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SystemSystem Posts: 12,598
edited June 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first of the final polls from the most accurate online firm from GE2015

Our final poll of the general election campaign gives the Conservatives a lead of 7 points over Labour #ge2017 https://t.co/B511292P2W pic.twitter.com/gMrz5dywHm

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,660
    First
  • RichardWitheyRichardWithey Posts: 17
    What a fantastic result for Mrs May. Well worth calling a GE for.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,965
    edited June 2017
    3rd like SNP
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,082
    My sense is that a 7% CON lead will be about where we finish up
    At GE2015 the Tories had a GB vote share lead of 6.6%.

    Could be a repeat of GE 2015, but with FPTP it's a lottery.
  • MagoshMagosh Posts: 8
    Not bad for Labour. Well within margin of error from the previous poll. If this is indeed the final result, I think they would be very happy with that.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    edited June 2017
    Roll on the exit poll. Not sure why everyone lauds Opinium. They ditched their own poll since it didn't follow the narrative in the run up to GE 2015.

    Edit: Sorry Opinium, that was Survation!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    RobD said:

    Roll on the exit poll. Not sure why everyone lauds Opinium. They ditched their own poll since it didn't follow the narrative in the run up to GE 2015.

    That was Survation, not Opinium
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,531
    According to OGH Opinium is a late LibDem surge...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    Roll on the exit poll. Not sure why everyone lauds Opinium. They ditched their own poll since it didn't follow the narrative in the run up to GE 2015.

    That was Survation, not Opinium
    Oh wow. My bad. I recall the pulled poll being the most accurate of the campaign, hence my post.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    There's an incident at Meadowhall apparently.
  • Alice_AforethoughtAlice_Aforethought Posts: 772
    Is that UKIP figure corrected for all the seats UKIP's not standing in?
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    I expect a marked swing back to manifest itself in these final hours.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    Pulpstar said:

    There's an incident at Meadowhall apparently.

    :(
  • MagoshMagosh Posts: 8
    RichardWithey said:

    What a fantastic result for Mrs May. Well worth calling a GE for.

    Really? If this is the result then it basically implies that the Tories only gain a net swing of 0.2% against Labour, despite gobbling up most of the UKIP vote (though that will likely help them in several marginal in the Midlands - but equally they may lose seats elsewhere). In other words, their UKIP gains have been neutralised elsewhere. It's for that reason that I'm sceptical that this will happen. Seems too good to be true for Labour.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    edited June 2017
    Hardly seems worth it, although it would reduce the SNP dominance to a small degree and be even crueller to the LDs, and a small majority increase.

    But on gut feel it 'looks' about possible assuming the Corbyn surge has not been a total nonsense, without being overblown. But then my gut is wrong about many things.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    Roll on the exit poll. Not sure why everyone lauds Opinium. They ditched their own poll since it didn't follow the narrative in the run up to GE 2015.

    That was Survation, not Opinium
    Oh wow. My bad. I recall the pulled poll being the most accurate of the campaign, hence my post.
    Adam from Opinium describes their final poll of GE2015 made Opinium the least inaccurate online pollster.

    They did get the London Mayoral and EUref right.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,194
    If the exit poll matches Opinium I can forget my early night. Too close to call?

    (I mean between Tory majority and Hung, obvs)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,782
    .........."At GE 2015 a lead of 6.6%"

    If that was last time and Opinium is correct then the election will have been a complete waste of everybody's time.

    Neither will it have given Mrs May a better negotiating position with regard to Brexit.

    More likely there will be a leadership challenge.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    Pulpstar said:

    There's an incident at Meadowhall apparently.

    There were armed coppers there the other day when I was there.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    The Opinium poll at least looks plausible compared to others, turnout will be a key factor tho.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    That 5% UKIP share looks to me as if it might be a reservoir of hidden Conservative support.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    Roger said:

    .........."At GE 2015 a lead of 6.6%"

    If that was last time and Opinium is correct then the election will have been a complete waste of everybody's time.

    Neither will it have given Mrs May a better negotiating position with regard to Brexit.

    More likely there will be a leadership challenge.

    I feel like the mechanics of that would be a little difficult, if she increase her majority - but if it is only by a little, then I think they'll carry on, but the men in grey suits will be working to ensure May is out once Brexit is done and dusted.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    AlastairMeeks said:

    That 5% UKIP share looks to me as if it might be a reservoir of hidden Conservative support.

    AlastairMeeks said:

    That 5% UKIP share looks to me as if it might be a reservoir of hidden Conservative support.

    You had previously been pretty bullish on Tory chances IIRC, predicting a large majority - have you reassessed your view at all in light of the polling surge from Labour, out of interest?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,022
    AlastairMeeks said:

    That 5% UKIP share looks to me as if it might be a reservoir of hidden Conservative support.

    The biggest unknown in this campaign is what happens when a Kipper goes to the polling station and finds no Kipper on the ballot paper.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    edited June 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    Roll on the exit poll. Not sure why everyone lauds Opinium. They ditched their own poll since it didn't follow the narrative in the run up to GE 2015.

    That was Survation, not Opinium
    Oh wow. My bad. I recall the pulled poll being the most accurate of the campaign, hence my post.
    Adam from Opinium describes their final poll of GE2015 made Opinium the least inaccurate online pollster.

    They did get the London Mayoral and EUref right.
    I can't even use the tired and emotional excuse, it's only 9am here :D
  • isamisam Posts: 42,271
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    That 5% UKIP share looks to me as if it might be a reservoir of hidden Conservative support.

    The biggest unknown in this campaign is what happens when a Kipper goes to the polling station and finds no Kipper on the ballot paper.
    Does this poll factor in the lack of seats UKIP are standing in?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,736
    Yes, I've been saying for a few days that the lead felt about 7 points, basically splitting the difference between the "surge what surge?" polls and the "of course we believe they'll all vote" polls. I suspect the Tories will do better the further north you go and vice versa.

    But that's a guess!
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    "The FAKE MSM is working so hard trying to get me not to use Social Media."

    Does anyone still think Donald Trump isn't wacko?

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/872059997429022722
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    Roger said:

    .........."At GE 2015 a lead of 6.6%"

    If that was last time and Opinium is correct then the election will have been a complete waste of everybody's time.

    Neither will it have given Mrs May a better negotiating position with regard to Brexit.

    More likely there will be a leadership challenge.

    Share and lead matter.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    edited June 2017
    SandyRentool said:

    If the exit poll matches Opinium I can forget my early night. Too close to call?

    (I mean between Tory majority and Hung, obvs)

    Your not going to get a hung parliament when one party is on 43% and the other is on 36% lol!

    Very comfortable Con majority of around 50-60 IMO
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/guardianheather/status/872119768744177664
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    edited June 2017
    GIN1138 said:

    SandyRentool said:

    If the exit poll matches Opinium I can forget my early night. Too close to call?

    (I mean between Tory majority and Hung, obvs)

    Your not going to get a hung parliament when one party is on 43% lol!
    Depends where the other party is. And what is happening in the marginals. Seems unlikely, even if the Tories are piling up votes in some safe seats, given Labour are also probably piling up votes in safe seats.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2017
    NickPalmer said:

    Yes, I've been saying for a few days that the lead felt about 7 points, basically splitting the difference between the "surge what surge?" polls and the "of course we believe they'll all vote" polls. I suspect the Tories will do better the further north you go and vice versa.

    But that's a guess!

    7% lead seems about right to me too, maybe a tad better than that for the Tories on the night, but I really don't agree that the Tories are on for markedly better results in the North than they are nationwide. Things feel like they've changed a lot up here since the beginning of the campaign.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Off topic - has anyone been watching the Election Spy 'comedy' on just before Newsnight? Is it my imagination or would their writers be better off just using some of the banter here as a script?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,271
    edited June 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    That 5% UKIP share looks to me as if it might be a reservoir of hidden Conservative support.

    The biggest unknown in this campaign is what happens when a Kipper goes to the polling station and finds no Kipper on the ballot paper.
    Nuttall has said today vote Conservative if no Kipper on the ballot paper (except Hoey and the Luton Labour bloke)
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    The 20,000 fewer police issue is going to really hurt the Conservatives in the last couple of days of this campaign . They will poll lower than the 43% in this poll and deserve to.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/guardianheather/status/872119768744177664

    Popcorn on standby.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,534
    Stick 5% on the Tories, knock 5% off Labour.....

    (Oh, what previous thread?...... ;-) )
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    That 5% UKIP share looks to me as if it might be a reservoir of hidden Conservative support.

    The biggest unknown in this campaign is what happens when a Kipper goes to the polling station and finds no Kipper on the ballot paper.
    Nuttall has said today vote Conservative if no Kipper on the ballot paper (except Hoey and the Luton Labour bloke)
    Unhelpful for Hoey to be honest !
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    MarkSenior said:

    The 20,000 fewer police issue is going to really hurt the Conservatives in the last couple of days of this campaign . They will poll lower than the 43% in this poll and deserve to.

    To who's benefit? Late LD surge?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    MarqueeMark said:

    Stick 5% on the Tories, knock 5% off Labour.....

    (Oh, what previous thread?...... ;-) )

    That would make it near to the midpoint of the local election model which also has a midpoint of 122 majority.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    MarkSenior said:

    The 20,000 fewer police issue is going to really hurt the Conservatives in the last couple of days of this campaign . They will poll lower than the 43% in this poll and deserve to.

    Even when the independent reviewer of terrorism legislation said that the 20k figure was focussing on the wrong issue when it comes to helping prevent terrorism?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    edited June 2017
    MarkSenior said:

    The 20,000 fewer police issue is going to really hurt the Conservatives in the last couple of days of this campaign .

    Perhaps... But as ever the question is whether people believe Jezza (and Johnny Mac and Diane) would do better,
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    What sort of majority are we looking at under UNS (which I know might not be relevant this election) with that Opinium poll?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,534
    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    That 5% UKIP share looks to me as if it might be a reservoir of hidden Conservative support.

    The biggest unknown in this campaign is what happens when a Kipper goes to the polling station and finds no Kipper on the ballot paper.
    Nuttall has said today vote Conservative if no Kipper on the ballot paper (except Hoey and the Luton Labour bloke)
    Are there actually Kippers standing against Leave Tories?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    GIN1138 said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The 20,000 fewer police issue is going to really hurt the Conservatives in the last couple of days of this campaign .

    Perhaps... But as ever the question is whether people believe Jezza (and Johnny Mac and Diane) would do better,
    If they are the answer I do not want to know the question.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Pulpstar said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Stick 5% on the Tories, knock 5% off Labour.....

    (Oh, what previous thread?...... ;-) )

    That would make it near to the midpoint of the local election model which also has a midpoint of 122 majority.
    48% 31% 6% will i think be the final result FWIW
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    GIN1138 said:

    SandyRentool said:

    If the exit poll matches Opinium I can forget my early night. Too close to call?

    (I mean between Tory majority and Hung, obvs)

    Your not going to get a hung parliament when one party is on 43% and the other is on 36% lol!

    Very comfortable Con majority of around 50-60 IMO
    There was only a majority of 20 in 1992, even with the Tories on 42% and Labour on 34%!!

    The groupthink on here in recent weeks....
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/guardianheather/status/872119768744177664

    That is odd.

    What is odd is that the NatCen survey that yoof don't vote is based on self-reported voting intention, which is exactly what the pollsters are using to say this time it's different. Which set of self-reports should we believe?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,486
    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The 20,000 fewer police issue is going to really hurt the Conservatives in the last couple of days of this campaign . They will poll lower than the 43% in this poll and deserve to.

    Even when the independent reviewer of terrorism legislation said that the 20k figure was focussing on the wrong issue when it comes to helping prevent terrorism?
    There you go again. Using facts to counter Mark's wishful thinking. Don't you know how unfair that is?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,271
    edited June 2017
    MarqueeMark said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    That 5% UKIP share looks to me as if it might be a reservoir of hidden Conservative support.

    The biggest unknown in this campaign is what happens when a Kipper goes to the polling station and finds no Kipper on the ballot paper.
    Nuttall has said today vote Conservative if no Kipper on the ballot paper (except Hoey and the Luton Labour bloke)
    Are there actually Kippers standing against Leave Tories?
    Dagenham, Clacton and Thanet South off the top of my head, probably a few more
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/guardianheather/status/872119768744177664

    'Some' responses from before manifestos. It sounds more plausible, and is the same point made by some pollsters - either there really has been a massive and unprecedented change in behaviour and some are picking it up, or those polls picking it up are wrong and behaviour has not changed that much.

    I struggle to see, given what feels like very real enthusiasm by the young for Corbyn - and the much closer distance from the last elections, meaning some who didn't last time will still be smarting and might remember too this time - that turnout will not be up to some degree, but around half sounds right.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/guardianheather/status/872119768744177664

    That is odd.

    What is odd is that the NatCen survey that yoof don't vote is based on self-reported voting intention, which is exactly what the pollsters are using to say this time it's different. Which set of self-reports should we believe?
    Do you have to sign up for NatCen surveys? This could be the political engagement divide.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,486
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    That 5% UKIP share looks to me as if it might be a reservoir of hidden Conservative support.

    The biggest unknown in this campaign is what happens when a Kipper goes to the polling station and finds no Kipper on the ballot paper.
    Nuttall has said today vote Conservative if no Kipper on the ballot paper (except Hoey and the Luton Labour bloke)
    Unhelpful for Hoey to be honest !
    He should have added Frank Field who was also Labour Leave as well as a great asset to Parliament and the country.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The 20,000 fewer police issue is going to really hurt the Conservatives in the last couple of days of this campaign . They will poll lower than the 43% in this poll and deserve to.

    Even when the independent reviewer of terrorism legislation said that the 20k figure was focussing on the wrong issue when it comes to helping prevent terrorism?
    What any one says is irrelevant , the 20,000 figure has sunk into voters minds even those not politically engaged . They know the figure and they know who created it and are not interested in the arguments for and against .
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Cyan said:

    "The FAKE MSM is working so hard trying to get me not to use Social Media."

    Does anyone still think Donald Trump isn't wacko?

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/872059997429022722

    If I was looking for someone to give an opinion on someone's mental health, you wouldn't be the first port of call. Check your beam, my friend.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SELL LIB DEMS !!!!!

    https://twitter.com/libdems/status/872120525774082049
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    NickPalmer said:

    Yes, I've been saying for a few days that the lead felt about 7 points, basically splitting the difference between the "surge what surge?" polls and the "of course we believe they'll all vote" polls. I suspect the Tories will do better the further north you go and vice versa.

    But that's a guess!

    It sounds plausible to me, but what scuppers it is going to be the lack of UNS, and also events in Scotland. The translation into seats is quite problematic. Neither side has what appears to be an "efficient vote" and the LDs are running 20 or so byelections.

    My 76 seat Con majority prediction stands, but it could be much less. Corbynism is sweeping the nation, while May is still tying her laces.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Danny565 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    SandyRentool said:

    If the exit poll matches Opinium I can forget my early night. Too close to call?

    (I mean between Tory majority and Hung, obvs)

    Your not going to get a hung parliament when one party is on 43% and the other is on 36% lol!

    Very comfortable Con majority of around 50-60 IMO
    There was only a majority of 20 in 1992, even with the Tories on 42% and Labour on 34%!!

    The groupthink on here in recent weeks....
    the lib dems got 23% in 1992 hence only 20 majority for the cons
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Labourites on here love to gloat that the GE was "unnecessary" or "a waste of time", etc. What they choose to overlook of course is that by winning on Thursday, it extends the Tories' term of office by a little over 2 years. Furthermore it provides a longer time frame for them to prepare to win again in 2022.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,534
    isam said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    That 5% UKIP share looks to me as if it might be a reservoir of hidden Conservative support.

    The biggest unknown in this campaign is what happens when a Kipper goes to the polling station and finds no Kipper on the ballot paper.
    Nuttall has said today vote Conservative if no Kipper on the ballot paper (except Hoey and the Luton Labour bloke)
    Are there actually Kippers standing against Leave Tories?
    Dagenham, Clacton and Thanet South off the top of my head, probably a few more
    Thanks. Thanet South you can kinda understand!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    kle4 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    That 5% UKIP share looks to me as if it might be a reservoir of hidden Conservative support.

    AlastairMeeks said:

    That 5% UKIP share looks to me as if it might be a reservoir of hidden Conservative support.

    You had previously been pretty bullish on Tory chances IIRC, predicting a large majority - have you reassessed your view at all in light of the polling surge from Labour, out of interest?
    If you're lucky I might find the time to make a proper prediction.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    peter_from_putney said:

    Labourites on here love to gloat that the GE was "unnecessary" or "a waste of time", etc. What they choose to overlook of course is that by winning on Thursday, it extends the Tories' term of office by a little over 2 years. Furthermore it provides a longer time frame for them to prepare to win again in 2022.

    After this campaign, I'd suggest they need every minute to prepare!
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Roger said:

    .........."At GE 2015 a lead of 6.6%"

    If that was last time and Opinium is correct then the election will have been a complete waste of everybody's time.

    Neither will it have given Mrs May a better negotiating position with regard to Brexit.

    More likely there will be a leadership challenge.

    There isn't a uniform swing though. There's plenty of anecdotal evidence that the swing in the North and Midlands is greater, bringing with it a couple of dozen Labour seats. (Unfortunately for Labour its more favourable position in the South and London will bring it almost no extra seats at all.) Then there'll also be half a dozen Tory gains in Scotland. So the Tory majority will go up to 70 or so even with such a seemingly poor result. May will be safe - for the time being.

    As regards the government and Brexit, this election has been a mistake. May and co. have received quite a battering, and such self-inflicted wounds aren't worth the increased majority. The "mandate for Brexit" is a hostage to fortune. Now, instead of a somewhat sympathetic public wishing her well, many people will have her negotiations under the microscope, looking out for every slip-up.

    Brexit may or may not turn out to be okay for the UK. But in the short-term it's a bit of a poisoned chalice. I expect that Labour, under a new leader, will be well ahead in the polls by the time the Brexit deal is signed.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2017
    kjohnw said:

    Danny565 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    SandyRentool said:

    If the exit poll matches Opinium I can forget my early night. Too close to call?

    (I mean between Tory majority and Hung, obvs)

    Your not going to get a hung parliament when one party is on 43% and the other is on 36% lol!

    Very comfortable Con majority of around 50-60 IMO
    There was only a majority of 20 in 1992, even with the Tories on 42% and Labour on 34%!!

    The groupthink on here in recent weeks....
    the lib dems got 23% in 1992 hence only 20 majority for the cons
    The point is that people keep saying that if the Tories poll in the 40s then that will somehow yield them a big majority guaranteed, even though there's plenty of examples where a party doing that didn't get a big majority (or in some cases no majority at all).
  • isamisam Posts: 42,271
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    That 5% UKIP share looks to me as if it might be a reservoir of hidden Conservative support.

    The biggest unknown in this campaign is what happens when a Kipper goes to the polling station and finds no Kipper on the ballot paper.
    Nuttall has said today vote Conservative if no Kipper on the ballot paper (except Hoey and the Luton Labour bloke)
    Unhelpful for Hoey to be honest !
    He should have added Frank Field who was also Labour Leave as well as a great asset to Parliament and the country.
    "Mr Nuttall said: “For all of the criticism I have of Mrs May, who I believe has been complacent at best during her time as Home Secretary regarding these issues, they pale into complete insignificance to the prospect of a Jeremy Corbyn or a Diane Abbott government.

    “It would be reckless in my opinion to have as Prime Minister in these dangerous times someone who has opposed every single piece of anti-terrorism legislation put forward.

    “Someone who has gone out of his way to befriend terror groups in both Northern Ireland and the Middle East.

    “Someone who has opposed allowing the police to shoot to kill when confronted with armed terrorists.

    He then added: “I want to make it clear – if there is a Ukip candidate, go out and vote Ukip to ensure that these policies are enacted.

    “However, I have no hesitation in saying that out of more than 200 constituencies where Ukip has stood aside in this election there are only a handful where I would recommend a Labour vote"

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3737825/paul-nuttall-urges-public-to-vote-tactically-and-support-theresa-may-because-jeremy-corbyn-cant-be-trusted-on-brexit/
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,965
    Police confirm the armed police incident near Meadowhall is not connected to terrorism.
  • TravelgallTravelgall Posts: 33
    Magosh said:

    Not bad for Labour. Well within margin of error from the previous poll. If this is indeed the final result, I think they would be very happy with that.

    Pretty good for the Tories too. As Corbyn has said he isn't going the post election Labour spats will continue for quite some time.

  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited June 2017
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/guardianheather/status/872119768744177664

    That is odd.

    What is odd is that the NatCen survey that yoof don't vote is based on self-reported voting intention, which is exactly what the pollsters are using to say this time it's different. Which set of self-reports should we believe?
    Unlike pollsters NatCen and other researchers use expensive randomised sampling, the Rolls-Royce of polling rather than the Trabant. It means their sample should be more representative of the population.
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    Vox pop from WE pub! 3 out of 3 canvessed, inc the Romanian barmaid who has UK nationality, say "vote Conservative"!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    edited June 2017
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The 20,000 fewer police issue is going to really hurt the Conservatives in the last couple of days of this campaign . They will poll lower than the 43% in this poll and deserve to.

    Even when the independent reviewer of terrorism legislation said that the 20k figure was focussing on the wrong issue when it comes to helping prevent terrorism?
    There you go again. Using facts to counter Mark's wishful thinking. Don't you know how unfair that is?
    In fairness to Mark, that does not really counter his point, at least in terms of it hurting the Tories. It might not be deserved for a terrorism event to make the point on police cuts hurt them more when the 20k figure would not have helped, but that doesn't mean it won't hurt them. Parties get publicly damaged by things unfairly all the time (and get away with things unfairly too).

    Certainly Labour have been going hard on it, so they think it will hurt the Tories.

    I cannot say I have heard much of that point being raised, apart from the day after by my corbynista family members, but I can see it. Though I feel 42-43 is about as low as the Tories will go.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    edited June 2017
    peter_from_putney said:

    Labourites on here love to gloat that the GE was "unnecessary" or "a waste of time", etc. What they choose to overlook of course is that by winning on Thursday, it extends the Tories' term of office by a little over 2 years. Furthermore it provides a longer time frame for them to prepare to win again in 2022.

    plus it gives TM a legitimate mandate, both for herself and Brexit ' No deal is better than a bad deal' and leaving the single market which the limp dems said she had no mandate for. They can say this no more after Thursday. She has seen off her enemies, plus hopefully the SNP can no longer demand an Indyref2 before 2022
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,782
    edited June 2017
    Mohammed in the form of Trumps two sons have spoken. "It's time our government did something to protect the public".

    Can you imagine having two sons more ignorant than him?
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    AlastairMeeks said:

    That 5% UKIP share looks to me as if it might be a reservoir of hidden Conservative support.

    Certainly UKIP's support seems to have expanded by around 1% or so over recent weeks, which just might change the result in a very few seats where they are not standing, or even where they are.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    RobD said:

    MarkSenior said:

    The 20,000 fewer police issue is going to really hurt the Conservatives in the last couple of days of this campaign . They will poll lower than the 43% in this poll and deserve to.

    Even when the independent reviewer of terrorism legislation said that the 20k figure was focussing on the wrong issue when it comes to helping prevent terrorism?
    There you go again. Using facts to counter Mark's wishful thinking. Don't you know how unfair that is?
    That's not really the point -- whether or not it would make a difference to the terrorists, the question for Thursday is will it make a difference to voters -- not should it, but will it? And my humble submission is that what the independent reviewer thinks will make not a blind bit of difference to the man in the Clapham polling station.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    edited June 2017
    isam said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    That 5% UKIP share looks to me as if it might be a reservoir of hidden Conservative support.

    The biggest unknown in this campaign is what happens when a Kipper goes to the polling station and finds no Kipper on the ballot paper.
    Nuttall has said today vote Conservative if no Kipper on the ballot paper (except Hoey and the Luton Labour bloke)
    Unhelpful for Hoey to be honest !
    He should have added Frank Field who was also Labour Leave as well as a great asset to Parliament and the country.
    "Mr Nuttall said: “For all of the criticism I have of Mrs May, who I believe has been complacent at best during her time as Home Secretary regarding these issues, they pale into complete insignificance to the prospect of a Jeremy Corbyn or a Diane Abbott government.

    “It would be reckless in my opinion to have as Prime Minister in these dangerous times someone who has opposed every single piece of anti-terrorism legislation put forward.

    “Someone who has gone out of his way to befriend terror groups in both Northern Ireland and the Middle East.

    “Someone who has opposed allowing the police to shoot to kill when confronted with armed terrorists.

    He then added: “I want to make it clear – if there is a Ukip candidate, go out and vote Ukip to ensure that these policies are enacted.

    “However, I have no hesitation in saying that out of more than 200 constituencies where Ukip has stood aside in this election there are only a handful where I would recommend a Labour vote"

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3737825/paul-nuttall-urges-public-to-vote-tactically-and-support-theresa-may-because-jeremy-corbyn-cant-be-trusted-on-brexit/
    I don't know how I feel, agreeing with him. (Not every word, obviously)
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    NatCen‏VERIFIED ACCOUNT @NatCen

    NatCen Retweeted FT Westminster

    NEW results from the NatCen Panel: 53% of under-30s say they're certain to vote, compared with 79% of the over-60s #GE2017

    If thats true, Corbyn's screwed...
  • glwglw Posts: 10,470
    edited June 2017
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    What is odd is that the NatCen survey that yoof don't vote is based on self-reported voting intention, which is exactly what the pollsters are using to say this time it's different. Which set of self-reports should we believe?

    Self reporting is the problem full stop. We know people forget, we know people claim to have backed winners in the past, we know they deceive, we know they overstate certainty to vote, and we know they change their minds. Polls would work a lot better if we surveyed robots rather than people.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    brokenwheel said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/guardianheather/status/872119768744177664

    That is odd.

    What is odd is that the NatCen survey that yoof don't vote is based on self-reported voting intention, which is exactly what the pollsters are using to say this time it's different. Which set of self-reports should we believe?
    Unlike pollsters NatCen and other researchers use expensive randomised sampling, the Rolls Royce rather than the Trabant. It means their sample should be more representative of the population.
    "randomised sampling" This means they WILL be right.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    AlastairMeeks said:

    kle4 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    That 5% UKIP share looks to me as if it might be a reservoir of hidden Conservative support.

    AlastairMeeks said:

    That 5% UKIP share looks to me as if it might be a reservoir of hidden Conservative support.

    You had previously been pretty bullish on Tory chances IIRC, predicting a large majority - have you reassessed your view at all in light of the polling surge from Labour, out of interest?
    If you're lucky I might find the time to make a proper prediction.
    A tease I see.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Scott_P said:

    SELL LIB DEMS !!!!!

    https://twitter.com/libdems/status/872120525774082049

    For a momentI thought that Theresa May, with the same hair, shoulders and thousand yard stare.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Slackbladder said:

    NatCen‏VERIFIED ACCOUNT @NatCen

    NatCen Retweeted FT Westminster

    NEW results from the NatCen Panel: 53% of under-30s say they're certain to vote, compared with 79% of the over-60s #GE2017

    If thats true, Corbyn's screwed...

    That WILL be correct. They've used randomised samples.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Scott_P said:

    SELL LIB DEMS !!!!!

    https://twitter.com/libdems/status/872120525774082049

    " Rockstar ". give me a break. Joe Dolce rocked harder than that ramshackle oaf.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2017
    Slackbladder said:

    NatCen‏VERIFIED ACCOUNT @NatCen

    NatCen Retweeted FT Westminster

    NEW results from the NatCen Panel: 53% of under-30s say they're certain to vote, compared with 79% of the over-60s #GE2017

    If thats true, Corbyn's screwed...

    Even YouGov's poll results reflect turnout along these lines: the compiler of their Election Model said on PB's podcast last week (doesn't anyone listen to this?!?!?) that their projections were weighted to youth turnout of 50%, and elderly turnout of 75%.
  • hardpawnhardpawn Posts: 8
    Due to the distribution of votes, a Tory lead is not of constant value. 7% lead is much better for them at 43% rather than 36%. Presumably this is because Tories suffer more from tactical voting especially evident in 2010, & 2005 when Blair got a landslide at 35% with a 2.5% lead.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/guardianheather/status/872119768744177664

    Sounds like we may have another Cleggasm where the 18-24 vote fails to materialise.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    Scott_P said:

    SELL LIB DEMS !!!!!

    https://twitter.com/libdems/status/872120525774082049

    Have there been any celebrity endorsements, for any party, that didn't come from plonkers?

    Still, I respect the one's who actually go out and pound them pavement for the party of choice at least.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,321
    South Yorks Police.

    https://twitter.com/syptweet/status/872119828424925184

    Meadowhall arrest firearms offence, not terrorism.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Pulpstar said:

    Slackbladder said:

    NatCen‏VERIFIED ACCOUNT @NatCen

    NatCen Retweeted FT Westminster

    NEW results from the NatCen Panel: 53% of under-30s say they're certain to vote, compared with 79% of the over-60s #GE2017

    If thats true, Corbyn's screwed...

    That WILL be correct. They've used randomised samples.
    How does it compare to the certainty to vote elements of various pollsters' models though? AIUI they are non-linear so accepting this is probably correct, what adjustments to headline polls would result? Presumably could go either way.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Scott_P said:

    SELL LIB DEMS !!!!!

    https://twitter.com/libdems/status/872120525774082049

    For a momentI thought that Theresa May, with the same hair, shoulders and thousand yard stare.
    Good differential diagnosis, chief.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    Slackbladder said:

    NatCen‏VERIFIED ACCOUNT @NatCen

    NatCen Retweeted FT Westminster

    NEW results from the NatCen Panel: 53% of under-30s say they're certain to vote, compared with 79% of the over-60s #GE2017

    If thats true, Corbyn's screwed...

    Prepare for Twitter meltdown.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Danny565 said:

    Slackbladder said:

    NatCen‏VERIFIED ACCOUNT @NatCen

    NatCen Retweeted FT Westminster

    NEW results from the NatCen Panel: 53% of under-30s say they're certain to vote, compared with 79% of the over-60s #GE2017

    If thats true, Corbyn's screwed...

    Even YouGov's poll results reflect turnout along these lines: the compiler of their Election Model said on PB's podcast last week (doesn't anyone listen to this?!?!?) that their projections were weighted to youth turnout of 50%, and elderly turnout of 75%.
    Elder turnout will be considerably higher than 75% IMO, particularly given dislike of Corbyn and interest in Brexit. There is a lot more reason for the over 65s to vote than in 2015 given the options, and suspect May is more popular than DC or EM and Corbyn is less popular than either.

    Given the extra number of over 65s compared to 18-24s I'd assume that every 1% increase above 75% for the oldens is worth at least 3% for any turnout over 50% for the youngsters.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2017
    NatCen "disproving the polls", except those figures on young people's turnout seem pretty much in line with YouGov's polls:

    Take our most recent poll. After we had weighted our sample, taken account of how likely people say they are to vote, and weighted down the answers of those people who didn’t vote last time, we were left with a sample that implies turnout of 51% among people under 25 and 75% among people aged 65+; a turnout gap of 24 points between young and old

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/01/pollsters-experimental-election/
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,207
    If the Scottish sub-sample is anything like correct, the SNP post-election party will be something to behold!
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    The opinium net leadership rating compared gives it to May by 12% this is similar to others who no matter if they show a 4% lead or 11% all show a 11,12,13% lead on leadership for TMay.

    Think I will stick my neck out and say it will by a Tory lead of 11% on Thursday, with them overpreforming UNS.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,534
    Slackbladder said:

    NatCen‏VERIFIED ACCOUNT @NatCen

    NatCen Retweeted FT Westminster

    NEW results from the NatCen Panel: 53% of under-30s say they're certain to vote, compared with 79% of the over-60s #GE2017

    If thats true, Corbyn's screwed...

    Even that 79% could mask normally Can't Be Arsed Tories being scared witless of Corbyn and getting off their arses in bigger numbers - and anti-Corbyn former Labour voters sitting it out...
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    Theresa May is in Cheltenham right now - at the Cheltenham Science Festival.

    Pointer to Cheltenham being in play - good for LDs?
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Ukip: I expect the terrorist attacks will have shored up the Ukip vote where they are standing. So I'd estimate that they'll get about 50% of what they got last time in those seats, though it'll be less than that in marginals where the local Tory campaign has been good at squeezing Ukip voters.

    LibDems: They'll have fewer votes than 2015. In theory they should have some bounceback from 2015 but they're being squeezed to within an inch of their lives, especially in the Lab-Con marginals. They'll pick up a couple of seats in Scotland, a couple in London (though sadly not Richmond Park), and lose a couple in England, leaving them about where they are now.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    The question is not necessarily which polling company is right / wrong. There may be an argument that any of them that get close do so by luck, not clever data collection and manipulation.

    The real questions may be:
    1) has any party run a successful election campaign?
    2) can polling pick up the results of a successful campaign?

    In 2015 it was retrospectively acknowledged that the Tory party did know what they were doing, where they were campaigning and how to contact and attract voters where they needed them. This happened below (most of) the polling radar and mainstream media attention. Before the election the wisdom of the decisions made by Tory HQ were questioned.

    In 2017 it is widely acknowledged that the Tory party have run a woeful campaign, and Labour much better with Corbyn in his traditional element and a lot of the time enjoying his 40 year old arguments. What we don't know, with the exception of many unverified tweets and comments over the last 24 hours, is if either party has repeated the 2015 trick of running a successful campaign under the radar of the media and polling industry.

    On Friday we will find the answer to 1) if the Tory party exceed expectations we will assume they have 'the data', and we will also find out the answer to 2), but may not know if the best polling is by luck or methodology.

    There is a part of me that suspects that a modern election is won and lost in a way that isn't picked up by traditional methods and is not won by traditional methods.

    Posters, Rallies and set pieces appear impotent to change the vote, as do media, shouty radio shows and possibly even debates - Jo average isn't watching for 2 hours of dry politics.

    Is the campaign won or lost in private where we don't see all the action and pollsters can't find the information?

    It would makes forecasting in the future difficult.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    Slackbladder said:

    NatCen‏VERIFIED ACCOUNT @NatCen

    NatCen Retweeted FT Westminster

    NEW results from the NatCen Panel: 53% of under-30s say they're certain to vote, compared with 79% of the over-60s #GE2017

    If thats true, Corbyn's screwed...

    Well that's a surprise...
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