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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At least one of the final polls, surely, will have got GE2017

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  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    welshowl said:

    Polling station Cardiff 9.45

    Queue: none
    Voters: one (me)
    Weather: raining stairods.

    cardiff central?
  • RobCRobC Posts: 398

  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    104 years ago to the day, Emily Davison died after throwing herself under the King's horse at Epsom Derby.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Oh God someone I respect on Facebook just posted to tell everyone to take a pen with them. Urgh
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Iain Dale‏Verified account @IainDale 42m42 minutes ago

    Polling Day Seen Through The Eyes of A Losing Candidate - Me (And How to Lose Gracefully) http://dlvr.it/PKgKc6"
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    Jonathan said:

    Trouble is that a government Will be formed, none of the above is not an option. For me it came down to Brexit. May's narrow approach coupled with her clear lack of ability represents a real risk. I had to vote against that.
    Drat. I thought we almost had you won over.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,918

    Just about everybody
    I've never been particularly impressed by him, but I had expected him to be more effective than he has been. He seemed to have positioned himself very shrewdly during the Clegg years, as the natural successor when it all went wrong. But the floundering over the religious questions - which were bound to arise, as they had two years ago - and that terrible interview with Andrew Neil make him seem absolutely clueless.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,317
    "The politically engaged are a tiny, but enthusiastic, percentage of the population. The difficulty for opinion pollsters is that they are not representative of the public. They follow politicians and political journalists on twitter, they post about politics on forums, they watch Newsnight and the Daily Politics, digest the info and answer polls. They like to show off their understanding and want everyone/anyone to know that A GREAT DEAL OF THOUGHT HAS GONE INTO THIS. As most men in the pub discuss football, they are online discussing politics. While the man in the pub will generally quite bluntly say who he (always) votes for when asked, the politically engaged find such partisan loyalty an affront to critical thinking - being seen to be "undecided" is a badge of honour, it shows they are a serious person. They admire intellectual reasoning and put a high price on their vote, so when the chance comes to answer questions on how they think and why, it's like giving someone a big line of cocaine and asking them to talk about themselves. Political obsessives are the material of opinion polls, but not the fabric of the nation. It could be that in showing off about doing their homework, giving the "clever" answer rather than what they actually intend to do, they are making the polls less accurate."
    http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    My bets, not many as I am not as confident political betting as most one here:

    Sold Lib Dem seats at 34 with Spreadex when the market first went up, looks like a classic bit of aftertiming as I was not on the site at the time, but I did email both Robert and isam and asked them to post it on here.

    Sold Labour seats a couple of days ago at 204, bit risky but just can't be having Corbyn.

    Backed over 7.5 Conservative seats in Scotland at 1.91, biggish bet for me.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    They're all inadequate but it's your democratic duty to choose the least inadequate. You've let yourself and democracy down.
    I think you'll find they are free to choose.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309

    Going through my choices:

    1) Conservatives - no, can't vote for car crash Brexit, the most damaging decision of my lifetime.

    2) Labour - no, can't vote for the dishonest and treacherous cretin.

    3) UKIP - are you kidding me?

    4) Green - no, not this time. Both irrelevant and far too sympathetic to this version of Labour (see 2 above)

    5) Lib Dems - a socially conservative, left wing economic leader is my polar opposite. And their policy on Brexit is stupid. They're irrelevant anyway.

    If that's the choice I'm offered, others can get to choose. They're all shit.
    Did you draw a cock and balls?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    It's worse than that - there's some woman from Maidenhead who wants more Tories in Parliament. She seems to think it's more important than people in Oxford and Abingdon getting to select a Lib Dem MP if that's what they want to do. She's been sending leaflets to voters in Oxford and Abingdon telling them how to vote, and for resons very divergent to just local MP reasons.

    It's horrifying in its subversion of our democracy. She even turned up in person a few weeks back and wandered around Abingdon market trying to tell people how to vote.
    LOL
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,550
    edited June 2017
    Cyclefree said:

    Yes - me, as I said a few days ago, even before the estimable Mr Herdson's post.

    I do not like Mr Corbyn and what he stands for but there is no doubt that he has run a much more effective campaign than anyone expected. Whether it is effective in terms of winning seats / votes we shall see.

    The big disappointment for me has been the Lib Dems. What on earth happened there?
    I have been saying for ages that the Tory Remainers would not depart to Farron. The dog that did not bark this election - and was never going to. A Basenji of a strategy.

    And the timing of the election was awful for the LibDems. A leader who has not connected with the electorate, with no discernible policies other than "Stop Brexit!!!" An election in 2020 would have given them time to get some policies - and possibly a new leader.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    That's me. Turnout seemed just the same as always to me.
    Could the Tories go over 70% this time? Or perhaps Mrs May won't prove as popular as David Cameron in this type of seat.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Many people (may be afew?) voted last year to kick the establishment in the nuts having not apparently suffered from it might just like to have another go and take a risk free shot and it'll wipe the smirk off their faces. Now who are they going to vote for when they find the nice mr farage isnt standing? Well I doubt it will be for May.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340


    Did you draw a cock and balls?

    No, a line through all the boxes and I wrote "ABSTAIN IN PERSON" in a box on the rest of the ballot paper.

    I'm not going to pretend I didn't think about it.
  • LOL
    The OxWAb market place visit went well for her, as I recall.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,317

    104 years ago to the day, Emily Davison died after throwing herself under the King's horse at Epsom Derby.

    27 years ago today Claudio Caniggia almost died after Benjamin Massing flattened him in the opening match of Italia 90
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107

    Yes for over 20 years.

    Not really an issue in Hallam, I know several Tory members who voted tactically for Clegg in 2015.
    A bit odd that you support them financially but vote against them.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    It's worse than that - there's some woman from Maidenhead who wants more Tories in Parliament. She seems to think it's more important than people in Oxford and Abingdon getting to select a Lib Dem MP if that's what they want to do. She's been sending leaflets to voters in Oxford and Abingdon telling them how to vote, and for resons very divergent to just local MP reasons.

    It's horrifying in its subversion of our democracy. She even turned up in person a few weeks back and wandered around Abingdon market trying to tell people how to vote.
    To be fair to the woman from Maidenhead, she's mainly been telling Tory activists how to vote.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Alistair said:

    I think you'll find they are free to choose.
    He didn't choose. He sat on his arse.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    It is going to be an interesting evening. My bottle of wine is chilling and the munchies are at the ready.

    I must remember to pop over to the Polling Station.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,671

    No, a line through all the boxes and I wrote "ABSTAIN IN PERSON" in a box on the rest of the ballot paper.

    I'm not going to pretend I didn't think about it.
    I had you down as someone who would have gone for Vi Coactus or V.C. instead.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,550

    It's worse than that - there's some woman from Maidenhead who wants more Tories in Parliament. She seems to think it's more important than people in Oxford and Abingdon getting to select a Lib Dem MP if that's what they want to do. She's been sending leaflets to voters in Oxford and Abingdon telling them how to vote, and for resons very divergent to just local MP reasons.

    It's horrifying in its subversion of our democracy. She even turned up in person a few weeks back and wandered around Abingdon market trying to tell people how to vote.
    Fear not - she has a nemesis. A bald man who keeps in the shadows, but who also sends out leaflets to voters, gently steering people where to vote tactically (so that his bets might come in, suggest some less than generous souls....)
  • Mrs Fleet is hoping for a less eventful day in the polling station than at the locals, when a voter in a mobility scooter ran amok after pressing the joystick in the wrong direction and pinned the table, polling equipment, Presiding officer and Polling clerks to the wall.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I had you down as someone who would have gone for Vi Coactus or V.C. instead.
    That sounds like the name of a Green candidate.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    Chris said:

    I've never been particularly impressed by him, but I had expected him to be more effective than he has been. He seemed to have positioned himself very shrewdly during the Clegg years, as the natural successor when it all went wrong. But the floundering over the religious questions - which were bound to arise, as they had two years ago - and that terrible interview with Andrew Neil make him seem absolutely clueless.
    It's like Nuttall, I like him and his interview with Neil was very good, but all the wider electorate hear about is Hillsborough etc. Farron wants to reverse the result of a referendum, the general public doesn't like that sort of thing.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    He didn't choose. He sat on his arse.
    I was doing a joke.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,568

    It's worse than that - there's some woman from Maidenhead who wants more Tories in Parliament. She seems to think it's more important than people in Oxford and Abingdon getting to select a Lib Dem MP if that's what they want to do. She's been sending leaflets to voters in Oxford and Abingdon telling them how to vote, and for resons very divergent to just local MP reasons.

    It's horrifying in its subversion of our democracy. She even turned up in person a few weeks back and wandered around Abingdon market trying to tell people how to vote.
    LOL
  • Second email this morning from Nicola just now asking for GOTV help in OxWAb.... ominous for the blues I'd have thought.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,568

    Yes for over 20 years.

    Not really an issue in Hallam, I know several Tory members who voted tactically for Clegg in 2015.
    The Mail has advised them to do so again, and with 4 other LD seats/targets. I think it would be hilarious if all five return LDs.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    The LD campaign suffered partly from the leader's shortcomings but the fundamental problem was terrible stategic decisions. The Brexit line and emphasis is one. The biggest mistake was not to go all guns blazing after Corbyn and by implilication be the sensible non-Tory option. I think they will pick up some last minute crosses from anti-Corbyn centre left voters who can't bring themselves to vote Tory.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232

    I had you down as someone who would have gone for Vi Coactus or V.C. instead.
    :)
  • madasafishmadasafish Posts: 659
    nunu said:

    cardiff central?
    Polling Station Staffordshire Moorlands
    Weather: overcast and damp.
    Voters: eight arrive with my wife and myself, another six or so leave as we walk up the path, and another four pass us on the way out of the station ...
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    I don't agree with vote swapping. Effectively it means that you have feelings and beliefs in a party but are willing to traduced them by voting for another party in the hope that a stranger will do the same. So you're expecting two traitors to act honourably-weird.

    Dante had a large circle especially reserved for traitors.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309

    No, a line through all the boxes and I wrote "ABSTAIN IN PERSON" in a box on the rest of the ballot paper.

    I'm not going to pretend I didn't think about it.
    Fair enough!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    voted and gone home for a cuppa before trying trains again

    saw this

    https://order-order.com/2017/06/08/100-times-jeremy-corbyn-sided-terrorists/

    Seriously, Labour leaners, you are happy to support this vile excuse of a human being?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045

    The OxWAb market place visit went well for her, as I recall.
    One of our locals gave her a piece of her mind on TV, yes.
    The Maidenhead woman hasn't been back since.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    It is going to be an interesting evening. My bottle of wine is chilling and the munchies are at the ready.

    I must remember to pop over to the Polling Station.

    My missus is going out for a meal with a couple of her mates this evening, so I will order a curry from my favourite Indian Restautant (Maliks in Gerrards Cross), have a couple of beers before starting on the red wine.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,671
    kle4 said:

    The Mail has advised them to do so again, and with 4 other LD seats/targets. I think it would be hilarious if all five return LDs.
    Have they? That's awesome.

    See, I voted the way The Daily Mail wanted Tories to do so.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Alistair said:

    I was doing a joke.
    You were trying to make a joke. I've never heard of anyone doing a joke.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited June 2017

    Second email this morning from Nicola just now asking for GOTV help in OxWAb.... ominous for the blues I'd have thought.

    Same, just driven through Abingdon, turnout is looking relatively high judging by people walking in/out. The town itself should go heavily LD based on the council elections.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,568

    A bit odd that you support them financially but vote against them.
    Via his vote swap he secured a better chance of a Tory gain than voting Tory in Hallam will!
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    No, a line through all the boxes and I wrote "ABSTAIN IN PERSON" in a box on the rest of the ballot paper.

    I'm not going to pretend I didn't think about it.
    I feel like doing the same, especially as here they do not need to count the Tory vote - just measure the thickness of the pile with a ruler marked in feet usually does the trick :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232
    Blue_rog said:

    I don't agree with vote swapping. Effectively it means that you have feelings and beliefs in a party but are willing to traduced them by voting for another party in the hope that a stranger will do the same. So you're expecting two traitors to act honourably-weird.

    Dante had a large circle especially reserved for traitors.

    Sometimes you have to channel your inner Peter Mandelson though.
  • DearPBDearPB Posts: 439

    Second email this morning from Nicola just now asking for GOTV help in OxWAb.... ominous for the blues I'd have thought.

    They'll be pre-scheduled emails; I've been asked to help GOTV in a seat with a 30K Tory majority. Tory activity online and by email shouldn't be seen as worry - it should be seen as effective e-marketing.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,671
    edited June 2017

    That sounds like the name of a Green candidate.
    It does.

    Just remembered Vi Coactus is a very Kipperish thing to do, ugh.

    https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/politics/resignation-reluctant-ukip-leader-diane-james-paves-way-new-ballot-fresh-infighting/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232
    kle4 said:

    Via his vote swap he secured a better chance of a Tory gain than voting Tory in Hallam will!
    I think I've improved Clegg's chances - Britain Elect has the seat going Labour.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,918

    Fear not - she has a nemesis. A bald man who keeps in the shadows ...
    Doctor Evil?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    A prediction from a tory blog

    http://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/cerberuss-election-prediction-overall-conservative-majority-76/

    Seems high on SNP turnips - I mean seats
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,568
    Pulpstar said:

    I think I've improved Clegg's chances - Britain Elect has the seat going Labour.
    I like Clegg, I hope he survives.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,366
    Floater said:

    voted and gone home for a cuppa before trying trains again

    saw this

    https://order-order.com/2017/06/08/100-times-jeremy-corbyn-sided-terrorists/

    Seriously, Labour leaners, you are happy to support this vile excuse of a human being?

    The good thing is that in the future when some tedious leftie starts banging on about some trivial thing someone on the right has said, we will be able to throw Corbyn the terrorist sympathiser back in their face.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    calum said:
    Morning Calum

    I gather you are feeling confident about our bet then?

    But I am in a generous mood. You can cash out for £30 any time before the polls close if you want :smile:
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,840
    Pulpstar said:

    Sometimes you have to channel your inner Peter Mandelson though.
    Is that a coalition of chaos in your avatar? That woman from Maidenhead was warning about that sort of thing.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Pulpstar said:

    I think I've improved Clegg's chances - Britain Elect has the seat going Labour.
    It would be a massive shame if Clegg lost his seat.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    edited June 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Sometimes you have to channel your inner Peter Mandelson though.
    If people are so concerned they can move to a marginal constituency. It seems a bit rich living in a pleasant part of the world in a safe seat but wanting someone in a less fortunate part of the world to vote against their beliefs. Not everyone regards a GE as a game. It decides the direction of the country for the next 5 years
  • I don’t currently bet and I’m not nearly as interested in the details of politics as many of the people on this site. Nonetheless, I occasionally visit because comments here are often more astute than most paid media political columnists can manage. Also funnier.

    So I’ve been surprised that, as far as I can see, no one has spelled out in so many words what Corbyn’s Labour may really be about (if someone has already done this and I’ve missed it, I apologise). It seems obvious that Labour’s manifesto can never be put into practice and that it was never intended that it would be. Should Labour come to government, it’s inevitable that there’ll be an immediate and acute financial crisis, followed soon afterwards by a crippling economic crisis. Government won’t have enough money for current spending, let alone the extravagant promises in Labour’s manifesto. Despite this, the media (and the Conservatives) has discussed the proposals as though they were plausible...

    “So Mr Corbyn, you plan to build a star-ship and fly to Alpha Centauri in 20 minutes. How will you get there so quickly?” “Oh, we’ll bend space and time using black holes, dark energy and warp drives, sort out those pesky time-travel paradoxes and for the first time provide faster-than-light travel for the proletariat”. “Well Mr Corbyn, I’m sure that’s all very well – quite beyond me - but I really must press you on the important question to which people want answers... will we get sandwiches?” (I imagine John Humphrys as the interviewer but it could be almost any one of them).

    Which brings up the obvious question – the Mrs Merton question: “So Jeremy Corbyn (admirer of Lenin and Trotsky), John McDonnell (Marxist) and Seamus Milne (Stalinist), why would you put forward a manifesto filled with bribes to get as many people as possible to vote for you which you’ll never have a chance to put into practice because you’ll have no money, the economy will be in ruins, leading to civil disorder and a state of emergency in which the government will assume draconian powers, future elections will be cancelled and opposition will be outlawed, leaving you in power indefinitely? No, no don’t tell me...I’ll get it in a minute...um...oh...ah...now I get it...damn”

    Many people will vote Labour with good intentions. But I’m struggling to find a metaphor in which someone shoots themselves and their family and friends in the head with good intentions. Corbyn et al have made clear their intentions throughout their political careers. Over the years I’ve voted Tory, Labour and none-of-the above. Usually I’ve thought it didn’t matter a great deal one way or another. This time it does. If you vote Labour and Corbyn forms a government, there’s a good chance you’ll regret it. “Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow. But soon. And for the rest of your life”.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,671
    Scott_P said:
    A bit like the time I created the constituency of Rochester and Stroud (thanks to an auto-correct)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232
    Blue_rog said:

    It decides the direction of the country for the next 5 years

    Of course it does, that is why I'm doing what I'm doing - there is no way on God's green earth Corbyn is getting in on my watch. No chance, no chance at all.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,335
    edited June 2017

    104 years ago to the day, Emily Davison died after throwing herself under the King's horse at Epsom Derby.

    Let's hope no one chucks themself under a horse at Sandown this evening due to the paucity of talent & principle for which they can vote.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Lib Dems avoid oblivion "it was themail that did it" the next headline
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    @Cassandra2017

    Welcome and a very good first post
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,550
    DearPB said:

    They'll be pre-scheduled emails; I've been asked to help GOTV in a seat with a 30K Tory majority. Tory activity online and by email shouldn't be seen as worry - it should be seen as effective e-marketing.
    Dr Sarah Wollaston has been doing the same in the last couple of days with her (last time) 18k majority.....over UKIP. Just good organisation.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/872724388768092160

    Only two forecasts have the Lib Dems in double figures. Meanwhile, you can still back them for 3.2 under 10 seats on Betfair.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    Morning all, any signs of this youth tsunami yet for those that have voted this morning? I guess it is still pretty early so they could still be in bed.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    jonny83 said:

    Morning all, any signs of this youth tsunami yet for those that have voted this morning? I guess it is still pretty early so they could still be in bed.

    My 2 lads who still live at home are not bothering

    Even the one who hates Corbyn
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,335
    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/872571726613405696

    'Smash tomorrow'? At last, an honest Tory.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232
    Floater said:
    I think that piece is spot on.
  • I am pleased to report that my contact in a polling station in a tiny, hugely exclusive rural hamlet just outside Faringdon in Oxfordshire tells us that around 20% of his electors have already voted, mostly utilising zimmer frames, and there is nary a corbynista to be seen. Also some sparrows are behaving in a lewd fashion in the village hall bird bath and a B1 bomber just flew overhead on the way to Fairford. Hope this helps.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited June 2017
    jonny83 said:

    Morning all, any signs of this youth tsunami yet for those that have voted this morning? I guess it is still pretty early so they could still be in bed.

    I suspect you'd only see signs at lunch/in the evening.

    Steady to brisk at my polling station it appears, only the oldies though. I'll be voting later.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,662

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/872724388768092160

    Only two forecasts have the Lib Dems in double figures. Meanwhile, you can still back them for 3.2 under 10 seats on Betfair.

    YG sticking out like a sore ELBOW :lol:
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    104 years ago to the day, Emily Davison died after throwing herself under the King's horse at Epsom Derby.

    The poor traumatized jockey later committed suicide.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Anecdote time. My parents have had 5 pieces of communication from the blues, they are in the suburban bit of Norwich South. Also had a visit from the Tory candidate who they say is a lovely woman who reported vandalism to her placards etc.
    Consequently I am of the impression there is a much much stronger shy Tory vote than I had assumed. The antagonistic approach from momentumers is driving, I think, numbers quietly for blue.
    Not me, I might add. I'm immune to such things ;)
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/872724388768092160

    Only two forecasts have the Lib Dems in double figures. Meanwhile, you can still back them for 3.2 under 10 seats on Betfair.

    Think Yougov have still to update their forecast with yesterday's polls
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    The Green party is optimistic of a gain in the Isle of Wight having mobilized the anti-Tory vote.Both Tory MP and Tory party highly unpopular.16-1 best priced Bet365.12-1 WH.Andrew Turner would be an excellent Tory scalp.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    I think that piece is spot on.
    In rushing from Scylla, he doesn't notice Charybdis.
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    Did the pirate thing and marked the spot with an X.

    "Turnout up on normal for this time of day" in the Llanfynydd ward of Alyn & Deeside constituency.

    I saw no yoof though.
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    Did the pirate thing and marked the spot with an X.

    "Turnout up on normal for this time of day" in the Llanfynydd ward of Alyn & Deeside constituency.

    I saw no yoof though.
  • https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/872724388768092160

    Only two forecasts have the Lib Dems in double figures. Meanwhile, you can still back them for 3.2 under 10 seats on Betfair.

    I'd like some of what Iain Dale and Election Data are on.
  • Let's hope no one chucks themself under a horse at Sandown this evening due to the paucity of talent & principle for which they can vote.
    I very much hope they don't too.

    But should anyone be thinking of it, heaven forbid, would you mind doing so under Splash Around in the 6.30? It's just that I have a tenner on Utopian Dream, and it would do me a tremendous favour. Thanks.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309

    I don’t currently bet and I’m not nearly as interested in the details of politics as many of the people on this site. Nonetheless, I occasionally visit because comments here are often more astute than most paid media political columnists can manage. Also funnier.

    So I’ve been surprised that, as far as I can see, no one has spelled out in so many words what Corbyn’s Labour may really be about (if someone has already done this and I’ve missed it, I apologise). It seems obvious that Labour’s manifesto can never be put into practice and that it was never intended that it would be. Should Labour come to government, it’s inevitable that there’ll be an immediate and acute financial crisis, followed soon afterwards by a crippling economic crisis. Government won’t have enough money for current spending, let alone the extravagant promises in Labour’s manifesto. Despite this, the media (and the Conservatives) has discussed the proposals as though they were plausible...

    “So Mr Corbyn, you plan to build a star-ship and fly to Alpha Centauri in 20 minutes. How will you get there so quickly?” “Oh, we’ll bend space and time using black holes, dark energy and warp drives, sort out those pesky time-travel paradoxes and for the first time provide faster-than-light travel for the proletariat”. “Well Mr Corbyn, I’m sure that’s all very well – quite beyond me - but I really must press you on the important question to which people want answers... will we get sandwiches?” (I imagine John Humphrys as the interviewer but it could be almost any one of them).

    Which brings up the obvious question – the Mrs Merton question: “So Jeremy Corbyn (admirer of Lenin and Trotsky), John McDonnell (Marxist) and Seamus Milne (Stalinist), why would you put forward a manifesto filled with bribes to get as many people as possible to vote for you which you’ll never have a chance to put into practice because you’ll have no money, the economy will be in ruins, leading to civil disorder and a state of emergency in which the government will assume draconian powers, future elections will be cancelled and opposition will be outlawed, leaving you in power indefinitely? No, no don’t tell me...I’ll get it in a minute...um...oh...ah...now I get it...damn”

    Many people will vote Labour with good intentions. But I’m struggling to find a metaphor in which someone shoots themselves and their family and friends in the head with good intentions. Corbyn et al have made clear their intentions throughout their political careers. Over the years I’ve voted Tory, Labour and none-of-the above. Usually I’ve thought it didn’t matter a great deal one way or another. This time it does. If you vote Labour and Corbyn forms a government, there’s a good chance you’ll regret it. “Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow. But soon. And for the rest of your life”.

    Excellent post.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    I suspect you'd only see signs at lunch/in the evening.

    Steady to brisk at my polling station it appears, only the oldies though. I'll be voting later.
    You mean those who really, really hate Corbyn
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,662
    Ipsos MORI are to polling wot the USA were to WW1 AND WW2 :lol:
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I'd like some of what Iain Dale and Election Data are on.
    My prediction is very close to Election Data's. It cheered me up no end when I saw that afterwards.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    jonny83 said:

    Morning all, any signs of this youth tsunami yet for those that have voted this morning? I guess it is still pretty early so they could still be in bed.

    I live in York Outer a safe Conservative seat in this suburb , I have never seen a Labour poster as it always used to be Lib Dem. I think regarding the neighbours it must be their children who are now in their twenties.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,481
    Just voted, earlier than usual. Very few posters or suchlike on the way, far fewer than usual. Just a couple extra for Andrea Jenkyns. Polling station was busier than I've ever seen it, but the vast majority were on the elder side (out of 20, there was me and one other bloke who wouldn't qualify for a free bus pass).

    Unsure it means much, but thought I'd mention it. Higher turnout here might be due to the tightness of the seat, if turnout is actually on the up.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232
    edited June 2017

    The Green party is optimistic of a gain in the Isle of Wight having mobilized the anti-Tory vote.Both Tory MP and Tory party highly unpopular.16-1 best priced Bet365.12-1 WH.Andrew Turner would be an excellent Tory scalp.

    http://www.islandecho.co.uk/news/poll-puts-green-candidate-ahead-going-into-general-election

    Online newspaper poll.
    Andrew Turner isn't running anyway, Bob Seely will romp home.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    calum said:
    I'm sure Ruth will be "devastated" if she finishes 3rd on votes but 2nd on seats..
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    The Green party is optimistic of a gain in the Isle of Wight having mobilized the anti-Tory vote.Both Tory MP and Tory party highly unpopular.16-1 best priced Bet365.12-1 WH.Andrew Turner would be an excellent Tory scalp.

    Andrew Turner was ousted as Tory candidate, it was very high profile on the Island. Greens fighting for second but will be miles behind the Cons. Theresa May very popular in that neck of the woods.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,550

    I am pleased to report that my contact in a polling station in a tiny, hugely exclusive rural hamlet just outside Faringdon in Oxfordshire tells us that around 20% of his electors have already voted, mostly utilising zimmer frames, and there is nary a corbynista to be seen. Also some sparrows are behaving in a lewd fashion in the village hall bird bath and a B1 bomber just flew overhead on the way to Fairford. Hope this helps.

    The B1 is on standby, lest the Corbynistas venture out.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    No election placards by anyone other than Tommy Sheppard by my polling place which probably shows how much effort everyone is putting in here.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    The B1 is on standby, lest the Corbynistas venture out.
    Sounds like a good plan
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Well in Thornbury and Yate I supported the libdems. If it had been close I would have considered lending my vote to the Tories as I cannot stand Corbyn. My primary reason for supporting the libdems is that I think we need to fund our public services better and that means we all need to be adult about it and to pay more in taxes to do the right thing. The labour fantasy that somehow 90% of people won't be affected by more taxes is something that I find deeply insulting and believe it would be counter productive.
  • The B1 is on standby, lest the Corbynistas venture out.
    Most reassuring.
This discussion has been closed.