Yesterday's poll of Jewish voters suggest Hendon will be a hold.
Plymouth is interesting because of the large number of young people, but at the same time, it's working class, has a long service tradition that is hostile to Corbyn's views, and is pro-Leave.
I genuinely don't know if the YouGov poll is right or not (nor do any of us, but we only have a week to wait) but just in case, I've decided to vote Conservative in my constituency.
The YouGov model is a Monte Carol probabilistic model similar to Nate Silver's.
It has a wide range of outcomes of up to 345 seats to the Tories, i.e. an overall Tory majority of 40. I assume this is the 95% upper confidence limit with 275 seats at the lower limit and 310 the mean.
This assumes that the model, the methodology and the data is correct (which it won't be) so the spread is wider and the expectation will not be 310.
I suspect the motive of the Times in publishing the average figure and not the range as it clearly helps the Tory scare narrative.
It is still worth looking at the implications of 310 seats for the Tories and Alistair has done his usual excellent analysis. It might be worth considering the implications at the lower end of the range of Tories with 275 seats, Labour with 282 seats and SNP with around 50 seats.
Hendon - is there a large Jewish community here. Plymouth S&D - the university breaks up this Friday and there is a large amount of defence employment in Plymouth
She then went on to say that it seemed very hard to see ISIS ever sending anyone to engage in talks.
One wonders if Jeremy Corbyn would be prepared to be agree to be circumcised if ISIS demanded it (which in effect they do), and who would verify that he had been. Diane I guess.
Can she count that far? One skin, two skin, three skin ...
The YouGov model is a Monte Carol probabilistic model similar to Nate Silver's.
It has a wide range of outcomes of up to 345 seats to the Tories, i.e. an overall Tory majority of 40. I assume this is the 95% upper confidence limit with 275 seats at the lower limit and 310 the mean.
This assumes that the model, the methodology and the data is correct (which it won't be) so the spread is wider and the expectation will not be 310.
I suspect the motive of the Times in publishing the average figure and not the range as it clearly helps the Tory scare narrative.
It is still worth looking at the implications of 310 seats for the Tories and Alistair has done his usual excellent analysis. It might be worth considering the implications at the lower end of the range of Tories with 275 seats, Labour with 282 seats and SNP with around 50 seats.
Hendon - is there a large Jewish community here. Plymouth S&D - the university breaks up this Friday and there is a large amount of defence employment in Plymouth
No to both
Hendon is about 20% Jewish, but they probably make up about 25% of the people who vote. Conservative support among Jewish voters is up 10% on 2015.
My Corbynite girlfriend suggested the same last night. Negotiate with ISIS. Now she's very young but she's also very smart and speaks spanish and Hindi and yet.. such naivety despite her brains. Beggars belief.
She's also brilliantly pretty and sexy and I will forgive her anything, like an old fool. So there we are.
In the mists of pre-history, I had an extremely left wing girlfriend/sex partner. I was willing to forgive almost anything as she had hair down to her waist
If you don't have the confidence of the House then you don't have the confidence of the House. It's as simple as that. I suppose there might be merit in deliberately meeting it on a 'no compromise' Queen's Speech and then resigning when it's voted down, just to prove the point. Changing the leader won't change the maths.
But no, Corbyn in office would be embarrassing. He's done well during the campaign because it's his comfort zone. He likes campaigning he's experienced at it; a few repeated slogans go a long way. But think back to his time as parliamentary leader and multiply it several fold for the effect of being PM rather than LotO and you have some idea of what it'd be like.
It's interesting to wonder what would happen. TM would be utterly humiliated but I could imagine another tory leader getting support from smaller parties and maybe even some labour MPs. But probably another GE shortly after.
If neither major party can/will work with SNP - sort of begs the question what is the point voting for them in Westminster? Perhaps people of Scotland would realise they can essentially choose the next government- and would abandon SNP in droves for either Labour or Conservatives.
Prediction: even if Tories win now, Labour will very likely win in 2022 on a manifesto of taking us straight back into the Single Market. The pressure from their MPs - and business - will ensure it.
Ironic.
Seriously? Even if May gets her majority (which I still think will be 100ish seats) you think that will be overrturned, Labour will gain 100+ seats and become a majority themselves?
Seems unlikely to me - most new majority governments replace minorities (1979, 1997) and the prospect of a Labour minority in coalition with the SNP will ensure it doesn't happen.
She then went on to say that it seemed very hard to see ISIS ever sending anyone to engage in talks.
One wonders if Jeremy Corbyn would be prepared to be agree to be circumcised if ISIS demanded it (which in effect they do), and who would verify that he had been. Diane I guess.
Can she count that far? One skin, two skin, three skin ...
Gosh this is a day for trips down memory lane - we used to make circumcism joints - made from ....
If it was a hung parliament then May would go unless the support of the DUP would be enough for a majority and Hammond may be able to lead a minority government with LD support on a platform of soft Brexit, free movement unchanged, continued payments to the EU and staying in the single market. If not then Corbyn would become PM with the support of the SNP, Plaid, the SDLP and the Greens (and maybe SF too if they take their seats)
Anecdata. Unless they are leaving it very late there is zero effort going into Norwich South by the Tories.
Progressive Alliance in action?
One of the most welcome trends from Labour's point of view in this election is the willingness of the Greens, Liberals and other minor leftie outfits to concentrate on defending a handful of seats and hand the well-funded Red Machine the run of the rest of the country. As someone pointed out last night, that's quite rational as it's the pipsqueaks' best strategy – better to hang on to 10 seats in a hung parliament than gain five in a stonking Tory majority.
My Corbynite girlfriend suggested the same last night. Negotiate with ISIS. Now she's very young but she's also very smart and speaks spanish and Hindi and yet.. such naivety despite her brains. Beggars belief.
She's also brilliantly pretty and sexy and I will forgive her anything, like an old fool. So there we are.
In the mists of pre-history, I had an extremely left wing girlfriend/sex partner. I was willing to forgive almost anything as she had hair down to her waist
That's unusual. Most left wing women who have hair approaching their waist have it approaching from the other direction.
But no, Corbyn in office would be embarrassing. He's done well during the campaign because it's his comfort zone. He likes campaigning he's experienced at it; a few repeated slogans go a long way. But think back to his time as parliamentary leader and multiply it several fold for the effect of being PM rather than LotO and you have some idea of what it'd be like.
Disagree, as you'd expect of me. The bulk of the PLP don't dislike Jeremy, they just thought he'd lose and put their seats at risk. If he wins, they'll suspend disbelief, with a few well-known exceptions. No doubt mid-term would be bloody as usual, but for the first year he'd be fine.
A point which I've not seen made is that May has called the election at precisely the mid-term point where governments are normally unpopular. She thought the "firm mandate for Brexit" line would swing it, but then proved less than obviously firm on other matters.
@paulwaugh: New Panelbase poll puts Tories up one to 48%, Lab on 33%. One Tory insider says that's 'how it feels on the doors'.
Lol. One or two pollsters will simply have to close down their UK political operations, at the end of all this. Seriously. The reputational damage will be too severe to endure.
Well one firm which will not be closing down its political operations, come what may (no pun intended) is YouGov.
SNP look to be doing a great job of splitting the unionist opposition to me :>
I think you might be right, ironically because that poll suggests a drift from SNP to Labour. This indicates independence is a less salient issue, at least for this election. Labour might do a bit better in seats where it is a straight fight between Labour and the SNP (are there any seats in contention on this basis?) but Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems might do worse in seats where there is a significant Unionist third party to squeeze.
There are a lot of morons like her around who don't understand or, more likely, won't understand what ISIS are really about.
Unfortunately for us, Corbyn is one of those morons. God help us all if he becomes PM.
ISIS won't negotiate but that doesn't stop the naïve from proposing to do things which they hope might stop them bombing us. A blasphemy law protecting Islam from criticism, for instance - we've had the self-censorship so, oh how easy, just to go a little bit further and dress it up as dealing with islamophobia - sharia law for Muslim communities formally (not just informally as now) etc etc?
Why have Panelbase waited so long to release this poll?
probably held back by Manchester attacks but yes very strange. Apparently a more recent one will be published soon with a smaller lead, but presumably still double figures.
SNP look to be doing a great job of splitting the unionist opposition to me :>
I think you might be right, ironically because that poll suggests a drift from SNP to Labour. This indicates independence is a less salient issue, at least for this election. Labour might do a bit better in seats where it is a straight fight between Labour and the SNP (are there any seats in contention on this basis?) but Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems might do worse in seats where there is a significant Unionist third party to squeeze.
I have had a modest dabble on some Glasgow seats at good odds on that basis. They are straight SNP/SLAB seats and until 2015 had massive SLAB majorities. They are formidable SNP majorities now, but I cannot see them duplicating that. Anti austerity must play well there. I think SW micght be the most Unionist seat.
Prediction: even if Tories win now, Labour will very likely win in 2022 on a manifesto of taking us straight back into the Single Market. The pressure from their MPs - and business - will ensure it.
Ironic.
Seriously? Even if May gets her majority (which I still think will be 100ish seats) you think that will be overrturned, Labour will gain 100+ seats and become a majority themselves?
Seems unlikely to me - most new majority governments replace minorities (1979, 1997) and the prospect of a Labour minority in coalition with the SNP will ensure it doesn't happen.
Brexit changes all the conventional rules of politics. Tories 100 majority this time, Labour 100 majority next time is very much possible.
@GuardianHeather: Hearing from Labour sources Jeremy Corbyn has reshuffled his schedule for this afternoon so he can appear in tonight's BBC debate.
I can understand why he would turn up as he has to gamble now but I think Rudd will have the measure of him.
Agree - they should send Thorberry. I know she's pretty disliked on here but she's the best in these kind of forums Labour have. Saw her on Marr a few weeks back and she did well against Fallon.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is set to announce he will take part in tonight's live TV general election debate, according to Press Association sources.
I'm reading into this that if Labour were comfortable with the polls they would have sent Thornberry. Clearly he feels he needs a gamechanger at this point.
OMG Shadow health minister having a nightmare on Daily Politics, touching face looking very shifty when Andrew Neil points out that the sum total for NHS and Schools improvements and Welfare Benefits increases will be less than the money needed to implement free tuition fees for middle classes
Prediction: even if Tories win now, Labour will very likely win in 2022 on a manifesto of taking us straight back into the Single Market. The pressure from their MPs - and business - will ensure it.
Ironic.
Seriously? Even if May gets her majority (which I still think will be 100ish seats) you think that will be overrturned, Labour will gain 100+ seats and become a majority themselves?
Seems unlikely to me - most new majority governments replace minorities (1979, 1997) and the prospect of a Labour minority in coalition with the SNP will ensure it doesn't happen.
Brexit changes all the conventional rules of politics. Tories 100 majority this time, Labour 100 majority next time is very much possible.
I agree. The country seems to want to control itself and be proudly independent but also to want jam and welfarism. Successful parties in the future will be chasing the fat chav on a union jack sofa vote.
My Corbynite girlfriend suggested the same last night. Negotiate with ISIS. Now she's very young but she's also very smart and speaks spanish and Hindi and yet.. such naivety despite her brains. Beggars belief.
People (mainly the Assad regime and Turkey) negotiate with ISIS all the time... to buy oil, arrange ceasefires, exchange prisoners, etc.
@paulwaugh: New Panelbase poll puts Tories up one to 48%, Lab on 33%. One Tory insider says that's 'how it feels on the doors'.
And after all that fuss....
Panelbsse say the poll is old and "they expect to see narrowing in a day or two"
FFS
So, first, don't release it, and secondly don't release polls at all as you have some kind of feel-it-in-your water deal which overrides your polling and, as an added bonus, is predictive. Just tell us what that says.
My respect for the polling industry is not increasing.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is set to announce he will take part in tonight's live TV general election debate, according to Press Association sources.
I'm reading into this that if Labour were comfortable with the polls they would have sent Thornberry. Clearly he feels he needs a gamechanger at this point.
I think it simpler than that. Jeremy Corbyn loves hustings, and May hates them. JC is in his element.
My Corbynite girlfriend suggested the same last night. Negotiate with ISIS. Now she's very young but she's also very smart and speaks spanish and Hindi and yet.. such naivety despite her brains. Beggars belief.
She's also brilliantly pretty and sexy and I will forgive her anything, like an old fool. So there we are.
Everybody negotiates with everyone in the end, more or less. Complete military defeat is rare. The West could leave Isis to have its state in parts of Iraq and Syria, in return for Isis leaving the West alone. (Perhaps that'd be called tacit negotiation rather than actual talks.) Not very nice for the locals, but many would argue that's their problem not ours. And our home-grown extremists would be free to go and live there. Wouldn't completely solve the problem of terrorism in the West because (a) North Africa, though maybe there could be actual negotiation here to rid the area of Isis and Isis-style groups, and (b) there'd still be Al Qaeda's old beef about Saudi Arabia, but at least we'd be back to fighting on a single front.
Agree - they should send Thornberry. I know she's pretty disliked on here but she's the best in these kind of forums Labour have. Saw her on Marr a few weeks back and she did well against Fallon.
Thornberry is great. She is by far the most talented MP on the Lab frontbench (I know, I know). And she has a very nice voice.
The way she was traduced over the flags thing was ludicrous. Who would want to live next to a dolt who covers his entire house in flags? It oppressive, and 99% of those who claimed this bloke was a man of the people were hypocrites. They wouldn't much fancy him as a neighbour.
@GuardianHeather: Hearing from Labour sources Jeremy Corbyn has reshuffled his schedule for this afternoon so he can appear in tonight's BBC debate.
I can understand why he would turn up as he has to gamble now but I think Rudd will have the measure of him.
Agree - they should send Thorberry. I know she's pretty disliked on here but she's the best in these kind of forums Labour have. Saw her on Marr a few weeks back and she did well against Fallon.
Thornberry is great. She is by far the most talented MP on the Lab frontbench (I know, I know). And she has a very nice voice.
The way she was traduced over the flags thing was ludicrous. Who would want to live next to a dolt who covers his entire house in flags? It oppressive, and 99% of those who claimed this bloke was a man of the people were hypocrites. They wouldn't much fancy him as a neighbour.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is set to announce he will take part in tonight's live TV general election debate, according to Press Association sources.
I'm reading into this that if Labour were comfortable with the polls they would have sent Thornberry. Clearly he feels he needs a gamechanger at this point.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is set to announce he will take part in tonight's live TV general election debate, according to Press Association sources.
I'm reading into this that if Labour were comfortable with the polls they would have sent Thornberry. Clearly he feels he needs a gamechanger at this point.
I think it simpler than that. Jeremy Corbyn loves hustings, and May hates them. JC is in his element.
Bit of both I suspect. As you state, JC is in his element doing this sort of thing but also Labour must think that ICM are closer to the money than YouGov so he needs to go and play their Hail Marys on the NHS/Schools funding etc
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is set to announce he will take part in tonight's live TV general election debate, according to Press Association sources.
I'm reading into this that if Labour were comfortable with the polls they would have sent Thornberry. Clearly he feels he needs a gamechanger at this point.
Nah. It means Corbyn is feeling confident. And he's on the front foot, and attacking. He's having a good campaign and he has nothing to lose. He's also noticed that TMay is awkward and stiff at this stuff, so he wins either way. Either she looks a coward, or he takes her on and makes her look dull and dreary and depressing. Again.
You appear to be warming to Corbyn (NOM?) Sean. You were right earlier when you implied that NOM was the best outcome for the country because it will force a Soft Brexit.
@GuardianHeather: Hearing from Labour sources Jeremy Corbyn has reshuffled his schedule for this afternoon so he can appear in tonight's BBC debate.
I can understand why he would turn up as he has to gamble now but I think Rudd will have the measure of him.
Possible. Depends on whether Corbyn totally mucks up, which he is always expected to do but never quite does. Otherwise the takeaway will be, why do we get the monkey? Is the organ grinder afraid of the public?
@tnewtondunn: Corbyn's big surprise - he WILL take part in the BBC election debate tonight after all. Except, he forgot to actually announce it at rally.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is set to announce he will take part in tonight's live TV general election debate, according to Press Association sources.
I'm reading into this that if Labour were comfortable with the polls they would have sent Thornberry. Clearly he feels he needs a gamechanger at this point.
Nah. It means Corbyn is feeling confident. And he's on the front foot, and attacking. He's having a good campaign and he has nothing to lose. He's also noticed that TMay is awkward and stiff at this stuff, so he wins either way. Either she looks a coward, or he takes her on and makes her look dull and dreary and depressing. Again.
Given she did the Paxman I don't think she looks as much of a 'coward', add in the fact the SNP leader isn't there and it looks like a fairly low rating affair. If of course Rudd comes out more impressively then people will thing if he can't best the home secretary then he isn't fit to be a leader.
The West could leave Isis to have its state in parts of Iraq and Syria, in return for Isis leaving the West alone. (Perhaps that'd be called tacit negotiation rather than actual talks.)
It would also help to turn the ruling clique and their families into billionaires so they've got plenty to lose and would thereby be more biddable. See also the House of Saud.
Comments
Plymouth is interesting because of the large number of young people, but at the same time, it's working class, has a long service tradition that is hostile to Corbyn's views, and is pro-Leave.
It would be very interesting to see a Monte Carlo analysis
That will almost certainly help swing Bootle.
Plymouth S&D - the university breaks up this Friday and there is a large amount of defence employment in Plymouth
No to both
If neither major party can/will work with SNP - sort of begs the question what is the point voting for them in Westminster? Perhaps people of Scotland would realise they can essentially choose the next government- and would abandon SNP in droves for either Labour or Conservatives.
I can sleep again.
Seems unlikely to me - most new majority governments replace minorities (1979, 1997) and the prospect of a Labour minority in coalition with the SNP will ensure it doesn't happen.
A point which I've not seen made is that May has called the election at precisely the mid-term point where governments are normally unpopular. She thought the "firm mandate for Brexit" line would swing it, but then proved less than obviously firm on other matters.
Unfortunately for us, Corbyn is one of those morons. God help us all if he becomes PM.
ISIS won't negotiate but that doesn't stop the naïve from proposing to do things which they hope might stop them bombing us. A blasphemy law protecting Islam from criticism, for instance - we've had the self-censorship so, oh how easy, just to go a little bit further and dress it up as dealing with islamophobia - sharia law for Muslim communities formally (not just informally as now) etc etc?
Appeasement, in other words.
He is going to WIN
Dry for Tories, Wet for Labour
Didn't this site overestimate bigot-gate's impact in 2010?
Ignore.
My respect for the polling industry is not increasing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017#2017
The way she was traduced over the flags thing was ludicrous. Who would want to live next to a dolt who covers his entire house in flags? It oppressive, and 99% of those who claimed this bloke was a man of the people were hypocrites. They wouldn't much fancy him as a neighbour.
The way she was traduced over the flags thing was ludicrous. Who would want to live next to a dolt who covers his entire house in flags? It oppressive, and 99% of those who claimed this bloke was a man of the people were hypocrites. They wouldn't much fancy him as a neighbour.
http://opinionbee.uk/poll/3550/panelbase-19-23-may-2017-westminster-voting-intention