politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At least one of the final polls, surely, will have got GE2017
Comments
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No way does Solihull go LD...Casino_Royale said:
Con Gain Slough/Bolsover, Labour Gain Canterbury/K&C/Barnet/Battersea. LD gain Cheltenham/ Solihull / Guildford.TheScreamingEagles said:
Con gain BolsoverAlastairMeeks said:Can we keep track of the most optimistic prediction of a gain by any party today?
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Don't know. As I remember from 2015 both Trasher and Hanratty undershot the SNP total by quite a lot and it seems this time they are going the other way.AndyJS said:
Where was it originally published?Alistair said:
Thrasher SNP forecast stretches the bounds of credibility.AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/872724388768092160
Only two forecasts have the Lib Dems in double figures. Meanwhile, you can still back them for 3.2 under 10 seats on Betfair.0 -
Must keep an eye on Hull, and particularly the seat Michelle Dewberry is standing in - if she can take votes from Lab and Tories sneak through, I'm in the money. Not hopeful though, not sure how much traction if any she might get as an Indy.0
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Brigg and Goole?OldKingCole said:
Reykjavik South?Lennon said:
I know that I shouldn't say this as a candidate, and obviously all our candidates are fighting hard for every vote, but I'm not going be claiming "Potential Pirate Gain"AlastairMeeks said:
Current entrants: Lib Dems for Vauxhall, Conservatives for Bolsover, Greens for Isle of Wight (thanks @volcanopete), independent for Devon East. Labour seem more muted this time.dyedwoolie said:
Bootle Tories are optimistic about their chances?AlastairMeeks said:Can we keep track of the most optimistic prediction of a gain by any party today?
Or
Aaaarrrgghhyle and Bute
Blackbeard and Broughton
I'll get my coat
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That could and should have been the GE campaign...Every day a new story about jezza the terrorist sympathizer.kjohnw said:I don't know how Corbyns got away with this in this GE campaign
https://order-order.com/2017/06/08/100-times-jeremy-corbyn-sided-terrorists/0 -
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May and Farron were there yesterday.Gallowgate said:
No way does Solihull go LD...Casino_Royale said:
Con Gain Slough/Bolsover, Labour Gain Canterbury/K&C/Barnet/Battersea. LD gain Cheltenham/ Solihull / Guildford.TheScreamingEagles said:
Con gain BolsoverAlastairMeeks said:Can we keep track of the most optimistic prediction of a gain by any party today?
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It's good to see the PB Tories are keeping up their honourable tradition of stereotyping people.CarlottaVance said:Important info:
https://twitter.com/CDP1882/status/872734101803065345
Scots are drunks and young people sleep all day and are bone idle.
How we larfed.0 -
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Senior Labour source: "I can't decide whether it's the end of the beginning, or the beginning of the end" #GE2017
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It was. The Daily Mail, Times, Telegraph, Express and Sun have all been at him over it for days and days.FrancisUrquhart said:
That could and should have been the GE campaign...Every day a new story about jezza the terrorist sympathizer.kjohnw said:I don't know how Corbyns got away with this in this GE campaign
https://order-order.com/2017/06/08/100-times-jeremy-corbyn-sided-terrorists/
Tell it not in Gath, but the Redtops influence, and arguably decide, the election. Based on yesterday's and today's front pages, Labour are in for a pasting today.0 -
Well if we are doing anecdotes - old schoolmate on Facebook has posted his three priorities today are:Jason said:Let's start an anecdote counter.
Cue those who want Corbyn to win - 'went to vote today, saw loads of students, teenagers, young 'uns, etc, massive queues at polling station...'.
Cue those who want May to win - 'went to vote today, saw long queues of the over 50s, etc, not a single voter under 40, etc, etc, etc'.
1) shower
2 vote for jezza
3 do loads of meth.
Apparently the order is important because he is concerned if the meth comes first he may forget about the other two...0 -
George Osborne @George_Osborne
FINAL POLL of 2017 Election from @IpsosMORI for tonight’s @EveningStandard: Con 44, Lab 36, LD 7, SNP 5, UKIP 4, Gr 2
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I know but Solihull voted overwhelmingly for Andy Street and the left will split more than ever between Labour and LD. Lorely Burt had a strong personal vote but that's gone now too.Casino_Royale said:
May and Farron were there yesterday.Gallowgate said:
No way does Solihull go LD...Casino_Royale said:
Con Gain Slough/Bolsover, Labour Gain Canterbury/K&C/Barnet/Battersea. LD gain Cheltenham/ Solihull / Guildford.TheScreamingEagles said:
Con gain BolsoverAlastairMeeks said:Can we keep track of the most optimistic prediction of a gain by any party today?
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Be afraid. Be very afraid.
Not sure if this guy is genuine of a really good parody account.New poll update. In my model, 98% turnout for 18-24 year olds electrified by Corbyn and 60% turnout for over 65’s losing faith in May. #GE17 pic.twitter.com/JCwOTuzH9j
— CorbynFan (@CorbynSuperFan) 30 May 20170 -
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FrancisUrquhart said:
That could and should have been the GE campaign...Every day a new story about jezza the terrorist sympathizer.kjohnw said:I don't know how Corbyns got away with this in this GE campaign
https://order-order.com/2017/06/08/100-times-jeremy-corbyn-sided-terrorists/
The problem is, that Corbyn's supporters dismiss them as "smears".
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That was the campaign wasn't it?FrancisUrquhart said:
That could and should have been the GE campaign...Every day a new story about jezza the terrorist sympathizer.kjohnw said:I don't know how Corbyns got away with this in this GE campaign
https://order-order.com/2017/06/08/100-times-jeremy-corbyn-sided-terrorists/0 -
The lack of the talk about the economy I found most striking this election and business being very quiet as well.FrancisUrquhart said:
That could and should have been the GE campaign...Every day a new story about jezza the terrorist sympathizer.kjohnw said:I don't know how Corbyns got away with this in this GE campaign
https://order-order.com/2017/06/08/100-times-jeremy-corbyn-sided-terrorists/0 -
I see we've reached the point where smug insiders post cryptic nonsense on their twitter feeds about what other insiders have told themSlackbladder said:Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Senior Labour source: "I can't decide whether it's the end of the beginning, or the beginning of the end" #GE20170 -
Good to see the stereotyping of PB Tories is a ok thoughBobajob_PB said:
It's good to see the PB Tories are keeping up their honourable tradition of stereotyping people.CarlottaVance said:Important info:
https://twitter.com/CDP1882/status/872734101803065345
Scots are drunks and young people sleep all day and are bone idle.
How we larfed.
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Cool map.CarlottaVance said:
One more for the list (comes with v clever interactive zoomable map):AlastairMeeks said:ttps://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/872724388768092160
Only two forecasts have the Lib Dems in double figures. Meanwhile, you can still back them for 3.2 under 10 seats on Betfair.
http://principalfish.co.uk/electionmaps/
Con: 350
Lab: 224
Lib: 8
SNP: 45
Con Maj 500 -
Swingback to Ukip.dr_spyn said:
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Ms. Forethought, indeed, that's why people complaining about arts funding being cut and not subsidising opera always makes me a little bemused.
Obviously, if the Government offered to throw me a million pounds buying copies of my books I'd accept. But as a general principle it's daft.0 -
Final @IpsosMORI poll
Con 44 (-1) Lab 36 (-4) LD 7 (nc) UKIP 4 (+2) SNP 5 (+2) Grn 2 (nc)
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/872758791657410560
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/8727597223944888320 -
Too witty to be genuine.MinnieBannister said:Be afraid. Be very afraid.
— CorbynFan (@CorbynSuperFan) 30 May 2017#
New poll update. In my model, 98% turnout for 18-24 year olds electrified by Corbyn and 60% turnout for over 65’s losing faith in May. #GE17 pic.twitter.com/JCwOTuzH9j
Not sure if this guy is genuine of a really good parody account.0 -
Taking part and losing isn't a loss. For the same reason lawyers go into court to defend a client they know is guilty.MarqueeMark said:
But if it is mighty close, you could have influenced the outcome.Lennon said:
I know that I shouldn't say this as a candidate, and obviously all our candidates are fighting hard for every vote, but I'm not going be claiming "Potential Pirate Gain"AlastairMeeks said:
Current entrants: Lib Dems for Vauxhall, Conservatives for Bolsover, Greens for Isle of Wight (thanks @volcanopete), independent for Devon East. Labour seem more muted this time.dyedwoolie said:
Bootle Tories are optimistic about their chances?AlastairMeeks said:Can we keep track of the most optimistic prediction of a gain by any party today?
Can I just say, thank you to all the candidates who are standing - especially the ones who know they are going to lose. Democracy really wouldn't work without you.
You're helping towards victory for the right reasons.0 -
I said right at the start that a majority of around 50 would be fine. Think it may be in that region still. Scotland could be exceptionally good but in my head I still struggle to see the Scons get more than 3/40
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Goldsworth parktlg86 said:
That's my seat, where about's is your station?Razedabode said:Polling station was virtually dead here in woking. Saying that, a super safe seat.
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That's a 7 point drop in the Yes vote since their previous poll but only a 1 point drop in SNP support in 6 days.Scott_P said:0 -
Should we ban polls on election day? Or maybe even for a couple of days before?tlg86 said:0 -
Welcome on board, Cassandra. I have voted Labour without the worries you have because:Cassandra2017 said:I don’t currently bet and I’m not nearly as interested in the details of politics as many of the people on this site. Nonetheless, I occasionally visit because comments here are often more astute than most paid media political columnists can manage. Also funnier.
Which brings up the obvious question – the Mrs Merton question: “So Jeremy Corbyn (admirer of Lenin and Trotsky), John McDonnell (Marxist) and Seamus Milne (Stalinist), why would you put forward a manifesto filled with bribes to get as many people as possible to vote for you which you’ll never have a chance to put into practice because you’ll have no money, the economy will be in ruins, leading to civil disorder and a state of emergency in which the government will assume draconian powers, future elections will be cancelled and opposition will be outlawed, leaving you in power indefinitely? No, no don’t tell me...I’ll get it in a minute...um...oh...ah...now I get it...damn”
Many people will vote Labour with good intentions. But I’m struggling to find a metaphor in which someone shoots themselves and their family and friends in the head with good intentions. Corbyn et al have made clear their intentions throughout their political careers. Over the years I’ve voted Tory, Labour and none-of-the above. Usually I’ve thought it didn’t matter a great deal one way or another. This time it does. If you vote Labour and Corbyn forms a government, there’s a good chance you’ll regret it. “Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow. But soon. And for the rest of your life”.
A. Corbyn won't win.
B. In the remote chance (less than 1 in 30) that he does, he will be heavily constrained.
C. The shooting in the head has already happened with the Brexit vote. None of the parties know what they are doing as far as Brexit is concerned. The economy will be permanently damaged by it (if we are lucky, not massively so). In particular public finances will be very heavily squeezed. There will be no bribes, but there will be worse public service provision and higher taxation. That applies to whichever party gets to power. It will all be about cuts.
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You know Charlie Peters is Scottish don't you?Bobajob_PB said:
It's good to see the PB Tories are keeping up their honourable tradition of stereotyping people.CarlottaVance said:Important info:
https://twitter.com/CDP1882/status/872734101803065345
Scots are drunks and young people sleep all day and are bone idle.
How we larfed.
I believe Ms Vance also has Scottish heritage
And that well known Scotland hater, Angry Salmond also tweeted it.0 -
Fun times.Fleet_of_Worlds said:
I see we've reached the point where smug insiders post cryptic nonsense on their twitter feeds about what other insiders have told themSlackbladder said:Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Senior Labour source: "I can't decide whether it's the end of the beginning, or the beginning of the end" #GE20170 -
I think the average age information for my constituency is wrong. It says 32 but I'm pretty sure the correct figure is about 10 years older.logical_song said:Fun quiz by the Beeb, How well do you know your constituency?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-399523650 -
The tabloid slime-treatment has worked, just as did for Miliband in the last few days. Security threat + tabloid ramping = Tory Maj of 40-50.tlg86 said:0 -
I'm on the Hermitage so I'll be interested to see what it's like at about 17:00 when I get there. It's usually fairly busy then.Razedabode said:
Goldsworth parktlg86 said:
That's my seat, where about's is your station?Razedabode said:Polling station was virtually dead here in woking. Saying that, a super safe seat.
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It's good to see the PB Socialists are as humourless as ever.Bobajob_PB said:
It's good to see the PB Tories are keeping up their honourable tradition of stereotyping people.CarlottaVance said:Important info:
https://twitter.com/CDP1882/status/872734101803065345
Which is a pity, as a sense of humour might stand you in good stead in the days ahead
Edit - the tweet was from a student at Edinburgh University....0 -
Hopeful not confident ! - Happy to let the bet run its course !!Scott_P said:
Morning Calumcalum said:An analysis of all the Scottish polling:
http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2017/06/devastation-for-davidson-as-full-scale.html
I gather you are feeling confident about our bet then?
But I am in a generous mood. You can cash out for £30 any time before the polls close if you want
Ruth finished her campaigning last night in my home village, Fallin, this video was shot in my old street
https://twitter.com/stephenckerr/status/8725258249180078090 -
I just took the BBC constituency quiz
Result: Lost on the way to the shops again0 -
Paddy decided to change my 66-1 to 1-100 on Redwood so I'm hoping he can hold on.tlg86 said:
I'm on the Hermitage so I'll be interested to see what it's like at about 17:00 when I get there. It's usually fairly busy then.Razedabode said:
Goldsworth parktlg86 said:
That's my seat, where about's is your station?Razedabode said:Polling station was virtually dead here in woking. Saying that, a super safe seat.
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Norottenborough said:
Should we ban polls on election day? Or maybe even for a couple of days before?tlg86 said:0 -
Another one blaming the Cons for the UK's vote to leave the EU when their leader was a Remainer, while Jezza was (and is) a Leaver.FF43 said:
Welcome on board, Cassandra. I have voted Labour without the worries you have because:Cassandra2017 said:I don’t currently bet and I’m not nearly as interested in the details of politics as many of the people on this site. Nonetheless, I occasionally visit because comments here are often more astute than most paid media political columnists can manage. Also funnier.
Which brings up the obvious question – the Mrs Merton question: “So Jeremy Corbyn (admirer of Lenin and Trotsky), John McDonnell (Marxist) and Seamus Milne (Stalinist), why would you put forward a manifesto filled with bribes to get as many people as possible to vote for you which you’ll never have a chance to put into practice because you’ll have no money, the economy will be in ruins, leading to civil disorder and a state of emergency in which the government will assume draconian powers, future elections will be cancelled and opposition will be outlawed, leaving you in power indefinitely? No, no don’t tell me...I’ll get it in a minute...um...oh...ah...now I get it...damn”
Many people will vote Labour with good intentions. But I’m struggling to find a metaphor in which someone shoots themselves and their family and friends in the head with good intentions. Corbyn et al have made clear their intentions throughout their political careers. Over the years I’ve voted Tory, Labour and none-of-the above. Usually I’ve thought it didn’t matter a great deal one way or another. This time it does. If you vote Labour and Corbyn forms a government, there’s a good chance you’ll regret it. “Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow. But soon. And for the rest of your life”.
A. Corbyn won't win.
B. In the remote chance (less than 1 in 30) that he does, he will be heavily constrained.
C. The shooting in the head has already happened with the Brexit vote. None of the parties know what they are doing as far as Brexit is concerned. The economy will be permanently damaged by it (if we are lucky, not massively so). In particular public finances will be very heavily squeezed. There will be no bribes, but there will worse public service provision and higher taxation. That applies to whichever party gets to power. It will all be about cuts.0 -
I couldn't care less. It's just boring. Read down thread the endless posts about young people being idle and addicted to Playstation, afraid of rain etc etc. No wonder there is a societal generational split, if this is the level of respect Millennials get.TheScreamingEagles said:
You know Charlie Peters is Scottish don't you?Bobajob_PB said:
It's good to see the PB Tories are keeping up their honourable tradition of stereotyping people.CarlottaVance said:Important info:
https://twitter.com/CDP1882/status/872734101803065345
Scots are drunks and young people sleep all day and are bone idle.
How we larfed.
I believe Ms Vance also has Scottish heritage
And that well known Scotland hater, Angry Salmond also tweeted it.
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So the polls are all(*) consistent with a Con share of 44%. That's a comfortable majority unless everything we know about politics is wrong.dr_spyn said:
(*) excluding the two pollsters with no history who haven't released their data...0 -
Well - less Surveymonkey and these newcomers Qriously (neither of whom are BPC members), the final polling average is (rounded to 1 decimal point):
Con - 43.6
Lab - 35.8
LD - 8.0
... which looks quite sane.
Con lead of 7.8%.
It all depends where the votes are, of course.0 -
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"Britain Elects @britainelects 8m8 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 44% (-1)
LAB: 36% (-4)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 4% (+2)
GRN: 2% (-)
(via @IpsosMORI)
Chgs. with 01 Jun"0 -
As bad a campaign as May and tiny tim had, Sturgeon seems to be the leading candidate for worst campaign, Indy support has dropped, she's losing seats, and her personal polling has plummeted.0
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kle4 said:
Good to see the stereotyping of PB Tories is a ok thoughBobajob_PB said:
It's good to see the PB Tories are keeping up their honourable tradition of stereotyping people.CarlottaVance said:Important info:
https://twitter.com/CDP1882/status/872734101803065345
Scots are drunks and young people sleep all day and are bone idle.
How we larfed.
No stereotyping – it's clear to read from the thread. 'Ha ha, they are all going to play on their computer games and forget to vote – brilliant – we don't want them to vote anyway.' Read it yourself.0 -
Just as a point of hope for the bedwetters out there.
I can confirm that Charles Fifield, Conservative candidate in Bootle, will receive at least one vote. I doubt he'll get much more however, especially as he can't vote for himself.0 -
8% a mid-point of the pollsters? A bit of a Theresa meh election if its right. Tories up a bit, progress in Scotland - but should have eviscerated Corbyn on Labour's economic offering. Suspect there's a bunch of seats they'll lose tonight by not very much - but won't be competitive in them again for a generation.dr_spyn said:
Labour still have big internal fight - goodish isn't good enough. Still a party of losers. They need to find more money to bribe more voters. Or else, get real about running the economy.
UKIP = Norwegian Blue (I suspect they will fall to 3% overall tonight).
LibDems need a bare-metal rebuild on policies (and walk away from the humungous distraction of Brexit).
SNP shine coming off, exposing the turd beneath....0 -
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Out of curiosity would you normally have voted Labour? I had you down as a SCON.FF43 said:Welcome on board, Cassandra. I have voted Labour without the worries you have because
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There is some dispute about whether YouGov's final seats forecast is the final output from their model, which gives a seat projection, or their final poll, which in fact doesn't (though it does say "an increased conservative majority", so can be assumed not to imply a number below 311.peter_from_putney said:
Eh? ....... That wasn't YouGov's final forecast last night!Alistair said:
Thrasher SNP forecast stretches the bounds of credibility.AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/872724388768092160
Only two forecasts have the Lib Dems in double figures. Meanwhile, you can still back them for 3.2 under 10 seats on Betfair.0 -
School mock election anyone?Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/FAITH17T4CG/status/872760736879177728
Corbyn Piling up the votes in Walton.0 -
please keep to the left, seems quite a subliminal message therePulpstar said:https://twitter.com/FAITH17T4CG/status/872760736879177728
Corbyn Piling up the votes in Walton. 0 -
It doesn't take much bait cast out to get the po-faced to rise to the surface.... Lighten up. It might be your only chance today....Bobajob_PB said:kle4 said:
Good to see the stereotyping of PB Tories is a ok thoughBobajob_PB said:
It's good to see the PB Tories are keeping up their honourable tradition of stereotyping people.CarlottaVance said:Important info:
https://twitter.com/CDP1882/status/872734101803065345
Scots are drunks and young people sleep all day and are bone idle.
How we larfed.
No stereotyping – it's clear to read from the thread. 'Ha ha, they are all going to play on their computer games and forget to vote – brilliant – we don't want them to vote anyway.' Read it yourself.0 -
Respect has to be earned by all of us. the voting record of the young is rather poor and that is inexcusable.Bobajob_PB said:
I couldn't care less. It's just boring. Read down thread the endless posts about young people being idle and addicted to Playstation, afraid of rain etc etc. No wonder there is a societal generational split, if this is the level of respect Millennials get.TheScreamingEagles said:
You know Charlie Peters is Scottish don't you?Bobajob_PB said:
It's good to see the PB Tories are keeping up their honourable tradition of stereotyping people.CarlottaVance said:Important info:
https://twitter.com/CDP1882/status/872734101803065345
Scots are drunks and young people sleep all day and are bone idle.
How we larfed.
I believe Ms Vance also has Scottish heritage
And that well known Scotland hater, Angry Salmond also tweeted it.0 -
Anecdote from a teller in a seat where Labour should be making gains.
So far had three youngish Corbyn/Labour supporters turn up, who were very upset to learn they couldn't vote because they weren't on the register.
Apparently Martin Lewis had said you don't need a polling card to vote.0 -
And Lib Dems are losers?Bobajob_PB said:
It's good to see the PB Tories are keeping up their honourable tradition of stereotyping people.CarlottaVance said:Important info:
https://twitter.com/CDP1882/status/872734101803065345
Scots are drunks and young people sleep all day and are bone idle.
How we larfed.0 -
I'm technically a millennial - and the fact is my generation and the one below it do not vote anywhere near as much as others. I hope that changes, even if it means votes for Corbyn, but if someone is making the argument that those people would vote if they could do so online, then how else but lazy and idle could that be described (and that is what prompted much of the comments, that specific issue)?Bobajob_PB said:
I couldn't care less. It's just boring. Read down thread the endless posts about young people being idle and addicted to Playstation, afraid of rain etc etc. No wonder there is a societal generational split, if this is the level of respect Millennials get.TheScreamingEagles said:
You know Charlie Peters is Scottish don't you?Bobajob_PB said:
It's good to see the PB Tories are keeping up their honourable tradition of stereotyping people.CarlottaVance said:Important info:
https://twitter.com/CDP1882/status/872734101803065345
Scots are drunks and young people sleep all day and are bone idle.
How we larfed.
I believe Ms Vance also has Scottish heritage
And that well known Scotland hater, Angry Salmond also tweeted it.
Now, if the argument is the young are less engaged with, not appealed to enough, that is something else, that is them not wanting to vote - in which case the problem is not idleness and the solution is the Corbyn approach of appealing to them more. But fact it some were making the argument the young would vote more if they could do so online rather than a short journey to do so in person, and I find that pretty insulting to young people, frankly. I'd rather believe they are disengaged and we should do something about that, than that they are lazy.0 -
Actually what I was saying is that it doesn't matter hugely who is leader after today because the key thing is Brexit.TOPPING said:
Another one blaming the Cons for the UK's vote to leave the EU when their leader was a Remainer, while Jezza was (and is) a Leaver.FF43 said:
Welcome on board, Cassandra. I have voted Labour without the worries you have because:Cassandra2017 said:I don’t currently bet and I’m not nearly as interested in the details of politics as many of the people on this site. Nonetheless, I occasionally visit because comments here are often more astute than most paid media political columnists can manage. Also funnier.
Which brings up the obvious question – the Mrs Merton question: “So Jeremy Corbyn (admirer of Lenin and Trotsky), John McDonnell (Marxist) and Seamus Milne (Stalinist), why would you put forward a manifesto filled with bribes to get as many people as possible to vote for you which you’ll never have a chance to put into practice because you’ll have no money, the economy will be in ruins, leading to civil disorder and a state of emergency in which the government will assume draconian powers, future elections will be cancelled and opposition will be outlawed, leaving you in power indefinitely? No, no don’t tell me...I’ll get it in a minute...um...oh...ah...now I get it...damn”
Many people will vote Labour with good intentions. But I’m struggling to find a metaphor in which someone shoots themselves and their family and friends in the head with good intentions. Corbyn et al have made clear their intentions throughout their political careers. Over the years I’ve voted Tory, Labour and none-of-the above. Usually I’ve thought it didn’t matter a great deal one way or another. This time it does. If you vote Labour and Corbyn forms a government, there’s a good chance you’ll regret it. “Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow. But soon. And for the rest of your life”.
A. Corbyn won't win.
B. In the remote chance (less than 1 in 30) that he does, he will be heavily constrained.
C. The shooting in the head has already happened with the Brexit vote. None of the parties know what they are doing as far as Brexit is concerned. The economy will be permanently damaged by it (if we are lucky, not massively so). In particular public finances will be very heavily squeezed. There will be no bribes, but there will worse public service provision and higher taxation. That applies to whichever party gets to power. It will all be about cuts.
The Conservatives have no meaningful plan for Brexit. To the extent they can mitigate the damage they are not going to do so, unless something unexpected happens. Labour have a slightly better approach to Brexit in fact, although it hasn't really been tested.0 -
@AveIt will have enjoyed Con Gain Bootle.TheValiant said:Just as a point of hope for the bedwetters out there.
I can confirm that Charles Fifield, Conservative candidate in Bootle, will receive at least one vote. I doubt he'll get much more however, especially as he can't vote for himself.0 -
Why can't he vote for himself?TheValiant said:Just as a point of hope for the bedwetters out there.
I can confirm that Charles Fifield, Conservative candidate in Bootle, will receive at least one vote. I doubt he'll get much more however, especially as he can't vote for himself.0 -
Final ELBOW of the campaign, then:
Con 43.09
Lab 36.45
LD 7.55
UKIP 4.27
Tory lead 6.64
Good luck everyone!
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My Fb has been pretty politics free all election apart from 3 raving Corbynistas, 1 raving Kipper (though I think he may be EDL at this point), and a raving Scots Tory, the usual suspects. Yet today it has erupted in Corbynfever. People who I never knew to have any interest in politics at all are ranting about tories and ordering people to vote Corbyn. The shit some people post is ridiculous, there are people linking to the Canary!
(My FB is basically all within the 25-35 age range outside of my family so don't take this as 'anecdata').0 -
Have they herded changed their methodology as well?TheScreamingEagles said:Final @IpsosMORI poll
Con 44 (-1) Lab 36 (-4) LD 7 (nc) UKIP 4 (+2) SNP 5 (+2) Grn 2 (nc)
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/872758791657410560
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/8727597223944888320 -
You don't, but you do need to be registered.TheScreamingEagles said:Anecdote from a teller in a seat where Labour should be making gains.
So far had three youngish Corbyn/Labour supporters turn up, who were very upset to learn they couldn't vote because they weren't on the register.
Apparently Martin Lewis had said you don't need a polling card to vote.0 -
Do 6th formers (ie voters) still wear uniform? Genuine Q. Looks like a mock election to me.Chameleon said:
School mock election anyone?Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/FAITH17T4CG/status/872760736879177728
Corbyn Piling up the votes in Walton.0 -
We're disengaged. Corbyn has at the very least made a pitch to us (and a very tempting one at that), whereas I'm not sure May even knows that we exist.kle4 said:
I'm technically a millennial - and the fact is my generation and the one below it do not vote anywhere near as much as others. I hope that changes, even if it means votes for Corbyn, but if someone is making the argument that those people would vote if they could do so online, then how else but lazy and idle could that be described (and that is what prompted much of the comments, that specific issue)?Bobajob_PB said:
I couldn't care less. It's just boring. Read down thread the endless posts about young people being idle and addicted to Playstation, afraid of rain etc etc. No wonder there is a societal generational split, if this is the level of respect Millennials get.TheScreamingEagles said:
You know Charlie Peters is Scottish don't you?Bobajob_PB said:
It's good to see the PB Tories are keeping up their honourable tradition of stereotyping people.CarlottaVance said:Important info:
https://twitter.com/CDP1882/status/872734101803065345
Scots are drunks and young people sleep all day and are bone idle.
How we larfed.
I believe Ms Vance also has Scottish heritage
And that well known Scotland hater, Angry Salmond also tweeted it.
Now, if the argument is the young are less engaged with, not appealed to enough, that is something else, that is them not wanting to vote - in which case the problem is not idleness and the solution is the Corbyn approach of appealing to them more. But fact it some were making the argument the young would vote more if they could do so online rather than a short journey to do so in person, and I find that pretty insulting to young people, frankly. I'd rather believe they are disengaged and we should do something about that, than that they are lazy.
The only policy really relevant to young people that I've heard has been the tuition fees from Labour, I'm not aware of a single other policy regarding young people.0 -
Those are kids going into an exam...Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/FAITH17T4CG/status/872760736879177728
Corbyn Piling up the votes in Walton.0 -
I presume he doesn't live in the seat. It's the same for the Labour candidate in my seat.Carolus_Rex said:
Why can't he vote for himself?TheValiant said:Just as a point of hope for the bedwetters out there.
I can confirm that Charles Fifield, Conservative candidate in Bootle, will receive at least one vote. I doubt he'll get much more however, especially as he can't vote for himself.0 -
Cassandra, pardon me for saying so, but you don't appear to have quite the same lightness of touch when it comes to humour as that possessed by the late, great Caroline Aherne.Cassandra2017 said:I don’t currently bet and I’m not nearly as interested in the details of politics as many of the people on this site. Nonetheless, I occasionally visit because comments here are often more astute than most paid media political columnists can manage. Also funnier.
Which brings up the obvious question – the Mrs Merton question: “So Jeremy Corbyn (admirer of Lenin and Trotsky), John McDonnell (Marxist) and Seamus Milne (Stalinist), why would you put forward a manifesto filled with bribes to get as many people as possible to vote for you which you’ll never have a chance to put into practice because you’ll have no money, the economy will be in ruins, leading to civil disorder and a state of emergency in which the government will assume draconian powers, future elections will be cancelled and opposition will be outlawed, leaving you in power indefinitely? No, no don’t tell me...I’ll get it in a minute...um...oh...ah...now I get it...damn”
Welcome anyway.0 -
Not sure if this guy is genuine of a really good parody account.MinnieBannister said:Be afraid. Be very afraid.
New poll update. In my model, 98% turnout for 18-24 year olds electrified by Corbyn and 60% turnout for over 65’s losing faith in May. #GE17 pic.twitter.com/JCwOTuzH9j
— CorbynFan (@CorbynSuperFan) 30 May 2017
Labour voters are extraordinarily enthused (I saw three Labour prominent boards in a small East Hampshire town today, which has never happened before in the field of human history) and Conservative voters sullen and depressed.
Unfortunately, enthusiastic votes made with so much gusto they risk puncturing the ballot paper count just as much as resigned votes made in sorrow.0 -
I haven't seen that much criticism of 18 - 24 group, just scepticism. Survation thinks that 4 in 5 will turn out to vote. Last election is was approx 44%. Does anyone want to try and argue that it will be closer to Survation than 44% even?0
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How many different exit polls are we expecting tonight ?0
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He is a councillor in Cheshire, so presumably lives outside the seat.Carolus_Rex said:
Why can't he vote for himself?TheValiant said:Just as a point of hope for the bedwetters out there.
I can confirm that Charles Fifield, Conservative candidate in Bootle, will receive at least one vote. I doubt he'll get much more however, especially as he can't vote for himself.0 -
Ho ho, the story seems to have changed:
Brussels and other EU capitals will await the result of the UK general election with more than usual interest: it could have a major impact on potentially fraught talks over Britain’s exit from the bloc, scheduled to begin barely 10 days later.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/08/brexit-uk-general-election-result-may-have-major-impact-on-talks0 -
In Jyllandsposten my newspaper of choice today is being called the British vippenvalg (seesaw election) because of the polls - pretty good name I thought!
On twitter Paul Mason and George Monbiot seem to have gone all in on bile while Ian Dale provides a great description of what has been a terrible campaign by all sides
Luckioy Danish TV has live coverage so won't have to watch on my ipad0 -
Punters seem to have no idea what the Tory majority will be (if there is one):
50-74: 5.7/5.8
75-99: 5.4/5.5
100-124: 5.5/5.7
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1311465420 -
Lab's plan for Brexit is staying in the single market and unlimited immigration.FF43 said:
Actually what I was saying is that it doesn't matter hugely who is leader after today because the key thing is Brexit.TOPPING said:
Another one blaming the Cons for the UK's vote to leave the EU when their leader was a Remainer, while Jezza was (and is) a Leaver.FF43 said:
Welcome on board, Cassandra. I have voted Labour without the worries you have because:Cassandra2017 said:I don’t currently bet and I’m not nearly as interested in the details of politics as many of the people on this site. Nonetheless, I occasionally visit because comments here are often more astute than most paid media political columnists can manage. Also funnier.
Which brings up the obvious question – the Mrs Merton question: “So Jeremy Corbyn (admirer of Lenin and Trotskncy in which the government will assume draconian powers, future elections will be cancelled and opposition will be outlawed, leaving you in power indefinitely? No, no don’t tell me...I’ll get it in a minute...um...oh...ah...now I get it...damn”
Many people will vote Labour with good intentions. But I’m struggling to find a metaphor in which someone shoots themselves and their family and friends in the head with good intentions. Corbyn et al have made clear their intentions throughout their political careers. Over the years I’ve voted Tory, Labour and none-of-the above. Usually I’ve thought it didn’t matter a great deal one way or another. This time it does. If you vote Labour and Corbyn forms a government, there’s a good chance you’ll regret it. “Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow. But soon. And for the rest of your life”.
A. Corbyn won't win.
B. In the remote chance (less than 1 in 30) that he does, he will be heavily constrained.
C. The shooting in the head has already happened with the Brexit vote. None of the parties know what they are doing as far as Brexit is concerned. The economy will be permanently damaged by it (if we are lucky, not massively so). In particular public finances will be very heavily squeezed. There will be no bribes, but there will worse public service provision and higher taxation. That applies to whichever party gets to power. It will all be about cuts.
The Conservatives have no meaningful plan for Brexit. To the extent they can mitigate the damage they are not going to do so, unless something unexpected happens. Labour have a slightly better approach to Brexit in fact, although it hasn't really been tested.
I can't see that not causing trouble although the UK being what it is, perhaps they will get away with it.0 -
Not in state schools, no.Fleet_of_Worlds said:
Do 6th formers (ie voters) still wear uniform? Genuine Q. Looks like a mock election to me.Chameleon said:
School mock election anyone?Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/FAITH17T4CG/status/872760736879177728
Corbyn Piling up the votes in Walton.0 -
Past history suggests they will forget to vote. Maybe things will be different this time, maybe not, but it is pretty factual even if you dislike the tone used to point out they typically have very low turnout compared to other demographics, even when they say they are going to turn out.Bobajob_PB said:kle4 said:
Good to see the stereotyping of PB Tories is a ok thoughBobajob_PB said:
It's good to see the PB Tories are keeping up their honourable tradition of stereotyping people.CarlottaVance said:Important info:
https://twitter.com/CDP1882/status/872734101803065345
Scots are drunks and young people sleep all day and are bone idle.
How we larfed.
No stereotyping – it's clear to read from the thread. 'Ha ha, they are all going to play on their computer games and forget to vote – brilliant – we don't want them to vote anyway.' Read it yourself.
Regardless, since you appear to have no levity on the matter, I'll be direct and say the point was you have used a few people as examples and decided to suggest that is emblematic of an entire group, which is the very thing you claim to have been upset about, when it seems the tweet that so upset you was a self deprecating one.
Bluntly, try to lighten up - everything will calm down from tomorrow.0 -
It looks to me a fairly accurate assessment of one of the seats in cumbria that I've had the opportunity to observe. I think it's wrong for Copeland though. The model has it on labour with 99. It really won't be that. The constituency is not going to flip back from only a few months ago.CarlottaVance said:
One more for the list (comes with v clever interactive zoomable map):AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/872724388768092160
Only two forecasts have the Lib Dems in double figures. Meanwhile, you can still back them for 3.2 under 10 seats on Betfair.
http://principalfish.co.uk/electionmaps/
Con: 350
Lab: 224
Lib: 8
SNP: 45
Con Maj 50
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Deleted
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No sign of Tory leaflets, was greatly amused by Daily Mail encouraging voters in Bristol West to back The Green candidate. There is a rumour that The Greens have been using a diesel van, to carry a placard. Haven't seen if it was a Volkswagen.0
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The only Martin Lewis I know is the financial journalist - is there another I don't know of ?TheScreamingEagles said:Anecdote from a teller in a seat where Labour should be making gains.
So far had three youngish Corbyn/Labour supporters turn up, who were very upset to learn they couldn't vote because they weren't on the register.
Apparently Martin Lewis had said you don't need a polling card to vote.0 -
Surely just one proper one - the IpsosMORI Mighty-pulsating-brain-of-Professor-Curtice one.TGOHF said:How many different exit polls are we expecting tonight ?
0 -
My OP wasn't aimed at you! But yes, I agree with some of that. That all said, the world has changed and voting has not changed with it. Walking into a booth and putting a pencil mark on a piece of paper seems completely anachronistic. It can't and should not last forever.kle4 said:
I'm technically a millennial - and the fact is my generation and the one below it do not vote anywhere near as much as others. I hope that changes, even if it means votes for Corbyn, but if someone is making the argument that those people would vote if they could do so online, then how else but lazy and idle could that be described (and that is what prompted much of the comments, that specific issue)?Bobajob_PB said:
I couldn't care less. It's just boring. Read down thread the endless posts about young people being idle and addicted to Playstation, afraid of rain etc etc. No wonder there is a societal generational split, if this is the level of respect Millennials get.TheScreamingEagles said:
You know Charlie Peters is Scottish don't you?Bobajob_PB said:
It's good to see the PB Tories are keeping up their honourable tradition of stereotyping people.CarlottaVance said:Important info:
https://twitter.com/CDP1882/status/872734101803065345
Scots are drunks and young people sleep all day and are bone idle.
How we larfed.
I believe Ms Vance also has Scottish heritage
And that well known Scotland hater, Angry Salmond also tweeted it.
Now, if the argument is the young are less engaged with, not appealed to enough, that is something else, that is them not wanting to vote - in which case the problem is not idleness and the solution is the Corbyn approach of appealing to them more. But fact it some were making the argument the young would vote more if they could do so online rather than a short journey to do so in person, and I find that pretty insulting to young people, frankly. I'd rather believe they are disengaged and we should do something about that, than that they are lazy.0 -
**Outbreaks of bed wetting over a photograph of school children**Rexel56 said:
Those are kids going into an exam...Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/FAITH17T4CG/status/872760736879177728
Corbyn Piling up the votes in Walton.0 -
Just watching Three Girls and the juxtaposition of their experiences, with the fact that they are still at school, is truly shocking and powerful.Fleet_of_Worlds said:
Do 6th formers (ie voters) still wear uniform? Genuine Q. Looks like a mock election to me.Chameleon said:
School mock election anyone?Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/FAITH17T4CG/status/872760736879177728
Corbyn Piling up the votes in Walton.0 -
"“It’s clear if the prime minister wins a much smaller majority than she was hoping for, the talks could be impacted,” one senior EU diplomat said."Richard_Nabavi said:Ho ho, the story seems to have changed:
Brussels and other EU capitals will await the result of the UK general election with more than usual interest: it could have a major impact on potentially fraught talks over Britain’s exit from the bloc, scheduled to begin barely 10 days later.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/08/brexit-uk-general-election-result-may-have-major-impact-on-talks
I guess she was hoping to win all 650 seats so the EU look like they are in the box seat.0 -
Idiots. It's not as if the information hasn't been available.TheScreamingEagles said:Anecdote from a teller in a seat where Labour should be making gains.
So far had three youngish Corbyn/Labour supporters turn up, who were very upset to learn they couldn't vote because they weren't on the register.
Apparently Martin Lewis had said you don't need a polling card to vote.0 -
Quiet now until tonight’s Exit poll, will it be another Curtice bombshell, or a YouGov NOM?Fleet_of_Worlds said:
Surely just one proper one - the IpsosMORI Mighty-pulsating-brain-of-Professor-Curtice one.TGOHF said:How many different exit polls are we expecting tonight ?
0 -
They don't need to be told to keep left in Walton, such subliminal messages are unnecessarykjohnw said:
please keep to the left, seems quite a subliminal message therePulpstar said:https://twitter.com/FAITH17T4CG/status/872760736879177728
Corbyn Piling up the votes in Walton. 0
