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  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    glw said:

    Cyan said:

    glw said:

    If May can't make Corbyn look like the fool he clearly is she shouldn't be leading the Tories. Beating up Corbyn for an hour or so should be a piece of piss.

    If Corbyn becomes prime minister next month, will you still think he's a fool?
    Yes.
    What would he have to achieve to make you change your mind? :)

  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,148
    HaroldO said:

    HaroldO said:

    If i didn't come here i wouldn't know there was so much go on about the election, very little social.media chatter, little party literature, no party signs in windows. No one at work has said a thing since it was announced.

    I've so far seen two Tory posters but both belong to the same farmer
    One Green
    One Labour.

    That's all.

    Small anecdote though: LibDems Target Wrong Constituency.

    I live 10 miles from the Welsh border, on the English side. In today's post was a LibDem 'newspaper' for Brecon and Radnor. Don't they know their constituency boundaries?!
    My partner got an email from the Lib Dems about her voting for them in the GE, she cannot vote in GE's as she is an EU citizen.
    Not quite true, Irish citizens can vote
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,222
    Jonathan said:

    chloe said:

    Rudd should be PM if she demolishes Corbyn and the Conservatives win a majority.

    Well quite. Sending Rudd is mistake (unless it's intended as a leg up in the leadership election to follow).
    Next Chancellor
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,015
    IanB2 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:
    Her non attendance is going to play very badly.

    The precise opposite of Major's strategy in 1992 when things briefly looked a bit dicky.
    "... briefly looked a bit dicky."

    As I recollect, absolutely everyone had written his chances off.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    In easily digestable tweet form

    https://twitter.com/markdiffley1/status/869859761734524928

    SCon 25% means no surge in my model (barring a funky voter switching matrix).
    Seems like Scotland has remembered "THAE TORIIIIIES"
    Do we have any other Ipsos Mori poll to compare it with? It's still a big advance for the Tories, compared to 2015.
    I make it SNP 51, Con 4, Lab 2, LD 2
    Do you run the Scotland Votes twitter account?

    https://twitter.com/scotlandvotes/status/869865356365619203
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited May 2017
    chloe said:

    Rudd should be PM if she demolishes Corbyn and the Conservatives win a majority.

    Problem is Corbyn is a bare faced liar, like Trump, so you can't in a debate win against him because he will say *anything* to win. he lied about commemorating the IRA and said it was for all who lost their lives. He didn't even blink when he did it and it was believable if you are a voter not obsessed with politics. he will preform well tonight because he can say anything, litearally anything and seems to be getting away with it. He said he wants to control migration the other day when their plan is actually to relax migration rules. He says his plan would likely reduce migration. HOW!? But he got away with it like Trump does, the media hold him to a different benchmark to May just as they did for Hillary.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    HaroldO said:

    HaroldO said:

    If i didn't come here i wouldn't know there was so much go on about the election, very little social.media chatter, little party literature, no party signs in windows. No one at work has said a thing since it was announced.

    I've so far seen two Tory posters but both belong to the same farmer
    One Green
    One Labour.

    That's all.

    Small anecdote though: LibDems Target Wrong Constituency.

    I live 10 miles from the Welsh border, on the English side. In today's post was a LibDem 'newspaper' for Brecon and Radnor. Don't they know their constituency boundaries?!
    My partner got an email from the Lib Dems about her voting for them in the GE, she cannot vote in GE's as she is an EU citizen.
    Not quite true, Irish citizens can vote
    Maltese and Cypriots too.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237

    HaroldO said:

    HaroldO said:

    If i didn't come here i wouldn't know there was so much go on about the election, very little social.media chatter, little party literature, no party signs in windows. No one at work has said a thing since it was announced.

    I've so far seen two Tory posters but both belong to the same farmer
    One Green
    One Labour.

    That's all.

    Small anecdote though: LibDems Target Wrong Constituency.

    I live 10 miles from the Welsh border, on the English side. In today's post was a LibDem 'newspaper' for Brecon and Radnor. Don't they know their constituency boundaries?!
    My partner got an email from the Lib Dems about her voting for them in the GE, she cannot vote in GE's as she is an EU citizen.
    Not quite true, Irish citizens can vote
    As can Maltese and Cypriot.
  • glwglw Posts: 7,744
    Cyan said:

    glw said:

    Cyan said:

    glw said:

    If May can't make Corbyn look like the fool he clearly is she shouldn't be leading the Tories. Beating up Corbyn for an hour or so should be a piece of piss.

    If Corbyn becomes prime minister next month, will you still think he's a fool?
    Yes.
    What would he have to achieve to make you change your mind? :)

    Nothing will change my mind about Corbyn, he's an idiot, a terrorist sympathiser, and unfit to hold office.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Alistair said:

    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    In easily digestable tweet form

    https://twitter.com/markdiffley1/status/869859761734524928

    SCon 25% means no surge in my model (barring a funky voter switching matrix).
    Seems like Scotland has remembered "THAE TORIIIIIES"
    Do we have any other Ipsos Mori poll to compare it with? It's still a big advance for the Tories, compared to 2015.
    I make it SNP 51, Con 4, Lab 2, LD 2
    Do you run the Scotland Votes twitter account?

    https://twitter.com/scotlandvotes/status/869865356365619203
    No, I just put the figures in my massive spreadsheet. Of course, one or two seats are very close. For example, Edinburgh West.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,523
    edited May 2017
    Whatever else May is doing tonight, she needs to get on the TV giving a barn-storming speech that kicks Corbyn in the nads.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    glw said:

    Cyan said:

    glw said:

    Cyan said:

    glw said:

    If May can't make Corbyn look like the fool he clearly is she shouldn't be leading the Tories. Beating up Corbyn for an hour or so should be a piece of piss.

    If Corbyn becomes prime minister next month, will you still think he's a fool?
    Yes.
    What would he have to achieve to make you change your mind? :)

    Nothing will change my mind about Corbyn, he's an idiot, a terrorist sympathiser, and unfit to hold office.
    I am not convinced Mrs May is fit to hold office either, but for different reasons...

    So, with a choice like that, what do I do?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    Scott_P said:

    JPJ2 said:

    Ruth Davidson's popularity has plunged with IPSOS Mori by 26 points from last September-and it still isn't comparing like with like relative to Nicola Sturgeon anyway.

    Scottish Conservatives leader Ruth Davidson received a higher satisfaction rating than First Minister Nicola Sturgeon in the survey.
    Sturgeon is on 46% Satisfied
    Davidson is on 45% Satisfied.

    https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/2017-05/scotland-pom-may-2017-charts_0.pdf

    Sturgeon is on 50% Dissatisfied
    Davidson is on 40% Dissatisfied
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,813

    This debate could be like Miliband's Russell Brand moment. Internal polling panicked Miliband into gimmicks such as Brand and the big rock thing. Could Corbyn be getting similarly poor polling?

    He's been getting polling worse than Miliband's ever since he became leader. I doubt he's panicking since he probably never expected to win in the first place, but he's clearly losing, so it makes sense for him to roll the dice.

    PS. Appearing in the scheduled leader's debate isn't a gimmick.
    No, but it is a gimmick if he wasn't scheduled to appear then makes a song and dance about suddenly turning up and "challenging" May to do the same. That's a gimmick, designed to make her look like a shirker.

    The best May can do is ignore it. Do a big speech on something at the same time as the debate maybe. But if she shows up, it looks like she's dancing to Corbyn's tune. In short, she's damned if she doesn't show, and damned if she does, so she may as well go with the former or it means another u-turn.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237

    calum said:
    Anything is better than dancing to your tune, Crick. Apologised about fucking up the expenses issue yet?
    Oh. So the Electoral Commission fined the Tories 70 grand for nothing then???
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,144


    In all the GE's in our area I cannot remember any with so few posters and boards. Nothing in peoples windows for anyone, one large sign for Guto Bebb on a farmers gate and nothing else.

    Virtually nil through letter box but lots of personal e mails from Theresa, Boris, Patrick etc

    It's the other way round here in (ultra-safe) Wealden - a load of Conservative posters, more than I've even seen before, plus I've seen a few LibDem and even one Labour poster (rare as hen's teeth here!). Also a couple of UKIP posters in fields, but most of the places which in 2015 displayed UKIP posters are instead showing Conservative ones.

    I'm not sure it means very much, though, except that the guy who organising the Tory poster distribution this time round is hard-working and effective.

    Perhaps more significant is that there seem to be fewer LibDem posters in Eastbourne than there were in 2015. Normally the LibDems saturate the place with posters.
  • glwglw Posts: 7,744

    I am not convinced Mrs May is fit to hold office either, but for different reasons...

    So, with a choice like that, what do I do?

    I think May is rubbish, but have no doubt that Corbyn would be far worse. The best we can hope for is May winning and soon afterwards being deposed and replaced by someone competent.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,385

    This debate could be like Miliband's Russell Brand moment. Internal polling panicked Miliband into gimmicks such as Brand and the big rock thing. Could Corbyn be getting similarly poor polling?

    He's been getting polling worse than Miliband's ever since he became leader. I doubt he's panicking since he probably never expected to win in the first place, but he's clearly losing, so it makes sense for him to roll the dice.

    PS. Appearing in the scheduled leader's debate isn't a gimmick.
    No, but it is a gimmick if he wasn't scheduled to appear then makes a song and dance about suddenly turning up and "challenging" May to do the same. That's a gimmick, designed to make her look like a shirker.

    This election is all about choosing a tactical genius who can take on the EU and beat them. His debate strategy seems to show he is better at doing this than May.
  • glwglw Posts: 7,744

    Whatever else May is doing tonight, she needs to get on the TV giving a barn-storming speech that kicks Corbyn in the nads.

    I don't think she's up to it, even if it should be like shooting fish in a barrel.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,505

    Jeremy Corbyn is right to roll the dice. Embarrassing the Prime Minister is always smart. Without Theresa May it won't be memorable unless something unusual happens. He'd better hope that the unusual thing happening is not him walking into a manhole.

    He is going to be in a pincer movement from Farron and Nuttall, Leanne will call him out on labour's NHS in Wales, and the SNP will be seeking a progressive alliance to defeat the tories.

    Amber will lay waste to his security and IRA past

    Not a good move by Corbyn but I am pleased he has set himself up like this. Over confidence
    Over confidence would be May not needing to even turn up IMO


    Taking voters for granted never a good look.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    Ipsos Mori asked a brilliant question that I haven't seen before

    THINKING ABOUT EACH OF THE MAIN PARTIES STANDING AT THE FORTHCOMING GENERAL ELECTION, WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEW?
    THEY ARE MY PREFERRED PARTY.
    NOT PREFERRED PARTY BUT MIGHT VOTE IF THEY HAD A CHANCE OF WINNING IN MY CONSTITUENCY.
    I WOULD NEVER CONSIDER VOTING FOR THEM.
    Don't Know/None

    SNP 38/14/46/4
    Lab 19/35/41/4
    Con 19/16/60/5
    LD 5/33/58/4

    Spot the anti-SCon tactical voting there.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,472

    Jonathan said:

    chloe said:

    Rudd should be PM if she demolishes Corbyn and the Conservatives win a majority.

    Well quite. Sending Rudd is mistake (unless it's intended as a leg up in the leadership election to follow).
    Next Chancellor
    Rudd will start with the audience against her as surrogate for May's not turning up. Particularly somewhere like Cambridge that prides itself on intellectual courage. If Rudd can turn things round with a good performance her career will get a massive boost. May's, not so much. Indeed in the unlikely scenario of a killer blow from Rudd, May will cede a lot of the potential credit.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    jonny83 said:

    May refuses to attend. Rudd stands.

    Rudd should accuse Corbyn of not trusting Diane Abbott, because of her recent gaffes, and do we really want that person as Home Secretary? Equally she should say that May trusts her.

    How successfully that could be spun remains to be seen but I would agree and there is precedent there for Corbyn not getting on or trusting his MP's.

    Rudd can be formidable and can think on her feet probably better than May can. She can get a bit shouty at times though.
    Perhaps she's been speaking to people "who understand the necessary hashtags".
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,010
    glw said:

    kjohnw said:

    am surprised the tories havent really mentioned this campaign the PLP revolt last year and the fact that his own MPs have no confidence in him as leader

    You may not have noticed but the Tory campaign has been useless. Stuff like that is precisely why any half-decent Tory leader would lick their lips with anticipation of giving Corbyn a verbal kicking.
    The tory machine has been shambolic in terms of this campiagn and actually I surprised there have not been sackings and a re-set (may be it has behind the scenes). Saying that the LDs have not flourished, the SNP are on a holding mission and really it is JC who has had the fun. However, what is the feeling on the streets and doorsteps, that is what is missing from my perspective
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,523
    Chris_A said:

    calum said:
    Anything is better than dancing to your tune, Crick. Apologised about fucking up the expenses issue yet?
    Oh. So the Electoral Commission fined the Tories 70 grand for nothing then???
    That had already been addressed. As had the fines for Labour and the LibDems for getting their expenses cocked up. What Crick did was help (mostly LibDems) get police forces waste a vast amount of money and resources chasing the most flimsy excuses (not putting in a receipt for your Facebook page???) on some poorly researched background materials. I KNOW for example that Tories on their battlebus had to each pay £50 a day for their accommodation - something that seems to have passed Mr Crick by...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Whatever else May is doing tonight, she needs to get on the TV giving a barn-storming speech that kicks Corbyn in the nads.

    If she were capable of that she would have done it already.

    She is a damp squib, indeed a positively soggy one.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,197
    I'm starting to feel nervous about Theresa's decision to flunk the leadership debate. In normal times it would be fully understandable, but these aren't normal times. What if Jezz plays a blinder and is universally hailed as a political rock star (albeit a slightly ageing one)? Theresa would look like a glum old frumpster who didn't show up at the party, while Jezz would be shaking the town. This has the horrid potential to be a game changer.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,754

    Jeremy Corbyn is right to roll the dice. Embarrassing the Prime Minister is always smart. Without Theresa May it won't be memorable unless something unusual happens. He'd better hope that the unusual thing happening is not him walking into a manhole.

    He is going to be in a pincer movement from Farron and Nuttall, Leanne will call him out on labour's NHS in Wales, and the SNP will be seeking a progressive alliance to defeat the tories.

    Amber will lay waste to his security and IRA past

    Not a good move by Corbyn but I am pleased he has set himself up like this. Over confidence
    Over confidence would be May not needing to even turn up IMO


    Taking voters for granted never a good look.
    Clearly the calculation is that May has more to lose than gain by turning up. On the basis of the Paxman thing, she might have a point.

    Sending Rudd is really weird and a mistake IMO. If she does well, it makes May look bad. If Rudd does badly, we ask the question why May wasn't there.

    The curious thing is Corbyn. He was good on the Paxman show. My guess is that has swung it. We'll see if that stands up.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,813
    edited May 2017
    JonathanD said:

    This debate could be like Miliband's Russell Brand moment. Internal polling panicked Miliband into gimmicks such as Brand and the big rock thing. Could Corbyn be getting similarly poor polling?

    He's been getting polling worse than Miliband's ever since he became leader. I doubt he's panicking since he probably never expected to win in the first place, but he's clearly losing, so it makes sense for him to roll the dice.

    PS. Appearing in the scheduled leader's debate isn't a gimmick.
    No, but it is a gimmick if he wasn't scheduled to appear then makes a song and dance about suddenly turning up and "challenging" May to do the same. That's a gimmick, designed to make her look like a shirker.

    This election is all about choosing a tactical genius who can take on the EU and beat them. His debate strategy seems to show he is better at doing this than May.
    No, his bobbing and weaving is the prerogative of a leader of the Opposition who is behind in the polls with nothing to lose. There's a big difference between that and being a Prime Minister. Rightly or wrongly, the Tory campaign was built around May being more prime ministerial than her opposite number. Therefore, the best way to react to Corbyn is not to: ignore him, rise above the inevitable tedium of a 7-way debate involving other irrelevant politicians such as Nuttall. Rightly or wrongly. The course is set till polling day, it is too late to change, because at this stage it will look like desperation (and tell us all that the internal Tory polling is as bad as the polls we are seeing).
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    The tory campaign is invisible again today.

    She needs to announce a massive policy to turn this around. Something on the scale of Osborne's Inheritance Tax cut. Something really big to dominate the headlines for a couple of days. CCHQ if you are reading this, DO IT NOW! NOW! we have no more time to lose.


    We cannot have Corbyn negeotiating Brexit, I believe the labour surge is real because the policies themselves are popular. He has a big increased lead with women under 40, this does not suprise me as they are more likely to work in the public sector and have had 1% pay caps now for years, and the cuts are really really just starting to bite now.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,010

    I'm starting to feel nervous about Theresa's decision to flunk the leadership debate. In normal times it would be fully understandable, but these aren't normal times. What if Jezz plays a blinder and is universally hailed as a political rock star (albeit a slightly ageing one)? Theresa would look like a glum old frumpster who didn't show up at the party, while Jezz would be shaking the town. This has the horrid potential to be a game changer.

    I still dont get why she called this election (and yes I have heard the usual patter) her calling this does not seem her style - who persuaded May?
  • isamisam Posts: 38,441

    Jeremy Corbyn is right to roll the dice. Embarrassing the Prime Minister is always smart. Without Theresa May it won't be memorable unless something unusual happens. He'd better hope that the unusual thing happening is not him walking into a manhole.

    Didn't Miliband do a debate that Cameron swerved last time?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,472
    edited May 2017

    glw said:

    kjohnw said:

    am surprised the tories havent really mentioned this campaign the PLP revolt last year and the fact that his own MPs have no confidence in him as leader

    You may not have noticed but the Tory campaign has been useless. Stuff like that is precisely why any half-decent Tory leader would lick their lips with anticipation of giving Corbyn a verbal kicking.
    The tory machine has been shambolic in terms of this campiagn and actually I surprised there have not been sackings and a re-set (may be it has behind the scenes). Saying that the LDs have not flourished, the SNP are on a holding mission and really it is JC who has had the fun. However, what is the feeling on the streets and doorsteps, that is what is missing from my perspective
    Shambolic is the wrong word. They actively decided to stand back and allow Labour the airtime for the first two weeks. Far from being shambolic, they were very well organised about it - not one of the Tory big beasts filled the vacuum with anything either interesting or controversial; they all just disappeared from view.

    Treating the voters with such contempt and complacency from the off was the biggest mistake, particularly in an election which the Tories actively forced on us for a variety of poor reasons. Later in the campaign when it might have mattered, people's goodwill was gone.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited May 2017
    glw said:

    I am not convinced Mrs May is fit to hold office either, but for different reasons...

    So, with a choice like that, what do I do?

    I think May is rubbish, but have no doubt that Corbyn would be far worse. The best we can hope for is May winning and soon afterwards being deposed and replaced by someone competent.
    I am in an ultra-safe seat (Tory by 13,000ish) and I will not be voting Tory.

    Edit: No canvassers except Labour so far
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    Srsly, who is running the Tory PR machine?

    https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/869891033563377664
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,523

    glw said:

    kjohnw said:

    am surprised the tories havent really mentioned this campaign the PLP revolt last year and the fact that his own MPs have no confidence in him as leader

    You may not have noticed but the Tory campaign has been useless. Stuff like that is precisely why any half-decent Tory leader would lick their lips with anticipation of giving Corbyn a verbal kicking.
    The tory machine has been shambolic in terms of this campiagn and actually I surprised there have not been sackings and a re-set (may be it has behind the scenes). Saying that the LDs have not flourished, the SNP are on a holding mission and really it is JC who has had the fun. However, what is the feeling on the streets and doorsteps, that is what is missing from my perspective
    You forgot that UKIP have all the vigour of the Norwegian Blue.....
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,505
    edited May 2017
    deleted
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Chris_A said:

    jonny83 said:

    May refuses to attend. Rudd stands.

    Rudd should accuse Corbyn of not trusting Diane Abbott, because of her recent gaffes, and do we really want that person as Home Secretary? Equally she should say that May trusts her.

    How successfully that could be spun remains to be seen but I would agree and there is precedent there for Corbyn not getting on or trusting his MP's.

    Rudd can be formidable and can think on her feet probably better than May can. She can get a bit shouty at times though.
    Perhaps she's been speaking to people "who understand the necessary hashtags".
    Tim has been emailing about internet snooping. I am sure that is a theme that he will raise.
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    Sturgeon should change her plans and come to the debate - that really would ramp it up on TerryMay
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    glw said:

    Cyan said:

    glw said:

    Cyan said:

    glw said:

    If May can't make Corbyn look like the fool he clearly is she shouldn't be leading the Tories. Beating up Corbyn for an hour or so should be a piece of piss.

    If Corbyn becomes prime minister next month, will you still think he's a fool?
    Yes.
    What would he have to achieve to make you change your mind? :)

    Nothing will change my mind about Corbyn, he's an idiot, a terrorist sympathiser, and unfit to hold office.
    I am not convinced Mrs May is fit to hold office either, but for different reasons...

    So, with a choice like that, what do I do?
    you shouldn't vote since you are planning to move to Ireland anyway.
  • chloechloe Posts: 308

    Jonathan said:

    chloe said:

    Rudd should be PM if she demolishes Corbyn and the Conservatives win a majority.

    Well quite. Sending Rudd is mistake (unless it's intended as a leg up in the leadership election to follow).
    Next Chancellor

    Leader of the opposition more likely at this rate.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,887
    edited May 2017
    Scott_P said:

    Jeremy Corbyn is right to roll the dice. Embarrassing the Prime Minister is always smart. Without Theresa May it won't be memorable unless something unusual happens. He'd better hope that the unusual thing happening is not him walking into a manhole.

    The best result the Tories can hope for is a total stairheid rammy, which they can caption as the coalition of chaos
    @Ishmael_Z I bloody love that. Say what you like about the Union, no one could accuse the Scots of not enriching the language.
    ---
    A stramash would also work for the Tories but a stooshie or a barach wouldn't be enough



  • isamisam Posts: 38,441

    glw said:

    kjohnw said:

    am surprised the tories havent really mentioned this campaign the PLP revolt last year and the fact that his own MPs have no confidence in him as leader

    You may not have noticed but the Tory campaign has been useless. Stuff like that is precisely why any half-decent Tory leader would lick their lips with anticipation of giving Corbyn a verbal kicking.
    The tory machine has been shambolic in terms of this campiagn and actually I surprised there have not been sackings and a re-set (may be it has behind the scenes). Saying that the LDs have not flourished, the SNP are on a holding mission and really it is JC who has had the fun. However, what is the feeling on the streets and doorsteps, that is what is missing from my perspective
    You forgot that UKIP have all the vigour of the Norwegian Blue.....
    I would think Nuttall can't wait to have a pop at Jezza over the anthem, the IRA etc
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    HaroldO said:

    HaroldO said:

    If i didn't come here i wouldn't know there was so much go on about the election, very little social.media chatter, little party literature, no party signs in windows. No one at work has said a thing since it was announced.

    I've so far seen two Tory posters but both belong to the same farmer
    One Green
    One Labour.

    That's all.

    Small anecdote though: LibDems Target Wrong Constituency.

    I live 10 miles from the Welsh border, on the English side. In today's post was a LibDem 'newspaper' for Brecon and Radnor. Don't they know their constituency boundaries?!
    My partner got an email from the Lib Dems about her voting for them in the GE, she cannot vote in GE's as she is an EU citizen.
    In all the GE's in our area I cannot remember any with so few posters and boards. Nothing in peoples windows for anyone, one large sign for Guto Bebb on a farmers gate and nothing else.

    Virtually nil through letter box but lots of personal e mails from Theresa, Boris, Patrick etc
    Just remembered i watched the leaders debate in 2010 not 2015.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    calum said:
    Anything is better than not dancing to your tune, Crick. Apologised about fucking up the expenses issue yet?
    When is The South Thanet Decision likely?

    If Corbyn has a barn-stormer tonight, and then South Thanet bites, I'll try making my millions by launching an integrated Emergency Underwear Laundry and Emigration Consultancy biz.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2017


    In all the GE's in our area I cannot remember any with so few posters and boards. Nothing in peoples windows for anyone, one large sign for Guto Bebb on a farmers gate and nothing else.

    Virtually nil through letter box but lots of personal e mails from Theresa, Boris, Patrick etc

    It's the other way round here in (ultra-safe) Wealden - a load of Conservative posters, more than I've even seen before, plus I've seen a few LibDem and even one Labour poster (rare as hen's teeth here!). Also a couple of UKIP posters in fields, but most of the places which in 2015 displayed UKIP posters are instead showing Conservative ones.

    I'm not sure it means very much, though, except that the guy who organising the Tory poster distribution this time round is hard-working and effective.

    Perhaps more significant is that there seem to be fewer LibDem posters in Eastbourne than there were in 2015. Normally the LibDems saturate the place with posters.
    The tories increasing majorities in their safe seats, bigly?

    TM might have a FPTP problem.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,916
    Two very strange decisions.

    One not turning up and the other sending the office junior.

    There is something of a narrative buiding; Mrs May is far too big for her boots.

    Perhaps that's why the rest of the EU are looking so smug..
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,911
    jonny83 said:

    Cyan said:

    glw said:

    If May can't make Corbyn look like the fool he clearly is she shouldn't be leading the Tories. Beating up Corbyn for an hour or so should be a piece of piss.

    If Corbyn becomes prime minister next month, will you still think he's a fool?

    The Tories can't win by beating people up. This isn't a "give the wet a kicking" show, as if the country were a private boarding school or we were all in "Lord of the Flies". They called this election and they have to show why people should vote for them, and they're doing crap.
    This country will become a lot less safer and a lot poorer very quickly. He's an extremely dangerous individual.

    It's not going to happen. However, the Tories only have themselves to blame for their complacency and negativity.

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    JonathanD said:

    This election is all about choosing a tactical genius who can take on the EU and beat them.

    :D:D Yet another Mottram Moment!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,523
    nunu said:

    The tory campaign is invisible again today.

    She needs to announce a massive policy to turn this around. Something on the scale of Osborne's Inheritance Tax cut. Something really big to dominate the headlines for a couple of days. CCHQ if you are reading this, DO IT NOW! NOW! we have no more time to lose.


    We cannot have Corbyn negeotiating Brexit, I believe the labour surge is real because the policies themselves are popular. He has a big increased lead with women under 40, this does not suprise me as they are more likely to work in the public sector and have had 1% pay caps now for years, and the cuts are really really just starting to bite now.

    She should announce she is honouring the Brexit bus £350 million a week extra for the NHS. That would be popular....
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,352
    edited May 2017
    The public aren't interested in the machinations of who is dancing to whose tune and what the arrangements are etc.

    All they will see is Corbyn is there and May isn't.

    May has zero to lose by attending - it's not a debate - it's 7 people giving uninterrupted one minute statements on various issues plus a bit of follow-up - but any actual debate is minimal as with 7 people nobody gets to speak for long, nobody has a chance to build any momentum.

    Cameron did a 7 leaders debate last time - there was almost no interaction with Miliband and it passed off completely without incident.

    Having said that, tonight's debate isn't going to rate well - it's on at 7.30pm, it's up against Britain's Got Talent and it's good weather tonight - so it's only going to get about 3 million viewers.

    But she has zero to lose whereas not being there will look bad as far as some people are concerned.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,248

    Sturgeon should change her plans and come to the debate - that really would ramp it up on TerryMay

    Definitely not - she is a marmite politician who would remind English voters exactly why they voted Tory in 2015 ie to avoid a potential coalition of chaos with the Scottish separatists having the whip hand.
  • chloechloe Posts: 308

    I'm starting to feel nervous about Theresa's decision to flunk the leadership debate. In normal times it would be fully understandable, but these aren't normal times. What if Jezz plays a blinder and is universally hailed as a political rock star (albeit a slightly ageing one)? Theresa would look like a glum old frumpster who didn't show up at the party, while Jezz would be shaking the town. This has the horrid potential to be a game changer.

    Quite right.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,747
    Alistair said:

    Srsly, who is running the Tory PR machine?

    https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/869891033563377664

    Wrong and risible.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Roger said:

    Two very strange decisions.

    One not turning up and the other sending the office junior.

    There is something of a narrative buiding; Mrs May is far too big for her boots.

    Perhaps that's why the rest of the EU are looking so smug..

    No Roger, they are looking smug because they realise that whoever we send will be useless.

    This lot are starting to make Cameron look like a statesman. I never that that was possible.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 985
    edited May 2017
    Got my postal vote this morning, Ribble Valley will no doubt remain blue. None of the YouGov predicted Labour gains will be from here.
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    Rudd next PM if she does well tonight? May reelected thanks to her...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,505
    calum said:
    What Lab could finish 2nd?

    I thought Ruth was way ahead of Kezia
  • calum said:
    A day like today is not a day for soundbites, we can leave those at home, but I feel the hand of history upon our shoulder with respect to this,.
  • JPJ2JPJ2 Posts: 340
    Scott P

    As I said, you are reading the wrong poll!!! Look more closely. It is badly presented by STV, I admit but it did not defeat me :-)

    Davidson's approval rating is +5.and Sturgeon's -4

    Yes, it is superficially better but it does not ask the killer question (I wonder why) which is : Who would you prefer as FM?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693

    calum said:
    A day like today is not a day for soundbites, we can leave those at home, but I feel the hand of history upon our shoulder with respect to this,.
    lol
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,505
    May is like a poorer version of Liz Kendall on her performances in the campaign so far


    Liz 4% Kendall FFS
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    nunu said:

    glw said:

    Cyan said:

    glw said:

    Cyan said:

    glw said:

    If May can't make Corbyn look like the fool he clearly is she shouldn't be leading the Tories. Beating up Corbyn for an hour or so should be a piece of piss.

    If Corbyn becomes prime minister next month, will you still think he's a fool?
    Yes.
    What would he have to achieve to make you change your mind? :)

    Nothing will change my mind about Corbyn, he's an idiot, a terrorist sympathiser, and unfit to hold office.
    I am not convinced Mrs May is fit to hold office either, but for different reasons...

    So, with a choice like that, what do I do?
    you shouldn't vote since you are planning to move to Ireland anyway.
    I never said I was moving to Ireland, in fact I categorically denied it a few days back. It is accepted Urban Legend around here that I am going there.

    Having said all that, Irish citizens are permitted to vote in UK elections (and vice versa)

    To vote at the UK general election you must be registered to vote and:

    * 18 years of age or over on polling day
    * be a British, Irish or qualifying Commonwealth citizen
    * be resident at an address in the UK (or a UK citizen living abroad who has been registered to vote in the UK in the last 15 years)

    http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/faq/voting-and-registration/who-is-eligible-to-vote-at-a-uk-general-election
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    JPJ2 said:

    Scott P

    As I said, you are reading the wrong poll!!!

    I am quoting directly from the STV website...

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Corbyn turning up may persuade a few extra viewers to tune in.

    Resulting in a few extra viewers being reminded how crap leaders debates are.

  • May is like a poorer version of Liz Kendall on her performances in the campaign so far


    Liz 4% Kendall FFS

    Decent set of pins on Liz though
  • glwglw Posts: 7,744
    MikeL said:

    The public aren't interested in the machinations of who is dancing to whose tune and what the arrangements are etc.

    All they will see is Corbyn is there and May isn't.

    May has zero to lose by attending - it's not a debate - it's 7 people giving uninterrupted one minute statements on various issues plus a bit of follow-up - but any actual debate is minimal as with 7 people nobody gets to speak for long, nobody has a chance to build any momentum.

    Corbyn has far more potential downside than May, May has the Dementia Tax to deflect, Corbyn has dozens of things he can be picked apart for.

    That said the story will simply be "May afraid to debate Corbyn".
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Panelbase commentary says another poll due in the next day or two at the moment looks like seeing a further tightening of the lead.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    May is like a poorer version of Liz Kendall on her performances in the campaign so far


    Liz 4% Kendall FFS

    Decent set of pins on Liz though
    And how is that relevant to anything?
  • JPJ2JPJ2 Posts: 340
    Norm,

    You are right-Nicola should not replace Robertson.

    Nicola was anything but a marmite politician when first FM, but years of verbal assault by the unionists ably assisted by the rabid MSM have had their effect. It is just what they did to Salmond.

    On the other hand Robertson has been the recipient of much praise (partly as a stick to beat Corbyn) and that cannot be convincingly reversed overnight.

    I am confident he will retain Moray now.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,472
    Apols if recently posted, but here is YG's technical explanation for their model:

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works/

    The write up sounds very convincing and they obviously have some confidence in it, citing successful road tests during Brexit and the Presidential. They say it *could* be wrong in 30-40 seats. But it's clear from the write up that it rests upon a lot of modelling and assumptions; the days when pollsters picked 1000 people at random and just reported what they say seem to be long gone.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,248
    May does need to get away from process (6 seats gained/lost pah) and focus on the economic downturn the UK will suffer if the Corbynistas get anywhere near power.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,505

    May is like a poorer version of Liz Kendall on her performances in the campaign so far


    Liz 4% Kendall FFS

    Decent set of pins on Liz though
    Rod Stewart says the same about TM
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    The other 5 parties are not going to like this 'its all about Jeremy' schtick
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    calum said:
    What Lab could finish 2nd?

    I thought Ruth was way ahead of Kezia
    SCON could easily finish 3rd - probably pick up more seats than SLAB though.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,970

    nunu said:

    The tory campaign is invisible again today.

    She needs to announce a massive policy to turn this around. Something on the scale of Osborne's Inheritance Tax cut. Something really big to dominate the headlines for a couple of days. CCHQ if you are reading this, DO IT NOW! NOW! we have no more time to lose.


    We cannot have Corbyn negeotiating Brexit, I believe the labour surge is real because the policies themselves are popular. He has a big increased lead with women under 40, this does not suprise me as they are more likely to work in the public sector and have had 1% pay caps now for years, and the cuts are really really just starting to bite now.

    She should announce she is honouring the Brexit bus £350 million a week extra for the NHS. That would be popular....
    As I trailed here over a month ago.

    But the bearded Rasputin wouldn't wear it.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Unless Corbyn supports seal clubbing or an amnesty for all paedophiles he has already won the debate tonight just by turning up.

    Absolutely pathetic that May can't face it! Shambles
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,385
    IanB2 said:

    Apols if recently posted, but here is YG's technical explanation for their model:

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works/

    The write up sounds very convincing and they obviously have some confidence in it, citing successful road tests during Brexit and the Presidential. They say it *could* be wrong in 30-40 seats. But it's clear from the write up that it rests upon a lot of modelling and assumptions; the days when pollsters picked 1000 people at random and just reported what they say seem to be long gone.

    Its certainly an interesting approach and there must be something in modelling results based on demographics and constituencies but all it seems to do in the end is put some great big error bars on what UNS would have predicted for a 4% Tory voteshare lead.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    The other 5 parties are not going to like this 'its all about Jeremy' schtick
    I can't help but think there is a trap somewhere. The Tories would have known Jezza was going to appear, after all if he wasn't Labour would have appointed someone to the task days ago. So it's fair to assume at the very least Rudd has been preparing to face Corbyn.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,213

    This debate could be like Miliband's Russell Brand moment. Internal polling panicked Miliband into gimmicks such as Brand and the big rock thing. Could Corbyn be getting similarly poor polling?

    He's been getting polling worse than Miliband's ever since he became leader. I doubt he's panicking since he probably never expected to win in the first place, but he's clearly losing, so it makes sense for him to roll the dice.

    PS. Appearing in the scheduled leader's debate isn't a gimmick.
    It is a gimmick if he has said since they were announced that he wouldn't.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2017
    IanB2 said:

    Apols if recently posted, but here is YG's technical explanation for their model:

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works/

    The write up sounds very convincing and they obviously have some confidence in it, citing successful road tests during Brexit and the Presidential. They say it *could* be wrong in 30-40 seats. But it's clear from the write up that it rests upon a lot of modelling and assumptions; the days when pollsters picked 1000 people at random and just reported what they say seem to be long gone.

    Thanks.

    Has yougov released the actual model?

    Like, 650 constituencies with voteshare bellcurves?

    That's what I really want to see.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,015
    IanB2 said:

    Apols if recently posted, but here is YG's technical explanation for their model:

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works/

    The write up sounds very convincing and they obviously have some confidence in it, citing successful road tests during Brexit and the Presidential. They say it *could* be wrong in 30-40 seats. But it's clear from the write up that it rests upon a lot of modelling and assumptions; the days when pollsters picked 1000 people at random and just reported what they say seem to be long gone.

    "From there, the models are fit using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with the open source software Stan. "

    This is standard Bayesian inference to an (analytic) likelihood function.

    To say anything more, you would need to know what the likelihood is that they are using.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    I still think the Tories will get a majority between 80 and 100.

    No panic here.

    I reckon Corbyn will get a load of youngsters out to vote in the university cities, and will pile up votes in the inner cities, but the Tories will win a tump of marginals.

    I still think May is pretty dour. But her tedious, uncurious, waffling, stubborn, churchy, boring style will be perfect for negotiating with the EU. She'll grind them down through pure tedium.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,023

    nunu said:

    The tory campaign is invisible again today.

    She needs to announce a massive policy to turn this around. Something on the scale of Osborne's Inheritance Tax cut. Something really big to dominate the headlines for a couple of days. CCHQ if you are reading this, DO IT NOW! NOW! we have no more time to lose.


    We cannot have Corbyn negeotiating Brexit, I believe the labour surge is real because the policies themselves are popular. He has a big increased lead with women under 40, this does not suprise me as they are more likely to work in the public sector and have had 1% pay caps now for years, and the cuts are really really just starting to bite now.

    She should announce she is honouring the Brexit bus £350 million a week extra for the NHS. That would be popular....
    As I trailed here over a month ago.

    But the bearded Rasputin wouldn't wear it.
    I thought Erdington Man had been replaced by Crosby.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    IanB2 said:

    Apols if recently posted, but here is YG's technical explanation for their model:

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works/

    The write up sounds very convincing and they obviously have some confidence in it, citing successful road tests during Brexit and the Presidential. They say it *could* be wrong in 30-40 seats. But it's clear from the write up that it rests upon a lot of modelling and assumptions; the days when pollsters picked 1000 people at random and just reported what they say seem to be long gone.

    "From there, the models are fit using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with the open source software Stan. "

    This is standard Bayesian inference to an (analytic) likelihood function.

    To say anything more, you would need to know what the likelihood is that they are using.
    Wonder what sensitivity analysis they did on it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,970
    I doubt there'll be enough time for word to get around that Corbyn is turning up in the debate tonight, and May isn't. Unless people watch the 5pm/6pm/7pm bulletins, and tune in then.

    Most people will learn about it tomorrow in the papers, on websites and via social media.

    May: chicken
    Corbyn: security threat and shite with numbers
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,887
    Brom said:

    The other 5 parties are not going to like this 'its all about Jeremy' schtick
    I can't help but think there is a trap somewhere. The Tories would have known Jezza was going to appear, after all if he wasn't Labour would have appointed someone to the task days ago. So it's fair to assume at the very least Rudd has been preparing to face Corbyn.
    Nope. It was the belief that they control narrative. Strong and stable means not showing up just because some poxy TV company like BBC asks you.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,505
    PM campaigning in Tory defence seat of Plymouth Sutton & Devonport: went Con in 2010, saw small swing to Lab in 2015. Maj 523. Interesting.

    I am absolutely convinced TMICIPM

    Surely i cant be wrong 2 GE in a row
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,505
    FF43 said:

    Brom said:

    The other 5 parties are not going to like this 'its all about Jeremy' schtick
    I can't help but think there is a trap somewhere. The Tories would have known Jezza was going to appear, after all if he wasn't Labour would have appointed someone to the task days ago. So it's fair to assume at the very least Rudd has been preparing to face Corbyn.
    Nope. It was the belief that they control narrative. Strong and stable means not showing up just because some poxy TV company like BBC asks you.
    You still think May is Strong and Stable?
  • Has a PM ever trashed their reputation during a general election campaign like the way Theresa May has done during this campaign?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,655

    May is like a poorer version of Liz Kendall on her performances in the campaign so far


    Liz 4% Kendall FFS

    Decent set of pins on Liz though
    And how is that relevant to anything?
    Important for stability.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    PM in Bath (Hhhhmmmm) looking weak answering questions from the media on her snubbing the BBC debate tonight.

    The media narrative is her absence tonight. Another win for the Jezza campaign.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,352
    edited May 2017
    Panelbase methodology change could have an influence on the feel of the campaign and the betting markets in the sense that there are now going to be three pollsters issuing polls likely to be showing Con leads at the top end of the scale (unless Con completely collapse).

    Doesn't mean they are right of course but it's going to push the general impression slightly more in that direction.
This discussion has been closed.