politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Steve Fisher’s model finds betting markets more pro-CON and an
Comments
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Wibbly, wobbly the idea that the UK has an educated population. 33% Corbyn? He should get one vote and one vote only - Mrs Corbyn is obliged to vote for him. He shouldn't vote for himself, and the idea that anyone else might do so is ridiculous. Now of course people are an odd bunch, but 33%!Stark_Dawning said:Wibbly, wobbly Tory bottoms!
No, the Tories should be okay, but they need to avoid any more blunders like the care-for-elderly stuff. May and her underlings are clearly intellectually unequipped for difficult, highly sensitive politics. Yes, she was roundly mocked for only repeating 'strong and stable' ad nauseam, but in hindsight Lynton knew what he was doing and instructed her to do this for a reason.0 -
You are probably right.DavidL said:
Sam, UKIP is dead. Mourn and move on.isam said:If the Tories really are losing votes, the votes that we thought might mean unlikely gains in places like... Dagenham and Rainham, the Kippers might see their chances of a seat increase..
They cannot be 28/1 (b365) in D&R in my book. It could be a 3 way marginal0 -
Only 14.2%!Sunil_Prasannan said:Opinium pushes the Tory lead in ELBOW down to 14.2%!
Squeaky bum time?
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Opinium leader ratings:
T. May: 48 / 31
J. Corbyn: 27 / 45
T. Farron: 16 / 37
P. Nuttall: 10 / 46
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Hurrah (sort of) .... Millwall win the EFL 1 play-offs and are promoted to the Championship.0
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yep - my how we mourned it's tragic ending after all it's use in the run up to the big day in 2015.... BONG.RobD said:
Hm, I think that's trying too hard. Hasn't got the simplistic majesty of EICIPM.bigjohnowls said:
Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher bounce still to come.RobD said:
Single figures lead not out of the question.
Still think the planned IRA stuff will move polls back to May by polling day0 -
I have a feeling the pollsters are a bit clueless at the moment. That is why we are witnessing the re-emergence of the "herding". No one wants to be wrong- on their own.0
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I think some of it covered the manifesto, but probably only 1/4-1/3.SeanT said:For a sense of where the trend is going, that pre-Manifesto ORB poll, Baxtered with a twist of Scotch, gives a Tory majority of 64.
TMay would gain just 26 seats. Labour would be on 219.
And that was BEFORE Freeze-Bitch-Dementia-Gaffe0 -
A month ago it was 19.4%RobD said:
Only 14.2%!Sunil_Prasannan said:Opinium pushes the Tory lead in ELBOW down to 14.2%!
Squeaky bum time?
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I'd bet £50 at evens (2.0) if you want that her majority is 65 or more (the mid-point of your range).Jason said:
Corporal Jones is alive and kicking right here on PB.SeanT said:
It's so hard to say. I genuinely don't know after this week.peter_from_putney said:
So what's your latest prediction of the G.E. outcome?SeanT said:So when do we get the first polling proof that Theresa May's team is a busload of girning clowns?
I have a bad feelin' in me waters.
My head says the voters surely can't give Corbyn anything over 30 points, which means an easy 80-100 seat Tory majority (my original prediction). Maybe more.
My heart says Eeeek the Tories want old ladies in Berwick to die of hypothermia, and failing that dementia, so they can seize their houses, May's completely blown it, and will get a majority of 30-50, or less, rendering the whole election pointless and embarrassing.
These next polls will be the most crucial of the entire election campaign.
*exhibits a nervous twitch*
But I believe 40 would be plenty to get business through the HoC. Thatcher had that sort of majority in 1979.
She sacked Pym for warning of the dangers of large majorities, i.e. the 140 she got in 1983. After 1983, she gave the impression of power having gone to her head so I think Pym was right. If we must continue with FPTP, majorities should be limited. No idea how though.0 -
Well that was peak snap election bounce time.Sunil_Prasannan said:
A month ago it was 19.4%RobD said:
Only 14.2%!Sunil_Prasannan said:Opinium pushes the Tory lead in ELBOW down to 14.2%!
Squeaky bum time?0 -
Mr. Surbiton, you may well be right.
Turnout could also make things a bit skew-whiff.0 -
That's not surprising, PfP. The spread is so large that the prices are a bit sticky - kind of like a brick on a piece of elastic, it doesn't react on the first few tugs and then shoots forward.peter_from_putney said:The spread betting markets haven' moved on that Opinium poll.
Sporting's mid spreads are Tories 396 (majority 142), Labour 167.
Spreadex's mid spreads are Tories 395 (majority 140), Labour 167.
The Betfair seat and %age markets are a bit more sensitive, and I'm surprised to see that favorite band at 2/1 is still 25 to 30%. Since Labour are striking consistently above 30% now that looks out of line.
The Betfair Labour seats market looks similarly 'out of date'.0 -
The Tories panicked relentlessly in 1987, even when it was obvious they'd win big.SeanT said:
I am a ridiculous bipolar halfwit, of course, but any Tory-supporter or rightwinger who claims they aren't remotely nervous about the post-manifesto-polls is lying.Jason said:
Corporal Jones is alive and kicking right here on PB.SeanT said:
It's so hard to say. I genuinely don't know after this week.peter_from_putney said:
So what's your latest prediction of the G.E. outcome?SeanT said:So when do we get the first polling proof that Theresa May's team is a busload of girning clowns?
I have a bad feelin' in me waters.
My head says the voters surely can't give Corbyn anything over 30 points, which means an easy 80-100 seat Tory majority (my original prediction). Maybe more.
My heart says Eeeek the Tories want old ladies in Berwick to die of hypothermia, and failing that dementia, so they can seize their houses, May's completely blown it, and will get a majority of 30-50, or less, rendering the whole election pointless and embarrassing.
These next polls will be the most crucial of the entire election campaign.
*exhibits a nervous twitch*
We had a real vote 16 days ago. The Tories did better than any government has done since the Thirties.0 -
I think I prefer BJO'sSeanT said:For a sense of where the trend is going, that pre-Manifesto ORB poll, Baxtered with a twist of Scotch, gives a Tory majority of 64.
TMay would gain just 26 seats. Labour would be on 219.
And that poll was BEFORE Freeze-Bitch-Dementia-Duhh0 -
The problem is that if the Tories go full throttle on Corbyn now it might smack of panic. Labour could claim, with some plausibility, that the Tories have resorted to gutter politics because May's own failings have been exposed. I think the Tories should just keep schtum from now on and count the days.bigjohnowls said:
Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher bounce still to come.RobD said:
Single figures lead not out of the question.
Still think the planned IRA stuff will move polls back to May by polling day0 -
She would have gained 26 seats and 2 additional years to reach a resolution on Brexit with her own personal mandate. I think she will do better but actually the latter two points would justify this election.SeanT said:For a sense of where the trend is going, that pre-Manifesto ORB poll, Baxtered with a twist of Scotch, gives a Tory majority of 64.
TMay would gain just 26 seats. Labour would be on 219.
And that poll was BEFORE Freeze-Bitch-Dementia-Duhh0 -
Sean, if the polls do show further narrowing tonight, what will you do? Seriously, I'm worried about you. We all are.SeanT said:For a sense of where the trend is going, that pre-Manifesto ORB poll, Baxtered with a twist of Scotch, gives a Tory majority of 64.
TMay would gain just 26 seats. Labour would be on 219.
And that poll was BEFORE Freeze-Bitch-Dementia-Duhh0 -
At least TSE will stop calling her "unelected pound shop Gordo"DavidL said:
She would have gained 26 seats and 2 additional years to reach a resolution on Brexit with her own personal mandate. I think she will do better but actually the latter two points would justify this election.SeanT said:For a sense of where the trend is going, that pre-Manifesto ORB poll, Baxtered with a twist of Scotch, gives a Tory majority of 64.
TMay would gain just 26 seats. Labour would be on 219.
And that poll was BEFORE Freeze-Bitch-Dementia-Duhh 0 -
But Fisher DIDN'T forecast a Tory majority, far from it, he gave them only a pathetically meagre 6% chance of achieving a majority. Please can we stop perpetuating this falsehood.Jason said:
Could not agree more. This is why, when it comes to actually placing an 'X' in the relevant box, the public will give Corbyn the severe beating he so richly deserves. I don't get some of the panic here, even with the polls narrowing. None of those will mean a jot on June the 8th.DavidL said:I think Professor Fisher was predicting a Tory majority some months out for much the same reasons that Rodd did on here. Unfortunately, as the election approached, his predictions were based on the polling and models like Baxter which significantly underestimated both the total quantity of the Tory vote and its increased efficiency so by the election itself he was way out.
I don't know if he has been able to fix this. It will not be easy. Models need data and the data comes from the pollsters. If they are wrong the models are wrong.
Personally, I find the idea that Corbyn is going to get more votes than Miliband did quite unbelievable. Miliband was a clever dork with some interesting policy ideas (some of which the Tories have subsequently stolen) but severely lacking in leadership skills. Unless you compare him with Corbyn of course in which event we are looking at Wellingtonian levels of brilliance (as a general, not so much as a politician).
Corbyn is thick. He has hated this country for decades and supported almost anyone opposed to it or who wished it harm up to and including murderers. He disgusts me. I find those who think he is "nice" really quite deluded. He may be polite but so were many deluded, vicious and ultimately evil despots been in history.0 -
*stockpiles popcorn*Jason said:
Sean, if the polls do show further narrowing tonight, what will you do? Seriously, I'm worried about you. We all are.SeanT said:For a sense of where the trend is going, that pre-Manifesto ORB poll, Baxtered with a twist of Scotch, gives a Tory majority of 64.
TMay would gain just 26 seats. Labour would be on 219.
And that poll was BEFORE Freeze-Bitch-Dementia-Duhh0 -
MyBurningEars said:malcolmg said:
Or some lazy sod that has not worked a day and gamed the system gets it all free. It is a recipe for disaster , the rich as ever will avoid it , the feckless will get it free and teh poor sods in hte middle who toil all their life will pay over and over again
I reckon there's something in this, Malc, even for the right-winger. Copied and pasted FPT:
Since people are used to free healthcare I think that voters are going to see the distinction between e.g. dementia and cancer and the way we allocate the risks as essentially unfair.
...
I'm happy that the Tories have tried to grasp a nettle that has been repeatedly kicked (the mixed metaphor may work better as "replanted") into the long grass. And I agree with Mr Meeks that market-based insurance does does not seem to be the cure-all. But I do suspect the National Health & Care Service is the natural long-term direction of travel: not necessarily an optimal solution, but through all the meanders the political currents gently flow this way. Nor am I sure that the Tories should ultimately regret that. The requisite taxation may be despaired of, but it is at least consistent with the "striver's principle" - plenty of older blue-inclined voters dislike the idea of working and saving hard all their lives, to see it all eaten up by costs that the spendthrift or slouch next-door receives for free.
Moreover, if the stinking rich want to pay top dollar to stay in a de luxe care home away from the differently-stinking riff-raff then nobody's going to stop them, though I am not sure they should expect to be subsidised for it.
Also I got an interesting reply from @rural_voter which I think bears repetition:
Thing is that it is not free, I pay an absolute fortune in tax and NI and have done for over 40 years, currently thousands a month. I am paying through the nose and going to get zilch and have to pay for it again if needed. Far better I stick a huge wedge every month into a policy that covers me for real rather than being scammed for 40+ years and then told I am going to pay again.rural_voter said:If there's to be some payment for end of life care it's more sensible for individuals to pay the equivalent of an excess on an insurance policy. Except for offering to leave behind part of the house value, May is asking us to take on the 'tail risk'. She's been really badly-advised/she's mad (delete as applicable).
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I admire your confidence. I suspect the next epithet won't be any more generous.Sunil_Prasannan said:
At least TSE will stop calling her "unelected pound shop Gordo"DavidL said:
She would have gained 26 seats and 2 additional years to reach a resolution on Brexit with her own personal mandate. I think she will do better but actually the latter two points would justify this election.SeanT said:For a sense of where the trend is going, that pre-Manifesto ORB poll, Baxtered with a twist of Scotch, gives a Tory majority of 64.
TMay would gain just 26 seats. Labour would be on 219.
And that poll was BEFORE Freeze-Bitch-Dementia-Duhh0 -
http://www.keepcalm-o-matic.co.uk/p/scream-panic-and-run-around-in-circles/Jason said:
Sean, if the polls do show further narrowing tonight, what will you do? Seriously, I'm worried about you. We all are.SeanT said:For a sense of where the trend is going, that pre-Manifesto ORB poll, Baxtered with a twist of Scotch, gives a Tory majority of 64.
TMay would gain just 26 seats. Labour would be on 219.
And that poll was BEFORE Freeze-Bitch-Dementia-Duhh0 -
When third parties are squeezed out, First Past the Post should deliver a huge lead in seats for a 12% lead in votes.SeanT said:For a sense of where the trend is going, that pre-Manifesto ORB poll, Baxtered with a twist of Scotch, gives a Tory majority of 64.
TMay would gain just 26 seats. Labour would be on 219.
And that poll was BEFORE Freeze-Bitch-Dementia-Duhh0 -
Oh man this site is funnier than anything else on the internet. Nothing makes me laugh out loud so much so regularly.0
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I think "worried" is perhaps stretching it a bit. Slightly concerned maybe.RobD said:
*stockpiles popcorn*Jason said:
Sean, if the polls do show further narrowing tonight, what will you do? Seriously, I'm worried about you. We all are.SeanT said:For a sense of where the trend is going, that pre-Manifesto ORB poll, Baxtered with a twist of Scotch, gives a Tory majority of 64.
TMay would gain just 26 seats. Labour would be on 219.
And that poll was BEFORE Freeze-Bitch-Dementia-Duhh0 -
If registration is low Corbyn Lab is fooked.MikeL said:We really need ICM and ComRes who weight according to actual turnout by demographics last time - rather than trusting what people say re likelihood to vote.
I think this is a much better way of doing it - year after year young people say they'll vote and then don't - so why should we trust them this time.
Especially when reports suggest registration is low and the GE seems low key - low TV news ratings, no proper TV debates etc.
I have been involved in registering over 200 at JCP and local college.
Doesnt mean they will vote mind0 -
http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/entertainment/lydia-bright-ed-miliband-is-best-looking-party-leader-674527.htmlScrapheap_as_was said:
yep - my how we mourned it's tragic ending after all it's use in the run up to the big day in 2015.... BONG.RobD said:
Hm, I think that's trying too hard. Hasn't got the simplistic majesty of EICIPM.bigjohnowls said:
Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher bounce still to come.RobD said:
Single figures lead not out of the question.
Still think the planned IRA stuff will move polls back to May by polling day 0 -
Right?SeanT said:
Both are a bit lame, tbh. It's quite hard to sum up the dumb fucking clustershambles of those social care policies in one pithy phrase.Scrapheap_as_was said:
I think I prefer BJO'sSeanT said:For a sense of where the trend is going, that pre-Manifesto ORB poll, Baxtered with a twist of Scotch, gives a Tory majority of 64.
TMay would gain just 26 seats. Labour would be on 219.
And that poll was BEFORE Freeze-Bitch-Dementia-Duhh0 -
A proud, free born American bows for no man. They just curtsy.
https://twitter.com/Mikel_Jollett/status/865966746036879360
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BJWO's surely?Scrapheap_as_was said:
I think I prefer BJO'sSeanT said:For a sense of where the trend is going, that pre-Manifesto ORB poll, Baxtered with a twist of Scotch, gives a Tory majority of 64.
TMay would gain just 26 seats. Labour would be on 219.
And that poll was BEFORE Freeze-Bitch-Dementia-Duhh0 -
A manifesto pledge for Government and not for Xmas.SeanT said:
Both are a bit lame, tbh. It's quite hard to sum up the dumb fucking clustershambles of those social care policies in one pithy phrase.Scrapheap_as_was said:
I think I prefer BJO'sSeanT said:For a sense of where the trend is going, that pre-Manifesto ORB poll, Baxtered with a twist of Scotch, gives a Tory majority of 64.
TMay would gain just 26 seats. Labour would be on 219.
And that poll was BEFORE Freeze-Bitch-Dementia-Duhh0 -
FPT
Really?calum said:SCON & SLAB becoming a pair of one trick ponies
ROFLMAO
How many tricks can you list from this clip...
http://players.brightcove.net/2540076170001/NykPWQNal_default/index.html?videoId=51788274590010 -
"Look, man! I only need to know one thing: where they are!"RobD said:
Well that was peak snap election bounce time.Sunil_Prasannan said:
A month ago it was 19.4%RobD said:
Only 14.2%!Sunil_Prasannan said:Opinium pushes the Tory lead in ELBOW down to 14.2%!
Squeaky bum time?
[pretends to shoot an invisible target]0 -
The 1987 campaign was pretty poor, but it didn't affect the outcome.SeanT said:
Sure, but I don't recall the 1987 Tories doing anything as daft, in terms of announcements, as Dementia Taxing Yorkshire Biddies And Taking Their Coal Away.Sean_F said:
The Tories panicked relentlessly in 1987, even when it was obvious they'd win big.SeanT said:
I am a ridiculous bipolar halfwit, of course, but any Tory-supporter or rightwinger who claims they aren't remotely nervous about the post-manifesto-polls is lying.Jason said:
Corporal Jones is alive and kicking right here on PB.SeanT said:
It's so hard to say. I genuinely don't know after this week.peter_from_putney said:
So what's your latest prediction of the G.E. outcome?SeanT said:So when do we get the first polling proof that Theresa May's team is a busload of girning clowns?
I have a bad feelin' in me waters.
My head says the voters surely can't give Corbyn anything over 30 points, which means an easy 80-100 seat Tory majority (my original prediction). Maybe more.
My heart says Eeeek the Tories want old ladies in Berwick to die of hypothermia, and failing that dementia, so they can seize their houses, May's completely blown it, and will get a majority of 30-50, or less, rendering the whole election pointless and embarrassing.
These next polls will be the most crucial of the entire election campaign.
*exhibits a nervous twitch*
We had a real vote 16 days ago. The Tories did better than any government has done since the Thirties.
Such a ghastly clanger. A fart in the elevator of British electoral politics.
But you have a good point about the locals, of course.0 -
Mr. T, depends which bit of Yorkshire. Houses cost a fair bit more in Harrogate than Barnsley.
I'm not impressed by the policy, and have said as much quite a bit, but there is a chance it could actually thread the needle of annoying those whose votes May doesn't need whilst enticing/pleasing those whose votes she does.
My suspicion is it'll harm her campaign and cost a dozen or more seats. The issue is an important one, but the policy is not one I like.0 -
I had a good laugh at that one too.Scott_P said:FPT
Really?calum said:SCON & SLAB becoming a pair of one trick ponies
ROFLMAO
How many tricks can you list from this clip...
http://players.brightcove.net/2540076170001/NykPWQNal_default/index.html?videoId=51788274590010 -
I think SO had a good point on this - that the policy we end up seeing on the statute books may very well be different from the one proposed. At least it is now on the table.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. T, depends which bit of Yorkshire. Houses cost a fair bit more in Harrogate than Barnsley.
I'm not impressed by the policy, and have said as much quite a bit, but there is a chance it could actually thread the needle of annoying those whose votes May doesn't need whilst enticing/pleasing those whose votes she does.
My suspicion is it'll harm her campaign and cost a dozen or more seats. The issue is an important one, but the policy is not one I like.0 -
Honestly it's an echo chamber of Private Frasers. Funny though. Show a bit of bottle.0
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"I’ll always be a Corbynite. Jeremy was the best prime minister we never hadStark_Dawning said:
The problem is that if the Tories go full throttle on Corbyn now it might smack of panic. Labour could claim, with some plausibility, that the Tories have resorted to gutter politics because May's own failings have been exposed. I think the Tories should just keep schtum from now on and count the days.bigjohnowls said:
Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher bounce still to come.RobD said:
Single figures lead not out of the question.
Still think the planned IRA stuff will move polls back to May by polling day
"The rightwing smear against Jeremy Corbyn angered me. But his bravery and integrity in the face of it was an inspiration..."
...only kidding!
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I am still not sure how pollsters measure people who do not normally vote, but will vote this time - even as little as 2% of the electors.bigjohnowls said:
If registration is low Corbyn Lab is fooked.MikeL said:We really need ICM and ComRes who weight according to actual turnout by demographics last time - rather than trusting what people say re likelihood to vote.
I think this is a much better way of doing it - year after year young people say they'll vote and then don't - so why should we trust them this time.
Especially when reports suggest registration is low and the GE seems low key - low TV news ratings, no proper TV debates etc.
I have been involved in registering over 200 at JCP and local college.
Doesnt mean they will vote mind
Surely, they will not register to be in the panels.0 -
That's the Lefty Luvvie in your talking! Man up!SeanT said:
The only good thing about that announcement was the sense that TMay is prepared to tackle difficult issues. But it was the wrong policy announced at the wrong time in entirely the wrong way. And the winter fuel Scots thing will deeply annoy a lot of northerners - the voters TMay is relying on to take those heartland Labour seats.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. T, depends which bit of Yorkshire. Houses cost a fair bit more in Harrogate than Barnsley.
I'm not impressed by the policy, and have said as much quite a bit, but there is a chance it could actually thread the needle of annoying those whose votes May doesn't need whilst enticing/pleasing those whose votes she does.
My suspicion is it'll harm her campaign and cost a dozen or more seats. The issue is an important one, but the policy is not one I like.
Utterly Fatuous. Bunch of Clueless Pillocks.0 -
ORB on 29th April had it Tory 42% Labour 31% so the new ORB would see the Tories up 4% on that and Labour up 3%, so if anything a 0.5% move to the ToriesSeanT said:For a sense of where the trend is going, that pre-Manifesto ORB poll, Baxtered with a twist of Scotch, gives a Tory majority of 64.
TMay would gain just 26 seats. Labour would be on 219.
And that poll was BEFORE Freeze-Bitch-Dementia-Duhh
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/five-key-charts-show-people-will-vote-general-election-according/
The poll was also taken 17th-18th and manifesto launch was 18th so included 1 day of reaction
You are also ignoring regional swing, there is only a swing of 2% from Lab to Con in the South East and London and 0.5% in the South West, but 10% in the North East, 7% in the North West, 5.5% in Yorkshire and the Humber, 7% in the East Midlands, 7% in the West Midlands and 8% in Wales so even that 2.7% national swing would see a far bigger swing in the marginal rich North, Midlands and Wales
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/0 -
Corrected.Sunil_Prasannan said:
"I’ll always be a Corbynite. Jeremy was the best prime minister we never hadStark_Dawning said:
The problem is that if the Tories go full throttle on Corbyn now it might smack of panic. Labour could claim, with some plausibility, that the Tories have resorted to gutter politics because May's own failings have been exposed. I think the Tories should just keep schtum from now on and count the days.bigjohnowls said:
Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher bounce still to come.RobD said:
Single figures lead not out of the question.
Still think the planned IRA stuff will move polls back to May by polling day
"The rightwing smear against Jeremy Corbyn angered me. But his bravery and integrity in the face of it was an inspiration..."
...only kidding!
0 -
I raised the possibility the other day that Mrs May might actually prefer a majority of say 60-80 tan one of say 120-140. Margaret Thatcher sometimes struggled with a very large majority, which tends to foster devil-may-care rebellion amongst the back benchers. Although quite how one engineers a smaller majority is a most difficult one to fathom.
A majority of anything over 40ish is entirely bullet proof in terms of by-election losses/defections and therefore ensures a full 5 year term.0 -
FICWNBPM (Fisher is Crap will never be Polling Maestro)peter_from_putney said:
But Fisher DIDN'T forecast a Tory majority, far from it, he gave them only a pathetically meagre 6% chance of achieving a majority. Please can we stop perpetuating this falsehood.Jason said:
Could not agree more. This is why, when it comes to actually placing an 'X' in the relevant box, the public will give Corbyn the severe beating he so richly deserves. I don't get some of the panic here, even with the polls narrowing. None of those will mean a jot on June the 8th.DavidL said:I think Professor Fisher was predicting a Tory majority some months out for much the same reasons that Rodd did on here. Unfortunately, as the election approached, his predictions were based on the polling and models like Baxter which significantly underestimated both the total quantity of the Tory vote and its increased efficiency so by the election itself he was way out.
I don't know if he has been able to fix this. It will not be easy. Models need data and the data comes from the pollsters. If they are wrong the models are wrong.
Personally, I find the idea that Corbyn is going to get more votes than Miliband did quite unbelievable. Miliband was a clever dork with some interesting policy ideas (some of which the Tories have subsequently stolen) but severely lacking in leadership skills. Unless you compare him with Corbyn of course in which event we are looking at Wellingtonian levels of brilliance (as a general, not so much as a politician).
Corbyn is thick. He has hated this country for decades and supported almost anyone opposed to it or who wished it harm up to and including murderers. He disgusts me. I find those who think he is "nice" really quite deluded. He may be polite but so were many deluded, vicious and ultimately evil despots been in history.0 -
And it doesn't constrain them as much as a 'freebies for all' manifesto would.peter_from_putney said:I raised the possibility the other day that Mrs May might actually prefer a majority of say 60-80 tan one of say 120-140. Margaret Thatcher sometimes struggled with a very large majority, which tends to foster devil-may-care rebellion amongst the back benchers. Although quite how one engineers a smaller majority is a most difficult one to fathom.
A majority of anything over 40ish is entirely bullet proof in terms of by-election losses/defections and therefore ensures a full 5 year term.0 -
Is that the same way they were quietly confident last time about holding Gower and Morley and thought they would give the Tories a fright in Nuneaton?valleyboy said:
Labour is quietly confident of keeping Cardiff seats and giving N Cardiff Tory a fright.Jason said:
What are they in the marginal seats where elections are decided, though? Scotland? Wales?surbiton said:
Forget the averages. Labour are now on 35%.Andrew said:
I dunno, if you feed current averages (Con47.5, Lab31, LD9, UKIP 4.5, Green 2.5) into baxter, you get 391-178. Spreadex midpoints are at 396-167, so not a million miles away.kle4 said:The betting markets seem to be about what people think should happen, rather than believing what polls are telling us.....
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46% would be the biggest Tory voteshare since Heath in 1970, bigger than Thatcher, Cameron or Major ever gotSeanT said:And right on cue:
https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/865960319797010432
Hmm.0 -
Polls...
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Opinium Tonight (before the election was called)
The Right
Con 46 (+8)
UKIP 5 (-9)
The Left
Labour 33 (+4)
Lib Dems 7 (-1)
Greens 2 (-3)
That tells us where the vote is moving.
Labour romping it with the unemployed, the young, the do not votes and young C2DEs that pollsters can't find - every demographic that doesn't actually vote.0 -
Mr. T, some Northerners. I don't actually care about the Winter Fuel difference. Devolution means having different policies, or there's no point to it.
There was a top story in the Yorkshire Post, I think (don't read papers), about the Conservatives offering more money for Yorkshire than is provided by current 'EU' funding. That sort of thing flies below the national radar, but may go down well locally.
Mr. 195, whilst I agree the lead remains large, the direction of travel is clearly pro-Labour.
Mr. D, I agree, but the policy in the manifesto is the one that will influence voting.0 -
I hope you're right. I really do.Sunil_Prasannan said:
"Look, man! I only need to know one thing: where they are!"RobD said:
Well that was peak snap election bounce time.Sunil_Prasannan said:
A month ago it was 19.4%RobD said:
Only 14.2%!Sunil_Prasannan said:Opinium pushes the Tory lead in ELBOW down to 14.2%!
Squeaky bum time?
[pretends to shoot an invisible target]0 -
Why are you peddling regional swings until the 5th May when you are reporting national polls until the 18th May ?HYUFD said:
ORB on 29th April had it Tory 42% Labour 31% so the new ORB would see the Tories up 4% on that and Labour up 3%, so if anything a 0.5% move to the ToriesSeanT said:For a sense of where the trend is going, that pre-Manifesto ORB poll, Baxtered with a twist of Scotch, gives a Tory majority of 64.
TMay would gain just 26 seats. Labour would be on 219.
And that poll was BEFORE Freeze-Bitch-Dementia-Duhh
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/five-key-charts-show-people-will-vote-general-election-according/
The poll was also taken 17th-18th and manifesto launch was 18th so included 1 day of reaction
You are also ignoring regional swing, there is only a swing of 2% from Lab to Con in the South East and London and 0.5% in the South West, but 10% in the North East, 7% in the North West, 5.5% in Yorkshire and the Humber, 7% in the East Midlands, 7% in the West Midlands and 8% in Wales so even that 2.7% national swing would see a far bigger swing in the marginal rich North, Midlands and Wales
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
By the way, did Le Pen catch up with Macron in the end ? In both rounds.
0 -
It's a good job you had no plans to attend PB.com's pre-election drinks party BJO - it would have been handbags at dusk between yourself and OGH.bigjohnowls said:
FICWNBPM (Fisher is Crap will never be Polling Maestro)peter_from_putney said:
But Fisher DIDN'T forecast a Tory majority, far from it, he gave them only a pathetically meagre 6% chance of achieving a majority. Please can we stop perpetuating this falsehood.Jason said:
Could not agree more. This is why, when it comes to actually placing an 'X' in the relevant box, the public will give Corbyn the severe beating he so richly deserves. I don't get some of the panic here, even with the polls narrowing. None of those will mean a jot on June the 8th.DavidL said:I think Professor Fisher was predicting a Tory majority some months out for much the same reasons that Rodd did on here. Unfortunately, as the election approached, his predictions were based on the polling and models like Baxter which significantly underestimated both the total quantity of the Tory vote and its increased efficiency so by the election itself he was way out.
I don't know if he has been able to fix this. It will not be easy. Models need data and the data comes from the pollsters. If they are wrong the models are wrong.
Personally, I find the idea that Corbyn is going to get more votes than Miliband did quite unbelievable. Miliband was a clever dork with some interesting policy ideas (some of which the Tories have subsequently stolen) but severely lacking in leadership skills. Unless you compare him with Corbyn of course in which event we are looking at Wellingtonian levels of brilliance (as a general, not so much as a politician).
Corbyn is thick. He has hated this country for decades and supported almost anyone opposed to it or who wished it harm up to and including murderers. He disgusts me. I find those who think he is "nice" really quite deluded. He may be polite but so were many deluded, vicious and ultimately evil despots been in history.0 -
Trashing UNS has been a common theme here in the last few weeks.surbiton said:
Why are you peddling regional swings until the 5th May when you are reporting national polls until the 18th May ?HYUFD said:
ORB on 29th April had it Tory 42% Labour 31% so the new ORB would see the Tories up 4% on that and Labour up 3%, so if anything a 0.5% move to the ToriesSeanT said:For a sense of where the trend is going, that pre-Manifesto ORB poll, Baxtered with a twist of Scotch, gives a Tory majority of 64.
TMay would gain just 26 seats. Labour would be on 219.
And that poll was BEFORE Freeze-Bitch-Dementia-Duhh
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/five-key-charts-show-people-will-vote-general-election-according/
The poll was also taken 17th-18th and manifesto launch was 18th so included 1 day of reaction
You are also ignoring regional swing, there is only a swing of 2% from Lab to Con in the South East and London and 0.5% in the South West, but 10% in the North East, 7% in the North West, 5.5% in Yorkshire and the Humber, 7% in the East Midlands, 7% in the West Midlands and 8% in Wales so even that 2.7% national swing would see a far bigger swing in the marginal rich North, Midlands and Wales
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
By the way, did Le Pen catch up with Macron in the end ? In both rounds.0 -
They mostly vote at night. Mostly!Ishmael_Z said:
I hope you're right. I really do.Sunil_Prasannan said:
"Look, man! I only need to know one thing: where they are!"RobD said:
Well that was peak snap election bounce time.Sunil_Prasannan said:
A month ago it was 19.4%RobD said:
Only 14.2%!Sunil_Prasannan said:Opinium pushes the Tory lead in ELBOW down to 14.2%!
Squeaky bum time?
[pretends to shoot an invisible target]0 -
However the policy is a good one.SeanT said:
Sure, but I don't recall the 1987 Tories doing anything as daft, in terms of announcements, as Dementia Taxing Yorkshire Biddies And Taking Their Coal Away.Sean_F said:
The Tories panicked relentlessly in 1987, even when it was obvious they'd win big.SeanT said:
I am a ridiculous bipolar halfwit, of course, but any Tory-supporter or rightwinger who claims they aren't remotely nervous about the post-manifesto-polls is lying.Jason said:
Corporal Jones is alive and kicking right here on PB.SeanT said:
It's so hard to say. I genuinely don't know after this week.peter_from_putney said:
So what's your latest prediction of the G.E. outcome?SeanT said:So when do we get the first polling proof that Theresa May's team is a busload of girning clowns?
I have a bad feelin' in me waters.
My head says the voters surely can't give Corbyn anything over 30 points, which means an easy 80-100 seat Tory majority (my original prediction). Maybe more.
My heart says Eeeek the Tories want old ladies in Berwick to die of hypothermia, and failing that dementia, so they can seize their houses, May's completely blown it, and will get a majority of 30-50, or less, rendering the whole election pointless and embarrassing.
These next polls will be the most crucial of the entire election campaign.
*exhibits a nervous twitch*
We had a real vote 16 days ago. The Tories did better than any government has done since the Thirties.
Such a ghastly clanger. A fart in the elevator of British electoral politics.
But you have a good point about the locals, of course.
That doesn't of course mean it will play well - poll tax wasn't a bad policy after all.
I think they'll be fine though and have bet on 50%+ in a small way.0 -
STV for 600 seats, with the largest party getting a 50 seat bonus. It also means a government can bring in 50 people who can benefit a government, but dont have to be enobled first.rural_voter said:
I'd bet £50 at evens (2.0) if you want that her majority is 65 or more (the mid-point of your range).Jason said:
Corporal Jones is alive and kicking right here on PB.SeanT said:
It's so hard to say. I genuinely don't know after this week.peter_from_putney said:
So what's your latest prediction of the G.E. outcome?SeanT said:So when do we get the first polling proof that Theresa May's team is a busload of girning clowns?
I have a bad feelin' in me waters.
My head says the voters surely can't give Corbyn anything over 30 points, which means an easy 80-100 seat Tory majority (my original prediction). Maybe more.
My heart says Eeeek the Tories want old ladies in Berwick to die of hypothermia, and failing that dementia, so they can seize their houses, May's completely blown it, and will get a majority of 30-50, or less, rendering the whole election pointless and embarrassing.
These next polls will be the most crucial of the entire election campaign.
*exhibits a nervous twitch*
But I believe 40 would be plenty to get business through the HoC. Thatcher had that sort of majority in 1979.
She sacked Pym for warning of the dangers of large majorities, i.e. the 140 she got in 1983. After 1983, she gave the impression of power having gone to her head so I think Pym was right. If we must continue with FPTP, majorities should be limited. No idea how though.0 -
Ooh a new poll is out... Runaround NOW!SeanT said:
You have made 63 comments. You're new here.ab195 said:Honestly it's an echo chamber of Private Frasers. Funny though. Show a bit of bottle.
This is how we spend our PB days. Hyperventilating between polls. It entertains us.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKotW13Id0w0 -
FrancisUrquhart said:
Polls...
ain't it the truth... 0 -
Is there anyone who remembers it fondly. Vile and forced to drink it. I refused which annoyed the teachers as much as me as they had to sit there enjoying the Mexican stand off as their break disappeared.Sean_F said:
I remember school milk. And shudder.Ishmael_Z said:
The milk that got snatched was revolting, nicely warmed up to ambient by the time it got drunk at morning break, in 1/3 pint bottles with half the caps pecked through by nasty little birds.isam said:
Pound Shop Gordon Miliband, snatching Milk in skirt and heelsScrapheap_as_was said:
Oh dear.bigjohnowls said:
Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher not fully factored in yet.Sunil_Prasannan said:Blimey @ORB
This week's ELBOW should be "interesting"
0 -
would be the biggest vote share for any party since 1970. No one has got even 44% since then so whilst not impossible it does seem a little unlikely that the Tories will get that sort of score.HYUFD said:
46% would be the biggest Tory voteshare since Heath in 1970, bigger than Thatcher, Cameron or Major ever gotSeanT said:And right on cue:
https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/865960319797010432
Hmm.0 -
If those favorability ratings are anywhere near the actual result, which would be a little surprising given they add up to 101% and do not even include Sturgeon, I think Tim Farron would be a very happy man.MikeL said:Opinium leader ratings:
T. May: 48 / 31
J. Corbyn: 27 / 45
T. Farron: 16 / 37
P. Nuttall: 10 / 460 -
+1 All the forecasts were way out in 2015. The polls, less sopeter_from_putney said:
But Fisher DIDN'T forecast a Tory majority, far from it, he gave them only a pathetically meagre 6% chance of achieving a majority. Please can we stop perpetuating this falsehood.Jason said:
Could not agree more. This is why, when it comes to actually placing an 'X' in the relevant box, the public will give Corbyn the severe beating he so richly deserves. I don't get some of the panic here, even with the polls narrowing. None of those will mean a jot on June the 8th.DavidL said:I think Professor Fisher was predicting a Tory majority some months out for much the same reasons that Rodd did on here. Unfortunately, as the election approached, his predictions were based on the polling and models like Baxter which significantly underestimated both the total quantity of the Tory vote and its increased efficiency so by the election itself he was way out.
I don't know if he has been able to fix this. It will not be easy. Models need data and the data comes from the pollsters. If they are wrong the models are wrong.
Personally, I find the idea that Corbyn is going to get more votes than Miliband did quite unbelievable. Miliband was a clever dork with some interesting policy ideas (some of which the Tories have subsequently stolen) but severely lacking in leadership skills. Unless you compare him with Corbyn of course in which event we are looking at Wellingtonian levels of brilliance (as a general, not so much as a politician).
Corbyn is thick. He has hated this country for decades and supported almost anyone opposed to it or who wished it harm up to and including murderers. He disgusts me. I find those who think he is "nice" really quite deluded. He may be polite but so were many deluded, vicious and ultimately evil despots been in history.0 -
You always were an asshole, Sunil.Sunil_Prasannan said:
They mostly vote at night. Mostly!Ishmael_Z said:
I hope you're right. I really do.Sunil_Prasannan said:
"Look, man! I only need to know one thing: where they are!"RobD said:
Well that was peak snap election bounce time.Sunil_Prasannan said:
A month ago it was 19.4%RobD said:
Only 14.2%!Sunil_Prasannan said:Opinium pushes the Tory lead in ELBOW down to 14.2%!
Squeaky bum time?
[pretends to shoot an invisible target]0 -
Competition time!
One is a Kipper, one is a Kipper in a kilt.
Can you spot the differences?
https://twitter.com/murrayf00te/status/8658900014139105280 -
If polls narrow further surely the week coming up will be the time to play the Monarchy card.
Get a reporter to ask Corbyn whether he personally supports the Monarchy.
When he gives waffly answer "it's not policy / we're not campaigning on it" then press let fly.0 -
I posted an ORB poll from the same period as the yougov regional poll which was little different from the ORB poll tonight and ask President Hillary Clinton how important winning the national popular vote was to her victory rather than winning most states!surbiton said:
Why are you peddling regional swings until the 5th May when you are reporting national polls until the 18th May ?HYUFD said:
ORB on 29th April had it Tory 42% Labour 31% so the new ORB would see the Tories up 4% on that and Labour up 3%, so if anything a 0.5% move to the ToriesSeanT said:For a sense of where the trend is going, that pre-Manifesto ORB poll, Baxtered with a twist of Scotch, gives a Tory majority of 64.
TMay would gain just 26 seats. Labour would be on 219.
And that poll was BEFORE Freeze-Bitch-Dementia-Duhh
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/five-key-charts-show-people-will-vote-general-election-according/
The poll was also taken 17th-18th and manifesto launch was 18th so included 1 day of reaction
You are also ignoring regional swing, there is only a swing of 2% from Lab to Con in the South East and London and 0.5% in the South West, but 10% in the North East, 7% in the North West, 5.5% in Yorkshire and the Humber, 7% in the East Midlands, 7% in the West Midlands and 8% in Wales so even that 2.7% national swing would see a far bigger swing in the marginal rich North, Midlands and Wales
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
By the way, did Le Pen catch up with Macron in the end ? In both rounds.
Of course like the US and unlike France we have a FPTP system with no runoff where the winner is determined not by the national popular vote but on most seats won and of course in the regions and departements Le Pen did win most in the first round even if she lost the popular vote0 -
I think that's uncalled for.Ishmael_Z said:
You always were an asshole, Sunil.Sunil_Prasannan said:
They mostly vote at night. Mostly!Ishmael_Z said:
I hope you're right. I really do.Sunil_Prasannan said:
"Look, man! I only need to know one thing: where they are!"RobD said:
Well that was peak snap election bounce time.Sunil_Prasannan said:
A month ago it was 19.4%RobD said:
Only 14.2%!Sunil_Prasannan said:Opinium pushes the Tory lead in ELBOW down to 14.2%!
Squeaky bum time?
[pretends to shoot an invisible target]0 -
All the best kippers are Scottish. I thought everyone knew that!Scott_P said:Competition time!
One is a Kipper, one is a Kipper in a kilt.
Can you spot the differences?
https://twitter.com/murrayf00te/status/8658900014139105280 -
Well, as I keep saying this is an f*ing disaster for the Tories. It will get worse when they start to try and implement it and backbenchers actually focus on the details of a huge mass enforced, equity release scheme run by the City with good knows what charges and interest and hard luck stories.Sean_F said:
The 1987 campaign was pretty poor, but it didn't affect the outcome.SeanT said:
Sure, but I don't recall the 1987 Tories doing anything as daft, in terms of announcements, as Dementia Taxing Yorkshire Biddies And Taking Their Coal Away.Sean_F said:
The Tories panicked relentlessly in 1987, even when it was obvious they'd win big.SeanT said:
I am a ridiculous bipolar halfwit, of course, but any Tory-supporter or rightwinger who claims they aren't remotely nervous about the post-manifesto-polls is lying.Jason said:
Corporal Jones is alive and kicking right here on PB.SeanT said:
It's so hard to say. I genuinely don't know after this week.peter_from_putney said:
So what's your latest prediction of the G.E. outcome?SeanT said:So when do we get the first polling proof that Theresa May's team is a busload of girning clowns?
I have a bad feelin' in me waters.
My head says the voters surely can't give Corbyn anything over 30 points, which means an easy 80-100 seat Tory majority (my original prediction). Maybe more.
My heart says Eeeek the Tories want old ladies in Berwick to die of hypothermia, and failing that dementia, so they can seize their houses, May's completely blown it, and will get a majority of 30-50, or less, rendering the whole election pointless and embarrassing.
These next polls will be the most crucial of the entire election campaign.
*exhibits a nervous twitch*
We had a real vote 16 days ago. The Tories did better than any government has done since the Thirties.
Such a ghastly clanger. A fart in the elevator of British electoral politics.
But you have a good point about the locals, of course.
I suspect this will not do enough damage to swing the election. But it has been the one thing so far that could be called a potential 'game changer'.
My partner is incandescent as am I. How many others are?
0 -
That'd be the grenade before all the IRA A-bomb.MikeL said:If polls narrow further surely the week coming up will be the time to play the Monarchy card.
Get a reporter to ask Corbyn whether he personally supports the Monarchy.
When he gives waffly answer "it's not policy / we're not campaigning on it" then press let fly.0 -
Whoooshydoethur said:
If those favorability ratings are anywhere near the actual result, which would be a little surprising given they add up to 101% and do not even include Sturgeon, I think Tim Farron would be a very happy man.MikeL said:Opinium leader ratings:
T. May: 48 / 31
J. Corbyn: 27 / 45
T. Farron: 16 / 37
P. Nuttall: 10 / 46
The ratings for T May are 48 fav 31unfav 21 Dont Know
They only add up to 100 across not down0 -
-
-
Not entirely convinced by your Left/Right categorisation. I still think that within the LibDems, all those who might go to Corbyn have gone. Those who remain are the more right-leaning, those who would be truly appalled at the notion of Prime Minister Corbyn, and who might yet hold their nose and vote for the Tories in a wholly polarised election (as this seems to have become).chestnut said:Opinium Tonight (before the election was called)
The Right
Con 46 (+8)
UKIP 5 (-9)
The Left
Labour 33 (+4)
Lib Dems 7 (-1)
Greens 2 (-3)
That tells us where the vote is moving.
Labour romping it with the unemployed, the young, the do not votes and young C2DEs that pollsters can't find - every demographic that doesn't actually vote.0 -
I think they know that (given they said it would be surprising), they are just postulating how Tim would feel if those were somehow the results.bigjohnowls said:
Whoooshydoethur said:
If those favorability ratings are anywhere near the actual result, which would be a little surprising given they add up to 101% and do not even include Sturgeon, I think Tim Farron would be a very happy man.MikeL said:Opinium leader ratings:
T. May: 48 / 31
J. Corbyn: 27 / 45
T. Farron: 16 / 37
P. Nuttall: 10 / 46
The ratings for T May are 48 fav 31unfav 21 Dont Know
They only add up to 100 across not down0 -
Hmmm a Northerner was wearing it 6 months ago, a Jock todayScott_P said:Competition time!
One is a Kipper, one is a Kipper in a kilt.
Can you spot the differences?
https://twitter.com/murrayf00te/status/865890001413910528
Must've been fashionable in London in 20150 -
Not necessarily if you add the pre 2015 Labour voters who went UKIP in 2015 and are now backing May to the 37% of 2015 Tory votershoundtang said:
would be the biggest vote share for any party since 1970. No one has got even 44% since then so whilst not impossible it does seem a little unlikely that the Tories will get that sort of score.HYUFD said:
46% would be the biggest Tory voteshare since Heath in 1970, bigger than Thatcher, Cameron or Major ever gotSeanT said:And right on cue:
https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/865960319797010432
Hmm.0 -
There is a school of thought that leader favorability ratings come closer to predicting results than opinion polls do. Not sure I agree but it worked in 2015.bigjohnowls said:
Whoooshydoethur said:
If those favorability ratings are anywhere near the actual result, which would be a little surprising given they add up to 101% and do not even include Sturgeon, I think Tim Farron would be a very happy man.MikeL said:Opinium leader ratings:
T. May: 48 / 31
J. Corbyn: 27 / 45
T. Farron: 16 / 37
P. Nuttall: 10 / 46
The ratings for T May are 48 fav 31unfav 21 Dont Know
They only add up to 100 across not down
However, unless Sturgeon is included it's hard to see how much use that could be here.0 -
Has this been post already?
Corbyn, you're fired!
Former Labour peer Lord Sugar says he will vote for Theresa May in the General Election
Lord Sugar has thrown his support behind Theresa May ahead of the eleciton
Former Labour peer quit the party in 2015 over its lurch to the Left
He has torn into Mr Corbyn's leadership - branding him a lunatic
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4525058/Lord-Sugar-says-vote-Theresa-May.html#ixzz4hdehsbYS
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
Mike S0 -
*Strokes chin...*MarqueeMark said:
Not entirely convinced by your Left/Right categorisation. I still think that within the LibDems, all those who might go to Corbyn have gone. Those who remain are the more right-leaning, those who would be truly appalled at the notion of Prime Minister Corbyn, and who might yet hold their nose and vote for the Tories in a wholly polarised election (as this seems to have become).chestnut said:Opinium Tonight (before the election was called)
The Right
Con 46 (+8)
UKIP 5 (-9)
The Left
Labour 33 (+4)
Lib Dems 7 (-1)
Greens 2 (-3)
That tells us where the vote is moving.
Labour romping it with the unemployed, the young, the do not votes and young C2DEs that pollsters can't find - every demographic that doesn't actually vote.0 -
I certainly do , apart from a few odd occasions. Was most enjoyable.matt said:
Is there anyone who remembers it fondly. Vile and forced to drink it. I refused which annoyed the teachers as much as me as they had to sit there enjoying the Mexican stand off as their break disappeared.Sean_F said:
I remember school milk. And shudder.Ishmael_Z said:
The milk that got snatched was revolting, nicely warmed up to ambient by the time it got drunk at morning break, in 1/3 pint bottles with half the caps pecked through by nasty little birds.isam said:
Pound Shop Gordon Miliband, snatching Milk in skirt and heelsScrapheap_as_was said:
Oh dear.bigjohnowls said:
Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher not fully factored in yet.Sunil_Prasannan said:Blimey @ORB
This week's ELBOW should be "interesting"0 -
I refused to drink it from day onemalcolmg said:
I certainly do , apart from a few odd occasions. Was most enjoyable.matt said:
Is there anyone who remembers it fondly. Vile and forced to drink it. I refused which annoyed the teachers as much as me as they had to sit there enjoying the Mexican stand off as their break disappeared.Sean_F said:
I remember school milk. And shudder.Ishmael_Z said:
The milk that got snatched was revolting, nicely warmed up to ambient by the time it got drunk at morning break, in 1/3 pint bottles with half the caps pecked through by nasty little birds.isam said:
Pound Shop Gordon Miliband, snatching Milk in skirt and heelsScrapheap_as_was said:
Oh dear.bigjohnowls said:
Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher not fully factored in yet.Sunil_Prasannan said:Blimey @ORB
This week's ELBOW should be "interesting"0 -
Scott is a flounder Ydoethur, major differenceydoethur said:
All the best kippers are Scottish. I thought everyone knew that!Scott_P said:Competition time!
One is a Kipper, one is a Kipper in a kilt.
Can you spot the differences?
https://twitter.com/murrayf00te/status/8658900014139105280 -
Would love to see TSE's reaction if - if! - Tessy easily outpolls his heart-throb Dave on Election Day. Love it!houndtang said:
would be the biggest vote share for any party since 1970. No one has got even 44% since then so whilst not impossible it does seem a little unlikely that the Tories will get that sort of score.HYUFD said:
46% would be the biggest Tory voteshare since Heath in 1970, bigger than Thatcher, Cameron or Major ever gotSeanT said:And right on cue:
https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/865960319797010432
Hmm.0 -
-
Norstat had the one poll a few weeks ago. Zip since.SeanT said:So we're waiting for entirely post-manifesto YouGov tonight? That normally comes out around 10pm, or am I imagining it?
Any others? ICM?0 -
Seems that it might have been Frazer rather than Fraser anyway. I'd always imagined Frasier, but wikipedia has set me straight.malcolmg said:0 -
Yes,I pretty much agree.MarqueeMark said:
Not entirely convinced by your Left/Right categorisation. I still think that within the LibDems, all those who might go to Corbyn have gone. Those who remain are the more right-leaning, those who would be truly appalled at the notion of Prime Minister Corbyn, and who might yet hold their nose and vote for the Tories in a wholly polarised election (as this seems to have become).chestnut said:Opinium Tonight (before the election was called)
The Right
Con 46 (+8)
UKIP 5 (-9)
The Left
Labour 33 (+4)
Lib Dems 7 (-1)
Greens 2 (-3)
That tells us where the vote is moving.
Labour romping it with the unemployed, the young, the do not votes and young C2DEs that pollsters can't find - every demographic that doesn't actually vote.
My feeling is that 35% of the absolute ceiling of Corbynism and die hard Labour loyalty. I too can't see many Lib Dems who spurned the charms of Ed Miliband falling for Jezza.
May seems to have pleasantly surprised the soft-left/centre left in recent days.
The Greens though are nailed on Jezbollah. Their vote will move en masse - most of it in completely useless places.0 -
Ours came from real cows though, when everything was organicisam said:
I refused to drink it from day onemalcolmg said:
I certainly do , apart from a few odd occasions. Was most enjoyable.matt said:
Is there anyone who remembers it fondly. Vile and forced to drink it. I refused which annoyed the teachers as much as me as they had to sit there enjoying the Mexican stand off as their break disappeared.Sean_F said:
I remember school milk. And shudder.Ishmael_Z said:
The milk that got snatched was revolting, nicely warmed up to ambient by the time it got drunk at morning break, in 1/3 pint bottles with half the caps pecked through by nasty little birds.isam said:
Pound Shop Gordon Miliband, snatching Milk in skirt and heelsScrapheap_as_was said:
Oh dear.bigjohnowls said:
Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher not fully factored in yet.Sunil_Prasannan said:Blimey @ORB
This week's ELBOW should be "interesting"0 -
But Scotland is always freezing isn't it? So your milk would have been nice and cold. In sunny Sussex it was like drinking warm, liquid cheese.malcolmg said:
I certainly do , apart from a few odd occasions. Was most enjoyable.matt said:
Is there anyone who remembers it fondly. Vile and forced to drink it. I refused which annoyed the teachers as much as me as they had to sit there enjoying the Mexican stand off as their break disappeared.Sean_F said:
I remember school milk. And shudder.Ishmael_Z said:
The milk that got snatched was revolting, nicely warmed up to ambient by the time it got drunk at morning break, in 1/3 pint bottles with half the caps pecked through by nasty little birds.isam said:
Pound Shop Gordon Miliband, snatching Milk in skirt and heelsScrapheap_as_was said:
Oh dear.bigjohnowls said:
Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher not fully factored in yet.Sunil_Prasannan said:Blimey @ORB
This week's ELBOW should be "interesting"0 -
He's right - Labour are going to keep their three Cardiff seats and the swing in Cardiff North is likely to be below average.ydoethur said:
Is that the same way they were quietly confident last time about holding Gower and Morley and thought they would give the Tories a fright in Nuneaton?valleyboy said:
Labour is quietly confident of keeping Cardiff seats and giving N Cardiff Tory a fright.Jason said:
What are they in the marginal seats where elections are decided, though? Scotland? Wales?surbiton said:
Forget the averages. Labour are now on 35%.Andrew said:
I dunno, if you feed current averages (Con47.5, Lab31, LD9, UKIP 4.5, Green 2.5) into baxter, you get 391-178. Spreadex midpoints are at 396-167, so not a million miles away.kle4 said:The betting markets seem to be about what people think should happen, rather than believing what polls are telling us.....
The battleground seats in Wales are the north-east four, Ynys, Bridgend and the two Newports.
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I could be adversely affected. I have parents in their seventies. Dementia runs in my family. I may inherit less, and have less to pass on, due to these proposals. But, I'll still be well off. So, I don't see why I should be enraged.rottenborough said:
Well, as I keep saying this is an f*ing disaster for the Tories. It will get worse when they start to try and implement it and backbenchers actually focus on the details of a huge mass enforced, equity release scheme run by the City with good knows what charges and interest and hard luck stories.Sean_F said:
The 1987 campaign was pretty poor, but it didn't affect the outcome.SeanT said:
Sure, but I don't recall the 1987 Tories doing anything as daft, in terms of announcements, as Dementia Taxing Yorkshire Biddies And Taking Their Coal Away.Sean_F said:
The Tories panicked relentlessly in 1987, even when it was obvious they'd win big.SeanT said:
I am a ridiculous bipolar halfwit, of course, but any Tory-supporter or rightwinger who claims they aren't remotely nervous about the post-manifesto-polls is lying.Jason said:
Corporal Jones is alive and kicking right here on PB.SeanT said:
It's so hard to say. I genuinely don't know after this week.peter_from_putney said:
So what's your latest prediction of the G.E. outcome?SeanT said:So when do we get the first polling proof that Theresa May's team is a busload of girning clowns?
I have a bad feelin' in me waters.
My head says the voters surely can't give Corbyn anything over 30 points, which means an easy 80-100 seat Tory majority (my original prediction). Maybe more.
My heart says Eeeek the Tories want old ladies in Berwick to die of hypothermia, and failing that dementia, so they can seize their houses, May's completely blown it, and will get a majority of 30-50, or less, rendering the whole election pointless and embarrassing.
These next polls will be the most crucial of the entire election campaign.
*exhibits a nervous twitch*
We had a real vote 16 days ago. The Tories did better than any government has done since the Thirties.
Such a ghastly clanger. A fart in the elevator of British electoral politics.
But you have a good point about the locals, of course.
I suspect this will not do enough damage to swing the election. But it has been the one thing so far that could be called a potential 'game changer'.
My partner is incandescent as am I. How many others are?0 -
It usually takes a few days, often a week before events move the polls.SeanT said:So we're waiting for entirely post-manifesto YouGov tonight? That normally comes out around 10pm, or am I imagining it?
Any others? ICM?
No doubt that Labour is winning the campaign though. Jezza is in his element.
No undecideds are going to be shifted by the Tories going on about the IRA or Trident. The people bothered by these things decided ages ago.0
