For what it's worth, their Twitter feeds show that Keir Starmer. Yvette Cooper and Chuka Umuna have been doing a lot of visits to Labour constituencies that are not their own. Read into that what you will.
If Yvette was doing visits to a London constituency that was her own it would be very odd! Edit - poops, sorry I misread what you wrote! I think Labour will gain in remainia London, but nowhere else. Yvette ought to be safe unless the wheels totally come off.
Will Labour do well in London when McDonnell has mentioned wealth taxes, garden taxes and higher income taxes for higher earners including moving an estimated 1 million people into the 40% bracket, which will hit London based people more harshly than elsewhere. I am not so sure Labour will do that well in Greater London as some suggest. I suspect that younger voters who move to London for a job will be the ones showing in the polls and they might not vote in the end.
Still not had anybody run out to throw my leaflet back at me, still not had anyone telling me to "fuck off!" I'm not used to it being this civil.....
Is that what usually happens? I've canvassed in places from Glasgow tenements to Sussex villages for 50 years, and neither of those events has ever happened to me! Torbay must be a jolly scary place.
You get it so easy, canvassing for Labour!
There are undoubtedly some rough bits of Torbay. A couple of tenement blocks on the road into Paignton that look straight out of the Gorbals. There's a surprising amount of old council estates and social housing. Much poorer than you might imagine. The days of Chanel having a shop in Torquay are long-distant memories.
Re kiddies for Corbyn. One other factor to consider aside form that of potential turnout is shy Toryism amongst the young. There is enormous peer pressure on social media to be radical and right on. It will factor into expressed VI. Free uni is a strong vote winner though.
I'm going to be on a ferry across the Irish Sea on election night and I'm doubtful whether Stena's wifi is up to the job of nimble betting. Still, it's all about priorities.
Still not had anybody run out to throw my leaflet back at me, still not had anyone telling me to "fuck off!" I'm not used to it being this civil.....
Is that what usually happens? I've canvassed in places from Glasgow tenements to Sussex villages for 50 years, and neither of those events has ever happened to me! Torbay must be a jolly scary place.
Leaflets being thrown back at you by someone running out their house? Oh yes. Usually several times each election.
I usually encounter at least one very angry or hectoring person as well, who also tries to sabotage your work with neighbours and passers by, but they are rare.
To be fair, I've had the same in the past when delivering non-political leaflets. I think some people sit alone, stewing in their own bile, and a leafletter is the perfect outlet.
So, who's looking forward to 10pm next Thursday night this time then?
You were worried by the prospect of an Ed Miliband gov't weren't you - must be utterly cacking it at the thought of Corbyn ! I know I am !
Yes, I was thoroughly crapping myself and extremely stressed. This might sound a bit pathetic, but as I drove me and my wife down to my friend's house in the New Forest, and saw the sun go down on the motorway, I thought to myself: "have I just seen the sun set on the last Conservative Government for decades?"
I wasn't great company at the start of the party. But I jumped out my skin out 10pm.
I was supremely relaxed about this election until 2 weeks ago. I am now stressed about this one too because that one manifesto move seemed to make such a difference.
Much relief in Tory circles at that ICM. The surge has peaked, it seems.
I reckon TMay will achieve a ten point lead or more, and with an extra boost in marginals and Scotland, and young people failing to turn out, as ever, she will win at a canter.
After all this huffing and puffing, fully a month later, maybe my original prediction of a 80-100 seat majority was quite accurate.
Too early to say but it looks more promising.
How does it look more promising ? the lead in ICM is down from 14 to 12 , sure it is higher than other pollsters but the trend is still all one way to a narrowing poll lead .
You are correct - however ICM turnout weighting is similar to ComRes which had a lead of 12.
So most sensible to look at the two combined for overall picture (of position using this weighting):
24/26 May - ICM +14, ComRes +12
26/29 May - ICM +12, no ComRes
So whilst ICM lead is down, it's only marginal and it's in line with the ComRes providing reassurance that IF THIS WEIGHTING IS CORRECT then the overall position is broadly stable.
Were these polls undertaken before or after Woman's Hour?
I'm going to be on a ferry across the Irish Sea on election night and I'm doubtful whether Stena's wifi is up to the job of nimble betting. Still, it's all about priorities.
I'm in Reykjavik awaiting the early morning flight home...
Least Angus Robertson is also there. So Amber Rudd won't look too out the ordinary.
In fact a good portion of the viewers will probably think she IS the leader !
The fact that she's been sent suggests that she's the effective Deputy.
Possible Chancellor in less than a fortnight.
Possible, but FS in less than a fortnight more possible?
I still can't get away from the thought that Gove is going to make a comeback - and in a high ranking position.
Gove to replace Boris? That'd do wonders for their already iffy relationship. Might be a good move though. Boris to Party Chairman.
Once the Brexit stuff begins it would be very wise to keep Boris away from the Foreign Office. He is genuinely a figure of scorn and derision in Europe, and further afield. He does the UK's cause no good at all. Gove would be a lot better. He is polite, civil and constructive, while having all the Leave credentials necessary. Boris's time must surely be done.
You have a point, but Boris is a bit too senior and well-liked to be dumped, tho.
So where to put him if not Foreign Sec?
I'd make him Deputy Prime Minister like Clegg, AND Cabinet Minister for something-or-other.
Culture media and sport. Demotion, but dpm might salve his ego.
These are the third party agreements that lapse in March 2019. On nuclear non-proliferation so power plants can continue operating (requires US Congressional approval), bilateral aviation agreements so our planes can fly internationally (seven important ones, I believe, including the US Will likely want to be renegotiated for the UK), product conformance, agriculture, trade, data regulation, customs. A lot of them require EU agreement to the renegotiation as well as the third party.
All in the capable hands of Liam Fox.
And some people say, no deal is better than a bad deal ..
Just noticed on the main header graphic, the Tories have put on a net 2% over Labour in May.
During the Disastrous Conservative Manifesto Launch of 2017 that was supposed to have had the blue-rinsed oldies sticking pins in voodoo dolls of Theresa May.
Still not had anybody run out to throw my leaflet back at me, still not had anyone telling me to "fuck off!" I'm not used to it being this civil.....
Is that what usually happens? I've canvassed in places from Glasgow tenements to Sussex villages for 50 years, and neither of those events has ever happened to me! Torbay must be a jolly scary place.
Leaflets being thrown back at you by someone running out their house? Oh yes. Usually several times each election.
I usually encounter at least one very angry or hectoring person as well, who also tries to sabotage your work with neighbours and passers by, but they are rare.
To be fair, I've had the same in the past when delivering non-political leaflets. I think some people sit alone, stewing in their own bile, and a leafletter is the perfect outlet.
I had one guy put his son outside his door, to try and stop me delivering the leaflet, which didn't click with me at the time, and I just said "excuse me, sorry mate", and I just dodged past him to post it.
Then he theatrically pushed the leaflet back out his own letterbox about ten seconds later, all scrunched up, littering his own front porch in doing so but did nothing to pick it up (I was about two homes down the road by then, as I work fast) and his son was laughing at me, with the father swearing - I presume, he said something, although I couldn't quite hear what it was.
I was shocked, but shrugged it off and carried on.
Some people are just quite angry and resentful in general, and looking for a target.
Possibly the very worst result possible for Labour. The Tories get their increased majority but the Corbynites point to him increasing their share of the vote and use it as an excuse to stay on. Bad for both Labour and the country.
Unless the Lab "surge" represents people seeing Jezza, Macca and Diane and liking what they see. 30%+ of the electorate like the fact that Lab is heading leftwards. What is bad for Lab about that?
Mainstream centrist Lab MP or supporter? Fine - go and found your own party.
It is bad because it ensures Labour will spend another 5 years failing to challenge as a serious opposition and will need to lose at least another election before it can start to rebuild. That is bad for the country as we continue with no effective Parliamentary scrutiny of the Government.
If the youth vote is as fired up for Jeremy as some of the polling companies believe why are there so few tangible signs of it?
Where are the eager young corbynite canvassunlikely Why no deluge of Labourleaflets thrust from an army of young hands?
Either these millions of young Labour supporters are demonstrating a rectitude that would make a shy Tory maiden aunt look brazen or they are all talk and no action and most unlikely to turn out in anything like the numbers currently forecast.
Been looking at the local election results again and it seems that Labour was picking up about 10% of the UKIP vote where the latter didn't stand compared to previously, ie. they were getting around an extra 2% if UKIP had previously been on 20%. Might explain why the Labour vote is slightly up in the polls compared to GE2015. The vast majority went to the Tories and a bit to the LDs.
If this were the result then surely Lib Dems would lose seats?
Yes, it would be difficult for them to avoid losing seats.
The Lib Dems are down at such levels that their seat:vote relationship is quite weak. So much depends on localities bucking the trend. I could still see them ending the night anywhere between 3-20 at the extremes but think 8-10 is pretty much par.
Suggests that the Facebook barrage against Corbyn and Abbott has had no effect, or alternatively that it's countering effects that would otherwise have narrowed the lead more. I'd guess the former - people who care what they said 40 years ago have already factored it in.
Although Martin Boon doesn't say it explicitly, this presumably has the same feature as the last ICM that it is about 8 points better for the Tory lead than if the assumptions of other polling institutes are made (essentially ICM assume that voting patterns are like last time, while others take assertions of certainty to vote at face value). So if the 14-point lead was "very close" (Martin last week) to the 5-point lead on that basis, presumably this is close to a 3-point lead. What evidence we have (unusually high registration among the young, anecdotal reports) suggests that something is happening, but Boon is convincing on it not being the whole story. Perhaps we should split the difference and guess at a less of 7-8.
Wasn't the polling done 26 to 29 May 2017, so that's hardly 'changes since the weekend' ? If that's the case, then surely a bit early to be making solid judgments.
Sorry, don't understand. Where do you see me refer to the weekend? I was referring to the absence of a pro-Tory shift during the period of Facebook barrage, as anticipated by SeanT and others.
It's possible that the barrrage merely strengthens certainty to vote, of course, but that's not all that was predicted here. It's interesting beyond the current election, since pros of all parties want to know whether FB barrages actually work.
It's in the post to which you replied. And when was that 'barrage' - over the last few days, so it is indeed a little early to detect a large shift in the polls (or absence thereof).
Possibly the very worst result possible for Labour. The Tories get their increased majority but the Corbynites point to him increasing their share of the vote and use it as an excuse to stay on. Bad for both Labour and the country.
Unless the Lab "surge" represents people seeing Jezza, Macca and Diane and liking what they see. 30%+ of the electorate like the fact that Lab is heading leftwards. What is bad for Lab about that?
Mainstream centrist Lab MP or supporter? Fine - go and found your own party.
It is bad because it ensures Labour will spend another 5 years failing to challenge as a serious opposition and will need to lose at least another election before it can start to rebuild. That is bad for the country as we continue with no effective Parliamentary scrutiny of the Government.
It will be fine if they head left but get in leaders with less baggage and more parliamentary ability, meaning they can challenge effectively. That's the main problem with the surge, it keeps the leaders in place.
These are the third party agreements that lapse in March 2019. On nuclear non-proliferation so power plants can continue operating (requires US Congressional approval), bilateral aviation agreements so our planes can fly internationally (seven important ones, I believe, including the US Will likely want to be renegotiated for the UK), product conformance, agriculture, trade, data regulation, customs. A lot of them require EU agreement to the renegotiation as well as the third party.
All in the capable hands of Liam Fox.
And some people say, no deal is better than a bad deal ..
Your comment makes no sense. Those agreements have to be renegotiated or some other arrangement put in place irrespective of whether there is a deal with EU. It's a nightmare, of course, but has zilch to do with the negotiation with the EU.
If this were the result then surely Lib Dems would lose seats?
Yes, it would be difficult for them to avoid losing seats.
The Lib Dems are down at such levels that their seat:vote relationship is quite weak. So much depends on localities bucking the trend. I could still see them ending the night anywhere between 3-20 at the extremes but think 8-10 is pretty much par.
Sounds reasonable. Given the tory share is up and theirs is static, net no change woukd be a result
I'm feeling that we are at peak labour. not saying it will go down a lot, just this is their high water mark. have backed the 25-30% vote share at 3's.
If the youth vote is as fired up for Jeremy as some of the polling companies believe why are there so few tangible signs of it?
Where are the eager young corbynite canvassunlikely Why no deluge of Labourleaflets thrust from an army of young hands?
Either these millions of young Labour supporters are demonstrating a rectitude that would make a shy Tory maiden aunt look brazen or they are all talk and no action and most unlikely to turn out in anything like the numbers currently forecast.
The polls are flattering Labour.
Young Labour corbynite canvassers have been very active here in Worthing at both the CC elections and the GE . The one party that has done nothing here are the Conservatives but they will win easily anyway .
I'm feeling that we are at peak labour. not saying it will go down a lot, just this is their high water mark. have backed the 25-30% vote share at 3's.
Apparently the recent Survation poll was based on 82% of 18-24 year olds turning out to vote. Just 44% did in 2015.
I honestly cannot recall an election campaign where the Chancellor of the Exchequer has been so invisible. When economic competence is a key advantage (according to the polling) it really is extraordinary. Are the Tories planning to go big on the economy in the last week and wanted to hold him back? Or is he just toast?
Hammond is being hidden to avoid questions about putting up taxes. He tried it in the budget, and this time round the Conservatives have dropped the no tax rise pledge.
Even by the standards of this campaign that would be incredibly stupid. The Tories should be clear that they will do whatever is necessary to help the economy and protect public services. That message should come from the Chancellor as the money man with a grip on the figures. It would also put the spotlight on McMao which cannot be a bad thing for the Tories. It is probably the most favourable comparator available, even more than the leader.
Hiding the Chancellor is fighting with a hand tied behind your back.
It is not just the Chancellor. Where's Jeremy Hunt? Damian Green was about but seems to have taken the last week off. I cannot remember a campaign like this where half the Cabinet's missing in action.
Its really weird. Hunt was very effective in 2015 and stood in for Cameron on occasions. Ah, maybe I see the problem now...
These are the third party agreements that lapse in March 2019. On nuclear non-proliferation so power plants can continue operating (requires US Congressional approval), bilateral aviation agreements so our planes can fly internationally (seven important ones, I believe, including the US Will likely want to be renegotiated for the UK), product conformance, agriculture, trade, data regulation, customs. A lot of them require EU agreement to the renegotiation as well as the third party.
All in the capable hands of Liam Fox.
And some people say, no deal is better than a bad deal ..
Your comment makes no sense. Those agreements have to be renegotiated or some other arrangement put in place irrespective of whether there is a deal with EU. It's a nightmare, of course, but has zilch to do with the negotiation with the EU.
It does because the only sensible way of dealing with all this stuff is to try to continue the arrangements that involve the EU, which requires the EU to go along with it. Apart from the fact there is a separate and all consuming negotiation bilateral negotiation happening with the EU. It makes sense to keep that one as simple as possible too.
Much relief in Tory circles at that ICM. The surge has peaked, it seems.
I reckon TMay will achieve a ten point lead or more, and with an extra boost in marginals and Scotland, and young people failing to turn out, as ever, she will win at a canter.
After all this huffing and puffing, fully a month later, maybe my original prediction of a 80-100 seat majority was quite accurate.
Too early to say but it looks more promising.
How does it look more promising ? the lead in ICM is down from 14 to 12 , sure it is higher than other pollsters but the trend is still all one way to a narrowing poll lead .
You are correct - however ICM turnout weighting is similar to ComRes which had a lead of 12.
So most sensible to look at the two combined for overall picture (of position using this weighting):
24/26 May - ICM +14, ComRes +12
26/29 May - ICM +12, no ComRes
So whilst ICM lead is down, it's only marginal and it's in line with the ComRes providing reassurance that IF THIS WEIGHTING IS CORRECT then the overall position is broadly stable.
A 12% lead is about the same as Thatcher managed in 1987, or Blair managed in 1997.
And a 5-7% lead is only half what Thatcher and Blair managed . Which is correct ? That is the crux .
Blair had a 3% lead in 2005 and got a majority over 60
If the youth vote is as fired up for Jeremy as some of the polling companies believe why are there so few tangible signs of it?
Where are the eager young corbynite canvassunlikely Why no deluge of Labourleaflets thrust from an army of young hands?
Either these millions of young Labour supporters are demonstrating a rectitude that would make a shy Tory maiden aunt look brazen or they are all talk and no action and most unlikely to turn out in anything like the numbers currently forecast.
The polls are flattering Labour.
Young Labour corbynite canvassers have been very active here in Worthing at both the CC elections and the GE . The one party that has done nothing here are the Conservatives but they will win easily anyway .
Didn't one of the young Wedgie Benn s stand down there Mark? Are they standing again?
If the youth vote is as fired up for Jeremy as some of the polling companies believe why are there so few tangible signs of it?
Where are the eager young corbynite canvassunlikely Why no deluge of Labourleaflets thrust from an army of young hands?
Either these millions of young Labour supporters are demonstrating a rectitude that would make a shy Tory maiden aunt look brazen or they are all talk and no action and most unlikely to turn out in anything like the numbers currently forecast.
The polls are flattering Labour.
Young Labour corbynite canvassers have been very active here in Worthing at both the CC elections and the GE . The one party that has done nothing here are the Conservatives but they will win easily anyway .
Labour have done nowt here in Gateshead apart from sending a leaflet with an incredibly unprofessional photo of the candidate that looks like its been taken with a potato and cropped from a photo of a board meeting.
If the youth vote is as fired up for Jeremy as some of the polling companies believe why are there so few tangible signs of it?
Where are the eager young corbynite canvassunlikely Why no deluge of Labourleaflets thrust from an army of young hands?
Either these millions of young Labour supporters are demonstrating a rectitude that would make a shy Tory maiden aunt look brazen or they are all talk and no action and most unlikely to turn out in anything like the numbers currently forecast.
The polls are flattering Labour.
When I was a mature student (how embarrassing those words are to type!) at Brighton Uni in 2010, the staff were v fired up over tuition fees, ostensibly because of the lack of morality in charging for an education ( although we overheard a senior lecturer in the pub saying "what if numbers go down? I've got a mortgage to pay!)
The kids decided to do something about it, and staged a week long sit in... not outside the Lib Dem constituency office or the Conservative Club, but... in the common room! When I asked one of the lads what difference he thought that was going to make as no one of any relevance would even notice, he just said he'd shagged 4 birds there that week!
Possibly the very worst result possible for Labour. The Tories get their increased majority but the Corbynites point to him increasing their share of the vote and use it as an excuse to stay on. Bad for both Labour and the country.
Unless the Lab "surge" represents people seeing Jezza, Macca and Diane and liking what they see. 30%+ of the electorate like the fact that Lab is heading leftwards. What is bad for Lab about that?
Well, the fact that they'll never get elected on that platform should give them pause for thought.
These are the third party agreements that lapse in March 2019. On nuclear non-proliferation so power plants can continue operating (requires US Congressional approval), bilateral aviation agreements so our planes can fly internationally (seven important ones, I believe, including the US Will likely want to be renegotiated for the UK), product conformance, agriculture, trade, data regulation, customs. A lot of them require EU agreement to the renegotiation as well as the third party.
All in the capable hands of Liam Fox.
And some people say, no deal is better than a bad deal ..
If May wins the British people will have endorsed her position that no deal is better than a bad deal which keeps free movement intact and requires 100 billion euros of payments to the EU
I'm feeling that we are at peak labour. not saying it will go down a lot, just this is their high water mark. have backed the 25-30% vote share at 3's.
Apparently the recent Survation poll was based on 82% of 18-24 year olds turning out to vote. Just 44% did in 2015.
thanks. and i think the quoted poll shares are GB only so you can knock off about 1.5% for when NI is included. i'm sure this is the figure the bookies use for their settling.
Just noticed on the main header graphic, the Tories have put on a net 2% over Labour in May.
During the Disastrous Conservative Manifesto Launch of 2017 that was supposed to have had the blue-rinsed oldies sticking pins in voodoo dolls of Theresa May.
Possibly the very worst result possible for Labour. The Tories get their increased majority but the Corbynites point to him increasing their share of the vote and use it as an excuse to stay on. Bad for both Labour and the country.
Unless the Lab "surge" represents people seeing Jezza, Macca and Diane and liking what they see. 30%+ of the electorate like the fact that Lab is heading leftwards. What is bad for Lab about that?
Mainstream centrist Lab MP or supporter? Fine - go and found your own party.
It is bad because it ensures Labour will spend another 5 years failing to challenge as a serious opposition and will need to lose at least another election before it can start to rebuild. That is bad for the country as we continue with no effective Parliamentary scrutiny of the Government.
Given what is coming down the line after the election, Labour can go away to grieve and fight in semi private. No-one is going to take much notice. If the party has scored low to mid 30s it has established quite a high floor and shown that a left wing message can resonate - but that to really cross over it needs to come from someone with no baggage and the ability to sustain policy-based arguments. In other words, there is room for compromise on all sides. If Brexit goes well, it does not matter what Labour does, the Tories will win the next election with ease. If it doesn't, on the other hand, Labour has a significant opportunity in 21/22.
Just noticed on the main header graphic, the Tories have put on a net 2% over Labour in May.
During the Disastrous Conservative Manifesto Launch of 2017 that was supposed to have had the blue-rinsed oldies sticking pins in voodoo dolls of Theresa May.
Possibly the very worst result possible for Labour. The Tories get their increased majority but the Corbynites point to him increasing their share of the vote and use it as an excuse to stay on. Bad for both Labour and the country.
Unless the Lab "surge" represents people seeing Jezza, Macca and Diane and liking what they see. 30%+ of the electorate like the fact that Lab is heading leftwards. What is bad for Lab about that?
Well, the fact that they'll never get elected on that platform should give them pause for thought.
Winning elections is a dangerously tory activity. See Tony Blair.
I'm feeling that we are at peak labour. not saying it will go down a lot, just this is their high water mark. have backed the 25-30% vote share at 3's.
Apparently the recent Survation poll was based on 82% of 18-24 year olds turning out to vote. Just 44% did in 2015.
And it is based on 88% of 65 plus year olds voting .
Much relief in Tory circles at that ICM. The surge has peaked, it seems.
I reckon TMay will achieve a ten point lead or more, and with an extra boost in marginals and Scotland, and young people failing to turn out, as ever, she will win at a canter.
After all this huffing and puffing, fully a month later, maybe my original prediction of a 80-100 seat majority was quite accurate.
Too early to say but it looks more promising.
How does it look more promising ? the lead in ICM is down from 14 to 12 , sure it is higher than other pollsters but the trend is still all one way to a narrowing poll lead .
You are correct - however ICM turnout weighting is similar to ComRes which had a lead of 12.
So most sensible to look at the two combined for overall picture (of position using this weighting):
24/26 May - ICM +14, ComRes +12
26/29 May - ICM +12, no ComRes
So whilst ICM lead is down, it's only marginal and it's in line with the ComRes providing reassurance that IF THIS WEIGHTING IS CORRECT then the overall position is broadly stable.
A 12% lead is about the same as Thatcher managed in 1987, or Blair managed in 1997.
And a 5-7% lead is only half what Thatcher and Blair managed . Which is correct ? That is the crux .
Blair had a 3% lead in 2005 and got a majority over 60
Yes, he had a three percent lead but he also had approximately 410 seats he was defending from the 2001 election. That is an awful lot of incumbency, which is worth several thousand votes. The Tories were never going to win in 2005 as they had to gain well over 100 seats, indeed this is the same reason Cameron only got 306 in 2010. A political party can only target about 70 seats in an election. You get exception years like 1997 or 2010, where the gains are bigger or in 1997 massive but usually an election does not see more than 70 seats going from Labour to Tory or vice versa.
Possibly the very worst result possible for Labour. The Tories get their increased majority but the Corbynites point to him increasing their share of the vote and use it as an excuse to stay on. Bad for both Labour and the country.
Unless the Lab "surge" represents people seeing Jezza, Macca and Diane and liking what they see. 30%+ of the electorate like the fact that Lab is heading leftwards. What is bad for Lab about that?
Well, the fact that they'll never get elected on that platform should give them pause for thought.
Horrendously complacenet - Lewis in charge, severe lack of housebuilding + car crash Brexit will mean traditional Labour support will return. That + enthused youth vote = JOB DONE. The future looks positively rosy long term for Labour to me.
So, who's looking forward to 10pm next Thursday night this time then?
Can't beat an election night. Those final seconds before they release the exit poll are always pretty exciting...
...BONG!! "We are forecasting a.."
Me and Mrs S both sat there in 2015 going "fuck, fuck, fuck" - except I was laughing my head off, she was shaking hers in dismay.
Same again next week please - though we'll be in the Italian lakes this time not on the sofa at home. Hopefully there'll be BBC World and Sky News on the telly and solid wifi....
Much relief in Tory circles at that ICM. The surge has peaked, it seems.
I reckon TMay will achieve a ten point lead or more, and with an extra boost in marginals and Scotland, and young people failing to turn out, as ever, she will win at a canter.
After all this huffing and puffing, fully a month later, maybe my original prediction of a 80-100 seat majority was quite accurate.
It was always going to be that way. The panic on here from some was surreal.
I LIKE panicking. I'm an ex drug addict. I love the rush of emotions and hormones. Panicking at YouGov polls is heroin for the over-50s.
Of course, regular fit exercise, with occasional intense intervals, can calm, and encourages collateral circulation as an added benefit.
Possibly the very worst result possible for Labour. The Tories get their increased majority but the Corbynites point to him increasing their share of the vote and use it as an excuse to stay on. Bad for both Labour and the country.
Unless the Lab "surge" represents people seeing Jezza, Macca and Diane and liking what they see. 30%+ of the electorate like the fact that Lab is heading leftwards. What is bad for Lab about that?
Mainstream centrist Lab MP or supporter? Fine - go and found your own party.
It is bad because it ensures Labour will spend another 5 years failing to challenge as a serious opposition and will need to lose at least another election before it can start to rebuild. That is bad for the country as we continue with no effective Parliamentary scrutiny of the Government.
Given what is coming down the line after the election, Labour can go away to grieve and fight in semi private. No-one is going to take much notice. If the party has scored low to mid 30s it has established quite a high floor and shown that a left wing message can resonate - but that to really cross over it needs to come from someone with no baggage and the ability to sustain policy-based arguments. In other words, there is room for compromise on all sides. If Brexit goes well, it does not matter what Labour does, the Tories will win the next election with ease. If it doesn't, on the other hand, Labour has a significant opportunity in 21/22.
The Tories were marooned in the low 30s between 1997 and 2007. I'm not sure whether it would have been better for them to have gone sub-30% in 1997 if that might have led to faster changes.
I'm feeling that we are at peak labour. not saying it will go down a lot, just this is their high water mark. have backed the 25-30% vote share at 3's.
Apparently the recent Survation poll was based on 82% of 18-24 year olds turning out to vote. Just 44% did in 2015.
And it is based on 88% of 65 plus year olds voting .
Which is too high, but not to the same degree, unless the behaviour really will be massively different.
Possibly the very worst result possible for Labour. The Tories get their increased majority but the Corbynites point to him increasing their share of the vote and use it as an excuse to stay on. Bad for both Labour and the country.
Unless the Lab "surge" represents people seeing Jezza, Macca and Diane and liking what they see. 30%+ of the electorate like the fact that Lab is heading leftwards. What is bad for Lab about that?
Mainstream centrist Lab MP or supporter? Fine - go and found your own party.
It is bad because it ensures Labour will spend another 5 years failing to challenge as a serious opposition and will need to lose at least another election before it can start to rebuild. That is bad for the country as we continue with no effective Parliamentary scrutiny of the Government.
30% is only one final push to get to government. Those 30% are either holding their noses or like what they see (you can't say people are unaware of what Jezza stands for).
So they don't need to rebuild they just need more time to spread the word.
If the youth vote is as fired up for Jeremy as some of the polling companies believe why are there so few tangible signs of it?
Where are the eager young corbynite canvassunlikely Why no deluge of Labourleaflets thrust from an army of young hands?
Either these millions of young Labour supporters are demonstrating a rectitude that would make a shy Tory maiden aunt look brazen or they are all talk and no action and most unlikely to turn out in anything like the numbers currently forecast.
The polls are flattering Labour.
When I was a mature student (how embarrassing those words are to type!) at Brighton Uni in 2010, the staff were v fired up over tuition fees, ostensibly because of the lack of morality in charging for an education ( although we overheard a senior lecturer in the pub saying "what if numbers go down? I've got a mortgage to pay!)
The kids decided to do something about it, and staged a week long sit in... not outside the Lib Dem constituency office or the Conservative Club, but... in the common room! When I asked one of the lads what difference he thought that was going to make as no one of any relevance would even notice, he just said he'd shagged 4 birds there that week!
Maybe thats what they are all up to now (with Sean and TSE ) with the more ambitious working on Mark Senior.
These are the third party agreements that lapse in March 2019. On nuclear non-proliferation so power plants can continue operating (requires US Congressional approval), bilateral aviation agreements so our planes can fly internationally (seven important ones, I believe, including the US Will likely want to be renegotiated for the UK), product conformance, agriculture, trade, data regulation, customs. A lot of them require EU agreement to the renegotiation as well as the third party.
All in the capable hands of Liam Fox.
And some people say, no deal is better than a bad deal ..
If May wins the British people will have endorsed her position that no deal is better than a bad deal which keeps free movement intact and requires 100 billion euros of payments to the EU
She will certainly claim that mandate. But whether she can sustain it in the face of what it means in reality is another thing entirely, given that she has also said she will negotiate a Brexit deal that will improve standards of living. The British people are also voting for that, are they not?
I'm feeling that we are at peak labour. not saying it will go down a lot, just this is their high water mark. have backed the 25-30% vote share at 3's.
Apparently the recent Survation poll was based on 82% of 18-24 year olds turning out to vote. Just 44% did in 2015.
And it is based on 88% of 65 plus year olds voting .
If the youth vote is as fired up for Jeremy as some of the polling companies believe why are there so few tangible signs of it?
Where are the eager young corbynite canvassunlikely Why no deluge of Labourleaflets thrust from an army of young hands?
Either these millions of young Labour supporters are demonstrating a rectitude that would make a shy Tory maiden aunt look brazen or they are all talk and no action and most unlikely to turn out in anything like the numbers currently forecast.
The polls are flattering Labour.
Young Labour corbynite canvassers have been very active here in Worthing at both the CC elections and the GE . The one party that has done nothing here are the Conservatives but they will win easily anyway .
Labour- putting in effort and putting on votes where it does them bugger all good?
If the youth vote is as fired up for Jeremy as some of the polling companies believe why are there so few tangible signs of it?
Where are the eager young corbynite canvassunlikely Why no deluge of Labourleaflets thrust from an army of young hands?
Either these millions of young Labour supporters are demonstrating a rectitude that would make a shy Tory maiden aunt look brazen or they are all talk and no action and most unlikely to turn out in anything like the numbers currently forecast.
The polls are flattering Labour.
Young Labour corbynite canvassers have been very active here in Worthing at both the CC elections and the GE . The one party that has done nothing here are the Conservatives but they will win easily anyway .
Labour- putting in effort and putting on votes where it does them bugger all good?
Labour activists would be more useful in Southampton Test, Hove, and Brighton Kemptown.
Possibly the very worst result possible for Labour. The Tories get their increased majority but the Corbynites point to him increasing their share of the vote and use it as an excuse to stay on. Bad for both Labour and the country.
Unless the Lab "surge" represents people seeing Jezza, Macca and Diane and liking what they see. 30%+ of the electorate like the fact that Lab is heading leftwards. What is bad for Lab about that?
Mainstream centrist Lab MP or supporter? Fine - go and found your own party.
It is bad because it ensures Labour will spend another 5 years failing to challenge as a serious opposition and will need to lose at least another election before it can start to rebuild. That is bad for the country as we continue with no effective Parliamentary scrutiny of the Government.
Given what is coming down the line after the election, Labour can go away to grieve and fight in semi private. No-one is going to take much notice. If the party has scored low to mid 30s it has established quite a high floor and shown that a left wing message can resonate - but that to really cross over it needs to come from someone with no baggage and the ability to sustain policy-based arguments. In other words, there is room for compromise on all sides. If Brexit goes well, it does not matter what Labour does, the Tories will win the next election with ease. If it doesn't, on the other hand, Labour has a significant opportunity in 21/22.
The Tories were marooned in the low 30s between 1997 and 2007. I'm not sure whether it would have been better for them to have gone sub-30% in 1997 if that might have led to faster changes.
England and much of Wales is back to a two party system now, though. I suspect that will make a big difference to how votes work in future.
So, who's looking forward to 10pm next Thursday night this time then?
You were worried by the prospect of an Ed Miliband gov't weren't you - must be utterly cacking it at the thought of Corbyn ! I know I am !
Yes, I was thoroughly crapping myself and extremely stressed. This might sound a bit pathetic, but as I drove me and my wife down to my friend's house in the New Forest, and saw the sun go down on the motorway, I thought to myself: "have I just seen the sun set on the last Conservative Government for decades?"
I wasn't great company at the start of the party. But I jumped out my skin out 10pm.
I was supremely relaxed about this election until 2 weeks ago. I am now stressed about this one too because that one manifesto move seemed to make such a difference.
Not much margin for error left.
It won't even be close IMO.
100 seat majority, 10 to 12 points clear; 46/34, something like that.
I'm feeling that we are at peak labour. not saying it will go down a lot, just this is their high water mark. have backed the 25-30% vote share at 3's.
Apparently the recent Survation poll was based on 82% of 18-24 year olds turning out to vote. Just 44% did in 2015.
And it is based on 88% of 65 plus year olds voting .
That's a bit high. Around 80% would be more likely.
These are the third party agreements that lapse in March 2019. On nuclear non-proliferation so power plants can continue operating (requires US Congressional approval), bilateral aviation agreements so our planes can fly internationally (seven important ones, I believe, including the US Will likely want to be renegotiated for the UK), product conformance, agriculture, trade, data regulation, customs. A lot of them require EU agreement to the renegotiation as well as the third party.
All in the capable hands of Liam Fox.
And some people say, no deal is better than a bad deal ..
If May wins the British people will have endorsed her position that no deal is better than a bad deal which keeps free movement intact and requires 100 billion euros of payments to the EU
She will certainly claim that mandate. But whether she can sustain it in the face of what it means in reality is another thing entirely, given that she has also said she will negotiate a Brexit deal that will improve standards of living. The British people are also voting for that, are they not?
No not really they took the choice that a slight drop in living standards was an acceptable price to pay to regain sovereignty and control immigration when they voted Leave, whether they still feel like that in a decade is another matter and then the single market may be on the cards again
I'm feeling that we are at peak labour. not saying it will go down a lot, just this is their high water mark. have backed the 25-30% vote share at 3's.
Apparently the recent Survation poll was based on 82% of 18-24 year olds turning out to vote. Just 44% did in 2015.
And it is based on 88% of 65 plus year olds voting .
Which is too high, but not to the same degree, unless the behaviour really will be massively different.
Or Corbyn and McDonnell and Abbot REALLY spook the oldies!
These are the third party agreements that lapse in March 2019. On nuclear non-proliferation so power plants can continue operating (requires US Congressional approval), bilateral aviation agreements so our planes can fly internationally (seven important ones, I believe, including the US Will likely want to be renegotiated for the UK), product conformance, agriculture, trade, data regulation, customs. A lot of them require EU agreement to the renegotiation as well as the third party.
All in the capable hands of Liam Fox.
And some people say, no deal is better than a bad deal ..
If May wins the British people will have endorsed her position that no deal is better than a bad deal which keeps free movement intact and requires 100 billion euros of payments to the EU
She will certainly claim that mandate. But whether she can sustain it in the face of what it means in reality is another thing entirely, given that she has also said she will negotiate a Brexit deal that will improve standards of living. The British people are also voting for that, are they not?
No not really they took the choice that a slight drop in living standards was an acceptable price to pay to regain sovereignty and control immigration when they voted Leave, whether they still feel like that in a decade is another matter and then the single market may be on the cards again
Where in the Tory manifesto does it say that a slight drop in living standards is on offer?
If Corbyn increases the labour voting share, but not enough to get anywhere near power, the biggest losers will be the Labour moderates. They'll have no chance of 'regaining' control from the Corbynites.
I'm feeling that we are at peak labour. not saying it will go down a lot, just this is their high water mark. have backed the 25-30% vote share at 3's.
Apparently the recent Survation poll was based on 82% of 18-24 year olds turning out to vote. Just 44% did in 2015.
And it is based on 88% of 65 plus year olds voting .
Which is too high, but not to the same degree, unless the behaviour really will be massively different.
Or Corbyn and McDonnell and Abbot REALLY spook the oldies!
I am not yet an oldie - but they certainly spook me. McDonnell and Abbott more than Corbyn to be fair - but as a threesome they are petrifying.
Re kiddies for Corbyn. One other factor to consider aside form that of potential turnout is shy Toryism amongst the young. There is enormous peer pressure on social media to be radical and right on. It will factor into expressed VI. Free uni is a strong vote winner though.
My anecdata suggests an element of that - the 6th form students who see themselves as most politically engaged talk up Corbyn (loudly), but it produces a reaction of at least equal numbers, who are either put off by their idealistic and patronising peers, or have sufficient nous to see such ideas as pie in the sky. Whilst the former may be more likely to vote and engage in twitter campaigning, I wouldn't see it as all one-way traffic.
If Corbyn increases the labour voting share, but not enough to get anywhere near power, the biggest losers will be the Labour moderates. They'll have no chance of 'regaining' control from the Corbynites.
Indeed - and that they also lack the gumption to fight for what they believe it by forming a new organisation.
Corbyn will still lack the confidence of his parliamentary forces - and they will be too timid to act in the national interest.
ICM gives the Tories a 15 point lead in England (the Tories and Labour are tied in the North). In Wales Labour has a 20 point lead. In Scotland the Tories are up to 26% with the SNP on 43% https://www.icmunlimited.com/polls/
Three weeks back, the Tories were having fun visiting places they never knew existed, like Bolsover. Is there any evidence that they have rowed back - and the Cabinet are visiting rather less ambitious targets in the past week or so? Be curious to know....
These are the third party agreements that lapse in March 2019. On nuclear non-proliferation so power plants can continue operating (requires US Congressional approval), bilateral aviation agreements so our planes can fly internationally (seven important ones, I believe, including the US Will likely want to be renegotiated for the UK), product conformance, agriculture, trade, data regulation, customs. A lot of them require EU agreement to the renegotiation as well as the third party.
All in the capable hands of Liam Fox.
And some people say, no deal is better than a bad deal ..
If May wins the British people will have endorsed her position that no deal is better than a bad deal which keeps free movement intact and requires 100 billion euros of payments to the EU
She will certainly claim that mandate. But whether she can sustain it in the face of what it means in reality is another thing entirely, given that she has also said she will negotiate a Brexit deal that will improve standards of living. The British people are also voting for that, are they not?
No not really they took the choice that a slight drop in living standards was an acceptable price to pay to regain sovereignty and control immigration when they voted Leave, whether they still feel like that in a decade is another matter and then the single market may be on the cards again
Where in the Tory manifesto does it say that a slight drop in living standards is on offer?
The Remain campaign was nothing but a Leave vote would lead to a drop in living standards but the voters still voted Leave anyway
If Corbyn increases the labour voting share, but not enough to get anywhere near power, the biggest losers will be the Labour moderates. They'll have no chance of 'regaining' control from the Corbynites.
Cry me a river. Some Remainer Tories sucked up Brexit. Others left. As one of the former group I'm not complaining. Lab anti-Jezzites should either realise that Lab still most closely approximates their views. Or they should leave.
These are the third party agreements that lapse in March 2019. On nuclear non-proliferation so power plants can continue operating (requires US Congressional approval), bilateral aviation agreements so our planes can fly internationally (seven important ones, I believe, including the US Will likely want to be renegotiated for the UK), product conformance, agriculture, trade, data regulation, customs. A lot of them require EU agreement to the renegotiation as well as the third party.
All in the capable hands of Liam Fox.
And some people say, no deal is better than a bad deal ..
If May wins the British people will have endorsed her position that no deal is better than a bad deal which keeps free movement intact and requires 100 billion euros of payments to the EU
She will certainly claim that mandate. But whether she can sustain it in the face of what it means in reality is another thing entirely, given that she has also said she will negotiate a Brexit deal that will improve standards of living. The British people are also voting for that, are they not?
No not really they took the choice that a slight drop in living standards was an acceptable price to pay to regain sovereignty and control immigration when they voted Leave, whether they still feel like that in a decade is another matter and then the single market may be on the cards again
Where in the Tory manifesto does it say that a slight drop in living standards is on offer?
The Remain campaign was nothing but a Leave vote would lead to a drop in living standards but the voters still voted Leave anyway
But this is a general election. It is the Tories that will be delivering Brexit and it is the Tories who have said that they will deliver one which improves living standards. Are they really going to say that they did not mean it?
Three weeks back, the Tories were having fun visiting places they never knew existed, like Bolsover. Is there any evidence that they have rowed back - and the Cabinet are visiting rather less ambitious targets in the past week or so? Be curious to know....
If your anecdotes from Torbay are accurate then the deep leave Tory targets are still well in play.
These are the third party agreements that lapse in March 2019. On nuclear non-proliferation so power plants can continue operating (requires US Congressional approval), bilateral aviation agreements so our planes can fly internationally (seven important ones, I believe, including the US Will likely want to be renegotiated for the UK), product conformance, agriculture, trade, data regulation, customs. A lot of them require EU agreement to the renegotiation as well as the third party.
All in the capable hands of Liam Fox.
And some people say, no deal is better than a bad deal ..
If May wins the British people will have endorsed her position that no deal is better than a bad deal which keeps free movement intact and requires 100 billion euros of payments to the EU
She will certainly claim that mandate. But whether she can sustain it in the face of what it means in reality is another thing entirely, given that she has also said she will negotiate a Brexit deal that will improve standards of living. The British people are also voting for that, are they not?
No not really they took the choice that a slight drop in living standards was an acceptable price to pay to regain sovereignty and control immigration when they voted Leave, whether they still feel like that in a decade is another matter and then the single market may be on the cards again
Where in the Tory manifesto does it say that a slight drop in living standards is on offer?
The Remain campaign was nothing but a Leave vote would lead to a drop in living standards but the voters still voted Leave anyway
But this is a general election. It is the Tories that will be delivering Brexit and it is the Tories who have said that they will deliver one which improves living standards. Are they really going to say that they did not mean it?
They will certainly say they have delivered it. And who will notice otherwise?
There are changes in methodology in the report from ICM, which seem to be new in this poll (though I'm not certain they weren't in last week's). Full details here
but briefly: they now allocate some of the people who refuse to give ANY information ("Total refusers"), partly by treating them as Partial Refusers (who say how they voted last time and are now unsure, who are generally assumed to be going to do the same), and THEN plus a fifth for Tories and minus a fifth for Labour, on the basis that last time total refusers were mostly Tory. This is very much guesswork on the basis of a sample of one.
They confirm that without their house adjustments they would get a result similar to Survation (Tories +6 instead of +12).
And they confirm that they are now sampling with actual candidates, so places without a UKIP candidate don't get a UKIP option, and they ask explicitly if the respondent is on the register.
If the youth vote is as fired up for Jeremy as some of the polling companies believe why are there so few tangible signs of it?
Where are the eager young corbynite canvassunlikely Why no deluge of Labourleaflets thrust from an army of young hands?
Either these millions of young Labour supporters are demonstrating a rectitude that would make a shy Tory maiden aunt look brazen or they are all talk and no action and most unlikely to turn out in anything like the numbers currently forecast.
The polls are flattering Labour.
Young Labour corbynite canvassers have been very active here in Worthing at both the CC elections and the GE . The one party that has done nothing here are the Conservatives but they will win easily anyway .
Labour have done nowt here in Gateshead apart from sending a leaflet with an incredibly unprofessional photo of the candidate that looks like its been taken with a potato and cropped from a photo of a board meeting.
Safe seats eh?
By contrast, Labour very visible in nearby Hexham. Town centre stalls, and at the County Show(!). Not that it will do them much good. Cons not seen at all, (as far as I am aware).
If the youth vote is as fired up for Jeremy as some of the polling companies believe why are there so few tangible signs of it?
Where are the eager young corbynite canvassunlikely Why no deluge of Labourleaflets thrust from an army of young hands?
Either these millions of young Labour supporters are demonstrating a rectitude that would make a shy Tory maiden aunt look brazen or they are all talk and no action and most unlikely to turn out in anything like the numbers currently forecast.
The polls are flattering Labour.
Young Labour corbynite canvassers have been very active here in Worthing at both the CC elections and the GE . The one party that has done nothing here are the Conservatives but they will win easily anyway .
Labour have done nowt here in Gateshead apart from sending a leaflet with an incredibly unprofessional photo of the candidate that looks like its been taken with a potato and cropped from a photo of a board meeting.
Safe seats eh?
By contrast, Labour very visible in nearby Hexham. Town centre stalls, and at the County Show(!). Not that it will do them much good. Cons not seen at all, (as far as I am aware).
Many it depends on CLP local organisation?
Hexham ?! Lol that is madness for Labour to think they can get that.
Re kiddies for Corbyn. One other factor to consider aside form that of potential turnout is shy Toryism amongst the young. There is enormous peer pressure on social media to be radical and right on. It will factor into expressed VI. Free uni is a strong vote winner though.
There's what, 1m people (in England) who are of voting age and would benefit from that policy? If we assume that the total electorate is roughly 45m even if they all voted Labour and were all registered to vote, its not a big percentage.
Obviously doesn't take into account graduates who are currently paying off their loans, like me for example...
Martin Kettle on the background to May's 'naked' Corbyn:
Theresa May’s jibe that Jeremy Corbyn would be “alone and naked in the negotiating chamber” (see 12.54pm) if he was responsible for the UK’s Brexit talks was a deliberate echo of one of the bitterest and best remembered phrases in the Labour party’s internal history.
Comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=COt65HZCJaA
There are undoubtedly some rough bits of Torbay. A couple of tenement blocks on the road into Paignton that look straight out of the Gorbals. There's a surprising amount of old council estates and social housing. Much poorer than you might imagine. The days of Chanel having a shop in Torquay are long-distant memories.
Free uni is a strong vote winner though.
Edit: an, I see Mr Eagles already answered that.
I wasn't great company at the start of the party. But I jumped out my skin out 10pm.
I was supremely relaxed about this election until 2 weeks ago. I am now stressed about this one too because that one manifesto move seemed to make such a difference.
Not much margin for error left.
Plus appparently I'm proof all pollsters are rich Tory bankers like me.
You are a LD supporting well hard Brexiteer?
The mind boggles.
All in the capable hands of Liam Fox.
And some people say, no deal is better than a bad deal ..
https://twitter.com/Clive_Bates/status/869570503228493824
On the day Corbynistas launch a tirade of anti-Semitic abuse against a radio interviewer. You simply could not make this stuff up.
Muff journalism.
During the Disastrous Conservative Manifesto Launch of 2017 that was supposed to have had the blue-rinsed oldies sticking pins in voodoo dolls of Theresa May.
And even YouGov found this.
Hmmmmmm.
Then he theatrically pushed the leaflet back out his own letterbox about ten seconds later, all scrunched up, littering his own front porch in doing so but did nothing to pick it up (I was about two homes down the road by then, as I work fast) and his son was laughing at me, with the father swearing - I presume, he said something, although I couldn't quite hear what it was.
I was shocked, but shrugged it off and carried on.
Some people are just quite angry and resentful in general, and looking for a target.
I helped her on her degree and it all started from there.
It is kinda frightening when I realised she was born when Wannabe by The Spice Girls was number one.
Where are the eager young corbynite canvassunlikely Why no deluge of Labourleaflets thrust from an army of young hands?
Either these millions of young Labour supporters are demonstrating a rectitude that would make a shy Tory maiden aunt look brazen or they are all talk and no action and most unlikely to turn out in anything like the numbers currently forecast.
The polls are flattering Labour.
And when was that 'barrage' - over the last few days, so it is indeed a little early to detect a large shift in the polls (or absence thereof).
Mr. Eagles, my goodness.
At last, confirmation. The level of your historical naivety precisely corresponds to the political naivety of a Corbynista
[In all seriousness, I do hope it goes well].
Mr. Royale, reminds me of Sir Edric thinking that pretty young ladies were a feast for the eyes and a famine for the purse.
Safe seats eh?
The kids decided to do something about it, and staged a week long sit in... not outside the Lib Dem constituency office or the Conservative Club, but... in the common room! When I asked one of the lads what difference he thought that was going to make as no one of any relevance would even notice, he just said he'd shagged 4 birds there that week!
Same again next week please - though we'll be in the Italian lakes this time not on the sofa at home. Hopefully there'll be BBC World and Sky News on the telly and solid wifi....
So they don't need to rebuild they just need more time to spread the word.
100 seat majority, 10 to 12 points clear; 46/34, something like that.
Corbyn will still lack the confidence of his parliamentary forces - and they will be too timid to act in the national interest.
Very sad really.
Is this legit? Seems to be in most papers. If so, why are the Tories not pushing it? That's lethal in middle England.
https://www.icmunlimited.com/polls/
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/2017_guardian_poll8_may26-29.pdf
but briefly: they now allocate some of the people who refuse to give ANY information ("Total refusers"), partly by treating them as Partial Refusers (who say how they voted last time and are now unsure, who are generally assumed to be going to do the same), and THEN plus a fifth for Tories and minus a fifth for Labour, on the basis that last time total refusers were mostly Tory. This is very much guesswork on the basis of a sample of one.
They confirm that without their house adjustments they would get a result similar to Survation (Tories +6 instead of +12).
And they confirm that they are now sampling with actual candidates, so places without a UKIP candidate don't get a UKIP option, and they ask explicitly if the respondent is on the register.
Many it depends on CLP local organisation?
Obviously doesn't take into account graduates who are currently paying off their loans, like me for example...
Please feel free to correct these numbers.
Theresa May’s jibe that Jeremy Corbyn would be “alone and naked in the negotiating chamber” (see 12.54pm) if he was responsible for the UK’s Brexit talks was a deliberate echo of one of the bitterest and best remembered phrases in the Labour party’s internal history.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/30/general-election-2017-may-corbyn-paxman-snp-manifesto-politics-live