These are the third party agreements that lapse in March 2019. On nuclear non-proliferation so power plants can continue operating (requires US Congressional approval), bilateral aviation agreements so our planes can fly internationally (seven important ones, I believe, including the US Will likely want to be renegotiated for the UK), product conformance, agriculture, trade, data regulation, customs. A lot of them require EU agreement to the renegotiation as well as the third party.
All in the capable hands of Liam Fox.
And some people say, no deal is better than a bad deal ..
If May wins the British people will have endorsed her position that no deal is better than a bad deal which keeps free movement intact and requires 100 billion euros of payments to the EU
She will certainly claim that mandate. But whether she can sustain it in the face of what it means in reality is another thing entirely, given that she has also said she will negotiate a Brexit deal that will improve standards of living. The British people are also voting for that, are they not?
No not really they took the choice that a slight drop in living standards was an acceptable price to pay to regain sovereignty and control immigration when they voted Leave, whether they still feel like that in a decade is another matter and then the single market may be on the cards again
Where in the Tory manifesto does it say that a slight drop in living standards is on offer?
The Remain campaign was nothing but a Leave vote would lead to a drop in living standards but the voters still voted Leave anyway
But this is a general election. It is the Tories that will be delivering Brexit and it is the Tories who have said that they will deliver one which improves living standards. Are they really going to say that they did not mean it?
They will certainly say they have delivered it. And who will notice otherwise?
People's everyday experiences will determine it: wage growth, prices, other costs etc. If things feel better then the Tories will be fine; if not, I doubt that saying people voted for a reduction in living standards in return for sovereignty will work.
Is this legit? Seems to be in most papers. If so, why are the Tories not pushing it? That's lethal in middle England.
It had young TheApocalypse having to reconsider her voting intentions last night, it was that shocking apparently.
The actual manifesto is pretty light on this, saying a review of council tax of which a land value tax would be an option.I've not seen much else written on it, so it doesn't seem like it has blown up yet.
Been looking at the local election results again and it seems that Labour was picking up about 10% of the UKIP vote where the latter didn't stand compared to previously, ie. they were getting around an extra 2% if UKIP had previously been on 20%. Might explain why the Labour vote is slightly up in the polls compared to GE2015. The vast majority went to the Tories and a bit to the LDs.
If a UKIP voter sat on their sofa and didn't vote the Labour share would go up by default. Not sure that's evidence of direct UKIP > Labour movement.
If the youth vote is as fired up for Jeremy as some of the polling companies believe why are there so few tangible signs of it?
Where are the eager young corbynite canvassunlikely Why no deluge of Labourleaflets thrust from an army of young hands?
Either these millions of young Labour supporters are demonstrating a rectitude that would make a shy Tory maiden aunt look brazen or they are all talk and no action and most unlikely to turn out in anything like the numbers currently forecast.
The polls are flattering Labour.
Young Labour corbynite canvassers have been very active here in Worthing at both the CC elections and the GE . The one party that has done nothing here are the Conservatives but they will win easily anyway .
Labour have done nowt here in Gateshead apart from sending a leaflet with an incredibly unprofessional photo of the candidate that looks like its been taken with a potato and cropped from a photo of a board meeting.
Safe seats eh?
By contrast, Labour very visible in nearby Hexham. Town centre stalls, and at the County Show(!). Not that it will do them much good. Cons not seen at all, (as far as I am aware).
Many it depends on CLP local organisation?
Hexham ?! Lol that is madness for Labour to think they can get that.
Not sure they think they can get it. Just that there are many activists out and about here. Anecdotal I know.
These are the third party agreements that lapse in March 2019. On nuclear non-proliferation so power plants can continue operating (requires US Congressional approval), bilateral aviation agreements so our planes can fly internationally (seven important ones, I believe, including the US Will likely want to be renegotiated for the UK), product conformance, agriculture, trade, data regulation, customs. A lot of them require EU agreement to the renegotiation as well as the third party.
All in the capable hands of Liam Fox.
And some people say, no deal is better than a bad deal ..
If May wins the British people will have endorsed her position that no deal is better than a bad deal which keeps free movement intact and requires 100 billion euros of payments to the EU
She will certainly claim that mandate. But whether she can sustain it in the face of what it means in reality is another thing entirely, given that she has also said she will negotiate a Brexit deal that will improve standards of living. The British people are also voting for that, are they not?
No not really they took the choice that a slight drop in living standards was an acceptable price to pay to regain sovereignty and control immigration when they voted Leave, whether they still feel like that in a decade is another matter and then the single market may be on the cards again
Where in the Tory manifesto does it say that a slight drop in living standards is on offer?
The Remain campaign was nothing but a Leave vote would lead to a drop in living standards but the voters still voted Leave anyway
But this is a general election. It is the Tories that will be delivering Brexit and it is the Tories who have said that they will deliver one which improves living standards. Are they really going to say that they did not mean it?
They will certainly say they have delivered it. And who will notice otherwise?
People's everyday experiences will determine it: wage growth, prices, other costs etc. If things feel better then the Tories will be fine; if not, I doubt that saying people voted for a reduction in living standards in return for sovereignty will work.
They will of course blame everything and everyone except Brexit. And, in several years time, who will be able to say they are wrong?
I like how the story is written up in TheSun though. They've given it a catchy media name, 'Garden Tax'. Lots of 'it was claimed'. Reference to it being in the 'small print' making it seem more sneaky, a mix of constituencies references 'Bolsover to Lincoln and Sunderland to Maldon in Essex'.
Martin Kettle on the background to May's 'naked' Corbyn:
Theresa May’s jibe that Jeremy Corbyn would be “alone and naked in the negotiating chamber” (see 12.54pm) if he was responsible for the UK’s Brexit talks was a deliberate echo of one of the bitterest and best remembered phrases in the Labour party’s internal history.
Today seems to be the first time May has really gone for Labour. So far the plan seems to have been to ignore them. So we have no mention of Labour in the Manifesto and barely a reference to them last night. It's an interesting change of tack.
If the youth vote is as fired up for Jeremy as some of the polling companies believe why are there so few tangible signs of it?
Where are the eager young corbynite canvassunlikely Why no deluge of Labourleaflets thrust from an army of young hands?
Either these millions of young Labour supporters are demonstrating a rectitude that would make a shy Tory maiden aunt look brazen or they are all talk and no action and most unlikely to turn out in anything like the numbers currently forecast.
The polls are flattering Labour.
Young Labour corbynite canvassers have been very active here in Worthing at both the CC elections and the GE . The one party that has done nothing here are the Conservatives but they will win easily anyway .
Labour have done nowt here in Gateshead apart from sending a leaflet with an incredibly unprofessional photo of the candidate that looks like its been taken with a potato and cropped from a photo of a board meeting.
Safe seats eh?
By contrast, Labour very visible in nearby Hexham. Town centre stalls, and at the County Show(!). Not that it will do them much good. Cons not seen at all, (as far as I am aware).
Many it depends on CLP local organisation?
Hexham ?! Lol that is madness for Labour to think they can get that.
Not sure they think they can get it. Just that there are many activists out and about here. Anecdotal I know.
The Gateshead Labour party obviously likes walking along Hadrian's Wall!
ICM gives the Tories a 15 point lead in England (the Tories and Labour are tied in the North). In Wales Labour has a 20 point lead. In Scotland the Tories are up to 26% with the SNP on 43% https://www.icmunlimited.com/polls/
That was one hell of an outlier showing Tories ahead in Wales then. Gone back home in a big way.
I like how the story is written up in TheSun though. They've given it a catchy media name, 'Garden Tax'. Lots of 'it was claimed'. Reference to it being in the 'small print' making it seem more sneaky, a mix of constituencies references 'Bolsover to Lincoln and Sunderland to Maldon in Essex'.
It's got the potential to cause all sorts of issues. It's entirely legitimate to want to tax the value of land but almost impossible to explain the logic in a two minute interview or during a debate. And it completely undercuts the 95% paying no higher taxes thing, as it can be portrayed as "all homeowners". Add in some choice IFS quotes and you can make it "Labour's sums only add up if they tax the average garden at £x".
These are the third party agreements that lapse in March 2019. On nuclear non-proliferation so power plants can continue operating (requires US Congressional approval), bilateral aviation agreements so our planes can fly internationally (seven important ones, I believe, including the US Will likely want to be renegotiated for the UK), product conformance, agriculture, trade, data regulation, customs. A lot of them require EU agreement to the renegotiation as well as the third party.
All in the capable hands of Liam Fox.
And some people say, no deal is better than a bad deal ..
If May wins the British people will have endorsed her position that no deal is better than a bad deal which keeps free movement intact and requires 100 billion euros of payments to the EU
She British people are also voting for that, are they not?
No not really they took the choice that a slight drop in living standards was an acceptable price to pay to regain sovereignty and control immigration when they voted Leave, whether they still feel like that in a decade is another matter and then the single market may be on the cards again
Where in the Tory manifesto does it say that a slight drop in living standards is on offer?
The Remain campaign was nothing but a Leave vote would lead to a drop in living standards but the voters still voted Leave anyway
But this is a general election. It is the Tories that will be delivering Brexit and it is the Tories who have said that they will deliver one which improves living standards. Are they really going to say that they did not mean it?
They will certainly say they have delivered it. And who will notice otherwise?
People's everyday experiences will determine it: wage growth, prices, other costs etc. If things feel better then the Tories will be fine; if not, I doubt that saying people voted for a reduction in living standards in return for sovereignty will work.
They will of course blame everything and everyone except Brexit. And, in several years time, who will be able to say they are wrong?
May's promises are all on record - in print, on tape, on film. This is the Brexit election. It will still be everywhere in four or five years time, especially if there is a transitional deal.
There are changes in methodology in the report from ICM, which seem to be new in this poll (though I'm not certain they weren't in last week's). Full details here
but briefly: they now allocate some of the people who refuse to give ANY information ("Total refusers"), partly by treating them as Partial Refusers (who say how they voted last time and are now unsure, who are generally assumed to be going to do the same), and THEN plus a fifth for Tories and minus a fifth for Labour, on the basis that last time total refusers were mostly Tory. This is very much guesswork on the basis of a sample of one.
They confirm that without their house adjustments they would get a result similar to Survation (Tories +6 instead of +12).
And they confirm that they are now sampling with actual candidates, so places without a UKIP candidate don't get a UKIP option, and they ask explicitly if the respondent is on the register.
They did this in the last one too. They are meddling quite a bit.
I like how the story is written up in TheSun though. They've given it a catchy media name, 'Garden Tax'. Lots of 'it was claimed'. Reference to it being in the 'small print' making it seem more sneaky, a mix of constituencies references 'Bolsover to Lincoln and Sunderland to Maldon in Essex'.
It's got the potential to cause all sorts of issues. It's entirely legitimate to want to tax the value of land but almost impossible to explain the logic in a two minute interview or during a debate. And it completely undercuts the 95% paying no higher taxes thing, as it can be portrayed as "all homeowners". Add in some choice IFS quotes and you can make it "Labour's sums only add up if they tax the average garden at £x".
That's why its only a promise to review with this an option, I would imagine - they can say it is not a definite plan.
Three weeks back, the Tories were having fun visiting places they never knew existed, like Bolsover. Is there any evidence that they have rowed back - and the Cabinet are visiting rather less ambitious targets in the past week or so? Be curious to know....
Leadsom was photographed heading to Bolsover with a car full of activists at the weekend iirc.
If the youth vote is as fired up for Jeremy as some of the polling companies believe why are there so few tangible signs of it?
Where are the eager young corbynite canvassunlikely Why no deluge of Labourleaflets thrust from an army of young hands?
Either these millions of young Labour supporters are demonstrating a rectitude that would make a shy Tory maiden aunt look brazen or they are all talk and no action and most unlikely to turn out in anything like the numbers currently forecast.
The polls are flattering Labour.
Young Labour corbynite canvassers have been very active here in Worthing at both the CC elections and the GE . The one party that has done nothing here are the Conservatives but they will win easily anyway .
Labour have done nowt here in Gateshead apart from sending a leaflet with an incredibly unprofessional photo of the candidate that looks like its been taken with a potato and cropped from a photo of a board meeting.
Safe seats eh?
By contrast, Labour very visible in nearby Hexham. Town centre stalls, and at the County Show(!). Not that it will do them much good. Cons not seen at all, (as far as I am aware).
Many it depends on CLP local organisation?
Hexham ?! Lol that is madness for Labour to think they can get that.
Not sure they think they can get it. Just that there are many activists out and about here. Anecdotal I know.
The Gateshead Labour party obviously likes walking along Hadrian's Wall!
If the youth vote is as fired up for Jeremy as some of the polling companies believe why are there so few tangible signs of it?
Where are the eager young corbynite canvassunlikely Why no deluge of Labourleaflets thrust from an army of young hands?
Either these millions of young Labour supporters are demonstrating a rectitude that would make a shy Tory maiden aunt look brazen or they are all talk and no action and most unlikely to turn out in anything like the numbers currently forecast.
The polls are flattering Labour.
Young Labour corbynite canvassers have been very active here in Worthing at both the CC elections and the GE . The one party that has done nothing here are the Conservatives but they will win easily anyway .
Labour have done nowt here in Gateshead apart from sending a leaflet with an incredibly unprofessional photo of the candidate that looks like its been taken with a potato and cropped from a photo of a board meeting.
Safe seats eh?
By contrast, Labour very visible in nearby Hexham. Town centre stalls, and at the County Show(!). Not that it will do them much good. Cons not seen at all, (as far as I am aware).
Many it depends on CLP local organisation?
Hexham ?! Lol that is madness for Labour to think they can get that.
Not sure they think they can get it. Just that there are many activists out and about here. Anecdotal I know.
The Gateshead Labour party obviously likes walking along Hadrian's Wall!
Three weeks back, the Tories were having fun visiting places they never knew existed, like Bolsover. Is there any evidence that they have rowed back - and the Cabinet are visiting rather less ambitious targets in the past week or so? Be curious to know....
Leadsom was photographed heading to Bolsover with a car full of activists at the weekend iirc.
Some did speculate it was to get her out of the way though.
Three weeks back, the Tories were having fun visiting places they never knew existed, like Bolsover. Is there any evidence that they have rowed back - and the Cabinet are visiting rather less ambitious targets in the past week or so? Be curious to know....
If your anecdotes from Torbay are accurate then the deep leave Tory targets are still well in play.
I have a lot of confidence in Messina/Crosby's sniper targeting from GE2015, and the fact Crosby is now running the whole show.
If cabinet ministers are still being sent to places like Tynemouth and Bolsover, they are being sent for a reason.
UKIP->Lab swing seems definite, and is singled out by ICM as the most significant change. Tories still benefiting more from UKIP's collapse, but much less than before.
7% of Tories say their chance of actually voting Labour has increased - that's about 6% of the electorate, of course. 3% of Labour say the opposite (=1% of the electorate). That's probably a fair measure of the potential two-party swing vote still up for grabs.
There is some LD tactical voting on display. In LD seats under threat, 15% of voters say the campaign has made them more likely to vote LD, while 25% say less likely, but in Lab-Con mnarginals the figures are 9 and 19.
Corbyn is seen as running a better campaign than May by a small margin overall (+2 net vs -2_ but by a bigger margin in Lab-Con marginals (+7 vs -7). This may be because by definition those seats are slightly more Labour than otherwise, and relaly just suggests that targeting isn't having much effect. However, Labour is shown as 5 points ahead in both Lab marginals and Con marginals, which is exciting but they're small subsamples, so don't get carried away.
Martin Kettle on the background to May's 'naked' Corbyn:
Theresa May’s jibe that Jeremy Corbyn would be “alone and naked in the negotiating chamber” (see 12.54pm) if he was responsible for the UK’s Brexit talks was a deliberate echo of one of the bitterest and best remembered phrases in the Labour party’s internal history.
Today seems to be the first time May has really gone for Labour. So far the plan seems to have been to ignore them. So we have no mention of Labour in the Manifesto and barely a reference to them last night. It's an interesting change of tack.
Meanwhile the SNP manifesto mentions the Tories/Tory 83 times, Labour once and the Lib Dems not at all.....
Still not had anybody run out to throw my leaflet back at me, still not had anyone telling me to "fuck off!" I'm not used to it being this civil.....
Is that what usually happens? I've canvassed in places from Glasgow tenements to Sussex villages for 50 years, and neither of those events has ever happened to me! Torbay must be a jolly scary place.
Leaflets being thrown back at you by someone running out their house? Oh yes. Usually several times each election.
I usually encounter at least one very angry or hectoring person as well, who also tries to sabotage your work with neighbours and passers by, but they are rare.
To be fair, I've had the same in the past when delivering non-political leaflets. I think some people sit alone, stewing in their own bile, and a leafletter is the perfect outlet.
I had one guy put his son outside his door, to try and stop me delivering the leaflet, which didn't click with me at the time, and I just said "excuse me, sorry mate", and I just dodged past him to post it.
Then he theatrically pushed the leaflet back out his own letterbox about ten seconds later, all scrunched up, littering his own front porch in doing so but did nothing to pick it up (I was about two homes down the road by then, as I work fast) and his son was laughing at me, with the father swearing - I presume, he said something, although I couldn't quite hear what it was.
I was shocked, but shrugged it off and carried on.
Some people are just quite angry and resentful in general, and looking for a target.
About 1% of the population exhibit psychopathological tendencies so you are quite likely to come across it when canvassing.
These are the third party agreements that lapse in March 2019. On nuclear non-proliferation so power plants can continue operating (requires US Congressional approval), bilateral aviation agreements so our planes can fly internationally (seven important ones, I believe, including the US Will likely want to be renegotiated for the UK), product conformance, agriculture, trade, data regulation, customs. A lot of them require EU agreement to the renegotiation as well as the third party.
All in the capable hands of Liam Fox.
And some people say, no deal is better than a bad deal ..
If May wins the British people will have endorsed her position that no deal is better than a bad deal which keeps free movement intact and requires 100 billion euros of payments to the EU
My fear isn't that we will walk away without a deal. I think the consequences of doing so are so severe that there is very little likelihood. It's that we will end up in a take or leave it situation where we feel obliged to take what we think is the bad deal but are massively resentful about it. A bit like Greece and its membership of the Euro - doesn't want to be in but can't get rid of it. If the whole point of Brexit is to take control and have less to do with an EU that we don't like, it's a bad situation to be in.
Much relief in Tory circles at that ICM. The surge has peaked, it seems.
I reckon TMay will achieve a ten point lead or more, and with an extra boost in marginals and Scotland, and young people failing to turn out, as ever, she will win at a canter.
After all this huffing and puffing, fully a month later, maybe my original prediction of a 80-100 seat majority was quite accurate.
Too early to say but it looks more promising.
Oh, for sure. I'll be back to the screaming abdabs by this evening, when YouGov have the Tory lead down to 4....
But ICM and Comres are the two best, to my mind, and they both have it around 12....
Sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof.
If this all ends up with a thumping Tory majority, we'll look back wondering WTF all the fuss was about.
I wonder how the Twittersphere will handle it? Dr Eoin Clarke will probably hang himself.
Has Lab confirmed their representative for tomorrow's BBC debate yet?
If Corbyn is going to cause a surprise and do it I would have thought they would say tonight rather than last minute - to cause May more embarrassment and in time to create publicity to get more people watching.
These are the third party agreements that lapse in March 2019. On nuclear non-proliferation so power plants can continue operating (requires US Congressional approval), bilateral aviation agreements so our planes can fly internationally (seven important ones, I believe, including the US Will likely want to be renegotiated for the UK), product conformance, agriculture, trade, data regulation, customs. A lot of them require EU agreement to the renegotiation as well as the third party.
All in the capable hands of Liam Fox.
And some people say, no deal is better than a bad deal ..
If May wins the British people will have endorsed her position that no deal is better than a bad deal which keeps free movement intact and requires 100 billion euros of payments to the EU
My fear isn't that we will walk away without a deal. I think the consequences of doing so are so severe that there is very little likelihood. It's that we will end up in a take or leave it situation where we feel obliged to take what we think is the bad deal but are massively resentful about it. A bit like Greece and its membership of the Euro - doesn't want to be in but can't get rid of it. If the whole point of Brexit is to take control and have less to do with an EU that we don't like, it's a bad situation to be in.
No we voted Leave because unlike Greece we can walk, over 50% of UK exports go outside the EU and the UK is the 5th largest economy in the world, it would be tough but the UK would survive
Ms. Apocalypse, worth noting there's a wide range of ages of PBers. I don't think Mr. Eagles is very old, which may explain why he hasn't been able to develop a mature understanding of classical history.
Dr. HQ, interesting. When I looked at this, briefly, at university, the rate was a quarter percent in the UK and 1% in the US.
Also, psychopaths tend to be successful and, generally, PBers are well above average when it comes to success.
Anyway, got to resume proofreading now. Play nicely, everyone.
I had an interesting wander round large parts of my constituency today (pretty densely populated so it's not hard). Some things were very apparent.
Labour have enthused their well-off Remainerstan base. The affluent townhouses in the Labour ward, which had previously been decked out in Remain posters in the EU ref, were adorned with huge Labour boards. This is the ward of the Labour councillor who is the PPC.
Outside of this, **** all. Both Labour and Kippy Leave areas were devoid of signs completely. These places were not shy in the EU ref.
Tory Remainerstan had some Conservative boards sprinkled about, but it was notable the general the lack of enthusiasm.
Labour's Remainer core will turn out, but the nigh 40% of the Labour VI that are Leavers i'm not so sure. I'm not yet convinced turnout will be high, we'll see if things change next week.
Ms. Apocalypse, worth noting there's a wide range of ages of PBers. I don't think Mr. Eagles is very old, which may explain why he hasn't been able to develop a mature understanding of classical history.
Wait, does that mean you are older than TSE? I am so bad at discerning peoples' ages.
These are the third party agreements that lapse in March 2019. On nuclear non-proliferation so power plants can continue operating (requires US Congressional approval), bilateral aviation agreements so our planes can fly internationally (seven important ones, I believe, including the US Will likely want to be renegotiated for the UK), product conformance, agriculture, trade, data regulation, customs. A lot of them require EU agreement to the renegotiation as well as the third party.
All in the capable hands of Liam Fox.
And some people say, no deal is better than a bad deal ..
If May wins the British people will have endorsed her position that no deal is better than a bad deal which keeps free movement intact and requires 100 billion euros of payments to the EU
She will certainly claim that mandate. But whether she can sustain it in the face of what it means in reality is another thing entirely, given that she has also said she will negotiate a Brexit deal that will improve standards of living. The British people are also voting for that, are they not?
No not really they took the choice that a slight drop in living standards was an acceptable price to pay to regain sovereignty and control immigration when they voted Leave, whether they still feel like that in a decade is another matter and then the single market may be on the cards again
Where in the Tory manifesto does it say that a slight drop in living standards is on offer?
The Remain campaign was nothing but a Leave vote would lead to a drop in living standards but the voters still voted Leave anyway
But this is a general election. It is the Tories that will be delivering Brexit and it is the Tories who have said that they will deliver one which improves living standards. Are they really going to say that they did not mean it?
The Tories have said they will deliver immigration control and sovereignty May has never said Brexit will boost our living standards just we can make it a success
I had an interesting wander round large parts of my constituency today (pretty densely populated so it's not hard). Some things were very apparent.
Labour have enthused their well-off Remainerstan base. The affluent townhouses in the Labour ward, which had previously been decked out in Remain posters in the EU ref, were adorned with huge Labour boards. This is the ward of the Labour councillor who is the PPC.
Outside of this, **** all. Both Labour and Kippy Leave areas were devoid of signs completely. These places were not shy in the EU ref.
Tory Remainerstan had some Conservative boards sprinkled about, but it was notable general the lack of enthusiasm.
Labour's Remainer core will turn out, but the nigh 40% of the Labour VI that are Leavers i'm not so sure. I'm not yet convinced turnout will be high, we'll see if things change next week.
Where is this ?
Labour definitely "looked" stronger in the strong middle class remain (S11 of Sheff Central) and Totley of Hallam than round near my leave part of NED (Where Owls reckons they've given up)
Ms. Apocalypse, worth noting there's a wide range of ages of PBers. I don't think Mr. Eagles is very old, which may explain why he hasn't been able to develop a mature understanding of classical history.
Dr. HQ, interesting. When I looked at this, briefly, at university, the rate was a quarter percent in the UK and 1% in the US.
Also, psychopaths tend to be successful and, generally, PBers are well above average when it comes to success.
Anyway, got to resume proofreading now. Play nicely, everyone.
The only PBers who I know who aren't *that* old are RobD, kle4 and yourself.
I thought everyone else was about 40+ at the very least.
If the youth vote is as fired up for Jeremy as some of the polling companies believe why are there so few tangible signs of it?
Where are the eager young corbynite canvassunlikely Why no deluge of Labourleaflets thrust from an army of young hands?
Either these millions of young Labour supporters are demonstrating a rectitude that would make a shy Tory maiden aunt look brazen or they are all talk and no action and most unlikely to turn out in anything like the numbers currently forecast.
The polls are flattering Labour.
Young Labour corbynite canvassers have been very active here in Worthing at both the CC elections and the GE . The one party that has done nothing here are the Conservatives but they will win easily anyway .
Labour have done nowt here in Gateshead apart from sending a leaflet with an incredibly unprofessional photo of the candidate that looks like its been taken with a potato and cropped from a photo of a board meeting.
Safe seats eh?
By contrast, Labour very visible in nearby Hexham. Town centre stalls, and at the County Show(!). Not that it will do them much good. Cons not seen at all, (as far as I am aware).
Many it depends on CLP local organisation?
Hexham ?! Lol that is madness for Labour to think they can get that.
Not sure they think they can get it. Just that there are many activists out and about here. Anecdotal I know.
Liz Kendall seems to be able to turn them out, even in the rain:
One Tory candidate from the region said he hadn’t seen anything of the wobble that the polls were talking about. He said: “I wouldn’t want to be anything other than a Tory in the West Midlands right now. She works better than Cameron here – the background, something about that I think. She’s a bit like Thatcher was in the West Midlands.”
Three weeks back, the Tories were having fun visiting places they never knew existed, like Bolsover. Is there any evidence that they have rowed back - and the Cabinet are visiting rather less ambitious targets in the past week or so? Be curious to know....
If your anecdotes from Torbay are accurate then the deep leave Tory targets are still well in play.
My reports were accurate last time - if anything, I slightly underbid the majority (I thought around 2,500 - it was 3,286 in the end). I don't think it will be 11,500 majority Lord Ashcroft was suggesting, but anything north of 8k should make it quite safe next time around).
As to how much you can extrapolate? Dunno. UKIP has as much life as a Norwegian Blue, that I do know. (I noticed that in a polling report on Clegg's seat of Sheffield Hallam, UKIP had lost 95% of their 2015 vote.)
Ms. Apocalypse, worth noting there's a wide range of ages of PBers. I don't think Mr. Eagles is very old, which may explain why he hasn't been able to develop a mature understanding of classical history.
Dr. HQ, interesting. When I looked at this, briefly, at university, the rate was a quarter percent in the UK and 1% in the US.
Also, psychopaths tend to be successful and, generally, PBers are well above average when it comes to success.
Anyway, got to resume proofreading now. Play nicely, everyone.
The only PBers who I know who aren't *that* old are RobD, kle4 and yourself.
I thought everyone else was about 40+ at the very least.
Ms. Apocalypse, worth noting there's a wide range of ages of PBers. I don't think Mr. Eagles is very old, which may explain why he hasn't been able to develop a mature understanding of classical history.
Dr. HQ, interesting. When I looked at this, briefly, at university, the rate was a quarter percent in the UK and 1% in the US.
Also, psychopaths tend to be successful and, generally, PBers are well above average when it comes to success.
Anyway, got to resume proofreading now. Play nicely, everyone.
The only PBers who I know who aren't *that* old are RobD, kle4 and yourself.
I thought everyone else was about 40+ at the very least.
If the youth vote is as fired up for Jeremy as some of the polling companies believe why are there so few tangible signs of it?
Where are the eager young corbynite canvassunlikely Why no deluge of Labourleaflets thrust from an army of young hands?
Either these millions of young Labour supporters are demonstrating a rectitude that would make a shy Tory maiden aunt look brazen or they are all talk and no action and most unlikely to turn out in anything like the numbers currently forecast.
The polls are flattering Labour.
Young Labour corbynite canvassers have been very active here in Worthing at both the CC elections and the GE . The one party that has done nothing here are the Conservatives but they will win easily anyway .
Labour have done nowt here in Gateshead apart from sending a leaflet with an incredibly unprofessional photo of the candidate that looks like its been taken with a potato and cropped from a photo of a board meeting.
Safe seats eh?
By contrast, Labour very visible in nearby Hexham. Town centre stalls, and at the County Show(!). Not that it will do them much good. Cons not seen at all, (as far as I am aware).
Many it depends on CLP local organisation?
Hexham ?! Lol that is madness for Labour to think they can get that.
Not sure they think they can get it. Just that there are many activists out and about here. Anecdotal I know.
Liz Kendall seems to be able to turn them out, even in the rain:
I like Liz - it's a shame she and the rest will be kowtowing to the Corbynites after June 8th as they realise the man and/or his message are so popular they can no longer try to wrestle control from his faction.
Martin Kettle on the background to May's 'naked' Corbyn:
Theresa May’s jibe that Jeremy Corbyn would be “alone and naked in the negotiating chamber” (see 12.54pm) if he was responsible for the UK’s Brexit talks was a deliberate echo of one of the bitterest and best remembered phrases in the Labour party’s internal history.
Today seems to be the first time May has really gone for Labour. So far the plan seems to have been to ignore them. So we have no mention of Labour in the Manifesto and barely a reference to them last night. It's an interesting change of tack.
This next 7 days is the critical period to slag off your opponents.. It is sufficient to seep into the consciousness and not be forgotten in a further week's time..
One Tory candidate from the region said he hadn’t seen anything of the wobble that the polls were talking about. He said: “I wouldn’t want to be anything other than a Tory in the West Midlands right now. She works better than Cameron here – the background, something about that I think. She’s a bit like Thatcher was in the West Midlands.”
Ms. Apocalypse, worth noting there's a wide range of ages of PBers. I don't think Mr. Eagles is very old, which may explain why he hasn't been able to develop a mature understanding of classical history.
Dr. HQ, interesting. When I looked at this, briefly, at university, the rate was a quarter percent in the UK and 1% in the US.
Also, psychopaths tend to be successful and, generally, PBers are well above average when it comes to success.
Anyway, got to resume proofreading now. Play nicely, everyone.
The only PBers who I know who aren't *that* old are RobD, kle4 and yourself.
I thought everyone else was about 40+ at the very least.
One Tory candidate from the region said he hadn’t seen anything of the wobble that the polls were talking about. He said: “I wouldn’t want to be anything other than a Tory in the West Midlands right now. She works better than Cameron here – the background, something about that I think. She’s a bit like Thatcher was in the West Midlands.”
These are the third party agreements that lapse in March 2019. On nuclear non-proliferation so power plants can continue operating (requires US Congressional approval), bilateral aviation agreements so our planes can fly internationally (seven important ones, I believe, including the US Will likely want to be renegotiated for the UK), product conformance, agriculture, trade, data regulation, customs. A lot of them require EU agreement to the renegotiation as well as the third party.
All in the capable hands of Liam Fox.
And some people say, no deal is better than a bad deal ..
If May wins the British people will have endorsed her position that no deal is better than a bad deal which keeps free movement intact and requires 100 billion euros of payments to the EU
My fear isn't that we will walk away without a deal. I think the consequences of doing so are so severe that there is very little likelihood. It's that we will end up in a take or leave it situation where we feel obliged to take what we think is the bad deal but are massively resentful about it. A bit like Greece and its membership of the Euro - doesn't want to be in but can't get rid of it. If the whole point of Brexit is to take control and have less to do with an EU that we don't like, it's a bad situation to be in.
No we voted Leave because unlike Greece we can walk, over 50% of UK exports go outside the EU and the UK is the 5th largest economy in the world, it would be tough but the UK would survive</blockquo
yep, the UK would survive, but would the Tories get re-elected in tough times in 2022? In which case, would Mrs May walk...?
Ms. Apocalypse, worth noting there's a wide range of ages of PBers. I don't think Mr. Eagles is very old, which may explain why he hasn't been able to develop a mature understanding of classical history.
Dr. HQ, interesting. When I looked at this, briefly, at university, the rate was a quarter percent in the UK and 1% in the US.
Also, psychopaths tend to be successful and, generally, PBers are well above average when it comes to success.
Anyway, got to resume proofreading now. Play nicely, everyone.
The only PBers who I know who aren't *that* old are RobD, kle4 and yourself.
I thought everyone else was about 40+ at the very least.
Me and Eagles are both mid 30s.
So is Tissue Price. He's just under 18 months younger than me.
Jeremy Corbyn suffers backlash after Mumsnet users accuse him of dodging tough questions in favour of 'fluff'
After the site’s live webchat with the Labour leader finished, one user said he had “just responded to a few arse lick comments” while another branded the event “a piss take”.
It came just hours after Mr Corbyn endured an awkward BBC interview which saw him struggle to set out how much one of his key childcare policies would cost.
Ms. Apocalypse, worth noting there's a wide range of ages of PBers. I don't think Mr. Eagles is very old, which may explain why he hasn't been able to develop a mature understanding of classical history.
Dr. HQ, interesting. When I looked at this, briefly, at university, the rate was a quarter percent in the UK and 1% in the US.
Also, psychopaths tend to be successful and, generally, PBers are well above average when it comes to success.
Anyway, got to resume proofreading now. Play nicely, everyone.
The only PBers who I know who aren't *that* old are RobD, kle4 and yourself.
I thought everyone else was about 40+ at the very least.
There are some youngfogies here in their twenties, with the politics of a long retired colonel. fiftysomethings are the mode probably.
If Corbyn increases the labour voting share, but not enough to get anywhere near power, the biggest losers will be the Labour moderates. They'll have no chance of 'regaining' control from the Corbynites.
I'm not sure whether this is a bad thing or not. Having a Labour Party with radical values (albeit not ones that actually endanger the nation) is a good idea. With an untainted leadership it'd give the Tories a run for their money, although if a *lot* of Labour wets left for the LibDems or a new party the split in the vote might create a 1983-style situation.
What will certainly be fun to behold, if Corbyn holds on, or is replaced by one of his allies, is the inevitable crossover in the polls as Brexit begins to bite. If 10-20% of the Tories' 50+ bulwark turn against May it'll make the next election very interesting.
I had an interesting wander round large parts of my constituency today (pretty densely populated so it's not hard). Some things were very apparent.
Labour have enthused their well-off Remainerstan base. The affluent townhouses in the Labour ward, which had previously been decked out in Remain posters in the EU ref, were adorned with huge Labour boards. This is the ward of the Labour councillor who is the PPC.
Outside of this, **** all. Both Labour and Kippy Leave areas were devoid of signs completely. These places were not shy in the EU ref.
Tory Remainerstan had some Conservative boards sprinkled about, but it was notable general the lack of enthusiasm.
Labour's Remainer core will turn out, but the nigh 40% of the Labour VI that are Leavers i'm not so sure. I'm not yet convinced turnout will be high, we'll see if things change next week.
Where is this ?
Labour definitely "looked" stronger in the strong middle class remain (S11 of Sheff Central) and Totley of Hallam than round near my leave part of NED (Where Owls reckons they've given up)
Not sure why Remainers are so ardent for Corbyn's Labour. None of his gang of clowns is remotely positive about the EU as far as I can see. And if Corbyn had put any welly into the Referendum then things might have been different.
Ms. Apocalypse, worth noting there's a wide range of ages of PBers. I don't think Mr. Eagles is very old, which may explain why he hasn't been able to develop a mature understanding of classical history.
Dr. HQ, interesting. When I looked at this, briefly, at university, the rate was a quarter percent in the UK and 1% in the US.
Also, psychopaths tend to be successful and, generally, PBers are well above average when it comes to success.
Anyway, got to resume proofreading now. Play nicely, everyone.
The only PBers who I know who aren't *that* old are RobD, kle4 and yourself.
I thought everyone else was about 40+ at the very least.
Jeremy Corbyn suffers backlash after Mumsnet users accuse him of dodging tough questions in favour of 'fluff'
After the site’s live webchat with the Labour leader finished, one user said he had “just responded to a few arse lick comments” while another branded the event “a piss take”.
It came just hours after Mr Corbyn endured an awkward BBC interview which saw him struggle to set out how much one of his key childcare policies would cost.
Pathetic Tories dont bother costing any commitment
How much will Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher Policy raise??????????
That rather undercuts their patheticness though - they may not have costed properly, but they did admit to their own core vote they would pay more and lose freebies.
These are the third party agreements that lapse in March 2019. On nuclear non-proliferation so power plants can continue operating (requires US Congressional approval), bilateral aviation agreements so our planes can fly internationally (seven important ones, I believe, including the US Will likely want to be renegotiated for the UK), product conformance, agriculture, trade, data regulation, customs. A lot of them require EU agreement to the renegotiation as well as the third party.
All in the capable hands of Liam Fox.
And some people say, no deal is better than a bad deal ..
If May wins the British people will have endorsed her position that no deal is better than a bad deal which keeps free movement intact and requires 100 billion euros of payments to the EU
She will certainly claim that mandate. But whether she can sustain it in the face of what it means in reality is another thing entirely, given that she has also said she will negotiate a Brexit deal that will improve standards of living. The British people are also voting for that, are they not?
No not really they took the choice that a slight drop in living standards was an acceptable price to pay to regain sovereignty and control immigration when they voted Leave, whether they still feel like that in a decade is another matter and then the single market may be on the cards again
Where in the Tory manifesto does it say that a slight drop in living standards is on offer?
The Remain campaign was nothing but a Leave vote would lead to a drop in living standards but the voters still voted Leave anyway
But this is a general election. It is the Tories that will be delivering Brexit and it is the Tories who have said that they will deliver one which improves living standards. Are they really going to say that they did not mean it?
The Tories have said they will deliver immigration control and sovereignty May has never said Brexit will boost our living standards just we can make it a success
I had an interesting wander round large parts of my constituency today (pretty densely populated so it's not hard). Some things were very apparent.
Labour have enthused their well-off Remainerstan base. The affluent townhouses in the Labour ward, which had previously been decked out in Remain posters in the EU ref, were adorned with huge Labour boards. This is the ward of the Labour councillor who is the PPC.
Outside of this, **** all. Both Labour and Kippy Leave areas were devoid of signs completely. These places were not shy in the EU ref.
Tory Remainerstan had some Conservative boards sprinkled about, but it was notable general the lack of enthusiasm.
Labour's Remainer core will turn out, but the nigh 40% of the Labour VI that are Leavers i'm not so sure. I'm not yet convinced turnout will be high, we'll see if things change next week.
Where is this ?
Labour definitely "looked" stronger in the strong middle class remain (S11 of Sheff Central) and Totley of Hallam than round near my leave part of NED (Where Owls reckons they've given up)
Ms. Apocalypse, worth noting there's a wide range of ages of PBers. I don't think Mr. Eagles is very old, which may explain why he hasn't been able to develop a mature understanding of classical history.
Dr. HQ, interesting. When I looked at this, briefly, at university, the rate was a quarter percent in the UK and 1% in the US.
Also, psychopaths tend to be successful and, generally, PBers are well above average when it comes to success.
Anyway, got to resume proofreading now. Play nicely, everyone.
The only PBers who I know who aren't *that* old are RobD, kle4 and yourself.
I thought everyone else was about 40+ at the very least.
I don't always agree with Liz Kendall, but the way she has been vilified by Corbynistas has been terrible. They really hate the idea of the Labour party being a board church.
Another one who they seem to truly *hate* is Laura K. I've never noticed anything wrong with her reports all in all, but according to Corbynistas that I know apparently, she's always biased against Corbyn....
Jeremy Corbyn suffers backlash after Mumsnet users accuse him of dodging tough questions in favour of 'fluff'
After the site’s live webchat with the Labour leader finished, one user said he had “just responded to a few arse lick comments” while another branded the event “a piss take”.
It came just hours after Mr Corbyn endured an awkward BBC interview which saw him struggle to set out how much one of his key childcare policies would cost.
Jeremy Corbyn suffers backlash after Mumsnet users accuse him of dodging tough questions in favour of 'fluff'
After the site’s live webchat with the Labour leader finished, one user said he had “just responded to a few arse lick comments” while another branded the event “a piss take”.
It came just hours after Mr Corbyn endured an awkward BBC interview which saw him struggle to set out how much one of his key childcare policies would cost.
Ms. Apocalypse, worth noting there's a wide range of ages of PBers. I don't think Mr. Eagles is very old, which may explain why he hasn't been able to develop a mature understanding of classical history.
Dr. HQ, interesting. When I looked at this, briefly, at university, the rate was a quarter percent in the UK and 1% in the US.
Also, psychopaths tend to be successful and, generally, PBers are well above average when it comes to success.
Anyway, got to resume proofreading now. Play nicely, everyone.
The only PBers who I know who aren't *that* old are RobD, kle4 and yourself.
I thought everyone else was about 40+ at the very least.
There are some youngfogies here in their twenties, with the politics of a long retired colonel. fiftysomethings are the mode probably.
My working assumption has always been that quite a few of the PB Tories are relatively young and male. Sometimes you can almost smell the testosterone :-)
Ms. Apocalypse, worth noting there's a wide range of ages of PBers. I don't think Mr. Eagles is very old, which may explain why he hasn't been able to develop a mature understanding of classical history.
Dr. HQ, interesting. When I looked at this, briefly, at university, the rate was a quarter percent in the UK and 1% in the US.
Also, psychopaths tend to be successful and, generally, PBers are well above average when it comes to success.
Anyway, got to resume proofreading now. Play nicely, everyone.
The only PBers who I know who aren't *that* old are RobD, kle4 and yourself.
I thought everyone else was about 40+ at the very least.
There are some youngfogies here in their twenties, with the politics of a long retired colonel.
These are the third party agreements that lapse in March 2019. On nuclear non-proliferation so power plants can continue operating (requires US Congressional approval), bilateral aviation agreements so our planes can fly internationally (seven important ones, I believe, including the US Will likely want to be renegotiated for the UK), product conformance, agriculture, trade, data regulation, customs. A lot of them require EU agreement to the renegotiation as well as the third party.
All in the capable hands of Liam Fox.
And some people say, no deal is better than a bad deal ..
If May wins the British people will have endorsed her position that no deal is better than a bad deal which keeps free movement intact and requires 100 billion euros of payments to the EU
My fear isn't that we will walk away without a deal. I think the consequences of doing so are so severe that there is very little likelihood. It's that we will end up in a take or leave it situation where we feel obliged to take what we think is the bad deal but are massively resentful about it. A bit like Greece and its membership of the Euro - doesn't want to be in but can't get rid of it. If the whole point of Brexit is to take control and have less to do with an EU that we don't like, it's a bad situation to be in.
No we voted Leave because unlike Greece we can walk, over 50% of UK exports go outside the EU and the UK is the 5th largest economy in the world, it would be tough but the UK would survive
We would be out well before then and I still can't see Corbyn winning in 2022 either but by 2027 a more moderate Labour leader may win on a pro single market platform
Jeremy Corbyn suffers backlash after Mumsnet users accuse him of dodging tough questions in favour of 'fluff'
After the site’s live webchat with the Labour leader finished, one user said he had “just responded to a few arse lick comments” while another branded the event “a piss take”.
It came just hours after Mr Corbyn endured an awkward BBC interview which saw him struggle to set out how much one of his key childcare policies would cost.
Still not had anybody run out to throw my leaflet back at me, still not had anyone telling me to "fuck off!" I'm not used to it being this civil.....
Is that what usually happens? I've canvassed in places from Glasgow tenements to Sussex villages for 50 years, and neither of those events has ever happened to me! Torbay must be a jolly scary place.
Leaflets being thrown back at you by someone running out their house? Oh yes. Usually several times each election.
I usually encounter at least one very angry or hectoring person as well, who also tries to sabotage your work with neighbours and passers by, but they are rare.
To be fair, I've had the same in the past when delivering non-political leaflets. I think some people sit alone, stewing in their own bile, and a leafletter is the perfect outlet.
I had one guy put his son outside his door, to try and stop me delivering the leaflet, which didn't click with me at the time, and I just said "excuse me, sorry mate", and I just dodged past him to post it.
Then he theatrically pushed the leaflet back out his own letterbox about ten seconds later, all scrunched up, littering his own front porch in doing so but did nothing to pick it up (I was about two homes down the road by then, as I work fast) and his son was laughing at me, with the father swearing - I presume, he said something, although I couldn't quite hear what it was.
I was shocked, but shrugged it off and carried on.
Some people are just quite angry and resentful in general, and looking for a target.
About 1% of the population exhibit psychopathological tendencies so you are quite likely to come across it when canvassing.
I'm sure nobody on PB comes from that 1%.
Back in the eighties an enthusiastic friend of mine was very left wing. He sold Labour Briefing, which is the only reason I had heard of it before the current election. I don't think even he actually read it mind. But he was canvassing on a council estate and got into an argument with an old woman. He annoyed her so much she bit him. He decided to go to the doctors and get a jab just in case. He then reacted to the jab and ended up in hospital. It meant he missed the 1983 election results, which he wouldn't have enjoyed at all. So it wasn't entirely bad.
If the youth vote is as fired up for Jeremy as some of the polling companies believe why are there so few tangible signs of it?
Where are the eager young corbynite canvassunlikely Why no deluge of Labourleaflets thrust from an army of young hands?
Either these millions of young Labour supporters are demonstrating a rectitude that would make a shy Tory maiden aunt look brazen or they are all talk and no action and most unlikely to turn out in anything like the numbers currently forecast.
The polls are flattering Labour.
Young Labour corbynite canvassers have been very active here in Worthing at both the CC elections and the GE . The one party that has done nothing here are the Conservatives but they will win easily anyway .
Labour have done nowt here in Gateshead apart from sending a leaflet with an incredibly unprofessional photo of the candidate that looks like its been taken with a potato and cropped from a photo of a board meeting.
Safe seats eh?
By contrast, Labour very visible in nearby Hexham. Town centre stalls, and at the County Show(!). Not that it will do them much good. Cons not seen at all, (as far as I am aware).
Many it depends on CLP local organisation?
Hexham ?! Lol that is madness for Labour to think they can get that.
Not sure they think they can get it. Just that there are many activists out and about here. Anecdotal I know.
Liz Kendall seems to be able to turn them out, even in the rain:
I like Liz - it's a shame she and the rest will be kowtowing to the Corbynites after June 8th as they realise the man and/or his message are so popular they can no longer try to wrestle control from his faction.
I am taking a wait and see line on what happens after 8th June. This has not been a predictable campaign (the final result aside) and I sense that the aftermath will not be entirely predictable either.
Ms. Apocalypse, worth noting there's a wide range of ages of PBers. I don't think Mr. Eagles is very old, which may explain why he hasn't been able to develop a mature understanding of classical history.
Dr. HQ, interesting. When I looked at this, briefly, at university, the rate was a quarter percent in the UK and 1% in the US.
Also, psychopaths tend to be successful and, generally, PBers are well above average when it comes to success.
Anyway, got to resume proofreading now. Play nicely, everyone.
The only PBers who I know who aren't *that* old are RobD, kle4 and yourself.
I thought everyone else was about 40+ at the very least.
I'm in my mid 30s*
*Well closer to 40 than 35
You are older than you have ever been before, and you will never be this young again!
If the youth vote is as fired up for Jeremy as some of the polling companies believe why are there so few tangible signs of it?
Where are the eager young corbynite canvassunlikely Why no deluge of Labourleaflets thrust from an army of young hands?
Either these millions of young Labour supporters are demonstrating a rectitude that would make a shy Tory maiden aunt look brazen or they are all talk and no action and most unlikely to turn out in anything like the numbers currently forecast.
The polls are flattering Labour.
Young Labour corbynite canvassers have been very active here in Worthing at both the CC elections and the GE . The one party that has done nothing here are the Conservatives but they will win easily anyway .
Labour have done nowt here in Gateshead apart from sending a leaflet with an incredibly unprofessional photo of the candidate that looks like its been taken with a potato and cropped from a photo of a board meeting.
Safe seats eh?
By contrast, Labour very visible in nearby Hexham. Town centre stalls, and at the County Show(!). Not that it will do them much good. Cons not seen at all, (as far as I am aware).
Many it depends on CLP local organisation?
Hexham ?! Lol that is madness for Labour to think they can get that.
Not sure they think they can get it. Just that there are many activists out and about here. Anecdotal I know.
Liz Kendall seems to be able to turn them out, even in the rain:
I like Liz - it's a shame she and the rest will be kowtowing to the Corbynites after June 8th as they realise the man and/or his message are so popular they can no longer try to wrestle control from his faction.
She seems to actually get on quite well with Corbyn, having seen them at the hustings together.
They obviously have political differences, but also much in common.
I think both right and left wingers will bury the hatchet shortly, realising that it is possible to out campaign the Tories.
These are the third party agreements that lapse in March 2019. On nuclear non-proliferation so power plants can continue operating (requires US Congressional approval), bilateral aviation agreements so our planes can fly internationally (seven important ones, I believe, including the US Will likely want to be renegotiated for the UK), product conformance, agriculture, trade, data regulation, customs. A lot of them require EU agreement to the renegotiation as well as the third party.
All in the capable hands of Liam Fox.
And some people say, no deal is better than a bad deal ..
If May wins the British people will have endorsed her position that no deal is better than a bad deal which keeps free movement intact and requires 100 billion euros of payments to the EU
She will certainly claim that mandate. But whether she can sustain it in the face of what it means in reality is another thing entirely, given that she has also said she will negotiate a Brexit deal that will improve standards of living. The British people are also voting for that, are they not?
No not really they took the choice that a slight drop in living standards was an acceptable price to pay to regain sovereignty and control immigration when they voted Leave, whether they still feel like that in a decade is another matter and then the single market may be on the cards again
Where in the Tory manifesto does it say that a slight drop in living standards is on offer?
The Remain campaign was nothing but a Leave vote would lead to a drop in living standards but the voters still voted Leave anyway
But this is a general election. It is the Tories that will be delivering Brexit and it is the Tories who have said that they will deliver one which improves living standards. Are they really going to say that they did not mean it?
The Tories have said they will deliver immigration control and sovereignty May has never said Brexit will boost our living standards just we can make it a success
Good luck with that!!
Just today she said Britain would be "more prosperous" afterwards
If the youth vote is as fired up for Jeremy as some of the polling companies believe why are there so few tangible signs of it?
Where are the eager young corbynite canvassunlikely Why no deluge of Labourleaflets thrust from an army of young hands?
Either these millions of young Labour supporters are demonstrating a rectitude that would make a shy Tory maiden aunt look brazen or they are all talk and no action and most unlikely to turn out in anything like the numbers currently forecast.
The polls are flattering Labour.
Young Labour corbynite canvassers have been very active here in Worthing at both the CC elections and the GE . The one party that has done nothing here are the Conservatives but they will win easily anyway .
Labour have done nowt here in Gateshead apart from sending a leaflet with an incredibly unprofessional photo of the candidate that looks like its been taken with a potato and cropped from a photo of a board meeting.
Safe seats eh?
By contrast, Labour very visible in nearby Hexham. Town centre stalls, and at the County Show(!). Not that it will do them much good. Cons not seen at all, (as far as I am aware).
Many it depends on CLP local organisation?
Hexham ?! Lol that is madness for Labour to think they can get that.
Not sure they think they can get it. Just that there are many activists out and about here. Anecdotal I know.
Liz Kendall seems to be able to turn them out, even in the rain:
I like Liz - it's a shame she and the rest will be kowtowing to the Corbynites after June 8th as they realise the man and/or his message are so popular they can no longer try to wrestle control from his faction.
She seems to actually get on quite well with Corbyn, having seen them at the hustings together.
They obviously have political differences, but also much in common.
I think both right and left wingers will bury the hatchet shortly, realising that it is possible to out campaign the Tories.
If Twitter is unrepresentative of the Labour Left/Right....yes
Is this stuff really cutting through? It ought to, but it's amazing how many people I speak to are indifferent or have the attitude that 'it was 20 years ago', as if Corbyn's past behaviour and words indicate nothing about how safe he'd keep the country today.
If the youth vote is as fired up for Jeremy as some of the polling companies believe why are there so few tangible signs of it?
Where are the eager young corbynite canvassunlikely Why no deluge of Labourleaflets thrust from an army of young hands?
Either these millions of young Labour supporters are demonstrating a rectitude that would make a shy Tory maiden aunt look brazen or they are all talk and no action and most unlikely to turn out in anything like the numbers currently forecast.
The polls are flattering Labour.
Young Labour corbynite canvassers have been very active here in Worthing at both the CC elections and the GE . The one party that has done nothing here are the Conservatives but they will win easily anyway .
Labour have done nowt here in Gateshead apart from sending a leaflet with an incredibly unprofessional photo of the candidate that looks like its been taken with a potato and cropped from a photo of a board meeting.
Safe seats eh?
By contrast, Labour very visible in nearby Hexham. Town centre stalls, and at the County Show(!). Not that it will do them much good. Cons not seen at all, (as far as I am aware).
Many it depends on CLP local organisation?
Hexham ?! Lol that is madness for Labour to think they can get that.
Not sure they think they can get it. Just that there are many activists out and about here. Anecdotal I know.
Liz Kendall seems to be able to turn them out, even in the rain:
I like Liz - it's a shame she and the rest will be kowtowing to the Corbynites after June 8th as they realise the man and/or his message are so popular they can no longer try to wrestle control from his faction.
She seems to actually get on quite well with Corbyn, having seen them at the hustings together.
They obviously have political differences, but also much in common.
I think both right and left wingers will bury the hatchet shortly, realising that it is possible to out campaign the Tories.
These are the third party agreements that lapse in March 2019. On nuclear non-proliferation so power plants can continue operating (requires US Congressional approval), bilateral aviation agreements so our planes can fly internationally (seven important ones, I believe, including the US Will likely want to be renegotiated for the UK), product conformance, agriculture, trade, data regulation, customs. A lot of them require EU agreement to the renegotiation as well as the third party.
All in the capable hands of Liam Fox.
And some people say, no deal is better than a bad deal ..
If May wins the British people will have endorsed her position that no deal is better than a bad deal which keeps free movement intact and requires 100 billion euros of payments to the EU
She will certainly claim that mandate. But whether she can sustain it in the face of what it means in reality is another thing entirely, given that she has also said she will negotiate a Brexit deal that will improve standards of living. The British people are also voting for that, are they not?
No not really they took the choice that a slight drop in living standards was an acceptable price to pay to regain sovereignty and control immigration when they voted Leave, whether they still feel like that in a decade is another matter and then the single market may be on the cards again
Where in the Tory manifesto does it say that a slight drop in living standards is on offer?
The Remain campaign was nothing but a Leave vote would lead to a drop in living standards but the voters still voted Leave anyway
But this is a general election. It is the Tories that will be delivering Brexit and it is the Tories who have said that they will deliver one which improves living standards. Are they really going to say that they did not mean it?
The Tories have said they will deliver immigration control and sovereignty May has never said Brexit will boost our living standards just we can make it a success
Good luck with that!!
Just today she said Britain would be "more prosperous" afterwards
She didn't mean it, clearly. Everyone who votes Tory is apparently voting explicitly for a slightly lower standard of living in return for more sovereignty and lower immigration.
I don't always agree with Liz Kendall, but the way she has been vilified by Corbynistas has been terrible. They really hate the idea of the Labour party being a board church.
Another one who they seem to truly *hate* is Laura K. I've never noticed anything wrong with her reports all in all, but according to Corbynistas that I know apparently, she's always biased against Corbyn....
I don't always agree with Liz Kendall, but the way she has been vilified by Corbynistas has been terrible. They really hate the idea of the Labour party being a board church.
Another one who they seem to truly *hate* is Laura K. I've never noticed anything wrong with her reports all in all, but according to Corbynistas that I know apparently, she's always biased against Corbyn....
Laura reports it as it is, and that is what they despise about her.
Brexit is expected to make us poorer than we would otherwise have been. But it's perfectly possible, indeed very likely unless things really get messed up, that we will end up richer than currently.
So I'm not sure there will be all that much economic fallout in general? In particular sectors there may well be.
If the youth vote is as fired up for Jeremy as some of the polling companies believe why are there so few tangible signs of it?
Where are the eager young corbynite canvassunlikely Why no deluge of Labourleaflets thrust from an army of young hands?
Either these millions of young Labour supporters are demonstrating a rectitude that would make a shy Tory maiden aunt look brazen or they are all talk and no action and most unlikely to turn out in anything like the numbers currently forecast.
The polls are flattering Labour.
Young Labour corbynite canvassers have been very active here in Worthing at both the CC elections and the GE . The one party that has done nothing here are the Conservatives but they will win easily anyway .
Labour have done nowt here in Gateshead apart from sending a leaflet with an incredibly unprofessional photo of the candidate that looks like its been taken with a potato and cropped from a photo of a board meeting.
Safe seats eh?
By contrast, Labour very visible in nearby Hexham. Town centre stalls, and at the County Show(!). Not that it will do them much good. Cons not seen at all, (as far as I am aware).
Many it depends on CLP local organisation?
Hexham ?! Lol that is madness for Labour to think they can get that.
Not sure they think they can get it. Just that there are many activists out and about here. Anecdotal I know.
Liz Kendall seems to be able to turn them out, even in the rain:
I like Liz - it's a shame she and the rest will be kowtowing to the Corbynites after June 8th as they realise the man and/or his message are so popular they can no longer try to wrestle control from his faction.
She seems to actually get on quite well with Corbyn, having seen them at the hustings together.
They obviously have political differences, but also much in common.
I think both right and left wingers will bury the hatchet shortly, realising that it is possible to out campaign the Tories.
There is certainly room for an accommodation if people want it. Left wing policies do not have to be alienating, you do not have to live in fear of the Tory press; but you do need a leader who comes with no baggage and an ability to do detail. The return to the two party system in England is hugely beneficial to Labour.
These are the third party agreements that lapse in March 2019. On nuclear non-proliferation so power plants can continue operating (requires US Congressional approval), bilateral aviation agreements so our planes can fly internationally (seven important ones, I believe, including the US Will likely want to be renegotiated for the UK), product conformance, agriculture, trade, data regulation, customs. A lot of them require EU agreement to the renegotiation as well as the third party.
All in the capable hands of Liam Fox.
And some people say, no deal is better than a bad deal ..
If May wins the British people will have endorsed her position that no deal is better than a bad deal which keeps free movement intact and requires 100 billion euros of payments to the EU
She will certainly claim that mandate. But whether she can sustain it in the face of what it means in reality is another thing entirely, given that she has also said she will negotiate a Brexit deal that will improve standards of living. The British people are also voting for that, are they not?
No not really they took the choice that a slight drop in living standards was an acceptable price to pay to regain sovereignty and control immigration when they voted Leave, whether they still feel like that in a decade is another matter and then the single market may be on the cards again
Where in the Tory manifesto does it say that a slight drop in living standards is on offer?
The Remain campaign was nothing but a Leave vote would lead to a drop in living standards but the voters still voted Leave anyway
But this is a general election. It is the Tories that will be delivering Brexit and it is the Tories who have said that they will deliver one which improves living standards. Are they really going to say that they did not mean it?
The Tories have said they will deliver immigration control and sovereignty May has never said Brexit will boost our living standards just we can make it a success
Good luck with that!!
Just today she said Britain would be "more prosperous" afterwards
I am sure it will. Eventually..... three or four generations later.....
I don't always agree with Liz Kendall, but the way she has been vilified by Corbynistas has been terrible. They really hate the idea of the Labour party being a board church.
Another one who they seem to truly *hate* is Laura K. I've never noticed anything wrong with her reports all in all, but according to Corbynistas that I know apparently, she's always biased against Corbyn....
According to the BBC Trust she is too
I saw that, but wasn't that only a single report? Out of all the ones she's done over the years?
Is this stuff really cutting through? It ought to, but it's amazing how many people I speak to are indifferent or have the attitude that 'it was 20 years ago', as if Corbyn's past behaviour and words indicate nothing about how safe he'd keep the country today.
It probably hits the mark in a few places such as the West Midlands and Warrington
Comments
The actual manifesto is pretty light on this, saying a review of council tax of which a land value tax would be an option.I've not seen much else written on it, so it doesn't seem like it has blown up yet.
EM Regional Lab Party pulling resources from NE Derbyshire implication being it is lost.
Ploughing it into Chesterfield instead.
My take is its the Progress Club who are only interested in getting the most Progress supporting MPs back.
Engel is crap but if resources are being diverted s/b to Derby North which I think is on a knife edge.
Toby increased maj in Chesterfield i reckon
If cabinet ministers are still being sent to places like Tynemouth and Bolsover, they are being sent for a reason.
UKIP->Lab swing seems definite, and is singled out by ICM as the most significant change. Tories still benefiting more from UKIP's collapse, but much less than before.
7% of Tories say their chance of actually voting Labour has increased - that's about 6% of the electorate, of course. 3% of Labour say the opposite (=1% of the electorate). That's probably a fair measure of the potential two-party swing vote still up for grabs.
There is some LD tactical voting on display. In LD seats under threat, 15% of voters say the campaign has made them more likely to vote LD, while 25% say less likely, but in Lab-Con mnarginals the figures are 9 and 19.
Corbyn is seen as running a better campaign than May by a small margin overall (+2 net vs -2_ but by a bigger margin in Lab-Con marginals (+7 vs -7). This may be because by definition those seats are slightly more Labour than otherwise, and relaly just suggests that targeting isn't having much effect. However, Labour is shown as 5 points ahead in both Lab marginals and Con marginals, which is exciting but they're small subsamples, so don't get carried away.
I'm sure nobody on PB comes from that 1%.
That is literally only a few years younger than me. Creepy. Twitter has been so annoying this GE. Yes, he'll unlock our potential when McMao crashes the economy.....not.
If Corbyn is going to cause a surprise and do it I would have thought they would say tonight rather than last minute - to cause May more embarrassment and in time to create publicity to get more people watching.
Dr. HQ, interesting. When I looked at this, briefly, at university, the rate was a quarter percent in the UK and 1% in the US.
Also, psychopaths tend to be successful and, generally, PBers are well above average when it comes to success.
Anyway, got to resume proofreading now. Play nicely, everyone.
Labour have enthused their well-off Remainerstan base. The affluent townhouses in the Labour ward, which had previously been decked out in Remain posters in the EU ref, were adorned with huge Labour boards. This is the ward of the Labour councillor who is the PPC.
Outside of this, **** all. Both Labour and Kippy Leave areas were devoid of signs completely. These places were not shy in the EU ref.
Tory Remainerstan had some Conservative boards sprinkled about, but it was notable the general the lack of enthusiasm.
Labour's Remainer core will turn out, but the nigh 40% of the Labour VI that are Leavers i'm not so sure. I'm not yet convinced turnout will be high, we'll see if things change next week.
Labour definitely "looked" stronger in the strong middle class remain (S11 of Sheff Central) and Totley of Hallam than round near my leave part of NED (Where Owls reckons they've given up)
I thought everyone else was about 40+ at the very least.
https://twitter.com/pr_bren1/status/869168153804275712
One Tory candidate from the region said he hadn’t seen anything of the wobble that the polls were talking about. He said: “I wouldn’t want to be anything other than a Tory in the West Midlands right now. She works better than Cameron here – the background, something about that I think. She’s a bit like Thatcher was in the West Midlands.”
https://www.channel4.com/news/by/gary-gibbon/blogs/may-conjures-image-of-corbyn-going-naked-into-negotiating-chamber
As to how much you can extrapolate? Dunno. UKIP has as much life as a Norwegian Blue, that I do know. (I noticed that in a polling report on Clegg's seat of Sheffield Hallam, UKIP had lost 95% of their 2015 vote.)
*Well closer to 40 than 35
Pathetic Tories dont bother costing any commitment
How much will Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher Policy raise??????????
After the site’s live webchat with the Labour leader finished, one user said he had “just responded to a few arse lick comments” while another branded the event “a piss take”.
It came just hours after Mr Corbyn endured an awkward BBC interview which saw him struggle to set out how much one of his key childcare policies would cost.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-mumsnet-webchat-avoid-tough-questions-fluffy-labour-leader-womans-hour-childcare-a7763406.html
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/869590303426191364
What will certainly be fun to behold, if Corbyn holds on, or is replaced by one of his allies, is the inevitable crossover in the polls as Brexit begins to bite. If 10-20% of the Tories' 50+ bulwark turn against May it'll make the next election very interesting.
Another one who they seem to truly *hate* is Laura K. I've never noticed anything wrong with her reports all in all, but according to Corbynistas that I know apparently, she's always biased against Corbyn....
*Innocent face*
Everytime leaders go on one of their 'webchats' it never seems to go right.
They obviously have political differences, but also much in common.
I think both right and left wingers will bury the hatchet shortly, realising that it is possible to out campaign the Tories.
If it is representative then no.
Scary to think I got addicted to this site 10 years ago...
But it's perfectly possible, indeed very likely unless things really get messed up, that we will end up richer than currently.
So I'm not sure there will be all that much economic fallout in general?
In particular sectors there may well be.
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