politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final poll, Ipsos MORI, has CON lead up 3 to 8% + latest b

Pong said:

JMB said:

Why on betfair is there a difference between NOM on overall majority and NOM on size of conservative majority - should they not be the same?

No. I've already made that mistake.

NOM on the size-of-majority market includes Lab majority (and any other party majority)

NOM on the main overall majority market just means no party over 326.

NOM on the size-of-majortiy market should instead be written as "No Conservative Majority" to avoid confusion, IMO.

Thanks

Alistair said:

kle4 said:

Alistair said:

oldpolitics said:

JohnLilburne said:

FF43 said:

TOPPING said:

Andrew said:

KentRising said:

Chameleon said:

https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/872397001924784128

Inexplicable.

What's really silly is that Ladbrokes max politics payout is apparently 250k, so this punter basically got a 249/1 price for something that's about as likely as Elvis for next President.

Shadsy said he would have paid out the £1m.

(yes he said "would've" - WHAT DOES HE KNOW????)

As the exclusion is almost certainly unenforceable, I imagine he would pay it out. It would otherwise be, see you in court.

I thought gambling debts were unenforceable.

Not as such but given the success of Coral in the courts on refusing to pay out at similar odds on the bet "Rangers to be Relegated" (and the contortions they went through to prove that the plain English meaning of the word "Relegated" did not apply to this instance of "a technical adjustment of the club's status from a higher division to a lower division") included their defence claim that "We'd never have offered those odds if we thought there was any chance of it actually happening", one presumes the kind of event that would see the bet win would also be treated as an opportunity to palp the bet, particularly given Coral and Ladbrokes are now part of the same stable.

Rangers weren't relegated. They were liquidated. They ceased to exist.

Seems like a sound decision by the courts - the new Rangers are a legally distinct entity, aren't they? Even in plain English I wouldn't say they were relegated.

The fact that the Old bankrupt rangers had a vote on whether SevCo could get entry to the Premiership and that the players contracts were moved under TUPE is a bit of a hint they are two separate clubs.

No, it is a hint that there were two separate legal entities containing the same football club.

First post after years lurking. Voted a little earlier in Englands most marginal. Pretty busy considering it was lashing it down. FWIW my prediction all through the campaign has been Can maj 50-70.

Ok, now voted. Took all of 15 minutes to pop down to the polling station.

Obviously, Amazon decided to deliver in those 15 minutes.

Polling station fairly quiet, considering it was 5:15. Maybe ten people going in to vote.

Apart from Hammond,the other invisible man has been Liam Fox in the Tory campaign.He did manage to visit a homicidal madman in Duterte to express our "shared values".Is he for the chop too?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/04/liam-fox-meets-philippine-president-rodrigo-duterte

Peter_the_Punter said:

On the drive home this afternoon I saw a banner hanging from a bridge over the North Circular. It read 'Drive under bridge if you are voting Labour!'

Their supporters don't often manage to combine humour with decent execution so I allowed myself a smile.

That traffic had not come to a complete standstill might be a portent ... ?

Looking for prime ministerial tipples for tonight - all I can come up with are Earl Grey or Thatchers ale. Neither particularly inviting.

Maybe a bottle of Heath's favourite Talisker after all - unless there are better suggestions ?

midwinter said:

Has anyone heard that the Lib Dems are in a lot of trouble. Chap who told me that Norman Baker and Stephen Lloyd were losing about this time of day in 2015 reckons they're praying for 5 MPs. (He worked for Baker).
Farron losing, Clegg ok. Don't know how true it is.

There'll be a lot of churn. Losing Southport, C&W, maybe N Norfolk. Farron scraping home. But gaining a couple in Scotland and one or two In London. So maybe about the same number of MPs at the end.

Starting to feel the NE and Yorkshire will provide some jaw dropping moments tonight

Nigelb said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

On the drive home this afternoon I saw a banner hanging from a bridge over the North Circular. It read 'Drive under bridge if you are voting Labour!'

Their supporters don't often manage to combine humour with decent execution so I allowed myself a smile.

That traffic had not come to a complete standstill might be a portent ... ?

Looking for prime ministerial tipples for tonight - all I can come up with are Earl Grey or Thatchers ale. Neither particularly inviting.

Maybe a bottle of Heath's favourite Talisker after all - unless there are better suggestions ?

Churchill was very fond of Pol Roger.

Walked up the hill to vote. Not busy at all.

Worst set of options in my voting lifetime.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Bugger - was going to watch the ITV coverage once we had DD and the first Bong as interested in Balls/Ozzie filling for circa 2 hours... but this is a real turn-off.... unless there's a big tory maj predicted!!

https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872853742093316097

Please people - vote to make this the worst night of Owen Jones' life!

rottenborough said:

Ok, now voted. Took all of 15 minutes to pop down to the polling station.

Obviously, Amazon decided to deliver in those 15 minutes.

Alexa, if the Amazon man arrives will you ask him to wait 5 minutes.

RoyalBlue said:

It's been a busy day for me, campaigning across 3 constituencies. Of the several anecdotes I could share, the most interesting was a man (probably mid-50s) asking me if one voted for an MP and a party separately. By his question, I knew he'd be voting Conservative.

The great untold story of this election is how the middle-aged to elderly who voted for the first time in June 2016 for Brexit will vote now. My gut says they are coming out to vote, and will give May her landslide.

You might be onto something there. I ran into an old guy this morning who clocked the polling station and said something like 'oh it's today, I must go and get my card'. I inferred that he didn't follow the news closely and didn't vote often if he didn't know he could do so without his polling card. I very much doubt he was a Corbynista.

Gallowgate said:

kle4 said:

RobD said:

kle4 said:

Alistair said:

oldpolitics said:

JohnLilburne said:

FF43 said:

TOPPING said:

Andrew said:

KentRising said:

Chameleon said:

https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/872397001924784128

Inexplicable.

What's really silly is that Ladbrokes max politics payout is apparently 250k, so this punter basically got a 249/1 price for something that's about as likely as Elvis for next President.

Shadsy said he would have paid out the £1m.

(yes he said "would've" - WHAT DOES HE KNOW????)

As the exclusion is almost certainly unenforceable, I imagine he would pay it out. It would otherwise be, see you in court.

I thought gambling debts were unenforceable.

Not as such but given the success of Coral in the courts on refusing to pay out at similar odds on the bet "Rangers to be Relegated" (and the contortions they went through to prove that the plain English meaning of the word "Relegated" did not apply to this instance of "a technical adjustment of the club's status from a higher division to a lower division") included their defence claim that "We'd never have offered those odds if we thought there was any chance of it actually happening", one presumes the kind of event that would see the bet win would also be treated as an opportunity to palp the bet, particularly given Coral and Ladbrokes are now part of the same stable.

Rangers weren't relegated. They were liquidated. They ceased to exist.

Seems like a sound decision by the courts - the new Rangers are a legally distinct entity, aren't they? Even in plain English I wouldn't say they were relegated.

Wikipedia (fount of all knowledge) still maintains they were formed 145 years ago.

And yet 'With a new corporate identity, the club gained admittance to the fourth tier of Scottish league football in time for the start of the following season, and were promoted three times in four years to return to the top flight'

'Gained admittance to', not 'were relegated to'.

I'm sorry but Rangers are quite clearly not a new club. To suggest otherwise is just being sad and pedantic.

As a Newcastle United fan, I have much sympathy for fans having to endure bad owners.

As a Leyton Orient fan, please give generously.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Bugger - was going to watch the ITV coverage once we had DD and the first Bong as interested in Balls/Ozzie filling for circa 2 hours... but this is a real turn-off.... unless there's a big tory maj predicted!!

https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872853742093316097

I don't think I can watch ITV now, the thought of Owen Jones gloating is going to be painful.

O, And for the record I don't think its going to be as big a win for the conservatives as most posters on hear, may be with Con 335 +/-20 seats, witch I now is quite a big range, but does include No Overall Majority!

What I find rather amusing with the younger generation and their enthusiasm for Corbyn, is in the long run it will be they who will ultimately pay for the increased spending to fund all his plans when they are in their 30's with increased taxation etc to get debt back down. Will probably pay more than their student loans would have cost them.
The idealism of youth!

kle4 said:

midwinter said:

Has anyone heard that the Lib Dems are in a lot of trouble. Chap who told me that Norman Baker and Stephen Lloyd were losing about this time of day in 2015 reckons they're praying for 5 MPs. (He worked for Baker).
Farron losing, Clegg ok. Don't know how true it is.

There were in a tough position even before any news filtering through today came in.

Well, as has been noted before if the polls are right, then with Lab and Con both up on last time and the LDs static, several of the ones they held last time, most of them even, could be under threat, especially ones where UKIP are not standing, if in those seats most UKIP voters go Tory. It's a question of whether they can cluster their remaining support into those target seats to save them, and even pick up some gains, to offset what will probably be several losses at least (models seem to be ranging from 2-15).

Farron was expected to be safe, he has the only decent sized majority, but who knows.
Clegg is in for a fight, but the Mail want Tories to vote for him and Mark Senior reckons the Lab campaign has not been as good and he should be safe.
Williams' biggest opponent last time was PC, and some are having that one as a four way marginal, who knows what will happen but most models seem to think he is going to make it.
Brake is widely predicted to lose in Carshalton, but some models have him holding on.
Mulholland is vulnerable to Labour surges apparently, but I have no idea.
Pugh isn't standing in Southport and most seem to think that seat is vulnerable.
Lamb has been written off as a loss in many, but not all, models, a bit like Brake.
Olney does not seem expected to win again in Richmond, but if the LDs are outperforming in places, London might be the place?
Carmichael should be safe, Orkney and Shetland still gave big LD votes in 2016.

Some good chances of a few wins in Scotland, with some shots in London (Twickenham etc) and a sprinkling of other targets.

I think 4-10 is their range, in the end I went for 8.

Daniel Zeichner for Cambridge.Lab hold.I'm on at 4-1.Cambridge will remain a socialist city.

volcanopete said:

Apart from Hammond,the other invisible man has been Liam Fox in the Tory campaign.He did manage to visit a homicidal madman in Duterte to express our "shared values".Is he for the chop too?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/04/liam-fox-meets-philippine-president-rodrigo-duterte

Hope so.

TravelJunkie said:

AndyJS said:

TravelJunkie said:

Anyone not voted yet? Voting with the wife - she and voted Tory since 1997 and she's a conservative party member. She doesn't listen to one word I say.

I always vote at about 9pm. Makes it feel more exciting for some reason (!). And I haven't decided who to vote for yet, although I've got it down to two candidates. Doesn't matter much since I live in a very safe seat.

Got 2 bottles of malbec + 2 bottles of prosecco. Nachos with multiple options of dips. Going to make steak for around 9pm.

I'm happy with the result either way. I've back the conservatives to win either 375-400;400-425 seats.

Whatever happens tonight; Theresa Mays goose is cooked. 2017 election feels like a 1992/2005 election to me; the tories will be in opposition in 2022. there voting against corbyn not for may and that was what killed major and blair.

Just twigged. No underscore in your name. Heh.

rottenborough said:

Polling station fairly quiet, considering it was 5:15. Maybe ten people going in to vote.

Yeah mine had only one other voter at half 5. There have been a steady stream of people going in though.

dyedwoolie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

dyedwoolie said:

Starting to feel the NE and Yorkshire will provide some jaw dropping moments tonight

To whose benefit

Put it this way. I think Yvette is nervous.

Really

Nigelb said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

On the drive home this afternoon I saw a banner hanging from a bridge over the North Circular. It read 'Drive under bridge if you are voting Labour!'

Their supporters don't often manage to combine humour with decent execution so I allowed myself a smile.

That traffic had not come to a complete standstill might be a portent ... ?

Looking for prime ministerial tipples for tonight - all I can come up with are Earl Grey or Thatchers ale. Neither particularly inviting.

Maybe a bottle of Heath's favourite Talisker after all - unless there are better suggestions ?

This isn't exactly something you can nip out for, but:

"Dr. Brown's is a brand of soft drink made by J & R Bottling. It is popular in the New York City region and South Florida, but it can also be found in Jewish delicatessens and upscale supermarkets around the United States. "

Closer to home, Newcastle Brown?

Carolus_Rex said:

Nigelb said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

On the drive home this afternoon I saw a banner hanging from a bridge over the North Circular. It read 'Drive under bridge if you are voting Labour!'

Their supporters don't often manage to combine humour with decent execution so I allowed myself a smile.

That traffic had not come to a complete standstill might be a portent ... ?

Looking for prime ministerial tipples for tonight - all I can come up with are Earl Grey or Thatchers ale. Neither particularly inviting.

Maybe a bottle of Heath's favourite Talisker after all - unless there are better suggestions ?

Churchill was very fond of Pol Roger.

To include Churchill would give a pretty well unlimited choice of options, but might be construed as cheating...

kle4 said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

I've been out so you might have covered below but this is an UTTER disgrace. If I was a governor at the school, I'd be raising concerns with the FGB.

https://order-order.com/2017/06/08/hammer-and-sickle-posters-in-primary-school-polling-station-window/

Surely everyone knows you're not allowed to display material like that, how do they think they will get away with it?

They genuinely think everyone else agrees with them, and if they don't they are evil people.

Not a cult.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

dyedwoolie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

dyedwoolie said:

Starting to feel the NE and Yorkshire will provide some jaw dropping moments tonight

To whose benefit

Put it this way. I think Yvette is nervous.

Really

Based on anecdota from the north, not on any inside knowledge. I have a suspicion the SLAB meltdown is moving south.

Peter_the_Punter said:

ShropshireLadd said:

What I find rather amusing with the younger generation and their enthusiasm for Corbyn, is in the long run it will be they who will ultimately pay for the increased spending to fund all his plans when they are in their 30's with increased taxation etc to get debt back down. Will probably pay more than their student loans would have cost them.
The idealism of youth!

Well they are currently paying for our pensions, the deficit and Brexit, so what's the prob?

Not if they are at Uni, haven't paid a penny yet to anything!

dyedwoolie said:

Starting to feel the NE and Yorkshire will provide some jaw dropping moments tonight

Why?

volcanopete said:

kle4 said:

midwinter said:

Has anyone heard that the Lib Dems are in a lot of trouble. Chap who told me that Norman Baker and Stephen Lloyd were losing about this time of day in 2015 reckons they're praying for 5 MPs. (He worked for Baker).
Farron losing, Clegg ok. Don't know how true it is.

There were in a tough position even before any news filtering through today came in.

Well, as has been noted before if the polls are right, then with Lab and Con both up on last time and the LDs static, several of the ones they held last time, most of them even, could be under threat, especially ones where UKIP are not standing, if in those seats most UKIP voters go Tory. It's a question of whether they can cluster their remaining support into those target seats to save them, and even pick up some gains, to offset what will probably be several losses at least (models seem to be ranging from 2-15).

Farron was expected to be safe, he has the only decent sized majority, but who knows.
Clegg is in for a fight, but the Mail want Tories to vote for him and Mark Senior reckons the Lab campaign has not been as good and he should be safe.
Williams' biggest opponent last time was PC, and some are having that one as a four way marginal, who knows what will happen but most models seem to think he is going to make it.
Brake is widely predicted to lose in Carshalton, but some models have him holding on.
Mulholland is vulnerable to Labour surges apparently, but I have no idea.
Pugh isn't standing in Southport and most seem to think that seat is vulnerable.
Lamb has been written off as a loss in many, but not all, models, a bit like Brake.
Olney does not seem expected to win again in Richmond, but if the LDs are outperforming in places, London might be the place?
Carmichael should be safe, Orkney and Shetland still gave big LD votes in 2016.

Some good chances of a few wins in Scotland, with some shots in London (Twickenham etc) and a sprinkling of other targets.

I think 4-10 is their range, in the end I went for 8.

Daniel Zeichner for Cambridge.Lab hold.I'm on at 4-1.Cambridge will remain a socialist city.

You've won that bet.

Another SLAB chap for the naughty step !

http://www.thenational.scot/news/15331798.Tories_are_the_only_party__that_will_stand_up_for_Scotland___says_Stirling_Labour_vice_chair/?ref=twtrec

1100 comments? I feel a new thread brewing.

williamglenn said:

Dadge said:

RoyalBlue said:

It's been a busy day for me, campaigning across 3 constituencies. Of the several anecdotes I could share, the most interesting was a man (probably mid-50s) asking me if one voted for an MP and a party separately. By his question, I knew he'd be voting Conservative.

The great untold story of this election is how the middle-aged to elderly who voted for the first time in June 2016 for Brexit will vote now. My gut says they are coming out to vote, and will give May her landslide.

Although it's very canny of May to piggy-back on Brexit like this, I do hope it comes back to haunt her eventually.

Around 2:30 AM?

Her concession speech is likely to be a little later on...

calum said:

Another SLAB chap for the naughty step !

http://www.thenational.scot/news/15331798.Tories_are_the_only_party__that_will_stand_up_for_Scotland___says_Stirling_Labour_vice_chair/?ref=twtrec

I am aware I will be disciplined by the Labour Party because of this letter

No kidding!

calum said:

Another SLAB chap for the naughty step !

http://www.thenational.scot/news/15331798.Tories_are_the_only_party__that_will_stand_up_for_Scotland___says_Stirling_Labour_vice_chair/?ref=twtrec

What a sensible chap.

BigRich said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Bugger - was going to watch the ITV coverage once we had DD and the first Bong as interested in Balls/Ozzie filling for circa 2 hours... but this is a real turn-off.... unless there's a big tory maj predicted!!

https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872853742093316097

I don't think I can watch ITV now, the thought of Owen Jones gloating is going to be painful.

O, And for the record I don't think its going to be as big a win for the conservatives as most posters on hear, may be with Con 335 +/-20 seats, witch I now is quite a big range, but does include No Overall Majority!

Even if it is a Tory Maj so at least my bets come in on that - if the maj is forecast to be sub say 40 then he'll just bang on about how it's been a waste of time for TMay etc and a massive success for Corbynistas (which in part is true actually) ....

I'd be consoling myself back on BBC whilst he does though thinking that outcome means Labour would be facing a definite 12 years out of power...

MarqueeMark said:

Nigelb said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

On the drive home this afternoon I saw a banner hanging from a bridge over the North Circular. It read 'Drive under bridge if you are voting Labour!'

Their supporters don't often manage to combine humour with decent execution so I allowed myself a smile.

That traffic had not come to a complete standstill might be a portent ... ?

Looking for prime ministerial tipples for tonight - all I can come up with are Earl Grey or Thatchers ale. Neither particularly inviting.

Maybe a bottle of Heath's favourite Talisker after all - unless there are better suggestions ?

This isn't exactly something you can nip out for, but:

"Dr. Brown's is a brand of soft drink made by J & R Bottling. It is popular in the New York City region and South Florida, but it can also be found in Jewish delicatessens and upscale supermarkets around the United States. "

Closer to home, Newcastle Brown?

Mr Brown is a popular iced coffee in a can in Taiwan. V refreshing on a hot day. Goes well with Gordon's Gin?

Pulpstar said:

Just voted.

It's between me and the ballot box.

....and MI5.

First post - I've got 68 separate fixed odds bets riding on the election.

I hope you guys know what you're talking about!

Mr. Putney, I'd missed that, thanks for the correction.

And yes, of course I want to be pedantic

The octo-lemur and Mr. W agree. The planets have aligned. The constellations decree the preordained outcome. Destiny is inexorable!

gambit said:

I hope you guys know what you're talking about!

Oh dear.

peter_from_putney said:

Winstanley said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Bugger - was going to watch the ITV coverage once we had DD and the first Bong as interested in Balls/Ozzie filling for circa 2 hours... but this is a real turn-off.... unless there's a big tory maj predicted!!

https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872853742093316097

Owen Jones is a prime candidate for a hilarious anti-Corbyn meltdown though, he was conspicuously silent about the 'coup' and has been canvassing for successors (Lisa Nandy iirc). It'll all come gushing out if he's tired and on telly.

Not to mention emotional.

If there was a tory landslide he would no doubt have a meltdown on air.

Mr. Gambit, welcome to PB. I hope we do too, I've backed many things with tiny sums.

Good evening, Mr. S.

A few anecdotes, now I've got round to resetting my password and can post again.

I live in an extremely safe Labour Seat (Barnsley East). You honestly wouldn't know there was an election going on other than a couple of Labour leaflets (one hand delivered and one by post). I have barely even spoken to anyone about the election, and there seems to be little interest (most people know I've been involved in politics). The only discussion I have had about it was with some family members (in their 70's) who have always voted Labour and this year voted Tory for the first time. I believe mainly because of Brexit.

From general conversation I would say that Corbyn is extremely unpopular round here. Labour will still obviously win easily though.

I am in London today, and on a busy tube journey I did notice lots of what looked like Labour supporting facebook/twitter pages being viewed.

In 2010 I was heavily involved in the Tory campaign in Penistone and Stocksbridge, which was targeted that election. I haven't been involved in the party for a few years now, so don't really have any particular inside knowledge there. I notice that May visited the constituency last week, and I imagine from that that it is being worked again. I would treat the 2015 result there with a pinch of salt, as they didn't do anything there in that election as far as I know. There was also a big UKIP vote in 2015 and the sitting MP was a remainer who I believe abstained in the Article 50 vote. I thought it was a likely gain if the polls at the start of the campaign proved to be correct. It looks much closer there now and I wouldn't want to call it either way. It certainly wouldn't surprise me to see that go Tory (and much more likely than Other Valley or Don Valley in my opinion).

I've given up trying to predict election results, after Brexit and Trump, but my gut feeling is about a 60 seat majority, although I will be waiting nervously for the exit poll, and a larger majority wouldn't surprise me either.

I'll go for 8 Lib Dems. I'm pretty confident that Clegg will win in Hallam.

Dadge said:

AndyJS said:

AndyJS said:

MarkSenior said:

AndyJS said:

3.6 for the LDs to get more than 10% seems like a value bet to me.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131084295

Does that include NI votes or just EWS ?

Good question, I was assuming it was for GB but maybe it's UK. I'll ask Betfair on Twitter.

Answer from Betfair: they're for the UK as a whole including NI.

LD vote will be lower than last time.

It would almost be impossible for the LD vote to be any lower in a lot constituencies, for example in some Glasgow seats where they got about 2% last time.

For extra tension: as OGH says on Twitter, Curtice and Fisher will have a good idea of what's happening now from the exit poll.

4 hours to go..

ShropshireLadd said:

I did my own voodoo poll poll today. Went shopping and said to myself whatever it costs that will be the seats gained by the Tories. It came to £37 so a majority of 74.
I'm sure it was just as nuanced as survation!

if you'd gone to Waitrose instead of Lidl the Tories would happily have bought if for you.

murali_s said:

Voted by proxy - hope my sister followed my instructions!!

I'm sure she has, I'd happily cast a proxy for Labour if asked - even at this election.