politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov has CON lead BELOW what it was at GE2015
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Just think,Diane Abbott - Home secretary ;-)SWR said:Good god people see sense for f**k sake - if Labour get in we are all DOOMED - we'll end up a second rate country with a second rate economy ruled by the trade unions and Marxists !!
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Tykejohnno said:
Just think,Diane Abbott - Home secretary ;-)SWR said:Good god people see sense for f**k sake - if Labour get in we are all DOOMED - we'll end up a second rate country with a second rate economy ruled by the trade unions and Marxists !!
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This is surely the key - people are often saying 'ignore headline voting intention, look at the leadership and economy ratings'. Well if it is not a walkover on that anymore, then I guess it won't be a landslide to May.TheScreamingEagles said:A month ago, Mrs May had a circa 50% lead over Corbyn in the net favourability ratings.
Now that lead is circa 15%.
She's lost 35% in a month.
Goddamnit, I've got bets on Labour performing what seemed like optimistically a few weeks ago, now I'm in danger of losing our for being pessimistic!0 -
PClipp said:
That would at least be a positive outcome for the country.SeanT said:If this polls turns out accurate, TMay won't have the MPs to do ANYTHING. It's gonna be chaos.
I wonder if we will even Brexit.
If the Soft Brexit/Remain MPs in the Commons unite, they could scupper everything she tries to do, until she yields.0 -
Hard to campaign from Zurich!Mortimer said:
I guess you're doing as much campaigning with real voters as I am, right?MaxPB said:
You are completely and utterly blinkered. I have no idea why. We've gone from a 20+ point lead to a 5 point lead. All since Theresa released Timothy's manifesto. These policies are a disaster for our party. We are not the party of energy caps, higher taxes on risk takers or property theft. Fighting this battle on Ed Miliband's turf is a disaster. Theresa needs to beg Oliver Letwin's to come back and rewrite the manifesto over the long weekend and re-reveal it on Tuesday.Mortimer said:
To be honest Max, the more you moan the more popular Mrs May is in Lab/Tory marginals.MaxPB said:
Timothy is clearly a Labour sleeper agent. There's no other explanation for it. He espouses Labour policies, he wants to engage in theft of property rights and he's brought us to the edge of a Labour victory.AlastairMeeks said:Crush the saboteurs indeed.
The Tory party is greater than Mayfair he shies and low tax libertarians...
Seriously Max, get out of your hedgie bubble, talk to voters in Lab/Con marginals. You will sleep an awful lot better.
You're buying you're head in the sand. It's time to get back to our roots and stop bloody fannying about with this SDP rubbish.0 -
Manstein, Gamelin or Gort?Sunil_Prasannan said:
France, 1940TheWhiteRabbit said:If you want a laugh, imagine SeanT as a military man, perhaps Command-in-Chief.
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So where does increasing the minimum amount to be left from 24k to 100k fit in with this analysis? Or does analysys fail you when discussing Mrs May? I am left thinking you prefer Abbotts way with figures.TheScreamingEagles said:
Older voters vote Tory, they also are the largest demographic.rkrkrk said:
Can it really all be down to social care proposals?TheScreamingEagles said:
They also like to leave their houses to their kids tax free.
Since Thatcher, every Tory leader has pushed the home owning democracy policy and raised IHT to ensure they don't get taxed on their houses.
Mrs May has just shat all over 40 years worth Tory orthodoxy.0 -
Good grief.TheKitchenCabinet said:
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...RobD said:
The second wobble is always better than the firstSouthamObserver said:No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
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Bit of a first down here, Labour posters in farmers fields. Corbyn has reached parts that other Labour leaders haven't.0
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A fascinating photo. Those women are instinctively attracted to and at ease with Corbyn. He has a natural charm that May entirely lacks.Scott_P said:0 -
Would it? Voters back energy caps, free school lunches, nationalisation of a lot of key industries etc and keeping in full a large subsidy for personal social care is hardly rightwing either. Where voters do want more rightwing policies is tougher border controls, no terrorists going to and from Syria and Brexit etc, that is where May needs to toughen up, on BBC news we had voters talking about less talk more action, close the borders etc and Amber Rudd popped up and said that was nonsense and her key focus was victim support!SeanT said:
Agreed. An awful lefty c*nt. Get rid of him.MaxPB said:
Timothy is clearly a Labour sleeper agent. There's no other explanation for it. He espouses Labour policies, he wants to engage in theft of property rights and he's brought us to the edge of a Labour victory.AlastairMeeks said:Crush the saboteurs indeed.
A sensible rightwing Tory manifesto would have won this election by 120 seats.0 -
And what are we now my right-wing friend? The Tories have doomed us all over the last 2 years!SWR said:Good god people see sense for f**k sake - if Labour get in we are all DOOMED - we'll end up a second rate country with a second rate economy ruled by the trade unions and Marxists !!
Austerity and pain for the masses while the rich and powerful get away with it?
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If you look at the graph of favourability ratings - Lab had a higher rating than Con on 22 May - but Con higher than Lab again now.
Implies almost certainly that Con lead would have been even lower on 22 May.0 -
Technically May has only lost on her side of the ratings, Corbyn has been gaining on his side.TheScreamingEagles said:A month ago, Mrs May had a circa 50% lead over Corbyn in the net favourability ratings.
Now that lead is circa 15%.
She's lost 35% in a month.
But it does look like Corbyn is going to keep control of Labour.0 -
And those 2 are Ken Clark and Anna Soubry!TheScreamingEagles said:The Times/Anthony Wells say their analysis of this poll says the Tory majority will be down to 2 (two) seats
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I call it like I see it.Tykejohnno said:
I mean on here.TheScreamingEagles said:
I shall be doing my best to get Aaron elected.Tykejohnno said:
You need to get on board and support your party,it needs you ;-)TheScreamingEagles said:I'm kinda regretting the repeated hatchet jobs I did on Andrea Leadsom last June/July.
No pro Tory propaganda from me.0 -
The Germans captured 90% of Stalingrad, but still lost the battle...TheScreamingEagles said:A month ago, Mrs May had a circa 50% lead over Corbyn in the net favourability ratings.
Now that lead is circa 15%.
She's lost 35% in a month.0 -
I don't believe the polls. Simple as that. I go back to what I said downstream. if the Momentum crowd thinks that the narrative can be changed by influencing the betting odds on JC, they will certainly will target the polling companies.kle4 said:
You don't believe the polls, or you believe the polls will turn back? If the latter, why would they?TheKitchenCabinet said:
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...RobD said:
The second wobble is always better than the firstSouthamObserver said:No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
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Then your thinking is deficient.TMA1 said:
So where does increasing the minimum amount to be left from 24k to 100k fit in with this analysis? Or does analysys fail you when discussing Mrs May? I am left thinking you prefer Abbotts way with figures.TheScreamingEagles said:
Older voters vote Tory, they also are the largest demographic.rkrkrk said:
Can it really all be down to social care proposals?TheScreamingEagles said:
They also like to leave their houses to their kids tax free.
Since Thatcher, every Tory leader has pushed the home owning democracy policy and raised IHT to ensure they don't get taxed on their houses.
Mrs May has just shat all over 40 years worth Tory orthodoxy.0 -
The data shows that there has been an improvement in the figures for both Theresa May and the Conservatives, while Labour and Jeremy Corbyn’s numbers have dipped slightly. But notably, Theresa May and the Conservatives’ favourability ratings have not returned to their previous, higher levels and Jeremy Corbyn and Labour’s ratings have not fallen to their previous, lower levels.TheScreamingEagles said:
A blip has meant that the Tory fall and Labour rise halted and reversed very slightly, and presumably the new normal means the fall and rise will resume soon.0 -
Brexit was a gateway drug to voting hard left.
Ultimately Brexit was won on a manifesto of anti- free market, protectionism and sweeties for all with someone else paying. No surprise that after being told the economy isn't important people are going for Corbyn.0 -
They don't sound particularly confident in their findings.TheScreamingEagles said:
Hmm. I'll re-evaluate when we have more polls.0 -
Er, one of them is gunning for his job...MonikerDiCanio said:A fascinating photo. Those women are instinctively attracted to and at ease with Corbyn. He has a natural charm that May entirely lacks.
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What about more seats than Ed but larger Tory majority?SouthamObserver said:
More seats than Ed. If he does that, he stays and will be vindicated.rkrkrk said:
Would you accept that Corbyn appears to be doing better than you expected?SouthamObserver said:
It's hard to disagree. The Tories are going to win handily.isam said:The polls are wrong, that's all there is to it
What would you see as an impressive result for Corbyn (I know you don't like him - but what do you think he should be pleased with?)
Possible because of SNP losses to Tories.
It's ironic actually that one of the key arguments for Corbyn electability was that left wing policies were needed in Scotland. That doesn't seem to have worked out.0 -
MonikerDiCanio said:
A fascinating photo. Those women are instinctively attracted to and at ease with Corbyn. He has a natural charm that May entirely lacks.Scott_P said:
One of them is every shrewdies tip to replace him!!MonikerDiCanio said:
A fascinating photo. Those women are instinctively attracted to and at ease with Corbyn. He has a natural charm that May entirely lacks.Scott_P said:0 -
Norkrkrk said:
Can it really all be down to social care proposals?TheScreamingEagles said:
It was an utterly shit manifesto0 -
GamelinTheuniondivvie said:
Manstein, Gamelin or Gort?Sunil_Prasannan said:
France, 1940TheWhiteRabbit said:If you want a laugh, imagine SeanT as a military man, perhaps Command-in-Chief.
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And YouGov is the easiest to influence.TheKitchenCabinet said:
I don't believe the polls. Simple as that. I go back to what I said downstream. if the Momentum crowd thinks that the narrative can be changed by influencing the betting odds on JC, they will certainly will target the polling companies.kle4 said:
You don't believe the polls, or you believe the polls will turn back? If the latter, why would they?TheKitchenCabinet said:
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...RobD said:
The second wobble is always better than the firstSouthamObserver said:No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.0 -
I blame Sunil.
He was the one who kept asking for more polls.0 -
In which case UKIP will be on 30%+ within a month, Nuttall would see an ever faster resurrection than Corbyn!SeanT said:If this polls turns out accurate, TMay won't have the MPs to do ANYTHING. It's gonna be chaos.
I wonder if we will even Brexit.
If the Soft Brexit/Remain MPs in the Commons unite, they could scupper everything she tries to do, until she yields.0 -
Twitter last time, then betting odds, now polls. I can readily believe itTheKitchenCabinet said:
I don't believe the polls. Simple as that. I go back to what I said downstream. if the Momentum crowd thinks that the narrative can be changed by influencing the betting odds on JC, they will certainly will target the polling companies.kle4 said:
You don't believe the polls, or you believe the polls will turn back? If the latter, why would they?TheKitchenCabinet said:
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...RobD said:
The second wobble is always better than the firstSouthamObserver said:No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.0 -
May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!).
Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes.
Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message.
Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change.
Pro-Leave people ought to get that.
Still think majority of 100 for May.
However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.0 -
I find it hard to believe they are that easily influenced.nunu said:
And YouGov is the easiest to influence.TheKitchenCabinet said:
I don't believe the polls. Simple as that. I go back to what I said downstream. if the Momentum crowd thinks that the narrative can be changed by influencing the betting odds on JC, they will certainly will target the polling companies.kle4 said:
You don't believe the polls, or you believe the polls will turn back? If the latter, why would they?TheKitchenCabinet said:
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...RobD said:
The second wobble is always better than the firstSouthamObserver said:No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.0 -
Just think, Corbyn could be about to see off his second Tory leader!0
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Gamelin of courseTheuniondivvie said:
Manstein, Gamelin or Gort?Sunil_Prasannan said:
France, 1940TheWhiteRabbit said:If you want a laugh, imagine SeanT as a military man, perhaps Command-in-Chief.
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Given how accurate JohnO has been in the past, I'm inclined to go with his 100 seat forecast than YouGov0
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Considering that they accounted for almost 5% of the total vote last time it along with the Greens on almost 4% plus 1% for PC + others it shows either the SNP or the Greens are polling very poorly and the Green lack of candidates will see their share fall off quite a bit anyway.tlg86 said:I see the others are down two to 6% - does that mean the SNP are doing badly in this poll?
It might be that Labour are getting back a few voters from the SNP as well as the Greens in Scotland (Corbyn is not viewed so negatively by the Scottish public as down south) which could make a couple more seats interesting in Scotland outside the challenges of the LDs and Tories to the Nats.0 -
May is poor, Corbyn is worse. That's the only thing that matters for the election. May's uselessness becomes the key issue on 9th June.0
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On the plus side, no more complacency.
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Well frankly I hope you are right. I don't care for a massive Tory majority, but a Labour surge is not helpful right now, with them in the grip of Corbynism, and a Tory landslide would be preferable to no change or even, gods forbid, a Labour win right now. I'd have preferred a LD surge, but there you go.TheKitchenCabinet said:
I don't believe the polls. Simple as that.kle4 said:
You dTheKitchenCabinet said:
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...RobD said:
The second wobble is always better than the firstSouthamObserver said:No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
Although it must be pointed out 'the polls are rigged' has been the Corbynista rallying cry for ages.0 -
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I'm a leftySeanT said:
Agreed. An awful lefty c*nt. Get rid of him.MaxPB said:
Timothy is clearly a Labour sleeper agent. There's no other explanation for it. He espouses Labour policies, he wants to engage in theft of property rights and he's brought us to the edge of a Labour victory.AlastairMeeks said:Crush the saboteurs indeed.
A sensible rightwing Tory manifesto would have won this election by 120 seats.
Timothy isn't a leftie.
Lefties generally aren't for bringing back grammars for a start.
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But Labour can do better than energy caps, they can nationalise industry. We've given state intervention credibility it doesn't deserve. We've legitimised Labour's manifesto and we're fighting on their turf. It is a disaster strategy.HYUFD said:
Would it? Voters back energy caps, free school lunches, nationalisation of a lot of key industries etc and keeping in full a large subsidy for personal social care is hardly rightwing either. Where voters do want more rightwing policies is tougher border controls, no terrorists going to and from Syria and Brexit etc, that is where May needs to toughen up, on BBC news we had voters talking about less talk more action, close the borders etc and Amber Rudd popped up and said that was nonsense and her key focus was victim support!SeanT said:
Agreed. An awful lefty c*nt. Get rid of him.MaxPB said:
Timothy is clearly a Labour sleeper agent. There's no other explanation for it. He espouses Labour policies, he wants to engage in theft of property rights and he's brought us to the edge of a Labour victory.AlastairMeeks said:Crush the saboteurs indeed.
A sensible rightwing Tory manifesto would have won this election by 120 seats.0 -
It's a plausible theory. After all, the kind of people who put Corbyn where he is might not be up for actually going outside and canvassing, but a way they can 'help' whilst sitting on their arses might be attractive to them...TheKitchenCabinet said:
I don't believe the polls. Simple as that. I go back to what I said downstream. if the Momentum crowd thinks that the narrative can be changed by influencing the betting odds on JC, they will certainly will target the polling companies.kle4 said:
You don't believe the polls, or you believe the polls will turn back? If the latter, why would they?TheKitchenCabinet said:
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...RobD said:
The second wobble is always better than the firstSouthamObserver said:No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
...or am I just clutching at straws?0 -
We'll see what the phone polls say.TheKitchenCabinet said:
I don't believe the polls. Simple as that. I go back to what I said downstream. if the Momentum crowd thinks that the narrative can be changed by influencing the betting odds on JC, they will certainly will target the polling companies.kle4 said:
You don't believe the polls, or you believe the polls will turn back? If the latter, why would they?TheKitchenCabinet said:
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...RobD said:
The second wobble is always better than the firstSouthamObserver said:No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
I'm generally not convinced yougov has been *infiltrated* or whatever. Yougov know huge amounts about their panel and will be going out of their way to get a representative sample.
They aren't idiots.
It's a comfortable explanation for those who dislike corbyn - With respect, I'll disregard it for betting purposes.0 -
Indeed. And who was it that won the 2015 GE prediction competition...?TheScreamingEagles said:Given how accurate JohnO has been in the past, I'm inclined to go with his 100 seat forecast than YouGov
I'll give you a clue - it wasn't our man in Zurich.0 -
I'm much obliged, sir. 'Tis true.TheScreamingEagles said:Given how accurate JohnO has been in the past, I'm inclined to go with his 100 seat forecast than YouGov
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I'm expecting a barrage of polls on Saturday night.
And Mike's busy that night, which means I'm editing PB, and we all know what that means.
I'm calling it now, we'll have a poll with Labour ahead on Saturday night.0 -
Housing and debts as well.dixiedean said:May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!).
Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes.
Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message.
Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change.
Pro-Leave people ought to get that.
Still think majority of 100 for May.
However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
Although these issues affect people the more the younger they are.
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That's genuinely interesting to me, and not what I would expect.valleyboy said:Bit of a first down here, Labour posters in farmers fields. Corbyn has reached parts that other Labour leaders haven't.
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I think people are perhaps a little high on GE news at the moment and need to take a day or two to calm down, that is what I am doing. Plus spending some of my unexpected payrise.
See you in a few days everyone....(not that I expect anyone to notice, but I need the ego boost).0 -
Surely one outlier that is good for the Tories??TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting a barrage of polls on Saturday night.
And Mike's busy that night.....0 -
Quite right. This is not the Brexit election. This is the Austerity election, and after 10 years people are sick of it.dixiedean said:May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!).
Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes.
Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message.
Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change.
Pro-Leave people ought to get that.
Still think majority of 100 for May.
However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
May is selling misery, Corbyn is selling hope.0 -
Given polls like this one, stating 50% would be happy and 31% unhappy with a soft Brexit -
http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2017/03/21/fresh-polling-shows-britain-doesn-t-want-a-hard-brexit -
I wonder what movement we might see in the polls if the final stages of the campaign were dominated by the hard vs soft argument.0 -
People do not fit easily on a left right spectrum. I don't know about this chap - for starter's May decides whether to include things, so she believes these offerings too - but it is quite possible for someone to support, say, Grammars, while simultaneously holding very far left views in other areas. Unusual, perhaps, ideologically inconsistent, perhaps, but people don't fit into holes.The_Apocalypse said:
I'm a leftySeanT said:
Agreed. An awful lefty c*nt. Get rid of him.MaxPB said:
Timothy is clearly a Labour sleeper agent. There's no other explanation for it. He espouses Labour policies, he wants to engage in theft of property rights and he's brought us to the edge of a Labour victory.AlastairMeeks said:Crush the saboteurs indeed.
A sensible rightwing Tory manifesto would have won this election by 120 seats.
Timothy isn't a leftie.
Lefties generally aren't for bringing back grammars for a start.0 -
Wow... That explodes the idea that police cuts aren't important.... But will it become a big thing?Dadge said:"Theresa May was warned by Manchester police officer that cuts risked terror attack in the city" http://uk.businessinsider.com/theresa-may-warned-by-manchester-police-that-cuts-risked-terror-attack-2017-5
Will Labour use it? Or perhaps UKIP?0 -
May is Gordon Brown Mk II.
Plays the strong, silent card which initially polls well but is then found out when voters realise they actually have a tin ear and can't connect.
But she'll still best Corbyn because geography.0 -
If we see crossover, the site will crash.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting a barrage of polls on Saturday night.
And Mike's busy that night.....0 -
Classic line from my dad:
They're going to have armed guards on trains? They could operate the doors.0 -
See my edit.RobD said:
Surely one outlier that is good for the Tories??TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting a barrage of polls on Saturday night.
And Mike's busy that night.....0 -
They are not idiots, but all the polling companies are somewhat desperate for those to answer their surveys. There has been a noticeable decline in enthusiasm so volunteers are welcome and, given the sizes, it does not take too many to influence the numbers.Pong said:
We'll see what the phone polls say.TheKitchenCabinet said:
I don't believe the polls. Simple as that. I go back to what I said downstream. if the Momentum crowd thinks that the narrative can be changed by influencing the betting odds on JC, they will certainly will target the polling companies.kle4 said:
You don't believe the polls, or you believe the polls will turn back? If the latter, why would they?TheKitchenCabinet said:
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...RobD said:
The second wobble is always better than the firstSouthamObserver said:No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
I'm generally not convinced yougov has been *infiltrated* or whatever. Yougov know huge amounts about their panel and will be going out of their way to get a representative sample.
They aren't idiots.
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It was fine. Steady, realistic, albeit not very inspiring, some odd inclusions.RepublicanTory said:
Norkrkrk said:
Can it really all be down to social care proposals?TheScreamingEagles said:
It was an utterly shit manifesto
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If Tories fight Corbyn purely on a laissez-faire platform Corbyn could even win, they need to hammer home immigration, crime and law and order which is where the voters want a more rightwing agendaMaxPB said:
But Labour can do better than energy caps, they can nationalise industry. We've given state intervention credibility it doesn't deserve. We've legitimised Labour's manifesto and we're fighting on their turf. It is a disaster strategy.HYUFD said:
Would it? Voters back energy caps, free school lunches, nationalisation of a lot of key industries etc and keeping in full a large subsidy for personal social care is hardly rightwing either. Where voters do want more rightwing policies is tougher border controls, no terrorists going to and from Syria and Brexit etc, that is where May needs to toughen up, on BBC news we had voters talking about less talk more action, close the borders etc and Amber Rudd popped up and said that was nonsense and her key focus was victim support!SeanT said:
Agreed. An awful lefty c*nt. Get rid of him.MaxPB said:
Timothy is clearly a Labour sleeper agent. There's no other explanation for it. He espouses Labour policies, he wants to engage in theft of property rights and he's brought us to the edge of a Labour victory.AlastairMeeks said:Crush the saboteurs indeed.
A sensible rightwing Tory manifesto would have won this election by 120 seats.0 -
But where's the best value?woody662 said:Some magnificent betting opportunities available tomorrow, time to raid the piggy bank.
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That would be a sub-optimal pollTheScreamingEagles said:
See my edit.RobD said:
Surely one outlier that is good for the Tories??TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting a barrage of polls on Saturday night.
And Mike's busy that night..... 0 -
Yep - the new consensus is that the state is a force for good. May has to deliver.MaxPB said:
But Labour can do better than energy caps, they can nationalise industry. We've given state intervention credibility it doesn't deserve. We've legitimised Labour's manifesto and we're fighting on their turf. It is a disaster strategy.HYUFD said:
Would it? Voters back energy caps, free school lunches, nationalisation of a lot of key industries etc and keeping in full a large subsidy for personal social care is hardly rightwing either. Where voters do want more rightwing policies is tougher border controls, no terrorists going to and from Syria and Brexit etc, that is where May needs to toughen up, on BBC news we had voters talking about less talk more action, close the borders etc and Amber Rudd popped up and said that was nonsense and her key focus was victim support!SeanT said:
Agreed. An awful lefty c*nt. Get rid of him.MaxPB said:
Timothy is clearly a Labour sleeper agent. There's no other explanation for it. He espouses Labour policies, he wants to engage in theft of property rights and he's brought us to the edge of a Labour victory.AlastairMeeks said:Crush the saboteurs indeed.
A sensible rightwing Tory manifesto would have won this election by 120 seats.
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Corbyn is trying to sell our children's future down the river.foxinsoxuk said:
Quite right. This is not the Brexit election. This is the Austerity election, and after 10 years people are sick of it.dixiedean said:May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!).
Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes.
Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message.
Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change.
Pro-Leave people ought to get that.
Still think majority of 100 for May.
However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
May is selling misery, Corbyn is selling hope.0 -
Troublesome thing for the Tories is it looks like bad news just keeps dripping out. I cannot see them getting back to leads in the mid 10s, they are shooting for double figures at best - which would be sizable for them, but very far down on what they thought they'd get after the first week.0
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It's vastly more likely that the polls are just wrong. They've overestimated students voting or shy tories or something like that. I'd cling on to that rather than conspiracy if I were you?Essexit said:
It's a plausible theory. After all, the kind of people who put Corbyn where he is might not be up for actually going outside and canvassing, but a way they can 'help' whilst sitting on their arses might be attractive to them...TheKitchenCabinet said:
I don't believe the polls. Simple as that. I go back to what I said downstream. if the Momentum crowd thinks that the narrative can be changed by influencing the betting odds on JC, they will certainly will target the polling companies.kle4 said:
You don't believe the polls, or you believe the polls will turn back? If the latter, why would they?TheKitchenCabinet said:
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...RobD said:
The second wobble is always better than the firstSouthamObserver said:No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
...or am I just clutching at straws?0 -
The Tories had a big poll lead after their grammars policy, a plurality of voters back it and a majority of Tories, a few more grammars is not the problem, indeed Cameron suffered his biggest fall in the polls in opposition when he came out against grammarsThe_Apocalypse said:
I'm a leftySeanT said:
Agreed. An awful lefty c*nt. Get rid of him.MaxPB said:
Timothy is clearly a Labour sleeper agent. There's no other explanation for it. He espouses Labour policies, he wants to engage in theft of property rights and he's brought us to the edge of a Labour victory.AlastairMeeks said:Crush the saboteurs indeed.
A sensible rightwing Tory manifesto would have won this election by 120 seats.
Timothy isn't a leftie.
Lefties generally aren't for bringing back grammars for a start.0 -
Yep - his unequivocal backing for Brexit is a disaster for them.Mortimer said:
Corbyn is trying to sell our children's future down the river.foxinsoxuk said:
Quite right. This is not the Brexit election. This is the Austerity election, and after 10 years people are sick of it.dixiedean said:May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!).
Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes.
Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message.
Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change.
Pro-Leave people ought to get that.
Still think majority of 100 for May.
However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
May is selling misery, Corbyn is selling hope.
0 -
The data tables For this Yougov poll showed Con and Lab exactly level before weighting 649 voters each .0
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It's not hope, it's a fantasy. Unfortunately people are going for that fantasy.foxinsoxuk said:
Quite right. This is not the Brexit election. This is the Austerity election, and after 10 years people are sick of it.dixiedean said:May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!).
Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes.
Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message.
Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change.
Pro-Leave people ought to get that.
Still think majority of 100 for May.
However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
May is selling misery, Corbyn is selling hope.0 -
But the Con lead of 5% is after that turnaround in favour of Con.kle4 said:
The data shows that there has been an improvement in the figures for both Theresa May and the Conservatives, while Labour and Jeremy Corbyn’s numbers have dipped slightly. But notably, Theresa May and the Conservatives’ favourability ratings have not returned to their previous, higher levels and Jeremy Corbyn and Labour’s ratings have not fallen to their previous, lower levels.TheScreamingEagles said:
A blip has meant that the Tory fall and Labour rise halted and reversed very slightly, and presumably the new normal means the fall and rise will resume soon.
On 22 May, Con lead would probably have been about 2%.0 -
Of course. We all have different opinions.Pong said:
We'll see what the phone polls say.TheKitchenCabinet said:
I don't believe the polls. Simple as that. I go back to what I said downstream. if the Momentum crowd thinks that the narrative can be changed by influencing the betting odds on JC, they will certainly will target the polling companies.kle4 said:
You don't believe the polls, or you believe the polls will turn back? If the latter, why would they?TheKitchenCabinet said:
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...RobD said:
The second wobble is always better than the firstSouthamObserver said:No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
I'm generally not convinced yougov has been *infiltrated* or whatever. Yougov know huge amounts about their panel and will be going out of their way to get a representative sample.
They aren't idiots.
It's a comfortable explanation for those who dislike corbyn - With respect, I'll disregard it for betting purposes.0 -
It's even more likely that the polls are right at this moment. TM really isn't very good.rkrkrk said:
It's vastly more likely that the polls are just wrong. They've overestimated students voting or something like that. I'd cling on to that rather than conspiracy if I were you?Essexit said:
It's a plausible theory. After all, the kind of people who put Corbyn where he is might not be up for actually going outside and canvassing, but a way they can 'help' whilst sitting on their arses might be attractive to them...TheKitchenCabinet said:
I don't believe the polls. Simple as that. I go back to what I said downstream. if the Momentum crowd thinks that the narrative can be changed by influencing the betting odds on JC, they will certainly will target the polling companies.kle4 said:
You don't believe the polls, or you believe the polls will turn back? If the latter, why would they?TheKitchenCabinet said:
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...RobD said:
The second wobble is always better than the firstSouthamObserver said:No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
...or am I just clutching at straws?0 -
Nah - but offering everyone free university places (or is he going to cap places?) and beefing up union powers means IMF bailout like the 70s...SouthamObserver said:
Yep - his unequivocal backing for Brexit is a disaster for them.Mortimer said:
Corbyn is trying to sell our children's future down the river.foxinsoxuk said:
Quite right. This is not the Brexit election. This is the Austerity election, and after 10 years people are sick of it.dixiedean said:May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!).
Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes.
Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message.
Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change.
Pro-Leave people ought to get that.
Still think majority of 100 for May.
However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
May is selling misery, Corbyn is selling hope.0 -
Indeed. May's sycophants can't see it, but this is a disaster for the Tory party. Big state Conservatives. Whatever next.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - the new consensus is that the state is a force for good. May has to deliver.MaxPB said:
But Labour can do better than energy caps, they can nationalise industry. We've given state intervention credibility it doesn't deserve. We've legitimised Labour's manifesto and we're fighting on their turf. It is a disaster strategy.HYUFD said:
Would it? Voters back energy caps, free school lunches, nationalisation of a lot of key industries etc and keeping in full a large subsidy for personal social care is hardly rightwing either. Where voters do want more rightwing policies is tougher border controls, no terrorists going to and from Syria and Brexit etc, that is where May needs to toughen up, on BBC news we had voters talking about less talk more action, close the borders etc and Amber Rudd popped up and said that was nonsense and her key focus was victim support!SeanT said:
Agreed. An awful lefty c*nt. Get rid of him.MaxPB said:
Timothy is clearly a Labour sleeper agent. There's no other explanation for it. He espouses Labour policies, he wants to engage in theft of property rights and he's brought us to the edge of a Labour victory.AlastairMeeks said:Crush the saboteurs indeed.
A sensible rightwing Tory manifesto would have won this election by 120 seats.0 -
In two weeks, the count at Sunderland will be racing to prove that YouGov is Roguey McRogueface.....0
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I don't know if it's fair to call it conspiracy; Momentum definitely did suggest influencing betting markets at least. But it's not likely I grant you.rkrkrk said:
It's vastly more likely that the polls are just wrong. They've overestimated students voting or shy tories or something like that. I'd cling on to that rather than conspiracy if I were you?Essexit said:
It's a plausible theory. After all, the kind of people who put Corbyn where he is might not be up for actually going outside and canvassing, but a way they can 'help' whilst sitting on their arses might be attractive to them...TheKitchenCabinet said:
I don't believe the polls. Simple as that. I go back to what I said downstream. if the Momentum crowd thinks that the narrative can be changed by influencing the betting odds on JC, they will certainly will target the polling companies.kle4 said:
You don't believe the polls, or you believe the polls will turn back? If the latter, why would they?TheKitchenCabinet said:
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...RobD said:
The second wobble is always better than the firstSouthamObserver said:No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
...or am I just clutching at straws?0 -
I think the bankers did that ten years ago.Mortimer said:
Corbyn is trying to sell our children's future down the river.foxinsoxuk said:
Quite right. This is not the Brexit election. This is the Austerity election, and after 10 years people are sick of it.dixiedean said:May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!).
Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes.
Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message.
Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change.
Pro-Leave people ought to get that.
Still think majority of 100 for May.
However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
May is selling misery, Corbyn is selling hope.0 -
Corbyn would be a disaster as PM but I have to say I would find it hilarious if rich free market Leavers found that far from Brexit turning us into Singapore it turned us into Venezuela instead!!JonathanD said:Brexit was a gateway drug to voting hard left.
Ultimately Brexit was won on a manifesto of anti- free market, protectionism and sweeties for all with someone else paying. No surprise that after being told the economy isn't important people are going for Corbyn.0 -
May needs to announce tax cuts now! Yes. it will be seen as panicking, but it will work. Rather then this home-snatching rubbish. Does she not know who her base is! She should be at 47/48% against Corbyn and he shouldn't anywhere near 38%.SeanT said:
Agreed. An awful lefty c*nt. Get rid of him.MaxPB said:
Timothy is clearly a Labour sleeper agent. There's no other explanation for it. He espouses Labour policies, he wants to engage in theft of property rights and he's brought us to the edge of a Labour victory.AlastairMeeks said:Crush the saboteurs indeed.
A sensible rightwing Tory manifesto would have won this election by 120 seats.0 -
Conservative majority of over 100, I sold Lib Dem seats at 23 and will be letting that ride.peter_from_putney said:
But where's the best value?woody662 said:Some magnificent betting opportunities available tomorrow, time to raid the piggy bank.
0 -
Don't be greedy!RobD said:
Surely one outlier that is good for the Tories??TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting a barrage of polls on Saturday night.
And Mike's busy that night.....0 -
It's called power. Right wing libertarians have never experienced it because it goes down like a bucket of cold sick.MaxPB said:
Indeed. May's sycophants can't see it, but this is a disaster for the Tory party. Big state Conservatives. Whatever next.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - the new consensus is that the state is a force for good. May has to deliver.MaxPB said:
But Labour can do better than energy caps, they can nationalise industry. We've given state intervention credibility it doesn't deserve. We've legitimised Labour's manifesto and we're fighting on their turf. It is a disaster strategy.HYUFD said:
Would it? Voters back energy caps, free school lunches, nationalisation of a lot of key industries etc and keeping in full a large subsidy for personal social care is hardly rightwing either. Where voters do want more rightwing policies is tougher border controls, no terrorists going to and from Syria and Brexit etc, that is where May needs to toughen up, on BBC news we had voters talking about less talk more action, close the borders etc and Amber Rudd popped up and said that was nonsense and her key focus was victim support!SeanT said:
Agreed. An awful lefty c*nt. Get rid of him.MaxPB said:
Timothy is clearly a Labour sleeper agent. There's no other explanation for it. He espouses Labour policies, he wants to engage in theft of property rights and he's brought us to the edge of a Labour victory.AlastairMeeks said:Crush the saboteurs indeed.
A sensible rightwing Tory manifesto would have won this election by 120 seats.0 -
Betting markets aren't very pro Corbyn are they?Essexit said:
I don't know if it's fair to call it conspiracy; Momentum definitely did suggest influencing betting markets at least. But it's not likely I grant you.rkrkrk said:
It's vastly more likely that the polls are just wrong. They've overestimated students voting or shy tories or something like that. I'd cling on to that rather than conspiracy if I were you?Essexit said:
It's a plausible theory. After all, the kind of people who put Corbyn where he is might not be up for actually going outside and canvassing, but a way they can 'help' whilst sitting on their arses might be attractive to them...TheKitchenCabinet said:
I don't believe the polls. Simple as that. I go back to what I said downstream. if the Momentum crowd thinks that the narrative can be changed by influencing the betting odds on JC, they will certainly will target the polling companies.kle4 said:
You don't believe the polls, or you believe the polls will turn back? If the latter, why would they?TheKitchenCabinet said:
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...RobD said:
The second wobble is always better than the firstSouthamObserver said:No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
...or am I just clutching at straws?
I was referring to the infiltration of polling companies which seems far fetched to me.0 -
Labour seats with 10000 majorities under threat my arse. The Labour moderates and sceptics will be smashed if these latest scores are even close.-1
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You keep telling yourself that rubbish. May is legitimising Corbyn. That's why Labour are surging, along with frankly stupid policies like house theft.Mortimer said:
Corbyn is trying to sell our children's future down the river.foxinsoxuk said:
Quite right. This is not the Brexit election. This is the Austerity election, and after 10 years people are sick of it.dixiedean said:May I profer some speculation? It's the economy, stupid! Many regular posters are retired, self-employed, or in stable, well-paid employment. (I know not all are of course!).
Meanwhile, real wages are falling again, productivity is below 2008 levels. Low unemployment is masking these very basic facts. Many are in self-employment, on precarious short-term contracts, or on public sector pay freezes.
Simply saying 5 more years, I am not Jeremy Corbyn, is not a very attractive message.
Corbyn is at least addressing these concerns, rather as Trump did. It does not really matter if his solutions are not coherent. He is change.
Pro-Leave people ought to get that.
Still think majority of 100 for May.
However, as was said on the night of Macron/Le Pen...that c.1/3rd of the vote are not going anywhere.
May is selling misery, Corbyn is selling hope.0 -
-
Sad to say what was already a tough ask now looks an impossible ask for TP. Maybe he'll outperform.0
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Indeed I have been poking about in seats where SNP are in a 2 horse race with SLAB, and where Corbynism may well be popular. Parts of Glasgow for example. There were massive SNP surges before in 2015, but are they fading?Saltire said:
Considering that they accounted for almost 5% of the total vote last time it along with the Greens on almost 4% plus 1% for PC + others it shows either the SNP or the Greens are polling very poorly and the Green lack of candidates will see their share fall off quite a bit anyway.tlg86 said:I see the others are down two to 6% - does that mean the SNP are doing badly in this poll?
It might be that Labour are getting back a few voters from the SNP as well as the Greens in Scotland (Corbyn is not viewed so negatively by the Scottish public as down south) which could make a couple more seats interesting in Scotland outside the challenges of the LDs and Tories to the Nats.0
