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  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191

    The reason tories make promises and break them is because tory voters don't care that they lie because in everyday life they do the same.

    https://media.giphy.com/media/Hq4DYXhDkEvHW/giphy.gif
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043

    Read May's intro to the Tory manifesto.

    The Tory manifesto says nothing about a big boost to economic growth as a direct result of Brexit, just that the Tories will make post Brexit Britain more prosperous than Labour and will implement the Brexit Leave voters voted for with an end to free movement and no 100 billion euros to the EU and reclaimed sovereignty. If May gets a majority the British people will have endorsed that Brexit
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    They used to call the Tory party the nasty party - some Labour supporters should look at themselves first
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    kjohnw said:

    remember when brown reversed his 10p tax cock up
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/1584355/Gordon-Brown-attacked-over-10p-tax-rate.html
    or when he broke the manifesto pledge to share the proceeds of growth with pensioners and gave them a whopping 75p
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/1584355/Gordon-Brown-attacked-over-10p-tax-rate.html
    Yes, he did and correctly lost the election. Fallon's pledge is another U-turn.
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited June 2017
    On BBC Question Time last night:

    image
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    I thought for emergencies you could apply for a proxy vote even on the day? Though the emergency may have to be medical.
    My council website says:

    Emergency proxy voting

    You can arrange for an emergency proxy if you can't get to the polling station in person on the day due to either:
    a medical emergency
    unforeseen work or occupational reasons.
    You can apply for an emergency proxy up to 5pm on 8 June 2017.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    The reason tories make promises and break them is because tory voters don't care that they lie because in everyday life they do the same.

    That's right, we laugh in the face of the notion that "My word is my bond." My favourite gag is that one about "no plans to privatise the NHS" - cracks me up every time.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Typo said:

    May looks to be in Huddersfield. Make of that what you will.

    Con + UKIP would make it close, but I can't see that being anything other than held since 1983.

    Neighbouring Dewsbury, however, is very much a target.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,107

    My council website says:

    Emergency proxy voting

    You can arrange for an emergency proxy if you can't get to the polling station in person on the day due to either:
    a medical emergency
    unforeseen work or occupational reasons.
    You can apply for an emergency proxy up to 5pm on 8 June 2017.
    Yes, wot he said. Emergency proxy applications are checked particularly strongly, as you'd expect - it does have to be a genuine unforeseen reason; not having got around to arranging one for an interview date someone has known about for a while won't cut it IMO.
  • TypoTypo Posts: 195

    Con + UKIP would make it close, but I can't see that being anything other than held since 1983.

    Neighbouring Dewsbury, however, is very much a target.
    Yes. No doubt she will pop up around Emley Moor at some stage in the day.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    My council website says:

    Emergency proxy voting

    You can arrange for an emergency proxy if you can't get to the polling station in person on the day due to either:
    a medical emergency
    unforeseen work or occupational reasons.
    You can apply for an emergency proxy up to 5pm on 8 June 2017.
    I imagine a job interview counts as an unforeseen work or occupational reason.
  • TypoTypo Posts: 195

    The reason tories make promises and break them is because tory voters don't care that they lie because in everyday life they do the same.

    Do you really believe such rubbish?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,918
    Cyan said:

    On BBC Question Time last night:

    image

    That looks a bit like Dalek technology.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,821
    surbiton said:

    She did not give any assurance about Income Tax payers other than general platitudes about what a good party the Tories are about taxes.

    The Tories have form on this matter. Thatcher's denial about VAT followed by increase from 8% to 15% in just a few weeks. Major also increased NIC from 9% to 11% after denying it.
    Fallon has just said no income tax rises "across the spectrum" so one assumes that won't now happen. Personally I'd be really surprised if they put up income tax, NI not so much because they tried before the election and failed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    isam said:
    Thanet South is now a more likely UKIP gain than Thurrock
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited June 2017
    Betting post. For anybody thinking HP is a possibility you might want to look at Norwich North. Whilst it is much less city based than its partner seat of Clive Lewis, the city segments of the constituency swung to Labour in the locals and the Green 4% will get eaten up as they are disintegrating in Norwich. Against that there was 14% UKIP to farm. There are quite a few students in the seat, falling outside the University areas of South Norwich. In the main it is young professional and young families with a reasonable older block too.
    DYOR but given the swing TO Labour in Norwich at the Locals, if things have tightened since then 12 to 1 is an attractive bet on Labour.
    Not value if you think Con majority is the result though.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    edited June 2017
    HYUFD said:

    The Tory manifesto says nothing about a big boost to economic growth as a direct result of Brexit, just that the Tories will make post Brexit Britain more prosperous than Labour and will implement the Brexit Leave voters voted for with an end to free movement and no 100 billion euros to the EU and reclaimed sovereignty. If May gets a majority the British people will have endorsed that Brexit

    She is promising a Brexit that brings more prosperity.

    "A plan for a stronger, fairer, more prosperous Britain"

    That is what she will be judged on. If you do not agree, fair enough. We'll see what happens.

  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    marke09 said:

    They used to call the Tory party the nasty party - some Labour supporters should look at themselves first

    Taking money from the disabled.
    More people homeless.
    Public sector workers 1% pay rise in 7 years.
    military have no jobs to go into when home.
    taking money from people who don't
    continue to lie to the british people and break promises.
    taking your home to pay for social care with no knowledge of what the cap is.
    Tax cuts for people that don't need it.

    Tories continue to spend their money sponsoring hate campaigns - daily mail, the sun and daily telegraph.

    Nasty party; I'm not ones advocating for the above and have a desire for the slaughter of millions of innocent people.

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Ishmael_Z said:

    That's right, we laugh in the face of the notion that "My word is my bond." My favourite gag is that one about "no plans to privatise the NHS" - cracks me up every time.
    My favourite is "x" hours to save the NHS" - How many times have Labour run that little gem out now?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,550
    isam said:
    A lot of postals would have gone in though before the CPS announced.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    marke09 said:

    They used to call the Tory party the nasty party - some Labour supporters should look at themselves first

    They can't be nasty, or anti Semitic - they are progressives you see.

    If you don't believe them fuck right off and join the tories you zionist scum.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    HYUFD said:

    Thanet South is now a more likely UKIP gain than Thurrock
    Without the one man team's one man standing there?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,918
    Fallon really is a loose canon, isn't he?

    They will be under pressure now to clarify which is right - "absolutely" no rise, or just "no plans" for a rise. If they say Fallon was wrong it will look terrible. Another tricky decision for May.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    .

    I'm not sure why you're still bothering, don't you realise that you've been rumbled?
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Sandpit said:

    I guess the LDs are hand delivering them?

    Parties get one free Royal Mail delivery to each elector but the expense allowance pre-empts a paid for delivery eg 70,000 electors times 50p stamp each = £35,000.

    This compares with a spending limit of around £15,000 depending on the number of electors.

    Note: Parties normally use their free delivery in two batches so as to hit two elector households with a delivery to the first named occupant and a subsequent delivery to the second named occupant.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,735
    edited June 2017

    I imagine a job interview counts as an unforeseen work or occupational reason.
    https://www.yourvotematters.co.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/222467/Emergency-employment-or-service-proxy-vote-application-form.pdf is the form you need.

    Its not clear how you fill it in for a job interview I suspect you need to enter the company interviewing you in the employer section...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    The reason tories make promises and break them is because tory voters don't care that they lie because in everyday life they do the same.

    Does mummy know you are on the pc ?
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Cameron before the election in 2010
    PROMISE : "We need to change, and we will change, the way we behave. I'm fed up with the Punch and Judy politics of Westminster, the name calling, backbiting, point scoring, finger pointing."

    Cameron After the election
    REALITY : Prime Minister's Questions remains just as rowdy as ever, with schoolboy MPs roaring at each other across the green benches. In the last few months it's Tory MPs who have been responsible for shouting down Jeremy Corbyn, despite the Labour leader's vow to create a 'new kind of politics'.
  • Typo said:

    May looks to be in Huddersfield. Make of that what you will.

    Probably chasing after neighbouring, highly marginal Dewsbury.
    The Tories have absolutely no chance of displacing long-serving Barry Sheerman in rock solid Labour safe Huddersfield itself.

    BTW Earlier in the campaign, I backed Labour to hold Dewsbury, from where I am typing this, at odds of 4/1 which have now narrowed to 2/1. It smacks of being a lost cause for the Tories, where for such a winnable seat they selected a 22 year old inexperienced supermarket assistant ..... I mean no disrespect, but this is a seat they should have gobbled up with ease
  • isamisam Posts: 41,317

    Without the one man team's one man standing there?
    A bit strange that UKIP didn't stand a better known candidate in Thanet South isn't it? They must have known there was a fair chance of scandal
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Cameron after a terrorist attack.
    PROMISE : "We need to look at the problems of international terrorism, and I can promise that I will never play politics with that issue. I will do what is right for the country."

    Cameron trying to go to war in syria
    REALITY : While the PM insists he is doing what's right for Britain, there's been a heavy air of politics over his decision to bomb Syria. He refused to apologise for calling anti-war MPs 'terrorist sympathisers' in a cheap shot at the past remarks of Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell. Tory MPs were whipped into supporting bombing Syria, unlike Labour which (eventually) gave MPs a free vote.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    surbiton said:

    In that case, they could have ruled out any income tax rate increases like they did in 2015.

    Noticeably, THEY HAVE NOT.
    But Surbiton - one party only is going to tax and spend like drunken sailors - it ain't the tories.

  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    eek said:

    https://www.yourvotematters.co.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/222467/Emergency-employment-or-service-proxy-vote-application-form.pdf is the form you need...
    That would seem to say that it doesn't. Since you need your employer to sign the form...
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Cameron before election in 2010
    PROMISE : "I want my children, your children, to grow up in a country... where climate change and the environment aren't an afterthought. That means setting targets for reducing carbon but it also means taking tough decisions to make sure we meet them. I tried to make a start this morning by biking to work. That was a carbon-neutral journey until the BBC sent a helicopter following me."

    Cameron once in office
    REALITY : The PM's husky-hugging, glacier-loving credentials raised eyebrows when we revealed a gas-guzzling car was following his bike ride to carry his shoes . The U-turn was complete when he told colleagues it was time to cut the 'green crap' , prompting outrage from environmental groups. Tariffs for solar energy have been slashed and the Green Investment Bank is being sold off.

  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Cameron on media and public policy before election
    PROMISE : "I don't want us to invent policies for newspaper headlines. I want us to get it right for the long term."

    Cameron once he became prime minister
    REALITY : The Tories have repeatedly been accused of 'headline grabbing' with their plans to scrap the Human Rights Act. The move came after a string of lurid news stories about terror suspects abusing the law. Campaigners argue these are rare and it would be dangerous to deprive honest Brits of their rights just to appear tough on terror. More than 200,000 people signed an online petition demanding the issue goes to a national vote.
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 356

    Betting post. For anybody thinking HP is a possibility you might want to look at Norwich North. Whilst it is much less city based than its partner seat of Clive Lewis, the city segments of the constituency swung to Labour in the locals and the Green 4% will get eaten up as they are disintegrating in Norwich. Against that there was 14% UKIP to farm. There are quite a few students in the seat, falling outside the University areas of South Norwich. In the main it is young professional and young families with a reasonable older block too.
    DYOR but given the swing TO Labour in Norwich at the Locals, if things have tightened since then 12 to 1 is an attractive bet on Labour.
    Not value if you think Con majority is the result though.

    I seem to recall that you thought Labour would win it in 2015.

    Chloe by 5k IMO.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    edited June 2017

    She is promising a Brexit that brings more prosperity.

    "A plan for a stronger, fairer, more prosperous Britain"

    That is what she will be judged on. If you do not agree, fair enough. We'll see what happens.

    A plan for a more prosperous Britain than Labour that says nothing about Brexit being the cause of that and it also includes the words 'stronger' ie with reclaimed sovereignty and 'fairer' ie with fairer and more controlled immigration rules
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    Michael Fallon to become CotE after the election (if Tezza wins) ?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited June 2017
    MaxPB said:

    Fallon has just said no income tax rises "across the spectrum" so one assumes that won't now happen. Personally I'd be really surprised if they put up income tax, NI not so much because they tried before the election and failed.
    FAKE NEWS.

    This is The Telegraph headline.

    No income tax rises for high earners under Tory government, minister reveals

    Read for yourself. No such words like "across the spectrum". Stop making it up.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/02/no-income-tax-rises-high-earners-tory-government-minister-reveals/

    No such assurance has been given about basic rate taxpayers.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,107
    edited June 2017

    Your memory trumps mine - bravo!
    It was a huge issue in 1993 - looking back at the polls, the Tories took two big hits, one in late 1992 after Black Wednesday (low 40s to mid 30s) and another after the March 1993 VAT on Fuel budget (mid 30s to high 20s). Labour was relentless in attacking the issue thru 1993 until it was actually introduced in 1994, and the sudden rise in fuel bills affected everyone so it was big news. The Tories polled below 30% almost continuously thereafter thru 1997.

    edit/ Tony Blair only became leader in summer 1994; contrary to common recollections nowadays, his taking the helm came well after the Tories' doom was predestined, at least by the polls.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,918
    GIN1138 said:

    Michael Fallon to become CotE after the election (if Tezza wins) ?

    Probably not, if they suddenly develop plans to raise income tax on June 9th.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Ishmael_Z said:

    That's right, we laugh in the face of the notion that "My word is my bond." My favourite gag is that one about "no plans to privatise the NHS" - cracks me up every time.
    Most GP Practices are private businesses.

    Most drugs are discovered and provided by private businesses.

    Most hospitals are built by private businesses.

    Most hospital equipment is designed and built by private businesses.

    What's not to like?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232
    I'm hoping the Tories can get rid of some of the mad tax breaks non PAYErs get at the moment.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,675
    Roughly what proportion of votes cast were postal in 2015? My vague recollection is 20%, but I can't see a firm figure. And presumably it varies hugely by type of constituency.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,735
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm hoping the Tories can get rid of some of the mad tax breaks non PAYErs get at the moment.

    such as?
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    GIN1138 said:

    Michael Fallon to become CotE after the election (if Tezza wins) ?

    Tezza will win Maidenhead.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    HYUFD said:

    A plan for a more prosperous Britain than Labour that says nothing about Brexit being the cause of that and it also includes the words 'stronger' ie with reclaimed sovereignty and fairer ie with fairer and more controlled immigration rules

    When you promise more prosperity that's what you're promising. When you are promising Brexit that is what you are promising. When you are promising more prosperity and Brexit then that is what you are promising. There really is no getting round that, I'm afraid. But if you wish to believe there is, that's fine by me!

  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191

    I'm not sure why you're still bothering, don't you realise that you've been rumbled?
    oh go on, what's the story?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232
    eek said:

    such as?
    That NI stuff Hammond had to roll back from.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if anyone really thinks that 'pushing the button ' is actually going to come into play in the next five years and should be the deciding factor in this election.

    As noted on QT last night, Trident is a multi-Parliament commitment.

    The question is less whether Corbyn would push the button in the next 5 years (we know he wouldn't) but whether he will decommission it in the next 5 years so the next PM couldn't
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,533
    surbiton said:

    FAKE NEWS.

    This is The Telegraph headline.

    No income tax rises for high earners under Tory government, minister reveals

    Read for yourself. No such words like "across the spectrum". Stop making it up.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/02/no-income-tax-rises-high-earners-tory-government-minister-reveals/

    No such assurance has been given about basic rate taxpayers.
    Eh? This is from the article:

    "Asked if high earners could confidently vote Conservative next week, safe in the knowledge that their income tax would not go up, Sir Michael said: “Yes. You’ve seen our record..."
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,107

    Tezza will win Maidenhead.
    ...she needs to hold her other five seats to keep her majority?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,735

    That would seem to say that it doesn't. Since you need your employer to sign the form...
    See my edit afterwards - I suspect you need to enter the interviewer as the employer....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,550

    Roughly what proportion of votes cast were postal in 2015? My vague recollection is 20%, but I can't see a firm figure. And presumably it varies hugely by type of constituency.

    Thanet South - votes cast 46,357 of which 8,308 were postal - nearly 18%
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,675
    alex. said:

    I thought everyone had stopped doing phone polls? Do we have split for this election?
    Only one institute is still doing them regularly, but Survation is doing them now and then. They used to be thought the gold standard vs panel surveys, but I'm not sure if that's still the case as there are well-known difficulties in identifyng people by mobile.

    TSE (I think) speculated that ICM will be relatively good for the Tories as Boon had put out tweets expressing scepticism about good polls for Labour and also indivcating that he'd seen data currently coming inb for ICM.
  • Probably chasing after neighbouring, highly marginal Dewsbury.
    The Tories have absolutely no chance of displacing long-serving Barry Sheerman in rock solid Labour safe Huddersfield itself.

    BTW Earlier in the campaign, I backed Labour to hold Dewsbury, from where I am typing this, at odds of 4/1 which have now narrowed to 2/1. It smacks of being a lost cause for the Tories, where for such a winnable seat they selected a 22 year old inexperienced supermarket assistant ..... I mean no disrespect, but this is a seat they should have gobbled up with ease
    Yep, Dewsbury. William Hague also. The local press don't seem to be impressed with Theresa either.

    http://www.examiner.co.uk/news/theresa-may-conservative-dewsbury-election-13131993
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,636
    nielh said:

    exactly: better that brexit is owned by the tories rather than fudged by labour which would only embolden the forces behind it.
    Cant bring myself to put my x in the box for the tories though.
    Well, my decision was easy because my MP is a Labour Brexiteer, so I just moved on to the LD. Might have had a dilemma if the Tory had been a Remainer though!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,107
    edited June 2017

    Roughly what proportion of votes cast were postal in 2015? My vague recollection is 20%, but I can't see a firm figure. And presumably it varies hugely by type of constituency.

    Some analysis put it recently at around 20%. The take up of PVs is about 16% and the GE return rate about 83%, of which 2-3% are disqualified (most for not filling in the ID forms properly or not matching the application form). So an 80% turnout compared to ?<65% at the polling station.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited June 2017

    Eh? This is from the article:

    "Asked if high earners could confidently vote Conservative next week, safe in the knowledge that their income tax would not go up, Sir Michael said: “Yes. You’ve seen our record..."
    That is about high earners. Where is the assurance about basic rate taxpayers ? When you are in a hole.....
  • isamisam Posts: 41,317

    Only one institute is still doing them regularly, but Survation is doing them now and then. They used to be thought the gold standard vs panel surveys, but I'm not sure if that's still the case as there are well-known difficulties in identifyng people by mobile.

    TSE (I think) speculated that ICM will be relatively good for the Tories as Boon had put out tweets expressing scepticism about good polls for Labour and also indivcating that he'd seen data currently coming inb for ICM.
    ooh
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Cameron on media and public policy before election
    PROMISE : "I don't want us to invent policies for newspaper headlines. I want us to get it right for the long term."

    Cameron once he became prime minister
    REALITY : The Tories have repeatedly been accused of 'headline grabbing' with their plans to scrap the Human Rights Act. The move came after a string of lurid news stories about terror suspects abusing the law. Campaigners argue these are rare and it would be dangerous to deprive honest Brits of their rights just to appear tough on terror. More than 200,000 people signed an online petition demanding the issue goes to a national vote.

    I hope that they are paying you at least the minimum wage given how much time you are spending on here. And on a Saturday too.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422

    The reason tories make promises and break them is because tory voters don't care that they lie because in everyday life they do the same.

    How else do you think we secure a supply of babies to eat?
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    oh go on, what's the story?
    Astroturfer, natch.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,107

    That would seem to say that it doesn't. Since you need your employer to sign the form...
    Since they are going for a job just make sure that the company didn't give them the interview date until after the closing date for normal postal/proxy votes! Otherwise they risk not getting the job as well as not getting the vote.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,094

    There is no evidence for that.
    It is reported in the papers on a regular basis, we know our lot and the yanks don't report it surprisingly. Still for the Tories on here, it is just collateral damage , a few foreigners who don't count in the grand scheme of things.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,094
    surbiton said:

    Hague is talking about the SNP. The election must be close.

    Have they brought him out of the crypt.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Eh? This is from the article:

    "Asked if high earners could confidently vote Conservative next week, safe in the knowledge that their income tax would not go up, Sir Michael said: “Yes. You’ve seen our record..."
    Yes - it's a classic case of answering a specific question and mischievous newspapers trying to expand it to raise an issue about something that wasn't asked.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Well, my decision was easy because my MP is a Labour Brexiteer, so I just moved on to the LD. Might have had a dilemma if the Tory had been a Remainer though!
    You do realise that how people campaigned before last June is irrelevant now that the people decided and A50 is invoked... Don't you?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    Scott_P said:

    As noted on QT last night, Trident is a multi-Parliament commitment.

    The question is less whether Corbyn would push the button in the next 5 years (we know he wouldn't) but whether he will decommission it in the next 5 years so the next PM couldn't

    The Trident and nukes equivocations from Corbyn crystallise the concerns voters have about him and security policy generally that his past create. Put simply, people worry he will not protect them and their families to the extent May will. And that is what will ensure Labour loses. In Brexit Britainyou may be able to win from the left, but you cannot equivocate or be regarded as weak on security and defence issues.

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    From the Guardian

    May was also asked whether she was insulting the public’s intelligence “with stupid slogans?” “I’ve been running a campaign which has been setting out the very clear choice the British people have and the very real challenges the government faces over the next five years,” she said. “It’s an important of change for our country, that choice is between a strong and stable leadership… or Jeremy Corbyn and a coalition of chaos.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191

    Astroturfer, natch.
    He'll be gone by the 9th, whatever the result. shrugs.
  • The Tories are a further 2 seats lower on the spreads this morning at 360 - 366 seats. Day after day, they keep on sliding lower and lower. Nothing and nobody seems able to halt their decline which is all most depressing for members of the Blue Team.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,107
    IanB2 said:

    Some analysis put it recently at around 20%. The take up of PVs is about 16% and the GE return rate about 83%, of which 2-3% are disqualified (most for not filling in the ID forms properly or not matching the application form). So an 80% turnout compared to ?<65% at the polling station.</p>
    p.s. there is data on different levels of PV take up by seat here, which a PB'er helpfully pointed me towards last week. The big difference is that there are way more PVs in the North East, where the all-PV trials were held.

    http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/191861/Plymouth-UKPGE-electoral-data-report-final-WEB.pdf
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453


    Depends where you escape to.

    Yup. If your tunnel comes up within the field of fire of the machine guns, that might be described as sub-optimal
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    The Tories are a further 2 seats lower on the spreads this morning at 360 - 366 seats. Day after day, they keep on sliding lower and lower. Nothing and nobody seems able to halt their decline which is all most depressing for members of the Blue Team.

    They started at 390, right ?
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    FF43 said:

    From the Guardian

    May was also asked whether she was insulting the public’s intelligence “with stupid slogans?” “I’ve been running a campaign which has been setting out the very clear choice the British people have and the very real challenges the government faces over the next five years,” she said. “It’s an important of change for our country, that choice is between a strong and stable leadership… or Jeremy Corbyn and a coalition of chaos.

    That's discipline for you.

    Stick to the message through thick and thin.

    A characteristic not always seen nowadays.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,533

    The Tories are a further 2 seats lower on the spreads this morning at 360 - 366 seats. Day after day, they keep on sliding lower and lower. Nothing and nobody seems able to halt their decline which is all most depressing for members of the Blue Team.

    The voters will halt the decline when they turn out on 8th.

    Newstatesman this weekend has long article by editor on Labour campaign. Time after time he has quotes from MPs and activists saying how badly they are going to do in reality. West Bromwich, Don Valley and so on are all in play. On a "Cliff edge" is one description from a canvasser.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Simple SNP messaging for the last week

    https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/870546938793537536
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    edited June 2017

    The Tories are a further 2 seats lower on the spreads this morning at 360 - 366 seats. Day after day, they keep on sliding lower and lower. Nothing and nobody seems able to halt their decline which is all most depressing for members of the Blue Team.

    Midpoint 363. Majority 76 (78 if Bercow doesn't count). Depressing?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,094
    surbiton said:

    She was just asked just now and she gave no assurance that taxes will not be increased. I am not sure why Fallon said what he said.

    BBC News 24 is running this. This will run and run.
    Stupidity, trying to pretend he is a big shot and got his foot stuck in his mouth
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    isam said:

    A bit strange that UKIP didn't stand a better known candidate in Thanet South isn't it? They must have known there was a fair chance of scandal
    The Tory MP now under investigation is a former deputy leader of UKIP and UKIP had already said they would not put up candidates in seats where the sitting MP was clearly a Brexiteer.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,533

    The Trident and nukes equivocations from Corbyn crystallise the concerns voters have about him and security policy generally that his past create. Put simply, people worry he will not protect them and their families to the extent May will. And that is what will ensure Labour loses. In Brexit Britainyou may be able to win from the left, but you cannot equivocate or be regarded as weak on security and defence issues.

    Corbyn finally lost GE 2017 at around 9pm last night.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191

    The voters will halt the decline when they turn out on 8th.

    Newstatesman this weekend has long article by editor on Labour campaign. Time after time he has quotes from MPs and activists saying how badly they are going to do in reality. West Bromwich, Don Valley and so on are all in play. On a "Cliff edge" is one description from a canvasser.
    is there a link for this at all, please? or is it paper only
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,107

    Midpoint 363. Majority 76 (78 if Bercow doesn't count). Depressing?
    I would expect the betting to lag the polls, partly because punters take time to reflect on the polls and news, and partly because of the weight of money already on the table?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    edited June 2017

    The Tories are a further 2 seats lower on the spreads this morning at 360 - 366 seats. Day after day, they keep on sliding lower and lower. Nothing and nobody seems able to halt their decline which is all most depressing for members of the Blue Team.

    There will be a lag between an actual fall in the voters' intentions and showing up on the markets. The questions are whether the decline will continue into next week or possibly the decline has already halted but isn't showing up yet.

    And obviously whether the headline figures are correct. I am assuming the decline is real.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191

    Astroturfer, natch.
    In honesty, I was hoping for 'dog in a man suit'
  • isamisam Posts: 41,317

    The Tory MP now under investigation is a former deputy leader of UKIP and UKIP had already said they would not put up candidates in seats where the sitting MP was clearly a Brexiteer.
    Then why pick a candidate at all?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    FWIW May has not ruled out income taxrises:


    https://twitter.com/i/moments/870944674231353344
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232
    Hoey will win in Vauxhall
    McKinley will win in Thanet South &
    Woodcock will lose in Barrow.

    That's what I reckon !
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    isam said:

    Then why pick a candidate at all?
    UKIP candidate is the Reverend Stuart Piper
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    Serious question: how does this kind of behaviour by Boris Johnson go down with voters?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OcQFeKKXqw
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,533

    is there a link for this at all, please? or is it paper only
    Paper only at moment. I think they put stuff online a day or two after the magazine comes out to try and encourage buying it first.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884

    That's discipline for you.

    Stick to the message through thick and thin.

    A characteristic not always seen nowadays.
    I'm an on-message kind of guy, but I am not sure this is working for Theresa May. Having said that, I think she was boosted by Question Time last night. First of all by showing up and somewhat neutralising her previous no-shows and secondly by looking more sensible than robotic.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,479
    Mr. Quidder, it'd get me a 7 winner :)
This discussion has been closed.