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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It looks like Mrs May’s UKIP firewall was as good a defence as

SystemSystem Posts: 12,550
edited June 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It looks like Mrs May’s UKIP firewall was as good a defence as the Maginot Line

#GE2017: Bury North:Lab: 53.6% (+12.5)Con: 44.5% (+2.5)LDem: 1.9% (-0.2) pic.twitter.com/skBkQypyHR

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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,575
    First!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,225
    Second, like SNP in loads of seats.....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,532
    Someone posted that Jo Swinson had won East Dunbartonshire. Anyone else heard this?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,842
    Second.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,569
    Gutted Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh has lost though.
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    This may be a wild thread. SCON may help to save the Tories.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Mrs May - about this strong and stable shit........
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,235
    How is George going to fit in leading the Tories with all his other jobs ;-)
  • dazzadazza Posts: 28
    So those damn ukips .... who would have though they would split 50/50 to lab & con
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @GoodwinMJ: **Senior Tories do not expect to have a majority and accept the exit poll is accurate** say BBC
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,225
    Well. I may be wrong about lots of things. I may be gutted. I may not see a new grammar school opening in my life time.

    BUT Snp down. Delicious.

    I'm part Welsh, part Norn Irish, part English - but my soul is Scottish.
  • EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    May campaign worse the Ed Mill
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,265
    In the next election there should be even more tactical voting in Scotland, therefore a further reduction in SNP seats should occur.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    rcs1000 said:

    Someone posted that Jo Swinson had won East Dunbartonshire. Anyone else heard this?

    Yes, confirmed by BBC
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,936
    Theresa May a national laughing stock!
  • William_HWilliam_H Posts: 346
    dazza said:

    So those damn ukips .... who would have though they would split 50/50 to lab & con

    Have they actually done this, or have they just been cancelled out by new voters?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,265
    MIDLOTHIAN SNP to Lab.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,532
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Gutted Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh has lost though.

    Lovely Chelsea lass.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,225
    Scott_P said:

    @GoodwinMJ: **Senior Tories do not expect to have a majority and accept the exit poll is accurate** say BBC

    Hilariously, they said that just before the forecast was moved up to 322 and a raft of unexpected scottish results came in.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,569
    rcs1000 said:

    Someone posted that Jo Swinson had won East Dunbartonshire. Anyone else heard this?

    Yes - result not announced yet.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Took the moderate voters for granted.Did she think they would just ignore the UKIP rhetoric?
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    Paristonda Posts: 1,154
    2:21AM
    The_Apocalypse said:
    » show previous quotes
    It's a great thing for Britain.

    Paul Dacre right now :lol:
    Yes, that is one of the great take homes from this, whatever the final result. Proof that it is not the Sun 'wot' wins it
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    GIN1138 said:

    Theresa May a national laughing stock!

    She's heading for 45% of the popular vote as things stand.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,575
    Chameleon said:

    In the next election there should be even more tactical voting in Scotland, therefore a further reduction in SNP seats should occur.

    An upside of having an autumn election!
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    rcs1000 said:

    Someone posted that Jo Swinson had won East Dunbartonshire. Anyone else heard this?

    Tom Bradby on ITV claimed she'd won.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Theresa May in Ruth Davidson's pocket?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,842
    AndyJS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Theresa May a national laughing stock!

    She's heading for 45% of the popular vote as things stand.
    What about Labour?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,974
    Mortimer said:

    Scott_P said:

    @GoodwinMJ: **Senior Tories do not expect to have a majority and accept the exit poll is accurate** say BBC

    Hilariously, they said that just before the forecast was moved up to 322 and a raft of unexpected scottish results came in.
    Probably expecting more losses in Wales and England.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    JennyFreeman said:

    This may be a wild thread. SCON may help to save the Tories.

    Super Ruth! Saves the UK party and might kill off Scottish Independence for a long time.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,922
    Happy that smug bar steward Robertson is gone.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,265
    Mortimer said:

    Scott_P said:

    @GoodwinMJ: **Senior Tories do not expect to have a majority and accept the exit poll is accurate** say BBC

    Hilariously, they said that just before the forecast was moved up to 322 and a raft of unexpected scottish results came in.
    What were the unexpected results?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,034
    Angus Robertson and Tasmina both gone blue!
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Mortimer said:

    Scott_P said:

    @GoodwinMJ: **Senior Tories do not expect to have a majority and accept the exit poll is accurate** say BBC

    Hilariously, they said that just before the forecast was moved up to 322 and a raft of unexpected scottish results came in.
    Oh good, like Farage conceding on EUref.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    BBC forecast now saying:
    Con 322
    Lab 261
    SNP 32
    LD 13
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,997
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Gutted Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh has lost though.

    Why?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    For the purpose of government-forming, wins off the SNP are as good for the Conservatives as wins off Labour. Wins off the Lib Dems are about half as good.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Chris Bryant polled 64%, +13%
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,974
    When are these bloody LD seats coming in?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Scott_P said:

    @GoodwinMJ: **Senior Tories do not expect to have a majority and accept the exit poll is accurate** say BBC

    Hilariously, they said that just before the forecast was moved up to 322 and a raft of unexpected scottish results came in.
    Probably expecting more losses in Wales and England.
    And 322 is not a majority!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,569
    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Gutted Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh has lost though.

    Lovely Chelsea lass.
    So about our Vauxhall bet ....
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    AndyJS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Theresa May a national laughing stock!

    She's heading for 45% of the popular vote as things stand.
    Jesus really?
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    AndyJS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Theresa May a national laughing stock!

    She's heading for 45% of the popular vote as things stand.
    Labour around 40% on your figures? Yes it's extraordinary, highest Tory vote since 1970 and maybe even before then, and yet toast.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Winners: Corbyn & Davidson
    Losers: May & Sturgeon
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,422
    BBC forecast

    Cons 322
    Lab 261
  • thedevonloftthedevonloft Posts: 12
    Ruth Davidson next Tory leader? Certainly knows how to run a campaign unlike the utter useless TM!!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    New forecast: Tories on 322 seats.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,966
    322 Con + 8 DUP = Majority. Phew, I guess.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    EVEL seemed like a good idea at the time !
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,974
    not_on_fire said:

    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Scott_P said:

    @GoodwinMJ: **Senior Tories do not expect to have a majority and accept the exit poll is accurate** say BBC

    Hilariously, they said that just before the forecast was moved up to 322 and a raft of unexpected scottish results came in.
    Probably expecting more losses in Wales and England.
    And 322 is not a majority!
    Eh, close enough - thank you SF :)
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    Con gain Clacton (from UKIP)
  • dazzadazza Posts: 28
    regarding BBC. What is difference between a forecast and a projection?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,225
    edited June 2017
    AlastairMeeks said:

    For the purpose of government-forming, wins off the SNP are as good for the Conservatives as wins off Labour. Wins off the Lib Dems are about half as good.

    Yup. Bang on.

    Mr Meeks - I get the feeling you wonder if Scotland might save Tory maj....?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,532
    edited June 2017
    not_on_fire said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Someone posted that Jo Swinson had won East Dunbartonshire. Anyone else heard this?

    Yes, confirmed by BBC
    I guess that means there will be at least four Scottish Liberal Democrats, and perhaps as many as seven eight.

    Near certain:
    East Dunbartonshire
    Edinburgh West
    Fife NE
    O&S

    Likely:
    CS&ER
    RS&L

    Possible:
    A&B
    Gordon
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,569
    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Gutted Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh has lost though.

    Why?
    Have you seen what she looks like?

    I needed to pour a bucket of cold water over Hertsmere Pubgoer when he first saw what she looked like.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,235
    edited June 2017
    SeanT said:

    I will never have to see Theresa May doing that freaky grimace ever again. Thank fuck. I feel sorry for her, but she just didn't cut the Colman's.

    New balls, please.

    Ed Balls?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,709
    edited June 2017
    Con Hold ALdershot. PHEW

    Shipley is a warning to the money buyers though !
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,422
    edited June 2017
    Conservatives gain Ochil and South Perthshire

    Swing 16% SNP to Conservatives
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Paristonda said:

    Paristonda Posts: 1,154
    2:21AM
    The_Apocalypse said:
    » show previous quotes
    It's a great thing for Britain.

    Paul Dacre right now :lol:
    Yes, that is one of the great take homes from this, whatever the final result. Proof that it is not the Sun 'wot' wins it

    Yep.

    I'm especially happy that the Mail's influence has proven to be limited though. I actually have concerns re security with Corbyn, but the Mail don't hate Corbyn because of that, they hate him simply because he is Labour leader. They hate any Labour leader, and any leftie.
  • EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    Amber Rudd gone?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,575
    dazza said:

    regarding BBC. What is difference between a forecast and a projection?

    I think the forecast uses the exit poll as a base, but then adjusts it based on the results so far.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,661
    Paristonda said:

    BBC forecast now saying:
    Con 322
    Lab 261
    SNP 32
    LD 13

    I find it bizarre it's upscale the Tory seat figure given what we've been hearing.

    That would just be enough with the DUP. Blimey.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @janemerrick23: So wait. if @michaelgove inadvertently led to May coronation, and a hard Brexit is off table because of this result... has he lost Brexit?
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    Scotland is an entirely different election to the rest of the UK, the trends are completely different.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    Stonking swings to the Tories in Scotland
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Essexit said:

    322 Con + 8 DUP = Majority. Phew, I guess.

    It might be more than 8....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,422
    Bury North

    Labour gain from Conservatives
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @britainelects: Looking likely Amber Rudd has lost her Hastings & Rye seat.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Con 322 .... probably wouldn't bother with a formal coalition, just chuck the DUP a few goodies.
  • chloechloe Posts: 308
    Might the Tories just scrape through? May needs to go though.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    hunchman said:

    AndyJS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Theresa May a national laughing stock!

    She's heading for 45% of the popular vote as things stand.
    Labour around 40% on your figures? Yes it's extraordinary, highest Tory vote since 1970 and maybe even before then, and yet toast.
    This is the Tory dilemma. When you've just gone from 37% to 45% of the vote, you need to think long and hard before changing political direction as a result.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    HYUFD said:

    BBC forecast

    Cons 322
    Lab 261

    That'll be a laugh with the Shinners not taking their seats!
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Lab hold Chorley :)
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Amber Valley very good for Con: +12.6 compared to +3.6 for Lab
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,422
    not_on_fire said:

    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Scott_P said:

    @GoodwinMJ: **Senior Tories do not expect to have a majority and accept the exit poll is accurate** say BBC

    Hilariously, they said that just before the forecast was moved up to 322 and a raft of unexpected scottish results came in.
    Probably expecting more losses in Wales and England.
    And 322 is not a majority!
    Just 4 off though, with the DUP Tories would be on 331, a majority of 5
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,709
    not_on_fire said:

    Con gain Clacton (from UKIP)

    Kerching.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,575
    edited June 2017
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Looking likely Amber Rudd has lost her Hastings & Rye seat.

    Meh :(
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,567
    not_on_fire said:

    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Scott_P said:

    @GoodwinMJ: **Senior Tories do not expect to have a majority and accept the exit poll is accurate** say BBC

    Hilariously, they said that just before the forecast was moved up to 322 and a raft of unexpected scottish results came in.
    Probably expecting more losses in Wales and England.
    And 322 is not a majority!
    but 326 - SF + DUP is a majority (just)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,235
    Tory seat number up on initial estimate, that seems so counter-intuitive to what we are seeing so far.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,936
    edited June 2017
    AndyJS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Theresa May a national laughing stock!

    She's heading for 45% of the popular vote as things stand.
    Who cares about national vote shares? She had a safe majority and blew it!

    Under FPTP winning seats is all that counts. And she's lost. She's a loser and a joke and an embarrassment!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,225
    not_on_fire said:

    Con gain Clacton (from UKIP)

    Woo. Thats another loss cancelled out.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,922
    edited June 2017
    chloe said:

    Might the Tories just scrape through? May needs to go though.

    She will be gone by 1pm today. No question. Will stay on for the leadership election, that's alll.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,812
    Y0kel said:

    Essexit said:

    322 Con + 8 DUP = Majority. Phew, I guess.

    It might be more than 8....
    Which are their gains?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    HYUFD said:

    Conservatives gain Ochil and South Perthshire

    Swing 16% SNP to Conservatives

    Oh I dunno.....swapped one Tory for another......
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    dazza said:

    So those damn ukips .... who would have though they would split 50/50 to lab & con

    It should be no surprise. It was well known thst many Labour WWC voters had gone UKIP. Did anyone really expect them to become Tories after UKIP collapsed?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,075
    SeanT said:

    I will never have to see Theresa May doing that freaky grimace ever again. Thank fuck. I feel sorry for her, but she just didn't cut the Colman's.

    New balls, please.

    LOL. Another mood-swing from our favourite insulated poster?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,808
    edited June 2017
    CON so far:

    4 gains
    5 losses
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,709
    Y0kel said:

    Essexit said:

    322 Con + 8 DUP = Majority. Phew, I guess.

    It might be more than 8....
    I think I backed the DUP in Belfast South...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Mortimer said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    For the purpose of government-forming, wins off the SNP are as good for the Conservatives as wins off Labour. Wins off the Lib Dems are about half as good.

    Yup. Bang on.

    Mr Meeks - I get the feeling you wonder if Scotland might save Tory maj....?
    No. It might mean a Conservative government though.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    Tories are going to win overall majority IMO. Good results in the Midlands. Could still gain seats like NE Derbyshire.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Tory seat number up on initial estimate, that seems so counter-intuitive to what we are seeing so far.

    Maybe doing even better in Scotland than expected?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/m44tweet/status/872987863033499648
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,422
    edited June 2017
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Tory seat number up on initial estimate, that seems so counter-intuitive to what we are seeing so far.

    It is the huge SNP to Tory swing in Scotland which is making up for most of the Tory losses in England and Wales, so far Tories gained 3 in Scotland and lost 4 in England
  • EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    May must be writing her goodbye speech
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,661
    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Gutted Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh has lost though.

    Why?
    She has a little bit of the sex?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,225
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Y0kel said:

    Essexit said:

    322 Con + 8 DUP = Majority. Phew, I guess.

    It might be more than 8....
    Which are their gains?
    Just gained somewhere from UUP.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,249
    Yes I think we're going to go into a S&C agreement with the DUP.
  • Kevin_McCandlessKevin_McCandless Posts: 392
    So if the BBC is right, we're back to the Tory death-watch of the last years of the Major government.

    Expect another election in a year or two.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,125
    How do I vote for Ruth to replace Paul Nuttall as Pope?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/bbcphilipsim/status/872988551327223808
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,974
    SeanT said:

    Scots have really gone off indy.

    But focusing endlessly on IndyRef2 showed how desperate the unionists are!

    (I trust Indy supporters will let me have that one, it's been a bad night for my new team)
This discussion has been closed.