Reading East was mentioned down thread. Rob Wilson's decidedly lacklustre campaign was not helped by his support for the proposed siting of a free school in a very controversial location. He already looked like a defeated man on Thursday afternoon as he half-heartedly tried to engage with shoppers outside a local Waitrose.
I presume the University is located in that constituency? It's the common factor in all the most spectacular gains outside London.
"It's high time That you found The same people you walk on on your way up You might meet On your way down."
Ah Alistair, just when I think I am going to dislike you again you go and do something like that. Quoting Little Feat gets you vast numbers of brownie points and forgives many sins.
Brexit is happening. The leader of the opposition and the shadow chancellor actively want it to happen. Most Labour MPs represent areas that returned strong Leave votes. There is no way on earth that Labour is going to change its position. The key thing now is to get a Brexit that does the least possible damage to the UK economy, ensures all current security arrangements continue and protects as many of the rights that UK citizens currently have as possible - basically the Brexit that Corbyn outlined on Marr this morning. It seems to me that there is a deal to be done in the Commons around that. The key thing is to shut out the swivel-eyed rightists who see the Europeans as our enemies and would have us walk away without any deal at all.
Reading East was mentioned down thread. Rob Wilson's decidedly lacklustre campaign was not helped by his support for the proposed siting of a free school in a very controversial location. He already looked like a defeated man on Thursday afternoon as he half-heartedly tried to engage with shoppers outside a local Waitrose.
Can we have these anecdotes before the exit poll next time please ? Reading East would have been a decent odds Labour winner
Tories can get back from this, but they need to be brave and take the Ruth Davidson, David Cameron route and say no to the easy, tactical DUP hard Brexit route.
Sometimes taking the hard choice going down fighting for the right things than clinging on to power compromising too far.
Coming to the conclusion that anybody that wants Brexit to be achieved has got to rally around May and the DUP agreement... If Theresa goes any chance of any form of Brexit will go with her... The Remainiacs on here have made that quite clear.
They had their fingers crossed when they said they respect the referendum decision.
@JGForsyth: I think Corbyn just implied that Labour would now oppose the great repeal bill
Brexit. Dead.
There will likely be riots on the street if Brexit doesn't happen.
There is probably no majority for any particular kind of Brexit.
Just as in the Australian republican referendum, a majority wanted a republic but there was no majority for any particular kind of republic.
Sorry. That's democracy.
I voted Leave, but I was happy to accept that what kind of Brexit we'd get wasn't going to be in my hands. I was perfectly happy with EEA/EFTA, but what I would say is that the government of the day needed to look at what was going on with immigration. There are plenty of things they could do from the our end to reduce it (e.g. changing our welfare system).
Reading East was mentioned down thread. Rob Wilson's decidedly lacklustre campaign was not helped by his support for the proposed siting of a free school in a very controversial location. He already looked like a defeated man on Thursday afternoon as he half-heartedly tried to engage with shoppers outside a local Waitrose.
Can we have these anecdotes before the exit poll next time please ? Reading East would have been a decent odds Labour winner
Brexit is happening. The leader of the opposition and the shadow chancellor actively want it to happen. Most Labour MPs represent areas that returned strong Leave votes. There is no way on earth that Labour is going to change its position. The key thing now is to get a Brexit that does the least possible damage to the UK economy, ensures all current security arrangements continue and protects as many of the rights that UK citizens currently have as possible - basically the Brexit that Corbyn outlined on Marr this morning. It seems to me that there is a deal to be done in the Commons around that. The key thing is to shut out the swivel-eyed rightists who see the Europeans as our enemies and would have us walk away without any deal at all.
Yes, there is no way Labour MPs for places like Sunderland will go against their constituents wishes on such a fundamental point.
"It's high time That you found The same people you walk on on your way up You might meet On your way down."
Ah Alistair, just when I think I am going to dislike you again you go and do something like that. Quoting Little Feat gets you vast numbers of brownie points and forgives many sins.
I was seriously thinking of a thread header based around that song. One of Theresa May's biggest problems is the entirely needless alienation of some people she needed to keep on speaking terms with. They're queuing up this morning to knife her.
- 'she will go in due course' - 'her position is untenable' - 'she is flawed' - 'she needs to reach out' - 'yes' to watering down Brexit - 'the country said no to hard Brexit.' - 'she [TMay] must not turn her back on British business, and she has.' - She is also advocated staying in the single market.
I'm a Remainer but accept fully that we have to commit to Brexit now, to ignore what the majority of people voted for would be a huge disastrous error.
You would think that by now the whole political class realises that the public are more than willing to disrupt their plans if necessary. There is a sizeable chunk of the electorate who are more than happy to press the button.
Nope. Whilst we would have to accept freedom of movement we would be able to agree our own trade deals as long as we were not in the Customs Union. I know FF34 said yesterday you can negotiate your own trade deals if you are inside the EU Customs Union but he was categorically wrong. Inside the Customs Union you ceded the right to make trade deals to the EU Commission.
But the EFTA members of the EEA are not inside the Customs Union - for that very reason of course. They are in the Single Market.
Nor is this talk about just accepting Directives true. The EFTA members take part in deciding Directives and are involved in all stages except the final vote. But importantly they can refuse to accept them at the end if they are not happy with them. Again Norway has done this with both rail and postal directives.
The Norway Option is by far the best way to proceed with Brexit.
You can strike your own deals within a customs union with the EU, as Turkey already does. You cannot however apply differential tariffs. Being in a Customs Union avoids origination paperwork that in many cases is more costly to firms than the tariffs themselves.
No you cannot. As I said last night this is absolutely wrong. Unlike other customs unions, with the EU Customs Union the rules are clear.
"A precondition of the customs union is that the European Commission negotiates for and on behalf of the Union as a whole in international trade deals such as the World Trade Organisation, rather than each member state negotiating individually."
I think you are talking about the common customs regime that applies to EU member states as a core pillar of the EU. ie it doesn't apply to any country outside the EU and would cease to apply to us when we leave ?
Coming to the conclusion that anybody that wants Brexit to be achieved has got to rally around May and the DUP agreement... If Theresa goes any chance of any form of Brexit will go with her... The Remainiacs on here have made that quite clear.
If the Conservatives keep May and tie themselves to the DUP they are in more trouble than Peter Tatchell at a ISIS Convention.
BREXIT will happen but not the hard BREXIT that May wanted.
@RupertMyers: "If the Brits were to reconsider... we could talk" EU Spokeswoman on #Marr opens a door for Remain on #Marr
Reconsider leaving the EU ?
The remain headbangers who want this really don't believe in democracy.
This is the fastest way for Labour to lose support and for the return of UKIP.
Huge mistake. It shows Theresa was right that only the Tories could be trusted to do it and why she needed a large majority.
True - but it didn't work out that way did it?
I can't believe she has let Corbyn get so close to the levers of power.
Corbyn was offering a vision of the future which is attractive to many.
We've had years of falling home ownership and rising student debts. Of cuts in public services but the funding of vanity projects. Of stagnating wages and the loss of hope.
As I've been saying to people for 5 years. When did the party of buy your own house become the party of buy to rent?
Will it be a People's Brexit or a Banker's Brexit?
It will be a Brexit that will work for no-one. Neither bankers nor the people. Unfortunately it has to go ahead unless there is an explicit vote to the contrary and the EU agree to take us back. Democracy gives people power to make their own dumb decisions.
I am not sure I agree. I think there is a deal to be done. If we stop seeing the Europeans as our enemies and instead approach them as our friends, there is no reason to believe that national leaders like Merkel and Macron would not back an agreement that ensured a close, amicable and fully functional relationship between the UK and the EU27.
Nope. Whilst we would have to accept freedom of movement we would be able to agree our own trade deals as long as we were not in the Customs Union. I know FF34 said yesterday you can negotiate your own trade deals if you are inside the EU Customs Union but he was categorically wrong. Inside the Customs Union you ceded the right to make trade deals to the EU Commission.
But the EFTA members of the EEA are not inside the Customs Union - for that very reason of course. They are in the Single Market.
Nor is this talk about just accepting Directives true. The EFTA members take part in deciding Directives and are involved in all stages except the final vote. But importantly they can refuse to accept them at the end if they are not happy with them. Again Norway has done this with both rail and postal directives.
The Norway Option is by far the best way to proceed with Brexit.
You can strike your own deals within a customs union with the EU, as Turkey already does. You cannot however apply differential tariffs. Being in a Customs Union avoids origination paperwork that in many cases is more costly to firms than the tariffs themselves.
Correct. Also it can be for a limited range of goods, like Turkey.
Wrong. The mistake you are both making is between 'a' customs union and 'The EU Customs Union'.
Turkey is not in the EU Customs Union but has a bilateral deal - a separate customs union. You should not confuse the two. If we were to remain in the EU Customs Union we would not be able to negotiate our own trade deals.
Actually the main mistake, which you are repeating and which to be fair the EU itself often makes, is that the EU has a defined Customs Union for the UK to be in or out of. Turkey and the EU have a simple bilateral agreement that dates back to the sixties, before the Single Market, to apply a common customs regime across the shared territory. This helps free the flow of goods. The question is whether the UK and EU will agree a similar free flow regime or will default to standard customs barriers. The only potential reason for imposing those barriers along with the extra costs and reduction in trade with our predominant market would be to reduce our import tariffs in competition with the EU. It's not a great model for us, overall.
Now you are obfuscating. You spoke of the problems of leaving 'The Customs Union' and then claimed that if we stayed in we could still conduct our own trade agreements. That is absolutely false. If we stay in the EU Customs Union we cannot under any circumstances conclude our own trade deals.
- 'she will go in due course' - 'her position is untenable' - 'she is flawed' - 'she needs to reach out' - 'yes' to watering down Brexit - 'the country said no to hard Brexit.' - 'she [TMay] must not turn her back on British business, and she has.' - She is also advocated staying in the single market.
Bloody hell.
She finished off by describing the campaign as disgraceful.
"It's high time That you found The same people you walk on on your way up You might meet On your way down."
Ah Alistair, just when I think I am going to dislike you again you go and do something like that. Quoting Little Feat gets you vast numbers of brownie points and forgives many sins.
I was seriously thinking of a thread header based around that song. One of Theresa May's biggest problems is the entirely needless alienation of some people she needed to keep on speaking terms with. They're queuing up this morning to knife her.
Always thought the casting-out of Nicky Morgan was particularly egregious.
Edit. Just seen the tweet from Forsyth below also makes the point.
Clearly May can't go on, but another election is an appalling prospect. Therefore the Tory party needs to give itself a break and bring down the heightened atmosphere. Therefore they decide to bow to seniority and ask the Father of the House (one K Clarke) to lead a government (he may not necessarily need to lead the Tory Party).
In light of the difficult times we face he invites Corbyn to be joint DP alongside Ruth Davidson newly elevated to the Lords. Keir Starmer gets Brexit. Yvette Cooper, Home Office. Tory Chancellor and Foreign Secretary.
If it holds we spray some of Corbyn's jam (probably Uni fees in a modified form). We negotiate a 'soft' Brexit (whatever that means.) If it holds then we have an election post-Brexit (Davidson having resigned her seat in the Lords and entered the Commons at a by-election (possibly in Rushcliffe!).
More likely Corbyn goes off in a huff at some point having failed to cope with the realities of power, but the Labour moderates don't go with him. A win-win!
Nope. Whilst we would have to accept freedom of movement we would be able to agree our own trade deals as long as we were not in the Customs Union. I know FF34 said yesterday you can negotiate your own trade deals if you are inside the EU Customs Union but he was categorically wrong. Inside the Customs Union you ceded the right to make trade deals to the EU Commission.
But the EFTA members of the EEA are not inside the Customs Union - for that very reason of course. They are in the Single Market.
Nor is this talk about just accepting Directives true. The EFTA members take part in deciding Directives and are involved in all stages except the final vote. But importantly they can refuse to accept them at the end if they are not happy with them. Again Norway has done this with both rail and postal directives.
The Norway Option is by far the best way to proceed with Brexit.
You can strike your own deals within a customs union with the EU, as Turkey already does. You cannot however apply differential tariffs. Being in a Customs Union avoids origination paperwork that in many cases is more costly to firms than the tariffs themselves.
No you cannot. As I said last night this is absolutely wrong. Unlike other customs unions, with the EU Customs Union the rules are clear.
"A precondition of the customs union is that the European Commission negotiates for and on behalf of the Union as a whole in international trade deals such as the World Trade Organisation, rather than each member state negotiating individually."
I think you are talking about the common customs regime that applies to EU member states as a core pillar of the EU. ie it doesn't apply to any country outside the EU and would cease to apply to us when we leave ?
It is The Customs Union. The one you keep claiming we should stay in.
Here's why hard brexit is utterly dead regardless of the manifesto positions of Labour and Tories.
Complex negotiations back and forth on a hard brexit leaving the single market does not carry support in parliament. With no majority the only form of hard brexit on offer is car crash WTO brexit, not some bespoke deal. Bespoke options are gone.
A car crash WTO Brexit can only be survived politically if the government makes it look like they have chosen it from a position of strength, and have a large enough majority to withstand the inevitable backlash in the following election. Despite the best efforts of the tabloids, people WILL revolt against whichever party lets us crash out of the EU. So without a landslide as a buffer for that, the governing party will be obligated to surrender to the EU's demands at the 11th hour and try their best to present it as a victory, even if that means keeping FoM. It at least gives them something to sell, rather than turning their pockets out and hoping that 'plucky british spirit' rallies round them in an FU to the EU - that didn't exactly happen this time around.
In short - bespoke hard brexit dead, no majority to force it through. car crash brexit dead because a minority government will rather 'cash out' for a soft brexit than go 'double or nothing' empty handed to the electorate. EEA soft brexit (as a transition perhaps) is the only way forward that respects the result of the referendum.
I'm a Remainer but accept fully that we have to commit to Brexit now, to ignore what the majority of people voted for would be a huge disastrous error.
You would think that by now the whole political class realises that the public are more than willing to disrupt their plans if necessary. There is a sizeable chunk of the electorate who are more than happy to press the button.
That's why the 'ruling classes' need to neutralise that chunk and do away with the button.
Some lucky bastard just managed to lay David Miliband as next Labour leader at 9.4.
I'd do it myself but I'm looking to move house shortly, and the contest won't be done by then It might take a while to pay out is the only issue with next Lab leader laying now
Tories can get back from this, but they need to be brave and take the Ruth Davidson, David Cameron route and say no to the easy, tactical DUP hard Brexit route.
Sometimes taking the hard choice going down fighting for the right things than clinging on to power compromising too far.
The Tories need to start putting he country first. They have led us into an absolute shit-storm and were seriously offering out the prospect of destroying the UK economy and the living standards of millions of people as a negotiating position with an EU which they painted as the UK's enemy, even as our real enemies were attacking us in Manchester and London. The Tories need to rid themselves of their destructive, anti-British, Trumpian right wing before it can inflict further harm on us all.
Here's why hard brexit is utterly dead regardless of the manifesto positions of Labour and Tories.
Complex negotiations back and forth on a hard brexit leaving the single market does not carry support in parliament. With no majority the only form of hard brexit on offer is car crash WTO brexit, not some bespoke deal. Bespoke options are gone.
A car crash WTO Brexit can only be survived politically if the government makes it look like they have chosen it from a position of strength, and have a large enough majority to withstand the inevitable backlash in the following election. Despite the best efforts of the tabloids, people WILL revolt against whichever party lets us crash out of the EU. So without a landslide as a buffer for that, the governing party will be obligated to surrender to the EU's demands at the 11th hour and try their best to present it as a victory, even if that means keeping FoM. It at least gives them something to sell, rather than turning their pockets out and hoping that 'plucky british spirit' rallies round them in an FU to the EU - that didn't exactly happen this time around.
In short - bespoke hard brexit dead, no majority to force it through. car crash brexit dead because a minority government will rather 'cash out' for a fot brexit than go 'double or nothing' empty handed to the electorate. EEA soft brexit (as a transition perhaps) is the only way forward that respects the result of the referendum.
Whilst I generally agree with your thrust, the opportunities for Parliament to specifically defeat May on the form of Brexit seem very limited if not non existent. I am not aware of any further vote on the form of Brexit that is required by law under the Article 50 legislation.
Tories can get back from this, but they need to be brave and take the Ruth Davidson, David Cameron route and say no to the easy, tactical DUP hard Brexit route.
Sometimes taking the hard choice going down fighting for the right things than clinging on to power compromising too far.
The Tories need to start putting he country first. They have led us into an absolute shit-storm and were seriously offering out the prospect of destroying the UK economy and the living standards of millions of people as a negotiating position with an EU which they painted as the UK's enemy, even as our real enemies were attacking us in Manchester and London. The Tories need to rid themselves of their destructive, anti-British, Trumpian right wing before it can inflict further harm on us all.
Agreed - my Ken Clarke proposal does just that I reckon. But getting rid of that Tory right means the Labour right reaching out their hands...
Brexit is happening. The leader of the opposition and the shadow chancellor actively want it to happen. Most Labour MPs represent areas that returned strong Leave votes. There is no way on earth that Labour is going to change its position. The key thing now is to get a Brexit that does the least possible damage to the UK economy, ensures all current security arrangements continue and protects as many of the rights that UK citizens currently have as possible - basically the Brexit that Corbyn outlined on Marr this morning. It seems to me that there is a deal to be done in the Commons around that. The key thing is to shut out the swivel-eyed rightists who see the Europeans as our enemies and would have us walk away without any deal at all.
Yes, there is no way Labour MPs for places like Sunderland will go against their constituents wishes on such a fundamental point.
I wonder how many students voted for Corbyn in the mistaken belief that he would stop Brexit.
The Norway Option is by far the best way to proceed with Brexit.
You can strike your own deals within a customs union with the EU, as Turkey already does. You cannot however apply differential tariffs. Being in a Customs Union avoids origination paperwork that in many cases is more costly to firms than the tariffs themselves.
Correct. Also it can be for a limited range of goods, like Turkey.
Wrong. The mistake you are both making is between 'a' customs union and 'The EU Customs Union'.
Turkey is not in the EU Customs Union but has a bilateral deal - a separate customs union. You should not confuse the two. If we were to remain in the EU Customs Union we would not be able to negotiate our own trade deals.
Actually the main mistake, which you are repeating and which to be fair the EU itself often makes, is that the EU has a defined Customs Union for the UK to be in or out of. Turkey and the EU have a simple bilateral agreement that dates back to the sixties, before the Single Market, to apply a common customs regime across the shared territory. This helps free the flow of goods. The question is whether the UK and EU will agree a similar free flow regime or will default to standard customs barriers. The only potential reason for imposing those barriers along with the extra costs and reduction in trade with our predominant market would be to reduce our import tariffs in competition with the EU. It's not a great model for us, overall.
Now you are obfuscating. You spoke of the problems of leaving 'The Customs Union' and then claimed that if we stayed in we could still conduct our own trade agreements. That is absolutely false. If we stay in the EU Customs Union we cannot under any circumstances conclude our own trade deals.
I spoke of the difficulties of not being in a customs union with the EU. I did once refer to the EU Customs Union. It's an easy mistake to make. We're all doing it, including the EU!
On your main point we could, and realistically would need to, make our own deals while having a common customs area with the EU - as Turkey already does. It's not ideal. All this is second best to being a full member of the EU. But as we have democratically rejected the best option we have to choose the least bad alternatives. Being in a customs union with the EU is better than not being in one.
Brexit is happening. The leader of the opposition and the shadow chancellor actively want it to happen. Most Labour MPs represent areas that returned strong Leave votes. There is no way on earth that Labour is going to change its position. The key thing now is to get a Brexit that does the least possible damage to the UK economy, ensures all current security arrangements continue and protects as many of the rights that UK citizens currently have as possible - basically the Brexit that Corbyn outlined on Marr this morning. It seems to me that there is a deal to be done in the Commons around that. The key thing is to shut out the swivel-eyed rightists who see the Europeans as our enemies and would have us walk away without any deal at all.
Yes, there is no way Labour MPs for places like Sunderland will go against their constituents wishes on such a fundamental point.
I wonder how many students voted for Corbyn in the mistaken belief that he would stop Brexit.
Corbyn's ability in the campaign to have the wishes of certain sections of the electorate to be projected onto him was extraordinary.
As was the Tory Party's failure to shown the vision of what a Corbyn lead Britain would really look like. Mould grows on that jam pretty fast.
Brexit is happening. The leader of the opposition and the shadow chancellor actively want it to happen. Most Labour MPs represent areas that returned strong Leave votes. There is no way on earth that Labour is going to change its position. The key thing now is to get a Brexit that does the least possible damage to the UK economy, ensures all current security arrangements continue and protects as many of the rights that UK citizens currently have as possible - basically the Brexit that Corbyn outlined on Marr this morning. It seems to me that there is a deal to be done in the Commons around that. The key thing is to shut out the swivel-eyed rightists who see the Europeans as our enemies and would have us walk away without any deal at all.
Yes, there is no way Labour MPs for places like Sunderland will go against their constituents wishes on such a fundamental point.
I wonder how many students voted for Corbyn in the mistaken belief that he would stop Brexit.
More that his manifesto gave a bit of hope I suspect. It's Osborne and Cameron that have done this long term to the Tories, every single one of @Another_Richard comment is spot on re Housing, tuition fees, and generally treating the youth as a non voting bloc to be utterly shat upon.
@JGForsyth: I think Corbyn just implied that Labour would now oppose the great repeal bill
Brexit. Dead.
There will likely be riots on the street if Brexit doesn't happen.
Leavers are quite thick so a significant proportion of them think it's already happened. I also think another significant proportion are getting quite bored of it and aren't that bothered any more.
Tories can get back from this, but they need to be brave and take the Ruth Davidson, David Cameron route and say no to the easy, tactical DUP hard Brexit route.
Sometimes taking the hard choice going down fighting for the right things than clinging on to power compromising too far.
The Tories need to start putting he country first. They have led us into an absolute shit-storm and were seriously offering out the prospect of destroying the UK economy and the living standards of millions of people as a negotiating position with an EU which they painted as the UK's enemy, even as our real enemies were attacking us in Manchester and London. The Tories need to rid themselves of their destructive, anti-British, Trumpian right wing before it can inflict further harm on us all.
It's the same old story.
A right wing, motivated by Europe, poisoned the well and pushed the Tories away from the centre into ideological almost theocratic positions.
They need to put the Eurosceptics in their box, ditch hard Brexits and remember they win when they focus on a more pragmatic, genuinely businesses friendly policies.
I spoke of the difficulties of not being in a customs union with the EU. I did once refer to the EU Customs Union. It's an easy mistake to make. We're all doing it, including the EU!
On your main point we could, and realistically would need to, make our own deals while having a common customs area with the EU - as Turkey already does. It's not ideal. All this is second best to being a full member of the EU. But as we have democratically rejected the best option we have to choose the least bad alternatives. Being in a customs union with the EU is better than not being in one.
I have no issue with that. Although countries like Norway do very well without being in a customs union. But that is not what the politicians are talking about. They are talking about an option that would prevent us from doing trade deals and is clearly inferior as a Brexit choice.
In light of devolved nature of the Scottish Conservatives, do we know whether the Scottish Conservative MP's will elect their own parliamentary leader as the SNP have previously?
Will it be a People's Brexit or a Banker's Brexit?
It will be a Brexit that will work for no-one. Neither bankers nor the people. Unfortunately it has to go ahead unless there is an explicit vote to the contrary and the EU agree to take us back. Democracy gives people power to make their own dumb decisions.
I am not sure I agree. I think there is a deal to be done. If we stop seeing the Europeans as our enemies and instead approach them as our friends, there is no reason to believe that national leaders like Merkel and Macron would not back an agreement that ensured a close, amicable and fully functional relationship between the UK and the EU27.
You're right. There's definitely a deal to be done. Better than nothing but not as good as before is a big negotiating space. That's the space in which a deal will be found. Crap but acceptable is a realistic, and in the circumstances a worthwhile, goal.
Brexit is happening. The leader of the opposition and the shadow chancellor actively want it to happen. Most Labour MPs represent areas that returned strong Leave votes. There is no way on earth that Labour is going to change its position. The key thing now is to get a Brexit that does the least possible damage to the UK economy, ensures all current security arrangements continue and protects as many of the rights that UK citizens currently have as possible - basically the Brexit that Corbyn outlined on Marr this morning. It seems to me that there is a deal to be done in the Commons around that. The key thing is to shut out the swivel-eyed rightists who see the Europeans as our enemies and would have us walk away without any deal at all.
Yes, there is no way Labour MPs for places like Sunderland will go against their constituents wishes on such a fundamental point.
I wonder how many students voted for Corbyn in the mistaken belief that he would stop Brexit.
More that his manifesto gave a bit of hope I suspect. It's Osborne and Cameron that have done this long term to the Tories, every single one of @Another_Richard comment is spot on re Housing, tuition fees, and generally treating the youth as a non voting bloc to be utterly shat upon.
Yes, PBers are making the same mistake they did pre-election - underestimating young people. The reality is most young people know that Corbyn will not 'stop Brexit' but see Labour as the chance to secure a soft Brexit.
@JGForsyth: I think Corbyn just implied that Labour would now oppose the great repeal bill
Brexit. Dead.
There will likely be riots on the street if Brexit doesn't happen.
Leavers are quite thick so a significant proportion of them think it's already happened. I also think another significant proportion are getting quite bored of it and aren't that bothered any more.
@JGForsyth: I think Corbyn just implied that Labour would now oppose the great repeal bill
Brexit. Dead.
There will likely be riots on the street if Brexit doesn't happen.
Leavers are quite thick so a significant proportion of them think it's already happened. I also think another significant proportion are getting quite bored of it and aren't that bothered any more.
I see ultra Remainers have taken up sneering at those they disagree with again, then?
The weird thing was that to the extent that there was much discussion on Brexit in the GE there was pretty close to a consensus. Both Labour and the Tories want-
Tariff free trade with the Single Market. Some restrictions on freedom of movement for the low skilled but recognition our skill shortages make ongoing immigration important. The right to make our own laws, ie no longer subject to the CJE. Close co-operation with the EU on a range of matters including security. What we can get on access for services etc. (mutual recognition of regulation in financial services etc) Control of our own waters and fishing rights.
Neither of the main parties ruled out making some ongoing contribution to the EU to obtain these benefits, albeit both parties expect this to be modest and much, much less than our current net contribution.
One of the reasons Brexit got so little traction was that it was difficult to find a disagreement, except with the Lib Dems and who was listening to them? Should Labour be invited to put someone on the Brexit negotiating team? Why not?
Anecdote alert. Bloke up the pub last night told my dad he voted Labour for the first time in his life on Thursday. Why? He has six grandchildren and he think it's outrageous that they should be saddled with so much debt if they go to university. And the Scots get it for nothing.
Did you explain that due to Barnett consequentials, the impecunious Jocks would receive even more hard earned English pounds if student debt was cancelled?
How does it work at present? Does the funding come from money raised in Scotland?
Of course it does , they take all our money and decide how much we get back to spend after they have deducted all the money for their pet projects.
Will it be a People's Brexit or a Banker's Brexit?
It will be a Brexit that will work for no-one. Neither bankers nor the people. Unfortunately it has to go ahead unless there is an explicit vote to the contrary and the EU agree to take us back. Democracy gives people power to make their own dumb decisions.
I am not sure I agree. I think there is a deal to be done. If we stop seeing the Europeans as our enemies and instead approach them as our friends, there is no reason to believe that national leaders like Merkel and Macron would not back an agreement that ensured a close, amicable and fully functional relationship between the UK and the EU27.
You're right. There's definitely a deal to be done. Better than nothing but not as good as before is a big negotiating space. That's the space in which a deal will be found. Crap but acceptable is a realistic, and in the circumstances a worthwhile, goal.
As always, a bad deal in your opinion. For me EEA/EFTA would be optimal. You are starting from the basic assumption that anything which isn't EU membership is worse. Until you understand that the British people voted to leave the EU and that any deal which takes us out of the EU is better, your opinions and therefore posts are complete rubbish.
Will it be a People's Brexit or a Banker's Brexit?
It will be a Brexit that will work for no-one. Neither bankers nor the people. Unfortunately it has to go ahead unless there is an explicit vote to the contrary and the EU agree to take us back. Democracy gives people power to make their own dumb decisions.
I am not sure I agree. I think there is a deal to be done. If we stop seeing the Europeans as our enemies and instead approach them as our friends, there is no reason to believe that national leaders like Merkel and Macron would not back an agreement that ensured a close, amicable and fully functional relationship between the UK and the EU27.
You're right. There's definitely a deal to be done. Better than nothing but not as good as before is a big negotiating space. That's the space in which a deal will be found. Crap but acceptable is a realistic, and in the circumstances a worthwhile, goal.
First ask Mr Juncker very nicely to stop the clock ticking.
In hindsight, it pays not to be rude to people who you might have to grovel to in a few weeks time.
Brexit is happening. The leader of the opposition and the shadow chancellor actively want it to happen. Most Labour MPs represent areas that returned strong Leave votes. There is no way on earth that Labour is going to change its position. The key thing now is to get a Brexit that does the least possible damage to the UK economy, ensures all current security arrangements continue and protects as many of the rights that UK citizens currently have as possible - basically the Brexit that Corbyn outlined on Marr this morning. It seems to me that there is a deal to be done in the Commons around that. The key thing is to shut out the swivel-eyed rightists who see the Europeans as our enemies and would have us walk away without any deal at all.
Yes, there is no way Labour MPs for places like Sunderland will go against their constituents wishes on such a fundamental point.
I wonder how many students voted for Corbyn in the mistaken belief that he would stop Brexit.
More that his manifesto gave a bit of hope I suspect. It's Osborne and Cameron that have done this long term to the Tories, every single one of @Another_Richard comment is spot on re Housing, tuition fees, and generally treating the youth as a non voting bloc to be utterly shat upon.
Yes, PBers are making the same mistake they did pre-election - underestimating young people. The reality is most young people know that Corbyn will not 'stop Brexit' but see Labour as the chance to secure a soft Brexit.
Which is odd because Corbyn and Labour in general committed to leaving the single market, we completely failed to make that point and force Corbyn to say that a Labour government would take Britain out of the single market, exactly like Theresa May's Tories.
The weird thing was that to the extent that there was much discussion on Brexit in the GE there was pretty close to a consensus. Both Labour and the Tories want-
Tariff free trade with the Single Market. Some restrictions on freedom of movement for the low skilled but recognition our skill shortages make ongoing immigration important. The right to make our own laws, ie no longer subject to the CJE. Close co-operation with the EU on a range of matters including security. What we can get on access for services etc. (mutual recognition of regulation in financial services etc) Control of our own waters and fishing rights.
Neither of the main parties ruled out making some ongoing contribution to the EU to obtain these benefits, albeit both parties expect this to be modest and much, much less than our current net contribution.
One of the reasons Brexit got so little traction was that it was difficult to find a disagreement, except with the Lib Dems and who was listening to them? Should Labour be invited to put someone on the Brexit negotiating team? Why not?
The fly in the ointment is that contradiction between the Single Market and restrictions of Freedom of Movement. The two are basically incompatible. One has to give and no one seems to be willing to bite the bullet and make that explicit to the public. We still have polls showing that 40% plus of the public want both Single Market access/membership (I do know they are different) and the end to Freedom of Movement. They need to be told clearly by all parties that this is not possible.
For 12 years I lived in a loyalist area near Belfast. One day Paisley built one of his churches within yards of where I lived. I could see it from the bedroom window.
For years I had to put up with the "supporting acts" of evangelical preachers who practised their sermons on the locals. They would come out of the car park with a loudspeaker and bunch of supporting acolytes and stand at the gable end of our house and spout their fundamentalist drivel for hours. Anyone who told them to shut up got rough treatment from the acolytes.
I have no doubt that Paisley's congregation voted for Paisley's party. These bigoted fools were probably the main reason I turned against religion. No reasoning person could ascribe to the disjointed medieval drivel that this shower claimed was "the literal word of God".
They are beyond toxic.
Indeed. There are c 5 million Catholics in GB. I am one though I do not practice. Should I be worried? 'Cos I am a bit.
No.
The DUP are such extreme fruitcakes that anything they propose would never pass. So they will propose nothing new. However they will not support any socially progressive legislation but sufficient numbers of Labour or Liberals will.
What the DUP will do is vote as directed by Mrs May in return for investment in their pork barrels.
Cash for votes. Yay! Another scandal in the making
The weird thing was that to the extent that there was much discussion on Brexit in the GE there was pretty close to a consensus. Both Labour and the Tories want-
Tariff free trade with the Single Market. Some restrictions on freedom of movement for the low skilled but recognition our skill shortages make ongoing immigration important. The right to make our own laws, ie no longer subject to the CJE. Close co-operation with the EU on a range of matters including security. What we can get on access for services etc. (mutual recognition of regulation in financial services etc) Control of our own waters and fishing rights.
Neither of the main parties ruled out making some ongoing contribution to the EU to obtain these benefits, albeit both parties expect this to be modest and much, much less than our current net contribution.
One of the reasons Brexit got so little traction was that it was difficult to find a disagreement, except with the Lib Dems and who was listening to them? Should Labour be invited to put someone on the Brexit negotiating team? Why not?
That wasn't the way voting went. Voters perceived a significant difference between the two parties, and hence the shocking mapping of so many, almost unprecedented, labour seat-takings, onto clearly remain areas. If Labour don't understand that this reaction against any harder version of Brexit was a large part of their new opposition, and ultimately possibly Government, mandate, they would be making a very serious mistake indeed - but I would think they know that.
The British people are inherently fair and one thing they do not like is treacherous back-stabbers. I would say George Osborne is a "dead man walking" if he ever thinks he can get become Conservative Leader in the future.
I also expect Theresa May, as she is now the "under-dog" will start to get the sympathy vote in a few days because that is how we are.
There is an interviewer called Gordon Brewer on BBC Scotland whose unionist bbias is astounding and getting worse by the second.He should stand for election and see how he gets on.
Seems to me the most stable government right now is to reluctantly back May and this DUP confidence & supply. Not trigger a leadership contest or force her out. Unite behind May even if behind the scenes or in your mind you think she has to go.
Here is the Brexit solution that satisfies everyone and no-one:
We go for an accelerated move to EFTA/EEA (which, as it means continued payments, means we can largely shelve the money issue with the EU).
We can largely take off the shelf treaties for this, and we could get in done by mid to end 2018.
We stay in the customs union for two years post EFTA/EEA, and we agree (and pass legislation now for) a referendum by AV for 2023/4 on: Rejoin EU, Stick with EFTA/EEA, Go for "Complete Independence".
If we go for Complete Independence in 2023, at least we will have replaced the EU treaties with (for example) Mexico, with ones of our own so it won't be such a heart attack to the British economy. If we stick with EFTA/EEA, great. If we decide to go back to the EU (which would, I suspect, involve joining Schengen and the Euro), then that is also the people's will.
@JGForsyth: I think Corbyn just implied that Labour would now oppose the great repeal bill
Brexit. Dead.
There will likely be riots on the street if Brexit doesn't happen.
Bollocks ! Brexit will not command 40% support today.
BREXIT is DEAD IN THE WATER. Get used to it.
Survation had Leave in 49% yesterday.
There lies the problem. The country is utterly irrevocably divided on Brexit.
In my view, Cameron should not have resigned and should not have allowed the meme to evolve that this was a great decisive victory.
He should have got on the first Eurostar to Brussels and asked for help on free movement with the clear implication that if not he would issue A50 on his return. I suspect there may have been grounds for a deal.
The weird thing was that to the extent that there was much discussion on Brexit in the GE there was pretty close to a consensus. Both Labour and the Tories want-
Tariff free trade with the Single Market. Some restrictions on freedom of movement for the low skilled but recognition our skill shortages make ongoing immigration important. The right to make our own laws, ie no longer subject to the CJE. Close co-operation with the EU on a range of matters including security. What we can get on access for services etc. (mutual recognition of regulation in financial services etc) Control of our own waters and fishing rights.
Neither of the main parties ruled out making some ongoing contribution to the EU to obtain these benefits, albeit both parties expect this to be modest and much, much less than our current net contribution.
One of the reasons Brexit got so little traction was that it was difficult to find a disagreement, except with the Lib Dems and who was listening to them? Should Labour be invited to put someone on the Brexit negotiating team? Why not?
The fly in the ointment is that contradiction between the Single Market and restrictions of Freedom of Movement. The two are basically incompatible. One has to give and no one seems to be willing to bite the bullet and make that explicit to the public. We still have polls showing that 40% plus of the public want both Single Market access/membership (I do know they are different) and the end to Freedom of Movement. They need to be told clearly by all parties that this is not possible.
I don't think people want to be in the Single Market, and that is not just immigration. Being in the Single Market means accepting EU law across a range of EU areas of competence. But if Canada can have tariff free access to the Single Market I don't really see why we can't. The incentives to both sides to agree to such a deal are huge and obvious. And if that involves some form of fast track for EU citizens wanting to come here to work I for one have no problem with that.
- 'she will go in due course' - 'her position is untenable' - 'she is flawed' - 'she needs to reach out' - 'yes' to watering down Brexit - 'the country said no to hard Brexit.' - 'she [TMay] must not turn her back on British business, and she has.' - She is also advocated staying in the single market.
Bloody hell.
She finished off by describing the campaign as disgraceful.
Pretty much what she said at 4am from her count in Broxtowe.
I can't recall seeing someone so angry on live TV.
Coming to the conclusion that anybody that wants Brexit to be achieved has got to rally around May and the DUP agreement... If Theresa goes any chance of any form of Brexit will go with her... The Remainiacs on here have made that quite clear.
If the Conservatives keep May and tie themselves to the DUP they are in more trouble than Peter Tatchell at a ISIS Convention.
BREXIT will happen but not the hard BREXIT that May wanted.
Jack, this may be one of the last posts I will post on a Sunday as the 'Keep the Sabbath Sacred Act 2017' will soon be put on the floor of Westminster.
Turn it the other way, the DUP do not want to be tied to the Conservatives.
What the DUP manifesto both reveals and hides is that the party has turned more right on economics over the recent years but traditionally the DUP was probably left of centre-ish on economic issues. A large amount of their gains and vital holds on Thursday were down to working class turning out this time. A working class that has long had a bit of on-off relationship with the DUP.
As it is, I get the point of the potential damage for the Conservatives and given my voting preference is Conservative (they don't often stand in West Belfast, I have no idea why...) this is not an ideal situation.
I was aware of some of the DUP list on Friday and it does have some things that are red meat for DUP unionists (certainly not every unionist) here but has precisely no impact on anything east of the County Down coast. On national level issues the DUP probably isn't far off in its shopping list to what many elsewhere in the UK would go for either.
One note of caution for Labour. I think they have peaked in vote terms, they are highly dependent on a different distribution of votes next time or the Conservative vote dropping if the Conservatives get a decent new leader. I'm not sure they can depend on either.
The problem for the Conservatives is who to replace May with. The obvious counter to Corbyn is Boris. The intellectuals may not not have him but the guy can win stuff. I'm no fan but acknowledge his capacity.
Seems to me the most stable government right now is to reluctantly back May and this DUP supply and confidence. Not trigger a leadership contest or force her out. Unite behind May even if behind the scenes or in your mind you think she has to go.
Put the country first before the party.
She is not credible to negotiate Brexit. The national interest demands a new leader and PM.
The Brexit clock is ticking. But we find ourselves in the odd position where the government have no authority to negotiate the deal they were after and the EU aren't in a position to give anything that resembles it. And there isn't the time to negotiate much of anything anyway.
So with "we are leaving" agreed by all sides, the question simply remains "to go where". What can this government and this corpse PM negotiate in the timescale we have? And the answer to that is "not a lot". A no deal hard Brexit is dead, so we have to have a softer deal but don't have the time to negotiate one.
A few hard realities exist. No deal means no customs deal. Which means our ports clog up immediately with trucks unable to enter or exit. Which means we find empty supermarket shelves inside a week and riots follow. No deal means the likes of Airbus and BMW and Nissan switching production elsewhere.
As a bare minimum we need the customs union, and retaining membership of that we may as well retain the single market. And thats a deal that we can do pretty simply and quickly. Rejoin EFTA. The bilateral deal between the EU and EFTA is already there. As a starting position it is lunacy not to jump at this to protect against the grotesque chaos of no deal. Problem again is ZombieMay who invested heavily in No Deal.
This is why she cannot continue. No authority in her own party. A coalition of chaos with terrorist sympathisers. No traction with Europe. A political instinct thats a proven liability. If the Tories can't set aside their desire to cling to power and appoint someone who can do the job, they should resign the government. In the national interest
One lesson the conservatives will have to learn pretty quickly, is how they can circumvent the "left-wing broadcast" media. There was very little scrutiny of Labour's policies, or Jeremy Corbyn for that matter.
Brexit is happening. The leader of the opposition and the shadow chancellor actively want it to happen. Most Labour MPs represent areas that returned strong Leave votes. There is no way on earth that Labour is going to change its position. The key thing now is to get a Brexit that does the least possible damage to the UK economy, ensures all current security arrangements continue and protects as many of the rights that UK citizens currently have as possible - basically the Brexit that Corbyn outlined on Marr this morning. It seems to me that there is a deal to be done in the Commons around that. The key thing is to shut out the swivel-eyed rightists who see the Europeans as our enemies and would have us walk away without any deal at all.
Yes, there is no way Labour MPs for places like Sunderland will go against their constituents wishes on such a fundamental point.
I wonder how many students voted for Corbyn in the mistaken belief that he would stop Brexit.
More that his manifesto gave a bit of hope I suspect. It's Osborne and Cameron that have done this long term to the Tories, every single one of @Another_Richard comment is spot on re Housing, tuition fees, and generally treating the youth as a non voting bloc to be utterly shat upon.
Yes, PBers are making the same mistake they did pre-election - underestimating young people. The reality is most young people know that Corbyn will not 'stop Brexit' but see Labour as the chance to secure a soft Brexit.
Which is odd because Corbyn and Labour in general committed to leaving the single market, we completely failed to make that point and force Corbyn to say that a Labour government would take Britain out of the single market, exactly like Theresa May's Tories.
It's what the parties want to replace it that is the big difference, as well as the level of ongoing cooperation with the EU27.
Brexit is happening. The leader of the opposition and the shadow chancellor actively want it to happen. Most Labour MPs represent areas that returned strong Leave votes. There is no way on earth that Labour is going to change its position. The key thing now is to get a Brexit that does the least possible damage to the UK economy, ensures all current security arrangements continue and protects as many of the rights that UK citizens currently have as possible - basically the Brexit that Corbyn outlined on Marr this morning. It seems to me that there is a deal to be done in the Commons around that. The key thing is to shut out the swivel-eyed rightists who see the Europeans as our enemies and would have us walk away without any deal at all.
Yes, there is no way Labour MPs for places like Sunderland will go against their constituents wishes on such a fundamental point.
I wonder how many students voted for Corbyn in the mistaken belief that he would stop Brexit.
More that his manifesto gave a bit of hope I suspect. It's Osborne and Cameron that have done this long term to the Tories, every single one of @Another_Richard comment is spot on re Housing, tuition fees, and generally treating the youth as a non voting bloc to be utterly shat upon.
Yes, PBers are making the same mistake they did pre-election - underestimating young people. The reality is most young people know that Corbyn will not 'stop Brexit' but see Labour as the chance to secure a soft Brexit.
A party standing on ending tuiition fees / fixing the housing market could probably slip war with France and the sacrifice of the firstborn into its manifesto and still win the 18-30 demographic with a landslide.
The irony is that for all their virtue signalling they are very much 'me, me, me' voters and once they became homeowners their views would probably change.
Make no mistake, it's housing and tuition that's driving out the young. Got chatting yesterday to a recent grad. 25 years old, intelligent, good job, over 30k in debt and in his own words, no chance of ever buying a house. Seven people in a four bedroom house share. Wouldn't you vote for jam?
Here is the Brexit solution that satisfies everyone and no-one:
We go for an accelerated move to EFTA/EEA (which, as it means continued payments, means we can largely shelve the money issue with the EU).
We can largely take off the shelf treaties for this, and we could get in done by mid to end 2018.
We stay in the customs union for two years post EFTA/EEA, and we agree (and pass legislation now for) a referendum by AV for 2023/4 on: Rejoin EU, Stick with EFTA/EEA, Go for "Complete Independence".
If we go for Complete Independence in 2023, at least we will have replaced the EU treaties with (for example) Mexico, with ones of our own so it won't be such a heart attack to the British economy. If we stick with EFTA/EEA, great. If we decide to go back to the EU (which would, I suspect, involve joining Schengen and the Euro), then that is also the people's will.
It's a horrible fudge, but it probably works.
Far too nuanced, sensible and pragmatic to ever work.
One lesson the conservatives will have to learn pretty quickly, is how they can circumvent the "left-wing broadcast" media. There was very little scrutiny of Labour's policies, or Jeremy Corbyn for that matter.
The weird thing was that to the extent that there was much discussion on Brexit in the GE there was pretty close to a consensus. Both Labour and the Tories want-
Tariff free trade with the Single Market. Some restrictions on freedom of movement for the low skilled but recognition our skill shortages make ongoing immigration important. The right to make our own laws, ie no longer subject to the CJE. Close co-operation with the EU on a range of matters including security. What we can get on access for services etc. (mutual recognition of regulation in financial services etc) Control of our own waters and fishing rights.
Neither of the main parties ruled out making some ongoing contribution to the EU to obtain these benefits, albeit both parties expect this to be modest and much, much less than our current net contribution.
One of the reasons Brexit got so little traction was that it was difficult to find a disagreement, except with the Lib Dems and who was listening to them? Should Labour be invited to put someone on the Brexit negotiating team? Why not?
That wasn't the way voting went. Voters perceived a significant difference between the two parties, and hence the shocking mapping of so many, almost unprecedented, labour seat-takings, onto clearly remain areas. If Labour don't understand that this reaction against any harder version of Brexit was a large part of their new opposition, and ultimately possibly Government, mandate, they would be making a very serious mistake indeed - but I would think they know that.
I distinctly heard Corbyn saying that freedom of movement had caused "unfair" competition for the low skilled hurting their earning capacity and had to stop. More than once. I accept not everyone was paying attention but no one can claim he said otherwise.
Seems to me the most stable government right now is to reluctantly back May and this DUP supply and confidence. Not trigger a leadership contest or force her out. Unite behind May even if behind the scenes or in your mind you think she has to go.
Put the country first before the party.
She is not credible to negotiate Brexit. The national interest demands a new leader and PM.
That is the bottom line. She needs to go. As soon as the leadership election is done, certainly by the Tory conference in October.
The Brexit clock is ticking. But we find ourselves in the odd position where the government have no authority to negotiate the deal they were after and the EU aren't in a position to give anything that resembles it. And there isn't the time to negotiate much of anything anyway.
So with "we are leaving" agreed by all sides, the question simply remains "to go where". What can this government and this corpse PM negotiate in the timescale we have? And the answer to that is "not a lot". A no deal hard Brexit is dead, so we have to have a softer deal but don't have the time to negotiate one.
A few hard realities exist. No deal means no customs deal. Which means our ports clog up immediately with trucks unable to enter or exit. Which means we find empty supermarket shelves inside a week and riots follow. No deal means the likes of Airbus and BMW and Nissan switching production elsewhere.
As a bare minimum we need the customs union, and retaining membership of that we may as well retain the single market. And thats a deal that we can do pretty simply and quickly. Rejoin EFTA. The bilateral deal between the EU and EFTA is already there. As a starting position it is lunacy not to jump at this to protect against the grotesque chaos of no deal. Problem again is ZombieMay who invested heavily in No Deal.
This is why she cannot continue. No authority in her own party. A coalition of chaos with terrorist sympathisers. No traction with Europe. A political instinct thats a proven liability. If the Tories can't set aside their desire to cling to power and appoint someone who can do the job, they should resign the government. In the national interest
Another one who fails to understand the difference between 'retaining The Customs Union' and being in a customs union. Being outside the Customs Union does not mean that our ports will clog up. Norway does perfectly well outside the Customs Union but inside the Single Market. People really should learn the basics before they start putting forward ideas.
The British people are inherently fair and one thing they do not like is treacherous back-stabbers. I would say George Osborne is a "dead man walking" if he ever thinks he can get become Conservative Leader in the future.
I also expect Theresa May, as she is now the "under-dog" will start to get the sympathy vote in a few days because that is how we are.
Brexit is happening. The leader of the opposition and the shadow chancellor actively want it to happen. Most Labour MPs represent areas that returned strong Leave votes. There is no way on earth that Labour is going to change its position. The key thing now is to get a Brexit that does the least possible damage to the UK economy, ensures all current security arrangements continue and protects as many of the rights that UK citizens currently have as possible - basically the Brexit that Corbyn outlined on Marr this morning. It seems to me that there is a deal to be done in the Commons around that. The key thing is to shut out the swivel-eyed rightists who see the Europeans as our enemies and would have us walk away without any deal at all.
Yes, there is no way Labour MPs for places like Sunderland will go against their constituents wishes on such a fundamental point.
I wonder how many students voted for Corbyn in the mistaken belief that he would stop Brexit.
More that his manifesto gave a bit of hope I suspect. It's Osborne and Cameron that have done this long term to the Tories, every single one of @Another_Richard comment is spot on re Housing, tuition fees, and generally treating the youth as a non voting bloc to be utterly shat upon.
Yes, PBers are making the same mistake they did pre-election - underestimating young people. The reality is most young people know that Corbyn will not 'stop Brexit' but see Labour as the chance to secure a soft Brexit.
Which is odd because Corbyn and Labour in general committed to leaving the single market, we completely failed to make that point and force Corbyn to say that a Labour government would take Britain out of the single market, exactly like Theresa May's Tories.
It's what the parties want to replace it that is the big difference, as well as the level of ongoing cooperation with the EU27.
Well I have to say the difference between the two parties' positions on Brexit are extremely similar. Leave the single market, end free movement, free trade access for export and imports. In fact I think Labour's flavour of Brexit would have to take us further away from the EU as we wouldn't be able to stay in loads of regulatory mechanisms due to nationalisation of private companies.
Here is the Brexit solution that satisfies everyone and no-one:
We go for an accelerated move to EFTA/EEA (which, as it means continued payments, means we can largely shelve the money issue with the EU).
We can largely take off the shelf treaties for this, and we could get in done by mid to end 2018.
We stay in the customs union for two years post EFTA/EEA, and we agree (and pass legislation now for) a referendum by AV for 2023/4 on: Rejoin EU, Stick with EFTA/EEA, Go for "Complete Independence".
If we go for Complete Independence in 2023, at least we will have replaced the EU treaties with (for example) Mexico, with ones of our own so it won't be such a heart attack to the British economy. If we stick with EFTA/EEA, great. If we decide to go back to the EU (which would, I suspect, involve joining Schengen and the Euro), then that is also the people's will.
It's a horrible fudge, but it probably works.
It doesn't work, because the EU has no interest in indulging such an endeavour. We'll need to make a forced choice sooner rather than later: out out or in in.
In light of devolved nature of the Scottish Conservatives, do we know whether the Scottish Conservative MP's will elect their own parliamentary leader as the SNP have previously?
LOL, they will never be allowed to think for themselves, sockpuppets till the end. They follow orders.
Will it be a People's Brexit or a Banker's Brexit?
It will be a Brexit that will work for no-one. Neither bankers nor the people. Unfortunately it has to go ahead unless there is an explicit vote to the contrary and the EU agree to take us back. Democracy gives people power to make their own dumb decisions.
I am not sure I agree. I think there is a deal to be done. If we stop seeing the Europeans as our enemies and instead approach them as our friends, there is no reason to believe that national leaders like Merkel and Macron would not back an agreement that ensured a close, amicable and fully functional relationship between the UK and the EU27.
You're right. There's definitely a deal to be done. Better than nothing but not as good as before is a big negotiating space. That's the space in which a deal will be found. Crap but acceptable is a realistic, and in the circumstances a worthwhile, goal.
Obviously, there will be a trade-off. From a straight business perspective, leaving the EU will be worse than staying in it. But there is more to Brexit than that. The referendum campaign and what's happened since have made that clear. Once we leave behind the Tory right's notion that the EU27 are our enemies and the negotiating process must be a confrontation there is scope to find agreement across a wide range of areas. Merkel and Macron - the people who really count here - are pragmatists and want what is best for their countries. The UK has plenty to offer when genuine amicability underpins our departure.
Interesting. My cousin is one of his constituents and an occasional helper. I believe he's known locally as 'thicko'. Not that that should be a bar to preferment in the Tory Party.
The Brexit clock is ticking. But we find ourselves in the odd position where the government have no authority to negotiate the deal they were after and the EU aren't in a position to give anything that resembles it. And there isn't the time to negotiate much of anything anyway.
So with "we are leaving" agreed by all sides, the question simply remains "to go where". What can this government and this corpse PM negotiate in the timescale we have? And the answer to that is "not a lot". A no deal hard Brexit is dead, so we have to have a softer deal but don't have the time to negotiate one.
A few hard realities exist. No deal means no customs deal. Which means our ports clog up immediately with trucks unable to enter or exit. Which means we find empty supermarket shelves inside a week and riots follow. No deal means the likes of Airbus and BMW and Nissan switching production elsewhere.
As a bare minimum we need the customs union, and retaining membership of that we may as well retain the single market. And thats a deal that we can do pretty simply and quickly. Rejoin EFTA. The bilateral deal between the EU and EFTA is already there. As a starting position it is lunacy not to jump at this to protect against the grotesque chaos of no deal. Problem again is ZombieMay who invested heavily in No Deal.
This is why she cannot continue. No authority in her own party. A coalition of chaos with terrorist sympathisers. No traction with Europe. A political instinct thats a proven liability. If the Tories can't set aside their desire to cling to power and appoint someone who can do the job, they should resign the government. In the national interest
I agree with this. I don't even think the EEA will work for us. It's not certain the EU will offer it to us either - we would have to do a compelling sales job on them, which is another reason to replace May. But EEA is our best option given the mess we are in. The other point is that only a Conservative government can implement Brexit on current numbers in parliament, but they can only do so with the tacit support of Labour.
Here is the Brexit solution that satisfies everyone and no-one:
We go for an accelerated move to EFTA/EEA (which, as it means continued payments, means we can largely shelve the money issue with the EU).
We can largely take off the shelf treaties for this, and we could get in done by mid to end 2018.
We stay in the customs union for two years post EFTA/EEA, and we agree (and pass legislation now for) a referendum by AV for 2023/4 on: Rejoin EU, Stick with EFTA/EEA, Go for "Complete Independence".
If we go for Complete Independence in 2023, at least we will have replaced the EU treaties with (for example) Mexico, with ones of our own so it won't be such a heart attack to the British economy. If we stick with EFTA/EEA, great. If we decide to go back to the EU (which would, I suspect, involve joining Schengen and the Euro), then that is also the people's will.
It's a horrible fudge, but it probably works.
It doesn't work, because the EU has no interest in indulging such an endeavour. We'll need to make a forced choice sooner rather than later: out out or in in.
Of course they do: we hand money to them, and we give them the most precious thing of all - a hope that we'll come snivelling back in five or six years time.
Comments
Reading East would have been a decent odds Labour winner
As an aside, amused to discover that my stake on one bet is limited by Ladbrokes to £2,000. Ahem. Don't think that'll be a problem...
Sometimes taking the hard choice going down fighting for the right things than clinging on to power compromising too far.
BREXIT will happen but not the hard BREXIT that May wanted.
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/873834015228391427
That is all.
Edit. Just seen the tweet from Forsyth below also makes the point.
Clearly May can't go on, but another election is an appalling prospect. Therefore the Tory party needs to give itself a break and bring down the heightened atmosphere. Therefore they decide to bow to seniority and ask the Father of the House (one K Clarke) to lead a government (he may not necessarily need to lead the Tory Party).
In light of the difficult times we face he invites Corbyn to be joint DP alongside Ruth Davidson newly elevated to the Lords. Keir Starmer gets Brexit. Yvette Cooper, Home Office. Tory Chancellor and Foreign Secretary.
If it holds we spray some of Corbyn's jam (probably Uni fees in a modified form). We negotiate a 'soft' Brexit (whatever that means.) If it holds then we have an election post-Brexit (Davidson having resigned her seat in the Lords and entered the Commons at a by-election (possibly in Rushcliffe!).
More likely Corbyn goes off in a huff at some point having failed to cope with the realities of power, but the Labour moderates don't go with him. A win-win!
Complex negotiations back and forth on a hard brexit leaving the single market does not carry support in parliament. With no majority the only form of hard brexit on offer is car crash WTO brexit, not some bespoke deal. Bespoke options are gone.
A car crash WTO Brexit can only be survived politically if the government makes it look like they have chosen it from a position of strength, and have a large enough majority to withstand the inevitable backlash in the following election. Despite the best efforts of the tabloids, people WILL revolt against whichever party lets us crash out of the EU. So without a landslide as a buffer for that, the governing party will be obligated to surrender to the EU's demands at the 11th hour and try their best to present it as a victory, even if that means keeping FoM. It at least gives them something to sell, rather than turning their pockets out and hoping that 'plucky british spirit' rallies round them in an FU to the EU - that didn't exactly happen this time around.
In short - bespoke hard brexit dead, no majority to force it through. car crash brexit dead because a minority government will rather 'cash out' for a soft brexit than go 'double or nothing' empty handed to the electorate. EEA soft brexit (as a transition perhaps) is the only way forward that respects the result of the referendum.
It might take a while to pay out is the only issue with next Lab leader laying now
On your main point we could, and realistically would need to, make our own deals while having a common customs area with the EU - as Turkey already does. It's not ideal. All this is second best to being a full member of the EU. But as we have democratically rejected the best option we have to choose the least bad alternatives. Being in a customs union with the EU is better than not being in one.
As was the Tory Party's failure to shown the vision of what a Corbyn lead Britain would really look like. Mould grows on that jam pretty fast.
A right wing, motivated by Europe, poisoned the well and pushed the Tories away from the centre into ideological almost theocratic positions.
They need to put the Eurosceptics in their box, ditch hard Brexits and remember they win when they focus on a more pragmatic, genuinely businesses friendly policies.
[momentum solution]
Betting PostF1: a surprisingly large number of tips. Three for the race (counting two half-stake tips as one, and including the No Safety Car bet):
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/06/canada-pre-race-2017.html
Let's hope Raikkonen can get the fastest lap, backed at 8.5 (hedged at evens).
He's got 1/3 at Canada in the last 3 years, and 2/5 at races he's finished in 2017.
Tariff free trade with the Single Market.
Some restrictions on freedom of movement for the low skilled but recognition our skill shortages make ongoing immigration important.
The right to make our own laws, ie no longer subject to the CJE.
Close co-operation with the EU on a range of matters including security.
What we can get on access for services etc. (mutual recognition of regulation in financial services etc)
Control of our own waters and fishing rights.
Neither of the main parties ruled out making some ongoing contribution to the EU to obtain these benefits, albeit both parties expect this to be modest and much, much less than our current net contribution.
One of the reasons Brexit got so little traction was that it was difficult to find a disagreement, except with the Lib Dems and who was listening to them? Should Labour be invited to put someone on the Brexit negotiating team? Why not?
In hindsight, it pays not to be rude to people who you might have to grovel to in a few weeks time.
The DUP are such extreme fruitcakes that anything they propose would never pass. So they will propose nothing new. However they will not support any socially progressive legislation but sufficient numbers of Labour or Liberals will.
What the DUP will do is vote as directed by Mrs May in return for investment in their pork barrels.
Cash for votes. Yay! Another scandal in the making
I also expect Theresa May, as she is now the "under-dog" will start to get the sympathy vote in a few days because that is how we are.
Seat 325 for Labour is Stevenage.
Put the country first before the party.
We go for an accelerated move to EFTA/EEA (which, as it means continued payments, means we can largely shelve the money issue with the EU).
We can largely take off the shelf treaties for this, and we could get in done by mid to end 2018.
We stay in the customs union for two years post EFTA/EEA, and we agree (and pass legislation now for) a referendum by AV for 2023/4 on: Rejoin EU, Stick with EFTA/EEA, Go for "Complete Independence".
If we go for Complete Independence in 2023, at least we will have replaced the EU treaties with (for example) Mexico, with ones of our own so it won't be such a heart attack to the British economy. If we stick with EFTA/EEA, great. If we decide to go back to the EU (which would, I suspect, involve joining Schengen and the Euro), then that is also the people's will.
It's a horrible fudge, but it probably works.
In my view, Cameron should not have resigned and should not have allowed the meme to evolve that this was a great decisive victory.
He should have got on the first Eurostar to Brussels and asked for help on free movement with the clear implication that if not he would issue A50 on his return. I suspect there may have been grounds for a deal.
I can't recall seeing someone so angry on live TV.
Turn it the other way, the DUP do not want to be tied to the Conservatives.
What the DUP manifesto both reveals and hides is that the party has turned more right on economics over the recent years but traditionally the DUP was probably left of centre-ish on economic issues. A large amount of their gains and vital holds on Thursday were down to working class turning out this time. A working class that has long had a bit of on-off relationship with the DUP.
As it is, I get the point of the potential damage for the Conservatives and given my voting preference is Conservative (they don't often stand in West Belfast, I have no idea why...) this is not an ideal situation.
I was aware of some of the DUP list on Friday and it does have some things that are red meat for DUP unionists (certainly not every unionist) here but has precisely no impact on anything east of the County Down coast. On national level issues the DUP probably isn't far off in its shopping list to what many elsewhere in the UK would go for either.
One note of caution for Labour. I think they have peaked in vote terms, they are highly dependent on a different distribution of votes next time or the Conservative vote dropping if the Conservatives get a decent new leader. I'm not sure they can depend on either.
The problem for the Conservatives is who to replace May with. The obvious counter to Corbyn is Boris. The intellectuals may not not have him but the guy can win stuff. I'm no fan but acknowledge his capacity.
So with "we are leaving" agreed by all sides, the question simply remains "to go where". What can this government and this corpse PM negotiate in the timescale we have? And the answer to that is "not a lot". A no deal hard Brexit is dead, so we have to have a softer deal but don't have the time to negotiate one.
A few hard realities exist. No deal means no customs deal. Which means our ports clog up immediately with trucks unable to enter or exit. Which means we find empty supermarket shelves inside a week and riots follow. No deal means the likes of Airbus and BMW and Nissan switching production elsewhere.
As a bare minimum we need the customs union, and retaining membership of that we may as well retain the single market. And thats a deal that we can do pretty simply and quickly. Rejoin EFTA. The bilateral deal between the EU and EFTA is already there. As a starting position it is lunacy not to jump at this to protect against the grotesque chaos of no deal. Problem again is ZombieMay who invested heavily in No Deal.
This is why she cannot continue. No authority in her own party. A coalition of chaos with terrorist sympathisers. No traction with Europe. A political instinct thats a proven liability. If the Tories can't set aside their desire to cling to power and appoint someone who can do the job, they should resign the government. In the national interest
The irony is that for all their virtue signalling they are very much 'me, me, me' voters and once they became homeowners their views would probably change.
Make no mistake, it's housing and tuition that's driving out the young. Got chatting yesterday to a recent grad. 25 years old, intelligent, good job, over 30k in debt and in his own words, no chance of ever buying a house. Seven people in a four bedroom house share. Wouldn't you vote for jam?
Or will he just wait until October's election?
Wow at what she said to Osborne when she sacked him...
https://order-order.com/2017/06/11/labour-repeatedly-tried-to-do-deals-with-the-dup/
https://order-order.com/2017/06/11/mcdonnell-leave-single-market/