politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Theresa May will be hoping for another polling industry fa
Comments
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I was quite impressed when my mother said she'd never heard of politicalbetting.comMarqueeMark said:
Voters might just think "bugger that, he's just talking his bets up...."?TheScreamingEagles said:
Turns out I received one yesterday, here in Dore.AlsoIndigo said:
Giving his hand a rest after signing all those letters to London residents telling them that "only the Libs" ... etctimmo said:I would imagine the polls we get today will continue to show a narrowing of the position. Polls taken after last night wont be available until Monday i presume.
I wo der if OGH is campaigning in C&W today
Very surreal getting a leaflet from Mike Smithson of politicalbetting.com telling me to vote Lib Dem to stop Labour winning Sheffield Hallam.0 -
Ye - I think you've got more reason to be worried in Tokyo though.Sandpit said:
What do you reckon, 75-80% of the world, by population?RobD said:
An alternate plot from the same website showing all places within 5500nm of ICN:Sandpit said:
My map has London and LA within 10% of the distance from Korea. 5,520 miles from London and 5,900 miles from LA (Using Seoul as the origin)IanB2 said:
Lol again. Sandpit supply your address so we can send you the atlas!Richard_Tyndall said:
London is nearly a thousand Km nearer to Pyonyang than LA is. Great circles and all that.Sandpit said:
From Pyongyang, London and LA are roughly equidistant.IanB2 said:
I suspect it is truer to say that they are close to developing one that can land as far away from where it is fired as is London?MaxPB said:
They are close to developing an ICBM which can reach London.Dadge said:
Your really think that North Korea might nuke the UK? I'll buy you an atlas for your birthday.MaxPB said:
The other way around.Dadge said:
You really think that the UK might nuke North Korea? You've been playing too many video games.MaxPB said:
Who knows with North Korea.Jonathan said:Wondering if anyone really thinks that 'pushing the button ' is actually going to come into play in the next five years and should be the deciding factor in this election.
But. I thought they were still struggling with California.
Edit: Not that I subscribe to the view that North Korea is in any danger of nuking London.
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=LHR-ICN-LAX&PM=b:disc7&MS=wls&MC=ICN&DU=mi&DM=5000
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?R=5500nm@ICN0 -
But the huge YouGov model is weighting by 2010 and 2015 turnout for the different demographic groups. If that model were applied with a higher youth turnout, the adjustment would presumably favour Labour.HYUFD said:I think we are more likely to see a Yougov and Mori and ORB and Survation failure than a polling industry failure as such, I think Comres, ICM, Kantar and Opinium will be pretty much spot on especially as they are more likely to weigh by 2015 turnout demographics. Yougov and Mori need to hope for a surge in youth turnout for Corbyn in 2017 compared to 2015 if they are to have a hope of being right
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My REALLY big issue with May is not that I disagree with her plan for Brexit. It's that she doesn't have one. She has been in post for nearly a year after the referendum result with Brexit being the totally dominant issue. She has done nothing effective in this time.SouthamObserver said:Yep - her call is to decide what kind of Brexit it will be. She has promised to make voters more prosperous and will be judged on that.
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Did he? What was it?RobD said:
Didn't Fallon say something definite though?FF43 said:
I believe that's the thinking. "I have come to the TV studios to say nothing definite about our tax plans."alex. said:
Is it not possible that this is just a tactic to try and get tax into the news? It doesn't matter whether it is a 'believable' pledge or not, anyone thinking about it is by default going to remember the alternative. Nobody is going to think "s*t the Tories might put tax up, better vote Labour". If anything it might actually help in some demographics if people don't believe it.malcolmg said:
Very deniable , "No Plans" is absolutely meaningless. Next week they will have plans and they will not be to help the poor.NickPalmer said:What do people make of this story?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/02/no-income-tax-rises-high-earners-tory-government-minister-reveals/
It seems odd for a minister who isn't the Chancellor to issue a previously denied taxation pledge a few days before an election. Deniable, perhaps?0 -
Bernie Sanders officially endorses Corbyn and Jezza sends him a text
https://mobile.twitter.com/liamyoung/status/8709315028880916480 -
Ur and Nineveh are worried!rcs1000 said:
Their missiles are targeting York, as the history books in North Korea are somewhat out of date.Richard_Tyndall said:
London is nearly a thousand Km nearer to Pyonyang than LA is. Great circles and all that.Sandpit said:
From Pyongyang, London and LA are roughly equidistant.IanB2 said:
I suspect it is truer to say that they are close to developing one that can land as far away from where it is fired as is London?MaxPB said:
They are close to developing an ICBM which can reach London.Dadge said:
Your really think that North Korea might nuke the UK? I'll buy you an atlas for your birthday.MaxPB said:
The other way around.Dadge said:
You really think that the UK might nuke North Korea? You've been playing too many video games.MaxPB said:
Who knows with North Korea.Jonathan said:Wondering if anyone really thinks that 'pushing the button ' is actually going to come into play in the next five years and should be the deciding factor in this election.
But. I thought they were still struggling with California.
Edit: Not that I subscribe to the view that North Korea is in any danger of nuking London.0 -
Just out of interest and a general question rather than related to OGH specifically. If an individual decides to campaign for a party and spends vast amounts of money on that campaign but has no direct links to the party, how is that accounted for by the Electoral Commission in terms of spend - particularly if the material is referencing a specific constituency as you say this leaflet is?TheScreamingEagles said:
Turns out I received one yesterday, here in Dore.AlsoIndigo said:
Giving his hand a rest after signing all those letters to London residents telling them that "only the Libs" ... etctimmo said:I would imagine the polls we get today will continue to show a narrowing of the position. Polls taken after last night wont be available until Monday i presume.
I wo der if OGH is campaigning in C&W today
Very surreal getting a leaflet from Mike Smithson of politicalbetting.com telling me to vote Lib Dem to stop Labour winning Sheffield Hallam.0 -
No he didn't. He said "across the income specrum".surbiton said:
There were a big exchange of posts in the middle of the night after this post of mine.surbiton said:I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.
So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.
I maintain my position. Unlike GE2015, when the Tories specifically ruled out Income Tax and NIC increases, this time they have not.
Michael Fallon specifically ruled out increases for higher rate taxpayers. Therefore, taxes will be increased on BASIC RATE taxpayers.0 -
They come across as being written by a punter who wants the reader to help his bet winTheScreamingEagles said:
Turns out I received one yesterday, here in Dore.AlsoIndigo said:
Giving his hand a rest after signing all those letters to London residents telling them that "only the Libs" ... etctimmo said:I would imagine the polls we get today will continue to show a narrowing of the position. Polls taken after last night wont be available until Monday i presume.
I wo der if OGH is campaigning in C&W today
Very surreal getting a leaflet from Mike Smithson of politicalbetting.com telling me to vote Lib Dem to stop Labour winning Sheffield Hallam.0 -
How do you know?FF43 said:
My REALLY big issue with May is not that I disagree with her plan for Brexit. It's that she doesn't have one. She has been in post for nearly a year after the referendum result with Brexit being the totally dominant issue. She has done nothing effective in this time.SouthamObserver said:Yep - her call is to decide what kind of Brexit it will be. She has promised to make voters more prosperous and will be judged on that.
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These are pretty much my own views, Niel.nielh said:Any incoming government is going to face two impossible challenges: Brexit and reducing the deficit. When you add to this the problem of meeting voter apparent expectations for improving living standards etc (they are turning their nose up at the one vaguely sensible plan to deal with these issues), you realise that no politician can possibly square all these circles. Corbyn is effectively the first of many fantasists. So its pretty much uncharted territory.
Although generally left leaning, I'd marginally prefer a Conservative government because I want them to own Brexit.0 -
I wonder if Fallon will be Hammonds successormalcolmg said:
Very deniable , "No Plans" is absolutely meaningless. Next week they will have plans and they will not be to help the poor.NickPalmer said:What do people make of this story?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/02/no-income-tax-rises-high-earners-tory-government-minister-reveals/
It seems odd for a minister who isn't the Chancellor to issue a previously denied taxation pledge a few days before an election. Deniable, perhaps?
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Read May's intro to the Tory manifesto.HYUFD said:
Nope May said there were some advantages in staying in the EU but she would see Brexit through as the British people wanted with no free movement, no 100 billion euros to the EU and departure from the single market and if she wins a majority she will have a mandate for that from the British peopleSouthamObserver said:
Yep - her call is to decide what kind of Brexit it will be. She has promised to make voters more prosperous and will be judged on that.Charles said:
The British people made the decision to leave and, like a good public servant, she will do what her employers instructRoger said:FPT.
Dimbleby asked the telling question;
'You say you have called the election because of Brexit.
Last week you said 'Leaving the EU would make us MORE prosperous'
Last year you said' Leaving the EU would make us LESS prosperous'
"What's changed?"
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Yeah but we can all agree those warmongering imperial running dogs in Nineveh deserve it.MarqueeMark said:
Ur and Nineveh are worried!rcs1000 said:
Their missiles are targeting York, as the history books in North Korea are somewhat out of date.Richard_Tyndall said:
London is nearly a thousand Km nearer to Pyonyang than LA is. Great circles and all that.Sandpit said:
From Pyongyang, London and LA are roughly equidistant.IanB2 said:
I suspect it is truer to say that they are close to developing one that can land as far away from where it is fired as is London?MaxPB said:
They are close to developing an ICBM which can reach London.Dadge said:
Your really think that North Korea might nuke the UK? I'll buy you an atlas for your birthday.MaxPB said:
The other way around.Dadge said:
You really think that the UK might nuke North Korea? You've been playing too many video games.MaxPB said:
Who knows with North Korea.Jonathan said:Wondering if anyone really thinks that 'pushing the button ' is actually going to come into play in the next five years and should be the deciding factor in this election.
But. I thought they were still struggling with California.
Edit: Not that I subscribe to the view that North Korea is in any danger of nuking London.0 -
Nobody had a plan for Brexit.Richard_Tyndall said:
How do you know?FF43 said:
My REALLY big issue with May is not that I disagree with her plan for Brexit. It's that she doesn't have one. She has been in post for nearly a year after the referendum result with Brexit being the totally dominant issue. She has done nothing effective in this time.SouthamObserver said:Yep - her call is to decide what kind of Brexit it will be. She has promised to make voters more prosperous and will be judged on that.
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So another U-turn then ? If they had no intention of increasing taxes they would have said so in the manifesto like in 2015.nunu said:
No he didn't. He said "across the income specrum".surbiton said:
There were a big exchange of posts in the middle of the night after this post of mine.surbiton said:I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.
So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.
I maintain my position. Unlike GE2015, when the Tories specifically ruled out Income Tax and NIC increases, this time they have not.
Michael Fallon specifically ruled out increases for higher rate taxpayers. Therefore, taxes will be increased on BASIC RATE taxpayers.0 -
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What to make of my 90 minute foray into Kingston and Surbiton on a balmy Thursday evening? Norra lot to be honest. Loads of folk out (school hols? still at work? But twas ever thus) and we were only calling on supposedly target/uncertain voter in a (marginal?) LibDem ward. Certainly found a number of apparent 2015 Cons moving to the LibDems but also previously uncertain/uncommitted going blue. Other members of our group had more positive encounters.
The 'resident' team felt reasonably sanguine but with caution.
I'll probably be going back on Monday.
If forced to predict (but bloody stupid to do so on such a small sample), I guess I would plump for narrow Tory hold.0 -
Actually lots of people had extensively thought out plans for Brexit. Like everyone else I have no idea what May's plans are but that doesn't mean she doesn't have one.Peter_the_Punter said:
Nobody had a plan for Brexit.Richard_Tyndall said:
How do you know?FF43 said:
My REALLY big issue with May is not that I disagree with her plan for Brexit. It's that she doesn't have one. She has been in post for nearly a year after the referendum result with Brexit being the totally dominant issue. She has done nothing effective in this time.SouthamObserver said:Yep - her call is to decide what kind of Brexit it will be. She has promised to make voters more prosperous and will be judged on that.
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All it proves is that there's no solidarity between punters holding rival bets (like me).isam said:
They come across as being written by a punter who wants the reader to help his bet winTheScreamingEagles said:
Turns out I received one yesterday, here in Dore.AlsoIndigo said:
Giving his hand a rest after signing all those letters to London residents telling them that "only the Libs" ... etctimmo said:I would imagine the polls we get today will continue to show a narrowing of the position. Polls taken after last night wont be available until Monday i presume.
I wo der if OGH is campaigning in C&W today
Very surreal getting a leaflet from Mike Smithson of politicalbetting.com telling me to vote Lib Dem to stop Labour winning Sheffield Hallam.
I feel vaguely betrayed by this attempt to sabotage my book.0 -
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Not a u-turn the line has always been no intention, but they're not ruling it out unlike in 2015. That means for the short of thinking that hopefully taxes won't have to be raised but if it becomes necessary they're willing to do so. Not that they're planning to do so.surbiton said:
So another U-turn then ? If they had no intention of increasing taxes they would have said so in the manifesto like in 2015.nunu said:
No he didn't. He said "across the income specrum".surbiton said:
There were a big exchange of posts in the middle of the night after this post of mine.surbiton said:I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.
So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.
I maintain my position. Unlike GE2015, when the Tories specifically ruled out Income Tax and NIC increases, this time they have not.
Michael Fallon specifically ruled out increases for higher rate taxpayers. Therefore, taxes will be increased on BASIC RATE taxpayers.0 -
Mike's leaflets are part of the official Lib Dem campaign, there's rules/laws to stop the scenario you're talking about.Richard_Tyndall said:
Just out of interest and a general question rather than related to OGH specifically. If an individual decides to campaign for a party and spends vast amounts of money on that campaign but has no direct links to the party, how is that accounted for by the Electoral Commission in terms of spend - particularly if the material is referencing a specific constituency as you say this leaflet is?TheScreamingEagles said:
Turns out I received one yesterday, here in Dore.AlsoIndigo said:
Giving his hand a rest after signing all those letters to London residents telling them that "only the Libs" ... etctimmo said:I would imagine the polls we get today will continue to show a narrowing of the position. Polls taken after last night wont be available until Monday i presume.
I wo der if OGH is campaigning in C&W today
Very surreal getting a leaflet from Mike Smithson of politicalbetting.com telling me to vote Lib Dem to stop Labour winning Sheffield Hallam.
I think we all want to avoid the Americanisation of our politics where shadowy groups spend lots of money in races.0 -
He said income tax and the VAT pledge has already been made, so one assumes NI is going up. My guess is that NI will go up by 1p for both employees and employers and they will use the money to pay for the £8bn NHS pledge.surbiton said:
So another U-turn then ? If they had no intention of increasing taxes they would have said so in the manifesto like in 2015.nunu said:
No he didn't. He said "across the income specrum".surbiton said:
There were a big exchange of posts in the middle of the night after this post of mine.surbiton said:I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.
So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.
I maintain my position. Unlike GE2015, when the Tories specifically ruled out Income Tax and NIC increases, this time they have not.
Michael Fallon specifically ruled out increases for higher rate taxpayers. Therefore, taxes will be increased on BASIC RATE taxpayers.0 -
She could have said in a straight-forward manner that taxes will not be increased. She skirted that.
TAX BOMBSHELL0 -
There were actually *many* different visions of our new and wonderful future.Peter_the_Punter said:
Nobody had a plan for Brexit.Richard_Tyndall said:
How do you know?FF43 said:
My REALLY big issue with May is not that I disagree with her plan for Brexit. It's that she doesn't have one. She has been in post for nearly a year after the referendum result with Brexit being the totally dominant issue. She has done nothing effective in this time.SouthamObserver said:Yep - her call is to decide what kind of Brexit it will be. She has promised to make voters more prosperous and will be judged on that.
That's also a problem in its own way. But picking our route back through occupied territory to Blighty is a problem I'm happier to contend with than still being a POW.0 -
Why are the other parties not pointing out Labour policies to increasing the tax rates does not mean increasing the tax take. Instead the government would have to try to increase government's borrowing instead.
If the government could raise the money on the market, the interest rate on the borrowing would rise, as would the interest rate on existing borrowing as it matured and had to be renewed.
More spending on higher wages for public workers and not charging for tuition fees is not free money. The borrowing has to be paid for by taxpayers over time. Live now pay later can only be sustained for a limited period oftime.
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Yep as I say I wasn't referring to Mike specifically, it was just hearing of his leaflets reminded me of a question I have had for a long time.TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike's leaflets are part of the official Lib Dem campaign, there's rules/laws to stop the scenario you're talking about.Richard_Tyndall said:
Just out of interest and a general question rather than related to OGH specifically. If an individual decides to campaign for a party and spends vast amounts of money on that campaign but has no direct links to the party, how is that accounted for by the Electoral Commission in terms of spend - particularly if the material is referencing a specific constituency as you say this leaflet is?TheScreamingEagles said:
Turns out I received one yesterday, here in Dore.AlsoIndigo said:
Giving his hand a rest after signing all those letters to London residents telling them that "only the Libs" ... etctimmo said:I would imagine the polls we get today will continue to show a narrowing of the position. Polls taken after last night wont be available until Monday i presume.
I wo der if OGH is campaigning in C&W today
Very surreal getting a leaflet from Mike Smithson of politicalbetting.com telling me to vote Lib Dem to stop Labour winning Sheffield Hallam.
I think we all want to avoid the Americanisation of our politics where shadowy groups spend lots of money in races.
I still don't understand how this works though. I mean I suppose someone could in theory accidently sabotage a campaign in a constituency by producing vast amounts of literature that far exceeded spending limits, thinking they were helping the candidate but in fact getting them into deep trouble. I doubt 1 in a 1000 people actually know the law on this so a candidate could find themselves in trouble when entirely innocent.0 -
Yes, that's the obvious rejoinder - "You've half-reversed the pledge not to pledge but what about the other half? Aren't you all over the place?"HYUFD said:
You can increase NI instead for example without a flip flopHenry said:Lynton Crosby seems to have forgotten:
1) If in a hole stop digging.
2) A message of 'flip-flopping' can be highly damaging - as seen during the John Kerry's presidential campaign.
We already had: TM the 'Remainer' organising 'Brexit'; TM the PM saying 'no election' then calling an election; and, deviation from the brand new manifesto with the social care U-turn and on social housing.
But today: 'No increase on income tax" .... Labour supporter will be searching for their flip-flops to start waving about!
But at this stage the issue is what to concentrate on, and I'm not sure that getting into that muddle is the priority.0 -
If we had had no polls since the election was called, would anybody think this election was close?
At the start of the campaign, Labour were despondent. Now they might be slightly less despondent - but how many Labour activists and candidates are going "You know what, we could nick this...."? Has anybody detected a sea-change away from last month's local election results? I may have missed it, but I just don't see anyone, anywhere thinking the ground campaign mirrors the dramatic polling shifts.
On Corbyn and nukes - it feeds into the general unease on the issue of security. We are most likely not going to need nukes to use on ISIS. But Manchester happening during the campaign feeds into the general sense of the security of the nation being a deep concern. And frankly, however underwhelming you might think May has been in this campaign, as a former Home Secretary who kept us safe for 6 years, she has Corbyn beaten on every aspect of defending the Realm.
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Well yes, I suppose there must have been almost as many plans as there were voters but I really meant some kind of coherent unified plan representing the Leave consensus, and preferably published before the referendum.Richard_Tyndall said:
Actually lots of people had extensively thought out plans for Brexit. Like everyone else I have no idea what May's plans are but that doesn't mean she doesn't have one.Peter_the_Punter said:
Nobody had a plan for Brexit.Richard_Tyndall said:
How do you know?FF43 said:
My REALLY big issue with May is not that I disagree with her plan for Brexit. It's that she doesn't have one. She has been in post for nearly a year after the referendum result with Brexit being the totally dominant issue. She has done nothing effective in this time.SouthamObserver said:Yep - her call is to decide what kind of Brexit it will be. She has promised to make voters more prosperous and will be judged on that.
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I think Clinton is even more crap than May. He lost to her by 4 million votes in the Primary.HYUFD said:Bernie Sanders officially endorses Corbyn and Jezza sends him a text
https://mobile.twitter.com/liamyoung/status/8709315028880916480 -
She was just asked just now and she gave no assurance that taxes will not be increased. I am not sure why Fallon said what he said.NickPalmer said:
Yes, that's the obvious rejoinder - "You've half-reversed the pledge not to pledge but what about the other half? Aren't you all over the place?"HYUFD said:
You can increase NI instead for example without a flip flopHenry said:Lynton Crosby seems to have forgotten:
1) If in a hole stop digging.
2) A message of 'flip-flopping' can be highly damaging - as seen during the John Kerry's presidential campaign.
We already had: TM the 'Remainer' organising 'Brexit'; TM the PM saying 'no election' then calling an election; and, deviation from the brand new manifesto with the social care U-turn and on social housing.
But today: 'No increase on income tax" .... Labour supporter will be searching for their flip-flops to start waving about!
But at this stage the issue is what to concentrate on, and I'm not sure that getting into that muddle is the priority.
BBC News 24 is running this. This will run and run.0 -
She's referred to the JHA opt-out and opt back in again strategy a few times in public as well as in the dinner with Juncker.Richard_Tyndall said:
Actually lots of people had extensively thought out plans for Brexit. Like everyone else I have no idea what May's plans are but that doesn't mean she doesn't have one.Peter_the_Punter said:
Nobody had a plan for Brexit.Richard_Tyndall said:
How do you know?FF43 said:
My REALLY big issue with May is not that I disagree with her plan for Brexit. It's that she doesn't have one. She has been in post for nearly a year after the referendum result with Brexit being the totally dominant issue. She has done nothing effective in this time.SouthamObserver said:Yep - her call is to decide what kind of Brexit it will be. She has promised to make voters more prosperous and will be judged on that.
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I haven't ruled out punching you in the face, but It is very unlikely I will ever do it.surbiton said:
So another U-turn then ? If they had no intention of increasing taxes they would have said so in the manifesto like in 2015.nunu said:
No he didn't. He said "across the income specrum".surbiton said:
There were a big exchange of posts in the middle of the night after this post of mine.surbiton said:I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.
So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.
I maintain my position. Unlike GE2015, when the Tories specifically ruled out Income Tax and NIC increases, this time they have not.
Michael Fallon specifically ruled out increases for higher rate taxpayers. Therefore, taxes will be increased on BASIC RATE taxpayers.
Just because you don't rule something out that doesn't mean you are planning on that eventuality.0 -
Mr Dancer probably begs to differ!Richard_Tyndall said:
Yeah but we can all agree those warmongering imperial running dogs in Nineveh deserve it.MarqueeMark said:
Ur and Nineveh are worried!rcs1000 said:
Their missiles are targeting York, as the history books in North Korea are somewhat out of date.Richard_Tyndall said:
London is nearly a thousand Km nearer to Pyonyang than LA is. Great circles and all that.Sandpit said:
From Pyongyang, London and LA are roughly equidistant.IanB2 said:
I suspect it is truer to say that they are close to developing one that can land as far away from where it is fired as is London?MaxPB said:
They are close to developing an ICBM which can reach London.Dadge said:
Your really think that North Korea might nuke the UK? I'll buy you an atlas for your birthday.MaxPB said:
The other way around.Dadge said:
You really think that the UK might nuke North Korea? You've been playing too many video games.MaxPB said:
Who knows with North Korea.Jonathan said:Wondering if anyone really thinks that 'pushing the button ' is actually going to come into play in the next five years and should be the deciding factor in this election.
But. I thought they were still struggling with California.
Edit: Not that I subscribe to the view that North Korea is in any danger of nuking London.0 -
So somebody not saying "I won't do X" is exactly the same as them saying "I will do X"?surbiton said:
There were a big exchange of posts in the middle of the night after this post of mine.surbiton said:I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.
So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.
I maintain my position. Unlike GE2015, when the Tories specifically ruled out Income Tax and NIC increases, this time they have not.
Michael Fallon specifically ruled out increases for higher rate taxpayers. Therefore, taxes will be increased on BASIC RATE taxpayers.
OK. Whatevs.0 -
She did not give any assurance about Income Tax payers other than general platitudes about what a good party the Tories are about taxes.MaxPB said:
Obviously, because they want to put up NI.surbiton said:She could have said in a straight-forward manner that taxes will not be increased. She skirted that.
TAX BOMBSHELL
The Tories have form on this matter. Thatcher's denial about VAT followed by increase from 8% to 15% in just a few weeks. Major also increased NIC from 9% to 11% after denying it.0 -
We're faced with a whole series of tough choices going forward. However the voters are clearly fatigued after ten years of s***. I can't see this ending well. We need a lucky Brexit and leader with exceptional foresight. Doesn't seem likely.0
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Except in 2015, the Tories specifically said there will be no increase. This time the silence is deafening.ThreeQuidder said:
So somebody not saying "I won't do X" is exactly the same as them saying "I will do X"?surbiton said:
There were a big exchange of posts in the middle of the night after this post of mine.surbiton said:I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.
So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.
I maintain my position. Unlike GE2015, when the Tories specifically ruled out Income Tax and NIC increases, this time they have not.
Michael Fallon specifically ruled out increases for higher rate taxpayers. Therefore, taxes will be increased on BASIC RATE taxpayers.
OK. Whatevs.0 -
I thought everyone had stopped doing phone polls? Do we have split for this election?nunu said:0 -
Escape is escape.Peter_the_Punter said:
Well yes, I suppose there must have been almost as many plans as there were voters but I really meant some kind of coherent unified plan representing the Leave consensus, and preferably published before the referendum.Richard_Tyndall said:
Actually lots of people had extensively thought out plans for Brexit. Like everyone else I have no idea what May's plans are but that doesn't mean she doesn't have one.Peter_the_Punter said:
Nobody had a plan for Brexit.Richard_Tyndall said:
How do you know?FF43 said:
My REALLY big issue with May is not that I disagree with her plan for Brexit. It's that she doesn't have one. She has been in post for nearly a year after the referendum result with Brexit being the totally dominant issue. She has done nothing effective in this time.SouthamObserver said:Yep - her call is to decide what kind of Brexit it will be. She has promised to make voters more prosperous and will be judged on that.
The rest is detail.0 -
Only a stupid person uses violence as a means of giving an example.nunu said:
I haven't ruled out punching you in the face, but It is very unlikely I will ever do it.surbiton said:
So another U-turn then ? If they had no intention of increasing taxes they would have said so in the manifesto like in 2015.nunu said:
No he didn't. He said "across the income specrum".surbiton said:
There were a big exchange of posts in the middle of the night after this post of mine.surbiton said:I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.
So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.
I maintain my position. Unlike GE2015, when the Tories specifically ruled out Income Tax and NIC increases, this time they have not.
Michael Fallon specifically ruled out increases for higher rate taxpayers. Therefore, taxes will be increased on BASIC RATE taxpayers.
Just because you don't rule something out that doesn't mean you are planning on that eventuality.0 -
Actually thinking about it I wonder if you have mixed up Thatcher's "not planned" VAT rise with Major's "not planned" NIC rise? Lamont raised VAT from 15% to 17.5% in 1991, i.e. before the election. During the election there were "no plans" to raise NI. Then in 1993, up it went.IanB2 said:
For older readers, we remember "no plans" as John Major's promise on VAT, before he put it up.malcolmg said:
Very deniable , "No Plans" is absolutely meaningless. Next week they will have plans and they will not be to help the poor.NickPalmer said:What do people make of this story?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/02/no-income-tax-rises-high-earners-tory-government-minister-reveals/
It seems odd for a minister who isn't the Chancellor to issue a previously denied taxation pledge a few days before an election. Deniable, perhaps?
But reading the article the absolutely key word in the promise is "income" just before "tax".
Like you, it was Major I immediately thought of when I saw the "no plans" ... that looked dangerous from the outset!0 -
How much is Twitter and Facebook going to be dominated next Thursday by Da Yoof complaining "Some old bastard at the Polling Station stopped me from voting for Corbyn. Said I wasn't registered or summat. And even if I was, I don't live in Islington. These fucking old people are robbing us of our democratic rights!"0
-
Ah the old take money from the NHS (because they have to pay higher NI) to give it back trick!MaxPB said:
He said income tax and the VAT pledge has already been made, so one assumes NI is going up. My guess is that NI will go up by 1p for both employees and employers and they will use the money to pay for the £8bn NHS pledge.surbiton said:
So another U-turn then ? If they had no intention of increasing taxes they would have said so in the manifesto like in 2015.nunu said:
No he didn't. He said "across the income specrum".surbiton said:
There were a big exchange of posts in the middle of the night after this post of mine.surbiton said:I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.
So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.
I maintain my position. Unlike GE2015, when the Tories specifically ruled out Income Tax and NIC increases, this time they have not.
Michael Fallon specifically ruled out increases for higher rate taxpayers. Therefore, taxes will be increased on BASIC RATE taxpayers.0 -
Well yes there were several. My personal preference was the flexcit plan developed and published by a group headed by Dr Richard North before the referendum was even announced. It almost certainly won't happen now because of this dumb preoccupation with immigration but just because no one has told you or me about May's plan doesn't mean there wasn't or isn't one.Peter_the_Punter said:
Well yes, I suppose there must have been almost as many plans as there were voters but I really meant some kind of coherent unified plan representing the Leave consensus, and preferably published before the referendum.Richard_Tyndall said:
Actually lots of people had extensively thought out plans for Brexit. Like everyone else I have no idea what May's plans are but that doesn't mean she doesn't have one.Peter_the_Punter said:
Nobody had a plan for Brexit.Richard_Tyndall said:
How do you know?FF43 said:
My REALLY big issue with May is not that I disagree with her plan for Brexit. It's that she doesn't have one. She has been in post for nearly a year after the referendum result with Brexit being the totally dominant issue. She has done nothing effective in this time.SouthamObserver said:Yep - her call is to decide what kind of Brexit it will be. She has promised to make voters more prosperous and will be judged on that.
0 -
-
In the future, the threat may come from biological terrorism but that needs finance and lots of it.
if I were Kim Jong-Il, I'd work on Yersinia pestis, the old Black Death. It's a bacterium so is currently susceptible to antibiotics. But with a little genetic modification, that can be surmounted. Tweak the virulence and pathogenicity, and bingo - the perfect terror weapon.
You could inset a suicide gene so it can be controlled, possibly a vulnerability to an immunisation procedure. But again that requires finance and expertise. Even so, it's a lot cheaper than nuclear.
IS won't have the finance or the expertise, but a rogue state might have.
Edit: The only way to nullify the threat would be a nuclear response. Unless Jezza's in control, of course.0 -
Derby North (Con) 5,925 more 18-29s then over 65's.
should it be a suprise Labour GAIN?0 -
I was thinking of these, before the 1992 election, after which Major put VAT on fuel:MyBurningEars said:
Actually thinking about it I wonder if you have mixed up Thatcher's "not planned" VAT rise with Major's "not planned" NIC rise? Lamont raised VAT from 15% to 17.5% in 1991, i.e. before the election. During the election there were "no plans" to raise NI. Then in 1993, up it went.IanB2 said:
For older readers, we remember "no plans" as John Major's promise on VAT, before he put it up.malcolmg said:
Very deniable , "No Plans" is absolutely meaningless. Next week they will have plans and they will not be to help the poor.NickPalmer said:What do people make of this story?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/02/no-income-tax-rises-high-earners-tory-government-minister-reveals/
It seems odd for a minister who isn't the Chancellor to issue a previously denied taxation pledge a few days before an election. Deniable, perhaps?
But reading the article the absolutely key word in the promise is "income" just before "tax".
Like you, it was Major I immediately thought of when I saw the "no plans" ... that looked dangerous from the outset!
"We have no plans to increase VAT...there will be no VAT increase."
John Major, House of Commons, 28 January 1992
"We have no plans and no need to increase the impact of VAT."
John Major, The Times, 20 March 1992
"We have no plans and no need to raise extra resources from value-added tax."
John Major, 23 March 19920 -
Mr. Mark, don't get me started on those far left Hittites!
Edited extra bit: for those unaware, I know Nineveh was Assyrian, but the Hittites were (from the little I know) more irksome.0 -
and don't forget the issue with using pencils.MarqueeMark said:How much is Twitter and Facebook going to be dominated next Thursday by Da Yoof complaining "Some old bastard at the Polling Station stopped me from voting for Corbyn. Said I wasn't registered or summat. And even if I was, I don't live in Islington. These fucking old people are robbing us of our democratic rights!"
0 -
I presume the people who said yesterday that there's no imprint are mistaken then?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike's leaflets are part of the official Lib Dem campaignRichard_Tyndall said:
Just out of interest and a general question rather than related to OGH specifically. If an individual decides to campaign for a party and spends vast amounts of money on that campaign but has no direct links to the party, how is that accounted for by the Electoral Commission in terms of spend - particularly if the material is referencing a specific constituency as you say this leaflet is?TheScreamingEagles said:
Turns out I received one yesterday, here in Dore.AlsoIndigo said:
Giving his hand a rest after signing all those letters to London residents telling them that "only the Libs" ... etctimmo said:I would imagine the polls we get today will continue to show a narrowing of the position. Polls taken after last night wont be available until Monday i presume.
I wo der if OGH is campaigning in C&W today
Very surreal getting a leaflet from Mike Smithson of politicalbetting.com telling me to vote Lib Dem to stop Labour winning Sheffield Hallam.0 -
The VAT pledge has been made. Where is the income tax pledge ? Do not spread fake news.MaxPB said:
He said income tax and the VAT pledge has already been made, so one assumes NI is going up. My guess is that NI will go up by 1p for both employees and employers and they will use the money to pay for the £8bn NHS pledge.surbiton said:
So another U-turn then ? If they had no intention of increasing taxes they would have said so in the manifesto like in 2015.nunu said:
No he didn't. He said "across the income specrum".surbiton said:
There were a big exchange of posts in the middle of the night after this post of mine.surbiton said:I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.
So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.
I maintain my position. Unlike GE2015, when the Tories specifically ruled out Income Tax and NIC increases, this time they have not.
Michael Fallon specifically ruled out increases for higher rate taxpayers. Therefore, taxes will be increased on BASIC RATE taxpayers.
There is no guarantee that taxes will not be increased. Unlike Labour, where it has been clearly been mentioned that taxes will not beincreased for anyone earning less than £80000.
From the Manifesto.
"Tax
David Cameron’s tax "triple lock”, which guaranteed there would be no rise in national insurance, VAT or income tax, will be scrapped in favour of a general statement of intent to lower tax and simplify the tax system.
There will be no increase in the level of VAT.
Income tax
A commitment to raise the tax-free personal allowance to £12,500 by 2020 will stay.
The Tories will also keep a commitment to raise the threshold for the 40p tax rate to £50,000 by 2020."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/conservative-manifesto-general-election-2017-key-points-policies/0 -
That subject will probably trend on Twitter all day #disenfranchisementMarqueeMark said:How much is Twitter and Facebook going to be dominated next Thursday by Da Yoof complaining "Some old bastard at the Polling Station stopped me from voting for Corbyn. Said I wasn't registered or summat. And even if I was, I don't live in Islington. These fucking old people are robbing us of our democratic rights!"
0 -
But are they going to be there? Presume this is Derby uni area?nunu said:Derby North (Con) 5,925 more 18-29s then over 65's.
should it be a suprise Labour GAIN?0 -
NI is regressive. The marginal rate falls to 2% on high incomes.MaxPB said:
Obviously, because they want to put up NI.surbiton said:She could have said in a straight-forward manner that taxes will not be increased. She skirted that.
TAX BOMBSHELL
Other parties could make a lot of this in the next 5 days:
Tory party: 'Tax the less-well off to subsidise the well-off'
but probably won't.0 -
Your memory trumps mine - bravo!IanB2 said:
I was thinking of these, before the 1992 election, after which Major put VAT on fuel:MyBurningEars said:
Actually thinking about it I wonder if you have mixed up Thatcher's "not planned" VAT rise with Major's "not planned" NIC rise? Lamont raised VAT from 15% to 17.5% in 1991, i.e. before the election. During the election there were "no plans" to raise NI. Then in 1993, up it went.IanB2 said:
For older readers, we remember "no plans" as John Major's promise on VAT, before he put it up.malcolmg said:
Very deniable , "No Plans" is absolutely meaningless. Next week they will have plans and they will not be to help the poor.NickPalmer said:What do people make of this story?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/02/no-income-tax-rises-high-earners-tory-government-minister-reveals/
It seems odd for a minister who isn't the Chancellor to issue a previously denied taxation pledge a few days before an election. Deniable, perhaps?
But reading the article the absolutely key word in the promise is "income" just before "tax".
Like you, it was Major I immediately thought of when I saw the "no plans" ... that looked dangerous from the outset!
"We have no plans to increase VAT...there will be no VAT increase."
John Major, House of Commons, 28 January 1992
"We have no plans and no need to increase the impact of VAT."
John Major, The Times, 20 March 1992
"We have no plans and no need to raise extra resources from value-added tax."
John Major, 23 March 19920 -
oh gawd, I can see it now, Sky and bbc running with stories of yoof complaining of "voter suppresion and intimidation" LOL.MarqueeMark said:How much is Twitter and Facebook going to be dominated next Thursday by Da Yoof complaining "Some old bastard at the Polling Station stopped me from voting for Corbyn. Said I wasn't registered or summat. And even if I was, I don't live in Islington. These fucking old people are robbing us of our democratic rights!"
0 -
Probably more likely the Conservatives try to do something to merge NI and Income tax. It's been talked about for so long maybe it'll actually happen. Although I still don't see how it gets around the major political challenge of basic rate taxpayers discovering that they pay 33.8% of most of their income to the Govt and higher rate tax payers pay 42%/47% on their extra. A lower gap than most people probably realise.0
-
Well meaning, but just embarrassing. ISIS scares the sh*t out of me, and it's silly pretending otherwise.isam said:
And on his broader point ("less Islam, please") if this were a Christian bombing we'd have the archEtonian of Canterbury and all the little bishops condemning it like fury. I'm not hearing a squeak from the Mufti of Tower Hamlets or the Ayatollah of Rotherham.0 -
Yes, I'm sure there were a number of good plans just as there were several good arguments in favour of Brexit, but the general pattern was of incoherence and muddle-headedness.Richard_Tyndall said:
Well yes there were several. My personal preference was the flexcit plan developed and published by a group headed by Dr Richard North before the referendum was even announced. It almost certainly won't happen now because of this dumb preoccupation with immigration but just because no one has told you or me about May's plan doesn't mean there wasn't or isn't one.Peter_the_Punter said:
Well yes, I suppose there must have been almost as many plans as there were voters but I really meant some kind of coherent unified plan representing the Leave consensus, and preferably published before the referendum.Richard_Tyndall said:
Actually lots of people had extensively thought out plans for Brexit. Like everyone else I have no idea what May's plans are but that doesn't mean she doesn't have one.Peter_the_Punter said:
Nobody had a plan for Brexit.Richard_Tyndall said:
How do you know?FF43 said:
My REALLY big issue with May is not that I disagree with her plan for Brexit. It's that she doesn't have one. She has been in post for nearly a year after the referendum result with Brexit being the totally dominant issue. She has done nothing effective in this time.SouthamObserver said:Yep - her call is to decide what kind of Brexit it will be. She has promised to make voters more prosperous and will be judged on that.
Not that the Remain side was very much better.0 -
Yes there is an imprintThreeQuidder said:
I presume the people who said yesterday that there's no imprint are mistaken then?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike's leaflets are part of the official Lib Dem campaignRichard_Tyndall said:
Just out of interest and a general question rather than related to OGH specifically. If an individual decides to campaign for a party and spends vast amounts of money on that campaign but has no direct links to the party, how is that accounted for by the Electoral Commission in terms of spend - particularly if the material is referencing a specific constituency as you say this leaflet is?TheScreamingEagles said:
Turns out I received one yesterday, here in Dore.AlsoIndigo said:
Giving his hand a rest after signing all those letters to London residents telling them that "only the Libs" ... etctimmo said:I would imagine the polls we get today will continue to show a narrowing of the position. Polls taken after last night wont be available until Monday i presume.
I wo der if OGH is campaigning in C&W today
Very surreal getting a leaflet from Mike Smithson of politicalbetting.com telling me to vote Lib Dem to stop Labour winning Sheffield Hallam.0 -
It won't be a tax bombshell because unlike labour the tories aren't promising the moon on a stick they are committed to clearing the deficit by 2025. they don't have unfunded spending plans like the Labour party which is giving everybody freebies that the rest of us have to pay for. Under labour my corporation tax hike is going to put a strain on my business that makes me wonder if it would be worth closing down if Corbyn gets in and i bet i'm not alone in that eithersurbiton said:She could have said in a straight-forward manner that taxes will not be increased. She skirted that.
TAX BOMBSHELL0 -
Can one still apply for a proxy vote? Surely someone knows. Family member, living S. Essex has a job interview in Manchester at midday on Thursday.MarqueeMark said:How much is Twitter and Facebook going to be dominated next Thursday by Da Yoof complaining "Some old bastard at the Polling Station stopped me from voting for Corbyn. Said I wasn't registered or summat. And even if I was, I don't live in Islington. These fucking old people are robbing us of our democratic rights!"
0 -
The "promise" simply indicates that the Tories will look to raise money in lots of other places but not from income tax. There are tons of potential candidates already identified by PB'ers.0
-
Davis has had to be re-educated first. He's working hard but is a slow learner so its taking time...FF43 said:
My REALLY big issue with May is not that I disagree with her plan for Brexit. It's that she doesn't have one. She has been in post for nearly a year after the referendum result with Brexit being the totally dominant issue. She has done nothing effective in this time.SouthamObserver said:Yep - her call is to decide what kind of Brexit it will be. She has promised to make voters more prosperous and will be judged on that.
0 -
Depends where you escape to.GeoffM said:
Escape is escape.Peter_the_Punter said:
Well yes, I suppose there must have been almost as many plans as there were voters but I really meant some kind of coherent unified plan representing the Leave consensus, and preferably published before the referendum.Richard_Tyndall said:
Actually lots of people had extensively thought out plans for Brexit. Like everyone else I have no idea what May's plans are but that doesn't mean she doesn't have one.Peter_the_Punter said:
Nobody had a plan for Brexit.Richard_Tyndall said:
How do you know?FF43 said:
My REALLY big issue with May is not that I disagree with her plan for Brexit. It's that she doesn't have one. She has been in post for nearly a year after the referendum result with Brexit being the totally dominant issue. She has done nothing effective in this time.SouthamObserver said:Yep - her call is to decide what kind of Brexit it will be. She has promised to make voters more prosperous and will be judged on that.
The rest is detail.
0 -
The problem with NI isn't the visible part its the 13.8% invisible part called Employers NI.alex. said:Probably more likely the Conservatives try to do something to merge NI and Income tax. It's been talked about for so long maybe it'll actually happen. Although I still don't see how it gets around the major political challenge of basic rate taxpayers discovering that they pay 33.8% of most of their income to the Govt and higher rate tax payers pay 41%/46% on their extra. A lower gap than most people probably realise.
When you look at any argument regarding the Gig economy or IR35 that is the but HMRC is really aiming for...0 -
Conservatives ALWAYS LIE . A basic premise of elections .nunu said:
I haven't ruled out punching you in the face, but It is very unlikely I will ever do it.surbiton said:
So another U-turn then ? If they had no intention of increasing taxes they would have said so in the manifesto like in 2015.nunu said:
No he didn't. He said "across the income specrum".surbiton said:
There were a big exchange of posts in the middle of the night after this post of mine.surbiton said:I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.
So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.
I maintain my position. Unlike GE2015, when the Tories specifically ruled out Income Tax and NIC increases, this time they have not.
Michael Fallon specifically ruled out increases for higher rate taxpayers. Therefore, taxes will be increased on BASIC RATE taxpayers.
Just because you don't rule something out that doesn't mean you are planning on that eventuality.-1 -
Nothing was as big as Thatcher's lie. She categorically denied increase in the VAT. Yet within weeks the rate was put up from 8% to 15%.MyBurningEars said:
Actually thinking about it I wonder if you have mixed up Thatcher's "not planned" VAT rise with Major's "not planned" NIC rise? Lamont raised VAT from 15% to 17.5% in 1991, i.e. before the election. During the election there were "no plans" to raise NI. Then in 1993, up it went.IanB2 said:
For older readers, we remember "no plans" as John Major's promise on VAT, before he put it up.malcolmg said:
Very deniable , "No Plans" is absolutely meaningless. Next week they will have plans and they will not be to help the poor.NickPalmer said:What do people make of this story?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/02/no-income-tax-rises-high-earners-tory-government-minister-reveals/
It seems odd for a minister who isn't the Chancellor to issue a previously denied taxation pledge a few days before an election. Deniable, perhaps?
But reading the article the absolutely key word in the promise is "income" just before "tax".
Like you, it was Major I immediately thought of when I saw the "no plans" ... that looked dangerous from the outset!
Tories have form on this.-1 -
I think the deadline has passed. Certainly on my local council website it has.OldKingCole said:
Can one still apply for a proxy vote? Surely someone knows. Family member, living S. Essex has a job interview in Manchester at midday on Thursday.MarqueeMark said:How much is Twitter and Facebook going to be dominated next Thursday by Da Yoof complaining "Some old bastard at the Polling Station stopped me from voting for Corbyn. Said I wasn't registered or summat. And even if I was, I don't live in Islington. These fucking old people are robbing us of our democratic rights!"
0 -
Yes, they don't want to be a hostage to fortune over tax - the merger of IC and NI has been talked about for ages and always put back in the too-difficult box. From seeing the reaction to trying to address social care you can understand why.alex. said:Probably more likely the Conservatives try to do something to merge NI and Income tax. It's been talked about for so long maybe it'll actually happen. Although I still don't see how it gets around the major political challenge of basic rate taxpayers discovering that they pay 33.8% of most of their income to the Govt and higher rate tax payers pay 41%/46% on their extra. A lower gap than most people probably realise.
I really hope there's a large majority, so that there's an opportunity to address issues like this properly without the few that will inevitably lose out from the changes being allowed to drown out the many that would benefit from them.0 -
Mr Cole,
You can have my vote for a fiver. There's a 20,000 Labour majority here, so mine's worthless anyway. Let's have more referenda.0 -
In that case, they could have ruled out any income tax rate increases like they did in 2015.IanB2 said:The "promise" simply indicates that the Tories will look to raise money in lots of other places but not from income tax. There are tons of potential candidates already identified by PB'ers.
Noticeably, THEY HAVE NOT.0 -
exactly: better that brexit is owned by the tories rather than fudged by labour which would only embolden the forces behind it.Peter_the_Punter said:
These are pretty much my own views, Niel.nielh said:Any incoming government is going to face two impossible challenges: Brexit and reducing the deficit. When you add to this the problem of meeting voter apparent expectations for improving living standards etc (they are turning their nose up at the one vaguely sensible plan to deal with these issues), you realise that no politician can possibly square all these circles. Corbyn is effectively the first of many fantasists. So its pretty much uncharted territory.
Although generally left leaning, I'd marginally prefer a Conservative government because I want them to own Brexit.
Cant bring myself to put my x in the box for the tories though.0 -
The problem with increasing national insurance is you can never get it back0
-
I think we have an essentially reactive government that doesn't have a great agenda - May knows she *ought* to have one because of the JAMS, but hasn't managed to work out what she can actually do about them that her party will stomach - and knows that it is going to spend the next five years reacting to events and dealing with Brexit.FF43 said:
My REALLY big issue with May is not that I disagree with her plan for Brexit. It's that she doesn't have one. She has been in post for nearly a year after the referendum result with Brexit being the totally dominant issue. She has done nothing effective in this time.SouthamObserver said:Yep - her call is to decide what kind of Brexit it will be. She has promised to make voters more prosperous and will be judged on that.
Managing Brexit is slowly consuming the civil service - they are recruiting and seconding more and more people to join or work with the Brexit department, and there are still slugs of well-paid vacancies being advertised (also extending to other gvt depts, for example: https://www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk/csr/jobs.cgi?jcode=1542458&utm_source=Indeed&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=Indeed).
Originally they were looking for specific expertise but I suspect the entry requirements are gradually slipping and soon having been on a day trip to Calais may be enough to qualify.
The people already working there are spending their time identifying even more potential issues they haven't thought of, generating the need for even more people.
I doubt that the next government will be able to anything significant other than Brexit and attempting to balance the books. Which will leave a lot of Commons time and a lot of under-employed backbenchers to make a nuisance of themselves.
http://www.publicsectorexecutive.com/Public-Sector-News/civil-service-not-even-close-to-being-ready-for-post-brexit-trade0 -
Not sure that agreeing wouldn’t be compounding a felony!CD13 said:Mr Cole,
You can have my vote for a fiver. There's a 20,000 Labour majority here, so mine's worthless anyway. Let's have more referenda.0 -
And all while delivering a Brexit that will make voters more prosperous.IanB2 said:The "promise" simply indicates that the Tories will look to raise money in lots of other places but not from income tax. There are tons of potential candidates already identified by PB'ers.
0 -
May looks to be in Huddersfield. Make of that what you will.0
-
Over 65's don't pay NI.alex. said:
Ah the old take money from the NHS (because they have to pay higher NI) to give it back trick!MaxPB said:
He said income tax and the VAT pledge has already been made, so one assumes NI is going up. My guess is that NI will go up by 1p for both employees and employers and they will use the money to pay for the £8bn NHS pledge.surbiton said:
So another U-turn then ? If they had no intention of increasing taxes they would have said so in the manifesto like in 2015.nunu said:
No he didn't. He said "across the income specrum".surbiton said:
There were a big exchange of posts in the middle of the night after this post of mine.surbiton said:I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.
So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.
I maintain my position. Unlike GE2015, when the Tories specifically ruled out Income Tax and NIC increases, this time they have not.
Michael Fallon specifically ruled out increases for higher rate taxpayers. Therefore, taxes will be increased on BASIC RATE taxpayers.0 -
Fixed it for you.MarkSenior said:
Politicians of all parties ALWAYS LIE . A basic premise of elections .nunu said:
I haven't ruled out punching you in the face, but It is very unlikely I will ever do it.surbiton said:
So another U-turn then ? If they had no intention of increasing taxes they would have said so in the manifesto like in 2015.nunu said:
No he didn't. He said "across the income specrum".surbiton said:
There were a big exchange of posts in the middle of the night after this post of mine.surbiton said:I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.
So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.
I maintain my position. Unlike GE2015, when the Tories specifically ruled out Income Tax and NIC increases, this time they have not.
Michael Fallon specifically ruled out increases for higher rate taxpayers. Therefore, taxes will be increased on BASIC RATE taxpayers.
Just because you don't rule something out that doesn't mean you are planning on that eventuality.
The reason they do is obvious, too: if any lie, the honest ones get punished by the voters.0 -
Broken promise #1 – balancing the books by 2015 : Back in 2010 David Cameron pledged that “in five years’ time, we will have balanced the books”. But his Government has completely failed to deliver. As the independent Office for Budget Responsibility showed last month the deficit is set to be more than £73 billion this year.
Broken promise #2 – no top down reorganisation of the NHS: Before the 2010 General Election David Cameron repeatedly promised that there would be no top down reorganisations of the NHS. “No more pointless reorganisations," he said. But, despite opposition from health professionals, patients and the public, the Tory-led Government did impose the biggest top-down reorganisation in NHS history.
Broken promise #3 – no increase in VAT: In the days before the 2010 General Election David Cameron said he had “no plans” to increase VAT. But he broke this promise almost immediately in government, hiking VAT to 20 per cent in a move that costs a family with children £450 a year.
Broken promise #4 – no cuts to tax credits (a promise broken twice): David Cameron has twice broken his promise not to cut tax credits. In 2010, before the General Election, the Tories said Labour was wrong to claim families with incomes under £40,000 would be affected by cuts to tax credits. But families on incomes much lower than £40,000 were hit by cuts to tax credits in the last Parliament. And again, before the 2015 General Election David Cameron said he wouldn’t cut child tax credits – a promise broken in the Summer 2015 Budget.
0 -
Broken promise #5 – a new ‘compassionate Conservativism’: In his acceptance speech as Tory Party leader, 10 years ago, David Cameron spoke about wanting to “give this country a modern compassionate Conservativism that is right for our times and right for our country”. But compassionate Conservatism was never anything more than a soundbite. Instead of compassion five years’ of a Tory government has delivered the cruel and unfair Bedroom Tax and a growing reliance on food banks while at the same time cutting taxes for millionaires.
Broken promise #6 – tackling relative child poverty: In his 2006 Scarman Lecture, delivered as part of this attempt to ‘detoxify’ the Tory Party David Cameron said: “I want this message to go out loud and clear: the Conservative Party recognises, will measure and will act on relative poverty.” But following the 2015 General Election his Government has scrapped Labour’s target for tackling relative child poverty with Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith dismissing it as a flawed measure.
Broken promise #7 – most family friendly government ever: David Cameron said he wanted to deliver the most family friendly government ever – but his policies and decisions have hit families hard. His flagship childcare policy has been massively delayed and there are hundreds fewer Sure Start centres than when he took office.
Broken promise #8 – greenest government ever: David Cameron said he wanted to lead the “greenest government ever” but has completely failed to deliver. Since 2010 David Cameron’s Government has cut support for solar panels on homes, scrapped the Green Deal to help people insulate old homes, scrapped green building standards for new homes and cut support for industrial solar projects.
Broken promise #9 – well paid jobs and good careers for our young people: David Cameron used his leadership acceptance speech 10 years ago to ask what the world would look like for eight-year-olds in 10 years’ time, one term into a Tory Government by which time they would be 18. He said he wanted them to have “well-paid jobs and good careers”. But 10 years on David Cameron has let those young people down. Those about to head to university face being saddled with decades of debt as a result of the Tories’ decision to treble tuition fees. And one of the first acts of the Tory majority government was to pave the way for even higher tuition fees in some universities. Those going straight into work are facing increasingly insecurity, entrenched low pay and a rise in zero-hours contracts.
Broken promise #10 – dignity for people in their old age: His acceptance speech in December 2005 also pledged that for people over the age of 65 “their safety, their dignity in old age will be our priority”. But cuts to social care are hitting the elderly hard while his Government’s plans to introduce a cap on social care costs have been delayed until 2020.
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I thought for emergencies you could apply for a proxy vote even on the day? Though the emergency may have to be medical.alex. said:
I think the deadline has passed. Certainly on my local council website it has.OldKingCole said:
Can one still apply for a proxy vote? Surely someone knows. Family member, living S. Essex has a job interview in Manchester at midday on Thursday.MarqueeMark said:How much is Twitter and Facebook going to be dominated next Thursday by Da Yoof complaining "Some old bastard at the Polling Station stopped me from voting for Corbyn. Said I wasn't registered or summat. And even if I was, I don't live in Islington. These fucking old people are robbing us of our democratic rights!"
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Sky running with the tax issue. Her refusal to commit to no tax increase.
BBC also running with the same .0 -
remember when brown reversed his 10p tax cock upsurbiton said:
She did not give any assurance about Income Tax payers other than general platitudes about what a good party the Tories are about taxes.MaxPB said:
Obviously, because they want to put up NI.surbiton said:She could have said in a straight-forward manner that taxes will not be increased. She skirted that.
TAX BOMBSHELL
The Tories have form on this matter. Thatcher's denial about VAT followed by increase from 8% to 15% in just a few weeks. Major also increased NIC from 9% to 11% after denying it.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/1584355/Gordon-Brown-attacked-over-10p-tax-rate.html
or when he broke the manifesto pledge to share the proceeds of growth with pensioners and gave them a whopping 75p
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/1999/oct/13/welfarereform.society0 -
You can get an emergency proxy until 5pm on polling day. A job interview halfway across the country should qualify.alex. said:
I think the deadline has passed. Certainly on my local council website it has.OldKingCole said:
Can one still apply for a proxy vote? Surely someone knows. Family member, living S. Essex has a job interview in Manchester at midday on Thursday.MarqueeMark said:How much is Twitter and Facebook going to be dominated next Thursday by Da Yoof complaining "Some old bastard at the Polling Station stopped me from voting for Corbyn. Said I wasn't registered or summat. And even if I was, I don't live in Islington. These fucking old people are robbing us of our democratic rights!"
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The reason tories make promises and break them is because tory voters don't care that they lie because in everyday life they do the same.0
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The spending limit applies only to spending authorised by the candidate.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep as I say I wasn't referring to Mike specifically, it was just hearing of his leaflets reminded me of a question I have had for a long time.TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike's leaflets are part of the official Lib Dem campaign, there's rules/laws to stop the scenario you're talking about.Richard_Tyndall said:
Just out of interest and a general question rather than related to OGH specifically. If an individual decides to campaign for a party and spends vast amounts of money on that campaign but has no direct links to the party, how is that accounted for by the Electoral Commission in terms of spend - particularly if the material is referencing a specific constituency as you say this leaflet is?TheScreamingEagles said:
Turns out I received one yesterday, here in Dore.AlsoIndigo said:
Giving his hand a rest after signing all those letters to London residents telling them that "only the Libs" ... etctimmo said:I would imagine the polls we get today will continue to show a narrowing of the position. Polls taken after last night wont be available until Monday i presume.
I wo der if OGH is campaigning in C&W today
Very surreal getting a leaflet from Mike Smithson of politicalbetting.com telling me to vote Lib Dem to stop Labour winning Sheffield Hallam.
I think we all want to avoid the Americanisation of our politics where shadowy groups spend lots of money in races.
I still don't understand how this works though. I mean I suppose someone could in theory accidently sabotage a campaign in a constituency by producing vast amounts of literature that far exceeded spending limits, thinking they were helping the candidate but in fact getting them into deep trouble. I doubt 1 in a 1000 people actually know the law on this so a candidate could find themselves in trouble when entirely innocent.
Edit to add: Other limits apply to spending by third parties.0 -
The deadline was the 22nd from memory... I've always had a postal vote for such reasons (good job to as I'm firefighting a failing project in India next week)...alex. said:
I think the deadline has passed. Certainly on my local council website it has.OldKingCole said:
Can one still apply for a proxy vote? Surely someone knows. Family member, living S. Essex has a job interview in Manchester at midday on Thursday.MarqueeMark said:How much is Twitter and Facebook going to be dominated next Thursday by Da Yoof complaining "Some old bastard at the Polling Station stopped me from voting for Corbyn. Said I wasn't registered or summat. And even if I was, I don't live in Islington. These fucking old people are robbing us of our democratic rights!"
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Yes they do it's just masked as Employees NI.David_Evershed said:
Over 65's don't pay NI.alex. said:
Ah the old take money from the NHS (because they have to pay higher NI) to give it back trick!MaxPB said:
He said income tax and the VAT pledge has already been made, so one assumes NI is going up. My guess is that NI will go up by 1p for both employees and employers and they will use the money to pay for the £8bn NHS pledge.surbiton said:
So another U-turn then ? If they had no intention of increasing taxes they would have said so in the manifesto like in 2015.nunu said:
No he didn't. He said "across the income specrum".surbiton said:
There were a big exchange of posts in the middle of the night after this post of mine.surbiton said:I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.
So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.
I maintain my position. Unlike GE2015, when the Tories specifically ruled out Income Tax and NIC increases, this time they have not.
Michael Fallon specifically ruled out increases for higher rate taxpayers. Therefore, taxes will be increased on BASIC RATE taxpayers.0 -
There aren't that many over 65s working in the NHS I think.David_Evershed said:
Over 65's don't pay NI.alex. said:
Ah the old take money from the NHS (because they have to pay higher NI) to give it back trick!MaxPB said:
He said income tax and the VAT pledge has already been made, so one assumes NI is going up. My guess is that NI will go up by 1p for both employees and employers and they will use the money to pay for the £8bn NHS pledge.surbiton said:
So another U-turn then ? If they had no intention of increasing taxes they would have said so in the manifesto like in 2015.nunu said:
No he didn't. He said "across the income specrum".surbiton said:
There were a big exchange of posts in the middle of the night after this post of mine.surbiton said:I just read that Fallon said HR tax payers will not pay more than now.
So BASIC RATE taxpayers will pay more. Thanks, Fallon for letting it out.
I maintain my position. Unlike GE2015, when the Tories specifically ruled out Income Tax and NIC increases, this time they have not.
Michael Fallon specifically ruled out increases for higher rate taxpayers. Therefore, taxes will be increased on BASIC RATE taxpayers.0 -
Probably chasing after neighbouring, highly marginal Dewsbury.Typo said:May looks to be in Huddersfield. Make of that what you will.
The Tories have absolutely no chance of displacing long-serving Barry Sheerman in rock solid Labour safe Huddersfield itself.0
