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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May’s firewall – the oldies who appear to staying loyal
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Corbyn needs to roll out a good old-fashioned "1 week to save the NHS" campaign IMO.
It will have more traction now than it did with Copeland IMO, because the social care clusterfuck has reactivated some of the old suspicions of Tory intentions (I've had a couple of people say things on the doorstep like "if she's going to start making people pay for their own elderly care, who says she won't just start charging for all sorts of things the NHS does?" -- that's especially from younger and middle-aged people who, frankly, don't seem to really understand how the social care system works currently). Plus, as much as PBers might sneer, I still think there's some mileage in the idea that she might put parts of the NHS out to tender for private American companies, as part of her desperation to get a trade deal with Trump.
Meanwhile Baroness Chakrabati is dying of embarrassment in a corner somewhere:
https://twitter.com/JournoStephen/status/869531844064284672
IMO what cuts through with people is when actual doctors and nurses talk about the pressures they are under or actual patients talk about what happened to them.
Now if Labour picked a leader who was a former doctor or a former nurse - I think they would have more credibility with the public.
That turned out to be as brilliant a defence as The Maginot Line.
Don't let the retired vote
It's typical Germany negotiations - start at item 1 get a decision, then move on to item 2.
But just in case it isn't - had a chance to consider my bet proposition?
Labour would have to be touching 40% for a NOM. That's not far off what they achieved in 2001.
No.
To be honest house prices are going to take a hit as I've been looking at moving for ages and everytime I do I just think not paying that for that.
Likewise my parents looked at a 2 bed flat in South Bucks recently. Their reaction was we'll stick where we are and redo the bathrooms...
It is truly repulsive behaviour on the part of the Left in this country. Repulsive.
( = price worth paying)
EVERY few years, the London Labour MP Jeremy Corbyn indulges his romantic support for Irish republicans by using his parliamentary privileges to give them a publicity platform. These occasions always also provide a showcase for Mr Corbyn's abiding qualities: his lack of wider political and moral judgment, his predilection for gesture politics, his insensitivity to the feelings of most Londoners and his indifference to the policies of his party.
Now he has done it again, this time by inviting Gerry Adams to Westminster in a week in which London is still reeling from its narrow escape from a major bombing, at a time when the IRA's reversion to violence has been arguably the principal cause of the deterioration of the situation this year in Northern Ireland, at a time when Parliament is not even sitting, and in the days leading up to his party's important annual conference on the eve of an election which Labour has to win.
Mr Corbyn's actions do not advance the cause of peace in Northern Ireland and are not seriously intended to do so. It is surprising that a politician as clever and important as the Sinn Fein leader should be bothered with him. Grown-up people ought to keep this childish sideshow in perspective.
Mr Corbyn is a fool, and a fool whom the Labour Party would probably be better off without. However, even fools have rights. As an elected MP Mr Corbyn is entitled to invite whom he pleases to Westminster, certainly including Mr Adams. The parliamentary authorities, let alone the Government, have no business trying to prevent him from doing so. It comes pretty ill from Conservative MPs, some of whom treat Westminster as a pig's trough for their own commercial clients, to pontificate about Mr Corbyn's judgment when their own is hardly any better.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/6cn1fc/incredible_1996_guardian_leader_on_the_ira_mr/
That means Labour gaining places like Lincoln, Peterborough and Southampton Itchen.
Given the UKIP + CON scores in those constituencies (of 55%+) and few remaining centre-left voters to draw on, Corbyn isn't going to take any of them without significant direct switching from Con-Lab, of which there is very little evidence.
On the continent, retirees are more Europhile than the youth.
In any case, while the NHS isn't enough on its own to get success for Labour, it's certainly a necessary part of any successful Labour campaign. Even in 1997, although Labour didn't talk much about the NHS for much of the campaign, they suddenly made it their main focal point in the last few days.
Until such time as the Scottish Parliament controls the rules on income tax avoidance, there is a risk that an increase in the Additional Rate of income tax in Scotland alone would lead to a loss of revenue.
However, we support an increase in the Additional Rate from 45p to 50p across the UK as a whole from 2018/19.
At a time when household budgets are under increasing pressure, SNP MPs will oppose any proposed increases in Value Added Tax or National Insurance.
https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/thesnp/pages/9544/attachments/original/1496139998/Manifesto_2017.pdf?1496139998
See previous thread if anyone's interested.
Strange goings on at @UKLabour race & faith manifesto launch - Told: "no mainstream journalists" allowed #SpacePremium? - We are now in!
Theresa May may be taking some of her base for granted, but she is campaigning where she needs to in order to maximise her seat tally. The biggest criticism that could be levelled is that it's too optimistic.
I'll be looking very carefully at where she goes in the last 72 hours.
Good enough for him eh, Mr TSE?
Just put the mind bleach away and put some yards in at being a seroius political commentator.
Tory: 55
Tories: 28
Cuts: 28
Education: 14
austerity: 12
Labour: 1
Independence: 8
referendum: 8
He is going to enjoy the next few years.
The serious talks start after Merkel's re-election. Prior to then it's our civil servants and diplomats nattering with their bureaucrats and diplomats, with a lot of political posturing on top.
He is a fat posh wimp
@faisalislam: Mcdonnell hits back at Conservatives after Corbyn childcare costings gaffe: "The only numbers in the Tory manifesto are the page numbers" pic.twitter.com/VyHG66jW0C
We have now cut the price to a market leading one.
Anyone have a link to the transcript, btw?
I know it boiled the piss of a few Tories.
Mrs May’s threat to walk away with no deal is the political equivalent of Britain shooting itself in the foot — or worse. The EU’s leaders know this and, as a negotiating tactic, it does not trouble them at all. What is far more worrying is that many Conservatives continue to view a descent into WTO rules as an attractive option. The more Mrs May utters her mantra that “no deal is better than a bad deal”, the more emboldened these Conservatives will feel.
https://www.ft.com/content/9a1109a0-452c-11e7-8d27-59b4dd6296b8
When you have devolution whats the point of promises like this. And if you are a clear minoriryvparty in westminster what power influence do you have... except over a coalition with labour.
She is less popular than the cause now
It's possible we'll see unexpected gains in places, whilst other "easier" targets stay Red.
I agree that she's damaged goods if she gets a tepid majority, but she'll still stick around.
@DPJHodges: @JohnRentoul Rumour going round they'll send Jeremy Corbyn.