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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first post-referendum Premiership season ends with teams from REMAIN areas dominating
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Comments
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first0
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Bah! Only because mine got swallowed.SquareRoot said:first
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OGH - I think you forgot the troll face emoticon.
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ACHIEVEMENT UNLOCKED: Jedi Trollmaster0
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I voted to Remain and I can't stand football so I'm not sure how I'm supposed to feel about this. I'll settle for not caring.
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The funny bit is that OGH supports the Premier League team with the second highest Leave vote.0
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Obviously troll is obvious.0
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There is obviously nothing to talk about. Should I log off for the evening?0
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Its also dominated by clubs based in Labour constituencies.
So not the best indicator.
Elections are decided in the places lower division clubs play:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/tables0 -
How about a nice discussion about the wonders of FPTP, and the general crap-ness of AV?ThreeQuidder said:There is obviously nothing to talk about. Should I log off for the evening?
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Is there a similar chart for SPL teams?
Oh, that's right, they're all remain areas.0 -
I'm absolutely fascinated by the sudden pessimism in the Tory ranks. One poll has a 9 point lead, everything else points to large majority.
Also interesting how the doorsteps follow the mood music. Do they really? Or is it self affirming because those that want a swing to Labour bring up something not popular and the Tories don't?
Have single policies ever caused a 20 point turnaround? Ever? In any country?
I'm fairly convinced the polling will get worse for the blues and then better, but they really don't help themselves with some pretty lacklustre campaigning and politicking0 -
Probably just a function of those teams with good players from the EU and those with crap ones?0
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I do believe that Stamford Bridge is actually in the borough of Hammersmith not Kensington.
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It is not so much the Tory share has fallen dramatically, 44% and 46% would still be the highest Tory voteshare for 47 years, just Labour is also up by squeezing the LDs and even UKIP, May needs to squeeze the Labour share down a bit too if she wants the 100+ majority. She can do it if Labour is on 31%/32% and she is on 46%/47%, she can't do it if she is on 44% and Labour is on 35%dyedwoolie said:I'm absolutely fascinated by the sudden pessimism in the Tory ranks. One poll has a 9 point lead, everything else points to large majority.
Also interesting how the doorsteps follow the mood music. Do they really? Or is it self affirming because those that want a swing to Labour bring up something not popular and the Tories don't?
Have single policies ever caused a 20 point turnaround? Ever? In any country?
I'm fairly convinced the polling will get worse for the blues and then better, but they really don't help themselves with some pretty lacklustre campaigning and politicking0 -
That's not the kind of knowledge I'd admit knowing.another_richard said:I do believe that Stamford Bridge is actually in the borough of Hammersmith not Kensington.
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Great IPL final by the way!0
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FPT:
Afternoon all.
I am just back from Turf Moor after a weekend up north. Watching this messageboard over the weekend was reminiscent of every major campaign I have witnessed on politicalbetting.com, there is a wobble for the leading side in the campaign and key supporters of that side go a little over the top.
Now I am not an expert on the social care policy or social care infrastructure more generally. I am pleased a major party is considering the topic and I can see some positives and negatives in the Conservative plan. I do accept it has not been a narrative success for the party; anything that can be labelled a 'dementia tax' and this label not be laughed out of court as ridiculous is clearly a challenge for the party in question. Speaking to some older voters myself over the weekend they were bemused and not comfortable with the social care policy. That said I don't think it would wobble their support for the Conservatives. The WFA changes and triple lock changes were less of a concern, there was an acceptance the existing systems cannot continue indefinitely.
More generally on the polls this weekend we must remember:
- Polls are snapshots not predictions.
- On leadership, economic competence and Brexit the Conservatives lead on polling.
- There are three weeks to go campaigning, I cannot see issues with social care dominating the media for that time period. I imagine the Conservatives will discuss consultation on the wider details of the social care plan and this will assist them in managing the narrative.
- We seem to be on the verge of a return to two party politics. As such the gap between Conservatives/Labour is more important than their baseline voting figure. This gap has narrowed, but seemingly it is less a loss of Conservative support and more Labour gaining.
- Next the Conservatives are being critiqued, yet still have a vote percentage higher than Blair/Thatcher achieved. Also I think the 20 point lead at the start of the campaign was never going to be maintained. People were not thinking politics then, moreover the chance of a Tory landslide will solidify tribal voters who don't like the Conservatives. Moreover, however bad Corbyn is (and he is) how often do you get a 20 point gap in UK politics? Especially for a governing party, 7 years in power? Blair didn't get that beating a tired government of 18 years.
Ultimately, regardless of the majority Mrs May gains (and I think it will be considerably higher than she has now) she gains two more years to manage Brexit, a likely larger majority, can jettison unrealistic tax promises, and begin to change the party's political position. Not bad.
In short. Conservative supporters should keep calm and carry on.0 -
The adverts have been everywhere this election.calum said:100k a day registering to vote !
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/399872780 -
The blues need a 46/47 strategy. If they hit that figure she gets her 100 majority. Labour need a 38 strategy to get a HP.HYUFD said:
It is not so much the Tory share has fallen dramatically, 44% and 46% would still be the highest Tory voteshare for 47 years, just Labour is also up by squeezing the LDs and even UKIP, May needs to squeeze the Labour share down a bit too if she wants the 100+ majority. She can do it if Labour is on 31%/32% and she is on 46%/47%, she can't do it if she is on 44% and Labour is on 35%dyedwoolie said:I'm absolutely fascinated by the sudden pessimism in the Tory ranks. One poll has a 9 point lead, everything else points to large majority.
Also interesting how the doorsteps follow the mood music. Do they really? Or is it self affirming because those that want a swing to Labour bring up something not popular and the Tories don't?
Have single policies ever caused a 20 point turnaround? Ever? In any country?
I'm fairly convinced the polling will get worse for the blues and then better, but they really don't help themselves with some pretty lacklustre campaigning and politicking
I expect the blues to go very dirty for 2 weeks.0 -
Mostly duplicates as usual, I presume.calum said:100k a day registering to vote !
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/399872780 -
RCS1000, Your father will be cutting off communications with you for suggesting he supports Hull City FC :-)
He is a wise man and backs Lancashire's finest!0 -
I notice in Reading West according to Rob Wilson's Tory posters he is standing with Theresa May! Since when did we get multi-member constituencies back?0
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So bilious, so coarse!Theuniondivvie said:I thought the PB Tories were all in favour of anecdotage. This has probably as much or as little veracity as some anonymous bloke telling us what another anonymous bloke said about Corbyn down the saloon bar.
A few folk telling similar stories on the phone-ins this week should keep the cluster fuck clustering.
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sorry I meant Reading East
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Boring0
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You could stay for a discussion of Labour seats that are apparently value, now that the meltdown has been postponed. Highlighted on previous thread were Brent Central (1/9) and Leeds East (1/6) but one could also mention Manchester, Withington (1/6) and Rhondda (5/6 - 4/6). I like Salford and Eccles (1/4). Somewhat off that topic, for beta seekers, you could consider Delyn (7/2).ThreeQuidder said:There is obviously nothing to talk about. Should I log off for the evening?
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I have explained to football fans who wondered why the area around Stamford Bridge looks rather rough that they weren't actually in Chelsea but instead where Arthur Daley used to wheel and deal.rcs1000 said:
That's not the kind of knowledge I'd admit knowing.another_richard said:I do believe that Stamford Bridge is actually in the borough of Hammersmith not Kensington.
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I've just donated to Labour's campaign to encourage registering to vote using Facebook.HaroldO said:
The adverts have been everywhere this election.calum said:100k a day registering to vote !
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/399872780 -
Preston?JamesM said:RCS1000, Your father will be cutting off communications with you for suggesting he supports Hull City FC :-)
He is a wise man and backs Lancashire's finest!0 -
If they don't get an HP, will it be Len over?dyedwoolie said:Labour need a 38 strategy to get a HP.
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It's very important to avoid letting Yougov's overpolling blind everyone to the real patterns.dyedwoolie said:I'm absolutely fascinated by the sudden pessimism in the Tory ranks. One poll has a 9 point lead, everything else points to large majority.
Also interesting how the doorsteps follow the mood music. Do they really? Or is it self affirming because those that want a swing to Labour bring up something not popular and the Tories don't?
Have single policies ever caused a 20 point turnaround? Ever? In any country?
I'm fairly convinced the polling will get worse for the blues and then better, but they really don't help themselves with some pretty lacklustre campaigning and politicking
The Tories are on 46-48 with eight of the ten pollsters (Ipsos 49, Yougov 44).
Labour are 33-35 with six out of ten, but 28-30 with the other four.
House effects are definitely in play.
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The more the two parties get above 80% between them, the likelier it is that small percentage leads generate big leads on seats.dyedwoolie said:
The blues need a 46/47 strategy. If they hit that figure she gets her 100 majority. Labour need a 38 strategy to get a HP.HYUFD said:
It is not so much the Tory share has fallen dramatically, 44% and 46% would still be the highest Tory voteshare for 47 years, just Labour is also up by squeezing the LDs and even UKIP, May needs to squeeze the Labour share down a bit too if she wants the 100+ majority. She can do it if Labour is on 31%/32% and she is on 46%/47%, she can't do it if she is on 44% and Labour is on 35%dyedwoolie said:I'm absolutely fascinated by the sudden pessimism in the Tory ranks. One poll has a 9 point lead, everything else points to large majority.
Also interesting how the doorsteps follow the mood music. Do they really? Or is it self affirming because those that want a swing to Labour bring up something not popular and the Tories don't?
Have single policies ever caused a 20 point turnaround? Ever? In any country?
I'm fairly convinced the polling will get worse for the blues and then better, but they really don't help themselves with some pretty lacklustre campaigning and politicking
I expect the blues to go very dirty for 2 weeks.0 -
You can add Rotherham at 3/10 to the list.EPG said:
You could stay for a discussion of Labour seats that are apparently value, now that the meltdown has been postponed. Highlighted on previous thread were Brent Central (1/9) and Leeds East (1/6) but one could also mention Manchester, Withington (1/6) and Rhondda (5/6 - 4/6). I like Salford and Eccles (1/4). Somewhat off that topic, for beta seekers, you could consider Delyn (7/2).ThreeQuidder said:There is obviously nothing to talk about. Should I log off for the evening?
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Especially if Labour's votes are becoming more inefficiently located as seems to be the case.Sean_F said:
The more the two parties get above 80% between them, the likelier it is that small percentage leads generate big leads on seats.dyedwoolie said:
The blues need a 46/47 strategy. If they hit that figure she gets her 100 majority. Labour need a 38 strategy to get a HP.HYUFD said:
It is not so much the Tory share has fallen dramatically, 44% and 46% would still be the highest Tory voteshare for 47 years, just Labour is also up by squeezing the LDs and even UKIP, May needs to squeeze the Labour share down a bit too if she wants the 100+ majority. She can do it if Labour is on 31%/32% and she is on 46%/47%, she can't do it if she is on 44% and Labour is on 35%dyedwoolie said:I'm absolutely fascinated by the sudden pessimism in the Tory ranks. One poll has a 9 point lead, everything else points to large majority.
Also interesting how the doorsteps follow the mood music. Do they really? Or is it self affirming because those that want a swing to Labour bring up something not popular and the Tories don't?
Have single policies ever caused a 20 point turnaround? Ever? In any country?
I'm fairly convinced the polling will get worse for the blues and then better, but they really don't help themselves with some pretty lacklustre campaigning and politicking
I expect the blues to go very dirty for 2 weeks.
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It would be interesting to know what proportion of people actually undertand what May's social care policy is.
Listening to a few radio news reports today it sounded as if you will only be left with £100k if you need care - ie you would only be allowed to keep £100k irrespective of how much care you need.
It didn't actuially say that if you have a £300k house you would only keep £100k if your care bill is £200k.
The above may sound blindingly obvious to people on here but not necessarily to someone just hearing brief news headlines.
So I suspect the biggest problem for May is that people are now fearing a far, far worse financial outcome than is remotely likely given their own actual circumstances.
And the above is before even considering that the existing position for residential care is even worse - again something most people won't have had a clue about.0 -
Can I just mention london's worst - Millwall fans.JamesM said:RCS1000, Your father will be cutting off communications with you for suggesting he supports Hull City FC :-)
He is a wise man and backs Lancashire's finest!0 -
They don't need to. It would feel a bit desperate, and would also invest Corbyn with (unmerited) martyr status. However, the Tories should play up the competence angle more - just incorporating the Abbott interview into an election broadcast would help. Those who've been attracted to some aspects of the Labour manifesto, and those many who are not very enthusiastic about TMay will start to think, 'Do I really want this bunch of talentless incompetents in charge of the country', and either sit on their hands, or grudgingly place a cross by the Tory.dyedwoolie said:
The blues need a 46/47 strategy. If they hit that figure she gets her 100 majority. Labour need a 38 strategy to get a HP.HYUFD said:
It is not so much the Tory share has fallen dramatically, 44% and 46% would still be the highest Tory voteshare for 47 years, just Labour is also up by squeezing the LDs and even UKIP, May needs to squeeze the Labour share down a bit too if she wants the 100+ majority. She can do it if Labour is on 31%/32% and she is on 46%/47%, she can't do it if she is on 44% and Labour is on 35%dyedwoolie said:I'm absolutely fascinated by the sudden pessimism in the Tory ranks. One poll has a 9 point lead, everything else points to large majority.
Also interesting how the doorsteps follow the mood music. Do they really? Or is it self affirming because those that want a swing to Labour bring up something not popular and the Tories don't?
Have single policies ever caused a 20 point turnaround? Ever? In any country?
I'm fairly convinced the polling will get worse for the blues and then better, but they really don't help themselves with some pretty lacklustre campaigning and politicking
I expect the blues to go very dirty for 2 weeks.0 -
Preston are, at best, the second team of Lancashire. The mighty clarets have their rightful place at the top of Lancashire football back!0
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They were in Wembley yesterday same time as me. Had no idea, would have taken refuge in Slough otherwise.Tykejohnno said:
Can I just mention london's worst - Millwall fans.JamesM said:RCS1000, Your father will be cutting off communications with you for suggesting he supports Hull City FC :-)
He is a wise man and backs Lancashire's finest!0 -
It's Tim Farron who says he doesn't like it up 'im!Cyan said:
So bilious, so coarse!Theuniondivvie said:I thought the PB Tories were all in favour of anecdotage. This has probably as much or as little veracity as some anonymous bloke telling us what another anonymous bloke said about Corbyn down the saloon bar.
A few folk telling similar stories on the phone-ins this week should keep the cluster fuck clustering.0 -
First class trolling. But its time we moved on from this.0
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They don't need to but they will. They are running a terrible campaign.ThomasNashe said:
They don't need to. It would feel a bit desperate, and would also invest Corbyn with (unmerited) martyr status. However, the Tories should play up the competence angle more - just incorporating the Abbott interview into an election broadcast would help. Those who've been attracted to some aspects of the Labour manifesto, and those many who are not very enthusiastic about TMay will start to think, 'Do I really want this bunch of talentless incompetents in charge of the country', and either sit on their hands, or grudgingly place a cross by the Tory.dyedwoolie said:
The blues need a 46/47 strategy. If they hit that figure she gets her 100 majority. Labour need a 38 strategy to get a HP.HYUFD said:
It is not so much the Tory share has fallen dramatically, 44% and 46% would still be the highest Tory voteshare for 47 years, just Labour is also up by squeezing the LDs and even UKIP, May needs to squeeze the Labour share down a bit too if she wants the 100+ majority. She can do it if Labour is on 31%/32% and she is on 46%/47%, she can't do it if she is on 44% and Labour is on 35%dyedwoolie said:I'm absolutely fascinated by the sudden pessimism in the Tory ranks. One poll has a 9 point lead, everything else points to large majority.
Also interesting how the doorsteps follow the mood music. Do they really? Or is it self affirming because those that want a swing to Labour bring up something not popular and the Tories don't?
Have single policies ever caused a 20 point turnaround? Ever? In any country?
I'm fairly convinced the polling will get worse for the blues and then better, but they really don't help themselves with some pretty lacklustre campaigning and politicking
I expect the blues to go very dirty for 2 weeks.0 -
This is why its wise to publicise these policies with plenty of time to explain and/or adjust the policy.MikeL said:It would be interesting to know what proportion of people actually undertand what May's social care policy is.
Listening to a few radio news reports today it sounded as if you will only be left with £100k if you need care - ie you would only be allowed to keep £100k irrespective of how much care you need.
It didn't actuially say that if you have a £300k house you would only keep £100k if your care bill is £200k.
The above may sound blindingly obvious to people on here but not necessarily to someone just hearing brief news headlines.
So I suspect the biggest problem for May is that people are now fearing a far, far worse financial outcome than is remotely likely given their own actual circumstances.
And the above is before even considering that the existing position for residential care is even worse - again something most people won't have had a clue about.
Perhaps they should have stipulated a maximum care charge of say £100k in addition to the £100k you are guaranteed to keep.-1 -
There would be little point winning with an undeliverable set of promises.JamesM said:FPT:
Afternoon all.
I am just back from Turf Moor after a weekend up north. Watching this messageboard over the weekend was reminiscent of every major campaign I have witnessed on politicalbetting.com, there is a wobble for the leading side in the campaign and key supporters of that side go a little over the top.
Now I am not an expert on the social care policy or social care infrastructure more generally. I am pleased a major party is considering the topic and I can see some positives and negatives in the Conservative plan. I do accept it has not been a narrative success for the party; anything that can be labelled a 'dementia tax' and this label not be laughed out of court as ridiculous is clearly a challenge for the party in question. Speaking to some older voters myself over the weekend they were bemused and not comfortable with the social care policy. That said I don't think it would wobble their support for the Conservatives. The WFA changes and triple lock changes were less of a concern, there was an acceptance the existing systems cannot continue indefinitely.
More generally on the polls this weekend we must remember:
- Polls are snapshots not predictions.
- On leadership, economic competence and Brexit the Conservatives lead on polling.
- There are three weeks to go campaigning, I cannot see issues with social care dominating the media for that time period. I imagine the Conservatives will discuss consultation on the wider details of the social care plan and this will assist them in managing the narrative.
- We seem to be on the verge of a return to two party politics. As such the gap between Conservatives/Labour is more important than their baseline voting figure. This gap has narrowed, but seemingly it is less a loss of Conservative support and more Labour gaining.
- Next the Conservatives are being critiqued, yet still have a vote percentage higher than Blair/Thatcher achieved. Also I think the 20 point lead at the start of the campaign was never going to be maintained. People were not thinking politics then, moreover the chance of a Tory landslide will solidify tribal voters who don't like the Conservatives. Moreover, however bad Corbyn is (and he is) how often do you get a 20 point gap in UK politics? Especially for a governing party, 7 years in power? Blair didn't get that beating a tired government of 18 years.
Ultimately, regardless of the majority Mrs May gains (and I think it will be considerably higher than she has now) she gains two more years to manage Brexit, a likely larger majority, can jettison unrealistic tax promises, and begin to change the party's political position. Not bad.
In short. Conservative supporters should keep calm and carry on.
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Yes and the EU publishing their Brexit plans tomorrow will allow May to play the nationalist card again and that will really squeeze UKIP down to the bone while perhaps winning 2-3% of Labour white working class voters over to the blues, that is all it would takedyedwoolie said:
The blues need a 46/47 strategy. If they hit that figure she gets her 100 majority. Labour need a 38 strategy to get a HP.HYUFD said:
It is not so much the Tory share has fallen dramatically, 44% and 46% would still be the highest Tory voteshare for 47 years, just Labour is also up by squeezing the LDs and even UKIP, May needs to squeeze the Labour share down a bit too if she wants the 100+ majority. She can do it if Labour is on 31%/32% and she is on 46%/47%, she can't do it if she is on 44% and Labour is on 35%dyedwoolie said:I'm absolutely fascinated by the sudden pessimism in the Tory ranks. One poll has a 9 point lead, everything else points to large majority.
Also interesting how the doorsteps follow the mood music. Do they really? Or is it self affirming because those that want a swing to Labour bring up something not popular and the Tories don't?
Have single policies ever caused a 20 point turnaround? Ever? In any country?
I'm fairly convinced the polling will get worse for the blues and then better, but they really don't help themselves with some pretty lacklustre campaigning and politicking
I expect the blues to go very dirty for 2 weeks.0 -
But its been so successful for Tim Farron.DavidL said:First class trolling. But its time we moved on from this.
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Look North showed a group of people getting homeless people in Leeds to register to vote, by giving the address of a hostel. Good on them. Even if you have lost almost everything, you haven't lost your democratic right to vote.Barnesian said:
I've just donated to Labour's campaign to encourage registering to vote using Facebook.HaroldO said:
The adverts have been everywhere this election.calum said:100k a day registering to vote !
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/399872780 -
Well that's why the Tories shouldn't have touched this (or WFA) in the middle of an election campaign.MikeL said:It would be interesting to know what proportion of people actually undertand what May's social care policy is.
Listening to a few radio news reports today it sounded as if you will only be left with £100k if you need care - ie you would only be allowed to keep £100k irrespective of how much care you need.
It didn't actuially say that if you have a £300k house you would only keep £100k if your care bill is £200k.
The above may sound blindingly obvious to people on here but not necessarily to someone just hearing brief news headlines.
So I suspect the biggest problem for May is that people are now fearing a far, far worse financial outcome than is remotely likely given their own actual circumstances.
And the above is before even considering that the existing position for residential care is even worse - again something most people won't have had a clue about.
People will ALWAYS fear the worst with policies like this. Doesn't matter how much you reassure when it comes to taking things away from people (especially their homes) it's always going to be a nightmare to explain.
They should've just said something "wishy washy" about a royal commission and consultation on the social care crisis with implementation in 18 months and left it that...
I suspect arrogance and complanceny has caused most of this. They thought because their lead is so large and Jezza is LOTO the normal rules of politics don't apply.0 -
There's a very good line chart out there which shows this rather better. Points in y axis and percentage leave on x axis0
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"Journalists drink too much, are bad at managing emotions, and operate at a lower level than average, according to a new study
Journalists' brains show a lower-than-average level of executive functioning, according to a new study, which means they have a below-average ability to regulate their emotions, suppress biases, solve complex problems, switch between tasks, and show creative and flexible thinking.
http://www.businessinsider.com/journalists-brains-function-at-a-lower-level-than-average-2017-50 -
There is also a result which goes something like this: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/resultsScrapheap_as_was said:There's a very good line chart out there which shows this rather better. Points in y axis and percentage leave on x axis
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Im loving the panic attacks from PB tories over the manifesto.
May is going to win on the promise of statist social democratic economic policies. Your kids inheritance is going to be raided. And - other than Tax exile- you have nowhere to go.
Now you all know how it feels to be in an elite out of touch minority!
Suck it up!0 -
I was at the match and I only had this threatening experience was against leedsnunu said:
They were in Wembley yesterday same time as me. Had no idea, would have taken refuge in Slough otherwise.Tykejohnno said:
Can I just mention london's worst - Millwall fans.JamesM said:RCS1000, Your father will be cutting off communications with you for suggesting he supports Hull City FC :-)
He is a wise man and backs Lancashire's finest!
Pathetic fans who love frightening women and children..0 -
And this is why Boris Johnson and Michael Gove make such catastrophically bad politicians. Cameron should never have sponsored their political careers.GeoffM said:"Journalists drink too much, are bad at managing emotions, and operate at a lower level than average, according to a new study
Journalists' brains show a lower-than-average level of executive functioning, according to a new study, which means they have a below-average ability to regulate their emotions, suppress biases, solve complex problems, switch between tasks, and show creative and flexible thinking.
http://www.businessinsider.com/journalists-brains-function-at-a-lower-level-than-average-2017-50 -
Have posted on the last thread but will say this again. Is the policy for social care per person or per couple. If you have a couple who own a house worth £190K quite possible outside the south. Do they spilt the value per person so if one person needs social care their assets are less than£100K enabling them to free care In our case if one of us heaven forbid has to go into a home because of dementia instead of the fees kicking in at £23500 it would be £100K I know what I would prefer. Sorry for the double post0
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Interesting correlation!!Scott_P said:
It's just like educational attainment and the Leave/Remain vote (also a decent correlation).
Leave voters = thick sh*ts!
Remain voters = clever folk.0 -
I think we need to split pb Tory in to 2 subsets, those who enjoy the wobbly nerves and panic adrenaline with those who enjoy watching their wobbly colleagues behaving in a wobbly manner.0
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BBC most read, now: 1. General election 2017: Corbyn pressed over IRA comments
9. General election 2017: Tories 'won't look again' at social care plans
Sophy Ridge of Sky News appears to be the heroine of the hour (asking the Jezziah SIX TIMES to renounce the IRA and all its works).0 -
That's brilliant. We all know it here, but let's tell everyone we can to register to vote, a good turnout isngood for democracy, and this year is looking like it will be lower than 2015 and a lot lower than for the EU referendum last year.SandyRentool said:
Look North showed a group of people getting homeless people in Leeds to register to vote, by giving the address of a hostel. Good on them. Even if you have lost almost everything, you haven't lost your democratic right to vote.Barnesian said:
I've just donated to Labour's campaign to encourage registering to vote using Facebook.HaroldO said:
The adverts have been everywhere this election.calum said:100k a day registering to vote !
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/39987278
A funny take on the subject:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=DXWdJtInOj00 -
I was thinking of the entire BBC but if you think that naming two politicians who have reached the higher tiers of Govt makes a point then crack on.williamglenn said:
And this is why Boris Johnson and Michael Gove make such catastrophically bad politicians. Cameron should never have sponsored their political careers.GeoffM said:"Journalists drink too much, are bad at managing emotions, and operate at a lower level than average, according to a new study
Journalists' brains show a lower-than-average level of executive functioning, according to a new study, which means they have a below-average ability to regulate their emotions, suppress biases, solve complex problems, switch between tasks, and show creative and flexible thinking.
http://www.businessinsider.com/journalists-brains-function-at-a-lower-level-than-average-2017-50 -
my MP's billboards say as much.Daveyboy1961 said:I notice in Reading West according to Rob Wilson's Tory posters he is standing with Theresa May! Since when did we get multi-member constituencies back?
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What the hell is David Cockburn and that prat Patrick Harvey doing in the Scottish leaders debate when they have opted out from this election?
Almost switching off already.0 -
All of Scotland voted Remain and their football teams are shite.0
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Nice one. Tories so far back that it would take a UKIP gain. For similarly weedy bets on Tories, it looks like one has to believe that the Lib Dems are dead ducks. I just can't see them gaining, say, Montgomeryshire, but at prices like 1/9 I would like more certainty than that!another_richard said:
You can add Rotherham at 3/10 to the list.EPG said:
You could stay for a discussion of Labour seats that are apparently value, now that the meltdown has been postponed. Highlighted on previous thread were Brent Central (1/9) and Leeds East (1/6) but one could also mention Manchester, Withington (1/6) and Rhondda (5/6 - 4/6). I like Salford and Eccles (1/4). Somewhat off that topic, for beta seekers, you could consider Delyn (7/2).ThreeQuidder said:There is obviously nothing to talk about. Should I log off for the evening?
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Is there a correlation with frantic use of Twitter?GeoffM said:"Journalists drink too much, are bad at managing emotions, and operate at a lower level than average, according to a new study
Journalists' brains show a lower-than-average level of executive functioning, according to a new study, which means they have a below-average ability to regulate their emotions, suppress biases, solve complex problems, switch between tasks, and show creative and flexible thinking.
http://www.businessinsider.com/journalists-brains-function-at-a-lower-level-than-average-2017-50 -
If you think the BBC are bad, just imagine putting Andrew Marr and Evan Davis in the Cabinet. The point is simply that journalism is not a good breeding ground for high-level politicians.GeoffM said:
I was thinking of the entire BBC but if you think that naming two politicians who have reached the higher tiers of Govt makes a point then crack on.williamglenn said:
And this is why Boris Johnson and Michael Gove make such catastrophically bad politicians. Cameron should never have sponsored their political careers.GeoffM said:"Journalists drink too much, are bad at managing emotions, and operate at a lower level than average, according to a new study
Journalists' brains show a lower-than-average level of executive functioning, according to a new study, which means they have a below-average ability to regulate their emotions, suppress biases, solve complex problems, switch between tasks, and show creative and flexible thinking.
http://www.businessinsider.com/journalists-brains-function-at-a-lower-level-than-average-2017-50 -
Alternatively Theresa could be lying to win Lab votes and when she's got her 150 seat majority she'll revert to type and bring back the "Work House" ?nielh said:Im loving the panic attacks from PB tories over the manifesto.
May is going to win on the promise of statist social democratic economic policies. Your kids inheritance is going to be raided. And - other than Tax exile- you have nowhere to go.
Now you all know how it feels to be in an elite out of touch minority!
Suck it up! 0 -
There is not a single leader in this debate that is actually standing for these elections.0
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Tonight's Scotland debate would make for a good drinking game based on how often we hear "Tories!"0
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I take it that the headless chicken posturing over social care is continuing? Of course it is.nielh said:Im loving the panic attacks from PB tories over the manifesto.
May is going to win on the promise of statist social democratic economic policies. Your kids inheritance is going to be raided. And - other than Tax exile- you have nowhere to go.
Now you all know how it feels to be in an elite out of touch minority!
Suck it up!
In fairness, I've done a wee bit of that myself - before the logical brain gained the ascendancy over the lizard brain and common sense reasserted itself. Not because I thought it was too Left - I'm quite receptive to some Left ideas about housing, for example - but because I worried that it might do huge damage to the Tories, whom I'm keen on this time particularly because I want Corbyn and friends kept as far away from power as possible. Having considered, amongst other things, the basic point that you just made - i.e. that the wealthy really have nowhere else to go - I am now feeling a bit calmer again.
Nothing much down thread apart from more about social care, and football. Football. Yawn. Time for dinner methinks.0 -
Politics is always dirty. The hatred aimed at the leader of the opposition hasn't been at this level since Foot in 1983. Corbyn is getting much more than Kinnock received in 1992, and I think he is even getting more than Foot did in 1983, which perhaps isn't surprising given that Foot was a former president of the Oxford Union.ThomasNashe said:
They don't need to. It would feel a bit desperate, and would also invest Corbyn with (unmerited) martyr status.dyedwoolie said:I expect the blues to go very dirty for 2 weeks.
As Private Eye puts it, Tory policies as they are framed for many markets are essentially "Foreign relations: Jeremy Corbyn is Lab leader; Domestic policy: Jeremy Corbyn is Lab leader; Defence: Jeremy Corbyn is Lab leader; Economy: Jeremy Corbyn is Lab leader".
Has any party ever won a British general election because its leader achieved martyr status? I doubt that Tory strategists are scared even a little bit that Labour may be able to turn anti-Corbyn hate month to their advantage. It's bare the fangs and "Kill kill kill for the queen" time.
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GIN!!! You aren't supposed to say that.GIN1138 said:
Alternatively Theresa could be lying to win Lab votes and when she's got her 150 seat majority she'll revert to type and bring back the "Work House" ?nielh said:Im loving the panic attacks from PB tories over the manifesto.
May is going to win on the promise of statist social democratic economic policies. Your kids inheritance is going to be raided. And - other than Tax exile- you have nowhere to go.
Now you all know how it feels to be in an elite out of touch minority!
Suck it up!0 -
I'm curious as to whether anyone would disagree with the proposition of 'vote Corbyn, get IMF'?
I thought that becoming an IMF puppet was likely if EdM had succeeded, but I don't think that there's even the slightest question about a possible Corbyn government - they may as well just call in the IMF from day one.
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Anyone have any useful suggestions for what I can do with all these unwanted "Pull Out And Keep Souvenir Guides" for Pippa's bloody wedding that were in the papers today?0
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williamglenn said:
If you think the BBC are bad, just imagine putting Andrew Marr and Evan Davis in the Cabinet. The point is simply that journalism is not a good breeding ground for high-level politicians.GeoffM said:
I was thinking of the entire BBC but if you think that naming two politicians who have reached the higher tiers of Govt makes a point then crack on.williamglenn said:
And this is why Boris Johnson and Michael Gove make such catastrophically bad politicians. Cameron should never have sponsored their political careers.GeoffM said:"Journalists drink too much, are bad at managing emotions, and operate at a lower level than average, according to a new study
Journalists' brains show a lower-than-average level of executive functioning, according to a new study, which means they have a below-average ability to regulate their emotions, suppress biases, solve complex problems, switch between tasks, and show creative and flexible thinking.
http://www.businessinsider.com/journalists-brains-function-at-a-lower-level-than-average-2017-5
Actually not sure which are worse in the evolutionary tree. Some journos are scum.
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Why do you want them kept out so much? Surely something to do with the rich not being able to keep everything they've got? Or am I wrong?Black_Rook said:
I take it that the headless chicken posturing over social care is continuing? Of course it is.nielh said:Im loving the panic attacks from PB tories over the manifesto.
May is going to win on the promise of statist social democratic economic policies. Your kids inheritance is going to be raided. And - other than Tax exile- you have nowhere to go.
Now you all know how it feels to be in an elite out of touch minority!
Suck it up!
In fairness, I've done a wee bit of that myself - before the logical brain gained the ascendancy over the lizard brain and common sense reasserted itself. Not because I thought it was too Left - I'm quite receptive to some Left ideas about housing, for example - but because I worried that it might do huge damage to the Tories, whom I'm keen on this time particularly because I want Corbyn and friends kept as far away from power as possible.
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I agree entirely.GIN1138 said:
Well that's why the Tories shouldn't have touched this (or WFA) in the middle of an election campaign.MikeL said:It would be interesting to know what proportion of people actually undertand what May's social care policy is.
Listening to a few radio news reports today it sounded as if you will only be left with £100k if you need care - ie you would only be allowed to keep £100k irrespective of how much care you need.
It didn't actuially say that if you have a £300k house you would only keep £100k if your care bill is £200k.
The above may sound blindingly obvious to people on here but not necessarily to someone just hearing brief news headlines.
So I suspect the biggest problem for May is that people are now fearing a far, far worse financial outcome than is remotely likely given their own actual circumstances.
And the above is before even considering that the existing position for residential care is even worse - again something most people won't have had a clue about.
People will ALWAYS fear the worst with policies like this. Doesn't matter how much you reassure when it comes to taking things away from people (especially their homes) it's always going to be a nightmare to explain.
They should've just said something "wishy washy" about a royal commission and consultation on the social care crisis with implementation in 18 months and left it that...
I suspect arrogance and complanceny has caused most of this. They thought because their lead is so large and Jezza is LOTO the normal rules of politics don't apply.
Whilst lots of people on here seem to think it's all a great laugh I think it's at least possible that this could get very serious for the Conservatives indeed.
All the talk about Con getting a majority of 100 or 150 and winning seats like Bolsover - well a Con Majority of any kind is now available at 1.11 on Betfair.
We are now in a position where large numbers of people are thinking they may lose the majority of their inheritance and they are going to be scared stiff.
The fact they are completely mistaken - because there is literally almost zero chance of in-home care costs running into hundreds of thousands of pounds - is completely irrelevant.
People have now got it into their heads and once someone thinks something they keep thinking it.0 -
The cats out of the bag?RobD said:
GIN!!! You aren't supposed to say that.GIN1138 said:
Alternatively Theresa could be lying to win Lab votes and when she's got her 150 seat majority she'll revert to type and bring back the "Work House" ?nielh said:Im loving the panic attacks from PB tories over the manifesto.
May is going to win on the promise of statist social democratic economic policies. Your kids inheritance is going to be raided. And - other than Tax exile- you have nowhere to go.
Now you all know how it feels to be in an elite out of touch minority!
Suck it up!
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You'll be overjoyed to hear that Harvie is standing in Glasgow North. I hope your respect for him will now be suitably increased.DavidL said:There is not a single leader in this debate that is actually standing for these elections.
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A green standing? That's a novelty.Theuniondivvie said:
You'll be overjoyed to hear that Harvie is standing in Glasgow North. I hope your respect for him will now be suitably increased.DavidL said:There is not a single leader in this debate that is actually standing for these elections.
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Cameron spilled the beans when he announced a reform of the prisons, declaring that prisoners aren't a liability but an asset.RobD said:
GIN!!! You aren't supposed to say that.GIN1138 said:
Alternatively Theresa could be lying to win Lab votes and when she's got her 150 seat majority she'll revert to type and bring back the "Work House" ?nielh said:Im loving the panic attacks from PB tories over the manifesto.
May is going to win on the promise of statist social democratic economic policies. Your kids inheritance is going to be raided. And - other than Tax exile- you have nowhere to go.
Now you all know how it feels to be in an elite out of touch minority!
Suck it up!0 -
I've known that for most of my life.nielh said:Im loving the panic attacks from PB tories over the manifesto.
May is going to win on the promise of statist social democratic economic policies. Your kids inheritance is going to be raided. And - other than Tax exile- you have nowhere to go.
Now you all know how it feels to be in an elite out of touch minority!
Suck it up!
I'd love the UK to push through massive cuts in public spending and tax, and regulation.
But, I accept the British people are entitled to opt for May's soft social democracy, if that's what they prefer.0 -
You're right. But there was an interesting idea in an Iain M Banks novel where the head of an enemy was kept alive as a punching bag and given high recovery value. The owner of the head went mad rapidly but the head remained for more punishment. Every time I think of that head I think of Patrick Harvie. Just perfect for the role.Theuniondivvie said:
You'll be overjoyed to hear that Harvie is standing in Glasgow North. I hope your respect for him will now be suitably increased.DavidL said:There is not a single leader in this debate that is actually standing for these elections.
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My partner, she's raging about Arsenal's fifth place. But at least with Spurs & Crystal Palace they can claim (what's the opposite of provincial ?)ism.0
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A very good question and it may well be nobody knows the answer.dawn21 said:Have posted on the last thread but will say this again. Is the policy for social care per person or per couple. If you have a couple who own a house worth £190K quite possible outside the south. Do they spilt the value per person so if one person needs social care their assets are less than£100K enabling them to free care In our case if one of us heaven forbid has to go into a home because of dementia instead of the fees kicking in at £23500 it would be £100K I know what I would prefer. Sorry for the double post
Indeed there may not be an answer (as of now) - because the Con manifesto may not be clear on the issue.
If so, it would be further confirmation of how absurd a situation May has got herself into.0
