politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At least one of the final polls, surely, will have got GE2017

never happened


https://twitter.com/WillMcHoebag/status/872743719866421248

https://twitter.com/helenpidd/status/872739781918289920

Scrapheap_as_was said:

never happened


https://twitter.com/WillMcHoebag/status/872743719866421248

I don't know about you, but I'm fairly sure that I'd struggle to locate the right box to cross if I was blind.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

never happened


https://twitter.com/WillMcHoebag/status/872743719866421248

This is a spoof of a tweet earlier from some earnest sort saying his 93 year old gran etc etc and she said "I'm hungover", which of course also didn't happen.

Busy in Fermanagh. Also in news, bear seen heading to the woods for a poo

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Busy in Fermanagh. Also in news, bear seen heading to the woods for a poo

Vote early, vote often.

Can we keep track of the most optimistic prediction of a gain by any party today?

dyedwoolie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/helenpidd/status/872739781918289920

I had a bottle of beer in a half pint glass once. Felt like a right twat

I believe Newcastle Brown was traditionally served in a half pint glass.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/gmamdani/status/872723608065503232

nichomar said:

Lib Dems avoid oblivion "it was themail that did it" the next headline

Theuniondivvie said:

https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/872571726613405696

'Smash tomorrow'? At last, an honest Tory.

Triple LOL

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/872724388768092160

Only two forecasts have the Lib Dems in double figures. Meanwhile, you can still back them for 3.2 under 10 seats on Betfair.

YG sticking out like a sore ELBOW

Geniuses.

So it is done then. Had 'It's a Sin' by the Pet Shop Boys playing on headphones as I entered the polling station. After I left it was 'Torn' by Natalia Imbruglia. An omen? (Should have been the other way around though)

Of course, 'Mrs Robinson' by Simon and Garfunkel played after that, so perhaps not.

Fleet_of_Worlds said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

never happened


https://twitter.com/WillMcHoebag/status/872743719866421248

This is a spoof of a tweet earlier from some earnest sort saying his 93 year old gran etc etc and she said "I'm hungover", which of course also didn't happen.

It's a parody of something people said happened in the EURef.

Beverley_C said:

jonny83 said:

Morning all, any signs of this youth tsunami yet for those that have voted this morning? I guess it is still pretty early so they could still be in bed.

They all stopped at the Polling Station on the way back from last night's rave session, voted and are now in bed until 3pm as normal

You have to remember that they are not normally seen in daylight hours

Rave session?

What is this 1996?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fleet_of_Worlds said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

never happened


https://twitter.com/WillMcHoebag/status/872743719866421248

This is a spoof of a tweet earlier from some earnest sort saying his 93 year old gran etc etc and she said "I'm hungover", which of course also didn't happen.

It's a parody of something people said happened in the EURef.

Ah, ok. How meta.

dyedwoolie said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Can we keep track of the most optimistic prediction of a gain by any party today?

Bootle Tories are optimistic about their chances?

Current entrants: Lib Dems for Vauxhall, Conservatives for Bolsover, Greens for Isle of Wight (thanks @volcanopete), independent for Devon East. Labour seem more muted this time.

Sounds like Ipsos-MORI have an unexceptional final poll coming out. :

https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/872751241167859712

AlastairMeeks said:

dyedwoolie said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Can we keep track of the most optimistic prediction of a gain by any party today?

Bootle Tories are optimistic about their chances?

Current entrants: Lib Dems for Vauxhall, Conservatives for Bolsover, Greens for Isle of Wight (thanks @volcanopete), independent for Devon East. Labour seem more muted this time.

If nothing has truly changed from the locals then the Tories SHOULD gain Blyth Valley. That is the acid test.

AlastairMeeks said:

Can we keep track of the most optimistic prediction of a gain by any party today?

Con gain Bolsover

FWIW, my prediction

CON 46%, 358 (+27)
LAB 35%, 215 (-17)
LD 7%, 5 (-3)
SNP 43%, 50 (-6)
PC 12%, 3
UKIP 4%, 0 (-1)
GN 3%, 1
Ulster 17
Speaker 1

The party claims:

May wins, "increasing vote by 7% and quintupling majority"
Corbyn "increased vote by 4%, and 'held the line'" (Corbyn's Svengali, Seamus Milne, wouldn't let Corbyn resign, even if Labour's vote fell into single figures. This is the closest Milne has ever got to real power, and he will keep hold of it to his last breath)
Farron disappears into the ranks of forgotton politicians, so there's no leader to come up with an excuse.

The reality.

Tories happy - a healthy majority, and Momentum will keep the Corbyn albatross round Labour's neck.
Labour left happy - Corbyn safe, so five years to change Labour's constitution to the left's advantage.
Labour moderates unhappy - five years of internal fighting ahead.
Libdems unhappy - jokes about the MPs fitting into a taxi abound, and worried about jokes about phone boxes after the following election.

https://twitter.com/psbook/status/872752528085196801

AlastairMeeks said:

dyedwoolie said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Can we keep track of the most optimistic prediction of a gain by any party today?

Bootle Tories are optimistic about their chances?

Current entrants: Lib Dems for Vauxhall, Conservatives for Bolsover, Greens for Isle of Wight (thanks @volcanopete), independent for Devon East. Labour seem more muted this time.

I know that I shouldn't say this as a candidate, and obviously all our candidates are fighting hard for every vote, but I'm not going be claiming "Potential Pirate Gain"

Scrapheap_as_was said:

AlastairMeeks said:

dyedwoolie said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Can we keep track of the most optimistic prediction of a gain by any party today?

Bootle Tories are optimistic about their chances?

Current entrants: Lib Dems for Vauxhall, Conservatives for Bolsover, Greens for Isle of Wight (thanks @volcanopete), independent for Devon East. Labour seem more muted this time.

I've got that bet on a Tory win somewhere in NI at 500-1....

At the time of peak Tory surge I kind of hoped that would happen, just so politics there could be a little more connected to over here.

Cassandra2017 said:

I don’t currently bet and I’m not nearly as interested in the details of politics as many of the people on this site. Nonetheless, I occasionally visit because comments here are often more astute than most paid media political columnists can manage. Also funnier.

Which brings up the obvious question – the Mrs Merton question: “So Jeremy Corbyn (admirer of Lenin and Trotsky), John McDonnell (Marxist) and Seamus Milne (Stalinist), why would you put forward a manifesto filled with bribes to get as many people as possible to vote for you which you’ll never have a chance to put into practice because you’ll have no money, the economy will be in ruins, leading to civil disorder and a state of emergency in which the government will assume draconian powers, future elections will be cancelled and opposition will be outlawed, leaving you in power indefinitely? No, no don’t tell me...I’ll get it in a minute...um...oh...ah...now I get it...damn”

Many people will vote Labour with good intentions. But I’m struggling to find a metaphor in which someone shoots themselves and their family and friends in the head with good intentions. Corbyn et al have made clear their intentions throughout their political careers. Over the years I’ve voted Tory, Labour and none-of-the above. Usually I’ve thought it didn’t matter a great deal one way or another. This time it does. If you vote Labour and Corbyn forms a government, there’s a good chance you’ll regret it. “Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow. But soon. And for the rest of your life”.

Welcome Cassandra to former lurkerdom. I have to agree the comments on here are very funny. My favourite comedian in the snp parody MalcolmG.

I have tried to point out the inanity of the Labour costings but it should be obvious for anyone with more than two brain cells. I am also sick of my friends calling me heartless because I think capitalism works. The level of whataboutery I get regarding a specific person in a specific situation drives me around the bend - as does the idea that some Governmental system will be able to solve everyone's problems.

Lennon said:

AlastairMeeks said:

dyedwoolie said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Can we keep track of the most optimistic prediction of a gain by any party today?

Bootle Tories are optimistic about their chances?

Current entrants: Lib Dems for Vauxhall, Conservatives for Bolsover, Greens for Isle of Wight (thanks @volcanopete), independent for Devon East. Labour seem more muted this time.

I know that I shouldn't say this as a candidate, and obviously all our candidates are fighting hard for every vote, but I'm not going be claiming "Potential Pirate Gain"

You could still come through the middle

Lennon said:

AlastairMeeks said:

dyedwoolie said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Can we keep track of the most optimistic prediction of a gain by any party today?

Bootle Tories are optimistic about their chances?

Current entrants: Lib Dems for Vauxhall, Conservatives for Bolsover, Greens for Isle of Wight (thanks @volcanopete), independent for Devon East. Labour seem more muted this time.

I know that I shouldn't say this as a candidate, and obviously all our candidates are fighting hard for every vote, but I'm not going be claiming "Potential Pirate Gain"

Will you be able to work out which way Vauxhall is going ?

Fun quiz by the Beeb, How well do you know your constituency?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39952365

OldKingCole said:

dyedwoolie said:

rottenborough said:

dyedwoolie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/helenpidd/status/872739781918289920

I had a bottle of beer in a half pint glass once. Felt like a right twat

I believe Newcastle Brown was traditionally served in a half pint glass.

Yes. I fell foul of that on a visit to Newcastle in the 90s. Given a half pint with my bottle and I was like wtf is that for? I believe they spotted I was even south of being a mackem.

Not when I was a student in mackem land around 1960!

TBH I don’t think the pub the students drank in HAD half-pint glasses.

It was the traditional method apparently, the bottle label used to Bart on about it.
I was a menace on the old dog.

Afraid my polling station will tell you almost nothing even about FST. I'm in a very Nationalist area and Protestant turnout will approach 100 per cent of not many. Guess a huge overall turnout will suggest a SF win but as it all comes down to SDLP vote even that not massive sign.

kle4 said:

I like that some of the predictions have really huge Tory majorities and are positive for the LDs, and others are huge Tory majorities but really negative for the LDs. Some very different assumptions behind some superficially similar predictions.

I think the low levels of lib dem seats predictions are from some of the people who have a history in this area!

TGOHF said:

Scott's calling if for the Cons

I see you started drinking early

Slainte

Lennon said:

AlastairMeeks said:

dyedwoolie said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Can we keep track of the most optimistic prediction of a gain by any party today?

Bootle Tories are optimistic about their chances?

Current entrants: Lib Dems for Vauxhall, Conservatives for Bolsover, Greens for Isle of Wight (thanks @volcanopete), independent for Devon East. Labour seem more muted this time.

I know that I shouldn't say this as a candidate, and obviously all our candidates are fighting hard for every vote, but I'm not going be claiming "Potential Pirate Gain"

But if it is mighty close, you could have influenced the outcome.

Can I just say, thank you to all the candidates who are standing - especially the ones who know they are going to lose. Democracy really wouldn't work without you.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

AlastairMeeks said:

dyedwoolie said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Can we keep track of the most optimistic prediction of a gain by any party today?

Bootle Tories are optimistic about their chances?

Current entrants: Lib Dems for Vauxhall, Conservatives for Bolsover, Greens for Isle of Wight (thanks @volcanopete), independent for Devon East. Labour seem more muted this time.

I've got that bet on a Tory win somewhere in NI at 500-1....

Scrapheap_as_was said:

AlastairMeeks said:

dyedwoolie said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Can we keep track of the most optimistic prediction of a gain by any party today?

Bootle Tories are optimistic about their chances?

Current entrants: Lib Dems for Vauxhall, Conservatives for Bolsover, Greens for Isle of Wight (thanks @volcanopete), independent for Devon East. Labour seem more muted this time.

I've got that bet on a Tory win somewhere in NI at 500-1....

Can you just give me the money? I have been a Tory member most of my adult life and don't vote NI Con. Even when telling MPs who visit they agree it's a waste of time. Off the record.

Alistair said:

Member of another forum I frequent had to queue for 25 minutes in Chelsea and Fulham to vote.

Wait, there are other forums?

Alistair said:

Member of another forum I frequent had to queue for 25 minutes in Chelsea and Fulham to vote.

Hands majority will fall, but he'll hold on.

Alice_Aforethought said:

AlastairMeeks said:

kle4 said:

Ishmael_Z said:

kle4 said:

What problem does voting online solve? It's not hard to get to a polling station, and if it is for some reason, we have postal votes and proxy votes.

Did a yougov poll a few weeks back asking about it, and how much more likely to vote I would be if I could do it online. Since I'd vote anyway I said no more likely, but even some say they would be more likely, as I say it's not hard now.

Counting would be quicker, but is the speed of the count a problem that needs solving?

Assuming it would be secure, usher current system so insecure it needs ditching?

I am pretty certain it would bring turnout into line across all age groups - i.e. the young would vote. You can say (if you are happy with the end result which is bad for Lab/good for con) that if they can't be arsed to walk for 5 minutes in the rain they don't deserve a vote, but that's hard to justify - universal suffrage is what it says it is, and laziness is no more a disqualification than is being white working class with no degree (despite the secret view of the Remainers).

The end result is immaterial to me. If someone chooses to be lazy that is their choice, we have seen young people can and do turnout when they want to, and they used to, so the method of voting is demonstrably not the problem. It's people not wanting to vote. That's what needs addressing, making young people want to vote. Corbyn may well show that can be addressed.

If the publishing industry sells fewer books, publishers would be laughed out of town if they suggested making buying books compulsory. They would rightly be told to make the product more attractive.

Although buying the BBC is compulsory.

Only if you consume it. I happen to buy a TV license because I consume the BBC "as live" through iPlayer, but our TV is connected to the internet and nothing else (no cable, no satellite). I also pay for Netflix and Amazon which are our primary sources of televisual entertainment. They are slightly more expensive than what I think of as my iPlayer subscription.

logical_song said:

Fun quiz by the Beeb, How well do you know your constituency?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39952365

not very well 33

Scott_P said:

Alistair said:

Member of another forum I frequent had to queue for 25 minutes in Chelsea and Fulham to vote.

Wait, there are other forums?

Doesn't sound plausible.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/kevwodonnell/status/872729361111293953

That would be a fantastic result, plus with any luck the surges will be in different areas (Lab in Glasgow, Con in the rural areas).

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

Alistair said:

Member of another forum I frequent had to queue for 25 minutes in Chelsea and Fulham to vote.

Wait, there are other forums?

Doesn't sound plausible.

#fakeforums

TudorRose said:

AlastairMeeks said:

dyedwoolie said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Can we keep track of the most optimistic prediction of a gain by any party today?

Bootle Tories are optimistic about their chances?

Current entrants: Lib Dems for Vauxhall, Conservatives for Bolsover, Greens for Isle of Wight (thanks @volcanopete), independent for Devon East. Labour seem more muted this time.

Haven't we heard rumours that Labour think Morley and Outwood is in play? Sorry, that's the best I can manage...

Canterbury for Labour, surely.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

AlastairMeeks said:

dyedwoolie said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Can we keep track of the most optimistic prediction of a gain by any party today?

Bootle Tories are optimistic about their chances?

Current entrants: Lib Dems for Vauxhall, Conservatives for Bolsover, Greens for Isle of Wight (thanks @volcanopete), independent for Devon East. Labour seem more muted this time.

I've got that bet on a Tory win somewhere in NI at 500-1....

Scrapheap_as_was said:

AlastairMeeks said:

dyedwoolie said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Can we keep track of the most optimistic prediction of a gain by any party today?

Bootle Tories are optimistic about their chances?

Current entrants: Lib Dems for Vauxhall, Conservatives for Bolsover, Greens for Isle of Wight (thanks @volcanopete), independent for Devon East. Labour seem more muted this time.

I've got that bet on a Tory win somewhere in NI at 500-1....

Can you just give me the money? I have been a Tory member most of my adult life and don't vote NI Con. Even when telling MPs who visit they agree it's a waste of time. Off the record.

It was a free bet with a bookie.... lord knows what made me do it. Someone on here led me astray I think...

Still as not a bad bet as backing Spurs fan Tracey Crouch as next Tory leader.

Polling station was virtually dead here in woking. Saying that, a super safe seat.

Clown_Car_HQ said:

jonny83 said:

Morning all, any signs of this youth tsunami yet for those that have voted this morning? I guess it is still pretty early so they could still be in bed.

Just seems to be oldies and middle-aged voting in my village.

Mr Clown was first in at 7am I voted on the way back from the school run. Judging by my voting slip number I would say early voting is up on previous elections.

Former MP was just leaving the polling station when I drove past so didn't get the chance to ask how he felt it was going.

For what it's worth the BMG poll is about where I think the polling will end up. I think Cons will be substantially up. I'm thinking a majority of 80-90, partly because of gains in Scotland. I think it will be a mixed bag for the LibDems with one or two good gains but overall no move into double figures. Hope Norman Lamb keeps his seat.

Do we all hope Norman Lamb keeps his seat in Norfolk?

David_Evershed said:

Clown_Car_HQ said:

jonny83 said:

Morning all, any signs of this youth tsunami yet for those that have voted this morning? I guess it is still pretty early so they could still be in bed.

Just seems to be oldies and middle-aged voting in my village.

Mr Clown was first in at 7am I voted on the way back from the school run. Judging by my voting slip number I would say early voting is up on previous elections.

Former MP was just leaving the polling station when I drove past so didn't get the chance to ask how he felt it was going.

For what it's worth the BMG poll is about where I think the polling will end up. I think Cons will be substantially up. I'm thinking a majority of 80-90, partly because of gains in Scotland. I think it will be a mixed bag for the LibDems with one or two good gains but overall no move into double figures. Hope Norman Lamb keeps his seat.

Do we all hope Norman Lamb keeps his seat in Norfolk?

I wouldn't be annoyed if all that was left was Clegg and Lamb.

Blue_rog said:

logical_song said:

Fun quiz by the Beeb, How well do you know your constituency?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39952365

not very well 33

I got 56 which I'm quite pleased with.

Just returned home from Asda and their newspaper display is awful for Corbyn with the sun, mail and express front pages dominating. Lots of people taking the sun and some the mail but a student type picked up the sun and returned it sports page up. Really funny and after he had gone I did my duty by putting it back front page up

Voted LD, just couldn't bring myself to contribute to Corbyn's national percentage in a pretty safe Labour seat. Even last night's mailshot, which was a very targeted pitch to me, ("an unashamedly centre ground politician") did not go far enough to change my mind - it needed to be the full John Woodcock for me to consider it.

I had considered the Tories for the full purgative pyrrhic effect that might have brought down on Corbyn had they sneaked Huddersfield on the back of a 150 majority landslide, but having spent a lot of my last 3 months witnessing the effect of the NHS meltdown on my father's treatment, the gag reflex was just too strong.

The irony is that a Tory majority above 30 but below humongous serves no purpose at all for me - neither keeps Brexit honest nor slays Corbyn, but my vote sees me fall between those stools.

kle4 said:

logical_song said:

Fun quiz by the Beeb, How well do you know your constituency?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39952365

I was in the low 60s 'You know your neck of the woods'

49

misread one question so went for 1 - x rather than x.

Beverley_C said:

kle4 said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

AlastairMeeks said:

dyedwoolie said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Can we keep track of the most optimistic prediction of a gain by any party today?

Bootle Tories are optimistic about their chances?

Current entrants: Lib Dems for Vauxhall, Conservatives for Bolsover, Greens for Isle of Wight (thanks @volcanopete), independent for Devon East. Labour seem more muted this time.

I've got that bet on a Tory win somewhere in NI at 500-1....

At the time of peak Tory surge I kind of hoped that would happen, just so politics there could be a little more connected to over here.

Politics over there is connected to something like 1867. I knew people who still rabbited on about the Portadown Massacre in 1633

Well of course! - massacres (or reports of them) in Ireland later led to a hardening of opposition in the Long Parliament which led to widespread civil war*. 1633 is earlier than I realised though.

*I know it is much much more complicated, I'm just joking

Britain Elects now cast has its final predictions up.SNP -13 so despite an increasing Labour vote,the Tories could be set for a very good night.I think you may have to go back to so much blue on a map to the 1950s.It's a terrifying sight.

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/872724388768092160

Only two forecasts have the Lib Dems in double figures. Meanwhile, you can still back them for 3.2 under 10 seats on Betfair.

One more for the list (comes with v clever interactive zoomable map):

http://principalfish.co.uk/electionmaps/

Con: 350
Lab: 224
Lib: 8
SNP: 45

Con Maj 50