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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What if this latest from YouGov proves to be correct?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What if this latest from YouGov proves to be correct?
All the sensible people had decided. The Conservatives’ epic leads of the early part of the election campaign may have dissipated in part, but they remained set for a hefty overall majority. Then YouGov published their first seat-by-seat estimates, which to the consternation of many showed a hung Parliament.
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https://stv.tv/news/politics/1390009-stv-election-poll-snp-to-hold-50-seats-amid-tory-gains/
FPT
11:13AM
Big_G_NorthWales said:
» show previous quotes
The point about pensioners is that many will already have experienced the penalties of social care with the sale of their homes and asset confiscation to £23,250. If they have not they will be aware of the present system by discussion with fellow pensioners. To many pensioners Theresa May's proposals are a big improvement with the £100,000 guarantee. I explained it to my children yesterday and they fully support the change and even better if there is a cap
My reply
I agree, I wonder how much of this type of conversation has been going on under the radar. When it was announced I supported it. I feel it adresses the thorny problem of end of life care in an equitable manner - the rich will pay more than the poor if they use the 'service' but offset the payment until the estate is settled.
Sorry guys!
YouGov should be asked to provide the likelihood function they are feeding into the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.
We hear a lot about Shy Tories and still factoring that in, but:
1 - the polls showing a 25 point lead and 49-50% prepared to say they were voting Tory a few weeks ago suggested no shyness then. Is this factor now dead in the water? If so, then that spells trouble if the current 42-43 figure is the upper limit. Have the Tories really done anything in the past 3 weeks to start people being shy again? Must admit that the sheer bombardment of anti Tory bile and pro Corbyn fluff on my social media feeds is making me very wary about telling anyone I know of my intentions*, but would it trouble me telling a pollster? Hm.
2 - what about Shy Labour? Surely with a hopeless hapless leader voters a month or two ago were reluctant to admit to being Labour voters. With a strong, effective and competent (until Women's Hour) campaign by Corbyn and the momentum now being firmly towards Labour, and with "nice" freebies for all that nobody can reasonably object to (they might think) in the manifesto, why would anyone be shy about Labour now. Hence the surge - but it may mean 36-38% of voters were always minded to vote Labour. Indeed, they have realised that Corbyn is just the sort of leader they wanted when saddled with bacon sarnie mangler EdM whom they detested?
I am feeling really queasy about this, particularly with the YouGov model panel now reporting more bad news (presumably) every day now till polling day. Feels far too close, there are too many 2015 won seats that the Tories held by a whisker when helped by EdM and the SNP threat (the Tories are barely playing that angle this time), and when is the Tory fightback actually going to start??
[*Actually, no longer about "my intentions". We have a postal ballot this time and I have just popped mine in the postbox. Voted Tory, of course. First time not been able to vote in person - felt very unusual popping it in a postbox and the less than 100% certainty that my vote will actually make it to the counting hall...!]
and:
>>>[SirNorfolkPassmore said:
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And there may be. The places May has chosen to visit lately, however, are different to those at the start of the campaign as they look defensive.
It isn't a perfect indicator, but things like Cameron going to Yeovil late in the 2015 campaign were, with hindsight, an indicator to sell Lib Dem very, very heavily.]>>>>
I had a scroll through some Ashcroft projections. Reassuring in a sense but some look so obviously barmy as to cast doubt on the whole thing - he reckons the Tories will finish second behind Labour in Burnley (where I was brought up) with 33% of the vote. Absolute madness - would be astonished if they even clawed past the LDs back into second. The seat is a clear two horse race between Labour and the LDs and I think a comfortable Labour hold.
The fact they actually came up with a three point LD lead seven years ago as one PBer noted says it all.
https://twitter.com/markdiffley1/status/869859761734524928
SCon 25% means no surge in my model (barring a funky voter switching matrix).
How ironic if the SNP did hold the balance of power this time rather than last, and even in the teeth of Nicola's expectations.
However, YouGov might be right and if it is then May goes. Her position would be utterly untenable and someone else would have to deliver Brexit.
The question Alastair skims over is whether that need be a Tory at all. If there is a clear anti-Tory majority in the House then there would be nothing at all constitutionally amiss about standing back and letting another party form a government. Doing so would probably lead to another election in the Autumn, by which time the Tories could have picked someone else and Corbyn could have shown his talents in office.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2017-40091449
Next friday everyone will wonder what all the fuss was about.
Great thread from Alastair.
I'm also on the (549-1 for me) Philip Hammond to be next PM for the grand sum of 2 pounds.
At the same time - I'm struggling to believe that the Labour vote share will be more efficiently distributed than in 2015. Labour are polling a bit more than Miliband, with the Tories consistently getting a lot more than DC. Plus the pollsters may still be overstating Labour share/young may not turn out.
Add all that together - and betting on a Conservative landslide looks increasingly good value to me. Con majority of 200 - 225 at 39-1 on exchange and 175 - 199 at 18.5. DYOR.
I don't recall there being such wild divergence a week out as we have over here now in what is essentially only a two horse race, with all very much agreed on where the Libs/UKIP/Nats/Greens and others all are to a fairly narrow degree.
What do they do that our pollster don't? How do other countries compare? I think the Dutch ones overestimated Wilders quite a bit from memory and underestimated Rutte. There was a cock up on an Israeli exit poll that got reversed by the actual result, but are we the British inordinately difficult to poll or do others get problems that we just don't take as much notice of?
As I said last night, barring a convergence between them all again in the final 7 days and it actually being fairly right this time someone is going to get trashed here next Friday morning and I wouldn't want to be the chief exec of whichever company it is.
Is E.R.N.I.E still available for gigs now he's presumably not doing the Premium Bonds I ask?
I too am only on for £2.
It would basically be saying:
'I know we said he was a terrorist sympathiser who was dangerous for national security and would crash the economy, and I know we won 50 more seats and xx more votes, but we just think we should give him a chance to govern because we can't work out who should lead our party?'
Plus if Corbyn can pull this off this kind of result - who is to say being PM might not improve perceptions of him, especially if he gets a few positive things done early doors.
Backbenchers will demand changes to May’s inner circle after manifesto debacle
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-analysis-backbenchers-will-demand-changes-to-may-s-inner-circle-after-manifesto-a3553276.html
Then a huge amount of turmoil will follow, not just political but the markets will drop like a stone.
I don't put much faith in opinion polls during a General Election, newspapers want to sell their product and I believe that opinion polls are manipulated during campaigns to make a story. Any change in methodology, sample size and the like should draw a huge amount of scepticism. It is all a game and the politicians are in on it and the general public do not realise that they are manipulated. When I first found out how much deception went on I was shocked from parties claiming they could win (When they have no chance and don't even target enough seats to even be largest party) to how the public are duped into believing that opinion shifts on the tiniest issues.
You wouldn't put it past them in all honesty.
THey did poll for the local elections which gave SNP 46% Lab17% Con 19% which was comically incorrect.
Admittedly I am in a safe Tory seat, but the only campaigners that have been knocking on my door are Labour ones.
PB Tories now comforting each other with the thought that tying with Labour for second is really a big surge! Trouble is that politics is about momentum and the Tories have lost their big mo in the north. Unless they lift their depressing campaign they could easily come third in the popular vote.
You do seem to have a curious fixation with the posh boys, tbh.
With polls closing tactical voting for SCON also much less likely.
It has a wide range of outcomes of up to 345 seats to the Tories, i.e. an overall Tory majority of 40. I assume this is the 95% upper confidence limit with 275 seats at the lower limit and 310 the mean.
This assumes that the model, the methodology and the data is correct (which it won't be) so the spread is wider and the expectation will not be 310.
I suspect the motive of the Times in publishing the average figure and not the range as it clearly helps the Tory scare narrative.
It is still worth looking at the implications of 310 seats for the Tories and Alistair has done his usual excellent analysis. It might be worth considering the implications at the lower end of the range of Tories with 275 seats, Labour with 282 seats and SNP with around 50 seats.
Anecdotally, I received my postal vote from Newham this morning and I will vote LD with a heavy heart. I've met our local candidate who is a nice chap and who I hope will get back into third place though that doesn't mean a lot.
Just two years on from the 2015 ELE and it's naïve to assume either the Party or the electorate have moved that far. Yes, we may pick up some votes in some key places but as 30% of the 2015 LD vote voted to LEAVE last year (including me) any gains have to be offset by likely defections primarily to the Conservatives.
I suspect the 2017 LD performance will come in three unequal parts:
1) The vast majority of the country will see little or no change from 2015.
2) In a few more pro-LEAVE areas, the Party will lose support from 2015 and this may put two or three of the MPs at risk and weaken the Party's position further ins eats once held.
3) In more strongly pro-REMAIN areas there could be some big advances.
While I can conceive of the Party being reduced to 1 MP (Carmichael ?), I hope we'll come out with 6-12 MPs but the transformation of the Party which has begun at membership level will extend all the way up to parliamentary level. 2/3 of the current LD membership joined after 2015 - it is a new party, the Party I joined in 1980 has gone having been shattered by the Coalition Experience.
It is clear the memory of those years hasn't faded with the electorate and the fiasco of tuition fees still holds the Party back like an anchor - to be fair, we see the Conservatives trying to channel what Corbyn said in the 1980s much as they tried to do with the Winter of Discontent 15 years after the event. By 2022, the Coalition will be an equally distant memory.
On matters Brexit, I support a second referendum but the idea that rejecting whatever Treaty is cooked up means committing to remaining in the EU is foolish. We voted to LEAVE and whatever the rights or wrongs of that decision it has to be given the opportunity. There may come a time in the future when a Party can advocate re-joining the EU as a reasonable policy but that time isn't now. There is scope for arguing for a close economic relationship with the EU but the electorate voted against a close political relationship and that has to be respected albeit recognising large areas of mutual co-operation and collaboration exist.
A "soft" Brexit or BINO as I believe it is called is probably the best supporters of the EU can get for now - I don't support that. I think Britain needs to re-join and re-invent EFTA as a free trade grouping - more a "common" market than a "single" market as an economic rather than political counterweight to the EU in which the individual nations retain their political sovereignty but collaborate economically.
But no, Corbyn in office would be embarrassing. He's done well during the campaign because it's his comfort zone. He likes campaigning he's experienced at it; a few repeated slogans go a long way. But think back to his time as parliamentary leader and multiply it several fold for the effect of being PM rather than LotO and you have some idea of what it'd be like.
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/869866543374630912
But history would not be kind on the decision to go early against a very weak Labour leader. Especially when Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbot are so clearly not fit for purpose.
https://twitter.com/murdo_fraser/status/869866734626504705
If Momentum really has tried to pack the polling panels, it would be hugely ironic if the resulting dodgy polls drove up the Tory vote to block Corbyn - and actually lost Labour seats....
Hendon: Remain (58%) - Betfair Sportsbook 10.0
Plymouth Sutton & Devonport: Leave (54%) but 18-24 (26% of constituency) - Betfair Sportsbook 6.0
I wonder what ex-minister furnished the Standard (ed: G. Osborne) with this unattributed quote? * innocent face *
Is East Lothian in play