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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited June 2017
    Jonathan said:

    Question is. Does sending May to a marginal help or hinder the Tory cause. Polls suggest maybe the latter.

    Messina might be sending her where she can do least harm.
    Except they don't. The gap in best leader etc has closed, but May's numbers have only gone down a tiny bit. It is the Corbgasm among the young that has changed the numbers.

    Also, it seems she is popular among parts of the electorate that don't like Tories much. Bugger me why that is.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,337
    edited June 2017

    No, I'd disagree.

    Neither PB nor UKPR are 'balanced' per se - this place leans right, and there it leans left.
    You had better watch out - I've been visiting for 7 years, and it has finally had me voting Tory.

    Feels a bit of an inefficient method of conversion, but the PB Tories are patient.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,097
    Oh, Corbyn in an extremely safe seat in Birmingham and May in Slough of all places.

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    JackW said:

    Further to my contacts missive this morning.

    I've had eight full responses from the 15. Sadly one is poorly and another on holiday !! ... so five to come.

    Hoping to publish late tomorrow.

    sneak preview???
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,183

    Maybe, but the LDs will have laid the ground for the next election.
    For disappearing entirely, you presumably mean?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Stafford Conservatives being asked to go to Stoke and Newcastle tomorrow.

    Seem like cruel and unusual punishment to me.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    No, I'd disagree.

    Neither PB nor UKPR are 'balanced' per se - this place leans right, and there it leans left.
    The blog section of UKPR is very left-wing these days. The constituency section is more balanced.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,306
    Isn't it a mistake putting Boris in front of the cameras talking bout terrorism? Apart from sounding typically insincere everyone knows the Saudis are the chief sponsors of terrorism and Boris is in their pocket.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Mortimer said:

    Mrs May in Slough. Very interesting....

    Thersa May is in Slough. A good candidate for the most depressing sentence in the English language.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    I'd go for Lisa Nandy myself. Though I like Chuka, I think Labour needs a leader based a long way from London.
    +1. I also like Chuka too, but they need someone who is not from London - Midlands/North-East would be good.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    sneak preview???
    Looking forward to it!

    Will it be as reliable as the Ave_it final forecast?!!! Coming Thursday before 10pm!!!

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited June 2017
    kle4 said:

    And maybe they'll be proved right in their focus this time. Or they may be so buoyed by how well they did last time that they assume it is working even if it isn't - they started the campaign talking about 10000 labour majorities under pressure, but that's just laughable if the Labour surge is even half true, and given May's ratings drop as well, I doubt it is entirely imaginary.
    The 10,000 stuff probably just spin. It does seem she keeps going to labour marginals.

    Remember last time, when the Tories got the wobbles they sent Cameron to sure up all sorts of places.

    Messina / Textor might have this totally wrong, but I don't think it is they haven't got a clue what they are doing. I am absolutely sure there is a plan based upon the polling numbers they have.

    As I said previous few days, the lack of panic says to me they think they are fine and YouGov are wrong*. Now the brain trust have made the big mistake of their whole careers, we will know in a few days.

    * I am sure there has been a surge, but their data could be saying it isn't anywhere near as big and / or in the wrong places.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Jonathan said:

    If May wins a big majority I'd keep Corbyn where he is for a year or two. Promote a range of talent to the shadow cabinet from across the party and see who has got it. Ie what Howard did.

    World Corbyn (or his puppeteers) wear that? You have insider insight so assume that it could happen but from what I've seen and read, I'm not sure.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Pulpstar said:

    Corbyn's latest rally in Birmingham Ladywood, where Labour got 73.6% of the vote last time.

    I can only think that they like videoing them and putting them online to show people that Corbyn is well liked, otherwise there is no point.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    GIN1138 said:

    She might be the leader but one... I.E. the one that takes over as LOTO after 2022 defeat.

    Then again, wouldn't it be good if she stayed in Scotland and over-saw a Con revival...
    Davidson can't leave Scotland without the total defeat of the SNP as that is her Unique Selling Point.

    If she runs away before the job is done her entire self image is destroyed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,337

    Oh, Corbyn in an extremely safe seat in Birmingham and May in Slough of all places.

    At the start of the campaign the Tories might have contemplated a near clean sweep of the South East (or at least of Labour there, given there is also the Green and Speaker seats), which includes Slough. Now I'd think they'd only pick up one of the four.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    sneak preview???
    Con ....

    No I better not .... :smile:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096
    JackW said:

    The PM ITV interview now.

    I'm not seeing a leader interview, more a soft focus puff piece with whimsical music.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767
    midwinter said:

    Exactly...the man made his party electable again and then managed a majority in 2015 based almost entirely on his personal popularity which was miles ahead of that of the Tory party. And then got crapped on by the headbangers at the first available opportunity. Which is why, although I hope the Tories win, many people won't be able to resist a secret smile if the right wing got outcrazied by Corbyn.
    an interesting view

    I rather thought Cameron crapped in his own nest

    he called a referendum he didnt need to call, lost it and then legged it

    I fail to see who else caused his downfall
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Fife NE . Not seen any O&S info
    Fife is barely North never mind far North!
  • you mean Farron is for the sack ?
    Farron may or may not still be leader, but amid the chaos and disappointment of Brexit, people will remember which party tried to prevent it. This will boost their popularity in the coming years, much as the opposition of the LDs to the Iraq invasion increased their popularity in the years that followed that disaster.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Does anyone know if the Scottish leaders' debate will be available to watch outside of Scotland?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    matt said:

    World Corbyn (or his puppeteers) wear that? You have insider insight so assume that it could happen but from what I've seen and read, I'm not sure.
    The left would be happy for Corbyn to stay whilst they regroup . There will be shadow cabinet vacancies. Corbyn has already shown a willingness to appoint those on the right.

    It could happen. The big question is what does Corbyn want. He might have had enough and after this campaign he can claim some achievements.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited June 2017
    HaroldO said:

    I can only think that they like videoing them and putting them online to show people that Corbyn is well liked, otherwise there is no point.
    It is absolutely this. All the Corbynistas on my social media are forever posting them.

    Clegg did this to a lesser extent when there was the Cleggasm, daily events packed with fresh faced students all excitedly saying "I agree with Nick".
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,127
    I've just realised (one of) the reasons I'd make a terrible party leader:

    When faced with a map of blue with an island of red, I'd focus on gaining that island of red regardless of the situation on the ground, just to make the map look neater. ;)

    Likewise, I'd quite like to have many strips coast-to-coast.

    Basically I'd develop a strategy to make a map look good ...
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    nichomar said:

    The problem on here is that you analyse things to death which is not what the voting population do. They make their minds up on one ore two issues which are important to them, if your lucky. The rest will vote on gut feel and be happy with their personal justification of their vote. If you want to make money try and put yourself into the skin of the average voter, think what they are going to do and bet accordingly. I've now had four bets lreading this thread, the best is 3/1. I will lose them all but it's only £30 but will make Friday more interesting.

    Good luck with your bets. Why are you so sure they won't come in?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited June 2017
    JackW said:

    Con ....

    No I better not .... :smile:
    I trust it will be accorded a thread header of its own! [comments turned off to avoid any riffraff responses]
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767

    Farron may or may not still be leader, but amid the chaos and disappointment of Brexit, people will remember which party tried to prevent it. This will boost their popularity in the coming years, much as the opposition of the LDs to the Iraq invasion increased their popularity in the years that followed that disaster.
    the LDs have totally miscalled what voters want

    the tragedy is they could have been replacing Labour, instead the greens will be replacing them
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm not seeing a leader interview, more a soft focus puff piece with whimsical music.
    It's a bit of both.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,562
    Has anyone got any ideas of what could be the 'Portillo Moment' of this election?

    I think Norfolk North could be entertaining at 5am (estimated) but with a Tory landslide or a Labour surge who could we be remembering fondly for the next 20 years?
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112

    an interesting view

    I rather thought Cameron crapped in his own nest

    he called a referendum he didnt need to call, lost it and then legged it

    I fail to see who else caused his downfall
    You think he wasn't significantly more popular than the Tory party in 2010 and 2015? Interested to hear who could have done better in either election...Anyway it's all irrelevant now.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    JackW said:

    Seem like cruel and unusual punishment to me.
    under lyme i presume
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited June 2017

    the LDs have totally miscalled what voters want

    the tragedy is they could have been replacing Labour, instead the greens will be replacing them
    It does seem that the public are democrats and now just want the government to get on with doing a deal. If they had gone with that and Tiny Tim hadn't got in a mess over the gays, the rest of the manifesto is perfectly fine.

    They should be winning sensible centre left types in droves, but everytime Tim is on the media he is either ranting about us starting war with Spain or unable just to say no, not a sin.

    I am going to guess it is also hard when you don't have a pool of well known MPs to go around and with the old student tuition fees / Corbgasm, they won't have many students to help.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,127

    an interesting view

    I rather thought Cameron crapped in his own nest

    he called a referendum he didnt need to call, lost it and then legged it

    I fail to see who else caused his downfall
    He had to call the referendum: the europhobes in his own party would have slaughtered him if he had not. The coalition gave him an excuse to delay it from the 2010 parliament; he had no such excuse in the 2015 parliament.

    Can you see a route by which Cameron could have not held a referendum in the 2015 parliament without splintering the party?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100

    I've just realised (one of) the reasons I'd make a terrible party leader:

    When faced with a map of blue with an island of red, I'd focus on gaining that island of red regardless of the situation on the ground, just to make the map look neater. ;)

    Likewise, I'd quite like to have many strips coast-to-coast.

    Basically I'd develop a strategy to make a map look good ...

    I think like you.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,248
    Jonathan said:

    Thersa May is in Slough. A good candidate for the most depressing sentence in the English language.
    I think "Jeremy Corbyn is in 10, Downing Street" might just beat it!
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    dr_spyn said:

    I thought that some commentators couldn't quite grasp why Cameron was spending so much time in The West during the last couple of days of the 2015 election. Then the results came in.

    This considered the 2010 GE. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/what-effect-do-leader-visits-to-constituencies-have-on-a-partys-vote/
    So the author of that blog post recones that a visit by a party leader adds 1.5% to a party's vote share, possible but I would be surprised if it was that big. If the party leader is visiting then the party thinks it is worth spending resorses there and will have put money in to mail shots posters and the like, the blog post does not shay haw these things have been separated out, suggesting that they have not considered them.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm not seeing a leader interview, more a soft focus puff piece with whimsical music.
    Agree, a bit reminiscent of "Kinnock: The Movie".
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100
    Mortimer said:

    Mrs May in Slough. Very interesting....

    And... that was the rally I was referring to last night.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613

    That's the thing with Abbott. It's hardly as if she does not have a reasonably sharp mind - she held her own on this week although Andrew Neil was not necessarily in seek and destroy mode.

    It is very disappointing that this gets made out to be a bullying thing. We expect our politicians to be well briefed on their area. This is the weakness of Corbyn his team does not reflect the best of labour, but the rump of willing to serve for him.

    The one that gets me is Angela Rayner - I've heard her use ickle for little in a news interview. This is the person who wants to be responsible for education standards.
    Back in the days when Militant ran Liverpool City Council, they put a school janitor in charge of the Education Dept. He famously said he would make education in the city "more better".
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    Roger said:

    Isn't it a mistake putting Boris in front of the cameras talking bout terrorism? Apart from sounding typically insincere everyone knows the Saudis are the chief sponsors of terrorism and Boris is in their pocket.

    "Everyone" doesn't know that and Boris is very popular.

    Its clear you live abroad, you have a very poor understanding of the British electorate.
  • BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391

    Farron may or may not still be leader, but amid the chaos and disappointment of Brexit, people will remember which party tried to prevent it. This will boost their popularity in the coming years, much as the opposition of the LDs to the Iraq invasion increased their popularity in the years that followed that disaster.
    As popular as Flat Earthers. Brexit will be reality by the time we get another election and we may even be able to see it as positive or negative by then. What people won't be discussing is whether it should've happened or not.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767

    He had to call the referendum: the europhobes in his own party would have slaughtered him if he had not. The coalition gave him an excuse to delay it from the 2010 parliament; he had no such excuse in the 2015 parliament.

    Can you see a route by which Cameron could have not held a referendum in the 2015 parliament without splintering the party?
    he could just have ignored them like he had for many years previous

    the Tories had lost most of the so called headbangers over the years
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited June 2017
    BigRich said:

    So the author of that blog post recones that a visit by a party leader adds 1.5% to a party's vote share, possible but I would be surprised if it was that big. If the party leader is visiting then the party thinks it is worth spending resorses there and will have put money in to mail shots posters and the like, the blog post does not shay haw these things have been separated out, suggesting that they have not considered them.
    Classic causality vs causation....No way a leader turning up on its own adds that much. If it was that easy, you would just have the leader visit every seat.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,801
    JackW said:

    Further to my contacts missive this morning.

    I've had eight full responses from the 15. Sadly one is poorly and another on holiday !! ... so five to come.

    Hoping to publish late tomorrow.

    Putting your hand on your ARSE and giving it a really good rub do you still think the landslide is on?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    I think "Jeremy Corbyn is in 10, Downing Street" might just beat it!
    It’s right up there with: Gordon Brown becomes head of the IMF….
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    kle4 said:

    At the start of the campaign the Tories might have contemplated a near clean sweep of the South East (or at least of Labour there, given there is also the Green and Speaker seats), which includes Slough. Now I'd think they'd only pick up one of the four.
    No chance in Hove now..the Tory candidate is rather interesting, really can't see Slough demographically and Oxford East is out of reach which leaves Test hopefully!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317

    I've just realised (one of) the reasons I'd make a terrible party leader:

    When faced with a map of blue with an island of red, I'd focus on gaining that island of red regardless of the situation on the ground, just to make the map look neater. ;)

    Likewise, I'd quite like to have many strips coast-to-coast.

    Basically I'd develop a strategy to make a map look good ...

    Cameron did his best to clean up all the yellow in the South last time. :p
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Pulpstar said:

    Corbyn's latest rally in Birmingham Ladywood, where Labour got 73.6% of the vote last time.

    interesting points

    https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/872140609137631233

    https://twitter.com/dizzy_thinks/status/872146992004300801

  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    No, I'd disagree.

    Neither PB nor UKPR are 'balanced' per se - this place leans right, and there it leans left.
    It might at the moment but outside of a GE it has regular right wing commentators .The owner tries to keep them in check with his comments policy on polls but not easy .
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100
    Jonathan said:

    Dunno. Far too early to say. Boris or Rudd to replace May?
    No, for Labour.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    I'm afraid I'm getting tired of this site does anyone believe they can shift opinion by posting their party view on here? No
    If you really were that committed should you not be out on the street or on a phone bank? Yes
    Are you really interested in other peoples views abou what they think is happening? No
    Back in 2008 and onwards it was civilized and respectful and showed insight into what people thought other people were thinking. Maybe on the 9th we can return to how it was but I'm afraid telling me farron is crap, Corbyn is a terrorist etc does not add to the advancement of human knowledge. Maybe I'm old fashioned but it's not asking too much to respect other people's point of view.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,307
    edited June 2017
    deleted.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    It does seem that the public are democrats and now just want the government to get on with doing a deal. If they had gone with that and Tiny Tim hadn't got in a mess over the gays, the rest of the manifesto is perfectly fine.

    They should be winning sensible centre left types in droves, but everytime Tim is on the media he is either ranting about us starting war with Spain or unable just to say no, not a sin.

    I am going to guess it is also hard when you don't have a pool of well known MPs to go around and with the old student tuition fees / Corbgasm, they won't have many students to help.
    I don't think legalising cannabis is a sensible idea particularly from a party that made a good impact in regards of mental health through Norman Lamb. That policy repelled me, the legalisation of Cannabis and I might have voted Lib Dem due to their position on Brexit.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,307
    dr_spyn said:

    One comment I read today was at least for a couple of hours they won't be out knocking on doors.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,127
    This campaign may have longstanding consequences. Corbyn has performed much better than expected; unless he goes down to an absolute trouncing then he'll survive; if he gets a higher percentage vote than Brown or Miliband then he's safe.

    Conversely, the perception (real, IMO) that May's performed badly in this campaign will have long-term repercussions. Unless she get a mahoosive majority, her MPs will be looking at her and wondering if she will be the person to lead them into another campaign in five years.

    So Corbyn's probably safe (unless he loses massively), whilst May's probably damaged (unless she wins big).
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100
    Following on from David Herdson's semi-implied tip of Hemsworth earlier, I've just got £10 on the Tories at 14/1 with William Hill.

    That seems a terrific value loser to me.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    I don't think legalising cannabis is a sensible idea particularly from a party that made a good impact in regards of mental health through Norman Lamb. That policy repelled me; the legalisation of Cannabis and I might have voted Lib Dem due to their position on Brexit.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    dr_spyn said:

    One comment I read today was at least they won't be out knocking on doors.
    indeed - see my coment at 7.46
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,127
    RobD said:

    Cameron did his best to clean up all the yellow in the South last time. :p
    Why do you think I like him? ;)
  • handandmousehandandmouse Posts: 213
    I strongly dislike Chuka Umunna. Reminds me of Blair in all the bad ways, smarmy and slimy. I can't see the membership going for him after his behaviour during the 2015 leadership campaign either.

    This campaign has been too dominated by McDonnell (who has all the same baggage as Corbyn plus a bit more) and Abbott (whose deficiencies have been on display for all to see this past fortnight) to make judgement of the real candidates possible.

    Previously I've found it hard to see past Clive Lewis, but he hasn't been prominent at all - presumably by design, and likely partly because he's had to focus on his local campaign.

    The one (!) other Shadow Cabinet member I've seen anything notable from is Barry Gardiner, who had a couple of impressive (though relatively minor) media appearances. His support for the Iraq War might well work against him, but if he can convince the members that he has learned from the party's mistakes in the early 2000s he just may be a dark horse contender.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    nichomar said:

    I'm afraid I'm getting tired of this site does anyone believe they can shift opinion by posting their party view on here? No
    If you really were that committed should you not be out on the street or on a phone bank? Yes
    Are you really interested in other peoples views abou what they think is happening? No
    Back in 2008 and onwards it was civilized and respectful and showed insight into what people thought other people were thinking. Maybe on the 9th we can return to how it was but I'm afraid telling me farron is crap, Corbyn is a terrorist etc does not add to the advancement of human knowledge. Maybe I'm old fashioned but it's not asking too much to respect other people's point of view.

    I'm not tired of it but I'm constantly amazed at the time people spend on here and the narrow circles people appear to move in. Some have absolutely no comprehension of why others vote the way they do.

    A regular poster proclaimed a few days ago that:

    "The people are crying out for a socialist brexit."

    WTF?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,017
    AndyJS said:

    The blog section of UKPR is very left-wing these days. The constituency section is more balanced.
    Just had a look at UKPR
    Uniform Swing projection
    Hung Parliament. Conservatives short by 1
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ukpr-projection-2
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767

    This campaign may have longstanding consequences. Corbyn has performed much better than expected; unless he goes down to an absolute trouncing then he'll survive; if he gets a higher percentage vote than Brown or Miliband then he's safe.

    Conversely, the perception (real, IMO) that May's performed badly in this campaign will have long-term repercussions. Unless she get a mahoosive majority, her MPs will be looking at her and wondering if she will be the person to lead them into another campaign in five years.

    So Corbyn's probably safe (unless he loses massively), whilst May's probably damaged (unless she wins big).

    This campaign may have longstanding consequences. Corbyn has performed much better than expected; unless he goes down to an absolute trouncing then he'll survive; if he gets a higher percentage vote than Brown or Miliband then he's safe.

    Conversely, the perception (real, IMO) that May's performed badly in this campaign will have long-term repercussions. Unless she get a mahoosive majority, her MPs will be looking at her and wondering if she will be the person to lead them into another campaign in five years.

    So Corbyn's probably safe (unless he loses massively), whilst May's probably damaged (unless she wins big).

    PMQs might not be the same
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,975
    Theresa doing well on ITV, although it is a bit tame,, but she does look like she is wearing a monacle on her right eye!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,667



    The 10,000 stuff probably just spin. It does seem she keeps going to labour marginals.

    Remember last time, when the Tories got the wobbles they sent Cameron to sure up all sorts of places.

    Messina / Textor might have this totally wrong, but I don't think it is they haven't got a clue what they are doing. I am absolutely sure there is a plan based upon the polling numbers they have.

    As I said previous few days, the lack of panic says to me they think they are fine and YouGov are wrong*. Now the brain trust have made the big mistake of their whole careers, we will know in a few days.

    It's worth considering what information they have that we don't. Their pollsters are no better than the public pollsters (indeed normally they use public pollsters), though they can use them to probe the effectiveness of specific messages (which at this point is more or less irrelevant - no time to launch a new message). They will have reports from the postal votes (yes, illegal and difficult, but now part of the normal landscape). That will give a fair idea...of the postal votes (20% of the total, mostly from 2 weeks ago). And they'll have impressions from canvassers, which I would not think would be very reliable guides.

    So they're a bit better off than we are in terms of information, but not magicians. My guess is that the PVs are telling them not to worry too much about losing many seats (which all the polls suggest is more or less correct), and also that sallies into places like Bolsover are just for publicity and to rattle opponents. That leaves the moderately achievable Labour marginals, which is where they're sending the troops.

    So it's not that mysterious really. They are taking a risk that the polls are overcompensating for lower Labour turnout and their marginals are more vulnerable than they think.They are fighting hard in the super-marginals like Croydon Central but relatively neglecting the ones needing a Labour swing of 3-4%. I think they'll feel that's an acceptable risk. In any case the die is now pretty much cast.

    On the Labour side, the organisation is still playing defence for the most part, but because the membership is much larger and Momentum has successfully mobilised a lot of their people, there are also enthusiastic local efforts going on in the Tory marginals. If Labour gets lucky with turnout, those could catch the Tories out in a string of fairly close seats. If we don't, well, it keeps the seats in play for next time. Meanwhile, Corbyn is best deployed speaking to big enthusiastic rallies with a fair chance of TV coverage - it's a waste to have him turning up to meet small random groups. I think he came to Broxtowe because the seat is basically Guardian vs Telegraph (indeed Sainsbury stocks more Morning Stars than Daily Expresses) so there are a lot of big fans and we were able to get a huge crowd.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    nichomar said:

    I'm afraid I'm getting tired of this site does anyone believe they can shift opinion by posting their party view on here? No
    If you really were that committed should you not be out on the street or on a phone bank? Yes
    Are you really interested in other peoples views abou what they think is happening? No
    Back in 2008 and onwards it was civilized and respectful and showed insight into what people thought other people were thinking. Maybe on the 9th we can return to how it was but I'm afraid telling me farron is crap, Corbyn is a terrorist etc does not add to the advancement of human knowledge. Maybe I'm old fashioned but it's not asking too much to respect other people's point of view.

    There can be another problem which is astroturfers desperately spinning the party line for an hour or so, presumably in an attempt to influence any lurking journalists.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,337
    nichomar said:

    I'm afraid I'm getting tired of this site does anyone believe they can shift opinion by posting their party view on here? No

    I heartily endorse your comments on respecting others point of view, but I think you may have a misconception about why most people engage in political debate online - it certainly has little to do with believing they can shift opinion or, in all honesty, engaging in actual political debate.

    It's relaxing (outside GE time), to get into the cut and thrust of things, but few opinions are changed, and few are even trying to make that happen.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Excellent performance by Theresa - I only saw the last 15 mins but was pleased that she managed to avoid answering a single question! :lol:
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    GIN1138 said:

    Putting your hand on your ARSE and giving it a really good rub do you still think the landslide is on?
    Cheeky ....

    The Conservative Bedwetting Index from this morning was Con Maj 104.

    It may or may not be amended after publication tomorrow evening .... :smiley:
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,127

    he could just have ignored them like he had for many years previous

    the Tories had lost most of the so called headbangers over the years

    When had he 'ignored them' ? The coalition made an EU referendum in the 2010 parliament impossible. He held one a little over a year after getting a working majority. Even then, europhobes on here were complaining that that was too long.

    And the headbangers like IDS, Fox, Jackson and others were still firmly agitating within the party.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,017
    Jonathan said:

    Thersa May is in Slough. A good candidate for the most depressing sentence in the English language.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slough_of_Despond
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    I strongly dislike Chuka Umunna. Reminds me of Blair in all the bad ways, smarmy and slimy. I can't see the membership going for him after his behaviour during the 2015 leadership campaign either.

    This campaign has been too dominated by McDonnell (who has all the same baggage as Corbyn plus a bit more) and Abbott (whose deficiencies have been on display for all to see this past fortnight) to make judgement of the real candidates possible.

    Previously I've found it hard to see past Clive Lewis, but he hasn't been prominent at all - presumably by design, and likely partly because he's had to focus on his local campaign.

    The one (!) other Shadow Cabinet member I've seen anything notable from is Barry Gardiner, who had a couple of impressive (though relatively minor) media appearances. His support for the Iraq War might well work against him, but if he can convince the members that he has learned from the party's mistakes in the early 2000s he just may be a dark horse contender.

    Interesting thing about Chuka is that he supported Ed's bid for the leadership back in 2010. He's always characterised as a Blairite, but I'd have thought if he was that to the right of the party he would have supported David instead.

    I also like Clive Lewis too. Would give the left of the party what they want in terms of socio-economic policies but none of the baggage of McDonnell and Corbyn. I'm not to the left as Lewis, but I'd happily vote for a Labour party under him.

    And no to Barry Gardiner. He's a great addition to the Shadow Cabinet though.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,127
    edited June 2017

    PMQs might not be the same
    *If* Corbyn avoids a trouncing, expect his MPs to show much more support than they have done.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    JackW said:

    Cheeky ....

    The Conservative Bedwetting Index from this morning was Con Maj 104.

    It may or may not be amended after publication tomorrow evening .... :smiley:
    :lol::lol::lol:

    The Ave_it projection will also be updated after meetings with my contacts tomorrow.

    That is beers somewhere in London with my Labour best friend and a possibly centrist person :lol:
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    It is absolutely this. All the Corbynistas on my social media are forever posting them.

    Clegg did this to a lesser extent when there was the Cleggasm, daily events packed with fresh faced students all excitedly saying "I agree with Nick".
    They are relying on social media replacing face to face meetings.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767

    When had he 'ignored them' ? The coalition made an EU referendum in the 2010 parliament impossible. He held one a little over a year after getting a working majority. Even then, europhobes on here were complaining that that was too long.

    And the headbangers like IDS, Fox, Jackson and others were still firmly agitating within the party.
    people always agitate within parties, Cameron had been ignoring his right wing since 2008 and there wasnt much they could do about it.

    he called the referendum simply because he thought he win it. The timing, agenda and rules were all to his choosing

  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,306
    Horrible PPB for the Tories. Sounds like it could have been written by Nigel farage. A call to arms for the Remainers to vote against her. She mentioned how wonderful Brexit was about 10 times.

    If she didn't vote Leave she's an accomplished hypocrite
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,941
    The really good news is all the shouting and campaigning will be over in 24 hours or so and then we can look forward to a non political thursday and then the 10.00pm exit poll
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited June 2017

    I strongly dislike Chuka Umunna. Reminds me of Blair in all the bad ways, smarmy and slimy. I can't see the membership going for him after his behaviour during the 2015 leadership campaign either.

    This campaign has been too dominated by McDonnell (who has all the same baggage as Corbyn plus a bit more) and Abbott (whose deficiencies have been on display for all to see this past fortnight) to make judgement of the real candidates possible.

    Previously I've found it hard to see past Clive Lewis, but he hasn't been prominent at all - presumably by design, and likely partly because he's had to focus on his local campaign.

    The one (!) other Shadow Cabinet member I've seen anything notable from is Barry Gardiner, who had a couple of impressive (though relatively minor) media appearances. His support for the Iraq War might well work against him, but if he can convince the members that he has learned from the party's mistakes in the early 2000s he just may be a dark horse contender.

    Go down the pub or wherever and listen quietly to what people say, don't challenge the and see who agrees, don't put them in a position they have to choose. You'll learn more by listening or if you really insist on defending a particular line who else supports you. Silence, as I've learnt over the years mean they disagree with you but for what ever reason they won't argue. You learn more by listening than preaching?wrong post but whatever it's still relevant
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    edited June 2017

    When had he 'ignored them' ? The coalition made an EU referendum in the 2010 parliament impossible. He held one a little over a year after getting a working majority. Even then, europhobes on here were complaining that that was too long.

    And the headbangers like IDS, Fox, Jackson and others were still firmly agitating within the party.
    He couldn't ignore them anyway before 2015. He'd already lost Reckless and Carswell
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    interesting points

    https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/872140609137631233

    https://twitter.com/dizzy_thinks/status/872146992004300801

    U have to think these rallies are a sign of enthusiasm. Like Trump's. There will be an increase of labour share on thursday and noth just amongst the young.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    nichomar said:

    I'm afraid I'm getting tired of this site does anyone believe they can shift opinion by posting their party view on here? No
    If you really were that committed should you not be out on the street or on a phone bank? Yes
    Are you really interested in other peoples views abou what they think is happening? No
    Back in 2008 and onwards it was civilized and respectful and showed insight into what people thought other people were thinking. Maybe on the 9th we can return to how it was but I'm afraid telling me farron is crap, Corbyn is a terrorist etc does not add to the advancement of human knowledge. Maybe I'm old fashioned but it's not asking too much to respect other people's point of view.

    It wasn't much more civilised back then. Lots of name calling at Brown (McDoom etc) and the Tim/Plato handbags
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100

    interesting points

    https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/872140609137631233

    https://twitter.com/dizzy_thinks/status/872146992004300801

    Not a cult.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,127

    people always agitate within parties, Cameron had been ignoring his right wing since 2008 and there wasnt much they could do about it.

    he called the referendum simply because he thought he win it. The timing, agenda and rules were all to his choosing
    Rubbish. If he hadn't called the EU referendum he'd have been deposed by the Europhobes within his own party. There were many mechanisms by which they could have done it: moving to UKIP and putting pressure on that way being one.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096
    nunu said:

    U have to think these rallies are a sign of enthusiasm. Like Trump's. There will be an increase of labour share on thursday and noth just amongst the young.
    These are nothing like the same scale or size or marginality of Trump's rallies.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    It's worth considering what information they have that we don't. Their pollsters are no better than the public pollsters (indeed normally they use public pollsters), though they can use them to probe the effectiveness of specific messages (which at this point is more or less irrelevant - no time to launch a new message). They will have reports from the postal votes (yes, illegal and difficult, but now part of the normal landscape). That will give a fair idea...of the postal votes (20% of the total, mostly from 2 weeks ago). And they'll have impressions from canvassers, which I would not think would be very reliable guides.

    So they're a bit better off than we are in terms of information, but not magicians. My guess is that the PVs are telling them not to worry too much about losing many seats (which all the polls suggest is more or less correct), and also that sallies into places like Bolsover are just for publicity and to rattle opponents. That leaves the moderately achievable Labour marginals, which is where they're sending the troops.
    ..
    Nick do you know if they get clickthrough / video feed information for heir digital efforts? I'm not sure labour are following the same methods.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    This campaign may have longstanding consequences. Corbyn has performed much better than expected; unless he goes down to an absolute trouncing then he'll survive; if he gets a higher percentage vote than Brown or Miliband then he's safe.

    Conversely, the perception (real, IMO) that May's performed badly in this campaign will have long-term repercussions. Unless she get a mahoosive majority, her MPs will be looking at her and wondering if she will be the person to lead them into another campaign in five years.

    So Corbyn's probably safe (unless he loses massively), whilst May's probably damaged (unless she wins big).

    Even if she wins big. Let's suppose there is a Tory landslide: who will credit Theresa May? What will she have a mandate for? Brexit means Brexit is a slogan, not a policy. Is anyone -- MP or voter -- any the wiser as to her vision, her programme, what Mayism is?

    No. Even if there is a landslide, Theresa May is toast and Crosby and Messina will be given as much loot and as many baubles as they wish for.
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    kle4 said:

    I heartily endorse your comments on respecting others point of view, but I think you may have a misconception about why most people engage in political debate online - it certainly has little to do with believing they can shift opinion or, in all honesty, engaging in actual political debate.

    It's relaxing (outside GE time), to get into the cut and thrust of things, but few opinions are changed, and few are even trying to make that happen.
    Some are trying to change opinion, not me of course.
    Yes you are wasting your time on here trying to change opinions. It has been an unpleasant forum recently but normal service will be resumed.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100

    an interesting view

    I rather thought Cameron crapped in his own nest

    he called a referendum he didnt need to call, lost it and then legged it

    I fail to see who else caused his downfall
    It was politically unsustainable for all three major parties to resist calls for significant reform of our EU membership, if they all wished to continue to remain as major parties.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Hello! After a hiatus of nearly 11 months, I think it's finally time to make a comeback.

    What a shower of an election campaign! The pitiful lack of political talent on display in all parties this election has been plain for all to see. Still it makes life interesting for political cognoscenti like ourselves on here.

    And I think we have an equal lack of talent amongst some opinion pollsters! YouGov's absolute nonsense of a seat like Canterbury being in play and the 18-24's turning out in numbers equivalent to the over 65's, plus all other constituency implausibilities has been unbelievably amateurish. Survation's sample in its last poll showing that 40% of the sample watched the QT debate last Friday, when we know it was about 10% of the electorate shows the dangers of a self selecting sample. And just how representative are you if you have the time (and inclination) to fill in all of YouGov's questions.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Interesting thing about Chuka is that he supported Ed's bid for the leadership back in 2010. He's always characterised as a Blairite, but I'd have thought if he was that to the right of the party he would have supported David instead.

    I also like Clive Lewis too. Would give the left of the party what they want in terms of socio-economic policies but none of the baggage of McDonnell and Corbyn. I'm not to the left as Lewis, but I'd happily vote for a Labour party under him.

    And no to Barry Gardiner. He's a great addition to the Shadow Cabinet though.
    I was all on the Clive Lewis train until he made an idiot of himself with the Article 50 nonsense.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    It's worth considering what information they have that we don't. Their pollsters are no better than the public pollsters (indeed normally they use public pollsters), though they can use them to probe the effectiveness of specific messages (which at this point is more or less irrelevant - no time to launch a new message). They will have reports from the postal votes (yes, illegal and difficult, but now part of the normal landscape). That will give a fair idea...of the postal votes (20% of the total, mostly from 2 weeks ago). And they'll have impressions from canvassers, which I would not think would be very reliable guides.

    So they're a bit better off than we are in terms of information, but not magicians. My guess is that the PVs are telling them not to worry too much about losing many seats (which all the polls suggest is more or less correct), and also that sallies into places like Bolsover are just for publicity and to rattle opponents. That leaves the moderately achievable Labour marginals, which is where they're sending the troops.

    So it's not that mysterious really. They are taking a risk that the polls are overcompensating for lower Labour turnout and their marginals are more vulnerable than they think.They are fighting hard in the super-marginals like Croydon Central but relatively neglecting the ones needing a Labour swing of 3-4%. I think they'll feel that's an acceptable risk. In any case the die is now pretty much cast.

    On the Labour side, the organisation is still playing defence for the most part, but because the membership is much larger and Momentum has successfully mobilised a lot of their people, there are also enthusiastic local efforts going on in the Tory marginals. If Labour gets lucky with turnout, those could catch the Tories out in a string of fairly close seats. If we don't, well, it keeps the seats in play for next time. Meanwhile, Corbyn is best deployed speaking to big enthusiastic rallies with a fair chance of TV coverage - it's a waste to have him turning up to meet small random groups. I think he came to Broxtowe because the seat is basically Guardian vs Telegraph (indeed Sainsbury stocks more Morning Stars than Daily Expresses) so there are a lot of big fans and we were able to get a huge crowd.
    You mention the increased number of Labour party (momentum) activists, which may be accurate, but do you know haw big, at the last election a lot was made of the 4 million conversations with voters that turned in to 5 million. I haven't heard or seen any equivalent this time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,337
    jayfdee said:

    Some are trying to change opinion, not me of course.
    Yes you are wasting your time on here trying to change opinions. It has been an unpleasant forum recently but normal service will be resumed.
    An outbreak of harmony yesterday discussing musical tastes. Storing up antipathy for the final days.

    Not a cult.
    Cults don't get 35+% in elections.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    The really good news is all the shouting and campaigning will be over in 24 hours or so and then we can look forward to a non political thursday and then the 10.00pm exit poll

    No we bloody can't. Thursday is a day for punting, during the day and all through the night.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    hunchman said:



    And I think we have an equal lack of talent amongst some opinion pollsters! YouGov's absolute nonsense of ... the 18-24's turning out in numbers equivalent to the over 65's

    Wrong. YouGov isn't showing that.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    nichomar said:

    I'm afraid I'm getting tired of this site does anyone believe they can shift opinion by posting their party view on here? No
    If you really were that committed should you not be out on the street or on a phone bank? Yes...

    That is a very insensitive question. Please remember that many Remainers read this site.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,562

    Even if she wins big. Let's suppose there is a Tory landslide: who will credit Theresa May? What will she have a mandate for? Brexit means Brexit is a slogan, not a policy. Is anyone -- MP or voter -- any the wiser as to her vision, her programme, what Mayism is?

    No. Even if there is a landslide, Theresa May is toast and Crosby and Messina will be given as much loot and as many baubles as they wish for.
    The Tories are ruthless with their leaders but they do give them time even if they snatch mediocraty from the jaws of a landslide. It'll be the brexit deal that decides whether TM gets another election.

    as for JC he'll probably stay until he wants to leave if he gets more votes than GB or EM.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767
    edited June 2017

    Rubbish. If he hadn't called the EU referendum he'd have been deposed by the Europhobes within his own party. There were many mechanisms by which they could have done it: moving to UKIP and putting pressure on that way being one.
    As the referendum showed the eurosceptics were in the minority. You constantly overestimate their pull and the desire of the conservatives to stick in government. Most of the defections had taken place over a long period of time. Even when carswell left there was no great movement to UKIP.

    The issue Cameron had is that he spent to much time on "detox" and drove away lots of his core supporters. That's why he failed to break 40% in any election, something Mrs May looks likelyto do.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    JackW said:

    Cheeky ....

    The Conservative Bedwetting Index from this morning was Con Maj 104.

    It may or may not be amended after publication tomorrow evening .... :smiley:
    Your esteemed ARSE was unfairly scapegoated and prematurely retired for the hot and mad schoolgirlish pash of yourself for Mrs. Clinton. This egregious bum ban must cease.
This discussion has been closed.