politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s polls range from ComRes 12% CON lead to Survation’s
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s polls range from ComRes 12% CON lead to Survation’s 1%
It a massive night of polls with the election just five days away. So far we’ve had four:
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Survation is the only poll to be carried out post QT.0
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Third!0
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15 mins to YouGov. The excitement!0
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Fourth like UKIP0
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So it is either too close to call or a landslide...0
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Well that cleared that up then. Without polls it would be confusing.0
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yes but pre QT mrs may was accused of running chicken from the debates which you would have thought should have depressed her pollingTheScreamingEagles said:Survation is the only poll to be carried out post QT.
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But if 75% of it's respondents claim to have seen the debate - then their panel has been gamed.TheScreamingEagles said:Survation is the only poll to be carried out post QT.
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This is madness. Utter madness.FrancisUrquhart said:So it is either too close to call or a landslide...
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History tells me that when the polls say conflicting things, it's better to side with those that show higher Tory leads, I'm afraid. (And I mean I am literally afraid, personally)
Frankly, it would be wise for all LAB supporters to assume they'll lose badly, since that it is historically the most likely outcome. Anything more would be a nice surprise on the night.
Seeing who is right and who is wrong will be very interesting, though.0 -
Well they didn'tMarqueeMark said:
But if 75% of it's respondents claim to have seen the debate - then their panel has been gamed.TheScreamingEagles said:Survation is the only poll to be carried out post QT.
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The difference between ComRes and Survation is well above MOE. The pollsters are once again asking us to make a judgement as to who has the best adjustments, rather than pointing us towards an accurate forecast of the result.0
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Thread - Polls All Over Shop - DiscussTheScreamingEagles said:Spare a thought for the poor sod who has two write the Sunday morning thread.
He likes to write said thread between 9pm and 11pm on Saturday nights0 -
It was around 3m I think.SeanT said:
With a huge over-sampling of people who watched/were aware of, the QT showTheScreamingEagles said:Survation is the only poll to be carried out post QT.
Most of my educated, politically aware friends had no idea QT was on, or what it meant.
How many saw it? 3m? 4? Multiply by 3 to include those aware of it. That's still less than a third of the electorate.0 -
Yeah, even if the 72% is watched or heard of it, the poll claims 40% watched some of it live, which is rubbish.Rhubarb said:0 -
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/871097589982273536SeanT said:
With a huge over-sampling of people who watched/were aware of, the QT showTheScreamingEagles said:Survation is the only poll to be carried out post QT.
Most of my educated, politically aware friends had no idea QT was on, or what it meant.
How many saw it? 3m? 4? Multiply by 3 to include those aware of it. That's still less than a third of the electorate.0 -
I reckon this is the sort of polling we'd have got in reverse if Gordon Brown had called an election in the autumn of 20070
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That would work except for the fact that the pollsters are this time adjusting their raw data to allow for that. Or so they hope.Magosh said:History tells me that when the polls say conflicting things, it's better to side with those that show higher Tory leads, I'm afraid. (And I mean I am literally afraid, personally)
Frankly, it would be wise for all LAB supporters to assume they'll lose badly, since that it is historically the most likely outcome. Anything more would be a nice surprise on the night.
Seeing who is right and who is wrong will be very interesting, though.0 -
I love politics. The ultimate soap opera where you the viewer can affect the ending to the story. Will St Theresa be allowed to complete her negotiations with the rector for a new steeple for the village church? Will Mad Jeremy succeed in snatching the deeds to the church so that it can be swept away allowing a yoghurt knitting co-operative to set up shop in a new eco-factory? Its up to you...0
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They are trying to do that each time with their adjustments. It's not a new thing for this election.IanB2 said:
That would work except for the fact that the pollsters are this time adjusting their raw data to allow for that. Or so they hope.Magosh said:History tells me that when the polls say conflicting things, it's better to side with those that show higher Tory leads, I'm afraid. (And I mean I am literally afraid, personally)
Frankly, it would be wise for all LAB supporters to assume they'll lose badly, since that it is historically the most likely outcome. Anything more would be a nice surprise on the night.
Seeing who is right and who is wrong will be very interesting, though.0 -
EMA model after Orb Con maj 40
Con 44% Lab 36%0 -
I am still very bemused by the Tory reaction or lack of it. If Messina was getting too close to call in his polls you would have thought they would be calling in every favour, every Tory that is popular would be spending every waking minute in every marginal seat and the Sun / Mail / Telegraph would be getting inundated with useful stories.
That or Kim Jong May doesn't want to listen.0 -
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"DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN"JackW said:
Thread - Polls All Over Shop - DiscussTheScreamingEagles said:Spare a thought for the poor sod who has two write the Sunday morning thread.
He likes to write said thread between 9pm and 11pm on Saturday nights0 -
I inadvertently chose the tailend of the last thread to delurk:
Whilst I live in hope that last night’s debate may help burst the Corbyn bubble, I am bewildered at the total lack of questioning by anyone of the credentials to govern of three long-term, serially rebellious, career politician backbenchers with no ministerial or shadow ministerial experience between them prior to Corbyn’s appointment. How can these people possibly be entrusted with running the country? What experience can they draw on? Do they have the remotest inkling of how government really works? Nor has there been anything approaching a forensic examination of their magic money tree manifesto. Lacklustre does not even begin to describe the Conservative campaign, but I find it inconceivable that 35% - 40% of the electorate can truly want this toxic trio at the helm.0 -
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I wonder if YouGov and Survation are wondering "HAVE our panels been bent out of shape by Momentum? Are they smarter than us?"0
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The best thing to do is take an average of the polls. So far today it's a Tory lead of 7%.
Scrap that: 8% with ICM included.0 -
Survation precise figs.
Con 39.8
Lab 39.1
& all important mcsubsample
SNP 43.8
SCon 20.7
SLab 27.9
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Little change from last time. PB Tory bedwetting subsides, at least until the YouGov poll anyway....Scott_P said:0 -
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Not so much as now. When they publish the raw data we see that the published headline VI is sometimes miles different.RobD said:
They are trying to do that each time with their adjustments. It's not a new thing for this election.IanB2 said:
That would work except for the fact that the pollsters are this time adjusting their raw data to allow for that. Or so they hope.Magosh said:History tells me that when the polls say conflicting things, it's better to side with those that show higher Tory leads, I'm afraid. (And I mean I am literally afraid, personally)
Frankly, it would be wise for all LAB supporters to assume they'll lose badly, since that it is historically the most likely outcome. Anything more would be a nice surprise on the night.
Seeing who is right and who is wrong will be very interesting, though.0 -
ICM is out - its all over, lads.0
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I've not actually looked at raw/adjusted figures for previous elections, but I recall the MORI headline figures always being significantly different from their "all expressing an opinion" numbers.IanB2 said:
Not so much as now. When they publish the raw data we see that the published headline VI is sometimes miles different.RobD said:
They are trying to do that each time with their adjustments. It's not a new thing for this election.IanB2 said:
That would work except for the fact that the pollsters are this time adjusting their raw data to allow for that. Or so they hope.Magosh said:History tells me that when the polls say conflicting things, it's better to side with those that show higher Tory leads, I'm afraid. (And I mean I am literally afraid, personally)
Frankly, it would be wise for all LAB supporters to assume they'll lose badly, since that it is historically the most likely outcome. Anything more would be a nice surprise on the night.
Seeing who is right and who is wrong will be very interesting, though.0 -
ICM is
Cons 45
Lab 34
LD 9
UKIP 5
Greens 30 -
ICM says chill. Still the gold standard in my book.0
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I wonder if ICM will be in, even more closely with the Tory 'herd" of polls, while there might be even also more shock poll on the other side before the election, possibly showing a level result , or a 1% Labour lead.
Prediction - Tory maj of 15-40.0 -
This is just utter bonkers....I don't care what the result is, the polling companies are going to need another inquiry. There is no way one should lot should be consistently getting 1-4% and the other 11-12%.0
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TBF there was a fair bit of MLP hopeful wanking until quite late on.SeanT said:
On the other hand it makes our elections WAY more interesting than the tedious, regimented French processions of Gallic voter robots who can be predicted to the third decimal place, with great accuracy, and all tension ends three weeks before the vote.bookseller said:
This is madness. Utter madness.FrancisUrquhart said:So it is either too close to call or a landslide...
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New @ICMResearch poll for The Sun on Sunday
Con 45 (nc) Lab 34 (+1) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 5 (nc)
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3716473/theresa-may-on-course-to-win-general-election-by-60-seats-despite-labour-narrowing-lead/0 -
I doubt QT did much to change minds, though perhaps it stalled some Corbyn momentum.TheScreamingEagles said:Survation is the only poll to be carried out post QT.
I agree in the old thread with the comment suggesting the survation poll is designed to get Mail readers out to vote, I dont think a survey taken across one morning is the optimum way to do things, but if the Mail on Sunday wanted to cause worry this is perfect.
Similarly kudos to another poster suggesting survation had 4 polls with different results unpublished from 2015, so obvious and probably so true! Why i did i never think of that. Gold standard my arse.0 -
"polls", on the other side, I should say there.WhisperingOracle said:I wonder if ICM will be in, even more closely with the Tory 'herd" of polls, while there might be even also more shock poll on the other side before the election, possibly showing a level result , or a 1% Labour lead.
Prediction - Tory maj of 15-40.0 -
Out ComRes, and ICM who do PBTories love the most?
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Me thinks this is what Messina polls are telling the Tories. At least that would explain the lack of panic and seeming like little need to go nuclear and just skip interviews and debates.TheScreamingEagles said:New @ICMResearch poll for The Sun on Sunday
Con 45 (nc) Lab 34 (+1) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 5 (nc)
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3716473/theresa-may-on-course-to-win-general-election-by-60-seats-despite-labour-narrowing-lead/0 -
Average of today's polls so far:
Con 44%
Lab 36%0 -
Lets split the difference between ComRes and ICM and put the Tories on 46
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Thats about right IMOAndyJS said:The best thing to do is take an average of the polls. So far today it's a Tory lead of 7%.
Scrap that: 8% with ICM included.
TMICIPM increased Maj0 -
Take 2-3% off Labour due to lazy people not turning out on the day and we're at 45%/31% and a Tory landslide is still on...MarqueeMark said:ICM is 45:34
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The ICM phone poll was the gold standard, ICM now only do online polls.DavidL said:ICM says chill. Still the gold standard in my book.
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I know you can't read too much into these things, but why are so many of these polls showing none of the main four parties going down? Is it because the SNP/Plaid/Green are going down? Seems to be a common theme this last week.TheScreamingEagles said:New @ICMResearch poll for The Sun on Sunday
Con 45 (nc) Lab 34 (+1) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 5 (nc)
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3716473/theresa-may-on-course-to-win-general-election-by-60-seats-despite-labour-narrowing-lead/0 -
Comres, by about 10%...The_Apocalypse said:Out ComRes, and ICM who do PBTories love the most?
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Tory majority 100 seats. Time to get.0
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So are we sticking with survation interesting sample as the bar chart poll for this thread and not icm the world's favourite pollster.....for pb tories and pampers pundits.0
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The campaign has been non-existent. Very weird.FrancisUrquhart said:I am still very bemused by the Tory reaction or lack of it. If Messina was getting too close to call in his polls you would have thought they would be calling in every favour, every Tory that is popular would be spending every waking minute in every marginal seat and the Sun / Mail / Telegraph would be getting inundated with useful stories.
That or Kim Jong May doesn't want to listen.0 -
I suppose there's a strong case for saying that polls being all over the place is good for our democracy. Nobody's got an excuse not to vote. Highly accurate polling is the worst. Inaccurate herding pretty bad, because the herding leads to believability.0
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Heard this before, time to check it out....Magosh said:History tells me that when the polls say conflicting things, it's better to side with those that show higher Tory leads, I'm afraid. (And I mean I am literally afraid, personally)
(result, best Tory poll)
2015: +6.6, +6 (Surveymonkey and the spiked Survation both on +6, everyone else basically saying +0)
2010: +7.2, +9 (Populus, but polls overall very good, lots on +7, although LDs polled at 27/28 confused things)
2005: -3.0, -5 (Ipsos MORI, others had much larger Lab leads)
2001: -9.0, -11 (ICM and Rasmussen, others had much larger Lab leads)
1997: -12.5, -10 (ICM, others had much larger Lab leads)
Pretty good general rule.
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So 5 down
1, 6, 9, 11, 12?0 -
Darkest timeline (for my book)Theuniondivvie said:
& all important mcsubsample
SNP 43.8
SCon 20.7
SLab 27.90 -
ICM as predicted there.0
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Game over for labour . i'll take a stab at 395 seats for tories labour sub 2000
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It's not good if polls are driving the narrative.alex. said:I suppose there's a strong case for saying that polls being all over the place is good for our democracy. Nobody's got an excuse not to vote. Highly accurate polling is the worst. Innaccurate herding pretty bad, because the herding leads to believability.
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ICM¡!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0
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*hides KLAXON*Alistair said:
Darkest timeline (for my book)Theuniondivvie said:
& all important mcsubsample
SNP 43.8
SCon 20.7
SLab 27.9
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Unless the sort of polls ICM have just released is what the Tories are getting i.e. Steady Tory number 44-45 come what may, and yes a Labour surge but no where near as much as YouGov.KentRising said:
The campaign has been non-existent. Very weird.FrancisUrquhart said:I am still very bemused by the Tory reaction or lack of it. If Messina was getting too close to call in his polls you would have thought they would be calling in every favour, every Tory that is popular would be spending every waking minute in every marginal seat and the Sun / Mail / Telegraph would be getting inundated with useful stories.
That or Kim Jong May doesn't want to listen.
I just wonder, is the private polling telling the Tories they are ok and worry that going nuclear on Corbyn could get a Gordo type sympathy response.
I can't think of any other logical reason why the only time the Tories have really campaigned is when their manifesto social care policy went tits up.0 -
Just wait until we see the tables and find out ICM also have 40% of people having watched the debate live.0
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Spoilsport.TheScreamingEagles said:
The ICM phone poll was the gold standard, ICM now only do online polls.DavidL said:ICM says chill. Still the gold standard in my book.
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Well JackW has been steadfast in his 100 seat majority prediction. And in 2015 he had contacts at the heart of the Tory campaign.KentRising said:
The campaign has been non-existent. Very weird.FrancisUrquhart said:I am still very bemused by the Tory reaction or lack of it. If Messina was getting too close to call in his polls you would have thought they would be calling in every favour, every Tory that is popular would be spending every waking minute in every marginal seat and the Sun / Mail / Telegraph would be getting inundated with useful stories.
That or Kim Jong May doesn't want to listen.0 -
Unless people watching clips on evening and breakfast news are counting that as seeing part of the QT programme.The_Apocalypse said:
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/871097589982273536SeanT said:
With a huge over-sampling of people who watched/were aware of, the QT showTheScreamingEagles said:Survation is the only poll to be carried out post QT.
Most of my educated, politically aware friends had no idea QT was on, or what it meant.
How many saw it? 3m? 4? Multiply by 3 to include those aware of it. That's still less than a third of the electorate.0 -
When it's +1 changes, it's usually roundingstlg86 said:
I know you can't read too much into these things, but why are so many of these polls showing none of the main four parties going down? Is it because the SNP/Plaid/Green are going down? Seems to be a common theme this last week.TheScreamingEagles said:New @ICMResearch poll for The Sun on Sunday
Con 45 (nc) Lab 34 (+1) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 5 (nc)
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3716473/theresa-may-on-course-to-win-general-election-by-60-seats-despite-labour-narrowing-lead/0 -
If it is ultra-targetted (and that's soaking up all of their funds) we might just be in the wrong demographics for the advertising. How may 45 years old white C2 women are on here?KentRising said:
The campaign has been non-existent. Very weird.FrancisUrquhart said:I am still very bemused by the Tory reaction or lack of it. If Messina was getting too close to call in his polls you would have thought they would be calling in every favour, every Tory that is popular would be spending every waking minute in every marginal seat and the Sun / Mail / Telegraph would be getting inundated with useful stories.
That or Kim Jong May doesn't want to listen.
Still doesn't explain where most of the cabinet is tho'.0 -
'Leave it Jez, she's not wurf it.'RochdalePioneers said:I love politics. The ultimate soap opera where you the viewer can affect the ending to the story. Will St Theresa be allowed to complete her negotiations with the rector for a new steeple for the village church? Will Mad Jeremy succeed in snatching the deeds to the church so that it can be swept away allowing a yoghurt knitting co-operative to set up shop in a new eco-factory? Its up to you...
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Do you think they might throw out a phone poll for the final "Eve Of Poll" poll on Wednesday?TheScreamingEagles said:
The ICM phone poll was the gold standard, ICM now only do online polls.DavidL said:ICM says chill. Still the gold standard in my book.
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The table states that 17% watched the whole event live, and 21% watched part of it live. That's just way too high.paulyork64 said:
Unless people watching clips on evening and breakfast news are counting that as seeing part of the QT programme.The_Apocalypse said:
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/871097589982273536SeanT said:
With a huge over-sampling of people who watched/were aware of, the QT showTheScreamingEagles said:Survation is the only poll to be carried out post QT.
Most of my educated, politically aware friends had no idea QT was on, or what it meant.
How many saw it? 3m? 4? Multiply by 3 to include those aware of it. That's still less than a third of the electorate.0 -
There is remarkable consistency in the approximate 80% combined vote share for Labour and Conservatives no matter the polling company.
I find it hard to imagine that the Survation poll is right since I cannot image so many people swapping between the 2 parties when they are offering such a different idea on what they want to do in government. (For the 1 time in ages) If the Con vote was down 6 surely some of that would go to the LDs or UKIP rather than straight to Labour?
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If this is herding we need a sheepdog0
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I said I'd be getting blootered next Friday celebrating the surprise Laour win. I'll be getting blootered regardless of the result. And being paid to do so. Politics is fun, life is good.0
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The truth may be that after all this is a Brexit election. The fact that it has been barely mentioned in the campaign hasn't changed that. Brexit voters decided on day one that they would vote Con to guarantee Brexit, and they haven't wavered.KentRising said:
The campaign has been non-existent. Very weird.FrancisUrquhart said:I am still very bemused by the Tory reaction or lack of it. If Messina was getting too close to call in his polls you would have thought they would be calling in every favour, every Tory that is popular would be spending every waking minute in every marginal seat and the Sun / Mail / Telegraph would be getting inundated with useful stories.
That or Kim Jong May doesn't want to listen.0 -
NoGIN1138 said:
Do you think they might throw out a phone poll for the final "Eve Of Poll" poll on Wednesday?TheScreamingEagles said:
The ICM phone poll was the gold standard, ICM now only do online polls.DavidL said:ICM says chill. Still the gold standard in my book.
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Yep ur right.RobD said:
The table states that 17% watched the whole event live, and 21% watched part of it live. That's just way too high.paulyork64 said:
Unless people watching clips on evening and breakfast news are counting that as seeing part of the QT programme.The_Apocalypse said:
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/871097589982273536SeanT said:
With a huge over-sampling of people who watched/were aware of, the QT showTheScreamingEagles said:Survation is the only poll to be carried out post QT.
Most of my educated, politically aware friends had no idea QT was on, or what it meant.
How many saw it? 3m? 4? Multiply by 3 to include those aware of it. That's still less than a third of the electorate.0 -
I know, but it seems to have happened a lot recently.TheScreamingEagles said:
When it's +1 changes, it's usually roundingstlg86 said:
I know you can't read too much into these things, but why are so many of these polls showing none of the main four parties going down? Is it because the SNP/Plaid/Green are going down? Seems to be a common theme this last week.TheScreamingEagles said:New @ICMResearch poll for The Sun on Sunday
Con 45 (nc) Lab 34 (+1) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 5 (nc)
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3716473/theresa-may-on-course-to-win-general-election-by-60-seats-despite-labour-narrowing-lead/0 -
https://twitter.com/flying_inside/status/871100912865071104IanB2 said:If this is herding we need a sheepdog
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OrRochdalePioneers said:
"DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN"JackW said:
Thread - Polls All Over Shop - DiscussTheScreamingEagles said:Spare a thought for the poor sod who has two write the Sunday morning thread.
He likes to write said thread between 9pm and 11pm on Saturday nights
Daily Mirror - 9th June
"CORBYN DEFEATS MAY"
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Is there any collection of these polls results showing with DKs included in the results. I think that would be really useful to see if there is big differences between polling companies DK figure0
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I think we're seeing a natural squeeze because a lot of pollsters are filtering for the respondents who live in constituencies with no UKIP or Green candidatetlg86 said:
I know, but it seems to have happened a lot recently.TheScreamingEagles said:
When it's +1 changes, it's usually roundingstlg86 said:
I know you can't read too much into these things, but why are so many of these polls showing none of the main four parties going down? Is it because the SNP/Plaid/Green are going down? Seems to be a common theme this last week.TheScreamingEagles said:New @ICMResearch poll for The Sun on Sunday
Con 45 (nc) Lab 34 (+1) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 5 (nc)
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3716473/theresa-may-on-course-to-win-general-election-by-60-seats-despite-labour-narrowing-lead/0 -
Not going to make any difference but a terrible decision by the referee in giving a red there.0
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There is a phone poll coming isn't there?TheScreamingEagles said:
The ICM phone poll was the gold standard, ICM now only do online polls.DavidL said:ICM says chill. Still the gold standard in my book.
Am I right that Survation interesting as it is the only post debate one,
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Polls really are bollocks.0
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I don't think we know the ICM/YouGov fieldwork dates. It's also interesting in that it claims 40% of people watched all/some of the debate live.foxinsoxuk said:
There is a phone poll coming isn't there?TheScreamingEagles said:
The ICM phone poll was the gold standard, ICM now only do online polls.DavidL said:ICM says chill. Still the gold standard in my book.
Am I right that Survation interesting as it is the only post debate one,0
