Being able to set an alarm with one sentence when you're shagged out and flopping into bed, and can't be bothered to faff about with clocks or gadgets, is almost worth it in itself. The assistant responds warmly, and soothingly. It cocoons you, then wakes you, with your favourite music. It says Hello. And that is one in about a million applications.
What on God's f***king earth do you want that crap for? Don't you like being human?
You could have written much the same around 2005 or earlier about smartphones. There were people like me with smartphones, and PDAs before that, but we were few and far between. Then came the iPhone and Android and everything changed.
Yeah, I had one around 2004 iirc (an MDA Compact), and was on the internet in 1993 - saw the potential a long way ahead. Assistants are just shite though.
"RBC Capital Markets analyst Mark Mahaney thinks Alexa could be the next big thing for Amazon, potentially generating $10 billion in revenue by as soon as 2020."
Massive.
"Potentially"
Get one. Try it. The sensation is like handling an early smartphone, or the first iPad, or even the first decent laptop. It's clumsy and glitchy and flawed, but above it all is a surging, melting feeling of OMGYES.
Of COURSE this is how we will interact with computers in the future. We will just talk to them, and tell them to organise our homes and lives. Amazon are the first in, and will reap rewards. Note in this piece that Apple are belatedly trying to catch up, but Amazon are already innovating further
"I believe that the Echo Show will become one of Amazon’s most successful Echo devices and at some point the most successful product Amazon has ever produced. Just last holiday season, the Echo Dot broke all sales records at Amazon. This demand will continue and expand as Moore’s Law pushes the retail price to $99 or lower in the next year."
Google showed on some very cool tech at I/O a few days ago. Google Home is way way "smarter" than Amazon, including shortly being able to preempt things e.g. It looks at your schedule, monitors the traffic, realises the traffic is bad, so call out to you that you need to leave x minutes early i.e. now.
That already happens on my iPhone through Google Maps. It can be handy, although it assumes I drive everywhere.
It's useless in London for that very reason. It's frequently quicker to walk to a meeting than drive (take a cab). Still a very long way to go until talking computers are anything more than just gimmickry.
They're already beyond gimmickry. They just *feel* right. It's basically HAL from Kubrick's 2001, only better. It's one of those moments - like mobile phones - when the future just arrives, suddenly, in your hand and in your home.
Being able to set an alarm with one sentence when you're shagged out and flopping into bed, and can't be bothered to faff about with clocks or gadgets, is almost worth it in itself. The assistant responds warmly, and soothingly. It cocoons you, then wakes you, with your favourite music. It says Hello. And that is one in about a million applications.
Another point: these things are relatively cheap (and will only get cheaper). It's not £800 for a new iPad or £1900 for a Macbook, it's £129 for Google Home. Most people will be able to afford them.
I hope Nick Timothy and Theresa May are feeling proud of themselves, as they look at these polls.
MORONS.
The lead has been halved without any squeeze on the Lib Dem vote. It could get worse for them.
Yep. As I have said, if Labour now dialled back on some of the mad leftwing shit, and dog whistled Remainers with a promise to stay in the Single Market, they could actually end up as biggest party.
I don't think they will. I reckon TMay will grind out a decent-ish majority.
But it should have been a landslide which rescued Labour from itself and cemented rightwing politics in power til 2030. She is a dull piece of work.
LOL, even in my most optimistic moods, there is not a cat's chance in hell of Labour being the largest party.
I do think though there's a decent chance of Labour holding up above 200 seats, and keeping the Tory majority to "only" about 50. Still a lot of variables in it, though. A poor result for Labour, but one which will ensure they live to fight another day.
Google showed on some very cool tech at I/O a few days ago. Google Home is way way "smarter" than Amazon, including shortly being able to preempt things e.g. It looks at your schedule, monitors the traffic, realises the traffic is bad, so call out to you that you need to leave x minutes early i.e. now.
That already happens on my iPhone through Google Maps. It can be handy, although it assumes I drive everywhere.
It's useless in London for that very reason. It's frequently quicker to walk to a meeting than drive (take a cab). Still a very long way to go until talking computers are anything more than just gimmickry.
They're already beyond gimmickry. They just *feel* right. It's basically HAL from Kubrick's 2001, only better. It's one of those moments - like mobile phones - when the future just arrives, suddenly, in your hand and in your home.
Being able to set an alarm with one sentence when you're shagged out and flopping into bed, and can't be bothered to faff about with clocks or gadgets, is almost worth it in itself. The assistant responds warmly, and soothingly. It cocoons you, then wakes you, with your favourite music. It says Hello. And that is one in about a million applications.
Another point: these things are relatively cheap (and will only get cheaper). It's not £800 for a new iPad or £1900 for a Macbook, it's £129 for Google Home. Most people will be able to afford them.
Ask Alexa to "open the bay doors".
lol! Just did it. Tastic.
If you combine an Alexa with some smart home gear, it'll blow your mind. "Alexa, turn all the lights off". "Alexa, set the thermostat to 19 degrees." Etc...
My worry is the trend. Labour will be feeling they have a real chance now. They can energise voters who thought the cause was hopeless.
If they have the nous. May and Johnson look like juicy targets, I'd have thought. I wonder sometimes how much Corbyn has learnt from so many decades of campaigning. Has he read Alinsky? Always personalise. Always provoke.
I hope Nick Timothy and Theresa May are feeling proud of themselves, as they look at these polls.
MORONS.
The lead has been halved without any squeeze on the Lib Dem vote. It could get worse for them.
Yep. As I have said, if Labour now dialled back on some of the mad leftwing shit, and dog whistled Remainers with a promise to stay in the Single Market, they could actually end up as biggest party.
I don't think they will. I reckon TMay will grind out a decent-ish majority.
But it should have been a landslide which rescued Labour from itself and cemented rightwing politics in power til 2030. She is a dull piece of work.
LOL, even in my most optimistic moods, there is not a cat's chance in hell of Labour being the largest party.
I do think though there's a decent chance of Labour holding up above 200 seats, and keeping the Tory majority to "only" about 50. Still a lot of variables in it, though. A poor result for Labour, but one which will ensure they live to fight another day.
Interesting nuggets: Labour seen as the best party for older people and pensioners (by 37-26); although the Tories are still well ahead in the 65+ group (53-24) that's a bit less than before. The Tory turnout figures are slightly higher (withoiut that the lead is a point or two lower). And people report seeing loads of stuff on social media - 40% from both major parties and even 15% from UKIP. I guess that may include mates talking to each other?
I hope Nick Timothy and Theresa May are feeling proud of themselves, as they look at these polls.
MORONS.
Baxtered that gives a Con Majority of just 52.
Ouch.
Perilously close to Hung Parliament territory. FFS. Against Corbyn??!! She could actually lose her majority altogether.
She is a clueless twat, Nick Timothy is a raging fuckwit. I am sure there will be some righteously angry people in CCHQ, at this moment, and who can blame them. Let's hope they sort it out.
My worry is the trend. Labour will be feeling they have a real chance now. They can energise voters who thought the cause was hopeless. Momentum is a vital thing for hopeless causes, we saw it in Trump, Brexit and indyref.
Jeezo.
It's coming down to this:
Corbyn has given people ample reasons to vote for him. Trains, tuition fees, magic money trees. And hope. He's giving people who've seen their living standards decline year on year hope that something, somewhere, will change.
May has offered nothing more than dull grey managerialism. John Major's second-hand Y fronts. The Conservative Manifesto, apart from appearing to tax old grannies to death, offered no hope, no positive vision of Britain, nothing to vote FOR.
And for that reason, Corbyn and Labour have all the momentum now.
It's a 52 seat majority now, but it could easily be hung parliament territory in three weeks.
Also worth saying the regional subsamples are looking much healthier for Labour in the recent polls. Survation has their lead in the North at 8%, which is similar to 2015, and their deficit in the Midlands at 14%, again similar to 2015 - but both a marked improvement on polls earlier in the campaign which showed huge swings from 2015 in those places. That will help them save seats.
Also gives a 19% Labour lead in Wales(!!), but that's probably an outlier.
I hope Nick Timothy and Theresa May are feeling proud of themselves, as they look at these polls.
MORONS.
The lead has been halved without any squeeze on the Lib Dem vote. It could get worse for them.
Yep. As I have said, if Labour now dialled back on some of the mad leftwing shit, and dog whistled Remainers with a promise to stay in the Single Market, they could actually end up as biggest party.
I don't think they will. I reckon TMay will grind out a decent-ish majority.
But it should have been a landslide which rescued Labour from itself and cemented rightwing politics in power til 2030. She is a dull piece of work.
LOL, even in my most optimistic moods, there is not a cat's chance in hell of Labour being the largest party.
I do think though there's a decent chance of Labour holding up above 200 seats, and keeping the Tory majority to "only" about 50. Still a lot of variables in it, though. A poor result for Labour, but one which will ensure they live to fight another day.
Don't underestimate JC
Indeed. But my jury's still out on whether or not Seumas is a funny. I've looked at his background, and I don't like either how he walks along corridors or the absence of any story about his getting thrown out of anywhere. That snow on his boots could have been artificial for a long time.
I hope Nick Timothy and Theresa May are feeling proud of themselves, as they look at these polls.
MORONS.
The lead has been halved without any squeeze on the Lib Dem vote. It could get worse for them.
Yep. As I have said, if Labour now dialled back on some of the mad leftwing shit, and dog whistled Remainers with a promise to stay in the Single Market, they could actually end up as biggest party.
I don't think they will. I reckon TMay will grind out a decent-ish majority.
But it should have been a landslide which rescued Labour from itself and cemented rightwing politics in power til 2030. She is a dull piece of work.
LOL, even in my most optimistic moods, there is not a cat's chance in hell of Labour being the largest party.
I do think though there's a decent chance of Labour holding up above 200 seats, and keeping the Tory majority to "only" about 50. Still a lot of variables in it, though. A poor result for Labour, but one which will ensure they live to fight another day.
I dunno. Even the Express has turned against her. Yes. The Daily Express: it has turned on Mrs Battleaxe Brexit herself.
I hope Nick Timothy and Theresa May are feeling proud of themselves, as they look at these polls.
MORONS.
Baxtered that gives a Con Majority of just 52.
Ouch.
Perilously close to Hung Parliament territory. FFS. Against Corbyn??!! She could actually lose her majority altogether.
She is a clueless twat, Nick Timothy is a raging fuckwit. I am sure there will be some righteously angry people in CCHQ, at this moment, and who can blame them. Let's hope they sort it out.
My worry is the trend. Labour will be feeling they have a real chance now. They can energise voters who thought the cause was hopeless. Momentum is a vital thing for hopeless causes, we saw it in Trump, Brexit and indyref.
Jeezo.
It's coming down to this:
Corbyn has given people ample reasons to vote for him. Trains, tuition fees, magic money trees. And hope. He's giving people who've seen their living standards decline year on year hope that something, somewhere, will change.
May has offered nothing more than dull grey managerialism. John Major's second-hand Y fronts. The Conservative Manifesto, apart from appearing to tax old grannies to death, offered no hope, no positive vision of Britain, nothing to vote FOR.
And for that reason, Corbyn and Labour have all the momentum now.
It's a 52 seat majority now, but it could easily be hung parliament territory in three weeks.
Yes it could. It's hope, and time for a change because things have got a lot worse in the country in seven years of Tory government, versus Corbyn said some crap about the IRA in the 1980s. A fair proportion of the electorate probably don't even know who the IRA were.
I hope Nick Timothy and Theresa May are feeling proud of themselves, as they look at these polls.
MORONS.
Baxtered that gives a Con Majority of just 52.
Ouch.
Perilously close to Hung Parliament territory. FFS. Against Corbyn??!! She could actually lose her majority altogether.
She is a clueless twat, Nick Timothy is a raging fuckwit. I am sure there will be some righteously angry people in CCHQ, at this moment, and who can blame them. Let's hope they sort it out.
My worry is the trend. Labour will be feeling they have a real chance now. They can energise voters who thought the cause was hopeless. Momentum is a vital thing for hopeless causes, we saw it in Trump, Brexit and indyref.
Jeezo.
the IRA stuff is starting to get mainstream attention . Corbyn is toxic that is what will finish labour in the long run. In a way the tightening of the polls will make more people turn out for the Tories for fear of a labour Corbyn government. Crosby will unleash all the forces of hell on Corbyn over the next three weeks I expect the tory lead to increase and get swing back before polling day I don't think Labour will get over 30% when people actually put the pencil on the voting slip or if they do get over 30% they will be piling up boats in the wrong places. I agree with Sean T that the social care announcement was an unforced error that could have been avoided but we are where we are Tories have to hold firm on this commitment or they will look weak at this point post manifesto they may be able to get away with some kind of clarification to alleviate peoples fears but a u turn would probably cause more damage at this stage, but I still expect Theresa May to get a stonking majority on June 8 but who knows with Trump and Brexit anything can happen I guess !
I hope Nick Timothy and Theresa May are feeling proud of themselves, as they look at these polls.
MORONS.
The lead has been halved without any squeeze on the Lib Dem vote. It could get worse for them.
Yep. As I have said, if Labour now dialled back on some of the mad leftwing shit, and dog whistled Remainers with a promise to stay in the Single Market, they could actually end up as biggest party.
I don't think they will. I reckon TMay will grind out a decent-ish majority.
But it should have been a landslide which rescued Labour from itself and cemented rightwing politics in power til 2030. She is a dull piece of work.
LOL, even in my most optimistic moods, there is not a cat's chance in hell of Labour being the largest party.
I do think though there's a decent chance of Labour holding up above 200 seats, and keeping the Tory majority to "only" about 50. Still a lot of variables in it, though. A poor result for Labour, but one which will ensure they live to fight another day.
I dunno. Even the Express has turned against her. Yes. The Daily Express: it has turned on Mrs Battleaxe Brexit herself.
I hope Nick Timothy and Theresa May are feeling proud of themselves, as they look at these polls.
MORONS.
Baxtered that gives a Con Majority of just 52.
Ouch.
Perilously close to Hung Parliament territory. FFS. Against Corbyn??!! She could actually lose her majority altogether.
She is a clueless twat, Nick Timothy is a raging fuckwit. I am sure there will be some righteously angry people in CCHQ, at this moment, and who can blame them. Let's hope they sort it out.
My worry is the trend. Labour will be feeling they have a real chance now. They can energise voters who thought the cause was hopeless. Momentum is a vital thing for hopeless causes, we saw it in Trump, Brexit and indyref.
Jeezo.
43% is still more than Thatcher got in 1983 and 1987 and more than Cameron and Major ever got and 34% is no better than Kinnock got in 1992 and this is the worst moment of the campaign, tomorrow the EU produces its Brexit plans which will be completely uncompromising, May will roll out the 'Battling for Britain against Juncker' card and we are back to Brexit again and she could well be able to get 2-3% back from Labour on that
What has Nick Timothy done with his life prior to producing this document. Some real world experience ?
Mostly been a SPAD to Theresa May and written short biographies about his political inspiration, Joseph Chamberlain.
Perhaps it is time for people with half a clue about the real world to take a look at strategy and manifestoes. I think I actually floated the 100k asset idea here on pb, but realised it would be a bit err "courageous" to actually stick it in a manifesto particularly before an election. "Green paper, all party consultation, reform." was what the manifesto needed. I hope Lynton lobs a laptop at Nick.
If Labour do somehow 'win' they wont be able to govern. Not after the vote of confidence and candidates distancing themselves on the doorsteps. Surely it would be rebellion after rebellion?
I hope Nick Timothy and Theresa May are feeling proud of themselves, as they look at these polls.
MORONS.
The lead has been halved without any squeeze on the Lib Dem vote. It could get worse for them.
Yep. As I have said, if Labour now dialled back on some of the mad leftwing shit, and dog whistled Remainers with a promise to stay in the Single Market, they could actually end up as biggest party.
I don't think they will. I reckon TMay will grind out a decent-ish majority.
But it should have been a landslide which rescued Labour from itself and cemented rightwing politics in power til 2030. She is a dull piece of work.
LOL, even in my most optimistic moods, there is not a cat's chance in hell of Labour being the largest party.
I do think though there's a decent chance of Labour holding up above 200 seats, and keeping the Tory majority to "only" about 50. Still a lot of variables in it, though. A poor result for Labour, but one which will ensure they live to fight another day.
I dunno. Even the Express has turned against her. Yes. The Daily Express: it has turned on Mrs Battleaxe Brexit herself.
This is Osborne's inheritance tax plan poll surge of 2007 in reverse.
If the Express has turned against her she risks losing the Kipper voters who fell in behind her over Brexit.
We are back to Brexit tomorrow, the EU is publishing its Brexit negotiations blueprint, May now needs to go full Boudicca and let Crosby smash Corbyn for the remainder of the campaign, if all this row has done is taken the Tories down to 43 or 44% it could have been a lot worse
The suggestion that Thatcher and Blair failed to match the 44% share given to the Tories in the latest Yougov poll is false. This is a GB poll , and on the same basis Thatcher won 44.7% in 1979 and Blair managed 44% in 1997.
I agree with most of the negativity here re Corbyn. But specifically on Brexit, which is what will be the dominant thing for the next parliament, I think Corbyn could do a better job than May. That's because he would probably delegate it to people in his party who somewhat know what they are doing.
That's probably true. Can you imagine trying to cut a deal with May? Stubborn, small-minded, self-important and nit-picky - not the type to have around the table with our continental friends.
I'm a very, very long way from being a fan of May, but I suspect she might prove quite an effective negotiator. What her priorities for negotiation might be is quite another matter.
Corbyn ? Just no.
Corbyn would delegate (I hope!). Not that he has any chance of winning anyway!
To someone far better than May.
Keri Starmer
I reckon Ed Miliband would beat Mrs May in a general election.
Wrong Yougov today had Cooper and Umunna losing by a slightly larger margin to May than Corbyn and Khan lost to May by exactly the same margin as Corbyn
I hope Nick Timothy and Theresa May are feeling proud of themselves, as they look at these polls.
MORONS.
The lead has been halved without any squeeze on the Lib Dem vote. It could get worse for them.
Yep. As I have said, if Labour now dialled back on some of the mad leftwing shit, and dog whistled Remainers with a promise to stay in the Single Market, they could actually end up as biggest party.
I don't think they will. I reckon TMay will grind out a decent-ish majority.
But it should have been a landslide which rescued Labour from itself and cemented rightwing politics in power til 2030. She is a dull piece of work.
LOL, even in my most optimistic moods, there is not a cat's chance in hell of Labour being the largest party.
I do think though there's a decent chance of Labour holding up above 200 seats, and keeping the Tory majority to "only" about 50. Still a lot of variables in it, though. A poor result for Labour, but one which will ensure they live to fight another day.
I dunno. Even the Express has turned against her. Yes. The Daily Express: it has turned on Mrs Battleaxe Brexit herself.
This is Osborne's inheritance tax plan poll surge of 2007 in reverse.
If the Express has turned against her she risks losing the Kipper voters who fell in behind her over Brexit.
We are back to Brexit tomorrow, the EU is publishing its Brexit negotiations blueprint, May now needs to go full Boudicca and let Crosby smash Corbyn for the remainder of the campaign, if all this row has done is taken the Tories down to 43 or 44% it could have been a lot worse
Lol Yes May needs the EU back sticking its oar in.
I hope Nick Timothy and Theresa May are feeling proud of themselves, as they look at these polls.
MORONS.
The lead has been halved without any squeeze on the Lib Dem vote. It could get worse for them.
Yep. As I have said, if Labour now dialled back on some of the mad leftwing shit, and dog whistled Remainers with a promise to stay in the Single Market, they could actually end up as biggest party.
I don't think they will. I reckon TMay will grind out a decent-ish majority.
But it should have been a landslide which rescued Labour from itself and cemented rightwing politics in power til 2030. She is a dull piece of work.
LOL, even in my most optimistic moods, there is not a cat's chance in hell of Labour being the largest party.
I do think though there's a decent chance of Labour holding up above 200 seats, and keeping the Tory majority to "only" about 50. Still a lot of variables in it, though. A poor result for Labour, but one which will ensure they live to fight another day.
I dunno. Even the Express has turned against her. Yes. The Daily Express: it has turned on Mrs Battleaxe Brexit herself.
This is Osborne's inheritance tax plan poll surge of 2007 in reverse.
If the Express has turned against her she risks losing the Kipper voters who fell in behind her over Brexit.
We are back to Brexit tomorrow, the EU is publishing its Brexit negotiations blueprint, May now needs to go full Boudicca and let Crosby smash Corbyn for the remainder of the campaign, if all this row has done is taken the Tories down to 43 or 44% it could have been a lot worse
The fieldwork on this was a couple of days ago before the debacle really got legs and the lack of consultation about the policy became clear. I'm not sure the genie can be put back in the bottle, and going back to Brexit posturing might look desperate.
I hope Nick Timothy and Theresa May are feeling proud of themselves, as they look at these polls.
MORONS.
Baxtered that gives a Con Majority of just 52.
Ouch.
Perilously close to Hung Parliament territory. FFS. Against Corbyn??!! She could actually lose her majority altogether.
She is a clueless twat, Nick Timothy is a raging fuckwit. I am sure thre will be some righteously angry people in CCHQ, at this moment, and who can blame them. Let's hope they sort it out.
My worry is the trend. Labour will be feeling they have a real chance now. They can energise voters who thought the cause was hopeless. Momentum is a vital thing for hopeless causes, we saw it in Trump, Brexit and indyref.
Jeezo.
It's coming down to this:
Corbyn has given people ample reasons to vote for him. Trains, tuition fees, magic money trees. And hope. He's giving people who've seen their living standards decline year on year hope that something, somewhere, will change.
May has offered nothing more than dull grey managerialism. John Major's second-hand Y fronts. The Conservative Manifesto, apart from appearing to tax old grannies to death, offered no hope, no positive vision of Britain, nothing to vote FOR.
And for that reason, Corbyn and Labour have all the momentum now.
It's a 52 seat majority now, but it could easily be hung parliament territory in three weeks.
Yes it could. It's hope, and time for a change because things have got lot worse in the country in seven years of Tory government, versus Corbyn said some crap about the IRA in the 1980s. A fair proportion of the electorate probably don't even know who the IRA were.
yes things have got a lot worse like highest employment rate since the early 70s deficit halved one of the highest growth nations in the world The economy finally on an even keel compared to how labour left it when there was no money left in 2010. even Corbyns own MPs had no confidence in him and tried to oust him . He is a throwback to the 1970s and offers nothing for this country except Venezuela on steroids. anyone can promise free sweeties but somebody has to pay for them in reality and I don't want my children or grandchildren to have to pay for them with this E grader terrorist sympathising mathematically incompetent never done a days work in his life idiot running the country still deluded by a socialist failed dream. Corbyn offers no hope at all
She and her team thought this was a great way of differentiating herself from Cameron except the great home owning democracy is the policy of Thatcher.
For 40 years it has been Tory people should own their homes and not pay IHT on it when they die.
The perception now is that Mrs May has shat all over that.
I hope Nick Timothy and Theresa May are feeling proud of themselves, as they look at these polls.
MORONS.
Baxtered that gives a Con Majority of just 52.
Ouch.
Perilously close to Hung Parliament territory. FFS. Against Corbyn??!! She could actually lose her majority altogether.
She is a clueless twat, Nick Timothy is a raging fuckwit. I am sure there will be some righteously angry people in CCHQ, at this moment, and who can blame them. Let's hope they sort it out.
My worry is the trend. Labour will be feeling they have a real chance now. They can energise voters who thought the cause was hopeless. Momentum is a vital thing for hopeless causes, we saw it in Trump, Brexit and indyref.
Jeezo.
43% is still more than Thatcher got in 1983 and 1987 and more than Cameron and Major ever got and 34% is no better than Kinnock got in 1992 and this is the worst moment of the campaign, tomorrow the EU produces its Brexit plans which will be completely uncompromising, May will roll out the 'Battling for Britain against Juncker' card and we are back to Brexit again and she could well be able to get 2-3% back from Labour on that
Maybe, maybe not. We must pray.
But if she wins, now, she will win with many of us on the right holding her in contempt and disdain for her farcical errors and her pathetic, nannying, Milibandian politics. She really is the meddling "silly woman" my mother described.
I hope the Tories dump her ASAP, whatever the result.
They won't, even at this lowest of moments for her campaign she is still getting Thatcher levels of 43% and 44%, she is the first Tory leader ever since Thatcher to get that high just weeks before a general election, she has drawn in former bluecollar UKIP voters who were once Labour and added them to the 37% Cameron got, even if she falls short of a 100 seat majority that coalition could last her a decade and with Corbyn likely to do well enough to stay on and fight in 2022 it may well do. May could be the British Merkel (remember Merkel won in her first election too but was also seen as having underperformed, 12 years later she is still there)
I hope Nick Timothy and Theresa May are feeling proud of themselves, as they look at these polls.
MORONS.
The lead has been halved without any squeeze on the Lib Dem vote. It could get worse for them.
Yep. As I have said, if Labour now dialled back on some of the mad leftwing shit, and dog whistled Remainers with a promise to stay in the Single Market, they could actually end up as biggest party.
I don't think they will. I reckon TMay will grind out a decent-ish majority.
But it should have been a landslide which rescued Labour from itself and cemented rightwing politics in power til 2030. She is a dull piece of work.
LOL, even in my most optimistic moods, there in it, though. A poor result for Labour, but one which will ensure they live to fight another day.
I dunno. Even the Express has turned against her. Yes. The Daily Express: it has turned on Mrs Battleaxe Brexit herself.
This is Osborne's inheritance tax plan poll surge of 2007 in reverse.
If the Express has turned against her she risks losing the Kipper voters who fell in behind her over Brexit.
We are back to Brexit tomorrow, the EU is publishing its Brexit negotiations blueprint, May now needs to go full Boudicca and let Crosby smash Corbyn for the remainder of the campaign, if all this row has done is taken the Tories down to 43 or 44% it could have been a lot worse
The fieldwork on this was a couple of days ago before the debacle really got legs and the lack of consultation about the policy became clear. I'm not sure the genie can be put back in the bottle, and going back to Brexit posturing might look desperate.
No, the evidence is clear this so called 'debacle' has still left the Tories on 43% or 44%, that is now a solid base on which to build and still something most Tory leaders would give their eye teeth for, Brexit still defines this election and is at the heart May's new coalition and it will be back at the top of the agenda again this week
Corbyn has given people ample reasons to vote for him. Trains, tuition fees, magic money trees. And hope. He's giving people who've seen their living standards decline year on year hope that something, somewhere, will change.
May has offered nothing more than dull grey managerialism. John Major's second-hand Y fronts. The Conservative Manifesto, apart from appearing to tax old grannies to death, offered no hope, no positive vision of Britain, nothing to vote FOR.
And for that reason, Corbyn and Labour have all the momentum now.
It's a 52 seat majority now, but it could easily be hung parliament territory in three weeks.
Agreed. Corbyn is at his best in outdoor campaign mode - eloquent, positive and unruffled: he makes his audience feel better. The Conservative campaign has been amazingly timid and negative, and it's about to get more negative, as the string of similar posts from PB Tories on this thread show - it's going to be all "beware the IRA" this week.
I think that might have worked earlier, but at this point it looks panicky. They're not offering any new reason to vote for them, just shouting about the other guy. "Vote for us because we're not someone else".
That said, all this hysteria is overdone at present. A 9-point lead is enough to produce a result slightly better for the Tories than last time. It might go into reverse, it might carry on declining, but the best bet is probably that it'll end up much as now. In which case May will carry on but look extremely silly to have put us all through this for no result.
43% is still more than Thatcher got in 1983 and 1987 and more than Cameron and Major ever got and 34% is no better than Kinnock got in 1992 and this is the worst moment of the campaign, tomorrow the EU produces its Brexit plans which will be completely uncompromising, May will roll out the 'Battling for Britain against Juncker' card and we are back to Brexit again and she could well be able to get 2-3% back from Labour on that
But there's still 18 days to go.
Let's imagine that the Conservatives attack Corbyn personally, go hard on the IRA stuff, and it backfires on them. Not spectacularly, but a situation where most people who would be affected by it have already made up their minds and floating voters just see it as the nasty party up to their usual tricks.
With one week to go, Labour gain a point, just one point, mind you, while the Tories lose one. That's 42% to 35%.
Baxtered, that would be a Con majority of 28, a net gain of just 8 seats on 2015. Against CORBYN. Against the most hapless, incompetent leader a Conservative has ever had to face, a leader plucked from obscurity, despised by his own parliamentary party, presenting a manifesto of views stolen wholesale from the 1970s.
How does Theresa May govern after that kind of result?
It's not a defeat, but it is a defeat. It's a rejection of her lefty, authoritarian brand of conservatism - a sign that given the choice between wishy-washy social democratic interventionalist managerialism people would rather go full on socialist.
How does a result like this give her a stronger mandate in Brussels? She now looks weak, unable to progress against the most incompetent of opponents. A fool who takes bad advice and makes unforced errors. The EU will be laughing.
Surely in such a circumstance May has effectively lost and must either resign, or her party must remove her. The only other option is that she carries on, fatally wounded and without any credibility and leads us to a disastrous, badly negotiated and mismanaged Brexit.
That's my 42% to Labour's 35% scenario. We're at 43% to 34% now.
The Conservative campaign has been amazingly timid and negative, and it's about to get more negative, as the string of similar posts from PB Tories on this thread show - it's going to be all "beware the IRA" this week.
I think that might have worked earlier, but at this point it looks panicky. They're not offering any new reason to vote for them, just shouting about the other guy. "Vote for us because we're not someone else".
They're attacking the opposition leader like it was 1983 or 1992. Any idea what their focus groups have told them about which exact demographics respond as desired to the IRA thing? People with Help for Heroes stickers in their cars - but most of them will vote Tory anyway. I get the feeling it serves more to shore up their existing market than win swingers.
Corbyn has given people ample reasons to vote for him. Trains, tuition fees, magic money trees. And hope. He's giving people who've seen their living standards decline year on year hope that something, somewhere, will change.
May has offered nothing more than dull grey managerialism. John Major's second-hand Y fronts. The Conservative Manifesto, apart from appearing to tax old grannies to death, offered no hope, no positive vision of Britain, nothing to vote FOR.
And for that reason, Corbyn and Labour have all the momentum now.
It's a 52 seat majority now, but it could easily be hung parliament territory in three weeks.
Agreed. Corbyn is at his best in outdoor campaign mode - eloquent, positive and unruffled: he makes his audience feel better. The Conservative campaign has been amazingly timid and negative, and it's about to get more negative, as the string of similar posts from PB Tories on this thread show - it's going to be all "beware the IRA" this week.
I think that might have worked earlier, but at this point it looks panicky. They're not offering any new reason to vote for them, just shouting about the other guy. "Vote for us because we're not someone else".
That said, all this hysteria is overdone at present. A 9-point lead is enough to produce a result slightly better for the Tories than last time. It might go into reverse, it might carry on declining, but the best bet is probably that it'll end up much as now. In which case May will carry on but look extremely silly to have put us all through this for no result.
She'll look worse than "silly". If she puts us through this just to get a fairly small majority (under 50, say) - against possibly the worst Labour leader in history - she will be perceived as a loser and an idiot, and will be permanently damaged. The many many people on the right who detest her Milibandism will be eagerly waiting for the right moment to get rid of her.
She needs, in my opinion, a majority of 50 at a very minimum, and 80 to feel truly safe from her own mistrustful party.
Social care aside the Tories are only polling 43% or 44% partly because of personal votes for May, a Davis, Fox, Leadsom, Hammond or even Johnson led party would probably be doing worse. Yougov today also showed neither Khan, Cooper or Umunna would do any better than Corbyn against May, the latter 2 would actually do worse, Corbyn is rallying his base which is more than can be said for Brown and Ed Miliband
43% is still more than Thatcher got in 1983 and 1987 and more than Cameron and Major ever got and 34% is no better than Kinnock got in 1992 and this is the worst moment of the campaign, tomorrow the EU produces its Brexit plans which will be completely uncompromising, May will roll out the 'Battling for Britain against Juncker' card and we are back to Brexit again and she could well be able to get 2-3% back from Labour on that
But there's still 18 days to go.
Let's imagine that the Conservatives attack Corbyn personally, go hard on the IRA stuff, and it backfires on them. Not spectacularly, but a situation where most people who would be affected by it have already made up their minds and floating voters just see it as the nasty party up to their usual tricks.
With one week to go, Labour gain a point, just one point, mind you, while the Tories lose one. That's 42% to 35%.
Baxtered, that would be a Con majority of 28, a net gain of just 8 seats on 2015. Against CORBYN. Against the most hapless, incompetent leader a Conservative has ever had to face, a leader plucked from obscurity, despised by his own parliamentary party, presenting a manifesto of views stolen wholesale from the 1970s.
How does Theresa May govern after that kind of result?
It's not a defeat, but it is a defeat. It's a rejection of her lefty, authoritarian brand of conservatism - a sign that given the choice between wishy-washy social democratic interventionalist managerialism people would rather go full on socialist.
How does a result like this give her a stronger mandate in Brussels? She now looks weak, unable to progress against the most incompetent of opponents. A fool who takes bad advice and makes unforced errors. The EU will be laughing.
Surely in such a circumstance May has effectively lost and must either resign, or her party must remove her. The only other option is that she carries on, fatally wounded and without any credibility and leads us to a disastrous, badly negotiated and mismanaged Brexit.
That's my 42% to Labour's 35% scenario. We're at 43% to 34% now.
A misreading of the situation, as PM Corbyn would be a disaster but as Labour leader he is actually quite effective at rallying his base, certainly more than Brown and Miliband were and even 42 43 or 44% is not a defeat on any measure. She will have a mandate to go to Brussels and try to get some form of deal but without compromising on paying vast sums to the EU and keeping free movement, if the EU refuse to compromise in any way she can then just walk, the public will be behind her, call another general election (having cobbled together some compromise on social care if it held her back this time) and win a landslide and that is that
She and her team thought this was a great way of differentiating herself from Cameron except the great home owning democracy is the policy of Thatcher.
For 40 years it has been Tory orthodoxy that people should own their homes and not pay IHT on it when they die.
The perception now is that Mrs May has shat all over that.
The idea that any Tory government would propose an idea which sounds like "the government seizing the home you bought" is like the Labour party airily proposing to sell the NHS to some billionaire Americans.
It's like a candidate in the recent Iranian elections pissing on the Koran, on live TV, and hoping for a poll-boost.
And TMay didn't notice how this might go down. Help.
They already do seize the home you bought if you need residential care, at least you now get to keep £100k of its value not £23k as before
Alternatively, this all a blip en route to a decent sized Tory majority, the effect of which will be moderated by the centre left win in '22 or '25 (up to them and how they play it). Honestly, what was this place like in 2015? Or 2010 when the Tories did throw a majority away?
A misreading of the situation, as PM Corbyn would be a disaster but as Labour leader he is actually quite effective at rallying his base, certainly more than Brown and Miliband were and even 42 43 or 44% is not a defeat on any measure. She will have a mandate to go to Brussels and try to get some form of deal but without compromising on paying vast sums to the EU and keeping free movement, if the EU refuse to compromise in any way she can then just walk, the public will be behind her, call another general election (having cobbled together some compromise on social care if it held her back this time) and win a landslide and that is that
Another election - good idea, keep asking the electorate till they get it right. Sure to go well.
43% is stilshe could well be able to get 2-3% back from Labour on that
But there's still 18 days to go.
Let's i
How does Theresa May govern after that kind of result?
It's not a defeat, but it is a defeat. It's a rejection of her lefty, authoritarian brand of conservatism - a sign that given the choice between wishy-washy social democratic interventionalist managerialism people would rather go full on socialist.
How does a result like this give her a stronger mandate in Brussels? She now looks weak, unable to progress against the most incompetent of opponents. A fool who takes bad advice and makes unforced errors. The EU will be laughing.
Surely in such a circumstance May has effectively lost and must either resign, or her party must remove her. The only other option is that she carries on, fatally wounded and without any credibility and leads us to a disastrous, badly negotiated and mismanaged Brexit.
That's my 42% to Labour's 35% scenario. We're at 43% to 34% now.
A misreading of the situation, as PM Corbyn would be a disaster but as Labour leader he is actually quite effective at rallying his base, certainly more than Brown and Miliband were and even 43 or 44% is not a defeat on any measure. She will have a mandate to go to Brussels and try to get some form of deal but without compromising on paying vast sums to the EU and keeping free movement, if the EU refuse to compromise in any way she can then just walk, the public will be behind her, call another general election (having cobbled together some compromise on social care if it held her back this time) and win a landslide and that is that
A THIRD election? lol. She would probably lose.
She is a risibly poor leader. She is a shit politician. If she had any sense she'd have seen this coming.
We just have to hope that Corbyn - who is even shittier - can't ride the wave of populism to victory, and a calamitous hung parliament.
MEH.
42% to 44% is still higher than any Tory leader has got at a general election since Thatcher, on an election of kowtowing to Juncker and $100 billion Euros and no immigration controls or proper Brexit it would be no contest, as I said May is building a coalition to last her a decade through former Kippers+Cameron voters, 34% or 35% for Corbyn saves his leadership, it does not get him into No 10
Alternatively, this all a blip en route to a decent sized Tory majority, the effect of which will be moderated by the centre left win in '22 or '25 (up to them and how they play it). Honestly, what was this place like in 2015? Or 2010 when the Tories did throw a majority away?
It's the fact that she's doing so badly against Corbyn that's so unbelievable. It's like the world heavyweight champ getting into the ring against a toothless, cross-eyed octogenarian. Not only does the champ somehow trip over his own sholeaces, his opponent rains heavy blows on him while he's tying them up and stuns him for the second half of the match. Amazingly, the doddering old git makes it to the twelth round and the champ only scrapes a victory on points.
That's what this election feels like.
It smells, for all the world, like Trump, like Brexit. Like the underdog coming from behind to champion the little guy who's been left behind by declining living standards year after year after year.
Again, I don't think this will be enough to get Corbyn over the finish line. But a majority of < 50 for the Conservatives is a failure and a majority around the 25 mark against an opponent like Corbyn is a sacking offence.
I hope Nick Timothy and Theresa May are feeling proud of themselves, as they look at these polls.
MORONS.
The lead has been halved without any squeeze on the Lib Dem vote. It could get worse for them.
Yep. As I have said, if Labour now dialled back on some of the mad leftwing shit, and dog whistled Remainers with a promise to stay in the Single Market, they could actually end up as biggest party.
I don't think they will. I reckon TMay will grind out a decent-ish majority.
But it should have been a landslide which rescued Labour from itself and cemented rightwing politics in power til 2030. She is a dull piece of work.
LOL, even in my most optimistic moods, there is not a cat's chance in hell of Labour being the largest party.
I do think though there's a decent chance of Labour holding up above 200 seats, and keeping the Tory majority to "only" about 50. Still a lot of variables in it, though. A poor result for Labour, but one which will ensure they live to fight another day.
I dunno. Even the Express has turned against her. Yes. The Daily Express: it has turned on Mrs Battleaxe Brexit herself.
Relax she will probably get a majority of about 50 instead of 150, which against Corbyn is still somewhat of a failure but er.....welll er.......I don't know if its worth it actually.
Alternatively, this all a blip en route to a decent sized Tory majority, the effect of which will be moderated by the centre left win in '22 or '25 (up to them and how they play it). Honestly, what was this place like in 2015? Or 2010 when the Tories did throw a majority away?
It's the fact that she's doing so badly against Corbyn that's so unbelievable. It's like the world heavyweight champ getting into the ring against a toothless, cross-eyed octogenarian. Not only does the champ somehow trip over his own sholeaces, his opponent rains heavy blows on him while he's tying them up and stuns him for the second half of the match. Amazingly, the doddering old git makes it to the twelth round and the champ only scrapes a victory on points.
That's what this election feels like.
It smells, for all the world, like Trump, like Brexit. Like the underdog coming from behind to champion the little guy who's been left behind by declining living standards year after year after year.
Again, I don't think this will be enough to get Corbyn over the finish line. But a majority of < 50 for the Conservatives is a failure and a majority around the 25 mark against an opponent like Corbyn is a sacking offence.
Relax she will probably get a majority of about 50 instead of 150, which against Corbyn is still somewhat of a failure but er.....welll er.......I don't know if its worth it actually.
Getting so pessimistic that I'll be overjoyed if the Tories hold maidenhead....
Alternatively, this all a blip en route to a decent sized Tory majority, the effect of which will be moderated by the centre left win in '22 or '25 (up to them and how they play it). Honestly, what was this place like in 2015? Or 2010 when the Tories did throw a majority away?
It's the fact that she's doing so badly against Corbyn that's so unbelievable. It's like the world heavyweight champ getting into the ring against a toothless, cross-eyed octogenarian. Not only does the champ somehow trip over his own sholeaces, his opponent rains heavy blows on him while he's tying them up and stuns him for the second half of the match. Amazingly, the doddering old git makes it to the twelth round and the champ only scrapes a victory on points.
That's what this election feels like.
It smells, for all the world, like Trump, like Brexit. Like the underdog coming from behind to champion the little guy who's been left behind by declining living standards year after year after year.
Again, I don't think this will be enough to get Corbyn over the finish line. But a majority of < 50 for the Conservatives is a failure and a majority around the 25 mark against an opponent like Corbyn is a sacking offence.
No it isn't, Corbyn would be a crap PM but he is clearly a far better campaigner than Miliband or Brown were and is rallying the Labour base. However even if May gets 42 to 44% that would be enough to keep her in No10 for a decade if she holds that coalition together. Goodnight
The ICM later today feels like the most important poll of the campaign so far.
It's turnout weighted to last GE, not what people say, so should be better for Con.
If the lead with ICM is in single figures, does May have to press the panic button?
How about she says:
"We are sticking to social care plans but I am very concerned that some people are worried they could lose most of their savings - in order that people don't have to worry the plans stay as they are but with a maximum spending cap of £80k (or whatever)"
It would be mega embarrassing but it would close the issue down.
If it's a choice of that or risking losing the election (ie a Hung Parliament) then surely she has to act.
Alternatively, this all a blip en route to a decent sized Tory majority, the effect of which will be moderated by the centre left win in '22 or '25 (up to them and how they play it). Honestly, what was this place like in 2015? Or 2010 when the Tories did throw a majority away?
It's the fact that she's doing so badly against Corbyn that's so unbelievable. It's like the world heavyweight champ getting into the ring against a toothless, cross-eyed octogenarian. Not only does the champ somehow trip over his own sholeaces, his opponent rains heavy blows on him while he's tying them up and stuns him for the second half of the match. Amazingly, the doddering old git makes it to the twelth round and the champ only scrapes a victory on points.
That's what this election feels like.
It smells, for all the world, like Trump, like Brexit. Like the underdog coming from behind to champion the little guy who's been left behind by declining living standards year after year after year.
Again, I don't think this will be enough to get Corbyn over the finish line. But a majority of < 50 for the Conservatives is a failure and a majority around the 25 mark against an opponent like Corbyn is a sacking offence.
It is certainly possible
OK say the Tories get a majority but it's small enough for May to have to go. Who's on the list to replace her?
A misreading of the situation, as PM Corbyn would be a disaster but as Labour leader he is actually quite effective at rallying his base, certainly more than Brown and Miliband were and even 42 43 or 44% is not a defeat on any measure. She will have a mandate to go to Brussels and try to get some form of deal but without compromising on paying vast sums to the EU and keeping free movement, if the EU refuse to compromise in any way she can then just walk, the public will be behind her, call another general election (having cobbled together some compromise on social care if it held her back this time) and win a landslide and that is that
Another election - good idea, keep asking the electorate till they get it right. Sure to go well.
If she needs it to get a full Brexit through Parliament because the EU won't budge she will have to
The ICM later today feels like the most important poll of the campaign so far.
It's turnout weighted to last GE, not what people say, so should be better for Con.
If the lead with ICM is in single figures, does May have to press the panic button?
How about she says:
"We are sticking to social care plans but I am very concerned that some people are worried they could lose most of their savings - in order that people don't have to worry the plans stay as they are but with a maximum spending cap of £80k (or whatever)"
It would be mega embarrassing but it would close the issue down.
If it's a choice of that or risking losing the election (ie a Hung Parliament) then surely she has to act.
Well she has the perfect venue to do that during the interview with Neil tomorrow, by which time the ICM will be known.
Alternatively, this all a blip en route to a decent sized Tory majority, the effect of which will be moderated by the centre left win in '22 or '25 (up to them and how they play it). Honestly, what was this place like in 2015? Or 2010 when the Tories did throw a majority away?
It's the fact that she's doing so badly against Corbyn that's so unbelievable. It's like the world heavyweight champ getting into the ring against a toothless, cross-eyed octogenarian. Not only does the champ somehow trip over his own sholeaces, his opponent rains heavy blows on him while he's tying them up and stuns him for the second half of the match. Amazingly, the doddering old git makes it to the twelth round and the champ only scrapes a victory on points.
That's what this election feels like.
It smells, for all the world, like Trump, like Brexit. Like the underdog coming from behind to champion the little guy who's been left behind by declining living standards year after year after year.
Again, I don't think this will be enough to get Corbyn over the finish line. But a majority of < 50 for the Conservatives is a failure and a majority around the 25 mark against an opponent like Corbyn is a sacking offence.
It is certainly possible
OK say the Tories get a majority but it's small enough for May to have to go. Who's on the list to replace her?
Relax she will probably get a majority of about 50 instead of 150, which against Corbyn is still somewhat of a failure but er.....welll er.......I don't know if its worth it actually.
Getting so pessimistic that I'll be overjoyed if the Tories hold maidenhead....
A misreading of the situation, as PM Corbyn would be a disaster but as Labour leader he is actually quite effective at rallying his base, certainly more than Brown and Miliband were and even 42 43 or 44% is not a defeat on any measure. She will have a mandate to go to Brussels and try to get some form of deal but without compromising on paying vast sums to the EU and keeping free movement, if the EU refuse to compromise in any way she can then just walk, the public will be behind her, call another general election (having cobbled together some compromise on social care if it held her back this time) and win a landslide and that is that
Another election - good idea, keep asking the electorate till they get it right. Sure to go well.
If she needs it to get a full Brexit through Parliament because the EU won't budge she will have to
I think we'd get Brexit in name only rather than risk another GE at which annihilation would beckon. It could be marketed as a transitional arrangement. The first step on the long march to SOVVERENITY.
Relax she will probably get a majority of about 50 instead of 150, which against Corbyn is still somewhat of a failure but er.....welll er.......I don't know if its worth it actually.
Getting so pessimistic that I'll be overjoyed if the Tories hold maidenhead....
Not many £100,000 price homes there!
One elderly resident recently had three years' residential care on the state without his home equity being threatened.
Relax she will probably get a majority of about 50 instead of 150, which against Corbyn is still somewhat of a failure but er.....welll er.......I don't know if its worth it actually.
Getting so pessimistic that I'll be overjoyed if the Tories hold maidenhead....
Not many £100,000 price homes there!
They really have boxed themselves into a corner. One way to mitigate it, as MikeL suggested, would be to combine the floor and a cap. For example, you are only charged a maximum of £75k on assets above £100k.
Relax she will probably get a majority of about 50 instead of 150, which against Corbyn is still somewhat of a failure but er.....welll er.......I don't know if its worth it actually.
Majority under 50: she's a Dead Woman Walking Majority 50-100: she'll survive, and maybe prosper, if she gets Brexit right Majority over 100: She's Britannia Reborn
If by some fantastic ineptitude she manages to reduce her majority, or even lose it, she will be seen as the most comically inept politician in history, and she will surely resign.
I really want her to get a majority of 100+, mainly just to see your reaction.
Relax she will probably get a majority of about 50 instead of 150, which against Corbyn is still somewhat of a failure but er.....welll er.......I don't know if its worth it actually.
Getting so pessimistic that I'll be overjoyed if the Tories hold maidenhead....
Not many £100,000 price homes there!
They really have boxed themselves into a corner. One way to mitigate it, as MikeL suggested, would be to combine the floor and a cap. For example, you are only charged a maximum of £75k on assets above £100k.
Indeed - don't make the cap £100k as it'll cause confusion having two different things £100k. That why I suggest:
Assets protected - £100k
Spending cap - £80k (or similar figure; but NOT £100k)
Relax she will probably get a majority of about 50 instead of 150, which against Corbyn is still somewhat of a failure but er.....welll er.......I don't know if its worth it actually.
Majority under 50: she's a Dead Woman Walking Majority 50-100: she'll survive, and maybe prosper, if she gets Brexit right Majority over 100: She's Britannia Reborn
If by some fantastic ineptitude she manages to reduce her majority, or even lose it, she will be seen as the most comically inept politician in history, and she will surely resign.
50-80ish majority yes she will survive but will still have a large contingent of headbangers who want hard brexit at any cost, this is why it must be a majority of around 100.
Relax she will probably get a majority of about 50 instead of 150, which against Corbyn is still somewhat of a failure but er.....welll er.......I don't know if its worth it actually.
Majority under 50: she's a Dead Woman Walking Majority 50-100: she'll survive, and maybe prosper, if she gets Brexit right Majority over 100: She's Britannia Reborn
If by some fantastic ineptitude she manages to reduce her majority, or even lose it, she will be seen as the most comically inept politician in history, and she will surely resign.
I really want her to get a majority of 100+, mainly just to see your reaction.
He'll be May's biggest fan that point eclipsing even Big G's slavish devotion.
Relax she will probably get a majority of about 50 instead of 150, which against Corbyn is still somewhat of a failure but er.....welll er.......I don't know if its worth it actually.
Getting so pessimistic that I'll be overjoyed if the Tories hold maidenhead....
Not many £100,000 price homes there!
One elderly resident recently had three years' residential care on the state without his home equity being threatened.
Relax she will probably get a majority of about 50 instead of 150, which against Corbyn is still somewhat of a failure but er.....welll er.......I don't know if its worth it actually.
Getting so pessimistic that I'll be overjoyed if the Tories hold maidenhead....
Not many £100,000 price homes there!
One elderly resident recently had three years' residential care on the state without his home equity being threatened.
Relax she will probably get a majority of about 50 instead of 150, which against Corbyn is still somewhat of a failure but er.....welll er.......I don't know if its worth it actually.
Getting so pessimistic that I'll be overjoyed if the Tories hold maidenhead....
Not many £100,000 price homes there!
One elderly resident recently had three years' residential care on the state without his home equity being threatened.
Who?
Rolf Harris.
You think prisoners should pay for their time in prison?
Relax she will probably get a majority of about 50 instead of 150, which against Corbyn is still somewhat of a failure but er.....welll er.......I don't know if its worth it actually.
Getting so pessimistic that I'll be overjoyed if the Tories hold maidenhead....
Not many £100,000 price homes there!
They really have boxed themselves into a corner. One way to mitigate it, as MikeL suggested, would be to combine the floor and a cap. For example, you are only charged a maximum of £75k on assets above £100k.
Indeed - don't make the cap £100k as it'll cause confusion having two different things £100k. That why I suggest:
Assets protected - £100k
Spending cap - £80k (or similar figure; but NOT £100k)
Would be very interesting to read statistics on this. Like number of people against total care amount charged. Is the distribution skewed towards lots of people with small bills, or relatively few with large bills.
Relax she will probably get a majority of about 50 instead of 150, which against Corbyn is still somewhat of a failure but er.....welll er.......I don't know if its worth it actually.
Getting so pessimistic that I'll be overjoyed if the Tories hold maidenhead....
Not many £100,000 price homes there!
They really have boxed themselves into a corner. One way to mitigate it, as MikeL suggested, would be to combine the floor and a cap. For example, you are only charged a maximum of £75k on assets above £100k.
Indeed - don't make the cap £100k as it'll cause confusion having two different things £100k. That why I suggest:
Assets protected - £100k
Spending cap - £80k (or similar figure; but NOT £100k)
Would be very interesting to read statistics on this. Like number of people against total care amount charged. Is the distribution skewed towards lots of people with small bills, or relatively few with large bills.
Relax she will probably get a majority of about 50 instead of 150, which against Corbyn is still somewhat of a failure but er.....welll er.......I don't know if its worth it actually.
Getting so pessimistic that I'll be overjoyed if the Tories hold maidenhead....
Not many £100,000 price homes there!
One elderly resident recently had three years' residential care on the state without his home equity being threatened.
Who?
Rolf Harris.
You think prisoners should pay for their time in prison?
Relax she will probably get a majority of about 50 instead of 150, which against Corbyn is still somewhat of a failure but er.....welll er.......I don't know if its worth it actually.
Getting so pessimistic that I'll be overjoyed if the Tories hold maidenhead....
Not many £100,000 price homes there!
They really have boxed themselves into a corner. One way to mitigate it, as MikeL suggested, would be to combine the floor and a cap. For example, you are only charged a maximum of £75k on assets above £100k.
Indeed - don't make the cap £100k as it'll cause confusion having two different things £100k. That why I suggest:
Assets protected - £100k
Spending cap - £80k (or similar figure; but NOT £100k)
Would be very interesting to read statistics on this. Like number of people against total care amount charged. Is the distribution skewed towards lots of people with small bills, or relatively few with large bills.
Home care will be lots with small bills.
Residential will be few with big bills.
Since this was a change for home care then a cap for those on home care would have saved a lot of grief without costing the Earth I imagine.
Relax she will probably get a majority of about 50 instead of 150, which against Corbyn is still somewhat of a failure but er.....welll er.......I don't know if its worth it actually.
Getting so pessimistic that I'll be overjoyed if the Tories hold maidenhead....
Not many £100,000 price homes there!
They really have boxed themselves into a corner. One way to mitigate it, as MikeL suggested, would be to combine the floor and a cap. For example, you are only charged a maximum of £75k on assets above £100k.
Indeed - don't make the cap £100k as it'll cause confusion having two different things £100k. That why I suggest:
Assets protected - £100k
Spending cap - £80k (or similar figure; but NOT £100k)
Would be very interesting to read statistics on this. Like number of people against total care amount charged. Is the distribution skewed towards lots of people with small bills, or relatively few with large bills.
Home care will be lots with small bills.
Residential will be few with big bills.
Since this was a change for home care then a cap for those on home care would have saved a lot of grief without costing the Earth I imagine.
Not a great weekend for the Blues, TM's rigidity may now become quite a handicap at a time when they need agility and quick thinking, the NATO summit and G7 although good for a photo op (not holding hands with Donald this time) will not be a welcome distraction and I can see a few of her old Tory opponents making hay while she rushes off to G7/NATO business - not quite a backstabbing moment but perhaps the start of the whispers as to whether she is quite the right person for the job.
Dont forget TM called this election with little consultation of her colleagues who may be asking why if they look at sub-50 seat majority....
Comments
18 to 34: 30/46
35 to 54: 42/35
Over 55: 53/24
That still looks OK for Con - wonder if Survation weighting 18 to 34s too highly
Con 48
Lab 30
Tonight we got:
Con 43
Lab 34
Ergo,
Cons -5
Lab +4
TMICIPM nailed on
I do think though there's a decent chance of Labour holding up above 200 seats, and keeping the Tory majority to "only" about 50. Still a lot of variables in it, though. A poor result for Labour, but one which will ensure they live to fight another day.
Corbyn has given people ample reasons to vote for him. Trains, tuition fees, magic money trees. And hope. He's giving people who've seen their living standards decline year on year hope that something, somewhere, will change.
May has offered nothing more than dull grey managerialism. John Major's second-hand Y fronts. The Conservative Manifesto, apart from appearing to tax old grannies to death, offered no hope, no positive vision of Britain, nothing to vote FOR.
And for that reason, Corbyn and Labour have all the momentum now.
It's a 52 seat majority now, but it could easily be hung parliament territory in three weeks.
Also gives a 19% Labour lead in Wales(!!), but that's probably an outlier.
"Green paper, all party consultation, reform." was what the manifesto needed.
I hope Lynton lobs a laptop at Nick.
Con 43 (-5)
Lab 34 (+4)
LD 9 (+1)
UKIP 4 (-)
This is the same lead that delivered Blair a 167 seat majority in 2001. The shares then were 42/33/19.
Oh, and the embargo ended at 00.01 but I'm so tired, I really should go to bed.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/866432743999254528
I hope Nick Timothy and Theresa May are feeling proud of themselves, as they look at these polls.
MORONS.
Baxtered that gives a Con Majority of just 52.
Ouch.
Perilously close to Hung Parliament territory. FFS. Against Corbyn??!! She could actually lose her majority altogether.
She is a clueless twat, Nick Timothy is a raging fuckwit. I am sure thre will be some righteously angry people in CCHQ, at this moment, and who can blame them. Let's hope they sort it out.
My worry is the trend. Labour will be feeling they have a real chance now. They can energise voters who thought the cause was hopeless. Momentum is a vital thing for hopeless causes, we saw it in Trump, Brexit and indyref.
Jeezo.
It's coming down to this:
Corbyn has given people ample reasons to vote for him. Trains, tuition fees, magic money trees. And hope. He's giving people who've seen their living standards decline year on year hope that something, somewhere, will change.
May has offered nothing more than dull grey managerialism. John Major's second-hand Y fronts. The Conservative Manifesto, apart from appearing to tax old grannies to death, offered no hope, no positive vision of Britain, nothing to vote FOR.
And for that reason, Corbyn and Labour have all the momentum now.
It's a 52 seat majority now, but it could easily be hung parliament territory in three weeks.
Yes it could. It's hope, and time for a change because things have got lot worse in the country in seven years of Tory government, versus Corbyn said some crap about the IRA in the 1980s. A fair proportion of the electorate probably don't even know who the IRA were.
yes things have got a lot worse like highest employment rate since the early 70s deficit halved one of the highest growth nations in the world The economy finally on an even keel compared to how labour left it when there was no money left in 2010. even Corbyns own MPs had no confidence in him and tried to oust him . He is a throwback to the 1970s and offers nothing for this country except Venezuela on steroids. anyone can promise free sweeties but somebody has to pay for them in reality and I don't want my children or grandchildren to have to pay for them with this E grader terrorist sympathising mathematically incompetent never done a days work in his life idiot running the country still deluded by a socialist failed dream. Corbyn offers no hope at all
She and her team thought this was a great way of differentiating herself from Cameron except the great home owning democracy is the policy of Thatcher.
For 40 years it has been Tory people should own their homes and not pay IHT on it when they die.
The perception now is that Mrs May has shat all over that.
I think that might have worked earlier, but at this point it looks panicky. They're not offering any new reason to vote for them, just shouting about the other guy. "Vote for us because we're not someone else".
That said, all this hysteria is overdone at present. A 9-point lead is enough to produce a result slightly better for the Tories than last time. It might go into reverse, it might carry on declining, but the best bet is probably that it'll end up much as now. In which case May will carry on but look extremely silly to have put us all through this for no result.
Let's imagine that the Conservatives attack Corbyn personally, go hard on the IRA stuff, and it backfires on them. Not spectacularly, but a situation where most people who would be affected by it have already made up their minds and floating voters just see it as the nasty party up to their usual tricks.
With one week to go, Labour gain a point, just one point, mind you, while the Tories lose one. That's 42% to 35%.
Baxtered, that would be a Con majority of 28, a net gain of just 8 seats on 2015. Against CORBYN. Against the most hapless, incompetent leader a Conservative has ever had to face, a leader plucked from obscurity, despised by his own parliamentary party, presenting a manifesto of views stolen wholesale from the 1970s.
How does Theresa May govern after that kind of result?
It's not a defeat, but it is a defeat. It's a rejection of her lefty, authoritarian brand of conservatism - a sign that given the choice between wishy-washy social democratic interventionalist managerialism people would rather go full on socialist.
How does a result like this give her a stronger mandate in Brussels? She now looks weak, unable to progress against the most incompetent of opponents. A fool who takes bad advice and makes unforced errors. The EU will be laughing.
Surely in such a circumstance May has effectively lost and must either resign, or her party must remove her. The only other option is that she carries on, fatally wounded and without any credibility and leads us to a disastrous, badly negotiated and mismanaged Brexit.
That's my 42% to Labour's 35% scenario. We're at 43% to 34% now.
http://www.private-eye.co.uk/hp-sauce
Con 79.8%
Lab 4.5%
UKIP 4.5%
LibDem 3.3%
SNP 1.0%
Other 6.8%
That's what this election feels like.
It smells, for all the world, like Trump, like Brexit. Like the underdog coming from behind to champion the little guy who's been left behind by declining living standards year after year after year.
Again, I don't think this will be enough to get Corbyn over the finish line. But a majority of < 50 for the Conservatives is a failure and a majority around the 25 mark against an opponent like Corbyn is a sacking offence.
It's turnout weighted to last GE, not what people say, so should be better for Con.
If the lead with ICM is in single figures, does May have to press the panic button?
How about she says:
"We are sticking to social care plans but I am very concerned that some people are worried they could lose most of their savings - in order that people don't have to worry the plans stay as they are but with a maximum spending cap of £80k (or whatever)"
It would be mega embarrassing but it would close the issue down.
If it's a choice of that or risking losing the election (ie a Hung Parliament) then surely she has to act.
Assets protected - £100k
Spending cap - £80k (or similar figure; but NOT £100k)
Residential will be few with big bills.
BBC Debate - Question on Social Care - May not there to defend policy.
Dont forget TM called this election with little consultation of her colleagues who may be asking why if they look at sub-50 seat majority....