So... based largely on the issues with sampling and reported turnout (and tending towards the ICM side of things) and adding in a healthy chunk of uncertainty in Lib Dem target seats (and defences), plus a few other completely subjective best guesses and gut feels, I think the final seat tallies will be (low-most likely-high; note that "most likely" is NOT the centre of the range because a lot of these are skewed one way or the other):
More bullish on the LDs than I would be but, otherwise, very credible.
I feel similarly to you. But the caveat I have is based around the Scottish elections last year, where the SNP increased their vote, the LDs slipped to just 5% of the list vote, and yet doubled their FPTP constituencies.
I remember in the run up, there was much discussion about whether they would win *any* seats in Scotland.
Last year saw substantive tactical voting for the LDs in Scotland. Could we see similar this year at Westminster? If we did, it would likely hand half a dozen seats in Remainia to them. Is it likely? No. I reckon 10-11 is the most likely seat count, and 6-9 is more likely than 12-15. But it is possible.
I did umm and ah between 11 and 12 for the LDs for my "most likely" number and possibly skewed it towards 12 simply because of a tendency pressing away from one end.
Much relief in Tory circles at that ICM. The surge has peaked, it seems.
I reckon TMay will achieve a ten point lead or more, and with an extra boost in marginals and Scotland, and young people failing to turn out, as ever, she will win at a canter.
After all this huffing and puffing, fully a month later, maybe my original prediction of a 80-100 seat majority was quite accurate.
Too early to say but it looks more promising.
It seems to resemble the Scottish referendum to me. Ultimately, you start running into hard core opponents who don't switch.
Least Angus Robertson is also there. So Amber Rudd won't look too out the ordinary.
In fact a good portion of the viewers will probably think she IS the leader !
The fact that she's been sent suggests that she's the effective Deputy.
Possible Chancellor in less than a fortnight.
Possible, but FS in less than a fortnight more possible?
I still can't get away from the thought that Gove is going to make a comeback - and in a high ranking position.
Gove has behaved, so he may well do so.
I'm unsure in what capacity.
As I've said before, I'd put him and his aide Dominic Cummings, in charge of Brexit. They are brainy, stubborn, hard working and radical. And were probably more responsible for Brexit than anybody else as the intellectual power behind Vote Leave.
Let them take on the EU the way they took on the UK establishment. It may be explosive in parts but they'd be shrewd enough to know when it's sensible to concede.
Agree with all of this.
I wish our politicians were more comfortable in surrounding themselves with the best talent in their parties, rather than those who just happen to be ultra-loyalists and agree with them.
Agree 100%.
See the managerial career of Sir Alex Ferguson. He harnessed the talents of some difficult characters and produced a string of winning teams.
Suggests that the Facebook barrage against Corbyn and Abbott has had no effect, or alternatively that it's countering effects that would otherwise have narrowed the lead more. I'd guess the former - people who care what they said 40 years ago have already factored it in.
Although Martin Boon doesn't say it explicitly, this presumably has the same feature as the last ICM that it is about 8 points better for the Tory lead than if the assumptions of other polling institutes are made (essentially ICM assume that voting patterns are like last time, while others take assertions of certainty to vote at face value). So if the 14-point lead was "very close" (Martin last week) to the 5-point lead on that basis, presumably this is close to a 3-point lead. What evidence we have (unusually high registration among the young, anecdotal reports) suggests that something is happening, but Boon is convincing on it not being the whole story. Perhaps we should split the difference and guess at a less of 7-8.
Wasn't the polling done 26 to 29 May 2017, so that's hardly 'changes since the weekend' ? If that's the case, then surely a bit early to be making solid judgments.
The Facebook barrage is designed to get that 45% to go out and vote. If it wins over anyone else, that's a bonus, but not the point.
Much relief in Tory circles at that ICM. The surge has peaked, it seems.
I reckon TMay will achieve a ten point lead or more, and with an extra boost in marginals and Scotland, and young people failing to turn out, as ever, she will win at a canter.
After all this huffing and puffing, fully a month later, maybe my original prediction of a 80-100 seat majority was quite accurate.
It was always going to be that way. The panic on here from some was surreal.
I honestly cannot recall an election campaign where the Chancellor of the Exchequer has been so invisible. When economic competence is a key advantage (according to the polling) it really is extraordinary. Are the Tories planning to go big on the economy in the last week and wanted to hold him back? Or is he just toast?
Hammond is being hidden to avoid questions about putting up taxes. He tried it in the budget, and this time round the Conservatives have dropped the no tax rise pledge.
Even by the standards of this campaign that would be incredibly stupid. The Tories should be clear that they will do whatever is necessary to help the economy and protect public services. That message should come from the Chancellor as the money man with a grip on the figures. It would also put the spotlight on McMao which cannot be a bad thing for the Tories. It is probably the most favourable comparator available, even more than the leader.
Hiding the Chancellor is fighting with a hand tied behind your back.
The problem with Hammond is that he is too likely to answer Brexit questions with a degree of realism. May does not need uncomfortable headlines - especially not from the right wing press. It's why it looks like he will probably be soon after the election.
Much relief in Tory circles at that ICM. The surge has peaked, it seems.
I reckon TMay will achieve a ten point lead or more, and with an extra boost in marginals and Scotland, and young people failing to turn out, as ever, she will win at a canter.
After all this huffing and puffing, fully a month later, maybe my original prediction of a 80-100 seat majority was quite accurate.
Too early to say but it looks more promising.
Oh, for sure. I'll be back to the screaming abdabs by this evening, when YouGov have the Tory lead down to 4....
But ICM and Comres are the two best, to my mind, and they both have it around 12....
Sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof.
If this all ends up with a thumping Tory majority, we'll look back wondering WTF all the fuss was about.
I wonder how the Twittersphere will handle it? Dr Eoin Clarke will probably hang himself.
Much relief in Tory circles at that ICM. The surge has peaked, it seems.
I reckon TMay will achieve a ten point lead or more, and with an extra boost in marginals and Scotland, and young people failing to turn out, as ever, she will win at a canter.
After all this huffing and puffing, fully a month later, maybe my original prediction of a 80-100 seat majority was quite accurate.
It was always going to be that way. The panic on here from some was surreal.
Vote efficiency will come into play big time. Survation, despite the lower lead overall, had the Tories ahead of labour everywhere outside London. That, if turnout also goes agin the reds, implies a shellacking. Which takes us back to the uncut article........
Possibly the very worst result possible for Labour. The Tories get their increased majority but the Corbynites point to him increasing their share of the vote and use it as an excuse to stay on. Bad for both Labour and the country.
Much relief in Tory circles at that ICM. The surge has peaked, it seems.
I reckon TMay will achieve a ten point lead or more, and with an extra boost in marginals and Scotland, and young people failing to turn out, as ever, she will win at a canter.
After all this huffing and puffing, fully a month later, maybe my original prediction of a 80-100 seat majority was quite accurate.
I've got over my major wobble after that yougov poll showing a 5% gap. Even if that's repeated in further polls, that graphic showing the majority of 18-24 yr olds already living in safe Labour seats has settled my nerves.
Labour appear to be suffering from the same problem the Tories had for all those years - voter inefficiency.
I'm more relaxed now than I have been since those first heady opnion polls showing improbable Tory leads.
Much relief in Tory circles at that ICM. The surge has peaked, it seems.
I reckon TMay will achieve a ten point lead or more, and with an extra boost in marginals and Scotland, and young people failing to turn out, as ever, she will win at a canter.
After all this huffing and puffing, fully a month later, maybe my original prediction of a 80-100 seat majority was quite accurate.
Too early to say but it looks more promising.
How does it look more promising ? the lead in ICM is down from 14 to 12 , sure it is higher than other pollsters but the trend is still all one way to a narrowing poll lead .
The annoying thing about this GE is that I am now probably going to end up staying awake all night watching it. I was hoping this time the result would be so clear-cut so early that I could get a decent night's sleep.
Much relief in Tory circles at that ICM. The surge has peaked, it seems.
I reckon TMay will achieve a ten point lead or more, and with an extra boost in marginals and Scotland, and young people failing to turn out, as ever, she will win at a canter.
After all this huffing and puffing, fully a month later, maybe my original prediction of a 80-100 seat majority was quite accurate.
It was always going to be that way. The panic on here from some was surreal.
I LIKE panicking. I'm an ex drug addict. I love the rush of emotions and hormones. Panicking at YouGov polls is heroin for the over-50s.
The annoying thing about this GE is that I am now probably going to end up staying awake all night watching it. I was hoping this time the result would be so clear-cut so early that I could get a decent night's sleep.
It'll be worth it either way, either tight or there's at least the non partisan possibility for some 'no freaking way!' Moments. I think Scotland results will be worth staying up for regardless of the overall.
Mr. Fenster, Alexander was able to send off his best generals, most notably Parmenio and Craterus, to run minor campaigns themselves, which eased the burden on him and made it harder for the enemy.
By contrast, Honorius, one of Rome's worst emperors, used trickery to get Stilicho, a Vandal-Roman general, to leave his safety in a church on a promise of no harm, and then executed one of Rome's last great generals.
This did not enhance the prospect of the Western Empire's recovery.
I don't know too much about Amber Rudd other than she voted to remain and is Home Sec... Is she any good on the Telly ?
She's also known for being less than complimentary towards Boris in the 2nd referendum debate although whether that's a good thing or not I'm still not sure.
Much relief in Tory circles at that ICM. The surge has peaked, it seems.
I reckon TMay will achieve a ten point lead or more, and with an extra boost in marginals and Scotland, and young people failing to turn out, as ever, she will win at a canter.
After all this huffing and puffing, fully a month later, maybe my original prediction of a 80-100 seat majority was quite accurate.
It was always going to be that way. The panic on here from some was surreal.
I LIKE panicking. I'm an ex drug addict. I love the rush of emotions and hormones. Panicking at YouGov polls is heroin for the over-50s.
I'm 32 and I do exactly the same. Maybe I should get a life.
@AndyBizarre: Ariana Grande to be supported by Justin Bieber, Coldplay, Katy Perry, Miley Cyrus, Take That and Niall Horan, this Sunday at Old Trafford.
@AndyBizarre: Will be broadcast on BBC TV and radio and all proceeds to the We Love Manchester Emergency Fund. Speedy work from the organisers.
ICM is good enough for now. I still think Cons will improve/Labour will fade in the final week. Given the well argued sucking-air-through-teeth, I-wouldn't-do-it-like-that-myself on 18-24 year olds, am inclined to think the 5-7% leads markedly understate the lead. Plus, as I have said before, those Brexit-voting former-Labour-but-now-first-time-Tories are likeliest the shyest Tories we have ever seen.
Been out leafletting in Torbay again today. I like to engage those in conversation who I meet whilst out and about. Still nothing to suggest any sea-change in the past couple of weeks. Still no other party's literature in the recycling. Very low-key election here, for what was the LibDem's 10th ranked target seat, apparently. Certainly far fewer "Winning Here!" diamonds in windows than at this point two years ago.
Still not had anybody run out to throw my leaflet back at me, still not had anyone telling me to "fuck off!" I'm not used to it being this civil.....
Much relief in Tory circles at that ICM. The surge has peaked, it seems.
I reckon TMay will achieve a ten point lead or more, and with an extra boost in marginals and Scotland, and young people failing to turn out, as ever, she will win at a canter.
After all this huffing and puffing, fully a month later, maybe my original prediction of a 80-100 seat majority was quite accurate.
Too early to say but it looks more promising.
Oh, for sure. I'll be back to the screaming abdabs by this evening, when YouGov have the Tory lead down to 4....
But ICM and Comres are the two best, to my mind, and they both have it around 12....
Sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof.
If this all ends up with a thumping Tory majority, we'll look back wondering WTF all the fuss was about.
I wonder how the Twittersphere will handle it? Dr Eoin Clarke will probably hang himself.
Those Corbynistas you sold me - they won't vote. They just walk around Tweeting and not voting. You sold me... queer Corbynistas. I want my money back!
In 1997 I was a Jimmy Goldsmith supporting former blue (was back with them 01 to about 2012) I watched the results with a group of entirely labour friends. The biggest cheer of the night was for the first Tory hold. Apropos of nothing but you can have fun even if things go awry.
By the same logic, don't the Tories already hold the vast majority of seats with the highest proportion of 65+-year-olds.
Yes, but the oldies vote.
There are at least 11 million over 65's and only 6 million 18-24 year olds, the over 65+ are more numerous in marginals. Sorry the 18-24 year olds don't matter.
Much relief in Tory circles at that ICM. The surge has peaked, it seems.
I reckon TMay will achieve a ten point lead or more, and with an extra boost in marginals and Scotland, and young people failing to turn out, as ever, she will win at a canter.
After all this huffing and puffing, fully a month later, maybe my original prediction of a 80-100 seat majority was quite accurate.
Too early to say but it looks more promising.
How does it look more promising ? the lead in ICM is down from 14 to 12 , sure it is higher than other pollsters but the trend is still all one way to a narrowing poll lead .
You are correct - however ICM turnout weighting is similar to ComRes which had a lead of 12.
So most sensible to look at the two combined for overall picture (of position using this weighting):
24/26 May - ICM +14, ComRes +12
26/29 May - ICM +12, no ComRes
So whilst ICM lead is down, it's only marginal and it's in line with the ComRes providing reassurance that IF THIS WEIGHTING IS CORRECT then the overall position is broadly stable.
ICM has fieldwork ending yesterday so I'll put in next week's ELBOW. Or should I extend this week's ELBOW until tomorrow, and do the final ELBOW from Thursday to election day?
Was in Cardiff yesterday, with the wife and kids. There were police EVERYWHERE, fiercely armed to the teeth. UEFA have decked out the Principality Stadium and it looks very cool.
I couldn't park near Central Station, it was all cordoned off and marshalled by security. A demonstration that the local gendarmerie are taking no chances over the Champions League final.
It brought home to me how much the world has changed. Cardiff to me is still the 'town' we wandered round as kids. As 12 year olds we'd catch the train to buy comics from Forbidden Planet. We'd hit golf balls in the sports shop in the basement of the old Howells' store and sit on the castle walls eating Burger King. It was safe and provincial and a bit scruffy.
All changed now. It looked fabulous yesterday and has come such a long way it gets to host huge football finals. I suppose sadly, with gentrification and sparkle, comes the threat of terrorism.
Those Corbynistas you sold me - they won't vote. They just walk around Tweeting and not voting. You sold me... queer Corbynistas. I want my money back!
Remember Sunil. This time round a vote for Wes Streeting is (unfortunately) a vote for Jeremy Corbyn
The annoying thing about this GE is that I am now probably going to end up staying awake all night watching it. I was hoping this time the result would be so clear-cut so early that I could get a decent night's sleep.
Pity me, on election night I'm at some glamorous celeb party in Rome to celebrate the reopening of the old Visconti hotel, so I'll have to be sneaking out of champagne receptions to look at exit polls in the cypress garden.
OK, don't pity me, but you see what I mean.
I was looking forward to reading your comments as the results come in.
ICM has fieldwork ending yesterday so I'll put in next week's ELBOW. Or should I extend this week's ELBOW until tomorrow, and do the final ELBOW from Thursday to election day?
No - keep this week's ELBOW as normal and then have a final ELBOW for the last 3 days which will just have all final polls.
I don't disagree with you there but the way that Osbourne is dealing with it looks very immature. The Conservative Party is more than just Mrs May.
Oh no, Mr Clown. I have had just one leaflet from the blues, and it was all about Mrs May. I don`t live in Maidenhead either, where it would have been explicable. This election is all about her and her lust for unrestrained power.
That would be Dr Clown and why do you assume I am male?
Of the leaflets I have had so far:
Lab - no mention of Jeremy, all national stuff, doesn't say much about the constituency Green - no mention of the dual leaders, candidate like bicycles and electric cars Cons - brief section on Theresa but mainly about constituency stuff
Only five candidates this time and nothing yet from UKIP or LibDems
I have considered not voting this time but it does go against the grain for me. I live in a safe Con seat and we have a very active youngish MP so I shall probably vote for them. I should like to be able to consider voting LibDem but we have been offered the same candidate here for what seems like forever and who is, sadly, a complete duffer. Not impressed with Farron, either.
Re Manchester. On Sunday I saw, for the first time in my memory, armed police patrolling the streets of the city centre in Norwich. It was quite surreal. It might impact the voting zeitgeist more than we think.
The annoying thing about this GE is that I am now probably going to end up staying awake all night watching it. I was hoping this time the result would be so clear-cut so early that I could get a decent night's sleep.
Pity me, on election night I'm at some glamorous celeb party in Rome to celebrate the reopening of the old Visconti hotel, so I'll have to be sneaking out of champagne receptions to look at exit polls in the cypress garden.
OK, don't pity me, but you see what I mean.
I remember listening to the '83 election results on the World Service in Grenoble, and the '01 election results on the World Service in Pisa (after a particularly agreeable meal).
This time I shall be at the count in the Riviera Centre, Torquay
For what it's worth, their Twitter feeds show that Keir Starmer. Yvette Cooper and Chuka Umuna have been doing a lot of visits to Labour constituencies that are not their own. Read into that what you will.
I honestly cannot recall an election campaign where the Chancellor of the Exchequer has been so invisible. When economic competence is a key advantage (according to the polling) it really is extraordinary. Are the Tories planning to go big on the economy in the last week and wanted to hold him back? Or is he just toast?
Hammond is being hidden to avoid questions about putting up taxes. He tried it in the budget, and this time round the Conservatives have dropped the no tax rise pledge.
Even by the standards of this campaign that would be incredibly stupid. The Tories should be clear that they will do whatever is necessary to help the economy and protect public services. That message should come from the Chancellor as the money man with a grip on the figures. It would also put the spotlight on McMao which cannot be a bad thing for the Tories. It is probably the most favourable comparator available, even more than the leader.
Hiding the Chancellor is fighting with a hand tied behind your back.
It is not just the Chancellor. Where's Jeremy Hunt? Damian Green was about but seems to have taken the last week off. I cannot remember a campaign like this where half the Cabinet's missing in action.
I think it was ComRes that found that 24% of over 65s respondents had already voted. So a lot of these votes are presumably already in the bag for the Conservatives.
We're looking at partial exits on he 65+ age group then aren't we ?
No. They ask you if you have already voted, if you have then they don't ask you the VI question
I thought they include you if you already voted but don't separate the figures out. So will be in the 45% headline figure?
For what it's worth, their Twitter feeds show that Keir Starmer. Yvette Cooper and Chuka Umuna have been doing a lot of visits to Labour constituencies that are not their own. Read into that what you will.
If Yvette was doing visits to a London constituency that was her own it would be very odd! Edit - poops, sorry I misread what you wrote! I think Labour will gain in remainia London, but nowhere else. Yvette ought to be safe unless the wheels totally come off.
Possibly the very worst result possible for Labour. The Tories get their increased majority but the Corbynites point to him increasing their share of the vote and use it as an excuse to stay on. Bad for both Labour and the country.
Unless the Lab "surge" represents people seeing Jezza, Macca and Diane and liking what they see. 30%+ of the electorate like the fact that Lab is heading leftwards. What is bad for Lab about that?
Mainstream centrist Lab MP or supporter? Fine - go and found your own party.
Those Corbynistas you sold me - they won't vote. They just walk around Tweeting and not voting. You sold me... queer Corbynistas. I want my money back!
Remember Sunil. This time round a vote for Wes Streeting is (unfortunately) a vote for Jeremy Corbyn
LOL at lefty rage over Jez being mugged on Woman's Hour, and the story headlining World at One and the Beeb news site (it is 9th from the top on Sky News). Mind you, if they had done this to a Tory I would be livid. They really don't seem to like him.
Still not had anybody run out to throw my leaflet back at me, still not had anyone telling me to "fuck off!" I'm not used to it being this civil.....
Is that what usually happens? I've canvassed in places from Glasgow tenements to Sussex villages for 50 years, and neither of those events has ever happened to me! Torbay must be a jolly scary place.
Much relief in Tory circles at that ICM. The surge has peaked, it seems.
I reckon TMay will achieve a ten point lead or more, and with an extra boost in marginals and Scotland, and young people failing to turn out, as ever, she will win at a canter.
After all this huffing and puffing, fully a month later, maybe my original prediction of a 80-100 seat majority was quite accurate.
Too early to say but it looks more promising.
How does it look more promising ? the lead in ICM is down from 14 to 12 , sure it is higher than other pollsters but the trend is still all one way to a narrowing poll lead .
You are correct - however ICM turnout weighting is similar to ComRes which had a lead of 12.
So most sensible to look at the two combined for overall picture (of position using this weighting):
24/26 May - ICM +14, ComRes +12
26/29 May - ICM +12, no ComRes
So whilst ICM lead is down, it's only marginal and it's in line with the ComRes providing reassurance that IF THIS WEIGHTING IS CORRECT then the overall position is broadly stable.
Were these polls undertaken before or after Woman's Hour?
Presumably Corbyn isn't going after the Jewish vote? Well at least not in the traditional sense.
The sort of Left Corbyn represents no longer thinks (if they ever did) that Jews are an ethnic minority or a minority or the object of any sort of racism or prejudice at all.
They are white and part of the Western oppressors..... or something.
At any event, it is remarkable how the sorts of anti-Jewish tropes common amongst the wicked far right are also repeated amongst some on the far left.
Was in Cardiff yesterday, with the wife and kids. There were police EVERYWHERE, fiercely armed to the teeth. UEFA have decked out the Principality Stadium and it looks very cool.
I couldn't park near Central Station, it was all cordoned off and marshalled by security. A demonstration that the local gendarmerie are taking no chances over the Champions League final.
It brought home to me how much the world has changed. Cardiff to me is still the 'town' we wandered round as kids. As 12 year olds we'd catch the train to buy comics from Forbidden Planet. We'd hit golf balls in the sports shop in the basement of the old Howells' store and sit on the castle walls eating Burger King. It was safe and provincial and a bit scruffy.
All changed now. It looked fabulous yesterday and has come such a long way it gets to host huge football finals. I suppose sadly, with gentrification and sparkle, comes the threat of terrorism.
Does it have any restaurants which could wash their face outside south Wales? It was always pretty grim and lowest common denominator stuff.
Still not had anybody run out to throw my leaflet back at me, still not had anyone telling me to "fuck off!" I'm not used to it being this civil.....
Is that what usually happens? I've canvassed in places from Glasgow tenements to Sussex villages for 50 years, and neither of those events has ever happened to me! Torbay must be a jolly scary place.
I once put a Tory leaflet through a letter box and as I was pushing it through felt a hand put the leaflet back in my hand! It was a horrible sensation!
Still not had anybody run out to throw my leaflet back at me, still not had anyone telling me to "fuck off!" I'm not used to it being this civil.....
Is that what usually happens? I've canvassed in places from Glasgow tenements to Sussex villages for 50 years, and neither of those events has ever happened to me! Torbay must be a jolly scary place.
Around the time of the 97 Election I had some of that sort of thing happen, not a lot, and I could normally laugh about it afterwards, but yes it happens.
ICM has fieldwork ending yesterday so I'll put in next week's ELBOW. Or should I extend this week's ELBOW until tomorrow, and do the final ELBOW from Thursday to election day?
No - keep this week's ELBOW as normal and then have a final ELBOW for the last 3 days which will just have all final polls.
OK, cheers, sounds cool! Two more ELBOWs due before election day then
Much relief in Tory circles at that ICM. The surge has peaked, it seems.
I reckon TMay will achieve a ten point lead or more, and with an extra boost in marginals and Scotland, and young people failing to turn out, as ever, she will win at a canter.
After all this huffing and puffing, fully a month later, maybe my original prediction of a 80-100 seat majority was quite accurate.
Too early to say but it looks more promising.
How does it look more promising ? the lead in ICM is down from 14 to 12 , sure it is higher than other pollsters but the trend is still all one way to a narrowing poll lead .
You are correct - however ICM turnout weighting is similar to ComRes which had a lead of 12.
So most sensible to look at the two combined for overall picture (of position using this weighting):
24/26 May - ICM +14, ComRes +12
26/29 May - ICM +12, no ComRes
So whilst ICM lead is down, it's only marginal and it's in line with the ComRes providing reassurance that IF THIS WEIGHTING IS CORRECT then the overall position is broadly stable.
A 12% lead is about the same as Thatcher managed in 1987, or Blair managed in 1997.
Least Angus Robertson is also there. So Amber Rudd won't look too out the ordinary.
In fact a good portion of the viewers will probably think she IS the leader !
The fact that she's been sent suggests that she's the effective Deputy.
Possible Chancellor in less than a fortnight.
Possible, but FS in less than a fortnight more possible?
I still can't get away from the thought that Gove is going to make a comeback - and in a high ranking position.
Gove to replace Boris? That'd do wonders for their already iffy relationship. Might be a good move though. Boris to Party Chairman.
Once the Brexit stuff begins it would be very wise to keep Boris away from the Foreign Office. He is genuinely a figure of scorn and derision in Europe, and further afield. He does the UK's cause no good at all. Gove would be a lot better. He is polite, civil and constructive, while having all the Leave credentials necessary. Boris's time must surely be done.
Suggests that the Facebook barrage against Corbyn and Abbott has had no effect, or alternatively that it's countering effects that would otherwise have narrowed the lead more. I'd guess the former - people who care what they said 40 years ago have already factored it in.
Although Martin Boon doesn't say it explicitly, this presumably has the same feature as the last ICM that it is about 8 points better for the Tory lead than if the assumptions of other polling institutes are made (essentially ICM assume that voting patterns are like last time, while others take assertions of certainty to vote at face value). So if the 14-point lead was "very close" (Martin last week) to the 5-point lead on that basis, presumably this is close to a 3-point lead. What evidence we have (unusually high registration among the young, anecdotal reports) suggests that something is happening, but Boon is convincing on it not being the whole story. Perhaps we should split the difference and guess at a less of 7-8.
Wasn't the polling done 26 to 29 May 2017, so that's hardly 'changes since the weekend' ? If that's the case, then surely a bit early to be making solid judgments.
Sorry, don't understand. Where do you see me refer to the weekend? I was referring to the absence of a pro-Tory shift during the period of Facebook barrage, as anticipated by SeanT and others.
It's possible that the barrrage merely strengthens certainty to vote, of course, but that's not all that was predicted here. It's interesting beyond the current election, since pros of all parties want to know whether FB barrages actually work.
The annoying thing about this GE is that I am now probably going to end up staying awake all night watching it. I was hoping this time the result would be so clear-cut so early that I could get a decent night's sleep.
Pity me, on election night I'm at some glamorous celeb party in Rome to celebrate the reopening of the old Visconti hotel, so I'll have to be sneaking out of champagne receptions to look at exit polls in the cypress garden.
OK, don't pity me, but you see what I mean.
I remember listening to the '83 election results on the World Service in Grenoble, and the '01 election results on the World Service in Pisa (after a particularly agreeable meal).
This time I shall be at the count in the Riviera Centre, Torquay
Your Man In the Bay....
20 minutes ago I just changed my tickets for The Goat from June 8th to the following week. I don't think I could bear being in the theatre for the whole evening.
ICM is good enough for now. I still think Cons will improve/Labour will fade in the final week. Given the well argued sucking-air-through-teeth, I-wouldn't-do-it-like-that-myself on 18-24 year olds, am inclined to think the 5-7% leads markedly understate the lead. Plus, as I have said before, those Brexit-voting former-Labour-but-now-first-time-Tories are likeliest the shyest Tories we have ever seen.
Been out leafletting in Torbay again today. I like to engage those in conversation who I meet whilst out and about. Still nothing to suggest any sea-change in the past couple of weeks. Still no other party's literature in the recycling. Very low-key election here, for what was the LibDem's 10th ranked target seat, apparently. Certainly far fewer "Winning Here!" diamonds in windows than at this point two years ago.
Still not had anybody run out to throw my leaflet back at me, still not had anyone telling me to "fuck off!" I'm not used to it being this civil.....
Was in Cardiff yesterday, with the wife and kids. There were police EVERYWHERE, fiercely armed to the teeth. UEFA have decked out the Principality Stadium and it looks very cool.
I couldn't park near Central Station, it was all cordoned off and marshalled by security. A demonstration that the local gendarmerie are taking no chances over the Champions League final.
It brought home to me how much the world has changed. Cardiff to me is still the 'town' we wandered round as kids. As 12 year olds we'd catch the train to buy comics from Forbidden Planet. We'd hit golf balls in the sports shop in the basement of the old Howells' store and sit on the castle walls eating Burger King. It was safe and provincial and a bit scruffy.
All changed now. It looked fabulous yesterday and has come such a long way it gets to host huge football finals. I suppose sadly, with gentrification and sparkle, comes the threat of terrorism.
Does it have any restaurants which could wash their face outside south Wales? It was always pretty grim and lowest common denominator stuff.
I'm no foody. I ate at Frankie and Benny's yesterday.
I suspect restaurants like Le Monde on St Mary's Street and Giovanni's over on Park Place have a good rep. Cardiff is known for its friendliness, its warmth and women who can drink twenty pints and drive home, rather than its cuisine.
Still not had anybody run out to throw my leaflet back at me, still not had anyone telling me to "fuck off!" I'm not used to it being this civil.....
Is that what usually happens? I've canvassed in places from Glasgow tenements to Sussex villages for 50 years, and neither of those events has ever happened to me! Torbay must be a jolly scary place.
Leaflets being thrown back at you by someone running out their house? Oh yes. Usually several times each election.
I usually encounter at least one very angry or hectoring person as well, who also tries to sabotage your work with neighbours and passers by, but they are rare.
Presumably Corbyn isn't going after the Jewish vote? Well at least not in the traditional sense.
The sort of Left Corbyn represents no longer thinks (if they ever did) that Jews are an ethnic minority or a minority or the object of any sort of racism or prejudice at all.
They are white and part of the Western oppressors..... or something.
At any event, it is remarkable how the sorts of anti-Jewish tropes common amongst the wicked far right are also repeated amongst some on the far left.
They were ok when they were helpless and savable. Since they became strong (in Israel and elsewhere) they have become part of the problem.
Same with poor people who become rich and hence running dog capitalist b*st*rds.
Least Angus Robertson is also there. So Amber Rudd won't look too out the ordinary.
In fact a good portion of the viewers will probably think she IS the leader !
The fact that she's been sent suggests that she's the effective Deputy.
Possible Chancellor in less than a fortnight.
Possible, but FS in less than a fortnight more possible?
I still can't get away from the thought that Gove is going to make a comeback - and in a high ranking position.
Gove to replace Boris? That'd do wonders for their already iffy relationship. Might be a good move though. Boris to Party Chairman.
Gove is too much of a thinker for FCO - he is better suited to No 11. He probably will never get it - but that is where he would be of most use.
Or put him back at education, and let the Free School revolution fully develop!!!
personally I would love to have him as PM, but I also recognise that not naturally charismatic person in the normal sense, and few others will share my respect for him.
Much relief in Tory circles at that ICM. The surge has peaked, it seems.
I reckon TMay will achieve a ten point lead or more, and with an extra boost in marginals and Scotland, and young people failing to turn out, as ever, she will win at a canter.
After all this huffing and puffing, fully a month later, maybe my original prediction of a 80-100 seat majority was quite accurate.
Too early to say but it looks more promising.
How does it look more promising ? the lead in ICM is down from 14 to 12 , sure it is higher than other pollsters but the trend is still all one way to a narrowing poll lead .
You are correct - however ICM turnout weighting is similar to ComRes which had a lead of 12.
So most sensible to look at the two combined for overall picture (of position using this weighting):
24/26 May - ICM +14, ComRes +12
26/29 May - ICM +12, no ComRes
So whilst ICM lead is down, it's only marginal and it's in line with the ComRes providing reassurance that IF THIS WEIGHTING IS CORRECT then the overall position is broadly stable.
Were these polls undertaken before or after Woman's Hour?
Still not had anybody run out to throw my leaflet back at me, still not had anyone telling me to "fuck off!" I'm not used to it being this civil.....
Is that what usually happens? I've canvassed in places from Glasgow tenements to Sussex villages for 50 years, and neither of those events has ever happened to me! Torbay must be a jolly scary place.
Presumably your different experience is because the irrational hatred is on the left.
Still not had anybody run out to throw my leaflet back at me, still not had anyone telling me to "fuck off!" I'm not used to it being this civil.....
Is that what usually happens? I've canvassed in places from Glasgow tenements to Sussex villages for 50 years, and neither of those events has ever happened to me! Torbay must be a jolly scary place.
Around the time of the 97 Election I had some of that sort of thing happen, not a lot, and I could normally laugh about it afterwards, but yes it happens.
The only response I've had is being told off for putting a leaflet through the door when it said "no junk mail". I gave the guy such a mouthful "...freedom...your right to vote...fought for...etc..." that he was hugely apologetic afterwards.
Least Angus Robertson is also there. So Amber Rudd won't look too out the ordinary.
In fact a good portion of the viewers will probably think she IS the leader !
The fact that she's been sent suggests that she's the effective Deputy.
Possible Chancellor in less than a fortnight.
Possible, but FS in less than a fortnight more possible?
I still can't get away from the thought that Gove is going to make a comeback - and in a high ranking position.
Gove to replace Boris? That'd do wonders for their already iffy relationship. Might be a good move though. Boris to Party Chairman.
Gove is too much of a thinker for FCO - he is better suited to No 11. He probably will never get it - but that is where he would be of most use.
Or put him back at education, and let the Free School revolution fully develop!!!
personally I would love to have him as PM, but I also recognise that not naturally charismatic person in the normal sense, and few others will share my respect for him.
There was a 'which politician are you' quiz on some website recently, based on commons vote record. I came out as Gove. He's great - but repellent. A weird mix. His mind with Tony Blair's teeth would rock!
Was in Cardiff yesterday, with the wife and kids. There were police EVERYWHERE, fiercely armed to the teeth. UEFA have decked out the Principality Stadium and it looks very cool.
I couldn't park near Central Station, it was all cordoned off and marshalled by security. A demonstration that the local gendarmerie are taking no chances over the Champions League final.
It brought home to me how much the world has changed. Cardiff to me is still the 'town' we wandered round as kids. As 12 year olds we'd catch the train to buy comics from Forbidden Planet. We'd hit golf balls in the sports shop in the basement of the old Howells' store and sit on the castle walls eating Burger King. It was safe and provincial and a bit scruffy.
All changed now. It looked fabulous yesterday and has come such a long way it gets to host huge football finals. I suppose sadly, with gentrification and sparkle, comes the threat of terrorism.
Does it have any restaurants which could wash their face outside south Wales? It was always pretty grim and lowest common denominator stuff.
I'm no foody. I ate at Frankie and Benny's yesterday.
I suspect restaurants like Le Monde on St Mary's Street and Giovanni's over on Park Place have a good rep. Cardiff is known for its friendliness, its warmth and women who can drink twenty pints and drive home, rather than its cuisine.
Your third key characteristic is in my experience more Newport....
Still not had anybody run out to throw my leaflet back at me, still not had anyone telling me to "fuck off!" I'm not used to it being this civil.....
Is that what usually happens? I've canvassed in places from Glasgow tenements to Sussex villages for 50 years, and neither of those events has ever happened to me! Torbay must be a jolly scary place.
Suggests that the Facebook barrage against Corbyn and Abbott has had no effect, or alternatively that it's countering effects that would otherwise have narrowed the lead more. I'd guess the former - people who care what they said 40 years ago have already factored it in.
Although Martin Boon doesn't say it explicitly, this presumably has the same feature as the last ICM that it is about 8 points better for the Tory lead than if the assumptions of other polling institutes are made (essentially ICM assume that voting patterns are like last time, while others take assertions of certainty to vote at face value). So if the 14-point lead was "very close" (Martin last week) to the 5-point lead on that basis, presumably this is close to a 3-point lead. What evidence we have (unusually high registration among the young, anecdotal reports) suggests that something is happening, but Boon is convincing on it not being the whole story. Perhaps we should split the difference and guess at a less of 7-8.
Wasn't the polling done 26 to 29 May 2017, so that's hardly 'changes since the weekend' ? If that's the case, then surely a bit early to be making solid judgments.
Sorry, don't understand. Where do you see me refer to the weekend? I was referring to the absence of a pro-Tory shift during the period of Facebook barrage, as anticipated by SeanT and others.
It's possible that the barrrage merely strengthens certainty to vote, of course, but that's not all that was predicted here. It's interesting beyond the current election, since pros of all parties want to know whether FB barrages actually work.
Obviously you won't, PPBs and videos done shift polling numbers, the aim is viral coverage to sway a few hundred votes in a number of marginals. And to set up a doubt in general that can be fed.
Much relief in Tory circles at that ICM. The surge has peaked, it seems.
I reckon TMay will achieve a ten point lead or more, and with an extra boost in marginals and Scotland, and young people failing to turn out, as ever, she will win at a canter.
After all this huffing and puffing, fully a month later, maybe my original prediction of a 80-100 seat majority was quite accurate.
Too early to say but it looks more promising.
How does it look more promising ? the lead in ICM is down from 14 to 12 , sure it is higher than other pollsters but the trend is still all one way to a narrowing poll lead .
You are correct - however ICM turnout weighting is similar to ComRes which had a lead of 12.
So most sensible to look at the two combined for overall picture (of position using this weighting):
24/26 May - ICM +14, ComRes +12
26/29 May - ICM +12, no ComRes
So whilst ICM lead is down, it's only marginal and it's in line with the ComRes providing reassurance that IF THIS WEIGHTING IS CORRECT then the overall position is broadly stable.
A 12% lead is about the same as Thatcher managed in 1987, or Blair managed in 1997.
And a 5-7% lead is only half what Thatcher and Blair managed . Which is correct ? That is the crux .
Not only is it geographical (Like the USA), but there are also more than 2 parties with "extra" parties chucked in in various different regions.
& We've also got an electorate that simply will almost always act differently from how they're polling - mostly toward the Tories but also see 1983 for Labour.
Of course there are a load of highly correlated r^2 leadership, BE, LE elections that one can use too that show "revealed preference", and add to that the fact that pollsters simply can't reach a heck of alot of the politically disinterested these days.
People would have to be utterly mad to risk money on this stuff.
This one is particularly hard to solve !
That's all true. What I can't work out is how the runes have moved (in truth) since the locals.
The results all seemed to validate Corbyn's dire polling and performance (we were all saying a Tory win in Brum, and still more one in Tees Valley, pointed to a landslide) and that was less than a month ago. And, if he was here, I'm sure Rod's swingback model - particularly with the data from Copeland - would point to the same.
I'm struggling to believe just one manifesto fuck-up can kill all that stone dead.
Indeed. All evidence pointed to a bad bad night for Labour . Then a surge which suggests a mere bad night, which is good by comparison.
The annoying thing about this GE is that I am now probably going to end up staying awake all night watching it. I was hoping this time the result would be so clear-cut so early that I could get a decent night's sleep.
Pity me, on election night I'm at some glamorous celeb party in Rome to celebrate the reopening of the old Visconti hotel, so I'll have to be sneaking out of champagne receptions to look at exit polls in the cypress garden.
OK, don't pity me, but you see what I mean.
Oh, we do. Glamorous celeb parties, even in Rome, sound pretty awful.
Comments
See the managerial career of Sir Alex Ferguson. He harnessed the talents of some difficult characters and produced a string of winning teams.
Hammond stopping May introduce a spend spend spend policy.
Con +7%
Lab +2%
LD nc
UKIP -8%
Greens -1%
I wonder how the Twittersphere will handle it? Dr Eoin Clarke will probably hang himself.
It's exactly what I would do if I was in charge. I'd desperately need to conceal the fact that I haven't really got the first clue
Labour appear to be suffering from the same problem the Tories had for all those years - voter inefficiency.
I'm more relaxed now than I have been since those first heady opnion polls showing improbable Tory leads.
I think Scotland results will be worth staying up for regardless of the overall.
By contrast, Honorius, one of Rome's worst emperors, used trickery to get Stilicho, a Vandal-Roman general, to leave his safety in a church on a promise of no harm, and then executed one of Rome's last great generals.
This did not enhance the prospect of the Western Empire's recovery.
Edited extra bit: tidied the grammar a shade.
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/869572700586618885
I'm 32 and I do exactly the same. Maybe I should get a life.
@AndyBizarre: Will be broadcast on BBC TV and radio and all proceeds to the We Love Manchester Emergency Fund. Speedy work from the organisers.
Been out leafletting in Torbay again today. I like to engage those in conversation who I meet whilst out and about. Still nothing to suggest any sea-change in the past couple of weeks. Still no other party's literature in the recycling. Very low-key election here, for what was the LibDem's 10th ranked target seat, apparently. Certainly far fewer "Winning Here!" diamonds in windows than at this point two years ago.
Still not had anybody run out to throw my leaflet back at me, still not had anyone telling me to "fuck off!" I'm not used to it being this civil.....
I watched the results with a group of entirely labour friends. The biggest cheer of the night was for the first Tory hold.
Apropos of nothing but you can have fun even if things go awry.
So most sensible to look at the two combined for overall picture (of position using this weighting):
24/26 May - ICM +14, ComRes +12
26/29 May - ICM +12, no ComRes
So whilst ICM lead is down, it's only marginal and it's in line with the ComRes providing reassurance that IF THIS WEIGHTING IS CORRECT then the overall position is broadly stable.
Was in Cardiff yesterday, with the wife and kids. There were police EVERYWHERE, fiercely armed to the teeth. UEFA have decked out the Principality Stadium and it looks very cool.
I couldn't park near Central Station, it was all cordoned off and marshalled by security.
A demonstration that the local gendarmerie are taking no chances over the Champions League final.
It brought home to me how much the world has changed. Cardiff to me is still the 'town' we wandered round as kids. As 12 year olds we'd catch the train to buy comics from Forbidden Planet. We'd hit golf balls in the sports shop in the basement of the old Howells' store and sit on the castle walls eating Burger King. It was safe and provincial and a bit scruffy.
All changed now. It looked fabulous yesterday and has come such a long way it gets to host huge football finals. I suppose sadly, with gentrification and sparkle, comes the threat of terrorism.
Of the leaflets I have had so far:
Lab - no mention of Jeremy, all national stuff, doesn't say much about the constituency
Green - no mention of the dual leaders, candidate like bicycles and electric cars
Cons - brief section on Theresa but mainly about constituency stuff
Only five candidates this time and nothing yet from UKIP or LibDems
I have considered not voting this time but it does go against the grain for me. I live in a safe Con seat and we have a very active youngish MP so I shall probably vote for them. I should like to be able to consider voting LibDem but we have been offered the same candidate here for what seems like forever and who is, sadly, a complete duffer. Not impressed with Farron, either.
Absolutely no to Labour under Corbyn.
if Mrs May handles Brexit in the way she has run this election campaign, the anxiety has hardly begun
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/bruce-anderson-team-may-what-team-it-s-not-going-to-be-a-walkover-a3552341.html
This time I shall be at the count in the Riviera Centre, Torquay
Your Man In the Bay....
I think Labour will gain in remainia London, but nowhere else.
Yvette ought to be safe unless the wheels totally come off.
Mainstream centrist Lab MP or supporter? Fine - go and found your own party.
Cooper in Mr Harman's patch
https://twitter.com/Corbynator2/status/869542300862615556
LOL at lefty rage over Jez being mugged on Woman's Hour, and the story headlining World at One and the Beeb news site (it is 9th from the top on Sky News). Mind you, if they had done this to a Tory I would be livid. They really don't seem to like him.
https://twitter.com/SocialistVoice/status/869565478053834756
They are white and part of the Western oppressors..... or something.
At any event, it is remarkable how the sorts of anti-Jewish tropes common amongst the wicked far right are also repeated amongst some on the far left.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/869571607060070401
It's possible that the barrrage merely strengthens certainty to vote, of course, but that's not all that was predicted here. It's interesting beyond the current election, since pros of all parties want to know whether FB barrages actually work.
I suspect restaurants like Le Monde on St Mary's Street and Giovanni's over on Park Place have a good rep. Cardiff is known for its friendliness, its warmth and women who can drink twenty pints and drive home, rather than its cuisine.
I usually encounter at least one very angry or hectoring person as well, who also tries to sabotage your work with neighbours and passers by, but they are rare.
Same with poor people who become rich and hence running dog capitalist b*st*rds.
When it comes to other matters (South China Sea, North Korea, etc) he's simply not credible as Foreign Secretary.
personally I would love to have him as PM, but I also recognise that not naturally charismatic person in the normal sense, and few others will share my respect for him.
There are now two groups of pollsters:
ICM, ComRes......
Yougov, Survation.........
I know I am !
So much fun for me that day.
Glamorous celeb parties, even in Rome, sound pretty awful.