politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final poll, Ipsos MORI, has CON lead up 3 to 8% + latest b
Comments
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Apologies if already posted but Baxter, who was on Con majority of 72 this morning, now has majority of 66.0
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Almost...AndyJS said:
It would almost be impossible for the LD vote to be any lower in a lot constituencies, for example in some Glasgow seats where they got about 2% last time.Dadge said:
LD vote will be lower than last time.AndyJS said:
Answer from Betfair: they're for the UK as a whole including NI.AndyJS said:
Good question, I was assuming it was for GB but maybe it's UK. I'll ask Betfair on Twitter.MarkSenior said:
Does that include NI votes or just EWS ?AndyJS said:3.6 for the LDs to get more than 10% seems like a value bet to me.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1310842950 -
John Curtice would have had a good idea from about 2pm onwards according to this:Casino_Royale said:For extra tension: as OGH says on Twitter, Curtice and Fisher will have a good idea of what's happening now from the exit poll.
4 hours to go..
https://www.holyrood.com/articles/inside-politics/man-behind-numbers-interview-professor-john-curtice
"At about 2pm, Curtice could make a fair punt at the result but he won’t, yet."0 -
hi gambit. that's even more than me. good luck.gambit said:First post - I've got 68 separate fixed odds bets riding on the election.
I hope you guys know what you're talking about!0 -
I wonder what Margaret Beckett is thinking right now
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Pub Quiz Time.
Lost Deposits in the 2015 General Election
Conservative lost deposits 2015: 18/647 (£9,000)
Labour lost deposits 2015: 3/631 (£1,500)
UKIP lost deposits 2015: 80/624 (£40,000)
Liberal Democrat lost deposits 2015: 340/631 (£170,000)
Green Party lost deposits 2015: 442/573 (£221,000)
SNP lost deposits 2015: 0/59 (£0)
Plaid Cymru lost deposits 2015: 8/40 (£4,000).
Question - Name the 3 labour constituencies and 18 tory seats0 -
Oh dear ;-)gambit said:First post - I've got 68 separate fixed odds bets riding on the election.
I hope you guys know what you're talking about!0 -
Recall a poster in 2015 saying they were proxy voting for some relative but weren't going to follow the instruction they were given. DisgracefulPulpstar said:
I'm sure she has, I'd happily cast a proxy for Labour if asked - even at this election.murali_s said:Voted by proxy - hope my sister followed my instructions!!
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She always had lots of stats to hand, but didn't have the deft touch to handle folk on here. Makes you wonder how she would cope with fronting a general election campaign. No sense of humour on show. Always politics - never seemed to be any other aspects of life engaged with. Rather like Theresa May in that regard. Bookends to, say, a Boris.Peter_the_Punter said:
As you know Mark, she posted on this forum for quite some time. What did you make of her?MarqueeMark said:
I remember back in 2010 being told by locals that Yvette was really not liked in her constituency - it was only the colour of her rosette that got her in.....dyedwoolie said:
Put it this way. I think Yvette is nervous.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To whose benefitdyedwoolie said:Starting to feel the NE and Yorkshire will provide some jaw dropping moments tonight
I mean, we have no idea about the woman's views on the Second Punic Wars. On here!0 -
O/T only 3 weeks late...still take him back in a heartbeat.
https://twitter.com/GarethBale11/status/8728435806243061760 -
Early in the campaign I placed 100 bets each of £1 on lab seats in Leave areas or/big UKIP votes to squease. I now think your betting strategy was way better than mine!!!Scrapheap_as_was said:
Even if it is a Tory Maj so at least my bets come in on that - if the maj is forecast to be sub say 40 then he'll just bang on about how it's been a waste of time for TMay etc and a massive success for Corbynistas (which in part is true actually) ....BigRich said:
I don't think I can watch ITV now, the thought of Owen Jones gloating is going to be painful.Scrapheap_as_was said:Bugger - was going to watch the ITV coverage once we had DD and the first Bong as interested in Balls/Ozzie filling for circa 2 hours... but this is a real turn-off.... unless there's a big tory maj predicted!!
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872853742093316097
O, And for the record I don't think its going to be as big a win for the conservatives as most posters on hear, may be with Con 335 +/-20 seats, witch I now is quite a big range, but does include No Overall Majority!
I'd be consoling myself back on BBC whilst he does though thinking that outcome means Labour would be facing a definite 12 years out of power...
What this election has done is move the Octavian window (or whatever it is called) massively in the direction of socialism, state intervention in the economy and stateisum in general. and that is a very bad thing especially at the down of BREXIT.0 -
That is shameful.kle4 said:
Recall a poster in 2015 saying they were proxy voting for some relative but weren't going to follow the instruction they were given. DisgracefulPulpstar said:
I'm sure she has, I'd happily cast a proxy for Labour if asked - even at this election.murali_s said:Voted by proxy - hope my sister followed my instructions!!
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Yeah...I.ve no particular axe to grind as I'd like Lamb and Clegg to hold on. I was just struck by the pessimism coming from a Lib Dem activist. Praying for 5 seats didn't sound at all good. We'll see.Dadge said:
There'll be a lot of churn. Losing Southport, C&W, maybe N Norfolk. Farron scraping home. But gaining a couple in Scotland and one or two In London. So maybe about the same number of MPs at the end.midwinter said:Has anyone heard that the Lib Dems are in a lot of trouble. Chap who told me that Norman Baker and Stephen Lloyd were losing about this time of day in 2015 reckons they're praying for 5 MPs. (He worked for Baker).
Farron losing, Clegg ok. Don't know how true it is.
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Evening all! Another lurker here.. stepping out of the shadows! Been following this page for about two years now. Must also give praise, as many other lurkers have before me, to Mike, TSE, et al for all of their riproaring tips and dialogue!
I've been studying Bill Hills 'Your Odds', and I've found a couple of (What I think to be) potential gems:
Conservatives to win over 340 seats, Labour Over 175 Seats, Greens Exactly 1 Seat, and UKIP No Seats - 6/5
First constituency to be counted before 22.45.00 - 5/2.
Would be interested to hear your thoughts, both for and against.0 -
Did she? I know the 'snowflake' poster was rumoured to be her, so was that eventually confirmed?Peter_the_Punter said:
As you know Mark, she posted on this forum for quite some time. What did you make of her?MarqueeMark said:
I remember back in 2010 being told by locals that Yvette was really not liked in her constituency - it was only the colour of her rosette that got her in.....dyedwoolie said:
Put it this way. I think Yvette is nervous.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To whose benefitdyedwoolie said:Starting to feel the NE and Yorkshire will provide some jaw dropping moments tonight
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Predicting Tory gains in London and Labour ones up north is certainly a contrary approach.Dadge said:
Not many winners there.TravelJunkie said:Constituency bets
Sheffield Hallam - Lib Dem Hold 4/7. (3 figures bet)
Bets ranging from £20-£50
Gower - Labour gain 11/10
Ynys Mon - Tory Gain 7/1
York Central - Tory Gain 5/1
Tooting - Tory Gain 9/4
Hampstead/Kilburn - Tory Gain 2/1
Ealing Central/Acton - Tory gain 7/5
Wakefield - Labour hold 2/1
Morley & Outwood - Labour gain 5/2
Ipswich - Labour gain 9/1
Edinburgh North & Leith - Labour gain 4/1
I'm going to lose some but gain some I hope. 6 weeks till my P & O cruise so this will help the pot.0 -
If the Tories get a majority above 125 then I'd argue that it reinforced the traditional view.BigRich said:
Early in the campaign I placed 100 bets each of £1 on lab seats in Leave areas or/big UKIP votes to squease. I now think your betting strategy was way better than mine!!!Scrapheap_as_was said:
Even if it is a Tory Maj so at least my bets come in on that - if the maj is forecast to be sub say 40 then he'll just bang on about how it's been a waste of time for TMay etc and a massive success for Corbynistas (which in part is true actually) ....BigRich said:
I don't think I can watch ITV now, the thought of Owen Jones gloating is going to be painful.Scrapheap_as_was said:Bugger - was going to watch the ITV coverage once we had DD and the first Bong as interested in Balls/Ozzie filling for circa 2 hours... but this is a real turn-off.... unless there's a big tory maj predicted!!
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872853742093316097
O, And for the record I don't think its going to be as big a win for the conservatives as most posters on hear, may be with Con 335 +/-20 seats, witch I now is quite a big range, but does include No Overall Majority!
I'd be consoling myself back on BBC whilst he does though thinking that outcome means Labour would be facing a definite 12 years out of power...
What this election has done is move the Octavian window (or whatever it is called) massively in the direction of socialism, state intervention in the economy and stateisum in general. and that is a very bad thing especially at the down of BREXIT.0 -
Perhaps they were thinking about vote swapPulpstar said:
That is shameful.kle4 said:
Recall a poster in 2015 saying they were proxy voting for some relative but weren't going to follow the instruction they were given. DisgracefulPulpstar said:
I'm sure she has, I'd happily cast a proxy for Labour if asked - even at this election.murali_s said:Voted by proxy - hope my sister followed my instructions!!
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logical_song said:
Oh dear ;-)gambit said:First post - I've got 68 separate fixed odds bets riding on the election.
I hope you guys know what you're talking about!
- and welcome aboard Mr gambit. 0 -
I live in Derby South. I've had 3 labour leaflets and nothing else. take that as you will. Rumours in the local radio think it could be close but personally I doubt it.AndyJS said:
Are there any rumours about Derby South? I would have thought she's fairly safe.GeoffH said:I wonder what Margaret Beckett is thinking right now
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I wonder whether David Herdson grabbed him by the throat shook him warmly by the hand?AndreaParma_82 said:Ed Balls was campaigning in Wakefield earlier today
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Derby North of course is the exciting race in that general area.spudgfsh said:
I live in Derby South. I've had 3 labour leaflets and nothing else. take that as you will. Rumours in the local radio think it could be close but personally I doubt it.AndyJS said:
Are there any rumours about Derby South? I would have thought she's fairly safe.GeoffH said:I wonder what Margaret Beckett is thinking right now
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I don't know, the Tory majority is only 41 votes.TravelJunkie said:0 -
16 in NI, Bootle and a Glasgow something or other. NE Hampshire, Witney and O&S.TravelJunkie said:Pub Quiz Time.
Lost Deposits in the 2015 General Election
Conservative lost deposits 2015: 18/647 (£9,000)
Labour lost deposits 2015: 3/631 (£1,500)
UKIP lost deposits 2015: 80/624 (£40,000)
Liberal Democrat lost deposits 2015: 340/631 (£170,000)
Green Party lost deposits 2015: 442/573 (£221,000)
SNP lost deposits 2015: 0/59 (£0)
Plaid Cymru lost deposits 2015: 8/40 (£4,000).
Question - Name the 3 labour constituencies and 18 tory seats0 -
Amid all the discussion about whether the pollsters have managed to poll young voters accurately, it is interesting that there doesn't appear to have been much focus on the other big "non-voters" - those who turned out in numbers to vote for Brexit only one year ago. It was Brexit that drove these people to the polls and they helped deliver Brexit majorities in 400 seats, a huge number of them Labour held. If these people turn out again, on the basis of the single issue that was required to bring them out last year, then are there any (non-metropolitan) Labour seats that can truly be considered safe? And how have the pollsters accounted for them?0
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Very impressive to only lose 3 deposits.TravelJunkie said:Pub Quiz Time.
Lost Deposits in the 2015 General Election
Conservative lost deposits 2015: 18/647 (£9,000)
Labour lost deposits 2015: 3/631 (£1,500)
UKIP lost deposits 2015: 80/624 (£40,000)
Liberal Democrat lost deposits 2015: 340/631 (£170,000)
Green Party lost deposits 2015: 442/573 (£221,000)
SNP lost deposits 2015: 0/59 (£0)
Plaid Cymru lost deposits 2015: 8/40 (£4,000).
Question - Name the 3 labour constituencies and 18 tory seats
Maidenhead? North East Hampshire?0 -
I expect the collapse of UKIP to keep it blueTravelJunkie said:0 -
Wikipedia is talking balls. The new and old clubs existed at the same time. The player contracts were TUPE'd. It is a new club.RobD said:
Wikipedia (fount of all knowledge) still maintains they were formed 145 years ago.kle4 said:
Seems like a sound decision by the courts - the new Rangers are a legally distinct entity, aren't they? Even in plain English I wouldn't say they were relegated.Alistair said:
Rangers weren't relegated. They were liquidated. They ceased to exist.oldpolitics said:
Not as such but given the success of Coral in the courts on refusing to pay out at similar odds on the bet "Rangers to be Relegated" (and the contortions they went through to prove that the plain English meaning of the word "Relegated" did not apply to this instance of "a technical adjustment of the club's status from a higher division to a lower division") included their defence claim that "We'd never have offered those odds if we thought there was any chance of it actually happening", one presumes the kind of event that would see the bet win would also be treated as an opportunity to palp the bet, particularly given Coral and Ladbrokes are now part of the same stable.JohnLilburne said:
I thought gambling debts were unenforceable.FF43 said:
As the exclusion is almost certainly unenforceable, I imagine he would pay it out. It would otherwise be, see you in court.TOPPING said:
Shadsy said he would have paid out the £1m.Andrew said:
What's really silly is that Ladbrokes max politics payout is apparently 250k, so this punter basically got a 249/1 price for something that's about as likely as Elvis for next President.KentRising said:
Inexplicable.Chameleon said:
(yes he said "would've" - WHAT DOES HE KNOW????)
The punishment for bankruptcy is relegation. Old rangers was not relegated. A new club was formed.0 -
That's a gentleman's agreement. If someone shafts on the other end of your swap then tough chitties. A proxy vote is legally quite different.Blue_rog said:
Perhaps they were thinking about vote swapPulpstar said:
That is shameful.kle4 said:
Recall a poster in 2015 saying they were proxy voting for some relative but weren't going to follow the instruction they were given. DisgracefulPulpstar said:
I'm sure she has, I'd happily cast a proxy for Labour if asked - even at this election.murali_s said:Voted by proxy - hope my sister followed my instructions!!
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I live in Derby North. I would have thought Margaret Beckett would be as safe as houses in Derby South. If she loses, Labour really is in for a bad night.spudgfsh said:
I live in Derby South. I've had 3 labour leaflets and nothing else. take that as you will. Rumours in the local radio think it could be close but personally I doubt it.AndyJS said:
Are there any rumours about Derby South? I would have thought she's fairly safe.GeoffH said:I wonder what Margaret Beckett is thinking right now
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In 1974 my mother had a proxy vote for my father who was at college and wanted her to vote Labour. She still lived with her parents, and her father (my grandfather) made her vote Tory for him instead.Pulpstar said:
That is shameful.kle4 said:
Recall a poster in 2015 saying they were proxy voting for some relative but weren't going to follow the instruction they were given. DisgracefulPulpstar said:
I'm sure she has, I'd happily cast a proxy for Labour if asked - even at this election.murali_s said:Voted by proxy - hope my sister followed my instructions!!
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My big bet is still LDs sub 10. I've got £50 on that at 6/1.TravelJunkie said:
Its value betting. If 3 come off, I've made profit. I also got two bets that the tories will win 375/400 seats at 7/2 and 400/425 7/1. that was 3 days ago odds.Dadge said:
Not many winners there.TravelJunkie said:Constituency bets
Sheffield Hallam - Lib Dem Hold 4/7. (3 figures bet)
Bets ranging from £20-£50
Gower - Labour gain 11/10
Ynys Mon - Tory Gain 7/1
York Central - Tory Gain 5/1
Tooting - Tory Gain 9/4
Hampstead/Kilburn - Tory Gain 2/1
Ealing Central/Acton - Tory gain 7/5
Wakefield - Labour hold 2/1
Morley & Outwood - Labour gain 5/2
Ipswich - Labour gain 9/1
Edinburgh North & Leith - Labour gain 4/1
I'm going to lose some but gain some I hope. 6 weeks till my P & O cruise so this will help the pot.0 -
When I bet on horses, I never back the favourite, I always back horses light on trip or off the radar that going in quiet. That's where you get good odds.IanB2 said:
Predicting Tory gains in London and Labour ones up north is certainly a contrary approach.Dadge said:
Not many winners there.TravelJunkie said:Constituency bets
Sheffield Hallam - Lib Dem Hold 4/7. (3 figures bet)
Bets ranging from £20-£50
Gower - Labour gain 11/10
Ynys Mon - Tory Gain 7/1
York Central - Tory Gain 5/1
Tooting - Tory Gain 9/4
Hampstead/Kilburn - Tory Gain 2/1
Ealing Central/Acton - Tory gain 7/5
Wakefield - Labour hold 2/1
Morley & Outwood - Labour gain 5/2
Ipswich - Labour gain 9/1
Edinburgh North & Leith - Labour gain 4/1
I'm going to lose some but gain some I hope. 6 weeks till my P & O cruise so this will help the pot.
OK in the london seats the tories got over 22k votes in hampstead/ealing and I think that will happen again and I think there is value. Tooting doesn't have sadiq khan anymore and its more tory than people think.
Morley and Outwood - tory won with a very small tory vote. Definitely can be knocked over. Ipswich and Ynys Mon are outsiders but there is value because on the ground ben gummer has been campaigning solely in ipswich and local polls do have him down.
Wakefield I think Mary Creagh will be re-elected. She's a blarite but she's not disagreeable.0 -
Sheffield Hallam is one of the best bets of the night at 4/7
Labour threw everything at him and did everything possible and they couldn't beat him why would he lose now. Hes a popular guy. He will hold by around 5k0 -
welcome dan, the first sounds fair. I have no clue about the second.Oman_Dan said:Evening all! Another lurker here.. stepping out of the shadows! Been following this page for about two years now. Must also give praise, as many other lurkers have before me, to Mike, TSE, et al for all of their riproaring tips and dialogue!
I've been studying Bill Hills 'Your Odds', and I've found a couple of (What I think to be) potential gems:
Conservatives to win over 340 seats, Labour Over 175 Seats, Greens Exactly 1 Seat, and UKIP No Seats - 6/5
First constituency to be counted before 22.45.00 - 5/2.
Would be interested to hear your thoughts, both for and against.0 -
When there was a 25 point lead it could have been argued that she could be in trouble (she only just won in 1983) but I doubt it'll happen now. If I was the local Tory I'd be putting on leaflets that she'd nominated JC in the first placeReprobatus said:
I live in Derby North. I would have thought Margaret Beckett would be as safe as houses in Derby South. If she loses, Labour really is in for a bad night.spudgfsh said:
I live in Derby South. I've had 3 labour leaflets and nothing else. take that as you will. Rumours in the local radio think it could be close but personally I doubt it.AndyJS said:
Are there any rumours about Derby South? I would have thought she's fairly safe.GeoffH said:I wonder what Margaret Beckett is thinking right now
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No, I recall them justifying the decision on the basis that they knew better than the relative in question, and would be the one to live longer with any consequences or words to that effect.Blue_rog said:
Perhaps they were thinking about vote swapPulpstar said:
That is shameful.kle4 said:
Recall a poster in 2015 saying they were proxy voting for some relative but weren't going to follow the instruction they were given. DisgracefulPulpstar said:
I'm sure she has, I'd happily cast a proxy for Labour if asked - even at this election.murali_s said:Voted by proxy - hope my sister followed my instructions!!
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LOL. I'd respond with that, except I might need to ask him for a contract in a few months ...MarkHopkins said:JosiasJessop said:I despair when an intelligent person I know, like and respect posts a big banner on FB saying: "Vote Labour if you have the faintest grasp on sanity."
FFS.
No. That's accurate. You are likely to vote Labour if you only have the faintest grasp on sanity...0 -
Just want to say this (and your others today) is a far better post than the partisan stuff we saw over the last few days.TravelJunkie said:
When I bet on horses, I never back the favourite, I always back horses light on trip or off the radar that going in quiet. That's where you get good odds.IanB2 said:
Predicting Tory gains in London and Labour ones up north is certainly a contrary approach.Dadge said:
Not many winners there.TravelJunkie said:Constituency bets
Sheffield Hallam - Lib Dem Hold 4/7. (3 figures bet)
Bets ranging from £20-£50
Gower - Labour gain 11/10
Ynys Mon - Tory Gain 7/1
York Central - Tory Gain 5/1
Tooting - Tory Gain 9/4
Hampstead/Kilburn - Tory Gain 2/1
Ealing Central/Acton - Tory gain 7/5
Wakefield - Labour hold 2/1
Morley & Outwood - Labour gain 5/2
Ipswich - Labour gain 9/1
Edinburgh North & Leith - Labour gain 4/1
I'm going to lose some but gain some I hope. 6 weeks till my P & O cruise so this will help the pot.
OK in the london seats the tories got over 22k votes in hampstead/ealing and I think that will happen again and I think there is value. Tooting doesn't have sadiq khan anymore and its more tory than people think.
Morley and Outwood - tory won with a very small tory vote. Definitely can be knocked over. Ipswich and Ynys Mon are outsiders but there is value because on the ground ben gummer has been campaigning solely in ipswich and local polls do have him down.
Wakefield I think Mary Creagh will be re-elected. She's a blarite but she's not disagreeable.
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Not in Morley and outwood?AndreaParma_82 said:Ed Balls was campaigning in Wakefield earlier today
they really are on the defensive. no suprise but still.0 -
She did?Peter_the_Punter said:
As you know Mark, she posted on this forum for quite some time. What did you make of her?MarqueeMark said:
I remember back in 2010 being told by locals that Yvette was really not liked in her constituency - it was only the colour of her rosette that got her in.....dyedwoolie said:
Put it this way. I think Yvette is nervous.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To whose benefitdyedwoolie said:Starting to feel the NE and Yorkshire will provide some jaw dropping moments tonight
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You'd think that about all of the LDs who survived the 2015 culling, but several are even more vulnerable than Clegg.TravelJunkie said:Sheffield Hallam is one of the best bets of the night at 4/7
Labour threw everything at him and did everything possible and they couldn't beat him why would he lose now.
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A few notes from Derby North. People at work seem a lot more engaged compared to GE2015 with the trend towards Labour but bare in mind some people will live in the county seats surrounding Derby.
There is one younger bloke (24) who is voting Tory and thinks Corbyn is an idiot. Make of that what you will.
Received plenty of leaflets through the post as you'd expecting in a marginal thinner than a rizla paper.
I expect Amanda Solloway to increase her majority to about 2k. The Labour candidate is a full a Corbyn fanboy and ex leader of the pretty unpopular City Council.
Myself, well I stuck with the Lib Dems dispite the fact that Tim is crap and I've no interest in a 2nd referendum.0 -
Labour's have got to be in some rural Con/Lib marginals, probably in the South West.TravelJunkie said:Pub Quiz Time.
Lost Deposits in the 2015 General Election
Conservative lost deposits 2015: 18/647 (£9,000)
Labour lost deposits 2015: 3/631 (£1,500)
UKIP lost deposits 2015: 80/624 (£40,000)
Liberal Democrat lost deposits 2015: 340/631 (£170,000)
Green Party lost deposits 2015: 442/573 (£221,000)
SNP lost deposits 2015: 0/59 (£0)
Plaid Cymru lost deposits 2015: 8/40 (£4,000).
Question - Name the 3 labour constituencies and 18 tory seats0 -
the campaign is over. The country comes together whatever the result.RobD said:
Just want to say this (and your others today) is a far better post than the partisan stuff we saw over the last few days.TravelJunkie said:
When I bet on horses, I never back the favourite, I always back horses light on trip or off the radar that going in quiet. That's where you get good odds.IanB2 said:
Predicting Tory gains in London and Labour ones up north is certainly a contrary approach.Dadge said:
Not many winners there.TravelJunkie said:Constituency bets
Sheffield Hallam - Lib Dem Hold 4/7. (3 figures bet)
Bets ranging from £20-£50
Gower - Labour gain 11/10
Ynys Mon - Tory Gain 7/1
York Central - Tory Gain 5/1
Tooting - Tory Gain 9/4
Hampstead/Kilburn - Tory Gain 2/1
Ealing Central/Acton - Tory gain 7/5
Wakefield - Labour hold 2/1
Morley & Outwood - Labour gain 5/2
Ipswich - Labour gain 9/1
Edinburgh North & Leith - Labour gain 4/1
I'm going to lose some but gain some I hope. 6 weeks till my P & O cruise so this will help the pot.
OK in the london seats the tories got over 22k votes in hampstead/ealing and I think that will happen again and I think there is value. Tooting doesn't have sadiq khan anymore and its more tory than people think.
Morley and Outwood - tory won with a very small tory vote. Definitely can be knocked over. Ipswich and Ynys Mon are outsiders but there is value because on the ground ben gummer has been campaigning solely in ipswich and local polls do have him down.
Wakefield I think Mary Creagh will be re-elected. She's a blarite but she's not disagreeable.0 -
Agreed, on both points :-).spudgfsh said:
When there was a 25 point lead it could have been argued that she could be in trouble (she only just won in 1983) but I doubt it'll happen now. If I was the local Tory I'd be putting on leaflets that she'd nominated JC in the first placeReprobatus said:
I live in Derby North. I would have thought Margaret Beckett would be as safe as houses in Derby South. If she loses, Labour really is in for a bad night.spudgfsh said:
I live in Derby South. I've had 3 labour leaflets and nothing else. take that as you will. Rumours in the local radio think it could be close but personally I doubt it.AndyJS said:
Are there any rumours about Derby South? I would have thought she's fairly safe.GeoffH said:I wonder what Margaret Beckett is thinking right now
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Hi Dan. I like the second bet...with no local election votes to count might be value. Problem could be increased turnout?Oman_Dan said:Evening all! Another lurker here.. stepping out of the shadows! Been following this page for about two years now. Must also give praise, as many other lurkers have before me, to Mike, TSE, et al for all of their riproaring tips and dialogue!
I've been studying Bill Hills 'Your Odds', and I've found a couple of (What I think to be) potential gems:
Conservatives to win over 340 seats, Labour Over 175 Seats, Greens Exactly 1 Seat, and UKIP No Seats - 6/5
First constituency to be counted before 22.45.00 - 5/2.
Would be interested to hear your thoughts, both for and against.0 -
My thinking behind the second is based from info on the Beeb website on Houghton & Sunderland South:paulyork64 said:
welcome dan, the first sounds fair. I have no clue about the second.Oman_Dan said:Evening all! Another lurker here.. stepping out of the shadows! Been following this page for about two years now. Must also give praise, as many other lurkers have before me, to Mike, TSE, et al for all of their riproaring tips and dialogue!
I've been studying Bill Hills 'Your Odds', and I've found a couple of (What I think to be) potential gems:
Conservatives to win over 340 seats, Labour Over 175 Seats, Greens Exactly 1 Seat, and UKIP No Seats - 6/5
First constituency to be counted before 22.45.00 - 5/2.
Would be interested to hear your thoughts, both for and against.
'Houghton and Sunderland South will hope to become the first constituency to declare its result tonight - for the seventh time in succession'.
2015: Declared 2248 BST
2010: Declared 2252 BST (As Sunderland South)
2005: 2243 BST (Two seconds faster than 2001)
2001: 2243 BST
Am I right in thinking that there'll be no local elections this time round to get in the way there?0 -
II would like to get my apologies in first. I'll be home about 10 and plan to get outside a bottle of wine sharpish. I may get a bit emotional
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SandraM said:
Apologies if already posted but Baxter, who was on Con majority of 72 this morning, now has majority of 66.
Is this technically known as the Herdson Effect?
0 -
Looks like it was Ross, Skye and Lochaber, West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine and Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk.Stark_Dawning said:
Labour's have got to be in some rural Con/Lib marginals, probably in the South West.TravelJunkie said:Pub Quiz Time.
Lost Deposits in the 2015 General Election
Conservative lost deposits 2015: 18/647 (£9,000)
Labour lost deposits 2015: 3/631 (£1,500)
UKIP lost deposits 2015: 80/624 (£40,000)
Liberal Democrat lost deposits 2015: 340/631 (£170,000)
Green Party lost deposits 2015: 442/573 (£221,000)
SNP lost deposits 2015: 0/59 (£0)
Plaid Cymru lost deposits 2015: 8/40 (£4,000).
Question - Name the 3 labour constituencies and 18 tory seats
Scotland, should have guessed.0 -
That looks like such a random list it has to be a wind-up.IanB2 said:
Predicting Tory gains in London and Labour ones up north is certainly a contrary approach.Dadge said:
Not many winners there.TravelJunkie said:Constituency bets
Sheffield Hallam - Lib Dem Hold 4/7. (3 figures bet)
Bets ranging from £20-£50
Gower - Labour gain 11/10
Ynys Mon - Tory Gain 7/1
York Central - Tory Gain 5/1
Tooting - Tory Gain 9/4
Hampstead/Kilburn - Tory Gain 2/1
Ealing Central/Acton - Tory gain 7/5
Wakefield - Labour hold 2/1
Morley & Outwood - Labour gain 5/2
Ipswich - Labour gain 9/1
Edinburgh North & Leith - Labour gain 4/1
I'm going to lose some but gain some I hope. 6 weeks till my P & O cruise so this will help the pot.
0 -
There is a case for voting Lib Dem in order to keep flying a flag for economic liberalism now May has turned to state intervention.Popside said:A few notes from Derby North. People at work seem a lot more engaged compared to GE2015 with the trend towards Labour but bare in mind some people will live in the county seats surrounding Derby.
There is one younger bloke (24) who is voting Tory and thinks Corbyn is an idiot. Make of that what you will.
Received plenty of leaflets through the post as you'd expecting in a marginal thinner than a rizla paper.
I expect Amanda Solloway to increase her majority to about 2k. The Labour candidate is a full a Corbyn fanboy and ex leader of the pretty unpopular City Council.
Myself, well I stuck with the Lib Dems dispite the fact that Tim is crap and I've no interest in a 2nd referendum.0 -
What do you mean by the traditional view?Chameleon said:
If the Tories get a majority above 125 then I'd argue that it reinforced the traditional view.BigRich said:
Early in the campaign I placed 100 bets each of £1 on lab seats in Leave areas or/big UKIP votes to squease. I now think your betting strategy was way better than mine!!!Scrapheap_as_was said:
Even if it is a Tory Maj so at least my bets come in on that - if the maj is forecast to be sub say 40 then he'll just bang on about how it's been a waste of time for TMay etc and a massive success for Corbynistas (which in part is true actually) ....BigRich said:
I don't think I can watch ITV now, the thought of Owen Jones gloating is going to be painful.Scrapheap_as_was said:Bugger - was going to watch the ITV coverage once we had DD and the first Bong as interested in Balls/Ozzie filling for circa 2 hours... but this is a real turn-off.... unless there's a big tory maj predicted!!
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872853742093316097
O, And for the record I don't think its going to be as big a win for the conservatives as most posters on hear, may be with Con 335 +/-20 seats, witch I now is quite a big range, but does include No Overall Majority!
I'd be consoling myself back on BBC whilst he does though thinking that outcome means Labour would be facing a definite 12 years out of power...
What this election has done is move the Octavian window (or whatever it is called) massively in the direction of socialism, state intervention in the economy and stateisum in general. and that is a very bad thing especially at the down of BREXIT.
May has already moved to economic socialism in a noticeable way, e.g. delaying balancing the budget by years, suggesting price controls of energy! these are things that the party credited EdM about 2 years ago. But implementing them now, it looks as if they where sensible or at least reasonable all the time and it only opposed for selfish and opportunistic reasoned. which implicitly gives the left credibility.
May might have thought that she was going to capture the 'middle ground' or whatever you term it. In practices she has given socialism and by extension Corbyn the one thing he needed Creditably, and IMO that more that anything is why the opinion pole lead has narrowed, and I am mad at her for it!
Then again if I am wrong and the Conservatives pick up a lot of seats then at least I will have won some money to drown my sorrows.0 -
I don't know if he also went to Morley. I know he was in Wakefield because Mary Creagh
posted a pic of them.nunu said:
Not in Morley and outwood?AndreaParma_82 said:Ed Balls was campaigning in Wakefield earlier today
they really are on the defensive. no suprise but still.0 -
Plato was Yvette?Casino_Royale said:
She did?Peter_the_Punter said:
As you know Mark, she posted on this forum for quite some time. What did you make of her?MarqueeMark said:
I remember back in 2010 being told by locals that Yvette was really not liked in her constituency - it was only the colour of her rosette that got her in.....dyedwoolie said:
Put it this way. I think Yvette is nervous.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To whose benefitdyedwoolie said:Starting to feel the NE and Yorkshire will provide some jaw dropping moments tonight
0 -
New thread....0
-
I was right about the 'rural' bit!kle4 said:
Looks like it was Ross, Skye and Lochaber, West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine and Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk.Stark_Dawning said:
Labour's have got to be in some rural Con/Lib marginals, probably in the South West.TravelJunkie said:Pub Quiz Time.
Lost Deposits in the 2015 General Election
Conservative lost deposits 2015: 18/647 (£9,000)
Labour lost deposits 2015: 3/631 (£1,500)
UKIP lost deposits 2015: 80/624 (£40,000)
Liberal Democrat lost deposits 2015: 340/631 (£170,000)
Green Party lost deposits 2015: 442/573 (£221,000)
SNP lost deposits 2015: 0/59 (£0)
Plaid Cymru lost deposits 2015: 8/40 (£4,000).
Question - Name the 3 labour constituencies and 18 tory seats
Scotland, should have guessed.0 -
Just starting my first drink, will be very emotional for the exit poll.Blue_rog said:II would like to get my apologies in first. I'll be home about 10 and plan to get outside a bottle of wine sharpish. I may get a bit emotional
Been and voted, Morecambe and Lunesdale, probably safe Con, but has been Labour in the past.0 -
I've just been trawling through those markets. The one I had a small nibble on was LDs < 7 seats at 12/1. Probably won't come off but I don't think it's 12/1 unlikely.Oman_Dan said:Evening all! Another lurker here.. stepping out of the shadows! Been following this page for about two years now. Must also give praise, as many other lurkers have before me, to Mike, TSE, et al for all of their riproaring tips and dialogue!
I've been studying Bill Hills 'Your Odds', and I've found a couple of (What I think to be) potential gems:
Conservatives to win over 340 seats, Labour Over 175 Seats, Greens Exactly 1 Seat, and UKIP No Seats - 6/5
First constituency to be counted before 22.45.00 - 5/2.
Would be interested to hear your thoughts, both for and against.0 -
@RoyalBlue Excellent point about the Brexit voters who voted for the first time in 20-25 years. I'm thinking my 102 Tory majority now is an underestimate from everything I'm hearing on the ground today. Going to grab a couple of hours sleep after I've had my tea, and then will be back here in the run up until 10pmRoyalBlue said:It's been a busy day for me, campaigning across 3 constituencies. Of the several anecdotes I could share, the most interesting was a man (probably mid-50s) asking me if one voted for an MP and a party separately. By his question, I knew he'd be voting Conservative.
The great untold story of this election is how the middle-aged to elderly who voted for the first time in June 2016 for Brexit will vote now. My gut says they are coming out to vote, and will give May her landslide.0 -
More anecdotal evidence to provide us a proper set of anecdata!
The general feeling around my Surrey office seems decidedly tepid on May. I think there is mostly agreement Corbyn would not be good but that no one really want to vote for May. Similar sounds made about the Lib Dems, Tim Farron is truly a turn off.
The only Corbyn support appears to come from the under 24 population.
My gut says this isn't actually a bad sign for the Conservatives yet as this is an area where the only route to a Labour victory is Diane Abbot performing the count. The long term worry for them has to be that they could loose these sort of heartlands if they make no real appeal to them much as Labour appears to be loosing decent chunks of what used to be it's core vote.0 -
Snowflake, allegedly. Several years before Plato.David_Evershed said:
Plato was Yvette?Casino_Royale said:
She did?Peter_the_Punter said:
As you know Mark, she posted on this forum for quite some time. What did you make of her?MarqueeMark said:
I remember back in 2010 being told by locals that Yvette was really not liked in her constituency - it was only the colour of her rosette that got her in.....dyedwoolie said:
Put it this way. I think Yvette is nervous.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To whose benefitdyedwoolie said:Starting to feel the NE and Yorkshire will provide some jaw dropping moments tonight
0 -
I support any attempt to get rid of Theresa May from within the tory party because this country can do better than her. That will never change.
I live in a great country that has produced some of the greatest figures in history and theresa may doesn't even come close. She's the worst tory leader in my lifetime and whether she wins or loses one week from now people will want her gone within the tory party.
The only thing I would say about Jeremy Corbyn is that he believes in something and he has given the left its heart and soul back that the new labour project took away (look at the results in 2001 compared to 1997).
Nigel Farage and Jeremy Corbyn have been good for British Democracy. Whether you agree or disagree with their views, they have made politics more interesting and made us as a people debate issues that affect everyday lives. May is just like blair, brown and cameron (they speak in platitudes and everything is about party discipline) they believe in nothing just sticking to a disciplined focus grouped programmed message. We can do better than this.
I would have voted tory had boris johnson been leader.0 -
Yes, I thought it was widely know.Casino_Royale said:
She did?Peter_the_Punter said:
As you know Mark, she posted on this forum for quite some time. What did you make of her?MarqueeMark said:
I remember back in 2010 being told by locals that Yvette was really not liked in her constituency - it was only the colour of her rosette that got her in.....dyedwoolie said:
Put it this way. I think Yvette is nervous.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To whose benefitdyedwoolie said:Starting to feel the NE and Yorkshire will provide some jaw dropping moments tonight
I won't mentioned the nom-de-plume in case she still wishes to retain her anonymity.0 -
I agree; I don't think Amanda Solloway is in any real danger, in spite of her wafer-thin majority. Chris Williamson is not the most appealing candidate.Popside said:A few notes from Derby North. People at work seem a lot more engaged compared to GE2015 with the trend towards Labour but bare in mind some people will live in the county seats surrounding Derby.
There is one younger bloke (24) who is voting Tory and thinks Corbyn is an idiot. Make of that what you will.
Received plenty of leaflets through the post as you'd expecting in a marginal thinner than a rizla paper.
I expect Amanda Solloway to increase her majority to about 2k. The Labour candidate is a full a Corbyn fanboy and ex leader of the pretty unpopular City Council.
Myself, well I stuck with the Lib Dems dispite the fact that Tim is crap and I've no interest in a 2nd referendum.
OT, may I congratulate you on your user name? COYR!0 -
NEW THREAD
0 -
looking at it in 2015 a little thoughReprobatus said:
Agreed, on both points :-).spudgfsh said:
When there was a 25 point lead it could have been argued that she could be in trouble (she only just won in 1983) but I doubt it'll happen now. If I was the local Tory I'd be putting on leaflets that she'd nominated JC in the first placeReprobatus said:
I live in Derby North. I would have thought Margaret Beckett would be as safe as houses in Derby South. If she loses, Labour really is in for a bad night.spudgfsh said:
I live in Derby South. I've had 3 labour leaflets and nothing else. take that as you will. Rumours in the local radio think it could be close but personally I doubt it.AndyJS said:
Are there any rumours about Derby South? I would have thought she's fairly safe.GeoffH said:I wonder what Margaret Beckett is thinking right now
Labour 20K
Tory 11.1K
UKIP 6.3K
LD 1.7K
Green 1.2K
If the UKIP collapse it big enough taking the tories to about 17K it doesn't take much of a Lab/Con swing for the Tories to get close. I still think it's not going to happen but it could be more 1983 (0.9% maj) than 2001 (32% maj)0 -
Sorry I don't know the answerStark_Dawning said:
Labour's have got to be in some rural Con/Lib marginals, probably in the South West.TravelJunkie said:Pub Quiz Time.
Lost Deposits in the 2015 General Election
Conservative lost deposits 2015: 18/647 (£9,000)
Labour lost deposits 2015: 3/631 (£1,500)
UKIP lost deposits 2015: 80/624 (£40,000)
Liberal Democrat lost deposits 2015: 340/631 (£170,000)
Green Party lost deposits 2015: 442/573 (£221,000)
SNP lost deposits 2015: 0/59 (£0)
Plaid Cymru lost deposits 2015: 8/40 (£4,000).
Question - Name the 3 labour constituencies and 18 tory seats
it would be good to know both labour and tories.
maidenhead and ne hampshire labour got 10-12% of the vote.0 -
Might be better off reviving the Liberal Party for that.David_Evershed said:
There is a case for voting Lib Dem in order to keep flying a flag for economic liberalism now May has turned to state intervention.Popside said:A few notes from Derby North. People at work seem a lot more engaged compared to GE2015 with the trend towards Labour but bare in mind some people will live in the county seats surrounding Derby.
There is one younger bloke (24) who is voting Tory and thinks Corbyn is an idiot. Make of that what you will.
Received plenty of leaflets through the post as you'd expecting in a marginal thinner than a rizla paper.
I expect Amanda Solloway to increase her majority to about 2k. The Labour candidate is a full a Corbyn fanboy and ex leader of the pretty unpopular City Council.
Myself, well I stuck with the Lib Dems dispite the fact that Tim is crap and I've no interest in a 2nd referendum.0 -
She melted away.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, I thought it was widely know.Casino_Royale said:
She did?Peter_the_Punter said:
As you know Mark, she posted on this forum for quite some time. What did you make of her?MarqueeMark said:
I remember back in 2010 being told by locals that Yvette was really not liked in her constituency - it was only the colour of her rosette that got her in.....dyedwoolie said:
Put it this way. I think Yvette is nervous.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To whose benefitdyedwoolie said:Starting to feel the NE and Yorkshire will provide some jaw dropping moments tonight
I won't mentioned the nom-de-plume in case she still wishes to retain her anonymity.0 -
Popside said:
A few notes from Derby North. People at work seem a lot more engaged compared to GE2015 with the trend towards Labour but bare in mind some people will live in the county seats surrounding Derby.
There is one younger bloke (24) who is voting Tory and thinks Corbyn is an idiot. Make of that what you will.
Received plenty of leaflets through the post as you'd expecting in a marginal thinner than a rizla paper.
I expect Amanda Solloway to increase her majority to about 2k. The Labour candidate is a full a Corbyn fanboy and ex leader of the pretty unpopular City Council.
Myself, well I stuck with the Lib Dems dispite the fact that Tim is crap and I've no interest in a 2nd referendum.
Don't get me started about Amanda Solloway and her husband. I would be delighted, and have a good dollop of Talisker tonight to see her lose.Popside said:A few notes from Derby North. People at work seem a lot more engaged compared to GE2015 with the trend towards Labour but bare in mind some people will live in the county seats surrounding Derby.
There is one younger bloke (24) who is voting Tory and thinks Corbyn is an idiot. Make of that what you will.
Received plenty of leaflets through the post as you'd expecting in a marginal thinner than a rizla paper.
I expect Amanda Solloway to increase her majority to about 2k. The Labour candidate is a full a Corbyn fanboy and ex leader of the pretty unpopular City Council.
Myself, well I stuck with the Lib Dems dispite the fact that Tim is crap and I've no interest in a 2nd referendum.0 -
Snowflake5? No way.alex. said:
Snowflake, allegedly. Several years before Plato.David_Evershed said:
Plato was Yvette?Casino_Royale said:
She did?Peter_the_Punter said:
As you know Mark, she posted on this forum for quite some time. What did you make of her?MarqueeMark said:
I remember back in 2010 being told by locals that Yvette was really not liked in her constituency - it was only the colour of her rosette that got her in.....dyedwoolie said:
Put it this way. I think Yvette is nervous.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To whose benefitdyedwoolie said:Starting to feel the NE and Yorkshire will provide some jaw dropping moments tonight
0 -
The first sounds reasonable to me too but WH's red tape defeated my attempt to open an a/c in early 2015. I haven't tried since.paulyork64 said:
welcome dan, the first sounds fair. I have no clue about the second.Oman_Dan said:Evening all! Another lurker here.. stepping out of the shadows! Been following this page for about two years now. Must also give praise, as many other lurkers have before me, to Mike, TSE, et al for all of their riproaring tips and dialogue!
I've been studying Bill Hills 'Your Odds', and I've found a couple of (What I think to be) potential gems:
Conservatives to win over 340 seats, Labour Over 175 Seats, Greens Exactly 1 Seat, and UKIP No Seats - 6/5
First constituency to be counted before 22.45.00 - 5/2.
Would be interested to hear your thoughts, both for and against.
I suppose if I ever win too much (?!) and others limit my bets I might have to pursue it, or go onto Betfair, which gave me the same problem as WH (2015).
45 mins. sounds fast. We don't necessarily seem any quicker at counting than we were in elections in the 1950s/60s (BBC coverage is on Youtube).0 -
18 Tory in Northern Ireland?TravelJunkie said:Pub Quiz Time.
Lost Deposits in the 2015 General Election
Conservative lost deposits 2015: 18/647 (£9,000)
Labour lost deposits 2015: 3/631 (£1,500)
UKIP lost deposits 2015: 80/624 (£40,000)
Liberal Democrat lost deposits 2015: 340/631 (£170,000)
Green Party lost deposits 2015: 442/573 (£221,000)
SNP lost deposits 2015: 0/59 (£0)
Plaid Cymru lost deposits 2015: 8/40 (£4,000).
Question - Name the 3 labour constituencies and 18 tory seats0 -
About as believable as Phil 'us blues' Roberts. Why do people make these claims?TravelJunkie said:I would have voted tory had boris johnson been leader.
0 -
Optimist!TravelJunkie said:
the campaign is over. The country comes together whatever the result.RobD said:
Just want to say this (and your others today) is a far better post than the partisan stuff we saw over the last few days.TravelJunkie said:
When I bet on horses, I never back the favourite, I always back horses light on trip or off the radar that going in quiet. That's where you get good odds.IanB2 said:
Predicting Tory gains in London and Labour ones up north is certainly a contrary approach.Dadge said:
Not many winners there.TravelJunkie said:Constituency bets
Sheffield Hallam - Lib Dem Hold 4/7. (3 figures bet)
Bets ranging from £20-£50
Gower - Labour gain 11/10
Ynys Mon - Tory Gain 7/1
York Central - Tory Gain 5/1
Tooting - Tory Gain 9/4
Hampstead/Kilburn - Tory Gain 2/1
Ealing Central/Acton - Tory gain 7/5
Wakefield - Labour hold 2/1
Morley & Outwood - Labour gain 5/2
Ipswich - Labour gain 9/1
Edinburgh North & Leith - Labour gain 4/1
I'm going to lose some but gain some I hope. 6 weeks till my P & O cruise so this will help the pot.
OK in the london seats the tories got over 22k votes in hampstead/ealing and I think that will happen again and I think there is value. Tooting doesn't have sadiq khan anymore and its more tory than people think.
Morley and Outwood - tory won with a very small tory vote. Definitely can be knocked over. Ipswich and Ynys Mon are outsiders but there is value because on the ground ben gummer has been campaigning solely in ipswich and local polls do have him down.
Wakefield I think Mary Creagh will be re-elected. She's a blarite but she's not disagreeable.0 -
David_Evershed said:
There is a case for voting Lib Dem in order to keep flying a flag for economic liberalism now May has turned to state intervention.Popside said:A few notes from Derby North. People at work seem a lot more engaged compared to GE2015 with the trend towards Labour but bare in mind some people will live in the county seats surrounding Derby.
There is one younger bloke (24) who is voting Tory and thinks Corbyn is an idiot. Make of that what you will.
Received plenty of leaflets through the post as you'd expecting in a marginal thinner than a rizla paper.
I expect Amanda Solloway to increase her majority to about 2k. The Labour candidate is a full a Corbyn fanboy and ex leader of the pretty unpopular City Council.
Myself, well I stuck with the Lib Dems dispite the fact that Tim is crap and I've no interest in a 2nd referendum.
When was that, that'd be exceptional value if it was available now.chrisb said:
I've just been trawling through those markets. The one I had a small nibble on was LDs < 7 seats at 12/1. Probably won't come off but I don't think it's 12/1 unlikely.Oman_Dan said:Evening all! Another lurker here.. stepping out of the shadows! Been following this page for about two years now. Must also give praise, as many other lurkers have before me, to Mike, TSE, et al for all of their riproaring tips and dialogue!
I've been studying Bill Hills 'Your Odds', and I've found a couple of (What I think to be) potential gems:
Conservatives to win over 340 seats, Labour Over 175 Seats, Greens Exactly 1 Seat, and UKIP No Seats - 6/5
First constituency to be counted before 22.45.00 - 5/2.
Would be interested to hear your thoughts, both for and against.
0 -
Look OK to me both Hills and Skybet have these yourodds/requestabet facility you just tweet them the odds you want and they get back to you.paulyork64 said:
welcome dan, the first sounds fair. I have no clue about the second.Oman_Dan said:Evening all! Another lurker here.. stepping out of the shadows! Been following this page for about two years now. Must also give praise, as many other lurkers have before me, to Mike, TSE, et al for all of their riproaring tips and dialogue!
I've been studying Bill Hills 'Your Odds', and I've found a couple of (What I think to be) potential gems:
Conservatives to win over 340 seats, Labour Over 175 Seats, Greens Exactly 1 Seat, and UKIP No Seats - 6/5
First constituency to be counted before 22.45.00 - 5/2.
Would be interested to hear your thoughts, both for and against.
Couple I like with Hills turnout 65-70 Lab 226-250 and Con 226-250 22/1 Lab and Con seat totals are related so I make it a 12/1 shot.
Also Lib Dems under 7 seats 12/1 more like 5/1 for me good luck0 -
Yes it's still available at the same odds. See here:Chameleon said:David_Evershed said:
There is a case for voting Lib Dem in order to keep flying a flag for economic liberalism now May has turned to state intervention.Popside said:A few notes from Derby North. People at work seem a lot more engaged compared to GE2015 with the trend towards Labour but bare in mind some people will live in the county seats surrounding Derby.
There is one younger bloke (24) who is voting Tory and thinks Corbyn is an idiot. Make of that what you will.
Received plenty of leaflets through the post as you'd expecting in a marginal thinner than a rizla paper.
I expect Amanda Solloway to increase her majority to about 2k. The Labour candidate is a full a Corbyn fanboy and ex leader of the pretty unpopular City Council.
Myself, well I stuck with the Lib Dems dispite the fact that Tim is crap and I've no interest in a 2nd referendum.
When was that, that'd be exceptional value if it was available now.chrisb said:
I've just been trawling through those markets. The one I had a small nibble on was LDs < 7 seats at 12/1. Probably won't come off but I don't think it's 12/1 unlikely.Oman_Dan said:Evening all! Another lurker here.. stepping out of the shadows! Been following this page for about two years now. Must also give praise, as many other lurkers have before me, to Mike, TSE, et al for all of their riproaring tips and dialogue!
I've been studying Bill Hills 'Your Odds', and I've found a couple of (What I think to be) potential gems:
Conservatives to win over 340 seats, Labour Over 175 Seats, Greens Exactly 1 Seat, and UKIP No Seats - 6/5
First constituency to be counted before 22.45.00 - 5/2.
Would be interested to hear your thoughts, both for and against.
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/9702801/#YourOdds+-+6+1+to+14+1.html
0 -
IIRC He's in a posh hotel in Rome....Beverley_C said:
He is "frit"GIN1138 said:Beverley_C said:
Where is SeanT? Hiding behind the sofa?
Chatting to pretty girls with clipboards outside the polling station on Primrose?
He will come back after all the dust settles. Probably.
0 -
They lost the deposit in Walton as well I think ?Charles said:
18 Tory in Northern Ireland?TravelJunkie said:Pub Quiz Time.
Lost Deposits in the 2015 General Election
Conservative lost deposits 2015: 18/647 (£9,000)
Labour lost deposits 2015: 3/631 (£1,500)
UKIP lost deposits 2015: 80/624 (£40,000)
Liberal Democrat lost deposits 2015: 340/631 (£170,000)
Green Party lost deposits 2015: 442/573 (£221,000)
SNP lost deposits 2015: 0/59 (£0)
Plaid Cymru lost deposits 2015: 8/40 (£4,000).
Question - Name the 3 labour constituencies and 18 tory seats0 -
If this exit poll is true I've worked out what has happened
UKIP voters polled have lied about who they were going to vote for orrrrr, to put it another way
Shy UKIP-to-Lab switchers.0 -
Amber Rudd in danger???0
-
Huge rise in turnout. Huge rise0
