politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With postal voting just starting CON maintains emphatic lead
Comments
-
Repliedbigjohnowls said:
She has avoided them. Did you see my pm to you earlier?kle4 said:
When has May sneered at deplorables?foxinsoxuk said:
The surveys above preceed the social care furore.Sandpit said:
Which is why people hate politicians, much better to be honest and deal with something that's been kicked down the road for far too long.MaxPB said:
Who sn.Richard_Tyndall said:
Its called honesty and it is rather refreshing. The bottom line is that it is the right thing to do and she has (quite rightly) calculated that she will win a good majority even if this one policy is initially unpopular.MaxPB said:
Who, other than a rubbish politician, launches a massive tax rise on old people with dementia in the middle of an election campaign. She didn't even prepare the ground by leaking something really horrible in advance. It's real amateur hour stuff.Charles said:
She's not. She's going to win a 50-60 seat majority (as I've been predicting from the start) and have a mandate to do some important stuff.MaxPB said:
Indeed, but we're not heading for a 100+ majority any more. 50+ is what we're looking at, this and the other moves have been Con -> Lab which means getting those direct swings required to make the Labour -> UKIP -> Con strategy work is going to be very tough.ThreeQuidder said:
Sean, grow a pair. This Tory panic is getting fucking tedious. It happens every election at about three weeks out because the media are desperate for a story so they want the favourite to stumble.SeanT said:TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.
Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.
I've come to the conclusion that Theresa May is a rubbish politician. Which isn't exactly great news for the country heading into what is the most important 2-3 year post-war period.
The alternative would have been to say nothing and then introduce it afterwards with all the outrage about it not having been in the manifesto and how you can't trust the Tories.
Personally I think it is a masterstroke.
After all this furore we're still on 46%, maybe the people can cope with the occasional dose of honesty.
Jezza has b0 -
I tipped the Tories at 16/1 on here, and someone else tipped Labour at 25/1.kyf_100 said:
You can take both the 4/1 on Labour and the 8/1 on the Tories and still win.TheScreamingEagles said:
I say the Blue Meanies.Pulpstar said:
Who knows. My calculations say Labouranother_richard said:
Against who though ?Pulpstar said:200 deliveries or canvassing for Clegg next weekend still. He's still in desperate trouble
2015 results:
Liberal Democrat 22,215
Labour 19,862
Conservative 7,544
UKIP 3,575
If the Lib Dems really are polling at 7-8% and mostly from Labour switchers, that 4/1 looks fantastic, especially if you can stick a few quid on the Conservatives as well as an insurance bet.
Every Tory tactical for Clegg in 2015 I know has gone back to the blue meanies.0 -
35% back it 40% oppose it and the Tories are on 44% and 46% with Survation, I can think of worst clusterfucks!!rottenborough said:Kaboom!!!!
As predicted by me for the last two days constantly - Dementia Tax has cut through and is an utter clusterf****
https://twitter.com/fractallogic1/status/866051323053191170/photo/10 -
Yes, backtracking on this wouldn't exactly look strong and stable.Pong said:
If TM backtracks on this, I'll be selling the tories on the spreads.Bromptonaut said:
It'd f*ck up "strong and stable" big time though.SeanT said:I actually wonder if the Tories could fall further if this meme takes hold. THE TORIES WILL TAKE YOUR HOUSE.
It threatens everyone, the old, the young, the middle class, the respectable working class. Blindingly, rhapsodically stupid.
They surely have no choice but to reverse and rethink. Whatever the intricate merits of the policy in itself (and they are arguable) it stinks from the start. It REEKS. It is the durian of manifesto commitments. Sure, it might taste good in the end, but it smells of overflowing toilets.
Changing her mind on this would completely screw up her messaging.
No. It has to be Brexit means brexit. No questions.
Your house is at risk.
Trust Mother Theresa.
(Shut up and vote conservative).
0 -
Too late. It is over. She will need to retract the whole thing by Wednesday imho. And give some waffle about a thorough review of the whole thing etc etc.ThreeQuidder said:
And she has the Brillo interview on Monday.Sandpit said:
Yep, and she needs to get every Tory doing TV and radio tomorrow to be properly briefed and defend it to the hilt.AndyJS said:
Totally disagree. She needs to stick to the policies and dare all those rich, selfish homeowners in the south of England to vote for Jeremy Corbyn.SeanT said:TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.
Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.0 -
It's wide open for childish taunts and rhymes. Unfair, mean, but if they catch on... things like:SeanT said:I actually wonder if the Tories could fall further if this meme takes hold. THE TORIES WILL TAKE YOUR HOUSE.
It threatens everyone, the old, the young, the middle class, the respectable working class. Blindingly, rhapsodically stupid.
They surely have no choice but to reverse and rethink. Whatever the intricate merits of the policy in itself (and they are arguable) it stinks from the start. It REEKS. It is the durian of manifesto commitments. Sure, it might taste good in the end, but it smells of overflowing toilets.
"Hey, hey, Theresa May,
She's gonna take Gran's house away.
Theresa May, strong and stable,
Took the food from the childrens' table"
Really obvious stuff, and absolutely unnecessary.
Maggie would probably have played it by keeping quiet at election time and maybe saying "we will need to examine options for social care".
Then, six months afterwards, leaking out scare stories of costs and people losing all down to £23k at the moment.
Then, a few months later, leaking harsher proposals than intended, before coming out with the proper ones (more thought out than these ones).0 -
(a. Tim FarronRichard_Nabavi said:
Third party squeeze is right, and was of course happening before the latest hysteria. It's an oddity, certainly. You can see why nutty Green extreme lefties might head Corbynwards, but why aren't the LibDems benefiting from sane Labour supporters moving their way? It's mysterious.Pulpstar said:
I'm going weak and wibbly with Corbyn going within 9 points. The third party squeeze is well and truly on in the East Midlands nowRichard_Nabavi said:Evening all, and what an amusing evening.
Executive summary: everyone now agrees that Cameron and Osborne weren't so bad at this politics malarkey after all, right?
(b. The LDs are the stop-Brexit party and literally nothing else.0 -
I also said consistency was for the boring (or something).Jason said:
'These overreacting Tories are pushing me closer every minute to a Tory vote for the first time ever.'kle4 said:
A lot of people won't know the current situation (I didn't until today). There is a possibility tMikeL said:
I'm completely baffled - everyone's inheritance is already at risk to residential care home fees - down to just £23k. Now £100k will be protected.Clown_Car_HQ said:How do PBers who expect to receive a substantial inheritance and don't want to lose any of it to care home expenses think the costs of care should be funded?
By the way, I object to the view of some on this site that anyone who doesn't own a home outright by the time they retire is by definition feckless, useless and lazy. The people who provide frontline care to other people's parents in care homes are unlikely to earn the type of money that would allow them to ever own £500k+ homes.
I agree that the presentation of this policy has been mishandled but there seems to be a lot of wilful misunderstanding and/or ignorance about care funding on this site.
I looked after my father in my own home in the early stages of his vascular dementia but it got to the point where I could no longer look after him safely at home and had to look at the options for residential care.
As for in-home care costs - how much are they likely to be - the Council popping in for 15 mins twice a day - the cost will be absolute peanuts compared to the value of the home.
And anyone remotely wealthy will surely be using a private care agency anyway.
Is it really the case that there are lots of people sitting in homes worth £300k / £400k / £500k and they are relying on Council care for 15 mins twice a day?
Surely they'll end up paying anyway by going to a private care agency for a decent service to suit their needs. If they don't have the income to pay for it then they'll do an equity release. The care cost will be peanuts in comparison to the value of their home.
These overreacting Tories are pushing me closer every minute to a Tory vote for the first time ever.
I thought your advice was 'laugh and move on'?
And I meant general Tory reaction, not merely PB Tory reaction.
The key is not to take politics too seriously, while simultaneously being far too interested and taking it too seriously. Tough line.0 -
Sandpit said:Yorkcity said:
I remember the 70 and 80's all to well.kyf_100 said:
But Corbyn thinks that property is basically theft, and that we should all just accept what the council gives us. Let's all remember what the alternative looks like for a minute, my parents' generation can certainly remember it.Sean_F said:
Excellent post .I live in York a small three bed semi detached is ,220 to ,250 k.Any threat to that in any way is scary in some cases more than Corbyn.kyf_100 said:
I must confess I had to look orthagonal up!viewcode said:
Fair point. My point, which was orthogonal to yours instead of rebuttal, is that house prices have changed a lot over the past years.
I guess the received wisdom on here is that the people who hate the "dementia tax" are the well n the lie of 'cradle to grave' in exchange for a life of taxation and to find that they are suddenly expected to give up 50-90% of their assets to pay for their medical bills, leaving their kids in a not much better position than they started out in themselves.
They are the savers and the small c conservative penny pinchers, and they will have friends and acquaintances who have lived more recklessly and will have 100k or less who will still be covered and they will look at this policy and go "that's the Tories for you, you can't win with them, they just aren't for people like you or me".
You may argue "oh, but you were potentially going to lose everyting down to your last 23k before" but the fact is most people don't read the fine print, they just hear DEMENTIA TAX which is like winning the reverse-lottery on top of an already terrifying and dehumanising condition.
This is an utter turkey, a vote loser of the highest order. And it's a vote loser where the Tories need it most - with older, lower middle class voters whose main asset is their house.
Getting on a bus to go down to Peckham to play games with the South London Warlords and the rubbish piled up on the common.
My mate getting done over by pickets.
Nah, not for me thanks.0 -
Remarkably the Con share rather than lead is stiĺl holding up at a rate better than either Blair or Thatcher got. Who is the psephologist that was always quoted here many years ago saying look at the share rather than the lead.
The change in lead is from Labour attracting more and more not the Tories falling.
Labour under Corbyn doing much better than Miliband and the Tories doing much better under May than either Blair or Thatcher got just doesn't smell right to me. Something is wrong here.0 -
They are in LibDem/Tory marginals. But there are relatively few of these so the effect doesn't show up in LibDem national share numbers. I suspect in Labour/Tory marginals, LibDems are moving heavily to Labour and that does show up in the national numbers.Richard_Nabavi said:
Third party squeeze is right, and was of course happening before the latest hysteria. It's an oddity, certainly. You can see why nutty Green extreme lefties might head Corbynwards, but why aren't the LibDems benefiting from sane Labour supporters moving their way? It's mysterious.Pulpstar said:
I'm going weak and wibbly with Corbyn going within 9 points. The third party squeeze is well and truly on in the East Midlands nowRichard_Nabavi said:Evening all, and what an amusing evening.
Executive summary: everyone now agrees that Cameron and Osborne weren't so bad at this politics malarkey after all, right?0 -
And how much is the average in-home care cost?bigjohnowls said:
80% of people receiving Social Care do not receive residential care. They get care at home. There home was 100% safe till Thursday.HYUFD said:
Your house was already taken if you had residential care and you were left with just £23k now you get £100k and Osborne took your house out of Inheritance tax for everyone with a property worth less than £1 millionSeanT said:I actually wonder if the Tories could fall further if this meme takes hold. THE TORIES WILL TAKE YOUR HOUSE.
It threatens everyone, the old, the young, the middle class, the respectable working class. Blindingly, rhapsodically stupid.
They surely have no choice but to reverse and rethink. Whatever the intricate merits of the policy in itself (and they are arguable) it stinks from the start. It REEKS. It is the durian of manifesto commitments. Sure, it might taste good in the end, but it smells of overflowing toilets.
30 mins per day @ approx £10 per hour would be approx £5 per day or just under £2k per year.
Compared to a home worth £200k / £300k / £400k etc.
It's absolutely laughable.0 -
On Social care I can see that being the case, particularly if it unravels a bit, but Pensions Lock and WFA both seem good policies to me, particularly the former, and although the latter has caused plenty of comment, neither have caused as much of a stink, so it seems part of a deliberate policy decision to make these choices which hit the elderly vote, because there's no better time for them to do so.glw said:
I think you are discounting the possibility that it really is a combination of both bad policies and politics.kle4 said:WFA, Pensions Triple Lock and Social Care - the Tories actively decided to upset some of their core elderly vote. Now, people are not irrational, and there will be plenty of non-stupid people around May and co, so you have to assume they knew each of those policies will be unpopular with that group.
So they must assume the rest of the offer, including leadership, will be popular enough to overcome that, and that it is a good idea for governance to announce these things now rather than hide them, or they think it will be popular enough with others to make up for it. It simply makes no sense otherwise, as they'd not assume these would be popular with that core vote.
Now, do people dislike Corbyn enough to ensure May still wins comfortably? It would appear so, but perhaps they miscalculated how much people dislike Corbyn, and so it has caused more of an issue that they thought. Nevertheless, they knew it was going to be unpopular and included it anyway, and if we think it a good policy, that honesty should be applauded even if the presentation is bad. If it is a bad policy, obviously it was a foolish move.0 -
I'm afraid your encouraging estimate of Labour seats is starting to look a shade undercooked - good for my betting, but otherwise not so good at all. No longer win/win I'm afraid.Richard_Nabavi said:Peter_the_Punter said:
If it's any consolation, Richard, this sane Labour voter moved that way today. Ballot paper in the post.Richard_Nabavi said:
Third party squeeze is right, and was of course happening before the latest hysteria. It's an oddity, certainly. You can see why nutty Green extreme lefties might head Corbynwards, but why aren't the LibDems benefiting from sane Labour supporters moving their way? It's mysterious.Pulpstar said:
I'm going weak and wibbly with Corbyn going within 9 points. The third party squeeze is well and truly on in the East Midlands nowRichard_Nabavi said:Evening all, and what an amusing evening.
Executive summary: everyone now agrees that Cameron and Osborne weren't so bad at this politics malarkey after all, right?
We do agree I'm sane, no?
0 -
It's not a matter of whether or not Corbyn is attractive to non-voters. It's a matter of whether the non-voters become voters on June 8th.Alistair said:
It is why I am predicting huuuge polling miss.chestnut said:For anyone getting enthusiastic about Labour , a quarter of their 34% on Survation is made up of 'Others/Did Not Votes.'
OTOH one of Corbyn's seeking points was he would explictly attract DNVs sooooo maybe?
Non-voters are called non-voters for a reason. They don't vote. There's no particular reason to suppose that most of them won't continue in their habit of not voting. Saying you'll vote in a survey and actually dragging yourself down the polling station when you've had a long day at work and the baby's just been sick down your pullover and there's dinner to be got ready and there's something good on the telly tonight and the polling station's a mile down the road and it's pissing it down outside and you're feeling tired and your back's hurting and that Mrs May isn't so bad really and your vote won't change the outcome and they're all the same and voting never makes any difference to anything really and do you really want to bother after all is a different matter.0 -
Plenty of Tory bedwetting on here tonight. Just the same as at this stage in 2015.
The polls were always going to tighten from the absurd 25%+ leads of a few weeks ago. They generally do in election campaigns, even in 1997. It was ever thus.
Wake me up on 9th June when the same bedwetters are pulling an all-nighter on here and cracking open the bubbly and waxing lyrical about mother Theresa.
Night all.0 -
I think the U-turn will be on WFA for the North. They won't do it on this, but they will make WFA universal in the North based in some climate data or other.rottenborough said:
Too late. It is over. She will need to retract the whole thing by Wednesday imho. And give some waffle about a thorough review of the whole thing etc etc.ThreeQuidder said:
And she has the Brillo interview on Monday.Sandpit said:
Yep, and she needs to get every Tory doing TV and radio tomorrow to be properly briefed and defend it to the hilt.AndyJS said:
Totally disagree. She needs to stick to the policies and dare all those rich, selfish homeowners in the south of England to vote for Jeremy Corbyn.SeanT said:TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.
Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.0 -
Possiblly a sensible policy but absolutely shit politics. TMay in contrast to the posh boys was supposed to understand provincial Tory sensibilities..
Hahaha.
Really disappointed. Leaving your house to your kids is an atavistic Con instinct and this drives a coach and horses through it. Disavow it tomorrow and sack the people resp0 -
I am saying this proposal is better than what exists at the moment for dementia sufferers who live in residential homes.
I say this from the experience of watching my mother decline & die from Parkison's dementia over 5 years in homes for which her family paid all the bills.
All I am asking you or kyf to do is explain what your policy is, and what it costs.
As far as I can tell, the view is that people like your mother should bear the brunt, and any changes should somehow be slipped through on the sly, post-election.
@SeanF
It is a horrible thing that old people, at their most vulnerable and fearful and ill, should pay for their care costs....
Why did we think its reasonable to save a premature, non sentient foetus months from delivery who will likely spend the rest of their life with profound, debilitating illness at full cost...but let someone who has worked and contributed all their life face financial ruin because they have drawn the dementia bullet??
We could either euthanise our oldies or collectively work out a fair system that cares for them...
If its a choice over resources....I'd personally euthanise the premature, horribly disabled babies first before they become aware of life before our oldies...but thats me...
0 -
Yes, and setting the WFP means test level a bit higher than pension credit. They're awful decisions for the integrity and intelligent running of the systems, but in terms of annilihating the opposition and placating the mood of the average person they might be worthwhile measures.RobD said:
What would your proposed tweak be? Increasing the exemption?chestnut said:
Tweak sensibly, win by 20.AndyJS said:The truth is the Tories will be secretly pleased about these recent polls showing a smaller lead because it means there won't be any complacency from their supporters on polling day, and it will help to keep turnout up as well.
The 80's Tory goverment were past masters at transitioning spending restraint in. No immediate hit, just slow but steady erosion by inflation.0 -
..onsible...0
-
Only from 2020.HYUFD said:
Through married couples allowance of £175 000 each added to the £325 000 threshold you get to a millionScrapheap_as_was said:
Re iht 1m = Only if you have kids and leave the house to them. it's 850k in total this year rising by 50k pa over next few yearsHYUFD said:
Your house was already taken if you had residential care and you were left with just £23k now you get £100k and Osborne took your house out of Inheritance tax for everyone with a property worth less than £1 millionSeanT said:I actually wonder if the Tories could fall further if this meme takes hold. THE TORIES WILL TAKE YOUR HOUSE.
It threatens everyone, the old, the young, the middle class, the respectable working class. Blindingly, rhapsodically stupid.
They surely have no choice but to reverse and rethink. Whatever the intricate merits of the policy in itself (and they are arguable) it stinks from the start. It REEKS. It is the durian of manifesto commitments. Sure, it might taste good in the end, but it smells of overflowing toilets.
It's actually an extra "homes allowance" but it's only £100k from April 2017. Rises by £25k per year until reaches £175k in April 2020.0 -
The only post manifesto poll has the Tories at 44 (-1) Survation later this evening I believe.rottenborough said:Kaboom!!!!
As predicted by me for the last two days constantly - Dementia Tax has cut through and is an utter clusterf****
ttps://twitter.com/fractallogic1/status/866051323053191170/photo/10 -
I don't think you should denigrate the 10% figure as being unrepresentative, actually - on the Nationwide house price calculator, that was also the return over the 30 year period from 1977 to 2017.viewcode said:
House prices *trebled* from 1995 to 2007. That's equivalent to a 10% return pa compound for twelve years in succession. Plus it's not taxed as profit, whereas your hypothetical share portfolio would attract tax.
Admittedly it's peak-to-trough, but it's illustrative: things really did change, and the distortion does affect things.0 -
A lot of people won't know the current situation (I didn't until today). There is a possibility that 'they will take your house' catches on, but if that is so, and the opposition push it, it will be cynical bullshit while they still haven't' explained how their own plan would work, while the Tories are trying to grasp the nettle. There may well be more complicated issues with their plans which are not part of why most people are objecting, so in fact the hysteria is doing a disservice even to scrutiny of this policy, as people react to what they think it is doing, not its true problems.
These overreacting Tories are pushing me closer every minute to a Tory vote for the first time ever.
'These overreacting Tories are pushing me closer every minute to a Tory vote for the first time ever.'
I thought your advice was 'laugh and move on'?
I also said consistency was for the boring (or something).
And I meant general Tory reaction, not merely PB Tory reaction.
Oh OK. Lol. I'm off to bed, I've had enough of all this excitement for one day.0 -
The Survation 46% was after the manifesto launches.foxinsoxuk said:
The surveys above preceed the social care furore.Sandpit said:
Which is why people hate politicians, much better to be honest and deal with something that's been kicked down the road for far too long.MaxPB said:
Who said say nothing? It would be easy to just put one or two lines in "we will seek to reform social care and fully fund it by the end of 2022".Richard_Tyndall said:
Its called honesty and it is rather refreshing. The bottom line is that it is the right thing to do and she has (quite rightly) calculated that she will win a good majority even if this one policy is initially unpopular.MaxPB said:
Who, other than a rubbish politician, launches a massive tax rise on old people with dementia in the middle of an election campaign. She didn't even prepare the ground by leaking something really horrible in advance. It's real amateur hour stuff.Charles said:
She's not. She's going to win a 50-60 seat majority (as I've been predicting from the start) and have a mandate to do some important stuff.MaxPB said:
Indeed, but we're not heading for a 100+ majority any more. 50+ is what we're looking at, this and the other moves have been Con -> Lab which means getting those direct swings required to make the Labour -> UKIP -> Con strategy work is going to be very tough.ThreeQuidder said:SeanT said:.
I've come to the conclusion that Theresa May is a rubbish politician. Which isn't exactly great news for the country heading into what is the most important 2-3 year post-war period.
The alternative would have been to say nothing and then introduce it afterwards with all the outrage about it not having been in the manifesto and how you can't trust the Tories.
Personally I think it is a masterstroke.
That's literally all they needed and they could have just kept the plans secret until after the election.
After all this furore we're still on 46%, maybe the people can cope with the occasional dose of honesty.
Jezza has been running a much slicker campaign than tyhe Tories. Jezza is Trump, full of ridiculous unsustainable policies, campaigning at rallies rather than conventionally. May is Hillary, sneering at tbe deplorables and with a whiff of entitlement. Voters dont like being taken for granted.
I'd say it was the Islingtonites doing the sneering, Mrs May is aiming squarely at Middle Britain.0 -
I'm expecting Sir Lytnon Crosby to deposit a clowder of cats on the table that is British politics given the recent polls0
-
foxinsoxuk said:
jezza ain't no trump. he makes trump seem like a political giant. jezza's a turnip and totally useless. and this ain't the usa the british are more savvy than the yanks and not so easily taken in by emotions and rallies . we're alllllrrrriiigghhhtSandpit said:
The surveys above preceed the social care furore.MaxPB said:
Which is why people hate politicians, much better to be honest and deal with something that's been kicked down the road for far too long.Richard_Tyndall said:
Who said say nothing? It would be easy to just put one or two lines in "we will seek to reform social care and fully fund it by the end of 2022".MaxPB said:
Its called honesty and it is rather refreshing. The bottom line is that it is the right thing to do and she has (quite rightly) calculated that she will win a good majority even if this one policy is initially unpopular.Charles said:
Who, other than a rubbish politician, launches a massive tax rise on old people with dementia in the middle of an election campaign. She didn't even prepare the ground by leaking something really horrible in advance. It's real amateur hour stuff.MaxPB said:
Indeed, but we're not heading for a 100+ majority any more. 50+ is what we're looking at, this and the other moves have been Con -> Lab which means getting those direct swings required to make the Labour -> UKIP -> Con strategy work is going to be very toughThreeQuidder said:
Sean, grow a pair. This Tory panic is getting fucking tedious. It happens every election at about three weeks out because the media are desperate for a story so they want the favourite to stumble.SeanT said:TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.
Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.
The alternative would have been to say nothing and then introduce it afterwards with all the outrage about it not having been in the manifesto and how you can't trust the Tories.
Personally I think it is a masterstroke.
That's literally all they needed and they could have just kept the plans secret until after the election.
After all this furore we're still on 46%, maybe the people can cope with the occasional dose of honesty.
Jezza has been running a much slicker campaign than tyhe Tories. Jezza is Trump, full of ridiculous unsustainable policies, campaigning at rallies rather than conventionally. May is Hillary, sneering at tbe deplorables and with a whiff of entitlement. Voters dont like being taken for granted.0 -
Survation is 46/34. Fieldwork Fri/Sat.SimonStClare said:
The only post manifesto poll has the Tories at 44 (-1) Survation later this evening I believe.rottenborough said:Kaboom!!!!
As predicted by me for the last two days constantly - Dementia Tax has cut through and is an utter clusterf****
ttps://twitter.com/fractallogic1/status/866051323053191170/photo/10 -
Christ on a crutchPulpstar said:
I can't believe it. Schoolboy error from the Tories. Fucking dementia. Literally more terrifying than AIDS and they're on the wrong side of it.SeanT said:
Indeed. She hasn't. Until this flailing mistake.
How the fuck are they on the wrong side of it if they let you keep more money.
There are things you could say about the proposal , but this line is an utter bollocks lie.
I repeat again before this change we could have kept 23K out of mother in laws estate - post change it would be 100k.
How is that bad?
Again - I repeat there are other things that could be argued about it, the dementia thing whilst catchy is an out and out lie.0 -
What makes you think Labour will have a sane Leader in 2022?SeanT said:
That's my reading.MaxPB said:
No, I think we'll still get a 50-60 seat majotity, but 2022 will be really tough as Labour won't be too far behind and a sane leader will destroy Theresa.glw said:
Never mind 2022.MaxPB said:The 2022 election is going to be very tough unless we somehow bring the discussion back to Brexit and turn Theresa back into "Mrs Brexit - the patriotic choice" or whatever it was.
The 2017 election is going to be very tough unless we somehow bring the discussion back to Brexit and turn Theresa back into "Mrs Brexit - the patriotic choice" or whatever it was.
Labour are going to talk about Dementia Tax and WFA nonstop until polling day. If the Tories gets dragged into this they will likely start losing vote share.0 -
What a difference two years makes. A Tory lead of 9 points at this stage of the last GE would have had the PB Tories jumping for joy.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting Sir Lytnon Crosby to deposit a clowder of cats on the table that is British politics given the recent polls
0 -
YouGov:
35% SUPPORT care changes
40% Oppose them
So not popular but hardly a huge vote loser either.0 -
Statistically has to happen at some point.Peter_the_Punter said:
What makes you think Labour will have a sane Leader in 2022?SeanT said:
That's my reading.MaxPB said:
No, I think we'll still get a 50-60 seat majotity, but 2022 will be really tough as Labour won't be too far behind and a sane leader will destroy Theresa.glw said:
Never mind 2022.MaxPB said:The 2022 election is going to be very tough unless we somehow bring the discussion back to Brexit and turn Theresa back into "Mrs Brexit - the patriotic choice" or whatever it was.
The 2017 election is going to be very tough unless we somehow bring the discussion back to Brexit and turn Theresa back into "Mrs Brexit - the patriotic choice" or whatever it was.
Labour are going to talk about Dementia Tax and WFA nonstop until polling day. If the Tories gets dragged into this they will likely start losing vote share.
(I kid, Ed M was sane, as are most Corbyn replacements, and he's merely very bad - despite the poll improvement, that;s down to the public)0 -
I give up - do you not understand what happens TODAYFattyBolger said:Possiblly a sensible policy but absolutely shit politics. TMay in contrast to the posh boys was supposed to understand provincial Tory sensibilities..
Hahaha.
Really disappointed. Leaving your house to your kids is an atavistic Con instinct and this drives a coach and horses through it. Disavow it tomorrow and sack the people resp0 -
Indeed. What is the core Tory philosophy? Last year: inheritance is good - saving for your children's future is worthy and a basic human instinct - we will cap lifetime care, as per Dilnot, at around £70-100K. This year: inheritance is not a basic human instinct, knowing where you stand is not important, you are on your own; it is right that people who have worked and saved and invested in their homes should pay for social care to a degree only limited by their assetsFattyBolger said:Possiblly a sensible policy but absolutely shit politics. TMay in contrast to the posh boys was supposed to understand provincial Tory sensibilities..
Hahaha.
Really disappointed. Leaving your house to your kids is an atavistic Con instinct and this drives a coach and horses through it. Disavow it tomorrow and sack the people resp
Discuss.
0 -
Drip, drip, drip. Hope it's the headline this time.Floater said:Lets all vote Corbyn
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/20/jeremy-corbyns-10-year-association-group-denies-holocaust/
What a guy.0 -
Weak and wobbly Saturday for me0
-
There's only space for one to be the headline.kle4 said:
On Social care I can see that being the case, particularly if it unravels a bit, but Pensions Lock and WFA both seem good policies to me, particularly the former, and although the latter has caused plenty of comment, neither have caused as much of a stink, so it seems part of a deliberate policy decision to make these choices which hit the elderly vote, because there's no better time for them to do so.glw said:
I think you are discounting the possibility that it really is a combination of both bad policies and politics.kle4 said:WFA, Pensions Triple Lock and Social Care - the Tories actively decided to upset some of their core elderly vote. Now, people are not irrational, and there will be plenty of non-stupid people around May and co, so you have to assume they knew each of those policies will be unpopular with that group.
So they must assume the rest of the offer, including leadership, will be popular enough to overcome that, and that it is a good idea for governance to announce these things now rather than hide them, or they think it will be popular enough with others to make up for it. It simply makes no sense otherwise, as they'd not assume these would be popular with that core vote.
Now, do people dislike Corbyn enough to ensure May still wins comfortably? It would appear so, but perhaps they miscalculated how much people dislike Corbyn, and so it has caused more of an issue that they thought. Nevertheless, they knew it was going to be unpopular and included it anyway, and if we think it a good policy, that honesty should be applauded even if the presentation is bad. If it is a bad policy, obviously it was a foolish move.
If May hadn't made care changes then triple lock / winter fuel would have been the headlines and everyone would be saying they were disastrous.0 -
Maybe a one to one debate with Jezza?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting Sir Lytnon Crosby to deposit a clowder of cats on the table that is British politics given the recent polls
0 -
I wish I'd seen that sooner!TheScreamingEagles said:
I tipped the Tories at 16/1 on here, and someone else tipped Labour at 25/1.kyf_100 said:
You can take both the 4/1 on Labour and the 8/1 on the Tories and still win.TheScreamingEagles said:
I say the Blue Meanies.Pulpstar said:
Who knows. My calculations say Labouranother_richard said:
Against who though ?Pulpstar said:200 deliveries or canvassing for Clegg next weekend still. He's still in desperate trouble
2015 results:
Liberal Democrat 22,215
Labour 19,862
Conservative 7,544
UKIP 3,575
If the Lib Dems really are polling at 7-8% and mostly from Labour switchers, that 4/1 looks fantastic, especially if you can stick a few quid on the Conservatives as well as an insurance bet.
Every Tory tactical for Clegg in 2015 I know has gone back to the blue meanies.
I don't know who's going to win this but it looks very unlikely that Clegg can hold on particularly as he was propped up by Con tactical voting last time.
I got on Con and Lab at £20 each this eve because I just can't see how Clegg withstands either the inevitable rise of Corbynmania or the return of Con tactical voters. Great tip.
0 -
0
-
Roll it into CWP but ease the threshold that triggers it, perhaps.MaxPB said:
I think the U-turn will be on WFA for the North. They won't do it on this, but they will make WFA universal in the North based in some climate data or other.rottenborough said:
Too late. It is over. She will need to retract the whole thing by Wednesday imho. And give some waffle about a thorough review of the whole thing etc etc.ThreeQuidder said:
And she has the Brillo interview on Monday.Sandpit said:
Yep, and she needs to get every Tory doing TV and radio tomorrow to be properly briefed and defend it to the hilt.AndyJS said:
Totally disagree. She needs to stick to the policies and dare all those rich, selfish homeowners in the south of England to vote for Jeremy Corbyn.SeanT said:TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.
Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.0 -
During the 2015 campaign according to reports Sir Lynton's private polls had the Tories on course to win a majority/or very close to winning a majority.tlg86 said:
What a difference two years makes. A Tory lead of 9 points at this stage of the last GE would have had the PB Tories jumping for joy.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting Sir Lytnon Crosby to deposit a clowder of cats on the table that is British politics given the recent polls
His final poll predicted 329 seats, only one short of the actual result.
We'd kill to see his private polling tonight.0 -
-
Actually this is something I really don't understand about the whole thing.glw said:
The Tories could have easily gone for something like a commission to look for bold solutions to social care, not announce a policy that obviously has some problems, and is easily caricatured for attack by opponents.
This is big, complex, super-expensive policy. You surely need big consultations, the engagement of policy wonks, a big chunk of civil servants, industry experts, the full works.
You don't knock this stuff out for rapid public consumption with working on the back of an unbranded green fag packet in the run-up to the election. Do you?
You certainly wouldn't expect a fully coherent, finalised policy to emerge this way.0 -
When you're having to explain the truth, you've already lost the narrative. "Thatcher, Thatcher, Milk Snatcher" was unfair, mendacious, and misleading to a great extent.Floater said:
Christ on a crutchPulpstar said:
I can't believe it. Schoolboy error from the Tories. Fucking dementia. Literally more terrifying than AIDS and they're on the wrong side of it.SeanT said:
Indeed. She hasn't. Until this flailing mistake.
How the fuck are they on the wrong side of it if they let you keep more money.
There are things you could say about the proposal , but this line is an utter bollocks lie.
I repeat again before this change we could have kept 23K out of mother in laws estate - post change it would be 100k.
How is that bad?
Again - I repeat there are other things that could be argued about it, the dementia thing whilst catchy is an out and out lie.
Didn't matter.
"Crisis, what crisis?" Was an outright lie.
"There's no such thing as society" was taken out of context to the extent that it almost was implied to mean the opposite of what it was intended to mean.
Again and again and again, when the narrative catches on, if you're behind the story, you've lost the story.
This was a wholly foreseeable narrative. Maybe if they'd prepared the ground by pushing the current situation first, it could have gone that way. But they didn't - a political blunder.0 -
Max
There is a school of thought that says she won't fight 2022, resigning after three years or so. She has Type 1 diabetes and will be 61 in October. Not my view, but there is that school of thought.0 -
Average Tory share in recent polls is about 45% or just over. That would be the highest share of the vote at any election since 1970.0
-
She would lose.tyson said:
Maybe a one to one debate with Jezza?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting Sir Lytnon Crosby to deposit a clowder of cats on the table that is British politics given the recent polls
0 -
I think Dr Fox of this parish subscribes to it. I think it applies more to seats than share of the vote to be fair. But I don't fancy the chances of the Lib Dems right now.Barnesian said:
I've never heard that theory. The sum of Labour share plus LibDem share is remarkably static, as is the sum of Tory plus UKIP share.tlg86 said:By the way, the theory that the Lib Dems do well when Labour do well is looking in tatters at the moment.
0 -
Which would be a bad but politically effective thing to do.MaxPB said:
I think the U-turn will be on WFA for the North. They won't do it on this, but they will make WFA universal in the North based in some climate data or other.rottenborough said:
Too late. It is over. She will need to retract the whole thing by Wednesday imho. And give some waffle about a thorough review of the whole thing etc etc.ThreeQuidder said:
And she has the Brillo interview on Monday.Sandpit said:
Yep, and she needs to get every Tory doing TV and radio tomorrow to be properly briefed and defend it to the hilt.AndyJS said:
Totally disagree. She needs to stick to the policies and dare all those rich, selfish homeowners in the south of England to vote for Jeremy Corbyn.SeanT said:TMay needs to come out TOMORROW and say OK this policy is utter shit, we've changed our minds.
Heaven help us. This ridiculous, stupid, clueless, myopic little woman is leading the Brexit negotiations.
Northerners would just love to think they were getting something that those in the South weren't.
Of course that might not go down to well in the South but there's more scope to take the political hit there.
0 -
One yuge positive, I'm guessing that's the end of dumb pundits rolling out the 'parking tanks on Corbyn's lawn' meme for the next 19 days.0
-
Nope, she can't win that debate, people would expect her to trounce Corbyn like Cao Cao was at the Battle of Red Cliffs.tyson said:
Maybe a one to one debate with Jezza?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting Sir Lytnon Crosby to deposit a clowder of cats on the table that is British politics given the recent polls
The expectations would mute any victory.0 -
"Your house was already taken if you had residential care "MikeL said:
And how much is the average in-home care cost?bigjohnowls said:
80% of people receiving Social Care do not receive residential care. They get care at home. There home was 100% safe till Thursday.HYUFD said:
Your house was already taken if you had residential care and you were left with just £23k now you get £100k and Osborne took your house out of Inheritance tax for everyone with a property worth less than £1 millionSeanT said:I actually wonder if the Tories could fall further if this meme takes hold. THE TORIES WILL TAKE YOUR HOUSE.
It threatens everyone, the old, the young, the middle class, the respectable working class. Blindingly, rhapsodically stupid.
They surely have no choice but to reverse and rethink. Whatever the intricate merits of the policy in itself (and they are arguable) it stinks from the start. It REEKS. It is the durian of manifesto commitments. Sure, it might taste good in the end, but it smells of overflowing toilets.
30 mins per day @ approx £10 per hour would be approx £5 per day or just under £2k per year.
Compared to a home worth £200k / £300k / £400k etc.
It's absolutely laughable.
No, it wasn't. Not necessarily. There was a lifetime cap - to be introduced in 2019/20. It was around £100K, I forget exactly what the final figure was going to be.
You can plan for that.
Now we are in lottery land, only a bad, sick, evil form of lottery, where if the finger points at you - well you could be paying out £400K or £500K. It's an horrendous form of wealth tax. I personally don't have a problem with wealth tax. I do have a problem with it only applying to people who get dementia or Parkinson's or MS.
0 -
You can plan for that.rottenborough said:
"Your house was already taken if you had residential care "MikeL said:
And how much is the average in-home care cost?bigjohnowls said:
80% of people receiving Social Care do not receive residential care. They get care at home. There home was 100% safe till Thursday.HYUFD said:
Your house was already taken if you had residential care and you were left with just £23k now you get £100k and Osborne took your house out of Inheritance tax for everyone with a property worth less than £1 millionSeanT said:I actually wonder if the Tories could fall further if this meme takes hold. THE TORIES WILL TAKE YOUR HOUSE.
It threatens everyone, the old, the young, the middle class, the respectable working class. Blindingly, rhapsodically stupid.
They surely have no choice but to reverse and rethink. Whatever the intricate merits of the policy in itself (and they are arguable) it stinks from the start. It REEKS. It is the durian of manifesto commitments. Sure, it might taste good in the end, but it smells of overflowing toilets.
30 mins per day @ approx £10 per hour would be approx £5 per day or just under £2k per year.
Compared to a home worth £200k / £300k / £400k etc.
It's absolutely laughable.
No, it wasn't. Not necessarily. There was a lifetime cap - to be introduced in 2019/20. It was around £100K, I forget exactly what the final figure was going to be.
Now we are in lottery land, only a bad, sick, evil form of lottery, where if the finger points at you - well you could be paying out £400K or £500K. It's an horrendous form of wealth tax. I personally don't have a problem with wealth tax. I do have a problem with it only applying to people who get dementia or Parkinson's or MS.
0 -
However, despite opposition to the proposals, the public are not convinced that the moniker some have placed on the policy – the “Dementia Tax” – is fair; 37% think it is fair to call the policy the “Dementia Tax”, compared to 39% who think it’s unfair. 'bobajobPB said:
http://survation.com/conservative-manifesto-poll/0 -
If Jack W's Arse hadn't fubared POTUS 2016 we might have seen....TheScreamingEagles said:
During the 2015 campaign according to reports Sir Lynton's private polls had the Tories on course to win a majority/or very close to winning a majority.tlg86 said:
What a difference two years makes. A Tory lead of 9 points at this stage of the last GE would have had the PB Tories jumping for joy.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting Sir Lytnon Crosby to deposit a clowder of cats on the table that is British politics given the recent polls
His final poll predicted 329 seats, only one short of the actual result.
We'd kill to see his private polling tonight.
0 -
-
Corbyn would win easily. May is rubbish at politics.tyson said:
Maybe a one to one debate with Jezza?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting Sir Lytnon Crosby to deposit a clowder of cats on the table that is British politics given the recent polls
0 -
Apparently not. Please explsin.Floater said:
I give up - do you not understand what happens TODAYFattyBolger said:Possiblly a sensible policy but absolutely shit politics. TMay in contrast to the posh boys was supposed to understand provincial Tory sensibilities..
Hahaha.
Really disappointed. Leaving your house to your kids is an atavistic Con instinct and this drives a coach and horses through it. Disavow it tomorrow and sack the people resp0 -
Might be received favourably? It's pretty certain to be IMO.Black_Rook said:
I very much doubt that anybody would be left homeless because of this policy. How many children of elderly parents in need of years of home care still live at home with said parents? And how many of those would be reduced to sleeping on a park bench with a substantial inheritance guaranteed at the end of that period? Zero.MaxPB said:Or say that "lunch won't be free, but we're not sure how much it will cost in the future". Don't say "lunch is going to leave your kids without an inheritance or possibly homeless if you live in the south east".
The kids would get their bag of cash and they wouldn't be reduced to penury, or anywhere close. And in the average household outside of Southern England, even for those who need a lot of expensive home care the *majority* of the value of their homes would be preserved.
This is a problem particularly for wealthy people and their heirs in the South, and will probably cause quite a lot of grumbling and whingeing and stick-banging and "but I paid my taxes!" and tut-tut-tutting. But swathes of Buckinghamshire and Surrey are not about to turn red. The one thing that's guaranteed to do their personal finances more harm than entering the home care lottery is opting for socialism - and even if some do throw a total wobblystrop and rebel, the Tories' majorities in these areas are so huge that they'll hold comfortably, even if (and it's a big if) the revolt of the wealthy homeowners is sufficient to cancel out the mass of ex-Ukippers stampeding in the other direction.
In less well-off regions of the country, the policy will be much less controversial. Indeed, getting the wealthy to cough up for their own care, rather than the general taxpayer, might actually be received favourably by some voters.0 -
But the lifetime cap had never actually been introduced.rottenborough said:
"Your house was already taken if you had residential care "MikeL said:
And how much is the average in-home care cost?bigjohnowls said:
80% of people receiving Social Care do not receive residential care. They get care at home. There home was 100% safe till Thursday.HYUFD said:
Your house was already taken if you had residential care and you were left with just £23k now you get £100k and Osborne took your house out of Inheritance tax for everyone with a property worth less than £1 millionSeanT said:I actually wonder if the Tories could fall further if this meme takes hold. THE TORIES WILL TAKE YOUR HOUSE.
It threatens everyone, the old, the young, the middle class, the respectable working class. Blindingly, rhapsodically stupid.
They surely have no choice but to reverse and rethink. Whatever the intricate merits of the policy in itself (and they are arguable) it stinks from the start. It REEKS. It is the durian of manifesto commitments. Sure, it might taste good in the end, but it smells of overflowing toilets.
30 mins per day @ approx £10 per hour would be approx £5 per day or just under £2k per year.
Compared to a home worth £200k / £300k / £400k etc.
It's absolutely laughable.
No, it wasn't. Not necessarily. There was a lifetime cap - to be introduced in 2019/20. It was around £100K, I forget exactly what the final figure was going to be.
You can plan for that.
Now we are in lottery land, only a bad, sick, evil form of lottery, where if the finger points at you - well you could be paying out £400K or £500K. It's an horrendous form of wealth tax. I personally don't have a problem with wealth tax. I do have a problem with it only applying to people who get dementia or Parkinson's or MS.
It had been proposed - but it had been dropped.
At no stage did it actually protect anyone.0 -
Oops, cheers MrD, it’s not in the header and back late from the pub so missed it.RobD said:
Survation is 46/34. Fieldwork Fri/Sat.SimonStClare said:
The only post manifesto poll has the Tories at 44 (-1) Survation later this evening I believe.rottenborough said:Kaboom!!!!
As predicted by me for the last two days constantly - Dementia Tax has cut through and is an utter clusterf****
ttps://twitter.com/fractallogic1/status/866051323053191170/photo/10 -
Yez, I have postulated that theory. It requires tactical voting.tlg86 said:
I think Dr Fox of this parish subscribes to it. I think it applies more to seats than share of the vote to be fair. But I don't fancy the chances of the Lib Dems right now.Barnesian said:
I've never heard that theory. The sum of Labour share plus LibDem share is remarkably static, as is the sum of Tory plus UKIP share.tlg86 said:By the way, the theory that the Lib Dems do well when Labour do well is looking in tatters at the moment.
I am getting more bullish on the LDs though. All this stuff is good for Lamb. Brexit is off the menu. No one cares. We are an Island and interested ininsular affairs.0 -
Turns out they weren't real tanks, but these tanksTheuniondivvie said:One yuge positive, I'm guessing that's the end of dumb pundits rolling out the 'parking tanks on Corbyn's lawn' meme for the next 19 days.
D-Day’s Parachuting Dummies and Inflatable Tanks
http://www.iwm.org.uk/history/d-day-s-parachuting-dummies-and-inflatable-tanks0 -
Whether fair or not, it has cut through like a knife through Lurpak in a heatwave. Paul Mason coined the phrase. The Mail on Sunday splash on it.HYUFD said:
However, despite opposition to the proposals, the public are not convinced that the moniker some have placed on the policy – the “Dementia Tax” – is fair; 37% think it is fair to call the policy the “Dementia Tax”, compared to 39% who think it’s unfair. 'bobajobPB said:
http://survation.com/conservative-manifesto-poll/0 -
I suspect we have delayed too long. The system is very close to breaking.MyBurningEars said:
Actually this is something I really don't understand about the whole thing.glw said:
The Tories could have easily gone for something like a commission to look for bold solutions to social care, not announce a policy that obviously has some problems, and is easily caricatured for attack by opponents.
This is big, complex, super-expensive policy. You surely need big consultations, the engagement of policy wonks, a big chunk of civil servants, industry experts, the full works.
You don't knock this stuff out for rapid public consumption with working on the back of an unbranded green fag packet in the run-up to the election. Do you?
You certainly wouldn't expect a fully coherent, finalised policy to emerge this way.
Councils are spending increasing fractions of their budgets on Social Care, and hence the cuts are falling elsewhere.
Care homes are shutting because the rate at which the councils pay for residential care (when they have to fork it out) is too low.
The whole care system needs fresh money urgently.
Probably not enough time for another commission to mull, and we’d end up with the same old fight anyhow because it ultimately comes to down to money -- & none wants to pay the massive bill that is coming.
I think Theresa has emerged with some credit (at least with me) from this depressing and dismaying mess.
0 -
At the moment you can be forced to sell your house when still alive and keep only £23k to bequeath.FattyBolger said:
Apparently not. Please explsin.Floater said:
I give up - do you not understand what happens TODAYFattyBolger said:Possiblly a sensible policy but absolutely shit politics. TMay in contrast to the posh boys was supposed to understand provincial Tory sensibilities..
Hahaha.
Really disappointed. Leaving your house to your kids is an atavistic Con instinct and this drives a coach and horses through it. Disavow it tomorrow and sack the people resp0 -
With that croaky Larry the Lamb's voice and the reliance on soundbites I doubt Aunty Theresa could come out on top of Dianne Abbot on a maths test......TheScreamingEagles said:
Nope, she can't win that debate, people would expect her to trounce Corbyn like Cao Cao was at the Battle of Red Cliffs.tyson said:
Maybe a one to one debate with Jezza?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting Sir Lytnon Crosby to deposit a clowder of cats on the table that is British politics given the recent polls
The expectations would mute any victory.
0 -
If Mrs May wins a majority of 150 odd on June 8th this thread's comments are going to be fun to review.0
-
JINACAWTHWBSTNPM - Jezza is not as crap as we thought he was but still not PM.foxinsoxuk said:
She would lose.tyson said:
Maybe a one to one debate with Jezza?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting Sir Lytnon Crosby to deposit a clowder of cats on the table that is British politics given the recent polls
0 -
I know the Mail on Sunday is slightly different to the Daily Mail .However if they both get on board with the dementia tax , May will change it and all her supporters on here will change with her.rottenborough said:0 -
Not in the header? There's a shock.SimonStClare said:
Oops, cheers MrD, it’s not in the header and back late from the pub so missed it.RobD said:
Survation is 46/34. Fieldwork Fri/Sat.SimonStClare said:
The only post manifesto poll has the Tories at 44 (-1) Survation later this evening I believe.rottenborough said:Kaboom!!!!
As predicted by me for the last two days constantly - Dementia Tax has cut through and is an utter clusterf****
ttps://twitter.com/fractallogic1/status/866051323053191170/photo/10 -
Survation gives the Tories a bigger lead in the Midlands than the South, in the Midlands the Tories are ahead 56% to 32%, in the South by 54% to 31%. In London the Tories lead 48% to 34% while in the North Labour lead 47% to 44% and in Wales by 47% to 41%. In Scotland the SNP are down to just 38% with the Tories on 27% and Labour on 25%
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Final-MoS-Poll-190517GOCH-1c0d1h7.pdf0 -
It's a panic Monday.........RobD said:
Survation is 46/34. Fieldwork Fri/Sat.SimonStClare said:
The only post manifesto poll has the Tories at 44 (-1) Survation later this evening I believe.rottenborough said:Kaboom!!!!
As predicted by me for the last two days constantly - Dementia Tax has cut through and is an utter clusterf****
ttps://twitter.com/fractallogic1/status/866051323053191170/photo/10 -
Andy_Cooke said:
When you're having to explain the truth, you've already lost the narrative. "Thatcher, Thatcher, Milk Snatcher" was unfair, mendacious, and misleading to a great extent.Floater said:
Christ on a crutchPulpstar said:
I can't believe it. Schoolboy error from the Tories. Fucking dementia. Literally more terrifying than AIDS and they're on the wrong side of it.SeanT said:
Indeed. She hasn't. Until this flailing mistake.
How the fuck are they on the wrong side of it if they let you keep more money.
There are things you could say about the proposal , but this line is an utter bollocks lie.
I repeat again before this change we could have kept 23K out of mother in laws estate - post change it would be 100k.
How is that bad?
Again - I repeat there are other things that could be argued about it, the dementia thing whilst catchy is an out and out lie.
Didn't matter.
"Crisis, what crisis?" Was an outright lie.
"There's no such thing as society" was taken out of context to the extent that it almost was implied to mean the opposite of what it was intended to mean.
Again and again and again, when the narrative catches on, if you're behind the story, you've lost the story.
This was a wholly foreseeable narrative. Maybe if they'd prepared the ground by pushing the current situation first, it could have gone that way. But they didn't - a political blunder.
0 -
"If you are explaining you are losing" ...someone saidAndy_Cooke said:
When you're having to explain the truth, you've already lost the narrative. "Thatcher, Thatcher, Milk Snatcher" was unfair, mendacious, and misleading to a great extent.Floater said:
Christ on a crutchPulpstar said:
I can't believe it. Schoolboy error from the Tories. Fucking dementia. Literally more terrifying than AIDS and they're on the wrong side of it.SeanT said:
Indeed. She hasn't. Until this flailing mistake.
How the fuck are they on the wrong side of it if they let you keep more money.
There are things you could say about the proposal , but this line is an utter bollocks lie.
I repeat again before this change we could have kept 23K out of mother in laws estate - post change it would be 100k.
How is that bad?
Again - I repeat there are other things that could be argued about it, the dementia thing whilst catchy is an out and out lie.
Didn't matter.
"Crisis, what crisis?" Was an outright lie.
"There's no such thing as society" was taken out of context to the extent that it almost was implied to mean the opposite of what it was intended to mean.
Again and again and again, when the narrative catches on, if you're behind the story, you've lost the story.
This was a wholly foreseeable narrative. Maybe if they'd prepared the ground by pushing the current situation first, it could have gone that way. But they didn't - a political blunder.0 -
Well i certainly subscribe to itbobajobPB said:Max
There is a school of thought that says she won't fight 2022, resigning after three years or so. She has Type 1 diabetes and will be 61 in October. Not my view, but there is that school of thought.
I offered Dr Fox £20 at evens that she will be gone by the end of the Party Conference 2020.
Happy to offer that to you0 -
For those worried about Mrs May handing Labour victory in 2022, us Tories ditch our poorly performing leaders PDQ, no fannying around like Labour do.0
-
But you miss the point of the question, Sean, and it's an entirely serious one.SeanT said:
My personal rule that every Labour leader must be worse than the last - a reliable political law ever since John Smith - must in the end come a cropper. Because it's hard to get worse than Jeremy Corbyn.Peter_the_Punter said:
What makes you think Labour will have a sane Leader in 2022?SeanT said:
That's my reading.MaxPB said:
No, I think we'll still get a 50-60 seat majotity, but 2022 will be really tough as Labour won't be too far behind and a sane leader will destroy Theresa.glw said:
Never mind 2022.MaxPB said:The 2022 election is going to be very tough unless we somehow bring the discussion back to Brexit and turn Theresa back into "Mrs Brexit - the patriotic choice" or whatever it was.
The 2017 election is going to be very tough unless we somehow bring the discussion back to Brexit and turn Theresa back into "Mrs Brexit - the patriotic choice" or whatever it was.
Labour are going to talk about Dementia Tax and WFA nonstop until polling day. If the Tories gets dragged into this they will likely start losing vote share.
Clive Lewis. Starmer. Thornberry. They're not great but they are just about electable as PMs; they are not obviously inferior to the wooden, nannying TMay.
It all depends on Brexit. And if TMay fucks that up, Labour will win in 2022. And after this election campaign, I am much less confident of TMay delivering a decent Brexit.
If Corbyn scores 35% at the GE, what are the chances of him standing down, or being stood down? Pretty close to zero I would say.
Personally I think he might survive on a much weaker performance than that, but 35% would surely make him bombproof, no? So it's starting to look like he will lead Labour into the 2022 election, yes?
Everybody happy?0 -
May is good at politics....she's PM after all and on course for a landslide......she's just a fucking inept speaker......bobajobPB said:
Corbyn would win easily. May is rubbish at politics.tyson said:
Maybe a one to one debate with Jezza?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting Sir Lytnon Crosby to deposit a clowder of cats on the table that is British politics given the recent polls
0 -
Spreadex midpoint now 389 - that's a majority of 130.TheScreamingEagles said:If Mrs May wins a majority of 150 odd on June 8th this thread's comments are going to be fun to review.
0 -
Jeez I really did time my sell correctly, as did I the buy.Sandpit said:
Spreadex midpoint now 389 - that's a majority of 130.TheScreamingEagles said:If Mrs May wins a majority of 150 odd on June 8th this thread's comments are going to be fun to review.
0 -
Sounds optimistic - she will still have done so if she had already, it's just a few are stalled from moving on to the next lawn as planned.Theuniondivvie said:One yuge positive, I'm guessing that's the end of dumb pundits rolling out the 'parking tanks on Corbyn's lawn' meme for the next 19 days.
0 -
I thought it was the Green, Caroline Lucas.bobajobPB said:
But be that as it may: these headlines are the ones they dreaded in Tory HQ. It has taken a couple of days for the jungle drums to start beating in middle england as people (journos) phone their mum and dads to see how it has gone down, but... here we are.0 -
Some of the wobbling is plain old-fashioned panic. Some of it is actually the product of "this is going too well, there has to be a catch" pessimism. I know I suffer from that.KentRising said:Plenty of Tory bedwetting on here tonight. Just the same as at this stage in 2015.
The polls were always going to tighten from the absurd 25%+ leads of a few weeks ago. They generally do in election campaigns, even in 1997. It was ever thus.
Wake me up on 9th June when the same bedwetters are pulling an all-nighter on here and cracking open the bubbly and waxing lyrical about mother Theresa.
Night all.
I've crunched the numbers, and I'm reasonably sure that at the end of all of this the Conservative margin of victory will be no less than 12%. Neither Labour nor Corbyn are popular enough to get much beyond a third of the vote, even after the third parties have been squeezed hard. The only way the gap narrows further is if there's a miraculous revival of the Lib Dems or Ukip, AND that this happens primarily off the back of defections from the Tories; the former seems highly unlikely, and the latter total fantasy.
Note that all the focus on and wailing over the Tory manifesto is largely predicated on the assumption that this is, in effect, a one-horse race. The Labour manifesto has been largely written off (by voters as well as pundits, if what's coming out of focus groups is to be believed) as "Vote Labour and get a free kitten." Nobody gives a flying fuck what anybody else's manifesto says.0 -
They'll run with it for a couple of days, but quickly go back to Corbyn if they think there's the slightest chance of him actually closing the gap.Yorkcity said:
I know the Mail on Sunday is slightly different to the Daily Mail .However if they both get on board with the dementia tax , May will change it and all her supporters on here will change with her.rottenborough said:0 -
Yes very true it is a great strength of the Conservative party.Corbyn will not be leader in 2022.However someone from his wing of the party could be.TheScreamingEagles said:For those worried about Mrs May handing Labour victory in 2022, us Tories ditch our poorly performing leaders PDQ, no fannying around like Labour do.
0 -
I'm gonna buy if it drops another half dozen, I think. But not for £40!TheScreamingEagles said:
Jeez I really did time my sell correctly, as did I the buy.Sandpit said:
Spreadex midpoint now 389 - that's a majority of 130.TheScreamingEagles said:If Mrs May wins a majority of 150 odd on June 8th this thread's comments are going to be fun to review.
0 -
My 'cut through' poll, as promised earlier, of family and close friends:
Totally against, panic, panic, going to switch vote from CON: 1
I trust May to do the right thing, she surely wont introduce a system that affects me and my disabled daughter: 1
Three or four votes to come on the phone tomorrow.0 -
Not sure it will be that much longer.Sandpit said:
Spreadex midpoint now 389 - that's a majority of 130.TheScreamingEagles said:If Mrs May wins a majority of 150 odd on June 8th this thread's comments are going to be fun to review.
0 -
On no definition is May poorly performing, she is scoring higher than any Tory leader has scored at a general election since 1970 even post manifesto and in Scotland is set to slash the SNP leadTheScreamingEagles said:For those worried about Mrs May handing Labour victory in 2022, us Tories ditch our poorly performing leaders PDQ, no fannying around like Labour do.
0 -
Was that first one you?rottenborough said:My 'cut through' poll, as promised earlier, of family and close friends:
Totally against, panic, panic, going to switch vote from CON: 1
I trust May to do the right thing, she surely wont introduce a system that affects me and my disabled daughter: 1
Three or four votes to come on the phone tomorrow. 0 -
They have papers to sell, they can't run a "nothing is happening" narrative. That's why the favourite always wobbles about 3 weeks before the election.Sandpit said:
They'll run with it for a couple of days, but quickly go back to Corbyn if they think there's the slightest chance of him actually closing the gap.Yorkcity said:
I know the Mail on Sunday is slightly different to the Daily Mail .However if they both get on board with the dementia tax , May will change it and all her supporters on here will change with her.rottenborough said:0 -
That's accurate.Floater said:
Our share capital of €3.4bn must be reimbursed on departure from the EU as non EU members can't be shareholders in the EIB unless they rewrite treaties.0
