Skip to content

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks reflects on last night’s events

1111213141517»

Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,704
    Chameleon said:

    Hammond, Rudd, Johnson, Davis, Fallon all remain.

    So glad Rudd kept her seat.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,861

    Heidi Allen not mincing her words:

    [snip]

    Allen said she would like to see “an entirely new Conservative party”. Asked about the role of May’s key advisors, Fiona Hill and Nick Timothy, Allen blamed the prime minister directly:

    "Frankly, if the leader picks people who advise her so badly and cannot see that they’re being advised badly then that tells me, I’m afraid, that that’s not the leader we need."


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/jun/09/election-2017-theresa-may-speaks-outside-downing-street-after-shock-result-hunh-parliament-live

    17:09

    She has a point.
  • GeoffHGeoffH Posts: 56

    Heidi Allen not mincing her words:

    Allen said the UK should seek to “buy ourselves some time” before starting Brexit talks with the EU, and that this could decide how long May stayed as prime minister. But she said May should not stay longer than six months.

    "It depends on how those conversations go, but certainly I don’t see any more than six months."

    Allen said she would like to see “an entirely new Conservative party”. Asked about the role of May’s key advisors, Fiona Hill and Nick Timothy, Allen blamed the prime minister directly:

    "Frankly, if the leader picks people who advise her so badly and cannot see that they’re being advised badly then that tells me, I’m afraid, that that’s not the leader we need."


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/jun/09/election-2017-theresa-may-speaks-outside-downing-street-after-shock-result-hunh-parliament-live

    17:09

    A newcomer who shows more sense than the established so-called leaders
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @annemcelvoy: The definition of "in office, nut not in power" - not being able to reshuffle your team https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/873210331644002305

    https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/873213338251132928
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,583
    Scott_P said:

    Ok, bets on how long this farce can play out?

    1 term

    1 year

    1 month

    1 week

    It looks like it might last more than a week but I can't see it more than a month really. Of course I will be wrong but that is just my impression. She should be toast already.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:

    For any PBer that didn't manage to completely deplete their popcorn supplies overnight...

    @BBCandrewkerr: Lib Dem sources say they're seriously considering going to court to challenge @StephenGethins 2 vote SNP majority in North East Fife.

    Why?
    Because they've forgotten Winchester. That was a two vote margin, too, until it wasn't.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,214

    tlg86 said:

    This is remarkable (to me anyway) - look at the remainer revenge top 20 targets.

    They got 2,3,4,5,7 for starters - including Kensington at 2.


    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/20-mps-remain-campaigners-hit-10290367

    Any Tory Remainer voting Labour should thank their lucky stars that the Scottish Tories came good.
    After Toppings feedback, it's to be hoped this was a one-off protest vote by these London remainer areas thinking Corbyn was nowhere near power so they could safely do so.... no guarantee though and I suggest a Boris or DD as new Tory leader would make it less likely it will be.
    Not that I think another election is likely, but if there was another one, working out what would happen in these places would be a big piece of the jigsaw.

    I wonder how many people woke up this morning and thought "bloody hell"?
  • atia2atia2 Posts: 207


    We are currently a monarchy and our head of state is the embodiment of the people.

    Gobbledegook.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JoeMurphyLondon: Sounds like Theresa May has been taken prisoner by her Cabinet ministers. Five staying in jobs, including Hammond, Johnson, Fallon, Rudd &DD
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Scott_P said:

    Ok, bets on how long this farce can play out?

    1 term

    1 year

    1 month

    1 week

    It looks like it might last more than a week but I can't see it more than a month really. Of course I will be wrong but that is just my impression. She should be toast already.
    The fact that she is not already toast makes me think this could go on for a long time. Like, whole Brexit negotiation long.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,583
    atia2 said:

    If SF want to take their seats but refuse to swear an oath to the Queen they should be allowed to do so. The idea that you have to lick the arse of the monarchy to exercise your democratic right is bonkers. I wouldn't want to do it.

    It is the law of the land and we should abide by it. It is shameful that you should suggest otherwise.
    An absurd answer often given when reasons dry up. Obviously the point Bobabjob is making is that it shouldn't be the law. Replying that it is is like a child replying "Because."
    I haven't. I have explained why it is the law. Of course you may be too dumb to understand it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 34,222
    In the light of this election has anyone looked yet at how the forthcoming boundary changes will affect the next election assuming it doesn't happen this year?

    Yesterday's seat distribution I think was a reasonable reflection of the popular vote,
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,583
    atia2 said:


    We are currently a monarchy and our head of state is the embodiment of the people.

    Gobbledegook.

    Like I said, too dumb to understand it.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Alistair said:


    The fact that she is not already toast makes me think this could go on for a long time. Like, whole Brexit negotiation long.

    The only reason for that would be so the men in Grey suits can use her as a lightning rod for when it goes bad, and she might give up long before that point
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123
    Chukka offering himself to the shadow cabinet........

  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,927
    edited June 2017
    So she's got a Cabinet. Think she'll be in for the duration of the Brexit negotiations now. Then ousted or stepping down in 2020/21 after the negotiations are complete and in the lead-up to the next GE.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,267
    Apparently the BBC can''t get hold of senior Tories. Something is afoot...
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Hammond needs binning for his Mr Invisible act (although no doubt Theresa respects this show as it's how she became PM) and Fallon needs to go because he has made gaffe after gaffe.

    But most of all, Theresa needs to set out a plan very soon on how and when she is going to go.

    Oh and let's not forget the two advisers - they shouldn't darken Downing Street again.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    In the light of this election has anyone looked yet at how the forthcoming boundary changes will affect the next election assuming it doesn't happen this year?

    Yesterday's seat distribution I think was a reasonable reflection of the popular vote,

    Next to no chance of boundary changes being passed by this Parliament.
  • DearPBDearPB Posts: 439
    Scott_P said:

    Alistair said:


    The fact that she is not already toast makes me think this could go on for a long time. Like, whole Brexit negotiation long.

    The only reason for that would be so the men in Grey suits can use her as a lightning rod for when it goes bad, and she might give up long before that point
    Not sure who those grey clad men are these days...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,704
    Danny565 said:

    In the light of this election has anyone looked yet at how the forthcoming boundary changes will affect the next election assuming it doesn't happen this year?

    Yesterday's seat distribution I think was a reasonable reflection of the popular vote,

    Next to no chance of boundary changes being passed by this Parliament.
    Yeah, the only chance would be if it is changed to be 650-seats. Even then it wouldn't be guaranteed.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,267

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:

    For any PBer that didn't manage to completely deplete their popcorn supplies overnight...

    @BBCandrewkerr: Lib Dem sources say they're seriously considering going to court to challenge @StephenGethins 2 vote SNP majority in North East Fife.

    Why?
    Because they've forgotten Winchester. That was a two vote margin, too, until it wasn't.
    And there is a substantial Con vote to squeeze, the LDs will comfortably take it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,297
    maaarsh said:

    May obviously has to go, but priority 1, 2 and 3 for every Conservative mp should be protecting people from a scenario where the nutters across the street get control, so they need to tread very carefully while doing this.

    Yes.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,274
    I'm convinced Hammond was sidelined over that NI fuckup before the campaign started, the one with that video of Cameron seemingly criticizing them for breaking manifesto commitments.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,861

    GIN1138 said:

    jonny83 said:

    I get why they won't commit regicide right now, if there wasn't Brexit negotiations in 10 days time it would have happened. Have to put the country first right now.

    Because a Tory leadership contest takes 2-3 months.

    Well it doesn't have to take that long?
    If it is a coronation, no. But the membership really, REALLY need to vote for the next Leader/Prime Minister.
    In practice, doesn't that mean May needs to complete the Brexit negotiations first, or that there needs to be agreement to postpone them? Can't have several months of campaign, and a change of national leadership direction, during the middle of them, surely?
    Well, as I said earlier, the EU will not negotiate at all until they know they are going to be doing so with someone who (presumably) won't be tied to "No deal is better than a bad deal".

    And promptly offer us a bad deal.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Not that I care, far from it, but does nobody In the PCP have a conception of the annihilation they are marching themselves to? They are looking at 1997 on steroids, possibly by October.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,927
    Email from the US office:

    "sadly you are starting to look like Italy"

    !
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Does anybody have a completed copy of results spreadsheet prepared by AndyJS or from elsewhere ( I know this till be one result short) I would love to start to play with it and see if I can find any as yet unnoticed trends in it.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123
    Scott_P said:

    @JoeMurphyLondon: Sounds like Theresa May has been taken prisoner by her Cabinet ministers. Five staying in jobs, including Hammond, Johnson, Fallon, Rudd &DD

    I have about as much authority training my dog than May does with her team....she is diminished and is one minor slip up from oblivion....and I mean one minor thing....a bad single PMQ's could finish her off.....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,074
    GeoffH said:

    Heidi Allen not mincing her words:

    Allen said the UK should seek to “buy ourselves some time” before starting Brexit talks with the EU, and that this could decide how long May stayed as prime minister. But she said May should not stay longer than six months.

    "It depends on how those conversations go, but certainly I don’t see any more than six months."

    Allen said she would like to see “an entirely new Conservative party”. Asked about the role of May’s key advisors, Fiona Hill and Nick Timothy, Allen blamed the prime minister directly:

    "Frankly, if the leader picks people who advise her so badly and cannot see that they’re being advised badly then that tells me, I’m afraid, that that’s not the leader we need."


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/jun/09/election-2017-theresa-may-speaks-outside-downing-street-after-shock-result-hunh-parliament-live

    17:09

    A newcomer who shows more sense than the established so-called leaders
    And people are complaining about the Standard's 'Denial' headline...
    Seems generous to me; delusional would be closer to the mark.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,795
    Breaking. No reshuffle, of the top/Brexit jobs anyhow.
  • Email from the US office:

    "sadly you are starting to look like Italy"

    !

    And that's from a country with a blustering sex pest as President, so they know what they are talking about when they make Italy comparisons.
  • TypoTypo Posts: 195
    If Heidi Allen is being that outspoken (and she is absolutely spot on by the way) then May will surely be gone sooner rather than later. Why doesn't she challenge for the leadership? She evidently has a lot of common sense.

    Incidentally, on a personal note I feel for TM. She is a human being who right now looks very fragile to me.

    Who would have thought the Tories polling nigh on 14 MILLION votes would be such a disappointment.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123
    Jeez...the DUP look en masse like a group on a day pass out from the Unit.....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,297
    atia2 said:

    If SF want to take their seats but refuse to swear an oath to the Queen they should be allowed to do so. The idea that you have to lick the arse of the monarchy to exercise your democratic right is bonkers. I wouldn't want to do it.

    It is the law of the land and we should abide by it. It is shameful that you should suggest otherwise.
    An absurd answer often given when reasons dry up. Obviously the point Bobabjob is making is that it shouldn't be the law. Replying that it is is like a child replying "Because."
    Isn't it the parents who answer only "because"?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,102
    Scott_P said:

    @JoeMurphyLondon: Sounds like Theresa May has been taken prisoner by her Cabinet ministers. Five staying in jobs, including Hammond, Johnson, Fallon, Rudd &DD

    Or has she had to beg them to stay?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,861
    tyson said:

    Chukka offering himself to the shadow cabinet........

    Oh, NOW he wants to be in the Shadow Cabinet.

    Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet.....

  • GeoffHGeoffH Posts: 56
    Come back Ramsey MacDonald. We need you now.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    tyson said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JoeMurphyLondon: Sounds like Theresa May has been taken prisoner by her Cabinet ministers. Five staying in jobs, including Hammond, Johnson, Fallon, Rudd &DD

    I have about as much authority training my dog than May does with her team....she is diminished and is one minor slip up from oblivion....and I mean one minor thing....a bad single PMQ's could finish her off.....
    PM Corbyn delivers soft Brexit, investment, an end of austerity and national purpose. Who'dda thunk It?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    Email from the US office:

    "sadly you are starting to look like Italy"

    !

    A bit rich, coming from a country which elected Trump as president and is now emboiled in a congressional inquiry into whether he leant on the FBI.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123
    Chameleon said:

    Apparently the BBC can''t get hold of senior Tories. Something is afoot...

    I think TM may well end up getting the Thatcher treatment from her colleagues when they politely tell her to piss off.....
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    tyson said:

    Jeez...the DUP look en masse like a group on a day pass out from the Unit.....

    Ten white male middle class bigots and their bigot matron offering stability. Colour me skeptical
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,074

    Email from the US office:

    "sadly you are starting to look like Italy"

    !

    A bit rich, coming from a country which elected Trump as president and is now emboiled in a congressional inquiry into whether he leant on the FBI.
    Getting into an argument over which of us is the least crap seems singularly pointless.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,914
    tyson said:

    Chameleon said:

    Apparently the BBC can''t get hold of senior Tories. Something is afoot...

    I think TM may well end up getting the Thatcher treatment from her colleagues when they politely tell her to piss off.....
    What in God's name? Ken Clarke is 6 on BF for next leader.

    I went back to bed this afternoon - has something happened?
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Scott_P said:

    Ok, bets on how long this farce can play out?

    1 term

    1 year

    1 month

    1 week

    It looks like it might last more than a week but I can't see it more than a month really. Of course I will be wrong but that is just my impression. She should be toast already.
    Let's say she triggers a leadership contest and there are only two candidates - how long would the voting period be?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,861
    TSE will be pleased to see the UDA boys like their 80's musical references too....
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,135
    atia2 said:

    A 'bloody difficult woman' would actually have been fine for different circumstances

    Being "bloody difficult" is fine in no circumstances. I avoid doing business with "bloody difficult" people. It's absurd that this was made a selling point. Are we children?
    Had this argument a week or so ago. I agree completely. Being bloody difficult is not a good negotiating position.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,074
    Typo said:

    If Heidi Allen is being that outspoken (and she is absolutely spot on by the way) then May will surely be gone sooner rather than later. Why doesn't she challenge for the leadership? She evidently has a lot of common sense.

    Incidentally, on a personal note I feel for TM. She is a human being who right now looks very fragile to me....

    That is right and reasonable - but while she clings on to power to the detriment of the country, it can't be a reason to enable her.
    May has the weekend to see sense; otherwise things seem very likely to get ugly.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,927

    Scott_P said:

    Ok, bets on how long this farce can play out?

    1 term

    1 year

    1 month

    1 week

    It looks like it might last more than a week but I can't see it more than a month really. Of course I will be wrong but that is just my impression. She should be toast already.
    Let's say she triggers a leadership contest and there are only two candidates - how long would the voting period be?
    It's an age isn't it? Three months or something. I remember DC v Davis in 2005 was pretty much May to December.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,074
    kjh said:

    atia2 said:

    A 'bloody difficult woman' would actually have been fine for different circumstances

    Being "bloody difficult" is fine in no circumstances. I avoid doing business with "bloody difficult" people. It's absurd that this was made a selling point. Are we children?
    Had this argument a week or so ago. I agree completely. Being bloody difficult is not a good negotiating position.
    The ability to be bloody difficult is very useful indeed; as a defining characteristic it isn't.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,914
    Typo said:

    If Heidi Allen is being that outspoken (and she is absolutely spot on by the way) then May will surely be gone sooner rather than later. Why doesn't she challenge for the leadership? She evidently has a lot of common sense.

    Incidentally, on a personal note I feel for TM. She is a human being who right now looks very fragile to me.

    Who would have thought the Tories polling nigh on 14 MILLION votes would be such a disappointment.

    Who is the stalking horse? Surely one will appear this summer?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,888
    Mr. Tyson, nonsense. I'm sure the large consignment of knives being delivered to the 1922 Committee is simply to ensure their vegetables are nicely diced.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422

    Heidi Allen not mincing her words:

    Allen said the UK should seek to “buy ourselves some time” before starting Brexit talks with the EU, and that this could decide how long May stayed as prime minister. But she said May should not stay longer than six months.

    "It depends on how those conversations go, but certainly I don’t see any more than six months."

    Allen said she would like to see “an entirely new Conservative party”. Asked about the role of May’s key advisors, Fiona Hill and Nick Timothy, Allen blamed the prime minister directly:

    "Frankly, if the leader picks people who advise her so badly and cannot see that they’re being advised badly then that tells me, I’m afraid, that that’s not the leader we need."


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/jun/09/election-2017-theresa-may-speaks-outside-downing-street-after-shock-result-hunh-parliament-live

    17:09

    Fair comment
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,074
    One thing the Tories might consider is the size of the apparent lead they had, and the remarkable speed with which May blew it. Their current position is NOT a floor.

    They don't have a great deal of time to sort this out if they don't want to see Corbyn in No 10 after the next election - whenever that might be.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422

    tyson said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JoeMurphyLondon: Sounds like Theresa May has been taken prisoner by her Cabinet ministers. Five staying in jobs, including Hammond, Johnson, Fallon, Rudd &DD

    I have about as much authority training my dog than May does with her team....she is diminished and is one minor slip up from oblivion....and I mean one minor thing....a bad single PMQ's could finish her off.....
    PM Corbyn delivers soft Brexit, investment, an end of austerity and national purpose. Who'dda thunk It?

    no one?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    May became Prime Minister without a personal electoral mandate. She went to the country in part to get that mandate, but fell short of expectations (but still significant increase in votes and comfortably most seats such as only Conservatives can form a viable Government).

    Because the electorate didn't grant her a strong enough mandate, the proposal is that the Conservative party say "you didn't like her, ok we'll give you somebody else"(but you won't have a chance to give your opinion on them). That won't wash - they would have to be bloody certain that that person could win a General Election in 4 months. Because that's where it would be going.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2017
    Nigelb said:

    That is right and reasonable - but while she clings on to power to the detriment of the country, it can't be a reason to enable her.
    May has the weekend to see sense; otherwise things seem very likely to get ugly.

    I don't see it as her clinging to power, more a question at the top of no-one near the top of the party knowing quite what to do next. Obviously they will be busy on the phones and holding secret meetings in smoke-free rooms. Either they'll come up with a consensus, or someone (Boris?) will break ranks and go public in a bid to seize the initiative.

    Fasten your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy ride.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    atia2 said:

    If SF want to take their seats but refuse to swear an oath to the Queen they should be allowed to do so. The idea that you have to lick the arse of the monarchy to exercise your democratic right is bonkers. I wouldn't want to do it.

    It is the law of the land and we should abide by it. It is shameful that you should suggest otherwise.
    An absurd answer often given when reasons dry up. Obviously the point Bobabjob is making is that it shouldn't be the law. Replying that it is is like a child replying "Because."
    Has it occurred to you that sitting in Westminster might actually be something that SF don't *wan't* to do? They think the only Irish parliament should be in Dublin*

    *I assume a United Ireland's capital is Dublin.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Nigelb said:

    One thing the Tories might consider is the size of the apparent lead they had, and the remarkable speed with which May blew it. Their current position is NOT a floor.

    They don't have a great deal of time to sort this out if they don't want to see Corbyn in No 10 after the next election - whenever that might be.

    If they think the surge has stopped they are mad. And the blue kippers are going to be sodding off en masse. They'll be polling low 30s next week
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,795
    The DUP show every sign of being wiling and able to play hard ball.

    Every village in the province is going to be getting its own bypass, or similar
  • TypoTypo Posts: 195

    Typo said:

    If Heidi Allen is being that outspoken (and she is absolutely spot on by the way) then May will surely be gone sooner rather than later. Why doesn't she challenge for the leadership? She evidently has a lot of common sense.

    Incidentally, on a personal note I feel for TM. She is a human being who right now looks very fragile to me.

    Who would have thought the Tories polling nigh on 14 MILLION votes would be such a disappointment.

    Who is the stalking horse? Surely one will appear this summer?
    Why not Allen? She doesn't mince her words.

    I am totally up for a 2010 or even 2015 intake candidate taking over. Renewal renewal renewal. Forget the current cabinet.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    In the light of this election has anyone looked yet at how the forthcoming boundary changes will affect the next election assuming it doesn't happen this year?

    Yesterday's seat distribution I think was a reasonable reflection of the popular vote,

    Yesterday's seat distribution showed how Labour benefits from current boundaries.

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2017
    alex. said:

    May became Prime Minister without a personal electoral mandate. She went to the country in part to get that mandate, but fell short of expectations (but still significant increase in votes and comfortably most seats such as only Conservatives can form a viable Government).

    Because the electorate didn't grant her a strong enough mandate, the proposal is that the Conservative party say "you didn't like her, ok we'll give you somebody else"(but you won't have a chance to give your opinion on them). That won't wash - they would have to be bloody certain that that person could win a General Election in 4 months. Because that's where it would be going.

    Exactly. The idea of going through a General Election with various leaders put front and centre, then suddenly some other guy or girl who wasn't even on the table suddenly comes in straight after the election, is going to seem utterly baffling to the public.

    The Tories will either have to make do with May for most of the parliament, or if they really do want to change leaders then get ready for another election imminently.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,914
    IanB2 said:

    The DUP show every sign of being wiling and able to play hard ball.

    Every village in the province is going to be getting its own bypass, or similar

    Give them gold-plated farm gates if that what is needed to keep Corbyn out of No. 10.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,861
    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    atia2 said:

    A 'bloody difficult woman' would actually have been fine for different circumstances

    Being "bloody difficult" is fine in no circumstances. I avoid doing business with "bloody difficult" people. It's absurd that this was made a selling point. Are we children?
    Had this argument a week or so ago. I agree completely. Being bloody difficult is not a good negotiating position.
    The ability to be bloody difficult is very useful indeed; as a defining characteristic it isn't.
    As a commercial negotiator for 25 years, being bloody difficult is a very handy thing to have in your locker, but only when deployed very sparingly - and your normal default position is to try to work towards getting a deal done.

    Also having a REALLY LOUD SCREAMING FIT is in the same category. (I once frightened one of my own colleagues when it was deployed, so rarely did it need to make an appearance.....but I had been dragged to Perth, WA to have a guy tell me he was going to do exactly what he had been told not to do by the Joint Venture.

    Oh, and it worked.....)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,914

    Nigelb said:

    One thing the Tories might consider is the size of the apparent lead they had, and the remarkable speed with which May blew it. Their current position is NOT a floor.

    They don't have a great deal of time to sort this out if they don't want to see Corbyn in No 10 after the next election - whenever that might be.

    If they think the surge has stopped they are mad. And the blue kippers are going to be sodding off en masse. They'll be polling low 30s next week
    Where will kippers go? UKIP may not even exist as a party by end of the month.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,947
    IanB2 said:

    Breaking. No reshuffle, of the top/Brexit jobs anyhow.

    I can't believe Theresa May herself would want to be in a position where she's so weak she can't even reshuffle the Cabinet.

    Philip must have a word and tell her it's over....
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    I'm quite uncomfortable with the way a lot of people on my social media (London) talk about the DUP. Most of these people have never been to Northern Ireland, knew nothing of Northern Irish politics until today and yet are acting like the Conservatives are going into coalition with a third world junta rather than the most popular democratically elected party in a part of the United Kingdom. Presumably they see the Northern Irish as slightly less human than themselves.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,795

    Email from the US office:

    "sadly you are starting to look like Italy"

    !

    Yes, but without the sex.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Nigelb said:

    One thing the Tories might consider is the size of the apparent lead they had, and the remarkable speed with which May blew it. Their current position is NOT a floor.

    They don't have a great deal of time to sort this out if they don't want to see Corbyn in No 10 after the next election - whenever that might be.

    "Apparent" is the key word, however.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,914
    alex. said:

    May became Prime Minister without a personal electoral mandate. She went to the country in part to get that mandate, but fell short of expectations (but still significant increase in votes and comfortably most seats such as only Conservatives can form a viable Government).

    Because the electorate didn't grant her a strong enough mandate, the proposal is that the Conservative party say "you didn't like her, ok we'll give you somebody else"(but you won't have a chance to give your opinion on them). That won't wash - they would have to be bloody certain that that person could win a General Election in 4 months. Because that's where it would be going.

    Well, we know May wont win an election in 4 months.

    So, what have they got to lose?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,927
    edited June 2017
    Brom said:

    I'm quite uncomfortable with the way a lot of people on my social media (London) talk about the DUP. Most of these people have never been to Northern Ireland, knew nothing of Northern Irish politics until today and yet are acting like the Conservatives are going into coalition with a third world junta rather than the most popular democratically elected party in a part of the United Kingdom. Presumably they see the Northern Irish as slightly less human than themselves.

    Because social media is 99% value-signalers who are obsessed with the gays? Sod stable government etc, as long as every single person in politics has the exact same belief system as them.....

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Danny565 said:

    alex. said:

    May became Prime Minister without a personal electoral mandate. She went to the country in part to get that mandate, but fell short of expectations (but still significant increase in votes and comfortably most seats such as only Conservatives can form a viable Government).

    Because the electorate didn't grant her a strong enough mandate, the proposal is that the Conservative party say "you didn't like her, ok we'll give you somebody else"(but you won't have a chance to give your opinion on them). That won't wash - they would have to be bloody certain that that person could win a General Election in 4 months. Because that's where it would be going.

    Exactly. The idea of going through a General Election with various leaders put front and centre, then suddenly some other guy or girl who wasn't even on the table suddenly comes in straight after the election, is going to seem utterly baffling to the public.

    The Tories will either have to make do with May for most of the parliament, or if they really do want to change leaders then get ready for another election.
    I agree, new leader, new mandate.

    An autumn election is quite possible, a government like this is very vulnerable to a confidence vote.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,914
    One thing is for sure: at next GE the PM/leader will turn up to the debates.

    As I posted earlier I hear that was the day the tide turned against her in at least one typical West Midlands workplace.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422

    Nigelb said:

    That is right and reasonable - but while she clings on to power to the detriment of the country, it can't be a reason to enable her.
    May has the weekend to see sense; otherwise things seem very likely to get ugly.

    I don't see it as her clinging to power, more a question at the top of no-one near the top of the party knowing quite what to do next. Obviously they will be busy on the phones and holding secret meetings in smoke-free rooms. Either they'll come up with a consensus, or someone (Boris?) will break ranks and go public in a bid to seize the initiative.

    Fasten your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy ride.
    Agree. Who is the 'Stop Boris'?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,914
    NEW THREAD
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,947
    Typo said:

    I wonder what would have happened under PM Leadsom?

    She probably wouldn't have been able to believe her luck and hung on until 2020.

    It's interesting to ponder isn't it?

    She's had kept Osborne in thew Cabinet for starters...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,861
    Typo said:

    Typo said:

    If Heidi Allen is being that outspoken (and she is absolutely spot on by the way) then May will surely be gone sooner rather than later. Why doesn't she challenge for the leadership? She evidently has a lot of common sense.

    Incidentally, on a personal note I feel for TM. She is a human being who right now looks very fragile to me.

    Who would have thought the Tories polling nigh on 14 MILLION votes would be such a disappointment.

    Who is the stalking horse? Surely one will appear this summer?
    Why not Allen? She doesn't mince her words.

    I am totally up for a 2010 or even 2015 intake candidate taking over. Renewal renewal renewal. Forget the current cabinet.
    Cometh the hour....step forward Rory Stewart and Johnny Mercer. Any others?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Brom said:

    I'm quite uncomfortable with the way a lot of people on my social media (London) talk about the DUP. Most of these people have never been to Northern Ireland, knew nothing of Northern Irish politics until today and yet are acting like the Conservatives are going into coalition with a third world junta rather than the most popular democratically elected party in a part of the United Kingdom. Presumably they see the Northern Irish as slightly less human than themselves.

    Because social media is 99% value-signalers who are obsessed with the gays? Sod stable government etc, as long as every single person in politics has the exact same belief system as them.....

    I think you'll find the Prime Minister threw away stable government with her grubby and calculating attempt to manipulate the electorate through an unnecessary trip to the polls.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,297
    Cons will have to do a volte-face on either public services spending or Brexit. If they get Boris, he can only do the former or his credibility will be shot (can't say well I was a Remainer before I became an arch Brexiter). He can then hunker down on Brexit with people realising that he is alive to the nuances of all sides of Brexit. Something that Tezza doesn't seem to be.

    Other than him? Hammond perhaps, Davis not on your nelly, Fallon lord spare us.

    Now, I happen to believe that the Cons needs a Remainer as leader. So that leaves Rudd (or an unknown as yet backbencher). But will the euroloons stand for it? Will for once in their political careers they realise that they didn't win, that there needs to be compromise with the country?

    Perhaps not, but one thing is for sure, as was noted above by @maaarsh, they need to be bloody careful or the bastards will destroy the Conservative Party and put Jezza into power at the next available opportunity.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,102
    ****BREAKING NEWS****

    Theresa May to see the Queen at 6.30 to ask permission to keep the old government rather than forming a new one.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Danny565 said:

    alex. said:

    May became Prime Minister without a personal electoral mandate. She went to the country in part to get that mandate, but fell short of expectations (but still significant increase in votes and comfortably most seats such as only Conservatives can form a viable Government).

    Because the electorate didn't grant her a strong enough mandate, the proposal is that the Conservative party say "you didn't like her, ok we'll give you somebody else"(but you won't have a chance to give your opinion on them). That won't wash - they would have to be bloody certain that that person could win a General Election in 4 months. Because that's where it would be going.

    Exactly. The idea of going through a General Election with various leaders put front and centre, then suddenly some other guy or girl who wasn't even on the table suddenly comes in straight after the election, is going to seem utterly baffling to the public.

    The Tories will either have to make do with May for most of the parliament, or if they really do want to change leaders then get ready for another election imminently.
    Which is what May should have done last year.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,586

    Danny565 said:

    alex. said:

    May became Prime Minister without a personal electoral mandate. She went to the country in part to get that mandate, but fell short of expectations (but still significant increase in votes and comfortably most seats such as only Conservatives can form a viable Government).

    Because the electorate didn't grant her a strong enough mandate, the proposal is that the Conservative party say "you didn't like her, ok we'll give you somebody else"(but you won't have a chance to give your opinion on them). That won't wash - they would have to be bloody certain that that person could win a General Election in 4 months. Because that's where it would be going.

    Exactly. The idea of going through a General Election with various leaders put front and centre, then suddenly some other guy or girl who wasn't even on the table suddenly comes in straight after the election, is going to seem utterly baffling to the public.

    The Tories will either have to make do with May for most of the parliament, or if they really do want to change leaders then get ready for another election.
    I agree, new leader, new mandate.

    An autumn election is quite possible, a government like this is very vulnerable to a confidence vote.
    Twenty pounds please
  • roserees64roserees64 Posts: 251
    Boris is disliked by large swathes of the electorate, only Labour voters would want him as PM.

    Theresa May will have to step down as she has made mistakes in the past few hours. She had to be asked to apologise to the Tory MPs who have lost their seats. This came later on this afternoon. She seems to lack the human touch.

    This was an election that she didn't need to hold, a vanity project based upon arrogance and bad advice.A disastrous campaign has produced a result where the Tory Party is beholden to a party who could be described as illiberal and regressive. Ruth Davidson has already criticised this alliance.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,751
    Jonathan said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tractional deal = cuddling up. You will be tainted either way.

    Quite possibly, although nothing could conceivably be worse than being tainted with a leader who invited convicted terrorists into the workplace of their fellow-terrorists' victims, within days of the murders and maimings, nor a Shadow Chancellor who openly celebrated the 'achievements of those murderers, and neither of these seems to have caused much electoral damage.
    Quit it with that ad hom stuff, it didn't work, it just makes you look silly.
    It may not have worked but those are still the facts even if you choose to ignore them or place no weight on them.

    One day those facts - and all the other facts about your leader and his associates - will come back and bite your leader and your party hard.

    No-one thought much about how every British government cosied up to the Saudis. Now it's something which is repelling a lot of people. Rightly, IMO.

    Don't be so complacent as to assume that your own leader's associations might not come to assume more importance in the public's minds as a result of events than they currently do.

    That is quite apart from any argument that such associations are bad per se as a matter of simple morality and judgment, even though I am fully aware that only a very few care about the issue on this ground.
    Your opinions about Corbyn are not just facts, they are highly charged and emotive. So utterly convinced were you, you were not alone in expressing them in terms that diminished and then destroyed the power of your argument.

    There is much to disagree with in Corbyn's past, but you don't have to resort to the language that is usually reserved by the tabloids for child killers. And there are other aspects to Corbyn that you ignore.

    There is much to disagree with in Corbyn's present - his chairmanship of STW, for instance - and the positions it has led him to adopt (for instance not supporting action to help the Yazidis who are the target of ISIS' genocide). But I place more importance on a person's moral character than others. So we will have to agree to disagree on this point.

    And for the record I have praised Corbyn's ability to communicate and his successful campaign.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,751

    Cyclefree said:



    I agree with you re the DUP.

    But stop with this 40 years ago nonsense. As you well know your leader has been associating with some pretty unpleasant people other than the IRA, right up until the present day. You may think it of no importance but facts cannot be denied.

    Truthfully, I can't think of any unpleasant groups who he's been associating with since becoming leader, let alone urging them to join a potenil Government. Who did you have in mind?

    STW - though I think he resigned from them when he became leader. They are an unpleasant group and I have noted on this board my objections to their stance, shared by Corbyn in relation to, for instance, the IS genocide of the Yazidis.

    Paul Eisner. Raed Salah. The Holocaust denying Palestinian group he travelled with to see President Assad. Not nice people. And not 40 years ago either.

    At best he is naive. Or just turns a blind eye. Or adopts a "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" approach.

    But, really, Nick: are you really happy that your leader has no qualms about associating with people who are Holocaust deniers? Does it not give you the slightest pang? Not even the slightest uncomfortable feeling?

    This is the Labour party, for God's sake, of whom one of your former leaders said: "The party is a moral crusade or it is nothing."

    What is moral about associating with Holocaust deniers? If even the most junior Tory MP did that the shrieks of outrage from the Left would be heard from here to the moon. Why is it OK for your leader?

    For the record I did not say he was inviting them to government.
  • Alastair - I work in a university and also work with young people in a London-based charity. It was very clear to me that there was a rising surge of young people, not on the radar of the pollsters and not reading the tabloids, who had every intention of voting and getting their friends to vote too.

    This 'dark' red 5% was always going to skew the Con45, Lab35% polling intentions.

    My strategy was backing Labour in remain-leaning university towns such as Coventry NW, Leeds NW, Bristol and some in London. When I saw the reports of a large young turn-out (in Bedford - thanks Mike) I was more convinced than ever and projected Con41.5, Lab39.5, Dem8.7, with a turnout of 68-69%. This was less than 1% out on each party and provided ample betting opportunities.

    I guess the lesson is to work out WHO is voting in an election rather than which way they intend to vote. The polling companies understand this to varying degrees.
This discussion has been closed.