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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks reflects on last night’s events

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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chameleon said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: Brady, chair 1922: Think most colleagues thought it would be better result... but no appetite to change the leader #GE2017

    Weak & pathetic from Con. Ever increasing Lab leads in the polls coming on.

    Still haven't heard from Boris...
    The whats? The polls?

    *guffaw*
    Polls were nearly bang on before the pollsters tried playing around with the numbers.
    Before they did this, that or the other. And yet that's what they did.
    Not all of them!
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,679

    Having totally misunderstood stop-loss (it's 200 times *your stake*, not a £200 limit) I'm now sitting on a loss of £540 on the spreads, and a gain of £560 on my other bets.

    £20 up.

    What a waste of time!

    Would you rather be £20 down? ;)
    I put a lot of effort into selecting the bets, a few of which paid off handsomely, and then greedily sold Labour at 207 at 8.30pm last night costing me £500.

    Idiot!
    Maybe you should resign as a bettor and await the betting industry selecting your successor? :D:D
    I am hoping to put together a confidence and supply agreement for my current account with Paddy Power.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,609
    GIN1138 said:

    jonny83 said:

    I get why they won't commit regicide right now, if there wasn't Brexit negotiations in 10 days time it would have happened. Have to put the country first right now.

    Because a Tory leadership contest takes 2-3 months.

    Well it doesn't have to take that long?
    See my edit.
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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Listening to the May interview - by-enlarge she still doesn't answer questions and is treating it like she's still on the campaign.

    If there was ever a time to be straightforward and just be honest this would be it, but she seems totally unable to do this.

    I don't think Maybot was programmed for this eventuality.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,679
    AndyJS said:

    if Jeremy Corbyn does become PM thanks to Sinn Fein

    Wait, how on earth does that work?
    May can't form a Government with the DUP. She resigns. HMQ sends for Corbyn. He says I can do SNP+PC+Green+SF+Labour minority. LDs give him a shot or abstain.
    Hang on, 326 is the number for a majority even if SF took their seats. Con + DUP has more than 326. So SF is totally irrelevant to this equation. Either way, Con+DUP is a majority, and either way, SNP+PC+Green+Lab(+SF or not) isn't. Or am I missing something?
    CON + DUP only gets you 328, even with arch rebels like Morgan and Soubry included in that number. Weak, weak, weak.
    But as long as Corbyn and McDonnell are running the Labour Party, even the most left-wing Tory MPs wouldn't do anything to risk them getting near office. If Labour had more moderate leaders it might be different.
    Precisely. This Government could last for years, whilst achieving rather little.

    Spending and tax decisions will be the main thing. I'd reach out to the LDs as often as I did to the DUP on those.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,791
    I want some of what David Lammy is on......'Jeremy Corbyn is on the cusp of running the country...'

    Oh, and good to hear, the seriously ill Diane Corbyn Abbott is apparently on the mend...
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited June 2017

    Having totally misunderstood stop-loss (it's 200 times *your stake*, not a £200 limit) I'm now sitting on a loss of £540 on the spreads, and a gain of £560 on my other bets.

    £20 up.

    What a waste of time!

    Would you rather be £20 down? ;)
    I put a lot of effort into selecting the bets, a few of which paid off handsomely, and then greedily sold Labour at 207 at 8.30pm last night costing me £500.

    Idiot!
    Maybe you should resign as a bettor and await the betting industry selecting your successor? :D:D
    I am hoping to put together a confidence and supply agreement for my current account with Paddy Power.
    :+1: It sounds like a plan :)

    That's all for now folks. I think I will finish off last night's Pinot Grigio whilst slaving over a hot stove.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,679

    I want some of what David Lammy is on......'Jeremy Corbyn is on the cusp of running the country...'

    Oh, and good to hear, the seriously ill Diane Corbyn Abbott is apparently on the mend...

    I'm glad she's pulled through.

    It was touch and go there for a while.
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Jonathan Powell making great point on BBC News that government no longer neutral in NI negotiations if it coalesces with DUP.
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Jonathan said:


    I don't on agree with Corbyn on many things. FWIW I have many more concerns about McDonnell.

    Yep, me too. Much more intelligent.
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    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    JPK said:

    Hi folks. Hope you're all recovering. Just taking a dip from lurking to put my two cents out there.

    May is going to find out the DUP are tricky customers. After Power Sharing, they get transactional politics in a way the Tories don't. Expect last minute demands for investment in infrastructure in all the right places in NI. Above delivering Brexit, above keeping out Corbyn - the DUP, as with all NI parties has an overriding objective of proving they deliver for 'the community'. They won't have any qualms about letting the Tories down when they need them most. In fact it's probably be a vote winner with the folks back home. The Tories will miss the good old days with the Lib Dems.

    On the betting front - just spotted Skybet are offering 1/100 on TM as PM after the election. Based on my reading of the terms (being invited to form a Government by HM) - hasn't this *already* happened? More a curiosity than anything as it seems an odd market to keep up. On a similar note they're still offering 1/10 on a Con minority government. The DUP aren't getting cabinet posts.

    welcome JPK. I've avoided short priced certainties this GE and I think I'll stick to that for now. Was going put all my spare betting cash on a Lab hold in Sefton Central but never got round to it. I'm sure you're right about the Minority government bit hto.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,791
    Sean_F said:

    If Malcolm g is around, could you please pay our wager of £20 to Keech Hospice, in Luton.

    He made a brief appearance earlier today pleading work pressure for non attendance and suggested any outstanding bets be settled via direct message
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    isam said:

    Holding this GE was the morally correct thing to do IMO, even though I don't think that's why TM called it.

    Agreed on both. Couldn't have a general in 2019 slap bang in the middle of Brexit, and 2020 would mean an extension on article 50 was impractical (and that'll likely be needed).
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,152
    Anyway, looks like Torbay got the third best vote increase in the SW (and a long way beyond it at that), behind only Johnny Mercer in Plymouth Moor View and Thornbury and Yate. I can console myself that I couldn't have done anything more this election.

    Not a whole bunch of consolation though.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Sky - Boris is on manouveres
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,994

    Sky - Boris is on manouveres

    Someone should be!
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    If SF want to take their seats but refuse to swear an oath to the Queen they should be allowed to do so. The idea that you have to lick the arse of the monarchy to exercise your democratic right is bonkers. I wouldn't want to do it.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @IsabelOakeshott: May very belatedly says sorry to Tory MPs. Putting a brave face on it but looks devastated.

    I've started feeling sorry for her. It's totally over.
    Agreed - she talked robóticas - painful to watch.
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    Sky - Boris is on manouveres

    He who wields the knife.........?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,791

    Jonathan Powell making great point on BBC News that government no longer neutral in NI negotiations if it coalesces with DUP.

    Yes, that is problematic.

    Oh well, just as well Sinn Fein is slow to take offense....
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    MimusMimus Posts: 56
    Graham Brady just on R5, he supports the PM staying on. Surely she will last until the next crisis, no reason for challengers to jump in prematurely.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited June 2017
    Thinking further about it, running a minority government is very tricky thing which requires someone of almost exactly the opposite character to Theresa May's: it needs someone very flexible, subtle, good at cajoling, good at making two people with opposite interests think you are on both their sides.

    A 'bloody difficult woman' would actually have been fine for different circumstances, but now we need a Harold Wilson or George Osborne. Not sure who that would be, though.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,022
    One of the good things about the Tory party has been their ability to be ruthless when it comes to leaders who have become a liability. I hope this is not going to be an exception.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    If SF want to take their seats but refuse to swear an oath to the Queen they should be allowed to do so. The idea that you have to lick the arse of the monarchy to exercise your democratic right is bonkers. I wouldn't want to do it.

    since when has lying ever bothered Sinn Fein
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    Mimus said:

    Graham Brady just on R5, he supports the PM staying on. Surely she will last until the next crisis, no reason for challengers to jump in prematurely.

    On sky as well.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,022

    If SF want to take their seats but refuse to swear an oath to the Queen they should be allowed to do so. The idea that you have to lick the arse of the monarchy to exercise your democratic right is bonkers. I wouldn't want to do it.

    It is the law of the land and we should abide by it. It is shameful that you should suggest otherwise.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Sky - Boris is on manouveres

    He who wields the knife.........?
    Maybe. Perhaps he thinks he can topple the lot and force Corbyn to limp along in minority until the Tories decide to detonate it.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902

    Sky - Boris is on manouveres


    Been obvious since last night.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    Boris will have enough support to force an election, but not enough to get into the final two.
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    Jonathan Powell making great point on BBC News that government no longer neutral in NI negotiations if it coalesces with DUP.

    Yes, that is problematic.

    Oh well, just as well Sinn Fein is slow to take offense....
    Ha, indeed!
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,324

    Jonathan Powell making great point on BBC News that government no longer neutral in NI negotiations if it coalesces with DUP.

    I think that's a bit silly as Gentleman John had a similar arrangement with the UUP when his majority got eroded, although that era is probably not a happy precedent.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,791

    Sky - Boris is on manouveres

    He who wields the knife.........?
    I do hope so.....the £350 for the NHS would be hung around his neck from here to eternity....
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    If SF want to take their seats but refuse to swear an oath to the Queen they should be allowed to do so. The idea that you have to lick the arse of the monarchy to exercise your democratic right is bonkers. I wouldn't want to do it.

    since when has lying ever bothered Sinn Fein
    Why should they be forced to lie? The idea you have to sycophantically swear your allegiance to the royals is completely unacceptable.
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    DougieDougie Posts: 57
    Thanks to whichever eagle-eyed punter spotted the WIlliam HIll bet for over 9.5 Scottish Tory seats. I got in at 6/1 and made a nice profit.

    In fact, the commentary here overall has been superb - enough straws in the wind were being reported here to make me doubt that the Tories had it in the bag, whereas the impression given by the media very much was that we were headed for a landslide. Well done everyone. With Mrs May not far from her political deathbed, PB Tories should be approached by CCHQ on bended knee to take over the government of the country.
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    One of the good things about the Tory party has been their ability to be ruthless when it comes to leaders who have become a liability. I hope this is not going to be an exception.

    I think by Sunday morning there will be a fully formed plot to remove her. It looks as if Boris is already on it.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Jonathan Powell making great point on BBC News that government no longer neutral in NI negotiations if it coalesces with DUP.

    I think that's a bit silly as Gentleman John had a similar arrangement with the UUP when his majority got eroded, although that era is probably not a happy precedent.
    That was before the GFA
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,022

    If SF want to take their seats but refuse to swear an oath to the Queen they should be allowed to do so. The idea that you have to lick the arse of the monarchy to exercise your democratic right is bonkers. I wouldn't want to do it.

    since when has lying ever bothered Sinn Fein
    Why should they be forced to lie? The idea you have to sycophantically swear your allegiance to the royals is completely unacceptable.
    You are swearing allegiance to the head of state and as such to the British people. The fact that it is the Queen is immaterial. And it is not the Queen they are objecting to but the very idea of swearing allegiance to the head of the British state.

    Like I said it is stunning and shameful that you should think otherwise.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    One of the good things about the Tory party has been their ability to be ruthless when it comes to leaders who have become a liability. I hope this is not going to be an exception.

    I think by Sunday morning there will be a fully formed plot to remove her. It looks as if Boris is already on it.
    Do you think Osborne regrets stepping down as an MP now?
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    If SF want to take their seats but refuse to swear an oath to the Queen they should be allowed to do so. The idea that you have to lick the arse of the monarchy to exercise your democratic right is bonkers. I wouldn't want to do it.

    since when has lying ever bothered Sinn Fein
    Why should they be forced to lie? The idea you have to sycophantically swear your allegiance to the royals is completely unacceptable.
    you could change the allegiance to the state and they still wouldnt swear in

    they wouldnt swear allegiance to the RoI either for the first 70+ years of its existence

    get real
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Okay, I have come to the view that May deserves pity. She is a broken woman. Someone needs to exact a mercy killing here. She can't go on.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    The Tories need to put the Union and the peace before party and government
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    I don't see her not announcing her resignation within the week and I hope Graham Brady is trying to call for calm so to buy the various runners and riders some time.
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    If SF want to take their seats but refuse to swear an oath to the Queen they should be allowed to do so. The idea that you have to lick the arse of the monarchy to exercise your democratic right is bonkers. I wouldn't want to do it.

    since when has lying ever bothered Sinn Fein
    Why should they be forced to lie? The idea you have to sycophantically swear your allegiance to the royals is completely unacceptable.
    you could change the allegiance to the state and they still wouldnt swear in

    they wouldnt swear allegiance to the RoI either for the first 70+ years of its existence

    get real
    They shouldn't have to swear allegiance to that either. They have been democratically elected. We don't insist on that nonsense at Stormont, so why at Westminster?
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    welfordwelford Posts: 20
    edited June 2017
    There is a big question for moderate Labour MPs. Did you hate Corbyn because you genuinely thought him dangerous and wrongheaded or because you simply thought he wouldn't win? If the former, Corbyn has now thoroughly captured the Party. So are you going to split from Labour? If so, would a moderate New Social Democrat Party work with the Tories in the national interest to get through Brexit? There are several ex-cabinet ministers who could serve again in a National Government that pursued a 'soft Brexit'. As a Tory member, that would be far preferable to me than a DUP deal. It would kill your career in Labour, but if you don't believe in Corbyn anyway, why not put country above Party? And for the Tories, if May won't do the deal, find someone that can.....
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Okay, I have come to the view that May deserves pity. She is a broken woman. Someone needs to exact a mercy killing here. She can't go on.

    She looks broken yes. Phillip will be talking to her tonight I'd suggest.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @bbclaurak: Hearing Boris Johnson stays at FCO and Philip Hammond to stay at Treasury - small number of official annos coming soon
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    If SF want to take their seats but refuse to swear an oath to the Queen they should be allowed to do so. The idea that you have to lick the arse of the monarchy to exercise your democratic right is bonkers. I wouldn't want to do it.

    since when has lying ever bothered Sinn Fein
    Why should they be forced to lie? The idea you have to sycophantically swear your allegiance to the royals is completely unacceptable.
    You are swearing allegiance to the head of state and as such to the British people. The fact that it is the Queen is immaterial. And it is not the Queen they are objecting to but the very idea of swearing allegiance to the head of the British state.

    Like I said it is stunning and shameful that you should think otherwise.
    just plain eejitry
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    You tell that Boris is on manoeuvres. He has tell. He is breathing.

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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    AndyJS said:

    One of the good things about the Tory party has been their ability to be ruthless when it comes to leaders who have become a liability. I hope this is not going to be an exception.

    I think by Sunday morning there will be a fully formed plot to remove her. It looks as if Boris is already on it.
    Do you think Osborne regrets stepping down as an MP now?
    Yep. He would have been in by Monday morning, as PM, had he stayed on.
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Scott_P said:

    Can she even pull together a cabinet? No-one in their right mind will surely want to serve under her, and destroy their reputation in the party.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    If SF want to take their seats but refuse to swear an oath to the Queen they should be allowed to do so. The idea that you have to lick the arse of the monarchy to exercise your democratic right is bonkers. I wouldn't want to do it.

    since when has lying ever bothered Sinn Fein
    Why should they be forced to lie? The idea you have to sycophantically swear your allegiance to the royals is completely unacceptable.
    you could change the allegiance to the state and they still wouldnt swear in

    they wouldnt swear allegiance to the RoI either for the first 70+ years of its existence

    get real
    They shouldn't have to swear allegiance to that either. They have been democratically elected. We don't insist on that nonsense at Stormont, so why at Westminster?
    the reason they dont at Stormont is it stops them shooting people

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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    If SF want to take their seats but refuse to swear an oath to the Queen they should be allowed to do so. The idea that you have to lick the arse of the monarchy to exercise your democratic right is bonkers. I wouldn't want to do it.

    No.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    TMay should step aside - she has fundamentally failed in what she set out to do.

    Although I supported her (vs Corbyn) she was not very impressive with how she handled the election.

    I thought when she called it that she must have prepared her plans, her attack lines, and was up for the fight (e.g. over debates). It never occurred to me she couldn't cope with those, and I have no idea why she called the election given that weakness.

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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    Scott_P said:
    Changed to sausage stuffing please.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    One of the good things about the Tory party has been their ability to be ruthless when it comes to leaders who have become a liability. I hope this is not going to be an exception.

    Who would want to take a poisoned chalice? Keep your head down, position yourself, let her do Brexit then sweep in as the shining new hope
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    Sky - Boris is on manouveres

    He who wields the knife.........?
    I do hope so.....the £350 for the NHS would be hung around his neck from here to eternity....
    If he hadn't been Goved and had won the party members' support, I genuinely think he would have implemented it. (I read somewhere, I think from Dominic Cummings but maybe someone else involved in the Leave campaign, that he viewed committing to 350m for the NHS as a Day One priority in a Boris administration.)
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    My prediction, Theresa will step down due to ill health
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    DearPBDearPB Posts: 439
    AndyJS said:

    One of the good things about the Tory party has been their ability to be ruthless when it comes to leaders who have become a liability. I hope this is not going to be an exception.

    I think by Sunday morning there will be a fully formed plot to remove her. It looks as if Boris is already on it.
    Do you think Osborne regrets stepping down as an MP now?
    It is extraordinary that the 4 most powerful politicians in the country at the start of May 2015 - all of them very young in political terms - have all now left the stage. And there are 3 of them I'd take as PM today instead of what we got.

    The hollowing out of political talent in the UK is appalling; too many are put off before they start, so many others leave early.
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    Mimus said:

    Graham Brady just on R5, he supports the PM staying on. Surely she will last until the next crisis, no reason for challengers to jump in prematurely.

    Any sensible person in Brady's position would hold that line until the very moment he'd hammered out a fait accompli with colleagues for what happens next.

    Doing anything else invites a "what next?" question you can't answer. So you say, "Full support. Full support. Full support. *BANG!*".
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    If SF want to take their seats but refuse to swear an oath to the Queen they should be allowed to do so. The idea that you have to lick the arse of the monarchy to exercise your democratic right is bonkers. I wouldn't want to do it.

    It is the law of the land and we should abide by it. It is shameful that you should suggest otherwise.
    That's a bit much, Richard, saying it is shameful. I am offering another POV and you for one I would expect to debate that. We don't insist on such measures in Stormont, so why in Westminster?
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    isam said:

    tlg86 said:

    isam said:

    Holding this GE was the morally correct thing to do IMO, even though I don't think that's why TM called it. Dave left the country in a hole. If only he had been man enough to put his ego to one side in the national interest. If she is replaced, we will be back to square one, a PM without a mandate

    We had a post about A Level Politics questions about direct democracy and how wise it is to use it. I think if a government is going to do it, they should set out how they would govern in the event of either outcome. That didn't happen last year and it's a big reason why we are where we are.
    Remarkable that a PM would allow a referendum and make no plans for one of the results other than to fuck off! He has damaged the country so much.
    And gave his sidekick something to laugh about. Bullingdon boys = toxic all the way through. Doing a Trump in reverse - senior statesman to rich smug media buffoon.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Is she survives the weekend, she'll be fine. Just a few days out before those Brexit negotiations start....
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tnewtondunn: Breaking: Theresa May to ask her top five Cabinet ministers to all stay in post - Hammond, Boris, Rudd, Fallon and David Davis stay.
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    DearPBDearPB Posts: 439

    Sky - Boris is on manouveres

    He who wields the knife.........?
    I do hope so.....the £350 for the NHS would be hung around his neck from here to eternity....
    If he hadn't been Goved and had won the party members' support, I genuinely think he would have implemented it. (I read somewhere, I think from Dominic Cummings but maybe someone else involved in the Leave campaign, that he viewed committing to 350m for the NHS as a Day One priority in a Boris administration.)
    It's a shame that they weren't able to make speaking to people who might stand against him or might back him a day 1 priority for his leadership campaign.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,152
    GIN1138 said:

    jonny83 said:

    I get why they won't commit regicide right now, if there wasn't Brexit negotiations in 10 days time it would have happened. Have to put the country first right now.

    Because a Tory leadership contest takes 2-3 months.

    Well it doesn't have to take that long?
    If it is a coronation, no. But the membership really, REALLY need to vote for the next Leader/Prime Minister.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    This morning, Theresa May walked back into Downing Street after delivering a speech from a parallel universe. One in which she had just won a solid majority, where she could happily knuckle down to the task – “over the next five years” – of delivering Brexit and containing extremism.

    Until now, I thought that David Cameron’s response to the Scottish independence referendum – the one where he immediately called for a fair deal for the rest of the UK too, instantly crystallising the resentment of the losing Nats – was the most tone-deaf speech from the prime ministerial lectern. But now we have a new winner. There was no hint of humility. No remorse. No acknowledgement that the voters had just told her, in no uncertain terms, that they weren’t buying what she was selling.


    https://capx.co/may-cant-go-back-to-government-as-usual/

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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    Mimus said:

    Graham Brady just on R5, he supports the PM staying on. Surely she will last until the next crisis, no reason for challengers to jump in prematurely.

    Any sensible person in Brady's position would hold that line until the very moment he'd hammered out a fait accompli with colleagues for what happens next.

    Doing anything else invites a "what next?" question you can't answer. So you say, "Full support. Full support. Full support. *BANG!*".
    Yep. Straight out of the Tory playbook.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631

    Sky - Boris is on manouveres

    He who wields the knife.........?
    I do hope so.....the £350 for the NHS would be hung around his neck from here to eternity....
    Unless he delivers it, which he probably would tbh
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    FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299

    Okay, I have come to the view that May deserves pity. She is a broken woman. Someone needs to exact a mercy killing here. She can't go on.

    She looks broken yes. Phillip will be talking to her tonight I'd suggest.

    Yes, that would the kind and decent thing to do. She does look totally distraught and shot emotionally. That latest No 10 interview was painful to watch.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: Breaking: Theresa May to ask her top five Cabinet ministers to all stay in post - Hammond, Boris, Rudd, Fallon and David Davis stay.

    No, no, I need to canvass every day until the next GE, I'm rubbish, I'm flouncing
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    DearPBDearPB Posts: 439
    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: Breaking: Theresa May to ask her top five Cabinet ministers to all stay in post - Hammond, Boris, Rudd, Fallon and David Davis stay.

    "To ask" - what happens if Boris (or Davis or Hammond) declines..... Davis Davis's ego should never be underestimated.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,208


    TMay should step aside - she has fundamentally failed in what she set out to do.

    Although I supported her (vs Corbyn) she was not very impressive with how she handled the election.

    I thought when she called it that she must have prepared her plans, her attack lines, and was up for the fight (e.g. over debates). It never occurred to me she couldn't cope with those, and I have no idea why she called the election given that weakness.

    It's as though she thought all she had to do was show up. The thing is, she had an opportunity to be radical, but they needed to the politics bit of framing their vision. They did none of that.
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited June 2017

    GIN1138 said:

    jonny83 said:

    I get why they won't commit regicide right now, if there wasn't Brexit negotiations in 10 days time it would have happened. Have to put the country first right now.

    Because a Tory leadership contest takes 2-3 months.

    Well it doesn't have to take that long?
    If it is a coronation, no. But the membership really, REALLY need to vote for the next Leader/Prime Minister.
    In practice, doesn't that mean May needs to complete the Brexit negotiations first, or that there needs to be agreement to postpone them? Can't have several months of campaign, and a change of national leadership direction, during the middle of them, surely?
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    GIN1138 said:

    jonny83 said:

    I get why they won't commit regicide right now, if there wasn't Brexit negotiations in 10 days time it would have happened. Have to put the country first right now.

    Because a Tory leadership contest takes 2-3 months.

    Well it doesn't have to take that long?
    If it is a coronation, no. But the membership really, REALLY need to vote for the next Leader/Prime Minister.
    I don't see why the members need to vote. The members will vote Tory anyway and last time they would have picked Theresa.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Okay, I have come to the view that May deserves pity. She is a broken woman. Someone needs to exact a mercy killing here. She can't go on.

    She looks broken yes. Phillip will be talking to her tonight I'd suggest.

    Yes, that would the kind and decent thing to do. She does look totally distraught and shot emotionally. That latest No 10 interview was painful to watch.
    I wonder if he's not sitting there waiting till they are alone. It must break his heart to see her crushed like this.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631

    calum said:
    Photoshopped picture surely – a spoof.
    It's a blatant Photoshop.
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Alan

    I am making a debating point and you are resorting to insults.

    Not like you.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    This is remarkable (to me anyway) - look at the remainer revenge top 20 targets.

    They got 2,3,4,5,7 for starters - including Kensington at 2.


    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/20-mps-remain-campaigners-hit-10290367

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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,022

    If SF want to take their seats but refuse to swear an oath to the Queen they should be allowed to do so. The idea that you have to lick the arse of the monarchy to exercise your democratic right is bonkers. I wouldn't want to do it.

    since when has lying ever bothered Sinn Fein
    Why should they be forced to lie? The idea you have to sycophantically swear your allegiance to the royals is completely unacceptable.
    you could change the allegiance to the state and they still wouldnt swear in

    they wouldnt swear allegiance to the RoI either for the first 70+ years of its existence

    get real
    They shouldn't have to swear allegiance to that either. They have been democratically elected. We don't insist on that nonsense at Stormont, so why at Westminster?
    Because when MPs swear allegiance to the Queen they are swearing allegiance to the head of state rather than to a particular Government. It is exactly the same as the Police and Armed Forces who also swear allegiance to the Queen and through her to the State and the people. It means that in the unlikely event of a Government turning against the people, the armed forces, police and our representatives have sworn to stand by the people not the Government.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,141
    edited June 2017
    Chameleon said:

    jonny83 said:

    I get why they won't commit regicide right now, if there wasn't Brexit negotiations in 10 days time it would have happened. Have to put the country first right now.

    Same, I'm really confused at what the Con MP gameplan is. I think the the MPs are just scared and confused right now.
    They've tried a referendum and an election, but both of those only made things worse.

    Maybe they could try a war next. Nothing dramatic, just a small one they're bound to win. Actually, considering Theresa May's track record, better make it a _very_ small one. Can we persuade Liechtenstein to invade Sark or something?
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    It appears Hammond will stay at No 11. Someone let him out of the broom closet now.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,152
    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: Breaking: Theresa May to ask her top five Cabinet ministers to all stay in post - Hammond, Boris, Rudd, Fallon and David Davis stay.

    Knock that smirk off your face, Hammond......

    Now if he had been savaging Labour's economic offering during the election, rather than sulking over losing his job after the election, then the Tories would have perhaps got a dozen more seats over the line. And a majority Govt. again. Then May could have sacked h..... ah, I see the problem there.....
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    TypoTypo Posts: 195
    I wonder what would have happened under PM Leadsom?

    She probably wouldn't have been able to believe her luck and hung on until 2020.
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    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    May obviously has to go, but priority 1, 2 and 3 for every Conservative mp should be protecting people from a scenario where the nutters across the street get control, so they need to tread very carefully while doing this.
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    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,332
    edited June 2017

    GIN1138 said:

    jonny83 said:

    I get why they won't commit regicide right now, if there wasn't Brexit negotiations in 10 days time it would have happened. Have to put the country first right now.

    Because a Tory leadership contest takes 2-3 months.

    Well it doesn't have to take that long?
    If it is a coronation, no. But the membership really, REALLY need to vote for the next Leader/Prime Minister.
    I don't agree. The membership by and large don't recognise the nightmarish position the new leader is in on doing a Brexit deal and will tend to vote for one offering the deal they personally want but cannot have because, y'know, maths.

    As far as I can see, one route through this is a boring compromiser who will work with Starmer, Labour backbench moderates, and Lib Dems like Lamb and Cable to do a soft Brexit deal. Someone who serves two years, then steps down for a wider contest. Someone like Hammond.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,152
    Chris said:

    Chameleon said:

    jonny83 said:

    I get why they won't commit regicide right now, if there wasn't Brexit negotiations in 10 days time it would have happened. Have to put the country first right now.

    Same, I'm really confused at what the Con MP gameplan is. I think the the MPs are just scared and confused right now.
    They've tried a referendum and an election, but both of those only made things worse.

    Maybe they could try a war next. Nothing dramatic, just a small one they're bound to win. Actually, considering Theresa May's track record, better make it a _very_ small one. Can we persuade Liechtenstein to invade Sark or something?
    Can't we find an excuse to use Trident before Corbyn bins it? At least get our monies worth from them...
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    You take my majority I offer you the same team you rejected.
    This would be hilarious if it weren't criminal
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    If SF want to take their seats but refuse to swear an oath to the Queen they should be allowed to do so. The idea that you have to lick the arse of the monarchy to exercise your democratic right is bonkers. I wouldn't want to do it.

    since when has lying ever bothered Sinn Fein
    Why should they be forced to lie? The idea you have to sycophantically swear your allegiance to the royals is completely unacceptable.
    you could change the allegiance to the state and they still wouldnt swear in

    they wouldnt swear allegiance to the RoI either for the first 70+ years of its existence

    get real
    They shouldn't have to swear allegiance to that either. They have been democratically elected. We don't insist on that nonsense at Stormont, so why at Westminster?
    Because when MPs swear allegiance to the Queen they are swearing allegiance to the head of state rather than to a particular Government. It is exactly the same as the Police and Armed Forces who also swear allegiance to the Queen and through her to the State and the people. It means that in the unlikely event of a Government turning against the people, the armed forces, police and our representatives have sworn to stand by the people not the Government.
    I am sure that we could find a form of words that would be mutually acceptable, it's not beyond the wit of man.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    If you know aliens are real Theresa, get the info out. Go nuclear!
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    DUP

    Loose confidence and supply. Not going to be a formal coalition. It would seem.
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    atia2atia2 Posts: 207

    A 'bloody difficult woman' would actually have been fine for different circumstances

    Being "bloody difficult" is fine in no circumstances. I avoid doing business with "bloody difficult" people. It's absurd that this was made a selling point. Are we children?
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    If SF want to take their seats but refuse to swear an oath to the Queen they should be allowed to do so. The idea that you have to lick the arse of the monarchy to exercise your democratic right is bonkers. I wouldn't want to do it.

    since when has lying ever bothered Sinn Fein
    Why should they be forced to lie? The idea you have to sycophantically swear your allegiance to the royals is completely unacceptable.
    you could change the allegiance to the state and they still wouldnt swear in

    they wouldnt swear allegiance to the RoI either for the first 70+ years of its existence

    get real
    They shouldn't have to swear allegiance to that either. They have been democratically elected. We don't insist on that nonsense at Stormont, so why at Westminster?
    Because when MPs swear allegiance to the Queen they are swearing allegiance to the head of state rather than to a particular Government. It is exactly the same as the Police and Armed Forces who also swear allegiance to the Queen and through her to the State and the people. It means that in the unlikely event of a Government turning against the people, the armed forces, police and our representatives have sworn to stand by the people not the Government.
    I am sure that we could find a form of words that would be mutually acceptable, it's not beyond the wit of man.

    Then it should have been done before, not as an excuse to try and get Corbyn (the loser of the election!) into power.

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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,208

    This is remarkable (to me anyway) - look at the remainer revenge top 20 targets.

    They got 2,3,4,5,7 for starters - including Kensington at 2.


    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/20-mps-remain-campaigners-hit-10290367

    Any Tory Remainer voting Labour should thank their lucky stars that the Scottish Tories came good.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,022

    If SF want to take their seats but refuse to swear an oath to the Queen they should be allowed to do so. The idea that you have to lick the arse of the monarchy to exercise your democratic right is bonkers. I wouldn't want to do it.

    It is the law of the land and we should abide by it. It is shameful that you should suggest otherwise.
    That's a bit much, Richard, saying it is shameful. I am offering another POV and you for one I would expect to debate that. We don't insist on such measures in Stormont, so why in Westminster?
    I have explained why. Read my other post and argue against it if you can. There are reasons for these seemingly archaic traditions and they have nothing to do with privilege or monarchy.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    For any PBer that didn't manage to completely deplete their popcorn supplies overnight...

    @BBCandrewkerr: Lib Dem sources say they're seriously considering going to court to challenge @StephenGethins 2 vote SNP majority in North East Fife.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    If SF want to take their seats but refuse to swear an oath to the Queen they should be allowed to do so. The idea that you have to lick the arse of the monarchy to exercise your democratic right is bonkers. I wouldn't want to do it.

    since when has lying ever bothered Sinn Fein
    Why should they be forced to lie? The idea you have to sycophantically swear your allegiance to the royals is completely unacceptable.
    you could change the allegiance to the state and they still wouldnt swear in

    they wouldnt swear allegiance to the RoI either for the first 70+ years of its existence

    get real
    They shouldn't have to swear allegiance to that either. They have been democratically elected. We don't insist on that nonsense at Stormont, so why at Westminster?
    Because when MPs swear allegiance to the Queen they are swearing allegiance to the head of state rather than to a particular Government. It is exactly the same as the Police and Armed Forces who also swear allegiance to the Queen and through her to the State and the people. It means that in the unlikely event of a Government turning against the people, the armed forces, police and our representatives have sworn to stand by the people not the Government.
    I am sure that we could find a form of words that would be mutually acceptable, it's not beyond the wit of man.
    I swear to represent all the constituents of x in this parliament of the United Kingdom to the best of my ability and without prejudice to their political allegiance and act within the rules and laws of this place for the term of this parliament.
This discussion has been closed.