Bugger - was going to watch the ITV coverage once we had DD and the first Bong as interested in Balls/Ozzie filling for circa 2 hours... but this is a real turn-off.... unless there's a big tory maj predicted!!
What's really silly is that Ladbrokes max politics payout is apparently 250k, so this punter basically got a 249/1 price for something that's about as likely as Elvis for next President.
Shadsy said he would have paid out the £1m.
(yes he said "would've" - WHAT DOES HE KNOW????)
As the exclusion is almost certainly unenforceable, I imagine he would pay it out. It would otherwise be, see you in court.
I thought gambling debts were unenforceable.
Not as such but given the success of Coral in the courts on refusing to pay out at similar odds on the bet "Rangers to be Relegated" (and the contortions they went through to prove that the plain English meaning of the word "Relegated" did not apply to this instance of "a technical adjustment of the club's status from a higher division to a lower division") included their defence claim that "We'd never have offered those odds if we thought there was any chance of it actually happening", one presumes the kind of event that would see the bet win would also be treated as an opportunity to palp the bet, particularly given Coral and Ladbrokes are now part of the same stable.
Rangers weren't relegated. They were liquidated. They ceased to exist.
Seems like a sound decision by the courts - the new Rangers are a legally distinct entity, aren't they? Even in plain English I wouldn't say they were relegated.
The fact that the Old bankrupt rangers had a vote on whether SevCo could get entry to the Premiership and that the players contracts were moved under TUPE is a bit of a hint they are two separate clubs.
No, it is a hint that there were two separate legal entities containing the same football club.
First post on here for a while after just lurking for a few years.
I will miss reading the Facebook/twitter postings from many, especially those supporting Corbyn, once the election is finished. I suppose I should be worried about the appalling level of public debate, but I've chosen to just laugh at it for now.
Anyway, a story involving my son, who has just turned 12. He and some friends recently fell out with another kid at school, after they chose to go to a local scooter park rather than a skateboard one. The other kid feels so strongly about the scooter/skateboard debate that he will have nothing to do with anyone who has chosen differently to them.
Anyway, it came as no surprise to me to hear that this same kid, whose parents are extremely vocal Corbyn supporters, has spent this week taking that argument to the classroom. Anyone who doesn't agree with his opinion of the great man is apparently being treated like scooter loving lowlife.
I suppose he has an excuse. He is only 12 years old. I'm not sure what excuse the facebook/twitter warriors have.
First post after years lurking. Voted a little earlier in Englands most marginal. Pretty busy considering it was lashing it down. FWIW my prediction all through the campaign has been Can maj 50-70.
Bugger - was going to watch the ITV coverage once we had DD and the first Bong as interested in Balls/Ozzie filling for circa 2 hours... but this is a real turn-off.... unless there's a big tory maj predicted!!
Bugger - was going to watch the ITV coverage once we had DD and the first Bong as interested in Balls/Ozzie filling for circa 2 hours... but this is a real turn-off.... unless there's a big tory maj predicted!!
Owen Jones is a prime candidate for a hilarious anti-Corbyn meltdown though, he was conspicuously silent about the 'coup' and has been canvassing for successors (Lisa Nandy iirc). It'll all come gushing out if he's tired and on telly.
Apart from Hammond,the other invisible man has been Liam Fox in the Tory campaign.He did manage to visit a homicidal madman in Duterte to express our "shared values".Is he for the chop too?
First post after years lurking. Voted a little earlier in Englands most marginal. Pretty busy considering it was lashing it down. FWIW my prediction all through the campaign has been Can maj 50-70.
I thought I would share a few observations about the youth vote and how it is widely assumed that a rise in 18-24 or even 25-35 year olds voting would meaning a whopping number of new votes for Labour - but is there a natural ceiling to this vote? What we are talking about with the youth vote that votes is the largely middle class and university educated, there are many others who don't fall into this category and hold different views on things
I noticed this during the EU vote - which some in Labour circles are pointing to as a benchmark for young voters (60-70%) - when people I know in that age group who had never shown an interest in voting before going for leave mainly because of immigration and national identity. They couldn't care less about university fees because they had no intention of going and aren't bothered about nationalisation. That's not to say they like May, but the idea that we'll see turnout rocketing to 70% for the youth might just miss this out.
Has anyone heard that the Lib Dems are in a lot of trouble. Chap who told me that Norman Baker and Stephen Lloyd were losing about this time of day in 2015 reckons they're praying for 5 MPs. (He worked for Baker). Farron losing, Clegg ok. Don't know how true it is.
There'll be a lot of churn. Losing Southport, C&W, maybe N Norfolk. Farron scraping home. But gaining a couple in Scotland and one or two In London. So maybe about the same number of MPs at the end.
Bugger - was going to watch the ITV coverage once we had DD and the first Bong as interested in Balls/Ozzie filling for circa 2 hours... but this is a real turn-off.... unless there's a big tory maj predicted!!
On the drive home this afternoon I saw a banner hanging from a bridge over the North Circular. It read 'Drive under bridge if you are voting Labour!'
Their supporters don't often manage to combine humour with decent execution so I allowed myself a smile.
I live in a very, very safe Tory seat but there was a bit of defiance on shows near the polling station when I popped in at 11am. Just down the road, the Labour candidate's poster was pinned up on the Parish noticeboard next to a massive, homemade poster saying 'STRONG AND STABLE MY ARSE'. Was perplexed by the lack of the comma but some marks for effort. I know the Lib Dem candidate here and he's a good guy but I think he's gone from 2nd to 3rd due to Labour's good national campaign.
It's been a busy day for me, campaigning across 3 constituencies. Of the several anecdotes I could share, the most interesting was a man (probably mid-50s) asking me if one voted for an MP and a party separately. By his question, I knew he'd be voting Conservative.
The great untold story of this election is how the middle-aged to elderly who voted for the first time in June 2016 for Brexit will vote now. My gut says they are coming out to vote, and will give May her landslide.
You might be onto something there. I ran into an old guy this morning who clocked the polling station and said something like 'oh it's today, I must go and get my card'. I inferred that he didn't follow the news closely and didn't vote often if he didn't know he could do so without his polling card. I very much doubt he was a Corbynista.
First post after years lurking. Voted a little earlier in Englands most marginal. Pretty busy considering it was lashing it down. FWIW my prediction all through the campaign has been Can maj 50-70.
What's really silly is that Ladbrokes max politics payout is apparently 250k, so this punter basically got a 249/1 price for something that's about as likely as Elvis for next President.
Shadsy said he would have paid out the £1m.
(yes he said "would've" - WHAT DOES HE KNOW????)
As the exclusion is almost certainly unenforceable, I imagine he would pay it out. It would otherwise be, see you in court.
I thought gambling debts were unenforceable.
Not as such but given the success of Coral in the courts on refusing to pay out at similar odds on the bet "Rangers to be Relegated" (and the contortions they went through to prove that the plain English meaning of the word "Relegated" did not apply to this instance of "a technical adjustment of the club's status from a higher division to a lower division") included their defence claim that "We'd never have offered those odds if we thought there was any chance of it actually happening", one presumes the kind of event that would see the bet win would also be treated as an opportunity to palp the bet, particularly given Coral and Ladbrokes are now part of the same stable.
Rangers weren't relegated. They were liquidated. They ceased to exist.
Seems like a sound decision by the courts - the new Rangers are a legally distinct entity, aren't they? Even in plain English I wouldn't say they were relegated.
Wikipedia (fount of all knowledge) still maintains they were formed 145 years ago.
And yet 'With a new corporate identity, the club gained admittance to the fourth tier of Scottish league football in time for the start of the following season, and were promoted three times in four years to return to the top flight'
'Gained admittance to', not 'were relegated to'.
I'm sorry but Rangers are quite clearly not a new club. To suggest otherwise is just being sad and pedantic.
As a Newcastle United fan, I have much sympathy for fans having to endure bad owners.
2017 election feels like a 1992/2005 election to me; the tories will be in opposition in 2022.
Not if she gets her landslide or even a solid majority. Instances of a party going from opposing a majority to governing with their own majority are more or less nil in the last 50 years.
Major's government was a minority by 1997. Callaghan's likewise in 1979.
Also bear in mind:
- If May gets decent majority it pretty much guarantees the boundary changes (which still report in Sept 2018) will get through Parliament. Even if Lords block the Statutory Instrument there will be over 3 years to force them through - by Primary legislation if necessary.
- Con will bring in voter ID requirement for next GE.
Both the above will give Con a significant advantage compared to this time.
Bugger - was going to watch the ITV coverage once we had DD and the first Bong as interested in Balls/Ozzie filling for circa 2 hours... but this is a real turn-off.... unless there's a big tory maj predicted!!
I don't think I can watch ITV now, the thought of Owen Jones gloating is going to be painful.
O, And for the record I don't think its going to be as big a win for the conservatives as most posters on hear, may be with Con 335 +/-20 seats, witch I now is quite a big range, but does include No Overall Majority!
What I find rather amusing with the younger generation and their enthusiasm for Corbyn, is in the long run it will be they who will ultimately pay for the increased spending to fund all his plans when they are in their 30's with increased taxation etc to get debt back down. Will probably pay more than their student loans would have cost them. The idealism of youth!
Constituency bets Sheffield Hallam - Lib Dem Hold 4/7. (3 figures bet)
Bets ranging from £20-£50 Gower - Labour gain 11/10 Ynys Mon - Tory Gain 7/1 York Central - Tory Gain 5/1 Tooting - Tory Gain 9/4 Hampstead/Kilburn - Tory Gain 2/1 Ealing Central/Acton - Tory gain 7/5 Wakefield - Labour hold 2/1 Morley & Outwood - Labour gain 5/2 Ipswich - Labour gain 9/1 Edinburgh North & Leith - Labour gain 4/1
I'm going to lose some but gain some I hope. 6 weeks till my P & O cruise so this will help the pot.
First post on here for a while after just lurking for a few years.
I will miss reading the Facebook/twitter postings from many, especially those supporting Corbyn, once the election is finished. I suppose I should be worried about the appalling level of public debate, but I've chosen to just laugh at it for now.
Anyway, a story involving my son, who has just turned 12. He and some friends recently fell out with another kid at school, after they chose to go to a local scooter park rather than a skateboard one. The other kid feels so strongly about the scooter/skateboard debate that he will have nothing to do with anyone who has chosen differently to them.
Anyway, it came as no surprise to me to hear that this same kid, whose parents are extremely vocal Corbyn supporters, has spent this week taking that argument to the classroom. Anyone who doesn't agree with his opinion of the great man is apparently being treated like scooter loving lowlife.
I suppose he has an excuse. He is only 12 years old. I'm not sure what excuse the facebook/twitter warriors have.
A female friend of mine posted a very reasoned and balanced post an hour ago on Facebook, think the style of David Herdson, saying she was filtering out aggressive political rants from her feed today, as she'd received far too many.
Low and behold, a Corbynite crawled out of the woodwork to accuse her of being a bad mother, not caring about those at foodbanks, and generally denigrating her.
She politely responded to them, and made them look rather silly.
Has anyone heard that the Lib Dems are in a lot of trouble. Chap who told me that Norman Baker and Stephen Lloyd were losing about this time of day in 2015 reckons they're praying for 5 MPs. (He worked for Baker). Farron losing, Clegg ok. Don't know how true it is.
There were in a tough position even before any news filtering through today came in.
Well, as has been noted before if the polls are right, then with Lab and Con both up on last time and the LDs static, several of the ones they held last time, most of them even, could be under threat, especially ones where UKIP are not standing, if in those seats most UKIP voters go Tory. It's a question of whether they can cluster their remaining support into those target seats to save them, and even pick up some gains, to offset what will probably be several losses at least (models seem to be ranging from 2-15).
Farron was expected to be safe, he has the only decent sized majority, but who knows. Clegg is in for a fight, but the Mail want Tories to vote for him and Mark Senior reckons the Lab campaign has not been as good and he should be safe. Williams' biggest opponent last time was PC, and some are having that one as a four way marginal, who knows what will happen but most models seem to think he is going to make it. Brake is widely predicted to lose in Carshalton, but some models have him holding on. Mulholland is vulnerable to Labour surges apparently, but I have no idea. Pugh isn't standing in Southport and most seem to think that seat is vulnerable. Lamb has been written off as a loss in many, but not all, models, a bit like Brake. Olney does not seem expected to win again in Richmond, but if the LDs are outperforming in places, London might be the place? Carmichael should be safe, Orkney and Shetland still gave big LD votes in 2016.
Some good chances of a few wins in Scotland, with some shots in London (Twickenham etc) and a sprinkling of other targets.
I think 4-10 is their range, in the end I went for 8.
Daniel Zeichner for Cambridge.Lab hold.I'm on at 4-1.Cambridge will remain a socialist city.
Apart from Hammond,the other invisible man has been Liam Fox in the Tory campaign.He did manage to visit a homicidal madman in Duterte to express our "shared values".Is he for the chop too?
Anyone not voted yet? Voting with the wife - she and voted Tory since 1997 and she's a conservative party member. She doesn't listen to one word I say.
I always vote at about 9pm. Makes it feel more exciting for some reason (!). And I haven't decided who to vote for yet, although I've got it down to two candidates. Doesn't matter much since I live in a very safe seat.
Got 2 bottles of malbec + 2 bottles of prosecco. Nachos with multiple options of dips. Going to make steak for around 9pm.
I'm happy with the result either way. I've back the conservatives to win either 375-400;400-425 seats.
Whatever happens tonight; Theresa Mays goose is cooked. 2017 election feels like a 1992/2005 election to me; the tories will be in opposition in 2022. there voting against corbyn not for may and that was what killed major and blair.
What I find rather amusing with the younger generation and their enthusiasm for Corbyn, is in the long run it will be they who will ultimately pay for the increased spending to fund all his plans when they are in their 30's with increased taxation etc to get debt back down. Will probably pay more than their student loans would have cost them. The idealism of youth!
Well they are currently paying for our pensions, the deficit and Brexit, so what's the prob?
I did my own voodoo poll poll today. Went shopping and said to myself whatever it costs that will be the seats gained by the Tories. It came to £37 so a majority of 74. I'm sure it was just as nuanced as survation!
On the drive home this afternoon I saw a banner hanging from a bridge over the North Circular. It read 'Drive under bridge if you are voting Labour!'
Their supporters don't often manage to combine humour with decent execution so I allowed myself a smile.
That traffic had not come to a complete standstill might be a portent ... ?
Looking for prime ministerial tipples for tonight - all I can come up with are Earl Grey or Thatchers ale. Neither particularly inviting.
Maybe a bottle of Heath's favourite Talisker after all - unless there are better suggestions ?
This isn't exactly something you can nip out for, but:
"Dr. Brown's is a brand of soft drink made by J & R Bottling. It is popular in the New York City region and South Florida, but it can also be found in Jewish delicatessens and upscale supermarkets around the United States. "
Thanks all for the welcome. I've tomorrow booked off, pulliing an all-nighter, in anticipation of a comfortable Tory win and another 4/5* years of Tory rule. Ugh, thems the breaks I suppose.
Bugger - was going to watch the ITV coverage once we had DD and the first Bong as interested in Balls/Ozzie filling for circa 2 hours... but this is a real turn-off.... unless there's a big tory maj predicted!!
Owen Jones is a prime candidate for a hilarious anti-Corbyn meltdown though, he was conspicuously silent about the 'coup' and has been canvassing for successors (Lisa Nandy iirc). It'll all come gushing out if he's tired and on telly.
It's been a busy day for me, campaigning across 3 constituencies. Of the several anecdotes I could share, the most interesting was a man (probably mid-50s) asking me if one voted for an MP and a party separately. By his question, I knew he'd be voting Conservative.
The great untold story of this election is how the middle-aged to elderly who voted for the first time in June 2016 for Brexit will vote now. My gut says they are coming out to vote, and will give May her landslide.
Although it's very canny of May to piggy-back on Brexit like this, I do hope it comes back to haunt her eventually.
What I find rather amusing with the younger generation and their enthusiasm for Corbyn, is in the long run it will be they who will ultimately pay for the increased spending to fund all his plans when they are in their 30's with increased taxation etc to get debt back down. Will probably pay more than their student loans would have cost them. The idealism of youth!
Well they are currently paying for our pensions, the deficit and Brexit, so what's the prob?
Not if they are at Uni, haven't paid a penny yet to anything!
Big difference now between Con Maj and May to be PM.
Con Maj 1.23 May to be PM 1.15
Makes sense - implication is if Con short it'll be close - so significant chance of 313 to 326 range which guarantees May to be PM (at least in short term). And at least some chance she could remain PM below 313.
Also note Betfair don't count Speaker as Con so Con Maj of 2 (ie 326 inc Speaker) will be NOM for Betfair purposes.
Has anyone heard that the Lib Dems are in a lot of trouble. Chap who told me that Norman Baker and Stephen Lloyd were losing about this time of day in 2015 reckons they're praying for 5 MPs. (He worked for Baker). Farron losing, Clegg ok. Don't know how true it is.
There were in a tough position even before any news filtering through today came in.
Well, as has been noted before if the polls are right, then with Lab and Con both up on last time and the LDs static, several of the ones they held last time, most of them even, could be under threat, especially ones where UKIP are not standing, if in those seats most UKIP voters go Tory. It's a question of whether they can cluster their remaining support into those target seats to save them, and even pick up some gains, to offset what will probably be several losses at least (models seem to be ranging from 2-15).
Farron was expected to be safe, he has the only decent sized majority, but who knows. Clegg is in for a fight, but the Mail want Tories to vote for him and Mark Senior reckons the Lab campaign has not been as good and he should be safe. Williams' biggest opponent last time was PC, and some are having that one as a four way marginal, who knows what will happen but most models seem to think he is going to make it. Brake is widely predicted to lose in Carshalton, but some models have him holding on. Mulholland is vulnerable to Labour surges apparently, but I have no idea. Pugh isn't standing in Southport and most seem to think that seat is vulnerable. Lamb has been written off as a loss in many, but not all, models, a bit like Brake. Olney does not seem expected to win again in Richmond, but if the LDs are outperforming in places, London might be the place? Carmichael should be safe, Orkney and Shetland still gave big LD votes in 2016.
Some good chances of a few wins in Scotland, with some shots in London (Twickenham etc) and a sprinkling of other targets.
I think 4-10 is their range, in the end I went for 8.
Daniel Zeichner for Cambridge.Lab hold.I'm on at 4-1.Cambridge will remain a socialist city.
It's been a busy day for me, campaigning across 3 constituencies. Of the several anecdotes I could share, the most interesting was a man (probably mid-50s) asking me if one voted for an MP and a party separately. By his question, I knew he'd be voting Conservative.
The great untold story of this election is how the middle-aged to elderly who voted for the first time in June 2016 for Brexit will vote now. My gut says they are coming out to vote, and will give May her landslide.
Although it's very canny of May to piggy-back on Brexit like this, I do hope it comes back to haunt her eventually.
What I find rather amusing with the younger generation and their enthusiasm for Corbyn, is in the long run it will be they who will ultimately pay for the increased spending to fund all his plans when they are in their 30's with increased taxation etc to get debt back down. Will probably pay more than their student loans would have cost them. The idealism of youth!
Well they are currently paying for our pensions, the deficit and Brexit, so what's the prob?
Constituency bets Sheffield Hallam - Lib Dem Hold 4/7. (3 figures bet)
Bets ranging from £20-£50 Gower - Labour gain 11/10 Ynys Mon - Tory Gain 7/1 York Central - Tory Gain 5/1 Tooting - Tory Gain 9/4 Hampstead/Kilburn - Tory Gain 2/1 Ealing Central/Acton - Tory gain 7/5 Wakefield - Labour hold 2/1 Morley & Outwood - Labour gain 5/2 Ipswich - Labour gain 9/1 Edinburgh North & Leith - Labour gain 4/1
I'm going to lose some but gain some I hope. 6 weeks till my P & O cruise so this will help the pot.
It's been a busy day for me, campaigning across 3 constituencies. Of the several anecdotes I could share, the most interesting was a man (probably mid-50s) asking me if one voted for an MP and a party separately. By his question, I knew he'd be voting Conservative.
The great untold story of this election is how the middle-aged to elderly who voted for the first time in June 2016 for Brexit will vote now. My gut says they are coming out to vote, and will give May her landslide.
Although it's very canny of May to piggy-back on Brexit like this, I do hope it comes back to haunt her eventually.
Around 2:30 AM?
Her concession speech is likely to be a little later on...
Starting to feel the NE and Yorkshire will provide some jaw dropping moments tonight
Why?
Comments about lack of ground troops in the north, lifelong labourites turning out against Corbyn and the mood music in the background. I may be very wrong but I'm expecting seat markets to explode at about 9 I think the pollsters haven't modelled Brexit properly into this.
On the drive home this afternoon I saw a banner hanging from a bridge over the North Circular. It read 'Drive under bridge if you are voting Labour!'
Their supporters don't often manage to combine humour with decent execution so I allowed myself a smile.
I live in a very, very safe Tory seat but there was a bit of defiance on shows near the polling station when I popped in at 11am. Just down the road, the Labour candidate's poster was pinned up on the Parish noticeboard next to a massive, homemade poster saying 'STRONG AND STABLE MY ARSE'. Was perplexed by the lack of the comma but some marks for effort. I know the Lib Dem candidate here and he's a good guy but I think he's gone from 2nd to 3rd due to Labour's good national campaign.
It's good old fashioned campaigning in my book, and long may it continue. Can't stand the abuse and intolerance, wherever it comes from.
Starting to feel the NE and Yorkshire will provide some jaw dropping moments tonight
To whose benefit
Put it this way. I think Yvette is nervous.
I remember back in 2010 being told by locals that Yvette was really not liked in her constituency - it was only the colour of her rosette that got her in.....
Bugger - was going to watch the ITV coverage once we had DD and the first Bong as interested in Balls/Ozzie filling for circa 2 hours... but this is a real turn-off.... unless there's a big tory maj predicted!!
I don't think I can watch ITV now, the thought of Owen Jones gloating is going to be painful.
O, And for the record I don't think its going to be as big a win for the conservatives as most posters on hear, may be with Con 335 +/-20 seats, witch I now is quite a big range, but does include No Overall Majority!
Even if it is a Tory Maj so at least my bets come in on that - if the maj is forecast to be sub say 40 then he'll just bang on about how it's been a waste of time for TMay etc and a massive success for Corbynistas (which in part is true actually) ....
I'd be consoling myself back on BBC whilst he does though thinking that outcome means Labour would be facing a definite 12 years out of power...
On the drive home this afternoon I saw a banner hanging from a bridge over the North Circular. It read 'Drive under bridge if you are voting Labour!'
Their supporters don't often manage to combine humour with decent execution so I allowed myself a smile.
That traffic had not come to a complete standstill might be a portent ... ?
Looking for prime ministerial tipples for tonight - all I can come up with are Earl Grey or Thatchers ale. Neither particularly inviting.
Maybe a bottle of Heath's favourite Talisker after all - unless there are better suggestions ?
This isn't exactly something you can nip out for, but:
"Dr. Brown's is a brand of soft drink made by J & R Bottling. It is popular in the New York City region and South Florida, but it can also be found in Jewish delicatessens and upscale supermarkets around the United States. "
Closer to home, Newcastle Brown?
Mr Brown is a popular iced coffee in a can in Taiwan. V refreshing on a hot day. Goes well with Gordon's Gin?
2017 election feels like a 1992/2005 election to me; the tories will be in opposition in 2022.
Not if she gets her landslide or even a solid majority. Instances of a party going from opposing a majority to governing with their own majority are more or less nil in the last 50 years.
Major's government was a minority by 1997. Callaghan's likewise in 1979.
Theresa May is in the same state as blair was in 2005 and major in 1992.
May could get a 100 plus majority her time as PM is gone and after seeing her face for 5 years people will have had enough.
The economy is not good at the moment. Prices are going up and british companies are ripe for takeovers from foreign companies. American companies have admitted for the past 10 years with all this disruption going on, that they have to do lots of M&A to keep shareholders happy to maintain market position. 20% of the worlds service industry will soon all be done in India. Finance and Big Pharma jobs will move to Europe. It's not all doom and gloom but everyone in this country needs a pay rise. I make £63k; my wife £36k and we don't feel that comfortable. If I did the same job in America, Australia, Middle East I would be on double minimum.
We do live in a low wage economy. I can't believe for example that an MP gets around £60k. They should be on much more but there should be fewer mps and the house lords should be replaced with a senate like in the states.
Starting to feel the NE and Yorkshire will provide some jaw dropping moments tonight
To whose benefit
Put it this way. I think Yvette is nervous.
I remember back in 2010 being told by locals that Yvette was really not liked in her constituency - it was only the colour of her rosette that got her in.....
Bugger - was going to watch the ITV coverage once we had DD and the first Bong as interested in Balls/Ozzie filling for circa 2 hours... but this is a real turn-off.... unless there's a big tory maj predicted!!
Owen Jones is a prime candidate for a hilarious anti-Corbyn meltdown though, he was conspicuously silent about the 'coup' and has been canvassing for successors (Lisa Nandy iirc). It'll all come gushing out if he's tired and on telly.
Not to mention emotional.
If there was a tory landslide he would no doubt have a meltdown on air.
Bugger - was going to watch the ITV coverage once we had DD and the first Bong as interested in Balls/Ozzie filling for circa 2 hours... but this is a real turn-off.... unless there's a big tory maj predicted!!
Owen Jones is a prime candidate for a hilarious anti-Corbyn meltdown though, he was conspicuously silent about the 'coup' and has been canvassing for successors (Lisa Nandy iirc). It'll all come gushing out if he's tired and on telly.
Not to mention emotional.
If there was a tory landslide he would no doubt have a meltdown on air.
If it is Tory meltdown it would be better still. Here's hoping!
A few anecdotes, now I've got round to resetting my password and can post again.
I live in an extremely safe Labour Seat (Barnsley East). You honestly wouldn't know there was an election going on other than a couple of Labour leaflets (one hand delivered and one by post). I have barely even spoken to anyone about the election, and there seems to be little interest (most people know I've been involved in politics). The only discussion I have had about it was with some family members (in their 70's) who have always voted Labour and this year voted Tory for the first time. I believe mainly because of Brexit.
From general conversation I would say that Corbyn is extremely unpopular round here. Labour will still obviously win easily though.
I am in London today, and on a busy tube journey I did notice lots of what looked like Labour supporting facebook/twitter pages being viewed.
In 2010 I was heavily involved in the Tory campaign in Penistone and Stocksbridge, which was targeted that election. I haven't been involved in the party for a few years now, so don't really have any particular inside knowledge there. I notice that May visited the constituency last week, and I imagine from that that it is being worked again. I would treat the 2015 result there with a pinch of salt, as they didn't do anything there in that election as far as I know. There was also a big UKIP vote in 2015 and the sitting MP was a remainer who I believe abstained in the Article 50 vote. I thought it was a likely gain if the polls at the start of the campaign proved to be correct. It looks much closer there now and I wouldn't want to call it either way. It certainly wouldn't surprise me to see that go Tory (and much more likely than Other Valley or Don Valley in my opinion).
I've given up trying to predict election results, after Brexit and Trump, but my gut feeling is about a 60 seat majority, although I will be waiting nervously for the exit poll, and a larger majority wouldn't surprise me either.
I'll go for 8 Lib Dems. I'm pretty confident that Clegg will win in Hallam.
Starting to feel the NE and Yorkshire will provide some jaw dropping moments tonight
To whose benefit
Put it this way. I think Yvette is nervous.
I remember back in 2010 being told by locals that Yvette was really not liked in her constituency - it was only the colour of her rosette that got her in.....
As you know Mark, she posted on this forum for quite some time. What did you make of her?
Good question, I was assuming it was for GB but maybe it's UK. I'll ask Betfair on Twitter.
Answer from Betfair: they're for the UK as a whole including NI.
LD vote will be lower than last time.
It would almost be impossible for the LD vote to be any lower in a lot constituencies, for example in some Glasgow seats where they got about 2% last time.
Starting to feel the NE and Yorkshire will provide some jaw dropping moments tonight
Why?
Comments about lack of ground troops in the north, lifelong labourites turning out against Corbyn and the mood music in the background. I may be very wrong but I'm expecting seat markets to explode at about 9 I think the pollsters haven't modelled Brexit properly into this.
2017 election feels like a 1992/2005 election to me; the tories will be in opposition in 2022.
Not if she gets her landslide or even a solid majority. Instances of a party going from opposing a majority to governing with their own majority are more or less nil in the last 50 years.
Major's government was a minority by 1997. Callaghan's likewise in 1979.
1970 is the one time it's happened since the war. And Major would have lost in 1997 even if there hadn't been so many by-election losses, enabling him to retain a small overall majority to the end. Actually I think there's a good chance TravelJunkie is correct on this. In addition to the huge challenge of keeping her party together through the Brexit process, May's campaign errors will surely come back to haunt her.
Constituency bets Sheffield Hallam - Lib Dem Hold 4/7. (3 figures bet)
Bets ranging from £20-£50 Gower - Labour gain 11/10 Ynys Mon - Tory Gain 7/1 York Central - Tory Gain 5/1 Tooting - Tory Gain 9/4 Hampstead/Kilburn - Tory Gain 2/1 Ealing Central/Acton - Tory gain 7/5 Wakefield - Labour hold 2/1 Morley & Outwood - Labour gain 5/2 Ipswich - Labour gain 9/1 Edinburgh North & Leith - Labour gain 4/1
I'm going to lose some but gain some I hope. 6 weeks till my P & O cruise so this will help the pot.
Not many winners there.
Its value betting. If 3 come off, I've made profit. I also got two bets that the tories will win 375/400 seats at 7/2 and 400/425 7/1. that was 3 days ago odds.
Good question, I was assuming it was for GB but maybe it's UK. I'll ask Betfair on Twitter.
Answer from Betfair: they're for the UK as a whole including NI.
LD vote will be lower than last time.
It would almost be impossible for the LD vote to be any lower in a lot constituencies, for example in some Glasgow seats where they got about 2% last time.
It can still go down plenty in many shire counties, and would need to if the polls are right and yet they still win target seats.
I did my own voodoo poll poll today. Went shopping and said to myself whatever it costs that will be the seats gained by the Tories. It came to £37 so a majority of 74. I'm sure it was just as nuanced as survation!
if you'd gone to Waitrose instead of Lidl the Tories would happily have bought if for you.
What I find rather amusing with the younger generation and their enthusiasm for Corbyn, is in the long run it will be they who will ultimately pay for the increased spending to fund all his plans when they are in their 30's with increased taxation etc to get debt back down. Will probably pay more than their student loans would have cost them. The idealism of youth!
1. We have had Labour governments before you know. 2. If people want to pay for increased spending, then they have a democratic right to attempt to get a majority to enact those policies. 3. Plenty of economists are sympathetic to policies similar to Labour's. "Austerity" is quite damaging to the economy.
Feedback from Kingston - turnout apparently up on 2015 so far and the vote is extremely tight. Cons however feeling positive
How exactly would those providing the feedback from Kingston (where I assume there are any number of Polling Stations) know that "the vote is extremely tight"?
Comments
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872853742093316097
Obviously, Amazon decided to deliver in those 15 minutes.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/04/liam-fox-meets-philippine-president-rodrigo-duterte
https://twitter.com/KateHoeyMP/status/869270131259703297
Looking for prime ministerial tipples for tonight - all I can come up with are Earl Grey or Thatchers ale. Neither particularly inviting.
Maybe a bottle of Heath's favourite Talisker after all - unless there are better suggestions ?
I noticed this during the EU vote - which some in Labour circles are pointing to as a benchmark for young voters (60-70%) - when people I know in that age group who had never shown an interest in voting before going for leave mainly because of immigration and national identity. They couldn't care less about university fees because they had no intention of going and aren't bothered about nationalisation. That's not to say they like May, but the idea that we'll see turnout rocketing to 70% for the youth might just miss this out.
Worst set of options in my voting lifetime.
- If May gets decent majority it pretty much guarantees the boundary changes (which still report in Sept 2018) will get through Parliament. Even if Lords block the Statutory Instrument there will be over 3 years to force them through - by Primary legislation if necessary.
- Con will bring in voter ID requirement for next GE.
Both the above will give Con a significant advantage compared to this time.
O, And for the record I don't think its going to be as big a win for the conservatives as most posters on hear, may be with Con 335 +/-20 seats, witch I now is quite a big range, but does include No Overall Majority!
The idealism of youth!
Sheffield Hallam - Lib Dem Hold 4/7. (3 figures bet)
Bets ranging from £20-£50
Gower - Labour gain 11/10
Ynys Mon - Tory Gain 7/1
York Central - Tory Gain 5/1
Tooting - Tory Gain 9/4
Hampstead/Kilburn - Tory Gain 2/1
Ealing Central/Acton - Tory gain 7/5
Wakefield - Labour hold 2/1
Morley & Outwood - Labour gain 5/2
Ipswich - Labour gain 9/1
Edinburgh North & Leith - Labour gain 4/1
I'm going to lose some but gain some I hope. 6 weeks till my P & O cruise so this will help the pot.
Low and behold, a Corbynite crawled out of the woodwork to accuse her of being a bad mother, not caring about those at foodbanks, and generally denigrating her.
She politely responded to them, and made them look rather silly.
"Apologies fat fingers. Con total is 376 not 378. Maj correct at 102."
http://www.bythehorns.co.uk/our-beers/wolfiesmith/
Freedom for Tooting!
(Are we living in a bizarre TV movie in which an aged Wolfie becomes PM?)
I'm sure it was just as nuanced as survation!
"Dr. Brown's is a brand of soft drink made by J & R Bottling. It is popular in the New York City region and South Florida, but it can also be found in Jewish delicatessens and upscale supermarkets around the United States. "
Closer to home, Newcastle Brown?
*Allowing for the abolition of the FTPA.
Not a cult.
Con Maj 1.23
May to be PM 1.15
Makes sense - implication is if Con short it'll be close - so significant chance of 313 to 326 range which guarantees May to be PM (at least in short term). And at least some chance she could remain PM below 313.
Also note Betfair don't count Speaker as Con so Con Maj of 2 (ie 326 inc Speaker) will be NOM for Betfair purposes.
http://www.thenational.scot/news/15331798.Tories_are_the_only_party__that_will_stand_up_for_Scotland___says_Stirling_Labour_vice_chair/?ref=twtrec
I may be very wrong but I'm expecting seat markets to explode at about 9
I think the pollsters haven't modelled Brexit properly into this.
No kidding!
I'd be consoling myself back on BBC whilst he does though thinking that outcome means Labour would be facing a definite 12 years out of power...
It's between me and the ballot box.
I hope you guys know what you're talking about!
May could get a 100 plus majority her time as PM is gone and after seeing her face for 5 years people will have had enough.
The economy is not good at the moment. Prices are going up and british companies are ripe for takeovers from foreign companies. American companies have admitted for the past 10 years with all this disruption going on, that they have to do lots of M&A to keep shareholders happy to maintain market position. 20% of the worlds service industry will soon all be done in India. Finance and Big Pharma jobs will move to Europe. It's not all doom and gloom but everyone in this country needs a pay rise. I make £63k; my wife £36k and we don't feel that comfortable. If I did the same job in America, Australia, Middle East I would be on double minimum.
We do live in a low wage economy. I can't believe for example that an MP gets around £60k. They should be on much more but there should be fewer mps and the house lords should be replaced with a senate like in the states.
And yes, of course I want to be pedantic
The octo-lemur and Mr. W agree. The planets have aligned. The constellations decree the preordained outcome. Destiny is inexorable!
Safe as houses!
Good evening, Mr. S.
I live in an extremely safe Labour Seat (Barnsley East). You honestly wouldn't know there was an election going on other than a couple of Labour leaflets (one hand delivered and one by post). I have barely even spoken to anyone about the election, and there seems to be little interest (most people know I've been involved in politics). The only discussion I have had about it was with some family members (in their 70's) who have always voted Labour and this year voted Tory for the first time. I believe mainly because of Brexit.
From general conversation I would say that Corbyn is extremely unpopular round here. Labour will still obviously win easily though.
I am in London today, and on a busy tube journey I did notice lots of what looked like Labour supporting facebook/twitter pages being viewed.
In 2010 I was heavily involved in the Tory campaign in Penistone and Stocksbridge, which was targeted that election. I haven't been involved in the party for a few years now, so don't really have any particular inside knowledge there. I notice that May visited the constituency last week, and I imagine from that that it is being worked again. I would treat the 2015 result there with a pinch of salt, as they didn't do anything there in that election as far as I know. There was also a big UKIP vote in 2015 and the sitting MP was a remainer who I believe abstained in the Article 50 vote. I thought it was a likely gain if the polls at the start of the campaign proved to be correct. It looks much closer there now and I wouldn't want to call it either way. It certainly wouldn't surprise me to see that go Tory (and much more likely than Other Valley or Don Valley in my opinion).
I've given up trying to predict election results, after Brexit and Trump, but my gut feeling is about a 60 seat majority, although I will be waiting nervously for the exit poll, and a larger majority wouldn't surprise me either.
I'll go for 8 Lib Dems. I'm pretty confident that Clegg will win in Hallam.
4 hours to go..
2. If people want to pay for increased spending, then they have a democratic right to attempt to get a majority to enact those policies.
3. Plenty of economists are sympathetic to policies similar to Labour's. "Austerity" is quite damaging to the economy.
http://www.primeeconomics.org/articles/strong-and-stable-the-conservatives-economic-record-since-2010
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/01/myths-money-british-voters-economy-britain-welfare?CMP=share_btn_fb