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SystemSystem Posts: 12,638
edited June 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s polls range from ComRes 12% CON lead to Survation’s 1%

It a massive night of polls with the election just five days away. So far we’ve had four:

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,364
    Survation is the only poll to be carried out post QT.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,636
    Third!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,650
    15 mins to YouGov. The excitement!
  • booksellerbookseller Posts: 508
    Fourth like UKIP
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,979
    So it is either too close to call or a landslide...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Well that cleared that up then. Without polls it would be confusing.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    edited June 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Survation is the only poll to be carried out post QT.

    yes but pre QT mrs may was accused of running chicken from the debates which you would have thought should have depressed her polling
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,673
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Survation is the only poll to be carried out post QT.

    But if 75% of it's respondents claim to have seen the debate - then their panel has been gamed.
  • booksellerbookseller Posts: 508
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So it is either too close to call or a landslide...

    This is madness. Utter madness.
  • MagoshMagosh Posts: 8
    History tells me that when the polls say conflicting things, it's better to side with those that show higher Tory leads, I'm afraid. (And I mean I am literally afraid, personally)

    Frankly, it would be wise for all LAB supporters to assume they'll lose badly, since that it is historically the most likely outcome. Anything more would be a nice surprise on the night.

    Seeing who is right and who is wrong will be very interesting, though.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,650
    edited June 2017
    Jonathan said:

    Well that cleared that up then. Without polls it would be confusing.

    :D

    Imagine they are all wrong, and that we're heading for a landslide Labour victory.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Survation is the only poll to be carried out post QT.

    But if 75% of it's respondents claim to have seen the debate - then their panel has been gamed.
    Well they didn't
  • RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359
    edited June 2017
    https://twitter.com/_a_y/status/871097856421117952
    https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/871098158830542849
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,636
    The difference between ComRes and Survation is well above MOE. The pollsters are once again asking us to make a judgement as to who has the best adjustments, rather than pointing us towards an accurate forecast of the result.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    RobD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Well that cleared that up then. Without polls it would be confusing.

    :D

    Imagine they are all wrong, and that we're heading for a landslide Labour victory.
    Or a Lib Dem/UKIP coalition of chaos....
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Spare a thought for the poor sod who has two write the Sunday morning thread.

    He likes to write said thread between 9pm and 11pm on Saturday nights

    Thread - Polls All Over Shop - Discuss
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,979
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Survation is the only poll to be carried out post QT.

    With a huge over-sampling of people who watched/were aware of, the QT show

    Most of my educated, politically aware friends had no idea QT was on, or what it meant.

    How many saw it? 3m? 4? Multiply by 3 to include those aware of it. That's still less than a third of the electorate.
    It was around 3m I think.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,650
    Rhubarb said:

    https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/871098158830542849

    Yeah, even if the 72% is watched or heard of it, the poll claims 40% watched some of it live, which is rubbish.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Survation is the only poll to be carried out post QT.

    With a huge over-sampling of people who watched/were aware of, the QT show

    Most of my educated, politically aware friends had no idea QT was on, or what it meant.

    How many saw it? 3m? 4? Multiply by 3 to include those aware of it. That's still less than a third of the electorate.
    https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/871097589982273536
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,364
    I reckon this is the sort of polling we'd have got in reverse if Gordon Brown had called an election in the autumn of 2007
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,636
    Magosh said:

    History tells me that when the polls say conflicting things, it's better to side with those that show higher Tory leads, I'm afraid. (And I mean I am literally afraid, personally)

    Frankly, it would be wise for all LAB supporters to assume they'll lose badly, since that it is historically the most likely outcome. Anything more would be a nice surprise on the night.

    Seeing who is right and who is wrong will be very interesting, though.

    That would work except for the fact that the pollsters are this time adjusting their raw data to allow for that. Or so they hope.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,757
    I love politics. The ultimate soap opera where you the viewer can affect the ending to the story. Will St Theresa be allowed to complete her negotiations with the rector for a new steeple for the village church? Will Mad Jeremy succeed in snatching the deeds to the church so that it can be swept away allowing a yoghurt knitting co-operative to set up shop in a new eco-factory? Its up to you...
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/871098158830542849
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,650
    IanB2 said:

    Magosh said:

    History tells me that when the polls say conflicting things, it's better to side with those that show higher Tory leads, I'm afraid. (And I mean I am literally afraid, personally)

    Frankly, it would be wise for all LAB supporters to assume they'll lose badly, since that it is historically the most likely outcome. Anything more would be a nice surprise on the night.

    Seeing who is right and who is wrong will be very interesting, though.

    That would work except for the fact that the pollsters are this time adjusting their raw data to allow for that. Or so they hope.
    They are trying to do that each time with their adjustments. It's not a new thing for this election.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,265
    EMA model after Orb Con maj 40
    Con 44% Lab 36%
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,650
    Barnesian said:

    EMA model after Orb Con maj 40
    Con 44% Lab 36%

    I think that's a reasonable estimate for the final numbers
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,979
    edited June 2017
    I am still very bemused by the Tory reaction or lack of it. If Messina was getting too close to call in his polls you would have thought they would be calling in every favour, every Tory that is popular would be spending every waking minute in every marginal seat and the Sun / Mail / Telegraph would be getting inundated with useful stories.

    That or Kim Jong May doesn't want to listen.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/cjterry/status/871099209218494466
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,757
    JackW said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Spare a thought for the poor sod who has two write the Sunday morning thread.

    He likes to write said thread between 9pm and 11pm on Saturday nights

    Thread - Polls All Over Shop - Discuss
    "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN"
  • EmptyNesterEmptyNester Posts: 94
    I inadvertently chose the tailend of the last thread to delurk:
    Whilst I live in hope that last night’s debate may help burst the Corbyn bubble, I am bewildered at the total lack of questioning by anyone of the credentials to govern of three long-term, serially rebellious, career politician backbenchers with no ministerial or shadow ministerial experience between them prior to Corbyn’s appointment. How can these people possibly be entrusted with running the country? What experience can they draw on? Do they have the remotest inkling of how government really works? Nor has there been anything approaching a forensic examination of their magic money tree manifesto. Lacklustre does not even begin to describe the Conservative campaign, but I find it inconceivable that 35% - 40% of the electorate can truly want this toxic trio at the helm.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,364
    https://twitter.com/CJTerry/status/871099209218494466
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,673
    I wonder if YouGov and Survation are wondering "HAVE our panels been bent out of shape by Momentum? Are they smarter than us?"
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,650
    edited June 2017
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/cjterry/status/871099209218494466

    11 points! YEAH :D
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    The best thing to do is take an average of the polls. So far today it's a Tory lead of 7%.

    Scrap that: 8% with ICM included.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,777
    edited June 2017
    Survation precise figs.

    Con 39.8
    Lab 39.1

    & all important mcsubsample

    SNP 43.8
    SCon 20.7
    SLab 27.9



  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/cjterry/status/871099209218494466

    Little change from last time. PB Tory bedwetting subsides, at least until the YouGov poll anyway....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,673
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/cjterry/status/871099209218494466

    11 points! YEAH :D
    I'll take that.....
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/cjterry/status/871099209218494466

    11 points! YEAH :D
    I find it impossible to believe that 45:34 is only a 60 seat majority.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,636
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Magosh said:

    History tells me that when the polls say conflicting things, it's better to side with those that show higher Tory leads, I'm afraid. (And I mean I am literally afraid, personally)

    Frankly, it would be wise for all LAB supporters to assume they'll lose badly, since that it is historically the most likely outcome. Anything more would be a nice surprise on the night.

    Seeing who is right and who is wrong will be very interesting, though.

    That would work except for the fact that the pollsters are this time adjusting their raw data to allow for that. Or so they hope.
    They are trying to do that each time with their adjustments. It's not a new thing for this election.
    Not so much as now. When they publish the raw data we see that the published headline VI is sometimes miles different.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,905
    ICM is out - its all over, lads.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SeanT said:

    So that's three good or excellent polls for the Tories (in the circs)

    Heading for a majority somewhere between 50 and 100.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,650
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Magosh said:

    History tells me that when the polls say conflicting things, it's better to side with those that show higher Tory leads, I'm afraid. (And I mean I am literally afraid, personally)

    Frankly, it would be wise for all LAB supporters to assume they'll lose badly, since that it is historically the most likely outcome. Anything more would be a nice surprise on the night.

    Seeing who is right and who is wrong will be very interesting, though.

    That would work except for the fact that the pollsters are this time adjusting their raw data to allow for that. Or so they hope.
    They are trying to do that each time with their adjustments. It's not a new thing for this election.
    Not so much as now. When they publish the raw data we see that the published headline VI is sometimes miles different.
    I've not actually looked at raw/adjusted figures for previous elections, but I recall the MORI headline figures always being significantly different from their "all expressing an opinion" numbers.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,673
    edited June 2017
    ICM is

    Cons 45
    Lab 34
    LD 9
    UKIP 5
    Greens 3
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,172
    ICM says chill. Still the gold standard in my book.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,533
    I wonder if ICM will be in, even more closely with the Tory 'herd" of polls, while there might be even also more shock poll on the other side before the election, possibly showing a level result , or a 1% Labour lead.
    Prediction - Tory maj of 15-40.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,777
    SeanT said:

    bookseller said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So it is either too close to call or a landslide...

    This is madness. Utter madness.
    On the other hand it makes our elections WAY more interesting than the tedious, regimented French processions of Gallic voter robots who can be predicted to the third decimal place, with great accuracy, and all tension ends three weeks before the vote.
    TBF there was a fair bit of MLP hopeful wanking until quite late on.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,979
    edited June 2017
    This is just utter bonkers....I don't care what the result is, the polling companies are going to need another inquiry. There is no way one should lot should be consistently getting 1-4% and the other 11-12%.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,364
    New @ICMResearch poll for The Sun on Sunday

    Con 45 (nc) Lab 34 (+1) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 5 (nc)

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3716473/theresa-may-on-course-to-win-general-election-by-60-seats-despite-labour-narrowing-lead/
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Survation is the only poll to be carried out post QT.

    I doubt QT did much to change minds, though perhaps it stalled some Corbyn momentum.
    I agree in the old thread with the comment suggesting the survation poll is designed to get Mail readers out to vote, I dont think a survey taken across one morning is the optimum way to do things, but if the Mail on Sunday wanted to cause worry this is perfect.

    Similarly kudos to another poster suggesting survation had 4 polls with different results unpublished from 2015, so obvious and probably so true! Why i did i never think of that. Gold standard my arse.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,533
    WhisperingOracle said:

    I wonder if ICM will be in, even more closely with the Tory 'herd" of polls, while there might be even also more shock poll on the other side before the election, possibly showing a level result , or a 1% Labour lead.
    Prediction - Tory maj of 15-40.

    "polls", on the other side, I should say there.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Out ComRes, and ICM who do PBTories love the most? :innocent:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,979
    edited June 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    New @ICMResearch poll for The Sun on Sunday

    Con 45 (nc) Lab 34 (+1) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 5 (nc)

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3716473/theresa-may-on-course-to-win-general-election-by-60-seats-despite-labour-narrowing-lead/

    Me thinks this is what Messina polls are telling the Tories. At least that would explain the lack of panic and seeming like little need to go nuclear and just skip interviews and debates.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Average of today's polls so far:

    Con 44%
    Lab 36%
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,650
    Lets split the difference between ComRes and ICM and put the Tories on 46 :p
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    AndyJS said:

    The best thing to do is take an average of the polls. So far today it's a Tory lead of 7%.

    Scrap that: 8% with ICM included.

    Thats about right IMO


    TMICIPM increased Maj
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    edited June 2017
    MarqueeMark said:

    ICM is 45:34

    Take 2-3% off Labour due to lazy people not turning out on the day and we're at 45%/31% and a Tory landslide is still on...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,364
    DavidL said:

    ICM says chill. Still the gold standard in my book.

    The ICM phone poll was the gold standard, ICM now only do online polls.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,104
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    New @ICMResearch poll for The Sun on Sunday

    Con 45 (nc) Lab 34 (+1) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 5 (nc)

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3716473/theresa-may-on-course-to-win-general-election-by-60-seats-despite-labour-narrowing-lead/

    I know you can't read too much into these things, but why are so many of these polls showing none of the main four parties going down? Is it because the SNP/Plaid/Green are going down? Seems to be a common theme this last week.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,650
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Out ComRes, and ICM who do PBTories love the most? :innocent:

    Comres, by about 10%... :smiley:
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Tory majority 100 seats. Time to get.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    So are we sticking with survation interesting sample as the bar chart poll for this thread and not icm the world's favourite pollster.....for pb tories and pampers pundits.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,927
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I am still very bemused by the Tory reaction or lack of it. If Messina was getting too close to call in his polls you would have thought they would be calling in every favour, every Tory that is popular would be spending every waking minute in every marginal seat and the Sun / Mail / Telegraph would be getting inundated with useful stories.

    That or Kim Jong May doesn't want to listen.

    The campaign has been non-existent. Very weird.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited June 2017
    I suppose there's a strong case for saying that polls being all over the place is good for our democracy. Nobody's got an excuse not to vote. Highly accurate polling is the worst. Inaccurate herding pretty bad, because the herding leads to believability.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Magosh said:

    History tells me that when the polls say conflicting things, it's better to side with those that show higher Tory leads, I'm afraid. (And I mean I am literally afraid, personally)

    Heard this before, time to check it out....
    (result, best Tory poll)

    2015: +6.6, +6 (Surveymonkey and the spiked Survation both on +6, everyone else basically saying +0)
    2010: +7.2, +9 (Populus, but polls overall very good, lots on +7, although LDs polled at 27/28 confused things)
    2005: -3.0, -5 (Ipsos MORI, others had much larger Lab leads)
    2001: -9.0, -11 (ICM and Rasmussen, others had much larger Lab leads)
    1997: -12.5, -10 (ICM, others had much larger Lab leads)

    Pretty good general rule.



  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    So 5 down

    1, 6, 9, 11, 12?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Theuniondivvie said:



    & all important mcsubsample

    SNP 43.8
    SCon 20.7
    SLab 27.9

    Darkest timeline (for my book)
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,533
    ICM as predicted there.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Game over for labour . i'll take a stab at 395 seats for tories labour sub 200
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,650
    alex. said:

    I suppose there's a strong case for saying that polls being all over the place is good for our democracy. Nobody's got an excuse not to vote. Highly accurate polling is the worst. Innaccurate herding pretty bad, because the herding leads to believability.

    It's not good if polls are driving the narrative.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    RobD said:

    Barnesian said:

    EMA model after Orb Con maj 40
    Con 44% Lab 36%

    I think that's a reasonable estimate for the final numbers
    I reckon 50 to 60 Maj
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    ICM¡!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,650
    Alistair said:

    Theuniondivvie said:



    & all important mcsubsample

    SNP 43.8
    SCon 20.7
    SLab 27.9

    Darkest timeline (for my book)
    *hides KLAXON* :(
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,979
    edited June 2017
    KentRising said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I am still very bemused by the Tory reaction or lack of it. If Messina was getting too close to call in his polls you would have thought they would be calling in every favour, every Tory that is popular would be spending every waking minute in every marginal seat and the Sun / Mail / Telegraph would be getting inundated with useful stories.

    That or Kim Jong May doesn't want to listen.

    The campaign has been non-existent. Very weird.
    Unless the sort of polls ICM have just released is what the Tories are getting i.e. Steady Tory number 44-45 come what may, and yes a Labour surge but no where near as much as YouGov.

    I just wonder, is the private polling telling the Tories they are ok and worry that going nuclear on Corbyn could get a Gordo type sympathy response.

    I can't think of any other logical reason why the only time the Tories have really campaigned is when their manifesto social care policy went tits up.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,650
    Just wait until we see the tables and find out ICM also have 40% of people having watched the debate live.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,172
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DavidL said:

    ICM says chill. Still the gold standard in my book.

    The ICM phone poll was the gold standard, ICM now only do online polls.
    Spoilsport.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    KentRising said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I am still very bemused by the Tory reaction or lack of it. If Messina was getting too close to call in his polls you would have thought they would be calling in every favour, every Tory that is popular would be spending every waking minute in every marginal seat and the Sun / Mail / Telegraph would be getting inundated with useful stories.

    That or Kim Jong May doesn't want to listen.

    The campaign has been non-existent. Very weird.
    Well JackW has been steadfast in his 100 seat majority prediction. And in 2015 he had contacts at the heart of the Tory campaign.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    The_Apocalypse said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Survation is the only poll to be carried out post QT.

    With a huge over-sampling of people who watched/were aware of, the QT show

    Most of my educated, politically aware friends had no idea QT was on, or what it meant.

    How many saw it? 3m? 4? Multiply by 3 to include those aware of it. That's still less than a third of the electorate.
    https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/871097589982273536
    Unless people watching clips on evening and breakfast news are counting that as seeing part of the QT programme.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,364
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    New @ICMResearch poll for The Sun on Sunday

    Con 45 (nc) Lab 34 (+1) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 5 (nc)

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3716473/theresa-may-on-course-to-win-general-election-by-60-seats-despite-labour-narrowing-lead/

    I know you can't read too much into these things, but why are so many of these polls showing none of the main four parties going down? Is it because the SNP/Plaid/Green are going down? Seems to be a common theme this last week.
    When it's +1 changes, it's usually roundings
  • RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359
    KentRising said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I am still very bemused by the Tory reaction or lack of it. If Messina was getting too close to call in his polls you would have thought they would be calling in every favour, every Tory that is popular would be spending every waking minute in every marginal seat and the Sun / Mail / Telegraph would be getting inundated with useful stories.

    That or Kim Jong May doesn't want to listen.

    The campaign has been non-existent. Very weird.
    If it is ultra-targetted (and that's soaking up all of their funds) we might just be in the wrong demographics for the advertising. How may 45 years old white C2 women are on here?

    Still doesn't explain where most of the cabinet is tho'.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,777
    RochdalePioneers said:

    I love politics. The ultimate soap opera where you the viewer can affect the ending to the story. Will St Theresa be allowed to complete her negotiations with the rector for a new steeple for the village church? Will Mad Jeremy succeed in snatching the deeds to the church so that it can be swept away allowing a yoghurt knitting co-operative to set up shop in a new eco-factory? Its up to you...

    'Leave it Jez, she's not wurf it.'
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,650
    paulyork64 said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Survation is the only poll to be carried out post QT.

    With a huge over-sampling of people who watched/were aware of, the QT show

    Most of my educated, politically aware friends had no idea QT was on, or what it meant.

    How many saw it? 3m? 4? Multiply by 3 to include those aware of it. That's still less than a third of the electorate.
    https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/871097589982273536
    Unless people watching clips on evening and breakfast news are counting that as seeing part of the QT programme.
    The table states that 17% watched the whole event live, and 21% watched part of it live. That's just way too high.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DavidL said:

    ICM says chill. Still the gold standard in my book.

    The ICM phone poll was the gold standard, ICM now only do online polls.
    Do you think they might throw out a phone poll for the final "Eve Of Poll" poll on Wednesday?
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    There is remarkable consistency in the approximate 80% combined vote share for Labour and Conservatives no matter the polling company.
    I find it hard to imagine that the Survation poll is right since I cannot image so many people swapping between the 2 parties when they are offering such a different idea on what they want to do in government. (For the 1 time in ages) If the Con vote was down 6 surely some of that would go to the LDs or UKIP rather than straight to Labour?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Alistair said:

    Darkest timeline (for my book)

    Wait, there are other timelines?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,636
    If this is herding we need a sheepdog
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,757
    I said I'd be getting blootered next Friday celebrating the surprise Laour win. I'll be getting blootered regardless of the result. And being paid to do so. Politics is fun, life is good.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    KentRising said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I am still very bemused by the Tory reaction or lack of it. If Messina was getting too close to call in his polls you would have thought they would be calling in every favour, every Tory that is popular would be spending every waking minute in every marginal seat and the Sun / Mail / Telegraph would be getting inundated with useful stories.

    That or Kim Jong May doesn't want to listen.

    The campaign has been non-existent. Very weird.
    The truth may be that after all this is a Brexit election. The fact that it has been barely mentioned in the campaign hasn't changed that. Brexit voters decided on day one that they would vote Con to guarantee Brexit, and they haven't wavered.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,364
    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DavidL said:

    ICM says chill. Still the gold standard in my book.

    The ICM phone poll was the gold standard, ICM now only do online polls.
    Do you think they might throw out a phone poll for the final "Eve Of Poll" poll on Wednesday?
    No
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    RobD said:

    paulyork64 said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Survation is the only poll to be carried out post QT.

    With a huge over-sampling of people who watched/were aware of, the QT show

    Most of my educated, politically aware friends had no idea QT was on, or what it meant.

    How many saw it? 3m? 4? Multiply by 3 to include those aware of it. That's still less than a third of the electorate.
    https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/871097589982273536
    Unless people watching clips on evening and breakfast news are counting that as seeing part of the QT programme.
    The table states that 17% watched the whole event live, and 21% watched part of it live. That's just way too high.
    Yep ur right.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,104
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    New @ICMResearch poll for The Sun on Sunday

    Con 45 (nc) Lab 34 (+1) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 5 (nc)

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3716473/theresa-may-on-course-to-win-general-election-by-60-seats-despite-labour-narrowing-lead/

    I know you can't read too much into these things, but why are so many of these polls showing none of the main four parties going down? Is it because the SNP/Plaid/Green are going down? Seems to be a common theme this last week.
    When it's +1 changes, it's usually roundings
    I know, but it seems to have happened a lot recently.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    IanB2 said:

    If this is herding we need a sheepdog

    https://twitter.com/flying_inside/status/871100912865071104
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RochdalePioneers said:

    JackW said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Spare a thought for the poor sod who has two write the Sunday morning thread.

    He likes to write said thread between 9pm and 11pm on Saturday nights

    Thread - Polls All Over Shop - Discuss
    "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN"
    Or

    Daily Mirror - 9th June

    "CORBYN DEFEATS MAY"

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,650
    Scott_P said:

    IanB2 said:

    If this is herding we need a sheepdog

    twitter.com/flying_inside/status/871100912865071104
    He's biding his time, and will tell us who is right at 10:00pm, June 8th.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Is there any collection of these polls results showing with DKs included in the results. I think that would be really useful to see if there is big differences between polling companies DK figure
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,364
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    New @ICMResearch poll for The Sun on Sunday

    Con 45 (nc) Lab 34 (+1) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 5 (nc)

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3716473/theresa-may-on-course-to-win-general-election-by-60-seats-despite-labour-narrowing-lead/

    I know you can't read too much into these things, but why are so many of these polls showing none of the main four parties going down? Is it because the SNP/Plaid/Green are going down? Seems to be a common theme this last week.
    When it's +1 changes, it's usually roundings
    I know, but it seems to have happened a lot recently.
    I think we're seeing a natural squeeze because a lot of pollsters are filtering for the respondents who live in constituencies with no UKIP or Green candidate
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,172
    Not going to make any difference but a terrible decision by the referee in giving a red there.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DavidL said:

    ICM says chill. Still the gold standard in my book.

    The ICM phone poll was the gold standard, ICM now only do online polls.
    There is a phone poll coming isn't there?

    Am I right that Survation interesting as it is the only post debate one,

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Polls really are bollocks.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/shippersunbound/status/871102032773566464
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,650
    foxinsoxuk said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DavidL said:

    ICM says chill. Still the gold standard in my book.

    The ICM phone poll was the gold standard, ICM now only do online polls.
    There is a phone poll coming isn't there?

    Am I right that Survation interesting as it is the only post debate one,

    I don't think we know the ICM/YouGov fieldwork dates. It's also interesting in that it claims 40% of people watched all/some of the debate live.
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