out over another issue to kill Brexit they can happily suffer the consequences of a Corbyn Government. Whatever happens they will be destroyed.
To understand the sensational outcome of the British election, one must ask a basic question. What happens when phony populism collides with the real thing?
Airbus said this before the referendum. Remind me how that worked out?
Very badly for the UK.
Not at all. Airbus have not left. Just as Nissan and others didn't leave as they threatened when we didn't join the Euro. They have history and we will happily keep reminding people of that no matter how much you don't like it.
Airbus said this before the referendum. Remind me how that worked out?
AIrbus aren't bluffing about moving wing work out of the UK. There was a genuine decision about whether to move the A350 wing manufacture to Germany. The issue then was a lack of skilled mechanics in the UK.
Under corbyn,I can see Scotland going red again like the good old days,so how many extra seats will that give him ?
In real terms, only ones Labour win off the Conservatives.
According to reports of results, Labour came very close (within 1500) and in second place in 20 SNP seats. Davidson did well in the north east and borders, traditional C&U and LibDem areas. However, there is talk about the leadership of the Scottish Labour, it's support for New Labour and the old status quo style of running the party. As for the SNP leadership, found wanting, much talk of getting rid of Peter Murrell, Sturgeon's husband as administrative head of the party. Not just May in trouble.
The Conservatives need to decide which is their priority out of hard Brexit and keeping Jeremy Corbyn out of power.
To answer your question, it's achieving Brexit and keeping out Jeremy Corbyn.
snip We have to be able to strike our own trade deals.
snip
So where exactly does this get us? It rather seems to me like the decision is between a chaotic brexit or simply staying in the EU.
Nope. Whilst we would have to accept freedom of movement we would be able to agree our own trade deals as long as we were not in the Customs Union. I know FF34 said yesterday you can negotiate your own trade deals if you are inside the EU Customs Union but he was categorically wrong. Inside the Customs Union you ceded the right to make trade deals to the EU Commission.
But the EFTA members of the EEA are not inside the Customs Union - for that very reason of course. They are in the Single Market.
Nor is this talk about just accepting Directives true. The EFTA members take part in deciding Directives and are involved in all stages except the final vote. But importantly they can refuse to accept them at the end if they are not happy with them. Again Norway has done this with both rail and postal directives.
The Norway Option is by far the best way to proceed with Brexit.
If we are outside the customs union - what are the economic benefits of being in the EEA/ EFTA? Because as I understand it, the customs union (ie tariff free trade) is pretty integral to the economic functioning of the single market.
I think this would be very difficult to sell to the people that actually voted for Brexit (eg not political geeks) particuarly as FOM would continue.
Nope. Whilst we would have to accept freedom of movement we would be able to agree our own trade deals as long as we were not in the Customs Union. I know FF34 said yesterday you can negotiate your own trade deals if you are inside the EU Customs Union but he was categorically wrong. Inside the Customs Union you ceded the right to make trade deals to the EU Commission.
But the EFTA members of the EEA are not inside the Customs Union - for that very reason of course. They are in the Single Market.
Nor is this talk about just accepting Directives true. The EFTA members take part in deciding Directives and are involved in all stages except the final vote. But importantly they can refuse to accept them at the end if they are not happy with them. Again Norway has done this with both rail and postal directives.
The Norway Option is by far the best way to proceed with Brexit.
You can strike your own deals within a customs union with the EU, as Turkey already does. You cannot however apply differential tariffs. Being in a Customs Union avoids origination paperwork that in many cases is more costly to firms than the tariffs themselves.
Correct. Also it can be for a limited range of goods, like Turkey.
@RupertMyers: "If the Brits were to reconsider... we could talk" EU Spokeswoman on #Marr opens a door for Remain on #Marr
Reconsider leaving the EU ?
The remain headbangers who want this really don't believe in democracy.
This is the fastest way for Labour to lose support and for the return of UKIP.
Huge mistake. It shows Theresa was right that only the Tories could be trusted to do it and why she needed a large majority.
True - but it didn't work out that way did it?
I can't believe she has let Corbyn get so close to the levers of power.
Corbyn was offering a vision of the future which is attractive to many.
We've had years of falling home ownership and rising student debts. Of cuts in public services but the funding of vanity projects. Of stagnating wages and the loss of hope.
Mrs May should not only resign as PM, but as an MP too, so Ruth Davidson can become MP for Maidenhead and PM
No THE Scottish Tories are savouring their best General Election result in over 30 years, but leader Ruth Davidson already has her eyes on becoming the next First Minister.
Nope. Whilst we would have to accept freedom of movement we would be able to agree our own trade deals as long as we were not in the Customs Union. I know FF34 said yesterday you can negotiate your own trade deals if you are inside the EU Customs Union but he was categorically wrong. Inside the Customs Union you ceded the right to make trade deals to the EU Commission.
But the EFTA members of the EEA are not inside the Customs Union - for that very reason of course. They are in the Single Market.
Nor is this talk about just accepting Directives true. The EFTA members take part in deciding Directives and are involved in all stages except the final vote. But importantly they can refuse to accept them at the end if they are not happy with them. Again Norway has done this with both rail and postal directives.
The Norway Option is by far the best way to proceed with Brexit.
You can strike your own deals within a customs union with the EU, as Turkey already does. You cannot however apply differential tariffs. Being in a Customs Union avoids origination paperwork that in many cases is more costly to firms than the tariffs themselves.
No you cannot. As I said last night this is absolutely wrong. Unlike other customs unions, with the EU Customs Union the rules are clear.
"A precondition of the customs union is that the European Commission negotiates for and on behalf of the Union as a whole in international trade deals such as the World Trade Organisation, rather than each member state negotiating individually."
I think it is time for Theresa to give up. Any kind of formal deal with the DUP will be toxic for us and damage our brand even more than her awful policies have over the last few weeks.
If I were a prospective Tory leader, this is the plan for government I think could win vs Corbyn if we had to go down a second election route:
- 2p off the basic rate, 2.5p on the higher rate (redistributional, only those on £80k plus incomes pay additional tax), increase higher rate threshold to £50k as previously promised. Tax free allowance frozen at £12k for a few years.
- 1p on both employer's and employees' NI.
- £350m per week extra for the NHS by the end of 2021/22 as the main retail offer.
- The 60% Brexit offer - EEA/EFTA, global Britain as the positive vision.
- Ease up on austerity, keep debt falling as proportion of GDP, raise the public sector pay cap to 2% from 1% for everyone under £30k (£35k in London).
- Demolish the buy-to-let sector with a huge LVT (not intended to be revenue raising), 25 year exemption for build/develop-to-let.
- Government commissioned starter homes for first time buyers and government backed mortgages up to £250k (£325k in any London borough) so that first time buyers are able to get mortgages in the inevitable housing crash that follows the previous policy.
- Extend "selective" education to vocational and technical schools and mirror the Swiss education system.
- Abolish tuition fees and bring in a 30 year graduate tax or lower/abolish tuition fees for "traditional subjects". Bring back maintenance grants for nursing.
- New job security rules for gig-economy employees - permanent contract offers, paid holiday and employer's NI to be levied on single company contractors with more than 3 months of contracting with the single company.
- Dump all of Theresa's policies.
It's not in my nature to raise taxes on anyone, but clearly Corbyn was onto something and the party must adapt to this new dynamic, even if it hits some of our supporters.
I think a manifesto like this could win enough of our base and win over enough of Corbyn's new supporters in key areas to win a fairly reasonable majority, we would also be able to win back places like Canterbury, Kensington, Plymouth, Oxford and Croydon which Theresa gave up too easily to chase Blue Labour voters.
Under corbyn,I can see Scotland going red again like the good old days,so how many extra seats will that give him ?
Taking seats from the SNP doesn't get him closer to No 10, he needs to take seats from the Conservatives and only a couple of SCon seats are Lab targetable.
For 12 years I lived in a loyalist area near Belfast. One day Paisley built one of his churches within yards of where I lived. I could see it from the bedroom window.
For years I had to put up with the "supporting acts" of evangelical preachers who practised their sermons on the locals. They would come out of the car park with a loudspeaker and bunch of supporting acolytes and stand at the gable end of our house and spout their fundamentalist drivel for hours. Anyone who told them to shut up got rough treatment from the acolytes.
I have no doubt that Paisley's congregation voted for Paisley's party. These bigoted fools were probably the main reason I turned against religion. No reasoning person could ascribe to the disjointed medieval drivel that this shower claimed was "the literal word of God".
They are beyond toxic.
Indeed. There are c 5 million Catholics in GB. I am one though I do not practice. Should I be worried? 'Cos I am a bit.
Mrs May should not only resign as PM, but as an MP too, so Ruth Davidson can become MP for Maidenhead and PM
Don't see Ruth Davidson wanting to be an MP for an English constituency - I think she'll want one in Scotland.
I think every socially liberal individual, every Remainer, every person who wants an outward-looking Britain should be cheering Ruth on right now. It is Ruth, not May who is acting in the national interest right now.
Comments
As I have said, they have gone full populist and when you do that the practicalities of things are not taken into consideration.
1 Did talks with LD's , SNP, etc. break down in milliseconds? No, nobody even tried!
2 This is NOT a stable arrangement even if it happened!
3 The idea that JC is too incompetent to rule will be greeted with much mirth after the last 48 hours (indeed 12 months)! He could not possibly be any worse!
The Brexiteers lied. Again.
On the other hand, we would be exempt from ever closer union and some of the political diktat from the EU. But at the same time a condition of being in the EEA/single market would be to simply accept the consequences of EU policy making, ie the directives that fall out of Brussels, with no ability to influence them.
It sounds like the worst of all worlds to be honest, but what in all probability labour would acheive.
The prospect of a successful hard brexit, on the other hand must have completely diminished now after the last election. It rather suggests the appetite for May's hard Brexit is non existent, there is no majority in the country for it, and Brexit is actually one of many issues for voters, they are also concerned about house prices, public services, pensions etc.
So where exactly does this get us?
It rather seems to me like the decision is between a chaotic brexit or simply staying in the EU.
At the end of a German exchange trip to my school, the band played a small concert, ending with the theme from The Great Escape.
That's not what Keynes advocated.
@hugorifkind: Boris Johnson, Joris Bohnson, John Borison, Bohn Jorison and Liam Fox. twitter.com/ShippersUnboun…
@hugorifkind: Although I'm not actually sure about Liam Fox.
But I do agree that at the next election Labour is likely to see a further recovery in Scotland. Peak SNP has passed.
Theresa May simply seems shattered right now. She could perform a useful role if she goes back to her key strengths of analysing problems and seeking solutions. Right now she's not analysing well.
.........If however the manufacturer of Tampax or any other female hygene products would like to call me to discuss any interesting projects and suitable tropical locations just leave a message on Vanilla.......
Wonder what that Nissan deal was anyway?
2 They said it in public. No one asked in private.
"Comrade Osborne is doing a fine job on Marr this morning."
Welcome to new politics.
The remain headbangers who want this really don't believe in democracy.
For years I had to put up with the "supporting acts" of evangelical preachers who practised their sermons on the locals. They would come out of the car park with a loudspeaker and bunch of supporting acolytes and stand at the gable end of our house and spout their fundamentalist drivel for hours. Anyone who told them to shut up got rough treatment from the acolytes.
I have no doubt that Paisley's congregation voted for Paisley's party. These bigoted fools were probably the main reason I turned against religion. No reasoning person could ascribe to the disjointed medieval drivel that this shower claimed was "the literal word of God".
They are beyond toxic.
More spending on public services and lower taxes.
Cheap houses to buy and expensive houses to inherit.
Higher wages and cheaper things to buy.
More wealth consumption but less work.
Higher pensions and earlier retirement.
More for people like me and less for people like them.
Or in sixteen words - 'I want it all, I want it now, I want someone else to pay for it'
https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/873820946133643265
Before the result was announced, Farage was calling for a rerun.
Nicola Sturgeon has campaigned for a rerun since she lost.
Campaigning for more votes is not anti-democratic. It's the Brexiteers who are shit scared of the voters
But the EFTA members of the EEA are not inside the Customs Union - for that very reason of course. They are in the Single Market.
Nor is this talk about just accepting Directives true. The EFTA members take part in deciding Directives and are involved in all stages except the final vote. But importantly they can refuse to accept them at the end if they are not happy with them. Again Norway has done this with both rail and postal directives.
The Norway Option is by far the best way to proceed with Brexit.
Huge mistake. It shows Theresa was right that only the Tories could be trusted to do it and why she needed a large majority.
Government is hardly strong and stable now is it.
I can't believe she has let Corbyn get so close to the levers of power.
May (or the PM's) problem is that it's impossible to satisfy those hardline lovers of the eurosausage *and* those hardline haters of the EU. If she had a majority of 60 she could ignore either group.
But what does she do? Proceed with leaving and perhaps Davidson's 13 SCon MPs disagree, likewise the likes of Soubry et al. Halt leaving and cue howls of anguish from hardline EU-sceptics as well as those who think a democratic decision was taken and we must get on with it.
Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
Not a great Acronym TBF
I'm no fan of Abbott, but she must be feeling a bit smug right now, given that some of the criticism thrown her way was below the belt (Paul Staines/Guido Fawkes).
Of course if we don't Brexit, none of that happens
You sound just like the democratic EU, keep voting until you vote our way.
Really?
To understand the sensational outcome of the British election, one must ask a basic question. What happens when phony populism collides with the real thing?
The Brexiteers are absolutely bricking it. Scared of the voters. It's not a good look.
@holyroodmandy: .@RuthDavidsonMSP has been star turn on #marr despite not actually being there.
I think this would be very difficult to sell to the people that actually voted for Brexit (eg not political geeks) particuarly as FOM would continue.
We've had years of falling home ownership and rising student debts. Of cuts in public services but the funding of vanity projects. Of stagnating wages and the loss of hope.
THE Scottish Tories are savouring their best General Election result in over 30 years, but leader Ruth Davidson already has her eyes on becoming the next First Minister.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15340674.The_General_Election_is_yesterday__39_s_news__Now_Ruth_Davidson_wants_to_be_First_Minister/
"A precondition of the customs union is that the European Commission negotiates for and on behalf of the Union as a whole in international trade deals such as the World Trade Organisation, rather than each member state negotiating individually."
If I were a prospective Tory leader, this is the plan for government I think could win vs Corbyn if we had to go down a second election route:
- 2p off the basic rate, 2.5p on the higher rate (redistributional, only those on £80k plus incomes pay additional tax), increase higher rate threshold to £50k as previously promised. Tax free allowance frozen at £12k for a few years.
- 1p on both employer's and employees' NI.
- £350m per week extra for the NHS by the end of 2021/22 as the main retail offer.
- The 60% Brexit offer - EEA/EFTA, global Britain as the positive vision.
- Ease up on austerity, keep debt falling as proportion of GDP, raise the public sector pay cap to 2% from 1% for everyone under £30k (£35k in London).
- Demolish the buy-to-let sector with a huge LVT (not intended to be revenue raising), 25 year exemption for build/develop-to-let.
- Government commissioned starter homes for first time buyers and government backed mortgages up to £250k (£325k in any London borough) so that first time buyers are able to get mortgages in the inevitable housing crash that follows the previous policy.
- Extend "selective" education to vocational and technical schools and mirror the Swiss education system.
- Abolish tuition fees and bring in a 30 year graduate tax or lower/abolish tuition fees for "traditional subjects". Bring back maintenance grants for nursing.
- New job security rules for gig-economy employees - permanent contract offers, paid holiday and employer's NI to be levied on single company contractors with more than 3 months of contracting with the single company.
- Dump all of Theresa's policies.
It's not in my nature to raise taxes on anyone, but clearly Corbyn was onto something and the party must adapt to this new dynamic, even if it hits some of our supporters.
I think a manifesto like this could win enough of our base and win over enough of Corbyn's new supporters in key areas to win a fairly reasonable majority, we would also be able to win back places like Canterbury, Kensington, Plymouth, Oxford and Croydon which Theresa gave up too easily to chase Blue Labour voters.
I think every socially liberal individual, every Remainer, every person who wants an outward-looking Britain should be cheering Ruth on right now. It is Ruth, not May who is acting in the national interest right now.