NatCen "disproving the polls", except those figures on young people's turnout seem pretty much in line with YouGov's polls:
Take our most recent poll. After we had weighted our sample, taken account of how likely people say they are to vote, and weighted down the answers of those people who didn’t vote last time, we were left with a sample that implies turnout of 51% among people under 25 and 75% among people aged 65+; a turnout gap of 24 points between young and old
Though NatCen was under 30s and over 60s - implying turnout differential extending at same overall average magnitude through ten more years of the age range - ie 25 to 29 and 60 to 64.
NatCen "disproving the polls", except those figures on young people's turnout seem pretty much in line with YouGov's polls:
Take our most recent poll. After we had weighted our sample, taken account of how likely people say they are to vote, and weighted down the answers of those people who didn’t vote last time, we were left with a sample that implies turnout of 51% among people under 25 and 75% among people aged 65+; a turnout gap of 24 points between young and old
Though NatCen was under 30s and over 60s - implying turnout differential extending at same overall average magnitude through ten more years of the age range - ie 25 to 29 and 60 to 64.
Sure, so maybe YouGov's turnout projections are slightly too optimistic for Labour, but it's not as drastically different as people here are saying, the NatCen turnout would only imply a 1 or 2% shift. The PB groupthink seems to have it that the polls are predicated on young people having 80% turnout or something, when that just isn't the case.
Find any Europhile Tory Minister and they'd tell you that independent of the state of play. Out of context this tells us nothing. Assuming the anonymous quote is even real.
Of course all the talk of terrible campaigns etc, the Tories from where they started could have been abject and still win by 15%, it's a question of how accurate April polling was and how much actually changes in a campaign. Those that hated Corbyn aren't that likely to have started loving him and May fans aren't that likely to have lost faith in the glare of the voting booth
NatCen "disproving the polls", except those figures on young people's turnout seem pretty much in line with YouGov's polls:
Take our most recent poll. After we had weighted our sample, taken account of how likely people say they are to vote, and weighted down the answers of those people who didn’t vote last time, we were left with a sample that implies turnout of 51% among people under 25 and 75% among people aged 65+; a turnout gap of 24 points between young and old
Though NatCen was under 30s and over 60s - implying turnout differential extending at same overall average magnitude through ten more years of the age range - ie 25 to 29 and 60 to 64.
Sure, so maybe YouGov's turnout projections are slightly too optimistic for Labour, but it's not as drastically different as people here are saying, the NatCen turnout would only imply a 1 or 2% shift. The PB groupthink seems to have it that the polls are predicated on young people having 80% turnout or something, when that just isn't the case.
Oh sure - I agree entirely - I think it's entirely possible that Con maj is on a knife-edge - which is why I've taken out substantial insurance against Con losing their majority.
Find any Europhile Tory Minister and they'd tell you that independent of the state of play. Out of context this tells us nothing. Assuming the anonymous quote is even real.
Stop being an idiot, Sam Coates is a top journalist.
Even Tory Leavers on here have been criticising the campaign.
NatCen "disproving the polls", except those figures on young people's turnout seem pretty much in line with YouGov's polls:
Take our most recent poll. After we had weighted our sample, taken account of how likely people say they are to vote, and weighted down the answers of those people who didn’t vote last time, we were left with a sample that implies turnout of 51% among people under 25 and 75% among people aged 65+; a turnout gap of 24 points between young and old
Though NatCen was under 30s and over 60s - implying turnout differential extending at same overall average magnitude through ten more years of the age range - ie 25 to 29 and 60 to 64.
Sure, so maybe YouGov's turnout projections are slightly too optimistic for Labour, but it's not as drastically different as people here are saying, the NatCen turnout would only imply a 1 or 2% shift. The PB groupthink seems to have it that the polls are predicated on young people having 80% turnout or something, when that just isn't the case.
Yes, I've been saying for a few days that the lead felt about 7 points, basically splitting the difference between the "surge what surge?" polls and the "of course we believe they'll all vote" polls. I suspect the Tories will do better the further north you go and vice versa.
But that's a guess!
It sounds plausible to me, but what scuppers it is going to be the lack of UNS, and also events in Scotland. The translation into seats is quite problematic. Neither side has what appears to be an "efficient vote" and the LDs are running 20 or so byelections.
My 76 seat Con majority prediction stands, but it could be much less. Corbynism is sweeping the nation, while May is still tying her laces.
I did the figurework on a middle way between Miliboredom and Youth Tsunami yesterday, and came out with 43.5%/36.5% and a Tory maj of 50. But I made no special adjustment for Scotland, where the Tories should do well, if not up to some of the more optimistic forecasts. I am going to call Tory seats of 355 which pushes the maj up to 60.
Find any Europhile Tory Minister and they'd tell you that independent of the state of play. Out of context this tells us nothing. Assuming the anonymous quote is even real.
Stop being an idiot, Sam Coates is a top journalist.
Even Tory Leavers on here have been criticising the campaign.
The idiotic position is believing statements without evidence. As far as reputation is concerned - past performance is not indicative of future returns. I'm not defending the abysmal campaign - I'm just saying this adds nothing of substance.
Have there been any celebrity endorsements, for any party, that didn't come from plonkers?
Still, I respect the one's who actually go out and pound them pavement for the party of choice at least.
The 'plonker' who inspired Live Aid and Band Aid?
I was speaking about his personality - achievements don't stop somebody being a plonker. That's like saying because someone has a PhD they cannot still be an idiot about other things, because clearly they must be smart.
Or that because Diane Abbott has a degree in History from Cambridge that she cannot be a fool.
Theresa May is in Cheltenham right now - at the Cheltenham Science Festival.
Pointer to Cheltenham being in play - good for LDs?
I'd have put down Bath as the easier of the two realistic Lib Dem SW targets personally.
There's a huge amount of tactical voting in Cheltenham; I often wondered (when I lived there) whether the Labour party realised how close it could get to winning the seat if it didn't stand by while the LibDems hoovered up their votes.
Theresa May is in Cheltenham right now - at the Cheltenham Science Festival.
Pointer to Cheltenham being in play - good for LDs?
I'd have put down Bath as the easier of the two realistic Lib Dem SW targets personally.
Demographically, yes, although Chelt has the former LibDem MP re-standing, whereas Bath has neither the former MP nor the candidate who was supposed to fight the snap election.
Find any Europhile Tory Minister and they'd tell you that independent of the state of play. Out of context this tells us nothing. Assuming the anonymous quote is even real.
Stop being an idiot, Sam Coates is a top journalist.
Even Tory Leavers on here have been criticising the campaign.
I don't doubt it's true. Remember there are people in the cabinet who have only fought 3 general elections, and you could definitely argue this was the worst of them. However I also expect it to be the best Tory result of the 3!
Find any Europhile Tory Minister and they'd tell you that independent of the state of play. Out of context this tells us nothing. Assuming the anonymous quote is even real.
Stop being an idiot, Sam Coates is a top journalist.
Even Tory Leavers on here have been criticising the campaign.
So how come May will have more MPs than Cameron and Osborne
May talking about whoever the government is Corbyn talking about what his secretary of state for health will do know day one. Corbyn knows he is done for.
Find any Europhile Tory Minister and they'd tell you that independent of the state of play. Out of context this tells us nothing. Assuming the anonymous quote is even real.
Stop being an idiot, Sam Coates is a top journalist.
Even Tory Leavers on here have been criticising the campaign.
So how come May will have more MPs than Cameron and Osborne
Theresa May is in Cheltenham right now - at the Cheltenham Science Festival.
Pointer to Cheltenham being in play - good for LDs?
I'd have put down Bath as the easier of the two realistic Lib Dem SW targets personally.
Demographically, yes, although Chelt has the former LibDem MP re-standing, whereas Bath has neither the former MP nor the candidate who was supposed to fight the snap election.
Well I'm on both ! And the Tories in the rest of the SW.
Find any Europhile Tory Minister and they'd tell you that independent of the state of play. Out of context this tells us nothing. Assuming the anonymous quote is even real.
Stop being an idiot, Sam Coates is a top journalist.
Even Tory Leavers on here have been criticising the campaign.
So how come May will have more MPs than Cameron and Osborne
do tell
They never were up against Jeremy Corbyn.
If you're happy, I'll bet you that Mrs May doesn't beat the 108 seat increase Cameron achieved at his first general election as leader?
It has been a terrible campaign... But in the end winning is all that counts... And Theresa is increasingly looking like a winner - So ultimately who care what the campaign was like?
The 1987 Con campaign was terrible as well but people only remember the Thatcher landslide victory,,,
Find any Europhile Tory Minister and they'd tell you that independent of the state of play. Out of context this tells us nothing. Assuming the anonymous quote is even real.
Stop being an idiot, Sam Coates is a top journalist.
Even Tory Leavers on here have been criticising the campaign.
So how come May will have more MPs than Cameron and Osborne
It has been a terrible campaign... But in the end winning is all that counts... And Theresa's is increasingly looking like a winner - So ultimately who care what the campaign was like?
The 1987 Con campaign was terrible as well but people only remember the Thatchers landslide victory,,,
I'm hoping one of her first acts is to re-jig her office and ditch a certain somebody. I also think that this election has almost guaranteed she won't fight again in 2022.
It has been a terrible campaign... But in the end winning is all that counts... And Theresa is increasingly looking like a winner - So ultimately who care what the campaign was like?
The 1987 Con campaign was terrible as well but people only remember the Thatchers landslide victory,,,
Now, maybe. At the time we can see that Mrs T was counting the days.
It has been a terrible campaign... But in the end winning is all that counts... And Theresa's is increasingly looking like a winner - So ultimately who care what the campaign was like?
The 1987 Con campaign was terrible as well but people only remember the Thatchers landslide victory,,,
I'm hoping one of her first acts is to re-jig her office and ditch a certain somebody. I also think that this election has almost guaranteed she won't fight again in 2022.
Well Amber Rudd looks a very obvious choice for next leader.
It has been a terrible campaign... But in the end winning is all that counts... And Theresa's is increasingly looking like a winner - So ultimately who care what the campaign was like?
The 1987 Con campaign was terrible as well but people only remember the Thatchers landslide victory,,,
I'm hoping one of her first acts is to re-jig her office and ditch a certain somebody. I also think that this election has almost guaranteed she won't fight again in 2022.
She won't fight 2022... But I think we'll all be ready for a change (Labour) then whoever is Con leader?
It has been a terrible campaign... But in the end winning is all that counts... And Theresa is increasingly looking like a winner - So ultimately who care what the campaign was like?
The 1987 Con campaign was terrible as well but people only remember the Thatcher landslide victory,,,
She was gone three years later. That will be May's fate, I'd have thought. The Tory challenge is to find a Major. The cupboard looks pretty bare right now.
I wonder how many of the 70 actually live in the constituency !
" Minutes before Mrs May and the Scottish Tory leader arrived at the business, an organiser told the group of around 70 people to give them an enthusiastic welcome. Supporters cheered and waved placards as requested as the pair arrived on the Tory Battle Bus in the Edinburgh North and Leith constituency. "
Find any Europhile Tory Minister and they'd tell you that independent of the state of play. Out of context this tells us nothing. Assuming the anonymous quote is even real.
Stop being an idiot, Sam Coates is a top journalist.
Even Tory Leavers on here have been criticising the campaign.
So how come May will have more MPs than Cameron and Osborne
Quite a contraction in the constituency betting markets today toward Labour.Cambridge has flip-flopped so my 4-1 on a Labour win is not looking too shabby.6 seats,Alyn and Deeside,Ealing Acton,Hove,Mansfield,Chorley and Penistone are all now showing Labour holds from Tory gains reducing Tory total to 362,assuming no Labour gains.Nearly all of the rest of the Tory gains have contracted in price eg Brentford and Isleworth has Lab at 5-4.However,Stoke South,Walsall South,Wolverhampton South West,Barrow,Wirral West and Halifax remain at odds of 3-1 or more and look out of reach.
Find any Europhile Tory Minister and they'd tell you that independent of the state of play. Out of context this tells us nothing. Assuming the anonymous quote is even real.
Stop being an idiot, Sam Coates is a top journalist.
Even Tory Leavers on here have been criticising the campaign.
So how come May will have more MPs than Cameron and Osborne
do tell
They never were up against Jeremy Corbyn.
If you're happy, I'll bet you that Mrs May doesn't beat the 108 seat increase Cameron achieved at his first general election as leader?
Chortle - Cameron was up against Brown and a shagged out Labour govt and still couldnt win
He couldnt whack EIC either
You dont think it might have been becasue he pissed off so many of his own supporters that they stopped voting blue ?
May's majority is what Cameron should have got in 2015
It has been a terrible campaign... But in the end winning is all that counts... And Theresa is increasingly looking like a winner - So ultimately who care what the campaign was like?
The 1987 Con campaign was terrible as well but people only remember the Thatcher landslide victory,,,
She was gone three years later. That will be May's fate, I'd have thought. The Tory challenge is to find a Major. The cupboard looks pretty bare right now.
She has no intention of fighting 2022 anyway.
Labour have a really good chance of winning on a "time for a change" ticket in 2022 - As long as they got for a sensible leader.
Find any Europhile Tory Minister and they'd tell you that independent of the state of play. Out of context this tells us nothing. Assuming the anonymous quote is even real.
Stop being an idiot, Sam Coates is a top journalist.
Even Tory Leavers on here have been criticising the campaign.
I don't doubt it's true. Remember there are people in the cabinet who have only fought 3 general elections, and you could definitely argue this was the worst of them. However I also expect it to be the best Tory result of the 3!
2010 and 2015 were *so* much better than this one. Maybe not in content, but DC was miles ahead in campaigning compared to May. However, he wasn't exactly loved by anyone, so he had to be.
Find any Europhile Tory Minister and they'd tell you that independent of the state of play. Out of context this tells us nothing. Assuming the anonymous quote is even real.
Stop being an idiot, Sam Coates is a top journalist.
Even Tory Leavers on here have been criticising the campaign.
So how come May will have more MPs than Cameron and Osborne
do tell
They never were up against Jeremy Corbyn.
If you're happy, I'll bet you that Mrs May doesn't beat the 108 seat increase Cameron achieved at his first general election as leader?
The par score in that respect would be 75 seats. It isn't right to ask for the same amount (108) as she has a lower ceiling of possible seats.
Find any Europhile Tory Minister and they'd tell you that independent of the state of play. Out of context this tells us nothing. Assuming the anonymous quote is even real.
Stop being an idiot, Sam Coates is a top journalist.
Even Tory Leavers on here have been criticising the campaign.
So how come May will have more MPs than Cameron and Osborne
do tell
They never were up against Jeremy Corbyn.
If you're happy, I'll bet you that Mrs May doesn't beat the 108 seat increase Cameron achieved at his first general election as leader?
Chortle - Cameron was up against Brown and a shagged out Labour govt and still couldnt win
He couldnt whack EIC either
You dont think it might have been becasue he pissed off so many of his own supporters that they stopped voting blue ?
May's majority is what Cameron should have got in 2015
It has been a terrible campaign... But in the end winning is all that counts... And Theresa is increasingly looking like a winner - So ultimately who care what the campaign was like?
The 1987 Con campaign was terrible as well but people only remember the Thatcher landslide victory,,,
She was gone three years later. That will be May's fate, I'd have thought. The Tory challenge is to find a Major. The cupboard looks pretty bare right now.
It has been a terrible campaign... But in the end winning is all that counts... And Theresa is increasingly looking like a winner - So ultimately who care what the campaign was like?
The 1987 Con campaign was terrible as well but people only remember the Thatcher landslide victory,,,
She was gone three years later. That will be May's fate, I'd have thought. The Tory challenge is to find a Major. The cupboard looks pretty bare right now.
Hammond? Decent cove, reasonably competent and as boring as a Communist Party Plenary Session.
Find any Europhile Tory Minister and they'd tell you that independent of the state of play. Out of context this tells us nothing. Assuming the anonymous quote is even real.
Stop being an idiot, Sam Coates is a top journalist.
Even Tory Leavers on here have been criticising the campaign.
So how come May will have more MPs than Cameron and Osborne
do tell
They never were up against Jeremy Corbyn.
If you're happy, I'll bet you that Mrs May doesn't beat the 108 seat increase Cameron achieved at his first general election as leader?
Chortle - Cameron was up against Brown and a shagged out Labour govt and still couldnt win
He couldnt whack EIC either
You dont think it might have been becasue he pissed off so many of his own supporters that they stopped voting blue ?
May's majority is what Cameron should have got in 2015
So that's a no then?
lol why would I accept a rigged bet ?
I will bet you that she gets more MPs than Cameron in 2015 - similar circumstances
Skinner really would be someone to stay up for; though if he's at risk then that puts a very odd chunk of South Yorkshire into play.
Really don't know what to make of these stories coming out of Labour and tory hqs. Bosolver would be huge.
But it makes yougov and survation horrendously wrong. I dont know.
I'd be surprised about Bolsover because although on Brexit grounds it ought to show potential for the Tories, Skinner was himself a Leaver. Whether he still has that much of a personal vote I don't know. You'd have thought that he should but if he's taken the place for granted and preferred to grandstand about his own personal hobby horses instead, it might have evaporated. I saw that happen with Marcus Fox pre-1997 (that wasn't so much about grandstanding as putting the 1922 and his directorships ahead of his constituents but the principle's the same).
What I will say is that the reports I've had back from our activists in Hemsworth have been very positive. They've not been terribly scientific because we don't have the base data to be (it's not been a target in living memory and so resources have in the past been pulled into Wakefield, Morley & Outwood and Dewsbury), but if Hemsworth is thought to be in play then Bolsover - which I'd assume is demographically similar - might well be too.
If Hemsworth is in play then we're not talking swings, we're talking paradigm shifts.
I've heard an extraordinary London rumour on the other side of this equation.
It has been a terrible campaign... But in the end winning is all that counts... And Theresa is increasingly looking like a winner - So ultimately who care what the campaign was like?
The 1987 Con campaign was terrible as well but people only remember the Thatcher landslide victory,,,
She was gone three years later. That will be May's fate, I'd have thought. The Tory challenge is to find a Major. The cupboard looks pretty bare right now.
It has been a terrible campaign... But in the end winning is all that counts... And Theresa is increasingly looking like a winner - So ultimately who care what the campaign was like?
The 1987 Con campaign was terrible as well but people only remember the Thatcher landslide victory,,,
She was gone three years later. That will be May's fate, I'd have thought. The Tory challenge is to find a Major. The cupboard looks pretty bare right now.
Amber Rudd.
Ruth Davidson...if they can get her into parliament
Find any Europhile Tory Minister and they'd tell you that independent of the state of play. Out of context this tells us nothing. Assuming the anonymous quote is even real.
Stop being an idiot, Sam Coates is a top journalist.
Even Tory Leavers on here have been criticising the campaign.
So how come May will have more MPs than Cameron and Osborne
do tell
They never were up against Jeremy Corbyn.
If you're happy, I'll bet you that Mrs May doesn't beat the 108 seat increase Cameron achieved at his first general election as leader?
Chortle - Cameron was up against Brown and a shagged out Labour govt and still couldnt win
He couldnt whack EIC either
You dont think it might have been becasue he pissed off so many of his own supporters that they stopped voting blue ?
May's majority is what Cameron should have got in 2015
So that's a no then?
lol why would I accept a rigged bet ?
I will bet you that she gets more MPs than Cameron in 2015 - similar circumstances
Find any Europhile Tory Minister and they'd tell you that independent of the state of play. Out of context this tells us nothing. Assuming the anonymous quote is even real.
Stop being an idiot, Sam Coates is a top journalist.
Even Tory Leavers on here have been criticising the campaign.
So how come May will have more MPs than Cameron and Osborne
do tell
They never were up against Jeremy Corbyn.
If you're happy, I'll bet you that Mrs May doesn't beat the 108 seat increase Cameron achieved at his first general election as leader?
Chortle - Cameron was up against Brown and a shagged out Labour govt and still couldnt win
He couldnt whack EIC either
You dont think it might have been becasue he pissed off so many of his own supporters that they stopped voting blue ?
May's majority is what Cameron should have got in 2015
So that's a no then?
lol why would I accept a rigged bet ?
I will bet you that she gets more MPs than Cameron in 2015 - similar circumstances
If you think Corbyn is similar to Ed Miliband then I'm shocked to learn you're a stoner.
Find any Europhile Tory Minister and they'd tell you that independent of the state of play. Out of context this tells us nothing. Assuming the anonymous quote is even real.
Stop being an idiot, Sam Coates is a top journalist.
Even Tory Leavers on here have been criticising the campaign.
So how come May will have more MPs than Cameron and Osborne
do tell
They never were up against Jeremy Corbyn.
If you're happy, I'll bet you that Mrs May doesn't beat the 108 seat increase Cameron achieved at his first general election as leader?
Chortle - Cameron was up against Brown and a shagged out Labour govt and still couldnt win
He couldnt whack EIC either
You dont think it might have been becasue he pissed off so many of his own supporters that they stopped voting blue ?
May's majority is what Cameron should have got in 2015
Brown had Scotland.
England and Wales are returning to two party politics after a 25 year break. Cameron would have benefited from that just as much as May.
Find any Europhile Tory Minister and they'd tell you that independent of the state of play. Out of context this tells us nothing. Assuming the anonymous quote is even real.
Stop being an idiot, Sam Coates is a top journalist.
Even Tory Leavers on here have been criticising the campaign.
So how come May will have more MPs than Cameron and Osborne
do tell
They never were up against Jeremy Corbyn.
If you're happy, I'll bet you that Mrs May doesn't beat the 108 seat increase Cameron achieved at his first general election as leader?
Chortle - Cameron was up against Brown and a shagged out Labour govt and still couldnt win
He couldnt whack EIC either
You dont think it might have been becasue he pissed off so many of his own supporters that they stopped voting blue ?
May's majority is what Cameron should have got in 2015
So that's a no then?
lol why would I accept a rigged bet ?
I will bet you that she gets more MPs than Cameron in 2015 - similar circumstances
If you think Corbyn is similar to Ed Miliband then I'm shocked to learn you're a stoner.
Labourites on here love to gloat that the GE was "unnecessary" or "a waste of time", etc. What they choose to overlook of course is that by winning on Thursday, it extends the Tories' term of office by a little over 2 years. Furthermore it provides a longer time frame for them to prepare to win again in 2022.
May extend the Tory Government, but will it be an extension of May's Premiership. Methinks the men in gray suits will be paying her a visit on Saturday.
It has been a terrible campaign... But in the end winning is all that counts... And Theresa is increasingly looking like a winner - So ultimately who care what the campaign was like?
The 1987 Con campaign was terrible as well but people only remember the Thatcher landslide victory,,,
She was gone three years later. That will be May's fate, I'd have thought. The Tory challenge is to find a Major. The cupboard looks pretty bare right now.
Amber Rudd.
A steady medium pacer. Would beat Corbyn. But who wouldn't?
Labourites on here love to gloat that the GE was "unnecessary" or "a waste of time", etc. What they choose to overlook of course is that by winning on Thursday, it extends the Tories' term of office by a little over 2 years. Furthermore it provides a longer time frame for them to prepare to win again in 2022.
May extend the Tory Government, but will it be an extension of May's Premiership. Methinks the men in gray suits will be paying her a visit on Saturday.
Find any Europhile Tory Minister and they'd tell you that independent of the state of play. Out of context this tells us nothing. Assuming the anonymous quote is even real.
Stop being an idiot, Sam Coates is a top journalist.
Even Tory Leavers on here have been criticising the campaign.
So how come May will have more MPs than Cameron and Osborne
do tell
They never were up against Jeremy Corbyn.
If you're happy, I'll bet you that Mrs May doesn't beat the 108 seat increase Cameron achieved at his first general election as leader?
Chortle - Cameron was up against Brown and a shagged out Labour govt and still couldnt win
He couldnt whack EIC either
You dont think it might have been becasue he pissed off so many of his own supporters that they stopped voting blue ?
May's majority is what Cameron should have got in 2015
Brown had Scotland.
England and Wales are returning to two party politics after a 25 year break. Cameron would have benefited from that just as much as May.
he didnt the last time, he scraped through in 2015
It has been a terrible campaign... But in the end winning is all that counts... And Theresa is increasingly looking like a winner - So ultimately who care what the campaign was like?
The 1987 Con campaign was terrible as well but people only remember the Thatcher landslide victory,,,
She was gone three years later. That will be May's fate, I'd have thought. The Tory challenge is to find a Major. The cupboard looks pretty bare right now.
Amber Rudd.
Ruth Davidson...if they can get her into parliament
She might be the leader but one... I.E. the one that takes over as LOTO after 2022 defeat.
Then again, wouldn't it be good if she stayed in Scotland and over-saw a Con revival...
Chatting to a friend this afternoon-he is well connected locally and nationally. Never seen him so utterly underwhelmed about a campaign before-really scathing of Timothy and Hill in particular.
It has been a terrible campaign... But in the end winning is all that counts... And Theresa is increasingly looking like a winner - So ultimately who care what the campaign was like?
The 1987 Con campaign was terrible as well but people only remember the Thatcher landslide victory,,,
She was gone three years later. That will be May's fate, I'd have thought. The Tory challenge is to find a Major. The cupboard looks pretty bare right now.
Amber Rudd.
A steady medium pacer. Would beat Corbyn. But who wouldn't?
The assumption seems to be Labour would have someone good? Who?! They will have far fewer MP's and none of the current mob are good enough to beat Corbyn or Ed Miliband
Thing about the Lib Dems, in Scotland at least, is that their vote distribution is so efficient a national poll doesn't indicate the number of seats they are likely to win. They have a concentration of votes in a half dozen seats that they may or may not win and are almost non-existent elsewhere.
Find any Europhile Tory Minister and they'd tell you that independent of the state of play. Out of context this tells us nothing. Assuming the anonymous quote is even real.
Stop being an idiot, Sam Coates is a top journalist.
Even Tory Leavers on here have been criticising the campaign.
So how come May will have more MPs than Cameron and Osborne
do tell
They never were up against Jeremy Corbyn.
If you're happy, I'll bet you that Mrs May doesn't beat the 108 seat increase Cameron achieved at his first general election as leader?
Chortle - Cameron was up against Brown and a shagged out Labour govt and still couldnt win
He couldnt whack EIC either
You dont think it might have been becasue he pissed off so many of his own supporters that they stopped voting blue ?
May's majority is what Cameron should have got in 2015
So that's a no then?
lol why would I accept a rigged bet ?
I will bet you that she gets more MPs than Cameron in 2015 - similar circumstances
If you think Corbyn is similar to Ed Miliband then I'm shocked to learn you're a stoner.
I think Corbyn has had a much better campaign than Ed did, but that's probably because expectations were much lower.
Find any Europhile Tory Minister and they'd tell you that independent of the state of play. Out of context this tells us nothing. Assuming the anonymous quote is even real.
Stop being an idiot, Sam Coates is a top journalist.
Even Tory Leavers on here have been criticising the campaign.
So how come May will have more MPs than Cameron and Osborne
do tell
They never were up against Jeremy Corbyn.
If you're happy, I'll bet you that Mrs May doesn't beat the 108 seat increase Cameron achieved at his first general election as leader?
Chortle - Cameron was up against Brown and a shagged out Labour govt and still couldnt win
He couldnt whack EIC either
You dont think it might have been becasue he pissed off so many of his own supporters that they stopped voting blue ?
May's majority is what Cameron should have got in 2015
So that's a no then?
lol why would I accept a rigged bet ?
I will bet you that she gets more MPs than Cameron in 2015 - similar circumstances
If you think Corbyn is similar to Ed Miliband then I'm shocked to learn you're a stoner.
Hard to compare as no-one has offered bribes to certain groups of (previously non-) voters on the industrial scale Corbyn has done.
It has been a terrible campaign... But in the end winning is all that counts... And Theresa is increasingly looking like a winner - So ultimately who care what the campaign was like?
The 1987 Con campaign was terrible as well but people only remember the Thatcher landslide victory,,,
She was gone three years later. That will be May's fate, I'd have thought. The Tory challenge is to find a Major. The cupboard looks pretty bare right now.
She has no intention of fighting 2022 anyway.
Labour have a really good chance of winning on a "time for a change" ticket in 2022 - As long as they got for a sensible leader.
Labour have the problem that absolutely irrespective of the scale of defeat on Thursday (if defeat it is) Corbyn personally has had a stupendously good campaign and looks set to stay in post, at the very minimum, until party conference this autumn, at which he can swing the reduction of plp support required for leadership nominations from 15% to 5%. 2022 then becomes a replay of tory drone vs lefty nutter. How does it play in 2022? Long Bailey or whoever won't have the baggage of IRA history Corbyn does, but will have his main problem of differentially non-turning-out support from the yoof.
2022 could easily be depressingly like 2017, in short.
Find any Europhile Tory Minister and they'd tell you that independent of the state of play. Out of context this tells us nothing. Assuming the anonymous quote is even real.
Stop being an idiot, Sam Coates is a top journalist.
Even Tory Leavers on here have been criticising the campaign.
So how come May will have more MPs than Cameron and Osborne
do tell
They never were up against Jeremy Corbyn.
If you're happy, I'll bet you that Mrs May doesn't beat the 108 seat increase Cameron achieved at his first general election as leader?
Chortle - Cameron was up against Brown and a shagged out Labour govt and still couldnt win
He couldnt whack EIC either
You dont think it might have been becasue he pissed off so many of his own supporters that they stopped voting blue ?
May's majority is what Cameron should have got in 2015
So that's a no then?
lol why would I accept a rigged bet ?
I will bet you that she gets more MPs than Cameron in 2015 - similar circumstances
If you think Corbyn is similar to Ed Miliband then I'm shocked to learn you're a stoner.
Chatting to a friend this afternoon-he is well connected locally and nationally. Never seen him so utterly underwhelmed about a campaign before-really scathing of Timothy and Hill in particular.
Since we're sharing, had an elected Tory tell me the other day the national lot 'don't know what the f*** they are doing'. Of course, he may be a bedwetter Tory.
Quite a contraction in the constituency betting markets today toward Labour.Cambridge has flip-flopped so my 4-1 on a Labour win is not looking too shabby.6 seats,Alyn and Deeside,Ealing Acton,Hove,Mansfield,Chorley and Penistone are all now showing Labour holds from Tory gains reducing Tory total to 362,assuming no Labour gains.Nearly all of the rest of the Tory gains have contracted in price eg Brentford and Isleworth has Lab at 5-4.However,Stoke South,Walsall South,Wolverhampton South West,Barrow,Wirral West and Halifax remain at odds of 3-1 or more and look out of reach.
A couple of weeks back we analysed Hampstead and Kilburn to death before concluding that the 4/1 against Labour was about right. It's now 1/2, so kudos to those that took the 4s. (I didn't.)
That Opinium survey still looks quite optimistic for Labour, and at least a point or two too low for the Tories. And if my theories about the implications of a return to two-party politics south of the Tweed are anywhere near accurate, the difference in terms of seat count between a 7% and a 9% lead could be very significant.
At this stage, I remain more convinced by the non-polling data suggesting a good night for the Tories. I just don't see, beyond (perhaps) Brighton Kemptown and one or two seats in London, where Labour is meant to make any gains from the Conservatives; the Conservatives, on the other hand, have a great many opportunities available.
Find any Europhile Tory Minister and they'd tell you that independent of the state of play. Out of context this tells us nothing. Assuming the anonymous quote is even real.
Stop being an idiot, Sam Coates is a top journalist.
Even Tory Leavers on here have been criticising the campaign.
So how come May will have more MPs than Cameron and Osborne
do tell
They never were up against Jeremy Corbyn.
If you're happy, I'll bet you that Mrs May doesn't beat the 108 seat increase Cameron achieved at his first general election as leader?
Chortle - Cameron was up against Brown and a shagged out Labour govt and still couldnt win
He couldnt whack EIC either
You dont think it might have been becasue he pissed off so many of his own supporters that they stopped voting blue ?
May's majority is what Cameron should have got in 2015
So that's a no then?
lol why would I accept a rigged bet ?
I will bet you that she gets more MPs than Cameron in 2015 - similar circumstances
If you think Corbyn is similar to Ed Miliband then I'm shocked to learn you're a stoner.
Not mutually exclusive of course. The polls could be right about Labour getting 36% and they could still be on course to lose lots of seats if they're piling up votes in the wrong places.
Find any Europhile Tory Minister and they'd tell you that independent of the state of play. Out of context this tells us nothing. Assuming the anonymous quote is even real.
Stop being an idiot, Sam Coates is a top journalist.
Even Tory Leavers on here have been criticising the campaign.
So how come May will have more MPs than Cameron and Osborne
do tell
They never were up against Jeremy Corbyn.
If you're happy, I'll bet you that Mrs May doesn't beat the 108 seat increase Cameron achieved at his first general election as leader?
Chortle - Cameron was up against Brown and a shagged out Labour govt and still couldnt win
He couldnt whack EIC either
You dont think it might have been becasue he pissed off so many of his own supporters that they stopped voting blue ?
May's majority is what Cameron should have got in 2015
Brown had Scotland.
England and Wales are returning to two party politics after a 25 year break. Cameron would have benefited from that just as much as May.
he didnt the last time, he scraped through in 2015
Ed Miliband, the second worst leader Labour has ever had, is a country mile ahead of Corbyn.
I wonder how many of the 70 actually live in the constituency !
" Minutes before Mrs May and the Scottish Tory leader arrived at the business, an organiser told the group of around 70 people to give them an enthusiastic welcome. Supporters cheered and waved placards as requested as the pair arrived on the Tory Battle Bus in the Edinburgh North and Leith constituency. "
NEW results from the NatCen Panel: 53% of under-30s say they're certain to vote, compared with 79% of the over-60s #GE2017
If thats true, Corbyn's screwed...
Even that 79% could mask normally Can't Be Arsed Tories being scared witless of Corbyn and getting off their arses in bigger numbers - and anti-Corbyn former Labour voters sitting it out...
There's also an assumption that under-30s who actually vote are going to vote for Corbyn. We don't know if that's true - RochdalePioneers and others will inadvertently get a lot of Conservative votes out - and we also don't know where they're distributed.
That Opinium survey still looks quite optimistic for Labour, and at least a point or two too low for the Tories. And if my theories about the implications of a return to two-party politics south of the Tweed are anywhere near accurate, the difference in terms of seat count between a 7% and a 9% lead could be very significant.
At this stage, I remain more convinced by the non-polling data suggesting a good night for the Tories. I just don't see, beyond (perhaps) Brighton Kemptown and one or two seats in London, where Labour is meant to make any gains from the Conservatives; the Conservatives, on the other hand, have a great many opportunities available.
Labour's second-best prospect from the Tories in London is Hendon with a 7.5% majority.
Find any Europhile Tory Minister and they'd tell you that independent of the state of play. Out of context this tells us nothing. Assuming the anonymous quote is even real.
Stop being an idiot, Sam Coates is a top journalist.
Even Tory Leavers on here have been criticising the campaign.
So how come May will have more MPs than Cameron and Osborne
do tell
They never were up against Jeremy Corbyn.
If you're happy, I'll bet you that Mrs May doesn't beat the 108 seat increase Cameron achieved at his first general election as leader?
Chortle - Cameron was up against Brown and a shagged out Labour govt and still couldnt win
He couldnt whack EIC either
You dont think it might have been becasue he pissed off so many of his own supporters that they stopped voting blue ?
May's majority is what Cameron should have got in 2015
Brown had Scotland.
England and Wales are returning to two party politics after a 25 year break. Cameron would have benefited from that just as much as May.
he didnt the last time, he scraped through in 2015
Ed Miliband, the second worst leader Labour has ever had, is a country mile ahead of Corbyn.
so how come Jezza is getting better polling than Ed ?
Comments
Even Tory Leavers on here have been criticising the campaign.
Con 36.9%
Lab 30.4%
UKIP 12.6%
Lib 7.9%
The latest Opinium says
Con +6.1%
Lab +5.6%
All taken from UKIP
Lib lose a few seats
SNP lose a couple
Otherwise no change.
Con majority around 15
I'm not defending the abysmal campaign - I'm just saying this adds nothing of substance.
https://twitter.com/TelegraphNews/status/872028830910660608
Or that because Diane Abbott has a degree in History from Cambridge that she cannot be a fool.
It's just Survation who have it as continuing.
Landslide by nosepeg
do tell
Corbyn talking about what his secretary of state for health will do know day one.
Corbyn knows he is done for.
That does look a bit high.
If you're happy, I'll bet you that Mrs May doesn't beat the 108 seat increase Cameron achieved at his first general election as leader?
The 1987 Con campaign was terrible as well but people only remember the Thatcher landslide victory,,,
Like watching chimps do brain surgery was my comment about a Corbyn gov.
" Minutes before Mrs May and the Scottish Tory leader arrived at the business, an organiser told the group of around 70 people to give them an enthusiastic welcome. Supporters cheered and waved placards as requested as the pair arrived on the Tory Battle Bus in the Edinburgh North and Leith constituency. "
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/tories-told-to-cheer-and-clap-during-theresa-may-s-visit-1-4466922
https://twitter.com/rawstory/status/872115594597998592
He couldnt whack EIC either
You dont think it might have been becasue he pissed off so many of his own supporters that they stopped voting blue ?
May's majority is what Cameron should have got in 2015
Labour have a really good chance of winning on a "time for a change" ticket in 2022 - As long as they got for a sensible leader.
June 9th - Amber Rudd COE
And that is her successor
I will bet you that she gets more MPs than Cameron in 2015 - similar circumstances
England and Wales are returning to two party politics after a 25 year break. Cameron would have benefited from that just as much as May.
The Good Lord predicting a Conservative majority of between 50 and 80 with a central forecast of 64!
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/06/ashcroft-model-update-potential-majorities-seat-seat-estimates/
Then again, wouldn't it be good if she stayed in Scotland and over-saw a Con revival...
Chatting to a friend this afternoon-he is well connected locally and nationally. Never seen him so utterly underwhelmed about a campaign before-really scathing of Timothy and Hill in particular.
2022 could easily be depressingly like 2017, in short.
"She'll get more MPs than Cameron"
"But! But! But! Reasons......."
I can envisage it happening, but the scenario to allow it seems pretty unlikely. Since we're sharing, had an elected Tory tell me the other day the national lot 'don't know what the f*** they are doing'. Of course, he may be a bedwetter Tory. Sounds very plausible. The landslide predictions are a long way gone from most pundits at least.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131146542
At this stage, I remain more convinced by the non-polling data suggesting a good night for the Tories. I just don't see, beyond (perhaps) Brighton Kemptown and one or two seats in London, where Labour is meant to make any gains from the Conservatives; the Conservatives, on the other hand, have a great many opportunities available.
D-day was June 6, 1944. And the weather was similar.
John Bull, Uncle Sam, and others.
Wherever they are, it is hard to see this sort of stage managed farce winning over local voters.
Cambridge 'Labour win chance 88%'
Norfolk North 'Conservative win chance 90%'
Carshalton 'Conservative win chance 93%'
28% Lib Dems
22% Plaid
22% Consrvatives
22% Labour
even the pessimistic view says he'll do no worse