That turned out to be as brilliant a defence as The Maginot Line.
Hillary won the popular vote in a way that wasn't far off what the polling was showing, but hugely mismanaged her campaign in the marginal seats.
Theresa May may be taking some of her base for granted, but she is campaigning where she needs to in order to maximise her seat tally. The biggest criticism that could be levelled is that it's too optimistic.
I'll be looking very carefully at where she goes in the last 72 hours.
If it is a tepid majority then she's going to get in the neck for targeting places like, inter alia, Bolsover, Leeds East, and Perth and North Perthshire
Leeds East is the only "DEFINITELY NOT" from those above.
Just because they call them targets does not mean they are treating them as "targets". Political parties targeting seats use call centres, mailshots, canvassing and maybe even social networking to target voters. There is a finite amount of money/time that can be spent in an election which means places that are called targets for media purposes exaggerate the position. In other words your fed a load of nonsense. I have my suspicions of where the targets are in this election for the Tories and I doubt Bolsover is one of them or Leeds East, sure the Conservatives would love to win those seats but would they want to neglect the city of Chester for Bolsover? I think not. The other point I would make is the visit by leading politicians to a constituency probably makes little impact on propensity to vote for a political party - quite often it is a case of preaching to the converted!
I'm no fan of may, she's pretry crap, but Osbornes pieces show he has an active hate for her.
I can understand how Ozzy feels: Theresa didn't just sack him, she publicly humiliated him and trashed his reputation. Now Theresa's followers are expecting him to cheer lead. Why would he be minded to do that?
Not cheer lead certainly - its the bridge burning which is spectacular - a 'critical friend' would be in a position to return to politics - he's been far from that....
There's been a dearth of polling this campaign, especially regional and marginal. Is this an admission from the polling companies that their craft is nothing much more than an educated guess, and they're all worried that their reputations might take a further bashing?
Or is just not financially viable for them to run daily trackers and marginal polling?
Osborne is no longer an active politician, but of course he's a super-astute commentator on UK politics. His editorials are absolutely top-notch. He's not pulling his punches, but he's not being unfair to Theresa May either; he's doing his job, and his job description no longer includes campaigning for the Tories.
He should, however, try to appear less bitter that he was sacked - which is what he is risking at the moment.
I doubt very much that he's bitter at being sacked; he knows the score, and he'll understand that the politics were such that she was likely to sack him. But Mrs May went out of her way to insult him, which was vindictive, ungrateful and foolish. He certainly won't feel that he owes her any favours.
There's been a dearth of polling this campaign, especially regional and marginal. Is this an admission from the polling companies that their craft is nothing much more than an educated guess, and they're all worried that their reputations might take a further bashing?
Or is just not financially viable for them to run daily trackers and marginal polling?
No-one willing to pay for it, which is a combination of the two.
That turned out to be as brilliant a defence as The Maginot Line.
Hillary won the popular vote in a way that wasn't far off what the polling was showing, but hugely mismanaged her campaign in the marginal seats.
Theresa May may be taking some of her base for granted, but she is campaigning where she needs to in order to maximise her seat tally. The biggest criticism that could be levelled is that it's too optimistic.
I'll be looking very carefully at where she goes in the last 72 hours.
If it is a tepid majority then she's going to get in the neck for targeting places like, inter alia, Bolsover, Leeds East, and Perth and North Perthshire
Leeds East is the only "DEFINITELY NOT" from those above.
Was she actively campaigning in Leeds East? Seems unlikely for nayone who has ever been to Leeds East. Or was it a generic Yorkshire event to get on the local news?
There are a large number of adjoining Yorkshire constituencies in play - Bradord South, Halifax, Batley, Dewsbury, Wakefield, (Huddersfield - unlikely), Penistone, plus Morley and Outwood which I think is a possible Labour gain.
Instead, the economic risks are all on the UK side. “British exports of goods and services would shrink very sharply,” say the CER authors. “The hit to exports and to the attractiveness of the UK as a place to invest would in all likelihood provoke a sharp fall in the value of sterling.” This would lead to a rise in inflation, the erosion of disposable incomes, a fall in consumption and a deep recession.
Mrs May’s threat to walk away with no deal is the political equivalent of Britain shooting itself in the foot — or worse. The EU’s leaders know this and, as a negotiating tactic, it does not trouble them at all. What is far more worrying is that many Conservatives continue to view a descent into WTO rules as an attractive option. The more Mrs May utters her mantra that “no deal is better than a bad deal”, the more emboldened these Conservatives will feel.
Not cheer lead certainly - its the bridge burning which is spectacular - a 'critical friend' would be in a position to return to politics - he's been far from that....
If Brexit goes as badly as he said it might, he could return to much acclaim
Osborne is no longer an active politician, but of course he's a super-astute commentator on UK politics. His editorials are absolutely top-notch. He's not pulling his punches, but he's not being unfair to Theresa May either; he's doing his job, and his job description no longer includes campaigning for the Tories.
Yes, but the trouble for him is that everyone knows his political ambitions have not finished, and every edition of the Evening Standard is now read from the point of view of: "what does George think today?"
Osborne is no longer an active politician, but of course he's a super-astute commentator on UK politics. His editorials are absolutely top-notch. He's not pulling his punches, but he's not being unfair to Theresa May either; he's doing his job, and his job description no longer includes campaigning for the Tories.
He should, however, try to appear less bitter that he was sacked - which is what he is risking at the moment.
I doubt very much that he's bitter at being sacked; he knows the score, and he'll understand that the politics were such that she was likely to sack him. But Mrs May went out of her way to insult him, which was vindictive, ungrateful and foolish. He certainly won't feel that he owes her any favours.
Both sides should act like grown-ups, but Osborne would do very well to rehabilitate his reputation by showing he's the bigger man and not rising to it.
Not cheer lead certainly - its the bridge burning which is spectacular - a 'critical friend' would be in a position to return to politics - he's been far from that....
If Brexit goes as badly as he said it might, he could return to much acclaim
In his late sixties after several Labour governments......
If Corbyn does turn up, it'll put all the focus on him, trust me.
He won't be facing forensic questioning, and the others will be attacking may ateast as much as him There's risk, to be sure, but also reward.
May won't be there in person, though. Remember when Miliband tried this at the last election? He took most of the flack, not the absent David Cameron.
I don't see much up side here for Corbyn, especially after his car crash this morning. He isn't very good under any questioning from someone who knows their stuff and isn't feeding him softballs.
We need to put an end to these 'debates' - they don't help further the political discussion in this country. I have never watched one and I never will. They are there for the media not the electorate.
Osborne is no longer an active politician, but of course he's a super-astute commentator on UK politics. His editorials are absolutely top-notch. He's not pulling his punches, but he's not being unfair to Theresa May either; he's doing his job, and his job description no longer includes campaigning for the Tories.
He should, however, try to appear less bitter that he was sacked - which is what he is risking at the moment.
I doubt very much that he's bitter at being sacked; he knows the score, and he'll understand that the politics were such that she was likely to sack him. But Mrs May went out of her way to insult him, which was vindictive, ungrateful and foolish. He certainly won't feel that he owes her any favours.
Both sides should act like grown-ups, but Osborne would do very well to rehabilitate his reputation by showing he's the bigger man and not rising to it.
He is. As I said, his editorials are superb. Forget he was a politician, and just read them for what they are - editorials, not party-political pieces. Yes, he's asking tough questions, and pointing out flaws in the campaigns of both main parties, but that's his job now.
I'm no fan of may, she's pretry crap, but Osbornes pieces show he has an active hate for her.
This must stem from more than just his sacking. He must have realised that it would have been impossible to stay after Cameron resigned. Surely any ambitions he had to become leader were torpedoed by Dave's morning-after resignation. Why is there no ire directed at him?
On an earlier thread there was all manner of emoting about Dave. I really don't get this. He left his country and party in the lurch. In the leadership election that ensued May was the only plausible candidate left standing. At one point Nicki Morgan was considering a bid. Nicki Morgan FFS!
What does all this mean for the current campaign? Very simply, if voters behave in the way they broadly did in 2015, then the Conservatives remain on track for a 100-plus majority. This seems, on present assumptions, the most likely outcome. Older people appear more motivated than younger people to vote, most of UKIP’s 2015 vote is going to the Conservatives (and that Party is not even standing in around half of all constituencies), May beats Corbyn on most ‘best for’ measures, and Labour’s core vote lacks motivation.
We need to put an end to these 'debates' - they don't help further the political discussion in this country. I have never watched one and I never will. They are there for the media not the electorate.
The fear all stems from what happened to Cameron in GE2010, from which Nick Clegg was perceived to have benefited. Even since then, all major politicians have been terrified of them.
But, those were the first proper ones (ever) and the novelty and allure has since worn off massively.
I'm not convinced they matter very much anymore, unless a huge clanger is dropped, but, even so, I still want my elected politicians to be good at them, and to do them.
Osborne is no longer an active politician, but of course he's a super-astute commentator on UK politics. His editorials are absolutely top-notch. He's not pulling his punches, but he's not being unfair to Theresa May either; he's doing his job, and his job description no longer includes campaigning for the Tories.
He should, however, try to appear less bitter that he was sacked - which is what he is risking at the moment.
I doubt very much that he's bitter at being sacked; he knows the score, and he'll understand that the politics were such that she was likely to sack him. But Mrs May went out of her way to insult him, which was vindictive, ungrateful and foolish. He certainly won't feel that he owes her any favours.
Both sides should act like grown-ups, but Osborne would do very well to rehabilitate his reputation by showing he's the bigger man and not rising to it.
He is. As I said, his editorials are superb. Forget he was a politician, and just read them for what they are - editorials, not party-political pieces. Yes, he's asking tough questions, and pointing out flaws in the campaigns of both main parties, but that's his job now.
I can't. Everything I read in there I read as "so, this is what George really thinks"
It's impossible for me to read them as anything else.
Not cheer lead certainly - its the bridge burning which is spectacular - a 'critical friend' would be in a position to return to politics - he's been far from that....
If Brexit goes as badly as he said it might, he could return to much acclaim
In his late sixties after several Labour governments......
If Brexit goes badly, surely Osborne will be damaged goods because he was a leading part of the Government that held the vote which led to Brexit? If it was such a bad idea why did he endorse a manifesto that would lead to a referendum on British membership of the EU. Things will also have moved on and new potential leaders will be in place. Osborne is finished as a frontline politician. His editorials for a newspaper whose readership is in a Labour city in my opinion amount to very little.
Osborne is no longer an active politician, but of course he's a super-astute commentator on UK politics. His editorials are absolutely top-notch. He's not pulling his punches, but he's not being unfair to Theresa May either; he's doing his job, and his job description no longer includes campaigning for the Tories.
He should, however, try to appear less bitter that he was sacked - which is what he is risking at the moment.
I doubt very much that he's bitter at being sacked; he knows the score, and he'll understand that the politics were such that she was likely to sack him. But Mrs May went out of her way to insult him, which was vindictive, ungrateful and foolish. He certainly won't feel that he owes her any favours.
Both sides should act like grown-ups, but Osborne would do very well to rehabilitate his reputation by showing he's the bigger man and not rising to it.
He is. As I said, his editorials are superb. Forget he was a politician, and just read them for what they are - editorials, not party-political pieces. Yes, he's asking tough questions, and pointing out flaws in the campaigns of both main parties, but that's his job now.
Why should people pretend he isn't ridiculing his own immigration pledge on the front page and in editorials?
I'm no fan of may, she's pretry crap, but Osbornes pieces show he has an active hate for her.
This must stem from more than just his sacking. He must have realised that it would have been impossible to stay after Cameron resigned. Surely any ambitions he had to become leader were torpedoed by Dave's morning-after resignation. Why is there no ire directed at him?
On an earlier thread there was all manner of emoting about Dave. I really don't get this. He left his country and party in the lurch. In the leadership election that ensued May was the only plausible candidate left standing. At one point Nicki Morgan was considering a bid. Nicki Morgan FFS!
Look at Corbyn. Look at May. No wonder people wish Cameron was still around. Different level altogether. And honourable enough to resign after defeat.
"Thanks. I'm finding it hard enough to sell my house at the moment as it is."
To be brutally honest, your inability to sell your house might be one of those severe consequences of Brexit. Property is gonna take a hi
Well he voted for it.
Yes, I did. And your attempts to personalise it are pathetic.
Why so? You voted for something which you accepted would have a price, and you deemed that price to be one worth paying.
It is hardly pathetic to point out the concrete consequences of a decision you took.
It's only on this forum that absolutely everything in life is seen through the prism of Brexit. In the real world, people aren't like that.
I've already explained the unique circumstances involved in our sale downthread, and the fact that other sales are progressing. But some people can't resist a personal dig.
Those who put their faith in such things should note that there is a decent supply of money available for the Lib Dems to get under 10 seats at better than 2/1 on Betfair.
"Thanks. I'm finding it hard enough to sell my house at the moment as it is."
To be brutally honest, your inability to sell your house might be one of those severe consequences of Brexit. Property is gonna take a hi
PWP
PWP???
To be honest house prices are going to take a hit as I've been looking at moving for ages and everytime I do I just think not paying that for that.
Likewise my parents looked at a 2 bed flat in South Bucks recently. Their reaction was we'll stick where we are and redo the bathrooms...
The story of London property is looking at a 2-bed flat somewhere ghastly, refusing to pay the money being asked, and then, shortly afterwards berating yourself for not buying then and there as the area has "come up" and the flat is worth three times what it was selling for when you looked at it.
I'm no fan of may, she's pretry crap, but Osbornes pieces show he has an active hate for her.
This must stem from more than just his sacking. He must have realised that it would have been impossible to stay after Cameron resigned. Surely any ambitions he had to become leader were torpedoed by Dave's morning-after resignation. Why is there no ire directed at him?
On an earlier thread there was all manner of emoting about Dave. I really don't get this. He left his country and party in the lurch. In the leadership election that ensued May was the only plausible candidate left standing. At one point Nicki Morgan was considering a bid. Nicki Morgan FFS!
I agree with you on Cameron, he was very cowardly in leaving the country in the lurch as he did. It was his decision to hold the referendum last year and he said he would not quit even if he lost. He then just walked away, the man is a charlatan. He was also a shit PM and this comes from someone who supported him at the ballot box and volunteered for the Tories at election time in the past.
Still has CON gain Bishop Auckland. Is this realistic?
Definitely. The North East is likely to be one of the Tories' best regions. The swings in Northumberland at the local elections a few weeks ago were stupendous.
Not cheer lead certainly - its the bridge burning which is spectacular - a 'critical friend' would be in a position to return to politics - he's been far from that....
If Brexit goes as badly as he said it might, he could return to much acclaim
In his late sixties after several Labour governments......
If Brexit goes badly, surely Osborne will be damaged goods because he was a leading part of the Government that held the vote which led to Brexit? If it was such a bad idea why did he endorse a manifesto that would lead to a referendum on British membership of the EU. Things will also have moved on and new potential leaders will be in place. Osborne is finished as a frontline politician. His editorials for a newspaper whose readership is in a Labour city in my opinion amount to very little.
Apparently George Osborne originally wanted to be a journalist. Maybe in his idle moments he dreams that a call will come through to be PM, but basically he has moved on.
Not cheer lead certainly - its the bridge burning which is spectacular - a 'critical friend' would be in a position to return to politics - he's been far from that....
If Brexit goes as badly as he said it might, he could return to much acclaim
In his late sixties after several Labour governments......
If Brexit goes badly, surely Osborne will be damaged goods because he was a leading part of the Government that held the vote which led to Brexit? If it was such a bad idea why did he endorse a manifesto that would lead to a referendum on British membership of the EU. Things will also have moved on and new potential leaders will be in place. Osborne is finished as a frontline politician. His editorials for a newspaper whose readership is in a Labour city in my opinion amount to very little.
Brexit will be bumpy. The British public's propensity to 'blame foreigners' will buy the Tories some leeway, but if its the disaster the Remoaners would have us believe, then the Tories will be out of power for at least two terms, if not longer. Osborne would be in his sixties by the time the Tories had another go. Not going to happen.
Still has CON gain Bishop Auckland. Is this realistic?
Definitely. The North East is likely to be one of the Tories' best regions. The swings in Northumberland at the local elections a few weeks ago were stupendous.
But the swings in Durham (including Bishop Auckland itself) were not.
"Thanks. I'm finding it hard enough to sell my house at the moment as it is."
To be brutally honest, your inability to sell your house might be one of those severe consequences of Brexit. Property is gonna take a hi
Well he voted for it.
Yes, I did. And your attempts to personalise it are pathetic.
Why so? You voted for something which you accepted would have a price, and you deemed that price to be one worth paying.
It is hardly pathetic to point out the concrete consequences of a decision you took.
It's only on this forum that absolutely everything in life is seen through the prism of Brexit. In the real world, people aren't like that.
I've already explained the unique circumstances involved in our sale downthread, and the fact that other sales are progressing. But some people can't resist a personal dig.
I will let you know what it is like when we stick the sign in the garden. It will be post-election though...
Why should people pretend he isn't ridiculing his own immigration pledge on the front page and in editorials?
Well, I'm not sure it was 'his' immigration pledge - I rather suspect he opposed it - but, leaving that aside, of course it's reasonable to contrast what he's saying now (when he no longer is bound by collective responsibility or by the need to win elections) with his position as a politician.
However, what do people want him to do - repeat the party line without hesitation or deviation? He wouldn't be a very good editor if he did, would he?
If Corbyn turns up he'll be skewered by the others. Has to be Rayner. Someone who will come back with both barrels
Risky. Very risky. Keith Lemon in a wig.
Indeed - she is not that able. The same goes for Long-Bailey.
If I were Labour, I would send McDonnell.
I would as well, but we all know he has plenty of baggage regarding security and past associations. Scrapping MI5 and Special Branch being two of them, and praising the IRA. He's not very good at economics either. Dunno, none of them are serious front line politicians. They are by their very nature back benchers, which is where they very much deserve to be.
Still has CON gain Bishop Auckland. Is this realistic?
Definitely. The North East is likely to be one of the Tories' best regions. The swings in Northumberland at the local elections a few weeks ago were stupendous.
But the swings in Durham (including Bishop Auckland itself) were not.
I'm on Blyth Valley at 4-1. Obviously its looking less likely than when the Tories had monster leads but you never know.
We need to put an end to these 'debates' - they don't help further the political discussion in this country. I have never watched one and I never will. They are there for the media not the electorate.
They're there for the 3-4 million people who watch them, and the others who hear about them.
"Thanks. I'm finding it hard enough to sell my house at the moment as it is."
To be brutally honest, your inability to sell your house might be one of those severe consequences of Brexit. Property is gonna take a hi
Well he voted for it.
Yes, I did. And your attempts to personalise it are pathetic.
Why so? You voted for something which you accepted would have a price, and you deemed that price to be one worth paying.
It is hardly pathetic to point out the concrete consequences of a decision you took.
It's only on this forum that absolutely everything in life is seen through the prism of Brexit. In the real world, people aren't like that.
I've already explained the unique circumstances involved in our sale downthread, and the fact that other sales are progressing. But some people can't resist a personal dig.
I will let you know what it is like when we stick the sign in the garden. It will be post-election though...
Thanks. Our estate agent hasn't ever mentioned or cited Brexit once, and we did ask, and we have a very good relationship with him.
He has said the snap General Election has led to the whole market stalling.
George Osborne is now in the entertainment industry. Watching many Conservative voters turn beetroot with rage as they read his crisp and well-chosen words is certainly entertaining.
I'm no fan of may, she's pretry crap, but Osbornes pieces show he has an active hate for her.
This must stem from more than just his sacking. He must have realised that it would have been impossible to stay after Cameron resigned. Surely any ambitions he had to become leader were torpedoed by Dave's morning-after resignation. Why is there no ire directed at him?
On an earlier thread there was all manner of emoting about Dave. I really don't get this. He left his country and party in the lurch. In the leadership election that ensued May was the only plausible candidate left standing. At one point Nicki Morgan was considering a bid. Nicki Morgan FFS!
I agree with you on Cameron, he was very cowardly in leaving the country in the lurch as he did. It was his decision to hold the referendum last year and he said he would not quit even if he lost. He then just walked away, the man is a charlatan. He was also a shit PM and this comes from someone who supported him at the ballot box and volunteered for the Tories at election time in the past.
They were going to force him out if he hadn't stood down, a lot of those MPs that were saying he should have stayed on a bit longer behind the scenes I strongly suspect thought something entirely different.
Why should people pretend he isn't ridiculing his own immigration pledge on the front page and in editorials?
Well, I'm not sure it was 'his' immigration pledge - I rather suspect he opposed it - but, leaving that aside, of course it's reasonable to contrast what he's saying now (when he no longer is bound by collective responsibility or by the need to win elections) with his position as a politician.
However, what do people want him to do - repeat the party line without hesitation or deviation? He wouldn't be a very good editor if he did, would he?
He was the 'strategist' for the campaign in which it was first used I think.
Maybe better not to comment when you have form for the same thing I guess would be my view. No one else is talking about the immigration pledge, it's not front page news! Except it is!!
For a Corbyn minority Government to be viable, Labour need to gain at least 30 seats. For example, rough and ready: Corbyn's 262 seats + SNP 46 + LD on 4 + Green on 1 + SDLP on 4 + PC on 3 = 320 seats, which beats Tories 300 + DUP 8 + UUP 2 = 310 seats.
That means Labour gaining places like Lincoln, Peterborough and Southampton Itchen.
Given the UKIP + CON scores in those constituencies (of 55%+) and few remaining centre-left voters to draw on, Corbyn isn't going to take any of them without significant direct switching from Con-Lab, of which there is very little evidence.
And in the other 20 seats? 1 will be Speaker, 4 (probably) will be Sinn Fein, so you've got 15 unaligned. Who are they?
Why should people pretend he isn't ridiculing his own immigration pledge on the front page and in editorials?
Well, I'm not sure it was 'his' immigration pledge - I rather suspect he opposed it - but, leaving that aside, of course it's reasonable to contrast what he's saying now (when he no longer is bound by collective responsibility or by the need to win elections) with his position as a politician.
However, what do people want him to do - repeat the party line without hesitation or deviation? He wouldn't be a very good editor if he did, would he?
The economic headwinds created by Brexit also have a major change on the calculus of the desirability of reducing immigration.
"Thanks. I'm finding it hard enough to sell my house at the moment as it is."
To be brutally honest, your inability to sell your house might be one of those severe consequences of Brexit. Property is gonna take a hi
PWP
PWP???
To be honest house prices are going to take a hit as I've been looking at moving for ages and everytime I do I just think not paying that for that.
Likewise my parents looked at a 2 bed flat in South Bucks recently. Their reaction was we'll stick where we are and redo the bathrooms...
The story of London property is looking at a 2-bed flat somewhere ghastly, refusing to pay the money being asked, and then, shortly afterwards berating yourself for not buying then and there as the area has "come up" and the flat is worth three times what it was selling for when you looked at it.
I'm no fan of may, she's pretry crap, but Osbornes pieces show he has an active hate for her.
This must stem from more than just his sacking. He must have realised that it would have been impossible to stay after Cameron resigned. Surely any ambitions he had to become leader were torpedoed by Dave's morning-after resignation. Why is there no ire directed at him?
On an earlier thread there was all manner of emoting about Dave. I really don't get this. He left his country and party in the lurch. In the leadership election that ensued May was the only plausible candidate left standing. At one point Nicki Morgan was considering a bid. Nicki Morgan FFS!
I agree with you on Cameron, he was very cowardly in leaving the country in the lurch as he did. It was his decision to hold the referendum last year and he said he would not quit even if he lost. He then just walked away, the man is a charlatan. He was also a shit PM and this comes from someone who supported him at the ballot box and volunteered for the Tories at election time in the past.
They were going to force him out if he hadn't stood down, a lot of those MPs that were saying he should have stayed on a bit longer behind the scenes I strongly suspect thought something entirely different.
That is a fair point! The duplicity of tory MP's is something to behold.
It's only on this forum that absolutely everything in life is seen through the prism of Brexit.
And through Theresa May's eyes.
And George Osborne's:
It’s not too late to get back to the issues that count. Let’s be told how immigration is going to be reduced — not the blank responses this paper got from Cabinet ministers today. Let’s hear how we are going to try to keep tariff-free access to our largest export markets. Let’s debate how we are going to change the global view that thinks Britain is turning its back on the world. We have had no answers from Labour or the Conservatives. In other words, treat the public like grown ups, and allow them a chance to give the mandate the government claims to seek.
Name blind recruitment for all jobs proposed. We will be assigned work by the state at this rate.
How do you interview someone without seeing their face or asking their name?
It will be accompanied no doubt by quota regulations.
I guess if everyone had to wear the full burqa for interviews, that might achieve something along the lines Corbyn wants. But I still would want to know the name of someone I was looking to employ.
The warped minds that come up with such rubbish as this need treatment, they really do.
The real world must be such a difficult place for them.
For a Corbyn minority Government to be viable, Labour need to gain at least 30 seats. For example, rough and ready: Corbyn's 262 seats + SNP 46 + LD on 4 + Green on 1 + SDLP on 4 + PC on 3 = 320 seats, which beats Tories 300 + DUP 8 + UUP 2 = 310 seats.
That means Labour gaining places like Lincoln, Peterborough and Southampton Itchen.
Given the UKIP + CON scores in those constituencies (of 55%+) and few remaining centre-left voters to draw on, Corbyn isn't going to take any of them without significant direct switching from Con-Lab, of which there is very little evidence.
And in the other 20 seats? 1 will be Speaker, 4 (probably) will be Sinn Fein, so you've got 15 unaligned. Who are they?
Like I said, rough and ready reckoner. I probably have the Tories too low, as they'd gain a few from the SNP direct there and I allocated the 30 switches direct from Con to Lab. Similar for a couple of Labour and Tory gains from the LDs.
I didn't bother to square it all up as I was just trying to make a broad point.
Why should people pretend he isn't ridiculing his own immigration pledge on the front page and in editorials?
Well, I'm not sure it was 'his' immigration pledge - I rather suspect he opposed it - but, leaving that aside, of course it's reasonable to contrast what he's saying now (when he no longer is bound by collective responsibility or by the need to win elections) with his position as a politician.
However, what do people want him to do - repeat the party line without hesitation or deviation? He wouldn't be a very good editor if he did, would he?
The Mayites obsession with loyalty appears to extend to newspaper editors.
Name blind recruitment for all jobs proposed. We will be assigned work by the state at this rate.
How do you interview someone without seeing their face or asking their name?
You potentially just stop interviewing. The available evidence is that overall interviewers make terrible recruitment decisions and are impressed by all the wrong things - some research last year suggested you get better candidates by tossing a coin than by interviewing.
Not that name-blind makes much sense in an era of LinkedIn. If you want to know who the candidate is, thirty seconds with google should cover it for anything above entry level jobs.
Comments
Or is just not financially viable for them to run daily trackers and marginal polling?
I was offering Corbyn as PM vs. May/Cameron on GDP growth.
UK GDP/capita would have to fall by something like 70% to get to Venezuela levels!
There are a large number of adjoining Yorkshire constituencies in play - Bradord South, Halifax, Batley, Dewsbury, Wakefield, (Huddersfield - unlikely), Penistone, plus Morley and Outwood which I think is a possible Labour gain.
But, then we see this is the CER being reported in the FT, and we pause.
1. Tim Farron
2. Labour
3. Caroline Lucas
4. Leanne Wood
5. Amber Rudd
6. Paul Nuttall
7. Angus Robertson
Opening statements
1. Leanne Wood
2. Caroline Lucas
3. Amber Rudd
4. Labour
5. Paul Nuttall
6. Angus Robertson
7. Tim Farron
Closing statements
1. Paul Nuttall
2. Caroline Lucas
3. Labour
4. Angus Robertson
5. Leanne Wood
6. Tim Farron
7. Amber Rudd
This for tomorrow night
http://www.comresglobal.com/who-will-vote-and-why/?
There's risk, to be sure, but also reward.
May should have gone.
I don't see much up side here for Corbyn, especially after his car crash this morning. He isn't very good under any questioning from someone who knows their stuff and isn't feeding him softballs.
In fact a good portion of the viewers will probably think she IS the leader !
https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/869475152173596672
On an earlier thread there was all manner of emoting about Dave. I really don't get this. He left his country and party in the lurch. In the leadership election that ensued May was the only plausible candidate left standing. At one point Nicki Morgan was considering a bid. Nicki Morgan FFS!
It is hardly pathetic to point out the concrete consequences of a decision you took.
What does all this mean for the current campaign? Very simply, if voters behave in the way they broadly did in 2015, then the Conservatives remain on track for a 100-plus majority. This seems, on present assumptions, the most likely outcome. Older people appear more motivated than younger people to vote, most of UKIP’s 2015 vote is going to the Conservatives (and that Party is not even standing in around half of all constituencies), May beats Corbyn on most ‘best for’ measures, and Labour’s core vote lacks motivation.
But, those were the first proper ones (ever) and the novelty and allure has since worn off massively.
I'm not convinced they matter very much anymore, unless a huge clanger is dropped, but, even so, I still want my elected politicians to be good at them, and to do them.
It's impossible for me to read them as anything else.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
"Rolf Harris: no retrial on sex abuse charges after jury fails to reach verdict
Ex-entertainer walks free after prosecutors say they will not see second retrial over alleged indecent assault of three girls"
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/may/30/rolf-harris-sexual-abuse-jury-discharged-after-failing-to-reach-verdict
I've already explained the unique circumstances involved in our sale downthread, and the fact that other sales are progressing. But some people can't resist a personal dig.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pseph_winparadox.html
IT'S TIGHT.
If I were Labour, I would send McDonnell.
However, what do people want him to do - repeat the party line without hesitation or deviation? He wouldn't be a very good editor if he did, would he?
Went if you go by the locals.
He has said the snap General Election has led to the whole market stalling.
I am sure the Stasi archives contain a few snapshots of their tour...
Age-Brexit correlation... Thing that make you go HMMMMMM
Copper: "May we arrest you sonny?"
Kid with swag bag: "I would rather you didn't officer."
Copper: "Ok, on you go."
The Tories with their strong poll lead are in a position to take voters seriously: honesty may serve them well.
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-the-tories-lead-means-they-can-be-realistic-a3524351.html
Maybe better not to comment when you have form for the same thing I guess would be my view. No one else is talking about the immigration pledge, it's not front page news! Except it is!!
1 will be Speaker, 4 (probably) will be Sinn Fein, so you've got 15 unaligned. Who are they?
The economic headwinds created by Brexit also have a major change on the calculus of the desirability of reducing immigration.
Christopher Hope
NEW 'A huge disappointment': Mumsnet users vent fury at Jeremy Corbyn for leaving webchat early
It’s not too late to get back to the issues that count. Let’s be told how immigration is going to be reduced — not the blank responses this paper got from Cabinet ministers today. Let’s hear how we are going to try to keep tariff-free access to our largest export markets. Let’s debate how we are going to change the global view that thinks Britain is turning its back on the world. We have had no answers from Labour or the Conservatives. In other words, treat the public like grown ups, and allow them a chance to give the mandate the government claims to seek.
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-voters-need-answers-on-britain-s-brexit-future-a3552206.html
Christopher Hope
The warped minds that come up with such rubbish as this need treatment, they really do.
The real world must be such a difficult place for them.
I didn't bother to square it all up as I was just trying to make a broad point.
Kinnock redux
Not that name-blind makes much sense in an era of LinkedIn. If you want to know who the candidate is, thirty seconds with google should cover it for anything above entry level jobs.