Very unimpressed by what OGH has done in Carshalton and Wallington. Think you may have set yourself up for a fall Mike. Have you done this in other constituencies as well
So it doesn't have an imprint..does it go down as a local expense.. who paid for it? Also what polling data have you been using for C&W Mike.. please tell us. You are quick to slate other pollsters when they don't release their data.
ALL the polling data indicates this seat is between LibDem and Tory!
Very unimpressed by what OGH has done in Carshalton and Wallington. Think you may have set yourself up for a fall Mike. Have you done this in other constituencies as well
So it doesn't have an imprint..does it go down as a local expense.. who paid for it? Also what polling data have you been using for C&W Mike.. please tell us. You are quick to slate other pollsters when they don't release their data.
A fake. The real Mike Smithson knows that "data" is plural, and doesn't claim to make predictions - only to identify value bets.
Well Brake is 7/4 now why isn't Mike advising us all to pile on..
I certainly could not believe, in my wildest dreams that the Conservatives would get a majority - which is why the exit poll literally shocked the sh*t out of me at the time.
It literally did that? I hope you weren't in company!
Very unimpressed by what OGH has done in Carshalton and Wallington. Think you may have set yourself up for a fall Mike. Have you done this in other constituencies as well
So it doesn't have an imprint..does it go down as a local expense.. who paid for it? Also what polling data have you been using for C&W Mike.. please tell us. You are quick to slate other pollsters when they don't release their data.
ALL the polling data indicates this seat is between LibDem and Tory!
If the polls are right, I think people saw that May was offering more of the same, and they simply can't face another five years of that.
I think you're probably right. Not a lot of potential sunshine on the horizon.
The irony is that after a near decade it took to wipe out the deficit, a huge chunk of people are going to vote for someone who'll send it right back to -100bn a year. We'll have austerity until the 2030s.
Given Corbyn won't win a majority, he is vulnerable to being brought down for another GE by a vote of no confidence at any time if he truly f*cks up.
MMT found ttps://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/870524718658408448/photo/1
Usual leftie bollocks that assumes that the tax payer is passive and just pays the extra taxes, rather than say, doing less work, retiring early, downshifting, restructuring their businesses and investments, or moving abroad.
Given that the corporation tax cuts resulted in an increase in tax revenue, how exactly does reversing those cuts in tax give you £19.4 billion extra. It really is a magic money tree and Mason is the fungus growing on its trunk.
Polls have come to shape the entire political narrative. Without them, there is no political narrative. That's why there is a compulsion to believe polls - even during a period when pollsters have got it spectacularly wrong - EUref, GE 2015 etc. Even I am starting to think the polls might be right, because right now it seems delusional to totally dismiss them. But hey, we could be on course for another polling disaster. If that's the case, then I think those interested in politics must let go of looking too much into polls.
I have been thinking the same thing myself for some time. In the last election, thousands of hours were wasted by idiotic media outlets debating Hung Parliament scenarios. In this one, the press first started by assuming that the Tories would win by about 200 seats (and, therefore, spent an inordinate amount of time picking the Conservative manifesto to pieces, whilst only paying any attention e.g. to the cost of Labour's great herds of "free" ponies when Diane Abbott said something funny.) And now we have this new narrative of panic over Downing St incompetence and disappearing majorities, again because a handful of clever guesstimators in offices in London have said that this is what their dodgy numbers would suggest. We don't know if the numbers are anywhere close to being true - and, frankly, if they are then we'll probably never know how much the pollsters and the lazy hacks who report on them made the second scenario come true because they created the first one.
Of course, even if the polls fail again - and fail worse than last time - then come the next General Election the narrative will, yet again, be dominated by them. Because opinion polling has acquired this air of pseudo-scientific legitimacy, when in fact it is nothing more than guesswork, and *may* be no more valid an indicator of the political mood of the nation than looking at real wages, unemployment, mortgage interest rates and other economic indicators, for example.
If the polls are wrong then sites such as this have got to stop paying attention to them. It doesn't help that despite pollsters getting it wrong recently, we see have headers and discussion threads centred on xyz poll says this, and treating those polls as having a significant basis in reality.
So, Leavers. If you had your time over again and were able to choose where Britain should be on 9 June 2017, would you prefer:
1) David Cameron as Prime Minister in a Britain that remained in the EU; or
2) Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister in a Britain that had left the EU?
Said it a dozen times (2).
Can't argue against democracy. If that's what the British people decide, so be it. If he turns us into a socialist mass immigration hell hole, which I think he will, we will vote him out
number 2 ofcourse. If corbyn is as bad as I think he will be gone in 5 years with a tory landslide but Brexit is for keeps.
Not even comparable. Vote Leave had popular easy to remember policies (never mind if they were true or not they worked).
* Control our borders with an australian style points system
* £350million for the NHS
and a great slogan, you knew what they wnated to achieve and it was right for the time of people feeling powerless, it didn't just try to scare people it gave people a reason to vote FOR them. Theresa has done the opposite of this, if the tories retain power, she will be gone within 5 minutes I rekon, pushed out by the head bangers. She is more REMAIN and Hillary then Leave.
Just today we saw tory "sources" saying Davis will be replaced by a remainer *when* they win a landslide. Hubris much?
I thought the script was Gummer to replace Davis, Davis to replace Johnson, Johnson to go....wts?
Where has this thing about Gummer replacing Davis come from?
The Times.
Looks like Mrs May wants to promote David Davis to Foreign Secretary.
I agree Boris needs to be moved.
Davis seems to be doing a good job to me.
Agree re Davis, though if there's going to be a Brexit department, it doesn't seem very sensible to switch the Sec of State after he's spent a year getting to grips with the job.
As for Boris, promote him. When he knuckles down, he can do detail.
Not sure there is anywhere else to promote him to is there? I am not sure he has the temperament for Chancellor and anything else would be a demotion.
There is another job you've not mentioned, above that of Chancellor.
The Herdson comes out for Boris to replace Theresa?
Entertaining thread header tomorrow morning per chance?
There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:
"3.7 million children currently live in poverty in the UK"
No they don't. Really, they don't.
Mr @AlsoIndigo's neighbour's children might live in poverty, the number living in anything approaching actual poverty in the UK is statistically close to zero.
Even the academics who proposed relative poverty now say it is totally misused for purposes that were not its intentions.
Yes, by no reasonable definition is only being able to afford an iPhone 6 when your neighbour has an iPhone 7 "poverty"
One of the relative measures reduced massively during the last recession, purely due to a reduction in the incomes of the top decille. At best it's a measure of inequality, at worst it's outright bollocks.
I wonder how many "children living in poverty" watch Sky TV?
So hammer the top decile and child poverty is reduced? Even if no child is better off?
Correct. It's based on something like family income under 60% of mean average wages. It's lies, damn lies and statistics in action.
Don't get me started on relative poverty - it's not poverty. The great success of capitalism is its ability to raise living standards. I think absolute poverty in the world has fallen from about 1/3rd to 1/10th, so that means hundreds of millions of people now live over the poverty line. A great achievement by capitalism. What capitalism cannot do is raise standards for every last person, and it certainly allows the people who succeed to make more money.
So some academic comes up with relative poverty. This is totally based on income distribution, so if Bill Gates, Warren Buffett and Oprah Winfrey moved to this country to live, relative poverty would go up, based on their presence alone. If Labour got in and convinced JK Rowling to move abroad for tax purposes that would improve relative poverty - madness.
Mr. Meeks, more interesting would be if Cameron had accepted the offer of associate membership. Full trade with minimal politics would've been hugely popular, if that was really on offer.
So, Leavers. If you had your time over again and were able to choose where Britain should be on 9 June 2017, would you prefer:
1) David Cameron as Prime Minister in a Britain that remained in the EU; or
2) Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister in a Britain that had left the EU?
Several more preferable options, but of the two I'd take Corbyn. Unlike the EU, we can vote him out when we collectively realise he's a menace to society. We can't vote out that other menace Junker.
Let's face it, a Corbyn-led coalition government ain't gonna last the summer.
That's my view too and that's why I voted LEAVE even though knew it would mean Cammo resigning.
Government's and PM's come and go but the EU Ref was our one and only chance to get out.
So out of the two options Mr Meeks gave I say Jezza for PM and UK out of the EU
Very unimpressed by what OGH has done in Carshalton and Wallington. Think you may have set yourself up for a fall Mike. Have you done this in other constituencies as well
So it doesn't have an imprint..does it go down as a local expense.. who paid for it? Also what polling data have you been using for C&W Mike.. please tell us. You are quick to slate other pollsters when they don't release their data.
ALL the polling data indicates this seat is between LibDem and Tory!
What polling data.. as far as I'm concerned and I have been following the polls,there has been no specific C&W polling done.
Mr. Meeks, more interesting would be if Cameron had accepted the offer of associate membership. Full trade with minimal politics would've been hugely popular, if that was really on offer.
Not an option. I'm simply trying to establish whether we have any buyer's remorse. There's some shuffling around on seats but it seems that the Leavers (to their credit) are all signed up for five years of sexy socialism.
Polls have come to shape the entire political narrative. Without them, there is no political narrative. That's why there is a compulsion to believe polls - even during a period when pollsters have got it spectacularly wrong - EUref, GE 2015 etc. Even I am starting to think the polls might be right, because right now it seems delusional to totally dismiss them. But hey, we could be on course for another polling disaster. If that's the case, then I think those interested in politics must let go of looking too much into polls.
I have been thinking the same thing myself for some time. In the last election, thousands of hours were wasted by idiotic media outlets debating Hung Parliament scenarios. In this one, the press first started by assuming that the Tories would win by about 200 seats (and, therefore, spent an inordinate amount of time picking the Conservative manifesto to pieces, whilst only paying any attention e.g. to the cost of Labour's great herds of "free" ponies when Diane Abbott said something funny.) And now we have this new narrative of panic over Downing St incompetence and disappearing majorities, again because a handful of clever guesstimators in offices in London have said that this is what their dodgy numbers would suggest. We don't know if the numbers are anywhere close to being true - and, frankly, if they are then we'll probably never know how much the pollsters and the lazy hacks who report on them made the second scenario come true because they created the first one.
Of course, even if the polls fail again - and fail worse than last time - then come the next General Election the narrative will, yet again, be dominated by them. Because opinion polling has acquired this air of pseudo-scientific legitimacy, when in fact it is nothing more than guesswork, and *may* be no more valid an indicator of the political mood of the nation than looking at real wages, unemployment, mortgage interest rates and other economic indicators, for example.
If the polls are wrong then sites such as this have got to stop paying attention to them. It doesn't help that despite pollsters getting it wrong recently, we see have headers and discussion threads centred on xyz poll says this, and treating those polls as having a significant basis in reality.
You are right, but that isn't what will happen unfortunately. We will just get threads on what the pollsters said in their post fuck up inquiry, with the ones that ones that were sitting on the chair when the music stopped championed as soothsayers
Very unimpressed by what OGH has done in Carshalton and Wallington. Think you may have set yourself up for a fall Mike. Have you done this in other constituencies as well
So it doesn't have an imprint..does it go down as a local expense.. who paid for it? Also what polling data have you been using for C&W Mike.. please tell us. You are quick to slate other pollsters when they don't release their data.
ALL the polling data indicates this seat is between LibDem and Tory!
What polling data.. as far as I'm concerned and I have been following the polls,there has been no specific C&W polling done.
Both of the seat-specific models I have seen show this to be the case. As does common sense.
Mr. Meeks, more interesting would be if Cameron had accepted the offer of associate membership. Full trade with minimal politics would've been hugely popular, if that was really on offer.
Yes Mr D, but it was better to walk away with no deal than a bad deal.
There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:
"3.7 million children currently live in poverty in the UK"
No they don't. Really, they don't.
Mr @AlsoIndigo's neighbour's children might live in poverty, the number living in anything approaching actual poverty in the UK is statistically close to zero.
Even the academics who proposed relative poverty now say it is totally misused for purposes that were not its intentions.
Yes, by no reasonable definition is only being able to afford an iPhone 6 when your neighbour has an iPhone 7 "poverty"
One of the relative measures reduced massively during the last recession, purely due to a reduction in the incomes of the top decille. At best it's a measure of inequality, at worst it's outright bollocks.
I wonder how many "children living in poverty" watch Sky TV?
So hammer the top decile and child poverty is reduced? Even if no child is better off?
Correct. It's based on something like family income under 60% of mean average wages. It's lies, damn lies and statistics in action.
Don't get me started on relative poverty - it's not poverty. The great success of capitalism is its ability to raise living standards. I think absolute poverty in the world has fallen from about 1/3rd to 1/10th, so that means hundreds of millions of people now live over the poverty line. A great achievement by capitalism. What capitalism cannot do is raise standards for every last person, and it certainly allows the people who succeed to make more money.
So some academic comes up with relative poverty. This is totally based on income distribution, so if Bill Gates, Warren Buffett and Oprah Winfrey moved to this country to live, relative poverty would go up, based on their presence alone. If Labour got in and convinced JK Rowling to move abroad for tax purposes that would improve relative poverty - madness.
Absolutely. There are some multi-millionaires in Monaco who are living in "relative poverty" there because their personal wealth is below the average. Alternatively someone in penury in Zimbabwe might not be in "relative poverty" because that is the tragic fate of most of the population
Not even comparable. Vote Leave had popular easy to remember policies (never mind if they were true or not they worked).
* Control our borders with an australian style points system
* £350million for the NHS
and a great slogan, you knew what they wnated to achieve and it was right for the time of people feeling powerless, it didn't just try to scare people it gave people a reason to vote FOR them. Theresa has done the opposite of this, if the tories retain power, she will be gone within 5 minutes I rekon, pushed out by the head bangers. She is more REMAIN and Hillary then Leave.
Just today we saw tory "sources" saying Davis will be replaced by a remainer *when* they win a landslide. Hubris much?
I thought the script was Gummer to replace Davis, Davis to replace Johnson, Johnson to go....wts?
Where has this thing about Gummer replacing Davis come from?
The Times.
Looks like Mrs May wants to promote David Davis to Foreign Secretary.
I agree Boris needs to be moved.
Davis seems to be doing a good job to me.
Agree re Davis, though if there's going to be a Brexit department, it doesn't seem very sensible to switch the Sec of State after he's spent a year getting to grips with the job.
As for Boris, promote him. When he knuckles down, he can do detail.
Not sure there is anywhere else to promote him to is there? I am not sure he has the temperament for Chancellor and anything else would be a demotion.
There is another job you've not mentioned, above that of Chancellor.
True but I am not sure May would feel too happy about promoting Boris into her own job.
Very unimpressed by what OGH has done in Carshalton and Wallington. Think you may have set yourself up for a fall Mike. Have you done this in other constituencies as well
So it doesn't have an imprint..does it go down as a local expense.. who paid for it? Also what polling data have you been using for C&W Mike.. please tell us. You are quick to slate other pollsters when they don't release their data.
ALL the polling data indicates this seat is between LibDem and Tory!
What polling data.. as far as I'm concerned and I have been following the polls,there has been no specific C&W polling done.
Both of the seat-specific models I have seen show this to be the case. As does common sense So we are polling now on the basis of "common sense" are we.
What seat specific models are you talking about please?
I certainly could not believe, in my wildest dreams that the Conservatives would get a majority - which is why the exit poll literally shocked the sh*t out of me at the time.
It literally did that? I hope you weren't in company!
Not literally, it was a euphemism.
Somehow, I've always managed to be on the wrong side of election results. I was for YesAV, for Labour winning in 2015, for Remain, for Clinton winning.
I was for the Scots saying in the Union though, and after Zac's racist campaign, I really wanted to see Sadiq Khan win in London. And Macron won this year as well.
My ideal scenario would be a moderate centre-left government who would keep us in the single market and if they had to, pursue moderate levels of tax rises.
Mr. Meeks, more interesting would be if Cameron had accepted the offer of associate membership. Full trade with minimal politics would've been hugely popular, if that was really on offer.
Yes Mr D, but it was better to walk away with no deal than a bad deal.
Well, Cameron did walk away with a bad deal. Look where that got him.
Given that the corporation tax cuts resulted in an increase in tax revenue, how exactly does reversing those cuts in tax give you £19.4 billion extra. It really is a magic money tree and Mason is the fungus growing on its trunk.
In addition the increase in corporation tax will also reduce tax in other places. If there's less profit, then there's less dividends, and therefore less income tax etc.
So, Leavers. If you had your time over again and were able to choose where Britain should be on 9 June 2017, would you prefer:
1) David Cameron as Prime Minister in a Britain that remained in the EU; or
2) Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister in a Britain that had left the EU?
Several more preferable options, but of the two I'd take Corbyn. Unlike the EU, we can vote him out when we collectively realise he's a menace to society. We can't vote out that other menace Junker.
Let's face it, a Corbyn-led coalition government ain't gonna last the summer.
Yep, 2 without any hesitation. Out of the EU is far more important in the medium to long term than who will be in Downing Street for a few years, most of which will be before we have even left the EU so severely limiting what he can do.
According to theupdated Lord Ashcroft poll Plaid are now FOURTH in Ceredigion
Which tells you all you need to know about Lord Ashcroft's polling methodology. It seems to have moved on very little from last time.
YouGov yesterday had Plaid Cymru on 8% across Wales. The subsample for mid and west Wales had them on 9%. If that figure is remotely correct, Plaid Cymru must have lost quite a lot of ground in Ceredigion, given that in four of the eight seats in that region they were scraping the bottom of the barrel already. It also bodes ill for the two seats in that region they hold.
Of course, it's just a subsample and not to be taken very seriously. But it fits with the wider Welsh picture and gives limited support to Lord Ashcroft's methodology.
Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
Seems unlikely at the moment ........ but say the polls are wrong by the same degree as they were last time, she'll have a majority around 90. The spreads suggest 70ish, Baxter predicts 74. Is that really such a disaster?
MMT found ttps://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/870524718658408448/photo/1
Usual leftie bollocks that assumes that the tax payer is passive and just pays the extra taxes, rather than say, doing less work, retiring early, downshifting, restructuring their businesses and investments, or moving abroad.
Appeasers of the worst excesses of Capitalism views dont count to Lefties
Nor are they popular with the Many that Lab has targetted
If true, the pollsters are in for an utter shellacking (to borrow TSE's phrase) come June 8th. Apart from ICM, the gold standard.
They have also done some funny stuff to their sample. Like Will Not Say = Tories
Thirty years of canvassing tells me that one is right!
Surely it depends who you're canvassing for!
Certainly I truly have no idea whether Tory canvassers get the same "it's between me and the ballot box" speech that Tory voters often give to non-Tory canvassers!
Just a few times in all those years I have had the same speech from a voter, followed by "but you have no need to worry", with a smile, which get put down as definites. So the same must happen at least occasionally to the Tories?
If I were Trump (ha ha), I would have pulled out of the agreement but pledged to meet the US emission targets unilaterally. That would be a win for people complaining about the money being sent overseas, and a win for the people who care about the impact of the US on the environment.
Given that the corporation tax cuts resulted in an increase in tax revenue, how exactly does reversing those cuts in tax give you £19.4 billion extra. It really is a magic money tree and Mason is the fungus growing on its trunk.
If true, the pollsters are in for an utter shellacking (to borrow TSE's phrase) come June 8th. Apart from ICM, the gold standard.
They have also done some funny stuff to their sample. Like Will Not Say = Tories
Thirty years of canvassing tells me that one is right!
Surely it depends who you're canvassing for!
Certainly I truly have no idea whether Tory canvassers get the same "it's between me and the ballot box" speech that Tory voters often give to non-Tory canvassers!
Just a few times in all those years I have had the same speech from a voter, followed by "but you have no need to worry", with a smile, which get put down as definites. So the same must happen at least occasionally to the Tories?
Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
If the Tories win a comfortable victory, then why should they move rapidly to get rid of her?
Leave aside for a minute the fact that everyone loves a winner, and also that many new Tory MPs will owe their jobs to her Unite the Right Brexit approach. The best strategy would be to use her as a lightning rod for all the negative consequences of Brexit, allow her to be burnt to a crisp, and then throw the smoking corpse down a mine shaft and install a fresh leader in good time for 2022.
Moreover, if the (English) Tories are *really* smart then they'll get thinking about how to persuade Scotland to piss off between now and then, and then pin the breakup of the Union on her as well.
And immigration will be in the 10s of thousands by the end of the Parliament.
Yeah right.
The solution to your condundum being that there won't be any to hire?
There is no solution. Lowering immigration below natural levels has to involve restrictions on employers' freedom of action, which will have an impact on their business.
Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
Seems unlikely at the moment ........ but say the polls are wrong by the same degree as they were last time, she'll have a majority around 90. The spreads suggest 70ish, Baxter predicts 74. Is that really such a disaster?
Two years, more likely. Any successor will want May to get into midterm unpopularity and take some of the grief that is coming, so that they can appear to be part of the solution rather than part of the problem. And with an election potentially five years away, they won't need to start (obviously) jockeying for position for a while.
Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
Seems unlikely at the moment ........ but say the polls are wrong by the same degree as they were last time, she'll have a majority around 90. The spreads suggest 70ish, Baxter predicts 74. Is that really such a disaster?
Two years, more likely. Any successor will want May to get into midterm unpopularity and take some of the grief that is coming, so that they can appear to be part of the solution rather than part of the problem. And with an election potentially five years away, they won't need to start (obviously) jockeying for position for a while.
I would have though after Brexit was a dead cert. So not before 2020/2021.
Given that the corporation tax cuts resulted in an increase in tax revenue, how exactly does reversing those cuts in tax give you £19.4 billion extra. It really is a magic money tree and Mason is the fungus growing on its trunk.
You may be confusing correlation with causation - CT receipts could have risen as it's a smaller %, but of a much bigger profit base...
MMT found ttps://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/870524718658408448/photo/1
Usual leftie bollocks that assumes that the tax payer is passive and just pays the extra taxes, rather than say, doing less work, retiring early, downshifting, restructuring their businesses and investments, or moving abroad.
Appeasers of the worst excesses of Capitalism views dont count to Lefties
Nor are they popular with the Many that Lab has targetted
No appeasement about it, why should I, it doesnt affect me, and unlike some, I live and work amongst the real poor.
The simple fact is the numbers dont add up, and its economically illiterate. If you increase taxes on people they react, they either do less, or do it somewhere else, and that applies to the "rich" more than anyone. This isn't just handwaving either, we saw it in technicolor when Hollande tried to soak the rich in France.
Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
If the Tories win a comfortable victory, then why should they move rapidly to get rid of her?
Leave aside for a minute the fact that everyone loves a winner, and also that many new Tory MPs will owe their jobs to her Unite the Right Brexit approach. The best strategy would be to use her as a lightning rod for all the negative consequences of Brexit, allow her to be burnt to a crisp, and then throw the smoking corpse down a mine shaft and install a fresh leader in good time for 2022.
Moreover, if the (English) Tories are *really* smart then they'll get thinking about how to persuade Scotland to piss off between now and then, and then pin the breakup of the Union on her as well.
They were going to get rid of Ted Heath in 1970 all the way through the campaign and then he won. The Tories should be more bothered if they win they might be stuck with her for 5 or 10 years.
Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
Seems unlikely at the moment ........ but say the polls are wrong by the same degree as they were last time, she'll have a majority around 90. The spreads suggest 70ish, Baxter predicts 74. Is that really such a disaster?
That could be the answer! Look at the polls and factor in how wrong they usually are
Which just takes you back to the old wisdom of they under estimate the right and over estimate the left
Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
If the Tories win a comfortable victory, then why should they move rapidly to get rid of her?
Leave aside for a minute the fact that everyone loves a winner, and also that many new Tory MPs will owe their jobs to her Unite the Right Brexit approach. The best strategy would be to use her as a lightning rod for all the negative consequences of Brexit, allow her to be burnt to a crisp, and then throw the smoking corpse down a mine shaft and install a fresh leader in good time for 2022.
Moreover, if the (English) Tories are *really* smart then they'll get thinking about how to persuade Scotland to piss off between now and then, and then pin the breakup of the Union on her as well.
The Tories will be tied in to her Brexit strategy regardless whoever takes over and no true Tory would ever countenance the breakup of the country I would rather Corbyn won a landslide than Yes win an indyref2 and indeed the biggest swing to the Tories next week will be in Scotland
So, Leavers. If you had your time over again and were able to choose where Britain should be on 9 June 2017, would you prefer:
1) David Cameron as Prime Minister in a Britain that remained in the EU; or
2) Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister in a Britain that had left the EU?
Several more preferable options, but of the two I'd take Corbyn. Unlike the EU, we can vote him out when we collectively realise he's a menace to society. We can't vote out that other menace Junker.
Let's face it, a Corbyn-led coalition government ain't gonna last the summer.
2) is prefereable. But a false choice. In reality, the eventual counter-revolution would have been all the more extreme had we stayed locked into the EU.
MMT found ttps://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/870524718658408448/photo/1
Usual leftie bollocks that assumes that the tax payer is passive and just pays the extra taxes, rather than say, doing less work, retiring early, downshifting, restructuring their businesses and investments, or moving abroad.
Appeasers of the worst excesses of Capitalism views dont count to Lefties
Nor are they popular with the Many that Lab has targetted
Yet another reason why the rampant lefties like yourself will get a very nasty shock if Corbyn does actually win. When the money starts to haemorrhage and tax revenues collapse they will have no where left to hide.
Why don't you show us a link from The Canary too! Definitely no sign of a lack of May on party literature on my doormat.
Checked the post and we've now had 9 leaflets in Maidenhead - 3 LD, 2 Con, 2 UKIP, 1 Green, 1 Just Political Party. The Con one had 6 pages plastered with pages of Tezzy as you might expect. Really surprised at how many we have had when this is the 3rd safest Con seat!
Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
Seems unlikely at the moment ........ but say the polls are wrong by the same degree as they were last time, she'll have a majority around 90. The spreads suggest 70ish, Baxter predicts 74. Is that really such a disaster?
That could be the answer! Look at the polls and factor in how wrong they usually are
Which just takes you back to the old wisdom of they under estimate the right and over estimate the left
Except the pollsters are almost all furiously making significant adjustments to their raw results to compensate for precisely that?
Not even comparable. Vote Leave had popular easy to remember policies (never mind if they were true or not they worked).
* Control our borders with an australian style points system
* £350million for the NHS
and a great slogan, you knew what they wnated to achieve and it was right for the time of people feeling powerless, it didn't just try to scare people it gave people a reason to vote FOR them. Theresa has done the opposite of this, if the tories retain power, she will be gone within 5 minutes I rekon, pushed out by the head bangers. She is more REMAIN and Hillary then Leave.
Just today we saw tory "sources" saying Davis will be replaced by a remainer *when* they win a landslide. Hubris much?
I thought the script was Gummer to replace Davis, Davis to replace Johnson, Johnson to go....wts?
Where has this thing about Gummer replacing Davis come from?
The Times.
Looks like Mrs May wants to promote David Davis to Foreign Secretary.
I agree Boris needs to be moved.
Davis seems to be doing a good job to me.
Agree re Davis, though if there's going to be a Brexit department, it doesn't seem very sensible to switch the Sec of State after he's spent a year getting to grips with the job.
As for Boris, promote him. When he knuckles down, he can do detail.
Not sure there is anywhere else to promote him to is there? I am not sure he has the temperament for Chancellor and anything else would be a demotion.
There is another job you've not mentioned, above that of Chancellor.
Just read Guido on the absense of poll movement in conservative and labour seats and labour expecting high profile casualties.
The polls may have a lot of explaining to do post 8th June. How certain are they that they are not being infiltrated with momentum or even hacked from foreign governments
Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
Seems unlikely at the moment ........ but say the polls are wrong by the same degree as they were last time, she'll have a majority around 90. The spreads suggest 70ish, Baxter predicts 74. Is that really such a disaster?
That could be the answer! Look at the pols and factor in how wrong they usually are
Which just takes you back to the old wisdom of they under estimate the right and over estimate the left
I'm not sure left/right is particularly relevant right now.
This is status quo / anti status quo. The polls are as likely to be underestimating labour as they are the tories.
I think it was @pulpstar who was the first to notice the comments btl on the daily mail were really anti-May after the campaign kicked in.
I have been thinking the same thing myself for some time. In the last election, thousands of hours were wasted by idiotic media outlets debating Hung Parliament scenarios. In this one, the press first started by assuming that the Tories would win by about 200 seats (and, therefore, spent an inordinate amount of time picking the Conservative manifesto to pieces, whilst only paying any attention e.g. to the cost of Labour's great herds of "free" ponies when Diane Abbott said something funny.) And now we have this new narrative of panic over Downing St incompetence and disappearing majorities, again because a handful of clever guesstimators in offices in London have said that this is what their dodgy numbers would suggest. We don't know if the numbers are anywhere close to being true - and, frankly, if they are then we'll probably never know how much the pollsters and the lazy hacks who report on them made the second scenario come true because they created the first one.
Of course, even if the polls fail again - and fail worse than last time - then come the next General Election the narrative will, yet again, be dominated by them. Because opinion polling has acquired this air of pseudo-scientific legitimacy, when in fact it is nothing more than guesswork, and *may* be no more valid an indicator of the political mood of the nation than looking at real wages, unemployment, mortgage interest rates and other economic indicators, for example.
If the polls are wrong then sites such as this have got to stop paying attention to them. It doesn't help that despite pollsters getting it wrong recently, we see have headers and discussion threads centred on xyz poll says this, and treating those polls as having a significant basis in reality.
You are right, but that isn't what will happen unfortunately. We will just get threads on what the pollsters said in their post fuck up inquiry, with the ones that ones that were sitting on the chair when the music stopped championed as soothsayers
It's fair to say that there's going to be a plane crash sized enquiry among the polling industry starting this time next week.
Talking of plane crashes, sell IAG shares, BA have learned nothing from their metaphorical plane crash last weekend, and all the senior management are out to cover their own arses. Shareholder revolt coming.
Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
Seems unlikely at the moment ........ but say the polls are wrong by the same degree as they were last time, she'll have a majority around 90. The spreads suggest 70ish, Baxter predicts 74. Is that really such a disaster?
As the pollsters have made methodological changes because of the errors last time , it is most unlikely they will be wrong in the same direction as last time by the same amount . More likely that the they have over corrected and the error is the other way .
Why don't you show us a link from The Canary too! Definitely no sign of a lack of May on party literature on my doormat.
Checked the post and we've now had 9 leaflets in Maidenhead - 3 LD, 2 Con, 2 UKIP, 1 Green, 1 Just Political Party. The Con one had 6 pages plastered with pages of Tezzy as you might expect. Really surprised at how many we have had when this is the 3rd safest Con seat!
Always worth making sure your leader doesn't get decapitated.
Just read Guido on the absense of poll movement in conservative and labour seats and labour expecting high profile casualties.
The polls may have a lot of explaining to do post 8th June. How certain are they that they are not being infiltrated with momentum or even hacked from foreign governments
I suspect neither. It's more likely that they are trying to hard to correct figures using all sorts of weightings and assumptions.
According to theupdated Lord Ashcroft poll Plaid are now FOURTH in Ceredigion
Which tells you all you need to know about Lord Ashcroft's polling methodology. It seems to have moved on very little from last time.
YouGov yesterday had Plaid Cymru on 8% across Wales. The subsample for mid and west Wales had them on 9%. If that figure is remotely correct, Plaid Cymru must have lost quite a lot of ground in Ceredigion, given that in four of the eight seats in that region they were scraping the bottom of the barrel already. It also bodes ill for the two seats in that region they hold.
Of course, it's just a subsample and not to be taken very seriously. But it fits with the wider Welsh picture and gives limited support to Lord Ashcroft's methodology.
According to theupdated Lord Ashcroft poll Plaid are now FOURTH in Ceredigion
Which tells you all you need to know about Lord Ashcroft's polling methodology. It seems to have moved on very little from last time.
YouGov yesterday had Plaid Cymru on 8% across Wales. The subsample for mid and west Wales had them on 9%. If that figure is remotely correct, Plaid Cymru must have lost quite a lot of ground in Ceredigion, given that in four of the eight seats in that region they were scraping the bottom of the barrel already. It also bodes ill for the two seats in that region they hold.
Of course, it's just a subsample and not to be taken very seriously. But it fits with the wider Welsh picture and gives limited support to Lord Ashcroft's methodology.
could be down to the large Welsh speaking student population of Aber having left for the summer
What's the running (down the leg) total for the Conservative Bedwetters this afternoon ?
I do not know, but I have tears of laughter running down my cheeks. Reading some of this lot has been a hoot.
I wonder what will ACTUALLY happen? Roll on Thursday...
(BTW, I am expecting a Tory win, less than 50 seats)
I'm glad you're enjoying yourself
At least this GE hasn't been boring, I guess.
If 'landslide' is defined as >100, what's the word for 50-100 - a semi-landslide? I think that's the most likely. Not sure if the odds on it will offer any value, though.
Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
Seems unlikely at the moment ........ but say the polls are wrong by the same degree as they were last time, she'll have a majority around 90. The spreads suggest 70ish, Baxter predicts 74. Is that really such a disaster?
That could be the answer! Look at the polls and factor in how wrong they usually are
Which just takes you back to the old wisdom of they under estimate the right and over estimate the left
Except the pollsters are almost all furiously making significant adjustments to their raw results to compensate for precisely that?
Tbf, pollsters making adjustments doesn't mean they can't be wrong. I'm sure pollsters made adjustments after 2015, but it didn't stop them getting EUref wrong.
Comments
"There is a complete consensus among every Tory and Labour candidate Guido has spoken to over the last week. "
Which he will.
Entertaining thread header tomorrow morning per chance?
So some academic comes up with relative poverty. This is totally based on income distribution, so if Bill Gates, Warren Buffett and Oprah Winfrey moved to this country to live, relative poverty would go up, based on their presence alone. If Labour got in and convinced JK Rowling to move abroad for tax purposes that would improve relative poverty - madness.
Yeah right.
At least this GE hasn't been boring, I guess.
Government's and PM's come and go but the EU Ref was our one and only chance to get out.
So out of the two options Mr Meeks gave I say Jezza for PM and UK out of the EU
Yeah right.
If he has spoken to sitting MP in Derby North surely she would have concerns.
DYOR but Lab s/b Evs IMO
Tories struggle to build personality cult around leader with no personality
Somehow, I've always managed to be on the wrong side of election results. I was for YesAV, for Labour winning in 2015, for Remain, for Clinton winning.
I was for the Scots saying in the Union though, and after Zac's racist campaign, I really wanted to see Sadiq Khan win in London. And Macron won this year as well.
My ideal scenario would be a moderate centre-left government who would keep us in the single market and if they had to, pursue moderate levels of tax rises.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/06/ashcroft-model-update-new-potential-majorities-seat-seat-estimates/
Of course, it's just a subsample and not to be taken very seriously. But it fits with the wider Welsh picture and gives limited support to Lord Ashcroft's methodology.
Nor are they popular with the Many that Lab has targetted
Just a few times in all those years I have had the same speech from a voter, followed by "but you have no need to worry", with a smile, which get put down as definites. So the same must happen at least occasionally to the Tories?
@SouthamObserver What do you think of all these polls? Still think the Tories are on course for a majority?
Leave aside for a minute the fact that everyone loves a winner, and also that many new Tory MPs will owe their jobs to her Unite the Right Brexit approach. The best strategy would be to use her as a lightning rod for all the negative consequences of Brexit, allow her to be burnt to a crisp, and then throw the smoking corpse down a mine shaft and install a fresh leader in good time for 2022.
Moreover, if the (English) Tories are *really* smart then they'll get thinking about how to persuade Scotland to piss off between now and then, and then pin the breakup of the Union on her as well.
/skwawkbox.org/2017/06/02/may-starting-to-disappear-from-tory-campaign-literature-ge17/
https://skwawkbox.org/2017/06/02/may-starting-to-disappear-from-tory-campaign-literature-ge17/
These polls are absolute shambles.
SNP 35 Lab 35 Con 21 LD 7 . Labour ahead in the Midlands .
Definitely no sign of a lack of May on party literature on my doormat.
Would make a good thread header @TheScreamingEagles to get some liquidity into it.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051208/market?marketId=1.125589838
The simple fact is the numbers dont add up, and its economically illiterate. If you increase taxes on people they react, they either do less, or do it somewhere else, and that applies to the "rich" more than anyone. This isn't just handwaving either, we saw it in technicolor when Hollande tried to soak the rich in France.
.
Which just takes you back to the old wisdom of they under estimate the right and over estimate the left
Safe as houses for Lab, even at trough Labour.
The polls may have a lot of explaining to do post 8th June. How certain are they that they are not being infiltrated with momentum or even hacked from foreign governments
This is status quo / anti status quo. The polls are as likely to be underestimating labour as they are the tories.
I think it was @pulpstar who was the first to notice the comments btl on the daily mail were really anti-May after the campaign kicked in.
She's a liar, liar ooooh.
Talking of plane crashes, sell IAG shares, BA have learned nothing from their metaphorical plane crash last weekend, and all the senior management are out to cover their own arses. Shareholder revolt coming.
How are things looking in Westmorland?